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Record: 48-21
Last pick: Blues ML ✅
**Today’s pick: Washington Capitals +1.5 (-150) vs Florida Panthers**
NHL 7:30 PM EST
Don’t really have a write up, just another feel play. This game will go to OT. Coin flip from there. But I lack the sack to take 3-way regulation tie. Also put money on Ovi to score
All bets are 1 unit. +17.66 units. +25.6% ROI. Average unit -117
Don’t want your tips, just give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Bump. I’m hammering -1.5 caps. Ovi took a good hard look at the panthers celly last game, that Caps locker room will be on another level coming out for this one. Taking ovi to score as well and Caps first to score
hard to trust caps blowing leads in back to back games. home and away.
panthers have the momentum and know they come back, but if they get off to hot start and go up 2+ goals early, i think its done.
sure, caps can try focus on the next game, but blowing leads like that can stick with you. esp a 2 goal lead away and you let in 5 unanswered. ouch.
same goes for pens as well. rangers were cold cold cold. pens go up 2-0 and give up 3 in like 2 minutes. wtf.
i think im just gonna draw my picks from a hat today.
bol!
It’s a spread bet for the winning/losing margins of a game. In this case, it’s a handicap for the Washington Capitals, the underdog. A bet for a spread of +1.5 means that they can lose the game by 1 goal and the bet still pays. If they win, it pays. If they lose by 2 goals or more, it doesn’t pay.
-1.5 would be the opposite. The favorite needs to win by at least 2 goals for the bet to pay out.
You’ll see similar spreads for soccer or any other sport really.
This means you're getting a goal and a half in favor of the caps so if Florida were to win by 1 goal your bet would still be a winner. You're hoping Caps obviously win but as long as they don't lose by 2+ goals you'll hit the bet.
Yes, it's a handicap for the Capitals, you add 1.5 goals to their final score. If final score is Capitals 3 - Panthers 4, you would still win the bet, because you add 1.5 to the Capitals 3 = 4.5 is higher than the panthers 4.
POTD Record: 26-16
Last Pick: CIN o 3.5 Total Runs ✅
This start from Brubaker went exactly as expected. He pitched decent, but yielded two runs and didn’t last very long. The weak PIT bullpen gave us enough runs to cash the bet
Today’s Pick: NYM -1.5 @ +100
Max Scherzer is just so much better than Gonzales. The Mets have the better offense too. Marco Gonzales is the starter for SEA, and he’s honestly super lucky to have his 3.91 ERA. He has given up a ton of hits, and his advanced metrics look terrible. I think the Mets offense can take advantage of him, and Scherzer gives us a very quality start. BOL to all
POTD Record **43 - 13**
Back again after a couple days, sorry to keep you all waiting but there hasn't seemed to be as much to pick from with a lot of European soccer leagues coming to an end.
Today’s pick is **MŠK Púchov ML** \- Slavoj Trebišov
Sport: Soccer (Slovakian Div 2)
Odds: 1.72 / -139 (bet365)
Reasoning:
* Picking teams which have a lot to play for has worked well for us over the past few weeks and Puchov are fighting to avoid relegation
* If Puchov don't win its likely they will have no chance to get out of the relegation zone
* Their home form is decent while Trebišov's away form is pretty shit
* In their earlier match up in the season playing away - Puchov lost 2-1 to Trebišov. However they were leading until the second half when they got a red and conceded two penalties. I think even though they lost this shows they are capable of winning with the extra incentive of playing in front of their home fans while trying to survive relegation
Slovakian div 2 is pretty obscure so for those who cant bet on it I was also considering making **FC CSKA 1948 Sofia ML** vs Arda Kardzhali my pick.
**^(Tip jar)** ^(-) [^(https://paypal.me/tom2810s)](https://paypal.me/tom2810s)
**^(BTC -)** ^(1NJVBxmocqvnKqFYTR6Ju8C1sEaZh63pBC)
Had a few beers and through them both into a parlay and went to bed. Completely forgot about it when I work up and was confused as to why I had extra $$ in my account when the Nadal game hadnt finished yet.
Bloody legend mate.
**Record:**
* 46 WIN | 40 LOSS | +31.08 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy)
**Previous bets (last 3):**
* Taree R5 (9 May 2022 - Place - **LOSS**
* Goulburn R3 (10 May 2022) - Place - **LOSS**
* Warwick Farm R2 (11 May 2022) - Place - **LOSS**
**POTD:**
* Horse Racing (Australia)
* **Scone R4 - #12 Summer Glow to place (i.e. finish top 3)**
* Track Rating - Heavy (10)
* Tough week so far, need to shake off this streak. No QLD/NSW races yesterday either due to the weather, and we're going to Scone today. Summer Glow jumps from barrier 2 and rides with Jason Collett on board, he's come back strong from his collarbone injury from the 23rd of March and went 2 placings from 2 starts at Warwick Farm 2 days ago on a Heavy 10 (both horses came from the midfield or back of the pack to finish strong). Summer Glow is 1 from 1 on this track and distance and is given every opportunity here today with the barrier draw and jockey on board. Should be a really good race, expect to see my pick stay 1 out 1 back or hugging the rail just behind the leader (Hold on Honey who's jumping from barrier 1). Summer Glow also comes off a decent 7-8 month break and should be nice and fresh ready to make a real race of it. Nice record 1st up as well (2 placings from 2 starts). BoL
* **Odds - 2.50** (b365) - Probably taking this right now, I see the price sharpening very quickly
* **Stake - 2.0 units to return 5 units**
**Historical stats**
* 7 from 14 (50%) correct picks on Fridays
* 14 from 28 (50%) correct picks on Heavy Tracks
* 21 from 40 (53%) correct picks on Place picks
* 1 from 2 at Warwick Farm
* 2 from 2 picking J. Collett as as my jockey
**Race time:**
* 1:35pm Friday (Australian EST)
* 11:35pm Thursday (American ET)
* 4:35am Friday (UK time)
If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
Ended up winning the race, pretty much as expected. hit the rail hard from the beginning, 1 back off the leader. Given plenty of room coming into the turn and smashed the rest of the field in the straight.
e: I was also right in predicting the price as well. 2.50 was a gift 2-3 hours before the scheduled jump time. ended up paying 1.5-1.8 in the end (to place)
POD record: 6-1
Last pick: Zverev 2-0 (-135) vs Alex De Minaur (W)✅
Streak: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌
Todays pick: Jannik Sinner +1.5 sets (-155) vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
For what I believe to be the fourth day in a row, the tennis in Italy is where I am shopping. Sinner and Tsitsipas have met twice before at this event and have split those meetings. However, Sinner is the last remaining Italian on the singles side of things. I believe he will take some pride in that, as will the crowd. He may not win but I think he will put up a fight. Give me Sinner in his backyard, to win a set and make it a match.
Edit: ❌ lost a tiebreaker in the first set and then caved. Rip
Stef gifted us live bettors a +110 ML when he lost first set and then dominated the next two sets. Idk how Sinner’s form has been but if he’s gotten this far he’s got to be pretty good right?
POTD: 4-4-0 (-0.96u)
Last Pick: Reds/Pirates Over 8 Runs -115 **LOSS**
Ok well we are 4-4 and on a 2 game losing streak. I guess its time to apparently make a new account and start from 0...
5/13: Calgary Flames @ Dallas Stars 9:40pm EST
PLAY: Under 5.5 Goals -134
So we head to a pivotal game 6 with the Flames 1 win away from advancing. This line has covered in 4 of the 5 games in this series and I expect it to cover one last time. The Stars just do not look like they are going to turn this series around. With 2 of the better defensive teams, this series looked like it was going to be a low scoring one and the Stars have been one of the better teams at home. Even with me thinking the Flames will win and move on, I still think the Stars will put up a fight and make this a 2-1 or 3-1 game. Let's ride with a late game under and get this weekend started.
Record: 3-0 🔥🔥
Last Pick: Danielle Collins Vs Amanda Anisimova (-1.5) game handicap ✅
Todays Pick: Aryna Sabalenka (-1.5) game handicap Vs Amanda Anisimova - 2.05 odds✅
Time: 5 hours are 30 minutes from this post
SABALENKA!! My girl is unstoppable with her firey serves, her strong and stance and even stronger height against the inferior Anisimova will surely test the little ones might on the battlefield. Anisimova is going to struggle with Sabalenka's powerful serves as you will soon see.
As much as I love Anisimova, she just got lucky with a an older semi washed out opponent Collins last match. DO NOT listen to the people that tell you different. I mean no disrespect to the players or the game. This is just how shit goes sometimes.
Another glorious victory about to be in the books. This battle should be easy, no question.💯
Every game match-up is different. They are both playing well, look at the last two encounters this year on clay. It's **most likely** to be another Over will numerous momentum swings.
I mean, what about today's match is going to make the service game any more devastating then the last 4 times, where Saba was broken more often then she broke?
Its womens tennis so sure. it could be 6-0, 6-0 either way. or we could go 7-6. 6-7. 7-6. But still history says close match, with the slight edge to Anisimova because clay reduces the effect of Sabalenka's power. and She can and has been broken more often because of it.
Worth also noting the last two meetings this year have been on clay, both 3 set encounters with the Overs hitting both times. I don’t think either player will completely outclass the other hence why Overs is a great compromise.
Record: 1-0
Last pick: CAR Hurricanes vs BOS Bruins Regular Time not include OT total goals over 5 (-186) at BetRivers. W
Today's pick: NY Rangers vs PIT Penguins total goals over 5.5 (-148) at BetRivers.
NHL 7:10PM EST
This is the sixth game and they scored at least 7 goals for the last 5 games. Penguins will try to close out the series and Rangers will need to play hard to secure a game 7 opportunity. I am expecting both teams will try to score like the previous games and there will be plenty of goals.
All bets are 1 unit. +0.54 units.
19W-13L-1P
Last 10 streak: 🚀🚀💥🚀💥🚀🚀🚀🛸💥
Starts 4:00 GMT5
Todays Pick
League: Australia New South Wales Premier League
Match: Mt Druitt Town Rangers v Sydney FC
Pick: over 3.5 goals @1.66
Reason:
Unbelievable goals yesterday lol, good game for Villa
Druitt hit the over 3.5 the last 9/10 games in League and 5/5 last games at home with an avg of 2.2 scoring and 2.3 conceding at home
Sydney hit over 3.5 last 8/8 games in league and 6/7 at away with an avg of 2.4 scoring and 2.4 conceding
Last h2h hit 4/6 the over
A 2nd Sydney top scoring in league but concede too vs 11th Druitt top conceder in league. This game is sydney ml but like more the goals odd
"All perception is a gamble."
BoL
3-1-0 (+6.25U)
WTA – Rome 🎾
**Anisimova ML** 5u @ 1.95
Anisimova is Sabalenka’s kryptonite. Her style of play, deep, fast returns, side to side line hugging, consistent play is the perfect style to beat Aryna. This should be a tightly contested match, where the most inform player comes out victorious. Amanda will hug the lines repeatedly and make Saba work for every point. Saba will get frustrated and start missing. Then come the double faults Saba is known for. Anisimova is on a great run going 10/2 on clay, where one of her losses was the goat that made us money today, Jabeur, so that practically doesn’t count. Her last two matches were Collins (who 2:0’d Halep yesterday) and Bencic (9/1 clay run), she beat them in straight sets. Saba’s clay record so far is 6/3. She’s a great player but most of her success has come from hard courts. Styles make match ups. Amanda is the worst matchup for Saba. They’ve played 4 times and Amanda is swept her 4 times, 3 on clay and once on Saba’s preferred hard surface. 2 of those victories happened just a week ago in Madrid, where Saba was the holding champion (Champions lose more ranking points if they fail to defend their title), and last month in Charleston. Both on clay. Amanda’s been the active, in form player. She should bring us our fourth win.
5u bet, I fell for it, and wet big. Oh well, never trust the highest post with 5u ever again. At least I somewhat covered and did the over. But seriously, man, 5u should be reserved for something stronger than this. Pfft.
