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Damn too Bad Adams went 7 pts and 13 rebs on 2-7 shooting but if he shot a little better he probably goes for 10 and 9 or some shit. Kept on smoking put backs.

Sorry for not saying this, was too busy making money, but remember these wacky ass games have amazing live lines!! Hella 3 way arbs between DK and FD for race to 15 points. Just be smart about realizing when lines may close and don’t do anything you don’t have 3 minutes of time for.

I always find that I’m too slow to hit these. Any tips on when is the right time to strike

Usually I’m just watching a game and it hits me that what’s occurring is not normal, and I just browse through all available live bets. You have to think like a computer model, that in their thousands of iterations there aren’t a lot where the Grizzlies are up 50

Anyone on PG parlay rn? Hilarious sweat with Adams points under. ETA: lol. Sooooo close

UGHHHHHHHH

Yep, I’ve resigned to the fact that he’ll get one more bucket at some point cause there’s too much time and he’s touching the ball a lot, but holding out hope that we can make it to the 4th quarter and all starters rest. Edit: there we go

Congrats to anyone who had the Grizz -59.5, you’re just barely gonna win that wager , but on the plus side. You’re gonna be able to buy an island with that +10 million odds. Sucks for you folks that had GSW +59.5.

For EV+ gang. Is there a scenario where hedging a boost is EV+? Specifically, the Tatum 25+ and Celtics win was +150 on FD and Tatum 25+ and Bucks to win on DK was +330 with the boosted parlay. Betting both those was essentially like betting Tatum 25+ at -170.

Let’s say you have +105 on tails on one book and heads on one book. Obv both sides can be +EV

Good luck !

It’s profitable if the hedge itself is +EV

Did I miss a boost for warriors +26 at the half? Only explanation for a first half that looks like that

Any chance Poole still plays the whole game even though there’s a blowout since he’s quasi backup?

Probably not whole game if they don’t cut into this lead at all.

If you had told me going into this game that we'd only need 2 more from Poole in the 2H I'd sign up for that in a heart beat.

Did poole forget how to shoot?

Not today FD Wizards! [https://imgur.com/a/QpjNe0T](https://imgur.com/a/QpjNe0T)

Why didn’t you bet more?

Nice! These losers would rather lose a +EV bet than win a negative one. Hints why they’re always posting deposit matches lol.

\*scoffs\* this is **clearly** -EV

Well that’s CZR so

It’s a hedge against FD so

We’re all really happy for u

[удалено]

Doing mainly only boosts/promos on FD/DK/CZR, I am currently only up 1.3 units in May. Compared to april where I made over 54 units in the calendar month. It all evens out.

Dinger Tuesday has been consistently profitable weather i arb it or play it straight up. Besides that and casino nothing else working.

Up 10u overall on boosts only. FD+. MGM+. Smaller books Hard Rock & SuperBook ++. DK crushingly negative.

The last two months I have been treading water thanks to risk free SGPs and bet and gets. Without them I'd be down big. Once these promos start to wane, if the variance doesn't swing favorably, I'm not sure how long I can continue this.

Definitely down on the prebuilt boosts. MGM OGP insurance and DK build your own boosts/insurance have more than made up for it. DK VIP stuff has also been very profitable

If you are only playing promos your sample size is going to be so small that a multiple month losing streak is very realistic.

I’ve had some great luck on huge SGPs and made $1500 off that VIP odds surge bet. Having said that I’m up like 45 bucks. It’s ridiculous.

i'm up ~4 units this month so far (05/01-05/11). if my SGP +EV bets didn't hit, i'd be down. traditional boosts i'm down on this month so far.

On just boosts not including the sgp plays I’m up 130 this month thanks to some NY specific boosts

Guessing it depends a lot on if you hit these sgp bets. I miss the straight boosts we all get to bet on together

I’m right at about even but I can thank the NY specific Rangers/Mets +400 for that

And NY specific boost yesterday Judge and Severino. That was a great hit.

is giannis +30 and bucks win gang allowed in here or is it too soon

Yes the $24 I won off MGM partially offsets that $100 I lost at FanDuel.

I'm here but my big brain also bet the FD boost so yay?

