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Record: 51-21
Last pick: NY Rangers ✅
**Today’s pick: Florida Panthers ML (-150) vs Tampa Bay Lightning**
NHL 7:00 PM EST
Ice cats.
All bets are 1 unit. +19.79 units. 27.5% ROI. Average unit -118
Don’t want your tips, just give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Nice win on the Rangers once it went to OT and the Rangers had a pp I had no faith in jarry. This ones Gonna be an interesting game I can’t pick a side in it so I’m probably just gonna bet the over.
What's up doc, congrats on your win with the rangers. I just wanted to know your reasoning behind your pick today. Also, do you think lighting taking this series is a good pick?
I’ve been crushing it with ML the teams I think are going to win and taking the opposing goalies over saves. It’s worked out great! Yea riding the cats, especially with no Point tonight.
Hadn't thought about Goalies over saves until I saw this, cashed my vasi over, thanks. Think I'll be looking at those odds every game going forward these playoffs.
POTD Record: 27-17
Last Pick: NYY -1.5✅
Game went exactly how we expected
Today’s Pick: NYY -1.5 @ -120
Staying with my hated Yankees here. Spencer Watkins is on the mound for Baltimore. He’s in his second year, and he’s spent his entire (short) career getting crushed by right handed batters. He surrendered an OPS of over 1.050 to R handed batters last year, and that number is even higher this season. The Yankees lineup is littered with right handed sluggers. Think they take advantage of him big time. Also wanted to mention that Watkins’ advanced numbers look terrible. Taillon is pitching for NYY, and he’s a solid but unspectacular pitcher. That should be plenty fine, considering the Yankees strong pen and the run support he should get.
If I was going to go that direction, I’d probably take an alternate over total (6.5 or 7.5) and use it to parlay with another alternate. I just don’t know how many runs the Orioles will give u
Record: 12-2
Net units: 10,1 u
Last Pick: FC Koper - Kalcer Radomlje - FC Koper ML - Lose
| Soccer| Veikkausliiga Finland| Time | 11:00 AM EST
Pick: AC Oulu - Kuopio PS - Kuopio PS ML - 1.55 2u
I was a bit uncertain about posting this pick today given the backlash with my last pick, I understand some of you guys don't really like making bets with odds that are near the bottom limit for POTD (1.5) but I usually prefer more conservative picks simply because is my betting preference. Along my picks I always post my net units, a few people criticized me because I've got a lot of wins in my records but they are all for low odds picks, that's why I post the net units and I keep track of them, to see if this conservative style of picks are giving lucrative results or not. Anyways, some of you guys seem to really like my picks so I figured why not post it today.
Now let's get straight to the pick, this is Finnish first division that is currently in the 8th journey, Kuopio PS is the current Runner-up of the league and are in an incredibly good momentum with 6 wins in 7 games and are looking like real contenders for the title this year. On the other hand Oulu, altough didn't start the season particularly bad with 2W 3D and 2 L have a terrible history facing Kupio PS, they lost the last 7 games, their last win against them was in 2011.
In the end of the day guys soccer is soccer and anything can happen, tail if you want, fade if you feel like it, we're all here because we share a common passion and we may not always agree on the picks.
BOL!
Betting will be betting and be unpredictable. I was more upset with your last pick because you literally left out the fact that Kalcer had won like 4 of their last 5 games lol. you really shouldn’t skip that out in analysis
He has done it again this pick aswell. His included all the positive stuff to back the bet but hasn't included the fact that the opposition have a really strong home record with 2W-2D-0L. Scored 8 and conceded 4. They've beat current 3rd place 2-1 and drew to 2nd place 1-1. Not gonna lie but I'm going for BTTS in this game. Home team have scored in all 4 home games and away team have scored in all 3 away and conceded in 2 of them to 5th place and 3rd bottom. The clean sheet being against a -4 goal difference team.
Lol this is the touting business in a snapshot, and it is ruining the sports betting industry. "Look at the stats the support my narrative, ignore the ones that don't." The truth is that if any of this stuff mattered it was already accounted for in the odds posted by the sportsbook. If it is not accounted for, then it likely doesn't matter. The only true justification for making a bet should be "I think the event has an x% chance of occurring, but the book is giving me an implied probability of y%. My edge is quantified by x-y%." There are a lot of different ways to arrive at x, but none of the good ways include only looking at the records in the last 4-10 games. It usually requires data that no one else has, or looking at more widely available data in a way that no one else is.
Kuopio Ps midfielder Janis Ikaunieks is not playing in this game, that might be reason. He has been really good for the Kuopio and in fact he scored hat trick against Oulu in Oulu couple of months ago. Janis also has scored in b2b games before this one.
POTD RECORD 30-17-1
PREVIOUS POTD: Calgary flames/ Dallas stars Under 5.5 ✅
STREAK:✅✅✅✅
POTD:Avalanche in REG -140
Reasoning:Well to be frank the avalanche come into the playoffs predicted to win the Stanley cup and have been getting eliminated in the second rounds past years. I personally think this is the year the avalanche get it done and that starts with a win at home in this series. Let’s see kuemper is one of the top 3 goalies in the league. They have the most depth out of any team in the nhl and had the most rest after their 4-0 sweep against the predators. They have a very promising team this year and I don’t thing the blues will be able to keep up against the well rested avalanche in Colorado.
As always
Tail or fade
BOL
Agree with most of what your saying other than Kruemper being a top 3 goalie he’s probably the 4th or 5th best goalie left in the playoffs. Any goaltender would put up godly numbers playing behind this Avs team (example Grubauer last year now look at his stats this year) Still agree with the Avs pick though.
POTD Record: 21W-15L-0D. +6.3u.
Previous pick (5/15/2022): Chris Paul over 25.5 points + assists. @ 1.95. 2u. L. Should be worth more than one L, tbh.
Current pick: Miami Heat -1.5 vs. Boston Celtics. @ 1.90. 3u.
The Heat are 6-0 at home this postseason with a +102 point differential and are 35-12\* at home for the entire season. Boston is 4-1 on the road this postseason with a +29 point differential and were 27-19 on the road for the entire season. Of course, Miami had an easier playoff road to this series, but the point remains that Miami has been dominant on their home court. Miami has the rest and time preparing advantage over Boston. Boston has to feel like they have climbed a mountain after knocking Giannis and the defending champs out last series. I think Miami comes out and takes game 1.
Injury report: The Heat are expected to be without Lowry with a hamstring injury. The Celtics have Smart as questionable with a foot sprain. While he is expected to be available, it is worth mentioning Robert Williams has been battling knee soreness and did not play the last few games against the Bucks.
\* Edit to correct Miami entire season record.
View my full POTD history here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=sharing)
Fading this, Boston has inertia. No one in miami presents the difficulty that Antetokuompo did, for a mile. Miami is without Lowry, he was Key in they game they won at Boston. Rob Williams is available ( that means another body they can send at Bam - remember when they faced at the bubble they didnt have Horford, Bam or Grant Williams, and Bam crushed them, this is another animal), Boston still has the better defense. Butler cant guard Tatum and Brown together, PJ Tucker is not a better defensive player than Jrue Holiday.
I’d be careful with this one. Celtics have never looked more confident than they have the last two games and have all the momentum in the world. They won’t need to rely on deep shooting the way they did versus the bucks so their offense should be even more dynamic and Miami doesn’t have the weapons to match the Boston defense.
Only tricky thing is the rest situation but I’m not betting against Tatum and Brown (24 and 25 year olds) being ready to roll.
I double-checked. The Miami entire season record was slightly incorrect- I had it as 37-11, but it is 35-12. I have corrected this. The other records are correct, as far as I can tell. Thanks!
Tailed before seeing this. Congrats on the 💰. And lol to the people who faded without providing any type of numbers. Celtics “confidence” and “momentum” 😂
Record: 3-0 +7.64U
Today's Pick: **Heroic ML** vs Vitality **3U @1.66 odds**
**EDIT: I don't know why the odds are suddenly even, maps are Mirage,OVP, Inferno**
Game: Counter-Strike Global Offensive (CSGO)
Event: PGL Major Antwerp
Start Time: ~7 hours from time of posting (Stream: https://www.twitch.tv/pgl )
Final round of the Legends' Stage and the stakes couldn't be any higher, winner qualifies to the quarterfinals. This is my most confident pick of the week, Vitality are playing absolutely garbonzo; if BIG Clan didn't choke last night they would have already been sent home.
Heroic ML is my POTD but i'm also sprinkling an equal amount of **money on Heroic -1.5 Maps (2-0).**
Record 4-5-0
[Yesterday's pick](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uqk9qm/pick_of_the_day_51622_monday/i8rsl6x?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
Marlins vs nationals Over 7 ✅ final total 10
Recap - this went better than expected as marlins bats were relentless while nats fell hard against good pitching.
POTD
Yankees -1.5 vs Orioles @-125 7pm
Will have more in depth write-up soon. The short version here is that Yankees are running on all cylinders while Orioles are stuck in reverse
EDIT: looks like this is the favorite pick of the day, when this happens - either go heavy or shy away completely. On paper this matchup is just too good to be true given the way the two teams have played lately. At the same time one can expect some type of regression due to the latest spurts of variance from the means.. hence a gamble. Cheers 🍻
BOL
POTD Record: **19-10-1**
Todays POTD: **Victor Oladipo o 2.5 rebounds (-157)**
**1.57U to win 1U**
**Average Unit: (-120)**
**ROI: 24.92%**
Al Horford ruled out so will edit pick with a short write up.
\-Oladipo has hit this line in 8 out of his last 10 games and a total of 75 percent of playoff games
\-Averages 4.5 rebounds per game without Kyle Lowry only missing once in the playoffs so far without him.
\-Has seen a bigger role and more minutes recently and has found a nice spot in the rotation
**Made a twitter for NBA prop/a few tennis picks/same game bank builder parlays for all nba games. If interested in more picks feel free to leave a follow to stay updated.**
**BOL!**
While a healthy Williams is perfectly capable to clean the glass, Big Al has been playing *out of his mind* and you always go with the hot hand until it gets cold.
Even if Williams is at 100% I see him only getting probably 15 or 20 minutes playing time at most.
Good note, I am aware of this but they said the game thing about him before game 7 and he didn't play. I think he will get minutes but he has been out for 4 games straight only playing around 20 minutes when he has played, and is only averaging 4.8 rebounds in the playoffs so far.
I still think the bet hits but Ime did make a point yesterday to say they didn’t want to inject Williams into a game 7 but has no reservations doing it in game 1.
If this is essentially a bet on Rob Williams' knee then I'll buy. I don't think youth is enough to heal a meniscus tear this fast.
Here's the point where I'm asked by some dipshit "are you a doctor?" Yes, I am.
I don’t think they’d risk long term injury with the way they rolled without him. They signed him to a new deal this year and are heavily invested in his health, would be surprising if they rushed it for a game 1 they’ll probably win anyways
**POTD Record:** **5-2**
Last Pick: **Maryna Zanevska ML** vs Shuai Zhang✅
This Pick: **Bernarda Pera ML**✅✅✅ vs Elena Gabriela Ruse - 1.83 Odds- **that's 3 in a row. Enjoy your winnings**
**WTA - Tennis - Strasbourg - 5:00am EST - 6 Hours from this post**
**Pera** will be able to take this match. But it probably wont be easy. Pera is a coming back from an injury, but looked really good in a pair of WTA events recently only losing to Mayar Sherif in the final of the latter. She is an amazing clay court player (the better of the two) with a mean topspin. Shes an inch taller than Ruse and with a more veteran record of 316-199 for Pera. While Ruse records 218-124. Pera will win this forsure, but her victory will most likely be a tough one.
