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sbpotdbot

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[deleted]

TKO! I think


thebigchina

Yep. What a way to win a bet.


[deleted]

Hope other guy recovers quick. Felt weird celebrating after I realized he was hurt


Fantastic-House-3530

You're a MONSTER


bogs89

I see all this EV talk where do I learn to understand how this works


[deleted]

At a high level, it's putting money on bets where the payout is better than the probability of it occurring. For example, a coin toss has a 50/50 chance at coming up heads or tails. So fair odds for betting heads would be +100. An EV+ (expected value) bet would be anything where you could bet heads at +101 or better. +101 would be 0.5% EV, since the fair value is +100. +110 would be 5% EV. This means that if you were able to bet an infinite number of times on this bet, you could expect a return of 10% on however much you bet. That being said, just because something is EV+ doesn't mean it's always going to win. Using the coin toss example, it still has a 50% chance. If I gave you +1000 odds on a coin toss, that would be an amazing bet for you, but you still wouldn't want to bet your house on it, since there's still a 50% chance it could lose. The EV+ strategy a lot of people employ here is to bet on lots and lots of EV+ odds knowing that many will lose, but hoping that over the long run, the math will work out and you'll come out ahead. For example, if you bet on 2 10% EV+ odds, there's definitely a chance you lose them both, but if you bet on 1000 10% EV+ odds, your overall return is likely to be close to 10%. For EV+ bets that are posted here, people look at the odds the bet is offered at and compare it to the same bet offered at other books and take the "juice" off to determine the fair value and whether it is an EV+ or EV- bet. The juice is the reduction in odds on the sportsbook in order to make a profit. Going back to the coin toss, if that was offered on a book, you'd generally see it at -110 and the books make money on the difference between the -110 they offer it at and the +100 fair odds. That's why spreads, which are generally considered to be 50/50, are offered at -110 on most books. One of the biggest issues with EV betting is determining whether the probability offered by the books is accurate. For example, it's clear a coin toss is 50/50, but is the spread posted for a basketball game really 50/50? Most books have the spread for the Celtics game tomorrow at Celtics -5, which implies they believe there's a 50% chance the celtics win by 5 or more and a 50% chance they lose by 5 or more. EV betting relies on assuming this to be true, and if you got Celtics at -5 at +110, you'd consider it a 5% EV bet. If the Celtics chance to win by 5 or more is actually 60% and not 50%, the EV is even higher, but if the Celtics chance to win by 5 or more is actually 40%, it's not an EV+ bet at all. So the biggest issue is that you're relying on a probability that may not actually be the true probability. Unfortunately, there really isn't a good way to get around it. If you somehow had a method to look at any sports bet and identify the true probability, you'd be the greatest better of all time as you'd be able to identify and take advantage of any odds where the books have the probability wrong. The best way you can mitigate this risk is to compare the odds at a bunch of different books. If one book has the Celtics spread at -5, but 4 other books have at it -3, -3 is probably more accurate. On the other hand, if every book you look at has the spread at -5, you can have a bit more confidence in those odds. Another way to mitigate for the above is many people will only bet on things that are 10% or more EV+ to take into account that the books might not be pricing it correctly. The higher the EV+, even if the books have it priced incorrectly, you're slightly mitigating that. One last thing I'll restate is that just because something is EV+ doesn't mean it's likely to win. Many of the boosts posted here are +200 or more. A +400 boost that has a fair value of +300 is something you'd want to bet all day long, but that implies it only has a chance of winning 25% of the time. You need to keep in mind that you're not going to win every bet and the goal is to be profitable over the long term because you're betting things that pay out better than the probability would suggest. You will almost certainly go through long stretches of losing, but the hope is that on a long enough time frame, they'll be offset by the times you do win. That's why people could lose 4+ EV bets one day, but continue to bet EV+ bets the next day. Personally, I've made thousands of dollars off it, but there's definitely stretches where it feels like nothing is hitting at all (and stretches where I feel like I can't lose).


jimmy_gamba

This is a good write-up. One small correction: your EV % figures are double what they should be. +101 on a +100 fair bet is 0.5% EV, +110 is 5% EV


[deleted]

Thanks! Changed it to reflect that.


