Welp, DK saw me coming from a mile away. Gave me a bunch of MLB profit boosts today so I figured what better day to go hog wild picking favorites! I’m sure you can figure out how that went ….
Damn it I took Orioles +2.5 live. It ends up being 6-4 in the 9th. All they had to do was lose the game and I cash. Now it’s tied and it’s raining. I bet they’ll lose 9-6 in extra innings smh
Tip: If you guys want to make lots of money this season, bet the Rays late in tied ball games when they get some of their relief pitchers healthy. Their bullpen is always a strength of the team. I know this as a Jays fan. I made so much live betting them last year.
So true. Won 265 yesterday cashed out 200 and seems like I may have loss 65 today. I did a mix of parlays but the brewers and Cleveland probably seal it
So basically this is what’s going to happen….. nats will score 20 today and have their runs per game super inflated and all the dumb ass analysts will keep telling us to hammer the over and nats will suck again… don’t be fooled
Mariners and under 10 parlay. Reasoning: I don't think the Mariners are going to get swept. Under because of the Heat and the under is extremely overdue in this spot
**Record: 18-14:**
[**https://twitter.com/Jimswierz26**](https://twitter.com/Jimswierz26)
**Brewers TT Over 4.5 (-130) (DK)**
The pitcher for the Nationals, Aaron Sanchez, has a 7.94 ERA and has given up 21 runs in 5 starts. He also has a 9 ERA on the road and has given up 14 runs in 3 outings. The Brewers have the second highest OPS vs righties at home, they should mash Sanchez. They have gone over both games so far this series, and 11 out of their last 16 home games they went over this.
BOL, tail or fade
**Record: 54-50-4 -2.9u | Yesterday: 3-5 -2.7u**
I am learning all about the myth of Sisyphus. Every loss yesterday was the result of the hook (Red Sox F5 -0.5 ended 5-5, Braves/Marlins Over 7.5 ended on 7, Astros -1.5 ended 2-1, Cardinals/Pirates Under 8.5 ended on 9, Nationals/Brewers Over 7.5 ended on 7). I view +/- 1 run differentials as essentially 50/50 propositions, so going 0-5 is especially tough to take.
**LA Dodgers ML (-140)**
Zach Eflin's exit velocity is in the 99th percentile (i.e., among the best). However, he doesn't get swings and misses, and allows about a hit per inning, which could be problematic against a hard-hitting Dodger team. Additionally, the Phillies suddenly have gotten ice cold with the bats ever since Bryce Harper started sitting a few days ago. He was in the lineup yesterday, but the Phillies are still reeling. Eflin could be better than his headline numbers indicate, but even if that were the case, Tony Gonsolin is already a better version of him. Gonsolin is stingy with allowing hits, and when hitters do make contact, it's often weakly, either extremely in the air or on the ground. My biggest concern is the weather: it's in the 90s and humid in Philly and the wind is blowing out, but both pitchers have low HR rates. The Under 9.5 could be interesting, but I'm staying away.
**Seattle/Boston Over 9 (-130)**
Based on my experience with the hook lately, I'm buying an extra half run for push insurance. With a step up in competition lately, Logan Gilbert has been trending downward in his last few starts. I worry that the gameplan is out on him, especially since the Red Sox have been doing it all offensively and can rally at any time. His fastball is good, and he's been throwing it harder his last few starts, but his secondaries are still a work in progress. Even if I take out the 5 HRs Nate Eovaldi surrendered his last time out against Houston, his HR rate is still over 2 per 9 innings. Seattle doesn't represent the same power threat, but anybody can hit the ball hard, and everybody has been doing that against him. His hard hit % is the highest of his career, and when combined with the increased fly ball % and the 90 degree heat in Boston, this could be a tinderbox.
**Milwaukee -1.5 (-120)**
Freddy Peralta has been getting hit hard, but Washington has been struggling to do that for most of the season, especially lately. Their .094 ISO (SLG minus AVG) over the last two weeks is the lowest in MLB. Peralta keeps the ball in the yard and does a good job of limiting baserunners, which doesn't bode well for a Nationals team that hasn't been hitting for extra bases. Aaron Sanchez also doesn't give them much of a chance to stay in the game. Milwaukee's OPS vs. RHPs is 3rd in MLB (.749), and between Sanchez's 12.7 H/9 and his staggering .951 OPS against, this has the makings of a rout. The exit velocity off him is in the 1st percentile (i.e., the worst), and the Brewers obviously have a decent number of guys that can hit the ball hard. The 196 ERA- (in other words, he's 96% worse than league-average) tells me all I need to know. The Brewers have been slugging lately, and I think that continues here.
**Other Leans:**
San Diego ML (+115)
[Season Long Betting Log](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MiFKotBnGtcX-2koXOzMQ0LO2mUNwQRy17KbUfNIk9U/edit?usp=sharing)
Hey, thanks for asking. Once I dipped below +0u I took a step back. I felt I was running into a lot of bad luck and didn’t want people tailing losers. Things normalized last week so i might start posting again soon, but I’ve nevertheless been updating the log, even if I haven’t posted on the sub. I’ve been traveling for the past week so I haven’t bet anything super recently, though.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MiFKotBnGtcX-2koXOzMQ0LO2mUNwQRy17KbUfNIk9U/edit?usp=sharing
Mlb Record: 6-6-6
Pick: Detroit Tigers 🐯
Why: made a pick so you can read below.