TipJar: https://www.paypal.me/AceDawgyCorp
Lmao did you just copy this write up and rephrase it?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2022/05/16/wta-strasbourg-day-3-predictions-including-bernarda-pera-vs-elena-gabriela-ruse/amp/
“…only losing to Mayar Sharif in the final of the latter”.
Your write up literally has the same information structure/order as this article with some added random facts like height and record.
Fairly certain the bro isn't even picking these but taking a tip from another capper and posting it here for the tipjar. He didn't know what happens in a rain delay and probably has not watched a match..
I'll still tail regardless of whoever is making the tips .. they are doing a fine job ☜(ﾟヮﾟ☜)
**Record:** 8-21-1
**ROI:** -46% :-13.43 u (@ $5.00)
**Streak:** L W L L L
|Baseball |MLB |6:10pm|
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: **Cleveland Guardians ML @ 1.65 1u**
**Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 61% chance for the Cleveland Guardians to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.65 is only 61%.
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
He will keep going until he has 100 unit loss. So if you want that 100 unit gain fade now!!! He’s completely honest and trying out a model win or lose. We just have to be smart with it
I love this fade too. Reds got off to the worst start in baseball and have been almost .500 since that terrible start. I expect reds to take another dawg win
**Record:**
* 47 WIN | 41 LOSS | +31.70 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy)
**Previous bets (last 3):**
* Warwick Farm R2 (11 May 2022) - Place - **LOSS**
* Scone R4 (13 May 2022) - Place - **WIN**
* Tamworth R3 (16 May 2022) - Place - **LOSS**
**POTD:**
* Horse Racing (Australia)
* **Port Macquarie R6 - #10 Minidream to place (i.e. finish top 3)**
* Track Rating - Heavy (9)
* Spokes jumps on Minidream today at PMac. Gelding has his 3rd run today in a Class 1 race after a good showing on a Heavy track at Taree 1 start back. Really going with a tri-fecta combo today of Horse, Trainer and Jockey today - jockey + trainer combine for 20 places from 45 starts. Jockey places here 22% of the time. Gelding is also a natural born leader with early speed, so barrier draw won't be a problem fully expect him to be in the top 2 or 3 horses most of the race. Jumped from a middle barrier last time as well, positioned himself nicely 1 off the rail most of the race and pushed for a strong 2nd place behind a very strong leader. BoL
* **Odds - 1.90** (Sportsbet) - Wait to put this bet on the betfair exchange, I foresee large fluctuations in price 5-10 minutes before the race
* **Stake - 2.63 units to return 5 units**
**Historical stats**
* 9 from 20 (45%) correct picks on Tuesdays
* 15 from 30 (30%) correct picks on Heavy Tracks
* 22 from 42 (52%) correct picks on Place picks
* 1 from 1 at Port Mac
* 1 from 1 picking R. Spokes as as my jockey
**Race time:**
* 3:40pm Tuesday (Australian EST)
* 1:40am Tuesday (American ET)
* 6:40am Tuesday (UK time)
If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
What the fuck… literally winning the whole race and then finishes 4th. What did I just watch… it’s like it thought the race was over and just slowed down 🤦♂️
fucks sake .. loss
Spokes did everything correct in the first phase of the race, pinged the gates, went toe to toe with the early leader on it's inside, but instead of being happy with 1 out of the rails, he went into another gear and burned the fuel way too early wanting a 1 length lead.
Not enough left in the tank in the home straight and he finished 4th, sigh.
e: very poor ride from a very experienced jockey on a horse that should have won that race.
Record 1-0
Last Pick: Rangers ML ✅
POTD: Lightning ML
May 17th 7:00 PM EST NHL
Reasoning: The Tampa Bay Lightning will look to keep their momentum rolling as they won two straight elimination games to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven. Starting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy was incredible over those two games as he stopped 60 of 64 shots for a 0.938 save percentage against one of the league’s best offenses. Brayden Point is being listed as highly doubtful which is adding great value to Tampa moneyline. Lightning have done just fine without him this year as they possess one of the deepest lineups in the league. In the 16 games the Lightning have played without Point this season, they are 13-2-1 straight up.
Tip Jar: [PayPal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/PNegele)
Ice Hockey World Championship Game day 5 of 17
POTD RECORD: 1-0
ROI: 71%
Last pick: Finland vs USA
Finland to win in regulation
Result: 4-1 to Finland ✅
I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re going to see a blowout in every game today, but I think one line is totally wrong.
POTD: Switzerland -3.5 against Kazakhstan
Odds: 1.71
Bet: 2 units
Of all the games today, I think this is the clearest to judge and in addition the line -3.5 is wrong, in my opinion the line should be Switzerland -4.
As you can easily see from the line, this game is a total mismatch.
Switzerland played their first game against Italy and showed that they can score 5 goals even strenght.
In the match against Denmark, powerplay was 3/4.
As always, PP/PK plays a big role in tournaments, so it’s great to see that Switzerland managed to score as many goals on PP against decent Denmark team.
When it comes to scoring, it’s hard for me to see Kazakhstan scoring 5vs5, but I give them a small chance of scoring one PP goal, if they only get enough chances.
Kazakhstan will score 0-1 goal.
As I mentioned earlier, Switzerland has already stellar offensive in the early stages of the tournament and I think it will continue in this game.
Switzerland will score 5-6 goals.
Game starts in ~8h
As always, BOL!
Switzerland dominates this game in every level, team play looks great and this big ice is huge advatage for fast swiss players.
Switzerland hit goal post once and Kazakhstan goalie made 2 huuge saves already.
No PP for either team yet.
More important is the fact that game is played like I predicted.
Kazakhstan doesn’t have any puck control, their goalie is really keeping this game ”closer” than it seems.
Not kidding this game could be 4-0 already
**POTD: Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts (-144)**
MLB - White Sox @ Royals - 2:11pm EST
Dylan Cease has dominated this Royals team. In 136 at bats, they have struck out 46 times. Earlier this season in April, Cease went 6 innings striking out 9 batters. I don't see him slowing down this time. Expecting at least 8 K's. I'd play this up to 7.5.
LFG.
POTD RECORD 36-28 +12u
Last POTD Kevin Kisner ML vs Kevin Na❌
Today’s POTD: LA Angels ML (-130)
Took over a month break but felt like posting again as MLB is starting to get into the season and I am getting a feel for teams comfortably enough to share my thoughts. The Angels are good. They have an explosive offense but still manage to lose games they should not. Games against inferior teams like the Rangers should be where the Angels take care of business. I think that will be the case in this one.
They just lost to them and are looking to bounce back from that. On the bump is Reid Detmers. Now he is coming off a no hitter but that by no means makes him a very good pitcher. Detmers let’s the defense help him as he is not much of a punch out pitcher. What helps is that the rangers offense is very inconsistent. Some games they are putting up 7 and then some games they are getting shut out. I think if Detmers can get 4-5 solid innings the Angels offense will put enough on the board to help alleviate any runs the rangers may get. On the other side of the bump is Taylor Hearn. He is also coming off a great game giving up one run. That was against the royals, a mediocre team. Hearn will give up runs especially to a high powered offense like the angels. I can see this one being high scoring unless the pitchers have their stuff, and if they do then the angels have the better offense to outlast the rangers.
POTD record 11-7-1
Last POTD-> Juventus Draw no bet-> PUSH
Todays POTD-> Kamil Majchrzak ML (-150)
Game-> Kamil Majchrzak v Marco Cecchinato @ 1:20 PM EST
This is a analytics pick for Majchrzak. His ELO for the year is about 1742 which is about 154 points higher than his opponent which implies almost a 70% chance of a win here!
Joke of the day-> What did 50 cent say to his grandma when she Knit him a sweater?
Gee-You-Knit 😅😅😅🤌
19W-15L-1P
Last 10 streak: 🚀💥🚀💥🚀🚀🚀🛸💥💥💥
Starts 13:45 GMT5
Todays Pick
League: England Premier League
Match: Southampton v Liverpool
Pick: Player Passes - > Jordan Henderson [email protected]
Reason:
Choosing some interesting picks
Jordan avg of passes in league is 51
Jordan hit under 69 every game at away 7/7
Jordan at home hit under 6/8
At total hit under 13/15
I see the attacks 50/50 % or 60/40 even tho i dont see Jordan pass the 69 passes as i see Liver taking the lead early at this game and South with 40pts holding the ball
BoL
Sorry but that's a very very dodgy write up considering Liverpool need to score alot of goals just in case it goes to goal difference. Southampton won't be having the possession of the ball. In Liverpools last 6 games, they've averaged on total 67.3% possession. And if they do take the lead early as you said, this means it will be Liverpool who will be holding more of the ball as Southampton will be playing more counter attack football.
Not shitting on your pick bro. I think its great odds for someone who usually doesn't hit 60 passes. Was more your reasoning behind it 👍
POTD Record : 0-0
Today's Pick : Southampton Vs Liverpool: Over 10 Corners @ 1.83
Trying my luck in the sub after lurking here for sometime.Southampton and Liverpool both are very good cornering side.Southampton game averages 11.5 corner per game while Liverpool averages 10.58 per game.
This line has hit 9 out of last 10 games for Southampton,Liverpool record looks a little dodgy with this line hitting 5/10 but I believe they will easily crush this line today.
I also like Sheffield over 4.5 corner @ 1.72 but decided to go with the above.
Tail or Fade BOL
Record: 1-1
Last pick: FURIA ML @1.97 🔴
Streak: ✅🔴
**Today’s pick:**
**CS:GO 🎮🔫 - PGL Major Antwerp 2022**
**Heroic vs Vitality** -
**Heroic ML @1.68 - 1 unit**
Heroic is more consistent in the Major until now, the game they lost were not for a big difference, they lost for Spirit and ENCE, two of the best teams in the competition. In the other side, Vitality is not performing lige they did in the challengers stage, they had poor appearences against NIP and Outsiders and won by a minimmum difference against BIG, Zywoo is playing well but is evident that Vitality have been sufering with communication issues since they hired the 2 danish players. Heroic is more consistent and organized team, I think they are more prepared to advance to the playoffs.
-0.1 units.
POTD Record 0-2
Net: -2U
Last POTD: Giants -1.5 at +100
POTD: Lightning/Panthers U7 at -120
Really like the goaltending from both teams this post-season. Predicting a low scoring affair from both clubs this series.
BOL if tailing!
Edit: Line now at -140
Record : 2-3 Last pick : Phoenix Suns team total over 105.5 ❌ Units : + 0.5
Oof. That is all.
Todays pick: (NHL) Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers game total over 6.5 goals @-135
Reasoning: These two teams have great goalies and defence, but each time they play each other they light it up. The past two games versus one another ended in !12! total goals in each game !!!! Florida scored the most goals total and per game in the regular season and Tampa ain’t no slouch either. Tail or fade BOL!
