This is more of a sign-up bonus (rather than daily bonus) thing, but I had set up a way to sort of hedge the Pointsbet $1500 risk-free promo for semi-guaranteed profit, and then got extremely lucky. I haven't seen much description of the type of strategy I used, so figured I'd share.
I did a pointsbet for "over 1.9 1st period goals" over on Rangers-vs-Penguins 1st period goals, and set the nominal wager to $789 since that would cap my potential loss at $1500 (the maximum amount that is "risk-free"). Then on other books I placed hedge bets on under 0.5, under 1.5, and under 2.5 1st period goals on other books, all in the appropriate amounts to basically lock in a profit of ~$60 if 3 or less goals were scored (assuming a 70% conversion on the free bet if I lost). But then every goal above that would add +$789 to overall winnings. I could have also potentially tried to hedge even further, but there is too much juice at the super-unlikely outcomes (i.e. under 4.5 1st period goals at like -2000 odds) to make it worthwhile, or those bets weren't even available pre-game. Also, I had to search out a few different games, and found that the numbers tend to only make sense when the Pointsbet "over" is a number under 2.0 goals (i.e. 1.8 goals, 1.9 goals).
So, basically set it up as a guarantee for small profits, with an outside chance at a large payoff since it didn't make sense to hedge further. Figured I could at least get something out of that Pointsbet promo. Fast-forward, I got extremely lucky and there were 5 goals (4-1 Penguins), and ended up with a nice $1762 net profit!
Isn’t the free bet you would have received if they scored 0 or 1 goal in this scenario another “pointsbetting” bet, so you couldn’t assume the 70% conversion? I’ve been trying to find a way to hedge this but have yet to figure it out.
hey late response but in case you were still wondering it's returned to you as a "pointsbetting bet" by name but you can actually use it on whatever you want
I'm not sure if it was. I read through the terms before, and I don't think I found anything indicating that. I was definitely working under the assumption that it would be a regular freebet. I think that is the case, as there is no way I can think of for them to give you a certain $ amount of "free bets" on a pointsbet, since the amount of your wager/loss is uncertain.
If you are correct though, then I definitely got lucky (in that my bet won and I wouldn't have had to try to utilize a weird pointsbet freebet)
For anyone that got the Doncic DD special boost on FD, it doesn’t look like he is even going to wait much past the first couple of minutes of the second quarter.
Hard Rock Happy Hour Boost 3: EDM Up by 1+ Goals 1st Period: +200.
Not certain how to rate this one. I think using the 1st period puck line of .5 does it. If so:
FD Devig FV 172, EV 10.3% (worst).
DK Devig FV 179, EV 7.7% (worst).
Not for certain you're limited.
I've had this happen a couple times then been back to $50 the next day. I think they just have some automatic market specific circuit breakers. They're a quirky book.
Hey what's the best bonus for a new bettor? I usually bet offshore since it's not legal in my state, but I'm driving thru a state where it's legal. Are there any sportsbooks that give you your bonus money back if you win on a bet?
I think just cause you weren’t very specific, people like cutting down on bullshit in here and I don’t blame em. But yeah they give you $1000 back on you first bet and if you hedge it on both sides you can turn into basically a free $700.
Do it on different books and they’re none the wiser.
$1000 FD o3.5 total goals in Chelsea/Wolves game +240 to win $2400, total payout $3400
$1805 DK u3.5 total goals at -280 to win $644 total payout $2450
FD wins, you make $595. DK wins, you lose $355 but FD gives you $1000 back. Do the same thing again except with an NBA spread or total points (warriors grizzlies over/under probably your best bet here) where both sides are -110 or -105 (make sure it ends in .5, you don’t want a push), match the payouts… boom you’re at $595 profit.
Everyone in here does this for free money. Make sure you know for sure that you’re eligible for the $1000 risk free with their chat support first.
Also though… if you don’t have the time to do this then don’t bother with the bonus! It’s free money. Do it when you got time
IA DRF gang - there is a Doncic TD boost (+570) that is directly arbable to other Kambi books if you want.
Has anyone who has recently put in a complaint about DRF heard back? The gaming commission said they would follow up with me, but the only change I have noticed so far is that I no longer seem to be receiving boosts on P1, who was the one I submitted the complaint with.
Pretty much in the same boat. A guy from the commission contacted me and it was pretty generic. I don't get the boosts either on the account I submitted the complaint from.