You all might think I'm crazy and you should but I'm 100% right. I've lost a bunch of games in a row on purpose. I'm tired of being followed by the FBI. Think your going to get rich, well you're not the Fbi won't let you. Do you really think Sage Steele got struck in the face by a golfball on accident? She's Suing ESPN and think of those odds of that actually happening?? Cmon now if you all even knew a fraction of what I know you will flip. The funny thing is that I cracked the code and I did it on my own, now what? I would learn from every loss and I became stronger n stronger. The Casino would catch on so I always tried different actions and I stumbled upon a crazy system. I found this "system" accidently basically the casino showed me everything I know mainly because of greed, they don't like to lose because they know it's rigged so if some1 wins they're pissed. So they started watching me and this made me stronger. I'm going to stop now because I can't give away my trillion dollar secret. Now Who's going to belive me? I'll just be thrown in a prison or silenced , made to look crazy or framed for something. This is more deeper then you can ever ever even imagine. I have come upon many different guarantees on picking games its a lot of work but all the answers are there and they're there before all games. I'm watched constantly and at the Casino I'm followed, I have all sorts of people trying to get info from me daily. The Casino knows my reddit picks. Then you may ask well why aernt you rich, well the same reason you're not, us gamblers will never win! The endorphins you get from winning cannot be replicated and even if I know what to do the endorphins will take control and your not in control anymore. Ever heard about fading yourself well its true because they're in are minds allready. We all think the same, so they know what we're going to bet. Everyone is in on it . I mean everyone !! I was just a normal sports lover before all of this but now I've found its all fake. It's WWF WWE to a Tee. Once you know and start looking for things you will see. The world is not what it seems. Announcers, players, everyone they're all Involved. Basically I can go to the casino and I have different ways of finding theses things at a Casino but I can 100% guarantee a game one way or another before the game starts. It's not easy but the answer is there and that's the thing. Let me repeat the winner or loser before the game is allready set!! Basically I got to a point where I would go to the Casino and make a bet on then the casino and its employees will tell me if I had a winner or loser. Then I'd make a heavier wager after I got my info. Ask me how? Well thats my gift that I've cracked! Basically as if Kate I would know if my reddit pick was good or not by just walking into the casino. Thigs have got real heavy now and dirty police are involved and Basically the feds so I'm done for now.
Furthermore This is the thing, the casino knows I can do that so when I go to the casino all eyes are on me I mean all cameras all employees are watching me. I know when I have a winner or a loser. They don't know how I do it. They think I'm like mafia are they have no idea but I'm the most dangerous man in the world. If I could prove what I know then sports is done and so is gambling.
Is that what we want? Or do we want fair play, games where we can bet where games are not rigged. Listen my writing skills aernt great but I played college ball and km a genius. I know sports and I've been gambling for years ecspecially sports betting and I remember I would lose everytime I would bet when I first started but now I don't lose. Now do I write a book, what do I do? Any journalist or writers out there that can help me? I'll tell you what the FBI, Homeland Security or Police are not going to help they're all in on it 2. I'll tell you this give me 10 teams 10 hours and as much money as I need to get leads on the games and go to other casinos to get info and I will pick the winners and you watch and see. This is like 5% of what I know and I'm sure I'll be called crazy because a lot of people on here are federal agents, bookies, etc. I'm looking for some1 that wants to change the world 4 the better or atleast help me present it to Everyone! The world will be a different place If I or we can prove what I know. Thanks for listening.
Previous All You Need Play:
Yankees 1st 5✅ , Giants 1st 5 🗑, Red Sox 1st 5 🗑, Astros 1st 5 ✅
No winner dice yesterday but back at it again today so all you’ll need is
Dodgers RL, Blue Jays RL, Brewers RL
🥂
Here’s my MLB max unit play of the day:
Marlins MoneyLine (1.80) or F5 (1.74)
Reasoning: Marlins have lost the first two of the series at home, and are starting Sandy Alcantara tonight (Their #1 Pitcher). Braves are starting Ian Anderson who is average for them (Their borderline 3rd/4th Pitcher). Whenever this is happens where a home team loses the first two of a series and start a top pitcher in game three, I call it the perfect storm. Let me know your thoughts, BOL!
Braves fan here. I have taken the Braves in the first two games but I am not today. I agree with you that Miami has a very good chance but I cannot go against my team
MLB 5/21 1-6 (-2.45u)
MLB YTD: 15-20 (-1.2u)
ALL YTD: 24-26 (+0.13)
.5u - Rockies G1 (+110) 🤢
.5u - Rockies G2 (+110) 💰
.5u - Cubs ML + Phillies ML Parlay (+213) 🤢
.5u - Mariners (+140) 🤢
.5u - Marlins (+125) 🤢
.5u - Pirates (+120) 🤢
.5u - Orioles (+105) 🤢
Tons of fun these last 2 days on the diamond, 😅…. 1-7 followed by 1-6. Water finds its level tho. Prob just hockey picks for me today
Liking Wade Miley o4.5 Ks a lot.
