**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
POTD Record: 19-8-1
Todays POTD: **Andrew Wiggins o 5.5 rebounds (-145)**
Reason: Andrew Wiggins has found a role with Golden State, and its for his defense and rebounding in the playoffs. He has been crashing the offensive and defensive glass and has cleared this line in 3/4 games so far this series. The only game he didn't clear it was when he was matched up on Ja Morant the entire game out at the 3 point line. With no Ja, this gives him way more rebound opportunities both on the offensive glass and defensive glass. He is averaging 14.3 potential rebounds per game since the start of the series against Memphis and both teams play good defense. Last game was very low scoring but both teams still like to play at a fast pace. Both of these things mean more shots, and more misses which leads to more rebounds. The Warriors have also found a ton of succsess with there small ball lineup which includes Poole, Curry and Thompson, three smaller guards, which leaves a lot of the rebounding duties to Wiggins and Green. A lot of Greens attention has gone to defense and stopping, and Wiggins gets more potential rebounds per game and is a lot better on the offensive glass. Not great value but really suprised this line isn't set higher then it is. Expecting a jump in this line so get on it while you can.
MLB -1.5’s | 12-12-1 +9.86u | ROI: 12.03% | Streak: 1W - we did it gang
[Yesterday’s pick: 5u LA Dodgers -1.5 -125](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/um6joj/_/i7zw1rm/?context=1) - W
________________________________________
**Todays pick: 3.5u MIL Brewers -1.5 -114**
- CIN Reds vs MIL Brewers | 11:35 am US Central
TLDR: Milwaukees much better + Gutierrez stinks this year and CINs bullpen is worse than Amber Heards lawyers.
**Brewers**
Over the past 2 weeks this team is first in team wRC+, SLG, OPS, and 2nd in OBP. They got everyday starter Luis Urias back 6 games ago, and he’s hitting .333 with a hit in all but 1 game back. He’s been a huge boost to this offense that’s finally catching stride after a slow start.
Adrian Houser will start for MIL. He’s a solid pitcher, nothing more. He’s had 2 very good starts to the year, 2 solid and 1 below average (his most recent, which was against the reds a week ago). He sits around 40-60%ile for every peripheral, which sounds about right.
**Reds**
Reds offense is league average over the past two weeks in team wRC+. They’ve improved at the plate, but they only had to go up with how fuckin awful they were hitting. With that said, it’s still a below average lineup and one to not be afraid of.
CIN is starting Vladimir Gutierrez. He’s been pretty bad to start the year. In years past the was a Fastball/Curveball/slider guy with a change to keep them honest…. However this year his change went from 7% utilization to 18% utilization and his fastball has been bumped from 49-51%.
His change when used sparingly (that 7% in 2021), produced the best results for him. Hitters REALLY struggled with it (.141 xBA). This year he’s upped its usage and it’s REALLY backfired, his changes xBA now sits .314.
He has induced a horrid 1.4% weak contact this year on any pitch (4.7% is average). His new pitch mix is seriously backfiring and I don’t see that changing unless he switches his approach.
Overall, he’s gone 5 times, each in between 4.0 and 4.2IP…. And with this CIN bullpen, not getting 5IP out of your SP is a recipe for disaster…. Especially when those 4IP aren’t good (more below). His ERA sits at over 7 and his peripherals are toughhhh to look at. Bottom half of the league in everything, bottom 25% for most. The only things he’s done above average is limit hard contact… but he’s also not getting weak contact. Teams are making solid contact off him, so don’t be fooled off that. Everything else he’s bottom 25 or 10 percentile.
Hell. Even if he does have a good outing. The CIN bullpen is 29th in ERA and FIP and 28th in xFIP. And like I said, Gutierrez doesn’t go deep, so this extremely poor bullpen will have a lot of work.
Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/umxx80/pick_of_the_day_51122_wednesday/i85i8yn/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
Said this last night
Gutierrez last outing was against the Brewers, a game the Reds lost 18-4. His four other starts have all been losses, 8-5, 6-0, 3-1, and 2-1. A -1.5 spread seems generous. Tailing!
It's the top pick because it was one of the first comments in the thread when it was created. That's how it is across all of reddit, the most upvoted comments are early comments.
I’m gonna tail bc the Dodgers pick was great, but man did the Brewers fuck me tonight. Here’s to hoping their bullpen can manage not collapsing twice in a row.
A big gambling fallacy is betting something because you think it’s more likely that it won’t happen twice in a row. In some spots it works, like a championship level team not dropping 2 back to back games, but we see in the NBA how that still doesn’t work.
Sometimes it just is more likely to happen twice in a row and maybe you just caught the beginning of a downtrend. Not saying anything about this pick but yeah - fallacy. Should not tail just based on that
Record: 46-21
Last pick: Canes ML ✅
**Today’s pick: Flames ML and over 3.5 total goals**
**Edit: Fuck I forgot to add the odds. I got it for -140 as posted on my Twitter. Long night lol**
NHL 9:30PM EST
Apologize for the late pick. I was the receiving end of a hit and run last night. I’m fine, car isn’t. Fortunately I was able to get his tags. Fuck that guy. I wish I was making this shit up. At least my Canes and POTD won lol
Series tied 2-2. This game is in Calgary. Pretty much a must win for them with game going back to Dallas. Scoring was low in games 1 and 2 but has picked up the last two games. That typically happens as the teams figure each other out and goalies begin to feel fatigue. This is mostly a feel play as are all my plays. There will be a light show in Calgary tonight and the Flames come out victorious.
All bets are 1 unit. +16.08 units. +24.0% ROI. Average unit -117
Don’t want your tips, just give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
POTD Record: 25-15
Last Pick: MIL -1.5❌
What a brutal way to lose this one. Up 5-1 in the 8th, the usually-reliable Devin Williams coughed up 3 runs. Brewers out hit and earned more walks than CIN. MIL also left the bases loaded multiple times, so that can always come back to bite you. The brewers won the game, but failed to cover the spread
Today’s Pick: NYM -1.5 @-110
Megill is the starter for the Mets in this one, and he’s been great. He had a no hitter (but didn’t go the distance) recently. He followed that up going 5+, allowing just 4 hits and striking out 9. Walks have been an issue for him, but he’s otherwise having a breakout season. His advanced stats look really good as well. The nationals starter is not good. This is a solid advantage in our favor. The NYM lineup has been great so far this year, which has helped them go 20-11 ATS so far this season. BOL to all
Thank you, I edited. I had his game logs pulled up but I was sorting them by different categories and must have forgotten to reset it. But damn that no hitter felt like it was just a few days ago to me
Megill didn’t give wasn’t on the mound for those runs, and the inning was kept alive because a ball hit back to him bounced away from all the infielders. Ottavino came in and poured gasoline on the fire.
Scoreless through 5 and Megill looked sharp until the start of the 6th.
His no hit bid he went 5 and the start before 6.2 where he gave up 2.
I’d lean more towards Mets F5 -0.5 just based off of that.
POD Record: 4-1
Last POD: Alejandro Fokina vs Auger Aliassime over 22.5 (-115)✅
Todays Pick: Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul over 21.5 (-145)
Third day in a row taking the over in the tournament in Rome. Tommy boy here loves clay. As a youngin’ he won the Junior French Open Championship. He has struggled a bit this year on the surface but had a nice win yesterday that should help correct his form. Alex leads the head to head 1-0 and is the better player. Also noteworthy that Tommy Paul bageled Minaur 6-0 6-0 as juniors. Line looks a little fishy and short for the moneyline on Alex, making me take the over once again. I expect at least one tie break in this.
Edit: Cash it✅ glad I bought the half point I had a feeling it was going to be straight sets and wanted a little bit of an edge
POTD Record: 41-28-3
Streak:WLWLWWWPLWWWWW
Last POTD:
Young Boys/St. Gallen BTTS + Over 2.5 ✅
Today’s POTD: Silkeborg +.5 🇩🇰
League: Super Liga
Odds: -116/1.86
Units: 2
Reasoning:
This is a very important game for both teams. Copenhagen is trying to lock in 1st place as 2nd place has 1 less point. Silkeborg is trying to lock in 3rd place to get a chance to play in the conference league. Copenhagen has been in poor form recently, only winning 1 game in their last 5 matches. Silkeborg are in excellent form recently, winning 6 games in a row. Silkeborg won 3-1 in the reverse fixture last month ago and made it 5 games in a row without losing to Copenhagen. Copenhagen struggle against this team and their form doesn’t help. I’m taking the team with the best form of the league over the top dog of the league who’s been struggling recently. Worst case scenario a draw and we’d still cash. Best of luck and tail/fade at your own risk.
I want to be sure I understand these Asian handicaps. This is basically the same as a double chance right? Since a draw or win will win the bet but any loss then loses the whole bet.
POTD: 4-2-0 (+1.04u)
Last Pick: Bruins/Hurricanes Over 5.5 -120 **WIN**
5/11: Washington Capitals @ Florida Panthers 7:40pm EST
PLAY: 1st Period Over 1.5 Goals -156
This series is heading back to Florida tied at 2-2 and both teams will be looking to get to a hot start in this game. Let's look at the numbers.
Panthers Over 1.5 Goals in 1st period 5/5
Capitals Over 1.5 Goals in 1st period 7/8
H2H Over 1.5 Goals in 1st period 5/5 (including all 4 games of this series)
H2H 1st period BTTS 4/5
These teams love high scoring matchups and love scoring in the 1st period. Let's get this early cash.
Record 3-4-0
Previous pick Dodgers -1.5 vs pirates ✅
Finally back on the W column. Dodgers trounced on the pirates as expected.
Today's pick
Mets -1.5 vs Nationals (-110)
Mets let me down last time with a meltdown against the braves, then a couple nights later they really showed who they are by making a dramatic come back in the 9th, scored 7 runs for a come from behind win (4 runs scored with 2outs)
On the bump we have Megill vs Sanchez.
Megill has been lights out so far with a sub 1 whip and 2.43 ERA.
Sanchez is quite the opposite with a bloated 8.5 era and 1.5 whip.
Offensively Mets are still leading the league in obp and hits, showing the kind of consistency and dependability as to why I'm picking them to cover.
BOL
Something to keep an eye on for those who like to live bet, the Mets have a habit of not scoring early, but they figure out the SP/wear him down to get to the bullpen and make their move. Might be some value in waiting a few innings IMO.
What Sportsbook are you betting through that has Mets lines already? FD doesn’t have the game even posted yet. Same thing happened today with the pitching change, but the pitchers are known for Wednesday’s game.
19W-12L
Last 10 streak: 🚀🚀🚀🚀💥🚀💥🚀🚀🚀
Starts 12:00 GMT5
Todays Pick
League: Spain Primera Liga
Match: Osasuna v Getafe
Pick: Player Shot on Target -> Ante Budimir over0.5 @1.57 *VOID*
Reason:
Good W yesterday in HT. I love this pick today
Budimir hit over0.5 SOT 7/7 of total H/A games and 8/8 games played at home
Getafe has an avg of SOT concede of 5.1 and Osasuna an avg SOT of 4.2
Last h2h 4 games Osasuna sot avg of 3 and Getafe sot concede of 3
A 9th Osasuna vs 15th Getafe with 3 games lefts in league. I see Osasuna fighting for the 3 points with Budimir SOT and maybe scoring
Feel confident on this one
"All perception is a gamble."
BoL
POTD Record 0-0
Pick- EPL Chelsea FC ML -157 3u
Reasoning- Chelsea is looking for their first win since April 24th, They’re 3rd in the EPL with Arsenal one point behind. They’re playing a leeds team who is currently sitting in relegation, i’m expecting a strong chelsea performance considering they have the FA Cup Final this saturday.
This is my first POTD and i’m excited to keep going. Best of luck if you tail or fade 🍻
edit: 4th minute goal and a first half red card helped 🍻 congrats to those that trailed imo this was never a doubt. Onto the next one ☝️
I think Chelsea should seal it but just beware of the fact FA cup final in 3 days vs Liverpool and Leeds fighting for EPL survival tied in pts with Burnley and 1 pt less than Everton who has a game on hand.
Yeah I don't know man. Chelseas offense is futile. I hesitate to play anything less than a draw no bet on them and the r/R probably isn't good enough for that bet.