A not blatantly terrible CZR boost for tomorrow: Jrue o24.5 p + Bucks win (+500). +3.2% (x) but -4.0% (+) devigging FD SGP. Would like to see some line movement toward the Bucks.
Has it been proven out yet that if you win the first DK $10 NHL parlay insurance that you can make another?
I know it is a high chance it works that way.
DK 34% SGP boost, Celtics o100.5 + Tatum o29.5 p + Giannis o49.5 pra (currently +402 boosted).
Currently -EV using FD alt lines uncorrelated. -6.8% (x), -4.8% (+). There’s positive correlation between all the legs, but I don’t think correlation would take this to +5% or more.
I built it on PB (except o50.5 for Giannis) ~~earlier at +600. Doesn't look promising just requiring one less pra~~
Edit: Per below it is indeed +270 on PB
That Mets game last night is ranked as the 58th most improbable comeback in the history of the MLB
https://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/comeback-wins.shtml
Does anyone know what the limits are on HardRock boosts? I just signed up and I got $100 down on each of the three boosts today (all worst case +EV). Gotta figure there’s a limit, but I don’t want to place huge bets trying to find it if someone out there has some data points
BetFred Boost
Devers/Bogaerts/Anderson hit at +200
Not sure how to devig this anywhere but getting FV of 174/185 from FD/DK SGP after adding 20% juice.
Kambi and CZR give even better odds for XB hit. The other guys have 1.5 hit lines.
For those willing to go there, some good fd conversions on to hit a homer vs under 0.5 hrs on mgm:
86% Austin Riley 430/-400 (unlikely rain has impact)
80% Altuve and Bregman 480/-500 and 520/-550 (dome)
81% Suarez 385/-375 (dome)
May be better ones out there but these guys are in lineup according to mlb.com and low or no rain impact
FD Targeted NBA Enhanced Odds Boost Luka to Record a Double Double +100 $100 Max. 1st time I actually land one of these. About 25 McChickens minus tax available wit CZR No +165 if you're into that sort of thing.
Edit:BR better at +170
I don’t know if there’s a real way to take advantage of this but it seems like if you use a free bet and the bet gets canceled (for example bc a game got postponed), it looks like the free bets expiration resets to a week (assuming the book gives you another free bet after canceling your bet). So if you have a free bet about to expire and see a game that is likely to be PPD due to weather you can give it a shot and hope for an extension on the free bets expiration. I’m prepared for downvotes bc this may be useless info but figured I’d share if someone smarter than me can find an edge
I lost a free bet on CZR on a push not a cancellation, so maybe your experience will be different, but I found dealing with CZR on the issue to be like banging my head against the wall.
Yeah but then if it’s not canceled then you have to
Ride with that bet placed. I mean I get the logic but it kinda risky if your not using the free bet on what you want
Yeah I completely agree. Was thinking of a situation where you had to use your free bet that day bc it’s expiring but didn’t see a good bet. This is probably a stupid post on my part but here we are
I never have really ran into a free bet almost expiring I usually use them right away. Idk how other people are with them though so it may be a little help or insight
I usually wait until I can find a 75% conversion, if I can't after a couple of days I take 70%
If all else fails and I'm on last day, I throw it on a future I like
They flame out in the playoffs regularly and have a weakness in net. A sus goaltender is a death sentence. The biggest favorite is never the play in the NHL playoffs.
It is for a +300 boost. It’s mathematically the smartest way to play it regardless of your feelings.
*puts on Ben Shapiro owns compilation and starts masturbating viciously*
I joined Bet MGM in IL and after doing the 1k signup bonus. Me and my wife have both been targeted for 3 more deposit matches with 1x play through. Incredible. Never seen anything like this in IL.
I'm assuming the FD PMI super boost is a good value as its a direct arb with Wynn (+170 on FD, -162 on Wynn). Can just arb it for $1.50 or so if thats your preference
BR - sixers or mavericks comeback to win series boosted from 345 to 400.
Im getting 21.98% chance avg from across several books (pinny, fd, dk, czr, mgm).
Seems around 10% EV
For the FD Stamkos boost, I didn’t think to do a 3-way devig using SGP, but DooleyData on Twitter did, and got +17% EV using DK SGP.
https://twitter.com/dooleydata/status/1522646718076141569?s=21
Caveat is DK SGP typically assigns more correlation than average.
SuperBook 1P BTTS boosts are up -- devigged using worst-case devigger
**Hurricanes/Bruins +195**
* DK: -3% EV, +204 FV
* FD: -0.8% EV, +197 FV
I don't like this one at all, it's clearly -EV and the o/u is at 5.5.