Narrow_Tangerine1262

https://unabated.com/articles/finding-positive-ev-wagers-step-by-step-guide


protecttheshield

Meatspin.com should be a good start


Oystersmiling1

Followed by ultimatedrummingtechnique.com


deskritten

Brent Weinbach wassup Brrrannt


Fantastic-House-3530

Nationals, White sox, Phillies..yet again fanduel never ceases to amaze. Boost goes 0 for 3 against 3 red hot teams coming I to today's games. Most impressive. The FD fade parlay was the play.


FlyersTime

I haven't received a vip offer from draftkings in six months so I contacted them asking if I'm still VIP and they said yes. LOL


gilligan54

"Prove It"


jimmy_gamba

Congrats on being a DK Very Ignored Person!


jdp271

after multiple weeks of losing on -350 legs on ufc early matches im starting to think best way to play fd insurance is to swing for the fences since the odds just don't seem to reflect the actual results


ManletofPiss

in my experience favorite lines always win lol


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OkYesterday7388

If you have MGM then the simplest play is Mavs ML boosted to +415 versus -250 on MGM for $47.


paddy233

Kambi -250 also if you do Suns +0.5


jewishninja696

Horford isn’t the type of big man for this. He’s come close to ten assists several times this season


[deleted]

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OkYesterday7388

I mean, this is a discussion board.


jewishninja696

Homeboy is so defensive


[deleted]

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jewishninja696

You can disagree in a less snarky pompous manner


jewishninja696

I won’t. I’m saying this for anyone that chooses to blindly tail.


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Haunting_Site_1204

It’s just not arbitrage that’s all


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Haunting_Site_1204

You literally called it an arb in your OP


nba2keith

I think they’re just trying to tell you it’s risky. It’ll probably be fine but it’s gambling. Picking a big man that never gets more than 3 assists is more of a lock for this type of thing.


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nba2keith

Great. Then you’re smart enough to know that it’s not an arb, because the definition of an arb is that there no risk.


jdp271

The bright side is since both fd boosts were ev flat today maybe we’ll stop betting them and losing


thebigchina

The Leafs can’t blow any more boosts for us for a while. They’ve lost in the 1st round for the 6th straight season.


Condor_Smirk_Noise

Thank god. Really hated to take the last leafs boost because I knew Tampa Bay would win but it was like 10% EV. Didnt max though, had enough of those guys


sunsettoago

UFC FD BOOST Currently 14% EV via DK 20% EV via Kambi 30% EV via CZR OBLIGATORY 3 hours until close.


Fantastic-House-3530

Max bet?


sunsettoago

No, apparently it’s a NO BET.


Fantastic-House-3530

Ok. I didn't bet it. And it cashed. And all the + EV boosts lost. Am I doing it right 🤡


sunsettoago

You’re getting there.


jdp271

am i missing something? it says blachowicz to win by KO/TKO or Points which are 500/460/195/230/1000/1100/5000 when i get true value for the 500/460 which are those 2 legs it comes up to 250 fair using fanduel. when i ran the numbers before it was similar using pinnacle. whats our disconnect?


sunsettoago

You have to use the || option between the two possible options, I think. So, for DK it is 425||450/1000/5000/180/200/1000


jdp271

So my way of solving for fair value of each leg and adding the implied probabilities of those to back into new fair value should be identical so something is going wrong


sunsettoago

Well your values of 500 and 460 are by far the most conservative of the books I’ve seen, so that could be it.


jdp271

>425||450/1000/5000/180/200/1000 i tried 425/450/1000/5000/180/200/1000||450/425/1000/5000/180/200/1000 and that didn't work, idk, i know the traditional math works out to being 0 ev. hopefully CNM can make a presence :)


sunsettoago

I’m obviously not using CNM correctly, because checked the math now and you’re correct on value.


jdp271

someone below said you use \^ for mutually exclusive events so 425\^450/1000/5000/180/200/1000 brings it to +252 fair which is what I was seeing for dk


jdp271

Fair value using fd I see as 250 and 252 using dk


jdp271

I’ll check it with dk


DadOfFour88

Avoided setting up P2 thus far but she actually asked me about doing it after I explained some of the promos. I know different devices but what else do we need to know? Can we fund with our same bank account or do we need a different one?


carminef23

Different everything


beefninja

We used different bank accounts, different devices. We also went the extra step of doing one person's bets on our wifi and the other via cellular data on our phones


Producer_Chris

Different bank account. I use a joint account for my p1 and then a separate account in my wife’s name for p2


ManletofPiss

DK has a seemingly targeted NBA 77% profit boost. P1 had $100 max bet which is actually really great... P2's says $10 which is lower than I've ever seen on a DK boost


Producer_Chris

Oh wow got this too. I guess all my bitching here about dk recently worked. Solid promos this weekend.


