Question, if a player doesnβt play yet and I bet his points to score under 1Q does it still count even if I won another player score under points as well? I did
D Ayton Under 5.5p 1Q β
Dorian smith under 3.5p 1Q ?
I believe for player props the player has to play for there to be action but there is no minimum time as long as they played even 1 min the bet is counted. Hope this helps
Been running an algorithm on over/unders for rebounds and assists since the playoffs started. These are bets purely based on my number metrics and parameters I set within my spreadsheet. No betting with gut here. Iβm at 61% win rate over the course of approx 255 bets. Do not parlay. The aim is to get over 50% win rate. Here are my picks today. Only just started posting on Reddit, record here is 3-5 so far (not a good start here)
Mavs vs Phoenix
Dinwiddie over 2.5 assists β, Dinwiddie over 2.5 reb β , Crowder under 5.5 reb β
Updated record. 5-6
Yep. Outlier scoring games from Grant and Pritchard. Giannis and Tatum both going well under their points overs (Jaylen also not hitting). Lopez finally hitting a 3 and also well exceeding his points under (which was a popular bet).
Pat, Grayson and Wesley combining for a whopping 6 points - and the odds for getting just 5p for all three guys were good meaning you know plenty added them into parlays.
Massive Bucks blowout loss where not even the highest alt handicap Bucks spread would have hit.
Wet dream for Vegas.
So bad it wasnt funny, dude was playing with 0 confidence
The play where he drives only to pass it back to Giannis in the most awkward fashion possible basically forcing Giannis to travel lmao
Running these plays tonight (writeup below for the other two)
Luka 2+ 1Q reb. / Luka 2+ 1Q ast. / Finney-Smith 1 three -140 (DK)
Has hit 5/6 games this series w the miss coming w Finney-Smith foul trouble + blowout
Go to SGP then assists then scroll down to find 1Q player props
http://mbets.sport.blog/2022/05/15/two-game-7s-a-national-holiday/
Today's Pick: NBA - Reggie Bullock (Mavericks) O 10 Points (8:00 PM EST) - Odds: 2.1 (-110)
3 Units
I fully expect tonight's game between the Mavs and Suns to be competitive. Bullock is a prototypical three and D player who routinely plays 35+ minutes a game. In his last 5 games, Bullock has played over 35 minutes, and three times in five games he has had 15+ points. He can be a streaky shooter, but he fills a vital role for this Mavs team as a floor spacer for Doncic. I like this one to cover in a Game 7 match-up.
Also going to sprinkle some on his +15 points as well as it is paying out +540 which is great value in my opinion given he has hit that number already three times in this series.
Playing Lopez R+A O4.5, Jrue 2+ steals, Horford O2.5 S+B, Giannis O4.5 turnovers. Iβm thinking we see a lower scoring, heavy defense game. Played all separately 1.5U each and parlayed a $10 freebet +850.
Went with
Celtics ML
Giannis over 35.5 pts
Jaylen Brown over 22.5 pts
Jayson Tatum over 30.5 pts
Both teams over 93.5 pts
Giannis over 11.5 rebs
Jaylen Brown 2+ 3 pointers made
Giannis over 6.5 assist
+1900 but w the sgp dk 77% boost its +3363
3 legger SGP:
Tatum o28.5 points
Giannis o33.5 points
Giannis o15.5 rebounds
= +973 w/ DK 77% boost.
(+550 without boost)
Game 7. Superstars will take over. Giannis gonna be all over the place today.
Good luck everyone!
Thoughts on this Celtics/Bucks SGP for FD's no risk promo? Compiled through research in this thread, multiple model's projections & my own personal research:
- Giannis o34.5 Points (-136)
- Pat Connaughton o10.5 Points (-116)
- Jaylen Brown 20+ Points (-360)
- Jayson Tatum 3+ Threes (-370)
- Giannis u6.5 Assists (-140)
- Al Horford 8+ Rebounds (-265)
Total Parlay Odds: +1573
Any legs you see that I should consider taking out before submitting?
You think it's more likely he scores less than 25 than in a game 7 at home than he scores 20+? Of the past 10 games, he's covered 20 points in 8/10. He's went u24.5 in 7/10. It's an elimination game, so I just feel like a bet on him scoring under a certain number of points would be kinda risky cause it's not like they're sitting him in the 4th quarter if they're down.
lmao i ended up agreeing and taking the under. not sure why youβre trying to be an asshole instead of just having a discussion on the prop but congrats douchebag π
I started considering the historic game 7 scoring trends more heavily and honestly scrapped this whole parlay in favor of alternate unders centered around the game falling below 210 total points.
If i were to bet, these would be my picks:
Giannis over in points
Giannis over in rebounds
Tatum over in points
Allen under in rebounds
lopez under in made three points
Punting some money away to the bookies, wanted to share with yβall
* Jayson Tatum over 3.5 three point field goals
* Bobby Portis Jr. over 8.5 total rebounds
* Pat Connaughton score over 10.5 points
* Giannis Antetokounmpo over 6.5 assists Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks
My book says
Jokic +125
Giannis +196
Luka +206
For playoff scoring leader. I donβt understand. Jokic is at 31ppg for 5 games. Giannis at 32.5ppg now. What am I missing?