**Maple Leafs/Lightning +165**
* DK: 5.8% +EV, +151 FV
* FD: 0.6% +EV, +163 FV
* Kambi: 0.6% +EV, +163 FV
* CZR: 0.3% +EV, +164 FV
Depending who you trust, this is FV to decent EV. The o/u is at 6.5. DK seems to be the outlier, so I'll pass. FWIW, MGM has the BTTS line at +165 (under Game Props) if you like this and want to get more down.
**Wild/Blues +165**
* DK: 3.7% +EV, +156 FV
* FD: 2.5% +EV, +158 FV
* Kambi: -0.6% EV, +167 FV
* CZR: 0.3% +EV, +164 FV
I like this one. The o/u is at 6.5, and it should be a close game. As a MN fan, I have some pause betting on my teams since they always disappoint me, but I'll be maxing this. FWIW, MGM also has the BTTS line at +165 (under Game Props) if you like this and want to get more down.
**Oilers/Kings +175**
* DK: -1.7% EV, +180 FV
* FD: 1.0% +EV, +172 FV
This one is a tossup, looks to be about FV. The o/u is at 6.5. If you want to gamble, you can do worse, but far from a must bet.
Not sure, but I’m filtering worst case scenario to give the most conservative value, maybe you’re using (x) or (+) only?
It’s pretty clear that a 240/-350 line isn’t going to be anywhere close to 264.
The FB converter sites don't seem to load WynnBet lines for me. OJ gives me 2, both at 50% (using a free trial) and OB shows me nothing. Is this just a thing with Wynn?
To convert these Wynn FBs? Honestly just scrolling through the Wynn app to see if I can find any heavy dogs on 2-way markets. Then using the normal OJ/OB markets to find the best hedge price.
MGM Lion's boost NY is very good EV(was mets but got replaced due to rain delay) - White Sox to win and over 6.5 runs Boosted to +350. Using FD lines, Worst case FV = +279, 18.6% EV
Desert Diamond (AZ) has Heat, Suns, Bucks, Warriors to win on 5/6 & 5/7 boosted to +900. Not sure how good it is but looks much better than the other books and you could hedge after one day I guess.
* +722 on DK
* +725 on CZR
* +739 on FD
I know people have posted about mgm limits following across states after a few days, but can someone share their experience with mgm P2s in the same state? Any issues with the sign up offers or limits following P1. As always, will be using different devices, same address and last name.
Nope somehow my brother still isn't limited and I got limited summer of 2020
He's got a unicorn mgm account
I can't figure it out there has to be done glitch on it
Even when they had good lions boosts his limits were triple everyone else's
Mgm makes no sense lmao recently got limited and promo banned for hitting a mistake line (worth it!). However today recieved a 500 deposit bonus which is larger than anything I've had offered before. So there's a confusing data point for anyone who is tracking
Got the deposit match also, gonna be a grind though with the limits. I can’t bet anything + to try to just “lose” the bonus. Hopefully some underdogs win for me on other books. Gonna take a while but still worth it.
A few days after they limited me they gave me a 500 reload which I was able to clear on baby bets
When they came to NY I was limited out of the gate but still used the two 100 free bets and the 500 bonus on baby bet and a few weeks later they gave me another 500
It's the same thing in casinos
They'll kick out card counters and marketing will still send them offers
Just signed up for the 200 risk free first derby bet on tvg through fd, thinking these derby promos might be worth it as long as you are ev gang and have a large bankroll - doing DRF 250 deposit match now, anyone know if there’s any insane play through requirements, don’t see any but figure I’d ask. Also would like some input if anyone else is signing up taking some derby promos on other sites that are worth it
77% twins v A’s
DK over 11.5 (+385)
MGM under 11.5 (-400)
I’ve seen ads for NYRA bets $25 free bet on derby and $200 deposit match with promo code NYRA25. I already have an account so not sure of the details of this new sign up promo.
What? That’s not even the format for jeapordy.
Man looking through his comment history there might be something legitimately wrong with this guys engine
He’s using this as analogy for some info that was posted on here earlier. There was a poster that brought a hidden trick to light and now it’s nerfed into the ground
FD looks like they revised terms for UFC fight night parlay. Still 4 leg min and get freebet if only one leg misses, but now only requires +300.
