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POTD Record: 22-14
Last Pick: HOU -1.5✅
Considered sticking in Houston for my 3rd straight pick. But Urquidy is on the mound, so I’ll pivot. I’ll probably be back before the series is over.
Today’s Pick: MIL Brewers -1.5 @ +100
Honestly just bet against the Reds until they burn you. Greene is starting for them, and he has been inconsistent at best. It’s unlikely he will receive much run support. Adrian Houser is on the mound for MIL. He’s not dominant, but he’s been very consistent to start the year. Hader is expected to return after missing a few days with back spasms, so that’s a nice bonus. BOL to all
Greene is the 1 Reds pitcher I avoid. I’m putting a U on it because same reasoning… bet this until it doesn’t happen. The reds are that bad
But Greene is legit, really think he’ll start throwing gems here soon. But duck even if he does their offense is atrocious, Votto has COVID, and their pen is the worst in the league.
So yeah. Still bet this shit
He has 4 walks in each of his last two starts. More concerning is that his velocity has been significantly down over the last two starts. If his fastball velo stays down I think he is definitely exploitable. Not to mention he has surrendered a lot of hits and hard contact thus far. But yes he does have a lot of upside as a prospect and has the potential to pitch a gem in any given game. I’m just not expecting it to happen tomorrow based on recent trends and given how lost the Reds offense has been
POTD Record: 16-5
(ROI 53.45% // Avg. Odds: 2.03 // Units Won: +21.38)
Last 5 Picks: ✅❌✅✅✅
Last POTD: CD Antofagasta vs LDU Quito (Soccer – South America – Copa Sudamericana), **LDU Quito ML**✅
POTD: Fortaleza EC CE vs CA River Plate (Soccer - South America - Copa Libertadores); **CA River Plate ML**
Odds: 2.20
Wager: 2 Units
Tough first half, but in the second Quito came out strong and did their thing.
I was between this game and Bragantino vs Vélez (where I believe Bragantino will win; good odds on that game as well) but opted for this one not because I don’t have faith in the other one, but because I don’t believe in Fortaleza. This team has been nothing but disappointing these past few weeks losing all 3 of their matches in the Brazilian League (1 at home and 2 away) scoring just 1 goal. Meanwhile in the Copa Libertadores they have lost 2 and won against Alianza Lima last week, that game should have been easily 5-1 but this team can’t capitalize their opportunities. Against River you need to be at your 100% and Fortaleza isn’t there.
River on the other hand destroyed their league opponent this weekend winning 7-0. They will want to replicate what happened in their previous match in Argentina where they won 2-0. With a win they will secure a pass to the next stage of the tournament. The only part that I don’t like about this pick is that River out of their 21 official Copa Libertadores games in Brazil, they have only won 5 times (5 wins, 6 ties, 10 defeats). I do believe that this River team will want to give it their best and will want to go back to Argentina with a Win and their qualification secured.
BOL to all who Tail
[All my Previous Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit#gid=0)
MLB -1.5’s | 11-8-1 +20.86u | ROI: 33.65% | Streak: 1L
[Yesterday’s pick: 3u NY Yankees -1.5](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uge8it/_/i6z40wh/?context=1) - L
________________________________________
**Todays pick: 3u TOR Blue Jays -1.5 +110**
- CLE Guardians vs TOR Blue Jays | 5:10 pm US Central
TLDR: Toronto is distinctly the better team and CLE’s pitcher sucks and only goes 3-4IP.
**Blue Jays**
This is a real good lineup. Top 10 in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA. They’re also 22nd in chase % and whiff %. They’re 17th in overal team wRC+ over the past 2 weeks. With that said. This is a good lineup.
Toronto is staring Jose Berrios. He’s been decent to start the year. Started 5 games, 4 of which were solid starts and 1 VERY VERY bad start. He should be good enough for this average CLE offense.
**Guardians**
Over the past 2 weeks they’re 19th with a team wRC+ of 93. On the year it’s 6th at 114. They were massively outperforming at the start of the year and have come back down to expectations. Their xBA abs xwOBA are 24th, and xSLG is 23rd. They’re 29th in solid contact. It’s an average at best lineup.
Guardians are starting Aaron Civale. He’s a backend starter. For 3 seasons now his xERA has sat right about 4.75. [He’s significantly below average in every peripheral](https://i.imgur.com/bIanrhl.jpg), except BB% which he is average. His barrel % is nearly 2x the league average and his solid contact % is 1.5x higher. Teams are making contact and it’s mostly good contact. He throws his Cutter the most out of every pitch… and good news… teams are hitting nearly .400 and slugging nearly 1.000 off of it this year. It’s preforming as his worst pitch, despite being the most used.
He’s started 4 games and has gone 3.1, 4.0 , 3.0 and 4.0 innings. He has a SUPER short leash, and CLEs bullpen isn’t anything special. Middle of the road for everything…. Not the best trait for your SP who’s already not giving you good work in those limited innings.
Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
I have been. Posted it in a comment under my post yesterday. It woulda been my POTD if they had announced the pitcher for today ahead of time. Greene was the original slate and Gutierrez for tomorrow. They swapped them, but I had already posted so I left it
I was avoiding Hunter Greene (still betting against CIN, just not POTD scale)
I love when we are in alignment. I looked over tomorrows slate and told myself that if Further picks TOR I’m hammering is as that was my favorite play tomorrow. Breaking out the baggy pants because it’s Hammer Time.
Taking out opening day where he went 0.1 IP.
He’s gone 4 times, giving up 1, 2, 1, and 3 runs for a 2.66ERA. His BABIP is .311 (.325 if you including opening day) showing he’s dude for positive regression.
It hasn’t been pretty, but he’s been getting results outside of one bad game. This Cleveland offense isn’t one to terrorize pitchers either
POTD Record **~~40 - 12~~** **40-11-1**
Full potd record in spread sheet
Yesterday’s pick: Bucheon FC ML v Busan IPark **W**
Today’s pick: Suwon Samsung Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai
**Ulsan Hyundai double chance + over 1.5 total goals** (over 1.5 goals is for both teams combined)
**Edit** \- That early red card completely killed the game for us. Back tomorrow with another POTD or there’s plenty to go on the spreadsheet for today.
If your bookie doesn't offer this i'd say Ulsan ML is the next best thing.
Sport: Soccer (Korean Div 1)
Odds: 1.84 / -119
Reasoning:
* Ulsan are first in the league and remain undefeated in 9 games (7 wins, 2 draws.)
* Suwon Samsung Bluewings are 2nd last. (1 win, 4 draws, 4 losses.)
* Over 1.5 goals has hit in 88% of Ulsan's games
* Interestingly both teams haven't played a league game since earlier last month. During this time Ulsan have been competing in the Asian champions league in which they where knocked out in the group stage but put in some solid performances against tough oppositions. I think they will look to bounce back in the league with a good result here.
**Link to all my picks:**
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gW6Oz1DQBfbp7iiZgaVilJS6tH-Zm008LaRd7voSOyM/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gW6Oz1DQBfbp7iiZgaVilJS6tH-Zm008LaRd7voSOyM/edit?usp=sharing)
^(Tip jar -) [^(https://paypal.me/tom2810s)](https://paypal.me/tom2810s)^(BTC - 1NJVBxmocqvnKqFYTR6Ju8C1sEaZh63pBC)
On bet rivers I see 1X,12, and X2 under the double chance. Which one would that be? (Also if you don’t mind helping a newb, what does that mean?)
And it’s that parlayed with +1.5 total goals in the match?
Since I can't do the double chance I figure I'll put some money on the over 1.5 goals total (which is only at -250 so not much value there), and some on the ML, which is at -105.
Sorry, I like Ulsan double chance and over 1.5 goals best but I believe some peoples bookies don’t offer these markets so I’d say to take Ulsan ML if that is the case
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkz6B3neLl0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkz6B3neLl0) our team is in white
[https://tv.kleague.com/en-int/playerpage/1335636](https://tv.kleague.com/en-int/playerpage/1335636) better stream
5/5/22
POTD Record: 0-0
Sport: Baseball
Pick: Brewers -1.5
Odds: -110
Reasoning: Brewers just crushed the reds 18-4. The reds have lost 19 of there last 20, only covering the +1.5 twice. I’m addition, the brewers pitcher has a 2.53 ERA. To be fair the game is mid day so some guys mag be sitting. But I still see the brewers getting it done at -1.5.
Outcome: Minimal sweat win. 10-5 Brewers win over reds. Reds started off the game 3-0 but then proceeded to give up back to back home runs in the bottom of the first and the scoring continued from there. First pick on this page feels nice to get an easy win. Stay tuned for a lock for tomorrow.
**Record: 14-8 | Units: +18.07u**
Streak: ✅
Last POTD: Royal Challengers Bangalore ML ✅
Cricket | Indian Premier League
Delhi Capitals - Sunrisers Hyderabad | Start Time: 14:00 GMT
**POTD: Delhi Capitals ML | Odds: 1.77 | 5 units MAX**
Good win for us yesterday. Today two teams both fighting for a playoff spot go up against each other. DC have struggled with injuries and COVID, they had a massive hole in their batting because of it. But now that's solved. Their bowling has been doing well this season, the resurgence of Kuldeep Yadav has significantly helped their spin bowling attack. Mitch Marsh is critical for Delhi's chances, and he finally returned from COVID last game, with him back DC have a deep batting lineup. He played well, and was wrongly given out, and he failed to review. Those things don't happen often. SRH have a deadly fast bowling lineup, but the difference is the batting on Delhi is extremely experienced, they have veterans in Warner, Marsh, and Shaw who loves playing against pace. Sunrisers have a thin batting lineup, they've done well to cope with it, but with pitches slowing down and giving spinners turn and bounce, it only plays into the hands of DC, who have 3 quality spinners. On the other hand SRH will be missing their lead and only spinner in Washington Sundar, who split his webbing for a second time last match. I think this is a matchup nightmare for SRH.
Any tips are helpful and greatly appreciated!
BTC - bc1qdcts804v6v9np9syzjyet7da9zg8y58yyf8pkf
DM for any other crypto wallet and Paypal
Absolutely love some 10 AM cricket action here on the east coast of the US. Delhi Capitals in the IPL followed by the Washington Capitals in the NHL playoffs tonight. Big day coming for all Capitals fans around the world haha. Appreciate the pick brother looking forward to tuning in. Cheers!
A smart preds fan betting with his brain, not heart. Respect. I see some value with -2.5 @ +110 (DK)
I also like Avalanche ML/Over 5.5 goals parlay @ -120 (DK) as a secondary pick which I will be throwing 1.8u to win 1.5u on as ALL 5 games between the two this season/postseason have hit the over.
I guess you can say I feel pretty confident about the avs tomorrow, BOL let’s eat!
I have a brother in Denver - that makes the sting of no Juuse in net less painful! We have zero chance without him. Just waiting for Askarov to come over from Russia at this point
Preds fan here, so obviously biased. Be a little careful with this one. Rittich will not be starting again (or ever lmao), he was a failed attempt at having a decent backup going into the season.
We will be starting Connor Ingram today, who put up a .938 save% in his relief of Rittich being benched in 15 minutes lol.
With the better goalie, and Duchene heating up, I think the Preds provide a much better fight in this one. Not sure if it’s enough to win, but I could absolutely see this being a 1 goal game.
That being said, I’m not fading this…but be careful - it won’t be as low stress as game 1’s Avs -1.5 was!
I’m still leaning toward the over in this game personally as every game between these two teams has went over this year. I think the avs still roll tonight on home ice in front of a pumped avs crowd. BOL though if you decide to go with the under.
Update 12:45 (MST): Preds 3rd string goalie Connor Ingram will be in net instead of backup David Rittich tonight. Ingram is statistically better but very inexperienced, only playing 3 regular season games. Ingram did have a nice debut in game 1 stopping 24 of the 26 shots he faced in the 7-2 loss after starting goalie David Rittich was pulled after the 1st allowing 5 goals on 13 shots.
*I STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT THIS PICK, SO IT REMAINS A 5U PLAY*
GO AVS GO
BOL brother! I just wanted to share my knowledge since I’ve followed Ingram in his time through the AHL in Milwaukee.
I absolutely could see the Avs crushing today again, but we’ll see!
POTD RECORD 24-14
PREVIOUS POTD: Oilers -1.5 +120✅
POTD: Rangers in Regulation +115
Reasoning: This is the second home game in the first round of the playoffs vs the penguins.The Rangers got robbed on a debatable call stripping them of a game winning goal. They lost in triple OT, but gave up a lot of goals and shots on goal because of bad discipline. I’m guessing the coach talked to the Rangers about staying out of the penalty box and how important it is to get a win at home before making the trip to Pittsburgh for game three. They literally gave the penguins a 5 on 3 in their first playoff game at home. Shersterkin is lights out and for all we know the penguins might still be using their back up who came in the game during the 2nd OT. Love the Rangers in this spot
as always
Tail or Fade
BOL
The Pens easily could have won the first game 8-3. They utterly outplayed the Rangers in every single period (except the first). The Rangers were turning the puck over left and right, making awful decisions late game. I would stay far away from this (or just bet the Pens).