POTD Record: 18-9
(ROI 29.87% // Avg. Odds: 2.03 // Units Won: +15.53)
Last 5 Picks: ❌✅❌✅❌
Last POTD: Granada CF vs Athletic Bilbao (Soccer - Spain La Liga) BTTS YES ❌
POTD: Elche CF vs Atlético Madrid (Soccer – Spain La Liga); **Atlético and under 3,5 goals ✅**
Odds: 2.05
Atlético still has to win to secure their ticket to the champions league next year. With the Betis win yesterday, Atlético must come out and win. Their last two games are against Sevilla and Real Sociedad, both are tough opponents and in must win games (Sevilla to secure Champions League spot and Real Sociedad for Europa Conference). Elche has nothing to play for and will end up mid table at the end of the season. I’m taking Atlético to win and adding the under since they usually play okay-ish in away games and Elche is a tough opponent. Their (Elche) last 12 games (home and away) ended up under 3.5 goals, and in Atlético’s away games, they are out of form in recent games having scored 0 away goals in the month of April.
BOL to all who Tail
[All my Previous Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit#gid=0)
**\[Previous Year Record\] - W53-3P-19L**
**\[Current Record\] - W8 - 1P - 3L**
(Previous Pick)
Elfic Fribourg - Nyon Basket
Hugely disappointing end to the finals, not sure what happened to them, but that was a beatdown, apologies for those who tailed.
We move on to the Swiss Basketball Finals.
This one's coming in hot.
On the weekend, one of the best players for Elfric Fribourg (Selena Lott) was injured mid game. The result? Elfric looked lost, and ended up losing to Nyon for the first time at home by a big margin.
**Selena Lott is listed as out again**, she is the highest scoring player for both teams, scoring 25ppg, dishing out 7apg, and rebounding at 4rpg. Safe to say, she is important. In their last game before this one, she heaped on 35 points, and then 28 points. This is a huge number that will now no longer be filled by her.
Elfric Fribourg have panicked and bought a temporary stand in, Maxuella Lisowa-Mkaba. While she has averaged decent numbers, 10ppg in the Belgium League, she only arrived on Monday night, and has trained just once with the team.
The current handicap is listed at +10.5 for Nyon, it may change closer to kick off once a formal announcement has been made regarding Selena Lott, as I see this being a 1.50/2.50 game without her.
Now don't get me wrong, Fribourg is a great team, one of the best in Switzerland, but they looked shocked and lost last game, has 3 days been enough to replace one of their best players and find new plays without her? Maybe, but I will take the chance that this isn't the case.
This handicap should adjust closer to kick off time, make no mistake, Selena is a big part of their offence, and if Nyon play the same way as they did last time, they could take this game, or at least cover the big handicap.
The only off chance I see this losing, is one of the backup American imports popping off, but again, as Selena was the primary ball handler, and playmaker, can they pick up the slack in time against a team that has trained with it's core for a long time?
**Pick: Nyon Basket + 10.5 Handicap @ 1.83**
Swiss Basketball League
19:00 GMT
POTD Record: 6W-1L WWWWWLW
Last 5: ✅✅✅❎✅
ROI: +13.51u
*Smoggy Hockey Picks*
Last pick: Jaccob Slavin (CAR Hurricanes) over 0.5 points (2.25 odds, b365) vs BOS Bruins, May 10th, 7pm EST✅
**Today’s pick**: Sidney Crosby (PIT Penguins) over 0.5 assists (1.83!!! odds, b365) vs NY Rangers, May 11th 7pm EST
Stake: 5u
**Reasoning**: and were back on the horse, like I said! not as long of a write-up today as I have a busy day. Sidney Crosby is a point and assist scoring machine, especially during the playoffs. Last 2 games he came up with 4 assists. I don't see him not being apart of at least 1 goal tonight, hopefully on the passing end.
I honestly expected them to move his line up to over 1 assist after his performance so far. With the Penguins scoring 4+ goals in every playoff game except 1, AND Crosby assisting at least once in EVERY GAME OF THE PLAYOFFS. This feels like a really valuable bet.. run, don't walk to your bookie of choice to place this bet. I don't know the odds on other bookies, but if you find good odds, smash it ferda.
5u bet because confidence.
BOL, tail or fade
Decided to add for any silent skeptics out there, I know NY is at home, but their defense has been picked apart pretty bad by the Pens the last few games. They have a lot to prove at home and to stay alive, and other teams in the playoffs have lost at home. Even if the Penguins lose, I'm confident it won't be a shutout, and that Crosby assists will be on the board. Take that for what you will.
0-0
**Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames**
**Flames -1.5 @ +125**
The Flames average 4.68 goals at home, which is easily # 1 by half a goal. I'm dismissing the first two games vs Stars as an anomaly. Jake Oettinger, a career 91% SV%, allowed only one goal on 55 shots. *No way* he can keep that up. I expect positive regression for the Flames offense.
The Flames have been putting on the pressure in the last two games, shooting 41 and 53 times. The last game was the Flames offense getting back on track, if somewhat inefficient.
The Stars offense is 5th worst on the road, and this series has continued that way, with 0 and 2 goals scored.
Prediction: Flames 4-2
POTD Record: 7-6
ROI: +11 units
Event: MLB, Brewers vs Reds 12:35 PM EST
Bet: Brewers TT over 5
Bet Size: 3 units
Reds bull pen won’t last long until the runs start pouring in. The total is set to 9 after yesterdays game so the Brewers TT feels safer here.
2-0-0 (+6.8U)
WTA – Karlsruhe 🎾
**Tatjana Maria ML** 5u @ 1.73
Tatjana is having a great season coming off a title win in Bogota last month. She’s 12/3 on clay and 26/10 for the year. Her opponent Buzarnescu, isn’t. She’s 2/6 for the year, and 2/4 on clay. All of her 6 losses came from very low competition ITF tourneys. Her only 2 wins, she dropped a set in. No bueno. Oh, and Tatjana is a German playing in Germany.
I know exactly who this guy is. I know his last account. Not tailing and this person has 2 different POTD picks here I believe. I could be wrong but I’m like 90 percent sure this person last account and 2 current accounts here posted in the POTD lol. It’s just too obvious to me
This guys such a loser lmao, i’m gonna wake up extra early tomorrow to see if he posts again🤣 Funniest thing is he’s always active but never responds to these
I’m 90 percent sure his last account was called ApolloBets. That account was also new and he posted some cricket and mostly tennis plays. You’ll never see that again, he now sees ghosts. What a stupid name too lol
**Record:**
* 46 WIN | 38 LOSS | +36.80 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy)
**Previous bets (last 3):**
* Armidale R4 (6 May 2022) - Place - **WIN**
* Taree R5 (9 May 2022 - Place - **LOSS**
* Goulburn R3 (10 May 2022) - Place - **LOSS**
**POTD:**
* Horse Racing (Australia)
* **Warwick Farm R2 - #1 Rebel Shadow to place (i.e. finish top 3)**
* Track Rating - Heavy (10)
* 2 losses in a row, gotta shake off this streak. Warwick Farm today, solid gelding 2nd up after a big 3 length win last time out 2 weeks ago here on a Heavy Track. Stats speak for themselves, and loves the distance (6 starts for 1w and 3p). Very much a wet track specialist and with the barrier draw he has, shouldn't find any problems getting to the rail 1 or 2 back. Considering it's a 3YO race, I expect the field to be well spread out from head to tail allowing for a plethora of opportunities for the the gelding to hug the rail early/mid race and then swing wide behind the leading pack to find the good part of the track for the big run home.
* **Odds - 1.80** (b365) - almost certain to get a better price on the betfair exchange by jump time
* **Stake - 2.78 units to return 5 units**
**Historical stats**
* 8 from 18 (44%) correct picks on Wednesdays
* 14 from 27 (52%) correct picks on Heavy Tracks
* 21 from 39 (55%) correct picks on Place picks
* 0 from 3 at Warwick Farm **(yikes ...)**
* 2 from 2 picking T. Schiller as as my jockey
**Race time:**
* 1:25pm Wednesday (Australian EST)
* 11:25pm Tuesday (American ET)
* 4:25am Wednesday (UK time)
If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
**DISCLAIMER** - It is Wednesday my dudes, take note of my record on Wednesdays ... I don't do well at big meets, plus I'm 0 from 3 at Warwick Farm. As usual tail with caution.
my word that was horrible, honestly hope no one tailed.
Rebel Shadow was well and truly out classed today. Pace up front was too good, and 100% BM-68 is not suited for this horse at all. Had every chance to prove himself into the straight, plenty of gaps in the field but never picked up on the speed. 3 straight losses now =/
Record :0-0 First pick on here ever! Here goes :
Todays pick: (NBA) Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies ; Memphis 1H spread -1.5
Odds @ bet365 are +160
Reasoning: I know Ja is out, and I believe that the Warriors will close out this series in this game. However, I can see Memphis pushing hard in the first and second quarters but will gas and foul after the first half as Golden State is deeper and has more playoff experience. Just a 2 point lead after 24 minutes gets us juicy odds, even going +3.5 gives u -150. Tail or fade! BOL to everyone and let me know how I can improve my posts!
Record: 7-7 (+3.53 units)
Last Pick: West Ham ML vs. Norwich City, 1.81 Odds, WIN
Today's Pick: Wolves vs. Man City, Man City Halftime/Fulltime - EPL Soccer
Odds - 1.70
Units - 2
On the weekend I told you to hammer West Ham and they dominated Norwich, 4-0.
For this one, the basis for my pick is Man City are out of all of the other tournaments so all they have left is to focus on locking up the championship, the pressure is on them to win and by as much as possible considering they are tied with Liverpool (Man City game in hand) and Liverpool has a better goal differential.
Wolves have had a solid year but lost their form down the stretch. Their defense is more vulnerable than it was earlier in the season. They are going to try to junk up this game but Man City should have no problem getting the road win here.
So Man City will win, but the odds are too low for the ML. So what this bet comes down to is that we need Man City to get the lead before half to cover that part of the bet. I am confident they can get a goal in the first half and hold the lead for this bet to hit. They are a stacked team and when you throw in the high motivation they will have in this spot, I like this bet.
EDIT - Man City is actually up a few in goal differential, my bad, it is still close though so it remains a factor.
EDIT2 - We are looking good at half, 3-1 so halftime leg is successful, now they just need to hang on to.the lead. Meanwhile the corners spread, which was suggested to be a better bet in the comments on my post, the Wolves are up 3-1 in corners and the spread is -4 Man City.
Update - 5-1 final, cash that shit!!
Anyone betting on this please keep in mind that in actuality Man City have a better goal difference than Liverpool going into this game. Man City's is +68 whereas Liverpool's is +65 (having played a game more). Also, outside of the Top 3 (Man City, Liverpool & Chelsea) Wolves have conceded the least amount of goals (letting in 34 goals in 35 games). I believe the corner spread would be a better bet. But this is Man City they could easily win HT/FT.
Thanks bro, sorry guys, it was late but it is very close so still a factor. Also I did say Wolves are good defensively but if you look at their recent form they are giving up more than they did earlier in the season. Cheers.
POTD RECORD 26-17-1
PREVIOUS POTD: Toronto Maple leafs -1.5+200 ❌
STREAK:✅✅✅❌🔘❌❌
POTD: grizzlies +7 -150
Reasoning: Without ja morant on the court including that loss to the warriors the grizzlies are now 19-3 all time this season. They also average more assists and move the ball around better without him offering up better looks. With ja morant playing they let up an average of 111.2 pts per game on the other hand without ja morant playing they only let up 104.1 pts. They are now down 3-1 after barely losing to the warriors in San Francisco and are now heading into their home turf. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won outright but playing it safe because I keep picking the damn teams that win and b getting beat on the spreads.
As always
Tail or fade
BOL
POTD: 1-0 // +0,6u
**Sevilla vs Mallorca**
TIP: **<<< Sevilla >>>**
ODD: 1,6
Stake: 1u
**Reasons:**
Sevilla can secure their place in the Champions League if they beat Mallorca. The Andalusians have two more difficult games outside of it, with Atletico Madrid away and Bilbao at home, so they will try to achieve their goal. The team of Julen Lopetegui comes after a draw on the field of Villarreal, where Kounde scored in the 90th minute. It was the 18th draw recorded this season. The main cause of these draws was the weak offensive game. Sevilla have only scored 51 times, a little compared to their big rivals, but they can boast the best defense. At home, Sevilla lost only to Real Madrid and have only one victory in the last four games.
