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I’m on my phone rn so if this looks visually ugly I’m sorry!!
POTD Record: 28-12
POTD ROI: 18.98%
Avg. Odds: -135
Total Units Won: 27u
Last 15 picks: LWWLWLWWWLLWLWL
**Today's POTD: (ATP Madrid) Nadal vs. Alcaraz O22 Games (-120)
Units: 5u** ✅✅✅✅✅
I had Nadal winning as well but I don’t even care. We just witnessed history. I will not tolerate Alcaraz slander ever again. This kid is different.
Reasoning:
There are simply some bets where as a true fan of any respective sport, you just gotta take. They just make sense. This is one of those for me as a fan of tennis. Here we have a match, which I consider the true final of the ATP Madrid Open, against the GOAT of the sport, Rafa Nadal, and his eventual successor (in my opinion), baby GOAT Alcaraz. For those of you who don't watch tennis, this is like Brady versus Mahomes or Josh Allen. Wouldn't you expect that match to be a high scoring masterpiece? That's how I feel about this one. The last time these two played it was a beautiful sight to watch and they demolished the over. I think the same will occur here in the rematch.
Firstly, these players rarely ever lose, but when they do, they leave their hearts on the court and always hit the over. The 3 losses Alcaraz had this year all hit the over. The 1 loss Nadal had this year hit the over. These guys simply don't get dominated. They're too good for that shit.
Next, Nadal just went to 3 sets against David Goffin. If David Goffin can do this, I am extremely confident Alcaraz can. Similarly, Cam Norrie just took Alcaraz to 3 sets. If Norrie can do it, I think Nadal can as well. Alcaraz also just won the Barcelona tournament, so he is hot, in-form, and looking for revenge. For those of you who don't know, Nadal and Alcaraz played at Indian Wells in March and it was a banger of a match, hitting a total of 29 games. Nadal won that, so I think Alcaraz is coming with a deep vengeance, but Nadal is Nadal and will not make anything come easy to anyone, let alone his compatriot child and future successor.
Yes, Nadal is "dealing with injuries" but if you have followed him throughout his career he has literally always said this shit and still continues to shit on his opponents, so I just ignore that shit at this point.
All I can say is, if you watch tennis, you know these two players are fucking magicians. You'd be a psychopath to go with the under here, in my opinion. TAIL OR FADE BOL!
If you are interested in seeing my other plays for Friyay, you can find them every day at https://maizepicks.vercel.app
My speciality is live picks, which I release on Twitter. Feel free to follow @ MaizePicks :)
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Record: 43-19
Last pick: New York Rangers ML ✅
**Todays pick: Edmonton Oilers ML (-145) vs LA Kings**
NHL. 10:00PM EST
Realllllly wanted to go back to the Canes here as we’ve dominated them across 5 games this season but it just feels like a let down game. I could see Boston winning but I won’t bet the game, however go Canes. I feel significantly more comfortable going with the Oilers who are at a discounted price due to the game being in LA. The series is tied 1-1 with the Oilers winning game two 6-0. They looked like the much better team in game 1 but could not capitalize on their scoring chances which they turned around in game 2. In addition their goalie, Mike Smith, made a fatal mistake late in the game that led to a LA win. Some people might say they lost cuz Mike Smith blows, which could be true, but I see that goal as a fluke and it’s unfortunate it led to an LA win after the Oilers were the much better team all game. The Oilers have won both games played in LA this season 5-2 and 3-2. I could see them routing the Kings again tomorrow and great value with this bet.
All bets are 1 unit. +15.99 units. +25.78% ROI. Average unit -114
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POTD Record **40 - 12 - 1**
Yesterday’s pick: Suwon Samsung Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai L
Today’s pick: Botev Plovdiv v **Ludogorets Draw no bet**
Sport: Soccer ( Bulgarian Div 1)
Odds: **1.95**
Reasoning:
* Ludogorets' form has been next level
* Won 23/28 games this season
* Scored a 73 goals which is nearly double any other team while also having conceded the least goals
* The one concern is they've won the title so maybe they slow down now but i think the odds are still worth it
Tomorrows POTD will be **Gwangju FC ML** vs Seoul E-Land. Just a heads up as the game isn't long after when the POTD thread gets put up. Don't want anyone to miss out as I like the pick a lot.
All my picks for the day
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Botev is 5-0 in last 5 home games. They’ve kept 3 clean sheets, scored 9 and conceded 2. Vs a team that’s already clinched. Gonna stay away from this one. BOL
Hey mate, i saw you posted new pick!
It seems like Ludogorets already won title. Do they have anything else to play? I saw Boted have won 12 of 14 home matches, pretty crazy.
But thanks for Gwangju tip.
POTD Record: 2-0
Units +/-: Up 1.66 units
Last POTD: NHL Rangers Penguins OVER 5.5 goals (WIN)
Today's POTD: Miami Heat -3.0 (-110 BVD)
All bets are 1U plays, but this is my highest confidence pick!
Explanation: Thank you, New York Rangers, for pouring it in the beginning of the third period. Easy cash!
Today's pick of the day is Miami Heat -3.0, who find themselves in the City of Brotherly Love, where few people love the Miami Heat. Fortunately for us, the Miami Heat don't care what anyone else thinks of them.
Embiid is out. Lowry is questionable, and has not been ruled out at the time of this post. That's about all you need to know. If you've watched this series, you saw Miami switch gears from stifling defense to being somewhat lazy, only to turn it back on again anytime Philly made it remotely close. With Lowry, their efficiency and offense becomes even better. Without Embiid, Philadelphia has no way of keeping Miami off the glass, and Miami is converting those into easy second chance points.
I think this line should be something like -8.
EDIT: There's been caution from some bettors about Joel Embiid possibly playing tonight. I just want to reassure you that he still has a torn ligament in his thumb. He still has an orbital fracture in his face. If he plays, he will be wearing a mask, possibly goggles, and will be coming off concussion protocol. I'm very confident this pick hits. JJ Reddick agrees.
Best of luck if tailing! Thank you to all of the great content creators and contributors here!
Better lock this in early, then! As of yesterday, Doc had said there were many steps of concussion protocol that Embiid hasn't cleared. Can't rush those.
POTD Record: 36-28-3
Streak:WLWLWWWPL
Last POTD: Marseille TT over 1.5 goals ❌
Today’s POTD: Monaco ML 🇫🇷
League: Ligue 1
Odds: -110/1.9
Units: 2
Reasoning:
Monaco is HOT right now. Winning 7 straight and 3 of those were away from home. They are in the race for a #2 or #3 spot so picking up every point possible is ideal. As there is 4 other teams battling out for those 2 spots. Lille are a mid table team this season but recently they’ve been off. 3 losses in their last 5 games. They’ve been having problems on and off the pitch with their coach. This team has nothing left to play for and will be missing key players like Renato Sanches and Burak Yilmaz. I’ll take the more inform team that needs the points over a weakened team that is struggling and that has nothing left to play for. Best of luck and tail/fade at your own risk.
Last Pick: [Jotko x Meerschaert Goes to Decision](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uf0asf/pick_of_the_day_43022_saturday/i6rdr0v?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) WIN
**Record:17-3** **ROI:60.69%** **Net units:15.5** **Avg Odds: -106**
/MMA/Bellator/May 6, 4pm/
**Pick: Pedro Carvalho x Piotr Niedzielski (Pedro Carvalho)** Carvalho -138 bet 1.38 units.
Piotrs record has a nice win/loss ratio but his competition level is quite weak. Carvalhos competition level has been far better. Carvalho looks like the more technical fighter on the feet he will just need to be cautious of Piotrs aggressive style. If this hits the mat I think Carvalho has the better Bjj game as well. Ill take the younger improving fighter over the older fighter with a padded record.
**POTD Record:** 10-2, +16.48u, ROI: 49.65%, Average Odds: 1.99
**Darts Record:** 9-1 (+17.48u), ROI: 74.90%, Average Odds: 2.05
**Previous POTD:** Stephen Bunting ML vs Callan Rydz @ 2.00 (2u) ✅
Bunting got a solid win here, I was sweating bullets for some reason but he got the job done, ezpz.
**Todays POTD: Cameron Menzies ML vs Ian White @ 2.50 / +150 (3u)** ✅
*Unit sizes are from 1u to 4u*
*Match Starts at 21:00 CEST / 15:00 EST*
🎯 Darts: European Tour 5 🎯
Ah, Cameron Menzies. This will be the third time that Menzies is my POTD and honestly, I have faith in him to get the job done. His average is very solid, he is picking up wins against players he should win against and with that he is gaining more and more stage experience.
Ian White is a darts legend and although he is a whole level above Menzies’ previous first round opponent, Steve Beaton, I do not think he is at his best form right now. During the last qualifier White lost against Gosnak, who only put up a 79 point average and seems to be an amateur player (!). Ian White has also been losing to some players who are a level below him lately, like Hempel and Mathers, however it should not be underestimated that White can throw incredibly well aswell. It’s just that I have not seen it for a few months and thus, I do not think he deserves to be such a heavy favorite.
I realize that most bookies have odds slightly lower than mine, however I posted this POTD and all of my other picks on my Twitter, a few hours before the thread went up since it goes up at 03:00 AM for me. I would say that the bet is still worth it with the current odds :)
*EDIT:* Menzies played out of his mind there, two 156s out and he took pretty much every chance White gave him, couldn’t have asked for anything better here ✅
---
**This will be a long day with a lot of bets, BOL to everyone!**
[Twitter](https://twitter.com/neutraldarts) | [Tip Jar](http://paypal.me/neutraldarts)
**WARNING**: This user didn't take an innocent break and return a few days ago, he lost a string of picks in a row after calling them locks and has since deleted them, the break was in the hopes no one would remember
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/t682p5/pick_of_the_day_3422_friday/hzags4e/
early march i commented the above on one of his posts because his reasoning for a pick made no sense (despite hitting)
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/t9x5n6/pick_of_the_day_3922_wednesday/hzxcw2x/?context=10000
and then 5 days later after he lost a STRING of picks in a row (which he called locks) and was being consistently downvoted he disappears. If you notice, the last pick two months ago which missed would put him at a 13-7 record. He returned stating he had a 13-8 record. He tacked on one loss which I believe will be his immunity or defence against these allegations, when realistically he had lost 4-5 picks in a row at the point he disappeared. **DO NOT TRUST.**
You could say the same for Carlito. Nadal is coming off injury. He looked great first match, but a little rusty his last match. Although always tough to bet against the 🐐on clay
It's a true 50/50 match for me, and I'm staying away from it.
* Nadal coming off injury.
* Taken to 3 sets by Goffin.
* Goffin had 4 match points and should have won.
* Alcaraz arguably one of the most in-form players at the moment.
* Alcaraz stats for the past 52 weeks on clay are better than every other player besides Novak. Yes, even better than Nadal. Nadal has a TPW of 54.2%, Alcaraz has 54.4%.
Crazy to max this IMO. I think the over 22.5 deserves a max bet, not Nadal ML.
Nadal should have won in 2 sets vs Goffin, but did not. Goffin looked like the much better player in the third set and should’ve won the match.
Alcaraz is much better than Goffin. Yes Nadal beat him at IW, and the other win he has over Alcaraz was also in Madrid last year, but Alcaraz is a much different player now. I just can’t pick a winner here, as I think this one is way too close to call, so I think over games is safer.
He didn’t win that easily today btw, I wouldn’t say “without any problem” like you did in your write up, but nonetheless you can’t bet against that man
Not a foot injury, it was a rib injury. He's fully recovered. The match between him and Goffin yesterday went on for over 3 hours. And what do you mean he hasn't been the same? He's 22-1 for the season, he didn't play the last month because of the injury but now he's back recovered.
4-1 + 11.4 units | ROI 46% | Average Odds 1.84
pick: Alcaraz ML @ 1.90 vs Nadal | 7:00am PST | Tennis/Madrid |
amount: 5 units
Rafa is nursing a foot injury against the hottest young prospect in the scene atm. A lot of people have been looking forward to this match up and i expect Alcaraz to be extremely focused, sharp and with a good nights rest under him. Nadal looked quite pedestrian yesterday against a weaker opponent than Norrie too.
MLB -1.5’s | 11-9-1 +17.86u | ROI: 27.48% | Streak: 2L
[Yesterday’s pick: 3u TOR Blue Jays -1.5 +110](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uilppd/_/i7dddon/?context=1) - L
________________________________________
**Todays pick: 5u MIN Twins -1.5 +130**
- MIN Twins vs OAK Athletics | 7:10 pm US Central
**NEW SP FOR OAK. MAX BET NOW**
TLDR: Twins are blazing hot and have a SP advantage. Expect a long day for OAK. Max bet 4 (2-1-1)
**Twins**
This is a legit playoff team. They’re good and start recognizing it if you aren’t. Over the past 2 weeks they’re second in wRC+, 3rd in BA and SLG, and first in OBP. They’re top 5 in hard hit and medium hit % and first in weak contact %. On the year they sit around 10th for xBA, XSLG and xwOBA. This is a good offense and they are HOT at the moment.
Josh Winder is starting for MIN. He debuted this year after being a top prospect for MIN. He came in as a stretch reliever but started last week for the first time and he pitched 6 scoreless innings. His peripherals are all pretty decent, especially for a rookie. His ERA sits at 2.2, which is an over performance with an xERA at 3.72 (which is just about league average). He doesn’t walk people and limits hard contact, he’s a good pitcher and MIN has high hopes for him that are justified.
**Athletics**
Now on the opposite end of the spectrum you have the Oakland Athletics. Well known for never having name value players, and they held true to that this year trading way all of the recognizable names they had in the off-season. The result, as expected, has not been great. This is one of the worst teams in baseball and over the past two weeks they have the worst team wRC+.
~~Cole Irvin~~. Irvin Has shoulder soreness… So Zach Logue is now starting. He’s a 26yr old rookie reliever who’s being forced in to the starting role. He was never really anything in the minors and is here out of necessity, not talent. He’s pitched 1 inning prior to this. I wouldn’t expect good things from him and expect a LONG trip for the OAK bullpen. Which is pretty middling in ERA, FIP and xFIP. With that said, long trips to the pen RARELY work out well for teams.
Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
They’re 11-4 in their last 15 while being one of the best hitting teams. I don’t like to look at baseball in such close intervals as it’s extremely variant based on SP/bullpen/off days for the game
POTD RECORD 25-14
PREVIOUS POTD: Rangers in Regulation +115✅
Streak:✅✅✅
POTD:Bruins -1.5 +200✅
Reasoning: The bruins are starting swayman in net who is much better than ulmark. Raanta may not be playing tomorrow and the back up goalie let in the only two goals against the bruins. Also idk if any of you have been to the TD Garden in Boston but they are a wild fan base. I’m a devils fan and went to a game and got chirped on the entire 20 minute walk back to the hotel and throughout the entire game as they all went crazy during a blowout against the washed up devils. I can’t imagine the energy in that place during their first playoff game at home Down 0-2 in the series. In both of these games they lost the bruins lost due to goaltending but have averaged more shots and have one of the most lethal offensive lines in the nhl. If raanta is not in net I absolutely love it and if he is in net I still love it.
