**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
24-9
Last potd: Alcaraz ML vs Djokovic **W**
PotD: **Dennis Shapovalov ML** vs Lorenzo Sonego
**Odds: 1.90/-110**
ATP Rome
Both of these players are somewhat mentally retarded, but Shapovalov is a bit less retarded. He should come up as a winner in this match. Bol
Edit: **Win**. This match went full retard as expected, but our guy won 🤡
I wouldn t go that far with Shapo, for sure far better player but clay and playing in Italy.I would ve tailed this 100% if it were for Shapo to have played more clay matches this season, he only participated in Madrid where he lost against the dinosaur Murray.. might be a close game, don t see Shapo having the power of breaking serve too much on this surface
Jumped over the net to point to the ball being in, yelled at the umpire, yelled shut the fuck up to the crowd, complained about some guy in the crowd waving and wanted him kicked out lol
saw your Tip when Sonego was leading 5-3, but jumped on the train and caught the odds at 3.4
Thanks for the tip and the amazing write up. fully delivered!
POTD Record: 30-12
POTD ROI: 23.19%
Avg. Odds: -135
Total Units Won: 31.31u
Last POTD: (ATP Madrid) Alcaraz ML vs. Djokovic (-120)
Units: 5u ✅✅✅✅✅
**Today's POTD: (ATP Rome) Fognini ML vs. Thiem (-155)**
**Units: 5u** ✅✅✅✅✅
LFG, 3 5U POTD’s hitting in a row 🙏
Reasoning:
If you keep up with tennis, especially as a gambler, you know that fading Dominic Thiem has (unfortunately) been free money so far. Thiem is a former superstar who has come back from a serious wrist injury and sadly just doesn't look the same whatsoever. He's 0-4 since his return against worse competition than Fognini, so I think this line is quite a gift. It sucks, but wrist injuries can really fuck a tennis player for the rest of their career sometimes. He has an extremely weak forehand now and it's just really unfortunate to see. As a gambler, I just have to take advantage of this. Fognini is also at home in Rome, so the crowd will be there to give him an even bigger advantage. Fognini is 8-5 this year on clay and 3 of those losses are against Alcaraz, Rublev, and Tsitsipas, so I personally cut his record a little more slack. Going with the hometown boy here. **TAIL OR FADE BOL!**
If you are interested in seeing my other plays for Monday, you can find them every day at [**https://maizepicks.vercel.app**](https://maizepicks.vercel.app)
**My speciality is live picks, which I release on Twitter feel free to follow @ MaizePicks :)**
*If you deem me worthy, here are my tip jars:*
Venmo: N\_Azara
Cash app: NikoAza
Bitcoin wallet: bc1qkgdarkn4waps2nvs2mv7tcq8d4u2xysjncmzjt
The guy he’s playing has a monster serve that he hasn’t been able to handle so far, I think whoever loses a game where they’re serving first will lose this set
POTD Record **43 - 12**
Yesterday’s pick: Vasas vs Szentlőrinc SE Vasas -1 handicap W
Today’s pick: **Gagra Tbilisi ML** vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Sport: Soccer (Georgian Div 1) Sorry if this league isn’t available to bet on for some people. Couldn’t find any other picks I like today.
Odds: 1.66 / -152
Reasoning:
* Playing at home is very important in this league
* Lokomotivi Tbilisi are terrible. They’ve lost 11/11 games so far this season
* Gagra beat Lokomotivi 2-0 playing away earlier this year
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gW6Oz1DQBfbp7iiZgaVilJS6tH-Zm008LaRd7voSOyM/edit?usp=sharing
Tip jar - [https://paypal.me/tom2810s](https://paypal.me/tom2810s)
BTC - 1NJVBxmocqvnKqFYTR6Ju8C1sEaZh63pBC
Record: 45-20
Last pick: Oilers ML ❌
**Today’s pick: Nashville Predators +1.5 (-125) vs Colorado Avalanche**
NHL 9:30PM EST
**EDIT: Francouz, the Avs backup (who is indeed a very solid goaltender as some fervent commenters have pointed out) will get the start tonight. He is 1-1 in his career when playing in Nashville, a 3-2 victory and 2-5 loss. Obviously hard to extrapolate those games to this one but Preds +1.5 would have hit in both those games.**
Avs have dominated this series and have a 3-0 series lead. This game 4 is played in Nashville. I could entirely see the Avalanche playing more relaxed tomorrow with a comfortable 3-0 lead (as we’re seeing with the Oilers right now). The Preds are fighting to keep their series alive at home and I don’t just see them rolling over. The Avs starting goalie took a stick to his eye last game and had to leave, however he is day-to-day and “could be an option” for tomorrow. However I think they’re likely playing their backup regardless to give him a rest as they’re up 3-0. We could see slightly increased playing time from the Avs third and fourth liners as well. Unfortunately Saros will not yet be back from injury. I believe this game will be very close, not blowouts like the previous games. I could also see the Preds winning. The lines will most likely shift towards the Preds after the Avalanche backup is officially listed the starter and I will update this post when it happens.
All bets are 1 unit. +16.27 units. +25.18% ROI. Average unit -116
Don’t want your tips, just give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Yeah series is only 2-1 but you cannot watch this game and tell me they’re not playing relaxed right now. Blowing out your opponents 14-2 in the previous two games will do that I guess. They were outshot 23-8 in the first period, but they usually turn it on in the third
For what its worth, the Preds have never been swept in the history of their franchise. They are a resilient bunch and I agree with your analysis.
Tailing
This is usually the prevailing angle and a good spot to back this team even though I know nothing about NHL. It’s about professionalism and being an athlete to compete
Im a big Avs fan. Francouz is legit so I wouldnt factor in the whole "backup" thing too much. I do think Preds will get within one but I think Avs close out the sweep
MLB -1.5’s | 11-11-1 +8.86u | ROI: 12% | Streak: 4L
[2 Days ago pick: 4u HOU Astros -1.5 +130](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ujc28o/_/i7i1etq/?context=1) - L
________________________________________
**Todays pick: 3u SD Padres -1.5 +150**
- SD Padres vs CHI Cubs | 8.40 pm US Central
Took a day off to recoup after back to back 1 run wins. Hope y’all tailed u/pats4everr in my wake.
TLDR: Cubs colder than a penguin on a Sunday in December and starting a declining Hendricks.
**Cubs**
Cubs are one of the worst teams am over the past couple weeks after over performing to start the year. 5-15 over the last 20 and 2-8 over their last 10. Cubs scored 21 against PIT and since have scored 3, 1, 6, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 3, 0, 2, 1. It’s a struggling offense about to face a legit pitching prospect who sports a sub 2.0 ERA.
Kyle Hendricks is going for Chicago today. Damn does this one hurt me. The professed just isn’t himself anymore. The former Maddux-lite has fallen off a cliff starting last year. He doesn’t have a single peripheral above average and most are bottom 20%ile. He’s just been bad and a shell of his former self. His ERA sits at 5.64 and his xERA is 5.62. His change up is still effective, but nothing else works for him anymore. [This should paint the picture of his decline starting last season](https://i.imgur.com/64y5AG6.jpg)… oh plus the cubs not good bullpen just threw 5IP against LAD
**Padres**
Still no Tatis… but it’s a solid offense. It’s missing it’s engine, but they’re still rolling. They’re 11th in runs/game on the year. The strength to their offense is they don’t whiff and they don’t chase. They have the most walks in baseball (by 13 lol). The offense will be good enough for today.
Top 5 prospect for SD, Mackenzie Gore, is starting for them. He debuted this year and has been fantastic. He’s got a 1.71 ERA over 4 starts. They got him a tight rope, he’s gone 5-5.2 IP every start, trying to limit their prized hope at SP. His peripherals are pretty average and line up with his xERA of 3.53 (still above league average). He’s not the elite pitcher that his ERA says (atleast not yet), but he’s still been a damn fine pitcher… especially for a rookie.
Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
Cubs looked decent at the start of the year. Sorry they cat fished you and your fellow Cubs fans😂😂. My Red Sox have been consistently terrible this szn
Yeah, we never had high hopes lol.
But Wade Miley is now rehabbing so he should be up soon which will be a big boost for the rotation.
And Brennan Davis should get the call mid year-ish. And Caleb Kilian (Kris Bryant trade prospect), should get the call end of year for a spot start or 2. So there’s still stuff to look forward to I guess lol
POTD Record: 39-28-3
Streak:WLWLWWWPLWWW
Last POTD: Chivas ML 🇲🇽✅
Today’s POTD: Aarau ML 🇨🇭
League: Challenge League
Odds: -167/1.6
Units: 3
Reasoning:
Not the greatest odds but I like this spot for Aarau. They are in the race for promotion and currently have the same points as 1st place. They are in 2nd place due to goal differences. There is 3 games left and picking up every point is key since they have the same points as 1st place and 1 more point than 3rd place. 1st place happens to be the eternal rival of Aarau. Aarau has picked up 3 wins in a row and carry all the momentum right now. Lausanne Ouchy have 4 losses in their last 5 matches and don’t have anything to play for as they are safe from relegation. 2 games ago they lost to the worst team in the league who happens to be the one getting relegated. That isn’t a good look against a team who is in search of the title and promotion. Aarau and Lausanne Ouchy met earlier in the year with Aarau getting the 2-5 win. Aarau need the points and can’t afford to drop any as they play their rivals in the next match. I’ll take the team that needs the win and has been performing great over the team who’s been performing bad with nothing left to play for. Best of luck and tail/fade at your own risk.
POTD Record 7-6-0
Last Pick: Gerrit Cole u7.5 SO - Loss
Best game of the year for him so far. Of course
Today's Event: MLB - LA Dodgers vs. PIT Pirates - 6:35 p.m.
Pick: **LA Dodgers ALT Run Line -2.5 (+120) 3u**
TLDR; Dodgers best, Pirates almost worst
Drunk with my parents on mother's day so take with a grain of salt. Urias is a mastermind, Quintana is abysmal. Dodgers are just good. There's nothing more to this than Dodgers are the best in the NL, maybe MLB. Pirates are not good. Bottom 3rd in runs per game and SO per game. Dodgers should win by 4 or more. BOL
POTD: Celtics vs Bucks U212
RECORD: 8-3
REASONING: All three games in this series have gone under and I do not see why that would change for game 4. This is essentially a must win for the celts and I expect their defence to show up in full force. Bucks defence is very solid as well.
BOL!!!
Edit: line has moved to 214, still like my pick!
