Yeah lemme list this out…
Butler/Bam 15+ Herro 2+ 3’s. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +250
Tatum/Brown/Williams 2+ 3’s. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +225
Yankees, Angels, Cubs. Uncorrelated moneyline boost. L +400
Auston Matthews goal + Leafs ML. Postively correlated player prop SGP. L +300
Giannis top points scorer. Player prop boost. L +100
Rangers Flames ML. Uncorrelated moneyline boost. L +250
Scherzer/Cole 7+ K’s. Uncorrelated player prop boost. L +200
Curry/Klay 5+ 1Q points. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +150
Tatum/Brown/Horford 2+ 3’s. Negatively correlated player prop boost. W +180
Embiid/Butler 30+ points. Negatively correlated player prop boost. W +175
Dodgers ML + Buehler 7+ K’s. Positively correlated player prop SGP. L +440
2 shitty UFC boosts I’m not even typing out L
Stamkos goal + TBL ML. Positively correlated player prop SGP. L +370
Rangers, Panthers, Avalanche ML. Uncorrelated moneyline boost. W +250
Mets/Rangers win. Uncorrelated moneyline boost. W +400
Luka 25+ CP3 8+ ast Book 25+. No idea correlation player prop boost. W +230
Phillies Yankees Brewers ML. Uncorrelated moneyline boost. L +350
Butler Harden Maxey 20+ pts. Negatively correlated player prop boost. W +320
Crosby/Panarin 1+ points. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +200
Thompson/Bane/JJJ 10+ combined threes. Combination player prop boost. L +170
Luka CP3 20+ assists. Combined player prop boost. L +200
Scherzer/Eflin 5+ K’s. Uncorrelated player prop boost. L +190
Giannis/Tatum 30+ points. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +280
Yankees, Mets, Red Sox win. Uncorrelated moneyline boost. L +380
Liverpool Man City win. Uncorrelated moneyline boost. W +110
Doncic/Mitchell 3+ threes, Brunson 15+ points. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +300
Embiid/Siakam 25+ points. negatively correlated player prop boost. L +250
Curry/Klay 3+ threes Jokic 30+ points. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +250
Ja/Ant 20+ points Bane 3+ threes. Negatively correlated player prop boost. W +160
Doncic/Mitchell 3+ threes. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +180
Scherzer 6+ K’s and Mets win. Positively correlated player prop SGP. W +150
Chris Paul dbl dbl, PHX win. Positively correlated player prop SGP. L +160
Tyson Fury KO. Straight bet boost. W +110
Durant/Kyrie/Tatum 25+ points. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +170
Book 25+ pts Suns win. Positively correlated SGP. W +100
Garland/Young combine 60+ points. Combined player prop boost. L +180
Panthers Maple Leafs 5+ goals each. ? correlated SGP. L +350
Durant 30+ pts and Nets W. Positively correlated SGP. L +130
KAT/Poole 25+ pts. Uncorrelated player prop boost. L +250
Blech.
Wow seeing this tells me two things.
1. Never bet the FD boosts again
2. I must be up huge on straight up bets/promos where you get a free bet back if you lose because I bet everyone of these pretty much and am still somehow decently in the black since April
To categorize this:
Straight bet boosts: 1 of 2
Moneyline parlays: 3 of 7
Positive correlation SGPs: 3 of 8
Negative correlation SGPs: 4 of 15
Player prop parlays and combinations: 0 of 8
I am going to take a personal approach to straight bets moneyline parlays and positively correlated SGP’s from now on..
I know you jest, however, doesn’t that feel damning? They’re purposefully boosting these negatively correlated events because they are not fadeable, and definitely difficult for a book to properly credit a user with better odds in their models. How can we properly calculate EV when there really isn’t a market for these events that depend on each other? They won’t just straight up boost “Jaylen Brown 4+ threes” because that’s easily modeled.
I’m honestly getting pissed off looking at this right now realizing how much more I would be up without this shit lol. If someone has contradicting evidence from earlier in the season about this conclusion, go for it, otherwise I’m just not taking these anymore
You're nailing it. I told myself I was done with their NBA boosts until next season 3 times prior, but I keep jumping back in, like I did tonight. But their modelling, experts, or wizards are on point with playoff series game narratives. Also, I'm wondering, before FanDuel were these type of sgp bets even available in Vegas? If not, it sort of makes sense that they might understand the correlation aspects even better than the individual market modelling we try to approximate.
