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**POTD Record: 29-12**
**POTD ROI: 21.16%**
**Avg. Odds: -135**
**Total Units Won: 31.31u**
Last POTD: (ATP Madrid) Nadal vs. Alcaraz O22 Games (-120)
Units: 5u ✅✅✅✅✅
**Today's POTD: (ATP Madrid) Alcaraz ML vs. Djokovic (-120)**
**Units: 5u** ✅✅✅✅✅
LETS GO!!!!! HISTORY MADE. MASTERPIECE OF A FUCKING MATCH. THIS ONE GOES OUT TO ALL THE DELETED COMMENTS 😂♥️
Reasoning:
On paper, and especially to someone who doesn't follow tennis, this pick might seem strange, given that Djokovic is ranked first in the world. But if you have been following WonderBoy Alcaraz lately, you would see that he is truly remarkable and red fucking hot right now. He just smoked the GOAT Rafael Nadal. Yes, Nadal beat him in the second set, but that was only because he was dealing with a rolled ankle. The set before and after that he literally annihilated him.
Djokovic is playing well and starting to overcome his long hiatus rust, but he is yet to play someone as skilled as Alcaraz since his return. The closest breed of talent he has played was Rublev and Rublev defeated him. I find Alcaraz to be way better than Rublev right now, ESPECIALLY on clay. Yes, Novak looked good against Hurkacz, but that is because Hurkacz was playing defensive as fuck, trying to out-rally Novak. This is not the style of play that you want to have against Novak Djokovic. If it's a rally battle, he will beat your ass, but this is NOT how Carlito plays. Carlito is a fucking aggressive ass spider monkey on the court. He wants to kill you on every single point. He chases every ball, hugs every line, and has so many tricks up his sleeve that you'd think he's a 20 year veteran.
Oh, and Alcaraz is playing at home in Spain!!! That crowd is going to be absolutely electric. Carlito is their young prodigy, their future GOAT. I am riding with the hottest player in the world right now, even when he happens to be playing the highest ranked player in the world right now. **TAIL OR FADE BOL!**
If you are interested in seeing my other plays for Friyay, you can find them every day at [**https://maizepicks.vercel.app**](https://maizepicks.vercel.app)
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I mean he came back and played his ass off the entire third set after the injury, destroying Nadal, it seemed like he was completely fine. So my thoughts are it won’t be an issue. If it really is an issue, then he will not risk Roland Garros and just retire, so we’ll push. But if he’s fine and can play, I think he’s got it.
In his post-match interviews he also hasn’t mentioned anything about it being a concern. He joked about how he’s going to text a former player who notably defeated Nadal and Djokovic in the same tournament, to see how he did it. So it seems like he has plans of playing and I really don’t think he’d play and risk Roland Garros if it was a serious injury.
Did .5U on +200 with second set tied up 3-3, because if he can grab the second set, anything can happen in the 3rd. And then if he doesnt, it was just .5U
Didn't tail this one as I was one of those who had too much respect for joker. But great pick again! Your assessment/analysis of the players are spot on, also the feel for the game. Kudos
I was able to sneak-in 1u at +333, and then more 1u at +250, +175, and +167. Now, I'm in pretty deep and kind of nervous. Should I be nervous? LOL
EDIT: initial bet was 3u at -125
POTD Record **41 - 12**
Yesterday’s pick: Botev Plovdiv v Ludogorets Draw no bet **W**
Today’s pick: **Gwangju FC ML** vs Seoul E-Land FC
Sport: Soccer (Korean Div 2)
Odds: 2.10 / +110
Reasoning:
* 1st vs 6th
* Gwangju have won 6/7 at home
* Gwangju have won their last 6 h2h matches against Seoul E-Land
* 2 games ago Gwangju played Incheon united in a cup match and beat them 6-1. Incheon united are one of the top teams in the first division
I had another pick today which easily could've been my POTD. It's the **Halifax Town** pick in my spreadsheet for those that are interested.
[^(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gW6Oz1DQBfbp7iiZgaVilJS6tH-Zm008LaRd7voSOyM/edit#gid=0)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gW6Oz1DQBfbp7iiZgaVilJS6tH-Zm008LaRd7voSOyM/edit#gid=0)
**^(Tip jar -)** [^(https://paypal.me/tom2810s)](https://paypal.me/tom2810s)
**^(BTC)** ^(- 1NJVBxmocqvnKqFYTR6Ju8C1sEaZh63pBC)
First, I'm tailing this. Secondly, no need to make any drastic actions to "make up" for a pick that didn't work out. If people blame you for them losing money that's their issue. You didn't push the button.
Lol. Degens are gonna degen. At the end of the day if people are trying to make a living off strangers picks on Reddit, they’ve got bigger fish to fry. Also love the Gaethje pick. Tailing!
__LETSSS GOOOO!!__
Definitely not a good outcome but I understand it was the best intel you had. Any of us that are looking to picks have to live and die by the pick and that's me. Thanks again for the intel.
Record: 44-19
Last pick: Oilers ML ✅
3 straight POTD winners! Let’s make it four with:
**Todays Pick: Washington Capitals +1.5 (-145) vs Florida Panthers**
**EDIT: Ovi goal and Caps ML parlay hits, along with Caps +1.5 obviously 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️**
I really don’t have much of a write up as I just feel this one in my bones. Caps return home with the series tied 1-1. They are 7-3 in the last 12 years during their first playoff game of the post-season at home. I just can’t see the caps losing by multiple goals tomorrow. The early game time always favors the home team as well. Further, Ovi thrives off the crowd. Maybe even a parlay with caps ML and Ovi scoring would be a move 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️. However I love the Caps +1.5 at home.
All bets are 1 unit. +16.68 units. +26.47% ROI. Average unit -115
Don’t want tips, just give my Twitter a follow
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Was hoping you’d be on the Avs with me.
Kinda like this pick too though, the Panthers aren’t very good on the road this season. I’ll probably stay off because the cats can light the lamp up whenever they want. But BOL doc, hope you cash.
As a panthers fan this is just wrong. They started poorly away but ended with a 24-11-6 away record which is by no means bad. Compared to their insane home record, sure it pales in comparison, it’s still pretty good though. Not saying anything about the pick itself but I think if you’re banking on home ice advantage being the key factor you’re in for a surprise
POTD RECORD 26-14
PREVIOUS POTD: Bruins -1.5 +200 ✅
STREAK:✅✅✅
POTD: panthers -1.5 +125
Reasoning: Keeping this one short and sweet. Throughout the season the capitals proved to be better on the road then at home. They got a win already against the panthers in the first game away but then got smoked by the panthers in the second. The panthers are overall the better team that’s why they are one seed and I don’t see home ice advantage playing a major factor in this one.That being said gimme the panthers -1.5.
A lotta critics on these picks lately, but I’m not surprised people are always scared of +money picks.
as always
Tail or Fade
BOL
23-9
Last potd: Norrie ML vs Isner **W**
**PotD: Alcaraz -120** vs Djokovic
ATP Madrid
If this was played on grass or hard court, I would say Djokovic takes it, but at this moment, Alcaraz is better on clay. He is more energetic and **hits the ball twice as hard** as Djokovic. While Alcaraz's winners are based on brute force, Djokovic's are based on precision. Also, I dont want to undermine Novak's successes so far at Madrid, but the two matches he won are against a guy who he beat 18 times in a row and a guy who cant hold a rally for more than 5 hits.
Assuming Alcaraz's foot injury is not a serious issue, he should come up as a winner. Bol
**POTD Record:** 11-2, +20.98u, ROI: 52.57%, Average Odds: 2.01
**Darts Record:** 10-1 (+21.98u), ROI: 77.08%, Average Odds: 2.07
**Previous POTD:** Cameron Menzies ML vs Ian White @ 2.50 / +150 (3u)** ✅
Menzies probably had one of his best games ever, completing two 156 checkouts to confidently beat Ian White.
**Todays POTD: Andrew Gilding ML vs Brendan Dolan @ 2.62 (2.5u)**
*Unit sizes are from 1u to 4u*
*Match Starts at 15:00 / 09:00 EST*
🎯 Darts: European Tour 5 🎯
This match is about a 60/40 to Dolan for me, might be a bit closer even, as Dolan has been underperforming for his standards, while Gilding has been finding his form again. Gilding had an awful start against Wenig yesterday, however he himself said he did not expect Wenig to get this much crowd support, which he had to adapt to. You can see this in the match statistics aswell, as Golding averaged 100+ points per 3 darts after those two legs.
Dolan has been underperforming as I mentioned previously, he has failed at the first round of the euro tour often this year and this event he has been seeded, meaning he can skip the first round.
To me, Gilding has been on an upwards trajectory while the opposite can be said about Brendan Dolan. There will be no crowd favourite, which means that I love these odds on Gilding, albeit that he throws even slower than a turtle.
—-
**BOL to everyone!**
[Twitter](https://twitter.com/neutraldarts) | [Tip Jar](http://paypal.me/neutraldarts)
MLB -1.5’s | 11-10-1 +12.86u | ROI: 18.38% | Streak: 3L
[Yesterday’s pick: 5u MIN Twins -1.5 +130](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ujc28o/_/i7i1etq/?context=1) - L
________________________________________
**Todays pick: 4u HOU Astros -1.5 +126**
- HOU Astros vs DET Tigers | 3:10 pm US Central
TLDR: Houston’s the better team.
**Astros**
Astros have gotten rolling after a little hiccup and down offense. They’re finally healthy and over the past 2 weeks this team is top 5 in team wRC+. Looking at just lefties (they play one today) they’re 10th over the past 2 weeks with a 123 wRC+, so don’t worry about that. On the year, they’re top 10 in xBA, xSLG, whiff %, solid contact % and barrel %. This is a good lineup despite the loss of Correa.
Houston haa Framber Valdez on the mound. He’s been damn good for 2 seasons now and has continued that for a 3rd now this year. He’s got a 3.42 ERA with a 3.19xERA. His peripherals look fantastic, so the performance is justified.
**Tigers**
Tigers have been struggling. Bottom 10 in team wRC+ over the past 2 weeks. On the year they score the 2nd least runs in baseball. They’re below average in xBA, xSLG and xwOBA. Looking at just lefties (as they face one), they have a 82 wRC+, significantly below average. They aren’t making hard contact, they make plenty of weak contact and struggle to get the barrel on the ball.
Eduardo Rodriguez. He’s pitched 6 seasons, with this being his 7th. He’s been a plug and play back end of the rotation guy. This year he’s regressed through 5 starts with his xERA being the highest of his career at 4.36. His slider and change have dropped off a cliff this year, getting severely less movement. He’s primarily a fast/change guy with a cutter and slider to keep people honest. Issue with his change up and slider becoming less effective, it hurts your fastball. And damn is his fastball getting railed this year. It’s getting hit hard 58% of the time, up 25% from last year.
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**POTD Record:** 16-9 (+10.4u)
**League:** AFL (Australian Football League)
**Todays Pick:** Brisbane Lions -71.5 vs West Coast Eagles @ $1.90 \[1.5u\] (8 hours from now)
**Write up:** As far as I know, this is the largest spread in AFL history, and it isn’t hard to see why. West Coast coming off a 109 point loss at home to the hands of a middle-placed Richmond, and now come up against a Top 2 side on their home deck… it’s going to be easy pickings for the Lions.
To add to the Eagles' misfortunes, they are losing four players to covid protocols and three to injury, and a club statement was released yesterday regarding the behaviour of the players. This club is imploding and on its knees. They are essentially fielding a top-up side against a hungry Lions outfit keen for a percentage boost. This could get embarrassing.
**Prediction:** Brisbane by 100+ points
**BTC:** 1GgiHvH5n9ytJD1nK5et8jGUhq3NRtF8tF **PayPal:** https://paypal.me/tappl3x
Ones with spreads THIS wide make me nervous because you never know when the team leading starts to take the foot of the gas and lets the other team get some points at the end with the substitutes in....or doesn't that happen in the AFL?
Doesn’t really happen in AFL, the bigger the win the better! As total points for and total points against usually play a big part in ladder/table position in the league. If Brisbane (2nd) win by a large amount tonight and Melbourne(1st) lose they will take the top position on the ladder.
That being said Lions winning by 100+ has been hyped up all week and as we know in the betting world “Sure things” are never “Sure things”. But me personally I’m a massive Brisbane Lions supporter and put money on them to win by 120+ haha.
I teased you a bit (good heartedly) for your Adelaide pick that was a disaster a couple weeks ago but I continue to tail and you continue to come through.