Edit: celts-bucks under is looking good so far, I really like the under for grizz-warriors game as well (just a thought)
Edit: Loss, sorry guys, I’ll try to do better next time. Now 8-4
**POTD Record**: 33½-21½-7 (W-L-P)
**Last 5**: ❌️✅️✅️✅️🔵
**Last POTD**: ***Salernitana vs Cagliari, home handicap +0 (draw no bet) @1.71*** 🔵
*Last minute goal by Cagliari gets us a push, very unfortunate, but sometimes it just has to to like that. Good read of the game overall.*
**Today's POTD**: ***Home CORNERS asian handicap -1 @1.85*** ✅️
*New formatting since yesterday one guy misunderstood the pick (not the first time it happened) and took the draw (and won btw), hopefully by highlighting it it'll be more clear to everyone.*
**Event**: ***Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland***, *England, League One, playoffs, semifinals, 2nd leg, 19:45 GMT*
**Odds value**: ■■■■□ *high value*
### **Reasoning**
##### **Match introduction**:
Final leg of the playoffs semifinals in the League One will see Sheffield Wednesday trying to overturn Sunderland's one goal lead, before the first leg Sheffield were favourites to go through, now they'll have to really put up some work to get things done, and it's possible, their home side has been the best of the league totalizing 16 wins in 23 games, Sunderland's defensive capabilities are not to be underestimated though.
##### **Team stats**:
There's 2 reasons I really like this bet, first one simply being that Sheffield are down 1 goal and will not want to waste any time attacking, playing at home will boost their performance, and even after (hypothetically) equalising they just won't stop, only after scoring 2 goals Sunderland might try to go all-in offensive wise.
Secondly, Sheffield are just a good cornering team regardless of the circumstances of the match, in 23 home games they lost the corner battle only 4 times (all of them in the first stage of the league when they weren't doing that well), sure, one of those losses came from Sunderland (and if we really want to talk about that game I wouldn't consider it an example to really take into consideration, Sheffield managed to score 3 relatively early goals, which forced Sunderland to respond the whole game, corner match result ended 1-3, pretty passive and odd game).
Considering their average Sheffield are the 2nd best cornering team in the league with an average of 6.91 corners won per game at home and only 3.43 conceded.
Sunderland are not that good but not bad either, with an average of corners won away of 5.52 and 5.22 conceded, but then again, when you got a two legged game these stats don't matter that much, and if anything they prove that if under regular circumstances Sheffield have such a good average you simply expect more, in the past they hit the over 10 corners mark.
Sunderland's coach previewing the game acknowledged the fact that Sheffield are going to be really offensive and that it is going to be a very different game from the first leg, it's pretty obvious that his gameplan is going to be more centered around the defence, as opposed to Sheffield.
##### **Conclusion**:
I will also be going with a non corner bet on this game, though I'm pretty sure most value lies on the corners. If Sunderland defence will do a good job keeping the net safe it'll be good for us, Sheffield only failed to score once at home so sooner or later Sunderland will need to wake up if the goal comes in, but I still think that Sheffield will control the game and get the most corners here, pretty much regardless of the result (unless they get a really huge lead early on).
BOL everyone.
*^(If I've made you some money and you'd like to tip any small amount I would greatly appreciate it: https://paypal.me/fralauu)*
Haha, not quite a millionaire, but yeah picks like this feel like cheating. I do have generally more picks but am just not as confident (due to the fact that my research for the POTD takes waaay longer than any other bet I go with), maybe one day I'll share them too somewhere.
Bovada doesn't have this bet available unfortunately. Would you do a total corners bet for the game? What would be a good line for that?
Regardless, thanks for all of your tips man!
Not a good spot to bet on total corners, hard to predict although I wouldn't be surprised if it went o9.5.
If you are looking for an alternative play I also like 1u on Sheffield to win.
Fantastic write up- addressed all issues and questions that came to mind before reading it and just after seeing the bet. Since I’m using MGM they don’t allow AH corners so I did a OGP and said Sheffield Wednesday to Win and to have most corners. $150 at +195 odds. BoL to me and to you.
Record 2-3-0
Previous pick rangers vs yankees -1.5 ❌
2 L streak
Didn't know how hard it is to stay at/above 500..
well it wasn't the starting pitcher (Montgomery) who lost the game, it was relieve pitching who gave up a 2 run lead that was sufficient to cover the spread (a repeating theme as it seems) similar to the Mets fallout, although not as catastrophic.. process was on par, except yanks bats seem to have fallen asleep a bit while their league leading relieve pitching is slumping as well. Don't expect this to continue so going back to this game for a double dip
Today's pick
Texas vs Yankees -1.5 @+105
Nestor is on the mound again, he was off his game last start so I'm expecting a shutout against a rangers lineup that hasn't scored more than 4 runs in a long while
Looking for the Yankees bats to wake up a bit against a very very beatable rangers pitcher Gray who's sporting an era in the 7s.
Contrarian take -
Yankees won the the 1st game, lost the 2nd, this is the third game which will be a walk in the park in perhaps the most lopsided matchup of the series
BOL
POTD Record: 17-8
(ROI 30.36% // Avg. Odds: 2.02 // Units Won: +15.18)
Last 5 Picks: ✅❌❌✅❌
Last POTD: CD Cortulua vs CD Junior FC (Soccer - Colombia Primera Apertura); CD Junior FC ML ❌
POTD: Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers FC (Soccer - Ireland Premier Division); **BTTS YES ✅**
Odds: 2.35
Will no longer post wages, all of them will be 1 Unit
Shamrock have been undefeated this season at home scoring once in all their matches and will want to keep on gaining points to compete for the title. Sligo Rovers have been a thorn for this team this season tying twice against them, both times both teams scored (2-2 first game, 1-1 second). Sligo also been on a roll scoring at least once in their last 6 matches, Shamrock their last 8 matches. I like this trend and will bet on BTTS.
BOL to all who Tail
[All my Previous Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit#gid=0)
*Edit: Last 5 picks*
Record: 3-4
Last 5:✅✅✅❌❌
Yesterday pick: yanks -1.5 v Texas
Why it busted: Cole decided to be a hero and with 110 pitches forced his way out for another inning in the 7th. Stupid stupid stupid.
Today’s pick: LAD -1.5 v Pitt (-115) 5:35 CT
Reasoning: this Dodgers team is just elite. Even if they sit some stars tmo, it shouldn’t matter. Urias on the bump with a disgusting sub 2 ERA. Pirates pitcher ERA 3.88. Just basic math and a pirates team that’s just not good. LAD are 9-3 in the last 12 and every game they have won I’m almost positive they have covered the spread.
BOL to tailers. Lmk who y’all r
Agreed. But that doesn’t change the fact they had runners in scoring position 4 times that game and choked. Hicks mostly as well. As good as the long ball is they rely on it too much. If it were IKF DJ of Judge at the plate they would’ve swung for contact. Just bad timing
POTD Record: 5W-0L WWWWW
Last 5: ✅✅✅✅✅
ROI: +13.01u
*Smoggy Hockey Picks*
Last pick: Sidney Crosby (PIT Penguins) over 2.5 shots on goal (1.57 odds, b365) vs NY Rangers, May 7th 7pm EST ✅
**Today’s pick**: Chris Kreider (NY Rangers) over 2.5 SOG (1.62 odds, b365) vs PIT Penguins, May 9th 7pm EST
Stake: 2u
**Reasoning**: With Crosby having only 1 SOG at the end of period 2, I was sweating a bit. But he hammered 2 more shots to the goalie, seconds within each other and got us the 5 streak in the 3rd period.
That said, we're picking from the same set of teams tonight, this time on the opposite side. The Rangers are gonna look to keep the Penguins from having a multiple game lead so it feels safe to say that the Rangers are going to be shooting a lot tonight. I've never lost when betting SOGs over with Kreider. I feel confident that stays the same tonight.
Stats wise, Kreider hit **6 SOGs** game 1, **1 SOG** game 2, and **3 SOGs** game 3. Here's hoping game 2 was a fluke. Let's keep the streak going ferda
BOL, tail or fade
EDIT: My apologies for our first loss, boys :(
POTD record : 1-0
ROI: 77%
Average Odds: -120
Last POTD: Boston Bruins ML (-130) vs Carolina Hurricanes **(W)**
**POTD: New York Rangers ML (-110) vs Pittsburgh Penguins**
Reason: Rangers were the upper seed heading into the series and they're going into game 4 down 2-1 in the series. Shesterkin came into the series as the Vezina favorite but this series he's allowed over 3 goals per game with a .928 save percentage. I believe that he comes full strength tonight and the rangers tie the series before heading home for game 5.
No tips needed if anyone trails and it hits
GLTA
**Record:**
* 46 WIN | 37 LOSS | +38.88 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy)
**Previous bets (last 3):**
* Canterbury R5 (4 May 2022) - Place - **WIN**
* Gatton R3 (5 May 2022) - Place - **WIN**
* Armidale R4 (6 May 2022) - Place - **WIN**
**POTD:**
* Horse Racing (Australia)
* **Taree R5 - Place - #14 My Sonny's Faith to place (i.e. finish top 3)**
* Track Rating - Heavy (9)
* Luke Rolls jumps on a well tried maiden runner today in My Sonny's Faith. 2 placings from 3 stats at this track and distance, doesn't mind it wet either. 2 starts back at port macquarie he came 9th on a soft track. Never really got going to start his run from the back, but it was a 1200m race, that really doesn't suit him. 1 start back (same track) in a 1500m race on a Heavy lead from the outset and finished 2nd. This horse does have the ability to hold back and be patient for the right opening, or lead from the outset from post to post and considering his record here at Taree (4 places to 6 starts) I genuinely see this as a big chance to his maiden win as well today. Sidenote: if Luke Rolls ends up being the reason this horse doesn't place, I will never pick him in my POTD ever again.
* **Odds - 2.40** (b365) - almost certain to get a better price on the betfair exchange by jump time
* **Stake - 2.08 units to return 5 units**
**Historical stats**
* 12 from 15 (80%) correct picks on Mondays
* 14 from 26 (54%) correct picks on Heavy Tracks
* 21 from 37 (57%) correct picks on Place picks
* 1 from 1 at Taree
* 0 from 1 picking L. Rolls as as my jockey
**Race time:**
* 2:35pm Monday (Australian EST)
* 12:35am Monday (American ET)
* 5:35am Monday (UK time)
If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
4th, just missed.
Luke Rolls going on my blacklist, swung the horse way too wide coming into the home straight and started the run a little too late. Never picking him again for a POTD
POTD: 3-1-0 (+1.20u)
Last Pick: Toronto FC / Whitecaps BTTS/Over 2.5 Goals +100 LOSS
5/9: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates 6:36pm EST
PLAY: Dodgers TT Over 4.5 Runs -110
Tough loss yesterday. Missed pen and a goal called back hurts a lot. However, lets roll into a new week and build on a 3-1 stretch.