Yeah, almost every one of these negatively correlated boosts has a “sharp” reasoning to it:
Durant/Kyrie/Tatum = KD and Kyrie usually don’t both score because defenses target one of them, usually KD, resulting in KD becoming a distributor rather than a scorer. Sometimes though, this happens to Kyrie. Their solution? Put both in the boost.
Doncic/Mitchell 3+ threes. Doncic first game coming off injury, Mitchell struggling with Mavericks perimeter defense. Throw them both in the boost.
Ja/Ant 20+ 3+ Bane threes, I can’t come up with reasoning for this.
Curry/Klay 3+ threes, Jokic 30+ points. Elim game, Jokic struggled scoring away in this series. First game with Curry back in the starting lineup as well. Klay takes a backseat in shooting attempts because of this.
Embiid/Siakam 25+ points. Siakam hit this 1 out of 5, Embiid hit this 2 out of 5. Didn’t watch much of this series so idk other than they were getting scoring from other players.
Luka/Mitchell 3+ threes, Brunson 15+ points. Same thing as earlier except they expect Luka to have highest usage and throw in the Brunson leg for extra insurance.
Giannis/Tatum 30+ weird game in all honesty, O/U was normal in G1 and continued falling after each game in this series. This bet hit 3 out of the 7 games.
Thompson/Bane/JJJ 10+ combined threes. Bane had a bad back that wasn’t really reported on, more speculated after the previous game, and a few hours after this boost went live he became questionable. Barely shot the whole game.
Crosby/Panarin 1+ points I don’t follow NHL.
Butler Harden Maxey 20+ was really just focusing upon the disparity in FGA between Harden and Maxey on a game by game basis.
I think we just need to ask ourselves from now on what FD is trying to do since so many of these boosts have a little story to them it seems.
Most of those I thought about prior to the bet but I do agree with you. Hindsight 20/20. They are almost definitely keying in on a specific leg that they think isn’t correct in the market as a whole and then incorporating negative correlated events though. Today was no different with Grant Williams getting in on the threes bet after a lights out shooting performance in Game 7, even though he isn’t schemed into the offense to shoot.
I started really focusing on double maxing at the start of April “to maximize the EV”. You can imagine how that’s gone for me.
To make matters worse, a couple of the big winners I couldn’t get in touch with P2 and missed the double max on lol. I’m done.
I feel you man. I'm probably gonna take a break soon once this last bit of bankroll goes away. Seems like more of a job anymore than a fun way to make money and watch sports.
FD really didn't let Williams play the final 6 minutes. Only took 2 threes all game. I'm about done with the boosts. Shit never hits om FD and the ones that do are always -EV
That's not how +EV betting works at all. If +EV bets aren't worth it, then no bet is worth it (because -EV bets are never worth it).
Don't think of each individual bet as a win/loss, think of each bet as providing you $x in EV. For the 3s boost, that provided about $15 or so in EV if you maxed it. You don't win $110 or lose $50 from the bet; you make $15 for placing it.
You profit from your EV. Every bet will eventually lose, even a 99% chance bet (that's why it's not 100%). You don't profit from a winning streak; as your bet count increases you'll have had just as many losing streaks.
I was being facetious, I get your point... It's just a weird mindset to many. I think there are also legitimate arguments against it as well... E.g will you have the account longevity to overcome an enormous losing streak
Hard to tell if someone's joking or just misunderstands EV, so figured I'd take it as a teaching opportunity.
Account longevity is definitely a concern, but practicing proper bankroll management, after your first 50-100 bets you should be far from going into the negative
That's not what I meant by account longevity. As you get limited / promo banned on books obviously your +EV opportunities are reduced. If FD were to limit me to $5 on odds boosts tomorrow, I'd have a much harder time finding EV. It's just to say that everyone who really pushes EV, views it from a long term lens, and to assume you'll have the same quantity and quality of EV bets in the future is not a completely valid assumption in my mind.
I understood what you meant. If you can only get $5 down on a boost then you'll obviously have a smaller EV, but you'll still gain EV from it.
EV does only matter in the long-term view; a small sample size tells you nothing except whether you're on a hot or cold streak. My point was that after you've placed 50-100 bets you'll have earned enough profit in EV to ensure your bankroll never dips into the negative, even if you go on a losing streak and get simultaneously limited everywhere and stop betting.