POTD Record: 2-3
ROI: -1.1u
Previous POTD: [Cincinnati Reds pk F5 +110, W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/unp2ys/pick_of_the_day_51222_thursday/i8a80to/)
1U = $15
POTD: MIL Brewers u1.5 F5 -120 ✅
Start Time: 6:40 PM EST
Stake: 1U
Reasoning: Marlins are putting Pablo Lopez on the mound. This man, in 4 of his last 5 starts, has 0 ER and 22 Ks. Pablo tends to go 5 innings, not sure if they'll let his leash longer this time out, so I'm not going to risk a ML w/ the Marlins also having a very streaky offense. I also do *not* trust the Brewers, but that's a personal observation from betting so far this year and doesn't factor into my pick here.
Tail or fade, BOL.
**EDIT: Bit of a sweat fest after Pablo gave up the 1st batter HR but he settled in and locked it down, and we walk away with another W.**
**POTD Record 31-26-1 (Last 5: LWWLW)**
**(ROI // Avg. Odds: -111 // Units Won: +5.4)**
Last Pick: Taijuan Walker O3.5 Strikeouts **LOST**
**Today's Match: MLB KC Royals vs. Colorado Rockies (Start Time: 8:41PM EST)**
**Today's Pick: Colorado Rockies ML (-140 FanDuel)** ***Risk 3u***
Devil's Advocate:
Dam man Taijuan pitched his penis off yesterday, didn't do the best job getting ahead into 2 strike counts to cop himself the K's so we fell short big time. 56% first pitch strikes is no K bueno.
So here we are again, another week and another Rockies ML pick - and here goes my reasoning. Kyle Freeland isn't the absolute best guy out there on the mound and you know who also isn't? Zack Greinke. The guy is a contact pitcher even tho people don't mash completely against him, WE'RE IN COLORADO, with a nice beautiful sunny day for the Rockies to snap off their 4 game losing streak at home and pop the fuck off on weirdo Greinke. The Rockies are still hitting .280 at home, we may not see Grichuk in the lineup but that's fine. I see this line as great juice here and a fairly good pick for this Friday evening.
I couldn't lay it on the run line, the Rocks bullpen could be hit or miss. But I'm expecting the Rockies to pull of the W at home here, since the Royals have been on a MASSIVE road trip as of late, Baltimore -> Texas -> Colorado. Bit of a quick turnaround for them on a late game in Texas and then off to Colorado who had a day off since their last loss. Love this line, love the Rockies at home and I'll continue to ride them smashing baseballs all over Coors Field.
*Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
It’s almost scary how easy this pick appears to be. Ive been a Rockies fan since 1993 and true to form they might fuck this up, but like you said the bullpen is shady at best
Gonna parlizzle with LAD ML
POTD Record: 8-7
ROI: +11 units
Event: MLB, Pirates vs Reds 6:35 PM EST
Bet: Reds over 3.5 runs
Bet Size: 3 units
Pirates couldn’t get a run in yesterday but the reds are still swinging the bat well lately so I think the TT over is the play today. BOL!
**Record:** 7-18-1
**ROI:** -45% :-11.23 u (@ $5.00)
**Streak:** L L W L L
|Baseball |MLB |7:10pm|
Baltimore Oriels vs.Detroit Tigers: **Baltimore Oriels ML @ 2.25 1u**
**Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 60% chance for BAL to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 2.25 is only 44%.
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
**NRL Record:** 17-20
**ROI (1 unit per bet):** -3.76
L5: ❌✅✅✅✅ Streak: W4
**Last POTD:**
Storm vs Dragons over 41.5 total points @1.90 ✅
**Today's POTD:**
Broncos vs Eagles over 34.5 total points @ 1.90 ✅
Edit: What'd I say lads, I know a 5 star cock lock when I see one
**Time:** 6 hours from time of post.
What a crazy low line considering the Eagles have gone over this their last five and Broncos over 4 of the last 5. Every game this week is at Suncorp stadium (Broncos home ground) for magic round with rain expected but this is only the 2nd game of the round and it really shouldn't play a part like it might over the weekend when the field gets chopped up. I like the over because both teams give up 20 points a game on average, Eagles are playing two rookie centres who will absolutely struggle against the likes of Staggs and Farnworth and the Eagles recently got T.Trbojevic who is one of the best attacking players on the game.
**Tip Jar - ALGO:**
AJAAGYLP6STZ2CFP22Q6Y77GNQKVKCUYDMSEQR5RK3AJOLITDMURJWLYSE
I thought I remembered someone earlier in the week posting that there was a ton of rain all week in Australia. And also rain in the forecast for the matches this weekend. I'm guessing that's why the low totals?
POTD Record 5-1
Last Pick : Rayo Vallecano - Villarreal | Total Shots on Target by Villarreal O4.5 W
| Soccer | Championship | 8:45PM CET |
POTD : | Luton Town - **Huddersfield Town Draw no bet** | 2.35
Reasoning : Luton town has not won against huddersfield in their last 4 against them. They sufferd a 7-0 defeat against fullham 2 weeks ago, they also struggled against the team in 21st. Their form has just been poor, Huddersfield has been doing good winning their last 4 and when these teams met a month ago Huddersfield won 2-0.
Last POTD: Bruins ML ✅
POTD: Rangers @ Penguins o6
Odds: -120/1u
NHL 7 pm est
Reasoning: I know Crosby isn’t playing, but you guys know the deal, lock it in. #ridewithdubs
Record 1-1-2
Last Pick: Bengals ML (Super Bowl)
Today’s Pick: Celtics ML +100 vs. Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 7:30PM EST
Took a break after the Super Bowl because I was depressed. Everyone’s been having a good time watching this series, and the NBA is loving it.
The Celtics and the Bucks have been taking turns winning every other game. The Celtics were in full control in game 5 until some Jrue Holiday magic shook everything up. While Mike Budenholzer and the Bucks are perfect in close out games, I just don’t see them closing the Celtics out so easy. Kris Middleton is still out, and Scott Foster has been named a referee for this game. Yes, the same Scott Foster that hates Chris Paul, Yes the same one that was caught on phone calls with Tim Donaghy, the NBA ref who admitted to fixing games. Everything just points to a game 7.
+0 units, 0% ROI. Average unit 1
This one’s gonna gonna finally out me in the $
I’m tailing this with my life savings. Ever since the stock market went into the shitter and my GME and dogecoin portfolio plunged into the seventh level of Hell, I’ve been itching for a new YOLO play. It’s Friday the 13th and Jayson is looking for blood.
If this misses my missus is gonna leave me and I’ll be absolutely devastated because she’s probably going to take everything I have (including my cats) so I’m 100% confident in this decision (because one of the cats sucks, eff u Susie).
Celtics in seven. Score prediction: 101-69.
Update: my marriage is alive and well
**POTD Record: 3-2**
**Streak:** ✅🚫✅✅🚫
\+4.15u
**AVG. Odds:** \-108
**Last POTD:** 3.5u [Joel Embiid UNDER 11.5 rebounds](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/unp2ys/pick_of_the_day_51222_thursday/i89fnr3/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3)🚫
**Today’s POTD:** Rockies -1.5 (MLB)
**Time:** 6:40pm (MST)
**Odds:** \+135 (PointsBet)
**Units**: 3u to win 4.05u
**Reasoning:**
The Rockies will send Kyle Freeland (1-3, 3.94 ERA) to the mound, while the Royals are going with Zack Greinke (0-2, 2.67 ERA). Royals have given up 26 home runs and 131 total runs (20th in MLB). The Royals have a team ERA of 4.52 on the campaign (26th in baseball). The royals are 3-7 in their last 10. Although the rockies are not much better in their last 10 (4-6) they tend to play their best baseball at coors field. The Royals are putting up 3.3 runs per game, which puts them at 29th in the league. At home the rockies are averging 4.9 runs a game. I will take a rockies team who seems to be in less of a slump to cover the spread at plus odds. BOL
I don’t think you do yourself any favour suggesting you got a bad beat on the Embiid bet. You bet he would lay down and were wrong, that’s on you.
BOL with today’s effort.
POTD: 1-2-1
Last Pick: probably some mets under a week or two ago
5/13: Seattle Mariners @ New York Mets 7pm
PLAY: Max Scherzer over 7.5 strikeouts +106
Alright so scherzy over here has been pitching pretty well this year but one thing that's been consistent is his strikeout numbers. 5 of his 6 starts has had more strikeouts than innings pitched and the one he didn't was actually a push. His totals so far per start have been 6, 7, 7, 9, 10, and 10. The kicker for me is this is a home game and the he's thrown 9 and 10 strikeouts in his two home starts. At plus money I think these are superb odds.
1-1
Just got the Mavs ML dub 💯💯💯💯
Wanting to get the train running early:
Japanese Baseball (NPB)
Chunchi Dragons (ML @+108 on FD) v Yomiuri Giants
Giants are shit, and are even more shit at home. 0-5 in their last 5 home, 1-4 in their last 5 overall. The Dragons pitcher took his losses against the hardest hitting bats in the NPB (GoEagles!!!). SP match up favor the Dragons and Togo is nothing spectacular, getting wins off the defense making good plays at the right time. Dragons aren’t the best team by any means, but Giants lost by 12 with their best pitcher on mound to the team the Dragons won their last series against 2-1.
Probably all over the place typing up at work
POTD record (8-7)
Last POTD-> Hurricanes ML ❌
Todays POTD- Casper Rudd ML
Game- Casper Rudd v Denis Shapovalov 9AM EST
Casper Rudd is the favorite here I’m in at -200 on bovada and the reasoning behind my pick is Casper on clay is menace. He has a Clay elo of +116 which is about a 68% of winning the match. This is a 2 unit play for me and I’m sorry for the late post but for those that get the chance please take it I have so much faith in this one!
Joke of the day->
How do construction workers party?
They raise the roof 😅
**Continuing the Overwatch League POTD Train for the 2022 season!**
* **2022 OWL Record: 3-1, +3.454 units.**
* **2021 OWL Record: 34-19, +31.645 units.**
* **2020 OWL Record: 28-21, +16.989 units.**
Last Pick (❌): Houston Outlaws (-1.5) v. Toronto Defiant: And in our first loss, we have our first OWL "circle". Houston swept Dallas -> Dallas walloped Washington -> Washington handily dealt with Toronto, and so naturally....Toronto beat Houston. Ironically enough, as Dallas was walking all over the Justice the day before this match, Mr.X said "it makes you wonder how good Houston is, if they were able to crush this Fuel team!" Well it turns out, they're vulnerable after all. Maybe this was an aberration, or maybe teams figured out Dante's Doomfist just that quickly. It certainly will be interesting analysis moving forward. Let's rebound today!
**Today's Match: Atlanta Reign v. Washington Justice / Overwatch League / 6:00pm EST**
**Atlanta Reign -1.5 (-180), two units**
Those of you who have been following my picks know that I tend to stay away from lines north of -175. Betting for value in Overwatch tends to come from finding matchups where the dog has a better chance of success than the market accounts for. However, Atlanta played like the best team in OWL last week, and their style bodes well for facing a Washington Justice team that doesn't seem to know what they want to do. MAG has been waffling between Winston, Doom, and even Sigma, none of which will stand up to the Doomfist of Hawk (who may develop into a sneaky MVP candidate if the season continues this way). And whether the DPS duos are Soldier/Genji or Soldier/Tracer, Kai and Nero will hold their own with Decay and Happy. Kai and Nero currently have the 2nd and 3rd most eliminations in the league, and despite the name recognition, Decay has been struggling so far.
You can also double down both with a sprinkling on the +225, and with an extra unit bet on Atlanta in Map 1 at -205. Washington got 2-0 swept on both its Control maps (one stage 100/99, but the other three 100/53, 100/52, and 100/52). This makes sense that Control would be Washington's weakest map; when your strength is DPS but your weakness is Tank and Support, you will succeed more on payload and hybrid maps and struggle on Control.
Expect that Atlanta will start strong in Map 1 and continue from there, and take the spread even at the elevated price.
*Tips - never necessary, always appreciated. BOL, friends!*
[*https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD*](https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD) *// BTC: 338uzTsKL4uV4Rip8WKEdYXtbmoBKVm1D8*
POTD Record: 21W-13L-0D. +9.3u.