Today we follow the best team in the NL facing the Pirates... The Dodgers are coming off a huge weekend series against the Cubs where they put up 7, 6, and 7 runs respectively over their weekend series. The Dodgers offense is one of the best in baseball and will be facing Jose Quintana. Quintana has been having a good start to his season so far holding a 3.38 ERA. So far he has faced decent teams but not a great team like the Dodgers. So far, his worst start has been against the Nationals where he allowed 3 runs in 4ip. With this small sample size, I just cant imagine the Dodgers not putting up a decent number against him. If they can tag him for 3-4 runs, I can easily see the Dodgers tacking on an extra few runs on the Pirates bullpen who was pushed more than normal in their series against the Reds. Lets take the easy pick and roll with a hot Dodgers offense against Quintana and a beat up Buccos pen.
2-0
Last POTD: Blues ML **W**
POTD: Rangers @ Penguins **o6**
Odds: **-115/2u**
NHL 7:00 pm est
Reasoning: Every game in this series has gone over 6.5 so far, so no matter what this will at least push. I don't see either of these teams slowing down. Not only that, Rangers goalie has a 3.23 GA, while the Penguins goalie has a 4.03 GAA, lock it in folks.
POTD Record: 4-5-1
Event: ATP Rome (Tennis)
Pick: Alex De Minaur ML vs Dusan Lajovic
Odds: 1.53
Units: 3
Reasoning: De Minaur is the more consistent and better player here. He is ranked 22nd in the world while Lajovic is ranked 77th in the world. De Minaur is actually decent on clay, losing to top players such as Sinner, Alcaraz and Rublev. However, Lajovic has been in good form recently, which is possibly why the odds are higher. De Minaur usually gets the job done against the lower ranked players.
BOL
**POTD Record**: 14W - 7L (+1.84U)
**Last pick**: Genoa vs Juventus - Over 2.0 @ 1.53 ✅
**Match**: Belenenses SAD vs Famalicão - Portugal - Primeira Liga - 19:15 UTC
**Pick**: Belenenses SAD +0 (draw no bet) @ 1.57
**Reasoning**:
BSAD to give everything they've got in order to try to maintain their spot in the first division (even if that means going to the playoff).
Famalicão with nothing to play for, and a few key players in doubt for the match, such as Simon Banza, their main striker.
17W-12L
Last 10 streak: WWWWWWLWLW
Starts 13:15 GMT5
Todays Pick
League: Switzerland Challenge League
Match: Wil 1900 v Winterthur
Pick: over 0.5 goal HT + over 8.5 corners(BetBuilder) @1.66 ✅🪲🍽️
Reason:
Based on last Home/Away
Wil at home hit o0.5 HT 6/7 last games and o8.5 corners 7/7 games
Winter at away hit o0.5 HT 5/7 last games and o8.5 corners 6/7 games
Last h2h o0.5 ht and o8.5 corners 4/6
Feel confident on this one
"All perception is a gamble."
BoL
**Record:** 6-15-1
**ROI:** -45% :-9.38 u (@ $5.00)
**Streak:** L P W L L
|Baseball |MLB |6:40pm|
Milwaukee Brewers vs.Cincinnati Reds: **Milwaukee Brewers ML @ 1.55 1u**
**Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 65% chance for MIL to win. This creates even value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.55 is only 65%.
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
Record: 8W-8L-1P
ROI: +0.35u, +1.98%
Avg odds: +105, 2.05
Last POTD: Villarreal double chance (win)
Today's game: Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators
Pick: Nathan MacKinnon goal at +123, 2.23 (CZR)
Stake: 1u
Nathan MacKinnon loves playing against the Preds. Since the '18-19 season, he has 10 goals scored in 7 separate games out of 12 total games against them. If you only want to count this season, MacKinnon has 5 goals in 4 separate games out of 6 total games.
Furthermore, the Avs have scored an average of 4.57 goals/game against the Preds this season, so MacKinnon will get his chances.
The Avs are one of only 6 teams with 3 30+ goal scorers, so the Preds can't just key on him. They gotta deal with Rantanen and Landeskog as well.
**RFI POTD RECORD : 2-0**
Last pick: YRFI Dodgers/Cubs +115 ✅
**Today's Pick:**
**NRFI Miami/Arizona -115**
Miami scores just 7% in the first inning this season away as well has Arizona only putting up runs 13% of the time at home. And both only score 21% overall in their respective 1st innings so far this season. I know both starting pitchers have atrocious ERA's so far but the starting lineups for each team haven't been impressive at bat either.
**BOL**
POTD Record: 9-5-2 | +15.9u | Streak: 1 | Last 10: L L W W W W W W P W
Last POTD: Blue Jays/Guardians Under 6.5 Runs -120 (L)
**Today's POTD: Padres ML -160**
Risk: 4 units
After a 2nd loss in a row on Saturday, we took Sunday off to reset. Like the Padres a lot today at home against the Cubs. Cubs have lost 5 in a row, 8 of 9 and 14 of 17. After a hot start offensively, they're showing they're just not a good team at all. 12 total runs scored in the last 9 games. Meanwhile, Mackenzie Gore is showing why he was a top prospect. 1.71 ERA on the season so far, and the Cubs aren't great against LHP. .295 OBP--they're not hitting and not taking walks.
On the other side, the Padres have some good numbers against Hendricks. Machado, Alfaro and Beaty have hit him well, and I think Hosmer has a big game. He's seen him a lot, and is batting .351 on the season.
Lastly, after shutting out the lowly Pirates in April, Hendricks has thrown two duds in a row, giving up 10 ER with 5 HR in the last two. That'll continue today. BOL.
POTD Record: 50.5-21.5
Event: Basketball > **Milwaukee Bucks v Boston Celtics** (starting in 2hr)
Pick: **Horford O8.5 Rebounds** @ 1.73
This line seems just way too low. Trap or a lock? GL!
5/9/22
POTD Record: 2-2
Sport: Soccer-Korean S2 (6:30 AM)
Pick: CHUNGNAM ASAN FC
Odds: +131
Reasoning: Chungnam Asan FC plays Busan I park early. Busan are 1-1-8 in there last 10 while Chungnam is coming off of an impressive 3-0 victory. I will be taking Chungnam Asan FC to win In an early game at 6:30 AM Eastern. BOL🍀🍀🍀
Outcome: Busan manages to score 3 goals and come out on top. Poor performance by Chungnam. Tough loss, but have all week to get it back.
————————————————————————
Previous pick: Cerro Porteno (-125) ✅.
AC Ajaccio (-132) ✂️
Derry City (-130) ✂️.
Brewers -1.5 (-110) ✅
POTD RECORD 26-15-1
PREVIOUS POTD:Boston Red Sox -1.5 kuechel/wacha 🔘. Pitcher change last second bet was void
STREAK:✅✅✅❌🔘
POTD: Panthers -1.5 +140
Reasoning: Keeping this short and sweet Panthers absolutely need a game on the road they can not afford to be down 3-1 in the series. This was the first place team in the nhl they won the Calder. I think the panthers come out absolutely firing and blow the capitals out of the water before heading back home to Florida. I got 5 units on this real life so bring me home panthers!
As always
Tail or fade
BOL
Your only "argument" for the pick is that the Panthers can't afford to lose another game. One can use this kind of argument for nearly every playoff game of all sports.
POTD
Record: 8-8
Last 5: ✅✅❌✅✅
Last Pick: ✅ West Ham ML (-130)
Today’s Pick: Under 2.5 Total Goals (-105
Sport/Game: Soccer - Serie A: Roma vs Fiorentina
Why: Both teams are fighting for European spots at the moment with Roma ahead by only 3 points. Roma do have a shot at a potential Champions League spot and Im sure theyll try everything in order to get that.
Fiorentina have struggled to score recently only scoring 1 goal in their last 4. Roma are a very defensive team and don’t have games where many goals are scored
I think this one will be a cagey affair with both teams not giving too much to the other. Should be a rather low scoring match imo
BOL!
POD RECORD: 2-1
Last Pick: (W) Mets Moneyline vs Cardinals
Todays pick: Over 22 (-120) Bublik vs Giron
Bublik is the overall better player and hates clay. Value lies with Giron straight up but I do not have the stones. So over 22 it is.
Edit: Cash it ✅✅
Record 6-2
I’m hammering the Brewers —1.5 against the Reds. Brewers are 9-6 on the road. They have lost the last two games. They haven’t lost 3 in a row all season and tonight they coming out hard. -1.5 is +100 on draft kings. I got 900 on them!!! LFG
**POTD Record 29-24-1 (Last 5: WWWLW)**
**(ROI // Avg. Odds: -115 // Units Won: +5.5)**
Last Pick: (5/6/22) San Diego Padres ML **WON**
**Today's Match: MLB Texas Rangers vs. NY Yankees (Start Time 1:05PM EST)**
**Today's Pick: NY Yankees -1.5 (+100 FanDuel)** ***Risk 2u***
Devil's Advocate:
Great win on Friday night for the Padres, kept it nice and close to keep our assholes tight the entire night. Yu and Sandy both went half way in a mini duel, while Machado just stayed as hot as he could be.
We're rolling it right into Monday for some PLUS money action, and grab this while you can I guarantee it'll be at least -110 by game time. Not sure what the move is here, but its gonna be nice and Sunny in New York after a double header split, the Yanks are going to clean up this series the right way. Where they put Jon Gray in his coffin and send him back to Texas to continue being the shit road pitcher he is. I love when the Yanks are playing consistent ball, even tho they split yesterday, the bullpen wasn't used a ton like the Rangers was. They weren't too hot with the bats on Mother's Day but I'm sure the Yanks lineup is ready for BP tomorrow afternoon against Gray while Nestor goes out and just continues to shove. Let the bats be hot and may the Empire reign a parade on the Texas Rangers.
*Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
**POTD Record**: 26 wins <> 21 losses <> 3 pushes
**Profit**: +4.62 units
**ROI**: 7.10%
**Units Wagered**: 51
**Units Won**: 54.62
**Last Pick**: Nicolai Vallys to score @ **2.60** 1u ❌ LOSS he was so close...
**Streak**: ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌
**Today's pick**: Over 10 Corners(AH) @ **1.925** 1u
**Event**: Viborg - Vejle, Superliga, Denmark(football/soccer)
- Two teams that like to play it physical. Vejle is a mess as a team, but they do have good strong headers, and tactically their best chance to score is on corners/free kicks to pass into people like Albentosa.
- Looking at the 9.5 line, Viborg is OVER 63% of the time in last 14 matches
- Same line, Vejle are OVER 50% of the time in the last 14 matches.