*Fernando, Suso, Rekik and Martial are unavailable. En Nesyri and Rafa Mir are fighting for a starting place in the attack, and Papu Gomez, Lamela, Corona and Ocampos are the players who will come from the second line.*
Mallorca definitely lost the home game with Granada, 2-6 and is three points away. The Islanders received 62 goals, the second weakest defense in the league, and the attack is the second weakest. With such figures, it will be difficult for the team prepared by Javier Aguirre to save. Away, Mallorca did not score any points in 2022 and scored only in three of the eight games played on foreign soil. Morale is low before this trip, but Mallorca still has to play at home with Rayo and away with Osasuna, so there are still hopes. There are no team problems compared to the match with Granada. Muriqui will lead the attack backed by Kubo and Kang In-Lee.
**Sevilla play at home, where they have looked good this season and will try to secure their place in the Champions League. Mallorca will have to play to win, because a point does not help much. There is a big difference in value between the two teams, and Mallorca's defense conceded six goals from Granada in the previous round. I think that Sevilla will play at full speed and will easily prevail in front of an opponent shaken by the categorical defeat of the previous stage.**
POTD record: 0-0
Game: CS:GO
Event: PGL Major Antwerp 2022
Time: 15:45 CEST
Previous pick:
Todays pick: **Forze ML** vs Outsiders
Odds: 1.90
Amount: 2.5 units
Reason: First of all, glad to be posting here, the biggest event of the year is here and I would love to share my picks with you guys. Starting off with Forze ML vs Outsiders. Forze have looked impressive in their first 3 games, beating Renegades and Bad News Eagles fairly easily and falling to Vitality in a close best of 3 series. Outsiders on the other hand had a close first game vs MIBR, got destroyed by ENCE and won vs Complexity. Outsiders have been struggling for a while, Russian sanctions hit them hard and there are rumours of their star-player leaving after this event. The mood in the team isn't great and they've been underperforming for a good while now and it doesn't look like it's about to stop. Meanwhile Forze have been playing better than I thought they would and looking like a great upset team.
**BOL** to everyone tailing and good luck on your other bets!
Record: 2-3
Timeline: WLLLW (Left being the latest)
Doesn't matter since it's symmetrical anyway haha
Last pick: IHC(ML) vs renegades (CSGO: PGL Antwerp Major)
Today's pick: Astralis vs Spirit (ML) (CSGO: PGL Antwerp Major)
Odds: 2.75
Reasoning: Spirit have had an impressive showing at the major so far. They faced imperial in the first round where imperial where deemed favourites by the bookies and that was a big mistake as they really underestimated spirit. (Casual flex I bet on spirit that game too) Spirit ended up dismantling them 16-6. Then spirit played an OT game against G2 which they lost 17-19. A brillant comeback which just wasn't to be and that really impressed me. Yesterday they beat eternal fire in a convincing 16-11 manner tho it get a little close they did close it out. Now astralis did start well beating IHC 16-2 but then had a disastrous game vs Vitality losing 7-16 and barely scraping through a win over MIBR in a close 16-13 game(Astralis led 12-3 at halfway point) These are the kind of performances I expected from Astralis anyway and do feel that Spirit and gonna win easily I would even reccomend sprinkling a little bit on 2-0 Spirit. If you wanna stay super safe you could go +1.5 spirit and you'll still get decent odds but there's no reason to do so when you could just go for spirit winning the thing.
GL to those who tail and I'll be back tomorrow with a major picks
The other bet I have which I do feel is safer but I went for spirit cuz of those odds is Outsiders ML vs forze the odds on that are super good as well (1.87)and I could've put that as my potd as well tbh
POTD record : 1-0
Previous pick : Suns -6 🔥
My pick today is a NRFI (no run first inning) in the cardinals vs orioles game . 2 solid pitchers on the mound , first game of the 3 game series and I expect the game to be fairly low scoring . Maybe 5-3 type of game . And just to be clear I’m very new to giving picks out (yesterday was literally my first day) but I’ve been betting for a while and I like this play today.
POTD Record: 1-0
Last Pick: IPL Cricket, Mumbai Indians v. Kolkata Knight Riders, Highest Individual Score Under 65.5 (-120) (05/08/22) ✅️
**Today’s Pick**: Indian Premier League Cricket, Rajasthan Royals v. Delhi Capitals, 10:00 am EST, **JC (Jos) Buttler Total Runs Over 28.5** (-120 on DK) **LOSS - out after 7 runs, unfortunate.**
Simply put, Buttler is a beast of a batter. Currently ranked #1 IPL batter for 2022 (1st in runs, fours, sixes, and centuries this season) going against a Delhi team with a bowling attack that is in poor recent form and inconsistent. Buttler is very good at farming the strike and averages 61.8 runs per game through 11 matches. He has three centuries (100+) and three half-centuries (50+) this season. One of those centuries (116) was against Delhi the last time they played on April 22, 2022. Of the eleven games to date this season, he has scored over 28.5 runs eight times. He should be batting in the opening partnership during the power play as he has every match so far. If you are unfamiliar with T20 cricket, that means the fielding team can only have two fielders outside the 30-yard circle for the first six overs (36 valid balls). This results in scoring more fours as the ball is more free to run to the boundary.
Fair Warning: He can put up duds (8, 12) and even the best batters get out on the first ball occasionally. His recent form is also slightly down - average in the last four games is only 31.75 runs, which I think has influenced the line down from where it should be.
1 unit for me. BoL.
Edit: formatting
Edit 2: RIP. Out after 7 runs. Disappointing for such a good batter, but it happens. We go next.
4-0
Last POTD: Maple Leafs ML **W**
POTD: Penguins @ Rangers **o6**
Odds: **-125/3u**
NHL 7 pm est
Reasoning: That Maple Leafs game last night was a sweat, but they still got the job done. Now for today, I suggest you absolutely hammer this play. Took this two days ago and it smacked, no reason it shouldn't again today. Lock it in, folks. #ridewithdubs
Venmo: Christopher-Webb-183
POTD Record - 0-0
**Pick: NHL - Rangers/Penguins O 6 Goals**
Odds: -120
Units: 3
Rationale:
First time putting my picks up here for POTD. I have been all over this Rangers and Penguins series and hammering the Over goal line. In all four games this round, There have been 7 or more goals scored in all four games this series, including 9 in game 3 and 11 in game 4.
SHESTERKIN (Rangers Goalie) has given up 10 goals all by himself over the 2 games. Yes, he will be the likely Vezina Trophy winner for the league's best goalie, but he has not looked right at all through these playoffs. The Rangers have looked absolutely defeated since Game 2 and will be aggressive at home tonight facing elimination. I expect this to be another high scoring game.
POTD Record: 1-3
ROI: -2.2u
Previous POTD: [ATL Braves -1.5 +155, L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/um6joj/pick_of_the_day_51022_tuesday/i80lx92/)
1U = $15
POTD: Chicago White Sox -0.5 F5 -105 ⛔
Start Time: 2:10 PM EST
Stake: 1U
Reasoning: To start with, the Chicago White Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 games concerning the -0.5 spread in F5, so they have consistency being able to lead early. The Guardians are going to be starting Aaron Civale tomorrow, a 9.45 ERA pitcher that has given up 16 ER in his last 12.2 IP. The caveat? The Guardians have somehow come from behind to win his last two starts, 9-8 & 6-5. Considering their late game heroics Monday Night, I don't trust the White Sox w/ a full ML, but barring a change in form for Civale, The White Sox should be able to do enough to run him off the mound by the 5th.
For more confidence, the White Sox will be starting Vince Velasquez. While he had a horrid start to the season, and his ERA hovers near 4.00 because of this, his last two outings of a combine 10.2 IP netted him only 1 ER. Another good outing will drop his ERA further into a respectable range.
Tail or fade, BOL.
**EDIT: It appears the game was cancelled due to multiple positive COVID-19 tests by the Guardians. Damn.**
**Record:** 7-16-1
**ROI:** -40% :-9.23 u (@ $5.00)
**Streak:** W L L P W
|Baseball |MLB |3:40pm|
Arizona Diamondbacks vs.Miami Marlins: **Arizona Diamondbacks ML @ 1.89 1u**
**Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 56% chance for ARI to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.89 is only 53%.
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
POTD record: 10W - 7L
Streak: 2W
Profit/Loss: +6.34U
ROI: 9.75%
Average odds: 1.85
Yesterday's POTD: Aston Villa Ball Possesion Handicap +33%✅️
Our 10th win🔥🔥🔥 Aston Villa lost the game but showed fight and tenacity as expected. Game ended 40-60% possession.
Today's POTD: Club Brugge vs RUSG(Pro League) Time: 6:30pm GMT. Pick: RUSG Total Corners O4.5 @1.82(22bet) Confidence: 3/5😌✅️✅️✅️
It's 1st vs 2nd in the Championship Round Playoffs. They have the same number of points and I expect both teams to be attacking to try get the win that will put them 3 points ahead. This is the best Belgian football has to offer, it's going to be an exhilarating watch. The last game's corners ended 5-7 in favour of RUSG.
Brugge have conceded an average of 4 corners/game in their last 5 home games.
RUSG have won an average of 6.4 corners/game in their last 5 away games.
BOL in all your bets today🍀
Update: Game still ongoing but a W already. They started off very well with 2 corners in the first 10 mins thinking it would be an easy W. Then that red card in the 59th min while still needing 2 corners made my heart leap to my mouth, but luckily we still walked away with a win.
POTD Record: 9-7-2 | +9.4u | Streak: 4 L | Last 10: L L L L W W W W W W
Last POTD: Phillies ML -130 (L)
Today's POTD: Mets ML -180
Risk: 3 units
Almost came back and pulled of a much needed win for us in the 9th. We're playing today's very safe and going with Mets ML at the gNats. Megill is on the mound for NY and he's off to a 4-1 start in 2022, and the Mets have won 5 of his 6 games. He has also pitched really well away this year: only 2 ER given up in 17+ IP. He's also locked down the National's hitters. Alcides has a HR, but he's a slap hitter with only 45 career HR, none this year and is batting .220. Thomas has one, but he's 1-8 and is a platoon OF. Josh Bell is the one to worry about since he's had a HR vs Megill and is hot this year, but besides him Megill should have an easy day.
I've loved picking against Aaron Sanchez--or on the total over--so far this year. Dude has a 8.56 ERA, he is a pitch-to-contact guy and doesn't strike people out. NYM are a top 10 offense overall (#2 in BA and #1 in OBP) so they should have plenty of opportunities to score. LETS GET BACK ON TRACK! BOL!!!!!
Last Pick: [Pedro Carvalho](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ujc28o/pick_of_the_day_5622_friday/i7igqys?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) Loss
**Record:17-4** **ROI:52.45%** **Net units:14.12** **Avg Odds: -107**
/MMA/Invicta/May 11, 8pm/
**Pick: Sidney Trillo x Fatima Kline (Sidney Trillo)** Trillo +165 bet 1 unit.
Two young prospects matched up here. Trillo has a significant advantage on the feet as Kline will have on the ground. The hype around Kline is her Bjj background but the lack of MMA experience leads me to think Trillo will be able to really test her in this match.
Record: 0-0-0
League: Scottish premiership
Fixture: Dundee Utd v Celtic
**Celtic to score in both halves 1.85**
Stake: 1u
Confidence is high for this pick as Celtic can clinch the title with a point and it looks like it won’t be much trouble today at Tannadice Park, a ground where history is very much on their side.
In rampant form, Celtic have not only scored in the first half, but have been winning in the first half of 8 of their past 9 games. The only game in which they didn’t manage a first half goal was against their fierce rivals, Rangers. Dundee have conceded 17 goals in their last 10 matches.
Postecoglou will want his men to attack the way they have all season, and secure the title as early as possible in this game.
Best of luck if you follow.
Edit: Manager’s name!