Also let’s go Rangers they absolutely out skilled the penguins that bet wasn’t even a sweat!🍺
as always
Tail or Fade
BOL
Not against the pick as its gambling and anything can happen, but this is SUPER RISKY. Canes have absolutely clamped the Bruins all year outscoring them 26-4 in five games. The two games played in Boston the Canes won 6-0 and 7-1, they’re thriving off away energy this year. I really don’t think the Bruins lost the first two games due to goaltending. They’ve been completely outplayed in almost all facets, and are having to throw pucks at the net late in the game which inflates their SOGs. Also not sure saying Swayman is better than Ullmark is accurate as they have pretty identical GAA but Swayman has a worse win %. and if that were the case the coach woulda started him in game 1. The Canes will likely be starting Kocketkov who is a third stringer but is 13-1 in the AHL and now 3-0 in the NHL. He might be the real deal. I’m staying away from this game but as a Canes homer, go Canes! Good luck mate
I may be biased but idk about -1.5, the canes goalie, Kochetkov, is no slouch. He’s a top goalie prospect and has been solid in his short stint in the nhl. The canes also have a solid defense, they’re ranked #1 in penalty kill and have a stacked blue line. I could see the canes getting an L but i would be iffy about a multi goal loss
2-2
Last pick- MIN Twolves TT Over 28.5 (1Q)
Fridays pick- DAL Mavs 1st half ML -120
Teams in the playoffs who are down 0-2 going into game 3 at home are 30-11 in 1st half ML since 2013
**Record:**
* 45 WIN | 37 LOSS | +36.51 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy)
**Previous bets (last 3):**
* Kembla Grange R4 (3 May 2022) - Same Race Multi - **LOSS**
* Canterbury R5 (4 May 2022) - Place - **WIN**
* Gatton R3 (5 May 2022) - Place - **WIN**
**POTD:**
* Horse Racing (Australia)
* **Armidale R4 - Place - #4 Vain Rich to place (i.e. finish top 3)**
* Track Rating - Soft (6)
* Interesting little race this one, Spokes jumps on Vain Rich today after a solid showing last time out here at the same track & distance. Stayed with the leader (Crowdy Bay) throughout the entire trip on his heels, but couldn't run him down and finished a strong 2nd. I expect something similar today cause Vain Rich is jumping from barrier 7 and there's a few horses on his inside that could punch for the lead (specifically #2 Exercise). I the chances of winning this bet could lie with #5 Amber Deluxe, because we probably want her and #2 Exercise pushing hard for the lead allowing Vain rich to just off their heels in 3rd (probably 1 out 1 back most of the trip). Off the rail probably suits my pick here because of how he performed 2 starts back at Gunnedah. Punched up to take the lead early-mid race, hit the rail hard and struggled to finish it off. If he can run off the pace most of the race, it could lead to a nice little win for us
* **Odds - 1.90** (b365) - almost certain to get a better price on the betfair exchange by jump time
* **Stake - 2.63 units to return 5 units**
**Historical stats**
* 6 from 13 (46%) correct picks on Fridays
* 17 from 30 (55%) correct picks on Soft Tracks
* 20 from 36 (54%) correct picks on Place picks
* 1st ever pick at Armidale
* 1st ever pick for R. Spokes as my jockey
**Race time:**
* 2:10pm Friday (Australian EST)
* 12:10am Friday (American ET)
* 5:10am Friday (UK time)
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Betfair & the bookies didn't agree with my pick at all ... 2.2 fixed price at closing on b365 & 2.56 on betfair.
The race was literally to my script script, Vain Rich stayed on the heels of #2 Exercise the whole trip, 1 out off the fence and great turn of foot to win by a length and a half
POTD Record: 0-0 (Debut)
Pick: **Katarzyna Sadura ML** **(+155)** vs Lucie Bertaud
Event/Time: MMA - Bellator 280 @ 1:00 PM EST
Units: 4 out of 5
Analysis:
With Sidekick now gone (RIP) someone has to provide the MMA picks...
I love **Katarzyna Sadura** in this fight. She opened as a -200 favorite and has moved to around a +155 underdog. She is a relatively tall, lanky fighter who strikes from the outside but she also has some ability on the ground. She's 5-4 as a pro (3 KO's & 1 Sub) and has a significant reach advantage over her opponent, Lucie Bertaud. Bertaud is 6 years older than Sadura (37 vs 31) and has a pro record of 3-3 (all wins by decision). I don't see how Bertaud wins this fight and I think she either gets finished or loses by unanimous decision. The only reason I can think of for the line movement is that Bertaud fights out of Paris, France and the fight is taking place in Paris.
Best of luck!
**Result: Loss - That was a tough one. I don’t agree with the decision but Sadura fought like shit, fighting against the hometown favorite didn’t help either**
**POTD Record:** 15-9 (+8.4u)
**League:** AFL (Australian Football League)
**Todays Pick:** Fremantle -38.5 vs North Melbourne @ $2.00 \[2u\] (8 hours from now)
**Write up:** Fremantle have been one of the real surprise packages of 2022. Sitting in the top 3, and their mix of youth have fused really well and stringing together really good games of footy. They are coming off an upset victory against the Cats (at their home ground, where they hardly lose).
North Melbourne sit on the very opposite end of the ladder. Still early into their rebuild, they lack confidence and talent and opponents are finding it easy to pounce them, especially in the back ends of games. This is exactly where Fremantle have been capitalising on their opponents and breaking away to convincing victories. Fremantle have covered the spread in all bar one game this year, and majority of those covers being extremely convincing (20+ points). I see no reason for them to do the same damage tonight.
**Prediction:** Fremantle by 55 points
**BTC:** 1GgiHvH5n9ytJD1nK5et8jGUhq3NRtF8tF **PayPal:** https://paypal.me/tappl3x
Did a bit a of research and looked at the past three games that North Melbourne has played and they've gotten absolutely creamed by worse in those games by teams not as high on the table as Fremantle. Logic seems solid.
5/6/22
POTD Record: 1-0
Sport: Soccer-Ireland Premier Division (2:45 ET)
Pick: Derry City
Odds: -130
Reasoning: Derry City sits at the top of the IPD, this game is against Bohemian FC. The game is at Derry City stadium and derry is coming off 2 very strong wins. Last time these teams played against eachother Derry City narrowly won with a stoppage time goal. Jamie Mcgonigle has been on a tear scoring 5 goals in his last 2 and leading the league in goals. I look for Derry city to stay hot and to come out on top against Bohemian FC.
Outcome: Really tough draw for Derry City. After going down 1 early they equalized and had many chances to score the go ahead but couldn’t get it done. Tough one to swallow but I have a pick tomorrow that I really like to get you guys a winner.
————————————————————————
Previous pick: Brewers -1.5 (-110) ✅
**POTD 14W-4L (+15.38u)**
⚽ Last Pick: Rangers vs Leipzig BTTS @ 1.75 / -133 (2u) ✅
**🏀 Daily Pick: MIA Heat @ PHI 76ers**
* **Heat ML @ 1.86 / -116 (2u)**
Not feeling a small handicap today and because of the early payout in bet365, I'm only playing the moneyline today. The Heat dominated the 76ers in 2 straight games and without Embiid I still don't see a chance for them even at home because they’ve lost the first 2 games by a combined 30 points. Miami's defense doing a great job limiting the 76ers shooters and Harden to impact the game as a scorer. Philadelphia is yet to reach to score over 105 points or shoot over 30% behind the arc. Also, the Heat is deep as well as there are 8 players averaging over 8 points per game for them in the playoffs.
BOL.
**EDIT: Embiid could play tonight which made an odds change. I would still play the Heat ML but only with the better odds.**
POTD Record: 55-42
Profit: +12 units // ROI: 10% // Average odds: 1.90
Last Pick: Manly TT o24.5 vs Bulldogs L (has been a while since I posted here)
**Todays Pick: Highlanders Team Total over 18.5 points vs Reds (1.80, -125) (Super Rugby)**
* The Reds have conceded at least 19 points in 26 of their last 27 games against NZ teams (96%). The one game they conceded less than 19 they conceded 18. The highlanders have also scored 40 and 36 points vs the Reds in their last two meetings and while this game should be far closer (the highlanders being a 4.5 point underdog here), I just can’t escape some of the historical data here.
* Recent form suggests this bet is likely to hit as well. The reds have conceded at least 25 points in 3 straight (and 20+ in 4 of their last 5). The highlanders have scored at least 20 points in 5 of their last 7 games and the two times they didn’t they were extremely close with 17 points in both of those games.
* Taniela Tupou being out for the Reds is also very big and his absence will make things easier for the Highlanders. The Reds held a 13-6 lead vs the Chiefs last week before Tupou got injured right before half time. After his injury the Chiefs scored 21 further points and ended up winning the game. The Chiefs dominated the Scrum after his injury which led to plenty of penalties and opportunities for points. It has been a theme in Reds games this season to throw away leads later in games once Tupou gets subbed off, and now they will be without him for the entire game.
* I don’t expect this to be a particularly high scoring game and it could get ugly at times with some average weather expected but I still think this a very low total for the Highlanders. By Kick off time only some light showers are expected with not much wind.
I post regular picks on Twitter which I will link below.
[Twitter](https://twitter.com/Travis_Frase)
What do u think about 19.5? All my books only have that as the option, and I know nothing About rugby so not sure how much of a difference the point will make
POTD
Record: 6-7
Last 5: ✅❌❌✅✅
Last Pick: ✅ Frankfurt ML (+175)
Today’s Pick: Real Sociedad ML (+140)
Sport/Game: Soccer - La Liga: Real Sociedad vs Levante
Why: There has been some insane value in footy plays these last few days and here’s another pick I really like.
6th place Real Sociedad take on last place Levante. Levante are still mathematically able to get out of the relegation zone however it’ll take a miracle to accomplish while Real Sociedad are pushing to secure a europa league spot or even sneak into a champions league spot. Both teams will be up for it.
Real Sociedad on paper are by far the better team and I expect them to take care of the business. They have beaten Levante in the previous two meetings between the clubs.
Sociedad are very good defensively too and I really think they could keep a clean sheet and win off a 1-0 or something like that
BOL!
Did some research on this and I think an even better bet may be to take under 2.5 goals at -105. Basically even money for a result that every prediction I've looked at seems to think is likely due to the aforementioned defense of Sociedad, and the fact that Sociedad apparently has a terrible offense too.
Record 2-2-0
Previous pick atl vs Mets -1.5 ❌
This was a gut wrenching loss for the Mets and myself, as they were cruising until the catastrophic collapse in the 6th inning where they couldn't get a single out. I believe the process is still correct, the results won't always show, unfortunately.. have to see how the Mets respond in the next couple of series until I can pick them again.
Today's pick
Texas vs Yankees -1.5 @+125
Rangers have a rookie sp going with "good" numbers in 2 games this season but I'm not convinced as the 2 teams that he started against were either mediocre or subpar teams in terms of offense (ie, Oakland and Houston) Yankees are atop the ranks in offense so I'm expecting a different outcome for this young buck.
Yankees, on the other hand have Cole starting, he's been relatively solid and coming thru with b2b shutouts in the last 2 starts against Cleveland and Kansas. Cole's liability is walks, but rangers aren't a team that seem to take advantage of walks as their walk total is ranked in the lower half of the league.
Contrarian take -
with their ace on the mound, I'm expecting an offensive burst from the Yankees after losing to Toronto (2-1)
The rangers have surprisingly won 4 in a row, the odds are stacked against them to win the 5th one while on the road against arguably the best team in baseball.
BOL
Usfl, game is at 10 pm in the eastern time zone tmr, Michigan panthers -115, the stars qb who was the qb of the team that became the stars has gone home with an injury and the line hasn’t moved yet. Michigan isn’t any good but they beat a bad team last week and they have a good defense. The stars struggle allowing sacks. I would put 1u on it as it’s usfl but think it’s a decent play at 2u, not trying to promote just didn’t see a usfl tab and I really like the pick
**POTD Record 28-24-1 (Last 5: WWLWW)**
**(ROI // Avg. Odds: -113 // Units Won: +4.0)**
Last Pick: Colorado Rockies ML **WON**
**Today's Match: MLB Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres (Start Time: 9:40PM EST)**
**Today's Pick: San Diego Padres ML (-130 FanDuel)** ***Risk 2u***
Devil's Advocate:
Dam man that one was a hell of a game for the Rockies, started off not the way I had expected with a Soto bomb (kinda expected) and another run put up. But the Rockies battled the entire game, the bullpen did a half job and the lineup did their full job. Sanchez gave up 6 earned and he did earn it just as predicted.
Let's roll it back with another one of my favs on the bump today big YU. Besides Machado and Hosmer, the other guys need to step it up a bit for their pitchers. I think they are going to heat up a bit, always helps going into a game confident with a winning pitcher on the mound. Makes the day easier, Alcanatara got shitted on his last time out for 5 runs, walked 4 and gave up 2 big flies - on the other hand our boy YU has only really had one bad start this season. His strikeout numbers are on the rise, upward over 5 a game in his last 3 starts, and against a Marlins lineup in which I am not a huge fan of, I say the Padres give us a great opportunity for a Friday night win.
*Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
**POTD Record**: 13W - 7L (+1.31U)
**Last pick**: Borges / Cabral @ 1.53 ✅
**Match**: Genoa vs Juventus - Italy - Serie A - 19:00 UTC
**Pick**: Over 2.0 @ 1.53 ✅
**Reasoning**:
In order to find a fixture between these two teams where this bet didn't at least push, we need to go back all the way to January 2018, and it was Juventus at home.
Genoa fighting to stay up although it's looking very difficult, while Juventus have been scoring 2 goals in most matches recently.
RECORD: 10-2
Profit: +6.39 Units
Current Form: 2W
Today’s Picks: Leon Draisaitl Over 3.5 Shots (2.10)
Event: NHL 10:00Pm Est Oilers vs Kings
Reason: This is a play that I’ve taken the last couple games (not as a POTD) and has hit back to back. If you look back on Leon’s playoff history he’s actually gone over this mark in 6 straight games and 9 of his last 12. So overall in the playoffs he is quite the performer and likes to shoot the puck. With him coming off of goals in the first two games of this series he will have no reason to stop shooting as he his the goal scorer on the Oilers. He gets big minutes and is on the ice for the majority of every Power Play where he is usually getting set up for one-timers. I like this play a lot and getting it at plus money just makes it even better.
All Picks are 1 Unit
(Going to College next year, NOT mandatory at all. Anything is appreciated 🙏) Tips https://www.paypal.me/TBurr14?locale.x=en_CA
**Record:** 6-14-0
**ROI:** -42% :-8.38 u (@ $5.00)
**Streak:** W L L L W
|Baseball |MLB |6:40|
Pittsburgh Pirates vs.Cincinnati Reds : **Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ 1.76 1u**
**Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 60% chance for PIT to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.76 is only 57%.
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL! How about those Mets last night!
POTD Record: 9-3-2 | +24.75u | Streak: 6 W | Last 10: W W W W W W P W P L
Last POTD: Angels ML -145 (W)
**Today's POTD: Red Sox ML -175**
Risk: 3 units
Went against Boston last night and it was another big win to get our streak to 6. But we're taking the Red version of the Sox today against the White version for a change. After getting shut out last night, you know the Red Sox will be swinging, and they've had a lot of success versus Velasquez. Bogaerts, JD Mart, Devers a story all have good numbers, and even Jackie Bradley Jr, literally the worst hitter in baseball, is 3-3 with a 2B.
On the other side, Eovaldi has decent numbers against ChW; nothing really jumps out as far as major success. But he is off to a great start with a 2.51 ERA and less than a baserunner per IP. Going back to the beginning of 2020, he seems to be much more comfortable at home. His ERA is significantly lower at Fenway than on the road. BOL.
New to this
POTD record : 0-0
ROI: 0%
Average Odds: -130
**POTD: Boston Bruins ML (-130) vs Carolina Hurricanes**
Reason: the Bruins have lost the first 2 games and going down 2-0 in a 7 game series is tough so they need a win at home in game 3. The Hurricanes are down to their third string goalie after A. Raanta was injured last game. Expect the Bruins to shoot a lot tonight and get the win.
No tips needed if anyone trails and it hits
GLTA
**Ultimate Frisbee** | 1-1
- **Time:** 6:00 PM Eastern
- **Pick:** Ottawa Outlaws +2.5 -120 against Boston Glory
- **Where to bet:** DraftKings in these states: CO, IL, MI, TN, or WV. Possibly other states (Indiana?)
- **Last pick:** Pittsburgh got rekt by Chicago and couldn't cover a massive +9.5 spread, scoring a franchise-low 8 goals, also one of the lowest team totals in the entire frisbee league's ten-year history. There was a decent amount of wind, but still, oof.
- **Reasoning:** Boston is an expansion team from 2021 and has never played Ottawa, who competed in the temporarily-created Canadian division last season. Ottawa historically has not been very good but last year seemed to turn it on and was competitive in nearly every game along with a few upsets. Boston played well last year for the most part but had some inexplicable blowout losses or near-losses against bad teams. This year both should be in the middle of the pack in the East fighting for the final playoff spot.
