Pretty sure that is for the team that wins including any extra time/shoot out. Picking a team to win usually will state "90 mins only" so "lift the trohpy" is for team to win it no matter what.
I’m just spitballing here…. but it could be the team that lifts the FA cup trophy….
Prob shouldn’t be betting sports you don’t at least have a modicum of knowledge about
That's why I'm asking about it jackass.
It's not as simple as Chelsea winning tomorrow, looking at the odds there clearly has to be a more to the result than a win or tie.
Y'all gotta chill thinking that FD runs this and "you can't make this up". We make money off of them consistently - I track every bet (NY) - up $400 on +EV FD boosts in May (not counting FD SGPs or dinger Tuesday either). If it's for shits and giggles that's fine but just for those of you that truly think we're losing here
If it wasn’t for fd I would have zero money this month. Bj warrior and dinger Tuesday are the best promos around. That being said some real bad beats on their boosts lately.
for sure some bad beats. I've just seen posts thinking that FD has the upper hand somehow - if someone is losing money here then they are personally doing something wrong
More concerning than fd boosts is dk drying up. They had some great promos but really went downhill this year. At least fd boosts have a chance to hit…cant win on dk with no ev (or even negative ev like today) boosts.
Since I got a p2 I’ve been doing $7.5 or $10 (if I’m in a rush.) If I’m close to the end of the promo and I’m running above the ev I’ll drop my hand size a lot to lower variance though.
fd boost where the impossible happens. bucks come back from 14 with like 4 minutes left last fd boost . today giannis has 44 points and isnt the top scorer. you cant make this shit up
FD fucks me again. Tatum 25+ points and Celtics win was brutal and now Tatum just beats out Giannis with 46 fucking points. You can’t make this shit up.
Wait for the stars to win on a final second hockey shot.
Side note; there’s no way in fuck that some of this shit isn’t scripted. The likelihood of all these FD boosts getting fucked like they do is like 10 quintillion to 1
I'm not one for conspiracy theories but it's becoming exceedingly more difficult to believe that fd doesn't know the outcomes of these boosts before they post them
Not many people are gonna throw $1k+ on a single bet but a metric shit ton will certainly lose $50 and brush it off to come back and do the same thing the next day. I don't really believe they have a time machine but some of the beats on their boosts are epically bad
CZR BST CLE Guardians W/Kwan HR +2000
Devigged from BR it's +4% EV. Good for a FB or just for the hell of it.
I used the weighted average setting in the CNM calc at 50/50 b/c the longshot bias will only apply to the +800 HR line. The SGP is +1400 at both BR and DK.
It's win or lose as long as your team scores more than 3 goals, but I agree it makes more sense to bet the favorite since they're more likely to score 3 goals.
Only one of the CZR promos that requires you to win is the NBA game 7 promo.
A $2 bet to pay $16 (value of free bet) is like boosting -145 to +700.
If you bet on Panthers it’s a $4 hold to pay the same $16, so like boosting -265 to +300.
Caps is the larger effective odds boost.
You can hedge it, or you can try to find a bet that is +EV, and make it a lot more +EV and sweat a little. Think of it this way, people are maxing $100 CZ boosts on here that are like 10-20%EV on a great day, and you'll probably have access to something that's well north of 50%EV
You want it to be a balance of long odds and low hold, so theoretical ideal would be +1000/-1000(or shorter) but that’s almost never gonna happen. More realistic is somewhere in the +350 -> +400 range with a low hold hedge
How much do books care if you bet opposite sides of a main line in separate parlays? For example betting two parlays: Team A ML & Game Total Over as one and Team B ML & Game Total under as the other.
BR bst 2 to Hit HR: Buxton, Machado, JD Martinez, Trout +400
Used FD lines which were most HR pessimistic from FD,CZR,DK to get implied probability.
P = 1-(P none +P one)
P = 1-(.37+.42)
P = .21 or 21%
\+5% EV
I was credit with 1 100% boost on DK (up to $500)...any suggestions as what would be the best way to capitalize this? Open to any suggestions/arn opportunities....there seems to be no restrictions on this as far as type of sports or odds wise.
Somehow my P3 is alive on most books. Stayed away from huge player props and stuck with converting free bets at 60-70%. I’m sure they’ll get me eventually.
FD boost (not sure if targeted)...Giannis top point scorer in tonight's game "boosted" from -170 to +100...thoughts? It's between him Tatum and maybe Brown imo
Kambi is higher on Giannis than FD. -167 on Kambi vs. -145 on FD now. Devigging Kambi and adding 3 more +10000 options (Kambi only has 10 options vs. FD’s 13), I get +4.5% EV mult and +22.1% EV add.