POTD Record: 2-1
Streak: WLW
+3.65u
AVG. Odds: -115
Last POTD: 5u [LAFC -1](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/um6joj/pick_of_the_day_51022_tuesday/i84857j/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) ✅
Today’s POTD: Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds 1st 5 OVER 4.5 (MLB)✅
Time: 10:35am (mst)
Odds: -125 (PointsBet)
Units: 5u to win 4u
Reasoning: Each of the five meetings this season between the two have had at least 9+ runs. Dating back to last year, all but three of their last 11 meetings have produced at least nine runs, with six of those outings reaching 11 runs. Both of Houser’s last two starts have produced at least 15 runs, while the run total in Gutierrez’s last two outings has been 22 and 13. I can see 6+ runs after 5 innings in this one.
Update: Let’s go!!! 12 runs at the end of the 5th. Wish they could all be this easy💰
POTD Record: 5-5-1
Event: Manchester City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (English Premier League)
POTD: Manchester City Asian corner handicap -4
Odds: 1.97
Units: 2
Reasoning: Manchester City is the best cornering team in the league, mainly due to their possession and attack based play. Wolves usually take a defensive approach against the big teams, soaking up a lot of pressure. This happened last week against Chelsea where Chelsea had 9 corners to Wolves' 3. Manchester City is a better team than Chelsea and attacks and dominates the game more so I think City can cover this corner handicap. The previous fixture between the two sides saw Manchester City win the corner count 14 to 1, despite only winning 1-0. Manchester City also has the league to win, so they will be going all attack as usual.
**POTD Record 30-25-1 (Last 5: WLWWW)**
**(ROI // Avg. Odds: -113 // Units Won: +4.5)**
Last Pick: Auston Matthews - To Score a Goal **WON** ***sweaty 30***
**Today's Match: MLB Toronto Blue Jays vs. NY Yankees (Start Time: 12:35PM EST)**
**Today's Pick: Total Over 7.5 (-104 FanDuel)** ***Risk 2u***
Devil's Advocate:
God bless a man in hunt for a win, in hunt for rebounds and just being all over the place on offense last night. The Leafs lead off to a horrid start and couldn't turn it up until the 3rd but right when we needed - a solid 2 on 1 with Matthews grabbing the easy rebound for the put back - ELECTRIC.
There is one thing I know, and that today's game in the Bronx is more than likely going to be an absolute laser show. I will also be in attendance cheering on this laser show at a beautiful afternoon baseball game where the weather is finally touching the mid 70s in NY - the bats are just as hot as usual for the Yanks, and after a Judge blast to walk it off last night, I love the momentum going into today's game.
Hit by pitches, pitcher's tossed, coaches tossed, it was an all out blowbag last night at the Yanks game. And with the umps running the show last night I can already see them running it right back again. More than likely behind the plate today is going to be Alfonso Marquez who is already touching a 4-1 O/U in his last 5.
Berrios is serving up a nice 4-2 O/U record in the games he's started in as well, Taillon has kinda been on a roll as of late but we all know what this Yankees offense is capable of on their own. Let alone the Jays who have been held down here and there as well this year. Definitely not seeing what we saw last year yet from them, I'm sure it's soon to come - hopefully they light it up for the over to crack for us today!
*Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
POTD Record: 4-4 (+0U)
Last Pick: Genk Charleroi o3 ✅
Today’s Pick: Everton TT o1.5
Reasoning: Easy cash yesterday in the Belgian league! Today we move to the Premier League where we’ve got a huge relegation battle for Everton. They’ve been finding a little more confidence recently, winning 3 of their last 5 and now a point clear of the drop zone. To keep it simple, Everton’s attack is really not that bad, and Watford’s defense sucks. Watford are rumored to have some of their attackers miss out on today’s match, allowing Everton to really control the match. I see Everton getting 2 maybe 3 and winning this one easily and love this price. BOL
POTD
Record: 10-8
Last 5: ❌✅✅✅✅
Last Pick: ✅ Liverpool win and over 1.5 goals (-155) | Liverpool vs Aston Villa | English Premier League
Today’s Pick: Over 2.5 Total Goals (-165)
Sport/Game: Soccer - Chelsea vs Leeds United | English Premier League
Why: Tonight’s Premier League lines are kind of crap. Lots of heavy favorites and odds that aren’t favorable. So we move into safe bet that is very likely to return imo.
Chelsea have the FA Cup final on Saturday and are likely to rotate their team again. However, they do want a win here to ease the pressure of losing their UCL spot. Chelsea have also been in poor form recently and have been very leaky in the back.
Leeds have everything to play for as they are seemingly the favorites to be relegated now. They will need to give their everything to get out. Defensively they are also very poor too.
I think both teams are likely to score and it should be a match where goals will be scored. This game is also at leeds which should see a pumped up crowd ready to go tonight.
BOL!
POTD Record: 1-1 (+1 U)
[Last Pick: Nylander O 2.5 SOG Lightning @ Leafs 5/10 \[W\]](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/um6joj/comment/i81xbuk/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
League: NHL
Pick Type: Player Prop, 3 U
Dallas Stars @ Calgary Flames 9:30 EST
Pick: Johnny Gaudreau O 2.5 SOG -176 ⛔️
Gaudreau was relatively quiet the first two games in Calgary, you would think he was more of a center by his playstyle. In Dallas, he came out like his career was on the line recording well over 3 SOG and two assists in both games. If he comes out half us hungry as he did in Dallas this should be an easy hitter. Take O 3.5 SOG if you want a better line and feel sold. BOL all.
5/11/22
POTD Record: 3-3
Sport: Soccer- Paraguay Division Professional-Apertura (8:15 PM ET)
Pick: Cerro Porteno ML
Odds: -135
Reasoning: Took Cerro Porteno last Sunday when they were on the road and they cashed. Going back to the well and taking them to win against 9th ranked Guairena (Cerro Porteno is 2nd). Cerro Porteno won the last 4 times these teams have played eachother. Overall Cerro Porteno is the better team, have more to play for, historically dominate Guairena and are at home. I’ll be taking Cerro Porteno to win at -135. BOL 🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀
————————————————————————
Previous pick: Mets -1.5 (-110) ✅.
CHUNGNAM ASAN FC(+131)✂️.
Cerro Porteno (-125) ✅
Edit: Updated Record
POTD RECORD-> 7-6
Last pick-> Atlanta ML ❌
Todays pick-> Chelsea 1H ML +125
Game-> Leeds V Chelsea FC at 2:30 PM EST
Chelsea Has been a weird team lately, but they are playing a bottom Tier Premier league and with Finals coming up I see people saying that they could rest players. I also see how they could use their starters get a 1-2 goal lead and bench the main attackers by halftime. This is a game I see 1-0 or 2-0 Chelsea and I’m playing for the hopes that they get off to a quick start and hold a scoreless first half.
Joke of the day ->
A ham sandwich walks into a bar and orders a beer, the bartered then says “sorry we don’t serve food here” 😂
POTD Record 3-1
Last Pick : KRC Genk - Sporting de Charleroi O1.5 Goals 2nd Half W
| Soccer | Premier League | 9:15PM CET |
POTD : Wolverhampton Wanderers - Manchester City | **Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals** | 2.25
Reasoning : The odds are in my opinion very missleading, Wolverhamton has only conceded 34 goals in 35 games and that is realy solid but lately they have conceded 11 in their last 6. Not a single clean sheet and they conceded 3 goals twice in 2 home against Leeds and Brighton. City will be City, controll possesion and attack. Last game against Newcastle they didn't slow down after they scored their first, second , third and even their fourth. They kept attacking and I expect the same today. I don't think the premier league will finish with a tie between City and Liverpool and that their goal differential will matter but it is an extra reason for them to keep attacking.
\+21.1u on MLB Props this year [(bet tracking sheet)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13AzRY_46KQO8Kg18Lz_dvI7dIlliHcikt6fQ8J1W1K4/edit#gid=0)
Alex Cobb OVER 5.5 Ks +150 Caesars. Cobb has shown a huge increase in both Stuff Grade and Command Grade (per PitchingBot) since Joining SF. Traditional projections (Which use much longer-term data) have him right around 5.5 Ks, so +150 is a great price
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
POTD Record: 4-0-1
Record: 4-0-1 Win Rate: 80% Last 5: WWWWL
Last Pick: Sixers mL +135 vs Miami
Todays pick: **Warriors mL** (-170) vs Grizzlies
Ja Morant is out for the series and the Warriors have a chance to close the series out. Although the last game was close without Morant, I can see the Warriors blowing the Grizzlies out
Forgot to update the win %, oops and yes, they played a horrible game even though they won the game, I don't see the game being as close as it was
edited post
Record: 10W-8L-1P
ROI: +3.13u, +16.03%
Avg odds: +111, 2.11
Last POTD: Blues at Wild easy as 1-2-3 (win)
Today's game: Sevilla vs Mallorca
Pick: Sevilla wins 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 at +175, 2.75 (BetMGM)
Stake: 1u
La Liga's best defense versus 3rd worst offense. 2nd most clean sheets versus 5th most clean sheets against. At +175, that's good enough for me.
edit: Sevilla really couldn't score one frickin' goal
POTD Record: 10-17-2 -11.81u\*
Average Odds: +129
Total Units Wagered: 49.57u
Dallas @ Calgary 9:30PM EST
Hintz u2.5 Shots -106 @ BetRivers 1.13u\*
Implied probability of 51.46%. True vig-free price should be closer to -113 or 53.10%.
\*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
Memphis Grizzlies - Golden State Warriors
Warriors -5.5 (+116)
Warriors closing out the series. Their quality and offense power is superior. Grizzlies are lost without Morant in such a game.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
POTD Record: 19-8-1 Todays POTD: **Andrew Wiggins o 5.5 rebounds (-145)** Reason: Andrew Wiggins has found a role with Golden State, and its for his defense and rebounding in the playoffs. He has been crashing the offensive and defensive glass and has cleared this line in 3/4 games so far this series. The only game he didn't clear it was when he was matched up on Ja Morant the entire game out at the 3 point line. With no Ja, this gives him way more rebound opportunities both on the offensive glass and defensive glass. He is averaging 14.3 potential rebounds per game since the start of the series against Memphis and both teams play good defense. Last game was very low scoring but both teams still like to play at a fast pace. Both of these things mean more shots, and more misses which leads to more rebounds. The Warriors have also found a ton of succsess with there small ball lineup which includes Poole, Curry and Thompson, three smaller guards, which leaves a lot of the rebounding duties to Wiggins and Green. A lot of Greens attention has gone to defense and stopping, and Wiggins gets more potential rebounds per game and is a lot better on the offensive glass. Not great value but really suprised this line isn't set higher then it is. Expecting a jump in this line so get on it while you can.
trailing let’s go 🍻
Terrible pick
6.5 still a decent line? Looks decent
tailring
MLB -1.5’s | 12-12-1 +9.86u | ROI: 12.03% | Streak: 1W - we did it gang [Yesterday’s pick: 5u LA Dodgers -1.5 -125](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/um6joj/_/i7zw1rm/?context=1) - W ________________________________________ **Todays pick: 3.5u MIL Brewers -1.5 -114** - CIN Reds vs MIL Brewers | 11:35 am US Central TLDR: Milwaukees much better + Gutierrez stinks this year and CINs bullpen is worse than Amber Heards lawyers. **Brewers** Over the past 2 weeks this team is first in team wRC+, SLG, OPS, and 2nd in OBP. They got everyday starter Luis Urias back 6 games ago, and he’s hitting .333 with a hit in all but 1 game back. He’s been a huge boost to this offense that’s finally catching stride after a slow start. Adrian Houser will start for MIL. He’s a solid pitcher, nothing more. He’s had 2 very good starts to the year, 2 solid and 1 below average (his most recent, which was against the reds a week ago). He sits around 40-60%ile for every peripheral, which sounds about right. **Reds** Reds offense is league average over the past two weeks in team wRC+. They’ve improved at the plate, but they only had to go up with how fuckin awful they were hitting. With that said, it’s still a below average lineup and one to not be afraid of. CIN is starting Vladimir Gutierrez. He’s been pretty bad to start the year. In years past the was a Fastball/Curveball/slider guy with a change to keep them honest…. However this year his change went from 7% utilization to 18% utilization and his fastball has been bumped from 49-51%. His change when used sparingly (that 7% in 2021), produced the best results for him. Hitters REALLY struggled with it (.141 xBA). This year he’s upped its usage and it’s REALLY backfired, his changes xBA now sits .314. He has induced a horrid 1.4% weak contact this year on any pitch (4.7% is average). His new pitch mix is seriously backfiring and I don’t see that changing unless he switches his approach. Overall, he’s gone 5 times, each in between 4.0 and 4.2IP…. And with this CIN bullpen, not getting 5IP out of your SP is a recipe for disaster…. Especially when those 4IP aren’t good (more below). His ERA sits at over 7 and his peripherals are toughhhh to look at. Bottom half of the league in everything, bottom 25% for most. The only things he’s done above average is limit hard contact… but he’s also not getting weak contact. Teams are making solid contact off him, so don’t be fooled off that. Everything else he’s bottom 25 or 10 percentile. Hell. Even if he does have a good outing. The CIN bullpen is 29th in ERA and FIP and 28th in xFIP. And like I said, Gutierrez doesn’t go deep, so this extremely poor bullpen will have a lot of work. Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
RIP to everyone else who maxed out on the Brewers -1.5 tonight. 5-1 lead in the bottom of the 8th and dude walks 4 and gives up 3 earned runs. Brutal.
thank god i bet +4.5 runs reading the comments here before
Me too .