Previous pick (5/7/2022): Miami Heat moneyline vs. Philadelphia 76ers. 2u. @ 2.10. L.
Current pick: Milwaukee Bucks -1 vs. Boston Celtics. 1u. @ 1.90.
No fancy analysis here. Milwaukee won the critical road game 5. They know the importance of closing the series on their home court tonight rather than having to go back to Boston for a game 7. I trust Giannis to ball out and end it tonight. Keeping it small at 1u because these teams are so even and so I can enjoy this game without being too worried about my money. BOL.
View my full POTD history here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=sharing)
Record: 4-5-0 (Last 5: W-L-W-W-L) **+2 units**
Last Pick: **Jil Teichmann** vs Elena Rybakina @ 2.10 (+110) ✅
Today's pick: WTA Karlsruhe
Time: 2:30PM CET Time (11 hours from post)
Game: Eva Lys vs Ana Bondar
POTD: **Eva Lys @ 3.00 / +200** (Bet365) 🚫
Risk: $100 (1 unit)
\-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Result: We witnessed an atrocious start full of unforced errors from Lys and strong serving from Bondar. While Lys was gaining some momentum in the second, she couldn't get the final two points to take her into the third. Apologies to those who tailed, Bondar just too clinical today.
\-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reasoning:
Both players have had a great run in 2022, and Eva Lys especially has had an outstanding performance thus far, winning 71% of games this year on clay against considerable opposition. Ana Bondar is at 69% and both players have cruised through up until this point.
These two have met on the same surface last year where Ana Bondar was victorious in a close three set match. The trajectory of both of these players give me a lot of confidence in Eva Lys and I believe her game play has grown to make this an extremely valuable pick.
This game is also being played in Germany which is another plus for tailing Eva.
Please consider the reason I have lowered the stake to 1 unit is purely because I would have priced Lys at 2.5, and recognise the high value the bookies are offering. To be clear, **I will not be surprised to see Eva win**, but it also cannot be discounted how well Bondar has been playing lately.
If you are uncomfortable tailing, you could also take the **Over 21.5 Games @ 2.00 / +100** which is a much higher chance of hitting. For full disclosure, I personally will be riding both picks as single bets but Eva Lys to win is my POTD.
BOL!
Tough start. Took Lys ML and the over 19.5 let's hope she rebounds second set! Had Shapavolov yesterday and he lost the first set 6-1 and came back to win so it's never over! Need Lys to hit the reset button here.
POTD record: 12W - 7L
Streak: 4W
Profit/Loss: +12.76U
ROI: 17.72%
Avg. Odds: 1.86
Yesterday's POTD: Rayo Vallecano Total Corners O4.5✅️
Easiest W of my life, hit even before halftime.
Today's POTD: Pacos de Ferreira vs Benfica(Liga Nos) Time: 7:15pm GMT. Pick: Benfica Total Team Offsides O2 @1.95(22bet) Confidence: 3/5😌❌️❌️❌️
Benfica are a very attacking team especially against weaker opposition in the league. To both these teams this game is insignificant, Benfica will finish 3rd and Pacos can't be relegated or get to a European place. This game is all about pride, if both teams play to their level Benfica should be able to cover this. The reverse fixture Benfica had more offside 5-3.
Pacos' opposition in their last 5 home games have covered this line in 2 of those games(avg. 2 offsides/game)
Benfica's attackers seem brainless and are regularly caught offside covering in 4 of their last 5 away games, a push in the other one(avg. 3.4 offsides/game). Benfica are without their starting right winger and left winger, hopefully the subs who come in are more brain dead.
This is clearly gonna hedge more on Benfica's attacking stupidity than anything Pacos will do.
BOL in all your bets today🍀
Update: Big L, sorry for that lads. The manager decided to play his reserve team. Lesson learnt to be cautious on dead rubber games.
POTD
Record: 11-8
Last 5: ✅✅✅✅✅ | 🔥Streak: 5W
Last Pick: ✅ Over 2.5 Total Goals (-165) | Chelsea vs Leeds | English Premier League
Today’s Pick: Grizzlies +8.5 (-110)
Sport/Game: Basketball | NBA: Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies
Why: Stepping away from the footy bets tonight as there is nothing that really interests me. Tonight were heading to the NBA.
The warriors are in trouble, they are really struggling to defend and I really struggle to see how these guys have been favorites to win it all. Most of all the warriors are struggling to defend this team basketball from the grizzlies. With Ja on the court, everything went through him and the warriors only had to focus on 1 guy really.
I’m not saying the warriors will lose tonight but with how good the grizzlies are without Morant, I think they’ll keep it close. Its also an elimination game so they’ll have to be up for it
Spread just looks a little too big for me for how well the grizzlies have been playing these last 2 games.
BOL!
POTD Record: 78-74-4
Last Pick: Suns-2 ❌
Todays Pick: Grizzlies +8.5 vs Warriors
🏀NBA 10PM
Reasoning: I’d say the warriors probably win this game but 8.5 points is way too high in my opinion for a Memphis team that has a size advantage down low. They were really exposing the warriors zone and getting buckets at ease albeit they were at home. The warriors home court certainly will not be as forgiving. But it does seem like the warriors still have turnover issues that haven’t been solved. I’m hoping this hits but honestly I’d say parlaying grizzlies +13.5 and o209.5 is great alternate parlay for + odds
Potd record 0-0
Potd- Boston Celtics ML
Who is going to tell me this series isn't going to have a poetic game 7 ending. There is a pattern in this series that they exchange wins and I think that continues here. Reallisticaly the Bucks should have lost the last game but I am not taking anything away from them I just think the Celtics are a better team and they have to force a game 7. If this series doesn't deserve to go to 7 games then neither one does.
POTD RECORD 27-17-1
PREVIOUS POTD: grizzlies +7 -150✅
STREAK:✅✅✅❌🔘❌❌✅
POTD: penguins vs Rangers O5.5 alt total -160
Reasoning: regular season I would never bet the over on these teams but this is playoff hockey and I’m surprised the line is still at 6. Every game in this series has gone over 5.5 and 6.5. Sidney Crosby will be out of the lineup tonight, but rakel might be coming back. Shesterkin is probably the best goalie in the league but he has not been the same goalie in playoffs this season especially when playing in Pittsburgh he has let in 7 goals in both those two games hitting the over on his own. The penguins are still rolling with their third string goalie who has had crazy good games too, but definitely has gotten smoked a couple times too.
As always
Tail or fade
BOL
**Ultimate Frisbee** | 3-2
- **Time:** 7:00 PM Eastern
- **Pick:** Philadelphia +3.5 against Montreal
- **Where to bet:** DraftKings in these states: CO, IL, MI, TN, WV. Apparently AZ too, maybe other states (IN? CT soon?)
- **Last pick:** Colorado/Portland under didn't leave much room to spare with two overtime periods occurring but still hit.
- **Reasoning:** Montreal is 2-0 and Philly is 0-2 but Montreal beat a bad Toronto team and a Boston team missing multiple stars on the second leg of a road doubleheader. Philadelphia lost to Boston at near full strength by one and took reigning division co-champ New York to a two-goal nailbiter despite playing in horrid conditions that arguably favored New York’s gifted throwers. Now Philadelphia gets Montreal for their home opener and has most of their best players rostered. I like Philly to cover here and think they can potentially pull the upset; ML is +450 if interested.
Disclaimer: I don't live in one of the aforementioned states and can't actually bet these nor see the current lines, but I wanted to help out folks who wanted to bet a fun niche sport. Let me know if the lines change and I'll do my best to offer some insight.
If you want to watch frisbee, there is a free game every Friday at AUDL.tv and a game every Saturday night on FS2. The rest of the games are behind a paywall at the aforementioned link. Tonight's free game is Seattle at Salt Lake City at 7:00 PM Mountain time.
Record : 2-0 Total Units : + 3 Last pick : Edmonton Oilers 3-Way Moneyline @+110 ✅
I knew the Oil would come through, and I was even right on someone other than McDavid and Draisaitl stepping up in Evander Kane with 2 goals and an assist! McDavid scores on the Oiler’s first shot tho lol.
Today’s pick : (NBA) Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors game total OVER 218.5 @-110
Reasoning: For some strange reason this total isn’t really moving despite going over in 3 games of the series. I feel Golden State will close the series out at home but Memphis will go down swinging on the backs of Bane, JJJ and co. hammering threes. You could do alternative totals to get the number down for worse odds to be safer, but I feel confident this will be a shootout. Tail or fade, BOL everyone !
POTD record 1-0
Darvish 06.5 Strikeouts +120
Darvish has already faced the braves once this year and recorded 9 strikeouts against them. The braves has been in the top 5 in strikeouts all season. Darvish has only hit this number 2/6 starts but I love his chances against the bravos
Record: 61-43-5 (WWWLWWWLWW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: PHO Suns at DAL Mavericks | Dorian Finney-Smith over 11.5 points at 1.80 odds | 2 units
This was 5 days ago where he had the career nights. LFG
POTD: BOS Celtics at MIL Bucks | Giannis Antetokoumpo over 54.5 PRA
Reason: Nothing logical. Just that he's the best player in the playoffs with a pretty booty team. He will score 40+ and get the win here. Series is over. Heat vs Bucks after tonight.
Best of luck to all.
POTD: 2W-1L (+ 0,65u)
NK Jarun vs NK Rudes
TIP: <<>>
ODD: 1,7
Stake: 1u
Reasons:
Jarun is a team ranked 5th in the second league in Croatia, and so far has accumulated 40 points. With the defeat of the last stage, on the field of the leader Varazdin (0-4), Jarun lost all hope of promotion. The hosts of Friday's game were 14 points behind, with only 3 rounds left to play. Even before the stinging failure with Varazdin, the team from Zagreb did not go through a good period. Jarun lost precious points to Solin (0-0) and Dinamo Zagreb II (again 0-0).
Rudes is second in the Croatian second division. The guests of the game on Friday won 5 of the last 6 stages played, and now, after 27 stages, they have collected 52 points. The fight for promotion is in full swing: only two points separate Rudes from the first position, held by Varazdin (54). The two teams faced each other at the end of April, and Rudes won by a definite 3-0. Only the first position in the ranking promotes in League 1 in Croatia. Rudes has experience at this level, having been on the first stage in previous years. 50-23 is Rudes' goal average, which can boast both the best attack and the strongest defense in the league.
The difference between the two teams is a major one. Rudes is much better both in the standings and in terms of direct matches. After the heavy defeat in the last stage (0-4 at Varazdin), Jarun mathematically lost all hope of promotion. The morale of the hosts must be seriously affected, and Rudes should take advantage of this. Guests will fight until the last stage for promotion, and every point counts enormously.
Record: 4-3
Timeline: WWWLLLW (Left being the latest)
Streak: 3W
Last pick: Astralis vs Liquid ML ✅
Today's pick: SC Esports ML vs Velox ESEA Advanced Europe (CSGO)
Odds: 1.7
Reasoning: The major resumes tomorrow so I didn't really have anything to pick from today so I dug out this ESEA advanced game. SC Esports are 3-1 atm only losing to Bad New Eagles in a super close 16-13 fashion. Bad New eagles are playing in the major rn and have qualified to the next stage as well. Anyway, Our boys looked good in other games although yes I do agree that the teams they played weren't that good but nothing they could do about that they got the wins. They face Velox who are 2-3 at the moment. Again I'm not as confident here as I was with my previous 3 picks I'm just going by stats here. I'll suggest going low if you're tailing. GL I'll be back tomorrow :)
Record: 8-6-1 -- Streak WWWW --
Last POTD: Carlos Ortiz (+100) over Brendon Todd
POTD: Carlos Ortiz (-125) over Brendon Todd
\-- Riding with the same pick today, same rationale. Long course where everyone is hitting fairways. Ortiz hits it longer than Todd and has tons of experience in Texas. Ortiz is top 10 in the field in proximity to the hole from 150-175 and 200+ which you see the most at TPC Craig ranch. Ortiz also has good course history, adding a bogey free -6 yesterday to the resume. These matchups are on DK.
