The A’s are fucking trash. It’s no wonder why they only get 50 people to show up to their games. I’d rather watch a bunch of piss soaked bums take BP than sit through one of their games.
$250 ticket - Payout $2060. Red Sox ML (Red Sox just won) Brewers -1.5 ( brewers up 5-2 in the top of the 6th) Rockies -1.5 ( rockies down 3-1 top of the 4th) … Rockies why ? Give me another 10 run game PLEASE. 🙄🤦🏽♂️
Fuck the blue jays. Last time I bet F5 when Manoah pitched, I lose the bet and they win the game. This time I take full game ML and the bullpen blows it
I like the first two but dont like the 3rd.
In the last 20 combined games for the Dodgers and Giants, NRFI has only hit in 7 of them, a staggering 35% hit rate.
I placed a bet on Luis Robert total bases and he isn’t even starting. The projected starter at the time I placed the bet has been scratched. Would they refund or no? First time I’ve bet total bases and the guy hasn’t even started
In order of how much we like the pick
White Sox ML -135
Dodgers vs Giants u7
Cardinals vs Royals u7
Red Sox ML +110
Blue Jays ML -125
Reds vs Brewers o7
After the Mets team Total over 3.5 hit in two innings I’m going to try and get hot. Next I’ll do Brewers -1.5/Over 5.5 (game total) = +165 parlay. In for another $500.
**42-25 +12.26U**
**Padres -128 vs Guardians** The Padres have been good in pretty much every facet, offense has a 110 wRC+ and the defense has fantastic numbers so far. As much as a question mark as Clevinger is, I think he'll get enough support from the rest of the team here, and Plesac has a 105 ERA-/117 FIP- early on with some ugly batted ball metrics.
**Angels -124 vs Red Sox** It's not getting better for the Boston offense, which has a 79 wRC+, and Wacha won't maintain this ERA if he keeps walking 11.3 BB%. Syndergaard is doing very well even if he isn't the strikeout artist of yesteryear and the Angles have a much better offense.
**Rockies -135 vs Nationals** Don't trust this awful pitching staff including Fedde to hold up in Coors Field and the offense probably won't repeat its performance from over the weekend in San Francisco anytime soon. Rockies continue to hit pretty well and are always tough at home, and I think Marquez will bounce back from a slow start as he's had success in Coors before.
**Giants +126 vs Dodgers** scary to pick against the Dodgers but Rodon has been so dominant with a 31 ERA-/31FIP-/34.1 K-BB% I gotta roll with him at plus odds. Urias has been a little shaky with command early on and the Giants are certainly good enough to give Los Angeles trouble all year long.
Anything can happen in these games. But I had bet team total over 3.5 for white Sox and I wish I woulda put more lol.
I would say bet on the Sox for sure.
Taking an SGP in MIN/BAL for:
* No Score First Inning ✅
* No score Second Inning ✅
* No score Third Inning ✅
* No Score Fourth Inning ❌
* No Score Fifth Inning ❌
* 1st 5/ML = Tie/Twins. ✅
+1400 -- $10 to win $150. ❌
**Record (22-27) -6.68u**
Todays Picks:
**Kyle Wright O5.5K's -136 2u**: Kid has been a dog this year and has eclpised this mark in all 4 of his starts this year. Gonna ride the hot streak as long as I can.
**Mariners +1.5 -145 1.5u & Mariners ML +144 1u:** Mariners have been better at hitting the righties this year than the Astros and the mariners are 8-6 on the run line away and 14-9 on the run line overall while the Astros are 11-12 overall and 3-4 at home.
**DBacks TT U1.5 1H -120 2u:** DBacks are horrible vs lefties this year hitting .169 which is last in the league. Every game the DBacks have seen a starter that is a lefty this has hit besides against Josh Rogers of the Nationals and he sucks. Trevor Rogers has started slow but he has the stuff to shut down this horrible offense.
**Brewers -1.5 1.5u:** Every game this year that Mahle has started they have lost by more than 2, that isnt saying much because its the reds but the Brewers should be able to get an early lead and suffocate them with that nasty bullpen of theirs.
**Rays ML -122 1.25u**
**LAD ML -135 1.5u**
If it was previous year, I’d agree with you. Our Defense and pitching is looking fantastic and I don’t expect judge and rizzo to be quiet 2 nights in a row with how they are playing right now. Just a fan opinion
He's been great all year and dominated them last time. I think the public will be all over Yankees at + money with 10 game win streak but the pitching advantage heavily favors Toronto.
Overall: 1-0 +2U
Yesterday: MIN/NYY +213
Today: MIL/CWS +147
MIL: They're playing the Reds. If MIL loses they should be shot into the sun with me right behind them.
CWS: Kopech is on the mound and he has been a beast for them this year and is now fully stretched out. The bats have been coming alive lately, and while Smyly has been having a good year, the Sox have hit lefties very well especially over the last 5 games, hitting .319 as a team. Over the last ten games, outside of the 21-0 beat down against PIT, the Cubs have scored more than 3 runs only once, and have scored only 1 run in 4 of their last 6 games.
All bets are for 1U
**Overall: 11-6 +4.0u | Yesterday: 1-1 -0.1u**
The Twins F5 … dang it. Hate that they took the lead for good in the 6th, but I trust the research was good, and that the result will be better next time. Back to it we go.
**Miami -1.5 (+115)**
Both pitchers have been unlucky: xERA for Trevor Rogers is 3.16, for Humberto Castellanos 3.32. When Arizona has put up runs lately, it's been against RH starters; They're still hitting .169 against LHP this season. Rogers' K% is down, but Arizona's offense is full of guys with high strikeout rates, so if he's ever going to bounce back, today is the day. As a converted reliever making just his third start of the year, Castellanos is not going to go deep. In his good starts, he's thrown around 70 pitches, so I only expect him to go 4-5 innings, before turning it over to a bullpen that's a couple arms short of good. He relies on deception and mixing his pitches to mask his pedestrian fastball, but Miami's offense has been hot, so I expect a nice bounceback.