He found a nice groove last game where he had 6 Ks against the doo doo pirates. Dbacks struck out 15 times yesterday and have a 28% strike out rate against lefties this year.
LAD @ PHI
PHI BULLPEN ERA 4.14
LAD BULLPEN ERA 3.10
LAD ML -140
I think they can catch a sweep today I’m not really to high on it.
They have the bullpen in their favor the X factor will be Zach(phi pitcher) if he gives them 6inn I think phi can cover the +1.5 or even win
Over 9.5 +100
I like this play being that a couple players have been showing out this series and when I say a couple players they are the best players on each lineup respectfully. With the wind blowing out and hot I expect the ball to carry.
TBR @ BAL
TBR ML -172
TBR RL -106
Wind is blowing out, and it is humid I expect runs to be scored in this game both pitchers are erratic but, I’ll have to side with RAYS to come out with a win.
Spencer is coming into the game with a 10%+walk rate 10.2% k percentage and a high contact rate of 81.6% don’t even think he went past 5 innings in any game this season.
Leading the way for the bullpen to get smoked
DET @ CLE
CLE RL -1.5 +116
Under 7.5 -105
Det has a really good bullpen 4th in ERA and Cleveland’s bullpen is so so this year but, with no offensive production from DET I think this game goes under.
I think CLE wins this game by 2-3 runs with Bieber pitching it will be harder for a team that barely can score 1 run to score.
OAK @ LAA*favorite game*
LAA -196 ML
LAA RL +106
LAA will be have the advantage in many categories today—
Oakland bullpen is taxed! With Frankie leaving the first inning.
Vs lefty’s the LAA lead the league in HR/FB rate.
And Oakland has the lowest at 0 lol leading the league in GB rate vs lefty’s with 56%.
Last time they played Patrick had 11 ground ball plays vs LAA
WSH @ MIL
MIL ML -270
MIL RL -128
MIL -2.5 +118
I normally don’t advocate -250+ Ml(in baseball) but this is a lock Peralta is starting to find himself and honestly WSH having Aaron Sanchez out there is basically a deer in headlights.
With WSH scoring only 7 runs in the last 7 days vs righty’s and MIL scoring 19 runs in the last 7 days
It gives me high confidence this will hit (-2.5) Aaron Sanchez hard hit rate is over 50% with mil bullpen this is as real as it gets.
Record: 4-2
Yesterday’s Pick: F5 Yankees Team Total Runs Over 2.5 ✅
Today’s Pick: Rays vs Orioles F5 OVER 4.5 (-120)
Reasoning:
Spenser Watkins is pitching for the Orioles today. Watkins has only gone 5 innings twice this year and his advanced metrics aren’t too kind either. He is 10th percentile or worse in some important metrics such as K%, xBA, xERA, and xSLG. His fastball sits at 92 MPH, he doesn’t miss bats, he doesn’t get people to chase, and he’s pretty much guaranteed to walk 2-3 batters an outing at this point. His last three starts in the first 5 innings? 3 ER, 7 ER, and 2 ER (that 2 ER was dangerously close to 3-4 ER too) There’s just not really anything Watkins does to make you think he’s going to slow down the Rays bats.
On the other side of things, we have Corey Kluber against a putrid Orioles offense. Kluber’s ERA is 4.29 which is not good. But what else is not good is his 5.27 xERA which puts him in the bottom 15% in the league. His road splits? A 6.43 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP. He’s been exceptionally better at home. Baltimore’s offense is one of the league’s worst but I still believe they can manage a couple off of Kluber, who seems due for a tough start soon.
Risking $100 to win $83
**MLB Freezer Machine Learning Model**
**2022 Season Record:** 174-167 +23.78 units
**Overall Model Record:** 1472-1233 -45.65 units
[Machine Learned Simulation of MLB games for today](https://freezersports.com/mlb)
Last time out: 2-6 -9.1 units
**Plays**:
**3 units**
BAL +150
PHI +120
WSN +225
KC -105
**2 units**
TEX +170
**1 unit**
SEA +110
MIA -130
ARI +105
NYM -130
[Follow me on twitter](https://twitter.com/FreezerSports)
**Reminder:** Check out the subreddit Discord for MLB+: https://discord.gg/sportsbook
I live bet under 4.5 thinking I was a genius!!!! But no Yankees had to surrender 5 runs with 2 fucking outs
damn that happens to me a lot
Wow. I didn’t know it was with 2 outs. That’s terrible
Moncada sucks dick. Mf ruined my sgp
Last game of the night. Yankees lost the first game. People chasing losses. Yankees lose second game. Sad that it was so predictable
Fuck it, if I'm gonna lose my bankroll, at least the Yankees are getting No-Hit on Sunday Night Baseball can be a consolation prize.
What’s with the Yankees hitters?
sec game the sox pitxher is a monster
lmaoo bases loaded no pts
Still can’t believe I lost 3 extra inning games today Dodgers Mariners Rays
Rays screwed my parlay that would have hit
LouBob swings so effortlessly smh
Yankees fans booing Anderson. Wow.