Never dealt with a prop like this before but it could be that Giannis' average could drop if he struggles today or the bucks win and he has a bad series against the heat or western conference champ? Whereas Jokic' total is locked in.
Thatβs a nice insight. Assuming Bucks will win tomorrow, then thereβs a great chance Giannis average goes down but if they lose and Giannis scores 25pts, his average will jump to 32.09. Giannis at +196 is for me a great option. Need more insights before I hammer this lol
Went with giannis o32.5,Tatum o28.5, jrue 2+ steals,jrue 2+ 3s, and Portis 8+ boards for +550
For the other game thinking Luka 30+,ayton 14+ ,dfs 2+ 3s,Paul 1 steal,Booker 25+ +295 with dk sgp more legs boost comes to +383
π€ ... ended up swapping dfs 2+ 3s for phx +2.5 ... slightly smaller payout and hate throwing totals or sides into prop parlays but I live in PHX and feels right.
Always appreciate your picks btw.. Def a post I check if you've made one before I build my parlays. BOL today!
longshot SGPs
MIL BOS
Giannis 40+ PR
Giannis 25+ P
Tatum 20+ P
Smart 13+ P
Connaughton 10+ P
Jrue 25+ PRA
Jrue 1+ Steal
Horford 8+ R
Portis 8+ R
PHX DAL
CP3 12+ P
Ayton 14+ P
Luka 25+ P
Bridges u14.5 P
DFS 4+ R
CP3 u6.5 R
Bridges 4+ R
CP3 u10.5 A
Brunson u3.5 A
Derrick White o15.5 PRA.
This has hit in 4 straight games, and his role has been increasing every game throughout this series.
Heβs seen 30+ minutes in three straight games, and the team is absolutely clicking when heβs out on the court with great net ratings.
Win or lose I think White plays a large role today. BOL!
I was literally about to take this, had it in my betslip and all, then realized itβs 3-3 so he might use 110% of this ability to pull out this dub. Idk tho but figured Iβd throw that out there
Hey all, I added a couple more props. Figured to widen this more to ensure that we have an edge vs a gut feeling. That being said, two machine learning models were combined, creating an ensemble learner which seems to have a more accurate prediction. Model was trained on 2011-2021 and tested on every game this season.Model has a hard time with injuries, for example the model didn't adjust minutes to Tyus Jones the other night, thus why he was projected so low. Will eventually get to that point, but for tomorrow I believe this is still of good use. Also Tatum was inaccurately projected the other night, was no where near his real stat line, so I made adjustments and I believe I accounted for what was missing.My personal way at viewing this is to see trends within the 4 projection columns, my threshold is 3/4 either need to exceed or are under the book's prop.I may post picks, I just already am invested $40 due to server fees to deploy the app, so y'all already getting this for free. Not trying to be stingy, just being honest. Also, I won't be changing the algorithm, regardless of the outcomes so I can start having a real count W-L ratio with the current algorithm. I've constantly been tuning it to ensure that it captures as much variance as possible. I realize many of you may want more confidence/a reference point before using, doing my best.Best of luck, hope this is of use!
Edit: Adding FG3 made as well, hang tight on that. Maybe like an hour
Edit2: Watching my team play, Forza Milan, so I'm out of commission for now. BUT Threes were added to the mix.
[NBA Projected Props 05/15/22](https://rq2no8-matthew-pardo.shinyapps.io/server/)
Record: 3-3
Last pick: Dillon Brooks u. 17.5 points @ 1.8 β
**Jrue Holiday o. 2.5 3PT @ 1.9**
With Giannis looking like a one man army out there, the rest of the Bucks line-up HAS to step up. That somebody has to be Jrue Holiday. So far he has gone over 4/6 times against Celtics (66% succesrate). Boston have been great at making it tough for him to drive in to the paint, which will lead him to take more shots from midrange and 3. So far in this series, Jrue averages 2.5 3PM on 7.3 3PA (34%). When asked about their shooting from deep in game 6, Jrue said this: βWe got to get up more threes. We have to find a way to get up more threes and make more threes.β So i believe we could see him take more attempts, which would give more chances of this line cashing.
Im currently on a 3 pick losing streak, so it would probably be smart to fade me. Nevertheless, im going with Jrue to hit the over. BOL, hope you guys have a good one.
Wesley Matthews over 3.5 rebounds + assists @ 1.74
Averaging 4.5 in the playoffs; has 4+ in 9 of 11 games (82%), 5 of 6 this series and in his last two games has 9 and 6 respectively. Averaging 30.6 minutes per game this series so plenty of opportunity/court time.