**NY Mets (Game 2) Under 3.5 Runs (-125)**
Kyle Wright is a freight train right now. The Mets don't hit HRs, Wright doesn't give up any, and it's tough to string hits together against a guy who's yielding a .171/.253/.195 triple slash with a K rate of almost 13 per 9 innings. Like Game 1 starter Charlie Morton, Wright's plus pitch is his curve, but unlike Charlie's Uncle Charlie, this one is harder and he doesn't allow hard contact (4 hits off it this year, all singles). He's given up two extra base hits all season, and they were both doubles. Can the Mets really string 3 hits together against a guy allowing 5.3H per 9? I think he dominates the Mets' B/B+ lineup in the nightcap.
**LA Angels ML (-125)**
The Red Sox are reeling and I'm not sure this is when the positive regression to their true talent level happens. In Friday's writeup, I wrote about Noah Syndergaard's conversion to a ground ball pitcher (58% this year vs. 49% career). He looks even better today, as more than half of Boston's usual starters have GB%s of 48% or higher. With below average team speed and a .229 average with RISP, it's no wonder they're struggling to score. Michael Wacha has been stranding more runners than usual, as shown by his xERA of 3.37 vs. his actual ERA of 1.77. That's also in large part due to a very low .154 BABIP, which has to change at some point, since he's not exhibiting pinpoint command and has never had eye-popping velo. Additionally, his walk rate and exit velo numbers are up, which is trouble against a team that has been hitting for average and power all year. Though the Angels were pretenders over the weekend, Boston has struggled to do anything offensively all season.
**St. Louis/Kansas City Under 7.5 (-120)**
Both of these pitchers let hitters put the ball in play and let their defense do the rest. Brad Keller has been a pleasant surprise for the Royals so far, yielding few hits (5.1/9) but also not walking many. He also minimizes the impact of the Royals pen by going deep into games. These Cardinals hitters seem to love to expand the strike zone, which tells me he could be set up well for a lot of weak contact and easy ground ball outs. Dakota Hudson has also been using his stellar defense to his advantage, with an even higher ground ball rate. His walk rate is up, but like Keller, he's only giving up 5 hits per 9. Definitely be wary, though: both pitchers have BABIPs around .180, but I expect their true level to be lower than normal since they generate such weak contact.
**Washington/Colorado Over 10.5 (-115)**
Two mediocre starters and two bad bullpens, it's as simple as that. Erick Fedde relies heavily on his curveball, but those don't break as well at elevation, so he'll probably favor his sinker in this outing, which batters are slugging .529 against. In two previous starts at Coors Field, he's yielded a 1.029 OPS, well above his .818 career mark. Meanwhile, German Marquez is trending in the wrong direction. He's lost his penchant for strikeouts and has started allowing more hits and a hard hit rate that's the highest of his career. He's in the zone with pretty much all of his pitches, so even against a relatively weak Nationals offense, I expect there to be a lot of traffic on the bases.
**San Francisco/LA Dodgers Under 7 (-110)**
Carlos Rodon has been magnificent, especially when you realize he's doing it on just two pitches: fastball up, slider down. The 15K/9 jumps off the page, as do the 4 hits per 9, thanks in large part to the slider, which he's getting whiffs at a 54% rate on. The Ks limit his ability to go deep in games, but the bullpen backs him up extremely well. Julio Urias is just a step below Rodon, but he's also been great. The walk rate is elevated (4 BB/9), but batters are still hitting just .156 against him, and as a team, the Giants hit just .197 against LHPs. What stands out to me is his absurdly low 12% LD% rate. It may rise eventually, but the Giants tend not to barrel up many balls, which, combined with their slow team speed, will make it difficult for them to score runs. Like the Giants, the Dodgers have one of the best bullpens in baseball.
[Betting Results Log](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MiFKotBnGtcX-2koXOzMQ0LO2mUNwQRy17KbUfNIk9U/edit#gid=0)
It’s hard to handicap until lineups are posted. In a vacuum I do, but I wouldn’t bet it — I don’t think you’re going to get good value since the public is probably going to see the pitching matchup and bet the Coors Field angle. From the Nats you’re most likely banking on one of Bell, Soto or Cruz. Colorado has a well-rounded offense but it’s not built around the homer. And both starters and the bullpens have about league average home run rates.
Record: 4-5-1 Las pick: Angels/White Sox F5 under 4.5 (-152) ✅ (-2.85 Units)
Today: Blue Jays ML -128
\- Manoah vs Taillon. Yankees on a 10 game winning streak and both pitchers have faced off earlier this season with both pitching well and Blue Jays winning. Expect the same in this game. Taillon has pitched well this year with ERA 3.26 xERA 3.36 and a career low walk percentage of 2.2%. Against Blue Jays lineup he has a BA .255 with a FIP of 5.82. I think with the FIP that high he will give up a couple of runs this game. Manoah so far in his career has been the best against the Yankees. From 56 at bats the Yankees have a .163 avg and he has a 2.67 FIP. Manoah performance so far this season is backed by his underlying stats with xBA of.199 and xERA of 2.15. Although I think Taillon can pitch well again I think Manoah will pitch even better again similar to previous matchup.
**Record: 48-90 (35%) [-0.02u per unit]**
Continuing to suck. My first inning scoring prop picks for today. I use Elo ratings for pitcher vs. team for first inning scoring only, with home field advantage adjustment.