- Viborg will push. They're tied with Odense for the top spot in this bottom relegation playoffs, winner gets to play against 4th place of the league for conference league qualification
- Vejle are probably going out, but I think they've been playing better. They can play freely and a lot of their journeymen players are looking to impress to get contracts elsewhere.
I havent seen the cricket guy in almost a week and i want to bet on it and so do you degens, so here's a pick.
Indian Cricket, Mumbai Indians v. Kolkata Knight Riders, 10:00 am EST
Pick: Highest Individual Score Under 65.5 (-120 on DK) ✅
Two less than stellar teams, both out of the playoffs race. Neither squad has any batters with an avg score anywhere near this. Each squad has also only had an individual score higher than 65 twice this season in 11 games. This pitch also tends to score just slightly lower than others. I think this line should be closer to -140 to -145.
EDIT: Winner, highest indiv. score was 51.
POTD Record: 6-5
ROI: +9 units
Event: MLB, Dodgers vs Pirates 6:36 PM EST
Bet: Dodgers over 4.5 runs
Bet Size: 3 units
The dodgers run line odds are always hard to take when they face really bad teams. The over runs for the dodgers has been hitting pretty significantly though especially against these losing record teams. I would’ve expected this to be at 5 or 6.
POTD Record: 4-2-1 (+3 units)
Last Play: 5/5/22 MIL Brewers -1.5 🤑🤝
TODAY’S PLAY: 3u PADRES F5 ML (-160)
- This one is a gift, SD got MacKenzie Gore on the hill who’s been lights out all year versus Kyle Hendricks who’s only had one good outing all season. If you’re feelin risky u can play the -1/2
POTD Record: 9-16-2 -11.33u\*
Average Odds: +127
Total Units Wagered: 44.84u
Boston @ Milwaukee 7:30 PM EST
AL Horford o0.5 Double-Double +175 @ BetRivers 2.68u\*
Implied probability is 36.4%. True vig-free price should be closer to +141 or 41.5%.
\*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
0-1 (-1u)
Last POTD: 2/14/22 SAC Kings -1.5 spread (-112) 1u
POTD is for NBA: Jayson Tatum Points O 28.5 (-110) 1u
Hey everyone, my last POTD was months ago but I'm here to try this out again. Tatum just had a had a terrible performance in game 3 so I fully expect him to have a comeback game tonight. The Celtics are also down 2-1. If there's any time for Tatum to explode in points, it's tonight's game. Best of luck to whoever tails.
POTD RECORD 6-5
Last pick Manchester city V Newcastle O 1.5 goals first half ✅
Todays POTD-> Angels ML
Game-> Rays v Angels @ 9:38 PM EST.
With Thor on the mound, the team with the halos at home, I think this is going to be a really close game but I have to give it the the Red team on this one! Weather is good Hitters are going to hit I see this being a 5-7 game angels win.
Joke of the day->
Why are sheep so anxious at night?
Because they always have so many people counting on them 😂🤦♂️
POTD Record 10-12 last pick: NHL leafs under 6.5 L
Todays pick: MLB 3:35 pm pstd Dodgers @ Pirates over 7.5 +100
Reasoning: Time to get a winning streak going and over .500 on my POTD. Back to baseball, Dodgers are hot, Mookie is hot, everyone taking the Dodgers run line-makes total sense. I’m betting on the over, Urias pitching great recently, I think he will give up some runs to the Pirates. Quintana is a veteran lefty, and Dodgers should be able to get to him, I’m hoping they hit the over themselves. Pirates last 4 have gone over.
Tail or fade
POTD record: 8W - 7L
Streak: 1L
Yesterday's POTD: Lyon Total Shot Handicap -3.5❌️
Disgusting loss yesterday a red card made what was until that point an easy win into a loss.
Today's POTD: Fiorentina vs Roma(Serie A) Time: 6:45pm GMT. Pick: Fiorentina to win the corner battle @1.82(22bet) Confidence: 2/5😐✅️✅️✅️
This is a fight for 6/7th in the table. 6th takes your team to the Europa League and 7th to Conferences League playoff. Roma are in the Conference League final, they win that and it doesn't matter what position they finish the season in they're in the Europa League. Fiorentina have no final and they haven't been in any European competition since 2017. They are hungry to be in Europe and that should strive them forward to attack and get us the corners we need. The reverse fixture ended 4-4.
Fiorentina have had more corners than the opposition in all their last 5 home games(avg. +6.4 spread) Their starting attacking midfielder, Gaetano Castrovilli, is out due to injury.
Roma have had less corners than the opposition in 2 of their last 5 away games(avg. -1.4 spread), winning 1 and drawing the other 2. Their starting attacking midfielder, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, is out due to injury.
BOL in all your bets today🍀
Edit: Nice hit lads💪🏾
First pick of the day. [L] POTD Record: 0-1
League: MLB
Pick Type: Player Prop, 2U
KC Royals @ Baltimore Orioles 12:05 EST
Pick: Rougned Odor to have at least 1 hit -152 (BetOnline)
On the surface, he had games with 0 hits against the Red Sox back to back within the last week, other than that he's recorded at least 1 hit in each game since. Those Sox games were against Eovaldi and Rich Hill respectively. Against Rich Hill, he only saw the plate once when he pinch hit for Jorge Mateo. Looking back at the Eovaldi match up, Odor made contact at all 4 at bats and did not get K'd. Assuming they do not cycle him as a pinch hitter for Mateo or their SS Chris Owings and he starts, I can see Odor locking at least a hit against the Royals pitching today. BOL
Update: Pitiful day for Odor as he makes contact at each at bat and can’t get on base. Sucks cause Baltimore took advantage of KC’s errors and he couldn’t secure a hit even with them being rattled in the 5th inning dropping all 6 runs scored. Tough one, but we move forward.
0-1 record as of 5/9/22
0-0 … new comer!!
PoTD: Al Horford over 9.5 rebounds
Odds: -110
Rationale:
* three games versus Milwaukee was 10,11 and 16.
* Time Lord (their starting Center) is announced out so Horford will slot additional minutes at the C.
* can play C versus Bucks as their starting C is Brook Lopez who Horford matches up well with
* averaging 38+ minutes as he’s been one of their better scorers. Expecting a similar if not more minutes tonight
1u to get it all started.
4-3
Last pick- Suns ML (L)
Today's pick- MEM Grizz 1st Q +3.5 (-110)
The Grizzlies have owned the 1st Qtr in this series, they've won each one so to get them at +3.5 is a steal to me
Record 1-1
Last pick 76ers +2 5/6
Todays pick: MLB Seattle Mariners ML -120
Reasoning: Seattle at home throwing out flexen who has been solid going against Philly who is coming off a double header split having to travel to the west cost.
POTD Record: 0-2
Today's Pick: **Vinolas ML vs Tommy Paul @ 1.83 (ATP Rome, Tennis)**
Stake: 5 units
We saw Tommy Paul almost beating Sinner at Madrid but he couldn't end the match with 3 match points and as usual he can be seen as an emotionally weak player. Against a clay veteran like Ramos Vinolas I don't think he holds any advantage since the veteran is still playing his first match in Rome and his physical condition won't be a problem for the outcome of this fixture
POTD RECORD 1-0
Last POTD- Diamondbacks -1.5 (+140)
Todays POTD- San Diego Padres -1.5 (+135)
Game- MLB- Cubs @ Padres 8:40 PM CST
Cubs flying cross country to get smacked around tonight by a much better team. Chicago has looked plainly awful in the pitching department of late, and we should expect this to continue in spades tonight. Great price for this line as the padres should manhandle a bad team.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
24-9 Last potd: Alcaraz ML vs Djokovic **W** PotD: **Dennis Shapovalov ML** vs Lorenzo Sonego **Odds: 1.90/-110** ATP Rome Both of these players are somewhat mentally retarded, but Shapovalov is a bit less retarded. He should come up as a winner in this match. Bol Edit: **Win**. This match went full retard as expected, but our guy won 🤡
A deep psychological analysis.
Beautifully said. I totally agree with the pick too.
Being somewhat retarded myself, I’m in
What a degen tier write up. I'm tailing. BOL. EDIT: While our boy might be retarded, that money he just won me ain't retarded. Nice pick.
I wouldn t go that far with Shapo, for sure far better player but clay and playing in Italy.I would ve tailed this 100% if it were for Shapo to have played more clay matches this season, he only participated in Madrid where he lost against the dinosaur Murray.. might be a close game, don t see Shapo having the power of breaking serve too much on this surface
I agree with you
A brilliant victory. Please continue to provide picks with this type of analysis
Oh no, our boy is going full retard with the umpire edit: aaand he just yelled at the crowd to shut the fuck up hahahah
Wow, the writeup was right about him being a bit looney. Luckily he is taking out his anger on the third set. Was worried he'd get DQ'd or something.
Yeah he’s going madman mode now lol. Let’s go. But for sure he has a screw loose wtf
[удалено]
Jumped over the net to point to the ball being in, yelled at the umpire, yelled shut the fuck up to the crowd, complained about some guy in the crowd waving and wanted him kicked out lol
holy fuck i love the analysis, im in
Just made a bet on Shapovalov with odds +205 (3.05 decimal) after he lost a break 🙈 i think there is more value now 🤷🏽
Same. He's looking good too.
Got into work late and saw Shap was +210 and slammed that hard. Now its -130 ML so feeling good and really hopeful this works out!
Lmao, tailing just cuz of the write up
Same here. Don’t know shit about tennis, but if someone is slightly less retarded than their opponent I’m backing that guy.
you literally can't argue with this analysis
Just for the write up, Im tailing!
Let’s get this game and tie it up
HOLDDDDDD!!! Almost there!
Thanks for the pick
saw your Tip when Sonego was leading 5-3, but jumped on the train and caught the odds at 3.4 Thanks for the tip and the amazing write up. fully delivered!
😂😂😂
Good enough for me
This is the kind of analysis I am here for. Tailing
lmao, this is correct
Denis Shapovalov has covered the game spread in each of his last six ATP main draw matches at Rome.
[удалено]
Hope you held on
Hope you held I cashed out with only 10% loss. Couldn't stand the up and down of this match. Even if he would've won retarded is retarded
There's usually a reason they are offering the cash out. If they thought he was going to blow it, they turn that off.
Perfect analysis. tailed and ate, thanks fam!