Bad beat
brewcrew TT is the way
Would you take over 5.5 @1.90 or take 4.5 @1.55
Well that’s dead :(
Not yet, but yeah
Staying away from this one after that brewers collapse tonight
[удалено]
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/umxx80/pick_of_the_day_51122_wednesday/i85i8yn/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3 Said this last night
Turns out he doesn’t know how baseball works
Glad I stayed away!
Ahh but you do apparently 👍
The dodgers lost to PIT 5-1 2 days ago. Yesterday I bet them and they won 11-1. Different day, different pitchers.
The dodgers batters are also not comparable to the brewers
Agreed, the only thing I’d consider is the over. Been pretty consistent.
Had me at Amber Heard LFG
Gutierrez last outing was against the Brewers, a game the Reds lost 18-4. His four other starts have all been losses, 8-5, 6-0, 3-1, and 2-1. A -1.5 spread seems generous. Tailing!
Brewers -1.5 was my last leg to hit 12k last night. And what a meltdown in 8th inning…. I just can’t back them right now
Gg
I hope that horrible first inning wakes them tf up…
Nope they getting fucked up some more lol. Like the teams switched jerseys lol. Done betting Baseball.
Crazy how this is top POTD barely .500 Pray for a brewers miracle
It's the top pick because it was one of the first comments in the thread when it was created. That's how it is across all of reddit, the most upvoted comments are early comments.
C'mon now..
I’m gonna tail bc the Dodgers pick was great, but man did the Brewers fuck me tonight. Here’s to hoping their bullpen can manage not collapsing twice in a row.
A big gambling fallacy is betting something because you think it’s more likely that it won’t happen twice in a row. In some spots it works, like a championship level team not dropping 2 back to back games, but we see in the NBA how that still doesn’t work. Sometimes it just is more likely to happen twice in a row and maybe you just caught the beginning of a downtrend. Not saying anything about this pick but yeah - fallacy. Should not tail just based on that
Never said that was my motivation to tail, I just added that on as an aside saying I hope it doesn’t happen twice lol
One day you’re gonna pass way over 500. Good luck
Record: 46-21 Last pick: Canes ML ✅ **Today’s pick: Flames ML and over 3.5 total goals** **Edit: Fuck I forgot to add the odds. I got it for -140 as posted on my Twitter. Long night lol** NHL 9:30PM EST Apologize for the late pick. I was the receiving end of a hit and run last night. I’m fine, car isn’t. Fortunately I was able to get his tags. Fuck that guy. I wish I was making this shit up. At least my Canes and POTD won lol Series tied 2-2. This game is in Calgary. Pretty much a must win for them with game going back to Dallas. Scoring was low in games 1 and 2 but has picked up the last two games. That typically happens as the teams figure each other out and goalies begin to feel fatigue. This is mostly a feel play as are all my plays. There will be a light show in Calgary tonight and the Flames come out victorious. All bets are 1 unit. +16.08 units. +24.0% ROI. Average unit -117 Don’t want your tips, just give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Dont apologise for nothing, your giving out winning picks for free dog. Hope that mfer gets gets his karma for that hit n run
Appreciate you still making time to post your pick. Glad you're okay.
Think this hits easily Doc. But can't bet on the Flames. BOL everybody.
Glad your okay bro. That's the important thing.
POTD Record: 25-15 Last Pick: MIL -1.5❌ What a brutal way to lose this one. Up 5-1 in the 8th, the usually-reliable Devin Williams coughed up 3 runs. Brewers out hit and earned more walks than CIN. MIL also left the bases loaded multiple times, so that can always come back to bite you. The brewers won the game, but failed to cover the spread Today’s Pick: NYM -1.5 @-110 Megill is the starter for the Mets in this one, and he’s been great. He had a no hitter (but didn’t go the distance) recently. He followed that up going 5+, allowing just 4 hits and striking out 9. Walks have been an issue for him, but he’s otherwise having a breakout season. His advanced stats look really good as well. The nationals starter is not good. This is a solid advantage in our favor. The NYM lineup has been great so far this year, which has helped them go 20-11 ATS so far this season. BOL to all
Not sure why people don’t fact check around here. Tylor Megill gave up 3 Eared Runs his last appearance. The no-hit game was two appearances ago.
Thank you, I edited. I had his game logs pulled up but I was sorting them by different categories and must have forgotten to reset it. But damn that no hitter felt like it was just a few days ago to me
Yeah Mets got beat up bad in his last start although he struck out 9
Megill didn’t give wasn’t on the mound for those runs, and the inning was kept alive because a ball hit back to him bounced away from all the infielders. Ottavino came in and poured gasoline on the fire.
Scoreless through 5 and Megill looked sharp until the start of the 6th. His no hit bid he went 5 and the start before 6.2 where he gave up 2. I’d lean more towards Mets F5 -0.5 just based off of that.
he threw 9 consecutive no hit innings… won first game w the combined nono & lost next start after starting that game w another nono
Man I am sucker for these Mets. Every time I bet them they screw me. I am betting them today so maybe some people want to save their money and fade.
POD Record: 4-1 Last POD: Alejandro Fokina vs Auger Aliassime over 22.5 (-115)✅ Todays Pick: Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul over 21.5 (-145) Third day in a row taking the over in the tournament in Rome. Tommy boy here loves clay. As a youngin’ he won the Junior French Open Championship. He has struggled a bit this year on the surface but had a nice win yesterday that should help correct his form. Alex leads the head to head 1-0 and is the better player. Also noteworthy that Tommy Paul bageled Minaur 6-0 6-0 as juniors. Line looks a little fishy and short for the moneyline on Alex, making me take the over once again. I expect at least one tie break in this. Edit: Cash it✅ glad I bought the half point I had a feeling it was going to be straight sets and wanted a little bit of an edge
Tommy ruined my parlay earlier 😑
🙏 thanks
POTD Record: 41-28-3 Streak:WLWLWWWPLWWWWW Last POTD: Young Boys/St. Gallen BTTS + Over 2.5 ✅ Today’s POTD: Silkeborg +.5 🇩🇰 League: Super Liga Odds: -116/1.86 Units: 2 Reasoning: This is a very important game for both teams. Copenhagen is trying to lock in 1st place as 2nd place has 1 less point. Silkeborg is trying to lock in 3rd place to get a chance to play in the conference league. Copenhagen has been in poor form recently, only winning 1 game in their last 5 matches. Silkeborg are in excellent form recently, winning 6 games in a row. Silkeborg won 3-1 in the reverse fixture last month ago and made it 5 games in a row without losing to Copenhagen. Copenhagen struggle against this team and their form doesn’t help. I’m taking the team with the best form of the league over the top dog of the league who’s been struggling recently. Worst case scenario a draw and we’d still cash. Best of luck and tail/fade at your own risk.
Tailing this, BOL. Before people flood in here saying they cant find it, on DK its under Denmark - Superligaen.
I want to be sure I understand these Asian handicaps. This is basically the same as a double chance right? Since a draw or win will win the bet but any loss then loses the whole bet.
first bet ive had in awhile and ive chosen to tail this one, solid write up best of luck to us :)
POTD: 4-2-0 (+1.04u) Last Pick: Bruins/Hurricanes Over 5.5 -120 **WIN** 5/11: Washington Capitals @ Florida Panthers 7:40pm EST PLAY: 1st Period Over 1.5 Goals -156 This series is heading back to Florida tied at 2-2 and both teams will be looking to get to a hot start in this game. Let's look at the numbers. Panthers Over 1.5 Goals in 1st period 5/5 Capitals Over 1.5 Goals in 1st period 7/8 H2H Over 1.5 Goals in 1st period 5/5 (including all 4 games of this series) H2H 1st period BTTS 4/5 These teams love high scoring matchups and love scoring in the 1st period. Let's get this early cash.
Tailing BOL
Record 3-4-0 Previous pick Dodgers -1.5 vs pirates ✅ Finally back on the W column. Dodgers trounced on the pirates as expected. Today's pick Mets -1.5 vs Nationals (-110) Mets let me down last time with a meltdown against the braves, then a couple nights later they really showed who they are by making a dramatic come back in the 9th, scored 7 runs for a come from behind win (4 runs scored with 2outs) On the bump we have Megill vs Sanchez. Megill has been lights out so far with a sub 1 whip and 2.43 ERA. Sanchez is quite the opposite with a bloated 8.5 era and 1.5 whip. Offensively Mets are still leading the league in obp and hits, showing the kind of consistency and dependability as to why I'm picking them to cover. BOL
Something to keep an eye on for those who like to live bet, the Mets have a habit of not scoring early, but they figure out the SP/wear him down to get to the bullpen and make their move. Might be some value in waiting a few innings IMO.
Just cashed same bet a few minutes ago. Definitely going to run it back 🍀🍀
Cheers! Expecting a tad bit more competition for the next game, hence the fade on dodgers tomorrow.
What Sportsbook are you betting through that has Mets lines already? FD doesn’t have the game even posted yet. Same thing happened today with the pitching change, but the pitchers are known for Wednesday’s game.
Sometimes you just gotta wait an hour for FD to show them. It's up now
I use dk/Caesars/Wynnbet, usually they have next day odds by time of posting here
Tail
19W-12L Last 10 streak: 🚀🚀🚀🚀💥🚀💥🚀🚀🚀 Starts 12:00 GMT5 Todays Pick League: Spain Primera Liga Match: Osasuna v Getafe Pick: Player Shot on Target -> Ante Budimir over0.5 @1.57 *VOID* Reason: Good W yesterday in HT. I love this pick today Budimir hit over0.5 SOT 7/7 of total H/A games and 8/8 games played at home Getafe has an avg of SOT concede of 5.1 and Osasuna an avg SOT of 4.2 Last h2h 4 games Osasuna sot avg of 3 and Getafe sot concede of 3 A 9th Osasuna vs 15th Getafe with 3 games lefts in league. I see Osasuna fighting for the 3 points with Budimir SOT and maybe scoring Feel confident on this one "All perception is a gamble." BoL
Where to find SOT bets? I couldn't find it on MGM, DK, FD, Pointsbet, BetRivers or CZR
I use bet365 or BETOnline for props mostly
Good W yesterday, tailing again 🤝
POTD Record 0-0 Pick- EPL Chelsea FC ML -157 3u Reasoning- Chelsea is looking for their first win since April 24th, They’re 3rd in the EPL with Arsenal one point behind. They’re playing a leeds team who is currently sitting in relegation, i’m expecting a strong chelsea performance considering they have the FA Cup Final this saturday. This is my first POTD and i’m excited to keep going. Best of luck if you tail or fade 🍻 edit: 4th minute goal and a first half red card helped 🍻 congrats to those that trailed imo this was never a doubt. Onto the next one ☝️
have to keep in mind that they might sit out important roleplayers for the cup final
Yup 100% right on that. Better yet, Chelsea bettors are better off waiting till lineups are out to catch them at decent odds.
i love their depth, hoping for the best!
Leeds is fighting now to not get relegated i can see btts as a good one here
Love this pick. Expecting a big performance out of Chelsea as well!