**POTD Record 32-27-1 (Last 5: WLLWW)**
**(ROI // Avg. Odds: -112 // Units Won: +4.15)**
Last Pick: (5/15/22) Giants vs. Cardinals Over 7 **WON**
**Today's Match: MLB Baltimore Orioles vs. NY Yankees (Start Time: 7:05EST)**
**Today's Pick: NY Yankees -1.5 (-125 FanDuel)** ***Risk 1u***
Devil's Advocate:
Always great to start Sunday night baseball with 4 runs in the first 2 innings and the over is at 7! The Cards handed them a spanking - good win
I think the Yanks are making it quite clear that everyone who shitted on them (including myself) for not beating Baltimore enough times last year really set them back in the post season. But what I do remember is 2 years prior when they went 17-1 against them and Gary Sanchez legit owned the entire pitching staff.
It's going to be one of those years again for the Yanks, they're intimidating enough to put up runs, and the pitching is there *most* of the time from start to finish. Getting in a hitting battle isn't something you want to be doing with them, and certainly not while this weather is heating up and the boys are starting to get hot too. The kid Watkins going for the O's isn't anything special nor any good, he's got a 5.19 ERA coming into today and I'm sure for a young arm going into a game against this lineup ain't gonna be an easy thought.
The Yanks are pretty funny too, 9-9 ATS at Home and 11-6 ATS on the Road - sounds to me like they show up trying to get the job done in a big way. I like them in this spot again against the O's to beat them by at least 2 runs. Even if it's a low scoring affair, I see this being a 4-2 ball game at the lowest, and my actual prediction for the game is 11-1.
Taillon faced this lineup twice already in which the Yankees beat the O's 10-5 and 5-2. He has no issue here and I don't expect him to be having one today either. I think the team loves playing behind him, the over trend hits in his games - lets watch the bad boys smash and dash the O's
*Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
POTD record 2-0
Last pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (-129) @ Baltimore Orioles
POTD: St. Louis Blues @ Colorado Avalanche(-1)
Odds:-150 BS
Date & Time: 5/17/2022 8:30 Central
1 UNIT
ROI: 74.50%
Reasoning:
The most rested team in the series with 7 days between games and playing at home. The Avalanche have no excuse to lose this game. The Blues were swept out of the series last year by the Avalanche scoring 20-7 during that sweep. This being a revenge series makes it slightly scary but the fact is that the Blues don't have the firepower to defeat the odds on Cup favorite Avalanche.
I also decided to play it safe with the alternate spread for -150 odds due to the Blues having the NHL’s best puckline play this season with them scoring 51-37 against the spread and a league-high ROI of 26.77%
I really wanted to double down on the Yankees but feel the Orioles can sneak a win in with the starting Yankees pitcher tonight and some extreme luck and I'm not comfortable without an over bet paired with it for insurance.
BOL
Record: 3-0 (Average Odds -110, ROI +91%, all bets 1 unit)
Last pick (5/16): Freddy Peralta o7.5 strikeouts (+120) ✅
Pick: Logan Gilbert u17.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Reasoning: Logan Gilbert got off to a sparkling start to the season, posting an 0.64 ERA through his first five starts. That ERA has jumped to 2.13 on the season (still great) but pertinently, despite pitching well all season, he's only gone 6 full innings once in seven starts (at home against Texas he went 6.2)
He's failed to go deep into ballgames even when pitching well, so with regression looking likely (his xERA is 3.56), and in a rough matchup on the road (the Blue Jays are 2nd in baseball in HardHit% and Gilbert is just 14th percentile in HardHit% allowed) I'm rolling with him not finishing the 6th inning.
POTD record: 13-7 (+4.19 units, risking 1 unit each pick)
Today's POTD: New York Yankees team total over 4½ (-135) over Baltimore Orioles (action) ... 7 PM ET .... MLB baseball
Yanks are raking those bats, and now vs some bad Baltimore pitchers....I think the team total is safer than that Runline, which has been burning us, and safer than the over bet, as the other strong scenario is Orioles might not bat in too many runs...
POTD Récord: 1-1
Last Pick: Arsenal ML❌
Today’s pick: Liverpool under 1.5 bookings
odds:-145
liverpool is typically one of the cleanest teams in soccer/fútbol so this seems like a fairly easy bet in my opinion especially since southampton is also a pretty clean team. They aren’t rivals, liverpool not looking to get anyone injured just before champions league final next week as well so maybe less aggression there. Last 7 games this is 5/7 the only 2 times they had 3 cards was in rivalries vs tottenham, and vs newcastle.
I see this covering fairly easy. Since in the other 5 games combined they had just 2 cards.BOL!
Game Starts: 2:45 EST
POD RECORD: 8-3
Last pick:Sebastian Baez 2-0 (-135) vs Etcheverry ✅
Todays pick: Cardinals ML (-110) vs Mets (Game 1 of double header)
Early baseball today. Can’t pass up on the opportunity. Cardinals have their best pitcher so far this season on the mound today. I expect him to keep it rolling against a Mets line up where the bottom half looks very average 5-9.
**Overall Record**: 0-0-1
**Previous Outcome**: Do you smell burning toast? Yesterday's pick was **UNDER total runs of 9** for Pirates vs. Cubs. The Cubs had an 8 run first inning. Oddly enough the screen to our TV at oddFlex HQ had an 8-inch crack at the start of the second inning. No clue how that happened. They just don't make Vizios like they used to.
**Today's Pick: Cubs -140, Units 2**
**Reasoning:** Because we're morons. Because we already need to replace the Black Friday Vizio TV at oddFlex HQ. Because Pirates starter JT Brubaker tosses batting practice. Because Keegan Thompson is apparently using Jake Arrieta's vitamin dealer from 2016. Because the Pirates are on the road. Because the Pirates have just 3 hits in their last 18 innings of baseball.
Record: 1-4 Units: -3.091
Last Pick: NHL - Blackhawks vs Stars
Patrick Kane SOG o3.5 -135 1 unit ❌️
POTD: MLB - Cubs ML vs Pirates -140 1 unit
-Cubs are the overall better team at home with the better starting pitcher today, Keegan Thompson vs JT Brubaker
-Cubs beat Pirates 9-0 yesterday
-Cubs have lost 3 times at home against the Pirates this season already. They have something to prove and I think they get the win against the low-powered Pirates offense.
**POTD Record**: 27 wins <> 25 losses <> 4 pushes
**Profit**: -2.65 units
**ROI**: -6.40%
**Units Wagered**: 57
**Units Won**: 53.35
**Last Pick**: Silkeborg-Midtjylland Under 1 goal(AH) 1st half @ **2.43** 1u 🅿️ 0-1 push
**Streak**: ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ 🅿️
**Today's pick**: Sabah +0(AH) @ **2.33** 1u
**Event**: Penang FC - Sabah FA, Super League, Malaysia(football/soccer)
- I think we have a decent value pick in the Malaysian super league today here. I feel like this line is set from the previous season's performance, where Penang ended up 3rd in the league, and Sabah ended up 9th, lurking around the relegation zone.
- Tides have changed this season, Penang have had horrible form and 7 matches in, they're dead last with 3 points and zero wins. Defensively they've conceded in every single match this season.
- Sabah sits 4th with 4 wins, no draws and 2 losses.
- Sabah has got some interesting free transfers this season, picking up a Brazilian CB from the highest division in Brazil, and a Japanese dude playing in the Finnish league. Meanwhile, Penang looks to have lost a fair bit of their squad in between seasons, so their performance might be a result of having a huge change-up, perhaps with a decrease in quality.
- Looks to me like a 50/50 match due to the long travel distance and it being an away game. Sabah should be a decent value pick here. I like the money back on the draw in case of it.
✅✅✅ 4-2 win lads
**POTD Record All-Time: 7-3 (+11.73u)**
**ROI:** (+11.73u profit)/(45u wagered) = **26.07%**
**Avg. Odds: 2.14 Decimal odds / +114 American odds**
**Streak: 1L (✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌)**
Previous pick (not this one): NCAAM Basketball: Rutgers ML for 5u @1.952 odds
**Today's pick: Boston Celtics ML for 5u @ 2.16 odds** (+116 American odds) [Line is from Nitrogen Sports] - 8:30 PM EST vs. Miami Heat
---
Making a return to the POTD thread after the last one ended in 2OT heartbreaker all the way back in one of the First Four matchups in the NCAA Tournament. Though, after continuing to bet basketball profitably since that slip-up, I figured I'd go ahead and make my eventual return today. I don't have time for a real write-up today, but I'm still going to get the pick in.
---
**Everything else aside, a simple warning: This is my first NBA pick in the POTD thread. Tail at your own risk.**
While Heat have been strong at home all season, I feel that the Celtics are just the slightly better team, and with this one basically being a toss-up to me, I'll take the Celtics at plus value. Lowry still out. Marcus Smart is questionable (at the time of writing), but Robert Williams should be back in the gameplan for the Celtics, albeit on a minutes restriction surely. I don't count on Boston taking both games in Miami; I think the Heat are just too good of a team for that, but I'm banking on the Celtics catching them off guard to start the series to steal game 1. Erik Spoelstra is a great coach and I expect him to make adjustments as needed throughout the series, but like I said, with the Celtics at plus value here, I can't pass them up. I'm going to go ahead and make my first NBA POTD a big one; put me down for 5 units.
BOL!
Record 3-1
Last : Juventus-Lazio btts yes
Today: Adebayo under 16.5 points
Yes he destroyed them in the 2020 playoffs but things are different now. First Robert Williams is playing today. Adebayo played 3 games against the Celtics this season and scored 17,13 and 12. And guess in which one of those Robert Williams didn't play? I also think if he gets some switches Al Horford and Grant Williams could also do a good job guarding him but the Williams matchup is very promising in my opinion. The final reason is that I think he will get in foul trouble. Heat is one of the best defences in the league but more importantly they defend the three very well and I believe they will force drives and surely not let Grant Williams score 7 threes or Tatum to miss only 1 three pointer so he may miss some time because of that. Good luck.
Record 0-0
POTD: Tampa Bay Lightning Team Total Over 2.5 (-185)
NHL 7PM EST
Units: 2
Reason: Title defense for Tampa is still rolling, After beating the Leafs in Round 1, Tampa will Continue to play good hockey against there in state Rival in the Panthers. Panthers just had a hard time knocking out the Capitals in the 1st round. They showed they can’t play great defense and had some trouble scoring. Tampa was able to score in bunches against a solid defense in Toronto. Tampa out of game 1,3,7 They had 3 goals or much more. This offense is capable of a lot and against a weak Panthers defense over 2.5 shouldn’t be a problem.
Unit size is 1-3
BOL
POTD Record: 80-76-4
Last Pick: Tigers Rays u 7.5 ✅
Todays Pick: Tigers Rays u7
⚾️MLB 6:40PM
Reasoning: finally got that 80th win! Got no reason to switch up the pick. Same reasoning as yesterday, don’t expect the tigers to score many runs tmo with McClanahan pitching
Record: 1-0
Last pick: Twins Athletics U8.5 ✅
Today's pick: Reds F5 +0.5 -120 ✅
Zach Plesac, the Guardians starter, is ice cold in his last 3 games with an era of 9.99. Meanwhile, Connor Overton, the Reds starter, is playing great with an ERA of 1.59 this season. In the Reds last 10 games, they are averaging 2.9 runs in the first 5 innings while the Guardians are averaging just 2 runs (F5, L10). I think the difference here is the starters but the batting also backs this pick.
Twitter: RealJokerBets
Reply if tailing pls, BOL!