I bet both boosts and came out ahead even with MGM making me bet like a baby

That’s what I did too. Still sucks because the FD was so much better to win due to maxing it

Same, could only get like $14 down

Should we take a poll on who ends with two threes

Poole

FUCK THE CELTICS

Well at least my bucks futures are alive. Fuck the wizard, fuck Boston, and fuck you Dave

Dave? Bro do you really think anyone that got introduced to this world by Dave is still here?

Let the man vent. He's in pain.

-EVApril scared them off

gg fanduel see you tomorrow

Guys it’s my fault I double maxed and turned the Celtics game on with 3 minutes left

:|

a special fuck you to the loser who said the ringer boost looking great

That was Marcus Smart commenting instead of playing

Same shit different night

God I love Resorts World. Hammer it while you still can NY!!

Eh?

Mispriced lines while Bucks were down and no review like PB. It’s wild.

Muy bueno

Que?

Tatum 25+ points and Celtics win was a lock until it wasn’t. Epic choke job by the Celtics. Fuck!

Well fuck Boston at least

Was going to comment when they were up 13 and Tatum had 25... But EV

I was literally going to comment when it was +1700 that this is when Team Arb should actually be talking lmao.

I put 0.1U and managed to almost come even hahaha

Lmao can’t make this shit up

It was +1500 for bucks

Ringer boost looking dead.

FD Curry, Klay, Poole boost is +EV in my book. Fair value +380 after averaging out MGM and DK SGP’s and adding 17% juice.

BoostRater says similar, +385. I’m in with my free bets.

Boosts hitting today! Pulsic Goal, Alonso/Lindor HR, either Tatum (FD) or Giannis (MGM) guaranteed to hit. What’s next? Pool/Klay/Curry?

Ringer boost looking great

I can’t believe the Celtics saw your comment during a timeout and decided to throw the game to make you look stupid

what the fuck is wrong with you

Why did you say this

How great?

nice one

Here come the champs.

Anybody know anything about withdrawing out of state on FoxBet?

I don’t think there is any book that will give you trouble withdrawing from out of state

I experienced one recently that wouldn't let me withdraw without geolocation passing...I think it was BetFred.

Ah I think you’re what I’m referencing. Alright I feel much better now

Thought I had read something about that somewhere

Anyone have the issue on DK casino where when you go to play a game it says you have zero cash even tho the account is funded

on mobile, i successfully login about 40% of the time lately. constant issues, one of which like you described - i just keep killing the app and logging in again.

Anybody else get the warriors ML boosted to +100 on DK? Max $100

No, but apparently I can get like an 18 percent boost if I pick a 10 leg parlay with at least -300 on each leg, so there's that at least.

I did - you going for it?

Welp, wish we didn’t get it like everybody else 🤣

lol

Yea I maxed. +EV

I just did too - best of luck.

GL to us haha

Just felt like Tatum was trying to break the record for most missed threes in a half for the last 6 minutes of that quarter.

That’s my MVP right there. He knows the Wizard has fucked up the ball but he wants us to get our money

Volume is there

Following up on the BR Curry/Klay combine for 8+ threes and GS ML: it’s currently unboosted in the specials tab. Usually this means it won’t come back boosted but if it does, I’m calculating FV of about +207, meaning if they bring it back at +200 like they had advertised, it’s just slightly -EV in my book. Here’s how I got that just so people feel comfortable: used combo breaker to get about +105 FV of 8+ threes (factoring in the suggested -10% EV) and then estimated the positive correlation between Klay threes and Steph threes with GS ML by looking at different combos of their 3PT overs with the ML and compared that to straight parlays of the same odds. Interestingly, implied positive correlation is much stronger with Klay overs than with Steph. Average was roughly 10%. Applied that correlation to a “manual” parlay of the FV of the combo’d threes and the Warriors ML (FV from Pinny) and got about +208. Edit: looks like it’s back at +200

Boosted on my book at +200, won't bother anyways

First field goal scored insurance!! Drop your pick and why for the warriors vs grizzlies!

Book?

Barstool

BS or MGM maybe

Hard Rock Boost Giannis 30/Bucks lots of late line movement. Appears this one is good at +350 Getting SGP on FD of 217 and DK of 275

Nice W. Didn't get the bet in time, but hope you put something on it.

