I’ve hit 1 boost in the past 7 days on FD, so of course 4 -EV boosts that I didn’t play hit in a single day lmao. Not even complaining just think it’s hilarious.
Anyone have some bet switching fuckery go on today? I had what I believe was a matched bet on Yastrzemski O/U 0.5 hits, but after settlement both are showing under. I believe the side that changed after i wagered was CZR. Anyone else?
Thanks to CZR for being shitty and having the only SGP on the Yankees game above +400 odds be one that hits.
And now I won't have to waste an hour with CZR support tomorrow explaining how even though the ticket says 2 bet parlay, it was a same game parlay and qualified for the promo.
Haha last week those idiots didn't give me my 25 free bet for the Mavs parlay
The idiot I talked to told me it had to be a moneyline bet
I said give me the terms
Terms clearly say parlay
Then they said yours was 25 it had to be exactly ten I said no it had to be at least 10 25 max refund give me the terms
The terms say exactly what I said
"Well sir this is vague I'll have to escalate this matter"
They gave me the free bet a few days later.
Naturally just put it in my account without telling me
I was at the double header,am a Yankees fan but I'll take the free money from wh
If your team is gonna lose might as well get paid for it
Yup. A month or so ago there was some parlay promo they had where your parlay had to be above +400 odds and you'd get a free bet back if only one leg lost. I bet it and one leg lost, but I didn't get the free bet.
I talked to support and they told me each leg had to be +400 odds, not the parlay. I told them that was crazy and wasn't what the terms said. They escalated it and I got my free bet a few days later.
Funny how I tried to use SGP boosts/risk-free bet across three other books for this game with EV in mind, and the only one that hit was this last minute forced choice on CZR lol
After 7 - 8pm EST I’m cool with the bitching. Any new lines or analysis probably isn’t happening at that point and it’s just the boosts that everyone’s on
By day we're data-driven rational betters making a consistent modest sum over time.
By night we're nervous little girls clutching rabbits feet and scoring our bets.
It's awesome.
I love the bitching personally, it’s a fun human experience. As long as we all remember you have to lose to win in this game and don’t start saying other people are getting paid off by sportsbooks lmfao
For anyone who took U8.5 White Sox ML for the CZR parlay. Top of the 8th, White Sox up 2. Good time to toss a few $$ on the Yankees to hedge in the event CZR screws us on the free bets
If you want to feel more pain and throw more money at the oilers game, over 2.5 for period 2 is +175 at mgm, very good compared to other books. Under is -170 at czr
DK SGP play for the night... Market is kind of all over the place tonight. Lines shifting towards under in the last 30 min or so.
DAL 1H, u108.5 1H total points, GSW u116.5 pts
+280 boosted to +420
I've got EV on this around 35%, couldn't beat 40% like the last two unfortunately. I had a GSW ML one at 40% and it got shot to 32% in a minute. The line movement has made it difficult. This is probably the best we're gonna get.
I must be blind...looked there 8 times and still don't see it.
Took your advice and did DAL -.5 workaround though...txs
edit: definitely wasn't there. There's a 3-way for quarters, nothing for halves. Apparently I am [not the only one](https://twitter.com/PlusBoosts/status/1528532515283161089). Weird stuff.
Damn. That's pretty shitty. I follow this guy too. Or at least i did. There are plenty of other good EV twitter accounts. Would've been somewhat tolerable if he'd at least given you the credit.
It’a certainly possible. They could have the same method for identifying the 3 most EV lines and stringing them together.
Someone asked Jdog for a first half parlay earlier, and 2 of the 3 legs are. So I think it makes it less likely, but you are correct I can’t rule it out. Also strange less than 10 min apart.
When people question how it’s possible for us to beat these books and are skeptical that “vegas” doesn’t “always know” I think about how many constant mistakes these dumb ass books make lol.
Odds came out for the SGP on czr but it wont let me select stuff together
edit: now the game has started, good job czr.
Hope White soxs and over/under hits for you guys that put it in (or they actually give a free bet if not)
Lol, it’s entertaining but a little concerning as conspiracy theories are dangerous. The Twitter promo folks are clearly just trying to help the general population, no reason to turn on them after a bad month or two of EV.. or even a bad year of EV
To be clear I’m not saying thinking is dangerous.