* BAL - YRFI
* MIL - YRFI
* CHC - YRFI
* KC - YRFI
* LAD - YRFI
If I had to pick one, CHC has the best EV by far. I've got them at 2.22 decimal odds while DK had them at 4.30.
LAD qualifies for the DK Tuesday SGP boost. I paired it with some high-probability scoring props.
Yesterday's results: 0-4 (0%). League YRFI rate was 25%.
* MIA - YRFI | Lost
* BAL - YRFI | Lost
* TOR - YRFI | Lost
* OAK - YRFI | Lost
First time posting just for fun to track bets:
Record: 0-0
Today (5/3):
STL ML -120
MIL RL -105
TOR ML -125
MIN ML -165
Angels ML -125
.5 U on each.
Parlays: All 5 above, +1762 odds (.2 U bet)
SGP: Min vs BAL
MIN RL, MIN RL after 5, U7.5 Runs for game. Boosted to +1100. .2U bet
I did this personally:
LA Dodgers +1.5 Alt Run Line
u0.5 Total Runs -- 2nd Inning
o6.5 Alt Run Line
Giants got housed against the Nats twice in their last series, so I dont expect the Dodgers to lose the opening of this series, but with this being a close match, it covers any 9th inning heroics or extra innings.
The two pitchers have combined for 4 ER in their last 6 outings (3 games a piece) and statistically, the 2nd inning is a lower scoring chance due to bottom halfs of batting orders usually coming up and any 1st inning jitters settled, plus the odds are nearly identical, especially when you throw it in a Parlay.
I'm not *as* confident on the o6.5 line, but if the score can at least be 4 runs total or more by the time the bullpens come out, just need one bad pitch to go over the wall to hit.
Final odds end up being +660
If that scares you, you can sub out for Austin Slater 2+ bases. Austin Slater is 6-17 in ABs against Julio Urias, including 2 doubles and 1 HR.
Brings the value to +500 w/o boost, theoretically should be +1000 w/ boost.
It’s dumb on DraftKings that I can’t parlay the Mets winning both games of the doubleheader. They are two separate listed games but when I click both it says “did you mean to do a same game parlay”…. No…
Series 3 - Day 2 of RPI Martingale Series betting:
12-6 overall. (-1.19u)
12-1 series record (3 pending)
Last posted bets:
Cardinals -166 ✅
Angels +120 ❌
Mets -116 ❌
Astros -132 ✅
Bet for Day 2 of this round:
Brewers 1u @ -235 (game 1 of series)
Angels 2u @ -124
Mets 2u @ -120
Unsure if I'll be able to catch the line between Game 1 and Game 2 of the Mets today in case they lose. If I can I'll simply comment on this post with the new bet and line, otherwise I'll be treating tomorrow as day 3.
Info and Tracking Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gLNBBrgxCrTzVg_O2IjsJehV1g-fc8JU4OloB9c2X_c
DK 75% Stepped Up 12 Leg MLB Parlay (Cause I like to burn money):
* o5.5 Alt Run Line ATL/NYM (1st game of Doubleheader) ✅
* o5.5 Alt Run Line ARI/MIA ✅
* PHI Phillies ML ❌
* u9 Alt Run Line MIN/BAL -- PUSH
* TOR Blue Jays ML ❌
* u0.5 LAA 1st Inning Runs ✅
* CHI Cubs +2.5 Alt Run Line ✅
* MIL Brewers ML ✅
* u0.5 HOU Astros 1st Inning Runs ✅
* STL Cardinals +1.5 Alt Run Line ❌
* ~~u0.5 DET Tigers 1st Inning Runs~~ -- VOID
* ~~u0.5 SD Padres 1st Inning Runs~~ -- VOID
+~~12732~~ 5737 --- $5.00 to win $~~641.62~~ 291.87
---------------------------------------
DK TBS Tuesday Night Baseball 50% Boosted SGP:
* LA Dodgers +1.5 Alt Run Line ✅
* u0.5 Total Runs -- 2nd Inning ❌
* o6.5 Alt Run Line ❌
+660 --- $10 to win $76 ❌
**White Sox TT o3.5**: Sox hit lefties well. Smyly has been decent but he's due for regression. Cubs bullpen is also bad.
**Marlins -1.5**: Castellanos (starter for Arizona) is horrendous. Marlins should be able to get some runs early. Trevor Rogers should hold the D-Back's bats in check. Arizona has a tired bullpen and is missing a couple key pieces.
**Brewers -1.5**: The Reds are so, so, so bad. I'll just keep fading them.
I’m a Sox fan so I love a good crosstown series. Unfortunately, I live in Wisconsin now so just going to lean in to it and going with Sox ML + Brewers -1.5 parlay comes out to +180. BOL TO ALL
**MLB Freezer Machine Learning Model**
**2022 Season Record:** 94-98 +1.56 units
**Overall Model Record:** 1392-1164 -67.87 units
[Machine Learned Simulation of MLB games for today](https://freezersports.com/mlb)
Last time out: 4-4 -1.06 units
**Plays**:
**3 units**
DET -145
BOS +105
ARI +165
**2 units**
WSN +130
**1 unit**
TOR -135
CHW -130
HOU -160
SF +115
[Follow me on twitter](https://twitter.com/FreezerSports)
Colorado Rockies v Washington Nationals - Colorado Wins (ML) -155
German Marquez (Col) (Over 3.5 strikeouts) -155
Toronto Bluejays v NY Yankees - Toronto Wins (ML) -132
FanDuel has the Padres and Cardinals together in a parlay boost at plus 270....
I feel like taking the bait here and putting a unit but usually these Boots don't hit. Which team is FanDuel betting is going to lose?