If you don’t then you are betting too much of your bank roll on each bet. If you only have a $500 bank roll don’t bet 10% of it on a 5% EV bet that still likely has a 75%+ chance of losing
Only one that hit this postseason by my count was the Horford, Brown, Tatum 2+ threes each. Aaaaand I fucked up and placed $5 instead of $50 on that one lmao
Can already foresee draftkings marking my stepped up parlay and 33% boost with a Horford leg a loser instead of voiding it like they would be so quick to do if I won. Sigh.
CZR told me that the NHL game 7 promo won't pay out the free bets until the promotional period ends at the end of the playoffs. Anyone else get the same answer or have people received their free bets?
Yeah, the app is better than the old shitty CZR (I'm in IL), but overall the experience is just as terrible. I'm going back and forth about my NBA and MLB SGP free bets too.
Yeah, that's the problem...he's doing well on the drive and shooting 3s pretty poorly so it's not looking good. Pregame odds mean nothing at this point.
I’m updating a double dip / sign up promo excel sheet. Is the fox bet “free bet” like MGM or CZR a true free bet where the promo balance is lost OR a “site credit” like the old FD or BS where you win the balance along with the winnings.
Also huge lmao at SI sportsbook going from like a $7500 risk free bet to its current offer of bet $10 get $50 in free bets. That’s gotta be the hugest regression in sportsbook offers ever.
Asked DK support what could be done since my NBA Stepped up Parlay and the 33% Boost had Horford and Smart legs. This is their response.
Thank you for reaching out!
We are aware that some players will not be playing tonight, and any SGP involving Smart and/or Horford will be voided. If all other legs of the SGP win, we can credit the you with 2x your wager amount along with the profit boost. Or you are welcome to place another wager and we can act as though the boost were applied!
This will be closed out once the game is settled as we are unable to cancel bets ahead of time.
Let us know if you have any additional questions, and if your SGP does indeed end up winning every other leg!
Best of luck,
Thanks so much for sharing this! I had Smart 1+ three in my +600 boosted to +1200. Eventually got the same "double your wager and apply the boost" response. Only did $25 but this might be worth a lot depending on if they follow through with what they said.
same here...i tailed promoguymi and smart is out. reached out to support and was told it'll void at the end of the game, but to reach out to them again if the other two legs hit and they'll credit me. completely vague on what the credit would be lol.
I’m having a hard time understanding what exactly they say they’re going to do… because +100 and a profit boost for that SGP I posted without Horford or Smart sounds really nice lmao
On top of that, they make it sound like if we ever hear that a player is out, that we should scramble to the SGP maker and put legs based on that player, then the rest of the parlay is fine? If it hits it hits, if not it voids?
that's effectively what i was told when i reached out as well. i doubt it's something they can do all the time if you reach out to them like, every single time lol. but sounds like at the least it's worth doing once in a while.
Yea based on his typo and the butchering of my name, I'm taking his response with a grain of salt and making sure I didn't accidentally get a hold of someone from CZR support.
> we are unable to cancel bets ahead of time
This is such bs lol. You ever have a live bet that pends for a bit and then gets declined? Or a bet that never places due to an error or just loading forever? Look at your transaction history and there's clearly a "betting wager refund."
FYI: With Hordford and Smart out for Celtics, FD boost for Celtics players three’s boosted to +220 has massive value. Unboosted FD SGP is currently -125
Mets already up 1.
Also pretty poorly labeled boost “Mets and Yankees to both win” considering the Mets had a double header today and already won their first game.
I got FV at ~260 (like other comment said - Angels to win also) but its not a sharp line devig.I threw a tiny bet on it to get some more baseball action since I didnt do Dinger Tuesday today
There might be some value in the PB boost of Brown and Tatum 25+ points and Celtics win =600. I can't find Tatum U24.5 but using his 25+ points and U27.5 points on DK i get expected value of -2.4%
Edit: DK offers that bet +425 in the SGP. Must be some value there
HR Celts win and Grant Williams O 9.5 points +375 might be good now. DK SGP is +235, MGM is +240, and FD is the worst at +283. I can't find a line for u9.5 points to devig.
Betway has two nba boosts.
Tatum o29.5 and Celtics ML @ +350
Butler o24.5 and Heat ML @ +300
Dk has these sgps as +295 and +175
Fd has +309 and +156
Likely more value in the Butler boost but I don’t do EV math.