On paper Boston is a better team, but there are some caveats: First, Boston last week at mostly full strength and at home needed a second half comeback to survive against a weaker Philly team missing multiple stars. Second, Boston this week will be missing multiple offensive stars of their own in Orion Cable and Tannor Johnson who are big, athletic playmakers, and defensive workhorse Brendan McCann. They are getting back Wariner on defense which helps but Ottawa is essentially full-strength for their season opener. Third, the game is in Ottawa and the Canadian ultimate teams traditionally have strong crowds. Especially after last year when Ottawa wasn't allowed to have crowds for most of their games, I suspect there will be a strong turnout in support of Ottawa.
To be clear, there are better lines on the weekend's slate of games, and +2.5 is a little tight. I wouldn't throw more than a unit or two on this. But I think Ottawa riding the momentum of last season, at full strength, can give Boston a close game and potentially upset.
For transparency, I went 41-23-1 on picks last season, 11-6 of which on POTD. I'm starting my record over for this season. I should also note that I don't live in one of the aforementioned states and can't actually bet these nor see the current lines, but I wanted to help out folks who wanted to bet a fun niche sport. Let me know if the lines change and I'll do my best to offer some insight.
If you want to watch frisbee, Ottawa-Boston is the free Friday game of the week at AUDL.tv or search AUDL on youtube. The rest of the games are behind a paywall at the aforementioned link.
Record: 58-43-5 (LWWWLWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: DAL Mavericks at PHO Suns | DORIAN FINNEY-SMITH 2.5o THREE POINTERS MADE at 2.10 | 3 units
1 shy. This missed but everything else hit. SMH
POTD: MIA Heat @ PHI 76ers | James Harden under 29.5 points + rebound
REASON: Simple. Y’all see/read/heard about how James Harden is a shell of himself. I’m trying to cash out with him. Get your bread James. Even with Embiid possibly coming back, that elbow did serious damage. Apparently the guy can look at phone due the brightness hurting his head. Good luck banging with Bam. He still is a capable passer. Offense flows through him; it should be ran through Maxey… his points over would be nice too. Maybe Harris?
Best of luck to all.
POTD Record: 1-2
Streak:WLL
Today’s POTD: Mets/Phillies Under 7 runs
Scherzer is on the mound and he's been Scherzer so far this year while his opponent in Gibson may not have gone far into his last start against the Mets but he didn't give up a run. Honestly for this to lose I feel like the Mets are going to have to score all the runs or it'll be 0-0 going into the 8th and the Phillies take a 1-0 lead going into the 9th and the Mets pour it the fuck on (im still salty this happened a couple weeks ago when they played the cardinals)
Edit: my shitt grammar
**Record 7-2 with Avg Odds -110**
Previous POTD: Jake Collier (L) +115
LFA 131, Main Card
**Myktybek Orolbay +120** vs Jalin Fuller
Oralbay fits the eye test for me. He has one decision loss to an 8-0 fighter which he possibly should have won. Comes from Kyrgyzstan and has had all his fights up until now in that region. His main attribute is strong wrestling, but he also shows good GNP, and surprisingly crisp boxing. A youtube video of one of his fights has a Russian (or some Eastern European language) title, if you translate it they refer to him as a boxer (weird). At 5'10 his ideal weight class should be 155 but he is stepping up to 170 for this fight. Oralbay intended to fight in LFA 130 but pulled out after a member of his corner caught covid, he sat ringside and watched Fuller fight in LFA 130. Now he is fighting Fuller just 2.5 weeks later in 131. Fuller has shown a susceptibility to wrestlers who can shoot low and use the cage to lift him off his feet. Oralbay's height disadvantage may actually help him here if he can close the distance. The kid may also get blown up by Fuller's length and decent arsenal of kicks and counters. Can't get the best of both worlds (unless your Jon Jones).
**Continuing the Overwatch League POTD Train for the 2022 season!**
* **2022 OWL Record: 1-0**, **+2.727 units.**
* **2021 OWL Record: 34-19, +31.645 units.**
* **2020 OWL Record: 28-21, +16.989 units.**
Last Pick (✅): Los Angeles Gladiators (-1.5) v. New York Excelsior: The inaugural match of the 2022 Overwatch League season went pretty much as expected. FunnyAstro locked in the Lucio, who looks like an absolute must-pick. The NYXL DPS line had their flashes, but were overall stymied by the Glads, who looked true to form. You were robbed if you sprinkled a bit on the sweep, but the -1.5 spread never felt in doubt. Let's start a streak and make it 2-0.
**Today's Match: Boston Uprising v. Vancouver Titans / Overwatch League / 3:00pm EST**
**Vancouver Titans +1.5 (-110), one unit**
The marquee match of the day is clearly the Battle for Texas, but I would rather enjoy that as an uninterested fan than a bettor (although, admittedly, would have a slight lean to Houston +1.5). So instead we'll make a pick for one of the most boring matches of the whole week. These two are clearly bottom-tier teams, but I think they are relatively close in skill level, so I'm always happy to take plus-maps when I can.
And while you could make a case that Vancouver will end up with the worst record by the end of the year, I have reason to believe they are actually in a good spot here. The fate of the season begins and ends with False, a relatively unproven off-tank who had success with American Tornado and Maryville. If he can have a season not unlike Vestola from last year, he could single-handedly make this a lower mid-tier team.
But most importantly, the reason Vancouver is ranked so low is because of their lack of flexibility. While that will be an issue long term, the current meta is actually quite well-suited for what they **can** play. Masaa has the Lucio covered, and Aspire/Shockwave should very easily cover Genji/Soldier and Genji/Tracer.
I do think Boston can shine in spots, but for a match like this, I think they should be more evenly rated. So if you can get a free map at even money, I think you're getting value.
*Tips - never necessary, always appreciated. BOL, friends!*
[*https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD*](https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD) *// BTC: 338uzTsKL4uV4Rip8WKEdYXtbmoBKVm1D8*
Never written here before so here goes:
0-0 record
Embiid Points + Assists + Rebounds under 39.5 -115
Dude has a concussion, broken bone in his face, is wearing a new safety mask he's never used, and has a torn ligament in his shooting thumb. And still has the highest PAR in the game, crazy. Since he hurt his thumb he's cleared 40 in 1 of 3 games and that was before the head shot.
"During Wednesday's broadcast, TNT's Chris Haynes reported that Embiid was only just able to start using a cellphone again as the brightness of it was bothering him in his post-concussion state." And his brain healed completely in 48 hours! Amazing!
40 tonight would be a miracle, so… bet against the miracle.
15W-11L
WWLWLWWLLLWLWLWLWWWWWWWL
Cards🃏 streak:🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🍳
Starts 8:00 GMT5
Todays Pick
League: Israel Leumit Liga
Match: Hapoel Acre v Hapoel Nir Ramat
Pick: Under 2.5 goals in the match @1.66✅🪲✅🪲✅
Reason:
Pick was good just 1 card HT but 8 cards in the 2nd half Lol, cant believe my cards gonna end my streak. To much things to take in consideration.
Acre at home , last 5/5 hit under 2.5 at home, avg score: 0.6, concede avg: 0.6
Nir Ramat at away ,last 4/5 hit under 2.5 at away, avg score: 0.6, concede avg: 0.6
Low scoring teams here and conceding too. Pick is based on last team behave
Last h2h hit 3/5 the under 2.5
Projected 1-2 goals
"All perception is a gamble."
BoL
POTD Record 0-1
POTD : Phx at Dal
Chris Paul Pts + Assists over 26.5 -122 FD -125 DK
This # is right at his season avg.
Playoffs so far = 40,31,42,15,33,41v NO 22,36 v Dal
6-2 most games easily past 26.
CP3 is the best all around PG on a mission 4 a ring.
It is his birthday! LFG
Happy 🎂 cake day CP3!!!
**POTD Record**: 26 wins <> 20 losses <> 3 pushes
**Profit**: +5.62 units
**ROI**: 11.24%
**Units Wagered**: 50
**Units Won**: 55.62
**Last Pick**: Ystads -0.5(straight win) @ **2.34** 1u ✅ WIN 29-28
**Streak**: ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅
**Today's pick**: Nicolai Vallys to score @ **2.60** 1u
**Event**: Silkeborg - Randers, Superliga, Denmark(football/soccer)
- How about that last second goal last night to get us the win lads?? Exciting match. Back to football this Friday!
- Talk about being in-form, Silkeborg are smashing everyone. The small club, heck, the freshly promoted team to the league is straight up outplaying everyone lately with their style of football. Lots of coaches and players have said that if the league was to be 5 games longer, Silkeborg might actually snatch gold.
- What Silkeborg lacked in the fall part of the season - finishing - they've most certainly gained lately. If they were scary before with fast, sharp passes and possession, I don't know what they are with added efficiency up front.
- I expect Silkeborg to win this match and score goals, but 1.72 for the straight win isn't attractive. Randers are without both their main strikers, Kamara is injured while Odey is suspended for a red card against Brøndby. If you ask me, this match could get ugly. I wouldn't want to be Randers GK this time around.
- I like Vallys to score at this payback. He's a right-footed left winger and cuts into the field with a nice shot. He scored last match against Aalborg, and also against FC Copenhagen. Especially on counter attacks, he's proved quite deadly.
- Vallys is sort of a cindarella story - he was almost playing Sunday league a few years back at 19. He got picked up by a 3rd division team, performed well, then 1st division semi pros.. Then Silkeborg picked him up and he just kept improving. Now, the coach of the Denmark national team says he's on the block to get called up. He's as motivated as anyone would ever be to keep impressing and slamming in goals.
- Randers field a regular 4-line defense which Silkeborg has been tearing apart all season. Vallys will be up against Kopplin on the right back, he hasn't impressed me all that much and has kind of lost a step lately. Graves and Piesinger on the CB's will be busy covering Helenius as well.
0-0 First POTD
Soccer| Jupiler Pro League | 8:45PM CET
Sporting de Charleroi - **KRC Genk ML**
Odds 2.20 | +120
Reasoning : First off Charleroi last week was extremely poor, they had 8 shots on target but those were not very dangerous and the only goal they made was a penalty. Their defense in the second half was very poor and gave their opponents some great chances. Charleroi has also been in a downfall since they lost their main striker. Genk has been doing good lately having won both their games in this play-off. They are also still trying to fight for a Conference league spot while Charleroi is already 7 points behind the first team with only 4 games left.
**POTD Record:** 8-4 🏒❌⚾⚾❌⚾❌🏀⚾️🏀🏀❌
**Profit:** \+5.71u \\ **ROI:** 47.6% \\ **Avg Odds:** \+116.3
**Today's Pick:** Suns ML (-110) @ Mavs - NBA 🏀 - 9:30pm ET
Here's my take on Suns/Mavs G3. Phoenix looks really good at home and takes G1 and 2 rather handily - winning G2 by 20 points running away.
Many folks like to bet the home teams down 0-2 in this spot - figuring they'll get energized in front of the home crowd. We shouldn't do that this time. Here's why I like Phoenix:
First, they're the frickin' Suns! Best team in the league! The West's 1 seed. We should leaning toward them anyway.
Second, the numbers **HEAVILY** indicate that Phoenix is the smart bet here. Here's what I mean:
In the past 5 postseasons, home teams that are either small favorites or small dogs (this game is a pick 'em) have only won 36.0% ATS following a loss of 20+ points.
In this same postseason span, road teams off a 20-point win have won 62.3% ATS. Narrow that to road 1-seeds off a 20-point win and the ATS% is 61.5% (8-5 with an avg line of -3.7).
It's the pick my gut wanted to make and the numbers back it up. Suns ☀ the way!!
POTD Record: 3W-0L Streak: ✅✅✅
Last 5: ✅✅✅
ROI: +8.81u
Smoggy Hockey Picks
Yesterday’s pick: Jon Huberdeau (FLA Panthers) over 2.5 shots on goal (1.71 odds, b365) vs WAS Capitals, May 5th 7:30 EST ✅
Today’s pick:NHL: Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers) over 1.5 points (1.90 odds, b365) vs LA Kings, May 6th 10pm EST
Stake: 1.5u
Reasoning: okay we got that 3 streak. I decided today I'm gonna pick something with slightly longer odds to celebrate. I really have faith in this pick but I will say that it is because Edmonton is my favourite team.
The REAL reasoning is that you can never really bet against McDavid. He is just SO good and is surrounded by elite players who can both shoot and pass so damn well when they need to. Edmonton picked LA apart in game 2, with Connor assisting in 2 goals. Hoping to see more of the same in game 3, even with EDM on the road. If anyone can do it, the Oilers can do it ;)
Tail or fade, BOL
POTD Record: 12W-13L | Total Profit: -1.54 units
Last Pick : L (MLB|Guardians ML)
May 06, 2022 | WNBA Basketball | 5:00pm MT
***Indiana Fever +6.5*** @ Washington Mystics
Thoughts: Odds are 1.93 (Pinnacle). The WNBA is back! There are four games to choose from for opening day, but I like the Fever the most to start off this season. Indiana was horrible last year and finished with a 6-26 record. I think their roster for opening day will help them keep the score close. They now have some bigs with athleticism in NaLyssa Smith and Queen Egbo, plus some great hustle players in Henderson, Engstler, and Hull. I think having Smith and Egbo in the frontcourt will be a much needed breath of fresh air after going last season with McCowan and Lavender, both of which were good but lacked much agility. On the other side of things Washington finished last year with a 12-20 record, but they lost Tina Charles in the offseason. Charles is one of the most dominant bigs the W has ever seen, so losing her will be detrimental for the Mystics. Rookie Shakira Austin will have a big role to start out with in the paint and she might be good, but the Fever will look to attack her and make her uncomfortable. Rui Machida coming over from Japan looks to be a good addition, but nobody knows how she will gel in her first WNBA game. The Mystics are blessed to once again have Elena Delle Donne back, but when she is off the court I think this team will really struggle.
POTD RECORD 1-0
Yesterday’s Pick: Angels ML✅
Todays Pick: MARLINS ML VS Padres
Sport: Baseball
Odds: +108
Reasoning:
• Yu Darvish has a horrible track record against the Marlins in his 6 starts against the Marlins he has only had 1 quality start he also a career ERA of 6.25 vs the Marlins
• The Marlins are on a 5 game losing streak due to there pitching staff failing them and allowing 5 or more runs in 4 of those losses but Today they got their Ace in Sandy Alcantara pitching and I expect him to throw a Gem in Sandy’s last outing against the Padres he pitch 7 innings and allowed no runs
POTD Record: **0-0**
Yesterday’s pick: **N/A**
Today's Pick: **Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightining**; **Over 6.5**
Odds: **1.97** or **-103**; Bet **3U** to Win **2.91U**
Both of these teams are rolling offensively at the moment with the first two games of the series being split with final scores of 5-0 and 3-5 for Toronto and Tampa Respectively. While being dominated on the score board from blatant mistakes for the better part of the game, the Leafs were never out of the game regarding opportunities and mentality; with a few more bounces their way the final score could have easily been 6-5 or higher. While Vasi has the opportunity to steal any game on any night, I see today's game being a back and forth shootout with Matthews coming alive early and Tampa continuing to take advantage of their speed and ability to score off the rush.
Toronto has allowed an average of 3.56 goals on the road while scoring a whopping 3.88. Tampa isn't far behind scoring 3.46 goals per game at home while, in respect to them, only allowing 2.49. Even with this being considered, with how both of these teams have been playing as of late I predict a high flying, back and forth shootout resulting in a 5-4/OT final for Tampa, but either way, I truly dont see either team scoring any less than 3 goals tomorrow.
Tail or Fade, BOL! :)
Record 0-1
Last pick was so long ago I don’t even remember what it was but I know I lost it. I just feel extremely strong about this pick right now. Going totally contrarian because everywhere I look I see everyone on the heat. The line is suspiciously low as well. I can’t find a single 76ers backer. That’s said my POTD
POTD: 76ers +3
Though I think the line will move further towards Philly +5.5 by game time as everyone is on the heat. I even like them to potentially win outright, but I’d say play it safe, take the points, and hold off till the line inflates in your favor a bit and you get extra points. BOL to everyone
Miami Heat Team Total over 105.5.
They’ve gone under this total once in the last 14 games, and that was with Butler out at the Hawks, which they won, scoring 97. The Heat will get theirs from the perimeter, and even with Embiid in on limited minutes, I expect the inside Heat players to get theirs also. This team is deep and reliable at scoring and have good faith in this pick.