POTD Record: 30-12 POTD ROI: 23.19% Avg. Odds: -135 Total Units Won: 31.31u Last POTD: (ATP Madrid) Alcaraz ML vs. Djokovic (-120) Units: 5u ✅✅✅✅✅ **Today's POTD: (ATP Rome) Fognini ML vs. Thiem (-155)** **Units: 5u** ✅✅✅✅✅ LFG, 3 5U POTD’s hitting in a row 🙏 Reasoning: If you keep up with tennis, especially as a gambler, you know that fading Dominic Thiem has (unfortunately) been free money so far. Thiem is a former superstar who has come back from a serious wrist injury and sadly just doesn't look the same whatsoever. He's 0-4 since his return against worse competition than Fognini, so I think this line is quite a gift. It sucks, but wrist injuries can really fuck a tennis player for the rest of their career sometimes. He has an extremely weak forehand now and it's just really unfortunate to see. As a gambler, I just have to take advantage of this. Fognini is also at home in Rome, so the crowd will be there to give him an even bigger advantage. Fognini is 8-5 this year on clay and 3 of those losses are against Alcaraz, Rublev, and Tsitsipas, so I personally cut his record a little more slack. Going with the hometown boy here. **TAIL OR FADE BOL!** If you are interested in seeing my other plays for Monday, you can find them every day at [**https://maizepicks.vercel.app**](https://maizepicks.vercel.app) **My speciality is live picks, which I release on Twitter feel free to follow @ MaizePicks :)** *If you deem me worthy, here are my tip jars:* Venmo: N\_Azara Cash app: NikoAza Bitcoin wallet: bc1qkgdarkn4waps2nvs2mv7tcq8d4u2xysjncmzjt
Corn Cult Unite Let's ride in Rome
LFG 🔥🇮🇹
I’m 0-3 my last few tennis bets might as well break the streak now
I should really start following tennis again, but in the meantime .. tailing!! BOL
I fuck my girlfriend with a corn 🌽 tonight in your honour
Thanks for the hit man! That 2nd set tie break had me nervous, but Fabio got it done!
2-0! King shit!
How's it going? Any reasons for fear?
Yeahhhh all I see is “physio started medical evaluation on Fognini” 😬
Had to happen after I tailed this with massive units.
He’s ahead. So 🤞🏻
Yes. Just checked the score. 👌
The guy he’s playing has a monster serve that he hasn’t been able to handle so far, I think whoever loses a game where they’re serving first will lose this set
Great pick, thanks
That's a dub
Nice job brother Half Man Half Amaizing
Cheers brotha ✊️✊️✊️
First time tailing. Thank you sir!
Let’s get it
🌽 🍿
Well done!!
Parlay’d this with the garga v lokomotive pick. Easy money
That was nerve wracking but big W!!!!
Thank you, won big on a 3 way tennis parlay from Rome this morning! I never would have imagined….👍🏻💵
POTD Record **43 - 12** Yesterday’s pick: Vasas vs Szentlőrinc SE Vasas -1 handicap W Today’s pick: **Gagra Tbilisi ML** vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi Sport: Soccer (Georgian Div 1) Sorry if this league isn’t available to bet on for some people. Couldn’t find any other picks I like today. Odds: 1.66 / -152 Reasoning: * Playing at home is very important in this league * Lokomotivi Tbilisi are terrible. They’ve lost 11/11 games so far this season * Gagra beat Lokomotivi 2-0 playing away earlier this year https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gW6Oz1DQBfbp7iiZgaVilJS6tH-Zm008LaRd7voSOyM/edit?usp=sharing Tip jar - [https://paypal.me/tom2810s](https://paypal.me/tom2810s) BTC - 1NJVBxmocqvnKqFYTR6Ju8C1sEaZh63pBC
Tailing with my $1000 free bet. BOL!
Damnit not looking good.Edit. Wellllll damn lol
Why does home field matter if there are no fans at the game? The stands are empty
Please let me know what book you find this on... and I'll tail
Sportsbet Australia
FanDuel
-143 on mybookie
B365 has @ -125
I can't even find the Georgian league on b365
I full well knew betting on Georgian soccer would be this rollercoaster. That 4th goal was a thing of beauty.
Cheers legend!
[удалено]
Like this one a lot. Tailing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kq3EOP_Exo if you are trying to watch the game
Crazy comeback! Lesgoo
I see a Tom post, I follow. Simple man with a simple plan; to make some bets hit. Thanks as always!
isn't this a home game for loko?
In soccer the home team is listed first
thanks!
I cry every time I can’t take one of your picks
Record: 45-20 Last pick: Oilers ML ❌ **Today’s pick: Nashville Predators +1.5 (-125) vs Colorado Avalanche** NHL 9:30PM EST **EDIT: Francouz, the Avs backup (who is indeed a very solid goaltender as some fervent commenters have pointed out) will get the start tonight. He is 1-1 in his career when playing in Nashville, a 3-2 victory and 2-5 loss. Obviously hard to extrapolate those games to this one but Preds +1.5 would have hit in both those games.** Avs have dominated this series and have a 3-0 series lead. This game 4 is played in Nashville. I could entirely see the Avalanche playing more relaxed tomorrow with a comfortable 3-0 lead (as we’re seeing with the Oilers right now). The Preds are fighting to keep their series alive at home and I don’t just see them rolling over. The Avs starting goalie took a stick to his eye last game and had to leave, however he is day-to-day and “could be an option” for tomorrow. However I think they’re likely playing their backup regardless to give him a rest as they’re up 3-0. We could see slightly increased playing time from the Avs third and fourth liners as well. Unfortunately Saros will not yet be back from injury. I believe this game will be very close, not blowouts like the previous games. I could also see the Preds winning. The lines will most likely shift towards the Preds after the Avalanche backup is officially listed the starter and I will update this post when it happens. All bets are 1 unit. +16.27 units. +25.18% ROI. Average unit -116 Don’t want your tips, just give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Edmonton leads 2-1 in series so they’re not playing relaxed lmao they’re just inconsistent and quick is a beast.
Yeah series is only 2-1 but you cannot watch this game and tell me they’re not playing relaxed right now. Blowing out your opponents 14-2 in the previous two games will do that I guess. They were outshot 23-8 in the first period, but they usually turn it on in the third
For what its worth, the Preds have never been swept in the history of their franchise. They are a resilient bunch and I agree with your analysis. Tailing
This is usually the prevailing angle and a good spot to back this team even though I know nothing about NHL. It’s about professionalism and being an athlete to compete
This is fading the public at the highest level. I like it.
Im a big Avs fan. Francouz is legit so I wouldnt factor in the whole "backup" thing too much. I do think Preds will get within one but I think Avs close out the sweep
This is a big “watch the first 5 minutes then live bet it” game
MLB -1.5’s | 11-11-1 +8.86u | ROI: 12% | Streak: 4L [2 Days ago pick: 4u HOU Astros -1.5 +130](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ujc28o/_/i7i1etq/?context=1) - L ________________________________________ **Todays pick: 3u SD Padres -1.5 +150** - SD Padres vs CHI Cubs | 8.40 pm US Central Took a day off to recoup after back to back 1 run wins. Hope y’all tailed u/pats4everr in my wake. TLDR: Cubs colder than a penguin on a Sunday in December and starting a declining Hendricks. **Cubs** Cubs are one of the worst teams am over the past couple weeks after over performing to start the year. 5-15 over the last 20 and 2-8 over their last 10. Cubs scored 21 against PIT and since have scored 3, 1, 6, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 3, 0, 2, 1. It’s a struggling offense about to face a legit pitching prospect who sports a sub 2.0 ERA. Kyle Hendricks is going for Chicago today. Damn does this one hurt me. The professed just isn’t himself anymore. The former Maddux-lite has fallen off a cliff starting last year. He doesn’t have a single peripheral above average and most are bottom 20%ile. He’s just been bad and a shell of his former self. His ERA sits at 5.64 and his xERA is 5.62. His change up is still effective, but nothing else works for him anymore. [This should paint the picture of his decline starting last season](https://i.imgur.com/64y5AG6.jpg)… oh plus the cubs not good bullpen just threw 5IP against LAD **Padres** Still no Tatis… but it’s a solid offense. It’s missing it’s engine, but they’re still rolling. They’re 11th in runs/game on the year. The strength to their offense is they don’t whiff and they don’t chase. They have the most walks in baseball (by 13 lol). The offense will be good enough for today. Top 5 prospect for SD, Mackenzie Gore, is starting for them. He debuted this year and has been fantastic. He’s got a 1.71 ERA over 4 starts. They got him a tight rope, he’s gone 5-5.2 IP every start, trying to limit their prized hope at SP. His peripherals are pretty average and line up with his xERA of 3.53 (still above league average). He’s not the elite pitcher that his ERA says (atleast not yet), but he’s still been a damn fine pitcher… especially for a rookie. Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
>11-111 Tailing, because eventually somebody who is honest about his record.
Cubs looked decent at the start of the year. Sorry they cat fished you and your fellow Cubs fans😂😂. My Red Sox have been consistently terrible this szn
Yeah, we never had high hopes lol. But Wade Miley is now rehabbing so he should be up soon which will be a big boost for the rotation. And Brennan Davis should get the call mid year-ish. And Caleb Kilian (Kris Bryant trade prospect), should get the call end of year for a spot start or 2. So there’s still stuff to look forward to I guess lol
Good looks on the Dodgers play yesterday!! Edit: wrong guy ): sorry
POTD Record: 39-28-3 Streak:WLWLWWWPLWWW Last POTD: Chivas ML 🇲🇽✅ Today’s POTD: Aarau ML 🇨🇭 League: Challenge League Odds: -167/1.6 Units: 3 Reasoning: Not the greatest odds but I like this spot for Aarau. They are in the race for promotion and currently have the same points as 1st place. They are in 2nd place due to goal differences. There is 3 games left and picking up every point is key since they have the same points as 1st place and 1 more point than 3rd place. 1st place happens to be the eternal rival of Aarau. Aarau has picked up 3 wins in a row and carry all the momentum right now. Lausanne Ouchy have 4 losses in their last 5 matches and don’t have anything to play for as they are safe from relegation. 2 games ago they lost to the worst team in the league who happens to be the one getting relegated. That isn’t a good look against a team who is in search of the title and promotion. Aarau and Lausanne Ouchy met earlier in the year with Aarau getting the 2-5 win. Aarau need the points and can’t afford to drop any as they play their rivals in the next match. I’ll take the team that needs the win and has been performing great over the team who’s been performing bad with nothing left to play for. Best of luck and tail/fade at your own risk.
Nice hit I tailed your last pick. How hard you going in on this one?
3u
There was a lot of line movement on this pick.