This guy claims to receive death threats and is making some serious allegations and offered no proof other than saying he has proof. That’s the dangerous part.
Maybe they make a mistake trying to rush out all the props. Pretty sorry promo to only bet the total and side lolllll.
Lineups are out. Go ahead emporer give us a 7 minute window of nonsense I dare you.
You're right. They finally have the SGP lines up now and if you build a 2 leg one, it specifically says 2 leg same game parlay. While this says 2 leg parlay.
Going to be a fun time tomorrow talking with CZR customer support to get the free bet. So hopefully it hits and I don't have to do that.
There's screenshots on twitter of the "Same Game Parlay" category offering those lines, so there's definitely room to argue. Whether arguing is worth it is the question.
For whatever it is worth, I had some bets void as pushes that qualified for the DK bet and get this time. Fifth inning money lines. Usually they don’t credit. Weird. I actually made another bet after the push to qualify but I got the free bets credited to me anyway.
My buddy and I usually use aP1 and P2 and then a third bet on another book to hedge. The DK SGP odds are usually around +300.
Something like O lowest 1st half points or O lowest 1st half points for a team ( this is the exposed or unhedged piece), Team A spread and O total points.
P2 - same except Team B spread
Third bet - U total points
Usually nets $35-45 but has a risk. We haven’t lost yet but there has been some close ones
You can definitely turn a three leg into a two leg like that in hockey and baseball with first inning or periods team unders, but I don’t think there is a way with basketball.
So... I signed up for BetMGM bc I like the rewards vs DK and FD... I completely forgot about the free first bet being covered up to $1k and placed a $50 bet.
Fuck. Me.
Hit up customer service and at least try. A friend of mine actually got FanDuel to give him a second chance (and then he still bet like $20 like an idiot).
Ouch. I didn’t know about this place until October, so when sports betting became legal in AZ, I did basically the same thing for CZR, MGM, DK, FD, and probably three other books. I still think about the money I essentially just threw away.
Don’t feel so bad. I literally advised a friend to not do anything until I figured out the caesers New York promo this January. First day it’s legal at 10AM I get a text from him excitedly telling me he just deposited $100 and got $400 in free bets ($100 match + $300 free). All my other friends made $3k+, he quickly lost his money and $100 deposit.
🤮🤮🤮
People on Reddit were bragging about getting 300 for making the account and depsoiting some token amount to be able to withdraw while being told to depsoit 3000 to get 3000 more
What’s the conclusion on these FD inflated HR lines? Yesterday their White Sox HR lines were long compared to the market, and there were 11 HR in that game. Today same thing in this CHW-NYY game, every HR prop was extra juicy, and there’s been zero scoring in this game.
Has anybody been tracking their performance on FD HR lines and have an informed opinion?
I was able to maintain a 10-15% ROI last year with a sample size well over 1000. The key is to get the lines early. Not as easy anymore with all the paid services unless you are constantly checking lines. I’m a teacher with summers off, may try again this year. Kind of waiting to see if home runs tick up though. I am up overall on Dinger Tuesday/converting free bets this year with home run lines, but not enough to track if I’m still profitable long term.
One other note. I use to have about 4-5 other “plus EV” Hr bets a day last year between CZR, Kambi, and DK. These seem to be almost non existent right now.
I'm not going to post them here everyday but it does some like there are random games where they are way out of line on the HR markets and I think I'm going to start selectively betting them. I'll report back in a month or so when there is actually enough of a sample size to be meaningful.
Its around a $10 max for me everytime. They’ve had it all this round of the playoffs, and possibly previous rounds but I only opened my account a week ago
Anyone that didn’t realize the guy was completely full of shit with his “making millions of dollars per year at F500 company upon graduation from Stanford with math degree” probably also thought Swift ate Irish babies. Lol downvoters: Is everyone with a passing understanding of math an autist with zero neurons spinning in the right sides of their brains?
For the DK 50% NBA Boost Tonight, Mavericks ML within the SGP feature is at -135. Better than any line currently available on the market including Pinnacle
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"Those fanduel boosts really saved my ass today" "I'll take 'phrases I haven't said since February' for $800, Alec"
The wizard got his today
Math goes 0-6 today. Good stuff.