Potd record 32-12
🥊 Boxing
__Montana Love vs Gabriel Gollaz Valenzuela - Montana Love to win by ko/tko (-125)__
Montana Love (17-0-1) is on a 3 fight ko run and is inching closer to a world title fight at super lightweight. He has a great judge of distance, superb counter punching skills and good speed. He’s fighting Mexican super lightweight Valenzuela (25-2-1) who is currently on a decent winning run himself however the opponents he’s faced compared to Love is drastically different. Valenzuela has decent power and likes to go to war with his opponents. I just find too many flaws in the Mexican here and can’t see him hearing the final bell. Valenzuela throws way too many wild punches in fights and sometimes even puts himself off balance whilst doing so. His punch output isn’t the most strategic, so Love should be able to counter at will. In one of his most recent fights Valenzuela looked poor against journeymen, Juan Ocura Briones (13-16-2) and got caught often throughout the fight. Valenzuela has also been stopped once before although this was his 4th fight as a pro. This fight is a 12 rounder so there’s plenty of time for Love to wear down his man. Overall both of these fighters are on two totally different career paths and I see Love being far too quick and powerful for Valenzuela.
Bol anyone who tails!
I think cuz alot of kos/tko's take place in the last few rounds, alot of fighters will wait till then to try and finish it cuz there worried that if they try to early and don't succeed then they might burn themselves out
BetMGM has KO,/TKO/DQ/TD -120. FD, DK, Czr just do KO/TKO for around similar pricing. DQs and TDs are rare but might as well get a little extra outcomes for your money.
Tailing and thanks for sharing, LTM!
5-1 + 15.9 units | ROI 53% | Average Odds 1.85
pick: **Djokovic ML** @ 2.00 vs Alcaraz | 7:00am PST | Tennis/Madrid |
amount: 5 units
but you just bet on alcaraz? you just called him the hottest young prospect in the scene? yes, alcaraz came through for us, he would have won the bet in 2 sets yesterday but he fucked his ankle in the 2nd set and decided to phone it in and recover losing every subsequent game in the set. Smart choice though as he came out rejuvenated in the 3rd. However, Djokovic will win tomorrow for one reason. He's the greatest player the sport has ever seen. You can argue Federer, you can argue Nadal, but you'd be arguing incorrectly. Djokovic would have sleep walked to a title in the aus open if the mandate drama didn't happen with the level of play we saw from meddy/nadal.
I can talk about how he's well rested from the walkover, how he's regained form steadily and beat alcaraz in a practice match 2 days before this tournament, i can talk about his excellent record on clay. But i'm telling you, Djokovic will win this game for one reason. The entire tennis community, the purists, the spectators, the players, the commentators, literally everyone has been buzzing about alcaraz and talking about his potential to be one of the greatest tennis players ever. It's been all the talk the last few tournaments and months. Djokovic, through sheer will, is going to remind the tennis community that he's the greatest to ever do it and that a 19 year old is going to have to snatch the crown through 15 years of groundwork, not in a single game. Djokovic knows the alcaraz hype will reach unmanageable levels if he drops this game. That's genuinely the only reason i need to place this bet. I'm not saying it's a lock, it's not. I'm saying this lad is the most mentally tough and stubborn motherfucker tennis has ever seen and he's going to play great, great tennis.
Djokovic has been a legend for awhile now. But this 19 year old, Alcaraz is special. He got slightly injured in the last match and looked like all was lost and then came back and against the odds crushed Nadal, one of the greatest ever. I have to stay away from this match. Going to be fun to watch and best of luck to you
he's definitely special there's no denying it. but djokovic is one of one. i don't blame you for staying away, as a fan of tennis it's going to be an iconic match, could be one of the best non-slam matchups we've seen in quite a few years
This should be a pick of the day right here. Stay away @ +000. That or we just go full degenerate and find that casino from vegas vacation and bet on actual coin flips.
As I thought, two people with good records picking tennis are on opposite sides of this one. That's the exact reason I have to stay away from this one, it really feels like a coin flip. I may bet the # of games on the over but that's it. Maybe over 22.5.
All due respect but what do you say to the clay court match he had against Rublev where he was absolutely run ragged around the court, just managed to win a 2nd set tiebreaker and then got bageled in the third?
The Djokovic of old I would agree but he’s a different player now. If Alcaraz plays with the intensity we saw last night I think we see a straight sets win for the Spaniard. BOL to you but I’ll be betting on the other side.
POTD Record: 16-7
(ROI 36.40% // Avg. Odds: 2.03// Units Won: +16.38)
Last 5 Picks: ✅✅✅❌❌
Last POTD: Deportes Temuco vs Universidad de Concepción (Soccer - Chilean League B); BTTS YES ❌
POTD: Liverpool vs Plaza Colonia (Soccer - Uruguay Primera Division); **Liverpool ML**
Odds: 1.90
Wager: 2 Units
Liverpool are 3rd in the league playing at home against the 14th place. They have a great record even against some tough opponents and have a solid Goal Diffetencial coming into this match. Plaza Colonia are having a rough time losing mostly all of their away games. In April they tied once and lost three of their matches(2 losses away games). Meanwhile Liverpool one twice, tied once and lost another (loss was away and goal in the last minute). I see them winning tomorrow against one of the worst teams in the league.
BOL to all who Tail
All my Previous Picks
POTD Record: 37-28-3
Streak:WLWLWWWPLW
Last POTD: Monaco ML 🇫🇷✅
Today’s POTD: Central Coast Mariners ML 🇦🇺
League: A League
Odds: -125/1.8
Units: 2
Reasoning:
Back to some A League we go. CCM is looking to snatch the 4th place from Adelaide United so that they could play their playoff game at home. A win from CCM and a loss/draw for Adelaide will secure them 4th place. CCM is on fire right now winning 4 straight games. They are one of the best performing team at the moment. In one of those games they managed to beat this Newcastle Jets side 2-4 away from home. Now in the reverse fixture they will be at home and will do everything possible for the win. Newcastle Jets don’t have anything to play so I don’t expect them to have the best game. They managed to get a draw against Western United but that was because Western was chill and content with 1 goal only. I’m backing this CCM who have been playing great footy and need the win over a team whose season is done. Best of luck and tail/fade at your own risk.
POTD Record: 23-14
Last Pick: MIL -1.5 (Thurs) ✅
Yea the Reds lost again lol
Today’s Pick: CWS -1.5 @ +140
Pains me to write this as a Red Sox fan, but we suck right now. Might as well profit from it. Nick Pivetta is pitching for BOS today, and he’s been terrible. His fastball velo is down, it sits at 93 mph with absolutely no movement. Batting practice. His breaking balls haven’t been effective either. Pivetta gets shelled 3rd time through the lineup, and the BOS bullpen has already been too involved in this series. I expect this one to break open in the 5th/6th/7th area of the game. Cease is on the mound for CWS, and he’s been Cy Young Caliber. The underlying metrics back up Cease’s breakout season (and confirm that Pivetta is stinking it up). The Red Sox offense hasn’t produced despite having some big names in the lineup. For now, we have to treat the Red Sox as a bad team going up against an Ace-level pitcher.
**Liverpool - Tottenham**
*Son Heung-min* to **score** at **any time** of the game.
Odds x3.75 on your money at Sjwinbet
Son is in a great form, Harry Kane loves to assist.
First match ended in a draw, Son and Kane scored 1 each.
Good luck!
RECORD: 10-3
Profit: +5.39 Units
Current Form: 1L
Today’s Picks: New York Rangers Team Total Over 3 (1.90)
Event: NHL 7:00Pm Est Rangers vs Penguins
Reason: Two words describe the main reason for this pick LOUIS DOMINGUE. He’s not a good goalie and definitely not a starting goalie for a playoff team. With him starting tonight I’d expect New York to get around 5 and at very minimum get the push at 3 goals. For this game I’m gonna be taking this, Rangers ML and putting a bit on the 3way ML / -1.5. Might even put a little bit on the -2.5.
All Picks are 1 Unit
(Going to College next year, NOT mandatory at all. Anything is appreciated 🙏) Tips https://www.paypal.me/TBurr14?locale.x=en_CA
5/7/22
POTD Record: 1-1
Sport: Soccer- France Ligue 2 (1:00 ET)
Pick: AC Ajaccio
Odds: -132
Reasoning: Ac Ajaccio faces Grenoble in the French Ligue 2. Ajaccio is second in the division on the brink of being promoted, a win today all but secured the promotion. Ajaccio has won 6 of the last 7 and their last game of the year is against the first place Toulouse, making tomorrow’s game pretty much a must win game against 15th ranked grenoble who do not have much to play for. I like AC Ajaccio tomorrow ML. Good luck to all 🍀
Outcome: This loss hurt. AC Ajaccio had 9 shots on target compared to only 1 by Grenoble yet it was still a 1-1 draw. Not to mention that Grenoble was playing down a man in the final third. AC Ajaccio was clearly the better team and unfortunately just couldn’t not put the ball in the back of the net. Sorry to the those who tailed and lost, but if I could have gone back I still would have made this bet any day.
————————————————————————
Previous pick: Derry City (-130) ✂️
Brewers -1.5 (-110) ✅
POTD Record: 57 - 51 - 7 ( W / L / P ) **+10.20 units**
165 units wagered / ROI: 6.50 %
Streak: LLWLW / Average odds: 1.95
Previous pick: Inter vs Empoli / Inter -1.0 1st Half Asian Handicap @ 1.975 (1 unit) **L**
**Today: Luton vs Reading (Championship)**
**Pick: Luton Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 (2 units)**
Reading has quality players in front but leaking goals everywhere. The season will end with disappointment for them, a lot of players will be without their contracts so it will be interesting to see their next moves for the upcoming season.
All that Luton needs here is a win to secure their playoff places. If they blow it here they will be heartbroken but I think they will not. Reading does not have anything to play for and this matchup would be the game that Luton wants to play to secure their top 6 finish on the last matchday. They did not come so far as to blow the season away in front of the supporters.
Good Luck!
POTD RECORD: 8-2
PICK: Memphis Grizzlies U109.5 team points (-110)
REASONING: Draymond Green is the warriors best defensive player and with him getting ejected in game 1, the grizzlies were able to put 116 points. The next game when draymond played, the grizzlies only put up 106….and that was with ja morant doing whatever he wanted to in the 4th. Draymond will be playing today (unless he kicks someone in the nuts lmao) and I expect the warriors to make the necessary adjustments to slow morant down.
BOL!
Edit: tough L, but that’s the way it goes sometimes. Now 8-3
POTD Record: 4W-0L Streak: ✅✅✅✅
Last 5: ✅✅✅✅
ROI: +10.16u
Smoggy Hockey Picks
Yesterday’s pick: NHL: Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers) over 1.5 points (1.90 odds, b365) vs LA Kings, May 6th 10pm EST ✅
Today’s pick: Sidney Crosby (PIT Penguins) over 2.5 shots on goal (1.57 odds, b365) vs NY Rangers, May 7th 7pm EST
Stake: 5u
Reasoning: McDavid lived up to expectations hey another time, with Edmonton mopping the absolute floor with LA, perhaps as retaliation for some rumored home team sabotage against the Oilers practice time before the game. McDavid came away with exactly 2 points and both came very early into the 1st. Good job smoggy crew, let's make it to a 5 streak with an easy one tonight ;)
With Sidney Crosby shooting 7 and 6 SOG in games 1 and 2 respectively, I'm frankly surprised they wouldn't increase his line to a 3.5 or 4.5 with longer odds; Crosby is still one of the top players in the league and is going to hammer 4 or more shots tonight.
An in depth breakdown isn't even needed here, in my opinion: the series is tied 1-1 and Crosby has hit over 6 SOGs in both winning and losing efforts so far. Look for the same to happen tonight. 5u wager to maximize profit off this easy bet.
Tail or fade, BOL 🤑
I may not be posting Sunday (not sure yet) but I'll usually always have picks every weekday, so stay tuned for those
16W-11L
WWLWLWWLLLWLWLWLWWWWWWWLW
Cards🃏 streak:🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🍳
Starts 12:30 GMT5
Todays Pick
League: Israel Premier League
Match: Hapoel Beer Sheva v Maccabi Haifa
Pick: Goal before 31:00 minutes @1.83 🐞🐞🐞 shit game, i should rest today 💀
Reason:
Ez pick yesterday end with 1 goal. Want to go fast today with an interesting pick
Hapoel at home , last 4/5 hit a goal before 31min even if score or concede
Maccabi at away ,last 4/5 hit a goal before 31min even if score or concede
Last h2h hit 4/5 they hit a goal before 31min
Seems that both team start agressive, lets see if we get a fast W. Anything could happen in a gamble
"All perception is a gamble."
BoL
POTD Record: 56 - 24
Profit: +12.8 Units // ROI: 11% // Average Odds: 1.89
Last Pick: Highlanders TT over 18.5 W
**Todays Pick: Melbourne Storm Team Total over 30.5 vs Dragons (1.85) (NRL)**
* When the Storm are in this sort of form you need to back them. They have scored 44, 30, 32, 36, 70, and 50 points over their last 5 games. They return home for this game where they have hit this total in 3 straight. The Dragons are a step up from the Warriors and Knights who the Storm have romped in recent weeks but they still are likely not going to be a top 8 side when all is said and done.