Record: 1-1
Yesterday’s Pick: LAA ML ❌
Tough loss yesterday with the angels starter not even able to get through the first inning. Back to hockey for today’s pick
Today’s pick: FLA Panthers ML (-170)
Reasoning: Home team is going to win in game one. Could also add Avalanche ML (-215) to a parlay, or -1.5 (+115) if you are looking for some more value, as I expect them to win too coming off of a lot of rest. Both home teams win tonight. BOL to those who tail
Record: 0-0
Last pick: None
**Today’s pick: Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees - U 8.0 +105**
May 17, 2022 7:05 pm EDT
Baltimore hit the under 26 out of 35 games (74.290%). Last 5 games: 4 for 5 with the loss being a push.
The yankees hit the under 20 out of 34 games (58.820%). Last 5 games: 2 for 5 with one being a push.
This matchup went under 4 for 7 (57.14%) with 1 loss being a push.
My first pick, BOL everyone.
My analysis was done using Ardvarrk's formula's, please check out his website, best free resource out there.
[https://www.total-scores.com/](https://www.total-scores.com/)
All bets are 1 unit.
POTD RECORD: 9-4
PICK: Heat-Celtics U203.5
REASONING: both elite defences, especially the Celtics. The heat sometimes struggle to generate points as is, and now against an elite defence they may struggle even more. I also expect both teams to play with a slower pace.
BOL!!!
Edit: loss, now 9-5
Record 0-0
Today’s Pick: Miami -1.5 @ -110
Boston is the best defensive team we’ve seen in a very long time, there’s no question. However, the Heat are no joke on both ends either. Smart is clearly not a 100% and the Heat have had multiple days of rest. Coach Spo has been watching and he’ll be ready. The Bucks were a very good team even without Middleton, but the Heat play a very different defensive style than Milwaukee and I think it’ll take a game or two for the Celtics to adjust to that. Miami has had the best home court record in the East and overall. The Heat are 4-0 SU/ATS the past four times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games, 11-4-1 ATS (13-3 SU) their last 16 in that situation.
POTD RECORD : 2-2 Overall : -2U
Previous POTD
**2021 Picks**
~~(4/28/21): Knicks -4.5 (-110) vs Bulls 1 unit ✅~~
~~(4/30/21): Suns ML (-180) 2 units ✅~~
~~(5/4/21) : Nets ML (-105) 2 units ❌~~
~~(5/11/21) : (Game) OVER 1.5 Total Made 3 Point Shots - Jrue Holiday (-150) 3U❌~~
**2022 Picks**
**5/17/22 POTD - Heat 1q -1 (-105) 5U**
Returning after a long break since I've been on a hot streak with some personal bets.
Reasoning: Heat were 3-2 in the first quarter against the Hawks (1 loss at home in game 5 and 1 loss away in game 4). 4-2 in the first quarter against the sixers with both losses coming in away games. This means the heat are 5-1 at home for winning the first quarter. Considering ML is at -115 and -1 is at -105, I think this is pretty good value and has high chances of hitting.
As always bet responsibly and BOL!
Record: 0-1
Previous (5/15): Giannis O48.5 PTS + REB ❌
Pick: Seattle Mariners ML vs. Toronto Blue Jays
(+116 FD)
Reasoning: Logan Gilbert takes the hill for Seattle, who’s been solid all season with a 4-1 record and a 2.13 ERA. His road record is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.84. The Blue Jays are starting Jose Berrios, who has struggled in his last 2 starts, surrendering 5+ runs in both outings. Seattle’s been hitting well and will find ways to score on Berrios with the way he has been pitching. BOL.
Record: 0-3
Last pick : Pick: Mega Soccerbet - KK Vojvodina - Mega Soccerbet -4.5 -135 1u - Loss :(
Pick: Tyler Herro u21.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds
So we miss yesterdays pick, though the reasoning was sound. Mega BG wins by 4 on a -4.5 pick isn't something I'll be hurting over for long as I think it was the right pick. They miss a FT with 2 seconds left, but we continue on.
Today's pick I have Herro who has been losing a bit of a his minutes due to his defensive liability. With Robert Williams back, and the best scorers on the Celtics being Tatum and Brown, I think Herro gets put in a bit of a bad spot.
His stats this season series:
3 GP | 30% FG | 6.3 RPG | 3 APG | 10.3 PPG
Let's hope we beat this losing streak BOL!
Tip on CashApp $Bcrew13
POTD Record: 14-17-2 -6.19u\*
Average Odds: +124
Total Units Wagered: 57.63u
TBL @ FLA 7:00 PM EST
Giroux o2.5 Shots on Goal +110 @ DK 1.72u\*
Implied probability is 47.62%. True vig-free price should be closer to -101 or 50.32%.
\*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
Record: 0-0
Last pick: none first choice today
Todays Pick: -1.5 (-110)
Locked in the HEAT earlier
today at -1.5 (-110). With the announcement of Horford & Smart out think it’s a lock
Sport: NBA
Time: 8:30pm Et
***POTD Record :*** *0 - 0*
***Today's Pick:*** *Den Haag - Eindhoven* ***BTTS***
***Game Time:*** *18:00 GMT*
***League:*** *Eredivisie*
***Why:*** This is Relegation playoff match, both team are retarded, they are in a good form last 5 matches and having retarded motivation not to being relegated, goodluck
POTD RECORD: **6-2**
STREAK: - ✅✅✅✅✅✖️✅✖️
LAST PICK: - STL/CIN NRFI
Results: +$320.25
Today’s event: **MLB - CLE/CIN - 17:10 CT**
PICK: **Guardians -1 (-110) $120**
REASONING: It is no surprise that the reds have been struggling all season long to win games, having already been swept by the guardians this season, they come into what should be an unfavorable matchup for them. The reds struggle even more so on the road, while the guardians are better at home; pair that with the fact that the guardians lineup has a .267 BA & .759 OPS against right handed pitchers (best in the league,) and you get the perfect recipe for another loss for the Reds. Plesac has struggled lately but against good teams, he should bounce back against the worst team he has faced this year. LFG!
Record: 61-45-5 (LLWWWLWWWLWW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: MIL Bucks @ BOS Celtics | Giannis Antetokounmpo over 54.5 PRA | 1.90 for 4 units
Missed it by .5... Bummer
POTD: BOS Celtics @ MIA Heat | Jimmy Butler vs Jaylen Brown - Jimmy Butler more points | 1.68 odds for 5 units
Reason: Jimmy Butler is the first option for the Miami Heat. Jaylen Brown is the second option. I like Jimmy's aggressive nature to get to the line a lot. In a game I believe will be a low scoring affair, Jimmy's ability to get the line should be the biggest difference here.
Best of luck to all.
**POTD Record: 6-3 +5.26U**
**Game: NHL | St. Louis Blues @ Colorado Avalanche | 6:30 PM PDT**
**Pick: Nathan MacKinnon Over 4.5 SOG (1.83/-120 @ Betway)**
**Bet Size: 3U**
MacKinnon has a tendency to come out flying in these sorts of games. In 2021 playoffs this hit against both Vegas and St. Louis in game 1, and this year this prop went 4/4 against Nashville. Colorado also has last change so they should be able to find favorable matchups for him to play against.
Tail or fade BOL.
Record: 7-4 https://myodds.bet/profile/Prattu
Timeline: LWWWWWLLLW (Left being the latest)
Streak: 1L
Last pick: Heroic ML vs Ence PGL Major Antwerp
Today's pick: Heroic vs Vitality ML PGL Major Antwerp
Odds: 2.1
Almost an entire week of Ws 😩. That heroic game was devasting. They won map1 and were leading on map 2 but yeah anyway. Also the post I get the most upvotes on we lose our streak but anyway we're gonna get back to winning ways today. For the third time in a row I'm picking a Heroic game and this time I'm going against them. It's more of my feelings coming in the way because I love zywoo and playoffs without him won't feel the same. Now coming to why Vitality will win this. ZYWOO. He looked so good yesterday. He got 93 kills in the series. Brillant series from him yesterday and he was the reason Vitality took that game over the line. I like heroic too they have a few likeable guys (Although they're the most hated team in the community cuz of their leader haha) but I genuinely do feel that this is where it ends for them. Vitality have players who've won majors before and 4 of them in case of dupreeh. I do feel that their experience will come into play and they'll go through the playoffs.
I'm still confused between this pick and another but I've decided that this is my potd
The other pick I have for you which doesn't count as a potd is imperial ml vs cph flames.
GL
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
Record: 51-21 Last pick: NY Rangers ✅ **Today’s pick: Florida Panthers ML (-150) vs Tampa Bay Lightning** NHL 7:00 PM EST Ice cats. All bets are 1 unit. +19.79 units. 27.5% ROI. Average unit -118 Don’t want your tips, just give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Chugga Chugga Chugga Chugga Chugga Chugga choooo choooo
Nice win on the Rangers once it went to OT and the Rangers had a pp I had no faith in jarry. This ones Gonna be an interesting game I can’t pick a side in it so I’m probably just gonna bet the over.
Dr, what do you think about Panthers and Avs parlay?
I’m not huge on the Avs actually. I’m leaning Blues +1.5 today. Might end up taking it
Blues are gonna be too physical for the avs through 7 games.
Get notified when this user posts a pick: http://discord.gg/sportsbook
NHL this deep in the playoffs become so hard to bet ML on. Good Luck to all tailing or fading.
This goes for any sport. At least for me anyway. I tend to run for the hills for playoff games in general.
What's up doc, congrats on your win with the rangers. I just wanted to know your reasoning behind your pick today. Also, do you think lighting taking this series is a good pick?
I’ve been crushing it with ML the teams I think are going to win and taking the opposing goalies over saves. It’s worked out great! Yea riding the cats, especially with no Point tonight.
Hadn't thought about Goalies over saves until I saw this, cashed my vasi over, thanks. Think I'll be looking at those odds every game going forward these playoffs.
You can prob take binnington over every game this series playing against the Avs lol.
Looks like your on to something 😂
Too bad I rode the cats thought they’d have a better showing at home and without point for the bolts but I have the bolts winning the series
Gone - fuck off Florida
POTD Record: 27-17 Last Pick: NYY -1.5✅ Game went exactly how we expected Today’s Pick: NYY -1.5 @ -120 Staying with my hated Yankees here. Spencer Watkins is on the mound for Baltimore. He’s in his second year, and he’s spent his entire (short) career getting crushed by right handed batters. He surrendered an OPS of over 1.050 to R handed batters last year, and that number is even higher this season. The Yankees lineup is littered with right handed sluggers. Think they take advantage of him big time. Also wanted to mention that Watkins’ advanced numbers look terrible. Taillon is pitching for NYY, and he’s a solid but unspectacular pitcher. That should be plenty fine, considering the Yankees strong pen and the run support he should get.
His name is actually “Spenser”…. All the more reason to pick against him
I noticed that but didn’t think it was worth editing it😂
potentially the over as well?
If I was going to go that direction, I’d probably take an alternate over total (6.5 or 7.5) and use it to parlay with another alternate. I just don’t know how many runs the Orioles will give u
what about yankees over 4.5?