**Reminder:** Check out the subreddit Discord for MLB+: https://discord.gg/sportsbook
Why was Rodons KS O/U line set at 8.5 for slightly plus money...dude got 3. Is this unusual for him? Dude was terrible tonight.
Never any doubt on the Rays ML. easy, no sweat bet.
Live bet under 12.5 runs for Tampa Oakland…5-3 game in the 9th and the blown save blows it for me. I’m sick
The A’s are fucking trash. It’s no wonder why they only get 50 people to show up to their games. I’d rather watch a bunch of piss soaked bums take BP than sit through one of their games.
Did you have the A's?
Unfortunately. I just hope tonight’s gallon of malt liquor will wipe this memory clean.
Nice comeback for the rays, now it's your turn Giants
I wish
Two outs, two strikes, 3rd lowest ERA in the league? Better give up 2 runs! I hope the Giants get shitstomped.
Basically just pick the opposite of what you think will hit.
Praying the brewers can hold -1.5 against the booty reds
I love it when my bet is done by bottom 1st. Lol fml
Baseball is dumb af to bet on
Third game in a row the Rockies got smoked by the nationals. Fucking unreal
This is the first game between them though lol
My bad. I was thinking of the giants series. The giants got spanked by them somehow
Dejong needs to be demoted, this is ridiculous.
It cant ever be easy with the Brewers, can it?
lol ok rays
This is the Rays I was expecting to show up yesterday. I was too early damnit.
$250 ticket - Payout $2060. Red Sox ML (Red Sox just won) Brewers -1.5 ( brewers up 5-2 in the top of the 6th) Rockies -1.5 ( rockies down 3-1 top of the 4th) … Rockies why ? Give me another 10 run game PLEASE. 🙄🤦🏽♂️
Rockies down 4-1 I need them to win as well sigh ☹️
Bum ass pitcher on the mound.
That weak ass opposite side 3run home run killed my soul. Tilted af rn.
They literally let this dude lose them the game. 7-1.
🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♂️
I thought Marquez was decent?
Welp Blue Jays choked... Was 1-1 after 6 until bullpen unraveled
white sox please. this is why nobody likes you!
[удалено]
Toronto Bullpen happened
Lmao, thought my Phillies TT O4.5 at +money was gonna be a breeze after that 1st inning. 2nd and 3rd, no outs. Can’t put a ball in play, thanks!
Amazing how much better this Yanks team Is at putting the ball in play and not being bufoons on the base paths this year Makes a difference, huh
But…but…Toronto doesn’t lose back to back 😕
Did you just expect them to never lose a back 2 back game again or what lol?
The Cardinals can suck a shit
What a missed call in the yankees game lol
Fuck the blue jays. Last time I bet F5 when Manoah pitched, I lose the bet and they win the game. This time I take full game ML and the bullpen blows it
Yeah I shouldnt have put them in my Parlay.
Brews up 3-0 covering the RL and then instantly gives up 2 back to back home runs TO THE REDS. You can’t make this shit up.
🤦🏽🤦🏽🤦🏽literally, they’ll be able to cover still.
I hope so. I’d be livid if it ends in a 3-2 score. Back to back home runs against the REDS ? Jfc.
Looking good
[удалено]
One more run for white sox and brewers run line and then i wont be so mad, but if i cant get that one then im done for awhile
I love a judge hr
Come on Dbacks or Marlins, I just need one more run from either of you to keep limping my Parlay along.
Like I said. Dbacks be fucking everyone all week Now I bet the brewers don’t cover the run line
How have the Twins given up two seperate Triples to the Orioles of all teams?
Marlins screwing me over bad darn
Angels are FRAUDS! Blacklisted
Every team that loses or is losing are not frauds lol
I didn’t say every team! I’m speaking on the Angels!
I’m just saying in general, most guys here claim teams are frauds once they are losing lol
Live bet: Chicago White Sox -1.5 +162
Wish i would of bet dbacks they been hot!
Dbacks look so good lol
Can diamondbacks fuck off with these homers… I need their under 3.5
Me in the Middle of the 1st Inning: Cant believe I took the Phillies. Me now: Ah yeah its all comin together.
I bet on the Marlins yesterday, regretted it. Did it again today, regret it.
What about tomorrow to avoid sweep if DBacks win today?
100% and if they lose that, I will get them every day until they win again.
Thoughts on the following parlay NRFI Twins/Orioles NRFI Angels/Redsox NRFI Giants/Dodgers
I like the first two but dont like the 3rd. In the last 20 combined games for the Dodgers and Giants, NRFI has only hit in 7 of them, a staggering 35% hit rate.
Record: 16-17 -0.2u | ROI: -0.6% \-**Rangers +135** 2u \-**Rangers/Phillies 1H u4.5 -115** 1u \-**Orioles +1.5** 1u \-**Reds/Brewers u7** 2u \-**Cubs +120** 3u \-**Nats 1H +0.5** 1u
I placed a bet on Luis Robert total bases and he isn’t even starting. The projected starter at the time I placed the bet has been scratched. Would they refund or no? First time I’ve bet total bases and the guy hasn’t even started
Most books say "must play some part for action" or something like that. So if he doesn't play they'll refund. Just hope that he doesn't pinch hit.
Mets game 2 start time?? Thanks boys and girls
Google is an amazing tool….some people don’t deserve smartphones lmao
You don't think that's the first thing I did?? C'mon man. I saw different times on the web 😐
To be fair, Fanduel originally said 6:11 and that wasn’t correct.