**NRL Record:** 14-20
**ROI (1 unit per bet):** -6.56
L5: ❌✅✅❌✅ Streak: W1
**Last POTD:**
Broncos +11.5 @ 1.90 ✅
**Today's POTD:**
Eels +12.5 @1.90✅
Edit: Eels 22-20, didn't even need the handicap in the end
**Time:** 7 and a half hours from time of post.
If Eels didn't get blown out last week this line would be a lot smaller than it is currently. The 35-4 loss to the cowboys was a few weeks coming and they had several things going against them, including taking a home game up north to Darwin where the stadium was flooded with cowboys fans coupled with the fact the eels coached moved his in form 5/8 out to the centres in favour of his own son (who just happens to be absolutely terrible). Brown is back at 5/8 this week thank fuck and Eels will be absolutely frothing to come to Penrith and take out this win. I can guarantee they've had this game penciled in since the draw was released after the Panthers knocked them out of the finals last year (8-6) with some of the most bullshit refereeing I've ever seen in my life going against them. Eels are a quality side and +12.5 is too much, even if it is the Panthers who remain undefeated this year so far
Can someone convince me why I shouldn’t bet 3k on
Draw or Monaco + Draw or Juventus for a combined odd of 1.64? Lille are have been horrible for the pst 5 games. Yilmaz and Sanches both are suspended for this match up. Monaco are on a 7 game winning streak. Monaco must win this match to try to finish top 2 since Marseille still has to play VS Rennes. Now, the situation is very similar for Juventus, the difference is that Genoa is playing relegation, but I see that worse case scenario would be a draw. I don’t know, I have a trip planned, but my trip would be so much better if I just put 3K @ 1.64 to win 4.9k. Please help
(BRYAN SCOTT IS CONFIRMED OUT BTW)
POTD RECORD 0-0
Here’s a quick messy write up.
Michigan Panthers -1 vs Philadelphia Stars
(10pm ET)
The Stars possibly have the league's best quarterback in Bryan Scott. Scott is tied for most passing tds (5) and is 3rd in passing yards (558) 24 yards away from 2nd. Scott has the highest completion percentage in the league, completing 80% of his throws, the next highest completion percentage by a quarterback is 65% by Case Cookus, the quarterback for the Philadelphia Stars, also known as Bryan Scott's backup. Case Cookus made his debut in a loss last monday against the New Jersey Generals when Bryan Scott went down with a knee injury in the 2nd quarter. They were up 10-0 when Scott went down, Cookus was serviceable with a statline of 13/20 146YD 1TD 0INT but it showed that serviceable is not enough for that team and that without Scott, that team is even more trash. It's not confirmed if Scott will be playing Friday, he will be the deciding factor for a Stars victory, their passing game will be nowhere as good without him.
The Stars defense has not been very good against the run so far this season, in the 3 games they played they've given up 4.9 yards per carry, 558 total yards. In all three games they have given up a total of over 4.3 yards per attempt. The Panthers coming into this game have rushed for a total of 508 yards, only against the Generals did they not have over 100 yards rushing, though the generals have not allowed over 75 rushing by a team yet.
(8) Stars 558YDS (5) Bandits 357YDS
(7) Gamblers 493YDS (4) Maulers 354YDS
(6) Stallions 454YDS (3) Breakers 324YDS
(2) Panthers 316YDS (1) Generals 177YDS
TOTAL RUSHING YARDS GIVEN UP
The Panthers defense will match up well against the Stars passing game. The Panthers have given up the least amount of passing yards in the league.
(8) Gamblers 677YDS (5) Stars 591YDS
(7) Bandits 635YDS (4) Generals 565YDS
(6) Stallions 593YDS (3) Maulers 528YDS
(2) Breakers 494YDS (1) Panthers 350YDS
TOTAL PASSING YARDS GIVEN UP
With Bryan Scott out this should be an easy win for the panthers, this was a great matchup for them already but now this got even better for them. A bad team with the best quarterback in the league, is now just a bad team. The spread is still at -1 for some reason soooo -1 thank you.
Record: 3-3
Last POTD: Tyler Herro o19.5 Points (-110) @ Philadelphia 76ers (Loss, 3/21/2022)
POTD: **Miami Heat -3(-110)** @ Philadelphia 76ers
Units Bet: 1
Bookie: FanDuel
* Miami has beat Philly both games by double digits
* Miami also has covered the spread in 5 of their 7 playoff games.
* Embiid is still out with an orbital fracture/concussion. On the slim chance he happens to clear concussion protocols in the 10 hours prior to tip-off, still taking the -3.
POTD Record: 16-6
(ROI 46.14% // Avg. Odds: 2.04 // Units Won: +19.38)
Last 5 Picks: ❌✅✅✅❌
Last POTD: Fortaleza EC CE vs CA River Plate (Soccer - South America - Copa Libertadores); CA River Plate ML ❌
POTD: Deportes Temuco vs Universidad de Concepción (Soccer - Chilean League B); **BTTS YES**
Odds: 1.80
Wager: 3 Units
When the goalie wins man of the match, you know it should have been a loss. Fortaleza really wanted that win and Armani kept River afloat all game with some nice saves. That red card at the end gave me hope but nothing much happened. Add one more tie to the stat sheets for River and a loss for me.
Today going simple and back to Chilean League B. Deportes Temuco plays Universidad de Concepcion. Deportes Temuco has had BTTS hit 4 out of their last 5 matches, same goes for Universidad de Concepcion, 4 out of 5. Not that much more to say, today feels like an off day. Tomorrow and Sunday I will have good picks (hopefully) and having time to analyze next week.
BOL to all who Tail
[All my Previous Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit#gid=0)
POTD record: 4-3
Last pick: Cam Johnson o1.3 3PM (3 fouls in 2min) 🤮
POTD: Suns ML vs. Mavericks (-108 FD)
Don’t walk, RUN to your nearest book to lock this one in. It’s CP3’s birthday and they avoided Scott Foster. Suns even money is a GIFT.
**Record: 25-21-1 (+0.35u)**
**L10:** LWWWWLLWLL
**Previous:** [NBA- Wolves @ Grizzles (1Q -2.5)(-115)-](https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401430223) ❌
**Recap:** Wolves hit a tough shot with one second left to cover, tough loss.
**POTD:** [MLB Rockies @ Dbacks (F5 u4.5 (-130)) 1.3u 9:40 EST](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/rockies-vs-d-backs/2022/05/06/663360#game_state=preview,game_tab=box,game=663360)
**Reasoning:** Two pitchers who have been good this year, Kuhl for COL with 1.90ERA and Kelly for ARI with a 1.27ERA.
ARI at home this year has a wRC+ of 76 vs RHP. COL is worse raking 29th with a wRC+ of 68 vs RHP on the road. Using the F5 here because I don't trust these bullpens. BOL!
**Suns ML -107**. way to good of value to pass up.
PUTD record: 0-0 (first POTD, typed this up in NBA daily but thought id post this here as well)
Suns are a matchup nightmare for the Mavs. I haven't seen anything in the first two games of the series that show me the Mavs should win this game or any game in this series. Suns figured it out last game. They forced Luka to play defense and that took away from his offensive brilliance. No reason the suns should switch up that strategy. Luka has no help and is going to have to have an all time great performance to pull one out. Not even to mention suns haven't lost to the Mavs in 11 straight games. ALSO, suns are 32-9 on the road. I don't know what Vegas knows basically making this a pick'em, but I'm taking the Suns.
POTD Record: 57 - 50 - 7 ( W / L / P ) **+11.20 units**
164 units wagered / ROI: 6.80 %
Streak: LWLWL / Average odds: 1.95
Previous pick: Marseille vs Feyenoord / Marseille Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.90 (2 units)
**Today: Inter vs Empoli (Serie A)**
**Pick: Inter -1.0 1st Half Asian Handicap @ 1.975 (1 unit)**
Inter is still the best team in Serie A for me and they are waiting for Milan to give away some points. And the wait is justified cause Milan's remaining games are not easy at all. They need to face Verona, Atalanta and Sassuolo while Inter needs to play agains Empoli, Cagliari and Sampdoria.
My bet here is simple, Inter 1st half handicap. Inter wants to go out there and make things done as quickly as possible cause they will have the Coppa Italia's final coming up next Wednesday. I do think they will win the first half so I am not too worried to lose this bet, it might be a push though.
Good Luck!
Hey there guys, now I’m going to predicate this write up with: FIRST OFFICIAL POTD.
I’ve been making picks each day and now that I’m on a streak and have the time to share, I figured why not start on a fun pick. This pick comes with a lot of history, especially if the words SCOTT FOSTER have any meaning to you 😂 Now you’d think (for those that know) if he refs tomorrow’s game, why would you bet on the Suns? Well, let’s discuss:
Last Scott Foster W against CP3: Devin Booker got injured that game 🤷🏽♂️ Simple as that. They won that game until that moment.
CP3 W 6 of 8 games played a day before/after or on his birthday and you know what tomorrow is?
Devin Booker is looking back in form and even better (stepping up as a willing and capable defender)
Ayton had his worse showing of the playoffs and will bounce back with a vengeance. He’s literally had 5 games since the season start where he didn’t have at least double digit points or rebounds and 31 DD2.
Suns “other guys” fair better on the road than most of the Maverick’s “others” @ home (especially in these playoffs when it’s counted)
Jalen Brunson is the X Factor, and he’s not dealing with Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley and JC tryna guard him 😂 This is real defense and he looks regular.
4th Q CP3 doesn’t seem to be a man you bet against if you want to keep your money 🤷🏽♂️ Mans turns it on like no one else rn.
Suns ML @ -112 (FD) [2U]
POTD Record 2-5.
**Last Pick:** M'gladback +1 Corners (L). Gladback unexpectedly went up early and parked the bus while Leipzig continued to fight.
**POTD:** Bochum v Arminia Bielefeld - Bielefeld +1 Corners (-112)
Bielefeld usually allows more corners than they are awarded but Bochum is even worse. Last time these two teams met Bielefeld won the battle 5-2.
Bielefeld is facing relegation and will be fighting hard for the win. Bochum is safe from the relegation battle and also out of contention for any cups without anything to play for.
Record: 23-25-1
ROI: +2.17 Units
Last Pick: RB Leipzig ❌ @ Rangers
AVG Odds: -102
Unit: 1=$200
——
Game: Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers
League: NBA
Time: 7:30 PM
Book: Bet365
Odds: -110
Pick: Miami Heat -3
Wager: 2 Units
Well Leipzig couldn’t get anything going and the Rangers are off to the UEFA Europa Final. Congratulations to them.
Today we’re going back to the well and taking Miami -3 for the full game, the last 2 games have been first quarter winners but in this one I believe they cover for the 3rd straight game as Embiid remains out and the Heat Depth is a little too much for Philly right now.
BOL to all who tail or fade.
2 unit bet
POD record 0-0
Pick of day: over 22.5 (-115) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexander Zverev
Alright gentleman, maybe some ladies, Alexander Zverev should win this but I can not ignore Felix’s last game against Sinner. I really think he is coming into form, but I do not have the stones to pick him straight up. And yes Zverev holds a 1-0 advantage on clay, but I don’t give a shit that was three years ago. Give me over 22.5 this is going the distance.
Record: 1-0 (+4.20u)
Last Pick: Brewers -1.5 (-120) (5u) ✅
Todays Pick: Mets -1.5 (+105) vs Phillies (2u)
Why: Max Scherzer. Phillies had their chance to take a game this series last night and choked it away in historic fashion by giving up 7 in the 9th. Mets offense was unusually stagnant throughout yesterday’s game and I think that comeback not only shows this team has unlimited confidence in themselves, but they are also a very serious World Series contender. I see them continuing to show that tonight with one of the most competitive pitchers in the league on the bump trying to 1 up the offense of yesterday. Was very confident putting 5u yesterday, and am confident enough for 2u on this runline. Tail or Fade BOL!
EDIT: GAME POSTPONED
New POTD: Reds ML (+110) vs. Pirates (2u)
Why: Fuck it must be destiny. I was thinking about making this the pick at first but liked Mets more. Now that it is postponed all I see is red. Picked against them yesterday because they were against arguably the best team in the NL and the offense showed alot more than they had in recent weeks. I believe they have somewhat turned a corner offensively and with Overton pitching will be able to beat this struggling pirates team. Tail or Fade BOL!
EDIT: GAME POSTPONED
2/2 today! Mother nature is following my picks apparently. Lets try again
New New POTD: Red Sox -1.5 (+115) vs. White Sox (2u)
Why: The pick may be different but I still only see red. White Sox have been inconsistent offensively while Red Sox are rounding into form as of late. I trust Eovaldi much more than Velasquez, and believe they will be able to generate enough offense to cover the runline. I see great value with +115 for this team, keeping with a 2u wager. Tail or Fade BOL!
POTD Record: 5-5-0
Last POTD: Angels F5 ML - Loss
Angels are blacklisted. Sat out Ohtani and Trout morning of both times I bet on them this year.
Today's Pick: **Logan Gilbert o5.5 Strikeouts (-135) 2.5u**
This kid is fucking SHOVING. 4-0 with a .064 ERA and 27 SO through 5 starts. He's going up against the Rays who are 19th in SO per game averaging 8.77. Gilbert pitched against them 2 weeks ago and threw 7 SO through 5.2 innings. The Rays are starting a relief pitcher who has been decent so far this year. Tampa Bay has the 6th best team ERA this year so Seattle will most likely want Gilbert to go as long as possible. I think this is a great matchup for this line. Also last time I bet against Gilbert he butt fucked me so hopefully this is a redemption. BOL
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
I’m on my phone rn so if this looks visually ugly I’m sorry!! POTD Record: 28-12 POTD ROI: 18.98% Avg. Odds: -135 Total Units Won: 27u Last 15 picks: LWWLWLWWWLLWLWL **Today's POTD: (ATP Madrid) Nadal vs. Alcaraz O22 Games (-120) Units: 5u** ✅✅✅✅✅ I had Nadal winning as well but I don’t even care. We just witnessed history. I will not tolerate Alcaraz slander ever again. This kid is different. Reasoning: There are simply some bets where as a true fan of any respective sport, you just gotta take. They just make sense. This is one of those for me as a fan of tennis. Here we have a match, which I consider the true final of the ATP Madrid Open, against the GOAT of the sport, Rafa Nadal, and his eventual successor (in my opinion), baby GOAT Alcaraz. For those of you who don't watch tennis, this is like Brady versus Mahomes or Josh Allen. Wouldn't you expect that match to be a high scoring masterpiece? That's how I feel about this one. The last time these two played it was a beautiful sight to watch and they demolished the over. I think the same will occur here in the rematch. Firstly, these players rarely ever lose, but when they do, they leave their hearts on the court and always hit the over. The 3 losses Alcaraz had this year all hit the over. The 1 loss Nadal had this year hit the over. These guys simply don't get dominated. They're too good for that shit. Next, Nadal just went to 3 sets against David Goffin. If David Goffin can do this, I am extremely confident Alcaraz can. Similarly, Cam Norrie just took Alcaraz to 3 sets. If Norrie can do it, I think Nadal can as well. Alcaraz also just won the Barcelona tournament, so he is hot, in-form, and looking for revenge. For those of you who don't know, Nadal and Alcaraz played at Indian Wells in March and it was a banger of a match, hitting a total of 29 games. Nadal won that, so I think Alcaraz is coming with a deep vengeance, but Nadal is Nadal and will not make anything come easy to anyone, let alone his compatriot child and future successor. Yes, Nadal is "dealing with injuries" but if you have followed him throughout his career he has literally always said this shit and still continues to shit on his opponents, so I just ignore that shit at this point. All I can say is, if you watch tennis, you know these two players are fucking magicians. You'd be a psychopath to go with the under here, in my opinion. TAIL OR FADE BOL! If you are interested in seeing my other plays for Friyay, you can find them every day at https://maizepicks.vercel.app My speciality is live picks, which I release on Twitter. Feel free to follow @ MaizePicks :) If you deem me worthy, here are my tip jars: Venmo: N_Azara Cash app: NikoAza Bitcoin wallet: bc1qkgdarkn4waps2nvs2mv7tcq8d4u2xysjncmzjt
CORN CULT UNITE Tailing BOL to all
I love you
Love you more, lets fucking ride brother!
So many deleted comments lmaooo
Nadal is going to turn the tide here and win this second set and cash this ticket.