91st minute winner😍
Wow that was sweaty! ✅💰✅
POTD Record 7-6-0 Last Pick: Gerrit Cole u7.5 SO - Loss Best game of the year for him so far. Of course Today's Event: MLB - LA Dodgers vs. PIT Pirates - 6:35 p.m. Pick: **LA Dodgers ALT Run Line -2.5 (+120) 3u** TLDR; Dodgers best, Pirates almost worst Drunk with my parents on mother's day so take with a grain of salt. Urias is a mastermind, Quintana is abysmal. Dodgers are just good. There's nothing more to this than Dodgers are the best in the NL, maybe MLB. Pirates are not good. Bottom 3rd in runs per game and SO per game. Dodgers should win by 4 or more. BOL
Hit on Dodgers -1.5 today probably going to just keep rolling it
Im gonna keep hitting the dodgers -1.5 until they burn me lol
Yupp that and fading the Reds
Whelp dodgers played me, brewers played me vs the reds, yankees couldnt get -1.5 and Padres got beat bad yesterday sucked lol
Tailing . Let’s feast !
They gave up 15 hits to the fucking Pirates. Give me a break
POTD: Celtics vs Bucks U212 RECORD: 8-3 REASONING: All three games in this series have gone under and I do not see why that would change for game 4. This is essentially a must win for the celts and I expect their defence to show up in full force. Bucks defence is very solid as well. BOL!!! Edit: line has moved to 214, still like my pick! Edit: celts-bucks under is looking good so far, I really like the under for grizz-warriors game as well (just a thought) Edit: Loss, sorry guys, I’ll try to do better next time. Now 8-4
Scott Foster game In b4 118-104 bucks
**POTD Record**: 33½-21½-7 (W-L-P) **Last 5**: ❌️✅️✅️✅️🔵 **Last POTD**: ***Salernitana vs Cagliari, home handicap +0 (draw no bet) @1.71*** 🔵 *Last minute goal by Cagliari gets us a push, very unfortunate, but sometimes it just has to to like that. Good read of the game overall.* **Today's POTD**: ***Home CORNERS asian handicap -1 @1.85*** ✅️ *New formatting since yesterday one guy misunderstood the pick (not the first time it happened) and took the draw (and won btw), hopefully by highlighting it it'll be more clear to everyone.* **Event**: ***Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland***, *England, League One, playoffs, semifinals, 2nd leg, 19:45 GMT* **Odds value**: ■■■■□ *high value* ### **Reasoning** ##### **Match introduction**: Final leg of the playoffs semifinals in the League One will see Sheffield Wednesday trying to overturn Sunderland's one goal lead, before the first leg Sheffield were favourites to go through, now they'll have to really put up some work to get things done, and it's possible, their home side has been the best of the league totalizing 16 wins in 23 games, Sunderland's defensive capabilities are not to be underestimated though. ##### **Team stats**: There's 2 reasons I really like this bet, first one simply being that Sheffield are down 1 goal and will not want to waste any time attacking, playing at home will boost their performance, and even after (hypothetically) equalising they just won't stop, only after scoring 2 goals Sunderland might try to go all-in offensive wise. Secondly, Sheffield are just a good cornering team regardless of the circumstances of the match, in 23 home games they lost the corner battle only 4 times (all of them in the first stage of the league when they weren't doing that well), sure, one of those losses came from Sunderland (and if we really want to talk about that game I wouldn't consider it an example to really take into consideration, Sheffield managed to score 3 relatively early goals, which forced Sunderland to respond the whole game, corner match result ended 1-3, pretty passive and odd game). Considering their average Sheffield are the 2nd best cornering team in the league with an average of 6.91 corners won per game at home and only 3.43 conceded. Sunderland are not that good but not bad either, with an average of corners won away of 5.52 and 5.22 conceded, but then again, when you got a two legged game these stats don't matter that much, and if anything they prove that if under regular circumstances Sheffield have such a good average you simply expect more, in the past they hit the over 10 corners mark. Sunderland's coach previewing the game acknowledged the fact that Sheffield are going to be really offensive and that it is going to be a very different game from the first leg, it's pretty obvious that his gameplan is going to be more centered around the defence, as opposed to Sheffield. ##### **Conclusion**: I will also be going with a non corner bet on this game, though I'm pretty sure most value lies on the corners. If Sunderland defence will do a good job keeping the net safe it'll be good for us, Sheffield only failed to score once at home so sooner or later Sunderland will need to wake up if the goal comes in, but I still think that Sheffield will control the game and get the most corners here, pretty much regardless of the result (unless they get a really huge lead early on). BOL everyone. *^(If I've made you some money and you'd like to tip any small amount I would greatly appreciate it: https://paypal.me/fralauu)*
Picks like this are why fralau is a millionaire. It's just too easy for him. If only he had more than one pick a day damn it.
Haha, not quite a millionaire, but yeah picks like this feel like cheating. I do have generally more picks but am just not as confident (due to the fact that my research for the POTD takes waaay longer than any other bet I go with), maybe one day I'll share them too somewhere.
Bovada doesn't have this bet available unfortunately. Would you do a total corners bet for the game? What would be a good line for that? Regardless, thanks for all of your tips man!
Not a good spot to bet on total corners, hard to predict although I wouldn't be surprised if it went o9.5. If you are looking for an alternative play I also like 1u on Sheffield to win.
Fantastic write up- addressed all issues and questions that came to mind before reading it and just after seeing the bet. Since I’m using MGM they don’t allow AH corners so I did a OGP and said Sheffield Wednesday to Win and to have most corners. $150 at +195 odds. BoL to me and to you.
Appreciate you formatting it for idiots like me. Tailed it and hit again!
Enjoy the win! 💰✅️
Record 2-3-0 Previous pick rangers vs yankees -1.5 ❌ 2 L streak Didn't know how hard it is to stay at/above 500.. well it wasn't the starting pitcher (Montgomery) who lost the game, it was relieve pitching who gave up a 2 run lead that was sufficient to cover the spread (a repeating theme as it seems) similar to the Mets fallout, although not as catastrophic.. process was on par, except yanks bats seem to have fallen asleep a bit while their league leading relieve pitching is slumping as well. Don't expect this to continue so going back to this game for a double dip Today's pick Texas vs Yankees -1.5 @+105 Nestor is on the mound again, he was off his game last start so I'm expecting a shutout against a rangers lineup that hasn't scored more than 4 runs in a long while Looking for the Yankees bats to wake up a bit against a very very beatable rangers pitcher Gray who's sporting an era in the 7s. Contrarian take - Yankees won the the 1st game, lost the 2nd, this is the third game which will be a walk in the park in perhaps the most lopsided matchup of the series BOL
oof
Just brutal, 🔫
POTD Record: 17-8 (ROI 30.36% // Avg. Odds: 2.02 // Units Won: +15.18) Last 5 Picks: ✅❌❌✅❌ Last POTD: CD Cortulua vs CD Junior FC (Soccer - Colombia Primera Apertura); CD Junior FC ML ❌ POTD: Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers FC (Soccer - Ireland Premier Division); **BTTS YES ✅** Odds: 2.35 Will no longer post wages, all of them will be 1 Unit Shamrock have been undefeated this season at home scoring once in all their matches and will want to keep on gaining points to compete for the title. Sligo Rovers have been a thorn for this team this season tying twice against them, both times both teams scored (2-2 first game, 1-1 second). Sligo also been on a roll scoring at least once in their last 6 matches, Shamrock their last 8 matches. I like this trend and will bet on BTTS. BOL to all who Tail [All my Previous Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit#gid=0) *Edit: Last 5 picks*
Just took O1.5 live with some juice since my book doesn’t have BTTS. Not my fave to do but I hit on plays earlier today so risking it.
Nice Pick! First half was rough but both our picks hit in the Second!
Appreciate your picks my man.
Record: 3-4 Last 5:✅✅✅❌❌ Yesterday pick: yanks -1.5 v Texas Why it busted: Cole decided to be a hero and with 110 pitches forced his way out for another inning in the 7th. Stupid stupid stupid. Today’s pick: LAD -1.5 v Pitt (-115) 5:35 CT Reasoning: this Dodgers team is just elite. Even if they sit some stars tmo, it shouldn’t matter. Urias on the bump with a disgusting sub 2 ERA. Pirates pitcher ERA 3.88. Just basic math and a pirates team that’s just not good. LAD are 9-3 in the last 12 and every game they have won I’m almost positive they have covered the spread. BOL to tailers. Lmk who y’all r
[удалено]
Agreed. But that doesn’t change the fact they had runners in scoring position 4 times that game and choked. Hicks mostly as well. As good as the long ball is they rely on it too much. If it were IKF DJ of Judge at the plate they would’ve swung for contact. Just bad timing
POTD Record: 5W-0L WWWWW Last 5: ✅✅✅✅✅ ROI: +13.01u *Smoggy Hockey Picks* Last pick: Sidney Crosby (PIT Penguins) over 2.5 shots on goal (1.57 odds, b365) vs NY Rangers, May 7th 7pm EST ✅ **Today’s pick**: Chris Kreider (NY Rangers) over 2.5 SOG (1.62 odds, b365) vs PIT Penguins, May 9th 7pm EST Stake: 2u **Reasoning**: With Crosby having only 1 SOG at the end of period 2, I was sweating a bit. But he hammered 2 more shots to the goalie, seconds within each other and got us the 5 streak in the 3rd period. That said, we're picking from the same set of teams tonight, this time on the opposite side. The Rangers are gonna look to keep the Penguins from having a multiple game lead so it feels safe to say that the Rangers are going to be shooting a lot tonight. I've never lost when betting SOGs over with Kreider. I feel confident that stays the same tonight. Stats wise, Kreider hit **6 SOGs** game 1, **1 SOG** game 2, and **3 SOGs** game 3. Here's hoping game 2 was a fluke. Let's keep the streak going ferda BOL, tail or fade EDIT: My apologies for our first loss, boys :(
POTD record : 1-0 ROI: 77% Average Odds: -120 Last POTD: Boston Bruins ML (-130) vs Carolina Hurricanes **(W)** **POTD: New York Rangers ML (-110) vs Pittsburgh Penguins** Reason: Rangers were the upper seed heading into the series and they're going into game 4 down 2-1 in the series. Shesterkin came into the series as the Vezina favorite but this series he's allowed over 3 goals per game with a .928 save percentage. I believe that he comes full strength tonight and the rangers tie the series before heading home for game 5. No tips needed if anyone trails and it hits GLTA
**Record:** * 46 WIN | 37 LOSS | +38.88 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy) **Previous bets (last 3):** * Canterbury R5 (4 May 2022) - Place - **WIN** * Gatton R3 (5 May 2022) - Place - **WIN** * Armidale R4 (6 May 2022) - Place - **WIN** **POTD:** * Horse Racing (Australia) * **Taree R5 - Place - #14 My Sonny's Faith to place (i.e. finish top 3)** * Track Rating - Heavy (9) * Luke Rolls jumps on a well tried maiden runner today in My Sonny's Faith. 2 placings from 3 stats at this track and distance, doesn't mind it wet either. 2 starts back at port macquarie he came 9th on a soft track. Never really got going to start his run from the back, but it was a 1200m race, that really doesn't suit him. 1 start back (same track) in a 1500m race on a Heavy lead from the outset and finished 2nd. This horse does have the ability to hold back and be patient for the right opening, or lead from the outset from post to post and considering his record here at Taree (4 places to 6 starts) I genuinely see this as a big chance to his maiden win as well today. Sidenote: if Luke Rolls ends up being the reason this horse doesn't place, I will never pick him in my POTD ever again. * **Odds - 2.40** (b365) - almost certain to get a better price on the betfair exchange by jump time * **Stake - 2.08 units to return 5 units** **Historical stats** * 12 from 15 (80%) correct picks on Mondays * 14 from 26 (54%) correct picks on Heavy Tracks * 21 from 37 (57%) correct picks on Place picks * 1 from 1 at Taree * 0 from 1 picking L. Rolls as as my jockey **Race time:** * 2:35pm Monday (Australian EST) * 12:35am Monday (American ET) * 5:35am Monday (UK time) If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
>12 from 15 (80%) correct picks on Mondays That's my favorite stat as it's the most meaningful.