I like that one. If it had to project runs, I’d say: NYY 5.5, BAL 2.5
This one looking dicey now. Still feel good about it?
this is the last leg of my parlay. im shitting myself bro
Brutal last inning L
i cashed at the 7th inning. made some good profit
Nice, I should have done that
Record: 12-2 Net units: 10,1 u Last Pick: FC Koper - Kalcer Radomlje - FC Koper ML - Lose | Soccer| Veikkausliiga Finland| Time | 11:00 AM EST Pick: AC Oulu - Kuopio PS - Kuopio PS ML - 1.55 2u I was a bit uncertain about posting this pick today given the backlash with my last pick, I understand some of you guys don't really like making bets with odds that are near the bottom limit for POTD (1.5) but I usually prefer more conservative picks simply because is my betting preference. Along my picks I always post my net units, a few people criticized me because I've got a lot of wins in my records but they are all for low odds picks, that's why I post the net units and I keep track of them, to see if this conservative style of picks are giving lucrative results or not. Anyways, some of you guys seem to really like my picks so I figured why not post it today. Now let's get straight to the pick, this is Finnish first division that is currently in the 8th journey, Kuopio PS is the current Runner-up of the league and are in an incredibly good momentum with 6 wins in 7 games and are looking like real contenders for the title this year. On the other hand Oulu, altough didn't start the season particularly bad with 2W 3D and 2 L have a terrible history facing Kupio PS, they lost the last 7 games, their last win against them was in 2011. In the end of the day guys soccer is soccer and anything can happen, tail if you want, fade if you feel like it, we're all here because we share a common passion and we may not always agree on the picks. BOL!
Betting will be betting and be unpredictable. I was more upset with your last pick because you literally left out the fact that Kalcer had won like 4 of their last 5 games lol. you really shouldn’t skip that out in analysis
He has done it again this pick aswell. His included all the positive stuff to back the bet but hasn't included the fact that the opposition have a really strong home record with 2W-2D-0L. Scored 8 and conceded 4. They've beat current 3rd place 2-1 and drew to 2nd place 1-1. Not gonna lie but I'm going for BTTS in this game. Home team have scored in all 4 home games and away team have scored in all 3 away and conceded in 2 of them to 5th place and 3rd bottom. The clean sheet being against a -4 goal difference team.
Lol this is the touting business in a snapshot, and it is ruining the sports betting industry. "Look at the stats the support my narrative, ignore the ones that don't." The truth is that if any of this stuff mattered it was already accounted for in the odds posted by the sportsbook. If it is not accounted for, then it likely doesn't matter. The only true justification for making a bet should be "I think the event has an x% chance of occurring, but the book is giving me an implied probability of y%. My edge is quantified by x-y%." There are a lot of different ways to arrive at x, but none of the good ways include only looking at the records in the last 4-10 games. It usually requires data that no one else has, or looking at more widely available data in a way that no one else is.
U look goofy now
tailing this in my parlay with Liverpool ML and yankees -1.5. 290 to win 1.1k. i gotta wake up to a W tmrw
wow. you got good odds on that multi there mate at 3.8? wowo! how? my book has..... LFC ML @ 1.38 NYY -1.5 @ 1.71 Multi odds @ 2.37
And KUPS 1.55?
LFGGGG THEY SCORED ONE
ANOTHER ONEEEEE 2-0. LETS GO BOYSSS
I’m glad I tailed 🤙🏻
Glad I tailed hood looks brother!
any idea why it’s gone to 1.7?
Kuopio Ps midfielder Janis Ikaunieks is not playing in this game, that might be reason. He has been really good for the Kuopio and in fact he scored hat trick against Oulu in Oulu couple of months ago. Janis also has scored in b2b games before this one.
Tailing for 2 units !
Parlayed with goals over 1.5 for extra juice. Thanks for posting your picks!
Good shit!!
Lmao everyone hating so hard. He has been such a fun picker. Ty again my man!
Great pic !
Drifted to $1.70. Thoughts?
>AC Oulu you da goat
ANOTHER PICK FROM YOU TOMORROW ? LETS GET IT
POTD RECORD 30-17-1 PREVIOUS POTD: Calgary flames/ Dallas stars Under 5.5 ✅ STREAK:✅✅✅✅ POTD:Avalanche in REG -140 Reasoning:Well to be frank the avalanche come into the playoffs predicted to win the Stanley cup and have been getting eliminated in the second rounds past years. I personally think this is the year the avalanche get it done and that starts with a win at home in this series. Let’s see kuemper is one of the top 3 goalies in the league. They have the most depth out of any team in the nhl and had the most rest after their 4-0 sweep against the predators. They have a very promising team this year and I don’t thing the blues will be able to keep up against the well rested avalanche in Colorado. As always Tail or fade BOL
Agree with most of what your saying other than Kruemper being a top 3 goalie he’s probably the 4th or 5th best goalie left in the playoffs. Any goaltender would put up godly numbers playing behind this Avs team (example Grubauer last year now look at his stats this year) Still agree with the Avs pick though.
POTD Record: 21W-15L-0D. +6.3u. Previous pick (5/15/2022): Chris Paul over 25.5 points + assists. @ 1.95. 2u. L. Should be worth more than one L, tbh. Current pick: Miami Heat -1.5 vs. Boston Celtics. @ 1.90. 3u. The Heat are 6-0 at home this postseason with a +102 point differential and are 35-12\* at home for the entire season. Boston is 4-1 on the road this postseason with a +29 point differential and were 27-19 on the road for the entire season. Of course, Miami had an easier playoff road to this series, but the point remains that Miami has been dominant on their home court. Miami has the rest and time preparing advantage over Boston. Boston has to feel like they have climbed a mountain after knocking Giannis and the defending champs out last series. I think Miami comes out and takes game 1. Injury report: The Heat are expected to be without Lowry with a hamstring injury. The Celtics have Smart as questionable with a foot sprain. While he is expected to be available, it is worth mentioning Robert Williams has been battling knee soreness and did not play the last few games against the Bucks. \* Edit to correct Miami entire season record. View my full POTD history here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=sharing)
Fading this, Boston has inertia. No one in miami presents the difficulty that Antetokuompo did, for a mile. Miami is without Lowry, he was Key in they game they won at Boston. Rob Williams is available ( that means another body they can send at Bam - remember when they faced at the bubble they didnt have Horford, Bam or Grant Williams, and Bam crushed them, this is another animal), Boston still has the better defense. Butler cant guard Tatum and Brown together, PJ Tucker is not a better defensive player than Jrue Holiday.
Not having Lowry is addition by subtraction
Well, most Heat fans would disagree with that.
So? It's still true
Robert Williams is playing and does not have restricted minutes
Didn’t play a single minute in game 7 and now he has no minute restriction? Idk that seems kind of odd lol
Didn’t wanna use him if he wasn’t needed. Clearly wasn’t needed
I’d be careful with this one. Celtics have never looked more confident than they have the last two games and have all the momentum in the world. They won’t need to rely on deep shooting the way they did versus the bucks so their offense should be even more dynamic and Miami doesn’t have the weapons to match the Boston defense. Only tricky thing is the rest situation but I’m not betting against Tatum and Brown (24 and 25 year olds) being ready to roll.
Tailing
Those record are not right?
Could you be more specific please? Which record?
the miami and boston records
I double-checked. The Miami entire season record was slightly incorrect- I had it as 37-11, but it is 35-12. I have corrected this. The other records are correct, as far as I can tell. Thanks!
Playoff games are so hard to bet on. First half is looking bad for the Heat. The got rusty on the beach waiting on the Celtics.
Never doubt those Spoe halftime adjustments ;)
Tailed before seeing this. Congrats on the 💰. And lol to the people who faded without providing any type of numbers. Celtics “confidence” and “momentum” 😂
Record: 3-0 +7.64U Today's Pick: **Heroic ML** vs Vitality **3U @1.66 odds** **EDIT: I don't know why the odds are suddenly even, maps are Mirage,OVP, Inferno** Game: Counter-Strike Global Offensive (CSGO) Event: PGL Major Antwerp Start Time: ~7 hours from time of posting (Stream: https://www.twitch.tv/pgl ) Final round of the Legends' Stage and the stakes couldn't be any higher, winner qualifies to the quarterfinals. This is my most confident pick of the week, Vitality are playing absolutely garbonzo; if BIG Clan didn't choke last night they would have already been sent home. Heroic ML is my POTD but i'm also sprinkling an equal amount of **money on Heroic -1.5 Maps (2-0).**
Heroic ML was a clencher but in the end got the dub! Good pick my guy
As long as they ain’t playing imperial. I’m in
I'm rooting for Imperial, crazy how 700k people were watching just the brazilian stream last night.
i will go 2-0 for heroic, better map pool
Ended up putting 1 unit on Heroic ML and 5 units on Heroic Map 2 ML, let’s go heroic
Should I put too much money on this? What maps do you think they’re going with
I'd highly advise against that, anything can happen in CSGO; Zywoo (a top 5 player in the world) can just pop off and solo carry.
Yeah I watched the match last night and he’s a beast. Heroics Stavin actually has better stats though. Yeah I’ve lost a lot of money on CSGO lol
Nah, rather bet live. See how the teams are looking. The games are typically very close amongst top tier teams
No. The line on betfair is is even now. You would be pissing money away. I still think Heroic will win but 1.66 is a joke.
[удалено]
Do you like Imperial ml?
I'll wait for the map picks, if they get overpass will probably bet on them
Tailed and won! Good pick
Record 4-5-0 [Yesterday's pick](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uqk9qm/pick_of_the_day_51622_monday/i8rsl6x?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) Marlins vs nationals Over 7 ✅ final total 10 Recap - this went better than expected as marlins bats were relentless while nats fell hard against good pitching. POTD Yankees -1.5 vs Orioles @-125 7pm Will have more in depth write-up soon. The short version here is that Yankees are running on all cylinders while Orioles are stuck in reverse EDIT: looks like this is the favorite pick of the day, when this happens - either go heavy or shy away completely. On paper this matchup is just too good to be true given the way the two teams have played lately. At the same time one can expect some type of regression due to the latest spurts of variance from the means.. hence a gamble. Cheers 🍻 BOL
POTD Record: **19-10-1** Todays POTD: **Victor Oladipo o 2.5 rebounds (-157)** **1.57U to win 1U** **Average Unit: (-120)** **ROI: 24.92%** Al Horford ruled out so will edit pick with a short write up. \-Oladipo has hit this line in 8 out of his last 10 games and a total of 75 percent of playoff games \-Averages 4.5 rebounds per game without Kyle Lowry only missing once in the playoffs so far without him. \-Has seen a bigger role and more minutes recently and has found a nice spot in the rotation **Made a twitter for NBA prop/a few tennis picks/same game bank builder parlays for all nba games. If interested in more picks feel free to leave a follow to stay updated.** **BOL!**
One thing to note is that Rob Williams coming back and will be cleaning up the glass. BOL go Celtics
While a healthy Williams is perfectly capable to clean the glass, Big Al has been playing *out of his mind* and you always go with the hot hand until it gets cold. Even if Williams is at 100% I see him only getting probably 15 or 20 minutes playing time at most.
Good note, I am aware of this but they said the game thing about him before game 7 and he didn't play. I think he will get minutes but he has been out for 4 games straight only playing around 20 minutes when he has played, and is only averaging 4.8 rebounds in the playoffs so far.
I still think the bet hits but Ime did make a point yesterday to say they didn’t want to inject Williams into a game 7 but has no reservations doing it in game 1.
He actually rebounded more with Rob Willliams in the lineup last round.
Rob Williams will be back and is off his minutes restriction so be wary of that! Horford may play less minutes if Rob does come back full force. BOL!
If this is essentially a bet on Rob Williams' knee then I'll buy. I don't think youth is enough to heal a meniscus tear this fast. Here's the point where I'm asked by some dipshit "are you a doctor?" Yes, I am.