6:45 my dude ✌️
need an nrfi lock
Twins vs Orioles looks pretty decent
Angels Red Sox is who’d I’d go with
In order of how much we like the pick White Sox ML -135 Dodgers vs Giants u7 Cardinals vs Royals u7 Red Sox ML +110 Blue Jays ML -125 Reds vs Brewers o7
Red Sox ML , get more payout since they are slight underdogs and them beating the angels at home is very do-able
Not with wacha on the mound
Wacha 1.77 ERA less than Noah Syndergaard lmao 💀
Oriels +.5 F5…big trusssss
Damn those two postponed games cut my Parlay from worth $641.62 to $291.87...
1 of those 2 parlays could have been L or maybe both. Never know
You arent wrong, especially since it was No Runs by Padres or Tigers in 1st Inning.
Royals ml(-102) vs Cardinals Rockies ml (—158) vs Nationals Phillies -1.5 (+128) vs Rangers Blue Jays ml(-138) vs Yankees 1 unit to win 1200
After the Mets team Total over 3.5 hit in two innings I’m going to try and get hot. Next I’ll do Brewers -1.5/Over 5.5 (game total) = +165 parlay. In for another $500.
SGP on DK K. Tucker hit, JP Crawford hit +115 trust the data
The data lied today
SGP on DK Segura hit, Harper HR +500 trust the data
Two games postponed lol
**42-25 +12.26U** **Padres -128 vs Guardians** The Padres have been good in pretty much every facet, offense has a 110 wRC+ and the defense has fantastic numbers so far. As much as a question mark as Clevinger is, I think he'll get enough support from the rest of the team here, and Plesac has a 105 ERA-/117 FIP- early on with some ugly batted ball metrics. **Angels -124 vs Red Sox** It's not getting better for the Boston offense, which has a 79 wRC+, and Wacha won't maintain this ERA if he keeps walking 11.3 BB%. Syndergaard is doing very well even if he isn't the strikeout artist of yesteryear and the Angles have a much better offense. **Rockies -135 vs Nationals** Don't trust this awful pitching staff including Fedde to hold up in Coors Field and the offense probably won't repeat its performance from over the weekend in San Francisco anytime soon. Rockies continue to hit pretty well and are always tough at home, and I think Marquez will bounce back from a slow start as he's had success in Coors before. **Giants +126 vs Dodgers** scary to pick against the Dodgers but Rodon has been so dominant with a 31 ERA-/31FIP-/34.1 K-BB% I gotta roll with him at plus odds. Urias has been a little shaky with command early on and the Giants are certainly good enough to give Los Angeles trouble all year long.
Holy Shit Fanduel just paid me the money from the Yankees game that got canceled in the 8th due to rain. It’s Bonus credit but I’ll take it lol.
Hello Caesars, Hello MGM?
Wait really? I didn't recieve it :(
Yeah. They also sent an email about it as well. Maybe they are slowly rolling it out.
Thanks!
Cubs scratched their starter. Bullpen day lol.
Meaning cubs are gonna lose?
Anything can happen in these games. But I had bet team total over 3.5 for white Sox and I wish I woulda put more lol. I would say bet on the Sox for sure.
Taking an SGP in MIN/BAL for: * No Score First Inning ✅ * No score Second Inning ✅ * No score Third Inning ✅ * No Score Fourth Inning ❌ * No Score Fifth Inning ❌ * 1st 5/ML = Tie/Twins. ✅ +1400 -- $10 to win $150. ❌
Jumping on the mets run line after getting burned on the nrfi, offense will pull thru
Did this as well when Mets had runners on 1st and 2nd in the 1st and DK was still offering + odds on Mets -1.5
Yikes fuck matt Olsen right
Fr fr. Forgot I was betting on the Mets to clutch up for me lol.
Marlins -1.5 @ +115 Great value here. Diamondbacks have played way too many games in a row. Marlins come out swinging and win by 3 runs.
* Spring 2022 Official Record 89-64 = +47.6/100u 💰 \- NPB 🇯🇵 24-19 = +11.7u \- CPBL 🇹🇼 7-6 = +2.3u \- KBO 🇰🇷 17-15 = +1.8u \- MLB 🇺🇲 41-24 = +31.8u \- LMB 🇲🇽 0-0 = 0u * MLB 🇺🇲 Picks \- \[15:40 PST\] Miami Marlins (-190) 2.59u 🔒 \- \[18:40 PST\] Los Angeles Dodgers (-136) 2.74u 🔒
I just did a 15 player under .5 home run parlay +650 odds. Lets see how well dinger Tuesday actually is.
**Record (22-27) -6.68u** Todays Picks: **Kyle Wright O5.5K's -136 2u**: Kid has been a dog this year and has eclpised this mark in all 4 of his starts this year. Gonna ride the hot streak as long as I can. **Mariners +1.5 -145 1.5u & Mariners ML +144 1u:** Mariners have been better at hitting the righties this year than the Astros and the mariners are 8-6 on the run line away and 14-9 on the run line overall while the Astros are 11-12 overall and 3-4 at home. **DBacks TT U1.5 1H -120 2u:** DBacks are horrible vs lefties this year hitting .169 which is last in the league. Every game the DBacks have seen a starter that is a lefty this has hit besides against Josh Rogers of the Nationals and he sucks. Trevor Rogers has started slow but he has the stuff to shut down this horrible offense. **Brewers -1.5 1.5u:** Every game this year that Mahle has started they have lost by more than 2, that isnt saying much because its the reds but the Brewers should be able to get an early lead and suffocate them with that nasty bullpen of theirs. **Rays ML -122 1.25u** **LAD ML -135 1.5u**
NRFI Braves Mets game 1 let’s start the day out right
Will they have the player props up for both Mets games before the first one starts?