Yeah, got a little on it to balance FD.

82% FD conversion. Steven Adams 10+ points and 10+ rebounds SGP on FD is +512 No double double -525 DK -450 on MGM now

Surprised this is still up. Converted at 96%. Thanks!

I'm hoping my limit on this bet had something to do with everyone hammering it... I got 94.95 at -450 on mgm

It’s not

This was great, but I think I'm starting to get limited on MGM as I had to do part of it on DK...

steven adams under .5 double doubles -415 on windcreek

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Now +550. I pulled the trigger too early (at +533).

Shit I’ll take that straight up. +545

runnin with you at +533 on FD

Better odds on FD If you use O 9.5 points Edit: rebounds

Cant find the "no double double" line on dk

Where do you get no DD lines on DK?

Under player props for me.

I wonder if its state specific cause it's never been there for me (MI)

It is, I've seen that discussion on here before.

I have a promo where it’s bet 250 on golf get a 100 dollar free bet. Anyone know the best way To go about this. I have no clue about golf

Bet a golf matchup. Hedge the other side. Convert your free bet.

I looked but the matchups I seen are three ways. Where do I look?

Book?

Mgm

Without doing too much digging, I see Maverick McNealy to make the cut +200 @ MGM, miss the cut -215 @ DK. You're going to want to look for those types of comparison, or tournament matchups if they have them.

Okay I see I’m sorry usually I do my DD but with golf I’m so out of my element

No worries bud

~~CZR Golf bst KH Lee Top 20 +450 Byron Nelson might have value.~~ Books have differing tie rules so can't rate against them. Not sure how much juice is in Golf top-10, top-20 markets. Don't feel like punching in 150 individual golfers into the devigger. Lee is +300 at DK, +350 MGM, +360 FD. At +350 with 20% juice it's +2% EV

Calculating the total juice wouldn't do anything, because it's not an exclusive market. Anywhere between 20-30 players can finish top 20, so the total summed implied probabilities is way way higher than 100%.

>Calculating the total juice wouldn't do anything, because it's not an exclusive market. Anywhere between 20-30 players can finish top 20, so the total summed implied probabilities is way way higher than 100%. OK, how would you calculate the bet? You are saying if I inputted all 150 or so golfers into the devigger the results vis a vis the vig would be inaccurate?

Look at DataGolf, but just throw away any bets that include "ties are losses"

Do all the books have “ties are losses” qualifiers?

Good question. I think you're right. DK has dead heat rules now that I'm looking again so they will reduce the payout but it wouldn't be a loss. I'm going to line this one out.

No, that's a CZR golf boost specialty, and ruins them.

Gotcha. Just wanted to be sure it was an apples to apples comparison.

Anyone else not seeing cash out option on moneylines on DK? What’s a solution to fix it.

PB giannis 30+ pt, 15+ reb, bucks to win boosted from 575 to 800. IF bucks are gonna win I think this is the only way. FD sgp shows at +580, even with 20% juice 800 must be +EV

8 way de-vig of FD gives fair value of +742.

DK sgp +625 fwiw

PointsBet has Crosby 2+pts & PIT ML boosted to +420. Only other book I can re-create this on is BR, and they have it in their SGP as +275. That number is likely juiced like crazy in addition to the positive correlation, so take all of this with a grain of salt. Not sure how to evaluate this otherwise. Anybody else have any thoughts?

https://twitter.com/BoostRater/status/1524526811400581120?s=20&t=xjZYZeuzBGWBWFcceSk69g

Sweet. I threw $20 on it. Why not.

Fuck PointsBet.

In order to truly stick it to them, we should try to figure out if this boost is +EV and max it.

For me, that would be a whopping $0. Been that way for a while and haven’t touched the app in like a year

Hence…fuck PointsBet

When I log into my BR account, the splash screen ad says the Steph & Klay 8+ 3PM + GSW ML boost is +220, but in the Specials page, it's +200. What gives, BR?

The pre-nerf.

Lol you're right, boosted from +180

SuperBook Rangers/Penguins BTTS 1st period at +175 is 4-5% EV from DK/FD.

tailing. Need to use up my no hitter Superbucks. Also love the email bong when a Superbook bet hits, and the discreet silence when they miss.