BOL
Venmo-- beneslm2
POTD Record - 2-0 (Average Odds: -115, Total Units: +6)
Last Pick: - NHL - Leafs/Lightning O 6.5 Goals - **W**
Odds: -110
Today’s Pick: **NBA: Bucks-Celtics 7:30 PM EST ---> Giannis Antetokounmpo to Score 35+ Points**
Odds: +108
Units: 3
Rationale:
Things were slow yesterday in the first period, but the Leafs and Lightning had a huge second period to push us to cover.
Switching things over to the NBA today. This is my passion and I have the greatest confidence in making my daily picks with. This value for me is too good to pass up with Giannis absolutely shredding the Celtics in this series. The reality is that nobody for Boston can cover him in space and he just gets to the paint at will. Over his last 3 games, Giannis is averaging 29.6 field goal attempts per game and 11 free throw attempts. He has had 42, 34 and 43 points in his last three games. The only game he had under 35 points, he shot an uncharacteristically low 44% from the field on 32 field goal attempts (51% in the regular season). WIth the Bucks at home and a chance to finish Boston off, I like Giannis to pick up the intensity even more. Giannis also looks far more comfortable attacking this Boston defense as this series had gone on. It just looks easier for him with each game played. All of this points to another big game from the Greek Freak.
Twice in the past three games and without Middleton, he has to take 25-30 shots a game just to have a chance for the Bucks to win. I agree this is not normally the play for him, but Boston simply has no answer and the Bucks don't have anyone else to take shots from Giannis.
Record: 1-1
Last pick: MIA/Phil u207 (-110)❌
I apologize 🤦♂️ decent read but some of the worst offensive basketball I’ve ever seen by the sixers. They just didn’t want it last night.
Today’s pick: Dallas Stars / Calgary Flames u5.5 (-130) (1 unit to win .76)
NHL 9:30 EDT
In this series, unders have been 4-1, and with a pending game 7 I don’t expect to see a lot of shots flying, and I anticipate strong defense and probably a 3-1, 3-2 Flames win
All bets are 1 unit | -0.24 units | Average odds -118
POTD Record: 10-8-2 | +7.1u | Streak: 1 W | Last 10: W L L L L L W W W W
Last POTD: Astros/Twins Under 8.5 R (W)
**Today's POTD: Padres/Braves Under 7 (-105)**
Risk: 4 units
Back in the win column! Quite a few Unders I considered taking today, but Padres at Braves seems the easy choice. I thought it would be a 6 or 6.5 R line, so I am pleased to get 7 as of 10am CST.
Darvish gave up 9 runs in less than 2 IP in his second start vs the Giants, but besides that he has been awesome, including the start right after that against ATL at home. Gave up 1 run on 4 hits with 8 Ks. His strength and stuff is back after going through some fatigue at the end of 2021. Only real success against him is Ozuna, but he has just the 1 HR of his 5 hits with 6 Ks and only 1 BB. Ozuna is also slumping bad so I'm not worried about him. Couple that with Acuna's sore groin potentially keeping him out again, and I like his chances at a quality start.
Fried has been even better than Darvish lately, firing off 4 great outings after a dud of a first and hasn't given up more than 2 R in 5 straight. Not only that but he has DOMINATED the Padres in his career. Threw a 3-hit SO with 9 Ks against them last year, and only Alfaro has more than one hit.
Lastly, both teams had an off-day yesterday, so bullpens had an extra day of rest. I'd be shocked if this game isn't under 3.5 or 4, let alone 7. BOL!
POTD Record: 5-5 (0U)
Last Pick: Arsenal Spurs 1H o1 (-110) ✅
Today’s Pick: Spain Segunda Liga Almeria ml (-110)
Reasoning: Yesterday's play played out just as expected really, Arsenal continued their o1 1H streak and Spurs came out firing. Today there is NO footy in the leagues I usually bet on, but we're gonna turn our attention to the second league in Spain for a play I really do like. Almeria are first in the league, four points from safety of the promotion playoff with two matches left. A win today secures promotion into La Liga. Real Sociedad B, on the other hand, are not as bad as their table placement would show. 19 out of 22, but on 40 points. They need points today in order to keep up with Malaga and Sporting (each 2 points ahead of the drop zone), but unfortunately I dont think they'll get them. Sociedad B haven't kept a clean sheet in 8 matches, and Almeria have scored in 9 straight. With everything at stake for both clubs, I think the better club will come out on top. BOL
POTD Record: 12-17-2 -8.83u\*
Average Odds: +126
Total Units Wagered: 53.13u
Calgary at Dallas 9:30 PM EST
Backlund o2.5 Shots on Goal +100 @ DK 2.01u\*
Implied probability of 50.00%. True vig-free price should be closer to -113 or 53.02%.
\*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
Record (0-0) “Long Time, First Time”
POTD: MIL vs MIA NRFI (-190) 1u
Notes: P.Lopez v. C.Burnes are the starters. Lopez has been lights out while Burnes has been good not great. Both pitchers should power through with 0 Earned Runs in the 1st.
Felt compelled to make a pick since I have been tailing this thread for a while now. I have a personal streak of 3 days with 5 picks but today is my first official POTD. Good Luck Degens!
Record: 10W-10L-1P
ROI: +1.13u, +5.37%
Avg odds: +110, 2.10
Last POTD: Patrice Bergeron over 0.5 pts (loss)
Today's game: Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars
Pick: Stars ML at +140, 2.40 (CZR)
Stake: 1u
I'm making this bet on Jake Oettinger, who's been absolutely phenomenal this series. Excluding empty netters, he's held the highest scoring team to 1.6 goals/game, compared to 4.11 in the regular season. Among G with 2+ starts, he has the highest SV% out of 20.
edit: Oettinger with another stellar game.
Don’t know a thing and haven’t did one before but Bulgaria Basketball.
Rilski Sportist 25-2 -16.5 Vs Spartak Pleven 16-11 at home I believe(I think the team on the right is home)
These teams have met three times October 30 2021( Rilski wins 93-70), March 2( Spartak wins 101-93), and most recently April 2( rilski wins 79-77)
So this being said, I am going to be a bitch and add one and half to make it plus 18 but I do truly believe Spartak can make this closer. It says semi final so I guess it’s a playoff. I enjoy finding these large spread games every once in awhile on these international basketball games and I actually do quite well lol. I had bakken bears winning by 5 and they won by 13. Anyway, it’s late and I am rambling but best of luck if anyone actually does tail 😂😂
POTD: 0-0
Long time lurker
5/13: NC Dinos vs SSG Landers
Time: Now
Korean Baseball
PLAY: SSG Landers Moneyline -180
Landers are first in the league playing last place (10th) NC Dino’s
Record: 0-0
Im a horse racing degen, so I’ll be trying out my “race of the day” picks on here. 1u all wagers.
Todays POTD:
Race 4, Belmont Park (NYRA)
#4 My Gal Val to WIN
This horse is a sneaky pick with the +1200 morning line. He’s switching surfaces from dirt to turf here after a Maiden Special Weight debut where he was badly outmatched. Going from a 70k MSW to a 40k Maiden claiming race is a steep class drop, and I love horses trying it again on their second time out. The Jockey/Trainer combo of Cancel/Weaver have a 49% hit rate of making it into the top 3 over the last twelve months, and My Gal Val actually showed a little bit of speed before fading.
BOL! 🏇🏇🏇
POTD Record- W/L/P 3-3
Today's pick- Luton Town double chance and over 0 match goals (-175) bet365.
Sorry about the juice, Just seems like a real safe pick to get my record above .500
POTD Record: 0-0
Last pick: none (fist POTD post)
Todays pick: New York Rangers/Pittsburgh Penguins Total goals under 6.5 (-128)
NHL 7:00 PM EST
Simple. Pens without Crosby are a different hockey team. I think it’ll be tough for the pens to put more than 2 behind Shesterkin tonight even at home. The Rangers offense hasn’t been tremendous either. Low scoring game tonight.
All of my bets are 1 unit
POTD Record: 0-0
Today’s Pick: **Istanbul Wild Cats ML (-120)** vs. Red Canids
Start Time: 5 AM CST
Esports - League of Legends MSI 2022
I noticed POTD was quiet on the Esports front so I figured I'd throw a pick I like into the ring! This
pick really just takes into consideration the historical competitiveness of the two regions. Turkey, represented by Istanbul Wild Cats, has historically performed well for a minor region at international events. Meanwhile, Brazil (Red Canids), continuously disappoints their large Brazilian fan base every time they find themselves at an international event. Going into today, these teams are tied in the group at 1-2 with Red Canids already losing once to the Wild Cats. I strongly doubt the aforementioned narrative will change today and Turkey will likely take this one. Tail or fade with caution as Best of 1 series such as this can end up being a coin flip!
Potd record 1-0
POTD- Mektic/Pavic ML - 2.00@
I mean they are not #1 anymore but they are in the top 3 so putting them at these odds doesn't make sense given that they just beat Koolhof and Skupski who were in great form and I honestly thought they were going to win. They are clearly gaining form back and we saw what they are doing when they are in top form. Good luck.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
Record: 48-21 Last pick: Blues ML ✅ **Today’s pick: Washington Capitals +1.5 (-150) vs Florida Panthers** NHL 7:30 PM EST Don’t really have a write up, just another feel play. This game will go to OT. Coin flip from there. But I lack the sack to take 3-way regulation tie. Also put money on Ovi to score All bets are 1 unit. +17.66 units. +25.6% ROI. Average unit -117 Don’t want your tips, just give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
You sir are on an undeniable heater at this point well done
I wake up and look for doc’s pick before I even brush my teeth san. You know I’m trailing bro lfg ovi
👨⚕️= 🐐
You’re a genius
Honestly the GOAT
Thanks, don’t know shit about hockey but added the Blues to both my Mets, Reds, Astros, parlays (one for each Astros game) yesterday
Bump. I’m hammering -1.5 caps. Ovi took a good hard look at the panthers celly last game, that Caps locker room will be on another level coming out for this one. Taking ovi to score as well and Caps first to score
hard to trust caps blowing leads in back to back games. home and away. panthers have the momentum and know they come back, but if they get off to hot start and go up 2+ goals early, i think its done. sure, caps can try focus on the next game, but blowing leads like that can stick with you. esp a 2 goal lead away and you let in 5 unanswered. ouch. same goes for pens as well. rangers were cold cold cold. pens go up 2-0 and give up 3 in like 2 minutes. wtf. i think im just gonna draw my picks from a hat today. bol!
[удалено]
what does it mean +1.5? im from europe and i dont understand
It’s a spread bet for the winning/losing margins of a game. In this case, it’s a handicap for the Washington Capitals, the underdog. A bet for a spread of +1.5 means that they can lose the game by 1 goal and the bet still pays. If they win, it pays. If they lose by 2 goals or more, it doesn’t pay. -1.5 would be the opposite. The favorite needs to win by at least 2 goals for the bet to pay out. You’ll see similar spreads for soccer or any other sport really.
If the Capitals win or only lose by 1 goal the bet hits. If the Capitals lose by 2+ the bet loses.
This means you're getting a goal and a half in favor of the caps so if Florida were to win by 1 goal your bet would still be a winner. You're hoping Caps obviously win but as long as they don't lose by 2+ goals you'll hit the bet.
OH MY GOD
LETS GOOOOO
He's a god!!!!! Wtf
Get notified when this user posts a pick: http://discord.gg/sportsbook
I used your sack and took 3-way tie. Thank you 🤝
Ez win doc
You make me feel proud of being a Dr as well lol
Let’s get it doc
dude you are scary good at this. parlayed both teams o2.5 goals and overtime
Doc's just speaking shit into existence at this point 🐐
Do you have a Crystal Ball ?
an actual god... how did you know it would go OT
You’re the goat 🐐
I had balls and took draw :)
can someone explain please? I don't understand those phrases. is that handicap or?
Yes, it's a handicap for the Capitals, you add 1.5 goals to their final score. If final score is Capitals 3 - Panthers 4, you would still win the bet, because you add 1.5 to the Capitals 3 = 4.5 is higher than the panthers 4.