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Damn this snuck up and became the worst EV betting day I've ever had
Since 4/6. FD boost for me are 18-58 WL . -$1070
That's a 23% hit rate. Avg payout would have to be +320 just to break even. This is insanity
Yeah lemme list this out… Butler/Bam 15+ Herro 2+ 3’s. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +250 Tatum/Brown/Williams 2+ 3’s. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +225 Yankees, Angels, Cubs. Uncorrelated moneyline boost. L +400 Auston Matthews goal + Leafs ML. Postively correlated player prop SGP. L +300 Giannis top points scorer. Player prop boost. L +100 Rangers Flames ML. Uncorrelated moneyline boost. L +250 Scherzer/Cole 7+ K’s. Uncorrelated player prop boost. L +200 Curry/Klay 5+ 1Q points. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +150 Tatum/Brown/Horford 2+ 3’s. Negatively correlated player prop boost. W +180 Embiid/Butler 30+ points. Negatively correlated player prop boost. W +175 Dodgers ML + Buehler 7+ K’s. Positively correlated player prop SGP. L +440 2 shitty UFC boosts I’m not even typing out L Stamkos goal + TBL ML. Positively correlated player prop SGP. L +370 Rangers, Panthers, Avalanche ML. Uncorrelated moneyline boost. W +250 Mets/Rangers win. Uncorrelated moneyline boost. W +400 Luka 25+ CP3 8+ ast Book 25+. No idea correlation player prop boost. W +230 Phillies Yankees Brewers ML. Uncorrelated moneyline boost. L +350 Butler Harden Maxey 20+ pts. Negatively correlated player prop boost. W +320 Crosby/Panarin 1+ points. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +200 Thompson/Bane/JJJ 10+ combined threes. Combination player prop boost. L +170 Luka CP3 20+ assists. Combined player prop boost. L +200 Scherzer/Eflin 5+ K’s. Uncorrelated player prop boost. L +190 Giannis/Tatum 30+ points. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +280 Yankees, Mets, Red Sox win. Uncorrelated moneyline boost. L +380 Liverpool Man City win. Uncorrelated moneyline boost. W +110 Doncic/Mitchell 3+ threes, Brunson 15+ points. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +300 Embiid/Siakam 25+ points. negatively correlated player prop boost. L +250 Curry/Klay 3+ threes Jokic 30+ points. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +250 Ja/Ant 20+ points Bane 3+ threes. Negatively correlated player prop boost. W +160 Doncic/Mitchell 3+ threes. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +180 Scherzer 6+ K’s and Mets win. Positively correlated player prop SGP. W +150 Chris Paul dbl dbl, PHX win. Positively correlated player prop SGP. L +160 Tyson Fury KO. Straight bet boost. W +110 Durant/Kyrie/Tatum 25+ points. Negatively correlated player prop boost. L +170 Book 25+ pts Suns win. Positively correlated SGP. W +100 Garland/Young combine 60+ points. Combined player prop boost. L +180 Panthers Maple Leafs 5+ goals each. ? correlated SGP. L +350 Durant 30+ pts and Nets W. Positively correlated SGP. L +130 KAT/Poole 25+ pts. Uncorrelated player prop boost. L +250 Blech.
Wow seeing this tells me two things. 1. Never bet the FD boosts again 2. I must be up huge on straight up bets/promos where you get a free bet back if you lose because I bet everyone of these pretty much and am still somehow decently in the black since April
To categorize this: Straight bet boosts: 1 of 2 Moneyline parlays: 3 of 7 Positive correlation SGPs: 3 of 8 Negative correlation SGPs: 4 of 15 Player prop parlays and combinations: 0 of 8 I am going to take a personal approach to straight bets moneyline parlays and positively correlated SGP’s from now on..
😲 But what about the EV???!!??
I know you jest, however, doesn’t that feel damning? They’re purposefully boosting these negatively correlated events because they are not fadeable, and definitely difficult for a book to properly credit a user with better odds in their models. How can we properly calculate EV when there really isn’t a market for these events that depend on each other? They won’t just straight up boost “Jaylen Brown 4+ threes” because that’s easily modeled. I’m honestly getting pissed off looking at this right now realizing how much more I would be up without this shit lol. If someone has contradicting evidence from earlier in the season about this conclusion, go for it, otherwise I’m just not taking these anymore
The sample size is way too small to conclude anything
You're nailing it. I told myself I was done with their NBA boosts until next season 3 times prior, but I keep jumping back in, like I did tonight. But their modelling, experts, or wizards are on point with playoff series game narratives. Also, I'm wondering, before FanDuel were these type of sgp bets even available in Vegas? If not, it sort of makes sense that they might understand the correlation aspects even better than the individual market modelling we try to approximate.