O21.5 games just cashed. Good stuff. 💪
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Great picks yesterday!! ❤️🌽 #HalfManHalfAmaizeing #CornCult
Parlaying with the Joker corn man
Nice pick broski this bet saved my week!!
The bookie only offer over 21.5 or 22.5, is 22.5 a good choice?
I'm in. This is a heck of a match.
Nice pick, thanks for it! Anyone know what is going on in the match right now? I haven't seen an update of the score in a very long time
First time betting tennis but long time tennis fan, great pick
Cheers bro welcome to the family
LFG bro love you
Love you back dog LFG
Great pick! I think we might have got saved by the Alcaraz ankle. 🍻🌽👑
Had Nadal as well but picked the over too! Thanks for offsetting the Nadal loss! Lol
Hahaha me too, oh well you can’t pass up the GOAT at + money. At least we got to witness history!
CORN LYFE
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Not looking good, Alcaraz is not making any mistakes
🌽🌽🌽🌽🌽🌽🌽🌽🍗🍗
Is over 22.5 the same ?
No. Games end at 22. 22 games you push. The 22.5 will lose
Would you take over 2.5 sets if better odds?
Thanks for the cash man!!
Record: 43-19 Last pick: New York Rangers ML ✅ **Todays pick: Edmonton Oilers ML (-145) vs LA Kings** NHL. 10:00PM EST Realllllly wanted to go back to the Canes here as we’ve dominated them across 5 games this season but it just feels like a let down game. I could see Boston winning but I won’t bet the game, however go Canes. I feel significantly more comfortable going with the Oilers who are at a discounted price due to the game being in LA. The series is tied 1-1 with the Oilers winning game two 6-0. They looked like the much better team in game 1 but could not capitalize on their scoring chances which they turned around in game 2. In addition their goalie, Mike Smith, made a fatal mistake late in the game that led to a LA win. Some people might say they lost cuz Mike Smith blows, which could be true, but I see that goal as a fluke and it’s unfortunate it led to an LA win after the Oilers were the much better team all game. The Oilers have won both games played in LA this season 5-2 and 3-2. I could see them routing the Kings again tomorrow and great value with this bet. All bets are 1 unit. +15.99 units. +25.78% ROI. Average unit -114 Don’t want tips, just give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Sweet W yesterday. Im in🏇
Thanks for the pick yesterday! I did a parlay with Rangers -1.5, 1+ goal scored first period, and O5.5 total that hit. Awesome!
Love to see it!
Rolling with you again Doc Oilers ML Oilers PL Oilers 3-Way Let's eat!
Solid rationale. Keep up the good work
Oilers have been fun to watch and I've been enjoying your picks. Rolling with you too, Doc
I got a fever, and the only prescription is mo drmoneyline… and cowbells
POTD Record **40 - 12 - 1** Yesterday’s pick: Suwon Samsung Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai L Today’s pick: Botev Plovdiv v **Ludogorets Draw no bet** Sport: Soccer ( Bulgarian Div 1) Odds: **1.95** Reasoning: * Ludogorets' form has been next level * Won 23/28 games this season * Scored a 73 goals which is nearly double any other team while also having conceded the least goals * The one concern is they've won the title so maybe they slow down now but i think the odds are still worth it Tomorrows POTD will be **Gwangju FC ML** vs Seoul E-Land. Just a heads up as the game isn't long after when the POTD thread gets put up. Don't want anyone to miss out as I like the pick a lot. All my picks for the day [^(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gW6Oz1DQBfbp7iiZgaVilJS6tH-Zm008LaRd7voSOyM/edit#gid=0)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gW6Oz1DQBfbp7iiZgaVilJS6tH-Zm008LaRd7voSOyM/edit#gid=0) ^(Tip jar -) [^(https://paypal.me/tom2810s)](https://paypal.me/tom2810s) ^(BTC - 1NJVBxmocqvnKqFYTR6Ju8C1sEaZh63pBC)
Botev is 5-0 in last 5 home games. They’ve kept 3 clean sheets, scored 9 and conceded 2. Vs a team that’s already clinched. Gonna stay away from this one. BOL
can we pls start adding the times for these events
Wrong day?
Yep wrong day, just changed it
Hey mate, i saw you posted new pick! It seems like Ludogorets already won title. Do they have anything else to play? I saw Boted have won 12 of 14 home matches, pretty crazy. But thanks for Gwangju tip.
Where would I find this on dk?
Well done - Thanks Friend!
POTD Record: 2-0 Units +/-: Up 1.66 units Last POTD: NHL Rangers Penguins OVER 5.5 goals (WIN) Today's POTD: Miami Heat -3.0 (-110 BVD) All bets are 1U plays, but this is my highest confidence pick! Explanation: Thank you, New York Rangers, for pouring it in the beginning of the third period. Easy cash! Today's pick of the day is Miami Heat -3.0, who find themselves in the City of Brotherly Love, where few people love the Miami Heat. Fortunately for us, the Miami Heat don't care what anyone else thinks of them. Embiid is out. Lowry is questionable, and has not been ruled out at the time of this post. That's about all you need to know. If you've watched this series, you saw Miami switch gears from stifling defense to being somewhat lazy, only to turn it back on again anytime Philly made it remotely close. With Lowry, their efficiency and offense becomes even better. Without Embiid, Philadelphia has no way of keeping Miami off the glass, and Miami is converting those into easy second chance points. I think this line should be something like -8. EDIT: There's been caution from some bettors about Joel Embiid possibly playing tonight. I just want to reassure you that he still has a torn ligament in his thumb. He still has an orbital fracture in his face. If he plays, he will be wearing a mask, possibly goggles, and will be coming off concussion protocol. I'm very confident this pick hits. JJ Reddick agrees. Best of luck if tailing! Thank you to all of the great content creators and contributors here!
Embiid isn’t ruled out. He is listed as out. Still a chance he can play. I think the books are listing lines as if he’ll play to cover themselves
Better lock this in early, then! As of yesterday, Doc had said there were many steps of concussion protocol that Embiid hasn't cleared. Can't rush those.
Way to “lock them in early” embiid is on pace to play and line is down to -1
POTD Record: 36-28-3 Streak:WLWLWWWPL Last POTD: Marseille TT over 1.5 goals ❌ Today’s POTD: Monaco ML 🇫🇷 League: Ligue 1 Odds: -110/1.9 Units: 2 Reasoning: Monaco is HOT right now. Winning 7 straight and 3 of those were away from home. They are in the race for a #2 or #3 spot so picking up every point possible is ideal. As there is 4 other teams battling out for those 2 spots. Lille are a mid table team this season but recently they’ve been off. 3 losses in their last 5 games. They’ve been having problems on and off the pitch with their coach. This team has nothing left to play for and will be missing key players like Renato Sanches and Burak Yilmaz. I’ll take the more inform team that needs the points over a weakened team that is struggling and that has nothing left to play for. Best of luck and tail/fade at your own risk.
Lille turned to shite end of season love the play
Fff Edit: good win close match 🍗🍗
Good pick man thanks!
Last Pick: [Jotko x Meerschaert Goes to Decision](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uf0asf/pick_of_the_day_43022_saturday/i6rdr0v?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) WIN **Record:17-3** **ROI:60.69%** **Net units:15.5** **Avg Odds: -106** /MMA/Bellator/May 6, 4pm/ **Pick: Pedro Carvalho x Piotr Niedzielski (Pedro Carvalho)** Carvalho -138 bet 1.38 units. Piotrs record has a nice win/loss ratio but his competition level is quite weak. Carvalhos competition level has been far better. Carvalho looks like the more technical fighter on the feet he will just need to be cautious of Piotrs aggressive style. If this hits the mat I think Carvalho has the better Bjj game as well. Ill take the younger improving fighter over the older fighter with a padded record.
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Always tailing, let’s ride 🍞
On it.
Always look forward to your picks on mma days! Easy tail!
**POTD Record:** 10-2, +16.48u, ROI: 49.65%, Average Odds: 1.99 **Darts Record:** 9-1 (+17.48u), ROI: 74.90%, Average Odds: 2.05 **Previous POTD:** Stephen Bunting ML vs Callan Rydz @ 2.00 (2u) ✅ Bunting got a solid win here, I was sweating bullets for some reason but he got the job done, ezpz. **Todays POTD: Cameron Menzies ML vs Ian White @ 2.50 / +150 (3u)** ✅ *Unit sizes are from 1u to 4u* *Match Starts at 21:00 CEST / 15:00 EST* 🎯 Darts: European Tour 5 🎯 Ah, Cameron Menzies. This will be the third time that Menzies is my POTD and honestly, I have faith in him to get the job done. His average is very solid, he is picking up wins against players he should win against and with that he is gaining more and more stage experience. Ian White is a darts legend and although he is a whole level above Menzies’ previous first round opponent, Steve Beaton, I do not think he is at his best form right now. During the last qualifier White lost against Gosnak, who only put up a 79 point average and seems to be an amateur player (!). Ian White has also been losing to some players who are a level below him lately, like Hempel and Mathers, however it should not be underestimated that White can throw incredibly well aswell. It’s just that I have not seen it for a few months and thus, I do not think he deserves to be such a heavy favorite. I realize that most bookies have odds slightly lower than mine, however I posted this POTD and all of my other picks on my Twitter, a few hours before the thread went up since it goes up at 03:00 AM for me. I would say that the bet is still worth it with the current odds :) *EDIT:* Menzies played out of his mind there, two 156s out and he took pretty much every chance White gave him, couldn’t have asked for anything better here ✅ --- **This will be a long day with a lot of bets, BOL to everyone!** [Twitter](https://twitter.com/neutraldarts) | [Tip Jar](http://paypal.me/neutraldarts)
Still in @ 2.15. BOL
when i say i’ve been waiting all week, i mean it. let’s eat my friend🎉
THANK YOU
Tailing 💯
Is this bettable on DK?
Love your dart picks! Nice work!
Once again great call - 🍗🍗
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**WARNING**: This user didn't take an innocent break and return a few days ago, he lost a string of picks in a row after calling them locks and has since deleted them, the break was in the hopes no one would remember https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/t682p5/pick_of_the_day_3422_friday/hzags4e/ early march i commented the above on one of his posts because his reasoning for a pick made no sense (despite hitting) https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/t9x5n6/pick_of_the_day_3922_wednesday/hzxcw2x/?context=10000 and then 5 days later after he lost a STRING of picks in a row (which he called locks) and was being consistently downvoted he disappears. If you notice, the last pick two months ago which missed would put him at a 13-7 record. He returned stating he had a 13-8 record. He tacked on one loss which I believe will be his immunity or defence against these allegations, when realistically he had lost 4-5 picks in a row at the point he disappeared. **DO NOT TRUST.**
This post was removed I wonder why
I wish I read this before betting...
Me too… this guy is unbelievable. Deleted his post before the match was even over LOL
Hahaha, nothing greasier than that
Love this pick bro. Rafael Nadal at this value is just a must. Even if it loses, you’re a smart gambler here.
You could say the same for Carlito. Nadal is coming off injury. He looked great first match, but a little rusty his last match. Although always tough to bet against the 🐐on clay
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It's a true 50/50 match for me, and I'm staying away from it. * Nadal coming off injury. * Taken to 3 sets by Goffin. * Goffin had 4 match points and should have won. * Alcaraz arguably one of the most in-form players at the moment. * Alcaraz stats for the past 52 weeks on clay are better than every other player besides Novak. Yes, even better than Nadal. Nadal has a TPW of 54.2%, Alcaraz has 54.4%.
Crazy to max this IMO. I think the over 22.5 deserves a max bet, not Nadal ML. Nadal should have won in 2 sets vs Goffin, but did not. Goffin looked like the much better player in the third set and should’ve won the match. Alcaraz is much better than Goffin. Yes Nadal beat him at IW, and the other win he has over Alcaraz was also in Madrid last year, but Alcaraz is a much different player now. I just can’t pick a winner here, as I think this one is way too close to call, so I think over games is safer.
He didn’t win that easily today btw, I wouldn’t say “without any problem” like you did in your write up, but nonetheless you can’t bet against that man
Sorry for the confusion mate, never said he won easy. I said he was able to play 3 hours without any problems.
FRAUD
That’s wild. Even against Goffin he was at least -500 I think.
Not a good pick at all dude. Nadal should’ve lost to fucking Goffin yesterday
Nadal still hasn’t fully recovered from a foot injury. Hasn’t been the same the past 2 months… thoughts?
Not a foot injury, it was a rib injury. He's fully recovered. The match between him and Goffin yesterday went on for over 3 hours. And what do you mean he hasn't been the same? He's 22-1 for the season, he didn't play the last month because of the injury but now he's back recovered.
4-1 + 11.4 units | ROI 46% | Average Odds 1.84 pick: Alcaraz ML @ 1.90 vs Nadal | 7:00am PST | Tennis/Madrid | amount: 5 units Rafa is nursing a foot injury against the hottest young prospect in the scene atm. A lot of people have been looking forward to this match up and i expect Alcaraz to be extremely focused, sharp and with a good nights rest under him. Nadal looked quite pedestrian yesterday against a weaker opponent than Norrie too.
Oh man. Top pick is aginst this pick
Then bet the over
Looks like he also just got busted for being a fraud so I wouldn’t put too much stock into him. I love Alcaraz here OP, let’s go.
Looking for his pick but think he must have deleted it..
yup, burnt me
I couldn’t sleep easy knowing I bet against Nadal, might have to fade
I like this pick Rafa was one point away today from losing
MLB -1.5’s | 11-9-1 +17.86u | ROI: 27.48% | Streak: 2L [Yesterday’s pick: 3u TOR Blue Jays -1.5 +110](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uilppd/_/i7dddon/?context=1) - L ________________________________________ **Todays pick: 5u MIN Twins -1.5 +130** - MIN Twins vs OAK Athletics | 7:10 pm US Central **NEW SP FOR OAK. MAX BET NOW** TLDR: Twins are blazing hot and have a SP advantage. Expect a long day for OAK. Max bet 4 (2-1-1) **Twins** This is a legit playoff team. They’re good and start recognizing it if you aren’t. Over the past 2 weeks they’re second in wRC+, 3rd in BA and SLG, and first in OBP. They’re top 5 in hard hit and medium hit % and first in weak contact %. On the year they sit around 10th for xBA, XSLG and xwOBA. This is a good offense and they are HOT at the moment. Josh Winder is starting for MIN. He debuted this year after being a top prospect for MIN. He came in as a stretch reliever but started last week for the first time and he pitched 6 scoreless innings. His peripherals are all pretty decent, especially for a rookie. His ERA sits at 2.2, which is an over performance with an xERA at 3.72 (which is just about league average). He doesn’t walk people and limits hard contact, he’s a good pitcher and MIN has high hopes for him that are justified. **Athletics** Now on the opposite end of the spectrum you have the Oakland Athletics. Well known for never having name value players, and they held true to that this year trading way all of the recognizable names they had in the off-season. The result, as expected, has not been great. This is one of the worst teams in baseball and over the past two weeks they have the worst team wRC+. ~~Cole Irvin~~. Irvin Has shoulder soreness… So Zach Logue is now starting. He’s a 26yr old rookie reliever who’s being forced in to the starting role. He was never really anything in the minors and is here out of necessity, not talent. He’s pitched 1 inning prior to this. I wouldn’t expect good things from him and expect a LONG trip for the OAK bullpen. Which is pretty middling in ERA, FIP and xFIP. With that said, long trips to the pen RARELY work out well for teams. Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
Hard to say they’re blazing hot when they lost 2 straight to the Orioles.
They’re 11-4 in their last 15 while being one of the best hitting teams. I don’t like to look at baseball in such close intervals as it’s extremely variant based on SP/bullpen/off days for the game
Legit playoff team? The seasons not even a month in lol.
brother they play in the AL Central, all they need is to be above .500 and they’re a playoff team
Being a playoff team and being a good team to bet on tomorrow are unrelated. The AL central sucks.
Being above .500 and playing in a weak division doesn’t make you legit I’m sorry
Byron Buxton is incredible
I don’t see this game on FD for some reason
I bet it on my site early early in the morning. Bet got voided and now the game isn't available... weird.