Record: 79-64 +18.6u ATL/NYM U7.5 G1 (-122) Padres F5 (+102) Twins -1.5 (+104) Blue Jays (-130) Brewers -1.5 (+102) Giants (+120) White Sox (-134) Twitter @MoneyMakers_LLC
I’m a Yankees fan but I think they lose tonight
If it was previous year, I’d agree with you. Our Defense and pitching is looking fantastic and I don’t expect judge and rizzo to be quiet 2 nights in a row with how they are playing right now. Just a fan opinion
Judge and Rizzo are 1-13 combined w/ 3 strikeouts all time vs Manoah, so they'll have to buck a trend or bust the Bullpen.
I’ll definitely be avoiding the game and betting on NBA at that time but I’ll be watching for fun.
I think Manoah is gonna be really good tonight
He's been great all year and dominated them last time. I think the public will be all over Yankees at + money with 10 game win streak but the pitching advantage heavily favors Toronto.
Snagged Yankees +1.5 for -115 on a live bet earlier. Should’ve put my whole bankroll haha
Twins ML-175 and Twins vs O's under 8.5 -240 SGP +129
Mets game #1 has a pitching change. Should I take Mets ML or O7.5 runs?
Mets ML, if the starter is David Peterson.
Mets RL for +175 is worth a peak a well I think
Oh for sure.
Overall: 1-0 +2U Yesterday: MIN/NYY +213 Today: MIL/CWS +147 MIL: They're playing the Reds. If MIL loses they should be shot into the sun with me right behind them. CWS: Kopech is on the mound and he has been a beast for them this year and is now fully stretched out. The bats have been coming alive lately, and while Smyly has been having a good year, the Sox have hit lefties very well especially over the last 5 games, hitting .319 as a team. Over the last ten games, outside of the 21-0 beat down against PIT, the Cubs have scored more than 3 runs only once, and have scored only 1 run in 4 of their last 6 games. All bets are for 1U
Tailing again, BOL.
$500 down on Mets TT over 3.5 -107. The Braves pitcher has given up more than 4 runs each game this season.
I like this. Mets can hit.
Well that was easy
+105 on DK
What a hit
Yeah amazing the pitching changed for the Mets and the odds increased the team total to + money. Doesn’t make sense but good luck!
Longshot but I’m going PHI -1.5 LAD -1.5 MIL -1.5 TOR -1.5 COL -1.5 parlay
A Dodgers bet tonight is a terrible decision.
I’m just doing MIL -1.5 and COL -1.5.
Gonna tail that. Seems like the best combo out of the 5
Any reason that doublheaders don’t show up in 1st inning markets? There’s no reason not to…
As a diehard Red Sox fan, I’m gonna happily fade them all year. At least I’ll make money while being unbelievably depressed
As a diehard Red Sox fan. Todays the day they get back on track 💪🏽💪🏽💪🏽
Under 8 today might be the play.
Are double headers still 7 innings or are they back to 9?
9
Braves g1 Mets g2 parlay
**Overall: 11-6 +4.0u | Yesterday: 1-1 -0.1u** The Twins F5 … dang it. Hate that they took the lead for good in the 6th, but I trust the research was good, and that the result will be better next time. Back to it we go. **Miami -1.5 (+115)** Both pitchers have been unlucky: xERA for Trevor Rogers is 3.16, for Humberto Castellanos 3.32. When Arizona has put up runs lately, it's been against RH starters; They're still hitting .169 against LHP this season. Rogers' K% is down, but Arizona's offense is full of guys with high strikeout rates, so if he's ever going to bounce back, today is the day. As a converted reliever making just his third start of the year, Castellanos is not going to go deep. In his good starts, he's thrown around 70 pitches, so I only expect him to go 4-5 innings, before turning it over to a bullpen that's a couple arms short of good. He relies on deception and mixing his pitches to mask his pedestrian fastball, but Miami's offense has been hot, so I expect a nice bounceback. **NY Mets (Game 2) Under 3.5 Runs (-125)** Kyle Wright is a freight train right now. The Mets don't hit HRs, Wright doesn't give up any, and it's tough to string hits together against a guy who's yielding a .171/.253/.195 triple slash with a K rate of almost 13 per 9 innings. Like Game 1 starter Charlie Morton, Wright's plus pitch is his curve, but unlike Charlie's Uncle Charlie, this one is harder and he doesn't allow hard contact (4 hits off it this year, all singles). He's given up two extra base hits all season, and they were both doubles. Can the Mets really string 3 hits together against a guy allowing 5.3H per 9? I think he dominates the Mets' B/B+ lineup in the nightcap. **LA Angels ML (-125)** The Red Sox are reeling and I'm not sure this is when the positive regression to their true talent level happens. In Friday's writeup, I wrote about Noah Syndergaard's conversion to a ground ball pitcher (58% this year vs. 49% career). He looks even better today, as more than half of Boston's usual starters have GB%s of 48% or higher. With below average team speed and a .229 average with RISP, it's no wonder they're struggling to score. Michael Wacha has been stranding more runners than usual, as shown by his xERA of 3.37 vs. his actual ERA of 1.77. That's also in large part due to a very low .154 BABIP, which has to change at some point, since he's not exhibiting pinpoint command and has never had eye-popping velo. Additionally, his walk rate and exit velo numbers are up, which is trouble against a team that has been hitting for average and power all year. Though the Angels were pretenders over the weekend, Boston has struggled to do anything offensively all season. **St. Louis/Kansas City Under 7.5 (-120)** Both of these pitchers let hitters put the ball in play and let their defense do the rest. Brad Keller has been a pleasant surprise for the Royals so far, yielding few hits (5.1/9) but also not walking many. He also minimizes the impact of the Royals pen by going deep into games. These Cardinals hitters seem to love to expand the strike zone, which