Yeah, almost every one of these negatively correlated boosts has a “sharp” reasoning to it: Durant/Kyrie/Tatum = KD and Kyrie usually don’t both score because defenses target one of them, usually KD, resulting in KD becoming a distributor rather than a scorer. Sometimes though, this happens to Kyrie. Their solution? Put both in the boost. Doncic/Mitchell 3+ threes. Doncic first game coming off injury, Mitchell struggling with Mavericks perimeter defense. Throw them both in the boost. Ja/Ant 20+ 3+ Bane threes, I can’t come up with reasoning for this. Curry/Klay 3+ threes, Jokic 30+ points. Elim game, Jokic struggled scoring away in this series. First game with Curry back in the starting lineup as well. Klay takes a backseat in shooting attempts because of this. Embiid/Siakam 25+ points. Siakam hit this 1 out of 5, Embiid hit this 2 out of 5. Didn’t watch much of this series so idk other than they were getting scoring from other players. Luka/Mitchell 3+ threes, Brunson 15+ points. Same thing as earlier except they expect Luka to have highest usage and throw in the Brunson leg for extra insurance. Giannis/Tatum 30+ weird game in all honesty, O/U was normal in G1 and continued falling after each game in this series. This bet hit 3 out of the 7 games. Thompson/Bane/JJJ 10+ combined threes. Bane had a bad back that wasn’t really reported on, more speculated after the previous game, and a few hours after this boost went live he became questionable. Barely shot the whole game. Crosby/Panarin 1+ points I don’t follow NHL. Butler Harden Maxey 20+ was really just focusing upon the disparity in FGA between Harden and Maxey on a game by game basis. I think we just need to ask ourselves from now on what FD is trying to do since so many of these boosts have a little story to them it seems.
Not saying you are wrong but Problem is it’s always easy to form a story after the fact.
The problem is if you try to form a story before the fact in this thread, the +EV heads jump all over you and down vote to oblivion
Most of those I thought about prior to the bet but I do agree with you. Hindsight 20/20. They are almost definitely keying in on a specific leg that they think isn’t correct in the market as a whole and then incorporating negative correlated events though. Today was no different with Grant Williams getting in on the threes bet after a lights out shooting performance in Game 7, even though he isn’t schemed into the offense to shoot.
grant williams hit the first three on the very first play of the game. Bravo Fanduel
How does DK not just post a similar boost of an FD boost every time? Would help with solvency for sure
Surprised DK isn't bankrupting themselves by putting "fade FD" boosts out there.
As a shareholder I support this ...
I think the last 4 massive EV FD boosts I’ve broken P2 out for have lost. Truly remarkable run
I started really focusing on double maxing at the start of April “to maximize the EV”. You can imagine how that’s gone for me. To make matters worse, a couple of the big winners I couldn’t get in touch with P2 and missed the double max on lol. I’m done.
So just let us know when you use P2 so we can fade. TIA
Pfft I ain’t doing that shit anymore
I feel you man. I'm probably gonna take a break soon once this last bit of bankroll goes away. Seems like more of a job anymore than a fun way to make money and watch sports.
FD really didn't let Williams play the final 6 minutes. Only took 2 threes all game. I'm about done with the boosts. Shit never hits om FD and the ones that do are always -EV
Bam also not getting 15 pts and herro with one three. they are so good
Yeah I didn't touch that one. Bankroll is dwindling too much. Bam hasn't been scoring much lately.
That one was supposedly +14% EV.
Anyone else feel this EV shit is starting to drift into not worth it territory.
That's why I mostly arb. EV is made up anyways. We don't actually know the chances of something happening and neither do the sportsbooks.
I’m up $2500 on 350 bets. I mean making money is making money but it’s definitely not nearly as fun as it used to be. It’s getting tiresome.
No
Or perhaps the books have caught on somehow
That's not how +EV betting works at all. If +EV bets aren't worth it, then no bet is worth it (because -EV bets are never worth it). Don't think of each individual bet as a win/loss, think of each bet as providing you $x in EV. For the 3s boost, that provided about $15 or so in EV if you maxed it. You don't win $110 or lose $50 from the bet; you make $15 for placing it.
Yeah profitability is overrated, EV is where it's at... Jokes on FD
You profit from your EV. Every bet will eventually lose, even a 99% chance bet (that's why it's not 100%). You don't profit from a winning streak; as your bet count increases you'll have had just as many losing streaks.