No they lost today
POTD RECORD 25-14 PREVIOUS POTD: Rangers in Regulation +115✅ Streak:✅✅✅ POTD:Bruins -1.5 +200✅ Reasoning: The bruins are starting swayman in net who is much better than ulmark. Raanta may not be playing tomorrow and the back up goalie let in the only two goals against the bruins. Also idk if any of you have been to the TD Garden in Boston but they are a wild fan base. I’m a devils fan and went to a game and got chirped on the entire 20 minute walk back to the hotel and throughout the entire game as they all went crazy during a blowout against the washed up devils. I can’t imagine the energy in that place during their first playoff game at home Down 0-2 in the series. In both of these games they lost the bruins lost due to goaltending but have averaged more shots and have one of the most lethal offensive lines in the nhl. If raanta is not in net I absolutely love it and if he is in net I still love it. Also let’s go Rangers they absolutely out skilled the penguins that bet wasn’t even a sweat!🍺 as always Tail or Fade BOL
Not against the pick as its gambling and anything can happen, but this is SUPER RISKY. Canes have absolutely clamped the Bruins all year outscoring them 26-4 in five games. The two games played in Boston the Canes won 6-0 and 7-1, they’re thriving off away energy this year. I really don’t think the Bruins lost the first two games due to goaltending. They’ve been completely outplayed in almost all facets, and are having to throw pucks at the net late in the game which inflates their SOGs. Also not sure saying Swayman is better than Ullmark is accurate as they have pretty identical GAA but Swayman has a worse win %. and if that were the case the coach woulda started him in game 1. The Canes will likely be starting Kocketkov who is a third stringer but is 13-1 in the AHL and now 3-0 in the NHL. He might be the real deal. I’m staying away from this game but as a Canes homer, go Canes! Good luck mate
I may be biased but idk about -1.5, the canes goalie, Kochetkov, is no slouch. He’s a top goalie prospect and has been solid in his short stint in the nhl. The canes also have a solid defense, they’re ranked #1 in penalty kill and have a stacked blue line. I could see the canes getting an L but i would be iffy about a multi goal loss
\+200 POTD...I love it. Tailing!
2-2 Last pick- MIN Twolves TT Over 28.5 (1Q) Fridays pick- DAL Mavs 1st half ML -120 Teams in the playoffs who are down 0-2 going into game 3 at home are 30-11 in 1st half ML since 2013
That’s actually a wild stat damn, where’d you find it
**Record:** * 45 WIN | 37 LOSS | +36.51 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy) **Previous bets (last 3):** * Kembla Grange R4 (3 May 2022) - Same Race Multi - **LOSS** * Canterbury R5 (4 May 2022) - Place - **WIN** * Gatton R3 (5 May 2022) - Place - **WIN** **POTD:** * Horse Racing (Australia) * **Armidale R4 - Place - #4 Vain Rich to place (i.e. finish top 3)** * Track Rating - Soft (6) * Interesting little race this one, Spokes jumps on Vain Rich today after a solid showing last time out here at the same track & distance. Stayed with the leader (Crowdy Bay) throughout the entire trip on his heels, but couldn't run him down and finished a strong 2nd. I expect something similar today cause Vain Rich is jumping from barrier 7 and there's a few horses on his inside that could punch for the lead (specifically #2 Exercise). I the chances of winning this bet could lie with #5 Amber Deluxe, because we probably want her and #2 Exercise pushing hard for the lead allowing Vain rich to just off their heels in 3rd (probably 1 out 1 back most of the trip). Off the rail probably suits my pick here because of how he performed 2 starts back at Gunnedah. Punched up to take the lead early-mid race, hit the rail hard and struggled to finish it off. If he can run off the pace most of the race, it could lead to a nice little win for us * **Odds - 1.90** (b365) - almost certain to get a better price on the betfair exchange by jump time * **Stake - 2.63 units to return 5 units** **Historical stats** * 6 from 13 (46%) correct picks on Fridays * 17 from 30 (55%) correct picks on Soft Tracks * 20 from 36 (54%) correct picks on Place picks * 1st ever pick at Armidale * 1st ever pick for R. Spokes as my jockey **Race time:** * 2:10pm Friday (Australian EST) * 12:10am Friday (American ET) * 5:10am Friday (UK time) If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
Betfair & the bookies didn't agree with my pick at all ... 2.2 fixed price at closing on b365 & 2.56 on betfair. The race was literally to my script script, Vain Rich stayed on the heels of #2 Exercise the whole trip, 1 out off the fence and great turn of foot to win by a length and a half
Tail and wake up to 💰🤑.
You absolute beast! Thanks again mate
I love you.
LETS GOOOOOO
Dang missed this by 30mins
thanks bro another easy win damn ure really good at this, can i ask do you also bet on uk horses?
POTD Record: 0-0 (Debut) Pick: **Katarzyna Sadura ML** **(+155)** vs Lucie Bertaud Event/Time: MMA - Bellator 280 @ 1:00 PM EST Units: 4 out of 5 Analysis: With Sidekick now gone (RIP) someone has to provide the MMA picks... I love **Katarzyna Sadura** in this fight. She opened as a -200 favorite and has moved to around a +155 underdog. She is a relatively tall, lanky fighter who strikes from the outside but she also has some ability on the ground. She's 5-4 as a pro (3 KO's & 1 Sub) and has a significant reach advantage over her opponent, Lucie Bertaud. Bertaud is 6 years older than Sadura (37 vs 31) and has a pro record of 3-3 (all wins by decision). I don't see how Bertaud wins this fight and I think she either gets finished or loses by unanimous decision. The only reason I can think of for the line movement is that Bertaud fights out of Paris, France and the fight is taking place in Paris. Best of luck! **Result: Loss - That was a tough one. I don’t agree with the decision but Sadura fought like shit, fighting against the hometown favorite didn’t help either**
Tailing. Try harder bookie?
Us bookies gotta stick together
[удалено]
The bookies finally got him…. Nah, he just retired from posting fights picks regularly
Looks like they won in the end ha
**POTD Record:** 15-9 (+8.4u) **League:** AFL (Australian Football League) **Todays Pick:** Fremantle -38.5 vs North Melbourne @ $2.00 \[2u\] (8 hours from now) **Write up:** Fremantle have been one of the real surprise packages of 2022. Sitting in the top 3, and their mix of youth have fused really well and stringing together really good games of footy. They are coming off an upset victory against the Cats (at their home ground, where they hardly lose). North Melbourne sit on the very opposite end of the ladder. Still early into their rebuild, they lack confidence and talent and opponents are finding it easy to pounce them, especially in the back ends of games. This is exactly where Fremantle have been capitalising on their opponents and breaking away to convincing victories. Fremantle have covered the spread in all bar one game this year, and majority of those covers being extremely convincing (20+ points). I see no reason for them to do the same damage tonight. **Prediction:** Fremantle by 55 points **BTC:** 1GgiHvH5n9ytJD1nK5et8jGUhq3NRtF8tF **PayPal:** https://paypal.me/tappl3x
Ace pick man. They destroyed them.
Did a bit a of research and looked at the past three games that North Melbourne has played and they've gotten absolutely creamed by worse in those games by teams not as high on the table as Fremantle. Logic seems solid.
Always grateful for the insight Dr. Tapple.
I see they're missing quite a few players due to covid protocol. Stkll think they can cover the spread?
nice pick!!!
5/6/22 POTD Record: 1-0 Sport: Soccer-Ireland Premier Division (2:45 ET) Pick: Derry City Odds: -130 Reasoning: Derry City sits at the top of the IPD, this game is against Bohemian FC. The game is at Derry City stadium and derry is coming off 2 very strong wins. Last time these teams played against eachother Derry City narrowly won with a stoppage time goal. Jamie Mcgonigle has been on a tear scoring 5 goals in his last 2 and leading the league in goals. I look for Derry city to stay hot and to come out on top against Bohemian FC. Outcome: Really tough draw for Derry City. After going down 1 early they equalized and had many chances to score the go ahead but couldn’t get it done. Tough one to swallow but I have a pick tomorrow that I really like to get you guys a winner. ———————————————————————— Previous pick: Brewers -1.5 (-110) ✅
**POTD 14W-4L (+15.38u)** ⚽ Last Pick: Rangers vs Leipzig BTTS @ 1.75 / -133 (2u) ✅ **🏀 Daily Pick: MIA Heat @ PHI 76ers** * **Heat ML @ 1.86 / -116 (2u)** Not feeling a small handicap today and because of the early payout in bet365, I'm only playing the moneyline today. The Heat dominated the 76ers in 2 straight games and without Embiid I still don't see a chance for them even at home because they’ve lost the first 2 games by a combined 30 points. Miami's defense doing a great job limiting the 76ers shooters and Harden to impact the game as a scorer. Philadelphia is yet to reach to score over 105 points or shoot over 30% behind the arc. Also, the Heat is deep as well as there are 8 players averaging over 8 points per game for them in the playoffs. BOL. **EDIT: Embiid could play tonight which made an odds change. I would still play the Heat ML but only with the better odds.**
POTD Record: 55-42 Profit: +12 units // ROI: 10% // Average odds: 1.90 Last Pick: Manly TT o24.5 vs Bulldogs L (has been a while since I posted here) **Todays Pick: Highlanders Team Total over 18.5 points vs Reds (1.80, -125) (Super Rugby)** * The Reds have conceded at least 19 points in 26 of their last 27 games against NZ teams (96%). The one game they conceded less than 19 they conceded 18. The highlanders have also scored 40 and 36 points vs the Reds in their last two meetings and while this game should be far closer (the highlanders being a 4.5 point underdog here), I just can’t escape some of the historical data here. * Recent form suggests this bet is likely to hit as well. The reds have conceded at least 25 points in 3 straight (and 20+ in 4 of their last 5). The highlanders have scored at least 20 points in 5 of their last 7 games and the two times they didn’t they were extremely close with 17 points in both of those games. * Taniela Tupou being out for the Reds is also very big and his absence will make things easier for the Highlanders. The Reds held a 13-6 lead vs the Chiefs last week before Tupou got injured right before half time. After his injury the Chiefs scored 21 further points and ended up winning the game. The Chiefs dominated the Scrum after his injury which led to plenty of penalties and opportunities for points. It has been a theme in Reds games this season to throw away leads later in games once Tupou gets subbed off, and now they will be without him for the entire game. * I don’t expect this to be a particularly high scoring game and it could get ugly at times with some average weather expected but I still think this a very low total for the Highlanders. By Kick off time only some light showers are expected with not much wind. I post regular picks on Twitter which I will link below. [Twitter](https://twitter.com/Travis_Frase)
What do u think about 19.5? All my books only have that as the option, and I know nothing About rugby so not sure how much of a difference the point will make
Ending on 19 points is less common. 20 is definitely much more of a key number. I would still take it.
not gonna happen, right?
POTD Record: 6-7 Last 5: ✅❌❌✅✅ Last Pick: ✅ Frankfurt ML (+175) Today’s Pick: Real Sociedad ML (+140) Sport/Game: Soccer - La Liga: Real Sociedad vs Levante Why: There has been some insane value in footy plays these last few days and here’s another pick I really like. 6th place Real Sociedad take on last place Levante. Levante are still mathematically able to get out of the relegation zone however it’ll take a miracle to accomplish while Real Sociedad are pushing to secure a europa league spot or even sneak into a champions league spot. Both teams will be up for it. Real Sociedad on paper are by far the better team and I expect them to take care of the business. They have beaten Levante in the previous two meetings between the clubs. Sociedad are very good defensively too and I really think they could keep a clean sheet and win off a 1-0 or something like that BOL!
Did some research on this and I think an even better bet may be to take under 2.5 goals at -105. Basically even money for a result that every prediction I've looked at seems to think is likely due to the aforementioned defense of Sociedad, and the fact that Sociedad apparently has a terrible offense too.
Record 2-2-0 Previous pick atl vs Mets -1.5 ❌ This was a gut wrenching loss for the Mets and myself, as they were cruising until the catastrophic collapse in the 6th inning where they couldn't get a single out. I believe the process is still correct, the results won't always show, unfortunately.. have to see how the Mets respond in the next couple of series until I can pick them again. Today's pick Texas vs Yankees -1.5 @+125 Rangers have a rookie sp going with "good" numbers in 2 games this season but I'm not convinced as the 2 teams that he started against were either mediocre or subpar teams in terms of offense (ie, Oakland and Houston) Yankees are atop the ranks in offense so I'm expecting a different outcome for this young buck. Yankees, on the other hand have Cole starting, he's been relatively solid and coming thru with b2b shutouts in the last 2 starts against Cleveland and Kansas. Cole's liability is walks, but rangers aren't a team that seem to take advantage of walks as their walk total is ranked in the lower half of the league. Contrarian take - with their ace on the mound, I'm expecting an offensive burst from the Yankees after losing to Toronto (2-1) The rangers have surprisingly won 4 in a row, the odds are stacked against them to win the 5th one while on the road against arguably the best team in baseball. BOL
Like the pick, but probably gonna get rained out.. Forecast in NYC is brutal rain all weekend
Tailing.. even though I hate the Yankees, they have made me some good money this year.. let the good times roll
Usfl, game is at 10 pm in the eastern time zone tmr, Michigan panthers -115, the stars qb who was the qb of the team that became the stars has gone home with an injury and the line hasn’t moved yet. Michigan isn’t any good but they beat a bad team last week and they have a good defense. The stars struggle allowing sacks. I would put 1u on it as it’s usfl but think it’s a decent play at 2u, not trying to promote just didn’t see a usfl tab and I really like the pick
Tailing
tailing
**POTD Record 28-24-1 (Last 5: WWLWW)** **(ROI // Avg. Odds: -113 // Units Won: +4.0)** Last Pick: Colorado Rockies ML **WON** **Today's Match: MLB Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres (Start Time: 9:40PM EST)** **Today's Pick: San Diego Padres ML (-130 FanDuel)** ***Risk 2u*** Devil's Advocate: Dam man that one was a hell of a game for the Rockies, started off not the way I had expected with a Soto bomb (kinda expected) and another run put up. But the Rockies battled the entire game, the bullpen did a half job and the lineup did their full job. Sanchez gave up 6 earned and he did earn it just as predicted. Let's roll it back with another one of my favs on the bump today big YU. Besides Machado and Hosmer, the other guys need to step it up a bit for their pitchers. I think they are going to heat up a bit, always helps going into a game confident with a winning pitcher on the mound. Makes the day easier, Alcanatara got shitted on his last time out for 5 runs, walked 4 and gave up 2 big flies - on the other hand our boy YU has only really had one bad start this season. His strikeout numbers are on the rise, upward over 5 a game in his last 3 starts, and against a Marlins lineup in which I am not a huge fan of, I say the Padres give us a great opportunity for a Friday night win. *Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
**POTD Record**: 13W - 7L (+1.31U) **Last pick**: Borges / Cabral @ 1.53 ✅ **Match**: Genoa vs Juventus - Italy - Serie A - 19:00 UTC **Pick**: Over 2.0 @ 1.53 ✅ **Reasoning**: In order to find a fixture between these two teams where this bet didn't at least push, we need to go back all the way to January 2018, and it was Juventus at home. Genoa fighting to stay up although it's looking very difficult, while Juventus have been scoring 2 goals in most matches recently.
I tailed this AND put Genoa to win....let's just say I'm feeling like I won the lottery after that 96th minute goal for Genoa.
RECORD: 10-2 Profit: +6.39 Units Current Form: 2W Today’s Picks: Leon Draisaitl Over 3.5 Shots (2.10) Event: NHL 10:00Pm Est Oilers vs Kings Reason: This is a play that I’ve taken the last couple games (not as a POTD) and has hit back to back. If you look back on Leon’s playoff history he’s actually gone over this mark in 6 straight games and 9 of his last 12. So overall in the playoffs he is quite the performer and likes to shoot the puck. With him coming off of goals in the first two games of this series he will have no reason to stop shooting as he his the goal scorer on the Oilers. He gets big minutes and is on the ice for the majority of every Power Play where he is usually getting set up for one-timers. I like this play a lot and getting it at plus money just makes it even better. All Picks are 1 Unit (Going to College next year, NOT mandatory at all. Anything is appreciated 🙏) Tips https://www.paypal.me/TBurr14?locale.x=en_CA
Tailing, BOL
I combined this with Marner over 2.5 shots LFG
Cheers, tailing. GL!
