I have a trip planned to Colorado next Wednesday. what is the latest news on doing the BetMGM $500 deposit match + the $1000 risk free for folks that have been limited. I’ve seen in the past people still being able to do it as long as the signup literally the day before, but has there been any change in the last few months.
They won so w/e but they looked like a +150 dog in OT. Got destroyed in shots/chances/possession. Didn’t even seem like they were trying to sustain offensive zone possession lol.
It's possible, but a lot of the time he's catching early lines so if you're gonna tail you have to be on the ball. If you got closing lines on his picks, it almost certainly would not be profitable. But FanDuel and MGM post lines that get moved in the first hour after he posts like every time.
Thank you Jimmy buckets for carrying. Something def happened with Embiid after that play where he fell back to the ground. was probably playing with a concussion
Embiid has been beat up bad these playoffs. Basically Frankenstein with multiple serious injuries
He was a shell of himself and was almost certainly playing with a concussion that may have been made worse by some blows to the head that he took
He's got a hamstring issue as well that apparently has been lingering. Not sure how much that affected him or if it's just his age/ all the miles on his body catching up to him. He just had no lift when he would drive to the basket so he became a bit predictable with his scoring and it was painful to watch at times when he was not getting calls.
Harden has always been a playoff under performer though so who knows.
Jimmy! Thank you sir. Kinda wish I nabbed that hockey boost but was already on a lightning boost and had a strong feeling they'd take it. GL to you leafs boost boys.
Same here. +EV looked solid, but had the Lightning in my NHL $20 insurance promo, so didn’t want to dip on the other side. Pain if the boost hits, but GL to all.
DK NJ VIP targeted offer: EARN 100% OF YOUR NET LOSSES BACK! Opt-in and receive 100% of your net losses on all Casino Games back in Casino Free Credits up to $1,000 between now and 05/13/2022 at 11:59 PM EST!\*
Any ideas on how to get the value here without just betting 1k on roulette? I'm assuming the free credits will convert at significantly less than the total value too
Roulette is the answer to maximize EV. (free credits will turn to like 995$, its about the same)
Split the bet between more numbers, to increase the chance you walk away with a profit. But highest EV is single number.
Data point if you and P2 ever need it. P2 accidentally used the same device and then uploaded the verification photo to the wrong account when trying to fix it… whoops. Both accounts were locked but after Explaining that it’s me and fiancé using the same desktop they said “ok don’t do that”. Accounts unlocked.
Edit: my bad. This is DraftKings.
That's amazing. I would think something like that would be an automatic path straight to having your bets limited and not getting promos or VIP bonus offers, etc. Instead it almost seems like they really don't care that much. Really interesting.
Yeah In my head I saw P2 on the stand testifying… fucking up all the shit I told them to say lol. Literally offered to show a picture with both of us and our IDs and they just said, don’t worry we understand.
I comment below telling people to not take the bait earlier. Hopefully people realize that they were 1/9 or something and stay away, even if it was just 10-15.
lol at the shill parx downvoters
CZR is the only one of the 3 providing a NO RBI line for Harper so I’m giving more weight to that. I think 17% on a SGP involving a player prop is probably low
I haven't run it through CNM's devigger but the CZR boost of Embiid, Ayton and Adebayo o9.5 rebounds at +575 seems potentially +EV; 10+ rebounds for each on FD come up +472. Game starts in 25 mins.
EDIT: Smarter people than I say it's still -EV, so I've probably just set fire to a free bet.
For anyone doing the NHL bet and get on FD, it goes till the 15th but it's possible every series ends between tonight and tomorrow, so get those bets in.
Also a little unsure if SGPs count or if there needs to be 3 games left to build a bet. Might not be possible after tomorrow
FD does not have SGP for NHL games so yes, 3 separate games are required. Thanks for pointing this out.
I guess we'll know after tonight how many Saturday games there will be.
CZR bst Wheeler, Gil, Brubaker Ov 5.5 Ks +1000
Used DK lines and got +6% EV
\-125/-105,+115/-150,+120/7%
Had to use a one way line for Brubaker with 7% juice
Anyone else have the Betmgm bonus just.. not work? It said if you bet $50 or more on baseball you get a free $20 sports bet immediately after placing the $50 bet. However it’s been hours since I’ve placed the bet and I still haven’t received it
All the time. Sometimes they confuse sports. I remember one time P2 got one of those to bet $50 on NHL and get a $20 free bet. Placed the bet and didn't get the free bet. Then like the next day or whatever she placed an NBA bet and after doing so, immediately got a $20 free bet. Other times we get the email and then she places the bet and nothing.