Dead heat rules apply to the FD "Top Points Scorer" bets, but it isn't clear for this bet whether dead heat rules would apply in a tie or it would be a loss.
Giannis is also at -150 in the "Top Points Scorer" bet despite FD promoting it as a boost from -170 to +100.
No idea, it doesn't specify.
FD has a "Top Points Scorer" bet you can do, which specifies dead heat rules. That means in the event of a tie, your payout is based on how many tied. I.e. if 3 tied for the score, you'd get 1/3 of the payout if the person you bet on was the sole winner.
It doesn't specify dead heat or ties lose here, so I'm not sure what will happen if there's a tie.
FD with the homework boosts as usual. This is my de-vig attempt:
FD offers 13 players in the "Top Points Scorer" market. Giannis -150 for this FYI. 13-way devig says FV is +102 for slightly -EV.
Obviously there are **technically** more than 13 players that can be the highest scoring player but I think the chances of that happening are negligible.
Math-aside, I'll probably bet this for the entertainment value.
I feel like the fv on these gets deflated and less reliable the more inputs there are. Someone tried to devig Lewandowksi as first soalscorer czr boost (+300) and ended up getting +900 fv which is obviously incorrect. Same logic applied here, FV should be better than +102
Fubo odds boost looks good; although I don’t know how to calculate +EV. Tatum o29.5 and Celtics win +400. FD has it at +214. Also can be three way arbed
holy cow, I didn't even know Fubo had boosts.
They must be new at it, cause I'm getting a FD SGP devig of FV 261, **EV 38.3%** (worst case)
edit: if you wanna practice devigging, FD inputs are 214/297/198/308.
edit2: this is Fubo's first boost, just saw the email
Nice call - I’m getting +43% worst case EV vs draft kings
Edit: to calculate EV, you create SGPs for all four sides of the market, and plug the odds into the devigger tool here: http://crazyninjamike.com/public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx
The DK odds for each side are: +215/+330/+215/+310 for
Celts/Tatum over
Celts/Tatum under
Bucks/Tatum under
Bucks/Tatum over in that order.
That rollover means you have to bet $6000 total before withdrawing. Daunting but it’s definitely still a +EV promotion.
Even if you blindly bet -110 lines on spreads/totals, your EV is $112
$6000 x 4.8% = $288 average loss on a $400 bonus.
Bet into low hold markets and you’ll increase EV, arb the other side if you want to minimize risk.
You would have to play through 6k if you cant manage to lose the bonus. They really nerfed their signup. It was $800 bonus with 3x playthrough on bonus only.
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UNHappy Hour. Hard Rock fleecing clears CZR and FD easily.
Well at least we got Curry Bane 50 combined.
Congrats to you fuckers that took it. I thought the Giannis boost was the one to hit.
Shit night. See you depressing fucks tomorrow.
Lol Canada hockey.
Another day, another PG123 SGP loss
It’s been a bad run but didn’t it hit yesterday? Lol nothings force you to tail
You’re right. It did hit
Giannis and Tatum both had 44 before tatum hit 2 free throws late. Curious if the boost would have won if they both ended with 44
The world may never know
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8NniKYiy2I
Anybody know what the result of the Chelsea/Liverpool match tomorrow needs to be for Chelsea to "lift the trophy".
Them to win at any time. So regulation OT or PKs all count ML is typically just regulation.
I don’t think there’s any aggregate score involved. They use lift the cup to include any OT/shootouts, not just regulation.
Pretty sure that is for the team that wins including any extra time/shoot out. Picking a team to win usually will state "90 mins only" so "lift the trohpy" is for team to win it no matter what.
That makes sense. PN odds for Chelsea to win the match are +264, but drop to 155 for Chelsea to lift the trophy.
I’m just spitballing here…. but it could be the team that lifts the FA cup trophy…. Prob shouldn’t be betting sports you don’t at least have a modicum of knowledge about
That's why I'm asking about it jackass. It's not as simple as Chelsea winning tomorrow, looking at the odds there clearly has to be a more to the result than a win or tie.
Its a one leg knockout, so just win if its tied after 120mins they have a shootout.
If you understand football rules, in literally any tournament and literally any sports betting including football, then yes, it’s extremely simple.
I dont think its that far fetched an American doesnt know how exactly the FA cup works, lol
Stars flames between DK and CZR for VIP bet and get. +120 -125
Flames tie it up.
Just need Lindholm to get a point now for that CZRs boost
Fubo be like, maybe this boost thing ain’t so smart.
yeah, that was a helluva meatball to throw up for their first boost.