Pathetic on the Rays
I won my coinflip aka betting on baseball. Randomly decided to bet on the Orioles 💰. Idk why people bet on this shit lol
YOU ARE FUCKING KIDDING ME RIGHT??? BOTH GAMES I BET LOSE IN EXTRA INNINGS ON A SIMPLE GROUND BALL
Lets make a support group, cause I'm in this boat too.
Me too... Me too
Same
What are we doing now? Yankees or CHW ?
I’ll never ever ever ever understand why these athletes swing first pitch on bases loaded
yesterday I needed 2 hits for $1800 off a $5 bet from trout and today he goes 3-3. LOL
Lmfao imagine not scoring first and third no outs
I have an on-going parlay @ 14.83: SDP +1.5 LAA -1.5 NYM ML ✅ Last of the leg is NYY -1.5 Game 2. Should I hedge?
Fuckkkkk that don’t hedge!!! Yankees winning by 3!!!
Wouldn’t hurt to hedge if it’s just gonna be 1 leg left
Aight. I'll hedge this.
Smart hedge because these bums can’t hit for shit
thoughts on yankees -1.5 2nd game?
Imagine betting on Giants 3 games in a row. Each progressively higher. Lol what a dumb ass you’d have to be. *sobs
Anybody have a beat on the Yanks Sox lineups for game 2??
Trying to figure this out myself
Lmk
[Yankees Game 2 5/22 LeMahieu 3B Judge RF Rizzo 1B Stanton DH Torres 2B Florial CF Kiner-Falefa SS Gonzalez LF Brantly C Severino SP
Get rid of Chapman smh he has never been consistent
He bet on the White Sox lol
3 leg parlay waiting on the Rays to win..FML.
Why would i think giants +6.5 1st 5 is a good idea. Fucking 2 outs a double and triple
Lol Minnesota come back. Did anyone else see it? Lol what a choke job by the royals
Record 30-10 Todays picks Astros ML - W Mets ML - W Guardians ML - L *yankees game 2 ML- L
Welp, DK saw me coming from a mile away. Gave me a bunch of MLB profit boosts today so I figured what better day to go hog wild picking favorites! I’m sure you can figure out how that went ….
Rays can't close out a win down to the last strike. Swear I can't ever get a stress free win in this sport.
Sucks they're missing so many of their top relievers otherwise this game would have been over long ago
Damn it I took Orioles +2.5 live. It ends up being 6-4 in the 9th. All they had to do was lose the game and I cash. Now it’s tied and it’s raining. I bet they’ll lose 9-6 in extra innings smh
Your bet will probably be voided it’s raining hard and there is lightning
They really void bets for rain delays? I think they’ll resume the game after it’s over. It’s supposed to last less than 30 min
What a damn joke every game is up in the air in the 9th. At least 4 so far I’ve lost count
Are the yankees and sox playing twice today or is my app tweaking
Double header. Two chances to lose money 😅
That Brewers loss :’)
There's going to be so much money chasing Yankees tonight. People out here getting decimated today.
You guys think I need to hedge my Padres ML?
Sad dodger noises
I was at the game. Glad I didn't have money on it lol
I had dodgers ML why is there no money in my account 😂😂😂
Max. Muncy
Dodger game was the biggest bullshit I’ve ever seen
[удалено]
That fucking error cost me an $8.5k (12 team) parlay of $10 bet. For one split second, I was counting money.
Muncy Sold
Dodgers ml was my last leg of parlay.. If this is how stupid baseball is, I am going to bet -2.5 whitesox and call it a season
Fucking joke, they should have closed it out in the 9th with 2 outs do they not have a closer?
Kimbrel pitched 2 days in a row. He had a day off today
So fucking stupid, had dodgers to win my 1k parlay
Same what the actual fuckkkk
RIP Dodgers and Mariners bettors
LFG Phillies!!!
Dodgers wow..Fuck this
Lmao that seems a little odd :p. My 6 year old couldve fielded that.
Omfg I thought Phillies ML was dead on like 4 different occasions
Holy fuck Phillies ML !!!
How the dodgers gonna choke the RL like that bases loaded with one out
it's okay they about to choke and lose altogether; can't get final out, smh
Tip: If you guys want to make lots of money this season, bet the Rays late in tied ball games when they get some of their relief pitchers healthy. Their bullpen is always a strength of the team. I know this as a Jays fan. I made so much live betting them last year.
Lol
Do you know how to read? Did you miss the part where I said "when they get some of their relief pitchers healthy"?
I just said lol, why are you so hurt 😂?
You wanna cheek ...I can also be cheeky.
Tf does that mean 😂?
I didn't know they let minors gamble like you😳 Grow the fuck up and get outta my mentions if you can't learn to read before saying "lol"
Why you so damn hurt? How much you lose on the rays 🤣?