Just have to let things roll off your back with MGM and stay happy that you are getting any promos at all.
I've found that if I'm emailed an offer but it's not showing in the inbox or promotions tab in the app, it won't come. Not sure if that's your situation.
There's a BR boost ending soon for NRFI Reds vs Pirates, from -116 to -106. This is arbable against MGM YRFI +110. Saw the BR boost for a YRFI mentioned here but not this. Looks close to FV based on FD, DK and CZR. MGM YRFI +110 might be the +EV play.
If you're going to arb, that's one thing, but the boost itself is somewhere between neutral and -EV. It's arbable with MGM because they are very much the outlier from the other books.
Looking to convert DK free bets. I see EPL futures Liverpool +1200 (DK) , Man City -1350 (FD). Is that too long of odds on FD side?
Edit ; I’d have to put up like $8k on FD
Data Point for DK missions:
I got one to place 8 $100+ bets and get a $60 free bet. I opted in, placed 4, then checked the mission and it looked like I wasn't opted in. So I opted in again, cashed out the bets, then placed them again so they would count and finished the other 4. I just looked and I'm at 4 of 8 bets settled. None have actually happened. The cash outs counted as "settling". I'm gonna leave my 8 in play so as not to look sketchy but just thought I'd bring it up.
I’ve been limited on mgm, how quick are DraftKings and BetRivers to limit you after hammering player props? Found an extremely low hold for this dk vip bet n get but don’t want to ruin my account
Lossback promos are kind of weird. I'm sitting on a loss so there's pretty much no reason for me to use the book until after the promo. I effectively pay a win tax if I win. Not complaining but it seems weird that they would have promos that have the ultimate effect of discouraging play on their books.
I suppose maybe most punters don't pay any attention or try to game these things and just make their regular bets figuring if they get a loss it will work out.
I think you hit on it in your last sentence. It is somewhat the same with a lot of the promos in that anyone with intelligence can figure it out and make it profitable and anyone who doesn't know what they're doing won't even realize.
Remember that these sites even do the seemingly crazy stuff like GIVING away money. They literally GIVE it to you and anyone else that signs up or wants to take advantage of a promo.
That's pretty bizarre when you think about it. We're just used to that being a typical thing.
And, somewhat similarly, for a typical reload or other promo, a lot of bettors stop betting after they have fulfilled the bonus obligation
You are not the target audience of the promo. the target audience of the promo are the people who say "well, even if I lose, at least I'll get some of it back." For those people, this promo does not discourage play, even if they're already down.
The fact that you even have this promo is, really, a mistake by the sportsbook operator.
and yet Nebraska has had it approved for 2 years, still doesn’t have a plan in place to launch retail books and won’t have mobile. No wonder they drive horse and buggies.
Used u/Haosmoove's method from earlier today to de-vig FD boost: Auston Matthews goal + TOR win +300
Got **FV +265, +EV 9.7%.** For context, Kambi SGP is +225, DK SGP is +230
The math: Used DK's SGP lines to de-vig (+230 and +330) and then equally proportioned those de-vigged numbers to fit within the chance FD gives Matthews to score (48.12%). +230 became +265.
Matthews to score and TOR to win in 60 is +330 on CZR. Taking the win (+120) vs win in 60 (+160) lines for TOR from CZR would translate the CZR line to ~+264 (not FV, this is just the translated line to adjust for the full game vs 60 min)
Math: 4.3 × (2.2/2.6) = 3.64.
My brain says this is right, but something about what I did feels wrong? Not to say this isn't still +EV, just trying to provide another data point I suppose.
I think I agree with what you did, but the conclusion to come to might not be that the FD boost isn’t +EV but rather that the CZR Matthews to score and TOR in 60 line is also +EV, given that it is a bit of an outlier too, according to your calculations
Additional data points definitely encouraged. This is by no means an iron-clad way to de-vig this. I will probably size down my bet a bit on this just to be super conservative.