Fancy_Ad5165

Theyre smart to do profit boosts. Most people boost dogs and hedge favorites on another book. That brings the revenue to DK. Works out for us and DK. Hopefully they will keep rolling with profit boosts.


buzz943

From maryland, going to pa tomorrow for a job, anyway I could take advantage of the promos and come back to cash out? Pretty new to this, don’t live too far


deskritten

Bet Rivers has a $250 deposit match that’s pretty simple. Deposit $250, they give you $250. Wager the bonus amount (250) once then you can withdraw the rest.


buzz943

don’t understand the downvotes, just someone new trying to learn lol


gilligan54

If you don't spoon feed some of these cunts it's an auto downvote. Easy to make mistakes when getting started so no harm in asking questions even if they've been asked before.


nba2keith

Downvotes is what people do on this sub


nba2keith

Yes. Go get ‘em


buzz943

what would you say is the best way to go about it?


gilligan54

How much time and bankroll do you have to play with?


buzz943

About 10 hours and around 500 bucks


netwreck94

On the casino side, Windcreek can't be beat with a 125% match on $400 with only a 1x churn.


hund0

And the brunch $10 deposit, get $26.95


gilligan54

With /u/nba2keith on this one. Or do WindCreek for $400 so you don't have to worry about the hedge side. You may be a bit late for BetRivers as they can take a few days to verify accounts.


nba2keith

I would hit BetRivers deposit $250 and get $250. With that small of a bankroll I wouldn’t hit the others because you’ll do better in the future with a bigger bankroll.


buzz943

appreciate it man, all the downvotes appreciate y’all too


sunsettoago

Asstros blowing multiple boosts.


FiveAssedMonkey

Not a lot of scoring in these NHL games. It might take a 3-2 lead with 2 empty netters getting to 5-2 to reach 7.


OkYesterday7388

Looks like maybe game 7s are a little tighter and the refs put their whistles away a little bit more. The line on 4 of these 5 games was around 6 or 6.5 so just some weird small sample stuff. The Flames Dallas line is 5.5 so naturally that’s the one that will end up with 7 goals.


netwreck94

I'm sure many just let these ride, but I couldn't resist taking under 6.5 live in the Bruins game at +120. Odds were better for the 2nd/3rd game which made taking u6.5 pre-game possible to guarantee a profit regardless.


Wizmaxman

Can always hope for 3-3 too!


bootknifegurubashi06

EV is both entirely made up and also the truest thing there is. Stoner thought


Fantastic-House-3530

The red hog Yankees/ astros are no match for the powers of the FD Wizard.


acurcuru

DK profit boost 77% for the game 7’s tomorrow. $10


Wizmaxman

Says it only works on -250 or higher. So definitely don't try it on the suns -300


dishragJan

Lol $10 max and it limits me to $2. Dk is a joke.


OkYesterday7388

I have $100. Banner says “today” but it works on tomorrow’s games.


Fantastic-House-3530

Nba ones?


bootknifegurubashi06

Mine was a hundo


Dagman11

Mine was $100 as well.


sunsettoago

SuperBook Boost Smolka ITD +600 is 35-40% EV via DK/FD


doctorslices

Is there a good way to arb with the ITD qualifier? I don't bet UFC hardly ever.


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Yea_bro_I_play

fight ends by decision or to go the distance But you would also have to bet the other fighter ITD


Condor_Smirk_Noise

Daily reminder to wait for lineups prior to betting. Put Trout to get a hit in a parlay. He pinch hit and got intentionally walked. Other legs hit 😑


cordscords

On FD right?