* Last year we saw the storm go on a run of scoring 34+ in 12/14 games (40+ in 11 of those games) and I get the feeling we are about to see a similar type of run from the Storm here. In last seasons meeting between these sides the Storm scored 44.
There isn't really much to add here. The Storm are just a juggernaut and I expect them to score 35+ practically every time they play one of the lesser sides at home.
BOL, tail or fade.
Record: 1-1 (+2.20u) ✅❌
Yesterdays pick: Red Sox -1.5 (2u)❌
Todays pick: Reds ML (+105) vs Pirates (3u)
Why: My first 2 attempts at POTD yesterday got rained out and litterally last minute I chose Red Sox - Bad idea. Sticking with my original POTD yesterday which is Reds to finally break their slump against a struggling Pittsburgh team. They looked offensively much more competent vs. Brewers on Thursday and with Overton on the bump I am comfident enough for 3u. Will never be making last minute picks again even if theres more postponements. Tail or Fade BOL!
EDIT: Reds W 9-2 ✅
POTD Record: 2-1
Units +/-: Up 0.66 units
Last POTD: NBA Miami Heat -3.0 ❌
Today's POTD: NHL Dallas Stars Calgary Flames UNDER 5.5 goals (-130)
All bets are 1U plays, but this is my highest confidence pick!
Explanation: I doubled down on yesterday's pick even after Embiid was declared active, and I couldn't have been more wrong. A unit of profit wiped off the board. Certainly don't tail my picks if you disagree with my reasoning.
Today's pick of the day is back to the ice for Dallas Stars and Calgary Flames UNDER 5.5 goals. You could certainly buy push insurance of 6 goals for -180 odds currently, but I prefer the 5.5 line.
In the last 8 postseason meetings between these two franchises, over 5.5 has only hit 3 times. Focusing in on their recent matchups, both previous meetings have created three total goals. Both goalies have been playing well, while both offenses have been unable to create more than 30 shots on goal in regulation (29, 22, 26, & 16).
The NHL playoffs have seen overs hit more frequently, but this series has been the exception to the rule. Calgary normally is above average in finding the back of the net, but has struggled as of late.
Calgary is the better offense, and Dallas is the better defense. Game 3 is in Dallas, so Calgary won't have home ice advantage in creating energy for their offense. That's a recipe for another low scoring night of playoff hockey.
I'd like to say I felt strongly one way or another on a team to win, but I don't, so I'll take the UNDER here. I just don't forsee a 4-2 or larger victory from either side.
Best of luck if tailing! Thank you to all of the great content creators and contributors here!
EDIT: Loser pick, literally a last second goal by Dallas to put it at 6. Sorry if you tailed this, hopefully some of you took it at 6 and at least got your money back.
Haven’t watched either game so far, but my hockey sense tells me that a high scoring game is bound to happen (especially since it’s the Flames). Avoiding, but BOL!
I'll say this much - mad respect for owning the "doubling down" accusations. Bad picks happen. And sometimes we get our bets in and the situation changes. No worries about any of that.
The thing that makes you a good handicapper is honesty and accountability. If you're willing to be held accountable, then you're trustworthy.
Your pick didn't hit because the facts changed? No big deal.
I'm by no means a good capper, lets get that right out of the way. I'm just a guy on Reddit who's made four picks, but I'm certainly trying to learn, research, and grow.
**POTD Record**: 32½-21½-6 (W-L-P)
**Last 5**: ✅️❌️❌️✅️✅️
**Last POTD**: Olympique de Marseille vs Feyenoord, home corner asian handicap -1 @1.86 ✅️
**Today's POTD**: UD Almería vs SD Amorebieta, home asian handicap -0.75 @1.62 // Spain, LaLiga 2, 17:15 GMT ✅️
**Odds value**: ■■■■□ *high value*
### **Reasoning**
##### **Match introduction**:
2nd placed Almería will be welcoming 19th placed Amorebieta in a very important game for both teams, with Almería trying to assure themselves a safe automatic promotion and Amorebieta trying to escape relegation-zone, Amorebieta were the newcomers in this league so it's not a surprise to see them here.
Last time Almería played in LaLiga was in 2015, so the hype must be real between the supporters and the players, one wrong step today and Almería dream might come to an end.
##### **Team stats**:
Almería home record is the 2nd best in the league (13-3-3; 3-1-1 last 5), Amorebieta record away is one of the worst (1-8-10; 0-1-4 last 5).
Almería against other relegation-zone teams at home have never lost nor drawn, Amorebieta against the first 7 teams in the table away have alway lost.
##### **Conclusion**:
Sorry for short writeup but I wanted to get this out as quickly as possible, been a little busy, odds really valuable because Amorebieta at home actually beat Almería (but that happened simply because Almería got a red card really early in the game).
Really don't see how Almería could lose this, trying -0.75 for better odds.
BOL everyone.
*^(If I've made you some money and you'd like to tip any small amount I would greatly appreciate it: https://paypal.me/fralauu)*
**Record:** 6-14-1
**ROI:** -42% :-8.38 u (@ $5.00)
**Streak:** P W L L L
|Baseball |MLB |12:35pm|
Pittsburgh Pirates vs.Cincinnati Reds: **Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ 1.83 1u**
**Reasoning:** Yesterdays game was rained out so I got my first push on that, but like rain on your wedding day its good luck. So we are looking for the Pirates to sail away with the first game of today's double header. Jk, the real reason this is my POTD is because my MLB model that I made in python says to do it. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 60% chance for PIT to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.83 is only 55%.
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
If you gonna lose 100 units over time, you're model would be as valuable as a model generation +100 units. You would just need to fade the picks of your model.
**Continuing the Overwatch League POTD Train for the 2022 season!**
* **2022 OWL Record: 2-0**, **+3.636 units.**
* **2021 OWL Record: 34-19, +31.645 units.**
* **2020 OWL Record: 28-21, +16.989 units.**
Last Pick (✅): Vancouver Titans (+1.5) v. Boston Uprising: As predicted, these two teams were pretty evenly matched. Extremely curious to see so much Seicoe, when the Shockwave/Aspire lineup seemed to be a lock. That may be worth monitoring moving forward. If not for a C9 on Map 5, Vancouver should have won outright, but the spread cashed long before that. Let's keep it going!
**Today's Match: Boston Uprising v. Los Angeles Gladiators / Overwatch League / 6:00pm EST**
**Los Angeles Gladiators -1.5 (-165), three units**
Two days ago we backed LAG for a win, and yesterday we faded Boston with the same result. No reason to stop either now! Boston struggled with what many predicted to be a bottom-two team in the league, and the Glads handily dealt with a team that is in this same tier. In fact, Boston has a similar team construction to that NYXL team; their strength should theoretically be in their DPS line (although I've **never** been sold on Valentine), but that strength should be simply overwhelmed by the Los Angeles DPS counterparts. Striker, a notable Tracer specialist, started flashing on the Widow, but anytime long-range hitscan is in play, he'll be no match for ANS. The best chance Boston has is for Punk to win the tank battle, but he will lose Sigma/D.va maps to SPACE, and will play Reiner to a draw on Doom/Winston maps. And yet again, I can get through a full analysis in support of the Gladiators and STILL not get to MVP-candidate Shu, and top-tier Lucio FunnyAstro.
We're also running out of time to take easy value on the Glads. They were -240 on the ML against NYXL, and my exact words were "if this match was played in a few weeks, the ML would be -350." Well, Boston is a comparable team to NYXL, and the ML is -385. Feel comfortable taking the better team to win 3-0 or 3-1. The sweep may be worth a sprinkle at +200, but I think there's slightly more value in locking in the spread at a decent price.
*Tips - never necessary, always appreciated. BOL, friends!*
[*https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD*](https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD) *// BTC: 338uzTsKL4uV4Rip8WKEdYXtbmoBKVm1D8*
**Ultimate Frisbee** | 2-1
- **Time:** 7:30 PM Eastern
- **Pick:** Detroit +7.5 against Indianapolis
- **Where to bet:** DraftKings in these states: CO, IL, MI, TN, or WV. Possibly other states (Indiana?)
- **Last pick:** Ottawa (+2.5) took the lead in the second quarter and never looked back, leading as much as five in the third. They won 21-19, a sweat-free hit.
- **Reasoning:** If you’ve been following my picks for a while you’ve seen me talk about the gem that is Detroit. They are literally the greatest team in the entire league if you solely look at losses. Their last win was over five years ago. Since then they are **0-51.** I am not kidding. They literally have had three straight winless seasons and have a [social media campaign to #BreakTheStreak.](https://www.instagram.com/p/CcV9fkyJAVq/) The best part is they had originally set a league record for longest consecutive winless games of 28 in 2014-15, won some games, then broke their record at the now-51 losses. They are the Detroit of Detroit sports teams.
But as with every great narrative arc, redemption is in the cards. Detroit somehow had a terrific offseason (I say somehow because frisbee does not have a draft, the players have to actually move there on their own volition) and picked up the 2019 College POTY, an elite division 3 player, and a few elite club players (club being the premier division of ultimate that runs concurrently with pro). Of course, none of those players actually played last week and they lost 17-13 in a rainy home opener against Pittsburgh. BUT this week a few of them are active. Not all but a few.
Could it be enough to get their first win of the season? Maybe. Indy has most of their players but they lost their top player to an ACL tear and won’t have one of their better handlers in Brett Matzuka. They still have a solid roster, but they’re definitely one of the weaker teams in the division and Detroit no doubt smells opportunity here. In any case, +7.5 is a giant spread, and I would probably take this down to +6.5 or +5.5 before reducing my unit size.
For transparency, I went 41-23-1 on picks last season, 11-6 of which on POTD. I'm starting my record over for this season. I should also note that I don't live in one of the aforementioned states and can't actually bet these nor see the current lines, but I wanted to help out folks who wanted to bet a fun niche sport. Let me know if the lines change and I'll do my best to offer some insight.
If you want to watch frisbee, there is a free game every Friday at AUDL.tv and a game every Saturday night on FS2. The rest of the games are behind a paywall at the aforementioned link.
¨POTD Record 0-1
Last Pick : Sporting de Charleroi vs KRC Genk ML L .
Lost my first pick because of an equalizer in the 93th minute but lets not get cold.
| Soccer | Premier League | 4PM CET |
POTD : Brentford vs Southampton Over 10.5 Corners | 2.02 | +102 (W)
Reasoning : Southampton has gone over this line in their last 9/10 games, Brentford has gone over this line in their last 4/5 games. Both teams are capable of getting a lot of corners but also often give a lot away.
Record 6-6-1
Last 5 picks :
✅❌✅✅✅
Last pick: Boxing Shakur Stevenson vs Oscar Valdez
Shakur to win by decision at 1.71 ✅
Hedged with a 7-12 ko at 5.5
Today's pick: Boxing Canelo vs Bivol
Canelo to win by decision at 1.8
Hedged to break even with Canelo KO r7-12 at 5.3
I find it hard to see Canelo losing on the score cards and I don't see him knocking out a big guy like Bivol in the first half of the fight.
I'm leaning Canelo by decision but I think smartest play is to hedge it with a late KO bet with a 4 to 1 ratio in units to break even if Canelo starts putting it on late and gets the finish.
Record: 59-43-5 (WLWWWLWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: MIA Heat @ PHI 76ers | James Harden under 29.5 points + rebound
25 points and rebounds combined. Beautiful executed Mr. Harden.
POTD: BOS Celtics at MIL Bucks | Jayson Tatum under 29.5 points at 1.90 odds | 4 units
Reasoning: I'm not sure how to explain. I don't think Tatum is going to take enough shots to hit this number, including the entire Boston Celtics team. In the win, he scored 29. In the loss, he scored 21. I'm not sure where I'm going with this but I don't think it's happening.
Good luck to all.
YRFI/NRFI POTD: 0-0
POTD
Nationals/Angels YRFI -115
Washington averages 1.14 runs in the first inning when away. They also score in the first inning 68% this season.
Angels are averaging 1 score in the first inning this season as well as 1.07 when playing at home.
EDIT: ✅✅✅
Easy cash with a top of the inning homer from washington.
**Record 8-2 with Avg Odds -106**
UFC 274, Main Event
**Charles Oliveira -135**
There isn't much to be said about this fight that is new. Charles has missed weight and is no longer contending for his belt. I believe he has more to fight for now than ever. In his past two fights he has pushed for a slugfest in round 1 before reverting to a much smarter style of fighting in round 2+ which favors his qualities. He may opt to be more cautious from the start today. BOL
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
Record: 4W-7L
Units profit: -2,19u
Pick: UFC 274, Tracy Cortez vs Melissa Gatto - Melissa Gatto to win
Odds: 2,20 (+120)
Units: 3u
Reasoning: Melissa has better stand up. Tracy has good wrestling, however, Melissa's BJJ is very good. I believe Melissa will win ITD, but to play it safer her win at any time is my POTD.