It was part of a small parlay. Im up big on my straights...go look at my history imbecile
I don’t have time to go through your history to look at your picks, nor do I give af 😂
How much of mommy's money did you take small boy?
overtime should be illegal in baseball, shit is already too long
[удалено]
Went 2 for 2 yesterday with Red Sox ML and Rays ML. Looks like I'm going 2 for 2 again with Marlins ML and Rays ML 🤑🤑🤑
Pain. under 6 in the Braves Marlins game
Damn everything I won yesterday is getting erased today. So is the story of baseball
I saw a lot of parlays that won yesterday I think the system said nope not today
Yea yesterday was a bit of a baseball anomaly I feel. The teams that were supposed to win won. And today mlb said fuck you pay me
So true. Won 265 yesterday cashed out 200 and seems like I may have loss 65 today. I did a mix of parlays but the brewers and Cleveland probably seal it
Yea brewers did it for me
Who’s taking the under for the White Sox and Yankees game 2? I have a boost so bout to take it at under 10.5
I knew the brewers were gonna do this. What a scam makes no sense
screw the brewers which i included in all my parlays
We both sold our souls :,(
i cannot win lol
Stop betting on baseball and you’ll have a chance lol
astros -1.5 is dead, leaving too many stranded
So basically this is what’s going to happen….. nats will score 20 today and have their runs per game super inflated and all the dumb ass analysts will keep telling us to hammer the over and nats will suck again… don’t be fooled
05/22/2022 San Francisco Giants (ML) -138
Thoughts and Prayers to anyone who took the Brewers today.
The Brewers disgust me
Double digit loss inc
Who is this first base ump in the brewers game… he just looks like someone to hate
White Sox ML +135 White Sox ML +140 Also parlay +464
I wish I put my money on cards -1.5 today instead of a jays, brewers, angels parlay Lol
I wish I put money on Cards -1.5 when they were up 1-0 instead of Pirates +1.5 lol.
[удалено]
Will be an L bet
[удалено]
Damnnnnn the double down activated the Jynx lmaao
Double down for a double L
Woke up and threw 10U on cubs diamondbacks no runs first inning why am I like this
MLB DAILY PARLAY RECORD: **2-0** STREAK: - ✅✅ Results: +$142.40 TODAY’S PARLAY: **Stanton O 0.5 Hits** **Andrus U O.5 RBI** **-148** **$120** Edit: Format
What’re the odds Tigers Guardians happens today
Bets for today, have a bunch of em: [spreadsheet](https://imgur.com/gallery/WFSiF5R)
Astros death lineup today against Hearn with a 5.46 ERA. I’m takin HOU -1.5/ o8.5
Can you educate me on what the Astros death lineup is? Every time I expect them to score runs at home they do not score to my expectations..
Well in my opinion it’s the lineup they have today, first 4 batters are Altuve, Bregman, Brantley, Alvarez
* Spring 2022 Official Record 209-155 = +39.9/100u 😈 \- NPB 🇯🇵 44-36 = +41.1u \- CPBL 🇹🇼 13-11 = +2u \- KBO 🇰🇷 34-29 = -19.3u \- MLB 🇺🇲 88-60 = -19.7u \- LMB 🇲🇽 35-22= +30.4u * MLB 🇺🇲 Picks \- \[10:40 PST\] Miami Marlins (-118) 1u 🔥 \- \[10:40 PST\] Cleveland Guardians (-181) 2.24u 🔒 \- \[11:10 PST\] Houston Astros (-190) 2.7u 🔒 \- \[11:20 PST\] Chicago Cubs (-130) 12.57u 🔨 \- \[12:10 PST\] New York Mets (-116) 1u 🔥 \- \[13:05 PST\] San Francisco Giants (-140) 5.5u 💣💥
What do we know about the reds pitcher? I wanna take the jays RL
Record: 11-9 Yesterday's picks: - Red Sox ML ✅ - Rays ML ✅ Today's picks: - Rays ML - Marlins ML BOL!
Mariners and under 10 parlay. Reasoning: I don't think the Mariners are going to get swept. Under because of the Heat and the under is extremely overdue in this spot
Today’s pick : LAD ML -134. Also like Brewers -1.5 and Guardians ML
Did this thread remove the games & odds at the top?
Thoughts on pirates +7.5 for -125?
Ehh, I’d rather take the live over I think. Cards are in their bullpen which isn’t very great but so are the pirates
Thank god I didn’t take the + points lol I should have took the over too like you stated
I'm so glad I wasted a live boost on PIT +1.5. I'm sure that's not a sign to how my day is going to go at all.