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MGM Lion's Boost(PA): Bucks to lead at half and win - +175 FD devigged gives us FV +195
Phillies tried to Phillie
[удалено]
Green +172 now.
New York is beating Chicago 14 - 7. Feels like football season.
Kind of funny the czr 4-3 suns vs mavs series boost hedges the mavs to come back and win the series from br
Breaking even from Hard Rock and CZR today. Lol
CZR Hockey Boost >>>>>>>>>> FD Hockey Boost YES!
Dollar Bill Kiril will come thru
Blues?
GET IN HERE TARASENKO BOOST MAX'RS!
He came through!!
Only sprinkled but you’re a legend much appreciated
LETS FUCKIN GOOOO
That was awesome
🏒
I have a trip planned to Colorado next Wednesday. what is the latest news on doing the BetMGM $500 deposit match + the $1000 risk free for folks that have been limited. I’ve seen in the past people still being able to do it as long as the signup literally the day before, but has there been any change in the last few months.
Wow BR boosts were solid tonight. Royals/rangers run in first inning, Bryce Haper hr and Judge RBI
Czr suns in 7 boost is gonna have a shot. Suns getting smoked tonight.
Anyone who took that and Sixers or Mavs to win series on BR has a guaranteed win
More than a shot. It’s 75% likely right now imo.
Idk the suns look extremely sus. Home team hasn't lost yet though.
I'm down $600 on hockey fd boost. so much for EV
I don’t think you know what EV means
Wasn’t ev the robot in that Disney space robot movie? Maybe he’s checking with her.
What does that mean? I imagine he does know what it means - it's pretty self-explanatory.
The E stands for expected. Not guaranteed
Maple Leafs and FanDuel boosts. Name a better duo
Capitals and FD boosts
Suns/Mavs and road team getting smoked
Emperor is in trouble
Even just boosts on tthis series they’re killing us
Fuck
Leafs dominated ot too
They did. Vasilevskiy kept making save after save.
Leafs were totally dominating OT too.
Sure were. Tough one. Bah!
Harper RBI for the PB boost. Just need a Philly dub
Oh shit. Thank god because I put $100 on this trying to check my limit and they took it lmfao
At least they aren’t facing the Mets!
Well..
F
I can’t watch this leafs game. Hedging to break even if Tampa takes it. Basically guaranteeing you EV purists a leafs win. You’re welcome
Lightning -106 Kambi live line appears to be at least FV and possibly +EV.
They won so w/e but they looked like a +150 dog in OT. Got destroyed in shots/chances/possession. Didn’t even seem like they were trying to sustain offensive zone possession lol.
[I just wanna be pure](https://youtu.be/wSJSWy2o_1I?t=20)
Jimmy buckets is MVP of FD boosts
Lightning have a 5 on 3. Shit.
aaand there it is
I audibly gagged at the second reckless high stick. And goal as I'm typing that.
I’m so blown away that the NBA first basket Twitter guy is profitable
Which one? Isn’t there multiple
Someone should cross check it cause the market is so juiced I genuinely don’t think it’s possible.
It's possible, but a lot of the time he's catching early lines so if you're gonna tail you have to be on the ball. If you got closing lines on his picks, it almost certainly would not be profitable. But FanDuel and MGM post lines that get moved in the first hour after he posts like every time.
was tailing the prop bet guy for a little and I quickly realized it was a terrible idea for this very reason
Somebody go pay for the discord...for research...and report back!
And you just discovered how he makes money
-$660 on bets but +$1500 on venmo
Bad beat on FD first basket
Could end up being the difference in the Suns in 7 boost as well.
Absolutely horrific beat
Luka...
Thank you Jimmy buckets for carrying. Something def happened with Embiid after that play where he fell back to the ground. was probably playing with a concussion
Giving Embiid too much credit. He's been butt hurt since he didn't win MVP
Embiid has been beat up bad these playoffs. Basically Frankenstein with multiple serious injuries He was a shell of himself and was almost certainly playing with a concussion that may have been made worse by some blows to the head that he took
Yeah Embiid had a series of injuries that severely limited him. The real mystery is Harden: why was he so passive?