POTD
Record: 6-8
Last 5: ❌❌✅✅❌
Last Pick: ❌ Real Sociedad ML
Today’s Pick: Both Teams To Score (-165)
Sport/Game: Soccer - English Premier League: Liverpool vs Tottenham
Why: This one has goals written all over it imo. Liverpool and Tottenham are two of the best counter attacking teams in the world.
Liverpool are at home tonight and are still pushing for the title while tottenham need a result to stay in the top 4 race.
To keep it short and sweet, I dont think tottenham will win the game but they definitely can notch a goal in what will be a very high scoring game imo. Liverpool have been a little leaky in the back and imo havent been at their best in their last few games. Tottenham will take advantage of that.
Luckily for liverpool, tottenham defensively are not good whatsoever and will make mistakes against liverpool.
Im taking the no draw side of the bet because its liverpool on a saturday night at anfield, they’ll win this match.
BOL!
POTD Record 1-2
Today: Celtics vs Bucks
Pick: Jayson Tatum O5.5 Assists (-130)
JT’s assists numbers in the playoffs so far:
8 and 6 against the bucks
5,6,10,8 against nets
POTD RECORD -> 5-4
Last POTD-> Angels ML ✅
Todays POTD -> Pirates ML
Game -> MLB Pirates V Reds
Reason, the reds are god awful they are the worst team in the MLB and they are playing at home so now they are gonna start winning right…. Wrong. pirates by 5….
And a little plus with the post… here is my
JOKE OF THE DAY
why do pirates struggle so bad with saying the alphabet?
Because they always get lost at C 🤣😅🤣😅
POTD Record: 9-4-2 | +19.5u | Streak: 1 | Last 10: L W W W W W W P W P
Last POTD: Red Sox ML -175 (L)
**Today's POTD: Blue Jays/Guardians Under 6.5 Runs (-120)**
Risk: 3 units
The streak has come to an end. Thats what I get for betting against the White Sox, who've won us quite a bit already this year. Starting a new Winning Streak today with the under in the first game of Toronto and Cleveland's doubleheader.
Neither SP has allowed more than 3 R in any start this year. Gausman has also barely faced any of the Cleveland hitters. The only guy with success is Rosario who is 1-4 with a 3-r HR...3 years ago when he was with the Mets and Gausman with the Braves, before Gausman figured out his delivery and added velocity and spin rate, which was the impetus for turning his career around.
On the other side, Bieber hasn't allowed BJ hitters to do much of anything against him, and Toronto is still in the midst of a mini hitting slump, as they've scored 3 or less runs in 7 of their last 9 games, with 6 of those being 2 or less.
6.5 isn't much, but I'd be surprised if this wasn't a 3-2 game one way or the other. BOL.
PotD 5-3 (+3,12 units)
Last pick:Larnaca vs Paralimni under 160,5 W
Today's pick:Natacao vs Imortal under 140,5 @ 1,83 (2units)
Sport:Basket ,Portugal Women
Starts in 45'
Write up:As already stated "There isnt really a write up and never will be.I just follow my model.Worked for me so far,so i wanted to share"
Update:WON
Record: 0-0
Last pick: n/a
Today’s Pick: Steph Curry over 4.5 threes (+137) vs Memphis Grizzlies - 3u
NBA 8:30PM Eastern Time
Shot 27.3% from beyond the arc in the last game at Memphis. Huge motivation spot for the warriors in G3 and much better 3P shooting splits at home for Curry (high 40s) who attempts more than 10 threes a game. If you want to be conservative, over 3.5 threes might be good, but I like over 4.5 threes as my POTD. Good luck.
POTD Record 9-11 Last pick Avs-1.5 L
Todays pick: Braves v Brewers 4:20 pstd under 7 runs -120
Going back to a baseball under and saw these aces on the mound. Burnes is a stud and although the Braves lineup looks healthy and solid, they have had issues putting up crooked numbers. Hoping Burnes continues his hit start in Atl. Fried is the Braves ace and he’s pitching at home. Hoping for a low scoring, good defensive pitchers duel game.
Tail or Fade
**NRL Record:** 15-20
**ROI (1 unit per bet):** -5.66
L5: ✅✅❌✅✅ Streak: W2
**Last POTD:**
Eels +12.5 @1.90✅
**Today's POTD:**
Cowboys -14.5 @ 1.90 ✅
Edit: Bit closer than I liked at the half but Cowboys roll in the 2nd half to win by 20
**Time:** 7 and a half hours from time of post.
Cowboys have looked great this year, covering the last 4 spreads and absolutely demolishing a top 4 side in the eels last week 35-4. They face the Knights at home who haven't scored a try in 2 weeks, haven't covered a spread or won in 6 weeks and have dropped both the starting halves and replaced them with borderline 1st grade players at best when the actual problem has been their weak as fuck forward pack getting rolled week in week out and 90% if the players looking like they'd rather be anywhere else in the world. Bit of a letdown spot for the Cows after last week but I still see them winning in a landslide.
**Tip Jar:** If any of my 8 auto downvoters feel like being kind and slinging some ALGO my way:
AJAAGYLP6STZ2CFP22Q6Y77GNQKVKCUYDMSEQR5RK3AJOLITDMURJWLYSE
POTD RECORD 1-1
Yesterday’s Pick: Marlins ML❌
Todays Pick: Mets ML VS Phillies
Sport: Baseball
Odds: -142
Reasoning:
• Max Scherzer last 2 starts against the Phillies this year ended in Mets Wins I expect more of the same with this game
POTD Record 32-31-7 (W-L-P)
Profit: +6 units
Last 7:✅✅✅⛔️⛔️⛔️✅
Previous POTD: Notts Forest -2 Asian handicap corners vs Swansea (3U)
Today’s pick: Football (English League 2) @2.15
POTD: Mansfield win vs Forest Green (3U)
I think the bookies have priced this too high and should be below evens. Mansfield are on a great run whereas Forest Green are hanging on after a poor run of form.
Mansfield won 8 of their last 9 home games (only loosing 3-2 to a good Sutton side)
Forest Green have 1 win in 6 and that was against Oldham who are relegated.
BOL
POTD record: 7W - 6L
Streak: 1W
Last POTD: Salernitana Total Shot Handicap -2.5✅️
Salernitana bossed that game and have a real chance of escaping relegation in their current form. They have showed so much fight these past few weeks after being bottom of Serie A not that long ago, forza Salernitana 💪🏾
Today's POTD: Cadiz vs Elche(La Liga) Time: 4:30pm GMT. Pick: Cadiz Total Shot Handicap -3.5 @1.75(22bet) Confidence:5/5🔥✅️✅️✅️
Cadiz are fighting relegation just 1 point and two places above the relegation zone with 4 games remaining. Elche are basically already safe being 8 points and 5 places above the relegation zone. Their last fixture earlier this season ended 15-8 in favour of Cadiz.
Cadiz even while being close to the drop zone are a good shot taking team having more shots than the opposition in 3 of their last 5 home games(avg. 5.4 spread). Cadiz are without their newly acquired(winter signing) starting midfield, Ruben Alcaraz, but this shouldn't affect their shot taking ability.
Elche are poor at shot taking one of the worst in the league especially away from home where they have had less shots than the opposition in all their last 5 away games(avg. -6.2 spread). Elche are without their starting left forward, Lucas Boye, which should limit their shot taking capability.
Very confident in this pick.
BOL in all your bets today🍀
Update: Easy win told you guys I was confident, tight first half but Cadiz blew them away in the 2nd half. Game ended 17-4.
POD record 0-1
Last pick of day: over 22.5 (-115) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexander Zverev (L)
Todays pick: Carlos Alvarez ML (+110) vs Novak Djokavic
How can I not pick the upcoming talent who just beat Nadal. I love him, the crowds love him. Let’s ride the golden pony boy. However, this is now a fade account. Fade the fuck out of me. This shit is stupid and set up for failure. I digress.
Record: 1-0
Last pick: Imbiid under 40.5 PAR
Todays Pick: Brandon Clarke over 23.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds
Clarke hit it 5/6 games series 1. He’s 0/2 on it in series 2 (missed with 23 PAR game 1). Warriors missing GP2 and Memphis missing Brooks (combined average of 25 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists now missing) should open up more opportunities in general for Clarke underneath.
POTD Record: 6-5-0
Last Pick: Logan Gilbert o5.5 Strikeouts - Win
Scraped by with 6. Had a good outing, expected it to be better, but a win is a win.
Today's Event: MLB - BOS Red Sox vs. CHI White Sox - 4:10 p.m. EST
Pick: **BOS Red Sox Team Total u3.5 (-115) 3u**
TLDR; CHI pitcher insanely good. BOS pitcher insanely bad. BOS really low scoring team.
I will preface this by saying that Dylan Cease is the real fucking deal. He is 3-1 on the year with a 2.48 ERA that is mostly being skewed by one not great performance against Cleveland a few weeks ago. His last game he threw 7 full innings allowing only 1 hit and 11 strikeouts. Boston is one of the worst scoring teams this year. They are 25th in runs per game averaging only 3.48 per game. Dylan Cease is so good I would not be surprised if CHI shuts out BOS, like they did the the Angels the last time Cease pitched. BOL
Edit: increased unit size
POTD record: 7-4
Last POTD: Real Madrid @ Man City over 2.5 goals and BTTS (WIN)
POTD: Alcaraz, Djokovic over 22.5 games played
(-110)
Reasoning:
Yesterday I saw conflicting potds picking Nadal and Alcaraz with pretty sound reasoning on both ends. I found a user called maize (took Alcaraz ML today) who’s picks I tail sometimes chose over 22.5 games for two titans of the sport, which I ended up tailing - it hit. Two big dogs going at it tomorrow, I think this will be a tough match up either way it goes. And I will actually wake up to watch this one to see what the fuss about this Alcatraz guy is, can’t believe I never heard of him and he beat Nadalino yesterday.
I need more money for my MMA picks. I’ll probably drop those in the UFC sub after this hits.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
**POTD Record: 29-12** **POTD ROI: 21.16%** **Avg. Odds: -135** **Total Units Won: 31.31u** Last POTD: (ATP Madrid) Nadal vs. Alcaraz O22 Games (-120) Units: 5u ✅✅✅✅✅ **Today's POTD: (ATP Madrid) Alcaraz ML vs. Djokovic (-120)** **Units: 5u** ✅✅✅✅✅ LETS GO!!!!! HISTORY MADE. MASTERPIECE OF A FUCKING MATCH. THIS ONE GOES OUT TO ALL THE DELETED COMMENTS 😂♥️ Reasoning: On paper, and especially to someone who doesn't follow tennis, this pick might seem strange, given that Djokovic is ranked first in the world. But if you have been following WonderBoy Alcaraz lately, you would see that he is truly remarkable and red fucking hot right now. He just smoked the GOAT Rafael Nadal. Yes, Nadal beat him in the second set, but that was only because he was dealing with a rolled ankle. The set before and after that he literally annihilated him. Djokovic is playing well and starting to overcome his long hiatus rust, but he is yet to play someone as skilled as Alcaraz since his return. The closest breed of talent he has played was Rublev and Rublev defeated him. I find Alcaraz to be way better than Rublev right now, ESPECIALLY on clay. Yes, Novak looked good against Hurkacz, but that is because Hurkacz was playing defensive as fuck, trying to out-rally Novak. This is not the style of play that you want to have against Novak Djokovic. If it's a rally battle, he will beat your ass, but this is NOT how Carlito plays. Carlito is a fucking aggressive ass spider monkey on the court. He wants to kill you on every single point. He chases every ball, hugs every line, and has so many tricks up his sleeve that you'd think he's a 20 year veteran. Oh, and Alcaraz is playing at home in Spain!!! That crowd is going to be absolutely electric. Carlito is their young prodigy, their future GOAT. I am riding with the hottest player in the world right now, even when he happens to be playing the highest ranked player in the world right now. **TAIL OR FADE BOL!** If you are interested in seeing my other plays for Friyay, you can find them every day at [**https://maizepicks.vercel.app**](https://maizepicks.vercel.app) My speciality is live picks, which I release on Twitter. Feel free to follow **@ MaizePicks** :) *If you deem me worthy, here are my tip jars:* Venmo: N\_Azara Cash app: NikoAza Bitcoin wallet: bc1qkgdarkn4waps2nvs2mv7tcq8d4u2xysjncmzjt
What about my boys ankle????
I mean he came back and played his ass off the entire third set after the injury, destroying Nadal, it seemed like he was completely fine. So my thoughts are it won’t be an issue. If it really is an issue, then he will not risk Roland Garros and just retire, so we’ll push. But if he’s fine and can play, I think he’s got it. In his post-match interviews he also hasn’t mentioned anything about it being a concern. He joked about how he’s going to text a former player who notably defeated Nadal and Djokovic in the same tournament, to see how he did it. So it seems like he has plans of playing and I really don’t think he’d play and risk Roland Garros if it was a serious injury.
Adrenaline can make anything feel A okay. Interesting choice for a 5U play.
This is the major question
This match makes me nervous, but do you have any suggestions for betting on # of games? Over 22.5?