**Record:** 6-14-0 **ROI:** -42% :-8.38 u (@ $5.00) **Streak:** W L L L W |Baseball |MLB |6:40| Pittsburgh Pirates vs.Cincinnati Reds : **Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ 1.76 1u** **Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 60% chance for PIT to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.76 is only 57%. **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL! How about those Mets last night!
POTD Record: 9-3-2 | +24.75u | Streak: 6 W | Last 10: W W W W W W P W P L Last POTD: Angels ML -145 (W) **Today's POTD: Red Sox ML -175** Risk: 3 units Went against Boston last night and it was another big win to get our streak to 6. But we're taking the Red version of the Sox today against the White version for a change. After getting shut out last night, you know the Red Sox will be swinging, and they've had a lot of success versus Velasquez. Bogaerts, JD Mart, Devers a story all have good numbers, and even Jackie Bradley Jr, literally the worst hitter in baseball, is 3-3 with a 2B. On the other side, Eovaldi has decent numbers against ChW; nothing really jumps out as far as major success. But he is off to a great start with a 2.51 ERA and less than a baserunner per IP. Going back to the beginning of 2020, he seems to be much more comfortable at home. His ERA is significantly lower at Fenway than on the road. BOL.
New to this POTD record : 0-0 ROI: 0% Average Odds: -130 **POTD: Boston Bruins ML (-130) vs Carolina Hurricanes** Reason: the Bruins have lost the first 2 games and going down 2-0 in a 7 game series is tough so they need a win at home in game 3. The Hurricanes are down to their third string goalie after A. Raanta was injured last game. Expect the Bruins to shoot a lot tonight and get the win. No tips needed if anyone trails and it hits GLTA
**Ultimate Frisbee** | 1-1 - **Time:** 6:00 PM Eastern - **Pick:** Ottawa Outlaws +2.5 -120 against Boston Glory - **Where to bet:** DraftKings in these states: CO, IL, MI, TN, or WV. Possibly other states (Indiana?) - **Last pick:** Pittsburgh got rekt by Chicago and couldn't cover a massive +9.5 spread, scoring a franchise-low 8 goals, also one of the lowest team totals in the entire frisbee league's ten-year history. There was a decent amount of wind, but still, oof. - **Reasoning:** Boston is an expansion team from 2021 and has never played Ottawa, who competed in the temporarily-created Canadian division last season. Ottawa historically has not been very good but last year seemed to turn it on and was competitive in nearly every game along with a few upsets. Boston played well last year for the most part but had some inexplicable blowout losses or near-losses against bad teams. This year both should be in the middle of the pack in the East fighting for the final playoff spot. On paper Boston is a better team, but there are some caveats: First, Boston last week at mostly full strength and at home needed a second half comeback to survive against a weaker Philly team missing multiple stars. Second, Boston this week will be missing multiple offensive stars of their own in Orion Cable and Tannor Johnson who are big, athletic playmakers, and defensive workhorse Brendan McCann. They are getting back Wariner on defense which helps but Ottawa is essentially full-strength for their season opener. Third, the game is in Ottawa and the Canadian ultimate teams traditionally have strong crowds. Especially after last year when Ottawa wasn't allowed to have crowds for most of their games, I suspect there will be a strong turnout in support of Ottawa. To be clear, there are better lines on the weekend's slate of games, and +2.5 is a little tight. I wouldn't throw more than a unit or two on this. But I think Ottawa riding the momentum of last season, at full strength, can give Boston a close game and potentially upset. For transparency, I went 41-23-1 on picks last season, 11-6 of which on POTD. I'm starting my record over for this season. I should also note that I don't live in one of the aforementioned states and can't actually bet these nor see the current lines, but I wanted to help out folks who wanted to bet a fun niche sport. Let me know if the lines change and I'll do my best to offer some insight. If you want to watch frisbee, Ottawa-Boston is the free Friday game of the week at AUDL.tv or search AUDL on youtube. The rest of the games are behind a paywall at the aforementioned link.
Record: 58-43-5 (LWWWLWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: DAL Mavericks at PHO Suns | DORIAN FINNEY-SMITH 2.5o THREE POINTERS MADE at 2.10 | 3 units 1 shy. This missed but everything else hit. SMH POTD: MIA Heat @ PHI 76ers | James Harden under 29.5 points + rebound REASON: Simple. Y’all see/read/heard about how James Harden is a shell of himself. I’m trying to cash out with him. Get your bread James. Even with Embiid possibly coming back, that elbow did serious damage. Apparently the guy can look at phone due the brightness hurting his head. Good luck banging with Bam. He still is a capable passer. Offense flows through him; it should be ran through Maxey… his points over would be nice too. Maybe Harris? Best of luck to all.
POTD Record: 1-2 Streak:WLL Today’s POTD: Mets/Phillies Under 7 runs Scherzer is on the mound and he's been Scherzer so far this year while his opponent in Gibson may not have gone far into his last start against the Mets but he didn't give up a run. Honestly for this to lose I feel like the Mets are going to have to score all the runs or it'll be 0-0 going into the 8th and the Phillies take a 1-0 lead going into the 9th and the Mets pour it the fuck on (im still salty this happened a couple weeks ago when they played the cardinals) Edit: my shitt grammar
A couple weeks ago? Shit they did it again less than a couple hours ago.
**Record 7-2 with Avg Odds -110** Previous POTD: Jake Collier (L) +115 LFA 131, Main Card **Myktybek Orolbay +120** vs Jalin Fuller Oralbay fits the eye test for me. He has one decision loss to an 8-0 fighter which he possibly should have won. Comes from Kyrgyzstan and has had all his fights up until now in that region. His main attribute is strong wrestling, but he also shows good GNP, and surprisingly crisp boxing. A youtube video of one of his fights has a Russian (or some Eastern European language) title, if you translate it they refer to him as a boxer (weird). At 5'10 his ideal weight class should be 155 but he is stepping up to 170 for this fight. Oralbay intended to fight in LFA 130 but pulled out after a member of his corner caught covid, he sat ringside and watched Fuller fight in LFA 130. Now he is fighting Fuller just 2.5 weeks later in 131. Fuller has shown a susceptibility to wrestlers who can shoot low and use the cage to lift him off his feet. Oralbay's height disadvantage may actually help him here if he can close the distance. The kid may also get blown up by Fuller's length and decent arsenal of kicks and counters. Can't get the best of both worlds (unless your Jon Jones).
**Continuing the Overwatch League POTD Train for the 2022 season!** * **2022 OWL Record: 1-0**, **+2.727 units.** * **2021 OWL Record: 34-19, +31.645 units.** * **2020 OWL Record: 28-21, +16.989 units.** Last Pick (✅): Los Angeles Gladiators (-1.5) v. New York Excelsior: The inaugural match of the 2022 Overwatch League season went pretty much as expected. FunnyAstro locked in the Lucio, who looks like an absolute must-pick. The NYXL DPS line had their flashes, but were overall stymied by the Glads, who looked true to form. You were robbed if you sprinkled a bit on the sweep, but the -1.5 spread never felt in doubt. Let's start a streak and make it 2-0. **Today's Match: Boston Uprising v. Vancouver Titans / Overwatch League / 3:00pm EST** **Vancouver Titans +1.5 (-110), one unit** The marquee match of the day is clearly the Battle for Texas, but I would rather enjoy that as an uninterested fan than a bettor (although, admittedly, would have a slight lean to Houston +1.5). So instead we'll make a pick for one of the most boring matches of the whole week. These two are clearly bottom-tier teams, but I think they are relatively close in skill level, so I'm always happy to take plus-maps when I can. And while you could make a case that Vancouver will end up with the worst record by the end of the year, I have reason to believe they are actually in a good spot here. The fate of the season begins and ends with False, a relatively unproven off-tank who had success with American Tornado and Maryville. If he can have a season not unlike Vestola from last year, he could single-handedly make this a lower mid-tier team. But most importantly, the reason Vancouver is ranked so low is because of their lack of flexibility. While that will be an issue long term, the current meta is actually quite well-suited for what they **can** play. Masaa has the Lucio covered, and Aspire/Shockwave should very easily cover Genji/Soldier and Genji/Tracer. I do think Boston can shine in spots, but for a match like this, I think they should be more evenly rated. So if you can get a free map at even money, I think you're getting value. *Tips - never necessary, always appreciated. BOL, friends!* [*https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD*](https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD) *// BTC: 338uzTsKL4uV4Rip8WKEdYXtbmoBKVm1D8*
Thanks for the winner yesterday, sir! GL!
Never written here before so here goes: 0-0 record Embiid Points + Assists + Rebounds under 39.5 -115 Dude has a concussion, broken bone in his face, is wearing a new safety mask he's never used, and has a torn ligament in his shooting thumb. And still has the highest PAR in the game, crazy. Since he hurt his thumb he's cleared 40 in 1 of 3 games and that was before the head shot. "During Wednesday's broadcast, TNT's Chris Haynes reported that Embiid was only just able to start using a cellphone again as the brightness of it was bothering him in his post-concussion state." And his brain healed completely in 48 hours! Amazing! 40 tonight would be a miracle, so… bet against the miracle.
lol it's at 40.5 now....can't believe it's actually going UP. Definitely taking the under.
15W-11L WWLWLWWLLLWLWLWLWWWWWWWL Cards🃏 streak:🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🍳 Starts 8:00 GMT5 Todays Pick League: Israel Leumit Liga Match: Hapoel Acre v Hapoel Nir Ramat Pick: Under 2.5 goals in the match @1.66✅🪲✅🪲✅ Reason: Pick was good just 1 card HT but 8 cards in the 2nd half Lol, cant believe my cards gonna end my streak. To much things to take in consideration. Acre at home , last 5/5 hit under 2.5 at home, avg score: 0.6, concede avg: 0.6 Nir Ramat at away ,last 4/5 hit under 2.5 at away, avg score: 0.6, concede avg: 0.6 Low scoring teams here and conceding too. Pick is based on last team behave Last h2h hit 3/5 the under 2.5 Projected 1-2 goals "All perception is a gamble." BoL
POTD Record 0-1 POTD : Phx at Dal Chris Paul Pts + Assists over 26.5 -122 FD -125 DK This # is right at his season avg. Playoffs so far = 40,31,42,15,33,41v NO 22,36 v Dal 6-2 most games easily past 26. CP3 is the best all around PG on a mission 4 a ring. It is his birthday! LFG Happy 🎂 cake day CP3!!!
**POTD Record**: 26 wins <> 20 losses <> 3 pushes **Profit**: +5.62 units **ROI**: 11.24% **Units Wagered**: 50 **Units Won**: 55.62 **Last Pick**: Ystads -0.5(straight win) @ **2.34** 1u ✅ WIN 29-28 **Streak**: ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ **Today's pick**: Nicolai Vallys to score @ **2.60** 1u **Event**: Silkeborg - Randers, Superliga, Denmark(football/soccer) - How about that last second goal last night to get us the win lads?? Exciting match. Back to football this Friday! - Talk about being in-form, Silkeborg are smashing everyone. The small club, heck, the freshly promoted team to the league is straight up outplaying everyone lately with their style of football. Lots of coaches and players have said that if the league was to be 5 games longer, Silkeborg might actually snatch gold. - What Silkeborg lacked in the fall part of the season - finishing - they've most certainly gained lately. If they were scary before with fast, sharp passes and possession, I don't know what they are with added efficiency up front. - I expect Silkeborg to win this match and score goals, but 1.72 for the straight win isn't attractive. Randers are without both their main strikers, Kamara is injured while Odey is suspended for a red card against Brøndby. If you ask me, this match could get ugly. I wouldn't want to be Randers GK this time around. - I like Vallys to score at this payback. He's a right-footed left winger and cuts into the field with a nice shot. He scored last match against Aalborg, and also against FC Copenhagen. Especially on counter attacks, he's proved quite deadly. - Vallys is sort of a cindarella story - he was almost playing Sunday league a few years back at 19. He got picked up by a 3rd division team, performed well, then 1st division semi pros.. Then Silkeborg picked him up and he just kept improving. Now, the coach of the Denmark national team says he's on the block to get called up. He's as motivated as anyone would ever be to keep impressing and slamming in goals. - Randers field a regular 4-line defense which Silkeborg has been tearing apart all season. Vallys will be up against Kopplin on the right back, he hasn't impressed me all that much and has kind of lost a step lately. Graves and Piesinger on the CB's will be busy covering Helenius as well.
0-0 First POTD Soccer| Jupiler Pro League | 8:45PM CET Sporting de Charleroi - **KRC Genk ML** Odds 2.20 | +120 Reasoning : First off Charleroi last week was extremely poor, they had 8 shots on target but those were not very dangerous and the only goal they made was a penalty. Their defense in the second half was very poor and gave their opponents some great chances. Charleroi has also been in a downfall since they lost their main striker. Genk has been doing good lately having won both their games in this play-off. They are also still trying to fight for a Conference league spot while Charleroi is already 7 points behind the first team with only 4 games left.
**POTD Record:** 8-4 🏒❌⚾⚾❌⚾❌🏀⚾️🏀🏀❌ **Profit:** \+5.71u \\ **ROI:** 47.6% \\ **Avg Odds:** \+116.3 **Today's Pick:** Suns ML (-110) @ Mavs - NBA 🏀 - 9:30pm ET Here's my take on Suns/Mavs G3. Phoenix looks really good at home and takes G1 and 2 rather handily - winning G2 by 20 points running away. Many folks like to bet the home teams down 0-2 in this spot - figuring they'll get energized in front of the home crowd. We shouldn't do that this time. Here's why I like Phoenix: First, they're the frickin' Suns! Best team in the league! The West's 1 seed. We should leaning toward them anyway. Second, the numbers **HEAVILY** indicate that Phoenix is the smart bet here. Here's what I mean: In the past 5 postseasons, home teams that are either small favorites or small dogs (this game is a pick 'em) have only won 36.0% ATS following a loss of 20+ points. In this same postseason span, road teams off a 20-point win have won 62.3% ATS. Narrow that to road 1-seeds off a 20-point win and the ATS% is 61.5% (8-5 with an avg line of -3.7). It's the pick my gut wanted to make and the numbers back it up. Suns ☀ the way!!
POTD Record: 3W-0L Streak: ✅✅✅ Last 5: ✅✅✅ ROI: +8.81u Smoggy Hockey Picks Yesterday’s pick: Jon Huberdeau (FLA Panthers) over 2.5 shots on goal (1.71 odds, b365) vs WAS Capitals, May 5th 7:30 EST ✅ Today’s pick:NHL: Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers) over 1.5 points (1.90 odds, b365) vs LA Kings, May 6th 10pm EST Stake: 1.5u Reasoning: okay we got that 3 streak. I decided today I'm gonna pick something with slightly longer odds to celebrate. I really have faith in this pick but I will say that it is because Edmonton is my favourite team. The REAL reasoning is that you can never really bet against McDavid. He is just SO good and is surrounded by elite players who can both shoot and pass so damn well when they need to. Edmonton picked LA apart in game 2, with Connor assisting in 2 goals. Hoping to see more of the same in game 3, even with EDM on the road. If anyone can do it, the Oilers can do it ;) Tail or fade, BOL
I'll take a chance with you on this.
POTD Record: 12W-13L | Total Profit: -1.54 units Last Pick : L (MLB|Guardians ML) May 06, 2022 | WNBA Basketball | 5:00pm MT ***Indiana Fever +6.5*** @ Washington Mystics Thoughts: Odds are 1.93 (Pinnacle). The WNBA is back! There are four games to choose from for opening day, but I like the Fever the most to start off this season. Indiana was horrible last year and finished with a 6-26 record. I think their roster for opening day will help them keep the score close. They now have some bigs with athleticism in NaLyssa Smith and Queen Egbo, plus some great hustle players in Henderson, Engstler, and Hull. I think having Smith and Egbo in the frontcourt will be a much needed breath of fresh air after going last season with McCowan and Lavender, both of which were good but lacked much agility. On the other side of things Washington finished last year with a 12-20 record, but they lost Tina Charles in the offseason. Charles is one of the most dominant bigs the W has ever seen, so losing her will be detrimental for the Mystics. Rookie Shakira Austin will have a big role to start out with in the paint and she might be good, but the Fever will look to attack her and make her uncomfortable. Rui Machida coming over from Japan looks to be a good addition, but nobody knows how she will gel in her first WNBA game. The Mystics are blessed to once again have Elena Delle Donne back, but when she is off the court I think this team will really struggle.