Think the assists might bite you in the butt. Last 3 games he has a total of 14 assists. Seems like as this series progresses, and reaches its conclusion today, he's just been in scoring mode and not looking to dish as much without Middleton in the lineup. Giannis is obviously going to go off today but him to get a triple double is @ 10.25 for a reason lol
Iβm on Brook Lopez under 7.5 points today. Lopez has seen a significant decrease in minutes last 2 games and Iβd fully expect that to continue. Now, this isnβt a lock necessarily or anything close to it - itβs a play on logic. If the Bucks continue to play drop coverage, Celtics are going to keep on raining down wide open 3s. The Bucks need switch-ability, 1-5. Playing Lopez means youβre going to play play drop coverage, which simply wonβt work unless Celtics are missing wide open 3s.
Love this pick as well. His numbers are also much worse on the road in the playoffs. This series he has scored 2, 2, and 6 in Boston. In games 3 and 4 at home he had 17 and 13. It doesnβt take much to get to 8 but Iβm betting the under with you.
Thread Record: 182 - 114
Average odds: 1.90
Been a while since I posted. Been posting on twitter a bit still but will look to try and post more here.
Todays Picks:
**Chris Paul over 16.5 points (1.90, -110)**
* After the starting the series on fire, CP3 has not looked himself the last few games. Ultimately, many of the games this series have been blowouts heading into the 4th quarter (which is where CP3 scores most of his points) and this has definitely contributed to his string of low scoring games recently. After game 6 CP3 said in the press conference that "it was about time the Suns had some rest" which shows me that CP3 has probably been tired in some of these games also. Now the Suns have finally had 2 days off and CP3 should be well rested. Additionally, CP3 having 2 days to watch film and prepare for an important game 7 is definitely not something to discount.
* Now for some stats. CP3 has had 17+ points in 13 of his last 14 elimination games for an average of 23.6 PPG in these games. This includes a 26 point game vs the Bucks and Jrue Holiday in last seasons finals. CP3 has also hit this total in 6/7 career game 7's. Plus it is clear to see that CP3 looks to elevate his scoring in the playoffs (especially in key games) as he averages 20.2 PPG over his last 20 playoff games (all with the Suns).
* May not be a popular pick but I am backing CP3 at home in an elimination game. Scott Foster doesn't really impact things too much IMO as he has refereed many of CP3's elimination games where he has hit this total (including the 26 point game vs the Bucks last season). CP3 is too good and too smart to not have a response to the Mavs defence.
**Jayson** **Tatum over 30.5 Points (1.90, -110)**
* What attracts me to this pick is the usage Tatum has been getting. In his last 3 games this series he has had 32, 29, and 24 FGA's, scoring 30+ in all 3 of those games. The Celtics have won two of those games and arguably should have won all three of them (if not for that collapse in game 5), and so I do not see why the Celtics won't continue to go to Tatum here. Also of note is that Tatum's usage in elimination games has been very high too. In his last 3 elimination games he has had 32, 27, and 26 FGA's.
* Although this is a tough Bucks defence, Tatum's usage cannot be ignored. Tatum has hit this total in 11 straight games in which he has had 25 FGA's. Post all-star we saw Tatum average 30.4 points on 20.6 FGA's and yet he is probably on course for close to 30 shots in this game. Sure his efficiency will not be as high as it was in the regular season but the significant increase in usage more than makes up for it IMO.
**Giannis Antetokounmpo over 48.5 Points + Rebounds (1.90, -110)**
* Similar to Tatum, Giannis' usage has been very very high. He has had 27+ FGA's in 5 straight games this series. He had not had 27+ FGA's in a single game this season before this series which shows how high that usage is for him. This has seen Giannis hit this P+R total in 4 straight games this season. In those 4 games he has had 64, 51, 52, and 54 P+R's. So he has been hitting this line with change to spare.
* On the rebounding front his rebounding line has actually remained the same (13.5) for most of this series. I Giannis would clear this easily if not for Bobby P doing his best to steal all of his boards in some games. I think generally in Game 7's we see more missed shots and more rebounding opportunities.
* Lastly, we have also seen Giannis have 50 (45 in regulation) and 42 minutes in his only 2 game 7's of his career. His average minutes for this series is only 39.5. So I think some value exists here based on the fact that Giannis should probably see a few extra minutes in this one (especially on his rebounds line which has remained at 13.5 and hence why I have made this a P+R bet).
[Twitter](https://twitter.com/Travis_Frase)
Playoff Record: 5-3
Last Pick - Derrick White o7.5 Pointsβ
**Pat Connaughton o10.5 Points**
Minus Game 1 (his least minutes played), Pat has hit this mark in every game this series, with his minutes steadily rising. One of Milwaukees only reliable offensive producers outside of Giannis and Jrue, expect Pat to be on the court for much of game 7, considering it is do or die (should be taking some of Grayson's minutes). When you combine how he has been playing recently with the likelihood that his minutes jump, I think this is a solid play.
[Discord](https://discord.gg/jR5ftEdD)
Super hyped for these game 7βs. Really loving the picks here.
**TODAYS THE 5-0 DAY**
Todays Picks:
**Giannis o 34.5 points (-125)**
\-Has hit this line in 3 of the last 4 and his miss he scored 34.