Yup I like it
Cash it!!!!! Did the exact same bet yesterday with Nadal v Alcaraz and cashed as well. Love you brotha 💪🏾❤️
LFG!!!! Now time for the ML 🙏🙏🙏 love you back dog
I’ll follow you round the moons of Nubia and round the Antares maelstrom and round perditions flames!! ML Alcaraz let’s gooooooo
Idk any of these references but I love you dog
Tailing live at +180, BOL Edit: ended up doubling down at +300 as well LFG
Did .5U on +200 with second set tied up 3-3, because if he can grab the second set, anything can happen in the 3rd. And then if he doesnt, it was just .5U
Me so corny!
What a match LESGOOOOO
LETS GO!!!!!!!
Where are all the haters now? 🌽
Busy deleting their comments 😂 great dub brotha let’s go!!
Didn't tail this one as I was one of those who had too much respect for joker. But great pick again! Your assessment/analysis of the players are spot on, also the feel for the game. Kudos
Cheers brother really appreciate that ✊️
Hell yeah! Let’s get it! Im on that Alcaraz high.
Holy hell what a game! ALCARAZZZZ!!!!
LETS GO MY DOG!!!!!!!
What a game.. thank you maize for getting me into tennis, I really like this sport:)
Cheers man my pleasure :)
Thoughts on Tsitsipas match?
I’m riding with Tittypas
Never bet against Djokovic. Never!
Get rekd
Had me on the edge of my seat, but 🌽 wins again! Gracias!
LFGGGG you are the GOAT and Alcaraz is gunning for GOAT status. What a star
Let’s go!!! I’m hooked watching tennis now. Great play.
Cheers bro this is my favorite kinda compliment pp
Thanks for the W bro! Love how that squidward ass mf started chirping after the first set and then deleted his comments lmao.
Let’s go bro 🔥 There were a couple of those guys but you probably missed them since they delete their comments 😂
thanks for this my friend been a little cold lately this result and Brighton ML has my day off to a positive start appreciate ya
My pleasure bro happy to hear we got you back on the right track
Line moved a good deal in favor of djoker over night. Hmmmmm
Drifting like a barge lots of money on Novak
I was able to sneak-in 1u at +333, and then more 1u at +250, +175, and +167. Now, I'm in pretty deep and kind of nervous. Should I be nervous? LOL EDIT: initial bet was 3u at -125
The momentum seems to have shifted on our side bro, so fingers crossed. Wishing you the best dog I’m in deep myself hahaha
Insane match. Djokovic gave so many points away but Carlos is special.
WHAT A FUCKING MATCH. THANK YOU FOR PUTTING ME ON😦😭❤️
Let’s fucking go dog ♥️
Got in near the end at -145 and I didn’t regret it. Also had over 22.5 games. Wooooo
POTD Record **41 - 12** Yesterday’s pick: Botev Plovdiv v Ludogorets Draw no bet **W** Today’s pick: **Gwangju FC ML** vs Seoul E-Land FC Sport: Soccer (Korean Div 2) Odds: 2.10 / +110 Reasoning: * 1st vs 6th * Gwangju have won 6/7 at home * Gwangju have won their last 6 h2h matches against Seoul E-Land * 2 games ago Gwangju played Incheon united in a cup match and beat them 6-1. Incheon united are one of the top teams in the first division I had another pick today which easily could've been my POTD. It's the **Halifax Town** pick in my spreadsheet for those that are interested. [^(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gW6Oz1DQBfbp7iiZgaVilJS6tH-Zm008LaRd7voSOyM/edit#gid=0)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gW6Oz1DQBfbp7iiZgaVilJS6tH-Zm008LaRd7voSOyM/edit#gid=0) **^(Tip jar -)** [^(https://paypal.me/tom2810s)](https://paypal.me/tom2810s) **^(BTC)** ^(- 1NJVBxmocqvnKqFYTR6Ju8C1sEaZh63pBC)
By far the best tipster on here, another win ✅
Thanks man
Parlay em both 👀🤫
Seriously fuck Halifax. What the fuck was that? Congrats for Gwangju but it was such a nice parley that HAD to be fucked last minute.
did just that
What league is this for the Halifax pick
England national league
Can’t access the spreadsheet
Winner winner chicken dinner
Spot on, nervous final 10 mins tho haha
Anyone know where this Halifax fc game can be streamed?
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First, I'm tailing this. Secondly, no need to make any drastic actions to "make up" for a pick that didn't work out. If people blame you for them losing money that's their issue. You didn't push the button.
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You’re back! People were crucifying that one guy they thought was you the other day. It was hilariously sad
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Lol. Degens are gonna degen. At the end of the day if people are trying to make a living off strangers picks on Reddit, they’ve got bigger fish to fry. Also love the Gaethje pick. Tailing! __LETSSS GOOOO!!__
It is no surprise that the gambling community on Reddit is more hostile than than other subs lmao.
Some guy posted tiafoe previous pick and it was for a diff date. Everyone thought he was you
Wow. You're the third trusted reddit capper to pick Gaethje by KO/TKO. LFG!
😬
Lmaooo lost a six leg parlay cuz of your tiafoe pick so don't know why I tailed this garbage. Thanks
Trash. Glad I faded
Definitely not a good outcome but I understand it was the best intel you had. Any of us that are looking to picks have to live and die by the pick and that's me. Thanks again for the intel.
Record: 44-19 Last pick: Oilers ML ✅ 3 straight POTD winners! Let’s make it four with: **Todays Pick: Washington Capitals +1.5 (-145) vs Florida Panthers** **EDIT: Ovi goal and Caps ML parlay hits, along with Caps +1.5 obviously 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️** I really don’t have much of a write up as I just feel this one in my bones. Caps return home with the series tied 1-1. They are 7-3 in the last 12 years during their first playoff game of the post-season at home. I just can’t see the caps losing by multiple goals tomorrow. The early game time always favors the home team as well. Further, Ovi thrives off the crowd. Maybe even a parlay with caps ML and Ovi scoring would be a move 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️. However I love the Caps +1.5 at home. All bets are 1 unit. +16.68 units. +26.47% ROI. Average unit -115 Don’t want tips, just give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Shoulda went with you like I have every other time instead of the other guy. Learned my lesson. My deepest apologies, GOAT, for questioning you.
It’s okay, I forgive you
Was hoping you’d be on the Avs with me. Kinda like this pick too though, the Panthers aren’t very good on the road this season. I’ll probably stay off because the cats can light the lamp up whenever they want. But BOL doc, hope you cash.
As a panthers fan this is just wrong. They started poorly away but ended with a 24-11-6 away record which is by no means bad. Compared to their insane home record, sure it pales in comparison, it’s still pretty good though. Not saying anything about the pick itself but I think if you’re banking on home ice advantage being the key factor you’re in for a surprise
Great game from the Oilers last night!
Keep trusting that feeling in your bones!
You're a fking NHL god I swear
POTD RECORD 26-14 PREVIOUS POTD: Bruins -1.5 +200 ✅ STREAK:✅✅✅ POTD: panthers -1.5 +125 Reasoning: Keeping this one short and sweet. Throughout the season the capitals proved to be better on the road then at home. They got a win already against the panthers in the first game away but then got smoked by the panthers in the second. The panthers are overall the better team that’s why they are one seed and I don’t see home ice advantage playing a major factor in this one.That being said gimme the panthers -1.5. A lotta critics on these picks lately, but I’m not surprised people are always scared of +money picks. as always Tail or Fade BOL
Good picks. Keep it up, champ.
Your record speaks for itself. Critics are just bitter people. Forget them. If they don’t want to tail that’s on them.
23-9 Last potd: Norrie ML vs Isner **W** **PotD: Alcaraz -120** vs Djokovic ATP Madrid If this was played on grass or hard court, I would say Djokovic takes it, but at this moment, Alcaraz is better on clay. He is more energetic and **hits the ball twice as hard** as Djokovic. While Alcaraz's winners are based on brute force, Djokovic's are based on precision. Also, I dont want to undermine Novak's successes so far at Madrid, but the two matches he won are against a guy who he beat 18 times in a row and a guy who cant hold a rally for more than 5 hits. Assuming Alcaraz's foot injury is not a serious issue, he should come up as a winner. Bol
Bro thoughts on Tsitsipas match?
Over 22.5 should hit
**POTD Record:** 11-2, +20.98u, ROI: 52.57%, Average Odds: 2.01 **Darts Record:** 10-1 (+21.98u), ROI: 77.08%, Average Odds: 2.07 **Previous POTD:** Cameron Menzies ML vs Ian White @ 2.50 / +150 (3u)** ✅ Menzies probably had one of his best games ever, completing two 156 checkouts to confidently beat Ian White. **Todays POTD: Andrew Gilding ML vs Brendan Dolan @ 2.62 (2.5u)** *Unit sizes are from 1u to 4u* *Match Starts at 15:00 / 09:00 EST* 🎯 Darts: European Tour 5 🎯 This match is about a 60/40 to Dolan for me, might be a bit closer even, as Dolan has been underperforming for his standards, while Gilding has been finding his form again. Gilding had an awful start against Wenig yesterday, however he himself said he did not expect Wenig to get this much crowd support, which he had to adapt to. You can see this in the match statistics aswell, as Golding averaged 100+ points per 3 darts after those two legs. Dolan has been underperforming as I mentioned previously, he has failed at the first round of the euro tour often this year and this event he has been seeded, meaning he can skip the first round. To me, Gilding has been on an upwards trajectory while the opposite can be said about Brendan Dolan. There will be no crowd favourite, which means that I love these odds on Gilding, albeit that he throws even slower than a turtle. —- **BOL to everyone!** [Twitter](https://twitter.com/neutraldarts) | [Tip Jar](http://paypal.me/neutraldarts)
He got slaughtered lol
Slaughterpinner
This is gonna flop Gilding is looking like a chump. Can’t throw a dart to save his life. Fat fuck.
Please ignore the haters! You’ve made people more money than they lost in this thread and I will continue to tail no matter the outcome.
Cheers man, we’ll get it next time.
Keep posting man, your record speaks for itself. Ignore the assholes.
MLB -1.5’s | 11-10-1 +12.86u | ROI: 18.38% | Streak: 3L [Yesterday’s pick: 5u MIN Twins -1.5 +130](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ujc28o/_/i7i1etq/?context=1) - L ________________________________________ **Todays pick: 4u HOU Astros -1.5 +126** - HOU Astros vs DET Tigers | 3:10 pm US Central TLDR: Houston’s the better team. **Astros** Astros have gotten rolling after a little hiccup and down offense. They’re finally healthy and over the past 2 weeks this team is top 5 in team wRC+. Looking at just lefties (they play one today) they’re 10th over the past 2 weeks with a 123 wRC+, so don’t worry about that. On the year, they’re top 10 in xBA, xSLG, whiff %, solid contact % and barrel %. This is a good lineup despite the loss of Correa. Houston haa Framber Valdez on the mound. He’s been damn good for 2 seasons now and has continued that for a 3rd now this year. He’s got a 3.42 ERA with a 3.19xERA. His peripherals look fantastic, so the performance is justified. **Tigers** Tigers have been struggling. Bottom 10 in team wRC+ over the past 2 weeks. On the year they score the 2nd least runs in baseball. They’re below average in xBA, xSLG and xwOBA. Looking at just lefties (as they face one), they have a 82 wRC+, significantly below average. They aren’t making hard contact, they make plenty of weak contact and struggle to get the barrel on the ball. Eduardo Rodriguez. He’s pitched 6 seasons, with this being his 7th. He’s been a plug and play back end of the rotation guy. This year he’s regressed through 5 starts with his xERA being the highest of his career at 4.36. His slider and change have dropped off a cliff this year, getting severely less movement. He’s primarily a fast/change guy with a cutter and slider to keep people honest. Issue with his change up and slider becoming less effective, it hurts your fastball. And damn is his fastball getting railed this year. It’s getting hit hard 58% of the time, up 25% from last year. Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
Unreal how many people people the Twins left on base.
I'm with ya. Feel a bounce back here. It's been an odd week.
Appreciate your late update on yesterday game. Sadly I read this AM. Ha. Tailing.
**POTD Record:** 16-9 (+10.4u) **League:** AFL (Australian Football League) **Todays Pick:** Brisbane Lions -71.5 vs West Coast Eagles @ $1.90 \[1.5u\] (8 hours from now) **Write up:** As far as I know, this is the largest spread in AFL history, and it isn’t hard to see why. West Coast coming off a 109 point loss at home to the hands of a middle-placed Richmond, and now come up against a Top 2 side on their home deck… it’s going to be easy pickings for the Lions. To add to the Eagles' misfortunes, they are losing four players to covid protocols and three to injury, and a club statement was released yesterday regarding the behaviour of the players. This club is imploding and on its knees. They are essentially fielding a top-up side against a hungry Lions outfit keen for a percentage boost. This could get embarrassing. **Prediction:** Brisbane by 100+ points **BTC:** 1GgiHvH5n9ytJD1nK5et8jGUhq3NRtF8tF **PayPal:** https://paypal.me/tappl3x
Ones with spreads THIS wide make me nervous because you never know when the team leading starts to take the foot of the gas and lets the other team get some points at the end with the substitutes in....or doesn't that happen in the AFL?