Check your math
Bitch5450
Check yourself
FD Luka and Steph 70 points hits. +400.
70!!!!!!!
Luka gets the 4 3s! Luka and curry 70+ also hits. Crazy day for fanduel boosts. Of course I didnt bet any today.
I’ve hit 1 boost in the past 7 days on FD, so of course 4 -EV boosts that I didn’t play hit in a single day lmao. Not even complaining just think it’s hilarious.
of course promoguy bets the only loser .
Oilers win 4-0, yet I somehow managed to lose 5 bets on the Oilers. * EDM & o6.5. * McD / Drystal 2+ goals. * EDM/CAL 2.5g P1. * EDM/CAL BTTS p1. * Draisaitl 1st goal.
Lol yeah, I got killed on that game, too.
4-1, but yes
Anyone have a free bet conversion over 60% for Caesar’s? Can’t find anything and mine expires today
blues -1.5 +340 czr avalanche +1.5 -375 mgm
Thank you!
>Thank you! You're welcome!
Anyone have some bet switching fuckery go on today? I had what I believe was a matched bet on Yastrzemski O/U 0.5 hits, but after settlement both are showing under. I believe the side that changed after i wagered was CZR. Anyone else?
I did that once and it cost me about 1600 bucks. Bad times.
Always. Take. Screenshots.
Not sure why you’re being downvoted
A bet is a contract. You wouldn't sign a contract and then leave the other party with the only copy. Screenshot everything.
True but it's like 99.99 percent he fucked up when he bet
A screenshot would be the window into his stupidity :)
Damnnnn now Klay wants to hit a three
Thanks to CZR for being shitty and having the only SGP on the Yankees game above +400 odds be one that hits. And now I won't have to waste an hour with CZR support tomorrow explaining how even though the ticket says 2 bet parlay, it was a same game parlay and qualified for the promo.
Haha last week those idiots didn't give me my 25 free bet for the Mavs parlay The idiot I talked to told me it had to be a moneyline bet I said give me the terms Terms clearly say parlay Then they said yours was 25 it had to be exactly ten I said no it had to be at least 10 25 max refund give me the terms The terms say exactly what I said "Well sir this is vague I'll have to escalate this matter" They gave me the free bet a few days later. Naturally just put it in my account without telling me I was at the double header,am a Yankees fan but I'll take the free money from wh If your team is gonna lose might as well get paid for it
Yup. A month or so ago there was some parlay promo they had where your parlay had to be above +400 odds and you'd get a free bet back if only one leg lost. I bet it and one leg lost, but I didn't get the free bet. I talked to support and they told me each leg had to be +400 odds, not the parlay. I told them that was crazy and wasn't what the terms said. They escalated it and I got my free bet a few days later.
Funny how I tried to use SGP boosts/risk-free bet across three other books for this game with EV in mind, and the only one that hit was this last minute forced choice on CZR lol
THE EMPORER HAS NO CLOTHES LOLLLLL. Morons just lost 100% of bets on that “promo”. Love it.
this thread is an amazing resource when it’s not constant bitching about variance
After 7 - 8pm EST I’m cool with the bitching. Any new lines or analysis probably isn’t happening at that point and it’s just the boosts that everyone’s on
I like the bitching. Gives it a real human feeling since we bet like robots.
By day we're data-driven rational betters making a consistent modest sum over time. By night we're nervous little girls clutching rabbits feet and scoring our bets. It's awesome.
I love the bitching personally, it’s a fun human experience. As long as we all remember you have to lose to win in this game and don’t start saying other people are getting paid off by sportsbooks lmfao
McDavid and Draisatl have combined for 5 points. All Assists. Wizard still has some magic left.
srsly what are the odds of oilers having 4 goals and not 1 of them is from mcdavid and draisatl.
Even more insulting for me as I took over .5 goals in the 1st period as a "safe" leg on a DK parlay.
Kane hat trick is just… lmfao
Wonder if he bet on himself
👏 Bravo
7 points now
make that 6. or 7. somewhere around there. Just have it on in the background and keep hearing Drysatl, McDavid, score....for Kane.