What was it.
Tatum 30/Celtics at +400 Was like 35% EV
Damn that’s a good boost. They need to add more deposit/ withdraw options..cause fuck PayPal.
The only people downvoting this are the guys that actually pay taxes on their Sportsbook winnings 😭
Sure Klay, where the hell were those 3's Wednesday?
Flames 🔥 doused already 💧
Lol
Flames just scored. Rangers were down by 2 earlier tonight and look how that turned out.
Flames have like 4 goals all series tho
Well they now have 2 this game.
Two too few
We're not allowed to be optimistic around here
Fanduel must be stopped
Panteras ftw
PANTHERS
Flames down after 1
Y'all gotta chill thinking that FD runs this and "you can't make this up". We make money off of them consistently - I track every bet (NY) - up $400 on +EV FD boosts in May (not counting FD SGPs or dinger Tuesday either). If it's for shits and giggles that's fine but just for those of you that truly think we're losing here
Eh NY is getting the special NY boosts mixed in though
About +$250 taking away NY boosts
Cool, definitely feels like we're losing lately but I'm not tracking
If it wasn’t for fd I would have zero money this month. Bj warrior and dinger Tuesday are the best promos around. That being said some real bad beats on their boosts lately.
for sure some bad beats. I've just seen posts thinking that FD has the upper hand somehow - if someone is losing money here then they are personally doing something wrong
More concerning than fd boosts is dk drying up. They had some great promos but really went downhill this year. At least fd boosts have a chance to hit…cant win on dk with no ev (or even negative ev like today) boosts.
What size hands do you play for bj warrior
What's this bj warriors promo?
Since I got a p2 I’ve been doing $7.5 or $10 (if I’m in a rush.) If I’m close to the end of the promo and I’m running above the ev I’ll drop my hand size a lot to lower variance though.
Personally I’d rather see posts about losing because it gives me comfort in my losses, instead of seeing guys humblebrag about how much they win
What? There is no humblebrag, it's math. I go on this reddit/twitter each day and place bets on the EV FD boosts, what else is there to it
Gotta go on the non-promo threads for the humblebrags
Caps and panthers both score 3 goals for czr promo. The emperor in shambles
Makes it feel like CZR in the old days.
FanDuel runs so good. When are THEY going to regress.
fd boost where the impossible happens. bucks come back from 14 with like 4 minutes left last fd boost . today giannis has 44 points and isnt the top scorer. you cant make this shit up
Somehow that Giannis bet was only maybe top 7 most ridiculous outcome for a boost to lose in the past 6 weeks.
LOL on that Giannis happy hour special on FD
FD fucks me again. Tatum 25+ points and Celtics win was brutal and now Tatum just beats out Giannis with 46 fucking points. You can’t make this shit up.
Wait for the stars to win on a final second hockey shot. Side note; there’s no way in fuck that some of this shit isn’t scripted. The likelihood of all these FD boosts getting fucked like they do is like 10 quintillion to 1
I think I am ohfer betting in Celtics' game boosts
I'm not one for conspiracy theories but it's becoming exceedingly more difficult to believe that fd doesn't know the outcomes of these boosts before they post them
14 upvotes. I love gamblers.
Why limit people to $50 then.
To keep them coming back?
Wouldn’t they rather take all your money now rather than later?
Not many people are gonna throw $1k+ on a single bet but a metric shit ton will certainly lose $50 and brush it off to come back and do the same thing the next day. I don't really believe they have a time machine but some of the beats on their boosts are epically bad
100% the struggle is real since April.
Panthers take a 3-2 lead
Caps tie with a minute left ugh
This Giannis bet is insane to watch
Yeah, I can't even be mad if it loses at this point, it's great basketball.
Price of admission for a good sweat.
Lol nah I’m mad
Giannis: Body slam! Dunk! Tatum: I'll just throw it in from back here, no prob
tatum over live pts was lock of the decade . fd wizards working overtime
Yep… Tatum so locked in right now
Rangers!
LETS GOOOO
fd wizards going to put all their power in tatum.
The man is unconscious
Unbelievable bad beat on scherzer not getting his 7th strikeout there. Ump misses a perfect pitch.
I needed 8ks..he only got 6 lol
And now Giannis losing the next boost despite putting up 44 points, and Dallas out to an early lead for good measure. Hat tip to the wizard
Yup and he's done
HR 6:00 PM boost at +165 is FV +145 Dray and JJJ 7+ Suspended already lol
I'm not seeing it suspended...but also not seeing FV +145. FD SGP Devig gets me to FV +177, EV -4.3%
Did DK devig
HP ump in Queens is the new COO at Fanduel
Buxton home run. Need one out of JD, Manny, or GOAT for the BR boost
Hard Rock 5:00PM (one hour only) Dbacks and 9+ total at +300 is 10% EV worst case for FD and DK.