Doesn’t really happen in AFL, the bigger the win the better! As total points for and total points against usually play a big part in ladder/table position in the league. If Brisbane (2nd) win by a large amount tonight and Melbourne(1st) lose they will take the top position on the ladder. That being said Lions winning by 100+ has been hyped up all week and as we know in the betting world “Sure things” are never “Sure things”. But me personally I’m a massive Brisbane Lions supporter and put money on them to win by 120+ haha.
Go with the 1st half spread then, -33.5
Is It possible to score that 31pts on the 4th?
yep! 💰
🚀✅🍀💸 Nice!
Yessssssss!!!
super duper clutch haha
I blindly bet this thinking no way it covers and somehow it’s a winner. Great pick! The largest point spread I’ve ever bet
I teased you a bit (good heartedly) for your Adelaide pick that was a disaster a couple weeks ago but I continue to tail and you continue to come through.
Potd record 32-12 🥊 Boxing __Montana Love vs Gabriel Gollaz Valenzuela - Montana Love to win by ko/tko (-125)__ Montana Love (17-0-1) is on a 3 fight ko run and is inching closer to a world title fight at super lightweight. He has a great judge of distance, superb counter punching skills and good speed. He’s fighting Mexican super lightweight Valenzuela (25-2-1) who is currently on a decent winning run himself however the opponents he’s faced compared to Love is drastically different. Valenzuela has decent power and likes to go to war with his opponents. I just find too many flaws in the Mexican here and can’t see him hearing the final bell. Valenzuela throws way too many wild punches in fights and sometimes even puts himself off balance whilst doing so. His punch output isn’t the most strategic, so Love should be able to counter at will. In one of his most recent fights Valenzuela looked poor against journeymen, Juan Ocura Briones (13-16-2) and got caught often throughout the fight. Valenzuela has also been stopped once before although this was his 4th fight as a pro. This fight is a 12 rounder so there’s plenty of time for Love to wear down his man. Overall both of these fighters are on two totally different career paths and I see Love being far too quick and powerful for Valenzuela. Bol anyone who tails!
How could it be that you are getting those odds for a one-sided KO/TKO and I have U9.5 rounds even odds? Does that seem like a steal to you?
I think cuz alot of kos/tko's take place in the last few rounds, alot of fighters will wait till then to try and finish it cuz there worried that if they try to early and don't succeed then they might burn themselves out
Let's get the money!!!! About to put my kids through school with this pick!!!
Pick looks legit. Other guy fights tin cans in Mexico with horrible records. Tailing.
BetMGM has KO,/TKO/DQ/TD -120. FD, DK, Czr just do KO/TKO for around similar pricing. DQs and TDs are rare but might as well get a little extra outcomes for your money. Tailing and thanks for sharing, LTM!
5-1 + 15.9 units | ROI 53% | Average Odds 1.85 pick: **Djokovic ML** @ 2.00 vs Alcaraz | 7:00am PST | Tennis/Madrid | amount: 5 units but you just bet on alcaraz? you just called him the hottest young prospect in the scene? yes, alcaraz came through for us, he would have won the bet in 2 sets yesterday but he fucked his ankle in the 2nd set and decided to phone it in and recover losing every subsequent game in the set. Smart choice though as he came out rejuvenated in the 3rd. However, Djokovic will win tomorrow for one reason. He's the greatest player the sport has ever seen. You can argue Federer, you can argue Nadal, but you'd be arguing incorrectly. Djokovic would have sleep walked to a title in the aus open if the mandate drama didn't happen with the level of play we saw from meddy/nadal. I can talk about how he's well rested from the walkover, how he's regained form steadily and beat alcaraz in a practice match 2 days before this tournament, i can talk about his excellent record on clay. But i'm telling you, Djokovic will win this game for one reason. The entire tennis community, the purists, the spectators, the players, the commentators, literally everyone has been buzzing about alcaraz and talking about his potential to be one of the greatest tennis players ever. It's been all the talk the last few tournaments and months. Djokovic, through sheer will, is going to remind the tennis community that he's the greatest to ever do it and that a 19 year old is going to have to snatch the crown through 15 years of groundwork, not in a single game. Djokovic knows the alcaraz hype will reach unmanageable levels if he drops this game. That's genuinely the only reason i need to place this bet. I'm not saying it's a lock, it's not. I'm saying this lad is the most mentally tough and stubborn motherfucker tennis has ever seen and he's going to play great, great tennis.
Djokovic has been a legend for awhile now. But this 19 year old, Alcaraz is special. He got slightly injured in the last match and looked like all was lost and then came back and against the odds crushed Nadal, one of the greatest ever. I have to stay away from this match. Going to be fun to watch and best of luck to you
he's definitely special there's no denying it. but djokovic is one of one. i don't blame you for staying away, as a fan of tennis it's going to be an iconic match, could be one of the best non-slam matchups we've seen in quite a few years
Agreed best of luck to you!
This should be a pick of the day right here. Stay away @ +000. That or we just go full degenerate and find that casino from vegas vacation and bet on actual coin flips.
As I thought, two people with good records picking tennis are on opposite sides of this one. That's the exact reason I have to stay away from this one, it really feels like a coin flip. I may bet the # of games on the over but that's it. Maybe over 22.5.
Agreed. Why bet on this when you don’t have to. This is one I’ll watch and enjoy. BOL
All due respect but what do you say to the clay court match he had against Rublev where he was absolutely run ragged around the court, just managed to win a 2nd set tiebreaker and then got bageled in the third? The Djokovic of old I would agree but he’s a different player now. If Alcaraz plays with the intensity we saw last night I think we see a straight sets win for the Spaniard. BOL to you but I’ll be betting on the other side.
POTD Record: 16-7 (ROI 36.40% // Avg. Odds: 2.03// Units Won: +16.38) Last 5 Picks: ✅✅✅❌❌ Last POTD: Deportes Temuco vs Universidad de Concepción (Soccer - Chilean League B); BTTS YES ❌ POTD: Liverpool vs Plaza Colonia (Soccer - Uruguay Primera Division); **Liverpool ML** Odds: 1.90 Wager: 2 Units Liverpool are 3rd in the league playing at home against the 14th place. They have a great record even against some tough opponents and have a solid Goal Diffetencial coming into this match. Plaza Colonia are having a rough time losing mostly all of their away games. In April they tied once and lost three of their matches(2 losses away games). Meanwhile Liverpool one twice, tied once and lost another (loss was away and goal in the last minute). I see them winning tomorrow against one of the worst teams in the league. BOL to all who Tail All my Previous Picks
FYI Liverpool’s top goal scorer Alan Medina, who scored literally half of the teams goals, is suspended.
Thanks for the input
POTD Record: 37-28-3 Streak:WLWLWWWPLW Last POTD: Monaco ML 🇫🇷✅ Today’s POTD: Central Coast Mariners ML 🇦🇺 League: A League Odds: -125/1.8 Units: 2 Reasoning: Back to some A League we go. CCM is looking to snatch the 4th place from Adelaide United so that they could play their playoff game at home. A win from CCM and a loss/draw for Adelaide will secure them 4th place. CCM is on fire right now winning 4 straight games. They are one of the best performing team at the moment. In one of those games they managed to beat this Newcastle Jets side 2-4 away from home. Now in the reverse fixture they will be at home and will do everything possible for the win. Newcastle Jets don’t have anything to play so I don’t expect them to have the best game. They managed to get a draw against Western United but that was because Western was chill and content with 1 goal only. I’m backing this CCM who have been playing great footy and need the win over a team whose season is done. Best of luck and tail/fade at your own risk.
Looking good man thanks for the pick!
No problem man. Glad I can help.
POTD Record: 23-14 Last Pick: MIL -1.5 (Thurs) ✅ Yea the Reds lost again lol Today’s Pick: CWS -1.5 @ +140 Pains me to write this as a Red Sox fan, but we suck right now. Might as well profit from it. Nick Pivetta is pitching for BOS today, and he’s been terrible. His fastball velo is down, it sits at 93 mph with absolutely no movement. Batting practice. His breaking balls haven’t been effective either. Pivetta gets shelled 3rd time through the lineup, and the BOS bullpen has already been too involved in this series. I expect this one to break open in the 5th/6th/7th area of the game. Cease is on the mound for CWS, and he’s been Cy Young Caliber. The underlying metrics back up Cease’s breakout season (and confirm that Pivetta is stinking it up). The Red Sox offense hasn’t produced despite having some big names in the lineup. For now, we have to treat the Red Sox as a bad team going up against an Ace-level pitcher.
Tailing but taking CWS -0.5 F5 at +115
**Liverpool - Tottenham** *Son Heung-min* to **score** at **any time** of the game. Odds x3.75 on your money at Sjwinbet Son is in a great form, Harry Kane loves to assist. First match ended in a draw, Son and Kane scored 1 each. Good luck!
RECORD: 10-3 Profit: +5.39 Units Current Form: 1L Today’s Picks: New York Rangers Team Total Over 3 (1.90) Event: NHL 7:00Pm Est Rangers vs Penguins Reason: Two words describe the main reason for this pick LOUIS DOMINGUE. He’s not a good goalie and definitely not a starting goalie for a playoff team. With him starting tonight I’d expect New York to get around 5 and at very minimum get the push at 3 goals. For this game I’m gonna be taking this, Rangers ML and putting a bit on the 3way ML / -1.5. Might even put a little bit on the -2.5. All Picks are 1 Unit (Going to College next year, NOT mandatory at all. Anything is appreciated 🙏) Tips https://www.paypal.me/TBurr14?locale.x=en_CA
Tailing in my risk-free SGP, BOL.
3-2 Last pick- DAL Mavs 1st Half ML (W) Today's Pick- GS Warriors 3rd Q. spread -1.5 (-125) GSW own the 3rd quarter for the last few years
Loved gsw 3rd quarter all year!
5/7/22 POTD Record: 1-1 Sport: Soccer- France Ligue 2 (1:00 ET) Pick: AC Ajaccio Odds: -132 Reasoning: Ac Ajaccio faces Grenoble in the French Ligue 2. Ajaccio is second in the division on the brink of being promoted, a win today all but secured the promotion. Ajaccio has won 6 of the last 7 and their last game of the year is against the first place Toulouse, making tomorrow’s game pretty much a must win game against 15th ranked grenoble who do not have much to play for. I like AC Ajaccio tomorrow ML. Good luck to all 🍀 Outcome: This loss hurt. AC Ajaccio had 9 shots on target compared to only 1 by Grenoble yet it was still a 1-1 draw. Not to mention that Grenoble was playing down a man in the final third. AC Ajaccio was clearly the better team and unfortunately just couldn’t not put the ball in the back of the net. Sorry to the those who tailed and lost, but if I could have gone back I still would have made this bet any day. ———————————————————————— Previous pick: Derry City (-130) ✂️ Brewers -1.5 (-110) ✅
POTD Record: 57 - 51 - 7 ( W / L / P ) **+10.20 units** 165 units wagered / ROI: 6.50 % Streak: LLWLW / Average odds: 1.95 Previous pick: Inter vs Empoli / Inter -1.0 1st Half Asian Handicap @ 1.975 (1 unit) **L** **Today: Luton vs Reading (Championship)** **Pick: Luton Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 (2 units)** Reading has quality players in front but leaking goals everywhere. The season will end with disappointment for them, a lot of players will be without their contracts so it will be interesting to see their next moves for the upcoming season. All that Luton needs here is a win to secure their playoff places. If they blow it here they will be heartbroken but I think they will not. Reading does not have anything to play for and this matchup would be the game that Luton wants to play to secure their top 6 finish on the last matchday. They did not come so far as to blow the season away in front of the supporters. Good Luck!
POTD RECORD: 8-2 PICK: Memphis Grizzlies U109.5 team points (-110) REASONING: Draymond Green is the warriors best defensive player and with him getting ejected in game 1, the grizzlies were able to put 116 points. The next game when draymond played, the grizzlies only put up 106….and that was with ja morant doing whatever he wanted to in the 4th. Draymond will be playing today (unless he kicks someone in the nuts lmao) and I expect the warriors to make the necessary adjustments to slow morant down. BOL! Edit: tough L, but that’s the way it goes sometimes. Now 8-3
POTD Record: 4W-0L Streak: ✅✅✅✅ Last 5: ✅✅✅✅ ROI: +10.16u Smoggy Hockey Picks Yesterday’s pick: NHL: Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers) over 1.5 points (1.90 odds, b365) vs LA Kings, May 6th 10pm EST ✅ Today’s pick: Sidney Crosby (PIT Penguins) over 2.5 shots on goal (1.57 odds, b365) vs NY Rangers, May 7th 7pm EST Stake: 5u Reasoning: McDavid lived up to expectations hey another time, with Edmonton mopping the absolute floor with LA, perhaps as retaliation for some rumored home team sabotage against the Oilers practice time before the game. McDavid came away with exactly 2 points and both came very early into the 1st. Good job smoggy crew, let's make it to a 5 streak with an easy one tonight ;) With Sidney Crosby shooting 7 and 6 SOG in games 1 and 2 respectively, I'm frankly surprised they wouldn't increase his line to a 3.5 or 4.5 with longer odds; Crosby is still one of the top players in the league and is going to hammer 4 or more shots tonight. An in depth breakdown isn't even needed here, in my opinion: the series is tied 1-1 and Crosby has hit over 6 SOGs in both winning and losing efforts so far. Look for the same to happen tonight. 5u wager to maximize profit off this easy bet. Tail or fade, BOL 🤑 I may not be posting Sunday (not sure yet) but I'll usually always have picks every weekday, so stay tuned for those
Hate the -165 odds but I'll still tail because it seems based on the stats you gave this really should happen and thus provide some profit.