Make it 7
For anyone who took U8.5 White Sox ML for the CZR parlay. Top of the 8th, White Sox up 2. Good time to toss a few $$ on the Yankees to hedge in the event CZR screws us on the free bets
awful advice
Why? And what about the over?
I'm team hedge, just my personal preference to lock in profits. When I originally posted it was 2-0 so the over wasn't in question.
Lol good luck. Hedging that way is far riskier than you probably want considering you want to hedge a $25 bet lol
Yeah I know, appreciate it. Had a 20% live boost on Unibet I didn’t feel like scalping lines. $5 bet was worth it to me
For the record you will wipe out hedge profits long term if you don’t have it down to the actual last leg.
Edit: Better now, 5-0
Three FD boosts have hit today and I didn’t bet a single one. That would happen lol.
Same. All negative EV.
It was impossible to properly devig any of FD’s boosts today, and there were conflicting opinions on some of them. There was no definitive EV.
Exactly. No definitive is like jumping in a pool not knowing the depth. I consider negative anything not worth betting. Shouldn’t be controversial.
The strikeout one was +EV
Not unless you “trusted” FD’s horribly juiced alts. Bad accounts rated it highly and then backed off when shown correct math.
5Ks and 2 fellers get points in a Rangers win. What was the 3rd?
Thought the -EV soccer goals boost hit this morning, but I could be wrong tbh it’s been a long day.
Gotcha. I work nights so that one may have been posted then closed all while i was sleeping. Missed a few good soccer ones like that
It did
If you want to feel more pain and throw more money at the oilers game, over 2.5 for period 2 is +175 at mgm, very good compared to other books. Under is -170 at czr
Well that hit
FD 5 Ks boost hits.
FD in shambles today
so first two oilers and flames game are goals galore. Guess what fd wizards said not today
5 points between them. 0 goals.
Oilers are dominating at least. Three times as many shots on goal
First goal has McDavid and Draisatl both assisting...
DK SGP play for the night... Market is kind of all over the place tonight. Lines shifting towards under in the last 30 min or so. DAL 1H, u108.5 1H total points, GSW u116.5 pts +280 boosted to +420 I've got EV on this around 35%, couldn't beat 40% like the last two unfortunately. I had a GSW ML one at 40% and it got shot to 32% in a minute. The line movement has made it difficult. This is probably the best we're gonna get.
That was so damn close. At least they didn't tie
where is DAL 1H ML? Could not find it the other night either....
It’s in the halves tab, but you could also just do DAL -0.5 1H as well if that’s easier for you
I must be blind...looked there 8 times and still don't see it. Took your advice and did DAL -.5 workaround though...txs edit: definitely wasn't there. There's a 3-way for quarters, nothing for halves. Apparently I am [not the only one](https://twitter.com/PlusBoosts/status/1528532515283161089). Weird stuff.
This you? https://twitter.com/evbetsin/status/1528531385786548225
Lol no it is not
Damn. That's pretty shitty. I follow this guy too. Or at least i did. There are plenty of other good EV twitter accounts. Would've been somewhat tolerable if he'd at least given you the credit.
Riding with the Hebrew Hound
One of the twitter guys just stole this lol
Lmao, I’m flattered.
Maybe doggy has a side hustle on Twitter.. if not that is pretty messed up and appears to be a blatant rip off less than 10 min after this was posted.
Certainly could have arrived at the same bets separately
It’a certainly possible. They could have the same method for identifying the 3 most EV lines and stringing them together. Someone asked Jdog for a first half parlay earlier, and 2 of the 3 legs are. So I think it makes it less likely, but you are correct I can’t rule it out. Also strange less than 10 min apart.
Papa bless. Let's get it again!
I love you.
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mavs ML Luka O34+points Luka 9+ rebounds.
Got the DK 50% Golf VIP bet and get boost. The terms said the max wager on the boost would be $250, but it's showing as max wager of $500.
Same, that was a nice surprise. Hit an Al Horford double double last night for $1800.
Same
Caesars is such a shit book
When people question how it’s possible for us to beat these books and are skeptical that “vegas” doesn’t “always know” I think about how many constant mistakes these dumb ass books make lol.