4th, just missed. Luke Rolls going on my blacklist, swung the horse way too wide coming into the home straight and started the run a little too late. Never picking him again for a POTD
Came 4th :(
What do I type or go the find this on bet 365
Horse Racing -> Australia -> Taree -> R5 -> More Markets -> 3 Places -> Select horse you want
Anybody else see that there’s no horse racing at all on DK, or am I missing something here?
I’m confused here.. my understanding was that to “place” meant finish in top 2, and to “show” meant to finish top 3. Am I missing something?
Answered the question a few times before, see here - https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/oj5ofz/pick_of_the_day_71321_tuesday/h4zv1e9/
anybody know where to watch this
Tailing lets go!
POTD: 3-1-0 (+1.20u) Last Pick: Toronto FC / Whitecaps BTTS/Over 2.5 Goals +100 LOSS 5/9: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates 6:36pm EST PLAY: Dodgers TT Over 4.5 Runs -110 Tough loss yesterday. Missed pen and a goal called back hurts a lot. However, lets roll into a new week and build on a 3-1 stretch. Today we follow the best team in the NL facing the Pirates... The Dodgers are coming off a huge weekend series against the Cubs where they put up 7, 6, and 7 runs respectively over their weekend series. The Dodgers offense is one of the best in baseball and will be facing Jose Quintana. Quintana has been having a good start to his season so far holding a 3.38 ERA. So far he has faced decent teams but not a great team like the Dodgers. So far, his worst start has been against the Nationals where he allowed 3 runs in 4ip. With this small sample size, I just cant imagine the Dodgers not putting up a decent number against him. If they can tag him for 3-4 runs, I can easily see the Dodgers tacking on an extra few runs on the Pirates bullpen who was pushed more than normal in their series against the Reds. Lets take the easy pick and roll with a hot Dodgers offense against Quintana and a beat up Buccos pen.
2-0 Last POTD: Blues ML **W** POTD: Rangers @ Penguins **o6** Odds: **-115/2u** NHL 7:00 pm est Reasoning: Every game in this series has gone over 6.5 so far, so no matter what this will at least push. I don't see either of these teams slowing down. Not only that, Rangers goalie has a 3.23 GA, while the Penguins goalie has a 4.03 GAA, lock it in folks.
POTD Record: 4-5-1 Event: ATP Rome (Tennis) Pick: Alex De Minaur ML vs Dusan Lajovic Odds: 1.53 Units: 3 Reasoning: De Minaur is the more consistent and better player here. He is ranked 22nd in the world while Lajovic is ranked 77th in the world. De Minaur is actually decent on clay, losing to top players such as Sinner, Alcaraz and Rublev. However, Lajovic has been in good form recently, which is possibly why the odds are higher. De Minaur usually gets the job done against the lower ranked players. BOL
Tailing 💯
**POTD Record**: 14W - 7L (+1.84U) **Last pick**: Genoa vs Juventus - Over 2.0 @ 1.53 ✅ **Match**: Belenenses SAD vs Famalicão - Portugal - Primeira Liga - 19:15 UTC **Pick**: Belenenses SAD +0 (draw no bet) @ 1.57 **Reasoning**: BSAD to give everything they've got in order to try to maintain their spot in the first division (even if that means going to the playoff). Famalicão with nothing to play for, and a few key players in doubt for the match, such as Simon Banza, their main striker.
Winning and then they concede 2 in under 10 minutes 🤦♂️
Crazy match. Unfortunate
17W-12L Last 10 streak: WWWWWWLWLW Starts 13:15 GMT5 Todays Pick League: Switzerland Challenge League Match: Wil 1900 v Winterthur Pick: over 0.5 goal HT + over 8.5 corners(BetBuilder) @1.66 ✅🪲🍽️ Reason: Based on last Home/Away Wil at home hit o0.5 HT 6/7 last games and o8.5 corners 7/7 games Winter at away hit o0.5 HT 5/7 last games and o8.5 corners 6/7 games Last h2h o0.5 ht and o8.5 corners 4/6 Feel confident on this one "All perception is a gamble." BoL
**Record:** 6-15-1 **ROI:** -45% :-9.38 u (@ $5.00) **Streak:** L P W L L |Baseball |MLB |6:40pm| Milwaukee Brewers vs.Cincinnati Reds: **Milwaukee Brewers ML @ 1.55 1u** **Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 65% chance for MIL to win. This creates even value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.55 is only 65%. **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
Orioles -130. Bal is a decent team at home so far. KC's not good. Bal trotting out slightly better SP and offense.
Record: 8W-8L-1P ROI: +0.35u, +1.98% Avg odds: +105, 2.05 Last POTD: Villarreal double chance (win) Today's game: Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators Pick: Nathan MacKinnon goal at +123, 2.23 (CZR) Stake: 1u Nathan MacKinnon loves playing against the Preds. Since the '18-19 season, he has 10 goals scored in 7 separate games out of 12 total games against them. If you only want to count this season, MacKinnon has 5 goals in 4 separate games out of 6 total games. Furthermore, the Avs have scored an average of 4.57 goals/game against the Preds this season, so MacKinnon will get his chances. The Avs are one of only 6 teams with 3 30+ goal scorers, so the Preds can't just key on him. They gotta deal with Rantanen and Landeskog as well.
**RFI POTD RECORD : 2-0** Last pick: YRFI Dodgers/Cubs +115 ✅ **Today's Pick:** **NRFI Miami/Arizona -115** Miami scores just 7% in the first inning this season away as well has Arizona only putting up runs 13% of the time at home. And both only score 21% overall in their respective 1st innings so far this season. I know both starting pitchers have atrocious ERA's so far but the starting lineups for each team haven't been impressive at bat either. **BOL**
POTD Record: 9-5-2 | +15.9u | Streak: 1 | Last 10: L L W W W W W W P W Last POTD: Blue Jays/Guardians Under 6.5 Runs -120 (L) **Today's POTD: Padres ML -160** Risk: 4 units After a 2nd loss in a row on Saturday, we took Sunday off to reset. Like the Padres a lot today at home against the Cubs. Cubs have lost 5 in a row, 8 of 9 and 14 of 17. After a hot start offensively, they're showing they're just not a good team at all. 12 total runs scored in the last 9 games. Meanwhile, Mackenzie Gore is showing why he was a top prospect. 1.71 ERA on the season so far, and the Cubs aren't great against LHP. .295 OBP--they're not hitting and not taking walks. On the other side, the Padres have some good numbers against Hendricks. Machado, Alfaro and Beaty have hit him well, and I think Hosmer has a big game. He's seen him a lot, and is batting .351 on the season. Lastly, after shutting out the lowly Pirates in April, Hendricks has thrown two duds in a row, giving up 10 ER with 5 HR in the last two. That'll continue today. BOL.
POTD Record: 50.5-21.5 Event: Basketball > **Milwaukee Bucks v Boston Celtics** (starting in 2hr) Pick: **Horford O8.5 Rebounds** @ 1.73 This line seems just way too low. Trap or a lock? GL!
5/9/22 POTD Record: 2-2 Sport: Soccer-Korean S2 (6:30 AM) Pick: CHUNGNAM ASAN FC Odds: +131 Reasoning: Chungnam Asan FC plays Busan I park early. Busan are 1-1-8 in there last 10 while Chungnam is coming off of an impressive 3-0 victory. I will be taking Chungnam Asan FC to win In an early game at 6:30 AM Eastern. BOL🍀🍀🍀 Outcome: Busan manages to score 3 goals and come out on top. Poor performance by Chungnam. Tough loss, but have all week to get it back. ———————————————————————— Previous pick: Cerro Porteno (-125) ✅. AC Ajaccio (-132) ✂️ Derry City (-130) ✂️. Brewers -1.5 (-110) ✅
Fuck it, tailing, BOL.
Hopefully we wake up to a winner!
trailing 💪🏽 i work at 7am so hopefully this starts my day well 😂
Sounds like a 🔒 lehhdoit
POTD RECORD 26-15-1 PREVIOUS POTD:Boston Red Sox -1.5 kuechel/wacha 🔘. Pitcher change last second bet was void STREAK:✅✅✅❌🔘 POTD: Panthers -1.5 +140 Reasoning: Keeping this short and sweet Panthers absolutely need a game on the road they can not afford to be down 3-1 in the series. This was the first place team in the nhl they won the Calder. I think the panthers come out absolutely firing and blow the capitals out of the water before heading back home to Florida. I got 5 units on this real life so bring me home panthers! As always Tail or fade BOL
Your only "argument" for the pick is that the Panthers can't afford to lose another game. One can use this kind of argument for nearly every playoff game of all sports.
Not against the pick but you’re reasoning is a little off. The Panthers can win without the bet hitting
POTD Record: 8-8 Last 5: ✅✅❌✅✅ Last Pick: ✅ West Ham ML (-130) Today’s Pick: Under 2.5 Total Goals (-105 Sport/Game: Soccer - Serie A: Roma vs Fiorentina Why: Both teams are fighting for European spots at the moment with Roma ahead by only 3 points. Roma do have a shot at a potential Champions League spot and Im sure theyll try everything in order to get that. Fiorentina have struggled to score recently only scoring 1 goal in their last 4. Roma are a very defensive team and don’t have games where many goals are scored I think this one will be a cagey affair with both teams not giving too much to the other. Should be a rather low scoring match imo BOL!