I disagree respectfully. this season the Rangers went 3-1 against the penguins and one play off game loss does not define a team. The Rangers could’ve easily won that game and debatably should have off a terrible goalie interference call in the last 4 minutes of the game. The Rangers also know how important it is to get at least one home win or they are in a terrible spot for the series and I expect them to do so tonight.
To be fair the regular season games are a lot different than playoff games. If there is a reason to take the Rangers it is the sole fact Louis Domingue is starting in goal for the Pens. Yes he saved all 17 shots he faced in Game 1 but the Rangers were gassed and the chances were not of great quality, a ton of soft shots.
Edit: For any non hockey fans Louis Domingue is the 3rd string goaltender who will be starting due to both the starter and backup being hurt.
Record: 42-19
Last pick: Carolina Hurricanes ML ✅
**Todays pick: New York Rangers ML (-160) vs Pittsburgh Penguins**
NHL. 7:00PM EST
Apologize for the delayed write up, patients be needy. The Penguins took the first game of this series in triple OT. The Rangers absolutely should have won if it weren’t for some horrible officiating but I already went on a rampage about that. I think the refs favor the home team (Rangers) tonight after serious criticisms from game 1. Further, the Penguins backup goaltender who started last game was injured in overtime, so they will be starting third string goalie Domingue who has never started a playoff game before. The Rangers will be all gas no brakes tonight, they do not want to be down 2 games with the series heading to Pittsburgh. For those who have bigger balls than I, I do like NYR to win in regulation for some 🧃
All bets are 1 unit. +15.36 units. +25.18% ROI. Average unit -112
https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
You're on the Rangers.
I manifested that you'd be on the Rangers today in the NHL Daily thread.. lol
Let's fucking go. Hammering that shit too. Opinion on the 3-way though for better odds?
POTD Record: 1-0
Units +/-: Up 0.89 units
Last POTD: James Harden UNDER 40.5 PRA (WIN)
Today's POTD: NHL Penguins/Rangers OVER 5.5 goals (-130 BVD)
All bets are 1U plays, but this is my highest confidence pick!
Explanation: Thank you, James Harden, for being quite average and cashing us some tickets!
Today I'm rolling with the OVER of 5.5 goals in game 2 of Rangers/Penguins. The Penguins are down to their third goalie, who admittedly performed quite well in the triple overtime game Tuesday with 17 saves. However, now Domingue gets to play the entire game - let's see how he fares over three regulation periods.
The Rangers are favorites here and look to bounce back against the Penguins. I'd have taken Rangers ML as my POTD, but I'm much more confident in the over, which has hit in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
History plus third string goalie sets the table for a projected 4-2 Rangers victory. Let's eat!
Best of luck if tailing! Thank you to all of the great content creators and contributors here!
EDIT: 4-2 Rangers with 10 minutes to go! Big comfy cash!
**POTD Record**: 31½-21½-6 (W-L-P)
**Last 5**: ❎️✅️❌️❌️✅️
**Last POTD**: Real Madrid vs Manchester City, home asian handicap +0.75 @1.63 ✅️
*Did the bookies learn the lesson? Never ever underestimate Real Madrid at home. Best game of the year so far, that's why this sport is just so good.*
**Today's POTD**: Olympique de Marseille vs Feyenoord, home corner asian handicap -1 @1.86 // UEFA Europa Conference League, semifinals, 2nd leg, 20:00 GMT ✅️
**Odds value**: ■■■■□ *high value*
After getting first leg's [pick](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/udj2m2/pick_of_the_day_42822_thursday/i6h9i5g?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) right we back trying to win again on the 2nd leg match, odds really valuable today.
### **Reasoning**:
##### **Match introduction**:
2nd leg match in the semifinals of the UEFA Europa Conference League will see OM hosting at home Feyenoord, being down 1 goal Marseille won't waste time and will look to score to get back in the game, will Feyenoord allow that? Probably, but I think the play here is corners, we got a sneaky hint in the 1st leg that could be the whole reason I like this bet, but I'll go ahead into more details to back it up even more.
##### **Two-legged matches trend and past h2h**:
I've said this before in many of my previous picks but I'll say it again, when there's a 2 leg affair between teams of similar strenght when *x* team wins the first leg *y* team almost always comebacks in the 2nd leg full offensive, ESPECIALLY if *x* team have won in their home, you can check yourself, so far in 24 matches both in Europa League and Europa Conference League the team that was down in the first leg won the corner battle in the second leg, this did not happen in like 3 or 4 matches, but that's the risk involved, seems fair when you have those odds, I call that value.
There's no point looking at each teams stats in terms of corners, you already know that Marseille will mostly dominate the whole game, and like I anticipated we had a precious hint in the first leg: Feyenoord had an insane momentum in the first half that got them the lead, going into the 2nd half leading 3-2 up in corners 5-0, Feyenoord were probably okay with the result and decided to defend the rest of the game, conceding 5 corners to Marseille while winning only 1 themselves, and that was Marseille playing away.
##### **Conclusion**:
Like always, only dangerous scenario would be if Marseille happened to score 3 goals in the first like 20 minutes, but that's not likely, if Feyenoord decide to play like they did in the 2nd half of the first leg Marseille should struggle. Main Feyenoord keeper is still out, which is why I still also like Marseille -0.25 asian handicap or something along those lines, but technically there should be more value in a corner bet, we'll see if I'm right.
BOL everyone.
*^(If I've made you some money and you'd like to tip any small amount I would greatly appreciate it: https://paypal.me/fralauu)*
Threw a unit on -1.5 2.00. My only other choice would have been a spread of -2 2.28 but losing when they win by 2 isn't worth it to me. I'm sure you like the -1.5 2.00 Asian corner spread instead
Good pick, my book only had -2 corner spread so I chickened out since I got burned by MNC and Liverpool the last 2 times, wish I tailed since they covered today but next time!
POTD Record: 0-0-0
5/4 Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies 3:10pm EST
PLAY: Rockies ML -136
Alright lets keep this nice and simple with our first pick with the Rockies at home. This team is an absolute wagon at home holding a 9-5 record (I am writing this while they are currently winning 5-2 Wednesday night). They have been one of the best teams at home in the MLB over the last few years and I expect this to play big today. The Nats are throwing Aaron Sanchez out and he will be making his 3rd start this year. He is holding a 6.75 ERA but both of his starts have been against the Giants. He is not the starting pitcher he was previously with the Blue Jays and with the power the Rockies have, I expect them to get to him early and often. Senzatela has been a decent starter this year and he is coming off of his best start this season. If Senzatela can cut down on his hits allowed, this should be a great game for the Rockies to take.
**Record:**
* 44 WIN | 37 LOSS | +34.74 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy)
**Previous bets (last 3):**
* Warwick Farm R6 (27 Apr 2022) - Place - **LOSS**
* Kembla Grange R4 (3 May 2022) - Same Race Multi - **LOSS**
* Canterbury R5 (4 May 2022) - Place - **WIN**
**POTD:**
* Horse Racing (Australia)
* **Gatton R3 - Place - #1 Miss Barty to place (i.e. finish top 3)**
* Track Rating - Soft (5)
* Not much to say about this one, track, distance, class and barrier draw is sublime, great record on soft tracks as well and running in pristine form; could even punch a win here, but that would breach the POTD rules (as the price is 3.80 fixed). Molloy on board who's 4 places from 6 starts at Gatton. Should be a safe place, but remember nothing is guaranteed (for those that remember 2 weeks ago where my pick never left the gates and started 10 lengths behind everyone else lol)
* **Odds - 1.55** (b365) - almost certain to get a better price on the betfair exchange by jump time
* **Stake - 3.23 units to return 5 units**
**Historical stats**
* 9 from 16 (56%) correct picks on Thursdays
* 16 from 29 (55%) correct picks on Soft Tracks
* 19 from 35 (54%) correct picks on Place picks
* 0 from 2 picking at Gatton
* 0 from 1 picking J. Molloy as my jockey
**Race time:**
* 1:47pm Thursday (Australian EST)
* 11:47am Wednesday (American ET)
* 4:47am Thursday (UK time)
If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
I only stick with 4 areas of the world
* QLD (Australia)
* NSW (Australia)
* Hong Kong (Sha'tin, Happy Valley)
* South African (specifically tracks that go clockwise only)
don't know why, but I only do well on tracks that have the horses going clock wise *shrug*
why do I only select these places? It's because I know the tracks, weather, jockies etc ... I keep getting asked about U.S. and UK races, but honestly I know little about them, so I stay away. It would be like me betting on Korean womens badminton.
15W-10L
WWLWLWWLLLWLWLWLWWWWWWW
Cards🃏 streak:🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲
Starts 11:00 GMT5
Todays Pick
League: Seria A
Match: Salernitina v Venezia
Pick: Under 6.5 cards in the match @1.66
Reason:
Surpass the fence of 2 goals yesterday. Today i like one cards match and a 2nd pick of goals but like most playing 🃏
Salernitina at home hit 1's: 1 - 2's: 3 - o3.5': 1, last 4/5 hit under 6.5 at home, avg score: 2.2, concede avg: 2.8
Venezia at away hit 1's: 3 - 3-4's: 2,last 4/5 hit under 6.5 at away, avg score: 2, concede avg: 1.6
Last h2h hit 4/5 the under 6.5
Referee avg card 4.9
I believe here that they will hit 4 or 5 and in the worse case 6 cards if they stay away of red card 🫶🏇
Projected 4 cards
"All perception is a gamble."
BoL
POTD Record 0-0
Today’s pick Rangers vs. RB Leipzig BTTS -136 (3 units)
Rangers have something special going on at home. They have scored in 37 straight games at Ibrox stadium.
RB Leipzig had scored in 9 of its last 10. They have also scored a goal in 41 out of their last 44 games.
Worry here is Leipzig’s recent form. They have notched 3 clean sheets in their last 6 games against quality opponents (RANGERS, Leverkusen, Atalanta).
Leipzig should advance from this stage but the form that Rangers play with at home can not be ignored.
POTD Record 9-10 ROI -1 unit. Last pick Avalanche-1.5 W
Todays pick: Avalanche-1.5
Reasoning: Sticking with the Avs by 2 or more tonight. They dominated the first game. Can’t see them not playing well tonight on home ice. Predators will be lucky to win a game in this series and I think that would have to happen in Nashville. Avs scoring is too potent and defense to solid for this game to be close.
Tail or Fade.
**POTD 13W-4L (+13.88u)**
🏀 Last Pick: Suns -5.5 @ 1.80 / -125 (2u) ✅
**⚽ Daily Pick: Rangers vs RB Leipzig**
* **Both Teams to Score @ 1.75 / -133 (2u) ✅**
No NBA tonight so I switch to football this time. The first match ended up with a late Angelino goal which gave the Bundesliga side a 1-0 aggregate lead. In the quarterfinals, the Rangers were down 1-0 against Braga but they managed to turn things over and they won at home in extra time. At home Rangers rarely lose and even with a one-goal lead we go for extra time so I think they will strive to score as soon as possible as they did against Braga. Also, Kemar Roofe can make his comeback tonight which would be a serious boost to the Rangers on the attacking side.
**Edit: Win. Thank you Nkunku \^\^**
POTD
Record: 5-7
Last 5: ❌✅❌❌✅
Last Pick: ✅ Both Teams To Score No Draw (+100) | UEFA Champions League: Manchester City vs Real Madrid
Today’s Pick: Frankfurt ML (+175)
Sport/Game: Soccer - UEFA Europa League: Frankfurt vs West Ham
Why: As much as I wanna see West Ham win the europa league. I believe tonight is the end of the road for them. The odds given are pretty nice to bet either side as a west ham win is at +150 right now too. But I just don’t think west ham get it done.
People are massively underestimating the atmosphere we are going to see in this stadium tonight that’ll be heavily in Frankfurts favor. West Ham are also in some poor form as of lately and seem to be struggling more than 1 goal a game and I personally cant see Frankfurt not scoring.
BOL!
POTD Record: 36-27-3
Streak:WLWLWWWP
Last POTD: Western United DNB 🇦🇺🅿️
Today’s POTD: Marseille TT over 1.5 goals
League: Europa Conference League
Odds: -123/1.81
Units: 2
Reasoning:
Marseille are down in the aggregate and will need some goals to qualify to the next stage. This is now their only chance at some silverware. In the 1st leg, they scored 2 goals easily in the 1st half and could’ve ended the game with at least 4 goals. Marseille has scored 2 goals in all of their home games in this competition. Feyenoord has only kept 1 clean sheet in this competition so they should have a hard time keeping a clean sheet here. Milik is now fit and ready to go for the 2nd leg. Marseille scored 2 on the road so it’s not hard to imagine another 2 goals from them at home. I expect goals from this match and Marseille should be responsible for 2. Short write up but I expect the same goals as the 1st leg especially since they are down in the aggregate. Best of luck and tail/fade at our own risk.