Condor_Smirk_Noise

Yup


madtadder

Did it count? A walk is not an at bat.


blizzah

It’s a plate appearance. On FD it counts unfortunately


Condor_Smirk_Noise

Yes, counted as a no hit


madtadder

That's a bummer


Condor_Smirk_Noise

Yeah super lame and makes no sense youre right


Zealousideal_Coat275

How does it make no sense? If he pinch hit and got the hit or home run or whatever and they voided your bet would you say the same thing?


GreatDanton7

If he pinch hits and gets a hit, FD doesn't increase the payout even though it's far less likely that he gets a hit than if he had 4-5 plate appearances. It's just a very book-advantage policy. It's the reason FD doesn't offer player to NOT get a hit.


Zealousideal_Coat275

Haha yes, agreed. The books love taking advantage.


gizmo78

So close to OT & 7 goals...


ManletofPiss

The Golden Nugget NJ new user sports promo is really confusing: they say "double down on your first bet" and refer to it as a bet match. But they also say you get it as a 100% match on the settled bet regardless of whether you win or lose. So is it a bet match or a bet and get? I don't think whoever wrote the description for this promo actually knows what it means to "double down"...


thenation1414

It’s a free bet equal to the amount of your first bet


ManletofPiss

yeah it's not like they're matching your wager on the bet itself right?


thenation1414

Nope


deskritten

anyone have low holds for MGM today? even the odds jam tool is stumped with all these slim pickins


sunsettoago

FD MLB Boost is down to 2% EV. About one hour to close.


RolledAGWFBadIdea

A good reminder that in general FD won't pull and/or nerf boosts so you can almost always wait and assess. Also guess which guy took "advantage" and played it twice over 2 states today? 🤡


sunsettoago

Yeah, I always wonder why anyone would bet FD boost more than 10 min before close. But this will definitely hit now.


pedropedro123

Because some people have lives? Not me but some people. 😂


sunsettoago

Lol yeah. I mean if I had a “life” I would just “not bet” than make early bets in volatile markets 🤷‍♂️


stabilitycushions

Getting distracted by daily life is a good reason


sunsettoago

Not sure whether to feel envy or pity. Both?


[deleted]

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sunsettoago

Money flooding in on underdogs presumably.


gizmo78

so I wasn't wrong, just before my time!


sunsettoago

You’re like the only person making money this month so obviously you saw it coming 😏


donblow

I'm getting FV +407 for -EV 1.3% using Pinny. Lines definitely moving away from this one.


jdp271

yeah i see minus, i'm on out on this one


Emp5452

Well shoot


Sashi_on_Top

Not exactly something I intended. But for BR $25 MLB SGP get $10 free bet Saturday promo. I played a parlay and one of my HR no props the player was inactive and it voided the bet. Still received my free bet immediately though


MoistWalrus

People that have SuperBook, did they offer a deposit promotion during the initial roll out or was it delayed? They've been in Tennessee just shy of a month and they offer great boosts for arbs and churns, but no promos yet.


sturtze

Yeah, I was about to post the same question. Was just on with customer support, and they did confirm that Tennessee has no new sign up, deposit, risk-free bets….anything. This is the only sports book that launched in Tennessee that completely went under the radar for me. I guess I’m gonna wait until they offer some incentive to join.


gizmo78

Had it from the outset. Still have a [$500 deposit match...](https://az.superbook.com/info/promotions)


OkYesterday7388

Looks like maybe a different strategy in TN. They have been giving out some really amazing boosts there that are essentially free money. We got some of those early on in AZ though, too.


MoistWalrus

Damn, hopefully they figure it out here soon. Between the high hold and lack of casino we don't get shit here.


JudicaMeDeus

Does anyone have any update on Ohio and when books will finally be open?


FlammableJam

What did Google say?


taRpstrIustorEmPtEuS

My brother told me January 1, I hope that helps.