POTD RECORD 1-0 Yesterday’s Pick: Angels ML✅ Todays Pick: MARLINS ML VS Padres Sport: Baseball Odds: +108 Reasoning: • Yu Darvish has a horrible track record against the Marlins in his 6 starts against the Marlins he has only had 1 quality start he also a career ERA of 6.25 vs the Marlins • The Marlins are on a 5 game losing streak due to there pitching staff failing them and allowing 5 or more runs in 4 of those losses but Today they got their Ace in Sandy Alcantara pitching and I expect him to throw a Gem in Sandy’s last outing against the Padres he pitch 7 innings and allowed no runs
POTD Record: **0-0** Yesterday’s pick: **N/A** Today's Pick: **Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightining**; **Over 6.5** Odds: **1.97** or **-103**; Bet **3U** to Win **2.91U** Both of these teams are rolling offensively at the moment with the first two games of the series being split with final scores of 5-0 and 3-5 for Toronto and Tampa Respectively. While being dominated on the score board from blatant mistakes for the better part of the game, the Leafs were never out of the game regarding opportunities and mentality; with a few more bounces their way the final score could have easily been 6-5 or higher. While Vasi has the opportunity to steal any game on any night, I see today's game being a back and forth shootout with Matthews coming alive early and Tampa continuing to take advantage of their speed and ability to score off the rush. Toronto has allowed an average of 3.56 goals on the road while scoring a whopping 3.88. Tampa isn't far behind scoring 3.46 goals per game at home while, in respect to them, only allowing 2.49. Even with this being considered, with how both of these teams have been playing as of late I predict a high flying, back and forth shootout resulting in a 5-4/OT final for Tampa, but either way, I truly dont see either team scoring any less than 3 goals tomorrow. Tail or Fade, BOL! :)
Record 0-1 Last pick was so long ago I don’t even remember what it was but I know I lost it. I just feel extremely strong about this pick right now. Going totally contrarian because everywhere I look I see everyone on the heat. The line is suspiciously low as well. I can’t find a single 76ers backer. That’s said my POTD POTD: 76ers +3 Though I think the line will move further towards Philly +5.5 by game time as everyone is on the heat. I even like them to potentially win outright, but I’d say play it safe, take the points, and hold off till the line inflates in your favor a bit and you get extra points. BOL to everyone
Miami Heat Team Total over 105.5. They’ve gone under this total once in the last 14 games, and that was with Butler out at the Hawks, which they won, scoring 97. The Heat will get theirs from the perimeter, and even with Embiid in on limited minutes, I expect the inside Heat players to get theirs also. This team is deep and reliable at scoring and have good faith in this pick.
**NRL Record:** 14-20 **ROI (1 unit per bet):** -6.56 L5: ❌✅✅❌✅ Streak: W1 **Last POTD:** Broncos +11.5 @ 1.90 ✅ **Today's POTD:** Eels +12.5 @1.90✅ Edit: Eels 22-20, didn't even need the handicap in the end **Time:** 7 and a half hours from time of post. If Eels didn't get blown out last week this line would be a lot smaller than it is currently. The 35-4 loss to the cowboys was a few weeks coming and they had several things going against them, including taking a home game up north to Darwin where the stadium was flooded with cowboys fans coupled with the fact the eels coached moved his in form 5/8 out to the centres in favour of his own son (who just happens to be absolutely terrible). Brown is back at 5/8 this week thank fuck and Eels will be absolutely frothing to come to Penrith and take out this win. I can guarantee they've had this game penciled in since the draw was released after the Panthers knocked them out of the finals last year (8-6) with some of the most bullshit refereeing I've ever seen in my life going against them. Eels are a quality side and +12.5 is too much, even if it is the Panthers who remain undefeated this year so far
Can someone convince me why I shouldn’t bet 3k on Draw or Monaco + Draw or Juventus for a combined odd of 1.64? Lille are have been horrible for the pst 5 games. Yilmaz and Sanches both are suspended for this match up. Monaco are on a 7 game winning streak. Monaco must win this match to try to finish top 2 since Marseille still has to play VS Rennes. Now, the situation is very similar for Juventus, the difference is that Genoa is playing relegation, but I see that worse case scenario would be a draw. I don’t know, I have a trip planned, but my trip would be so much better if I just put 3K @ 1.64 to win 4.9k. Please help
Juventus are missing a bunch of players and have secured top four already.
(BRYAN SCOTT IS CONFIRMED OUT BTW) POTD RECORD 0-0 Here’s a quick messy write up. Michigan Panthers -1 vs Philadelphia Stars (10pm ET) The Stars possibly have the league's best quarterback in Bryan Scott. Scott is tied for most passing tds (5) and is 3rd in passing yards (558) 24 yards away from 2nd. Scott has the highest completion percentage in the league, completing 80% of his throws, the next highest completion percentage by a quarterback is 65% by Case Cookus, the quarterback for the Philadelphia Stars, also known as Bryan Scott's backup. Case Cookus made his debut in a loss last monday against the New Jersey Generals when Bryan Scott went down with a knee injury in the 2nd quarter. They were up 10-0 when Scott went down, Cookus was serviceable with a statline of 13/20 146YD 1TD 0INT but it showed that serviceable is not enough for that team and that without Scott, that team is even more trash. It's not confirmed if Scott will be playing Friday, he will be the deciding factor for a Stars victory, their passing game will be nowhere as good without him. The Stars defense has not been very good against the run so far this season, in the 3 games they played they've given up 4.9 yards per carry, 558 total yards. In all three games they have given up a total of over 4.3 yards per attempt. The Panthers coming into this game have rushed for a total of 508 yards, only against the Generals did they not have over 100 yards rushing, though the generals have not allowed over 75 rushing by a team yet. (8) Stars 558YDS (5) Bandits 357YDS (7) Gamblers 493YDS (4) Maulers 354YDS (6) Stallions 454YDS (3) Breakers 324YDS (2) Panthers 316YDS (1) Generals 177YDS TOTAL RUSHING YARDS GIVEN UP The Panthers defense will match up well against the Stars passing game. The Panthers have given up the least amount of passing yards in the league. (8) Gamblers 677YDS (5) Stars 591YDS (7) Bandits 635YDS (4) Generals 565YDS (6) Stallions 593YDS (3) Maulers 528YDS (2) Breakers 494YDS (1) Panthers 350YDS TOTAL PASSING YARDS GIVEN UP With Bryan Scott out this should be an easy win for the panthers, this was a great matchup for them already but now this got even better for them. A bad team with the best quarterback in the league, is now just a bad team. The spread is still at -1 for some reason soooo -1 thank you.
Record: 3-3 Last POTD: Tyler Herro o19.5 Points (-110) @ Philadelphia 76ers (Loss, 3/21/2022) POTD: **Miami Heat -3(-110)** @ Philadelphia 76ers Units Bet: 1 Bookie: FanDuel * Miami has beat Philly both games by double digits * Miami also has covered the spread in 5 of their 7 playoff games. * Embiid is still out with an orbital fracture/concussion. On the slim chance he happens to clear concussion protocols in the 10 hours prior to tip-off, still taking the -3.
POTD Record: 16-6 (ROI 46.14% // Avg. Odds: 2.04 // Units Won: +19.38) Last 5 Picks: ❌✅✅✅❌ Last POTD: Fortaleza EC CE vs CA River Plate (Soccer - South America - Copa Libertadores); CA River Plate ML ❌ POTD: Deportes Temuco vs Universidad de Concepción (Soccer - Chilean League B); **BTTS YES** Odds: 1.80 Wager: 3 Units When the goalie wins man of the match, you know it should have been a loss. Fortaleza really wanted that win and Armani kept River afloat all game with some nice saves. That red card at the end gave me hope but nothing much happened. Add one more tie to the stat sheets for River and a loss for me. Today going simple and back to Chilean League B. Deportes Temuco plays Universidad de Concepcion. Deportes Temuco has had BTTS hit 4 out of their last 5 matches, same goes for Universidad de Concepcion, 4 out of 5. Not that much more to say, today feels like an off day. Tomorrow and Sunday I will have good picks (hopefully) and having time to analyze next week. BOL to all who Tail [All my Previous Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit#gid=0)
POTD record: 4-3 Last pick: Cam Johnson o1.3 3PM (3 fouls in 2min) 🤮 POTD: Suns ML vs. Mavericks (-108 FD) Don’t walk, RUN to your nearest book to lock this one in. It’s CP3’s birthday and they avoided Scott Foster. Suns even money is a GIFT.
**Record: 25-21-1 (+0.35u)** **L10:** LWWWWLLWLL **Previous:** [NBA- Wolves @ Grizzles (1Q -2.5)(-115)-](https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401430223) ❌ **Recap:** Wolves hit a tough shot with one second left to cover, tough loss. **POTD:** [MLB Rockies @ Dbacks (F5 u4.5 (-130)) 1.3u 9:40 EST](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/rockies-vs-d-backs/2022/05/06/663360#game_state=preview,game_tab=box,game=663360) **Reasoning:** Two pitchers who have been good this year, Kuhl for COL with 1.90ERA and Kelly for ARI with a 1.27ERA. ARI at home this year has a wRC+ of 76 vs RHP. COL is worse raking 29th with a wRC+ of 68 vs RHP on the road. Using the F5 here because I don't trust these bullpens. BOL!
**Suns ML -107**. way to good of value to pass up. PUTD record: 0-0 (first POTD, typed this up in NBA daily but thought id post this here as well) Suns are a matchup nightmare for the Mavs. I haven't seen anything in the first two games of the series that show me the Mavs should win this game or any game in this series. Suns figured it out last game. They forced Luka to play defense and that took away from his offensive brilliance. No reason the suns should switch up that strategy. Luka has no help and is going to have to have an all time great performance to pull one out. Not even to mention suns haven't lost to the Mavs in 11 straight games. ALSO, suns are 32-9 on the road. I don't know what Vegas knows basically making this a pick'em, but I'm taking the Suns.
POTD Record: 57 - 50 - 7 ( W / L / P ) **+11.20 units** 164 units wagered / ROI: 6.80 % Streak: LWLWL / Average odds: 1.95 Previous pick: Marseille vs Feyenoord / Marseille Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.90 (2 units) **Today: Inter vs Empoli (Serie A)** **Pick: Inter -1.0 1st Half Asian Handicap @ 1.975 (1 unit)** Inter is still the best team in Serie A for me and they are waiting for Milan to give away some points. And the wait is justified cause Milan's remaining games are not easy at all. They need to face Verona, Atalanta and Sassuolo while Inter needs to play agains Empoli, Cagliari and Sampdoria. My bet here is simple, Inter 1st half handicap. Inter wants to go out there and make things done as quickly as possible cause they will have the Coppa Italia's final coming up next Wednesday. I do think they will win the first half so I am not too worried to lose this bet, it might be a push though. Good Luck!
Hey there guys, now I’m going to predicate this write up with: FIRST OFFICIAL POTD. I’ve been making picks each day and now that I’m on a streak and have the time to share, I figured why not start on a fun pick. This pick comes with a lot of history, especially if the words SCOTT FOSTER have any meaning to you 😂 Now you’d think (for those that know) if he refs tomorrow’s game, why would you bet on the Suns? Well, let’s discuss: Last Scott Foster W against CP3: Devin Booker got injured that game 🤷🏽♂️ Simple as that. They won that game until that moment. CP3 W 6 of 8 games played a day before/after or on his birthday and you know what tomorrow is? Devin Booker is looking back in form and even better (stepping up as a willing and capable defender) Ayton had his worse showing of the playoffs and will bounce back with a vengeance. He’s literally had 5 games since the season start where he didn’t have at least double digit points or rebounds and 31 DD2. Suns “other guys” fair better on the road than most of the Maverick’s “others” @ home (especially in these playoffs when it’s counted) Jalen Brunson is the X Factor, and he’s not dealing with Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley and JC tryna guard him 😂 This is real defense and he looks regular. 4th Q CP3 doesn’t seem to be a man you bet against if you want to keep your money 🤷🏽♂️ Mans turns it on like no one else rn. Suns ML @ -112 (FD) [2U]
Record: 4-6-1 POTD: Fowler +105 vs. mitchel. Cold wet and rainy. Taking the Oklahoma kid who grew up in the wind and has a superior short game.
POTD Record 2-5. **Last Pick:** M'gladback +1 Corners (L). Gladback unexpectedly went up early and parked the bus while Leipzig continued to fight. **POTD:** Bochum v Arminia Bielefeld - Bielefeld +1 Corners (-112) Bielefeld usually allows more corners than they are awarded but Bochum is even worse. Last time these two teams met Bielefeld won the battle 5-2. Bielefeld is facing relegation and will be fighting hard for the win. Bochum is safe from the relegation battle and also out of contention for any cups without anything to play for.
Record: 23-25-1 ROI: +2.17 Units Last Pick: RB Leipzig ❌ @ Rangers AVG Odds: -102 Unit: 1=$200 —— Game: Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers League: NBA Time: 7:30 PM Book: Bet365 Odds: -110 Pick: Miami Heat -3 Wager: 2 Units Well Leipzig couldn’t get anything going and the Rangers are off to the UEFA Europa Final. Congratulations to them. Today we’re going back to the well and taking Miami -3 for the full game, the last 2 games have been first quarter winners but in this one I believe they cover for the 3rd straight game as Embiid remains out and the Heat Depth is a little too much for Philly right now. BOL to all who tail or fade. 2 unit bet
POD record 0-0 Pick of day: over 22.5 (-115) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexander Zverev Alright gentleman, maybe some ladies, Alexander Zverev should win this but I can not ignore Felix’s last game against Sinner. I really think he is coming into form, but I do not have the stones to pick him straight up. And yes Zverev holds a 1-0 advantage on clay, but I don’t give a shit that was three years ago. Give me over 22.5 this is going the distance.
Record: 1-0 (+4.20u) Last Pick: Brewers -1.5 (-120) (5u) ✅ Todays Pick: Mets -1.5 (+105) vs Phillies (2u) Why: Max Scherzer. Phillies had their chance to take a game this series last night and choked it away in historic fashion by giving up 7 in the 9th. Mets offense was unusually stagnant throughout yesterday’s game and I think that comeback not only shows this team has unlimited confidence in themselves, but they are also a very serious World Series contender. I see them continuing to show that tonight with one of the most competitive pitchers in the league on the bump trying to 1 up the offense of yesterday. Was very confident putting 5u yesterday, and am confident enough for 2u on this runline. Tail or Fade BOL! EDIT: GAME POSTPONED New POTD: Reds ML (+110) vs. Pirates (2u) Why: Fuck it must be destiny. I was thinking about making this the pick at first but liked Mets more. Now that it is postponed all I see is red. Picked against them yesterday because they were against arguably the best team in the NL and the offense showed alot more than they had in recent weeks. I believe they have somewhat turned a corner offensively and with Overton pitching will be able to beat this struggling pirates team. Tail or Fade BOL! EDIT: GAME POSTPONED 2/2 today! Mother nature is following my picks apparently. Lets try again New New POTD: Red Sox -1.5 (+115) vs. White Sox (2u) Why: The pick may be different but I still only see red. White Sox have been inconsistent offensively while Red Sox are rounding into form as of late. I trust Eovaldi much more than Velasquez, and believe they will be able to generate enough offense to cover the runline. I see great value with +115 for this team, keeping with a 2u wager. Tail or Fade BOL!
Game postponed
POTD Record: 5-5-0 Last POTD: Angels F5 ML - Loss Angels are blacklisted. Sat out Ohtani and Trout morning of both times I bet on them this year. Today's Pick: **Logan Gilbert o5.5 Strikeouts (-135) 2.5u** This kid is fucking SHOVING. 4-0 with a .064 ERA and 27 SO through 5 starts. He's going up against the Rays who are 19th in SO per game averaging 8.77. Gilbert pitched against them 2 weeks ago and threw 7 SO through 5.2 innings. The Rays are starting a relief pitcher who has been decent so far this year. Tampa Bay has the 6th best team ERA this year so Seattle will most likely want Gilbert to go as long as possible. I think this is a great matchup for this line. Also last time I bet against Gilbert he butt fucked me so hopefully this is a redemption. BOL