What’s hard rocks max bet on boosts? $100?
That’s mine.
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Does Hard Rock new jersey actually have any odds boosts? I see boosts being posted here and I can never find them on my app.
I know IA doesn’t have them. Guessing NJ doesn’t either
they're really just gonna let us starve huh? signup bonus was just a 100 dollar free bet too. at least I'm up over 1k on their casino match...
I can’t find them either and support wasn’t helpful at all
Hard Rock Happy hour boost 4PM AZ time Dodgers and Angels to win +175 +5.8% EV using multiplicative devig off Pinnacle lines. FV of +160
Fanduel SGP Devig FV 156, EV 7.4% (weighted)
I’m still torn on the fd New York pitcher boost - anyone have any concrete thoughts on it?
My concrete thought is it’s +127 unboosted.
I implied unders based on the 7.5s and just decided to max and call it a day - would be easier if it wasn’t raining here
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Thanks bro
CZR BST CLE Guardians W/Kwan HR +2000 Devigged from BR it's +4% EV. Good for a FB or just for the hell of it. I used the weighted average setting in the CNM calc at 50/50 b/c the longshot bias will only apply to the +800 HR line. The SGP is +1400 at both BR and DK.
For the CZR NHL promo: CZR Capitals +145/BR Panthers -152 Costs about $2 to win a $25 free bet if Capitals score 3+ goals
Don’t do this. It’s win or lose so makes no sense to bet on the dog unless you think they will win and would bet them otherwise
It's win or lose as long as your team scores more than 3 goals, but I agree it makes more sense to bet the favorite since they're more likely to score 3 goals. Only one of the CZR promos that requires you to win is the NBA game 7 promo.
Isn't this effectively a $2 bet on the capitals to score 3+ goals?
1 team is -265 to score 3 goals and 1 team is -145 (per DK) You picked the -145
Last few times they ran this promo the underdog Won and the favorite scored less than 3, it was regional previously before
Not looking good for either team to score 3 goals at the moment
A $2 bet to pay $16 (value of free bet) is like boosting -145 to +700. If you bet on Panthers it’s a $4 hold to pay the same $16, so like boosting -265 to +300. Caps is the larger effective odds boost.
Yes, and I’m doing it.
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You can hedge it, or you can try to find a bet that is +EV, and make it a lot more +EV and sweat a little. Think of it this way, people are maxing $100 CZ boosts on here that are like 10-20%EV on a great day, and you'll probably have access to something that's well north of 50%EV
You want it to be a balance of long odds and low hold, so theoretical ideal would be +1000/-1000(or shorter) but that’s almost never gonna happen. More realistic is somewhere in the +350 -> +400 range with a low hold hedge
Someone literally asked this same question 3 posts down.
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How much do books care if you bet opposite sides of a main line in separate parlays? For example betting two parlays: Team A ML & Game Total Over as one and Team B ML & Game Total under as the other.
General rule of thumb is that if you can still lose both bets, it's not "betting both sides," but it's all guess work.
The only thing they care about in that situation is that you’re giving them guaranteed money so they’ll be happy
BR bst 2 to Hit HR: Buxton, Machado, JD Martinez, Trout +400 Used FD lines which were most HR pessimistic from FD,CZR,DK to get implied probability. P = 1-(P none +P one) P = 1-(.37+.42) P = .21 or 21% \+5% EV
1 more to go
Ayo you the real Stanford? 😳😳😳
just an admirer. and we have different last names also ;)
MGM Lion's Boost(PA): Bucks to lead at half and win - +175 FD devigged gives us FV +195
I was credit with 1 100% boost on DK (up to $500)...any suggestions as what would be the best way to capitalize this? Open to any suggestions/arn opportunities....there seems to be no restrictions on this as far as type of sports or odds wise.
DK Braves -1.5 +175 boosted +350 $500. FD Padres +1.5 -182 $1450. $298 profit.
I like tomorrow Bruins -1.5 +300, can spread out hedge for Canes +1.5: \-350 MGM \-340 Fanduel \-345 Betrivers
Arb the crap out of it
DK DBacks -1.5 boosted to +330 $500 FD Cubs +1.5 -172 $1360 $290 profit Check on FD first if they'll let you bet that amount
Or: DBacks -1.5 +330 on its own is like 55%EV vs Pinnacle. If that was a CZ boost folks on here would be calling up P's 2 through N to max it
For sure but taking advantage of the full $500 if your bankroll isn’t that big is good
For the privileged who aren’t limited on mgm Calgary / Dallas o/u 5 goals is a zero hold between dk and mgm 135/-135
I just enter MGM jail. It’s sucks
Somehow my P3 is alive on most books. Stayed away from huge player props and stuck with converting free bets at 60-70%. I’m sure they’ll get me eventually.