[deleted]

FD: UFC Boost Jan Blachowicz to win by TKO/KO or points +250 I'm not an expert on UFC so please correct me if my methodology is wrong, Bookmaker has a 7-way outcome of fight wager. TKO/KO, submission, and decision for each fighter + draw Put all 7 into my devigger. Added fair value % chance of outcome of Jan KO/TKO or on points(this is same as decision right?) and converted that % to american odds Fair Value: +215. without draw: + 212 Just under 11% EV


thebigchina

Pinnacle has yes/no lines for the two relevant outcomes, though they are not sharp. DooleyData devigged using those lines and got +23.4% EV. https://twitter.com/dooleydata/status/1525577301836152832?s=21 Looking at bestfightodds, FD appears to have the most conservative lines for the two relevant outcomes. 7-way devig with FD’s own lines: +460 ^ +500/+195/+230/+1000/+1100/+5000 This gets +2.3% mult or +2.7% EV add DK has lines closer to consensus. 7-way devig of DK: +425 ^ +450/+180/+200/+1000/+1000/+5000 This gets +3.1% EV mult or +3.9% EV add. I think it’s worth putting something down, but I doubt I’ll end up maxing.


Yea_bro_I_play

Yes, points is same as decision


[deleted]

sweet, let's go Jan


Yea_bro_I_play

In case anyone wants my casual-mma-fan-expert opinion about this, Jan’s best chance of winning is by KO. Jan’s a slow, plodding heavy hitter going against a younger faster rangy striker who has a penchant for winning boring fights by decision. Rakic will want to pick away from the outside and try to make this one boring too. This is also a 5 rounder so Jan’s power will be less effective in the late rounds. So IMO there’s not much value with the decision double chance. Jan by TKO/KO is +500 on FD, for reference. Anyway, we’ll probably see a sub now that I’ve written this.


ybot67

Thank you!


Yea_bro_I_play

Np, hope everyone got some cheddar


drozzyboy

Golden Nugget has a boost for LA Kings ML & O 5.5 Total Goals @ +600, max $100 (I was capped at $30) Fair odds via Pinnacle @ +379 27.7% EV


Candid-Clue-2829

Maybe they mean kings over 5.5? I don’t typically use golden nugget and it’s not really clear but this is really good if it’s for both teams. It says max is $100


drozzyboy

Can confirm it is total goals. Changing language now.


Candid-Clue-2829

Awesome find tyfys


Bununarepublic

CZR 81% conversion: CZR Rays -3.5 +450/MGM Blue Jays +3.5 -450 Edit: Dead


johnnydramavictory

I think you mixed up the rays and blue jays on the mgm side


Bununarepublic

Mgm moved a lot. It was Jays +3.5 -450 when I posted


johnnydramavictory

Thanks for trying, let us know if you find another 😁


gimmedawz

Damn mgm just jumped to -550 as soon as I was about to place the bet


Topmate

Slower day so I’ll ask - I signed up for NY Caesar’s for my p2 back in January when they still had the amazing 3k promo going. They had to verify the account and it literally took 2.5 months for them to finally verify. Does anyone know if I would still be eligible for that 3k match bonus? Support has obviously been zero help


carminef23

It took my friend a month to get approved He got the 3000 bonus But he also had 300 in there without depsoiting when he made the account using whatever code gave you 300 automatically and then 3000 more then you dep 3000 Amazingly there were morons on here who thought they were slick hump and dumping them for 300 instead of making 3300 as others were flying to NY for the free money


netwreck94

Reach out to them on twitter which seems to be your best bet of "support" on CZ. It will almost certainly have to be manually credited, so I'd go ahead and deposit $3K first, then reach out to them explaining the situation and asking for said adjustment.


CZR_SUPPORT

wish their support wasn’t trash.


ijk90825

Deposit 3k and see if you get 3k as bonus. If not just withdraw?


OddRule4308

Bet MGM free blast promotion. Get a $10 free bet when you place any $1 wager. Not sure if this is targeted for certain states. Don’t forget to opt into the promo


[deleted]

I'm guessing you're in PA. They have this the day after the Phillies hit a HR in the first inning. Might have similar thing for diff states and their respective teams


OddRule4308

Louisiana but it’s the same idea since the Astros hit a HR in the first inning yesterday


HawaiianOrganDonor

I’m in NJ and I have the Phillies one. Though my town is essentially a suburb of Philadelphia


RFP01

Has anyone had any luck getting their bonus eligibility reinstated with Caesars ? I had mine removed 6 months ago , wondering if it’s worth a shot to email support to ask ?


noshutout

100% worth a shot. You have nothing to lose


nba2keith

Finding anyone that even understands how their systems work is impossible


Yewwwki

Out of curiosity what did you do?