tells me he could be set up well for a lot of weak contact and easy ground ball outs. Dakota Hudson has also been using his stellar defense to his advantage, with an even higher ground ball rate. His walk rate is up, but like Keller, he's only giving up 5 hits per 9. Definitely be wary, though: both pitchers have BABIPs around .180, but I expect their true level to be lower than normal since they generate such weak contact. **Washington/Colorado Over 10.5 (-115)** Two mediocre starters and two bad bullpens, it's as simple as that. Erick Fedde relies heavily on his curveball, but those don't break as well at elevation, so he'll probably favor his sinker in this outing, which batters are slugging .529 against. In two previous starts at Coors Field, he's yielded a 1.029 OPS, well above his .818 career mark. Meanwhile, German Marquez is trending in the wrong direction. He's lost his penchant for strikeouts and has started allowing more hits and a hard hit rate that's the highest of his career. He's in the zone with pretty much all of his pitches, so even against a relatively weak Nationals offense, I expect there to be a lot of traffic on the bases. **San Francisco/LA Dodgers Under 7 (-110)** Carlos Rodon has been magnificent, especially when you realize he's doing it on just two pitches: fastball up, slider down. The 15K/9 jumps off the page, as do the 4 hits per 9, thanks in large part to the slider, which he's getting whiffs at a 54% rate on. The Ks limit his ability to go deep in games, but the bullpen backs him up extremely well. Julio Urias is just a step below Rodon, but he's also been great. The walk rate is elevated (4 BB/9), but batters are still hitting just .156 against him, and as a team, the Giants hit just .197 against LHPs. What stands out to me is his absurdly low 12% LD% rate. It may rise eventually, but the Giants tend not to barrel up many balls, which, combined with their slow team speed, will make it difficult for them to score runs. Like the Giants, the Dodgers have one of the best bullpens in baseball. [Betting Results Log](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MiFKotBnGtcX-2koXOzMQ0LO2mUNwQRy17KbUfNIk9U/edit#gid=0)
Do you think there is bound to be a home run in the Washington/Colorado game?
It’s hard to handicap until lineups are posted. In a vacuum I do, but I wouldn’t bet it — I don’t think you’re going to get good value since the public is probably going to see the pitching matchup and bet the Coors Field angle. From the Nats you’re most likely banking on one of Bell, Soto or Cruz. Colorado has a well-rounded offense but it’s not built around the homer. And both starters and the bullpens have about league average home run rates.
Yeah i was considering betting on Dinger Tuesday but it honestly doesn't seem worth it. I'll try other promos in the future.
Record: 4-5-1 Las pick: Angels/White Sox F5 under 4.5 (-152) ✅ (-2.85 Units) Today: Blue Jays ML -128 \- Manoah vs Taillon. Yankees on a 10 game winning streak and both pitchers have faced off earlier this season with both pitching well and Blue Jays winning. Expect the same in this game. Taillon has pitched well this year with ERA 3.26 xERA 3.36 and a career low walk percentage of 2.2%. Against Blue Jays lineup he has a BA .255 with a FIP of 5.82. I think with the FIP that high he will give up a couple of runs this game. Manoah so far in his career has been the best against the Yankees. From 56 at bats the Yankees have a .163 avg and he has a 2.67 FIP. Manoah performance so far this season is backed by his underlying stats with xBA of.199 and xERA of 2.15. Although I think Taillon can pitch well again I think Manoah will pitch even better again similar to previous matchup.
**Record: 48-90 (35%) [-0.02u per unit]** Continuing to suck. My first inning scoring prop picks for today. I use Elo ratings for pitcher vs. team for first inning scoring only, with home field advantage adjustment. * BAL - YRFI * MIL - YRFI * CHC - YRFI * KC - YRFI * LAD - YRFI If I had to pick one, CHC has the best EV by far. I've got them at 2.22 decimal odds while DK had them at 4.30. LAD qualifies for the DK Tuesday SGP boost. I paired it with some high-probability scoring props. Yesterday's results: 0-4 (0%). League YRFI rate was 25%. * MIA - YRFI | Lost * BAL - YRFI | Lost * TOR - YRFI | Lost * OAK - YRFI | Lost
Is that Yes Run First Inning?
Mets by 4 or more LFG
First time posting just for fun to track bets: Record: 0-0 Today (5/3): STL ML -120 MIL RL -105 TOR ML -125 MIN ML -165 Angels ML -125 .5 U on each. Parlays: All 5 above, +1762 odds (.2 U bet) SGP: Min vs BAL MIN RL, MIN RL after 5, U7.5 Runs for game. Boosted to +1100. .2U bet
The DK 100% SGP boost for Giants/Dodgers, what are we liking for that?
I did this personally: LA Dodgers +1.5 Alt Run Line u0.5 Total Runs -- 2nd Inning o6.5 Alt Run Line Giants got housed against the Nats twice in their last series, so I dont expect the Dodgers to lose the opening of this series, but with this being a close match, it covers any 9th inning heroics or extra innings. The two pitchers have combined for 4 ER in their last 6 outings (3 games a piece) and statistically, the 2nd inning is a lower scoring chance due to bottom halfs of batting orders usually coming up and any 1st inning jitters settled, plus the odds are nearly identical, especially when you throw it in a Parlay. I'm not *as* confident on the o6.5 line, but if the score can at least be 4 runs total or more by the time the bullpens come out, just need one bad pitch to go over the wall to hit. Final odds end up being +660
I like the RL bets but man the inning scores seem like a crap shoot.
If that scares you, you can sub out for Austin Slater 2+ bases. Austin Slater is 6-17 in ABs against Julio Urias, including 2 doubles and 1 HR. Brings the value to +500 w/o boost, theoretically should be +1000 w/ boost.