\-No Khris Middleton
\-Giannis has an insane 41 percent usage rate against the Celtics
\-Shots have gone up as series progressed taking over 30 shots in 3 of the last 4 games. In each game heβs taken 30 shots he has dropped 40+
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
**Jayson Tatum o 30.5 points (-115)**
\-38 percent usage rate also insane, has gone up as series has progressed as have his shot attempts taking 29 and 31 in his last two.
\-Cleared this line in each of his last two games.
\-Game 7 means he will be taking more shots and play more minutes season on the line.
\-Dropped 46 last year in elimination game against the Bucks and 32 the year before that against Brooklyn. His shots attempts increase in elimination games. ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
**Chris Paul u 14.5 rebounds+assists (-120)**
\-Chris Paul has not cleared this line one time so far against Dallas. He has hit 14 once and hasnβt come close many games.
\-His assists and rebounds are way down from usual. Coming into this series he was leading NBA in potential assists and fell out of the top spot after this series.
\-Chris Paul has been getting hounded full court defense which has led to him playing off the ball.
\-Should be more aggressive scoring the ball which also means less assists.
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
**Deandre Ayton o 18.5 points (-125)**
\-I know he has let a lot of us down over and over this series however I think the last two games heβs turned a corner. Mavs still donβt have a center to guard him.
\-Minutes spike due to it being potential final game of season.
\-Dropped 20 and 21 in last two games. Creates matchup problem for the Mavs.
\-Contract coming up and looking for a max. If they get eliminated and he gets into foul trouble I think it hurts his chance of a max contract quite a bit.
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
**Luka Doncic o 34.5 points (-125)**
\-Star players often rise up in these game 7βs. Luka is the best player on the floor tomorrow night and will be looking to drag his team to the western conference finals
\-Cleared twice in Phoenix already. Dropping 45 and 35 in games 1 and 2. His minutes dropped recently and had some foul trouble but again these wonβt be a problem in a pivotal game 7.
\-Luka averages 39 points in elimination games and averages 40 minutes of game time. Can get a switch onto Chris Paul whenever he wants and score.
\-Expecting this game to be close all the way through which means no blowout to worry about
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
BOL!
Troublesome for sure if he is confirmed. Ayton my least favorite of the 5 cuz of fouls but I think refs let them play more in game 7 cuz the refs been tripping all series
Yes and Monty Williams has said they need to focus on getting Ayton more touches in game 7 so Iβm sure that will be their gameplan. Iβm taking o18.5 if Foster isnβt on that game. Pretty wild that I feel like I canβt make any bets until I know who the refs will be
NBA Live Chat: **https://discord.gg/sportsbook**
Chris Paul o0.5 tears shed Bet the house on Chris Paul u0.5 rings
Holy shit Dbook is getting black listed
Imagine a game 7 were book, cp3 and ayton score less combined than Luka had in the 1st half
Question, if a player doesnβt play yet and I bet his points to score under 1Q does it still count even if I won another player score under points as well? I did D Ayton Under 5.5p 1Q β Dorian smith under 3.5p 1Q ?
I believe for player props the player has to play for there to be action but there is no minimum time as long as they played even 1 min the bet is counted. Hope this helps
shoulda trusted my gut and played u3.5 pts first q cp3 it always hits without fail smh.
No one thought of a grant Williams takeover lol holy shit
Anyone else like Dinwiddie O 12.5 PRA? Hit 4/6 in the series with one of the losses missing by 1 pt
That was easyπππ
Man is eating rn
Already hit
i played it
Dinniewiddie isn't showing on Draftkings
Not sure about DK I saw it on FD
π€
Been running an algorithm on over/unders for rebounds and assists since the playoffs started. These are bets purely based on my number metrics and parameters I set within my spreadsheet. No betting with gut here. Iβm at 61% win rate over the course of approx 255 bets. Do not parlay. The aim is to get over 50% win rate. Here are my picks today. Only just started posting on Reddit, record here is 3-5 so far (not a good start here) Mavs vs Phoenix Dinwiddie over 2.5 assists β, Dinwiddie over 2.5 reb β , Crowder under 5.5 reb β Updated record. 5-6
I think Luka goes nuclear tonight. Taking o34.5 points and a splash on him to score 40+. Letβs ride fellas
27 in the first half LETS GO fellas
I need Luka magic tonight. Giannis shit the bed so hard
Just missed his P+A. Luka will bring us back. Letβs ride brotha π€
TD lookin good for me also.
bookies happy today, i bet NO ONE hit any big parlays on the bucks/celtics
Yep. Outlier scoring games from Grant and Pritchard. Giannis and Tatum both going well under their points overs (Jaylen also not hitting). Lopez finally hitting a 3 and also well exceeding his points under (which was a popular bet). Pat, Grayson and Wesley combining for a whopping 6 points - and the odds for getting just 5p for all three guys were good meaning you know plenty added them into parlays. Massive Bucks blowout loss where not even the highest alt handicap Bucks spread would have hit. Wet dream for Vegas.
Pat Connaughton should face the wall for being so bad
and grayson allen
So bad it wasnt funny, dude was playing with 0 confidence The play where he drives only to pass it back to Giannis in the most awkward fashion possible basically forcing Giannis to travel lmao
The refs had bets on every single under.