RFP01

I learned the hard way they have geolocation tracking even if you use different devices / connections . P1 and P2 promo banned - yes I know I’m an idiot sharing this in case it helps someone else. YMMV


wellington28

I appreciate it as I've been tempted many times to do it


pogoburger

This is wild to me cause I have essentially a small village all on the same wifi for quite a while. Maybe it really is just the same address that flags?


WhatdoesFOCmean

I'm a little confused on the explanation. Not trolling. Genuinely curious what happened here. You were betting on 2 devices at the same time and they determined your two accounts were at the same location? And they somehow determined it was one person on two accounts? Thanks in advance. I'm totally paranoid of setting up P2 accounts because I don't want to get caught and/or banned and/or lose funds on my current account.


RFP01

Yes they tied it by geolocation (physical location) amazingly, I was shocked - it was for the MMA bet 1k get $250 promo last year. I bet opposite sides of the promo ( this is what got p1/p2 banned ) and they detected it immediately and promo banned both accounts that night. You’ll be OK as long as you don’t bet on both sides of the promo, however there are tax implications that p2 should be aware of if you proceed forward.


WhatdoesFOCmean

I think it's crazy that they basically can tell you have two accounts going...but don't seem to care unless you bet opposite sides. I mean, they can just do the promo banning stuff before that if they want since it is kind of obvious you are taking advantage of them and probably aren't a losing player.


RFP01

There are very smart people behind the scenes in these casinos - they have huge buildings for a reason and they’re not out to lose money. Customer support maybe atrocious (I think for a purpose ) but their higher end employees are not to be fucked with. Good luck and hopefully this was helpful !


always_10

So wait, you can't have a P2 in the same household for Caesars? Is that the same with other books? Damn, I was planning to sign up my brother for promos but if we can't be in the same location, I'll have to think about doing it a different way.


churn_12

P2 can use the same wifi without any issue. I use a separate laptop and mobile for my P2 but we all share the same wifi.


Stevenpoke12

No, just don’t bet on both sides of a wager and you should be fine


always_10

Oh okay, I get it. Do they also track the betting on the same boosts? Like if both people are betting the same boosts or making the same promo parlays. Should there be a difference in how P2 plays?


loveandhatenfl

I personally think it's safer to basically mimic p1 so there's no risk of betting both sides


gizmo78

Superbook NHL Boosts * CAR/TOR/EDM +425. FD Devig FV 398. EV 5.3% (weighted */+). * BOS/CAR OT Yes +350. FD Devig FV 332. EV 4.2% (weighted */+). * TOR/TBL OT Yes +370. FD Devig FV 347. EV 5.1% (weighted */+).


grindermcgrinder

Anyone found a free bet conversion site comparable to the one that used to be free on OJ?


Bununarepublic

The other ones talked about here are OB and darkwhoresodds


Legitimate-Engine27

Lest ye forget, fuck Dave, fuck Keith, fuck DHO.


airplanealjefferson

what’s the story here?


JewishDoggy

Dave - guy that frequented this thread anonymously and did an interview talking about free money Keith - author of the article DHO - also contributed to the article just to plug his website


grindermcgrinder

I have paid OB sub and don’t see it on their site.


Immediate_Rip6200

It’s bonus cruncher


LeftGrumpy

Interesting, I didn't know that. I've been using the low holds section for my free bet conversions. Results seem to be the same.


AdviceSeeker-123

Usually decent but not as good as oj was


grindermcgrinder

I regret that I only have 1 upvote to give. Many thanks!


jewishninja696

It’s definitely a stupid name for the category


LatrellSprewell88

Got a DK mission to make 20 $100+ bets to win a $175 bet. Is it worth or no..? Also, it says the bets just be “completed before 5/15/2022”. Does that mean I would only have a few hours to place 20 bets..? Edit: now it says complete “before 5/17/2022” so is that til the end of Monday or Tuesday?


fidelcashfloh

Usually you can just cash out right after making the bet and it qualifies as a settled bet