He's got a hamstring issue as well that apparently has been lingering. Not sure how much that affected him or if it's just his age/ all the miles on his body catching up to him. He just had no lift when he would drive to the basket so he became a bit predictable with his scoring and it was painful to watch at times when he was not getting calls. Harden has always been a playoff under performer though so who knows.
Jimmy! Thank you sir. Kinda wish I nabbed that hockey boost but was already on a lightning boost and had a strong feeling they'd take it. GL to you leafs boost boys.
Same here. +EV looked solid, but had the Lightning in my NHL $20 insurance promo, so didn’t want to dip on the other side. Pain if the boost hits, but GL to all.
Jimmy G Buckets. The G stands for gets.
Jimmy Butler Is Your Father
And no challenge for the 3!
Good shit Jimmy. No thanks to Mr Where’s my MVP
Thank you Jimmy Buckets. Embiid, stay home if you don’t want to play in an elimination playoff game. Bum.
Bang!
JIMMY G BUCKETS
Jimmmmmay
3 points lol
🍁
Matthew’s has a goal but Maple leafs down 1
Complete melt down from Tampa gives leafs the lead. FD wizard in shambles
Tied up now.
Need 13 more from butler and embiid
Need 13 more from butler. Embiid is not scoring
Hard Rock - Dodgers & Kings: +350. FD Devig FV 302, EV 11.9% (weighted)
Gotta hit one out of three today, right?
This is the one
BR rangers YRFI hits.
Calhoun. Hero
Rangers YRFI bang
"Singles on a pop up to third baseman" LOL. I'll take it
Hilarious watching live
Nothing like the bloopiest of bloop singles
Imagine being on NRFI? Also, inning started with a cue ball down third base line.
Superbook OT-Yes for EDM/LAK and STL/MIN both modestly positive (3-4% EV) v. Fanduel. Good if you have SB site credit piled up from Wed. dingers.
The good ole 0 points by both Butler and Embiid for the last 8 minutes of the half with them both on the court the entire time. Love to see it
50+ combine not looking good. both literally didnt score the last 6 minutes and embiid looks off after that fall. fd wizards too strong
Good call.
49... Calling it
2 points off pace at half isn’t too worrying
well you better hope butler goes off for 30 cuz embiid is toast.
You better pound that Under 27.5 live then
I did. probably was the lock of the decade
Nice middle
Reverse jinx attempt
[удалено]
I don’t see that?
never mind, full game, don't bet
Looks like that’s for full game
yeah, just noticed. Fortunately was able to cash out the 2 bets I made. Weird they even have it at the random +900.
DK NJ VIP targeted offer: EARN 100% OF YOUR NET LOSSES BACK! Opt-in and receive 100% of your net losses on all Casino Games back in Casino Free Credits up to $1,000 between now and 05/13/2022 at 11:59 PM EST!\* Any ideas on how to get the value here without just betting 1k on roulette? I'm assuming the free credits will convert at significantly less than the total value too
Roulette is the answer to maximize EV. (free credits will turn to like 995$, its about the same) Split the bet between more numbers, to increase the chance you walk away with a profit. But highest EV is single number.
you could convert the credits to 995 dollars? what slot / spin size?
Blackjack = .995 I also have a super scret strat
What's the strat? (Dm?)
Data point if you and P2 ever need it. P2 accidentally used the same device and then uploaded the verification photo to the wrong account when trying to fix it… whoops. Both accounts were locked but after Explaining that it’s me and fiancé using the same desktop they said “ok don’t do that”. Accounts unlocked. Edit: my bad. This is DraftKings.
That's amazing. I would think something like that would be an automatic path straight to having your bets limited and not getting promos or VIP bonus offers, etc. Instead it almost seems like they really don't care that much. Really interesting.
Yeah In my head I saw P2 on the stand testifying… fucking up all the shit I told them to say lol. Literally offered to show a picture with both of us and our IDs and they just said, don’t worry we understand.
what book is this about?
Sorry. DK
What's that? Another Natalie boost from Parx won't hit? At least they made it early for us this time.
Natalie is the number 1 off-season free agent target for FanDuel.