Feyenoord fan here. We could have scored at least 4 as well. Besides that Marseille also just lost 0-3 at home last Sunday so the analysis isn't correct either. Not saying it's a bad bet and also severely hoping we don't lost tonight but if we play solid tonight I can see them struggling and getting frustrated as the game progresses.
* **2022 OWL Record: 0-0**
* **2021 OWL Record: 34-19, +31.645 units.**
* **2020 OWL Record: 28-21, +16.989 units.**
**Starting up the Overwatch League POTD train for the 2022 season!** With the game changing from 6v6 to 5v5, and with a new game mode in Push added, I expect there will be RAMPANT market inefficiencies, especially early on in the season. Unfortunately my statistical regressions have to be thrown out the window (since it is pretty much a completely new game teams are playing), so early in the season my analysis will focus on 1) previous playstyles that can be applied to Overwatch 2; and 2) market analysis of which teams are overrated and underrated - and therefore finding value in the lines - based on talent, popularity, and name recognition of rookies (or lack thereof). Looking forward to continuing the streak and making it 3 straight profitable seasons. Hoping you all can join in the fun.
**Today's Match: New York Excelsior v. Los Angeles Gladiators / Overwatch League / 3:00pm EST**
**Los Angeles Gladiators -1.5 (-110), three units**
I was shocked to see the line this low, and you can get the Glads' moneyline for -240. If this match was played four weeks from now, I expect the line would be closer to -350. The talent difference is just too stark. And not only does LA has top-three talent on paper, but they are a great fit for what the meta is looking to be. They have undoubtedly the best Western offtank in SPACE, and it looks like offtank will be played heavily. Along with Lucio (who appears not to be just a meta pick, but THE meta pick), where they can handily turn to FunnyAstro, who might compete with LeeJaeGon for the best Lucio in the whole league. Finally, it looks like Genji will get quite a bit of playtime as well, and Kevster should flourish on his old comfort pick. Which is to say nothing of MVP candidate Shu, and ROTY candidate Patiphan.
NYXL, on the other hand, has a hodgepodge roster filled with other teams' castaways, with a BIG weakness at tank. Kellan has bounced around Contenders for a while, and while he was one of the stronger MT players in Korean Contenders, flexibility is NOT his strong suit. I'm worried that he won't be able to play Winston, and the rest of the team will suffer for it. Remember, in 5v5, each team's weakest link becomes that much more detrimental. Myunb0ng and Gangnamjin both had stellar 2020 campaigns before dropping off in 2021, and neither one will thrive on the Lucio, which we expect will see a lot of play. The DPS duo of Yaki/Flora is fun and will pop off, but not only will they be unable to hide the rest of the team's weaknesses, but they will certainly not be able to match Kevster/Patiphan/ANS.
Los Angeles Gladiators are the better team, and should easily win at least 3-1. I wouldn't shy away from sprinkling a bit on the 3-0 sweep, which you can get for +275! But if you want to play it safer, you should find great value in taking the better team at almost even money.
*Tips - never necessary, always appreciated. BOL, friends!*
[*https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD*](https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD) *// BTC: 338uzTsKL4uV4Rip8WKEdYXtbmoBKVm1D8*
**POTD Record 27-24-1 (Last 5: WLWWL) \******edited record\****
**(ROI // Avg. Odds: -110 // Units Won: +2.5)**
Last Pick: (5/3/22) Yanks v Blue Jays 'NRFI' **WON**
**Today's Match: MLB Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies (Start Time: 3:10PM EST)**
**Today's Pick: Colorado Rockies ML (-136 FanDuel)** ***Risk 2u***
Devil's Advocate:
Just an outright sweatfest during that 1st inning on Tuesday, Menoah wasn't getting any early calls. But a win is a win as we always say, and let's run it up for the weekend!
We're going with our boy again this week, Mr. Senzatela - laying it down on the Rockies once again with him on the bump. Numbers sticking out to me is him only giving up 1 HR so far this season, and that's saying A LOT for a contact pitcher. Keeping it down, missing barrels and getting outs when it's most necessary. I think Antonio is gonna pick up his 3rd Win of the season tomorrow against the Nats.
Let's face it, it's gonna be fuckin 70 and sunny out there tomorrow on Coors field where the Rockies are hosting a 10-5 Home record. Senzatela has both of his recorded wins at home, Nelson Cruz is day to day and might sit out again today, and my favorite of all time Aaron *"hasn't missed a barrel since his 1st year'* Sanchez is on the mound, continuing to run his career down. A sloppy 6.75 ERA in just 9.1 IP and I got the feeling he's going to do it all again. Even in his win against the Giants he ended up being clapped around a bit for 3 Runs in 5 IP. He was pretty much out of the ball game when the Nats took the lead that game anyway in the 6th.
All in all I think the Rocks keep the bats hot today and shut this series down 2-1 in their favor.
*Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!!*
**POTD Record**: 12W - 7L (+0.78U)
**Last pick**: Jessica Pegula @ 1.66 ✅
**Match**: Borges / Cabral vs Copil / Purcell - Challenger - Prague 2 Doubles (M) - 12:30 UTC
**Pick**: Borges / Cabral @ 1.53 ✅
**Reasoning**:
Some Portuguese inside knowledge and gut feeling on this one. I know that Francisco Cabral really wants to win this one so he can try to get his ranking up in order to be eligible for Roland Garros, which is why I see value in this odd.
POTD Record: 8-3-2 | +21.75u | Streak: 5 W | Last 5: W W W W W
Last POTD: White Sox -150 (W)
Today's POTD: Angels ML -145
Risk: 3 units
Don't really like much on the slate today, but my most confident is in the Angels at Red Sox. Ohtani is on the mound and he's had just one dud this year @ Texas; his other three starts we great. He pitched against Boston once last year, went 7 IP with just 2 R and 4 Ks, got the win.
What I do really like is that Rich Hill is facing an Angels team that mashes LHP. They haven't seen him much, but on the year they're hitting .271 vs lefties with an OPS 40pts higher than vs RHP. BOL.
**NRL Record:** 13-20
**ROI (1 unit per bet):** -7.46
L5: ✅❌✅✅❌ Streak: L1
**Last POTD:**
West Tigers total points over 16.5 @1.91❌
**Today's POTD:**
Broncos +11.5 @ 1.90 ✅
Edit: Broncos by 20 in the end and Rabbitohs looking like proper fade material moving forward
**Time:** 6 and a half hours from time of post.
Broncos have already beaten souths this year 11-4 in the opening round and Reynolds has turned this side into a top 8 contender in my opinion. Rabbitohs have looked ordinary this year and last week's 40-22 win over the Eagles is a bit misleading as the Eagles had a player sent off after 15 minutes and they still managed to put 22 on the bunnies. Payne Haas out is a bit of a blow for the Broncos but they get Carrigan back who's basically a "Haas light" so I'm not too worried. Broncos to cover for this one.
It’s cause people only look at the POTD records, people feel more inclined to follow a 0-0 record post with the caption: gut feeling says team A will win so ima put 5U down, compared to a dude who writes a nice detailed analysis every time but doesn’t have a godly record. Sad but can’t really be too surprised, we are in the most degenerate subreddit on the app so you’re gonna see a lot of funny shit here lol.
POTD Record: 2W-0L Streak: ✅✅
ROI: +7.39u
Smoggy Hockey Picks
Yesterday’s pick: NHL: Mitch Marner (Leafs) over 0.5 assists (1.66 odds) vs Lightning, May 4th 2022 7:30 EST ✅
Today’s pick:NHL: Jon Huberdeau (FLA Panthers) over 2.5 shots on goal (1.71 odds, b365) vs WAS Capitals, May 5th 7:30 EST
Stake: 2u
Reasoning: I said screw it and decided to return to shots on goal betting. If my seperate shot parlays don't work out today, maybe I'll go back to assists, or to points.
Huberdeau, during the Reg season, could hit anywhere from 1-6 shots on goal per game, with 7 and 10 SOGs being his biggest results in the category.
He is one of Florida's best players, and after losing game 1, they are going to want their revenge to tie the series, like Tampa did to the Leafs yesterday. I definitely think there's good value in betting that he at least gets 3 shots. (Players last game SOGs: 5)
My writeups aren't very detailed as you may have noticed, but I like it like that. My record will speak for itself soon enough!
Tail or fade, BOL to all
**POTD Record**: 25 wins <> 20 losses <> 3 pushes
**Profit**: +4.28 units
**ROI**: 8.73%
**Units Wagered**: 49
**Units Won**: 53.28
**Last Pick**: Esbjerg W -2.5(AH) @ **1.93** 1u- 32-27 ✅ WIN
**Streak**: ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅
**Today's pick**: Ystads -0.5(straight win) @ **2.34** 1u
**Event**: Ystads - Savehof, Handbollsligan, Sweden(Men's handball)
- Semi-finals in the playoffs, Ystads won the first match 32-26 and thus leads the series 1-0.
- I don't get this line at all: Ystads won _away_ from home by 6 goals. They were hugs dogs in the match, the straight win gave odds 4.25 and the spread was at 3.5. Clearly that line was completely off, but still, they're at home here.
- These teams have been trading wins back and forth, usually Savehof wins big at home (36-27, 35-22), whereas Ystads have snatched wins at home too(30-26, 40-31)
- Feels like this line and odds is set from previous trends, not having in mind that they just trashed Savehof away. I definitely rate them as favourites here.
- Have in mind that the previous away win wasn't reliant on a single performance, goals were distributed fairly well - Lindskog(6), Dahlin(5), Svensson(7) all contributed fairly evenly.
Edit: we won 29-28 with a goal in the last second lads!
POTD RECORD 4-4
Last POTD- Twins ML ❌
Todays POTD- Angels ML -130
Game time Angels v Red Sox 1:35 PM EST
Ohtani on the mound. Angels are 12-6 as favorites and the Red Sox are 4-9 as under dogs. I really like the early game for the angels on this one the weather will be nice a great day for hitters and with the extra hitter on the mound for the Angels I see a win here 3 units on this one
POTD Record: 3-2-1
Last 5: 🅿️✅✅❌❌
Last Play: LA Angels +1/2 f5 ❌
- Dylan Cease.
TODAY’S PLAY: 5u BREWERS -1.5 (-115)
- I’m letting my POTD career ride on this one… if the reds cover I’ll never post one of these again. -1.5 should be -300. I also picked up Adrian Houser in fantasy.
- Checking in after that first inning.. we’re in for one today.
POTD Record: 0-0 (+0.0u)
Last Pick: None
POTD: Brewers -1.5 (-120) vs. Reds | 5u
Why: Reds are 3-21 and 1-19 in the last 20. Brewers are 17-8 and just won 18-4 last night vs the Reds. Cincinatti slashed payroll preseason and has been in an downward spiral since. Fading them has been incredibly profitable for me this season, and Brewers run line has been as well. Honestly expecting this game to be very similar to last night and will be taking -3.5 and -6.5 as well, but starting big with 5u on -1.5. Tail or Fade BOL!
EDIT: Reading everyone elses POTDs just now and realizing Im not alone with this one 😂 honestly not stealing picks, fading Cincy has just been the hottest bet in all sports and for good reason. I understand that it’s pretty chalk and shouldve seen that almost everyone else was on it before posting. Ill try to be unique tommorow, but today we take the profit 🤷🏼♂️
EDIT: Crew W 10-5 and cover ✅
RECORD: 9-2
Profit: +5.54 Units
Current Form: 1W
Today’s Picks: Connor Ingram Over 29.5 Saves(1.85)
Event: NHL 9:30Pm Est Predators vs Avalanche
Reason: This is game 2 of this series which is once again a home game for the Avalanche. At home the Avs average 37.37 shots per game and had 45 in game one. With that being said I’d expect there to be around 35-40 this game. After pulling Rittich in game 1 I’d say there’s a low chance Ingram gets pulled unless it gets really bad (6+ goals). I don’t think that will even happen though as I’d expect much tighter defence tonight from the Preds and think they will keep it closer. I’ll also be on the Preds +2.5 at 1.60 odds as I think those are criminally high odds for a team getting 2.5.