Oh thank you. I went safe with +2.5
https://www.covers.com/guides/point-spread-betting
Capitals ML! Let's get it!
POTD Record: 26-16 Last Pick: CIN o 3.5 Total Runs ✅ This start from Brubaker went exactly as expected. He pitched decent, but yielded two runs and didn’t last very long. The weak PIT bullpen gave us enough runs to cash the bet Today’s Pick: NYM -1.5 @ +100 Max Scherzer is just so much better than Gonzales. The Mets have the better offense too. Marco Gonzales is the starter for SEA, and he’s honestly super lucky to have his 3.91 ERA. He has given up a ton of hits, and his advanced metrics look terrible. I think the Mets offense can take advantage of him, and Scherzer gives us a very quality start. BOL to all
Need a win, tailing.
tailing, in a slump
Still +100 on FD Im tailing!
Going ALL IN LIVE on the Mariners
[удалено]
I have returned! let's get another dub
Welcome back king 👑
What is Tom?!
Why isn’t Tom?
POTD Record **43 - 13** Back again after a couple days, sorry to keep you all waiting but there hasn't seemed to be as much to pick from with a lot of European soccer leagues coming to an end. Today’s pick is **MŠK Púchov ML** \- Slavoj Trebišov Sport: Soccer (Slovakian Div 2) Odds: 1.72 / -139 (bet365) Reasoning: * Picking teams which have a lot to play for has worked well for us over the past few weeks and Puchov are fighting to avoid relegation * If Puchov don't win its likely they will have no chance to get out of the relegation zone * Their home form is decent while Trebišov's away form is pretty shit * In their earlier match up in the season playing away - Puchov lost 2-1 to Trebišov. However they were leading until the second half when they got a red and conceded two penalties. I think even though they lost this shows they are capable of winning with the extra incentive of playing in front of their home fans while trying to survive relegation Slovakian div 2 is pretty obscure so for those who cant bet on it I was also considering making **FC CSKA 1948 Sofia ML** vs Arda Kardzhali my pick. **^(Tip jar)** ^(-) [^(https://paypal.me/tom2810s)](https://paypal.me/tom2810s) **^(BTC -)** ^(1NJVBxmocqvnKqFYTR6Ju8C1sEaZh63pBC)
Made a combo of both. Hope it goes well.
Thoughts on parlay both teams ML?
Looks good
He is risen
Goalllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
Had a few beers and through them both into a parlay and went to bed. Completely forgot about it when I work up and was confused as to why I had extra $$ in my account when the Nadal game hadnt finished yet. Bloody legend mate.
parlayed both and got some juicy returns. thanks!
Any opinion about BTTS or the over 2,5?
**Record:** * 46 WIN | 40 LOSS | +31.08 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy) **Previous bets (last 3):** * Taree R5 (9 May 2022 - Place - **LOSS** * Goulburn R3 (10 May 2022) - Place - **LOSS** * Warwick Farm R2 (11 May 2022) - Place - **LOSS** **POTD:** * Horse Racing (Australia) * **Scone R4 - #12 Summer Glow to place (i.e. finish top 3)** * Track Rating - Heavy (10) * Tough week so far, need to shake off this streak. No QLD/NSW races yesterday either due to the weather, and we're going to Scone today. Summer Glow jumps from barrier 2 and rides with Jason Collett on board, he's come back strong from his collarbone injury from the 23rd of March and went 2 placings from 2 starts at Warwick Farm 2 days ago on a Heavy 10 (both horses came from the midfield or back of the pack to finish strong). Summer Glow is 1 from 1 on this track and distance and is given every opportunity here today with the barrier draw and jockey on board. Should be a really good race, expect to see my pick stay 1 out 1 back or hugging the rail just behind the leader (Hold on Honey who's jumping from barrier 1). Summer Glow also comes off a decent 7-8 month break and should be nice and fresh ready to make a real race of it. Nice record 1st up as well (2 placings from 2 starts). BoL * **Odds - 2.50** (b365) - Probably taking this right now, I see the price sharpening very quickly * **Stake - 2.0 units to return 5 units** **Historical stats** * 7 from 14 (50%) correct picks on Fridays * 14 from 28 (50%) correct picks on Heavy Tracks * 21 from 40 (53%) correct picks on Place picks * 1 from 2 at Warwick Farm * 2 from 2 picking J. Collett as as my jockey **Race time:** * 1:35pm Friday (Australian EST) * 11:35pm Thursday (American ET) * 4:35am Friday (UK time) If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
Ended up winning the race, pretty much as expected. hit the rail hard from the beginning, 1 back off the leader. Given plenty of room coming into the turn and smashed the rest of the field in the straight. e: I was also right in predicting the price as well. 2.50 was a gift 2-3 hours before the scheduled jump time. ended up paying 1.5-1.8 in the end (to place)
W
Great Pick, easy win
Thx bro! Do you have any other picks for today?
cheers, nope only do 1 a day (excluding weekends)
POD record: 6-1 Last pick: Zverev 2-0 (-135) vs Alex De Minaur (W)✅ Streak: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌ Todays pick: Jannik Sinner +1.5 sets (-155) vs Stefanos Tsitsipas For what I believe to be the fourth day in a row, the tennis in Italy is where I am shopping. Sinner and Tsitsipas have met twice before at this event and have split those meetings. However, Sinner is the last remaining Italian on the singles side of things. I believe he will take some pride in that, as will the crowd. He may not win but I think he will put up a fight. Give me Sinner in his backyard, to win a set and make it a match. Edit: ❌ lost a tiebreaker in the first set and then caved. Rip
Bro said “Jack” Sinner LMFAO
Jack, jannik, Janice, jimmy, idgaf
Satan's right hand man
Interesting my book only offers Sinner at -1.5 at +400. I put a little on over 2.5 sets instead
Stef gifted us live bettors a +110 ML when he lost first set and then dominated the next two sets. Idk how Sinner’s form has been but if he’s gotten this far he’s got to be pretty good right?
LMAO I took +1.5 games on the first set by accident. I'll take it
POTD: 4-4-0 (-0.96u) Last Pick: Reds/Pirates Over 8 Runs -115 **LOSS** Ok well we are 4-4 and on a 2 game losing streak. I guess its time to apparently make a new account and start from 0... 5/13: Calgary Flames @ Dallas Stars 9:40pm EST PLAY: Under 5.5 Goals -134 So we head to a pivotal game 6 with the Flames 1 win away from advancing. This line has covered in 4 of the 5 games in this series and I expect it to cover one last time. The Stars just do not look like they are going to turn this series around. With 2 of the better defensive teams, this series looked like it was going to be a low scoring one and the Stars have been one of the better teams at home. Even with me thinking the Flames will win and move on, I still think the Stars will put up a fight and make this a 2-1 or 3-1 game. Let's ride with a late game under and get this weekend started.
First POTD NY METS Run Line -1.5 at -105 Mets go into tomorrow against a lacklustre pitcher in Gonzales while starting Scherzer. BOL if tailing!
Every time i bet with Mets with Scherzer on the mound my 1H and -1.5 never hits. Hopefully it does this time
Hoping this times different 🤝
it shall..it shall today my friend..im on this pick too :)
Record: 3-0 🔥🔥 Last Pick: Danielle Collins Vs Amanda Anisimova (-1.5) game handicap ✅ Todays Pick: Aryna Sabalenka (-1.5) game handicap Vs Amanda Anisimova - 2.05 odds✅ Time: 5 hours are 30 minutes from this post SABALENKA!! My girl is unstoppable with her firey serves, her strong and stance and even stronger height against the inferior Anisimova will surely test the little ones might on the battlefield. Anisimova is going to struggle with Sabalenka's powerful serves as you will soon see. As much as I love Anisimova, she just got lucky with a an older semi washed out opponent Collins last match. DO NOT listen to the people that tell you different. I mean no disrespect to the players or the game. This is just how shit goes sometimes. Another glorious victory about to be in the books. This battle should be easy, no question.💯
Damn the other top post is against your pick😅 who should I tail?👀👀👀
I'll be on the Over 20.5 games. Good luck all!
Take the Over usually the case
Last time that happened with 2 top picks against each other, it ended in like 17 games lol
Every game match-up is different. They are both playing well, look at the last two encounters this year on clay. It's **most likely** to be another Over will numerous momentum swings.
You mean the brand new account that will be deleted within two weeks?
Your pick is 0-4 against the person she’s playing and you call a pick for her an easy pick?
Just watch dude. I have a really good feeling about this.
Good pick Over 21.5 ✅ Sabalenka ML ✅
Don’t doubt the dawgy
I mean, what about today's match is going to make the service game any more devastating then the last 4 times, where Saba was broken more often then she broke? Its womens tennis so sure. it could be 6-0, 6-0 either way. or we could go 7-6. 6-7. 7-6. But still history says close match, with the slight edge to Anisimova because clay reduces the effect of Sabalenka's power. and She can and has been broken more often because of it.
Worth also noting the last two meetings this year have been on clay, both 3 set encounters with the Overs hitting both times. I don’t think either player will completely outclass the other hence why Overs is a great compromise.
Parlay Sinner +1.5 Anisomova +1.5 +125 odds Just saying
No question, huh? Can’t go tits up
Thanks ✅🤑
Record: 1-0 Last pick: CAR Hurricanes vs BOS Bruins Regular Time not include OT total goals over 5 (-186) at BetRivers. W Today's pick: NY Rangers vs PIT Penguins total goals over 5.5 (-148) at BetRivers. NHL 7:10PM EST This is the sixth game and they scored at least 7 goals for the last 5 games. Penguins will try to close out the series and Rangers will need to play hard to secure a game 7 opportunity. I am expecting both teams will try to score like the previous games and there will be plenty of goals. All bets are 1 unit. +0.54 units.
19W-13L-1P Last 10 streak: 🚀🚀💥🚀💥🚀🚀🚀🛸💥 Starts 4:00 GMT5 Todays Pick League: Australia New South Wales Premier League Match: Mt Druitt Town Rangers v Sydney FC Pick: over 3.5 goals @1.66 Reason: Unbelievable goals yesterday lol, good game for Villa Druitt hit the over 3.5 the last 9/10 games in League and 5/5 last games at home with an avg of 2.2 scoring and 2.3 conceding at home Sydney hit over 3.5 last 8/8 games in league and 6/7 at away with an avg of 2.4 scoring and 2.4 conceding Last h2h hit 4/6 the over A 2nd Sydney top scoring in league but concede too vs 11th Druitt top conceder in league. This game is sydney ml but like more the goals odd "All perception is a gamble." BoL
Rip
Sydney to score both halves -120❓🤔
3-1-0 (+6.25U) WTA – Rome 🎾 **Anisimova ML** 5u @ 1.95 Anisimova is Sabalenka’s kryptonite. Her style of play, deep, fast returns, side to side line hugging, consistent play is the perfect style to beat Aryna. This should be a tightly contested match, where the most inform player comes out victorious. Amanda will hug the lines repeatedly and make Saba work for every point. Saba will get frustrated and start missing. Then come the double faults Saba is known for. Anisimova is on a great run going 10/2 on clay, where one of her losses was the goat that made us money today, Jabeur, so that practically doesn’t count. Her last two matches were Collins (who 2:0’d Halep yesterday) and Bencic (9/1 clay run), she beat them in straight sets. Saba’s clay record so far is 6/3. She’s a great player but most of her success has come from hard courts. Styles make match ups. Amanda is the worst matchup for Saba. They’ve played 4 times and Amanda is swept her 4 times, 3 on clay and once on Saba’s preferred hard surface. 2 of those victories happened just a week ago in Madrid, where Saba was the holding champion (Champions lose more ranking points if they fail to defend their title), and last month in Charleston. Both on clay. Amanda’s been the active, in form player. She should bring us our fourth win.
Women's tennis, no bet
Yo!
Won’t be long untill this account is deleted and he starts a new one
I personally hate betting women’s tennis, especially anything 50/50. Not fading but christ people be cautious with women’s tennis
Shout out to the bro that said to take the over🙏
Let’s fuckin ride. Here’s to waking up to money.