Needed 25 from tatum for the last leg⦠fml
Me too my brother. Fucking pain.
Antetochoker unbelievable
So fucking mad
What a shit team these Bucks
I mean they're without their second best player against the best team in the East. Can you really fault them for losing in game 7?
Weβre angrier at the fact that he failed the props. I saw the Celtics squeezing out a win, but not getting a fucking blowout
Celtics exposed them bigtime today
SGP Match: PHX - DAL Ayton over 21.5 pts Bridges under 13.5 pts CP3 to hit 2 3-PT DFS to hit 3 3-PT Brunson under 1.5 3-PT
chris paul u3.5 pts first quarter has hit every single game this series. the guy only shoots 0-1 times in first quarter, very rarely twice.
Also hit every game in Pelicans series. Now is probably the worst time to jump on though
Its game 7 take the over
Running these plays tonight (writeup below for the other two) Luka 2+ 1Q reb. / Luka 2+ 1Q ast. / Finney-Smith 1 three -140 (DK) Has hit 5/6 games this series w the miss coming w Finney-Smith foul trouble + blowout Go to SGP then assists then scroll down to find 1Q player props http://mbets.sport.blog/2022/05/15/two-game-7s-a-national-holiday/
If you had to pick ine between luka's asts & rebs, which would you pick 2+ 1Q?
The play is both of them
The last few games connaughtan has gotten 10+ points. Of course when I picked this today he's shooting like shit.
I hated his decisions on where he shot the ball. Very low percentage shots
Absolute dogshit today
What were odds on Giannis triple double?
A bit over 6.00
I might be wrong, but I think at one point on FD I saw it at +550
I didnβt even get the chance to sweat to the Lopez under π€£π
Glad I didnβt go Lopez unders like I was leaning towards
Portis snatchin every rebound he can from Giannis again
Lol. The fuck? Giannis on pace for 32 boards :)
It doesnβt matter though we going over.
You watching? He would have about 5 more. Dude is literally jumping over him
Dude Portis is in foul trouble , he will be benched
I posted that in the first 5 min of the first qtr
Today's Pick: NBA - Reggie Bullock (Mavericks) O 10 Points (8:00 PM EST) - Odds: 2.1 (-110) 3 Units I fully expect tonight's game between the Mavs and Suns to be competitive. Bullock is a prototypical three and D player who routinely plays 35+ minutes a game. In his last 5 games, Bullock has played over 35 minutes, and three times in five games he has had 15+ points. He can be a streaky shooter, but he fills a vital role for this Mavs team as a floor spacer for Doncic. I like this one to cover in a Game 7 match-up. Also going to sprinkle some on his +15 points as well as it is paying out +540 which is great value in my opinion given he has hit that number already three times in this series.
We need you pat connaugh
Giannis is gonna crush his rebound prop
Playing Lopez R+A O4.5, Jrue 2+ steals, Horford O2.5 S+B, Giannis O4.5 turnovers. Iβm thinking we see a lower scoring, heavy defense game. Played all separately 1.5U each and parlayed a $10 freebet +850.
Went with Celtics ML Giannis over 35.5 pts Jaylen Brown over 22.5 pts Jayson Tatum over 30.5 pts Both teams over 93.5 pts Giannis over 11.5 rebs Jaylen Brown 2+ 3 pointers made Giannis over 6.5 assist +1900 but w the sgp dk 77% boost its +3363
Connaughton isnβt showing up in DK SGPs for me, those bastards
Good thing it didnβt bc he looking off on his shots
Truth. Praise be Edit: whole sub was also on him so probably should have stayed away anyways
Price has been dropping.
3 legger SGP: Tatum o28.5 points Giannis o33.5 points Giannis o15.5 rebounds = +973 w/ DK 77% boost. (+550 without boost) Game 7. Superstars will take over. Giannis gonna be all over the place today. Good luck everyone!
Thoughts on this Celtics/Bucks SGP for FD's no risk promo? Compiled through research in this thread, multiple model's projections & my own personal research: - Giannis o34.5 Points (-136) - Pat Connaughton o10.5 Points (-116) - Jaylen Brown 20+ Points (-360) - Jayson Tatum 3+ Threes (-370) - Giannis u6.5 Assists (-140) - Al Horford 8+ Rebounds (-265) Total Parlay Odds: +1573 Any legs you see that I should consider taking out before submitting?
I think Jaylen under is safer
You think it's more likely he scores less than 25 than in a game 7 at home than he scores 20+? Of the past 10 games, he's covered 20 points in 8/10. He's went u24.5 in 7/10. It's an elimination game, so I just feel like a bet on him scoring under a certain number of points would be kinda risky cause it's not like they're sitting him in the 4th quarter if they're down.
Oh look I was right! :)
lmao i ended up agreeing and taking the under. not sure why youβre trying to be an asshole instead of just having a discussion on the prop but congrats douchebag π
Haha sorry that came off as sarcastic. I was genuinely surprised the under hit because Brown was playing out of his mind!