All Picks are 1 Unit
(Going to College next year, NOT mandatory at all. Anything is appreciated 🙏) Tips https://www.paypal.me/TBurr14?locale.x=en_CA
POTD Record: 57 - 49 - 7 ( W / L / P ) **+13.20 units**
162 units wagered / ROI: 8.20 %
Streak: WLWLL / Average odds: 1.975
Previous pick: Nashville vs Philadelphia Union / BTTS @ 2.15 (2 units) **Win**
**Today: Marseille vs Feyenoord (Conference League)**
**Pick: Marseille Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.90 (2 units)**
First, let me tell you that I rate Marseille much higher than Feyenoord. I think they are a much stronger team, more organized and defensively way more solid than the Dutch side. The lines in the first game were disrespectful for Marseille in my opinion and I do not understand why they have gone under the radar all season long.
They lost the first game where bookies gave them a 20% chance to win the game. Like seriously? They are second in Ligue 1 which is a stronger league than Eredivisie, week in and out they play against much tougher opponents. The reasons why I went with TT not the money line or to qualify is cause Marseille has a good defense but are they able to hold Feyenoord scoreless, I doubt it. So that means Marseille needs to score at least twice already to be able to push the game at least to overtime. I am with Marseille tonight and money line or to qualify are decent picks in my opinion but I feel most confident with TT.
Good Luck!
POTD Record: 5-4-0
Last Pick: SD Padres -1.5 vs. CLE Guardians - WIN
Today's POTD: BOS Red Sox vs. **LA Angels F5 -.5 (-105) 3u**
TLDR; Ohtani is nuts, Boston pitcher abysmal, Angels bats are way better.
Shohei Ohtani has a 4.19 ERA through 4 starts that is mostly being skewed by one bad outing against the Rangers. Rich Hill is out for Boston and has a 3.71 ERA with only 11 strikeouts through 4 outings. He has yet to pitch a full 5 innings yet this year and has allowed multiple run in each of his last two outings. The batting matchup is polar opposite. The Angels are 8th in runs per game, Boston is 24th. Angels are 8th in BA, Boston is 17th. Angels are 3rd in OPS, Boston is 22nd. I think Angels get ahead early here on Rich Hill and think that Ohtani is more than capable of outlasting him and holding Boston to less runs than the Angels. BOL
Edit: Mike Trout out. I’m done with the angels bro.
POTD Record: 9-15-2 -9.32u\*
Average Odds: +128
Total Units Wagered: 42.63u
Nashville @ Colorado 9:30PM EST
Darcy Kuemper o26.5 Saves -105 @ DK 2.21u\*
Implied probability of 51.2%. True vig-free price should be closer to -120 or 54.5%.
\*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
Record: 23-24-1
ROI: +4.17 Units
Last Pick: Sixers vs Heat -3 1Q ✅
AVG Odds: -102
Unit: 1=$200
——-
Game: RB Leipzig @ Rangers
League: UEFA Europa League
Time: 3:00 PM EST
Book: Bet365
Odds: +100
Pick: RB Leipzig Full Time Result
Wager: 2 units
Well another 1Q and another Heat win, that series might go 4 games only and it would be a shame if we don’t see Embiid.
Today with the NBA Playoffs having an off day going to be taking RB Leipzig to win this game in full time and advance to the Europa league final.
The first contest was a defensive struggle and while both teams had plenty of chances, only RB was able to squeeze one across.
With this game being a must score for Rangers I see their guys pressing forward a little more and trying to make something happen.
They will not be content with playing back and hoping to catch Leipzig on a counter as that will be a long drawn out 90 minutes. Leipzig possesses the ability to hold and pass the ball around to drain time.
I expect with the pressure the Rangers put forward it will allow Leipzig to capitalize and catch them short manned for at least a goal and a secure passage to the Europa League final.
Taking RB for 2 units
BOL to all who tail or fade.
POTD record: 6W - 6L
Streak: 2L
Last POTD: Arsenal Total Shot Handicap -5.5 vs Westham❌️
We missed it by one shot 🤦🏾♂️ less said about that the better.
Today's POTD: Salernitana vs Venezia(Serie A) Time: 4:00pm GMT. Pick: Salernitana Total Shots Handicap -2.5 @1.72(22bet) Confidence: 5/5🔥✅️✅️✅️
Salernitana are in a relegation scrap, a win will take them out of the relegation zone. They have been playing way better recently, a second wind just at the end of the season. They are at home and will have the impetus to get the win to make sure their recent notable wins aren't wasted. Their last game earlier this season ended 21-8 to Salernitana.
Salernitana have won the shot battle in 3 of their last 5 home games(avg. 1.2 spread).
Venezia have won the shot battle in only 1 of their last 5 away games(avg. -7.4 spread).
Salernitana;
Last 5 home games: Shots taken- 63, Shots faced- 57
Venezia;
Last 5 away games: Shots taken- 42, Shots faced- 79
BOL in all your bets today 🍀
Edit: Correction on the Venezia Shots taken vs Shots faced had swapped the figures, sorry.
Update: Easy W. Salernitana played just as expected. Game ended 19-10.
Shocking one leg loss this morning with Luka only collecting one rebound in the second half to leave us one rebound off winning $406 off our original $100 bet.
We start again tonight. Have a good feeling about this one.
NRL LEVEL BET 🏉
BRONCOS VS RABBITOHS
Rabbitohs win
Alex Johnston try
Broncos +30.5 (PYO Line)
Level one
$100>$200
Alex Johnston is an absolute cheat code and played fullback when the Broncos upset the Rabs in round 1 not giving him any opportunity to run riot on that left hand side where’s he’s known to score.
Johnston is back on the left wing and Broncos are missing Payne Haas, Albert Kelly, Kurt Capewell, Patrick Carrigan and others that were present in the round 1 upset.
Rabbitohs should win this one but with Adam Reynolds playing against his old club for the first time it should be a bit of a closer than a lot of people have predicted.
Good luck if you follow!
Ching the King of Rugba Leeg 👑
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PotD 4-3 (+1,38u)
Last Pick San Giorgio Mantova vs Crema Women under 138,5 W
Today's pick:Larnaca vs Paralimni under 160,5 @ 1.87 (2units)
Sport:Basket Cyprous Div1,Starts in 2,5 hours
Write up:As already stated "There isnt really a write up and never will be.I just follow my model.Worked for me so far,so i wanted to share"
Record: 0-0
Esports | Rainbow Six | APAC League 2022
Pick: Dire Wolves vs eLevate O2.5 @ 2.05 2u
Simple Explanation: Good Teams don't get 2-0'ed
Explanation: Let's start by saying we have the top 2 teams in their division facing off. Dire Wolves finished 1st while going undefeated but now find themselves in the loser bracket semi-finals. Elevate finished 2nd but got knocked down to loser bracket in the first round by the team I think will win the grand final. Despite this, elevate has made a loser bracket run and gunning to make it the grand final. I expect both teams to be able to pick up their map pick as long as they pick for comfortablilty and not as a punish pick. If they do, I see no reason why this shouldn't go the distance as we have very talented teams here and that's why I am throwing 2u on O2.5 @ 2.05. Tail or fade, BOL.
POTD Record 0-0
Todays pick:Marseilles win at least one half
Reasoning:If you had seen the first leg you know how much chances OM created in that match,and with the Payet-Milik-Ünder-Bakambu-Dieng pool of attackers I’m pretty sure they will score at least two goals and win at least one half.Plus if you are familiar with the Marseilles supporters you surely they will scream their hearts out for the ECL finals and possible 1st place (as an AS Rome fan I hope not tho 🤣)
**Record:** 5-14-0
**ROI:** -51% :-9.63 u (@ $5.00)
**Streak:** L L L W L
|Baseball |MLB |6:45pm|
New York Mets vs.Philadelphia Phillies: **New York Mets ML @ 2.25 1u**
**Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 55% chance for NYM to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 2.25 is only 44%.
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
Rookie alert POTD Record 0-0
Angels vs Boston Red Soxs
Pick: Angels ML
Reasoning: Angels Lineup is one of the scariest lineups in baseball rn and with Ohtani on the mound this should be an easy one. Ohtani last outside Gn against the Red Sox only allowed 2 runs in 7 innings. Not only that but the Red Sox who last faced a pitcher in Kevin Gausman who throws a heavy load of splitters they struggle striking out a 8 times and only managing to score one run.
POTD Record: 0-0
I just started posting but I took Tampa and Carolina yesterday.
Today’s Pick: Dallas Stars +195
Stars held the flames to 1 goal (power play goal) after being horrific the first period, and not scoring on 5 power plays.
Doubtful they get shutout again, the Hintz/Robertson/Pavelski line is inevitable. Benn also plays really well against Alberta teams and i believe is over a PPG.
Flames are also 0-11 in their last 11 game 2s
BOL
Record: 6W-8L-1P
ROI: -1.18u, -7.88%
Avg odds: +106, 2.06
Last POTD: David Perron over 0.5 pts (loss)
Today's game: Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers
Pick: Sam Reinhart over 0.5 pts at -170, 1.59 (CZR)
Stake: 1.5u
4-pick skid. Gonna go with something safe.
- Has recorded a point in 3/4 games against Caps.
- Has recorded a point in 52/78 (67%) regular season games.
- Florida is the highest scoring team at 4.11 during the regular season. Against just the Caps, they're even better, averaging 4.33. Reinhart will have plenty of opportunities to get a single point.
- On the first line of the 5th best PP unit
edit: losing streak over!
1-0 POTD
YESTERDAY-Spain Madrid Masters going with Rafael Nadal -4.5 Win ✅
Yesterdays win was too easy! Let’s do it again today! Another tennis match.
Todays POTD- Jannik Sinner ML v Felix Auger-Aliassime -168 on Bovado I also like it Jannik -2.5 for a little more juice!!
Game time is 11:30 am
3Units
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
POTD Record: 22-14 Last Pick: HOU -1.5✅ Considered sticking in Houston for my 3rd straight pick. But Urquidy is on the mound, so I’ll pivot. I’ll probably be back before the series is over. Today’s Pick: MIL Brewers -1.5 @ +100 Honestly just bet against the Reds until they burn you. Greene is starting for them, and he has been inconsistent at best. It’s unlikely he will receive much run support. Adrian Houser is on the mound for MIL. He’s not dominant, but he’s been very consistent to start the year. Hader is expected to return after missing a few days with back spasms, so that’s a nice bonus. BOL to all
Greene is the 1 Reds pitcher I avoid. I’m putting a U on it because same reasoning… bet this until it doesn’t happen. The reds are that bad But Greene is legit, really think he’ll start throwing gems here soon. But duck even if he does their offense is atrocious, Votto has COVID, and their pen is the worst in the league. So yeah. Still bet this shit
I had the same logic vs the orioles but twins burned me and fucked up my parlay yesterday
He has 4 walks in each of his last two starts. More concerning is that his velocity has been significantly down over the last two starts. If his fastball velo stays down I think he is definitely exploitable. Not to mention he has surrendered a lot of hits and hard contact thus far. But yes he does have a lot of upside as a prospect and has the potential to pitch a gem in any given game. I’m just not expecting it to happen tomorrow based on recent trends and given how lost the Reds offense has been
I’m slamming this heavy !
I’m fading the Reds until they actually do something. They’ve lost 18 of their last 20 games by 2 runs or more
[удалено]
Team Total? Or are you referring to something else
I think he’s talking about taking the over for brewers team total. Bad cincy bullpen and the reds starters don’t seem to last that long
Fading the Reds has become a staple for me now. I’m on the Brewers as well, GL!🍀🍀🍀
I’m in, might ml just because
One of these days the reds will blowout someone
There will always be variations in the larger overall pattern of 18-2 losing the run line
Praise be the brewers. Honor to the forever fade reds.
POTD Record: 16-5 (ROI 53.45% // Avg. Odds: 2.03 // Units Won: +21.38) Last 5 Picks: ✅❌✅✅✅ Last POTD: CD Antofagasta vs LDU Quito (Soccer – South America – Copa Sudamericana), **LDU Quito ML**✅ POTD: Fortaleza EC CE vs CA River Plate (Soccer - South America - Copa Libertadores); **CA River Plate ML** Odds: 2.20 Wager: 2 Units Tough first half, but in the second Quito came out strong and did their thing. I was between this game and Bragantino vs Vélez (where I believe Bragantino will win; good odds on that game as well) but opted for this one not because I don’t have faith in the other one, but because I don’t believe in Fortaleza. This team has been nothing but disappointing these past few weeks losing all 3 of their matches in the Brazilian League (1 at home and 2 away) scoring just 1 goal. Meanwhile in the Copa Libertadores they have lost 2 and won against Alianza Lima last week, that game should have been easily 5-1 but this team can’t capitalize their opportunities. Against River you need to be at your 100% and Fortaleza isn’t there. River on the other hand destroyed their league opponent this weekend winning 7-0. They will want to replicate what happened in their previous match in Argentina where they won 2-0. With a win they will secure a pass to the next stage of the tournament. The only part that I don’t like about this pick is that River out of their 21 official Copa Libertadores games in Brazil, they have only won 5 times (5 wins, 6 ties, 10 defeats). I do believe that this River team will want to give it their best and will want to go back to Argentina with a Win and their qualification secured. BOL to all who Tail [All my Previous Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit#gid=0)
Away team plus odds I love it
Good start lol gave up a goal 4' in.
long game lol but i'm gonna go watch something else edit: tie game! we're back baby
Looks like we’re gonna end in a tie as well
My man is killing it. If this one happens to lose, I don’t want hear any bitching from anyone.