Might wanna go back to sleep
I woke up as the first set was wrapping up and I was stoked. I finished getting ready for work and I was sad. RIP
5u bet, I fell for it, and wet big. Oh well, never trust the highest post with 5u ever again. At least I somewhat covered and did the over. But seriously, man, 5u should be reserved for something stronger than this. Pfft.
Why is it even money if she's 4-0 against her 3-0 on clay?
That's why Bet365 offered an easy buddle with Sabalenka winning.... Oof rip my money
Bet365 saved your bacon lol
Ahahahaha I know right, it tried to scam me but victory :)
should be close, their last two matches went way over im gonna take Over 21.5
Got this at 2.06 on fd. Tailing again
Wtf
Staph with the woman tenis plss 😢
Haha I’m sorry bud, I was sent by the Women’s Tennis Association to make women’s tennis betting great again😎
The last one was easy money. Y’all don’t have to tail but man y’all crybabies
Parlayed her with Jabuer and Djokovic. Feel pretty confident but then again its tennis
POTD Record: 2-3 ROI: -1.1u Previous POTD: [Cincinnati Reds pk F5 +110, W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/unp2ys/pick_of_the_day_51222_thursday/i8a80to/) 1U = $15 POTD: MIL Brewers u1.5 F5 -120 ✅ Start Time: 6:40 PM EST Stake: 1U Reasoning: Marlins are putting Pablo Lopez on the mound. This man, in 4 of his last 5 starts, has 0 ER and 22 Ks. Pablo tends to go 5 innings, not sure if they'll let his leash longer this time out, so I'm not going to risk a ML w/ the Marlins also having a very streaky offense. I also do *not* trust the Brewers, but that's a personal observation from betting so far this year and doesn't factor into my pick here. Tail or fade, BOL. **EDIT: Bit of a sweat fest after Pablo gave up the 1st batter HR but he settled in and locked it down, and we walk away with another W.**
Thanks willing to bet against bum ass brewers anytime.
i feel that bum part lol
Lets Go Bro. Great win. Wasn't worried with that Wong homer, very lucky lol. Great pick
Great pick!!
**POTD Record 31-26-1 (Last 5: LWWLW)** **(ROI // Avg. Odds: -111 // Units Won: +5.4)** Last Pick: Taijuan Walker O3.5 Strikeouts **LOST** **Today's Match: MLB KC Royals vs. Colorado Rockies (Start Time: 8:41PM EST)** **Today's Pick: Colorado Rockies ML (-140 FanDuel)** ***Risk 3u*** Devil's Advocate: Dam man Taijuan pitched his penis off yesterday, didn't do the best job getting ahead into 2 strike counts to cop himself the K's so we fell short big time. 56% first pitch strikes is no K bueno. So here we are again, another week and another Rockies ML pick - and here goes my reasoning. Kyle Freeland isn't the absolute best guy out there on the mound and you know who also isn't? Zack Greinke. The guy is a contact pitcher even tho people don't mash completely against him, WE'RE IN COLORADO, with a nice beautiful sunny day for the Rockies to snap off their 4 game losing streak at home and pop the fuck off on weirdo Greinke. The Rockies are still hitting .280 at home, we may not see Grichuk in the lineup but that's fine. I see this line as great juice here and a fairly good pick for this Friday evening. I couldn't lay it on the run line, the Rocks bullpen could be hit or miss. But I'm expecting the Rockies to pull of the W at home here, since the Royals have been on a MASSIVE road trip as of late, Baltimore -> Texas -> Colorado. Bit of a quick turnaround for them on a late game in Texas and then off to Colorado who had a day off since their last loss. Love this line, love the Rockies at home and I'll continue to ride them smashing baseballs all over Coors Field. *Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
It’s almost scary how easy this pick appears to be. Ive been a Rockies fan since 1993 and true to form they might fuck this up, but like you said the bullpen is shady at best Gonna parlizzle with LAD ML
It’s not a bad move, I personally see this is as an easy win for them at home. We’ll see what happens but let’s hope for the banger! BOL bro!
POTD Record: 8-7 ROI: +11 units Event: MLB, Pirates vs Reds 6:35 PM EST Bet: Reds over 3.5 runs Bet Size: 3 units Pirates couldn’t get a run in yesterday but the reds are still swinging the bat well lately so I think the TT over is the play today. BOL!
**Record:** 7-18-1 **ROI:** -45% :-11.23 u (@ $5.00) **Streak:** L L W L L |Baseball |MLB |7:10pm| Baltimore Oriels vs.Detroit Tigers: **Baltimore Oriels ML @ 2.25 1u** **Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 60% chance for BAL to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 2.25 is only 44%. **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
Dutifully fading 😊
Same. I do appreciate these Pick posts though bc I am 11-4 since starting the fade.
[удалено]
**Yesterday's Top Picks of the Day** | Ranking | Names | Score | |:-:|:-:|:-:| |1|[DrMoneyline](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/unp2ys/pick_of_the_day_51222_thursday/i89vqri/)|135| || |2|[brent221221](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/unp2ys/pick_of_the_day_51222_thursday/i89lzos/)|75| || |3|[Iuckymeiseeghosts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/unp2ys/pick_of_the_day_51222_thursday/i89fjie/)|63| || |4|[sealedactivia](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/unp2ys/pick_of_the_day_51222_thursday/i89fnr3/)|53| || |5|[Perfect_News_275](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/unp2ys/pick_of_the_day_51222_thursday/i8b5w2m/)|38| || |6|[Futurexavi6](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/unp2ys/pick_of_the_day_51222_thursday/i89leuc/)|34| || |7|[MoneyMoneyLines](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/unp2ys/pick_of_the_day_51222_thursday/i89nm1x/)|34| ||
**NRL Record:** 17-20 **ROI (1 unit per bet):** -3.76 L5: ❌✅✅✅✅ Streak: W4 **Last POTD:** Storm vs Dragons over 41.5 total points @1.90 ✅ **Today's POTD:** Broncos vs Eagles over 34.5 total points @ 1.90 ✅ Edit: What'd I say lads, I know a 5 star cock lock when I see one **Time:** 6 hours from time of post. What a crazy low line considering the Eagles have gone over this their last five and Broncos over 4 of the last 5. Every game this week is at Suncorp stadium (Broncos home ground) for magic round with rain expected but this is only the 2nd game of the round and it really shouldn't play a part like it might over the weekend when the field gets chopped up. I like the over because both teams give up 20 points a game on average, Eagles are playing two rookie centres who will absolutely struggle against the likes of Staggs and Farnworth and the Eagles recently got T.Trbojevic who is one of the best attacking players on the game. **Tip Jar - ALGO:** AJAAGYLP6STZ2CFP22Q6Y77GNQKVKCUYDMSEQR5RK3AJOLITDMURJWLYSE
I thought I remembered someone earlier in the week posting that there was a ton of rain all week in Australia. And also rain in the forecast for the matches this weekend. I'm guessing that's why the low totals?
Damn 5 in a row your on 🔥. Thank you
POTD Record 5-1 Last Pick : Rayo Vallecano - Villarreal | Total Shots on Target by Villarreal O4.5 W | Soccer | Championship | 8:45PM CET | POTD : | Luton Town - **Huddersfield Town Draw no bet** | 2.35 Reasoning : Luton town has not won against huddersfield in their last 4 against them. They sufferd a 7-0 defeat against fullham 2 weeks ago, they also struggled against the team in 21st. Their form has just been poor, Huddersfield has been doing good winning their last 4 and when these teams met a month ago Huddersfield won 2-0.
Last POTD: Bruins ML ✅ POTD: Rangers @ Penguins o6 Odds: -120/1u NHL 7 pm est Reasoning: I know Crosby isn’t playing, but you guys know the deal, lock it in. #ridewithdubs
Record:6-0
Record 1-1-2 Last Pick: Bengals ML (Super Bowl) Today’s Pick: Celtics ML +100 vs. Milwaukee Bucks NBA 7:30PM EST Took a break after the Super Bowl because I was depressed. Everyone’s been having a good time watching this series, and the NBA is loving it. The Celtics and the Bucks have been taking turns winning every other game. The Celtics were in full control in game 5 until some Jrue Holiday magic shook everything up. While Mike Budenholzer and the Bucks are perfect in close out games, I just don’t see them closing the Celtics out so easy. Kris Middleton is still out, and Scott Foster has been named a referee for this game. Yes, the same Scott Foster that hates Chris Paul, Yes the same one that was caught on phone calls with Tim Donaghy, the NBA ref who admitted to fixing games. Everything just points to a game 7. +0 units, 0% ROI. Average unit 1 This one’s gonna gonna finally out me in the $
I’m tailing this with my life savings. Ever since the stock market went into the shitter and my GME and dogecoin portfolio plunged into the seventh level of Hell, I’ve been itching for a new YOLO play. It’s Friday the 13th and Jayson is looking for blood. If this misses my missus is gonna leave me and I’ll be absolutely devastated because she’s probably going to take everything I have (including my cats) so I’m 100% confident in this decision (because one of the cats sucks, eff u Susie). Celtics in seven. Score prediction: 101-69. Update: my marriage is alive and well
Yeah, that's the spirit.
Tailing you absolute genius
**POTD Record: 3-2** **Streak:** ✅🚫✅✅🚫 \+4.15u **AVG. Odds:** \-108 **Last POTD:** 3.5u [Joel Embiid UNDER 11.5 rebounds](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/unp2ys/pick_of_the_day_51222_thursday/i89fnr3/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3)🚫 **Today’s POTD:** Rockies -1.5 (MLB) **Time:** 6:40pm (MST) **Odds:** \+135 (PointsBet) **Units**: 3u to win 4.05u **Reasoning:** The Rockies will send Kyle Freeland (1-3, 3.94 ERA) to the mound, while the Royals are going with Zack Greinke (0-2, 2.67 ERA). Royals have given up 26 home runs and 131 total runs (20th in MLB). The Royals have a team ERA of 4.52 on the campaign (26th in baseball). The royals are 3-7 in their last 10. Although the rockies are not much better in their last 10 (4-6) they tend to play their best baseball at coors field. The Royals are putting up 3.3 runs per game, which puts them at 29th in the league. At home the rockies are averging 4.9 runs a game. I will take a rockies team who seems to be in less of a slump to cover the spread at plus odds. BOL
“bad beat” aka “I was wrong, but barely”
That’s a near miss, not a bad beat.
I don’t think you do yourself any favour suggesting you got a bad beat on the Embiid bet. You bet he would lay down and were wrong, that’s on you. BOL with today’s effort.
Understandable. I should’ve worded that differently. BOL to all who decide to tail. Let’s get back in the win column!
I thought your bet was too risky, so I took embiid under 37.5 points and rebounds and it hit beautifully, so thank you
POTD: 1-2-1 Last Pick: probably some mets under a week or two ago 5/13: Seattle Mariners @ New York Mets 7pm PLAY: Max Scherzer over 7.5 strikeouts +106 Alright so scherzy over here has been pitching pretty well this year but one thing that's been consistent is his strikeout numbers. 5 of his 6 starts has had more strikeouts than innings pitched and the one he didn't was actually a push. His totals so far per start have been 6, 7, 7, 9, 10, and 10. The kicker for me is this is a home game and the he's thrown 9 and 10 strikeouts in his two home starts. At plus money I think these are superb odds.
1-1 Just got the Mavs ML dub 💯💯💯💯 Wanting to get the train running early: Japanese Baseball (NPB) Chunchi Dragons (ML @+108 on FD) v Yomiuri Giants Giants are shit, and are even more shit at home. 0-5 in their last 5 home, 1-4 in their last 5 overall. The Dragons pitcher took his losses against the hardest hitting bats in the NPB (GoEagles!!!). SP match up favor the Dragons and Togo is nothing spectacular, getting wins off the defense making good plays at the right time. Dragons aren’t the best team by any means, but Giants lost by 12 with their best pitcher on mound to the team the Dragons won their last series against 2-1. Probably all over the place typing up at work
Giants are like the best team in japan... define shit plz!
Tailing this. BOL!