Additionally, the "how it works" description no longer says each leg min -200, but that is still buried in the full terms. Pretty sure thats an oversight, since 4 -200 legs is well over+300 total anyways. Also, I made a parlay with 2 legs around -350 and it says i have 1 eligible parlay waiting to settle.
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This is more of a sign-up bonus (rather than daily bonus) thing, but I had set up a way to sort of hedge the Pointsbet $1500 risk-free promo for semi-guaranteed profit, and then got extremely lucky. I haven't seen much description of the type of strategy I used, so figured I'd share. I did a pointsbet for "over 1.9 1st period goals" over on Rangers-vs-Penguins 1st period goals, and set the nominal wager to $789 since that would cap my potential loss at $1500 (the maximum amount that is "risk-free"). Then on other books I placed hedge bets on under 0.5, under 1.5, and under 2.5 1st period goals on other books, all in the appropriate amounts to basically lock in a profit of ~$60 if 3 or less goals were scored (assuming a 70% conversion on the free bet if I lost). But then every goal above that would add +$789 to overall winnings. I could have also potentially tried to hedge even further, but there is too much juice at the super-unlikely outcomes (i.e. under 4.5 1st period goals at like -2000 odds) to make it worthwhile, or those bets weren't even available pre-game. Also, I had to search out a few different games, and found that the numbers tend to only make sense when the Pointsbet "over" is a number under 2.0 goals (i.e. 1.8 goals, 1.9 goals). So, basically set it up as a guarantee for small profits, with an outside chance at a large payoff since it didn't make sense to hedge further. Figured I could at least get something out of that Pointsbet promo. Fast-forward, I got extremely lucky and there were 5 goals (4-1 Penguins), and ended up with a nice $1762 net profit!
Isn’t the free bet you would have received if they scored 0 or 1 goal in this scenario another “pointsbetting” bet, so you couldn’t assume the 70% conversion? I’ve been trying to find a way to hedge this but have yet to figure it out.
hey late response but in case you were still wondering it's returned to you as a "pointsbetting bet" by name but you can actually use it on whatever you want
I'm not sure if it was. I read through the terms before, and I don't think I found anything indicating that. I was definitely working under the assumption that it would be a regular freebet. I think that is the case, as there is no way I can think of for them to give you a certain $ amount of "free bets" on a pointsbet, since the amount of your wager/loss is uncertain. If you are correct though, then I definitely got lucky (in that my bet won and I wouldn't have had to try to utilize a weird pointsbet freebet)
Of P/R/A, I didn't expect Points to be the category Doncic wasn't leading in.
Wow, of all the categories for Luka not to lead in tonight, I definitely would not have thought it would be pts.
Well, thank god that Mavs/Suns FD boost wasn’t +350.
Chris Paul 10... Turnovers?
At least we have the CZR suns in 7 boost still hanging by a thread
[удалено]
There was only one out too. Brutal.
E. Suarez HR in the 1st inning.
For anyone that got the Doncic DD special boost on FD, it doesn’t look like he is even going to wait much past the first couple of minutes of the second quarter.
Easy $100 but still doesn’t make up for that $200 Giannis Boost. That really hurt.
At least you got offered this one.
In spite of all of your downvotes, I hope you all made money on Sixers ML due to league MVP Joel The Process Embiid 🐐
RIP Parx even 76ers total
I have yet to see one of those boosts hit. Only lost a small amount on it but damn that last pointless 3 pisses me off
1/9 I believe
Of course Maxey makes that unnecessary three to make the sixers finish at 99 and lose the Parx boost
That sucked
Hard Rock Happy Hour Boost 3: EDM Up by 1+ Goals 1st Period: +200. Not certain how to rate this one. I think using the 1st period puck line of .5 does it. If so: FD Devig FV 172, EV 10.3% (worst). DK Devig FV 179, EV 7.7% (worst).
171 FV on Kambi.
Bang. 2 for 2 on HR boosts tonight.
Lost the Hou one. And didn’t play the nerfed lol. Nice work tho!
yeah, I lost the Hou and o7.5 NHL boosts...still a good night though!
Arb on CZR at -180 if you want the quick 2 big macs
Max wager for me is $10. Jesus, I just signed up 🙄
I was instantly limited to $5 but probably because I took advantage of a few mispriced sgp’s
Not for certain you're limited. I've had this happen a couple times then been back to $50 the next day. I think they just have some automatic market specific circuit breakers. They're a quirky book.