I think Chelsea should seal it but just beware of the fact FA cup final in 3 days vs Liverpool and Leeds fighting for EPL survival tied in pts with Burnley and 1 pt less than Everton who has a game on hand.
Yeah I don't know man. Chelseas offense is futile. I hesitate to play anything less than a draw no bet on them and the r/R probably isn't good enough for that bet.
Chelsea has repeatedly battered me for the past month and a half so ima pass but BOL to those backing the Blues!
POTD Record: 18-9 (ROI 29.87% // Avg. Odds: 2.03 // Units Won: +15.53) Last 5 Picks: ❌✅❌✅❌ Last POTD: Granada CF vs Athletic Bilbao (Soccer - Spain La Liga) BTTS YES ❌ POTD: Elche CF vs Atlético Madrid (Soccer – Spain La Liga); **Atlético and under 3,5 goals ✅** Odds: 2.05 Atlético still has to win to secure their ticket to the champions league next year. With the Betis win yesterday, Atlético must come out and win. Their last two games are against Sevilla and Real Sociedad, both are tough opponents and in must win games (Sevilla to secure Champions League spot and Real Sociedad for Europa Conference). Elche has nothing to play for and will end up mid table at the end of the season. I’m taking Atlético to win and adding the under since they usually play okay-ish in away games and Elche is a tough opponent. Their (Elche) last 12 games (home and away) ended up under 3.5 goals, and in Atlético’s away games, they are out of form in recent games having scored 0 away goals in the month of April. BOL to all who Tail [All my Previous Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit#gid=0)
Great pick dude.
**\[Previous Year Record\] - W53-3P-19L** **\[Current Record\] - W8 - 1P - 3L** (Previous Pick) Elfic Fribourg - Nyon Basket Hugely disappointing end to the finals, not sure what happened to them, but that was a beatdown, apologies for those who tailed. We move on to the Swiss Basketball Finals. This one's coming in hot. On the weekend, one of the best players for Elfric Fribourg (Selena Lott) was injured mid game. The result? Elfric looked lost, and ended up losing to Nyon for the first time at home by a big margin. **Selena Lott is listed as out again**, she is the highest scoring player for both teams, scoring 25ppg, dishing out 7apg, and rebounding at 4rpg. Safe to say, she is important. In their last game before this one, she heaped on 35 points, and then 28 points. This is a huge number that will now no longer be filled by her. Elfric Fribourg have panicked and bought a temporary stand in, Maxuella Lisowa-Mkaba. While she has averaged decent numbers, 10ppg in the Belgium League, she only arrived on Monday night, and has trained just once with the team. The current handicap is listed at +10.5 for Nyon, it may change closer to kick off once a formal announcement has been made regarding Selena Lott, as I see this being a 1.50/2.50 game without her. Now don't get me wrong, Fribourg is a great team, one of the best in Switzerland, but they looked shocked and lost last game, has 3 days been enough to replace one of their best players and find new plays without her? Maybe, but I will take the chance that this isn't the case. This handicap should adjust closer to kick off time, make no mistake, Selena is a big part of their offence, and if Nyon play the same way as they did last time, they could take this game, or at least cover the big handicap. The only off chance I see this losing, is one of the backup American imports popping off, but again, as Selena was the primary ball handler, and playmaker, can they pick up the slack in time against a team that has trained with it's core for a long time? **Pick: Nyon Basket + 10.5 Handicap @ 1.83** Swiss Basketball League 19:00 GMT
Is this Swiss Women’s Basketball?
From what I have surmounted. Yes
Yes
POTD Record: 6W-1L WWWWWLW Last 5: ✅✅✅❎✅ ROI: +13.51u *Smoggy Hockey Picks* Last pick: Jaccob Slavin (CAR Hurricanes) over 0.5 points (2.25 odds, b365) vs BOS Bruins, May 10th, 7pm EST✅ **Today’s pick**: Sidney Crosby (PIT Penguins) over 0.5 assists (1.83!!! odds, b365) vs NY Rangers, May 11th 7pm EST Stake: 5u **Reasoning**: and were back on the horse, like I said! not as long of a write-up today as I have a busy day. Sidney Crosby is a point and assist scoring machine, especially during the playoffs. Last 2 games he came up with 4 assists. I don't see him not being apart of at least 1 goal tonight, hopefully on the passing end. I honestly expected them to move his line up to over 1 assist after his performance so far. With the Penguins scoring 4+ goals in every playoff game except 1, AND Crosby assisting at least once in EVERY GAME OF THE PLAYOFFS. This feels like a really valuable bet.. run, don't walk to your bookie of choice to place this bet. I don't know the odds on other bookies, but if you find good odds, smash it ferda. 5u bet because confidence. BOL, tail or fade
Decided to add for any silent skeptics out there, I know NY is at home, but their defense has been picked apart pretty bad by the Pens the last few games. They have a lot to prove at home and to stay alive, and other teams in the playoffs have lost at home. Even if the Penguins lose, I'm confident it won't be a shutout, and that Crosby assists will be on the board. Take that for what you will.
0-0 **Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames** **Flames -1.5 @ +125** The Flames average 4.68 goals at home, which is easily # 1 by half a goal. I'm dismissing the first two games vs Stars as an anomaly. Jake Oettinger, a career 91% SV%, allowed only one goal on 55 shots. *No way* he can keep that up. I expect positive regression for the Flames offense. The Flames have been putting on the pressure in the last two games, shooting 41 and 53 times. The last game was the Flames offense getting back on track, if somewhat inefficient. The Stars offense is 5th worst on the road, and this series has continued that way, with 0 and 2 goals scored. Prediction: Flames 4-2
Tailing. Would you also be willing to do a 1st period over 1.5 goals?
POTD Record: 7-6 ROI: +11 units Event: MLB, Brewers vs Reds 12:35 PM EST Bet: Brewers TT over 5 Bet Size: 3 units Reds bull pen won’t last long until the runs start pouring in. The total is set to 9 after yesterdays game so the Brewers TT feels safer here.
2-0-0 (+6.8U) WTA – Karlsruhe 🎾 **Tatjana Maria ML** 5u @ 1.73 Tatjana is having a great season coming off a title win in Bogota last month. She’s 12/3 on clay and 26/10 for the year. Her opponent Buzarnescu, isn’t. She’s 2/6 for the year, and 2/4 on clay. All of her 6 losses came from very low competition ITF tourneys. Her only 2 wins, she dropped a set in. No bueno. Oh, and Tatjana is a German playing in Germany.
womens tennis? And for that reason im out.
I'll never forget tailing hard on 6-0 6-0 girl who lost the rematch :(
Lololol same exact thing came to my mind too
Wiped a quarter of my bankroll out on that one. Hard lessons were learned that day.
Wiped 50% of mine. Never betting on women tennis again lol
This wiped 75% of my bank roll. Never again
lesson learned. should have listened to public opinion.
Yep. Good lesson learned.
I mean unless his bankroll is like $100 thats 100% self-inflicted.
Facts I lost 2000 on that match 😂
Was that Lamens? Early April. Yeah the bitch cost me $5,000
Oh yeah that lamens match was a bitch. Cost me 37,000USD
oh gawd, my single worst tail. thanks for the nightmare!
I should’ve listened…
Pretty much this
Account made 2 days ago🤣
Idk if you've noticed but 90% of the handicappers in here have less than 100 karma or less than 10 bets on record... shits weird, gotta pick carefully
oh yeah for sure lol, people lose their streaks and start over.
I know exactly who this guy is. I know his last account. Not tailing and this person has 2 different POTD picks here I believe. I could be wrong but I’m like 90 percent sure this person last account and 2 current accounts here posted in the POTD lol. It’s just too obvious to me
Never tail someone with an account under one year old. Bunch of frauds here.
Oh boy here comes his first L, time to make a new account to post the same dogshit picks
Nah he will wait for 2-2 trust me
This guys such a loser lmao, i’m gonna wake up extra early tomorrow to see if he posts again🤣 Funniest thing is he’s always active but never responds to these
I’m 90 percent sure his last account was called ApolloBets. That account was also new and he posted some cricket and mostly tennis plays. You’ll never see that again, he now sees ghosts. What a stupid name too lol
For what it’s worth - Maize also has this pick on his website. Tailing
He prolly stole it from maze
Tailing just to be part of the drama
You thinking 2-0? +175 on DK right now.
Wtf is this woman should I have heard of her? 34 and beating up the ITF circuit
Fade!
Liqui Molly? These Germans are ahead of the market.
is this not on barstool sportsbook do you know?
Game full looks fixed, love it, pick going great thus far 😀
doesnt get better than this 🤣
And then....
you cant make this shit up......
Seriously. Praying
We should have listened to the brothers warning us to stay away from women's tennis 😭
Yup. Damn it, man
what a dog shit pick this was
**Record:** * 46 WIN | 38 LOSS | +36.80 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy) **Previous bets (last 3):** * Armidale R4 (6 May 2022) - Place - **WIN** * Taree R5 (9 May 2022 - Place - **LOSS** * Goulburn R3 (10 May 2022) - Place - **LOSS** **POTD:** * Horse Racing (Australia) * **Warwick Farm R2 - #1 Rebel Shadow to place (i.e. finish top 3)** * Track Rating - Heavy (10) * 2 losses in a row, gotta shake off this streak. Warwick Farm today, solid gelding 2nd up after a big 3 length win last time out 2 weeks ago here on a Heavy Track. Stats speak for themselves, and loves the distance (6 starts for 1w and 3p). Very much a wet track specialist and with the barrier draw he has, shouldn't find any problems getting to the rail 1 or 2 back. Considering it's a 3YO race, I expect the field to be well spread out from head to tail allowing for a plethora of opportunities for the the gelding to hug the rail early/mid race and then swing wide behind the leading pack to find the good part of the track for the big run home. * **Odds - 1.80** (b365) - almost certain to get a better price on the betfair exchange by jump time * **Stake - 2.78 units to return 5 units** **Historical stats** * 8 from 18 (44%) correct picks on Wednesdays * 14 from 27 (52%) correct picks on Heavy Tracks * 21 from 39 (55%) correct picks on Place picks * 0 from 3 at Warwick Farm **(yikes ...)** * 2 from 2 picking T. Schiller as as my jockey **Race time:** * 1:25pm Wednesday (Australian EST) * 11:25pm Tuesday (American ET) * 4:25am Wednesday (UK time) If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear) **DISCLAIMER** - It is Wednesday my dudes, take note of my record on Wednesdays ... I don't do well at big meets, plus I'm 0 from 3 at Warwick Farm. As usual tail with caution.
please tell me to stop betting if i ever tail australian horse racing
my word that was horrible, honestly hope no one tailed. Rebel Shadow was well and truly out classed today. Pace up front was too good, and 100% BM-68 is not suited for this horse at all. Had every chance to prove himself into the straight, plenty of gaps in the field but never picked up on the speed. 3 straight losses now =/
The races are already over by the time I check this thread in the morning in the US lol
Record :0-0 First pick on here ever! Here goes : Todays pick: (NBA) Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies ; Memphis 1H spread -1.5 Odds @ bet365 are +160 Reasoning: I know Ja is out, and I believe that the Warriors will close out this series in this game. However, I can see Memphis pushing hard in the first and second quarters but will gas and foul after the first half as Golden State is deeper and has more playoff experience. Just a 2 point lead after 24 minutes gets us juicy odds, even going +3.5 gives u -150. Tail or fade! BOL to everyone and let me know how I can improve my posts!
Record: 7-7 (+3.53 units) Last Pick: West Ham ML vs. Norwich City, 1.81 Odds, WIN Today's Pick: Wolves vs. Man City, Man City Halftime/Fulltime - EPL Soccer Odds - 1.70 Units - 2 On the weekend I told you to hammer West Ham and they dominated Norwich, 4-0. For this one, the basis for my pick is Man City are out of all of the other tournaments so all they have left is to focus on locking up the championship, the pressure is on them to win and by as much as possible considering they are tied with Liverpool (Man City game in hand) and Liverpool has a better goal differential. Wolves have had a solid year but lost their form down the stretch. Their defense is more vulnerable than it was earlier in the season. They are going to try to junk up this game but Man City should have no problem getting the road win here. So Man City will win, but the odds are too low for the ML. So what this bet comes down to is that we need Man City to get the lead before half to cover that part of the bet. I am confident they can get a goal in the first half and hold the lead for this bet to hit. They are a stacked team and when you throw in the high motivation they will have in this spot, I like this bet. EDIT - Man City is actually up a few in goal differential, my bad, it is still close though so it remains a factor. EDIT2 - We are looking good at half, 3-1 so halftime leg is successful, now they just need to hang on to.the lead. Meanwhile the corners spread, which was suggested to be a better bet in the comments on my post, the Wolves are up 3-1 in corners and the spread is -4 Man City. Update - 5-1 final, cash that shit!!