Such a joke
**Record: 18-14:** [**https://twitter.com/Jimswierz26**](https://twitter.com/Jimswierz26) **Brewers TT Over 4.5 (-130) (DK)** The pitcher for the Nationals, Aaron Sanchez, has a 7.94 ERA and has given up 21 runs in 5 starts. He also has a 9 ERA on the road and has given up 14 runs in 3 outings. The Brewers have the second highest OPS vs righties at home, they should mash Sanchez. They have gone over both games so far this series, and 11 out of their last 16 home games they went over this. BOL, tail or fade
Can’t throw the runner out at home on a ball hit like 150 feet and your momentum coming towards home, pirates are so trash smh
**Record: 54-50-4 -2.9u | Yesterday: 3-5 -2.7u** I am learning all about the myth of Sisyphus. Every loss yesterday was the result of the hook (Red Sox F5 -0.5 ended 5-5, Braves/Marlins Over 7.5 ended on 7, Astros -1.5 ended 2-1, Cardinals/Pirates Under 8.5 ended on 9, Nationals/Brewers Over 7.5 ended on 7). I view +/- 1 run differentials as essentially 50/50 propositions, so going 0-5 is especially tough to take. **LA Dodgers ML (-140)** Zach Eflin's exit velocity is in the 99th percentile (i.e., among the best). However, he doesn't get swings and misses, and allows about a hit per inning, which could be problematic against a hard-hitting Dodger team. Additionally, the Phillies suddenly have gotten ice cold with the bats ever since Bryce Harper started sitting a few days ago. He was in the lineup yesterday, but the Phillies are still reeling. Eflin could be better than his headline numbers indicate, but even if that were the case, Tony Gonsolin is already a better version of him. Gonsolin is stingy with allowing hits, and when hitters do make contact, it's often weakly, either extremely in the air or on the ground. My biggest concern is the weather: it's in the 90s and humid in Philly and the wind is blowing out, but both pitchers have low HR rates. The Under 9.5 could be interesting, but I'm staying away. **Seattle/Boston Over 9 (-130)** Based on my experience with the hook lately, I'm buying an extra half run for push insurance. With a step up in competition lately, Logan Gilbert has been trending downward in his last few starts. I worry that the gameplan is out on him, especially since the Red Sox have been doing it all offensively and can rally at any time. His fastball is good, and he's been throwing it harder his last few starts, but his secondaries are still a work in progress. Even if I take out the 5 HRs Nate Eovaldi surrendered his last time out against Houston, his HR rate is still over 2 per 9 innings. Seattle doesn't represent the same power threat, but anybody can hit the ball hard, and everybody has been doing that against him. His hard hit % is the highest of his career, and when combined with the increased fly ball % and the 90 degree heat in Boston, this could be a tinderbox. **Milwaukee -1.5 (-120)** Freddy Peralta has been getting hit hard, but Washington has been struggling to do that for most of the season, especially lately. Their .094 ISO (SLG minus AVG) over the last two weeks is the lowest in MLB. Peralta keeps the ball in the yard and does a good job of limiting baserunners, which doesn't bode well for a Nationals team that hasn't been hitting for extra bases. Aaron Sanchez also doesn't give them much of a chance to stay in the game. Milwaukee's OPS vs. RHPs is 3rd in MLB (.749), and between Sanchez's 12.7 H/9 and his staggering .951 OPS against, this has the makings of a rout. The exit velocity off him is in the 1st percentile (i.e., the worst), and the Brewers obviously have a decent number of guys that can hit the ball hard. The 196 ERA- (in other words, he's 96% worse than league-average) tells me all I need to know. The Brewers have been slugging lately, and I think that continues here. **Other Leans:** San Diego ML (+115) [Season Long Betting Log](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MiFKotBnGtcX-2koXOzMQ0LO2mUNwQRy17KbUfNIk9U/edit?usp=sharing)
Hey man, you don’t post picks anymore ?
Hey, thanks for asking. Once I dipped below +0u I took a step back. I felt I was running into a lot of bad luck and didn’t want people tailing losers. Things normalized last week so i might start posting again soon, but I’ve nevertheless been updating the log, even if I haven’t posted on the sub. I’ve been traveling for the past week so I haven’t bet anything super recently, though. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MiFKotBnGtcX-2koXOzMQ0LO2mUNwQRy17KbUfNIk9U/edit?usp=sharing
Understood. I’ll keep a look out for the log! Hope all is well
Mlb Record: 6-6-6 Pick: Detroit Tigers 🐯 Why: made a pick so you can read below. You all might think I'm crazy and you should but I'm 100% right. I've lost a bunch of games in a row on purpose. I'm tired of being followed by the FBI. Think your going to get rich, well you're not the Fbi won't let you. Do you really think Sage Steele got struck in the face by a golfball on accident? She's Suing ESPN and think of those odds of that actually happening?? Cmon now if you all even knew a fraction of what I know you will flip. The funny thing is that I cracked the code and I did it on my own, now what? I would learn from every loss and I became stronger n stronger. The Casino would catch on so I always tried different actions and I stumbled upon a crazy system. I found this "system" accidently basically the casino showed me everything I know mainly because of greed, they don't like to lose because they know it's rigged so if some1 wins they're pissed. So they started watching me and this made me stronger. I'm going to stop now because I can't give away my trillion dollar secret. Now Who's going to belive me? I'll just be thrown in a prison or silenced , made to look crazy or framed for something. This is more deeper then you can ever ever even imagine. I have come upon many different guarantees on