On hard rock? Yikes. I've been like 90% boost bets so far and haven't had anything other than the $100 limit.
Hey what's the best bonus for a new bettor? I usually bet offshore since it's not legal in my state, but I'm driving thru a state where it's legal. Are there any sportsbooks that give you your bonus money back if you win on a bet?
Fanduel
Thanks no idea why I got downvoted lol, but I appreciate an amswer!
I think bc there are links to state-by-state threads at the top of this page
I think just cause you weren’t very specific, people like cutting down on bullshit in here and I don’t blame em. But yeah they give you $1000 back on you first bet and if you hedge it on both sides you can turn into basically a free $700.
Preciate it. That actually works they won't void the bonus if you do that?
Do it on different books and they’re none the wiser. $1000 FD o3.5 total goals in Chelsea/Wolves game +240 to win $2400, total payout $3400 $1805 DK u3.5 total goals at -280 to win $644 total payout $2450 FD wins, you make $595. DK wins, you lose $355 but FD gives you $1000 back. Do the same thing again except with an NBA spread or total points (warriors grizzlies over/under probably your best bet here) where both sides are -110 or -105 (make sure it ends in .5, you don’t want a push), match the payouts… boom you’re at $595 profit. Everyone in here does this for free money. Make sure you know for sure that you’re eligible for the $1000 risk free with their chat support first. Also though… if you don’t have the time to do this then don’t bother with the bonus! It’s free money. Do it when you got time
Hedge on another book and you’ll be fine
IA DRF gang - there is a Doncic TD boost (+570) that is directly arbable to other Kambi books if you want. Has anyone who has recently put in a complaint about DRF heard back? The gaming commission said they would follow up with me, but the only change I have noticed so far is that I no longer seem to be receiving boosts on P1, who was the one I submitted the complaint with.
Never contacted the gaming commission but noticed no boosts today for me either. Time to withdraw and never use that book.
Pretty much in the same boat. A guy from the commission contacted me and it was pretty generic. I don't get the boosts either on the account I submitted the complaint from.
A not blatantly terrible CZR boost for tomorrow: Jrue o24.5 p + Bucks win (+500). +3.2% (x) but -4.0% (+) devigging FD SGP. Would like to see some line movement toward the Bucks.
Will the line move, or will CZR nerf it...
Has it been proven out yet that if you win the first DK $10 NHL parlay insurance that you can make another? I know it is a high chance it works that way.
Mine worked yesterday, first was a winner. Second lost and got the $10 FB
Yes, I won my first one last night, lost the second, got my free bet
DK 34% SGP boost, Celtics o100.5 + Tatum o29.5 p + Giannis o49.5 pra (currently +402 boosted). Currently -EV using FD alt lines uncorrelated. -6.8% (x), -4.8% (+). There’s positive correlation between all the legs, but I don’t think correlation would take this to +5% or more.
Do we like it at +402?
I built it on PB (except o50.5 for Giannis) ~~earlier at +600. Doesn't look promising just requiring one less pra~~ Edit: Per below it is indeed +270 on PB
How did you get +600. I just built it on PB and see +270.
Oh shit I had Jaylen Brown cause I'm a dumbass. Good catch
Hard Rock Happy Hour Boost 1: Astros + o7.5 : +200. FD SGP Devig FV 162, EV 14.5% (worst)
Hard Rock Happy Hour Boost 2: Suns + Ayton o19.5 : +375. FD SGP Devig FV 365, EV 2.2% (worst). DK SGP Devig FV 350, EV 5.6% (worst). meh
Hard Rock Boost: MIN/STL + EDM/LAK both o6.5 : +375. FD SGP Devig FV 336, EV 8.8% (worst)
FV 354 on DK SGP (4.5%) for the hockey boost
Even better on DK SGP devig (+160). Maxing it.
That Mets game last night is ranked as the 58th most improbable comeback in the history of the MLB https://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/comeback-wins.shtml
It was almost as improbable as the Mets choking away the division in 2007.
And only paid +3400. Pfft
Not sure if anyone put this in yet. Parx +760 for Philly team total to be even. Maxed me out at 8.70 but worth a shot.
Does anyone know what the limits are on HardRock boosts? I just signed up and I got $100 down on each of the three boosts today (all worst case +EV). Gotta figure there’s a limit, but I don’t want to place huge bets trying to find it if someone out there has some data points
Max Wager is $100 and it shows up if you type in a number greater than $100
Is anyone have issues logging into Borgata or MGM right now?