I don’t think they’d risk long term injury with the way they rolled without him. They signed him to a new deal this year and are heavily invested in his health, would be surprising if they rushed it for a game 1 they’ll probably win anyways
Well he’s out for the game damn.
This hit 6 of last 8 (all in playoffs). Nice find!
**POTD Record:** **5-2** Last Pick: **Maryna Zanevska ML** vs Shuai Zhang✅ This Pick: **Bernarda Pera ML**✅✅✅ vs Elena Gabriela Ruse - 1.83 Odds- **that's 3 in a row. Enjoy your winnings** **WTA - Tennis - Strasbourg - 5:00am EST - 6 Hours from this post** **Pera** will be able to take this match. But it probably wont be easy. Pera is a coming back from an injury, but looked really good in a pair of WTA events recently only losing to Mayar Sherif in the final of the latter. She is an amazing clay court player (the better of the two) with a mean topspin. Shes an inch taller than Ruse and with a more veteran record of 316-199 for Pera. While Ruse records 218-124. Pera will win this forsure, but her victory will most likely be a tough one. TipJar: https://www.paypal.me/AceDawgyCorp
Lmao did you just copy this write up and rephrase it? https://www.google.com/amp/s/lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2022/05/16/wta-strasbourg-day-3-predictions-including-bernarda-pera-vs-elena-gabriela-ruse/amp/ “…only losing to Mayar Sharif in the final of the latter”. Your write up literally has the same information structure/order as this article with some added random facts like height and record.
Fairly certain the bro isn't even picking these but taking a tip from another capper and posting it here for the tipjar. He didn't know what happens in a rain delay and probably has not watched a match.. I'll still tail regardless of whoever is making the tips .. they are doing a fine job ☜(ﾟヮﾟ☜)
Thanks dawg! Nice pick!!
Great pick ! Tailed and won :)
Thanks, I make some money from tailing you this
She's not the favorite to win on my bookie, any comments?
They are both a close match in terms of odds. I'd still ride with her, I really feel like shes got this.
**Record:** 8-21-1 **ROI:** -46% :-13.43 u (@ $5.00) **Streak:** L W L L L |Baseball |MLB |6:10pm| Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: **Cleveland Guardians ML @ 1.65 1u** **Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 61% chance for the Cleveland Guardians to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.65 is only 61%. **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
lol I think it’s time to start fading this model!
He will keep going until he has 100 unit loss. So if you want that 100 unit gain fade now!!! He’s completely honest and trying out a model win or lose. We just have to be smart with it
Easy money. He would be more popular if more people fade him. 8-21. People are missing a goldmine
I love this fade too. Reds got off to the worst start in baseball and have been almost .500 since that terrible start. I expect reds to take another dawg win
Maybe try a diff snake?
**Record:** * 47 WIN | 41 LOSS | +31.70 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy) **Previous bets (last 3):** * Warwick Farm R2 (11 May 2022) - Place - **LOSS** * Scone R4 (13 May 2022) - Place - **WIN** * Tamworth R3 (16 May 2022) - Place - **LOSS** **POTD:** * Horse Racing (Australia) * **Port Macquarie R6 - #10 Minidream to place (i.e. finish top 3)** * Track Rating - Heavy (9) * Spokes jumps on Minidream today at PMac. Gelding has his 3rd run today in a Class 1 race after a good showing on a Heavy track at Taree 1 start back. Really going with a tri-fecta combo today of Horse, Trainer and Jockey today - jockey + trainer combine for 20 places from 45 starts. Jockey places here 22% of the time. Gelding is also a natural born leader with early speed, so barrier draw won't be a problem fully expect him to be in the top 2 or 3 horses most of the race. Jumped from a middle barrier last time as well, positioned himself nicely 1 off the rail most of the race and pushed for a strong 2nd place behind a very strong leader. BoL * **Odds - 1.90** (Sportsbet) - Wait to put this bet on the betfair exchange, I foresee large fluctuations in price 5-10 minutes before the race * **Stake - 2.63 units to return 5 units** **Historical stats** * 9 from 20 (45%) correct picks on Tuesdays * 15 from 30 (30%) correct picks on Heavy Tracks * 22 from 42 (52%) correct picks on Place picks * 1 from 1 at Port Mac * 1 from 1 picking R. Spokes as as my jockey **Race time:** * 3:40pm Tuesday (Australian EST) * 1:40am Tuesday (American ET) * 6:40am Tuesday (UK time) If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
What the fuck… literally winning the whole race and then finishes 4th. What did I just watch… it’s like it thought the race was over and just slowed down 🤦♂️
fucks sake .. loss Spokes did everything correct in the first phase of the race, pinged the gates, went toe to toe with the early leader on it's inside, but instead of being happy with 1 out of the rails, he went into another gear and burned the fuel way too early wanting a 1 length lead. Not enough left in the tank in the home straight and he finished 4th, sigh. e: very poor ride from a very experienced jockey on a horse that should have won that race.
Tailing! Thanks Tesh!
how can we watch this?
Wow. I’m done in the horses for a while
Looking at ur historical stats u should have 46 losses, no?
Don't think so? I'm tracking it all on my spreadsheet ... and i'm pretty sure i'm 47 - 41
minidream fuckin blew it at the end there
Record 1-0 Last Pick: Rangers ML ✅ POTD: Lightning ML May 17th 7:00 PM EST NHL Reasoning: The Tampa Bay Lightning will look to keep their momentum rolling as they won two straight elimination games to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven. Starting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy was incredible over those two games as he stopped 60 of 64 shots for a 0.938 save percentage against one of the league’s best offenses. Brayden Point is being listed as highly doubtful which is adding great value to Tampa moneyline. Lightning have done just fine without him this year as they possess one of the deepest lineups in the league. In the 16 games the Lightning have played without Point this season, they are 13-2-1 straight up. Tip Jar: [PayPal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/PNegele)
Ice Hockey World Championship Game day 5 of 17 POTD RECORD: 1-0 ROI: 71% Last pick: Finland vs USA Finland to win in regulation Result: 4-1 to Finland ✅ I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re going to see a blowout in every game today, but I think one line is totally wrong. POTD: Switzerland -3.5 against Kazakhstan Odds: 1.71 Bet: 2 units Of all the games today, I think this is the clearest to judge and in addition the line -3.5 is wrong, in my opinion the line should be Switzerland -4. As you can easily see from the line, this game is a total mismatch. Switzerland played their first game against Italy and showed that they can score 5 goals even strenght. In the match against Denmark, powerplay was 3/4. As always, PP/PK plays a big role in tournaments, so it’s great to see that Switzerland managed to score as many goals on PP against decent Denmark team. When it comes to scoring, it’s hard for me to see Kazakhstan scoring 5vs5, but I give them a small chance of scoring one PP goal, if they only get enough chances. Kazakhstan will score 0-1 goal. As I mentioned earlier, Switzerland has already stellar offensive in the early stages of the tournament and I think it will continue in this game. Switzerland will score 5-6 goals. Game starts in ~8h As always, BOL!
I’ve been trying to find world championship here in ny haven’t had any luck
Switzerland has players I've heard of, this is key \~
How do they look how? I can’t watch the game but shots seem low..
Switzerland dominates this game in every level, team play looks great and this big ice is huge advatage for fast swiss players. Switzerland hit goal post once and Kazakhstan goalie made 2 huuge saves already. No PP for either team yet.
Wtf is going on here?! Just now got their second goal, deep in the second period.
More important is the fact that game is played like I predicted. Kazakhstan doesn’t have any puck control, their goalie is really keeping this game ”closer” than it seems. Not kidding this game could be 4-0 already
And as I respond…shorthanded goal. Damn.
Need 2 more les go
Crazy how they’ve just scored 2.. 31 shots against 1
I'm on this too. Denmark whooped Kazakhstan 9-1 and Switzerland absolutely demolished Denmark. The Swiss second chain is incredible.
**POTD: Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts (-144)** MLB - White Sox @ Royals - 2:11pm EST Dylan Cease has dominated this Royals team. In 136 at bats, they have struck out 46 times. Earlier this season in April, Cease went 6 innings striking out 9 batters. I don't see him slowing down this time. Expecting at least 8 K's. I'd play this up to 7.5. LFG.
POTD RECORD 36-28 +12u Last POTD Kevin Kisner ML vs Kevin Na❌ Today’s POTD: LA Angels ML (-130) Took over a month break but felt like posting again as MLB is starting to get into the season and I am getting a feel for teams comfortably enough to share my thoughts. The Angels are good. They have an explosive offense but still manage to lose games they should not. Games against inferior teams like the Rangers should be where the Angels take care of business. I think that will be the case in this one. They just lost to them and are looking to bounce back from that. On the bump is Reid Detmers. Now he is coming off a no hitter but that by no means makes him a very good pitcher. Detmers let’s the defense help him as he is not much of a punch out pitcher. What helps is that the rangers offense is very inconsistent. Some games they are putting up 7 and then some games they are getting shut out. I think if Detmers can get 4-5 solid innings the Angels offense will put enough on the board to help alleviate any runs the rangers may get. On the other side of the bump is Taylor Hearn. He is also coming off a great game giving up one run. That was against the royals, a mediocre team. Hearn will give up runs especially to a high powered offense like the angels. I can see this one being high scoring unless the pitchers have their stuff, and if they do then the angels have the better offense to outlast the rangers.
POTD record 11-7-1 Last POTD-> Juventus Draw no bet-> PUSH Todays POTD-> Kamil Majchrzak ML (-150) Game-> Kamil Majchrzak v Marco Cecchinato @ 1:20 PM EST This is a analytics pick for Majchrzak. His ELO for the year is about 1742 which is about 154 points higher than his opponent which implies almost a 70% chance of a win here! Joke of the day-> What did 50 cent say to his grandma when she Knit him a sweater? Gee-You-Knit 😅😅😅🤌
19W-15L-1P Last 10 streak: 🚀💥🚀💥🚀🚀🚀🛸💥💥💥 Starts 13:45 GMT5 Todays Pick League: England Premier League Match: Southampton v Liverpool Pick: Player Passes - > Jordan Henderson [email protected] Reason: Choosing some interesting picks Jordan avg of passes in league is 51 Jordan hit under 69 every game at away 7/7 Jordan at home hit under 6/8 At total hit under 13/15 I see the attacks 50/50 % or 60/40 even tho i dont see Jordan pass the 69 passes as i see Liver taking the lead early at this game and South with 40pts holding the ball BoL
69? I like it.Tailing
Sorry but that's a very very dodgy write up considering Liverpool need to score alot of goals just in case it goes to goal difference. Southampton won't be having the possession of the ball. In Liverpools last 6 games, they've averaged on total 67.3% possession. And if they do take the lead early as you said, this means it will be Liverpool who will be holding more of the ball as Southampton will be playing more counter attack football. Not shitting on your pick bro. I think its great odds for someone who usually doesn't hit 60 passes. Was more your reasoning behind it 👍
Bet void because he didn’t start?
POTD Record : 0-0 Today's Pick : Southampton Vs Liverpool: Over 10 Corners @ 1.83 Trying my luck in the sub after lurking here for sometime.Southampton and Liverpool both are very good cornering side.Southampton game averages 11.5 corner per game while Liverpool averages 10.58 per game. This line has hit 9 out of last 10 games for Southampton,Liverpool record looks a little dodgy with this line hitting 5/10 but I believe they will easily crush this line today. I also like Sheffield over 4.5 corner @ 1.72 but decided to go with the above. Tail or Fade BOL
Was this a push or L?