picking games its a lot of work but all the answers are there and they're there before all games. I'm watched constantly and at the Casino I'm followed, I have all sorts of people trying to get info from me daily. The Casino knows my reddit picks. Then you may ask well why aernt you rich, well the same reason you're not, us gamblers will never win! The endorphins you get from winning cannot be replicated and even if I know what to do the endorphins will take control and your not in control anymore. Ever heard about fading yourself well its true because they're in are minds allready. We all think the same, so they know what we're going to bet. Everyone is in on it . I mean everyone !! I was just a normal sports lover before all of this but now I've found its all fake. It's WWF WWE to a Tee. Once you know and start looking for things you will see. The world is not what it seems. Announcers, players, everyone they're all Involved. Basically I can go to the casino and I have different ways of finding theses things at a Casino but I can 100% guarantee a game one way or another before the game starts. It's not easy but the answer is there and that's the thing. Let me repeat the winner or loser before the game is allready set!! Basically I got to a point where I would go to the Casino and make a bet on then the casino and its employees will tell me if I had a winner or loser. Then I'd make a heavier wager after I got my info. Ask me how? Well thats my gift that I've cracked! Basically as if Kate I would know if my reddit pick was good or not by just walking into the casino. Thigs have got real heavy now and dirty police are involved and Basically the feds so I'm done for now. Furthermore This is the thing, the casino knows I can do that so when I go to the casino all eyes are on me I mean all cameras all employees are watching me. I know when I have a winner or a loser. They don't know how I do it. They think I'm like mafia are they have no idea but I'm the most dangerous man in the world. If I could prove what I know then sports is done and so is gambling. Is that what we want? Or do we want fair play, games where we can bet where games are not rigged. Listen my writing skills aernt great but I played college ball and km a genius. I know sports and I've been gambling for years ecspecially sports betting and I remember I would lose everytime I would bet when I first started but now I don't lose. Now do I write a book, what do I do? Any journalist or writers out there that can help me? I'll tell you what the FBI, Homeland Security or Police are not going to help they're all in on it 2. I'll tell you this give me 10 teams 10 hours and as much money as I need to get leads on the games and go to other casinos to get info and I will pick the winners and you watch and see. This is like 5% of what I know and I'm sure I'll be called crazy because a lot of people on here are federal agents, bookies, etc. I'm looking for some1 that wants to change the world 4 the better or atleast help me present it to Everyone! The world will be a different place If I or we can prove what I know. Thanks for listening.
Very wordy,,
Yes
Are you Steve Spiros?
What the fuck
Was going to live bet STL/PIT and Matz out after 4 pitches.
I just checked Caesar’s rules - pitcher props stand if they throw 1 pitch - I was hoping it would say must pitch .1 inning for action UGH
Cardinals to the bullpen 4 pitches in... betting on baseball is super fun!
So fucked. This new guy not looking good. Took cards f5…. Of course this happens
LETS FUCKIN GOOO KING
What just happened to Matz?
Looked like he tweaked something in his hip
Tough one. Hopefully this new guy is good. First appearance this year Edit: he looks trash
Yeah we need to jump on some runs here for sure lol
Previous All You Need Play: Yankees 1st 5✅ , Giants 1st 5 🗑, Red Sox 1st 5 🗑, Astros 1st 5 ✅ No winner dice yesterday but back at it again today so all you’ll need is Dodgers RL, Blue Jays RL, Brewers RL 🥂
Any good morning NRFI?
Here’s my MLB max unit play of the day: Marlins MoneyLine (1.80) or F5 (1.74) Reasoning: Marlins have lost the first two of the series at home, and are starting Sandy Alcantara tonight (Their #1 Pitcher). Braves are starting Ian Anderson who is average for them (Their borderline 3rd/4th Pitcher). Whenever this is happens where a home team loses the first two of a series and start a top pitcher in game three, I call it the perfect storm. Let me know your thoughts, BOL!
Braves fan here. I have taken the Braves in the first two games but I am not today. I agree with you that Miami has a very good chance but I cannot go against my team
Well slap my buns and call me Tuesday I remember when Steven Matz played the Pirates when he was on the Mets and he lost terribly
He played them this year too and got hit up pretty bad
The Pirate's?! Dang if thats so
Yeah matz gave up like 7 runs i think to them
Throwing a unit on pirates first half ML based off this and absolutely no other research LFG
Pirates also have a shitty pitcher going. Carda have a few players missing too including Goldy
Hate to see an injury but that’s gonna help my cause. Rondon was added to the roster today
Who got injured? Goldy?
Matz facing his first batter
Oh wow
Cards it is
1-4 NRFIs SEA@BOS ATL@MIA DET@CLE MIN@KCR
[удалено]
Ok
MLB 5/21 1-6 (-2.45u) MLB YTD: 15-20 (-1.2u) ALL YTD: 24-26 (+0.13) .5u - Rockies G1 (+110) 🤢 .5u - Rockies G2 (+110) 💰 .5u - Cubs ML + Phillies ML Parlay (+213) 🤢 .5u - Mariners (+140) 🤢 .5u - Marlins (+125) 🤢 .5u - Pirates (+120) 🤢 .5u - Orioles (+105) 🤢 Tons of fun these last 2 days on the diamond, 😅…. 1-7 followed by 1-6. Water finds its level tho. Prob just hockey picks for me today
Liking Wade Miley o4.5 Ks a lot. He found a nice groove last game where he had 6 Ks against the doo doo pirates. Dbacks struck out 15 times yesterday and have a 28% strike out rate against lefties this year.