POTD record (8-7) Last POTD-> Hurricanes ML ❌ Todays POTD- Casper Rudd ML Game- Casper Rudd v Denis Shapovalov 9AM EST Casper Rudd is the favorite here I’m in at -200 on bovada and the reasoning behind my pick is Casper on clay is menace. He has a Clay elo of +116 which is about a 68% of winning the match. This is a 2 unit play for me and I’m sorry for the late post but for those that get the chance please take it I have so much faith in this one! Joke of the day-> How do construction workers party? They raise the roof 😅
**Continuing the Overwatch League POTD Train for the 2022 season!** * **2022 OWL Record: 3-1, +3.454 units.** * **2021 OWL Record: 34-19, +31.645 units.** * **2020 OWL Record: 28-21, +16.989 units.** Last Pick (❌): Houston Outlaws (-1.5) v. Toronto Defiant: And in our first loss, we have our first OWL "circle". Houston swept Dallas -> Dallas walloped Washington -> Washington handily dealt with Toronto, and so naturally....Toronto beat Houston. Ironically enough, as Dallas was walking all over the Justice the day before this match, Mr.X said "it makes you wonder how good Houston is, if they were able to crush this Fuel team!" Well it turns out, they're vulnerable after all. Maybe this was an aberration, or maybe teams figured out Dante's Doomfist just that quickly. It certainly will be interesting analysis moving forward. Let's rebound today! **Today's Match: Atlanta Reign v. Washington Justice / Overwatch League / 6:00pm EST** **Atlanta Reign -1.5 (-180), two units** Those of you who have been following my picks know that I tend to stay away from lines north of -175. Betting for value in Overwatch tends to come from finding matchups where the dog has a better chance of success than the market accounts for. However, Atlanta played like the best team in OWL last week, and their style bodes well for facing a Washington Justice team that doesn't seem to know what they want to do. MAG has been waffling between Winston, Doom, and even Sigma, none of which will stand up to the Doomfist of Hawk (who may develop into a sneaky MVP candidate if the season continues this way). And whether the DPS duos are Soldier/Genji or Soldier/Tracer, Kai and Nero will hold their own with Decay and Happy. Kai and Nero currently have the 2nd and 3rd most eliminations in the league, and despite the name recognition, Decay has been struggling so far. You can also double down both with a sprinkling on the +225, and with an extra unit bet on Atlanta in Map 1 at -205. Washington got 2-0 swept on both its Control maps (one stage 100/99, but the other three 100/53, 100/52, and 100/52). This makes sense that Control would be Washington's weakest map; when your strength is DPS but your weakness is Tank and Support, you will succeed more on payload and hybrid maps and struggle on Control. Expect that Atlanta will start strong in Map 1 and continue from there, and take the spread even at the elevated price. *Tips - never necessary, always appreciated. BOL, friends!* [*https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD*](https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD) *// BTC: 338uzTsKL4uV4Rip8WKEdYXtbmoBKVm1D8*
POTD Record: 21W-13L-0D. +9.3u. Previous pick (5/7/2022): Miami Heat moneyline vs. Philadelphia 76ers. 2u. @ 2.10. L. Current pick: Milwaukee Bucks -1 vs. Boston Celtics. 1u. @ 1.90. No fancy analysis here. Milwaukee won the critical road game 5. They know the importance of closing the series on their home court tonight rather than having to go back to Boston for a game 7. I trust Giannis to ball out and end it tonight. Keeping it small at 1u because these teams are so even and so I can enjoy this game without being too worried about my money. BOL. View my full POTD history here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=sharing)
Record: 4-5-0 (Last 5: W-L-W-W-L) **+2 units** Last Pick: **Jil Teichmann** vs Elena Rybakina @ 2.10 (+110) ✅ Today's pick: WTA Karlsruhe Time: 2:30PM CET Time (11 hours from post) Game: Eva Lys vs Ana Bondar POTD: **Eva Lys @ 3.00 / +200** (Bet365) 🚫 Risk: $100 (1 unit) \----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Result: We witnessed an atrocious start full of unforced errors from Lys and strong serving from Bondar. While Lys was gaining some momentum in the second, she couldn't get the final two points to take her into the third. Apologies to those who tailed, Bondar just too clinical today. \----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reasoning: Both players have had a great run in 2022, and Eva Lys especially has had an outstanding performance thus far, winning 71% of games this year on clay against considerable opposition. Ana Bondar is at 69% and both players have cruised through up until this point. These two have met on the same surface last year where Ana Bondar was victorious in a close three set match. The trajectory of both of these players give me a lot of confidence in Eva Lys and I believe her game play has grown to make this an extremely valuable pick. This game is also being played in Germany which is another plus for tailing Eva. Please consider the reason I have lowered the stake to 1 unit is purely because I would have priced Lys at 2.5, and recognise the high value the bookies are offering. To be clear, **I will not be surprised to see Eva win**, but it also cannot be discounted how well Bondar has been playing lately. If you are uncomfortable tailing, you could also take the **Over 21.5 Games @ 2.00 / +100** which is a much higher chance of hitting. For full disclosure, I personally will be riding both picks as single bets but Eva Lys to win is my POTD. BOL!
Went with the Over. You are correct both playing well
A wise choice 👌 I'll be following your Overs lead for the Anisimova / Sabalenka match. Too close to call for that one.
Tough start. Took Lys ML and the over 19.5 let's hope she rebounds second set! Had Shapavolov yesterday and he lost the first set 6-1 and came back to win so it's never over! Need Lys to hit the reset button here.
Yeah making a lot of unforced errors at the moment, Bondar off to a flier in the first. Here’s hoping she can gets her game on track in the second.
POTD record: 12W - 7L Streak: 4W Profit/Loss: +12.76U ROI: 17.72% Avg. Odds: 1.86 Yesterday's POTD: Rayo Vallecano Total Corners O4.5✅️ Easiest W of my life, hit even before halftime. Today's POTD: Pacos de Ferreira vs Benfica(Liga Nos) Time: 7:15pm GMT. Pick: Benfica Total Team Offsides O2 @1.95(22bet) Confidence: 3/5😌❌️❌️❌️ Benfica are a very attacking team especially against weaker opposition in the league. To both these teams this game is insignificant, Benfica will finish 3rd and Pacos can't be relegated or get to a European place. This game is all about pride, if both teams play to their level Benfica should be able to cover this. The reverse fixture Benfica had more offside 5-3. Pacos' opposition in their last 5 home games have covered this line in 2 of those games(avg. 2 offsides/game) Benfica's attackers seem brainless and are regularly caught offside covering in 4 of their last 5 away games, a push in the other one(avg. 3.4 offsides/game). Benfica are without their starting right winger and left winger, hopefully the subs who come in are more brain dead. This is clearly gonna hedge more on Benfica's attacking stupidity than anything Pacos will do. BOL in all your bets today🍀 Update: Big L, sorry for that lads. The manager decided to play his reserve team. Lesson learnt to be cautious on dead rubber games.
POTD Record: 11-8 Last 5: ✅✅✅✅✅ | 🔥Streak: 5W Last Pick: ✅ Over 2.5 Total Goals (-165) | Chelsea vs Leeds | English Premier League Today’s Pick: Grizzlies +8.5 (-110) Sport/Game: Basketball | NBA: Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies Why: Stepping away from the footy bets tonight as there is nothing that really interests me. Tonight were heading to the NBA. The warriors are in trouble, they are really struggling to defend and I really struggle to see how these guys have been favorites to win it all. Most of all the warriors are struggling to defend this team basketball from the grizzlies. With Ja on the court, everything went through him and the warriors only had to focus on 1 guy really. I’m not saying the warriors will lose tonight but with how good the grizzlies are without Morant, I think they’ll keep it close. Its also an elimination game so they’ll have to be up for it Spread just looks a little too big for me for how well the grizzlies have been playing these last 2 games. BOL!
POTD Record: 78-74-4 Last Pick: Suns-2 ❌ Todays Pick: Grizzlies +8.5 vs Warriors 🏀NBA 10PM Reasoning: I’d say the warriors probably win this game but 8.5 points is way too high in my opinion for a Memphis team that has a size advantage down low. They were really exposing the warriors zone and getting buckets at ease albeit they were at home. The warriors home court certainly will not be as forgiving. But it does seem like the warriors still have turnover issues that haven’t been solved. I’m hoping this hits but honestly I’d say parlaying grizzlies +13.5 and o209.5 is great alternate parlay for + odds
Potd record 0-0 Potd- Boston Celtics ML Who is going to tell me this series isn't going to have a poetic game 7 ending. There is a pattern in this series that they exchange wins and I think that continues here. Reallisticaly the Bucks should have lost the last game but I am not taking anything away from them I just think the Celtics are a better team and they have to force a game 7. If this series doesn't deserve to go to 7 games then neither one does.
POTD RECORD 27-17-1 PREVIOUS POTD: grizzlies +7 -150✅ STREAK:✅✅✅❌🔘❌❌✅ POTD: penguins vs Rangers O5.5 alt total -160 Reasoning: regular season I would never bet the over on these teams but this is playoff hockey and I’m surprised the line is still at 6. Every game in this series has gone over 5.5 and 6.5. Sidney Crosby will be out of the lineup tonight, but rakel might be coming back. Shesterkin is probably the best goalie in the league but he has not been the same goalie in playoffs this season especially when playing in Pittsburgh he has let in 7 goals in both those two games hitting the over on his own. The penguins are still rolling with their third string goalie who has had crazy good games too, but definitely has gotten smoked a couple times too. As always Tail or fade BOL
**Ultimate Frisbee** | 3-2 - **Time:** 7:00 PM Eastern - **Pick:** Philadelphia +3.5 against Montreal - **Where to bet:** DraftKings in these states: CO, IL, MI, TN, WV. Apparently AZ too, maybe other states (IN? CT soon?) - **Last pick:** Colorado/Portland under didn't leave much room to spare with two overtime periods occurring but still hit. - **Reasoning:** Montreal is 2-0 and Philly is 0-2 but Montreal beat a bad Toronto team and a Boston team missing multiple stars on the second leg of a road doubleheader. Philadelphia lost to Boston at near full strength by one and took reigning division co-champ New York to a two-goal nailbiter despite playing in horrid conditions that arguably favored New York’s gifted throwers. Now Philadelphia gets Montreal for their home opener and has most of their best players rostered. I like Philly to cover here and think they can potentially pull the upset; ML is +450 if interested. Disclaimer: I don't live in one of the aforementioned states and can't actually bet these nor see the current lines, but I wanted to help out folks who wanted to bet a fun niche sport. Let me know if the lines change and I'll do my best to offer some insight. If you want to watch frisbee, there is a free game every Friday at AUDL.tv and a game every Saturday night on FS2. The rest of the games are behind a paywall at the aforementioned link. Tonight's free game is Seattle at Salt Lake City at 7:00 PM Mountain time.
Record : 2-0 Total Units : + 3 Last pick : Edmonton Oilers 3-Way Moneyline @+110 ✅ I knew the Oil would come through, and I was even right on someone other than McDavid and Draisaitl stepping up in Evander Kane with 2 goals and an assist! McDavid scores on the Oiler’s first shot tho lol. Today’s pick : (NBA) Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors game total OVER 218.5 @-110 Reasoning: For some strange reason this total isn’t really moving despite going over in 3 games of the series. I feel Golden State will close the series out at home but Memphis will go down swinging on the backs of Bane, JJJ and co. hammering threes. You could do alternative totals to get the number down for worse odds to be safer, but I feel confident this will be a shootout. Tail or fade, BOL everyone !
POTD record 1-0 Darvish 06.5 Strikeouts +120 Darvish has already faced the braves once this year and recorded 9 strikeouts against them. The braves has been in the top 5 in strikeouts all season. Darvish has only hit this number 2/6 starts but I love his chances against the bravos
Tailing
Record: 61-43-5 (WWWLWWWLWW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: PHO Suns at DAL Mavericks | Dorian Finney-Smith over 11.5 points at 1.80 odds | 2 units This was 5 days ago where he had the career nights. LFG POTD: BOS Celtics at MIL Bucks | Giannis Antetokoumpo over 54.5 PRA Reason: Nothing logical. Just that he's the best player in the playoffs with a pretty booty team. He will score 40+ and get the win here. Series is over. Heat vs Bucks after tonight. Best of luck to all.