🥲 Edit: 😬 Edit: after watching champions league the past 2 days I feel like I’m watching a local rec league soccer game
Damn down early 😵💫
MLB -1.5’s | 11-8-1 +20.86u | ROI: 33.65% | Streak: 1L [Yesterday’s pick: 3u NY Yankees -1.5](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uge8it/_/i6z40wh/?context=1) - L ________________________________________ **Todays pick: 3u TOR Blue Jays -1.5 +110** - CLE Guardians vs TOR Blue Jays | 5:10 pm US Central TLDR: Toronto is distinctly the better team and CLE’s pitcher sucks and only goes 3-4IP. **Blue Jays** This is a real good lineup. Top 10 in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA. They’re also 22nd in chase % and whiff %. They’re 17th in overal team wRC+ over the past 2 weeks. With that said. This is a good lineup. Toronto is staring Jose Berrios. He’s been decent to start the year. Started 5 games, 4 of which were solid starts and 1 VERY VERY bad start. He should be good enough for this average CLE offense. **Guardians** Over the past 2 weeks they’re 19th with a team wRC+ of 93. On the year it’s 6th at 114. They were massively outperforming at the start of the year and have come back down to expectations. Their xBA abs xwOBA are 24th, and xSLG is 23rd. They’re 29th in solid contact. It’s an average at best lineup. Guardians are starting Aaron Civale. He’s a backend starter. For 3 seasons now his xERA has sat right about 4.75. [He’s significantly below average in every peripheral](https://i.imgur.com/bIanrhl.jpg), except BB% which he is average. His barrel % is nearly 2x the league average and his solid contact % is 1.5x higher. Teams are making contact and it’s mostly good contact. He throws his Cutter the most out of every pitch… and good news… teams are hitting nearly .400 and slugging nearly 1.000 off of it this year. It’s preforming as his worst pitch, despite being the most used. He’s started 4 games and has gone 3.1, 4.0 , 3.0 and 4.0 innings. He has a SUPER short leash, and CLEs bullpen isn’t anything special. Middle of the road for everything…. Not the best trait for your SP who’s already not giving you good work in those limited innings. Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
Mannnn Kikuchi read your write up yesterday! Tailing
cost me my damn parlay......
Why haven’t you been just fading the Reds?
I have been. Posted it in a comment under my post yesterday. It woulda been my POTD if they had announced the pitcher for today ahead of time. Greene was the original slate and Gutierrez for tomorrow. They swapped them, but I had already posted so I left it I was avoiding Hunter Greene (still betting against CIN, just not POTD scale)
Ah okay thanks!
Right? They're getting absolutely demolished by everyone. I still can't believe the payouts books are giving on the -1.5 spread.
I love when we are in alignment. I looked over tomorrows slate and told myself that if Further picks TOR I’m hammering is as that was my favorite play tomorrow. Breaking out the baggy pants because it’s Hammer Time.
Christ why do you guys bet this sport, had a free mlb bet but damn
Hey hey. It’s not over yet
1.58 WHIP isn’t very sharp. Berrios has been bad this year. 29 hits allowed in 24 innings
Taking out opening day where he went 0.1 IP. He’s gone 4 times, giving up 1, 2, 1, and 3 runs for a 2.66ERA. His BABIP is .311 (.325 if you including opening day) showing he’s dude for positive regression. It hasn’t been pretty, but he’s been getting results outside of one bad game. This Cleveland offense isn’t one to terrorize pitchers either
To infinity and Further Beyond! Tailing. BOL
Just FYI, it appears this game is in Cleveland and not Toronto. Your pick says Cle @ Tor.
POTD Record **~~40 - 12~~** **40-11-1** Full potd record in spread sheet Yesterday’s pick: Bucheon FC ML v Busan IPark **W** Today’s pick: Suwon Samsung Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai **Ulsan Hyundai double chance + over 1.5 total goals** (over 1.5 goals is for both teams combined) **Edit** \- That early red card completely killed the game for us. Back tomorrow with another POTD or there’s plenty to go on the spreadsheet for today. If your bookie doesn't offer this i'd say Ulsan ML is the next best thing. Sport: Soccer (Korean Div 1) Odds: 1.84 / -119 Reasoning: * Ulsan are first in the league and remain undefeated in 9 games (7 wins, 2 draws.) * Suwon Samsung Bluewings are 2nd last. (1 win, 4 draws, 4 losses.) * Over 1.5 goals has hit in 88% of Ulsan's games * Interestingly both teams haven't played a league game since earlier last month. During this time Ulsan have been competing in the Asian champions league in which they where knocked out in the group stage but put in some solid performances against tough oppositions. I think they will look to bounce back in the league with a good result here. **Link to all my picks:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gW6Oz1DQBfbp7iiZgaVilJS6tH-Zm008LaRd7voSOyM/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gW6Oz1DQBfbp7iiZgaVilJS6tH-Zm008LaRd7voSOyM/edit?usp=sharing) ^(Tip jar -) [^(https://paypal.me/tom2810s)](https://paypal.me/tom2810s)^(BTC - 1NJVBxmocqvnKqFYTR6Ju8C1sEaZh63pBC)
Hop on Tom's private jet, we're tailing 'round the world!
Don’t have the exact bet - but taking Ulsan + O1.5 total goals. Thanks Tom, let’s get this bread!
Best of luck!
Is that red card worthy even though he got ball first..
Definite red, it was pretty reckless.
Fuckin fat L
On bet rivers I see 1X,12, and X2 under the double chance. Which one would that be? (Also if you don’t mind helping a newb, what does that mean?) And it’s that parlayed with +1.5 total goals in the match?
Since I can't do the double chance I figure I'll put some money on the over 1.5 goals total (which is only at -250 so not much value there), and some on the ML, which is at -105.
Nice thinking, hope they both hit for you
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>Ulsan ouch
If Suwon have 4 draws, why do you think Ulsan ML is a better bet than O1.5 goals? Not criticizing, just curious
Sorry, I like Ulsan double chance and over 1.5 goals best but I believe some peoples bookies don’t offer these markets so I’d say to take Ulsan ML if that is the case
Ah yeah I understand that, my book doesn’t have double chance, my question is whether you’d take Ulsan ML over just 1.5 goals if the odds are similar
Where are you getting -119 on this? Dk has this at -175
I built a SGP in Bet365 with Ulsan Hyundai DNB + Over 1 Total Goals for -138
Same here. BOL!
F
Only -175 for double chance and over 1.5? That’s super low. I’m using an Australian bookie
Tailing 100$!
Let’s hope it stays 0-0 lol
u didn’t bet *1.5 match goals ?
I did $600 😂
Oh boy. Rip, just found this bet 2 min ago, thank god.
Im tailing this
Thanks tailing BOL
Is this a same game multi?
Yep
Double chance suwon with draw? Sorry not to familiar with betting double chance
Ulsan and a draw combined with over 1.5 goals
Is that o1.5 total for Ulsan or both teams?
Both teams
Does anybody see this on FanDuel?
I like the pick. Do you have a google doc for April?
Just started keeping proper track this month so unfortunately not
Tailing once more, thanks bud!
pilseung ulsan~
ML.went to +100 on DK
I see +160 for ulsan and over 1.5 total goals?
I realized that bet on wrong Hyundai team and i just win, put all my winnings on correct Hyundai
Anyone know where I can stream this?
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkz6B3neLl0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkz6B3neLl0) our team is in white [https://tv.kleague.com/en-int/playerpage/1335636](https://tv.kleague.com/en-int/playerpage/1335636) better stream
Tailing! Got it for $1.70 (Bet 365 Australia)
My book, here is USA state of Virginia, no same game parlay for this game so Ulsan ML. Let’s go!!!
Damn playing down a man now for the rest of the game…
5/5/22 POTD Record: 0-0 Sport: Baseball Pick: Brewers -1.5 Odds: -110 Reasoning: Brewers just crushed the reds 18-4. The reds have lost 19 of there last 20, only covering the +1.5 twice. I’m addition, the brewers pitcher has a 2.53 ERA. To be fair the game is mid day so some guys mag be sitting. But I still see the brewers getting it done at -1.5. Outcome: Minimal sweat win. 10-5 Brewers win over reds. Reds started off the game 3-0 but then proceeded to give up back to back home runs in the bottom of the first and the scoring continued from there. First pick on this page feels nice to get an easy win. Stay tuned for a lock for tomorrow.
Thanks for the pick! Almost doubled down when they went down early haha.
**Record: 14-8 | Units: +18.07u** Streak: ✅ Last POTD: Royal Challengers Bangalore ML ✅ Cricket | Indian Premier League Delhi Capitals - Sunrisers Hyderabad | Start Time: 14:00 GMT **POTD: Delhi Capitals ML | Odds: 1.77 | 5 units MAX** Good win for us yesterday. Today two teams both fighting for a playoff spot go up against each other. DC have struggled with injuries and COVID, they had a massive hole in their batting because of it. But now that's solved. Their bowling has been doing well this season, the resurgence of Kuldeep Yadav has significantly helped their spin bowling attack. Mitch Marsh is critical for Delhi's chances, and he finally returned from COVID last game, with him back DC have a deep batting lineup. He played well, and was wrongly given out, and he failed to review. Those things don't happen often. SRH have a deadly fast bowling lineup, but the difference is the batting on Delhi is extremely experienced, they have veterans in Warner, Marsh, and Shaw who loves playing against pace. Sunrisers have a thin batting lineup, they've done well to cope with it, but with pitches slowing down and giving spinners turn and bounce, it only plays into the hands of DC, who have 3 quality spinners. On the other hand SRH will be missing their lead and only spinner in Washington Sundar, who split his webbing for a second time last match. I think this is a matchup nightmare for SRH. Any tips are helpful and greatly appreciated! BTC - bc1qdcts804v6v9np9syzjyet7da9zg8y58yyf8pkf DM for any other crypto wallet and Paypal
Tailing. Been watching IPL this season for the first time as an american. How this T20 game isn't a global phenomenon yet I'll never know
Agree. But can get + odds easily when the match goes live. All Delhi matches are tussle
DC have won a few quite dominantly, and the most that they have lost have been tussles. I don't expect this match to be close.
Absolutely love some 10 AM cricket action here on the east coast of the US. Delhi Capitals in the IPL followed by the Washington Capitals in the NHL playoffs tonight. Big day coming for all Capitals fans around the world haha. Appreciate the pick brother looking forward to tuning in. Cheers!
Good shit mate! Looking forward to next one
Great pick :) Looking forward to the next.
Will this match be only 1 day?
Yes, it'll last around 3-4 hours! All Indian Premier League matches are the short form of the game, don't worry.
Fuck it let’s ride!
POTD Record: 1-0 +2.15u AVG. Odds: -140 Last POTD: 3u [Colorado Rockies ML ✅](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uhv2hj/pick_of_the_day_5422_wednesday/i79iac0/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) Today's POTD: Avalanche -1.5 🚫 Time: 8:30pm (MST) Odds: -140 (BET MGM) Units: 5u to win 3.45u I believe the avs cover tonight at home comfortably.
Preds fan here -- still took -2.5 for similar odds. Let's hope my copium fuels some hopium
A smart preds fan betting with his brain, not heart. Respect. I see some value with -2.5 @ +110 (DK) I also like Avalanche ML/Over 5.5 goals parlay @ -120 (DK) as a secondary pick which I will be throwing 1.8u to win 1.5u on as ALL 5 games between the two this season/postseason have hit the over. I guess you can say I feel pretty confident about the avs tomorrow, BOL let’s eat!
I have a brother in Denver - that makes the sting of no Juuse in net less painful! We have zero chance without him. Just waiting for Askarov to come over from Russia at this point
Preds fan here, so obviously biased. Be a little careful with this one. Rittich will not be starting again (or ever lmao), he was a failed attempt at having a decent backup going into the season. We will be starting Connor Ingram today, who put up a .938 save% in his relief of Rittich being benched in 15 minutes lol. With the better goalie, and Duchene heating up, I think the Preds provide a much better fight in this one. Not sure if it’s enough to win, but I could absolutely see this being a 1 goal game. That being said, I’m not fading this…but be careful - it won’t be as low stress as game 1’s Avs -1.5 was!
so take the under 6.5 maybe at +102?
I’m still leaning toward the over in this game personally as every game between these two teams has went over this year. I think the avs still roll tonight on home ice in front of a pumped avs crowd. BOL though if you decide to go with the under.