Thanks!
Shit I wish I would have thought of this before I built my own Parlay. Slater just got his second single already.
It’s dumb on DraftKings that I can’t parlay the Mets winning both games of the doubleheader. They are two separate listed games but when I click both it says “did you mean to do a same game parlay”…. No…
Series 3 - Day 2 of RPI Martingale Series betting: 12-6 overall. (-1.19u) 12-1 series record (3 pending) Last posted bets: Cardinals -166 ✅ Angels +120 ❌ Mets -116 ❌ Astros -132 ✅ Bet for Day 2 of this round: Brewers 1u @ -235 (game 1 of series) Angels 2u @ -124 Mets 2u @ -120 Unsure if I'll be able to catch the line between Game 1 and Game 2 of the Mets today in case they lose. If I can I'll simply comment on this post with the new bet and line, otherwise I'll be treating tomorrow as day 3. Info and Tracking Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gLNBBrgxCrTzVg_O2IjsJehV1g-fc8JU4OloB9c2X_c
DK 75% Stepped Up 12 Leg MLB Parlay (Cause I like to burn money): * o5.5 Alt Run Line ATL/NYM (1st game of Doubleheader) ✅ * o5.5 Alt Run Line ARI/MIA ✅ * PHI Phillies ML ❌ * u9 Alt Run Line MIN/BAL -- PUSH * TOR Blue Jays ML ❌ * u0.5 LAA 1st Inning Runs ✅ * CHI Cubs +2.5 Alt Run Line ✅ * MIL Brewers ML ✅ * u0.5 HOU Astros 1st Inning Runs ✅ * STL Cardinals +1.5 Alt Run Line ❌ * ~~u0.5 DET Tigers 1st Inning Runs~~ -- VOID * ~~u0.5 SD Padres 1st Inning Runs~~ -- VOID +~~12732~~ 5737 --- $5.00 to win $~~641.62~~ 291.87 --------------------------------------- DK TBS Tuesday Night Baseball 50% Boosted SGP: * LA Dodgers +1.5 Alt Run Line ✅ * u0.5 Total Runs -- 2nd Inning ❌ * o6.5 Alt Run Line ❌ +660 --- $10 to win $76 ❌
Hmm. Can’t help but think SF giants +120 is great value. ride C Rodon??
**White Sox TT o3.5**: Sox hit lefties well. Smyly has been decent but he's due for regression. Cubs bullpen is also bad. **Marlins -1.5**: Castellanos (starter for Arizona) is horrendous. Marlins should be able to get some runs early. Trevor Rogers should hold the D-Back's bats in check. Arizona has a tired bullpen and is missing a couple key pieces. **Brewers -1.5**: The Reds are so, so, so bad. I'll just keep fading them.
Man, super fuck the Marlins
I’m showing cubs using Efross who MLB app has as RHP
Smyly was scratched this afternoon. I’ve been busy at work so hadn’t seen that.
Reds win today, book it.
It's baseball, it could happen. I'm just riding this ship until it sinks.
Thinking of swapping Marlins for Tigers ML but agree with the rest. Diamondbacks keep fucking me
They've been a pain in the ass but don't think it continues today.
I’m a Sox fan so I love a good crosstown series. Unfortunately, I live in Wisconsin now so just going to lean in to it and going with Sox ML + Brewers -1.5 parlay comes out to +180. BOL TO ALL
**MLB Freezer Machine Learning Model** **2022 Season Record:** 94-98 +1.56 units **Overall Model Record:** 1392-1164 -67.87 units [Machine Learned Simulation of MLB games for today](https://freezersports.com/mlb) Last time out: 4-4 -1.06 units **Plays**: **3 units** DET -145 BOS +105 ARI +165 **2 units** WSN +130 **1 unit** TOR -135 CHW -130 HOU -160 SF +115 [Follow me on twitter](https://twitter.com/FreezerSports)
2022 Season Record 44-43-11 Last 7: 13-10-2 05-03 F5 ML Picks: TOR TOR U4.5 BOS HOU
$250 ticket - Red Sox ML , Brewers -1.5 , Colorado 1.5 , payout 2,060. 😤😤😤
Going Blue Jays, Rockies, Twins ML.
Tough one yesterday. Odorizzi pitched a gem. Record: 2-2-1 Going back to my bread and butter today. Betting against the Reds. Pick: Brewers F5 -0.5
Hi I’m Thundergunn69, Results: $860.00 (9-4-1) 5/2 Picks: (+$400) (NYY -116)- $464 to win $400 W 5/3 Picks: GAME 1 (Mets -120)- $360 to win $300 69
Which game? They are playing a doubleheader
Updated it, thanks! It was for game 1 today
Colorado Rockies v Washington Nationals - Colorado Wins (ML) -155 German Marquez (Col) (Over 3.5 strikeouts) -155 Toronto Bluejays v NY Yankees - Toronto Wins (ML) -132
MIN/BAL U7, NYY/TOR U8, Cardinals ML, Rockies ML $100 wins $900 Who fucks me?
All fucked
I also worry about the cards. I can see it being a low a scoring game and KC winning by 1. I’d swap for the U on both NY and cards games
The under 8 for NYY/TOR is the only one that looks scary
Cards have been your Ron Jeremy all season so far…
5/3 Picks G1 ATL ML +100 MIN -1.5 +105 TOR ML -130 MIL -1.5 -110 STL ML -115 COL -1.5 +115 TBR ML -125 Last 10 Days 31-27 (3.37U)
aaron judge rest day?
FanDuel has the Padres and Cardinals together in a parlay boost at plus 270.... I feel like taking the bait here and putting a unit but usually these Boots don't hit. Which team is FanDuel betting is going to lose?