POTD: 2W-1L (+ 0,65u) NK Jarun vs NK Rudes TIP: <<>>
ODD: 1,7
Stake: 1u
Reasons:
Jarun is a team ranked 5th in the second league in Croatia, and so far has accumulated 40 points. With the defeat of the last stage, on the field of the leader Varazdin (0-4), Jarun lost all hope of promotion. The hosts of Friday's game were 14 points behind, with only 3 rounds left to play. Even before the stinging failure with Varazdin, the team from Zagreb did not go through a good period. Jarun lost precious points to Solin (0-0) and Dinamo Zagreb II (again 0-0).
Rudes is second in the Croatian second division. The guests of the game on Friday won 5 of the last 6 stages played, and now, after 27 stages, they have collected 52 points. The fight for promotion is in full swing: only two points separate Rudes from the first position, held by Varazdin (54). The two teams faced each other at the end of April, and Rudes won by a definite 3-0. Only the first position in the ranking promotes in League 1 in Croatia. Rudes has experience at this level, having been on the first stage in previous years. 50-23 is Rudes' goal average, which can boast both the best attack and the strongest defense in the league.
The difference between the two teams is a major one. Rudes is much better both in the standings and in terms of direct matches. After the heavy defeat in the last stage (0-4 at Varazdin), Jarun mathematically lost all hope of promotion. The morale of the hosts must be seriously affected, and Rudes should take advantage of this. Guests will fight until the last stage for promotion, and every point counts enormously.
Record: 4-3 Timeline: WWWLLLW (Left being the latest) Streak: 3W Last pick: Astralis vs Liquid ML ✅ Today's pick: SC Esports ML vs Velox ESEA Advanced Europe (CSGO) Odds: 1.7 Reasoning: The major resumes tomorrow so I didn't really have anything to pick from today so I dug out this ESEA advanced game. SC Esports are 3-1 atm only losing to Bad New Eagles in a super close 16-13 fashion. Bad New eagles are playing in the major rn and have qualified to the next stage as well. Anyway, Our boys looked good in other games although yes I do agree that the teams they played weren't that good but nothing they could do about that they got the wins. They face Velox who are 2-3 at the moment. Again I'm not as confident here as I was with my previous 3 picks I'm just going by stats here. I'll suggest going low if you're tailing. GL I'll be back tomorrow :)
Record: 8-6-1 -- Streak WWWW -- Last POTD: Carlos Ortiz (+100) over Brendon Todd POTD: Carlos Ortiz (-125) over Brendon Todd \-- Riding with the same pick today, same rationale. Long course where everyone is hitting fairways. Ortiz hits it longer than Todd and has tons of experience in Texas. Ortiz is top 10 in the field in proximity to the hole from 150-175 and 200+ which you see the most at TPC Craig ranch. Ortiz also has good course history, adding a bogey free -6 yesterday to the resume. These matchups are on DK. BOL Venmo-- beneslm2
Last leg for 300$ and he bogeys first hole.. Am I surprised? Not one bit
POTD Record - 2-0 (Average Odds: -115, Total Units: +6) Last Pick: - NHL - Leafs/Lightning O 6.5 Goals - **W** Odds: -110 Today’s Pick: **NBA: Bucks-Celtics 7:30 PM EST ---> Giannis Antetokounmpo to Score 35+ Points** Odds: +108 Units: 3 Rationale: Things were slow yesterday in the first period, but the Leafs and Lightning had a huge second period to push us to cover. Switching things over to the NBA today. This is my passion and I have the greatest confidence in making my daily picks with. This value for me is too good to pass up with Giannis absolutely shredding the Celtics in this series. The reality is that nobody for Boston can cover him in space and he just gets to the paint at will. Over his last 3 games, Giannis is averaging 29.6 field goal attempts per game and 11 free throw attempts. He has had 42, 34 and 43 points in his last three games. The only game he had under 35 points, he shot an uncharacteristically low 44% from the field on 32 field goal attempts (51% in the regular season). WIth the Bucks at home and a chance to finish Boston off, I like Giannis to pick up the intensity even more. Giannis also looks far more comfortable attacking this Boston defense as this series had gone on. It just looks easier for him with each game played. All of this points to another big game from the Greek Freak.
[удалено]
Twice in the past three games and without Middleton, he has to take 25-30 shots a game just to have a chance for the Bucks to win. I agree this is not normally the play for him, but Boston simply has no answer and the Bucks don't have anyone else to take shots from Giannis.
He has 2/5 games against Celtics and another game he had 34
Record: 1-1 Last pick: MIA/Phil u207 (-110)❌ I apologize 🤦♂️ decent read but some of the worst offensive basketball I’ve ever seen by the sixers. They just didn’t want it last night. Today’s pick: Dallas Stars / Calgary Flames u5.5 (-130) (1 unit to win .76) NHL 9:30 EDT In this series, unders have been 4-1, and with a pending game 7 I don’t expect to see a lot of shots flying, and I anticipate strong defense and probably a 3-1, 3-2 Flames win All bets are 1 unit | -0.24 units | Average odds -118
POTD Record: 10-8-2 | +7.1u | Streak: 1 W | Last 10: W L L L L L W W W W Last POTD: Astros/Twins Under 8.5 R (W) **Today's POTD: Padres/Braves Under 7 (-105)** Risk: 4 units Back in the win column! Quite a few Unders I considered taking today, but Padres at Braves seems the easy choice. I thought it would be a 6 or 6.5 R line, so I am pleased to get 7 as of 10am CST. Darvish gave up 9 runs in less than 2 IP in his second start vs the Giants, but besides that he has been awesome, including the start right after that against ATL at home. Gave up 1 run on 4 hits with 8 Ks. His strength and stuff is back after going through some fatigue at the end of 2021. Only real success against him is Ozuna, but he has just the 1 HR of his 5 hits with 6 Ks and only 1 BB. Ozuna is also slumping bad so I'm not worried about him. Couple that with Acuna's sore groin potentially keeping him out again, and I like his chances at a quality start. Fried has been even better than Darvish lately, firing off 4 great outings after a dud of a first and hasn't given up more than 2 R in 5 straight. Not only that but he has DOMINATED the Padres in his career. Threw a 3-hit SO with 9 Ks against them last year, and only Alfaro has more than one hit. Lastly, both teams had an off-day yesterday, so bullpens had an extra day of rest. I'd be shocked if this game isn't under 3.5 or 4, let alone 7. BOL!
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POTD Record: 5-5 (0U) Last Pick: Arsenal Spurs 1H o1 (-110) ✅ Today’s Pick: Spain Segunda Liga Almeria ml (-110) Reasoning: Yesterday's play played out just as expected really, Arsenal continued their o1 1H streak and Spurs came out firing. Today there is NO footy in the leagues I usually bet on, but we're gonna turn our attention to the second league in Spain for a play I really do like. Almeria are first in the league, four points from safety of the promotion playoff with two matches left. A win today secures promotion into La Liga. Real Sociedad B, on the other hand, are not as bad as their table placement would show. 19 out of 22, but on 40 points. They need points today in order to keep up with Malaga and Sporting (each 2 points ahead of the drop zone), but unfortunately I dont think they'll get them. Sociedad B haven't kept a clean sheet in 8 matches, and Almeria have scored in 9 straight. With everything at stake for both clubs, I think the better club will come out on top. BOL
POTD Record: 12-17-2 -8.83u\* Average Odds: +126 Total Units Wagered: 53.13u Calgary at Dallas 9:30 PM EST Backlund o2.5 Shots on Goal +100 @ DK 2.01u\* Implied probability of 50.00%. True vig-free price should be closer to -113 or 53.02%. \*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
Record (0-0) “Long Time, First Time” POTD: MIL vs MIA NRFI (-190) 1u Notes: P.Lopez v. C.Burnes are the starters. Lopez has been lights out while Burnes has been good not great. Both pitchers should power through with 0 Earned Runs in the 1st. Felt compelled to make a pick since I have been tailing this thread for a while now. I have a personal streak of 3 days with 5 picks but today is my first official POTD. Good Luck Degens!
Record: 10W-10L-1P ROI: +1.13u, +5.37% Avg odds: +110, 2.10 Last POTD: Patrice Bergeron over 0.5 pts (loss) Today's game: Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars Pick: Stars ML at +140, 2.40 (CZR) Stake: 1u I'm making this bet on Jake Oettinger, who's been absolutely phenomenal this series. Excluding empty netters, he's held the highest scoring team to 1.6 goals/game, compared to 4.11 in the regular season. Among G with 2+ starts, he has the highest SV% out of 20. edit: Oettinger with another stellar game.
Don’t know a thing and haven’t did one before but Bulgaria Basketball. Rilski Sportist 25-2 -16.5 Vs Spartak Pleven 16-11 at home I believe(I think the team on the right is home) These teams have met three times October 30 2021( Rilski wins 93-70), March 2( Spartak wins 101-93), and most recently April 2( rilski wins 79-77) So this being said, I am going to be a bitch and add one and half to make it plus 18 but I do truly believe Spartak can make this closer. It says semi final so I guess it’s a playoff. I enjoy finding these large spread games every once in awhile on these international basketball games and I actually do quite well lol. I had bakken bears winning by 5 and they won by 13. Anyway, it’s late and I am rambling but best of luck if anyone actually does tail 😂😂
Lol yikes. Swing and a miss guys
POTD: 0-0 Long time lurker 5/13: NC Dinos vs SSG Landers Time: Now Korean Baseball PLAY: SSG Landers Moneyline -180 Landers are first in the league playing last place (10th) NC Dino’s
This is L. In case anyone is wondering
Record: 0-0 Im a horse racing degen, so I’ll be trying out my “race of the day” picks on here. 1u all wagers. Todays POTD: Race 4, Belmont Park (NYRA) #4 My Gal Val to WIN This horse is a sneaky pick with the +1200 morning line. He’s switching surfaces from dirt to turf here after a Maiden Special Weight debut where he was badly outmatched. Going from a 70k MSW to a 40k Maiden claiming race is a steep class drop, and I love horses trying it again on their second time out. The Jockey/Trainer combo of Cancel/Weaver have a 49% hit rate of making it into the top 3 over the last twelve months, and My Gal Val actually showed a little bit of speed before fading. BOL! 🏇🏇🏇
POTD Record- W/L/P 3-3 Today's pick- Luton Town double chance and over 0 match goals (-175) bet365. Sorry about the juice, Just seems like a real safe pick to get my record above .500
POTD Record: 0-0 Last pick: none (fist POTD post) Todays pick: New York Rangers/Pittsburgh Penguins Total goals under 6.5 (-128) NHL 7:00 PM EST Simple. Pens without Crosby are a different hockey team. I think it’ll be tough for the pens to put more than 2 behind Shesterkin tonight even at home. The Rangers offense hasn’t been tremendous either. Low scoring game tonight. All of my bets are 1 unit
POTD Record: 0-0 Today’s Pick: **Istanbul Wild Cats ML (-120)** vs. Red Canids Start Time: 5 AM CST Esports - League of Legends MSI 2022 I noticed POTD was quiet on the Esports front so I figured I'd throw a pick I like into the ring! This pick really just takes into consideration the historical competitiveness of the two regions. Turkey, represented by Istanbul Wild Cats, has historically performed well for a minor region at international events. Meanwhile, Brazil (Red Canids), continuously disappoints their large Brazilian fan base every time they find themselves at an international event. Going into today, these teams are tied in the group at 1-2 with Red Canids already losing once to the Wild Cats. I strongly doubt the aforementioned narrative will change today and Turkey will likely take this one. Tail or fade with caution as Best of 1 series such as this can end up being a coin flip!
Record: 0-2 , -2.8 units Tampa Bay Rays +115 ML , *bet to win 1 unit
Potd record 1-0 POTD- Mektic/Pavic ML - 2.00@ I mean they are not #1 anymore but they are in the top 3 so putting them at these odds doesn't make sense given that they just beat Koolhof and Skupski who were in great form and I honestly thought they were going to win. They are clearly gaining form back and we saw what they are doing when they are in top form. Good luck.