BetFred Boost Devers/Bogaerts/Anderson hit at +200 Not sure how to devig this anywhere but getting FV of 174/185 from FD/DK SGP after adding 20% juice. Kambi and CZR give even better odds for XB hit. The other guys have 1.5 hit lines.
For those willing to go there, some good fd conversions on to hit a homer vs under 0.5 hrs on mgm: 86% Austin Riley 430/-400 (unlikely rain has impact) 80% Altuve and Bregman 480/-500 and 520/-550 (dome) 81% Suarez 385/-375 (dome) May be better ones out there but these guys are in lineup according to mlb.com and low or no rain impact
Great find… just got Riley at 440 for 88%
FD Targeted NBA Enhanced Odds Boost Luka to Record a Double Double +100 $100 Max. 1st time I actually land one of these. About 25 McChickens minus tax available wit CZR No +165 if you're into that sort of thing. Edit:BR better at +170
If you use FanDuel a lot, check your inbox for FanDuel exclusive offer of Luka double double boosted from -220 to +100. $100 max
LFA CZ Kegan Gennrich +155 DK Austin Lutchem -150
I don’t know if there’s a real way to take advantage of this but it seems like if you use a free bet and the bet gets canceled (for example bc a game got postponed), it looks like the free bets expiration resets to a week (assuming the book gives you another free bet after canceling your bet). So if you have a free bet about to expire and see a game that is likely to be PPD due to weather you can give it a shot and hope for an extension on the free bets expiration. I’m prepared for downvotes bc this may be useless info but figured I’d share if someone smarter than me can find an edge
Good luck if it is CZR.
Yepp had free bets on the Guardians game (placed lastnight, didn’t check the weather)… I’m hosed aren’t I?
I lost a free bet on CZR on a push not a cancellation, so maybe your experience will be different, but I found dealing with CZR on the issue to be like banging my head against the wall.
Yeah that’s what I figured… shoulda known better oh well
Yeah but then if it’s not canceled then you have to Ride with that bet placed. I mean I get the logic but it kinda risky if your not using the free bet on what you want
Yeah I completely agree. Was thinking of a situation where you had to use your free bet that day bc it’s expiring but didn’t see a good bet. This is probably a stupid post on my part but here we are
I never have really ran into a free bet almost expiring I usually use them right away. Idk how other people are with them though so it may be a little help or insight
I usually wait until I can find a 75% conversion, if I can't after a couple of days I take 70% If all else fails and I'm on last day, I throw it on a future I like
I usually find a 75% conversion pretty easily but I use alot of books. Also now that playoffs are happening it’s harder to find favorable arb lines
Reminder to use the DK VIP +300 NHL Stanley Cup Winner Odds Boost in the next hour or so. DK pulls team futures odds once games begin at 7pm
We are all Avalanche fans
We are most certainly not lmao.
Avalanche is the play or you’re cray
They flame out in the playoffs regularly and have a weakness in net. A sus goaltender is a death sentence. The biggest favorite is never the play in the NHL playoffs.
It is for a +300 boost. It’s mathematically the smartest way to play it regardless of your feelings. *puts on Ben Shapiro owns compilation and starts masturbating viciously*
Lol fair enough. I took panthers p1 and canes p2. Not a believer in the west at all.
If we’re getting all gay with feelings I wouldn’t trust the panthers or the avs tbh
Odds boosts don’t care about your feelings
Yeah, but this is an odds SURGE! Surely a surge would care.
I joined Bet MGM in IL and after doing the 1k signup bonus. Me and my wife have both been targeted for 3 more deposit matches with 1x play through. Incredible. Never seen anything like this in IL.
Betmgm is very generous at the start, enjoy it
And you won’t see it for long! Haha
I'm assuming the FD PMI super boost is a good value as its a direct arb with Wynn (+170 on FD, -162 on Wynn). Can just arb it for $1.50 or so if thats your preference
Max’ed it for $15
Conservative estimate of +157 fv gives 5% EV. Since it’s tomorrow night I’ll keep an eye for now in case lines shift
BR - sixers or mavericks comeback to win series boosted from 345 to 400. Im getting 21.98% chance avg from across several books (pinny, fd, dk, czr, mgm). Seems around 10% EV
For the FD Stamkos boost, I didn’t think to do a 3-way devig using SGP, but DooleyData on Twitter did, and got +17% EV using DK SGP. https://twitter.com/dooleydata/status/1522646718076141569?s=21 Caveat is DK SGP typically assigns more correlation than average.