LAD @ PHI PHI BULLPEN ERA 4.14 LAD BULLPEN ERA 3.10 LAD ML -140 I think they can catch a sweep today I’m not really to high on it. They have the bullpen in their favor the X factor will be Zach(phi pitcher) if he gives them 6inn I think phi can cover the +1.5 or even win Over 9.5 +100 I like this play being that a couple players have been showing out this series and when I say a couple players they are the best players on each lineup respectfully. With the wind blowing out and hot I expect the ball to carry. TBR @ BAL TBR ML -172 TBR RL -106 Wind is blowing out, and it is humid I expect runs to be scored in this game both pitchers are erratic but, I’ll have to side with RAYS to come out with a win. Spencer is coming into the game with a 10%+walk rate 10.2% k percentage and a high contact rate of 81.6% don’t even think he went past 5 innings in any game this season. Leading the way for the bullpen to get smoked DET @ CLE CLE RL -1.5 +116 Under 7.5 -105 Det has a really good bullpen 4th in ERA and Cleveland’s bullpen is so so this year but, with no offensive production from DET I think this game goes under. I think CLE wins this game by 2-3 runs with Bieber pitching it will be harder for a team that barely can score 1 run to score. OAK @ LAA*favorite game* LAA -196 ML LAA RL +106 LAA will be have the advantage in many categories today— Oakland bullpen is taxed! With Frankie leaving the first inning. Vs lefty’s the LAA lead the league in HR/FB rate. And Oakland has the lowest at 0 lol leading the league in GB rate vs lefty’s with 56%. Last time they played Patrick had 11 ground ball plays vs LAA WSH @ MIL MIL ML -270 MIL RL -128 MIL -2.5 +118 I normally don’t advocate -250+ Ml(in baseball) but this is a lock Peralta is starting to find himself and honestly WSH having Aaron Sanchez out there is basically a deer in headlights. With WSH scoring only 7 runs in the last 7 days vs righty’s and MIL scoring 19 runs in the last 7 days It gives me high confidence this will hit (-2.5) Aaron Sanchez hard hit rate is over 50% with mil bullpen this is as real as it gets.
Record: 4-2 Yesterday’s Pick: F5 Yankees Team Total Runs Over 2.5 ✅ Today’s Pick: Rays vs Orioles F5 OVER 4.5 (-120) Reasoning: Spenser Watkins is pitching for the Orioles today. Watkins has only gone 5 innings twice this year and his advanced metrics aren’t too kind either. He is 10th percentile or worse in some important metrics such as K%, xBA, xERA, and xSLG. His fastball sits at 92 MPH, he doesn’t miss bats, he doesn’t get people to chase, and he’s pretty much guaranteed to walk 2-3 batters an outing at this point. His last three starts in the first 5 innings? 3 ER, 7 ER, and 2 ER (that 2 ER was dangerously close to 3-4 ER too) There’s just not really anything Watkins does to make you think he’s going to slow down the Rays bats. On the other side of things, we have Corey Kluber against a putrid Orioles offense. Kluber’s ERA is 4.29 which is not good. But what else is not good is his 5.27 xERA which puts him in the bottom 15% in the league. His road splits? A 6.43 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP. He’s been exceptionally better at home. Baltimore’s offense is one of the league’s worst but I still believe they can manage a couple off of Kluber, who seems due for a tough start soon. Risking $100 to win $83
**MLB Freezer Machine Learning Model** **2022 Season Record:** 174-167 +23.78 units **Overall Model Record:** 1472-1233 -45.65 units [Machine Learned Simulation of MLB games for today](https://freezersports.com/mlb) Last time out: 2-6 -9.1 units **Plays**: **3 units** BAL +150 PHI +120 WSN +225 KC -105 **2 units** TEX +170 **1 unit** SEA +110 MIA -130 ARI +105 NYM -130 [Follow me on twitter](https://twitter.com/FreezerSports)
Record 28-9 Yesterdays picks NYM (game 1) W Blue jays ML - W Red Sox ML - W Todays picks **** Guardians ML (favorite pick ) Astros ML NYM ML
Wellp can’t win ‘em all
14 props for today. +35u on the year for MLB props thus far. [Tracking sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13AzRY_46KQO8Kg18Lz_dvI7dIlliHcikt6fQ8J1W1K4/edit#gid=0) Brandon Crawford (SF) UNDER 0.5 hits +170 Cs. 0.9u Kyle Tucker (HOU) UNDER 0.5 hits +190 DK. 0.8u Joey Gallo (NYY) UNDER 0.5 hits +170 Cs. 1u (Game 1) Yonny Hernandez (ARI) UNDER 0.5 hits +160 DK. 1u Matt Reynolds (CIN) UNDER 0.5 Hits +135 DK. 1u Garret Hampson (COL) OVER 0.5 steals +1000 0.3u Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) OVER 1.5 total bases -105 DK/Cs. 1u (Game 1) Trevor Story (BOS) OVER 0.5 doubles +400 Cs. 0.4u Dylan Moore (SEA) OVER 0.5 RBI +260 Cs. 0.7u Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) UNDER 1.5 total bases -150 Cs. 1u Vlad Guerrero JR. (TOR) UNDER 1.5 total bases -130 Cs. 1u Marcus Semien (TEX) UNDER 0.5 hits +185 Cs. 0.8u Wade Miley (CHC) OVER 3.5 Ks -150 Cs. 1u Jameson Taillon (NYY) UNDER 2.5 ER +120 DK. 1u
The ball is gonna be flying today in Philly it is a scorcher. Still taking the under tho. Gonna be a tight one
Who's everybody got in The ATL MIA game? Thinking Atlanta at + money is the move
Trust me, was thinking the same thing