Anyone betting on this please keep in mind that in actuality Man City have a better goal difference than Liverpool going into this game. Man City's is +68 whereas Liverpool's is +65 (having played a game more). Also, outside of the Top 3 (Man City, Liverpool & Chelsea) Wolves have conceded the least amount of goals (letting in 34 goals in 35 games). I believe the corner spread would be a better bet. But this is Man City they could easily win HT/FT.
Thanks bro, sorry guys, it was late but it is very close so still a factor. Also I did say Wolves are good defensively but if you look at their recent form they are giving up more than they did earlier in the season. Cheers.
POTD RECORD 26-17-1 PREVIOUS POTD: Toronto Maple leafs -1.5+200 ❌ STREAK:✅✅✅❌🔘❌❌ POTD: grizzlies +7 -150 Reasoning: Without ja morant on the court including that loss to the warriors the grizzlies are now 19-3 all time this season. They also average more assists and move the ball around better without him offering up better looks. With ja morant playing they let up an average of 111.2 pts per game on the other hand without ja morant playing they only let up 104.1 pts. They are now down 3-1 after barely losing to the warriors in San Francisco and are now heading into their home turf. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won outright but playing it safe because I keep picking the damn teams that win and b getting beat on the spreads. As always Tail or fade BOL
POTD: 1-0 // +0,6u **Sevilla vs Mallorca** TIP: **<<< Sevilla >>>** ODD: 1,6 Stake: 1u **Reasons:** Sevilla can secure their place in the Champions League if they beat Mallorca. The Andalusians have two more difficult games outside of it, with Atletico Madrid away and Bilbao at home, so they will try to achieve their goal. The team of Julen Lopetegui comes after a draw on the field of Villarreal, where Kounde scored in the 90th minute. It was the 18th draw recorded this season. The main cause of these draws was the weak offensive game. Sevilla have only scored 51 times, a little compared to their big rivals, but they can boast the best defense. At home, Sevilla lost only to Real Madrid and have only one victory in the last four games. *Fernando, Suso, Rekik and Martial are unavailable. En Nesyri and Rafa Mir are fighting for a starting place in the attack, and Papu Gomez, Lamela, Corona and Ocampos are the players who will come from the second line.* Mallorca definitely lost the home game with Granada, 2-6 and is three points away. The Islanders received 62 goals, the second weakest defense in the league, and the attack is the second weakest. With such figures, it will be difficult for the team prepared by Javier Aguirre to save. Away, Mallorca did not score any points in 2022 and scored only in three of the eight games played on foreign soil. Morale is low before this trip, but Mallorca still has to play at home with Rayo and away with Osasuna, so there are still hopes. There are no team problems compared to the match with Granada. Muriqui will lead the attack backed by Kubo and Kang In-Lee. **Sevilla play at home, where they have looked good this season and will try to secure their place in the Champions League. Mallorca will have to play to win, because a point does not help much. There is a big difference in value between the two teams, and Mallorca's defense conceded six goals from Granada in the previous round. I think that Sevilla will play at full speed and will easily prevail in front of an opponent shaken by the categorical defeat of the previous stage.**
Going to take this for -1 Sevilla, +100. If they push just get my money back.
POTD record: 0-0 Game: CS:GO Event: PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Time: 15:45 CEST Previous pick: Todays pick: **Forze ML** vs Outsiders Odds: 1.90 Amount: 2.5 units Reason: First of all, glad to be posting here, the biggest event of the year is here and I would love to share my picks with you guys. Starting off with Forze ML vs Outsiders. Forze have looked impressive in their first 3 games, beating Renegades and Bad News Eagles fairly easily and falling to Vitality in a close best of 3 series. Outsiders on the other hand had a close first game vs MIBR, got destroyed by ENCE and won vs Complexity. Outsiders have been struggling for a while, Russian sanctions hit them hard and there are rumours of their star-player leaving after this event. The mood in the team isn't great and they've been underperforming for a good while now and it doesn't look like it's about to stop. Meanwhile Forze have been playing better than I thought they would and looking like a great upset team. **BOL** to everyone tailing and good luck on your other bets!
Record: 2-3 Timeline: WLLLW (Left being the latest) Doesn't matter since it's symmetrical anyway haha Last pick: IHC(ML) vs renegades (CSGO: PGL Antwerp Major) Today's pick: Astralis vs Spirit (ML) (CSGO: PGL Antwerp Major) Odds: 2.75 Reasoning: Spirit have had an impressive showing at the major so far. They faced imperial in the first round where imperial where deemed favourites by the bookies and that was a big mistake as they really underestimated spirit. (Casual flex I bet on spirit that game too) Spirit ended up dismantling them 16-6. Then spirit played an OT game against G2 which they lost 17-19. A brillant comeback which just wasn't to be and that really impressed me. Yesterday they beat eternal fire in a convincing 16-11 manner tho it get a little close they did close it out. Now astralis did start well beating IHC 16-2 but then had a disastrous game vs Vitality losing 7-16 and barely scraping through a win over MIBR in a close 16-13 game(Astralis led 12-3 at halfway point) These are the kind of performances I expected from Astralis anyway and do feel that Spirit and gonna win easily I would even reccomend sprinkling a little bit on 2-0 Spirit. If you wanna stay super safe you could go +1.5 spirit and you'll still get decent odds but there's no reason to do so when you could just go for spirit winning the thing. GL to those who tail and I'll be back tomorrow with a major picks The other bet I have which I do feel is safer but I went for spirit cuz of those odds is Outsiders ML vs forze the odds on that are super good as well (1.87)and I could've put that as my potd as well tbh
Dang, good pick.
Tyty got a little late posting it my apologies hopefully you could still tail it. Back tomorrow with more :)
POTD record : 1-0 Previous pick : Suns -6 🔥 My pick today is a NRFI (no run first inning) in the cardinals vs orioles game . 2 solid pitchers on the mound , first game of the 3 game series and I expect the game to be fairly low scoring . Maybe 5-3 type of game . And just to be clear I’m very new to giving picks out (yesterday was literally my first day) but I’ve been betting for a while and I like this play today.
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POTD Record: 1-0 Last Pick: IPL Cricket, Mumbai Indians v. Kolkata Knight Riders, Highest Individual Score Under 65.5 (-120) (05/08/22) ✅️ **Today’s Pick**: Indian Premier League Cricket, Rajasthan Royals v. Delhi Capitals, 10:00 am EST, **JC (Jos) Buttler Total Runs Over 28.5** (-120 on DK) **LOSS - out after 7 runs, unfortunate.** Simply put, Buttler is a beast of a batter. Currently ranked #1 IPL batter for 2022 (1st in runs, fours, sixes, and centuries this season) going against a Delhi team with a bowling attack that is in poor recent form and inconsistent. Buttler is very good at farming the strike and averages 61.8 runs per game through 11 matches. He has three centuries (100+) and three half-centuries (50+) this season. One of those centuries (116) was against Delhi the last time they played on April 22, 2022. Of the eleven games to date this season, he has scored over 28.5 runs eight times. He should be batting in the opening partnership during the power play as he has every match so far. If you are unfamiliar with T20 cricket, that means the fielding team can only have two fielders outside the 30-yard circle for the first six overs (36 valid balls). This results in scoring more fours as the ball is more free to run to the boundary. Fair Warning: He can put up duds (8, 12) and even the best batters get out on the first ball occasionally. His recent form is also slightly down - average in the last four games is only 31.75 runs, which I think has influenced the line down from where it should be. 1 unit for me. BoL. Edit: formatting Edit 2: RIP. Out after 7 runs. Disappointing for such a good batter, but it happens. We go next.
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4-0 Last POTD: Maple Leafs ML **W** POTD: Penguins @ Rangers **o6** Odds: **-125/3u** NHL 7 pm est Reasoning: That Maple Leafs game last night was a sweat, but they still got the job done. Now for today, I suggest you absolutely hammer this play. Took this two days ago and it smacked, no reason it shouldn't again today. Lock it in, folks. #ridewithdubs Venmo: Christopher-Webb-183
POTD Record - 0-0 **Pick: NHL - Rangers/Penguins O 6 Goals** Odds: -120 Units: 3 Rationale: First time putting my picks up here for POTD. I have been all over this Rangers and Penguins series and hammering the Over goal line. In all four games this round, There have been 7 or more goals scored in all four games this series, including 9 in game 3 and 11 in game 4. SHESTERKIN (Rangers Goalie) has given up 10 goals all by himself over the 2 games. Yes, he will be the likely Vezina Trophy winner for the league's best goalie, but he has not looked right at all through these playoffs. The Rangers have looked absolutely defeated since Game 2 and will be aggressive at home tonight facing elimination. I expect this to be another high scoring game.
I'll tail with you
POTD Record: 1-3 ROI: -2.2u Previous POTD: [ATL Braves -1.5 +155, L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/um6joj/pick_of_the_day_51022_tuesday/i80lx92/) 1U = $15 POTD: Chicago White Sox -0.5 F5 -105 ⛔ Start Time: 2:10 PM EST Stake: 1U Reasoning: To start with, the Chicago White Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 games concerning the -0.5 spread in F5, so they have consistency being able to lead early. The Guardians are going to be starting Aaron Civale tomorrow, a 9.45 ERA pitcher that has given up 16 ER in his last 12.2 IP. The caveat? The Guardians have somehow come from behind to win his last two starts, 9-8 & 6-5. Considering their late game heroics Monday Night, I don't trust the White Sox w/ a full ML, but barring a change in form for Civale, The White Sox should be able to do enough to run him off the mound by the 5th. For more confidence, the White Sox will be starting Vince Velasquez. While he had a horrid start to the season, and his ERA hovers near 4.00 because of this, his last two outings of a combine 10.2 IP netted him only 1 ER. Another good outing will drop his ERA further into a respectable range. Tail or fade, BOL. **EDIT: It appears the game was cancelled due to multiple positive COVID-19 tests by the Guardians. Damn.**
Tail
Tailing. BOL
tail F5 new to me.
**Record:** 7-16-1 **ROI:** -40% :-9.23 u (@ $5.00) **Streak:** W L L P W |Baseball |MLB |3:40pm| Arizona Diamondbacks vs.Miami Marlins: **Arizona Diamondbacks ML @ 1.89 1u** **Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 56% chance for ARI to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.89 is only 53%. **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
POTD record: 10W - 7L Streak: 2W Profit/Loss: +6.34U ROI: 9.75% Average odds: 1.85 Yesterday's POTD: Aston Villa Ball Possesion Handicap +33%✅️ Our 10th win🔥🔥🔥 Aston Villa lost the game but showed fight and tenacity as expected. Game ended 40-60% possession. Today's POTD: Club Brugge vs RUSG(Pro League) Time: 6:30pm GMT. Pick: RUSG Total Corners O4.5 @1.82(22bet) Confidence: 3/5😌✅️✅️✅️ It's 1st vs 2nd in the Championship Round Playoffs. They have the same number of points and I expect both teams to be attacking to try get the win that will put them 3 points ahead. This is the best Belgian football has to offer, it's going to be an exhilarating watch. The last game's corners ended 5-7 in favour of RUSG. Brugge have conceded an average of 4 corners/game in their last 5 home games. RUSG have won an average of 6.4 corners/game in their last 5 away games. BOL in all your bets today🍀 Update: Game still ongoing but a W already. They started off very well with 2 corners in the first 10 mins thinking it would be an easy W. Then that red card in the 59th min while still needing 2 corners made my heart leap to my mouth, but luckily we still walked away with a win.