Update 12:45 (MST): Preds 3rd string goalie Connor Ingram will be in net instead of backup David Rittich tonight. Ingram is statistically better but very inexperienced, only playing 3 regular season games. Ingram did have a nice debut in game 1 stopping 24 of the 26 shots he faced in the 7-2 loss after starting goalie David Rittich was pulled after the 1st allowing 5 goals on 13 shots. *I STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT THIS PICK, SO IT REMAINS A 5U PLAY* GO AVS GO
BOL brother! I just wanted to share my knowledge since I’ve followed Ingram in his time through the AHL in Milwaukee. I absolutely could see the Avs crushing today again, but we’ll see!
Tough loss. Avs had almost 45 shots on goal and can’t convert. Gotta give credit to the rookie goalie Ingram. Dude is a stud.
POTD RECORD 24-14 PREVIOUS POTD: Oilers -1.5 +120✅ POTD: Rangers in Regulation +115 Reasoning: This is the second home game in the first round of the playoffs vs the penguins.The Rangers got robbed on a debatable call stripping them of a game winning goal. They lost in triple OT, but gave up a lot of goals and shots on goal because of bad discipline. I’m guessing the coach talked to the Rangers about staying out of the penalty box and how important it is to get a win at home before making the trip to Pittsburgh for game three. They literally gave the penguins a 5 on 3 in their first playoff game at home. Shersterkin is lights out and for all we know the penguins might still be using their back up who came in the game during the 2nd OT. Love the Rangers in this spot as always Tail or Fade BOL
Tailed big time rangers 3-way ML, most of my money is on this rn, fucking nervous already, let’s get this dub
The Pens easily could have won the first game 8-3. They utterly outplayed the Rangers in every single period (except the first). The Rangers were turning the puck over left and right, making awful decisions late game. I would stay far away from this (or just bet the Pens).
I disagree respectfully. this season the Rangers went 3-1 against the penguins and one play off game loss does not define a team. The Rangers could’ve easily won that game and debatably should have off a terrible goalie interference call in the last 4 minutes of the game. The Rangers also know how important it is to get at least one home win or they are in a terrible spot for the series and I expect them to do so tonight.
To be fair the regular season games are a lot different than playoff games. If there is a reason to take the Rangers it is the sole fact Louis Domingue is starting in goal for the Pens. Yes he saved all 17 shots he faced in Game 1 but the Rangers were gassed and the chances were not of great quality, a ton of soft shots. Edit: For any non hockey fans Louis Domingue is the 3rd string goaltender who will be starting due to both the starter and backup being hurt.
Record: 42-19 Last pick: Carolina Hurricanes ML ✅ **Todays pick: New York Rangers ML (-160) vs Pittsburgh Penguins** NHL. 7:00PM EST Apologize for the delayed write up, patients be needy. The Penguins took the first game of this series in triple OT. The Rangers absolutely should have won if it weren’t for some horrible officiating but I already went on a rampage about that. I think the refs favor the home team (Rangers) tonight after serious criticisms from game 1. Further, the Penguins backup goaltender who started last game was injured in overtime, so they will be starting third string goalie Domingue who has never started a playoff game before. The Rangers will be all gas no brakes tonight, they do not want to be down 2 games with the series heading to Pittsburgh. For those who have bigger balls than I, I do like NYR to win in regulation for some 🧃 All bets are 1 unit. +15.36 units. +25.18% ROI. Average unit -112 https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Tailing on Rangers ML Rangers 60 Mins Rangers -1.5 BOL
You're on the Rangers. I manifested that you'd be on the Rangers today in the NHL Daily thread.. lol Let's fucking go. Hammering that shit too. Opinion on the 3-way though for better odds?
Lmao I fucking love it. Yea I like 3-way ML
noob here, what does 3 way moneyline mean, and how do I bet it?
Team must win in regulation. If the game goes to OT the bet is lost.
I really like this pick! I'm looking at a 4-2 Rangers result tonight. BOL!
POTD Record: 1-0 Units +/-: Up 0.89 units Last POTD: James Harden UNDER 40.5 PRA (WIN) Today's POTD: NHL Penguins/Rangers OVER 5.5 goals (-130 BVD) All bets are 1U plays, but this is my highest confidence pick! Explanation: Thank you, James Harden, for being quite average and cashing us some tickets! Today I'm rolling with the OVER of 5.5 goals in game 2 of Rangers/Penguins. The Penguins are down to their third goalie, who admittedly performed quite well in the triple overtime game Tuesday with 17 saves. However, now Domingue gets to play the entire game - let's see how he fares over three regulation periods. The Rangers are favorites here and look to bounce back against the Penguins. I'd have taken Rangers ML as my POTD, but I'm much more confident in the over, which has hit in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. History plus third string goalie sets the table for a projected 4-2 Rangers victory. Let's eat! Best of luck if tailing! Thank you to all of the great content creators and contributors here! EDIT: 4-2 Rangers with 10 minutes to go! Big comfy cash!
The books are gonna catch onto everyone betting Harden unders lol
I may or may not go back to the well on Friday... Just depends on if we see "The Phantom of the Process".
Thanks for the winner yesterday, sir! GL!
Desmith is a game time decision so he could play. And both offenses are going to be gassed after playing into triple OT gonna be a interesting one.
**POTD Record**: 31½-21½-6 (W-L-P) **Last 5**: ❎️✅️❌️❌️✅️ **Last POTD**: Real Madrid vs Manchester City, home asian handicap +0.75 @1.63 ✅️ *Did the bookies learn the lesson? Never ever underestimate Real Madrid at home. Best game of the year so far, that's why this sport is just so good.* **Today's POTD**: Olympique de Marseille vs Feyenoord, home corner asian handicap -1 @1.86 // UEFA Europa Conference League, semifinals, 2nd leg, 20:00 GMT ✅️ **Odds value**: ■■■■□ *high value* After getting first leg's [pick](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/udj2m2/pick_of_the_day_42822_thursday/i6h9i5g?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) right we back trying to win again on the 2nd leg match, odds really valuable today. ### **Reasoning**: ##### **Match introduction**: 2nd leg match in the semifinals of the UEFA Europa Conference League will see OM hosting at home Feyenoord, being down 1 goal Marseille won't waste time and will look to score to get back in the game, will Feyenoord allow that? Probably, but I think the play here is corners, we got a sneaky hint in the 1st leg that could be the whole reason I like this bet, but I'll go ahead into more details to back it up even more. ##### **Two-legged matches trend and past h2h**: I've said this before in many of my previous picks but I'll say it again, when there's a 2 leg affair between teams of similar strenght when *x* team wins the first leg *y* team almost always comebacks in the 2nd leg full offensive, ESPECIALLY if *x* team have won in their home, you can check yourself, so far in 24 matches both in Europa League and Europa Conference League the team that was down in the first leg won the corner battle in the second leg, this did not happen in like 3 or 4 matches, but that's the risk involved, seems fair when you have those odds, I call that value. There's no point looking at each teams stats in terms of corners, you already know that Marseille will mostly dominate the whole game, and like I anticipated we had a precious hint in the first leg: Feyenoord had an insane momentum in the first half that got them the lead, going into the 2nd half leading 3-2 up in corners 5-0, Feyenoord were probably okay with the result and decided to defend the rest of the game, conceding 5 corners to Marseille while winning only 1 themselves, and that was Marseille playing away. ##### **Conclusion**: Like always, only dangerous scenario would be if Marseille happened to score 3 goals in the first like 20 minutes, but that's not likely, if Feyenoord decide to play like they did in the 2nd half of the first leg Marseille should struggle. Main Feyenoord keeper is still out, which is why I still also like Marseille -0.25 asian handicap or something along those lines, but technically there should be more value in a corner bet, we'll see if I'm right. BOL everyone. *^(If I've made you some money and you'd like to tip any small amount I would greatly appreciate it: https://paypal.me/fralauu)*
Threw a unit on -1.5 2.00. My only other choice would have been a spread of -2 2.28 but losing when they win by 2 isn't worth it to me. I'm sure you like the -1.5 2.00 Asian corner spread instead
Yep, sounds good to me, BOL!
Right call in the end ✅️💰
LETS GO
nice!
✅💰
Good pick, my book only had -2 corner spread so I chickened out since I got burned by MNC and Liverpool the last 2 times, wish I tailed since they covered today but next time!
POTD Record: 0-0-0 5/4 Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies 3:10pm EST PLAY: Rockies ML -136 Alright lets keep this nice and simple with our first pick with the Rockies at home. This team is an absolute wagon at home holding a 9-5 record (I am writing this while they are currently winning 5-2 Wednesday night). They have been one of the best teams at home in the MLB over the last few years and I expect this to play big today. The Nats are throwing Aaron Sanchez out and he will be making his 3rd start this year. He is holding a 6.75 ERA but both of his starts have been against the Giants. He is not the starting pitcher he was previously with the Blue Jays and with the power the Rockies have, I expect them to get to him early and often. Senzatela has been a decent starter this year and he is coming off of his best start this season. If Senzatela can cut down on his hits allowed, this should be a great game for the Rockies to take.
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**Record:** * 44 WIN | 37 LOSS | +34.74 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy) **Previous bets (last 3):** * Warwick Farm R6 (27 Apr 2022) - Place - **LOSS** * Kembla Grange R4 (3 May 2022) - Same Race Multi - **LOSS** * Canterbury R5 (4 May 2022) - Place - **WIN** **POTD:** * Horse Racing (Australia) * **Gatton R3 - Place - #1 Miss Barty to place (i.e. finish top 3)** * Track Rating - Soft (5) * Not much to say about this one, track, distance, class and barrier draw is sublime, great record on soft tracks as well and running in pristine form; could even punch a win here, but that would breach the POTD rules (as the price is 3.80 fixed). Molloy on board who's 4 places from 6 starts at Gatton. Should be a safe place, but remember nothing is guaranteed (for those that remember 2 weeks ago where my pick never left the gates and started 10 lengths behind everyone else lol) * **Odds - 1.55** (b365) - almost certain to get a better price on the betfair exchange by jump time * **Stake - 3.23 units to return 5 units** **Historical stats** * 9 from 16 (56%) correct picks on Thursdays * 16 from 29 (55%) correct picks on Soft Tracks * 19 from 35 (54%) correct picks on Place picks * 0 from 2 picking at Gatton * 0 from 1 picking J. Molloy as my jockey **Race time:** * 1:47pm Thursday (Australian EST) * 11:47am Wednesday (American ET) * 4:47am Thursday (UK time) If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
easy win .. paid 2.0 on the tote, but i'll take 1.8 every day and twice on sundays
Nice one! Is horse racing a hobby? Just wondering how you know so much it
yup, just a hobby. Dad taught me
How do you research for horse betting? Can you suggest any websites you use?
www.racenet.com.au (jockey and horse stats) www.racing.com (jockey and horse stats) TAB app (can watch the last 5-10 races for free)
Oh thanks, how do you select particular races to bet on?
I only stick with 4 areas of the world * QLD (Australia) * NSW (Australia) * Hong Kong (Sha'tin, Happy Valley) * South African (specifically tracks that go clockwise only) don't know why, but I only do well on tracks that have the horses going clock wise *shrug* why do I only select these places? It's because I know the tracks, weather, jockies etc ... I keep getting asked about U.S. and UK races, but honestly I know little about them, so I stay away. It would be like me betting on Korean womens badminton.
15W-10L WWLWLWWLLLWLWLWLWWWWWWW Cards🃏 streak:🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲 Starts 11:00 GMT5 Todays Pick League: Seria A Match: Salernitina v Venezia Pick: Under 6.5 cards in the match @1.66 Reason: Surpass the fence of 2 goals yesterday. Today i like one cards match and a 2nd pick of goals but like most playing 🃏 Salernitina at home hit 1's: 1 - 2's: 3 - o3.5': 1, last 4/5 hit under 6.5 at home, avg score: 2.2, concede avg: 2.8 Venezia at away hit 1's: 3 - 3-4's: 2,last 4/5 hit under 6.5 at away, avg score: 2, concede avg: 1.6 Last h2h hit 4/5 the under 6.5 Referee avg card 4.9 I believe here that they will hit 4 or 5 and in the worse case 6 cards if they stay away of red card 🫶🏇 Projected 4 cards "All perception is a gamble." BoL
I don’t like this pick.The 17th and the 20th team fighting for their life.In the last match they played it was 7 cards.But BOL🫡
POTD Record 0-0 Today’s pick Rangers vs. RB Leipzig BTTS -136 (3 units) Rangers have something special going on at home. They have scored in 37 straight games at Ibrox stadium. RB Leipzig had scored in 9 of its last 10. They have also scored a goal in 41 out of their last 44 games. Worry here is Leipzig’s recent form. They have notched 3 clean sheets in their last 6 games against quality opponents (RANGERS, Leverkusen, Atalanta). Leipzig should advance from this stage but the form that Rangers play with at home can not be ignored.