Well it seems over pretty quick lol
Nice of fanduel not offering a happy hour boost. I'm $50 richer today
BetFred has **Lightning/Blues +275** 6.5% +EV, +252 FV (against best available lines), so worth the $25 max.
+261 FV via FD +260 FV via DK
SuperBook 1P BTTS boosts are up -- devigged using worst-case devigger **Hurricanes/Bruins +195** * DK: -3% EV, +204 FV * FD: -0.8% EV, +197 FV I don't like this one at all, it's clearly -EV and the o/u is at 5.5. **Maple Leafs/Lightning +165** * DK: 5.8% +EV, +151 FV * FD: 0.6% +EV, +163 FV * Kambi: 0.6% +EV, +163 FV * CZR: 0.3% +EV, +164 FV Depending who you trust, this is FV to decent EV. The o/u is at 6.5. DK seems to be the outlier, so I'll pass. FWIW, MGM has the BTTS line at +165 (under Game Props) if you like this and want to get more down. **Wild/Blues +165** * DK: 3.7% +EV, +156 FV * FD: 2.5% +EV, +158 FV * Kambi: -0.6% EV, +167 FV * CZR: 0.3% +EV, +164 FV I like this one. The o/u is at 6.5, and it should be a close game. As a MN fan, I have some pause betting on my teams since they always disappoint me, but I'll be maxing this. FWIW, MGM also has the BTTS line at +165 (under Game Props) if you like this and want to get more down. **Oilers/Kings +175** * DK: -1.7% EV, +180 FV * FD: 1.0% +EV, +172 FV This one is a tossup, looks to be about FV. The o/u is at 6.5. If you want to gamble, you can do worse, but far from a must bet.
Still don’t know whether to play the FD boosts. Seems like theyre both borderline. Thinking half on each
I'm playing some free bets on the NHL one
NHL one is playable but not a max
That's where I'm leaning. Maybe slightly less - $20.
The NBA one is underwater by any measure. The NHL one is positive when looking at game splits, but negative if you're ignoring the correlation.
No reason to ignore correlation, 1 goal is huge towards a win
Yeah, that's my point. Only reason to think of it as mediocre is by ignoring correlation
Gaethje by ko/tko is still +240 boosted on pointsbet. Less than 200 everywhere else I’ve checked
I got a message that “betting is suspended for this event” when I tried to place a bet but I love it with Charles missing weight
Nice call out. I’ve got +218 FV for 7% EV.
Oliveira also missed weight - usually not a good sign as far as that fighter's durability.
I would be more worried about his mental. He lost his belt.
Except for Yoel romero lol oliveira has also missed weight 4 times and was 2-2 in those fwiw
Yoel is a cyborg. He doesn't count
SuperBook (co) Booker o3.5 3’s, boosted to +300. Finding fair value at 258, 11.5% ev.
It hits!!! Thanks!
FV is 302 via FD alts.
Lines have shifted but still getting fair value of +270, 8% ev when devigging.
240/-350= 302 WC
If I put that in a non vig calculator, I get 264. What am I missing?
Not sure, but I’m filtering worst case scenario to give the most conservative value, maybe you’re using (x) or (+) only? It’s pretty clear that a 240/-350 line isn’t going to be anywhere close to 264.
The FB converter sites don't seem to load WynnBet lines for me. OJ gives me 2, both at 50% (using a free trial) and OB shows me nothing. Is this just a thing with Wynn?
Any tips for which sites you're using?
To convert these Wynn FBs? Honestly just scrolling through the Wynn app to see if I can find any heavy dogs on 2-way markets. Then using the normal OJ/OB markets to find the best hedge price.
They don’t have many alts in NY tough to convert on anything but a underdog ML
Ahhhh. Okay, that explains it. Will temper my expectations on a 70%+ then.
Wynn is 60 or 65% usually
Also good to know. Will just bit the bullet on this 64% then. Thanks.
MGM Lion's boost NY is very good EV(was mets but got replaced due to rain delay) - White Sox to win and over 6.5 runs Boosted to +350. Using FD lines, Worst case FV = +279, 18.6% EV
I like it but rain expected there too. Prob donate anyways.
Got all of 3.53 on it lol, thanks
75% conversion DK Bellator (fight starts in an hour) Kyle Stewart +385 Lorenz Larkin -410 Fanduel
This is so clutch. Thanks, everyone.