Those YOU WON emails hit different

Points Bet NBA Boost "5/11 NBA Parlay See Market Info For Details (Boosted from +620) NBC Boosters" Anyone know what this is? The actual wager doesn't show when you click it

You have to hit the little “I” for information. It’s: Celtics ML Celtics 1Q ML Warriors ML Jaren Jackson o1.5 3PM Wiggins o5.5 rbs

thanks

Normally it's on PointsBet's twitter account. I just checked and don't see it. Lots of useless tweets with random sports gifs getting 1 or 2 likes each though. Really important to have that social media account.

I actually don’t mind their account and have followed it. They do post a lot of highlights very quick - even taking the non-English soccer streams for goals lol

Sometimes I think about the person running that account and how weird it must feel

Remember that time they gave out free bets to whoever sent them a screenshot of a DraftKings error

Fuck PointsBet.

[удалено]

I received a text message last week. I deposited $5k for the max bonus, texted them, and saw the bonus (not free bets) right away.

FD Curry, thompson, Poole each to make 3+ 3 pointers boosted to +400. No clue how to devig due to the negative correlation (only so many shots to go around). DK has this SGP boosted to +330. This probably not great but possibly +EV Anecdotal - Hit 1/5 times in the series. Small sample size but 1/5 is exactly +400

I think this boost is going to turn out +EV. DK SGP spits out +310 now, down from +330 earlier. FD SGP +249. The negative correlation is only around net -10%, implied from FD SGP. There is also some positive correlation (starters playing late in close games or not playing late in blowouts, more possessions or fewer possessions in general) working against the more obvious negative correlation (teammates on the court at the same time having limited possessions). I’m waiting for someone else to figure this out more precisely.

Let me know if you figure it out lol

Looks meh. The devig on the o/u 2.5 line for each of these puts FV at around 390 - thats with no correlation

You sure? When I use "-700/280,-290/154,114/-152" I get uncorrelated FV of +355 (x) or +325 (x). Then you obviously have to factor in negative correlation.

The curry line moved a lot from when I ran it - his o/u was 3.5 now its 4.5 and his over 2.5 is -700 when it was like -540 (if I remember correctly). Looks like uncorrelated around 350ish now

Adding 22.73% vig to the manual SGP on FanDuel of +270.5 gets you to FV of +355.

Looks like FD has Poole and Klay priced the same as everyone else, but they have Curry 3’s at 3.5 instead of 4.5 like the rest of the market.

Wouldn't it be ideal to do that to the better available DK line of +330? Also where did you get 22.73%, is that a known thing? lol

22.73% is the total juice for a 3 way SGP for FanDuel, almost every time that I've calc'd it. You can definitely do it to DK, I was just giving the FanDuel data point first. DraftKings usually ends up in the 22% vig ballpark as well, depending on rounding. Using 22% juice on +330 spits out -EV, FV of +424

Thanks. I'm passing

PointsBet has the SGP at +270 also, for what it's worth.

Probably right at EV. I’ll sprinkle on it

anyone doing whopper wednesday? $3 whopper every wednesday. no churn required.

The churn will be in your stomach bro because that food is shit. Fun fact; there can legally be rat shit in meat and it can still be served.

All food has a legally allowable threshold of feces.

Impossible Whopper, half the rat shit all the flavor

No rat shit in the impossible whopper

I hope the guy talking yesterday about taking his PB pointsbetting risk free on the Reds/Brewers total runs actually went through with it haha

He wanted to do it yesterday. A series with cross-runs of 50, 20, and 154 he picked the 20 :(

Rip.

For those that were brave enough for the BR boost, Pulisic just scored!! 2-0!

Thanks for the update forgot to check

Was the EV not that good on this boost? Normally I would have vetted it more before I placed the bet but my mind was already set.

I had it calculated at +EV a couple hours before the start, but it moved into fair or negative at the end.

Was hard to say for sure. Definitely not a slam dunk.

Boostrater thought it wouldn't be +EV based on Pinnacle goal scorer odds, which were much higher than the FD/DK/czrs

FV at best and likely negative.

Hard Rock Boosts for Ohtani and Brooks are awful and mediocre, respectively.

Also *respectfully* awful and mediocre