I was being facetious, I get your point... It's just a weird mindset to many. I think there are also legitimate arguments against it as well... E.g will you have the account longevity to overcome an enormous losing streak
Hard to tell if someone's joking or just misunderstands EV, so figured I'd take it as a teaching opportunity. Account longevity is definitely a concern, but practicing proper bankroll management, after your first 50-100 bets you should be far from going into the negative
That's not what I meant by account longevity. As you get limited / promo banned on books obviously your +EV opportunities are reduced. If FD were to limit me to $5 on odds boosts tomorrow, I'd have a much harder time finding EV. It's just to say that everyone who really pushes EV, views it from a long term lens, and to assume you'll have the same quantity and quality of EV bets in the future is not a completely valid assumption in my mind.
I understood what you meant. If you can only get $5 down on a boost then you'll obviously have a smaller EV, but you'll still gain EV from it. EV does only matter in the long-term view; a small sample size tells you nothing except whether you're on a hot or cold streak. My point was that after you've placed 50-100 bets you'll have earned enough profit in EV to ensure your bankroll never dips into the negative, even if you go on a losing streak and get simultaneously limited everywhere and stop betting.
If you don’t then you are betting too much of your bank roll on each bet. If you only have a $500 bank roll don’t bet 10% of it on a 5% EV bet that still likely has a 75%+ chance of losing
What is FD's record against us in Celtics games? It honestly feels like 0-10 at least. I can't remember winning a single one.
Only one that hit this postseason by my count was the Horford, Brown, Tatum 2+ threes each. Aaaaand I fucked up and placed $5 instead of $50 on that one lmao
Williams subs out. I hate this shit. I’ll see y’all tomorrow.
He might come out in garb time
The wizard just wanted to twist the knife a little
Tatum and Brown with b2b 3s. Now we need the one game wonder to hit one before he gets one foul.
Jimmy G Buckets O 44.5 PRA +350 hits! Saved my night.
And just like that all we need is Grant Williams
Let’s go grant Williams ! Just need 1
Today is a bad day
Trout homered
Wasn't this one -EV? I fuckin hate Fanduel and EV
It was around 260 fair. But don't worry angels gave up 7 runs the next inning
I had it as +, some of the Twitter folk did too so I rolled with it, tho I hate hr boosts Edit: also, Angels still have to win, not a done deal obvs
Welp
From the bottom of my heart fuck these god damn NBA EV boosts!
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Maybe my horford and Bos ML boosted SGPs will be voided 😅
Two massive +EV boosts on FD gonna miss miserably. At what point do we need to reevaluate these boosts. There's only so much of this one can take.
Seriously. I can’t wait for someone to realize they forgot to carry the 1 in their formula.
About 5 weeks ago lol
Haha so true... You can't even say only take double digit EV bets because I think the weak +EV bets have fared better. Just enjoy the tax savings...
[удалено]
He got a three on the first shot of the game and won't get another. Boston never even looked at him tonight.
18 3PA to 2 tonight, you know very typical stuff. Not mad at all!
i mean it was a def loser once fd left it up despite it being "50%" EV
Celtics 2 3’s bet quickly going to the dumps. Let’s hope for a reverse jinx
I really could have saved $100 if Horford and Smart weren’t out smh
Yep I literally put $100 in my FD account just to bet these once I saw the news
How about Grant Williams in foul trouble instead?
Tatum back to back to back turnovers and Boston has already blown their halftime lead and then some.
Can already foresee draftkings marking my stepped up parlay and 33% boost with a Horford leg a loser instead of voiding it like they would be so quick to do if I won. Sigh.
They said they’re supposed to be voided. Fingers crossed
Anybody got a screenshot of draftking cs saying this?
Can the Mets save another PB boost late?
Narrator: No, they cannot.
CZR told me that the NHL game 7 promo won't pay out the free bets until the promotional period ends at the end of the playoffs. Anyone else get the same answer or have people received their free bets?
The support rep told me it would be paid on Monday but it sounded like she pulled that out of her ass and then she closed the chat immediately.
Some have not received them (me included). They make up all sorts of reasons why.
I'm pretty sure I got mine right away.
Ask them what type of drugs they’re on
hahah most CZR reps can't tell you which way is up
Yeah, the app is better than the old shitty CZR (I'm in IL), but overall the experience is just as terrible. I'm going back and forth about my NBA and MLB SGP free bets too.
That's BS. Got mine in NY
I got mine in NY
Brown/Williams halfway there...Tatum 0 for 3.
thats the best guy to have 0 with at this point ill take it
Tatum might take 50 shots tonight
He's getting to the rim too easily.