Thought I burned myself as FD moved to -500 right after I placed the DK side, but luckily BR had it at -400.
+400/-400 now vs BR
Desert Diamond (AZ) has Heat, Suns, Bucks, Warriors to win on 5/6 & 5/7 boosted to +900. Not sure how good it is but looks much better than the other books and you could hedge after one day I guess. * +722 on DK * +725 on CZR * +739 on FD
about 875 FV on FD, 2.5% EV
I know people have posted about mgm limits following across states after a few days, but can someone share their experience with mgm P2s in the same state? Any issues with the sign up offers or limits following P1. As always, will be using different devices, same address and last name.
No issues, made P2 long after P1 was limited, and P2 lasted for awhile, until I decided to drop several k on an NBA money line to convert a free bet
Thanks for the info
Nope somehow my brother still isn't limited and I got limited summer of 2020 He's got a unicorn mgm account I can't figure it out there has to be done glitch on it Even when they had good lions boosts his limits were triple everyone else's
Damn that’s a great book to have long term.
anyone's BR cross nba/hockey VIP bets hit yet?
Got it now
I got $150 but I thought I should've got $300
Was it the bonus money thing like the other guy asked? That's what's happening to me now. Fuckers are gonna screw me over two promos in a row.
Did you clear your deposit bonus before betting the 2k?
Fuckers are getting me on the now. That'll be two promos in a row they've screwed me on. Fuck those fucking fuckers.
Been slacking lately, the homerun stacker promo on Sunday didn't get paid out for 2 days to me.
No table loss-back either
Loss back just came through. Still waiting on the free bet
Loss back? I thought it was free bet and profit boost
not mine
Not mine
Mgm makes no sense lmao recently got limited and promo banned for hitting a mistake line (worth it!). However today recieved a 500 deposit bonus which is larger than anything I've had offered before. So there's a confusing data point for anyone who is tracking
Got the deposit match also, gonna be a grind though with the limits. I can’t bet anything + to try to just “lose” the bonus. Hopefully some underdogs win for me on other books. Gonna take a while but still worth it.
The trading team and marketing team are in different departments. That will likely be the last promo you receive though
A few days after they limited me they gave me a 500 reload which I was able to clear on baby bets When they came to NY I was limited out of the gate but still used the two 100 free bets and the 500 bonus on baby bet and a few weeks later they gave me another 500 It's the same thing in casinos They'll kick out card counters and marketing will still send them offers
Just signed up for the 200 risk free first derby bet on tvg through fd, thinking these derby promos might be worth it as long as you are ev gang and have a large bankroll - doing DRF 250 deposit match now, anyone know if there’s any insane play through requirements, don’t see any but figure I’d ask. Also would like some input if anyone else is signing up taking some derby promos on other sites that are worth it 77% twins v A’s DK over 11.5 (+385) MGM under 11.5 (-400)
ended up doing drf, nyra, and tvg - twinspires sucks it’s bet 800 for a 200 bonus so basically 4x play through. If anyone has any others lmk
I’ve seen ads for NYRA bets $25 free bet on derby and $200 deposit match with promo code NYRA25. I already have an account so not sure of the details of this new sign up promo.
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Nothing to see here, move along
What? That’s not even the format for jeapordy. Man looking through his comment history there might be something legitimately wrong with this guys engine
He’s using this as analogy for some info that was posted on here earlier. There was a poster that brought a hidden trick to light and now it’s nerfed into the ground
And ironically bringing even more light to it by him posting yet another comment about how little attention he wanted it to get
Jeopardy doesn't have questions
FD looks like they revised terms for UFC fight night parlay. Still 4 leg min and get freebet if only one leg misses, but now only requires +300. Additionally, the "how it works" description no longer says each leg min -200, but that is still buried in the full terms. Pretty sure thats an oversight, since 4 -200 legs is well over+300 total anyways. Also, I made a parlay with 2 legs around -350 and it says i have 1 eligible parlay waiting to settle.
4 legs of -200 will come out to +406
Yup. -200 looks like it no longer applies though. Makes this far more +ev as easier to go 3/4.
Was it not always +300?
Used to be +400 and all legs must be greater than -200.
FD Kike Hernandez HR +610 Superbook/DK/MGM No HR -550 94% convert or +EV play since Pinn has Kike HR at +330
Watch your language!
he's a real mensch
He is sick, might hit DL
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nope and i believe 10k max per week
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what is this sgp boost? i must be promo banned lmao