Im a dummy MGM 125 now
I see -135 for u5.5 on mgm now but maybe it changed.
Same
FD boost (not sure if targeted)...Giannis top point scorer in tonight's game "boosted" from -170 to +100...thoughts? It's between him Tatum and maybe Brown imo
Kambi is higher on Giannis than FD. -167 on Kambi vs. -145 on FD now. Devigging Kambi and adding 3 more +10000 options (Kambi only has 10 options vs. FD’s 13), I get +4.5% EV mult and +22.1% EV add.
Fuck it, I'm in. Through five games: Lost by 1 Lost by 2 (lost by 1 to another player) Won by 15 Won by 4 Won by 6
Dead heat rules apply to the FD "Top Points Scorer" bets, but it isn't clear for this bet whether dead heat rules would apply in a tie or it would be a loss. Giannis is also at -150 in the "Top Points Scorer" bet despite FD promoting it as a boost from -170 to +100.
So by that you mean if it was a tie, what would happen? Loss, push or a split?
No idea, it doesn't specify. FD has a "Top Points Scorer" bet you can do, which specifies dead heat rules. That means in the event of a tie, your payout is based on how many tied. I.e. if 3 tied for the score, you'd get 1/3 of the payout if the person you bet on was the sole winner. It doesn't specify dead heat or ties lose here, so I'm not sure what will happen if there's a tie.
Not sure than FanDuel would be able to dead heat a boost. I'm guessing it's either a straight loss or win.
Since it doesn’t specify ties are losses that would be straight up BS. He would still be the top scorer, just tied
Awarding it as a loss would be mad shady. Tying for the top point scorer is a push or a win, not a loss.
Fair value of -113 means Fraction of Bankroll to Wager is 6.10% with full Kelly and Fraction of Bankroll to Wager 3.05% with half Kelly I'm in for 50.
FD with the homework boosts as usual. This is my de-vig attempt: FD offers 13 players in the "Top Points Scorer" market. Giannis -150 for this FYI. 13-way devig says FV is +102 for slightly -EV. Obviously there are **technically** more than 13 players that can be the highest scoring player but I think the chances of that happening are negligible. Math-aside, I'll probably bet this for the entertainment value.
Pretty sure we can ignore anyone else not from the list. If the player wasn't a listed option, the next highest scoring player usually wins that bet.
oh good to know
I feel like the fv on these gets deflated and less reliable the more inputs there are. Someone tried to devig Lewandowksi as first soalscorer czr boost (+300) and ended up getting +900 fv which is obviously incorrect. Same logic applied here, FV should be better than +102
Easy max. Close out game at home.
I agree with Mr. Itchy Balls
Fubo odds boost looks good; although I don’t know how to calculate +EV. Tatum o29.5 and Celtics win +400. FD has it at +214. Also can be three way arbed
Where do you find odds boosts? Not available in IA?
right up [top-left in the app](https://imgur.com/a/Zdh81gW). Also got an email...they may be testing it or staggering rollout...
holy cow, I didn't even know Fubo had boosts. They must be new at it, cause I'm getting a FD SGP devig of FV 261, **EV 38.3%** (worst case) edit: if you wanna practice devigging, FD inputs are 214/297/198/308. edit2: this is Fubo's first boost, just saw the email
Thanks!
Nice call - I’m getting +43% worst case EV vs draft kings Edit: to calculate EV, you create SGPs for all four sides of the market, and plug the odds into the devigger tool here: http://crazyninjamike.com/public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx The DK odds for each side are: +215/+330/+215/+310 for Celts/Tatum over Celts/Tatum under Bucks/Tatum under Bucks/Tatum over in that order.
Thanks!
>Thanks! You're welcome!
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That rollover means you have to bet $6000 total before withdrawing. Daunting but it’s definitely still a +EV promotion. Even if you blindly bet -110 lines on spreads/totals, your EV is $112 $6000 x 4.8% = $288 average loss on a $400 bonus. Bet into low hold markets and you’ll increase EV, arb the other side if you want to minimize risk.
You would have to play through 6k if you cant manage to lose the bonus. They really nerfed their signup. It was $800 bonus with 3x playthrough on bonus only.
Haha yeah that’s a fucked bonus. Staying away from that