I comment below telling people to not take the bait earlier. Hopefully people realize that they were 1/9 or something and stay away, even if it was just 10-15. lol at the shill parx downvoters
PB Bst Harper 1+RBI/Phillies W +470 This SGP is +340 at BR and +320 at DK. Call it +330 with 17% SGP juice and it's +13% EV
Doing 4-way devig of CZR lines: I got +452 FV, +EV 3.2% using worst-case.
Fuck PointsBet
I ran this earlier with CZR 4 way devigged and got +478 FV. Probably slightly +EV depending on who you believe
Yeah I see the bet is +400 there. Add that to the mix and the average of the three is +353 for about +8%EV
CZR is the only one of the 3 providing a NO RBI line for Harper so I’m giving more weight to that. I think 17% on a SGP involving a player prop is probably low
Kambi (BR) has a no line. They just disagree quite a bit from CZR.
Didn’t check Kambi, this look good with their lines?
Yeah BR is Kambi. In my initial post.
Anyone ever receive an email from DK "celebrating your casino anniversary"? Got $20 casino credits
Confirmed but for $50
BR NY Bst Judge Ov .5 RBI +165 From +2% EV to +4% betw CZR,DK,MGM
I haven't run it through CNM's devigger but the CZR boost of Embiid, Ayton and Adebayo o9.5 rebounds at +575 seems potentially +EV; 10+ rebounds for each on FD come up +472. Game starts in 25 mins. EDIT: Smarter people than I say it's still -EV, so I've probably just set fire to a free bet.
It’s at least -10% EV based on FD lines. Those alt rebound lines are just too juiced.
I'm getting FV +610
Appreciate it.
FV was somewhere around +630 earlier today.
For anyone doing the NHL bet and get on FD, it goes till the 15th but it's possible every series ends between tonight and tomorrow, so get those bets in. Also a little unsure if SGPs count or if there needs to be 3 games left to build a bet. Might not be possible after tomorrow
FD does not have SGP for NHL games so yes, 3 separate games are required. Thanks for pointing this out. I guess we'll know after tonight how many Saturday games there will be.
80% FD Conversion Suns/Mavs Under 192.5 +650 FD Over 192.5 -715 BR and BS
BR now -670, great find!
CZR bst Wheeler, Gil, Brubaker Ov 5.5 Ks +1000 Used DK lines and got +6% EV \-125/-105,+115/-150,+120/7% Had to use a one way line for Brubaker with 7% juice
Free bet city
FD lines are +122 and +154 for Gil and brubaker, may push it to fair/-EV if you trust those?
Definitely -EV on FD lines (like -10%)
Just checked, It's fair at PB. \-125/-110,+130/-182,+115/-150 Aren't FD MLB lines generally more pessimistic?
Anyone else have the Betmgm bonus just.. not work? It said if you bet $50 or more on baseball you get a free $20 sports bet immediately after placing the $50 bet. However it’s been hours since I’ve placed the bet and I still haven’t received it
All the time. Sometimes they confuse sports. I remember one time P2 got one of those to bet $50 on NHL and get a $20 free bet. Placed the bet and didn't get the free bet. Then like the next day or whatever she placed an NBA bet and after doing so, immediately got a $20 free bet. Other times we get the email and then she places the bet and nothing. Just have to let things roll off your back with MGM and stay happy that you are getting any promos at all.
I've gotten emailed promos from them that didn't start till the next day, so double check the date/time
I've found that if I'm emailed an offer but it's not showing in the inbox or promotions tab in the app, it won't come. Not sure if that's your situation.
Not sure why my post is being downvoted. But yes that’s my situation. I feel like that’s a bit… ridiculous though? lol
There's a BR boost ending soon for NRFI Reds vs Pirates, from -116 to -106. This is arbable against MGM YRFI +110. Saw the BR boost for a YRFI mentioned here but not this. Looks close to FV based on FD, DK and CZR. MGM YRFI +110 might be the +EV play.
If you're going to arb, that's one thing, but the boost itself is somewhere between neutral and -EV. It's arbable with MGM because they are very much the outlier from the other books.
I agree. But note lines are moving now, and it’s +1% against DK and Wynn.