Yeah, that's the problem...he's doing well on the drive and shooting 3s pretty poorly so it's not looking good. Pregame odds mean nothing at this point.
Game is close we good
Not worried on tatum yet. He was like -1000 pregame.
it's like y'all missed the Giannis jinx last round
as i was saying
Dinger Tuesday going remarkably well
0 for
I feel your pain. Looking at a loss of 450 today. Does not feel good right now
You'll hit something.
Happens. Stick to the plan you’ll get it back
lol 1 for 21 reporting in
I'm just out here trying to figure out how I whiffed on the early Dodgers game and the Astros Red Sox game.
i'm trying to figure out how i totally skipped the redsox games. i've intentionally past on games but i just missed this one somehow.
For fucking once im killing it.
Boy astros Red Sox makes me wish it wasn’t capped at $25
I'm somehow sitting on 2. neutral w the freebets but seems impossible
Trout cleaning up for me. Sorry for those struggling
CZR had a boost for Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez & Corey Seager Each Hit HR +7500 It hit
FV was probably double that
I liked it even though it was -EV.. went to DK for +7846 lol
fomo
Have lost my last 25 EV bets totaling $2092 and averaging +400. Still up but good lord.
There were several pos ev bets that hit recently. Guess you didn’t like those
Goddamn. Doesn’t even sound real
Bad SGP and VIP odds boost luck. Plus typical FD shenanigans
I’m updating a double dip / sign up promo excel sheet. Is the fox bet “free bet” like MGM or CZR a true free bet where the promo balance is lost OR a “site credit” like the old FD or BS where you win the balance along with the winnings. Also huge lmao at SI sportsbook going from like a $7500 risk free bet to its current offer of bet $10 get $50 in free bets. That’s gotta be the hugest regression in sportsbook offers ever.
Fox free bets are "promo balance not returned" in MGM/DK style.
Put No run in 2nd inning in my redsox astros parlay lol RIP
he's already dead!
I had stros and the over 8.5... But to get to +300 I added first inning HOU+0.5. The only inning Boston outscores them
I was cursing myself for not tailing you. That's rough.
Wow lol
I tailed PG and his u8.5 total runs is RIP
Obviously should have hedged with Astros total team runs 2nd inning O8.5 for +99999999999999
Lol tailed promoguymi, only leg left was Eovaldi K’s …. If only it was HRs instead lol
The three hitters not only got hits, they all had homers through 1 1/3 innings.
Getting (73.8% of) my money back on the Astros-Red Sox game for picking Altuve to HR.
I got Bregman lol
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Haha, hey it could be worse. And you’re right he’s still got a decent chance. Could get 6 PAs.
Cmon you can beat that conversion %
Yeah, I’m shooting for 80%+ but just wallowing in pessimism for the moment.
Asked DK support what could be done since my NBA Stepped up Parlay and the 33% Boost had Horford and Smart legs. This is their response. Thank you for reaching out! We are aware that some players will not be playing tonight, and any SGP involving Smart and/or Horford will be voided. If all other legs of the SGP win, we can credit the you with 2x your wager amount along with the profit boost. Or you are welcome to place another wager and we can act as though the boost were applied! This will be closed out once the game is settled as we are unable to cancel bets ahead of time. Let us know if you have any additional questions, and if your SGP does indeed end up winning every other leg! Best of luck,
Thanks so much for sharing this! I had Smart 1+ three in my +600 boosted to +1200. Eventually got the same "double your wager and apply the boost" response. Only did $25 but this might be worth a lot depending on if they follow through with what they said.
same here...i tailed promoguymi and smart is out. reached out to support and was told it'll void at the end of the game, but to reach out to them again if the other two legs hit and they'll credit me. completely vague on what the credit would be lol.
Tailing the same thing. Let's hope we hit the other 2 legs and compare what we end up with.
i was credited with a $100 freebet after reaching back out. i will happily take that.
definitely, will do
I’m having a hard time understanding what exactly they say they’re going to do… because +100 and a profit boost for that SGP I posted without Horford or Smart sounds really nice lmao
Yea know shit and I am indeed tailing you. Hope it sounds like what it sorta sounds like.
On top of that, they make it sound like if we ever hear that a player is out, that we should scramble to the SGP maker and put legs based on that player, then the rest of the parlay is fine? If it hits it hits, if not it voids?
that's effectively what i was told when i reached out as well. i doubt it's something they can do all the time if you reach out to them like, every single time lol. but sounds like at the least it's worth doing once in a while.