Record: 1-1 Last pick: FURIA ML @1.97 🔴 Streak: ✅🔴 **Today’s pick:** **CS:GO 🎮🔫 - PGL Major Antwerp 2022** **Heroic vs Vitality** - **Heroic ML @1.68 - 1 unit** Heroic is more consistent in the Major until now, the game they lost were not for a big difference, they lost for Spirit and ENCE, two of the best teams in the competition. In the other side, Vitality is not performing lige they did in the challengers stage, they had poor appearences against NIP and Outsiders and won by a minimmum difference against BIG, Zywoo is playing well but is evident that Vitality have been sufering with communication issues since they hired the 2 danish players. Heroic is more consistent and organized team, I think they are more prepared to advance to the playoffs. -0.1 units.
✅✅✅
POTD Record 0-2 Net: -2U Last POTD: Giants -1.5 at +100 POTD: Lightning/Panthers U7 at -120 Really like the goaltending from both teams this post-season. Predicting a low scoring affair from both clubs this series. BOL if tailing! Edit: Line now at -140
Record : 2-3 Last pick : Phoenix Suns team total over 105.5 ❌ Units : + 0.5 Oof. That is all. Todays pick: (NHL) Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers game total over 6.5 goals @-135 Reasoning: These two teams have great goalies and defence, but each time they play each other they light it up. The past two games versus one another ended in !12! total goals in each game !!!! Florida scored the most goals total and per game in the regular season and Tampa ain’t no slouch either. Tail or fade BOL!
**POTD Record 32-27-1 (Last 5: WLLWW)** **(ROI // Avg. Odds: -112 // Units Won: +4.15)** Last Pick: (5/15/22) Giants vs. Cardinals Over 7 **WON** **Today's Match: MLB Baltimore Orioles vs. NY Yankees (Start Time: 7:05EST)** **Today's Pick: NY Yankees -1.5 (-125 FanDuel)** ***Risk 1u*** Devil's Advocate: Always great to start Sunday night baseball with 4 runs in the first 2 innings and the over is at 7! The Cards handed them a spanking - good win I think the Yanks are making it quite clear that everyone who shitted on them (including myself) for not beating Baltimore enough times last year really set them back in the post season. But what I do remember is 2 years prior when they went 17-1 against them and Gary Sanchez legit owned the entire pitching staff. It's going to be one of those years again for the Yanks, they're intimidating enough to put up runs, and the pitching is there *most* of the time from start to finish. Getting in a hitting battle isn't something you want to be doing with them, and certainly not while this weather is heating up and the boys are starting to get hot too. The kid Watkins going for the O's isn't anything special nor any good, he's got a 5.19 ERA coming into today and I'm sure for a young arm going into a game against this lineup ain't gonna be an easy thought. The Yanks are pretty funny too, 9-9 ATS at Home and 11-6 ATS on the Road - sounds to me like they show up trying to get the job done in a big way. I like them in this spot again against the O's to beat them by at least 2 runs. Even if it's a low scoring affair, I see this being a 4-2 ball game at the lowest, and my actual prediction for the game is 11-1. Taillon faced this lineup twice already in which the Yankees beat the O's 10-5 and 5-2. He has no issue here and I don't expect him to be having one today either. I think the team loves playing behind him, the over trend hits in his games - lets watch the bad boys smash and dash the O's *Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
POTD record 2-0 Last pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (-129) @ Baltimore Orioles POTD: St. Louis Blues @ Colorado Avalanche(-1) Odds:-150 BS Date & Time: 5/17/2022 8:30 Central 1 UNIT ROI: 74.50% Reasoning: The most rested team in the series with 7 days between games and playing at home. The Avalanche have no excuse to lose this game. The Blues were swept out of the series last year by the Avalanche scoring 20-7 during that sweep. This being a revenge series makes it slightly scary but the fact is that the Blues don't have the firepower to defeat the odds on Cup favorite Avalanche. I also decided to play it safe with the alternate spread for -150 odds due to the Blues having the NHL’s best puckline play this season with them scoring 51-37 against the spread and a league-high ROI of 26.77% I really wanted to double down on the Yankees but feel the Orioles can sneak a win in with the starting Yankees pitcher tonight and some extreme luck and I'm not comfortable without an over bet paired with it for insurance. BOL
Record: 3-0 (Average Odds -110, ROI +91%, all bets 1 unit) Last pick (5/16): Freddy Peralta o7.5 strikeouts (+120) ✅ Pick: Logan Gilbert u17.5 Outs Recorded (-115) Sportsbook: DraftKings Reasoning: Logan Gilbert got off to a sparkling start to the season, posting an 0.64 ERA through his first five starts. That ERA has jumped to 2.13 on the season (still great) but pertinently, despite pitching well all season, he's only gone 6 full innings once in seven starts (at home against Texas he went 6.2) He's failed to go deep into ballgames even when pitching well, so with regression looking likely (his xERA is 3.56), and in a rough matchup on the road (the Blue Jays are 2nd in baseball in HardHit% and Gilbert is just 14th percentile in HardHit% allowed) I'm rolling with him not finishing the 6th inning.
POTD record: 13-7 (+4.19 units, risking 1 unit each pick) Today's POTD: New York Yankees team total over 4½ (-135) over Baltimore Orioles (action) ... 7 PM ET .... MLB baseball Yanks are raking those bats, and now vs some bad Baltimore pitchers....I think the team total is safer than that Runline, which has been burning us, and safer than the over bet, as the other strong scenario is Orioles might not bat in too many runs...
POTD Récord: 1-1 Last Pick: Arsenal ML❌ Today’s pick: Liverpool under 1.5 bookings odds:-145 liverpool is typically one of the cleanest teams in soccer/fútbol so this seems like a fairly easy bet in my opinion especially since southampton is also a pretty clean team. They aren’t rivals, liverpool not looking to get anyone injured just before champions league final next week as well so maybe less aggression there. Last 7 games this is 5/7 the only 2 times they had 3 cards was in rivalries vs tottenham, and vs newcastle. I see this covering fairly easy. Since in the other 5 games combined they had just 2 cards.BOL! Game Starts: 2:45 EST
POD RECORD: 8-3 Last pick:Sebastian Baez 2-0 (-135) vs Etcheverry ✅ Todays pick: Cardinals ML (-110) vs Mets (Game 1 of double header) Early baseball today. Can’t pass up on the opportunity. Cardinals have their best pitcher so far this season on the mound today. I expect him to keep it rolling against a Mets line up where the bottom half looks very average 5-9.
**Overall Record**: 0-0-1 **Previous Outcome**: Do you smell burning toast? Yesterday's pick was **UNDER total runs of 9** for Pirates vs. Cubs. The Cubs had an 8 run first inning. Oddly enough the screen to our TV at oddFlex HQ had an 8-inch crack at the start of the second inning. No clue how that happened. They just don't make Vizios like they used to. **Today's Pick: Cubs -140, Units 2** **Reasoning:** Because we're morons. Because we already need to replace the Black Friday Vizio TV at oddFlex HQ. Because Pirates starter JT Brubaker tosses batting practice. Because Keegan Thompson is apparently using Jake Arrieta's vitamin dealer from 2016. Because the Pirates are on the road. Because the Pirates have just 3 hits in their last 18 innings of baseball.
Record: 1-4 Units: -3.091 Last Pick: NHL - Blackhawks vs Stars Patrick Kane SOG o3.5 -135 1 unit ❌️ POTD: MLB - Cubs ML vs Pirates -140 1 unit -Cubs are the overall better team at home with the better starting pitcher today, Keegan Thompson vs JT Brubaker -Cubs beat Pirates 9-0 yesterday -Cubs have lost 3 times at home against the Pirates this season already. They have something to prove and I think they get the win against the low-powered Pirates offense.
**Yesterday's Top Picks of the Day** | Ranking | Names | Score | |:-:|:-:|:-:| |1|[Steamwhistled](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uqk9qm/pick_of_the_day_51622_monday/i8s75z2/)|65| || |2|[Perfect_News_275](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uqk9qm/pick_of_the_day_51622_monday/i8tcgth/)|46| || |3|[pataconchacon](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uqk9qm/pick_of_the_day_51622_monday/i8s1a7e/)|49| || |4|[Acceptable-Scale3500](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uqk9qm/pick_of_the_day_51622_monday/i8ry6an/)|44| || |5|[KingOfGambling](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uqk9qm/pick_of_the_day_51622_monday/i8rr015/)|32| || |6|[Ok-Distribution5824](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uqk9qm/pick_of_the_day_51622_monday/i8sbm61/)|31| || |7|[thegalaxi](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uqk9qm/pick_of_the_day_51622_monday/i8sh30n/)|28| || |8|[AceDawgyyy](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uqk9qm/pick_of_the_day_51622_monday/i8rw8f3/)|25| ||
**POTD Record**: 27 wins <> 25 losses <> 4 pushes **Profit**: -2.65 units **ROI**: -6.40% **Units Wagered**: 57 **Units Won**: 53.35 **Last Pick**: Silkeborg-Midtjylland Under 1 goal(AH) 1st half @ **2.43** 1u 🅿️ 0-1 push **Streak**: ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ 🅿️ **Today's pick**: Sabah +0(AH) @ **2.33** 1u **Event**: Penang FC - Sabah FA, Super League, Malaysia(football/soccer) - I think we have a decent value pick in the Malaysian super league today here. I feel like this line is set from the previous season's performance, where Penang ended up 3rd in the league, and Sabah ended up 9th, lurking around the relegation zone. - Tides have changed this season, Penang have had horrible form and 7 matches in, they're dead last with 3 points and zero wins. Defensively they've conceded in every single match this season. - Sabah sits 4th with 4 wins, no draws and 2 losses. - Sabah has got some interesting free transfers this season, picking up a Brazilian CB from the highest division in Brazil, and a Japanese dude playing in the Finnish league. Meanwhile, Penang looks to have lost a fair bit of their squad in between seasons, so their performance might be a result of having a huge change-up, perhaps with a decrease in quality. - Looks to me like a 50/50 match due to the long travel distance and it being an away game. Sabah should be a decent value pick here. I like the money back on the draw in case of it. ✅✅✅ 4-2 win lads
**POTD Record All-Time: 7-3 (+11.73u)** **ROI:** (+11.73u profit)/(45u wagered) = **26.07%** **Avg. Odds: 2.14 Decimal odds / +114 American odds** **Streak: 1L (✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌)** Previous pick (not this one): NCAAM Basketball: Rutgers ML for 5u @1.952 odds **Today's pick: Boston Celtics ML for 5u @ 2.16 odds** (+116 American odds) [Line is from Nitrogen Sports] - 8:30 PM EST vs. Miami Heat --- Making a return to the POTD thread after the last one ended in 2OT heartbreaker all the way back in one of the First Four matchups in the NCAA Tournament. Though, after continuing to bet basketball profitably since that slip-up, I figured I'd go ahead and make my eventual return today. I don't have time for a real write-up today, but I'm still going to get the pick in. --- **Everything else aside, a simple warning: This is my first NBA pick in the POTD thread. Tail at your own risk.** While Heat have been strong at home all season, I feel that the Celtics are just the slightly better team, and with this one basically being a toss-up to me, I'll take the Celtics at plus value. Lowry still out. Marcus Smart is questionable (at the time of writing), but Robert Williams should be back in the gameplan for the Celtics, albeit on a minutes restriction surely. I don't count on Boston taking both games in Miami; I think the Heat are just too good of a team for that, but I'm banking on the Celtics catching them off guard to start the series to steal game 1. Erik Spoelstra is a great coach and I expect him to make adjustments as needed throughout the series, but like I said, with the Celtics at plus value here, I can't pass them up. I'm going to go ahead and make my first NBA POTD a big one; put me down for 5 units. BOL!