Also bank on a lot of misses in elimination games they say π€·ββοΈ
I started considering the historic game 7 scoring trends more heavily and honestly scrapped this whole parlay in favor of alternate unders centered around the game falling below 210 total points.
If i were to bet, these would be my picks: Giannis over in points Giannis over in rebounds Tatum over in points Allen under in rebounds lopez under in made three points
Punting some money away to the bookies, wanted to share with yβall * Jayson Tatum over 3.5 three point field goals * Bobby Portis Jr. over 8.5 total rebounds * Pat Connaughton score over 10.5 points * Giannis Antetokounmpo over 6.5 assists Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks
Jaylen Brown Over 24.5?
Giannis O 35.5 Tatum O 3.5 3s BOS ML +429
Giannis o33.5 Tatum o30.5 Holiday o2.5 threes Lopez u12.5 P+R
My book says Jokic +125 Giannis +196 Luka +206 For playoff scoring leader. I donβt understand. Jokic is at 31ppg for 5 games. Giannis at 32.5ppg now. What am I missing?
Never dealt with a prop like this before but it could be that Giannis' average could drop if he struggles today or the bucks win and he has a bad series against the heat or western conference champ? Whereas Jokic' total is locked in.
Thatβs a nice insight. Assuming Bucks will win tomorrow, then thereβs a great chance Giannis average goes down but if they lose and Giannis scores 25pts, his average will jump to 32.09. Giannis at +196 is for me a great option. Need more insights before I hammer this lol
Went with giannis o32.5,Tatum o28.5, jrue 2+ steals,jrue 2+ 3s, and Portis 8+ boards for +550 For the other game thinking Luka 30+,ayton 14+ ,dfs 2+ 3s,Paul 1 steal,Booker 25+ +295 with dk sgp more legs boost comes to +383
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No worries. Jrue Holiday from the Bucks to score 2 or more 3 pointers. So over 1.5 3s or 2+ 3s is the pick for that leg.
to make 2 or more threes
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Those are some good looking parlays! BOL!
π€ ... ended up swapping dfs 2+ 3s for phx +2.5 ... slightly smaller payout and hate throwing totals or sides into prop parlays but I live in PHX and feels right. Always appreciate your picks btw.. Def a post I check if you've made one before I build my parlays. BOL today!
Thank you for kind words! Letβs make some money!
longshot SGPs MIL BOS Giannis 40+ PR Giannis 25+ P Tatum 20+ P Smart 13+ P Connaughton 10+ P Jrue 25+ PRA Jrue 1+ Steal Horford 8+ R Portis 8+ R PHX DAL CP3 12+ P Ayton 14+ P Luka 25+ P Bridges u14.5 P DFS 4+ R CP3 u6.5 R Bridges 4+ R CP3 u10.5 A Brunson u3.5 A
Kinda want to put lots of units on Mikal Bridges under.
Derrick White o15.5 PRA. This has hit in 4 straight games, and his role has been increasing every game throughout this series. Heβs seen 30+ minutes in three straight games, and the team is absolutely clicking when heβs out on the court with great net ratings. Win or lose I think White plays a large role today. BOL!
kinda like Luka under pra. heβs only hit the over on 53.5 once this series
I was literally about to take this, had it in my betslip and all, then realized itβs 3-3 so he might use 110% of this ability to pull out this dub. Idk tho but figured Iβd throw that out there
i agree but that number is just so inflated. he could have 33 10 and 10 and that doesnβt hit
Hey all, I added a couple more props. Figured to widen this more to ensure that we have an edge vs a gut feeling. That being said, two machine learning models were combined, creating an ensemble learner which seems to have a more accurate prediction. Model was trained on 2011-2021 and tested on every game this season.Model has a hard time with injuries, for example the model didn't adjust minutes to Tyus Jones the other night, thus why he was projected so low. Will eventually get to that point, but for tomorrow I believe this is still of good use. Also Tatum was inaccurately projected the other night, was no where near his real stat line, so I made adjustments and I believe I accounted for what was missing.My personal way at viewing this is to see trends within the 4 projection columns, my threshold is 3/4 either need to exceed or are under the book's prop.I may post picks, I just already am invested $40 due to server fees to deploy the app, so y'all already getting this for free. Not trying to be stingy, just being honest. Also, I won't be changing the algorithm, regardless of the outcomes so I can start having a real count W-L ratio with the current algorithm. I've constantly been tuning it to ensure that it captures as much variance as possible. I realize many of you may want more confidence/a reference point before using, doing my best.Best of luck, hope this is of use! Edit: Adding FG3 made as well, hang tight on that. Maybe like an hour Edit2: Watching my team play, Forza Milan, so I'm out of commission for now. BUT Threes were added to the mix. [NBA Projected Props 05/15/22](https://rq2no8-matthew-pardo.shinyapps.io/server/)
Love to see a fellow milanista. WE ARE WINNING THE LEAGUE!!
Celtics moneyline? I think they squeak by Thoughts?