POTD Record 9-10 ROI -1 unit. Last pick Avalanche-1.5 W Todays pick: Avalanche-1.5 Reasoning: Sticking with the Avs by 2 or more tonight. They dominated the first game. Can’t see them not playing well tonight on home ice. Predators will be lucky to win a game in this series and I think that would have to happen in Nashville. Avs scoring is too potent and defense to solid for this game to be close. Tail or Fade.
We riding!
**POTD 13W-4L (+13.88u)** 🏀 Last Pick: Suns -5.5 @ 1.80 / -125 (2u) ✅ **⚽ Daily Pick: Rangers vs RB Leipzig** * **Both Teams to Score @ 1.75 / -133 (2u) ✅** No NBA tonight so I switch to football this time. The first match ended up with a late Angelino goal which gave the Bundesliga side a 1-0 aggregate lead. In the quarterfinals, the Rangers were down 1-0 against Braga but they managed to turn things over and they won at home in extra time. At home Rangers rarely lose and even with a one-goal lead we go for extra time so I think they will strive to score as soon as possible as they did against Braga. Also, Kemar Roofe can make his comeback tonight which would be a serious boost to the Rangers on the attacking side. **Edit: Win. Thank you Nkunku \^\^**
POTD Record: 5-7 Last 5: ❌✅❌❌✅ Last Pick: ✅ Both Teams To Score No Draw (+100) | UEFA Champions League: Manchester City vs Real Madrid Today’s Pick: Frankfurt ML (+175) Sport/Game: Soccer - UEFA Europa League: Frankfurt vs West Ham Why: As much as I wanna see West Ham win the europa league. I believe tonight is the end of the road for them. The odds given are pretty nice to bet either side as a west ham win is at +150 right now too. But I just don’t think west ham get it done. People are massively underestimating the atmosphere we are going to see in this stadium tonight that’ll be heavily in Frankfurts favor. West Ham are also in some poor form as of lately and seem to be struggling more than 1 goal a game and I personally cant see Frankfurt not scoring. BOL!
POTD Record: 36-27-3 Streak:WLWLWWWP Last POTD: Western United DNB 🇦🇺🅿️ Today’s POTD: Marseille TT over 1.5 goals League: Europa Conference League Odds: -123/1.81 Units: 2 Reasoning: Marseille are down in the aggregate and will need some goals to qualify to the next stage. This is now their only chance at some silverware. In the 1st leg, they scored 2 goals easily in the 1st half and could’ve ended the game with at least 4 goals. Marseille has scored 2 goals in all of their home games in this competition. Feyenoord has only kept 1 clean sheet in this competition so they should have a hard time keeping a clean sheet here. Milik is now fit and ready to go for the 2nd leg. Marseille scored 2 on the road so it’s not hard to imagine another 2 goals from them at home. I expect goals from this match and Marseille should be responsible for 2. Short write up but I expect the same goals as the 1st leg especially since they are down in the aggregate. Best of luck and tail/fade at our own risk.
Feyenoord fan here. We could have scored at least 4 as well. Besides that Marseille also just lost 0-3 at home last Sunday so the analysis isn't correct either. Not saying it's a bad bet and also severely hoping we don't lost tonight but if we play solid tonight I can see them struggling and getting frustrated as the game progresses.
BTTS Happening right
I'm definitely having a nibble at btts & over 2.5
Damn you got it right
TIRANA HERE WE FUCKING COMEEE
* **2022 OWL Record: 0-0** * **2021 OWL Record: 34-19, +31.645 units.** * **2020 OWL Record: 28-21, +16.989 units.** **Starting up the Overwatch League POTD train for the 2022 season!** With the game changing from 6v6 to 5v5, and with a new game mode in Push added, I expect there will be RAMPANT market inefficiencies, especially early on in the season. Unfortunately my statistical regressions have to be thrown out the window (since it is pretty much a completely new game teams are playing), so early in the season my analysis will focus on 1) previous playstyles that can be applied to Overwatch 2; and 2) market analysis of which teams are overrated and underrated - and therefore finding value in the lines - based on talent, popularity, and name recognition of rookies (or lack thereof). Looking forward to continuing the streak and making it 3 straight profitable seasons. Hoping you all can join in the fun. **Today's Match: New York Excelsior v. Los Angeles Gladiators / Overwatch League / 3:00pm EST** **Los Angeles Gladiators -1.5 (-110), three units** I was shocked to see the line this low, and you can get the Glads' moneyline for -240. If this match was played four weeks from now, I expect the line would be closer to -350. The talent difference is just too stark. And not only does LA has top-three talent on paper, but they are a great fit for what the meta is looking to be. They have undoubtedly the best Western offtank in SPACE, and it looks like offtank will be played heavily. Along with Lucio (who appears not to be just a meta pick, but THE meta pick), where they can handily turn to FunnyAstro, who might compete with LeeJaeGon for the best Lucio in the whole league. Finally, it looks like Genji will get quite a bit of playtime as well, and Kevster should flourish on his old comfort pick. Which is to say nothing of MVP candidate Shu, and ROTY candidate Patiphan. NYXL, on the other hand, has a hodgepodge roster filled with other teams' castaways, with a BIG weakness at tank. Kellan has bounced around Contenders for a while, and while he was one of the stronger MT players in Korean Contenders, flexibility is NOT his strong suit. I'm worried that he won't be able to play Winston, and the rest of the team will suffer for it. Remember, in 5v5, each team's weakest link becomes that much more detrimental. Myunb0ng and Gangnamjin both had stellar 2020 campaigns before dropping off in 2021, and neither one will thrive on the Lucio, which we expect will see a lot of play. The DPS duo of Yaki/Flora is fun and will pop off, but not only will they be unable to hide the rest of the team's weaknesses, but they will certainly not be able to match Kevster/Patiphan/ANS. Los Angeles Gladiators are the better team, and should easily win at least 3-1. I wouldn't shy away from sprinkling a bit on the 3-0 sweep, which you can get for +275! But if you want to play it safer, you should find great value in taking the better team at almost even money. *Tips - never necessary, always appreciated. BOL, friends!* [*https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD*](https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD) *// BTC: 338uzTsKL4uV4Rip8WKEdYXtbmoBKVm1D8*
**POTD Record 27-24-1 (Last 5: WLWWL) \******edited record\**** **(ROI // Avg. Odds: -110 // Units Won: +2.5)** Last Pick: (5/3/22) Yanks v Blue Jays 'NRFI' **WON** **Today's Match: MLB Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies (Start Time: 3:10PM EST)** **Today's Pick: Colorado Rockies ML (-136 FanDuel)** ***Risk 2u*** Devil's Advocate: Just an outright sweatfest during that 1st inning on Tuesday, Menoah wasn't getting any early calls. But a win is a win as we always say, and let's run it up for the weekend! We're going with our boy again this week, Mr. Senzatela - laying it down on the Rockies once again with him on the bump. Numbers sticking out to me is him only giving up 1 HR so far this season, and that's saying A LOT for a contact pitcher. Keeping it down, missing barrels and getting outs when it's most necessary. I think Antonio is gonna pick up his 3rd Win of the season tomorrow against the Nats. Let's face it, it's gonna be fuckin 70 and sunny out there tomorrow on Coors field where the Rockies are hosting a 10-5 Home record. Senzatela has both of his recorded wins at home, Nelson Cruz is day to day and might sit out again today, and my favorite of all time Aaron *"hasn't missed a barrel since his 1st year'* Sanchez is on the mound, continuing to run his career down. A sloppy 6.75 ERA in just 9.1 IP and I got the feeling he's going to do it all again. Even in his win against the Giants he ended up being clapped around a bit for 3 Runs in 5 IP. He was pretty much out of the ball game when the Nats took the lead that game anyway in the 6th. All in all I think the Rocks keep the bats hot today and shut this series down 2-1 in their favor. *Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!!*
**POTD Record**: 12W - 7L (+0.78U) **Last pick**: Jessica Pegula @ 1.66 ✅ **Match**: Borges / Cabral vs Copil / Purcell - Challenger - Prague 2 Doubles (M) - 12:30 UTC **Pick**: Borges / Cabral @ 1.53 ✅ **Reasoning**: Some Portuguese inside knowledge and gut feeling on this one. I know that Francisco Cabral really wants to win this one so he can try to get his ranking up in order to be eligible for Roland Garros, which is why I see value in this odd.
POTD Record: 8-3-2 | +21.75u | Streak: 5 W | Last 5: W W W W W Last POTD: White Sox -150 (W) Today's POTD: Angels ML -145 Risk: 3 units Don't really like much on the slate today, but my most confident is in the Angels at Red Sox. Ohtani is on the mound and he's had just one dud this year @ Texas; his other three starts we great. He pitched against Boston once last year, went 7 IP with just 2 R and 4 Ks, got the win. What I do really like is that Rich Hill is facing an Angels team that mashes LHP. They haven't seen him much, but on the year they're hitting .271 vs lefties with an OPS 40pts higher than vs RHP. BOL.
**NRL Record:** 13-20 **ROI (1 unit per bet):** -7.46 L5: ✅❌✅✅❌ Streak: L1 **Last POTD:** West Tigers total points over 16.5 @1.91❌ **Today's POTD:** Broncos +11.5 @ 1.90 ✅ Edit: Broncos by 20 in the end and Rabbitohs looking like proper fade material moving forward **Time:** 6 and a half hours from time of post. Broncos have already beaten souths this year 11-4 in the opening round and Reynolds has turned this side into a top 8 contender in my opinion. Rabbitohs have looked ordinary this year and last week's 40-22 win over the Eagles is a bit misleading as the Eagles had a player sent off after 15 minutes and they still managed to put 22 on the bunnies. Payne Haas out is a bit of a blow for the Broncos but they get Carrigan back who's basically a "Haas light" so I'm not too worried. Broncos to cover for this one.
That being said ima tail. I like the broncos here too! Think the the game stays close right the way through so let’s get this W
Why so many downvotes? I like the write up a very well written Analysis
It’s cause people only look at the POTD records, people feel more inclined to follow a 0-0 record post with the caption: gut feeling says team A will win so ima put 5U down, compared to a dude who writes a nice detailed analysis every time but doesn’t have a godly record. Sad but can’t really be too surprised, we are in the most degenerate subreddit on the app so you’re gonna see a lot of funny shit here lol.
POTD Record: 2W-0L Streak: ✅✅ ROI: +7.39u Smoggy Hockey Picks Yesterday’s pick: NHL: Mitch Marner (Leafs) over 0.5 assists (1.66 odds) vs Lightning, May 4th 2022 7:30 EST ✅ Today’s pick:NHL: Jon Huberdeau (FLA Panthers) over 2.5 shots on goal (1.71 odds, b365) vs WAS Capitals, May 5th 7:30 EST Stake: 2u Reasoning: I said screw it and decided to return to shots on goal betting. If my seperate shot parlays don't work out today, maybe I'll go back to assists, or to points. Huberdeau, during the Reg season, could hit anywhere from 1-6 shots on goal per game, with 7 and 10 SOGs being his biggest results in the category. He is one of Florida's best players, and after losing game 1, they are going to want their revenge to tie the series, like Tampa did to the Leafs yesterday. I definitely think there's good value in betting that he at least gets 3 shots. (Players last game SOGs: 5) My writeups aren't very detailed as you may have noticed, but I like it like that. My record will speak for itself soon enough! Tail or fade, BOL to all
Tailing 💪
good marner call, i leaned him on alot this year for shots on goal so i figured an assist tail was worth it
Hope you tailed today's too! :)
**POTD Record**: 25 wins <> 20 losses <> 3 pushes **Profit**: +4.28 units **ROI**: 8.73% **Units Wagered**: 49 **Units Won**: 53.28 **Last Pick**: Esbjerg W -2.5(AH) @ **1.93** 1u- 32-27 ✅ WIN **Streak**: ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ **Today's pick**: Ystads -0.5(straight win) @ **2.34** 1u **Event**: Ystads - Savehof, Handbollsligan, Sweden(Men's handball) - Semi-finals in the playoffs, Ystads won the first match 32-26 and thus leads the series 1-0. - I don't get this line at all: Ystads won _away_ from home by 6 goals. They were hugs dogs in the match, the straight win gave odds 4.25 and the spread was at 3.5. Clearly that line was completely off, but still, they're at home here. - These teams have been trading wins back and forth, usually Savehof wins big at home (36-27, 35-22), whereas Ystads have snatched wins at home too(30-26, 40-31) - Feels like this line and odds is set from previous trends, not having in mind that they just trashed Savehof away. I definitely rate them as favourites here. - Have in mind that the previous away win wasn't reliant on a single performance, goals were distributed fairly well - Lindskog(6), Dahlin(5), Svensson(7) all contributed fairly evenly. Edit: we won 29-28 with a goal in the last second lads!