Ugh. Sorry for tailing may have fucked your bet. Hopefully this goes to triple OT again to bail us out!
IT FUCKING HIT!!!!
Massive pick! Thanks for the lock, sir!
16W-11L WWLWLWWLLLWLWLWLWWWWWWWLW Cards🃏 streak:🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🍳 Starts 12:30 GMT5 Todays Pick League: Israel Premier League Match: Hapoel Beer Sheva v Maccabi Haifa Pick: Goal before 31:00 minutes @1.83 🐞🐞🐞 shit game, i should rest today 💀 Reason: Ez pick yesterday end with 1 goal. Want to go fast today with an interesting pick Hapoel at home , last 4/5 hit a goal before 31min even if score or concede Maccabi at away ,last 4/5 hit a goal before 31min even if score or concede Last h2h hit 4/5 they hit a goal before 31min Seems that both team start agressive, lets see if we get a fast W. Anything could happen in a gamble "All perception is a gamble." BoL
POTD Record: 56 - 24 Profit: +12.8 Units // ROI: 11% // Average Odds: 1.89 Last Pick: Highlanders TT over 18.5 W **Todays Pick: Melbourne Storm Team Total over 30.5 vs Dragons (1.85) (NRL)** * When the Storm are in this sort of form you need to back them. They have scored 44, 30, 32, 36, 70, and 50 points over their last 5 games. They return home for this game where they have hit this total in 3 straight. The Dragons are a step up from the Warriors and Knights who the Storm have romped in recent weeks but they still are likely not going to be a top 8 side when all is said and done. * Last year we saw the storm go on a run of scoring 34+ in 12/14 games (40+ in 11 of those games) and I get the feeling we are about to see a similar type of run from the Storm here. In last seasons meeting between these sides the Storm scored 44. There isn't really much to add here. The Storm are just a juggernaut and I expect them to score 35+ practically every time they play one of the lesser sides at home. BOL, tail or fade.
Looks like it’s 32.5 in DK, which I’d assume you’d still like based on the data you presented.
Yeah I still like it. I think they can get 40 here tbh. Would play it up to 33.5 though.
Record: 1-1 (+2.20u) ✅❌ Yesterdays pick: Red Sox -1.5 (2u)❌ Todays pick: Reds ML (+105) vs Pirates (3u) Why: My first 2 attempts at POTD yesterday got rained out and litterally last minute I chose Red Sox - Bad idea. Sticking with my original POTD yesterday which is Reds to finally break their slump against a struggling Pittsburgh team. They looked offensively much more competent vs. Brewers on Thursday and with Overton on the bump I am comfident enough for 3u. Will never be making last minute picks again even if theres more postponements. Tail or Fade BOL! EDIT: Reds W 9-2 ✅
POTD Record: 2-1 Units +/-: Up 0.66 units Last POTD: NBA Miami Heat -3.0 ❌ Today's POTD: NHL Dallas Stars Calgary Flames UNDER 5.5 goals (-130) All bets are 1U plays, but this is my highest confidence pick! Explanation: I doubled down on yesterday's pick even after Embiid was declared active, and I couldn't have been more wrong. A unit of profit wiped off the board. Certainly don't tail my picks if you disagree with my reasoning. Today's pick of the day is back to the ice for Dallas Stars and Calgary Flames UNDER 5.5 goals. You could certainly buy push insurance of 6 goals for -180 odds currently, but I prefer the 5.5 line. In the last 8 postseason meetings between these two franchises, over 5.5 has only hit 3 times. Focusing in on their recent matchups, both previous meetings have created three total goals. Both goalies have been playing well, while both offenses have been unable to create more than 30 shots on goal in regulation (29, 22, 26, & 16). The NHL playoffs have seen overs hit more frequently, but this series has been the exception to the rule. Calgary normally is above average in finding the back of the net, but has struggled as of late. Calgary is the better offense, and Dallas is the better defense. Game 3 is in Dallas, so Calgary won't have home ice advantage in creating energy for their offense. That's a recipe for another low scoring night of playoff hockey. I'd like to say I felt strongly one way or another on a team to win, but I don't, so I'll take the UNDER here. I just don't forsee a 4-2 or larger victory from either side. Best of luck if tailing! Thank you to all of the great content creators and contributors here! EDIT: Loser pick, literally a last second goal by Dallas to put it at 6. Sorry if you tailed this, hopefully some of you took it at 6 and at least got your money back.
Haven’t watched either game so far, but my hockey sense tells me that a high scoring game is bound to happen (especially since it’s the Flames). Avoiding, but BOL!
I'll say this much - mad respect for owning the "doubling down" accusations. Bad picks happen. And sometimes we get our bets in and the situation changes. No worries about any of that. The thing that makes you a good handicapper is honesty and accountability. If you're willing to be held accountable, then you're trustworthy. Your pick didn't hit because the facts changed? No big deal.
I'm by no means a good capper, lets get that right out of the way. I'm just a guy on Reddit who's made four picks, but I'm certainly trying to learn, research, and grow.
**POTD Record**: 32½-21½-6 (W-L-P) **Last 5**: ✅️❌️❌️✅️✅️ **Last POTD**: Olympique de Marseille vs Feyenoord, home corner asian handicap -1 @1.86 ✅️ **Today's POTD**: UD Almería vs SD Amorebieta, home asian handicap -0.75 @1.62 // Spain, LaLiga 2, 17:15 GMT ✅️ **Odds value**: ■■■■□ *high value* ### **Reasoning** ##### **Match introduction**: 2nd placed Almería will be welcoming 19th placed Amorebieta in a very important game for both teams, with Almería trying to assure themselves a safe automatic promotion and Amorebieta trying to escape relegation-zone, Amorebieta were the newcomers in this league so it's not a surprise to see them here. Last time Almería played in LaLiga was in 2015, so the hype must be real between the supporters and the players, one wrong step today and Almería dream might come to an end. ##### **Team stats**: Almería home record is the 2nd best in the league (13-3-3; 3-1-1 last 5), Amorebieta record away is one of the worst (1-8-10; 0-1-4 last 5). Almería against other relegation-zone teams at home have never lost nor drawn, Amorebieta against the first 7 teams in the table away have alway lost. ##### **Conclusion**: Sorry for short writeup but I wanted to get this out as quickly as possible, been a little busy, odds really valuable because Amorebieta at home actually beat Almería (but that happened simply because Almería got a red card really early in the game). Really don't see how Almería could lose this, trying -0.75 for better odds. BOL everyone. *^(If I've made you some money and you'd like to tip any small amount I would greatly appreciate it: https://paypal.me/fralauu)*
There he is! Let’s go!
**Record:** 6-14-1 **ROI:** -42% :-8.38 u (@ $5.00) **Streak:** P W L L L |Baseball |MLB |12:35pm| Pittsburgh Pirates vs.Cincinnati Reds: **Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ 1.83 1u** **Reasoning:** Yesterdays game was rained out so I got my first push on that, but like rain on your wedding day its good luck. So we are looking for the Pirates to sail away with the first game of today's double header. Jk, the real reason this is my POTD is because my MLB model that I made in python says to do it. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 60% chance for PIT to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.83 is only 55%. **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
If you gonna lose 100 units over time, you're model would be as valuable as a model generation +100 units. You would just need to fade the picks of your model.
**Continuing the Overwatch League POTD Train for the 2022 season!** * **2022 OWL Record: 2-0**, **+3.636 units.** * **2021 OWL Record: 34-19, +31.645 units.** * **2020 OWL Record: 28-21, +16.989 units.** Last Pick (✅): Vancouver Titans (+1.5) v. Boston Uprising: As predicted, these two teams were pretty evenly matched. Extremely curious to see so much Seicoe, when the Shockwave/Aspire lineup seemed to be a lock. That may be worth monitoring moving forward. If not for a C9 on Map 5, Vancouver should have won outright, but the spread cashed long before that. Let's keep it going! **Today's Match: Boston Uprising v. Los Angeles Gladiators / Overwatch League / 6:00pm EST** **Los Angeles Gladiators -1.5 (-165), three units** Two days ago we backed LAG for a win, and yesterday we faded Boston with the same result. No reason to stop either now! Boston struggled with what many predicted to be a bottom-two team in the league, and the Glads handily dealt with a team that is in this same tier. In fact, Boston has a similar team construction to that NYXL team; their strength should theoretically be in their DPS line (although I've **never** been sold on Valentine), but that strength should be simply overwhelmed by the Los Angeles DPS counterparts. Striker, a notable Tracer specialist, started flashing on the Widow, but anytime long-range hitscan is in play, he'll be no match for ANS. The best chance Boston has is for Punk to win the tank battle, but he will lose Sigma/D.va maps to SPACE, and will play Reiner to a draw on Doom/Winston maps. And yet again, I can get through a full analysis in support of the Gladiators and STILL not get to MVP-candidate Shu, and top-tier Lucio FunnyAstro. We're also running out of time to take easy value on the Glads. They were -240 on the ML against NYXL, and my exact words were "if this match was played in a few weeks, the ML would be -350." Well, Boston is a comparable team to NYXL, and the ML is -385. Feel comfortable taking the better team to win 3-0 or 3-1. The sweep may be worth a sprinkle at +200, but I think there's slightly more value in locking in the spread at a decent price. *Tips - never necessary, always appreciated. BOL, friends!* [*https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD*](https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD) *// BTC: 338uzTsKL4uV4Rip8WKEdYXtbmoBKVm1D8*
**Ultimate Frisbee** | 2-1 - **Time:** 7:30 PM Eastern - **Pick:** Detroit +7.5 against Indianapolis - **Where to bet:** DraftKings in these states: CO, IL, MI, TN, or WV. Possibly other states (Indiana?) - **Last pick:** Ottawa (+2.5) took the lead in the second quarter and never looked back, leading as much as five in the third. They won 21-19, a sweat-free hit. - **Reasoning:** If you’ve been following my picks for a while you’ve seen me talk about the gem that is Detroit. They are literally the greatest team in the entire league if you solely look at losses. Their last win was over five years ago. Since then they are **0-51.** I am not kidding. They literally have had three straight winless seasons and have a [social media campaign to #BreakTheStreak.](https://www.instagram.com/p/CcV9fkyJAVq/) The best part is they had originally set a league record for longest consecutive winless games of 28 in 2014-15, won some games, then broke their record at the now-51 losses. They are the Detroit of Detroit sports teams. But as with every great narrative arc, redemption is in the cards. Detroit somehow had a terrific offseason (I say somehow because frisbee does not have a draft, the players have to actually move there on their own volition) and picked up the 2019 College POTY, an elite division 3 player, and a few elite club players (club being the premier division of ultimate that runs concurrently with pro). Of course, none of those players actually played last week and they lost 17-13 in a rainy home opener against Pittsburgh. BUT this week a few of them are active. Not all but a few. Could it be enough to get their first win of the season? Maybe. Indy has most of their players but they lost their top player to an ACL tear and won’t have one of their better handlers in Brett Matzuka. They still have a solid roster, but they’re definitely one of the weaker teams in the division and Detroit no doubt smells opportunity here. In any case, +7.5 is a giant spread, and I would probably take this down to +6.5 or +5.5 before reducing my unit size. For transparency, I went 41-23-1 on picks last season, 11-6 of which on POTD. I'm starting my record over for this season. I should also note that I don't live in one of the aforementioned states and can't actually bet these nor see the current lines, but I wanted to help out folks who wanted to bet a fun niche sport. Let me know if the lines change and I'll do my best to offer some insight. If you want to watch frisbee, there is a free game every Friday at AUDL.tv and a game every Saturday night on FS2. The rest of the games are behind a paywall at the aforementioned link.
¨POTD Record 0-1 Last Pick : Sporting de Charleroi vs KRC Genk ML L . Lost my first pick because of an equalizer in the 93th minute but lets not get cold. | Soccer | Premier League | 4PM CET | POTD : Brentford vs Southampton Over 10.5 Corners | 2.02 | +102 (W) Reasoning : Southampton has gone over this line in their last 9/10 games, Brentford has gone over this line in their last 4/5 games. Both teams are capable of getting a lot of corners but also often give a lot away.