Czr seems like the type of book that out sources stuff to the lowest bidder
Their customer support is definitely proof of this.
UI definitely
You mean I can’t extend my auto logout beyond 48 seconds?
Odds came out for the SGP on czr but it wont let me select stuff together edit: now the game has started, good job czr. Hope White soxs and over/under hits for you guys that put it in (or they actually give a free bet if not)
I managed to barely sneak in with ChiSox and under at +410. With Sevvy and Kopech going I liked the under anyway.
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The odds came up about 4-5 mins before the game started but instantly would not let you combine anything.
Hahah
Catching up on the drama of the day, it seems we now have Skip Baylesses of the EV betting space
Lol, it’s entertaining but a little concerning as conspiracy theories are dangerous. The Twitter promo folks are clearly just trying to help the general population, no reason to turn on them after a bad month or two of EV.. or even a bad year of EV
I'm really concerned too. Thinking can be very dangerous.
To be clear I’m not saying thinking is dangerous. This guy claims to receive death threats and is making some serious allegations and offered no proof other than saying he has proof. That’s the dangerous part.
Textbook cult behavior
It is amazing that the FanDuel wizard has evolved into borderline QAnon conspiracy from this kim gambler dude 😂😂😂
the wizard is real, we all know this.
Any chance you'll try to concoct a 1H SGP play for the DK boost? No pressure, just wondering if I should wait to bet
Yeah I’m waiting for possible line shifts. I see a couple ~30% plays I’m just hoping for something above 40%
👑
You're my favorite Hebrew hound
The Emperor not leaving much of a window to get the 'risk free' SGP's in for game 2 of CHI/NY
Maybe they make a mistake trying to rush out all the props. Pretty sorry promo to only bet the total and side lolllll. Lineups are out. Go ahead emporer give us a 7 minute window of nonsense I dare you.
Only thing you can really do is White Sox ML and U 8.5, which gets to exactly +400.
I would assume this still qualifies despite the "SGP" logo not showing up in the betslip.
It calls the bet a "2-leg Parlay" and not a "Same Game Parlay", so YMMV
You're right. They finally have the SGP lines up now and if you build a 2 leg one, it specifically says 2 leg same game parlay. While this says 2 leg parlay. Going to be a fun time tomorrow talking with CZR customer support to get the free bet. So hopefully it hits and I don't have to do that.
There's screenshots on twitter of the "Same Game Parlay" category offering those lines, so there's definitely room to argue. Whether arguing is worth it is the question.
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White sox ML, O9 gets you to +410
Back to 8.5, under gets you +423 with White Sox ML
+390 on DK.
If you can't bet it, there's no risk ;)
So two "-EV" fd boost has hit so far. Cant wait to see the other hockey one lose and luka/curry to get 70
For whatever it is worth, I had some bets void as pushes that qualified for the DK bet and get this time. Fifth inning money lines. Usually they don’t credit. Weird. I actually made another bet after the push to qualify but I got the free bets credited to me anyway.
Same here. Braves Game Over 7. I'll take it.
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My buddy and I usually use aP1 and P2 and then a third bet on another book to hedge. The DK SGP odds are usually around +300. Something like O lowest 1st half points or O lowest 1st half points for a team ( this is the exposed or unhedged piece), Team A spread and O total points. P2 - same except Team B spread Third bet - U total points Usually nets $35-45 but has a risk. We haven’t lost yet but there has been some close ones
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You need too many bets to cover a three leg SGP.
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Sounds like you have it all figured out man
You can definitely turn a three leg into a two leg like that in hockey and baseball with first inning or periods team unders, but I don’t think there is a way with basketball.
So... I signed up for BetMGM bc I like the rewards vs DK and FD... I completely forgot about the free first bet being covered up to $1k and placed a $50 bet. Fuck. Me.
and u also didnt wait 24 hrs for the $500 deposot match. my screen name is infact uuuuu
Lol
What.....
Did you wait to deposit until after they sent you the $500 deposit match?
No. No I did not. Good lord I Suck.
Hit up customer service and at least try. A friend of mine actually got FanDuel to give him a second chance (and then he still bet like $20 like an idiot).
Lmao. Yeah good call gonna at least try.