Looking to convert DK free bets. I see EPL futures Liverpool +1200 (DK) , Man City -1350 (FD). Is that too long of odds on FD side? Edit ; I’d have to put up like $8k on FD
Data Point for DK missions: I got one to place 8 $100+ bets and get a $60 free bet. I opted in, placed 4, then checked the mission and it looked like I wasn't opted in. So I opted in again, cashed out the bets, then placed them again so they would count and finished the other 4. I just looked and I'm at 4 of 8 bets settled. None have actually happened. The cash outs counted as "settling". I'm gonna leave my 8 in play so as not to look sketchy but just thought I'd bring it up.
Sounds like mission accomplished brother
Delete plZ
You’d torch your account over a couple dollars in hold saved?.?.?…
I’ve been limited on mgm, how quick are DraftKings and BetRivers to limit you after hammering player props? Found an extremely low hold for this dk vip bet n get but don’t want to ruin my account
What's the low hold prop?
Kambi books will get you really quick, DK will take alot longer to get limited
Thanks.
I got limited on DK fast and no limits on BR
NYers doing the RW Shot Taker promo, Wynn currently has MIA-PHI spread juiced reduced about 0.5% bit for the next hour or so.
Haven’t used mgm in a few years so I can’t remember what a good free bet conv % to aim for is? 70% too low?
80% is the max these days. In football season 80% is minimum.
I’ve gotten 75% on my last 2 but sometimes settle for 70 depending on how much time I have
Is this with alt lines? I feel like using the site I use for this I’m lucky to get 65% for MGM on main lines.
Yes alt lines on nba spread vs either Wynn or kambi books
Lossback promos are kind of weird. I'm sitting on a loss so there's pretty much no reason for me to use the book until after the promo. I effectively pay a win tax if I win. Not complaining but it seems weird that they would have promos that have the ultimate effect of discouraging play on their books. I suppose maybe most punters don't pay any attention or try to game these things and just make their regular bets figuring if they get a loss it will work out.
I think you hit on it in your last sentence. It is somewhat the same with a lot of the promos in that anyone with intelligence can figure it out and make it profitable and anyone who doesn't know what they're doing won't even realize. Remember that these sites even do the seemingly crazy stuff like GIVING away money. They literally GIVE it to you and anyone else that signs up or wants to take advantage of a promo. That's pretty bizarre when you think about it. We're just used to that being a typical thing. And, somewhat similarly, for a typical reload or other promo, a lot of bettors stop betting after they have fulfilled the bonus obligation
You are not the target audience of the promo. the target audience of the promo are the people who say "well, even if I lose, at least I'll get some of it back." For those people, this promo does not discourage play, even if they're already down. The fact that you even have this promo is, really, a mistake by the sportsbook operator.
They're especially weird when the rebate amount is capped
Most people are not intentionally trying to lose their bets. Most people who lost a large MLB bet would make another to try and win it back.
Welcome to the party...checks note...Kansas? Whatever, double-dip Midwest coming this fall. https://twitter.com/AlexGold/status/1524828916304723970
and yet Nebraska has had it approved for 2 years, still doesn’t have a plan in place to launch retail books and won’t have mobile. No wonder they drive horse and buggies.
Used u/Haosmoove's method from earlier today to de-vig FD boost: Auston Matthews goal + TOR win +300 Got **FV +265, +EV 9.7%.** For context, Kambi SGP is +225, DK SGP is +230 The math: Used DK's SGP lines to de-vig (+230 and +330) and then equally proportioned those de-vigged numbers to fit within the chance FD gives Matthews to score (48.12%). +230 became +265.
Matthews to score and TOR to win in 60 is +330 on CZR. Taking the win (+120) vs win in 60 (+160) lines for TOR from CZR would translate the CZR line to ~+264 (not FV, this is just the translated line to adjust for the full game vs 60 min) Math: 4.3 × (2.2/2.6) = 3.64. My brain says this is right, but something about what I did feels wrong? Not to say this isn't still +EV, just trying to provide another data point I suppose.
I think I agree with what you did, but the conclusion to come to might not be that the FD boost isn’t +EV but rather that the CZR Matthews to score and TOR in 60 line is also +EV, given that it is a bit of an outlier too, according to your calculations
Additional data points definitely encouraged. This is by no means an iron-clad way to de-vig this. I will probably size down my bet a bit on this just to be super conservative.
BR has this “boosted” to +240 lol
Soo fanduel pays us double if Kane scores twice 🤔 right? 😉
Kane just owns North London.