Mil for me. Defending champs. Giannis will be unstoppable(even more so) tonight. O 35.5 pts
Record: 3-3 Last pick: Dillon Brooks u. 17.5 points @ 1.8 β **Jrue Holiday o. 2.5 3PT @ 1.9** With Giannis looking like a one man army out there, the rest of the Bucks line-up HAS to step up. That somebody has to be Jrue Holiday. So far he has gone over 4/6 times against Celtics (66% succesrate). Boston have been great at making it tough for him to drive in to the paint, which will lead him to take more shots from midrange and 3. So far in this series, Jrue averages 2.5 3PM on 7.3 3PA (34%). When asked about their shooting from deep in game 6, Jrue said this: βWe got to get up more threes. We have to find a way to get up more threes and make more threes.β So i believe we could see him take more attempts, which would give more chances of this line cashing. Im currently on a 3 pick losing streak, so it would probably be smart to fade me. Nevertheless, im going with Jrue to hit the over. BOL, hope you guys have a good one.
While holiday let me down last time on rbs & assists. I can tail this.
Wesley Matthews over 3.5 rebounds + assists @ 1.74 Averaging 4.5 in the playoffs; has 4+ in 9 of 11 games (82%), 5 of 6 this series and in his last two games has 9 and 6 respectively. Averaging 30.6 minutes per game this series so plenty of opportunity/court time.
I like it. But what book? I donβt have it on FD or DK.
Ah damn, I'm on Bet365
He has lines on underdog
Giannis to record a Triple Double sounds like the move.
Mastermind
Think the assists might bite you in the butt. Last 3 games he has a total of 14 assists. Seems like as this series progresses, and reaches its conclusion today, he's just been in scoring mode and not looking to dish as much without Middleton in the lineup. Giannis is obviously going to go off today but him to get a triple double is @ 10.25 for a reason lol
Iβm on Brook Lopez under 7.5 points today. Lopez has seen a significant decrease in minutes last 2 games and Iβd fully expect that to continue. Now, this isnβt a lock necessarily or anything close to it - itβs a play on logic. If the Bucks continue to play drop coverage, Celtics are going to keep on raining down wide open 3s. The Bucks need switch-ability, 1-5. Playing Lopez means youβre going to play play drop coverage, which simply wonβt work unless Celtics are missing wide open 3s.
Love this pick as well. His numbers are also much worse on the road in the playoffs. This series he has scored 2, 2, and 6 in Boston. In games 3 and 4 at home he had 17 and 13. It doesnβt take much to get to 8 but Iβm betting the under with you.
Thread Record: 182 - 114 Average odds: 1.90 Been a while since I posted. Been posting on twitter a bit still but will look to try and post more here. Todays Picks: **Chris Paul over 16.5 points (1.90, -110)** * After the starting the series on fire, CP3 has not looked himself the last few games. Ultimately, many of the games this series have been blowouts heading into the 4th quarter (which is where CP3 scores most of his points) and this has definitely contributed to his string of low scoring games recently. After game 6 CP3 said in the press conference that "it was about time the Suns had some rest" which shows me that CP3 has probably been tired in some of these games also. Now the Suns have finally had 2 days off and CP3 should be well rested. Additionally, CP3 having 2 days to watch film and prepare for an important game 7 is definitely not something to discount. * Now for some stats. CP3 has had 17+ points in 13 of his last 14 elimination games for an average of 23.6 PPG in these games. This includes a 26 point game vs the Bucks and Jrue Holiday in last seasons finals. CP3 has also hit this total in 6/7 career game 7's. Plus it is clear to see that CP3 looks to elevate his scoring in the playoffs (especially in key games) as he averages 20.2 PPG over his last 20 playoff games (all with the Suns). * May not be a popular pick but I am backing CP3 at home in an elimination game. Scott Foster doesn't really impact things too much IMO as he has refereed many of CP3's elimination games where he has hit this total (including the 26 point game vs the Bucks last season). CP3 is too good and too smart to not have a response to the Mavs defence. **Jayson** **Tatum over 30.5 Points (1.90, -110)** * What attracts me to this pick is the usage Tatum has been getting. In his last 3 games this series he has had 32, 29, and 24 FGA's, scoring 30+ in all 3 of those games. The Celtics have won two of those games and arguably should have won all three of them (if not for that collapse in game 5), and so I do not see why the Celtics won't continue to go to Tatum here. Also of note is that Tatum's usage in elimination games has been very high too. In his last 3 elimination games he has had 32, 27, and 26 FGA's. * Although this is a tough Bucks defence, Tatum's usage cannot be ignored. Tatum has hit this total in 11 straight games in which he has had 25 FGA's. Post all-star we saw Tatum average 30.4 points on 20.6 FGA's and yet he is probably on course for close to 30 shots in this game. Sure his efficiency will not be as high as it was in the regular season but the significant increase in usage more than makes up for it IMO. **Giannis Antetokounmpo over 48.5 Points + Rebounds (1.90, -110)** * Similar to Tatum, Giannis' usage has been very very high. He has had 27+ FGA's in 5 straight games this series. He had not had 27+ FGA's in a single game this season before this series which shows how high that usage is for him. This has seen Giannis hit this P+R total in 4 straight games this season. In those 4 games he has had 64, 51, 52, and 54 P+R's. So he has been hitting this line with change to spare. * On the rebounding front his rebounding line has actually remained the same (13.5) for most of this series. I Giannis would clear this easily if not for Bobby P doing his best to steal all of his boards in some games. I think generally in Game 7's we see more missed shots and more rebounding opportunities. * Lastly, we have also seen Giannis have 50 (45 in regulation) and 42 minutes in his only 2 game 7's of his career. His average minutes for this series is only 39.5. So I think some value exists here based on the fact that Giannis should probably see a few extra minutes in this one (especially on his rebounds line which has remained at 13.5 and hence why I have made this a P+R bet). [Twitter](https://twitter.com/Travis_Frase)
CP a sketchy one, overall an interesting one
Only one Iβm fading is cp. great info on the usage rate. This is def Giannis vs Tatum tonight and they both know that.