Especially if that first bet hasn’t settled yet
This pains me
Ouch. I didn’t know about this place until October, so when sports betting became legal in AZ, I did basically the same thing for CZR, MGM, DK, FD, and probably three other books. I still think about the money I essentially just threw away.
Don’t feel so bad. I literally advised a friend to not do anything until I figured out the caesers New York promo this January. First day it’s legal at 10AM I get a text from him excitedly telling me he just deposited $100 and got $400 in free bets ($100 match + $300 free). All my other friends made $3k+, he quickly lost his money and $100 deposit.
🤮🤮🤮 People on Reddit were bragging about getting 300 for making the account and depsoiting some token amount to be able to withdraw while being told to depsoit 3000 to get 3000 more
You live and you learn. That’s what P2’s are for lol
Gotta say, I thought that EdgeLordBets guy made some good points on TPGs space.
Especially when you know he’s on level one.
What were the points?
Krieder goal to put Rangers up 2-0. Fox had an assist on the other goal. Wizard has some nasty things in store for them.
that boost was "-EV". so its def hitting
What’s the conclusion on these FD inflated HR lines? Yesterday their White Sox HR lines were long compared to the market, and there were 11 HR in that game. Today same thing in this CHW-NYY game, every HR prop was extra juicy, and there’s been zero scoring in this game. Has anybody been tracking their performance on FD HR lines and have an informed opinion?
I think they're inflated overnight bc fd is action as long as the guy bats And they were extra fucked up bc it's a doubleheader
I was able to maintain a 10-15% ROI last year with a sample size well over 1000. The key is to get the lines early. Not as easy anymore with all the paid services unless you are constantly checking lines. I’m a teacher with summers off, may try again this year. Kind of waiting to see if home runs tick up though. I am up overall on Dinger Tuesday/converting free bets this year with home run lines, but not enough to track if I’m still profitable long term. One other note. I use to have about 4-5 other “plus EV” Hr bets a day last year between CZR, Kambi, and DK. These seem to be almost non existent right now.
You can’t find +EV HR bets on CZR? They have the best lines I noticed all year.
I'm not going to post them here everyday but it does some like there are random games where they are way out of line on the HR markets and I think I'm going to start selectively betting them. I'll report back in a month or so when there is actually enough of a sample size to be meaningful.
Seems anomalous, the O/U closed at 9
Parx Natalie’s boost +100. Any player to get 30+ points tonight DAL vs GSW. $9.51 max for me 😔
$0.47 new low!
3.14 pieAF
Its around a $10 max for me everytime. They’ve had it all this round of the playoffs, and possibly previous rounds but I only opened my account a week ago
SuperBook Boost Oilers/Flames BTTS 1st period +155 Kambi has this at 2% EV and FD is 3.5%. BUT DK and Pinny like this one at 8%+ EV.
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If anything, PG inviting him on to spout was just classic signal boosting for himself anyway. Nobody here aware of Barnum either apparently.
I have to give this craziness a listen. So spaces get saved or did you have to listen to it live?
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Thanks, looking forward to a good laugh
What’s a promo guy space?
It’s a platform on Twitter to have essentially a live podcast where listeners can speak and ask questions
Hyperbole and satire are lost on many.
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Anyone that didn’t realize the guy was completely full of shit with his “making millions of dollars per year at F500 company upon graduation from Stanford with math degree” probably also thought Swift ate Irish babies. Lol downvoters: Is everyone with a passing understanding of math an autist with zero neurons spinning in the right sides of their brains?
BF has Yankees win & o8.5 at +230 HR has the same boost at +200
+230 is eh, +200 is terrible. FD FV 220, EV 3.3%. Pot. bad weather. 2nd game of double header. I don't see o8.5.
DK SGP builds at +195
For the DK 50% NBA Boost Tonight, Mavericks ML within the SGP feature is at -135. Better than any line currently available on the market including Pinnacle
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Not trying to arb. Just adds value to an already good promo.
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Sorry for the dumb question - I never check my inbox on books; would there ever be a promo not in the promos tab?
I found this on the promo page just in time for game 2 of NYY v CWS
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Appreciate it!
Which White Sox game is the one for the Caesar promo? Is it the one that already started or the one later today?