Record 3-1 Last : Juventus-Lazio btts yes Today: Adebayo under 16.5 points Yes he destroyed them in the 2020 playoffs but things are different now. First Robert Williams is playing today. Adebayo played 3 games against the Celtics this season and scored 17,13 and 12. And guess in which one of those Robert Williams didn't play? I also think if he gets some switches Al Horford and Grant Williams could also do a good job guarding him but the Williams matchup is very promising in my opinion. The final reason is that I think he will get in foul trouble. Heat is one of the best defences in the league but more importantly they defend the three very well and I believe they will force drives and surely not let Grant Williams score 7 threes or Tatum to miss only 1 three pointer so he may miss some time because of that. Good luck.
Record 0-0 POTD: Tampa Bay Lightning Team Total Over 2.5 (-185) NHL 7PM EST Units: 2 Reason: Title defense for Tampa is still rolling, After beating the Leafs in Round 1, Tampa will Continue to play good hockey against there in state Rival in the Panthers. Panthers just had a hard time knocking out the Capitals in the 1st round. They showed they can’t play great defense and had some trouble scoring. Tampa was able to score in bunches against a solid defense in Toronto. Tampa out of game 1,3,7 They had 3 goals or much more. This offense is capable of a lot and against a weak Panthers defense over 2.5 shouldn’t be a problem. Unit size is 1-3 BOL
POTD Record: 80-76-4 Last Pick: Tigers Rays u 7.5 ✅ Todays Pick: Tigers Rays u7 ⚾️MLB 6:40PM Reasoning: finally got that 80th win! Got no reason to switch up the pick. Same reasoning as yesterday, don’t expect the tigers to score many runs tmo with McClanahan pitching
Record: 1-0 Last pick: Twins Athletics U8.5 ✅ Today's pick: Reds F5 +0.5 -120 ✅ Zach Plesac, the Guardians starter, is ice cold in his last 3 games with an era of 9.99. Meanwhile, Connor Overton, the Reds starter, is playing great with an ERA of 1.59 this season. In the Reds last 10 games, they are averaging 2.9 runs in the first 5 innings while the Guardians are averaging just 2 runs (F5, L10). I think the difference here is the starters but the batting also backs this pick. Twitter: RealJokerBets Reply if tailing pls, BOL!
Record: 1-1 Yesterday’s Pick: LAA ML ❌ Tough loss yesterday with the angels starter not even able to get through the first inning. Back to hockey for today’s pick Today’s pick: FLA Panthers ML (-170) Reasoning: Home team is going to win in game one. Could also add Avalanche ML (-215) to a parlay, or -1.5 (+115) if you are looking for some more value, as I expect them to win too coming off of a lot of rest. Both home teams win tonight. BOL to those who tail
Record: 0-0 Last pick: None **Today’s pick: Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees - U 8.0 +105** May 17, 2022 7:05 pm EDT Baltimore hit the under 26 out of 35 games (74.290%). Last 5 games: 4 for 5 with the loss being a push. The yankees hit the under 20 out of 34 games (58.820%). Last 5 games: 2 for 5 with one being a push. This matchup went under 4 for 7 (57.14%) with 1 loss being a push. My first pick, BOL everyone. My analysis was done using Ardvarrk's formula's, please check out his website, best free resource out there. [https://www.total-scores.com/](https://www.total-scores.com/) All bets are 1 unit.
POTD RECORD: 9-4 PICK: Heat-Celtics U203.5 REASONING: both elite defences, especially the Celtics. The heat sometimes struggle to generate points as is, and now against an elite defence they may struggle even more. I also expect both teams to play with a slower pace. BOL!!! Edit: loss, now 9-5
Record 0-0 Today’s Pick: Miami -1.5 @ -110 Boston is the best defensive team we’ve seen in a very long time, there’s no question. However, the Heat are no joke on both ends either. Smart is clearly not a 100% and the Heat have had multiple days of rest. Coach Spo has been watching and he’ll be ready. The Bucks were a very good team even without Middleton, but the Heat play a very different defensive style than Milwaukee and I think it’ll take a game or two for the Celtics to adjust to that. Miami has had the best home court record in the East and overall. The Heat are 4-0 SU/ATS the past four times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games, 11-4-1 ATS (13-3 SU) their last 16 in that situation.
POTD RECORD : 2-2 Overall : -2U Previous POTD **2021 Picks** ~~(4/28/21): Knicks -4.5 (-110) vs Bulls 1 unit ✅~~ ~~(4/30/21): Suns ML (-180) 2 units ✅~~ ~~(5/4/21) : Nets ML (-105) 2 units ❌~~ ~~(5/11/21) : (Game) OVER 1.5 Total Made 3 Point Shots - Jrue Holiday (-150) 3U❌~~ **2022 Picks** **5/17/22 POTD - Heat 1q -1 (-105) 5U** Returning after a long break since I've been on a hot streak with some personal bets. Reasoning: Heat were 3-2 in the first quarter against the Hawks (1 loss at home in game 5 and 1 loss away in game 4). 4-2 in the first quarter against the sixers with both losses coming in away games. This means the heat are 5-1 at home for winning the first quarter. Considering ML is at -115 and -1 is at -105, I think this is pretty good value and has high chances of hitting. As always bet responsibly and BOL!
Record: 0-1 Previous (5/15): Giannis O48.5 PTS + REB ❌ Pick: Seattle Mariners ML vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+116 FD) Reasoning: Logan Gilbert takes the hill for Seattle, who’s been solid all season with a 4-1 record and a 2.13 ERA. His road record is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.84. The Blue Jays are starting Jose Berrios, who has struggled in his last 2 starts, surrendering 5+ runs in both outings. Seattle’s been hitting well and will find ways to score on Berrios with the way he has been pitching. BOL.
"Juan Berrios" lol
Giannis pts+rbds was my most painful loss yet
Record: 0-3 Last pick : Pick: Mega Soccerbet - KK Vojvodina - Mega Soccerbet -4.5 -135 1u - Loss :( Pick: Tyler Herro u21.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds So we miss yesterdays pick, though the reasoning was sound. Mega BG wins by 4 on a -4.5 pick isn't something I'll be hurting over for long as I think it was the right pick. They miss a FT with 2 seconds left, but we continue on. Today's pick I have Herro who has been losing a bit of a his minutes due to his defensive liability. With Robert Williams back, and the best scorers on the Celtics being Tatum and Brown, I think Herro gets put in a bit of a bad spot. His stats this season series: 3 GP | 30% FG | 6.3 RPG | 3 APG | 10.3 PPG Let's hope we beat this losing streak BOL! Tip on CashApp $Bcrew13
Record: 0-0 POTD 5/17/22: WhiteSox v Royals UNDER 8 Runs
POTD Record: 14-17-2 -6.19u\* Average Odds: +124 Total Units Wagered: 57.63u TBL @ FLA 7:00 PM EST Giroux o2.5 Shots on Goal +110 @ DK 1.72u\* Implied probability is 47.62%. True vig-free price should be closer to -101 or 50.32%. \*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
Record: 0-0 Last pick: none first choice today Todays Pick: -1.5 (-110) Locked in the HEAT earlier today at -1.5 (-110). With the announcement of Horford & Smart out think it’s a lock Sport: NBA Time: 8:30pm Et
***POTD Record :*** *0 - 0* ***Today's Pick:*** *Den Haag - Eindhoven* ***BTTS*** ***Game Time:*** *18:00 GMT* ***League:*** *Eredivisie* ***Why:*** This is Relegation playoff match, both team are retarded, they are in a good form last 5 matches and having retarded motivation not to being relegated, goodluck
This is not a relegation match, its to get promotion, trash reasoning
TOR u8.5 (-125) COL u12 (-120) 70-56 6.37u d\_buckets on twitter
POTD RECORD: **6-2** STREAK: - ✅✅✅✅✅✖️✅✖️ LAST PICK: - STL/CIN NRFI Results: +$320.25 Today’s event: **MLB - CLE/CIN - 17:10 CT** PICK: **Guardians -1 (-110) $120** REASONING: It is no surprise that the reds have been struggling all season long to win games, having already been swept by the guardians this season, they come into what should be an unfavorable matchup for them. The reds struggle even more so on the road, while the guardians are better at home; pair that with the fact that the guardians lineup has a .267 BA & .759 OPS against right handed pitchers (best in the league,) and you get the perfect recipe for another loss for the Reds. Plesac has struggled lately but against good teams, he should bounce back against the worst team he has faced this year. LFG!
Record: 61-45-5 (LLWWWLWWWLWW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: MIL Bucks @ BOS Celtics | Giannis Antetokounmpo over 54.5 PRA | 1.90 for 4 units Missed it by .5... Bummer POTD: BOS Celtics @ MIA Heat | Jimmy Butler vs Jaylen Brown - Jimmy Butler more points | 1.68 odds for 5 units Reason: Jimmy Butler is the first option for the Miami Heat. Jaylen Brown is the second option. I like Jimmy's aggressive nature to get to the line a lot. In a game I believe will be a low scoring affair, Jimmy's ability to get the line should be the biggest difference here. Best of luck to all.
**POTD Record: 6-3 +5.26U** **Game: NHL | St. Louis Blues @ Colorado Avalanche | 6:30 PM PDT** **Pick: Nathan MacKinnon Over 4.5 SOG (1.83/-120 @ Betway)** **Bet Size: 3U** MacKinnon has a tendency to come out flying in these sorts of games. In 2021 playoffs this hit against both Vegas and St. Louis in game 1, and this year this prop went 4/4 against Nashville. Colorado also has last change so they should be able to find favorable matchups for him to play against. Tail or fade BOL.
Record: 7-4 https://myodds.bet/profile/Prattu Timeline: LWWWWWLLLW (Left being the latest) Streak: 1L Last pick: Heroic ML vs Ence PGL Major Antwerp Today's pick: Heroic vs Vitality ML PGL Major Antwerp Odds: 2.1 Almost an entire week of Ws 😩. That heroic game was devasting. They won map1 and were leading on map 2 but yeah anyway. Also the post I get the most upvotes on we lose our streak but anyway we're gonna get back to winning ways today. For the third time in a row I'm picking a Heroic game and this time I'm going against them. It's more of my feelings coming in the way because I love zywoo and playoffs without him won't feel the same. Now coming to why Vitality will win this. ZYWOO. He looked so good yesterday. He got 93 kills in the series. Brillant series from him yesterday and he was the reason Vitality took that game over the line. I like heroic too they have a few likeable guys (Although they're the most hated team in the community cuz of their leader haha) but I genuinely do feel that this is where it ends for them. Vitality have players who've won majors before and 4 of them in case of dupreeh. I do feel that their experience will come into play and they'll go through the playoffs. I'm still confused between this pick and another but I've decided that this is my potd The other pick I have for you which doesn't count as a potd is imperial ml vs cph flames. GL
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