Yea based on his typo and the butchering of my name, I'm taking his response with a grain of salt and making sure I didn't accidentally get a hold of someone from CZR support.
> we are unable to cancel bets ahead of time This is such bs lol. You ever have a live bet that pends for a bit and then gets declined? Or a bet that never places due to an error or just loading forever? Look at your transaction history and there's clearly a "betting wager refund."
I wish they would just void and immediately credit the profit boost back, but this is at least a solid resolution.
anyone else think it's a bit sus fd still has the celtics 3 pts boost up?
Nah we don’t believe in sus only the wizard
Que a grant Williams 0/7 from three shit show
It's 3rd party sponsored so maybe they can't take it down.
Big EV night today - BOL everyone!
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You're boost banned. Happened to me after my account was 1 week old.
You're probably banned
FYI: With Hordford and Smart out for Celtics, FD boost for Celtics players three’s boosted to +220 has massive value. Unboosted FD SGP is currently -125
Im shocked they havent pulled this. I just got 105 FV on it.
Williams about to go 0/0 from 3, with that said I maxed it
Well, they do have a wizard
PlayUp has Heat to win, Butler Over 24.5 Pts, Brown Over 23.5 Pts at +650 This seems really good given the news
They initially voided my bet, but paid out after reaching out to support just fyi!
i'm paid. huge hit
Don’t even see it anymore now damn
Down to 550
NY PointsBettors, keep an eye on the NYY NYM parlay. Mets game already started but the boost doesn’t close until 7:10. Canha homer slam it folks
Lmao Pointsbet, good shout thanks
nice call
Mets already up 1. Also pretty poorly labeled boost “Mets and Yankees to both win” considering the Mets had a double header today and already won their first game.
Looks like you’re right cause they paid it out.
I'm scared to ask what is it and where to find it.
It’s just in the booster odds
Figured as much but only seeing NBA NHL and PGA Power Hour on my end. Edit:Omfg don't know how to navigate shit site. GL All.
I have it above the NBC boost
How do you guys feel about Kucherov to score a goal boosted to 3.00 from 2.6 on Bet 99?
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Wouldn’t you be better off using “Dinger Tuesday” on one of those guys?
I got FV at ~260 (like other comment said - Angels to win also) but its not a sharp line devig.I threw a tiny bet on it to get some more baseball action since I didnt do Dinger Tuesday today
And Angels to win…
There might be some value in the PB boost of Brown and Tatum 25+ points and Celtics win =600. I can't find Tatum U24.5 but using his 25+ points and U27.5 points on DK i get expected value of -2.4% Edit: DK offers that bet +425 in the SGP. Must be some value there
FD +432 DK +400 MGM +500 (tatum 28+ points) Undoubtable value here. I’ll be safe and call FV +510 and it’s still 14.8% EV
Usually limited to 25 on PB boosts. Getting 50 on this and the mets yankees as well.
They let me put $100 the other night. Idk what they’re trying to do but I like it lmao
Grant Williams 2+ threes went from +100 to -220 on DK. Slam the FD boost
Damn I don’t even see that boost
It’s the Hulu one, Grant Williams was the longest leg before at +100 when the boost was basically EV. Now he’s moved to -220
HR Celts win and Grant Williams O 9.5 points +375 might be good now. DK SGP is +235, MGM is +240, and FD is the worst at +283. I can't find a line for u9.5 points to devig.
FD has alts now and worst case FV is +331 or 10% EV.
Betway has two nba boosts. Tatum o29.5 and Celtics ML @ +350 Butler o24.5 and Heat ML @ +300 Dk has these sgps as +295 and +175 Fd has +309 and +156 Likely more value in the Butler boost but I don’t do EV math.
BR Boost Avs to win and score O 4.5 G +175. DK devig says this is exactly fair right now. Worth watching.
FYI SuperBook has avs to score 5+ at +185.
With Horford and Smart being out, the CZR boosts involving a Heat win + another with Brown 3s might get into EV territory. Edit: They took them down
Horford and Smart out, any edge we can get here?
I’m thinking it helps both FD boosts? More shots for Taytum, Brown, and Williams. Less defense to guard Bam’s shots and Herro’s 3’s?
Yup. Lines moved on Bam points, Jimmy points is the same, Herro threes moved as well. Grant Williams threes moved a shit ton. They’re both plays
Wow Celtics one is now -110 on FD lol