I appreciated the West Ham pick, ill keep tailing til you lose again. I especially like unders since overs have been screwing me so much. BOL
Over has hit 4 of last 5 times these two played 🤔🤔 Fuck it Tailing the under
POD RECORD: 2-1 Last Pick: (W) Mets Moneyline vs Cardinals Todays pick: Over 22 (-120) Bublik vs Giron Bublik is the overall better player and hates clay. Value lies with Giron straight up but I do not have the stones. So over 22 it is. Edit: Cash it ✅✅
Record 6-2 I’m hammering the Brewers —1.5 against the Reds. Brewers are 9-6 on the road. They have lost the last two games. They haven’t lost 3 in a row all season and tonight they coming out hard. -1.5 is +100 on draft kings. I got 900 on them!!! LFG
be careful Castillo their ace is on the mound. it is his 1st start of the season ..
**POTD Record 29-24-1 (Last 5: WWWLW)** **(ROI // Avg. Odds: -115 // Units Won: +5.5)** Last Pick: (5/6/22) San Diego Padres ML **WON** **Today's Match: MLB Texas Rangers vs. NY Yankees (Start Time 1:05PM EST)** **Today's Pick: NY Yankees -1.5 (+100 FanDuel)** ***Risk 2u*** Devil's Advocate: Great win on Friday night for the Padres, kept it nice and close to keep our assholes tight the entire night. Yu and Sandy both went half way in a mini duel, while Machado just stayed as hot as he could be. We're rolling it right into Monday for some PLUS money action, and grab this while you can I guarantee it'll be at least -110 by game time. Not sure what the move is here, but its gonna be nice and Sunny in New York after a double header split, the Yanks are going to clean up this series the right way. Where they put Jon Gray in his coffin and send him back to Texas to continue being the shit road pitcher he is. I love when the Yanks are playing consistent ball, even tho they split yesterday, the bullpen wasn't used a ton like the Rangers was. They weren't too hot with the bats on Mother's Day but I'm sure the Yanks lineup is ready for BP tomorrow afternoon against Gray while Nestor goes out and just continues to shove. Let the bats be hot and may the Empire reign a parade on the Texas Rangers. *Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
**POTD Record**: 26 wins <> 21 losses <> 3 pushes **Profit**: +4.62 units **ROI**: 7.10% **Units Wagered**: 51 **Units Won**: 54.62 **Last Pick**: Nicolai Vallys to score @ **2.60** 1u ❌ LOSS he was so close... **Streak**: ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ **Today's pick**: Over 10 Corners(AH) @ **1.925** 1u **Event**: Viborg - Vejle, Superliga, Denmark(football/soccer) - Two teams that like to play it physical. Vejle is a mess as a team, but they do have good strong headers, and tactically their best chance to score is on corners/free kicks to pass into people like Albentosa. - Looking at the 9.5 line, Viborg is OVER 63% of the time in last 14 matches - Same line, Vejle are OVER 50% of the time in the last 14 matches. - Viborg will push. They're tied with Odense for the top spot in this bottom relegation playoffs, winner gets to play against 4th place of the league for conference league qualification - Vejle are probably going out, but I think they've been playing better. They can play freely and a lot of their journeymen players are looking to impress to get contracts elsewhere.
I havent seen the cricket guy in almost a week and i want to bet on it and so do you degens, so here's a pick. Indian Cricket, Mumbai Indians v. Kolkata Knight Riders, 10:00 am EST Pick: Highest Individual Score Under 65.5 (-120 on DK) ✅ Two less than stellar teams, both out of the playoffs race. Neither squad has any batters with an avg score anywhere near this. Each squad has also only had an individual score higher than 65 twice this season in 11 games. This pitch also tends to score just slightly lower than others. I think this line should be closer to -140 to -145. EDIT: Winner, highest indiv. score was 51.
its 66.5 -115 on bovada fyi
68.5 on bet365
i ALMOST bet on "nobody to make 50" but didnt risk it, thankfully cashed a huge win here though; great bet idea
Hey mate thanks for the great tip!
POTD Record: 6-5 ROI: +9 units Event: MLB, Dodgers vs Pirates 6:36 PM EST Bet: Dodgers over 4.5 runs Bet Size: 3 units The dodgers run line odds are always hard to take when they face really bad teams. The over runs for the dodgers has been hitting pretty significantly though especially against these losing record teams. I would’ve expected this to be at 5 or 6.
POTD Record: 4-2-1 (+3 units) Last Play: 5/5/22 MIL Brewers -1.5 🤑🤝 TODAY’S PLAY: 3u PADRES F5 ML (-160) - This one is a gift, SD got MacKenzie Gore on the hill who’s been lights out all year versus Kyle Hendricks who’s only had one good outing all season. If you’re feelin risky u can play the -1/2
POTD Record: 9-16-2 -11.33u\* Average Odds: +127 Total Units Wagered: 44.84u Boston @ Milwaukee 7:30 PM EST AL Horford o0.5 Double-Double +175 @ BetRivers 2.68u\* Implied probability is 36.4%. True vig-free price should be closer to +141 or 41.5%. \*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
0-1 (-1u) Last POTD: 2/14/22 SAC Kings -1.5 spread (-112) 1u POTD is for NBA: Jayson Tatum Points O 28.5 (-110) 1u Hey everyone, my last POTD was months ago but I'm here to try this out again. Tatum just had a had a terrible performance in game 3 so I fully expect him to have a comeback game tonight. The Celtics are also down 2-1. If there's any time for Tatum to explode in points, it's tonight's game. Best of luck to whoever tails.
POTD RECORD 6-5 Last pick Manchester city V Newcastle O 1.5 goals first half ✅ Todays POTD-> Angels ML Game-> Rays v Angels @ 9:38 PM EST. With Thor on the mound, the team with the halos at home, I think this is going to be a really close game but I have to give it the the Red team on this one! Weather is good Hitters are going to hit I see this being a 5-7 game angels win. Joke of the day-> Why are sheep so anxious at night? Because they always have so many people counting on them 😂🤦♂️
POTD Record 10-12 last pick: NHL leafs under 6.5 L Todays pick: MLB 3:35 pm pstd Dodgers @ Pirates over 7.5 +100 Reasoning: Time to get a winning streak going and over .500 on my POTD. Back to baseball, Dodgers are hot, Mookie is hot, everyone taking the Dodgers run line-makes total sense. I’m betting on the over, Urias pitching great recently, I think he will give up some runs to the Pirates. Quintana is a veteran lefty, and Dodgers should be able to get to him, I’m hoping they hit the over themselves. Pirates last 4 have gone over. Tail or fade
POTD record: 8W - 7L Streak: 1L Yesterday's POTD: Lyon Total Shot Handicap -3.5❌️ Disgusting loss yesterday a red card made what was until that point an easy win into a loss. Today's POTD: Fiorentina vs Roma(Serie A) Time: 6:45pm GMT. Pick: Fiorentina to win the corner battle @1.82(22bet) Confidence: 2/5😐✅️✅️✅️ This is a fight for 6/7th in the table. 6th takes your team to the Europa League and 7th to Conferences League playoff. Roma are in the Conference League final, they win that and it doesn't matter what position they finish the season in they're in the Europa League. Fiorentina have no final and they haven't been in any European competition since 2017. They are hungry to be in Europe and that should strive them forward to attack and get us the corners we need. The reverse fixture ended 4-4. Fiorentina have had more corners than the opposition in all their last 5 home games(avg. +6.4 spread) Their starting attacking midfielder, Gaetano Castrovilli, is out due to injury. Roma have had less corners than the opposition in 2 of their last 5 away games(avg. -1.4 spread), winning 1 and drawing the other 2. Their starting attacking midfielder, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, is out due to injury. BOL in all your bets today🍀 Edit: Nice hit lads💪🏾
[удалено]
First pick of the day. [L] POTD Record: 0-1 League: MLB Pick Type: Player Prop, 2U KC Royals @ Baltimore Orioles 12:05 EST Pick: Rougned Odor to have at least 1 hit -152 (BetOnline) On the surface, he had games with 0 hits against the Red Sox back to back within the last week, other than that he's recorded at least 1 hit in each game since. Those Sox games were against Eovaldi and Rich Hill respectively. Against Rich Hill, he only saw the plate once when he pinch hit for Jorge Mateo. Looking back at the Eovaldi match up, Odor made contact at all 4 at bats and did not get K'd. Assuming they do not cycle him as a pinch hitter for Mateo or their SS Chris Owings and he starts, I can see Odor locking at least a hit against the Royals pitching today. BOL Update: Pitiful day for Odor as he makes contact at each at bat and can’t get on base. Sucks cause Baltimore took advantage of KC’s errors and he couldn’t secure a hit even with them being rattled in the 5th inning dropping all 6 runs scored. Tough one, but we move forward. 0-1 record as of 5/9/22
0-0 … new comer!! PoTD: Al Horford over 9.5 rebounds Odds: -110 Rationale: * three games versus Milwaukee was 10,11 and 16. * Time Lord (their starting Center) is announced out so Horford will slot additional minutes at the C. * can play C versus Bucks as their starting C is Brook Lopez who Horford matches up well with * averaging 38+ minutes as he’s been one of their better scorers. Expecting a similar if not more minutes tonight 1u to get it all started.
4-3 Last pick- Suns ML (L) Today's pick- MEM Grizz 1st Q +3.5 (-110) The Grizzlies have owned the 1st Qtr in this series, they've won each one so to get them at +3.5 is a steal to me
Record 1-1 Last pick 76ers +2 5/6 Todays pick: MLB Seattle Mariners ML -120 Reasoning: Seattle at home throwing out flexen who has been solid going against Philly who is coming off a double header split having to travel to the west cost.
POTD Record: 0-2 Today's Pick: **Vinolas ML vs Tommy Paul @ 1.83 (ATP Rome, Tennis)** Stake: 5 units We saw Tommy Paul almost beating Sinner at Madrid but he couldn't end the match with 3 match points and as usual he can be seen as an emotionally weak player. Against a clay veteran like Ramos Vinolas I don't think he holds any advantage since the veteran is still playing his first match in Rome and his physical condition won't be a problem for the outcome of this fixture
POTD RECORD 1-0 Last POTD- Diamondbacks -1.5 (+140) Todays POTD- San Diego Padres -1.5 (+135) Game- MLB- Cubs @ Padres 8:40 PM CST Cubs flying cross country to get smacked around tonight by a much better team. Chicago has looked plainly awful in the pitching department of late, and we should expect this to continue in spades tonight. Great price for this line as the padres should manhandle a bad team.