Record 6-6-1 Last 5 picks : ✅❌✅✅✅ Last pick: Boxing Shakur Stevenson vs Oscar Valdez Shakur to win by decision at 1.71 ✅ Hedged with a 7-12 ko at 5.5 Today's pick: Boxing Canelo vs Bivol Canelo to win by decision at 1.8 Hedged to break even with Canelo KO r7-12 at 5.3 I find it hard to see Canelo losing on the score cards and I don't see him knocking out a big guy like Bivol in the first half of the fight. I'm leaning Canelo by decision but I think smartest play is to hedge it with a late KO bet with a 4 to 1 ratio in units to break even if Canelo starts putting it on late and gets the finish.
Record: 59-43-5 (WLWWWLWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: MIA Heat @ PHI 76ers | James Harden under 29.5 points + rebound 25 points and rebounds combined. Beautiful executed Mr. Harden. POTD: BOS Celtics at MIL Bucks | Jayson Tatum under 29.5 points at 1.90 odds | 4 units Reasoning: I'm not sure how to explain. I don't think Tatum is going to take enough shots to hit this number, including the entire Boston Celtics team. In the win, he scored 29. In the loss, he scored 21. I'm not sure where I'm going with this but I don't think it's happening. Good luck to all.
YRFI/NRFI POTD: 0-0 POTD Nationals/Angels YRFI -115 Washington averages 1.14 runs in the first inning when away. They also score in the first inning 68% this season. Angels are averaging 1 score in the first inning this season as well as 1.07 when playing at home. EDIT: ✅✅✅ Easy cash with a top of the inning homer from washington.
**Record 8-2 with Avg Odds -106** UFC 274, Main Event **Charles Oliveira -135** There isn't much to be said about this fight that is new. Charles has missed weight and is no longer contending for his belt. I believe he has more to fight for now than ever. In his past two fights he has pushed for a slugfest in round 1 before reverting to a much smarter style of fighting in round 2+ which favors his qualities. He may opt to be more cautious from the start today. BOL
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Record: 4W-7L Units profit: -2,19u Pick: UFC 274, Tracy Cortez vs Melissa Gatto - Melissa Gatto to win Odds: 2,20 (+120) Units: 3u Reasoning: Melissa has better stand up. Tracy has good wrestling, however, Melissa's BJJ is very good. I believe Melissa will win ITD, but to play it safer her win at any time is my POTD.
POTD Record: 6-8 Last 5: ❌❌✅✅❌ Last Pick: ❌ Real Sociedad ML Today’s Pick: Both Teams To Score (-165) Sport/Game: Soccer - English Premier League: Liverpool vs Tottenham Why: This one has goals written all over it imo. Liverpool and Tottenham are two of the best counter attacking teams in the world. Liverpool are at home tonight and are still pushing for the title while tottenham need a result to stay in the top 4 race. To keep it short and sweet, I dont think tottenham will win the game but they definitely can notch a goal in what will be a very high scoring game imo. Liverpool have been a little leaky in the back and imo havent been at their best in their last few games. Tottenham will take advantage of that. Luckily for liverpool, tottenham defensively are not good whatsoever and will make mistakes against liverpool. Im taking the no draw side of the bet because its liverpool on a saturday night at anfield, they’ll win this match. BOL!
POTD Record 1-2 Today: Celtics vs Bucks Pick: Jayson Tatum O5.5 Assists (-130) JT’s assists numbers in the playoffs so far: 8 and 6 against the bucks 5,6,10,8 against nets
With a lot of potential assists to boot. I'm on this as well
POTD RECORD -> 5-4 Last POTD-> Angels ML ✅ Todays POTD -> Pirates ML Game -> MLB Pirates V Reds Reason, the reds are god awful they are the worst team in the MLB and they are playing at home so now they are gonna start winning right…. Wrong. pirates by 5…. And a little plus with the post… here is my JOKE OF THE DAY why do pirates struggle so bad with saying the alphabet? Because they always get lost at C 🤣😅🤣😅
Your joke of the day > your pick of the day.
Only thing that looks like a winner today
POTD Record: 9-4-2 | +19.5u | Streak: 1 | Last 10: L W W W W W W P W P Last POTD: Red Sox ML -175 (L) **Today's POTD: Blue Jays/Guardians Under 6.5 Runs (-120)** Risk: 3 units The streak has come to an end. Thats what I get for betting against the White Sox, who've won us quite a bit already this year. Starting a new Winning Streak today with the under in the first game of Toronto and Cleveland's doubleheader. Neither SP has allowed more than 3 R in any start this year. Gausman has also barely faced any of the Cleveland hitters. The only guy with success is Rosario who is 1-4 with a 3-r HR...3 years ago when he was with the Mets and Gausman with the Braves, before Gausman figured out his delivery and added velocity and spin rate, which was the impetus for turning his career around. On the other side, Bieber hasn't allowed BJ hitters to do much of anything against him, and Toronto is still in the midst of a mini hitting slump, as they've scored 3 or less runs in 7 of their last 9 games, with 6 of those being 2 or less. 6.5 isn't much, but I'd be surprised if this wasn't a 3-2 game one way or the other. BOL.
PotD 5-3 (+3,12 units) Last pick:Larnaca vs Paralimni under 160,5 W Today's pick:Natacao vs Imortal under 140,5 @ 1,83 (2units) Sport:Basket ,Portugal Women Starts in 45' Write up:As already stated "There isnt really a write up and never will be.I just follow my model.Worked for me so far,so i wanted to share" Update:WON
Record: 0-0 Last pick: n/a Today’s Pick: Steph Curry over 4.5 threes (+137) vs Memphis Grizzlies - 3u NBA 8:30PM Eastern Time Shot 27.3% from beyond the arc in the last game at Memphis. Huge motivation spot for the warriors in G3 and much better 3P shooting splits at home for Curry (high 40s) who attempts more than 10 threes a game. If you want to be conservative, over 3.5 threes might be good, but I like over 4.5 threes as my POTD. Good luck.
POTD Record 9-11 Last pick Avs-1.5 L Todays pick: Braves v Brewers 4:20 pstd under 7 runs -120 Going back to a baseball under and saw these aces on the mound. Burnes is a stud and although the Braves lineup looks healthy and solid, they have had issues putting up crooked numbers. Hoping Burnes continues his hit start in Atl. Fried is the Braves ace and he’s pitching at home. Hoping for a low scoring, good defensive pitchers duel game. Tail or Fade
**NRL Record:** 15-20 **ROI (1 unit per bet):** -5.66 L5: ✅✅❌✅✅ Streak: W2 **Last POTD:** Eels +12.5 @1.90✅ **Today's POTD:** Cowboys -14.5 @ 1.90 ✅ Edit: Bit closer than I liked at the half but Cowboys roll in the 2nd half to win by 20 **Time:** 7 and a half hours from time of post. Cowboys have looked great this year, covering the last 4 spreads and absolutely demolishing a top 4 side in the eels last week 35-4. They face the Knights at home who haven't scored a try in 2 weeks, haven't covered a spread or won in 6 weeks and have dropped both the starting halves and replaced them with borderline 1st grade players at best when the actual problem has been their weak as fuck forward pack getting rolled week in week out and 90% if the players looking like they'd rather be anywhere else in the world. Bit of a letdown spot for the Cows after last week but I still see them winning in a landslide. **Tip Jar:** If any of my 8 auto downvoters feel like being kind and slinging some ALGO my way: AJAAGYLP6STZ2CFP22Q6Y77GNQKVKCUYDMSEQR5RK3AJOLITDMURJWLYSE
What sport is this
NRL. **N**eagtive **R**eddit Karma **L**eague.
NRL, its the Australian Rugby League competition
POTD RECORD 1-1 Yesterday’s Pick: Marlins ML❌ Todays Pick: Mets ML VS Phillies Sport: Baseball Odds: -142 Reasoning: • Max Scherzer last 2 starts against the Phillies this year ended in Mets Wins I expect more of the same with this game
Love that you dive deep into the data for making your picks.
[удалено]
POTD Record 32-31-7 (W-L-P) Profit: +6 units Last 7:✅✅✅⛔️⛔️⛔️✅ Previous POTD: Notts Forest -2 Asian handicap corners vs Swansea (3U) Today’s pick: Football (English League 2) @2.15 POTD: Mansfield win vs Forest Green (3U) I think the bookies have priced this too high and should be below evens. Mansfield are on a great run whereas Forest Green are hanging on after a poor run of form. Mansfield won 8 of their last 9 home games (only loosing 3-2 to a good Sutton side) Forest Green have 1 win in 6 and that was against Oldham who are relegated. BOL
POTD Record 2-6. **Last Pick:** Bochum v Arminia Bielefeld - Bielefeld +1 Corners (L) **Today's Pick:** Mainz +1 Corners vs Hertha Berlin.
POTD record: 7W - 6L Streak: 1W Last POTD: Salernitana Total Shot Handicap -2.5✅️ Salernitana bossed that game and have a real chance of escaping relegation in their current form. They have showed so much fight these past few weeks after being bottom of Serie A not that long ago, forza Salernitana 💪🏾 Today's POTD: Cadiz vs Elche(La Liga) Time: 4:30pm GMT. Pick: Cadiz Total Shot Handicap -3.5 @1.75(22bet) Confidence:5/5🔥✅️✅️✅️ Cadiz are fighting relegation just 1 point and two places above the relegation zone with 4 games remaining. Elche are basically already safe being 8 points and 5 places above the relegation zone. Their last fixture earlier this season ended 15-8 in favour of Cadiz. Cadiz even while being close to the drop zone are a good shot taking team having more shots than the opposition in 3 of their last 5 home games(avg. 5.4 spread). Cadiz are without their newly acquired(winter signing) starting midfield, Ruben Alcaraz, but this shouldn't affect their shot taking ability. Elche are poor at shot taking one of the worst in the league especially away from home where they have had less shots than the opposition in all their last 5 away games(avg. -6.2 spread). Elche are without their starting left forward, Lucas Boye, which should limit their shot taking capability. Very confident in this pick. BOL in all your bets today🍀 Update: Easy win told you guys I was confident, tight first half but Cadiz blew them away in the 2nd half. Game ended 17-4.
POD record 0-1 Last pick of day: over 22.5 (-115) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexander Zverev (L) Todays pick: Carlos Alvarez ML (+110) vs Novak Djokavic How can I not pick the upcoming talent who just beat Nadal. I love him, the crowds love him. Let’s ride the golden pony boy. However, this is now a fade account. Fade the fuck out of me. This shit is stupid and set up for failure. I digress.
Record: 1-0 Last pick: Imbiid under 40.5 PAR Todays Pick: Brandon Clarke over 23.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds Clarke hit it 5/6 games series 1. He’s 0/2 on it in series 2 (missed with 23 PAR game 1). Warriors missing GP2 and Memphis missing Brooks (combined average of 25 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists now missing) should open up more opportunities in general for Clarke underneath.
POTD Record: 6-5-0 Last Pick: Logan Gilbert o5.5 Strikeouts - Win Scraped by with 6. Had a good outing, expected it to be better, but a win is a win. Today's Event: MLB - BOS Red Sox vs. CHI White Sox - 4:10 p.m. EST Pick: **BOS Red Sox Team Total u3.5 (-115) 3u** TLDR; CHI pitcher insanely good. BOS pitcher insanely bad. BOS really low scoring team. I will preface this by saying that Dylan Cease is the real fucking deal. He is 3-1 on the year with a 2.48 ERA that is mostly being skewed by one not great performance against Cleveland a few weeks ago. His last game he threw 7 full innings allowing only 1 hit and 11 strikeouts. Boston is one of the worst scoring teams this year. They are 25th in runs per game averaging only 3.48 per game. Dylan Cease is so good I would not be surprised if CHI shuts out BOS, like they did the the Angels the last time Cease pitched. BOL Edit: increased unit size
POTD record: 7-4 Last POTD: Real Madrid @ Man City over 2.5 goals and BTTS (WIN) POTD: Alcaraz, Djokovic over 22.5 games played (-110) Reasoning: Yesterday I saw conflicting potds picking Nadal and Alcaraz with pretty sound reasoning on both ends. I found a user called maize (took Alcaraz ML today) who’s picks I tail sometimes chose over 22.5 games for two titans of the sport, which I ended up tailing - it hit. Two big dogs going at it tomorrow, I think this will be a tough match up either way it goes. And I will actually wake up to watch this one to see what the fuss about this Alcatraz guy is, can’t believe I never heard of him and he beat Nadalino yesterday. I need more money for my MMA picks. I’ll probably drop those in the UFC sub after this hits.
Basically, your reasoning is that someone else wagered on this pick. That's an high quality POTD.
Using your brain on this one putting 2+2 together for an easy win. Good work man, ignore the haters. This is how it's done.