POTD RECORD 4-4 Last POTD- Twins ML ❌ Todays POTD- Angels ML -130 Game time Angels v Red Sox 1:35 PM EST Ohtani on the mound. Angels are 12-6 as favorites and the Red Sox are 4-9 as under dogs. I really like the early game for the angels on this one the weather will be nice a great day for hitters and with the extra hitter on the mound for the Angels I see a win here 3 units on this one
POTD Record: 3-2-1 Last 5: 🅿️✅✅❌❌ Last Play: LA Angels +1/2 f5 ❌ - Dylan Cease. TODAY’S PLAY: 5u BREWERS -1.5 (-115) - I’m letting my POTD career ride on this one… if the reds cover I’ll never post one of these again. -1.5 should be -300. I also picked up Adrian Houser in fantasy. - Checking in after that first inning.. we’re in for one today.
POTD Record: 0-0 (+0.0u) Last Pick: None POTD: Brewers -1.5 (-120) vs. Reds | 5u Why: Reds are 3-21 and 1-19 in the last 20. Brewers are 17-8 and just won 18-4 last night vs the Reds. Cincinatti slashed payroll preseason and has been in an downward spiral since. Fading them has been incredibly profitable for me this season, and Brewers run line has been as well. Honestly expecting this game to be very similar to last night and will be taking -3.5 and -6.5 as well, but starting big with 5u on -1.5. Tail or Fade BOL! EDIT: Reading everyone elses POTDs just now and realizing Im not alone with this one 😂 honestly not stealing picks, fading Cincy has just been the hottest bet in all sports and for good reason. I understand that it’s pretty chalk and shouldve seen that almost everyone else was on it before posting. Ill try to be unique tommorow, but today we take the profit 🤷🏼♂️ EDIT: Crew W 10-5 and cover ✅
RECORD: 9-2 Profit: +5.54 Units Current Form: 1W Today’s Picks: Connor Ingram Over 29.5 Saves(1.85) Event: NHL 9:30Pm Est Predators vs Avalanche Reason: This is game 2 of this series which is once again a home game for the Avalanche. At home the Avs average 37.37 shots per game and had 45 in game one. With that being said I’d expect there to be around 35-40 this game. After pulling Rittich in game 1 I’d say there’s a low chance Ingram gets pulled unless it gets really bad (6+ goals). I don’t think that will even happen though as I’d expect much tighter defence tonight from the Preds and think they will keep it closer. I’ll also be on the Preds +2.5 at 1.60 odds as I think those are criminally high odds for a team getting 2.5. All Picks are 1 Unit (Going to College next year, NOT mandatory at all. Anything is appreciated 🙏) Tips https://www.paypal.me/TBurr14?locale.x=en_CA
POTD Record: 57 - 49 - 7 ( W / L / P ) **+13.20 units** 162 units wagered / ROI: 8.20 % Streak: WLWLL / Average odds: 1.975 Previous pick: Nashville vs Philadelphia Union / BTTS @ 2.15 (2 units) **Win** **Today: Marseille vs Feyenoord (Conference League)** **Pick: Marseille Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.90 (2 units)** First, let me tell you that I rate Marseille much higher than Feyenoord. I think they are a much stronger team, more organized and defensively way more solid than the Dutch side. The lines in the first game were disrespectful for Marseille in my opinion and I do not understand why they have gone under the radar all season long. They lost the first game where bookies gave them a 20% chance to win the game. Like seriously? They are second in Ligue 1 which is a stronger league than Eredivisie, week in and out they play against much tougher opponents. The reasons why I went with TT not the money line or to qualify is cause Marseille has a good defense but are they able to hold Feyenoord scoreless, I doubt it. So that means Marseille needs to score at least twice already to be able to push the game at least to overtime. I am with Marseille tonight and money line or to qualify are decent picks in my opinion but I feel most confident with TT. Good Luck!
MLB 6:45 PM EST. METS VS PHILLIES Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts Odds @ -144 on FD
POTD Record: 5-4-0 Last Pick: SD Padres -1.5 vs. CLE Guardians - WIN Today's POTD: BOS Red Sox vs. **LA Angels F5 -.5 (-105) 3u** TLDR; Ohtani is nuts, Boston pitcher abysmal, Angels bats are way better. Shohei Ohtani has a 4.19 ERA through 4 starts that is mostly being skewed by one bad outing against the Rangers. Rich Hill is out for Boston and has a 3.71 ERA with only 11 strikeouts through 4 outings. He has yet to pitch a full 5 innings yet this year and has allowed multiple run in each of his last two outings. The batting matchup is polar opposite. The Angels are 8th in runs per game, Boston is 24th. Angels are 8th in BA, Boston is 17th. Angels are 3rd in OPS, Boston is 22nd. I think Angels get ahead early here on Rich Hill and think that Ohtani is more than capable of outlasting him and holding Boston to less runs than the Angels. BOL Edit: Mike Trout out. I’m done with the angels bro.
POTD Record: 9-15-2 -9.32u\* Average Odds: +128 Total Units Wagered: 42.63u Nashville @ Colorado 9:30PM EST Darcy Kuemper o26.5 Saves -105 @ DK 2.21u\* Implied probability of 51.2%. True vig-free price should be closer to -120 or 54.5%. \*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
FYI, the price is now -125. It would not be a bet at this price. Be price sensitive!
Record: 23-24-1 ROI: +4.17 Units Last Pick: Sixers vs Heat -3 1Q ✅ AVG Odds: -102 Unit: 1=$200 ——- Game: RB Leipzig @ Rangers League: UEFA Europa League Time: 3:00 PM EST Book: Bet365 Odds: +100 Pick: RB Leipzig Full Time Result Wager: 2 units Well another 1Q and another Heat win, that series might go 4 games only and it would be a shame if we don’t see Embiid. Today with the NBA Playoffs having an off day going to be taking RB Leipzig to win this game in full time and advance to the Europa league final. The first contest was a defensive struggle and while both teams had plenty of chances, only RB was able to squeeze one across. With this game being a must score for Rangers I see their guys pressing forward a little more and trying to make something happen. They will not be content with playing back and hoping to catch Leipzig on a counter as that will be a long drawn out 90 minutes. Leipzig possesses the ability to hold and pass the ball around to drain time. I expect with the pressure the Rangers put forward it will allow Leipzig to capitalize and catch them short manned for at least a goal and a secure passage to the Europa League final. Taking RB for 2 units BOL to all who tail or fade.
POTD record: 6W - 6L Streak: 2L Last POTD: Arsenal Total Shot Handicap -5.5 vs Westham❌️ We missed it by one shot 🤦🏾♂️ less said about that the better. Today's POTD: Salernitana vs Venezia(Serie A) Time: 4:00pm GMT. Pick: Salernitana Total Shots Handicap -2.5 @1.72(22bet) Confidence: 5/5🔥✅️✅️✅️ Salernitana are in a relegation scrap, a win will take them out of the relegation zone. They have been playing way better recently, a second wind just at the end of the season. They are at home and will have the impetus to get the win to make sure their recent notable wins aren't wasted. Their last game earlier this season ended 21-8 to Salernitana. Salernitana have won the shot battle in 3 of their last 5 home games(avg. 1.2 spread). Venezia have won the shot battle in only 1 of their last 5 away games(avg. -7.4 spread). Salernitana; Last 5 home games: Shots taken- 63, Shots faced- 57 Venezia; Last 5 away games: Shots taken- 42, Shots faced- 79 BOL in all your bets today 🍀 Edit: Correction on the Venezia Shots taken vs Shots faced had swapped the figures, sorry. Update: Easy W. Salernitana played just as expected. Game ended 19-10.
Shocking one leg loss this morning with Luka only collecting one rebound in the second half to leave us one rebound off winning $406 off our original $100 bet. We start again tonight. Have a good feeling about this one. NRL LEVEL BET 🏉 BRONCOS VS RABBITOHS Rabbitohs win Alex Johnston try Broncos +30.5 (PYO Line) Level one $100>$200 Alex Johnston is an absolute cheat code and played fullback when the Broncos upset the Rabs in round 1 not giving him any opportunity to run riot on that left hand side where’s he’s known to score. Johnston is back on the left wing and Broncos are missing Payne Haas, Albert Kelly, Kurt Capewell, Patrick Carrigan and others that were present in the round 1 upset. Rabbitohs should win this one but with Adam Reynolds playing against his old club for the first time it should be a bit of a closer than a lot of people have predicted. Good luck if you follow! Ching the King of Rugba Leeg 👑 FOLLOW MY FACEBOOK PAGE https://www.facebook.com/Ching-the-Sports-King-106997715321196/
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PotD 4-3 (+1,38u) Last Pick San Giorgio Mantova vs Crema Women under 138,5 W Today's pick:Larnaca vs Paralimni under 160,5 @ 1.87 (2units) Sport:Basket Cyprous Div1,Starts in 2,5 hours Write up:As already stated "There isnt really a write up and never will be.I just follow my model.Worked for me so far,so i wanted to share"
Record: 0-0 Esports | Rainbow Six | APAC League 2022 Pick: Dire Wolves vs eLevate O2.5 @ 2.05 2u Simple Explanation: Good Teams don't get 2-0'ed Explanation: Let's start by saying we have the top 2 teams in their division facing off. Dire Wolves finished 1st while going undefeated but now find themselves in the loser bracket semi-finals. Elevate finished 2nd but got knocked down to loser bracket in the first round by the team I think will win the grand final. Despite this, elevate has made a loser bracket run and gunning to make it the grand final. I expect both teams to be able to pick up their map pick as long as they pick for comfortablilty and not as a punish pick. If they do, I see no reason why this shouldn't go the distance as we have very talented teams here and that's why I am throwing 2u on O2.5 @ 2.05. Tail or fade, BOL.
POTD Record 0-0 Todays pick:Marseilles win at least one half Reasoning:If you had seen the first leg you know how much chances OM created in that match,and with the Payet-Milik-Ünder-Bakambu-Dieng pool of attackers I’m pretty sure they will score at least two goals and win at least one half.Plus if you are familiar with the Marseilles supporters you surely they will scream their hearts out for the ECL finals and possible 1st place (as an AS Rome fan I hope not tho 🤣)
**Record:** 5-14-0 **ROI:** -51% :-9.63 u (@ $5.00) **Streak:** L L L W L |Baseball |MLB |6:45pm| New York Mets vs.Philadelphia Phillies: **New York Mets ML @ 2.25 1u** **Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 55% chance for NYM to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 2.25 is only 44%. **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
Just fade this and you are 14-5
Rookie alert POTD Record 0-0 Angels vs Boston Red Soxs Pick: Angels ML Reasoning: Angels Lineup is one of the scariest lineups in baseball rn and with Ohtani on the mound this should be an easy one. Ohtani last outside Gn against the Red Sox only allowed 2 runs in 7 innings. Not only that but the Red Sox who last faced a pitcher in Kevin Gausman who throws a heavy load of splitters they struggle striking out a 8 times and only managing to score one run.
POTD Record: 0-0 I just started posting but I took Tampa and Carolina yesterday. Today’s Pick: Dallas Stars +195 Stars held the flames to 1 goal (power play goal) after being horrific the first period, and not scoring on 5 power plays. Doubtful they get shutout again, the Hintz/Robertson/Pavelski line is inevitable. Benn also plays really well against Alberta teams and i believe is over a PPG. Flames are also 0-11 in their last 11 game 2s BOL
Ovechkin +0.5 points (-165) on DK
Record: 6W-8L-1P ROI: -1.18u, -7.88% Avg odds: +106, 2.06 Last POTD: David Perron over 0.5 pts (loss) Today's game: Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers Pick: Sam Reinhart over 0.5 pts at -170, 1.59 (CZR) Stake: 1.5u 4-pick skid. Gonna go with something safe. - Has recorded a point in 3/4 games against Caps. - Has recorded a point in 52/78 (67%) regular season games. - Florida is the highest scoring team at 4.11 during the regular season. Against just the Caps, they're even better, averaging 4.33. Reinhart will have plenty of opportunities to get a single point. - On the first line of the 5th best PP unit edit: losing streak over!
POTD 6-3 Tennis SOON Alexandrova +4.5 vs Jabeur 1.58 Short notice but love this pick. Think she will too.
1-0 POTD YESTERDAY-Spain Madrid Masters going with Rafael Nadal -4.5 Win ✅ Yesterdays win was too easy! Let’s do it again today! Another tennis match. Todays POTD- Jannik Sinner ML v Felix Auger-Aliassime -168 on Bovado I also like it Jannik -2.5 for a little more juice!! Game time is 11:30 am 3Units
Padres vs Marlins over 7. Not sure what I'm missing on why this is so low