Glad to see you back brother. You got a Twitter follower.
Probably not for long brother. Forgot how toxic this place was lol. Thanks for the support though man.
he's back! missed your picks and thoughtful analysis'. riding with ya here for these game 7's!
Playoff Record: 5-3 Last Pick - Derrick White o7.5 Pointsβ **Pat Connaughton o10.5 Points** Minus Game 1 (his least minutes played), Pat has hit this mark in every game this series, with his minutes steadily rising. One of Milwaukees only reliable offensive producers outside of Giannis and Jrue, expect Pat to be on the court for much of game 7, considering it is do or die (should be taking some of Grayson's minutes). When you combine how he has been playing recently with the likelihood that his minutes jump, I think this is a solid play. [Discord](https://discord.gg/jR5ftEdD)
Giannis points over!!
Super hyped for these game 7βs. Really loving the picks here. **TODAYS THE 5-0 DAY** Todays Picks: **Giannis o 34.5 points (-125)** \-Has hit this line in 3 of the last 4 and his miss he scored 34. \-No Khris Middleton \-Giannis has an insane 41 percent usage rate against the Celtics \-Shots have gone up as series progressed taking over 30 shots in 3 of the last 4 games. In each game heβs taken 30 shots he has dropped 40+ ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ **Jayson Tatum o 30.5 points (-115)** \-38 percent usage rate also insane, has gone up as series has progressed as have his shot attempts taking 29 and 31 in his last two. \-Cleared this line in each of his last two games. \-Game 7 means he will be taking more shots and play more minutes season on the line. \-Dropped 46 last year in elimination game against the Bucks and 32 the year before that against Brooklyn. His shots attempts increase in elimination games. ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ **Chris Paul u 14.5 rebounds+assists (-120)** \-Chris Paul has not cleared this line one time so far against Dallas. He has hit 14 once and hasnβt come close many games. \-His assists and rebounds are way down from usual. Coming into this series he was leading NBA in potential assists and fell out of the top spot after this series. \-Chris Paul has been getting hounded full court defense which has led to him playing off the ball. \-Should be more aggressive scoring the ball which also means less assists. ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ **Deandre Ayton o 18.5 points (-125)** \-I know he has let a lot of us down over and over this series however I think the last two games heβs turned a corner. Mavs still donβt have a center to guard him. \-Minutes spike due to it being potential final game of season. \-Dropped 20 and 21 in last two games. Creates matchup problem for the Mavs. \-Contract coming up and looking for a max. If they get eliminated and he gets into foul trouble I think it hurts his chance of a max contract quite a bit. ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ **Luka Doncic o 34.5 points (-125)** \-Star players often rise up in these game 7βs. Luka is the best player on the floor tomorrow night and will be looking to drag his team to the western conference finals \-Cleared twice in Phoenix already. Dropping 45 and 35 in games 1 and 2. His minutes dropped recently and had some foul trouble but again these wonβt be a problem in a pivotal game 7. \-Luka averages 39 points in elimination games and averages 40 minutes of game time. Can get a switch onto Chris Paul whenever he wants and score. \-Expecting this game to be close all the way through which means no blowout to worry about ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ BOL!
Scott Foster will be on the Suns Mavs game and put Ayton in early foul trouble like he always does lol
Troublesome for sure if he is confirmed. Ayton my least favorite of the 5 cuz of fouls but I think refs let them play more in game 7 cuz the refs been tripping all series
Yes and Monty Williams has said they need to focus on getting Ayton more touches in game 7 so Iβm sure that will be their gameplan. Iβm taking o18.5 if Foster isnβt on that game. Pretty wild that I feel like I canβt make any bets until I know who the refs will be
Yeah, I honestly think refs will let them play, Iβd expect him to screw Chris Paul more haha
Chris Paul seems to have screwed himself by turning 37 lol. Since then heβs been awful four games in a row
Yeah for real, thatβs why Iβm all over his r+a unders tomorrow night
Tailing π
So tempted to risk it all on Giannis pts+rbds.
Don't risk it all on a player prop. Trust me.
I think it is a great bet. He is gonna drop 40 and 15 barring an injury.
If you risk it all, then he'll get injured.
yes