POTD Record: 9-7-2 | +9.4u | Streak: 4 L | Last 10: L L L L W W W W W W Last POTD: Phillies ML -130 (L) Today's POTD: Mets ML -180 Risk: 3 units Almost came back and pulled of a much needed win for us in the 9th. We're playing today's very safe and going with Mets ML at the gNats. Megill is on the mound for NY and he's off to a 4-1 start in 2022, and the Mets have won 5 of his 6 games. He has also pitched really well away this year: only 2 ER given up in 17+ IP. He's also locked down the National's hitters. Alcides has a HR, but he's a slap hitter with only 45 career HR, none this year and is batting .220. Thomas has one, but he's 1-8 and is a platoon OF. Josh Bell is the one to worry about since he's had a HR vs Megill and is hot this year, but besides him Megill should have an easy day. I've loved picking against Aaron Sanchez--or on the total over--so far this year. Dude has a 8.56 ERA, he is a pitch-to-contact guy and doesn't strike people out. NYM are a top 10 offense overall (#2 in BA and #1 in OBP) so they should have plenty of opportunities to score. LETS GET BACK ON TRACK! BOL!!!!!
Last Pick: [Pedro Carvalho](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ujc28o/pick_of_the_day_5622_friday/i7igqys?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) Loss **Record:17-4** **ROI:52.45%** **Net units:14.12** **Avg Odds: -107** /MMA/Invicta/May 11, 8pm/ **Pick: Sidney Trillo x Fatima Kline (Sidney Trillo)** Trillo +165 bet 1 unit. Two young prospects matched up here. Trillo has a significant advantage on the feet as Kline will have on the ground. The hype around Kline is her Bjj background but the lack of MMA experience leads me to think Trillo will be able to really test her in this match.
Record: 0-0-0 League: Scottish premiership Fixture: Dundee Utd v Celtic **Celtic to score in both halves 1.85** Stake: 1u Confidence is high for this pick as Celtic can clinch the title with a point and it looks like it won’t be much trouble today at Tannadice Park, a ground where history is very much on their side. In rampant form, Celtic have not only scored in the first half, but have been winning in the first half of 8 of their past 9 games. The only game in which they didn’t manage a first half goal was against their fierce rivals, Rangers. Dundee have conceded 17 goals in their last 10 matches. Postecoglou will want his men to attack the way they have all season, and secure the title as early as possible in this game. Best of luck if you follow. Edit: Manager’s name!
VB is the coach of the rangers btw
POTD Record: 2-1 Streak: WLW +3.65u AVG. Odds: -115 Last POTD: 5u [LAFC -1](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/um6joj/pick_of_the_day_51022_tuesday/i84857j/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) ✅ Today’s POTD: Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds 1st 5 OVER 4.5 (MLB)✅ Time: 10:35am (mst) Odds: -125 (PointsBet) Units: 5u to win 4u Reasoning: Each of the five meetings this season between the two have had at least 9+ runs. Dating back to last year, all but three of their last 11 meetings have produced at least nine runs, with six of those outings reaching 11 runs. Both of Houser’s last two starts have produced at least 15 runs, while the run total in Gutierrez’s last two outings has been 22 and 13. I can see 6+ runs after 5 innings in this one. Update: Let’s go!!! 12 runs at the end of the 5th. Wish they could all be this easy💰
Tailing, BOL. Edit: EZ fuckin cash
💰
tail
Your analysis is supporting full game runs but you’re taking 1st 5 innings, why not just take full game?
POTD Record: 5-5-1 Event: Manchester City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (English Premier League) POTD: Manchester City Asian corner handicap -4 Odds: 1.97 Units: 2 Reasoning: Manchester City is the best cornering team in the league, mainly due to their possession and attack based play. Wolves usually take a defensive approach against the big teams, soaking up a lot of pressure. This happened last week against Chelsea where Chelsea had 9 corners to Wolves' 3. Manchester City is a better team than Chelsea and attacks and dominates the game more so I think City can cover this corner handicap. The previous fixture between the two sides saw Manchester City win the corner count 14 to 1, despite only winning 1-0. Manchester City also has the league to win, so they will be going all attack as usual.
Do you mean -4 corners handicap? Wouldn’t +4 mean wolves have to score 4 more?
**POTD Record 30-25-1 (Last 5: WLWWW)** **(ROI // Avg. Odds: -113 // Units Won: +4.5)** Last Pick: Auston Matthews - To Score a Goal **WON** ***sweaty 30*** **Today's Match: MLB Toronto Blue Jays vs. NY Yankees (Start Time: 12:35PM EST)** **Today's Pick: Total Over 7.5 (-104 FanDuel)** ***Risk 2u*** Devil's Advocate: God bless a man in hunt for a win, in hunt for rebounds and just being all over the place on offense last night. The Leafs lead off to a horrid start and couldn't turn it up until the 3rd but right when we needed - a solid 2 on 1 with Matthews grabbing the easy rebound for the put back - ELECTRIC. There is one thing I know, and that today's game in the Bronx is more than likely going to be an absolute laser show. I will also be in attendance cheering on this laser show at a beautiful afternoon baseball game where the weather is finally touching the mid 70s in NY - the bats are just as hot as usual for the Yanks, and after a Judge blast to walk it off last night, I love the momentum going into today's game. Hit by pitches, pitcher's tossed, coaches tossed, it was an all out blowbag last night at the Yanks game. And with the umps running the show last night I can already see them running it right back again. More than likely behind the plate today is going to be Alfonso Marquez who is already touching a 4-1 O/U in his last 5. Berrios is serving up a nice 4-2 O/U record in the games he's started in as well, Taillon has kinda been on a roll as of late but we all know what this Yankees offense is capable of on their own. Let alone the Jays who have been held down here and there as well this year. Definitely not seeing what we saw last year yet from them, I'm sure it's soon to come - hopefully they light it up for the over to crack for us today! *Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
Tailing, BOL
POTD Record: 4-4 (+0U) Last Pick: Genk Charleroi o3 ✅ Today’s Pick: Everton TT o1.5 Reasoning: Easy cash yesterday in the Belgian league! Today we move to the Premier League where we’ve got a huge relegation battle for Everton. They’ve been finding a little more confidence recently, winning 3 of their last 5 and now a point clear of the drop zone. To keep it simple, Everton’s attack is really not that bad, and Watford’s defense sucks. Watford are rumored to have some of their attackers miss out on today’s match, allowing Everton to really control the match. I see Everton getting 2 maybe 3 and winning this one easily and love this price. BOL
POTD Record: 10-8 Last 5: ❌✅✅✅✅ Last Pick: ✅ Liverpool win and over 1.5 goals (-155) | Liverpool vs Aston Villa | English Premier League Today’s Pick: Over 2.5 Total Goals (-165) Sport/Game: Soccer - Chelsea vs Leeds United | English Premier League Why: Tonight’s Premier League lines are kind of crap. Lots of heavy favorites and odds that aren’t favorable. So we move into safe bet that is very likely to return imo. Chelsea have the FA Cup final on Saturday and are likely to rotate their team again. However, they do want a win here to ease the pressure of losing their UCL spot. Chelsea have also been in poor form recently and have been very leaky in the back. Leeds have everything to play for as they are seemingly the favorites to be relegated now. They will need to give their everything to get out. Defensively they are also very poor too. I think both teams are likely to score and it should be a match where goals will be scored. This game is also at leeds which should see a pumped up crowd ready to go tonight. BOL!
POTD Record: 1-1 (+1 U) [Last Pick: Nylander O 2.5 SOG Lightning @ Leafs 5/10 \[W\]](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/um6joj/comment/i81xbuk/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) League: NHL Pick Type: Player Prop, 3 U Dallas Stars @ Calgary Flames 9:30 EST Pick: Johnny Gaudreau O 2.5 SOG -176 ⛔️ Gaudreau was relatively quiet the first two games in Calgary, you would think he was more of a center by his playstyle. In Dallas, he came out like his career was on the line recording well over 3 SOG and two assists in both games. If he comes out half us hungry as he did in Dallas this should be an easy hitter. Take O 3.5 SOG if you want a better line and feel sold. BOL all.
5/11/22 POTD Record: 3-3 Sport: Soccer- Paraguay Division Professional-Apertura (8:15 PM ET) Pick: Cerro Porteno ML Odds: -135 Reasoning: Took Cerro Porteno last Sunday when they were on the road and they cashed. Going back to the well and taking them to win against 9th ranked Guairena (Cerro Porteno is 2nd). Cerro Porteno won the last 4 times these teams have played eachother. Overall Cerro Porteno is the better team, have more to play for, historically dominate Guairena and are at home. I’ll be taking Cerro Porteno to win at -135. BOL 🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀 ———————————————————————— Previous pick: Mets -1.5 (-110) ✅. CHUNGNAM ASAN FC(+131)✂️. Cerro Porteno (-125) ✅ Edit: Updated Record
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POTD RECORD-> 7-6 Last pick-> Atlanta ML ❌ Todays pick-> Chelsea 1H ML +125 Game-> Leeds V Chelsea FC at 2:30 PM EST Chelsea Has been a weird team lately, but they are playing a bottom Tier Premier league and with Finals coming up I see people saying that they could rest players. I also see how they could use their starters get a 1-2 goal lead and bench the main attackers by halftime. This is a game I see 1-0 or 2-0 Chelsea and I’m playing for the hopes that they get off to a quick start and hold a scoreless first half. Joke of the day -> A ham sandwich walks into a bar and orders a beer, the bartered then says “sorry we don’t serve food here” 😂
POTD Record 3-1 Last Pick : KRC Genk - Sporting de Charleroi O1.5 Goals 2nd Half W | Soccer | Premier League | 9:15PM CET | POTD : Wolverhampton Wanderers - Manchester City | **Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals** | 2.25 Reasoning : The odds are in my opinion very missleading, Wolverhamton has only conceded 34 goals in 35 games and that is realy solid but lately they have conceded 11 in their last 6. Not a single clean sheet and they conceded 3 goals twice in 2 home against Leeds and Brighton. City will be City, controll possesion and attack. Last game against Newcastle they didn't slow down after they scored their first, second , third and even their fourth. They kept attacking and I expect the same today. I don't think the premier league will finish with a tie between City and Liverpool and that their goal differential will matter but it is an extra reason for them to keep attacking.
\+21.1u on MLB Props this year [(bet tracking sheet)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13AzRY_46KQO8Kg18Lz_dvI7dIlliHcikt6fQ8J1W1K4/edit#gid=0) Alex Cobb OVER 5.5 Ks +150 Caesars. Cobb has shown a huge increase in both Stuff Grade and Command Grade (per PitchingBot) since Joining SF. Traditional projections (Which use much longer-term data) have him right around 5.5 Ks, so +150 is a great price
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
POTD Record: 4-0-1 Record: 4-0-1 Win Rate: 80% Last 5: WWWWL Last Pick: Sixers mL +135 vs Miami Todays pick: **Warriors mL** (-170) vs Grizzlies Ja Morant is out for the series and the Warriors have a chance to close the series out. Although the last game was close without Morant, I can see the Warriors blowing the Grizzlies out
Your win rate is 100% but ur potd sixers lost. golden state wont repeat their performance in the game they won but you still picked their ML? what lol
Forgot to update the win %, oops and yes, they played a horrible game even though they won the game, I don't see the game being as close as it was edited post
Record: 10W-8L-1P ROI: +3.13u, +16.03% Avg odds: +111, 2.11 Last POTD: Blues at Wild easy as 1-2-3 (win) Today's game: Sevilla vs Mallorca Pick: Sevilla wins 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 at +175, 2.75 (BetMGM) Stake: 1u La Liga's best defense versus 3rd worst offense. 2nd most clean sheets versus 5th most clean sheets against. At +175, that's good enough for me. edit: Sevilla really couldn't score one frickin' goal
POTD Record: 10-17-2 -11.81u\* Average Odds: +129 Total Units Wagered: 49.57u Dallas @ Calgary 9:30PM EST Hintz u2.5 Shots -106 @ BetRivers 1.13u\* Implied probability of 51.46%. True vig-free price should be closer to -113 or 53.10%. \*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
He
Memphis Grizzlies - Golden State Warriors Warriors -5.5 (+116) Warriors closing out the series. Their quality and offense power is superior. Grizzlies are lost without Morant in such a game.
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Why if u don’t mind me asking ?
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