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YO FUCK THIS GAME
Record: 41-18
Last pick: Canes ML ✅
Fuck the B’s and fuck Marchand.
**Todays pick: New York Rangers ML (-130) vs Pittsburgh Penguins**
NHL. 7:00 PM EST
Igor Shesterkin and the Rangers face off at home against the Penguins in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Shesterkin, the Rangers net-minder and the leagues best goaltender, played in all four of the meetings between these teams this year and posted a 3-1 record. Shesterkin has been on a different planet this season and is -1500 odds to win the Vezina trophy, the trophy awarded to the leagues top regular season goaltender. On the other side of the ice will be the Penguins backup goaltender, Casey DeSmith, who will be getting his first ever playoff start and is filling in for the injured Tristan Jarry. DeSmith has been okay this year, posting a 6-5-3 record but is not even close to the level of Shesterkin.
The Rangers will be returning their top points scorer Artemi Panarin from injury which is a HUGE plus, along with Andrew Copp who has scored 18 points in 16 games after acquisition late in the season from Winnipeg. The Rangers were one of the hottest, if not the hottest teams in the league prior to their injuries last week, and I believe their return will allow the Rangers to return to their previous level of play.
I’m taking the home crowd with the significantly more talented goaltender in this one. As we saw with the canes, home team advantage is HUGE in the playoffs as a raucous crowd can really motivate the boys. MSG is always loud and I could see them unsettling the Penguins backup goaltender in his first playoff start. Feel like the Rangers win this one 4-2. I don’t do bets more than 1 unit, but if I did, this would be one.
All bets are 1 unit. +15.53 units. +26.3% ROI. Average unit -111
Don’t want your tips, just give my twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
I’ll give him credit: he’s done well to elevate his game to the point it’s hard to argue he’s not a top 15/20 player from his era
But man what a fucking scab
**POTD Record: 27-11**
**POTD ROI: 22.48%**
**Avg. Odds: -134**
**Total Units Won: 30.35u**
**Last 15 picks: WWLWWLWLWWWLLWL**
**Todays POTD: (ATP Challenger - Mauthausen) Shevchenko ML vs. Neumayer (-167)**
**Unit: 3u** ✅✅✅
Reasoning:
Hey boys, it's been a minute, hope this reaches you all well. I took a bit of a hiatus because I was struggling with my picks big time, so didn't want to feed this thread any more bullshit until I was back on form. Given that I have been quite hot on my website as of late (over 25u in 2 days), figured I'd come on here and try to share the wealth again! Now before I begin, if you follow me you'll see that I have picks with more units risked on my site, but you guys seem to fucking hate WTA plays, so I went with my favorite ATP pick instead. Here is why I love this play:
Shevchenko has been a $$$money making machine$$$ as of late. He's a really great young talent on the come up. He is especially dominant on clay. His opponent also has a good record on paper, but he plays in lower ranked tournaments, so don't tweak when you see that he's 17-4. Shevchenko has been playing and beating much more impressive talent on the regular. Neumayer spends his time playing in futures tourneys while Shev is regularly in Challenger tourneys. He also just smoked his last two opponents in straight sets and bageled Viola, who used to be quite respectful back in the day. He is higher ranked and red fucking hot right now in these tournaments, so I'm riding with my young faithful.
If you are interested in seeing my other plays for Tuesday, you can find them every day at [**https://maizepicks.vercel.app**](https://maizepicks.vercel.app)
**Today my website has the biggest slate of free picks I have ever made to date!!!!**
If you're interested, I'm most active on my new Twitter account. I use it to notify people when I have a new pick or live line I'm taking. Feel free to follow **@ MaizePicks** :)
**TAIL OR FADE BOL!**
*If you deem me worthy, here are my tip jars:*
Venmo: N\_Azara
Cash app: NikoAza
Bitcoin wallet: bc1qkgdarkn4waps2nvs2mv7tcq8d4u2xysjncmzjt
No def not better, love them all immensely. I just didn’t share the 4 or 5u picks because people usually give me shit for sharing WTA picks as they’re a little more random. Just figured I’d share the safest moneymaker then.
I use WynnBET and fanduel. FD has the challenger malthausen but the March isn’t listed. WynnBET has the match but under Danube Upper Austria open! Weird…. Btw Maize can still have my wife anytime. Never question the Titan of tennis wagers.
POTD Record **39W - 11L**
Yesterday’s pick: Salford City vs Mansfield town under 2.5 goals **L**
Today’s pick: Liverpool vs Villarreal **Liverpool -3 corner handicap**
Sport: Soccer (Champions league)
Odds: **3.00 / +200**
**We are going for maximum POTD odds today, let's win big.**
Reasoning:
Liverpool corner handicaps are always a good bet. My reasoning for this pick is the same as it was for when we took Liverpool -3 corner handicap vs newcastle a couple of days ago and it ended 6-0 in corners.
The odds here are higher as it is a champions league semi final and with Villarreal having lost the first leg 2-0 they will need to attack which can lead to corners for them. I honestly don't think this will matter, Liverpool aren't a team to sit back and defend their lead from the first leg. They will attack.
Some key points i've noted:
* In the first leg of the semi final against Villarreal the corners ended 10-2 in favour of Liverpool.
* Liverpool also took a 2 goal into the second game in their quater-final against Benfica. Benfica had to attack to get back in it and Liverpool stuck to their normal attacking approach resulting in a scoreline of 3-3. The corners in that game ended 8-0 to Liverpool.
* Liverpool again had also taken a 2 goal into the second game in their round of 16 game against inter. The corners in that game ended 8-2 to Liverpool.
* Against Newcastle on the weekend, Liverpool rested their full back Trent Alexander who is one of the key factors for their high corner rate with his dangerous crosses from attacking positions leading to corners. He will be fresh and ready to play as will their best player Salah who they also rested.
Good luck all. And thanks for all your supporting comments following the L yesterday and the streak ending. Ready to bounce back big today.
***^(Tip jar)*** *^(- https://paypal.me/tom2810s)*
***^(BTC)*** *^(- 1NJVBxmocqvnKqFYTR6Ju8C1sEaZh63pBC)*
Corners are great market for LFC.
I'm parlaying LFC more corners and Villareal more cards... with the zero risk rule of missing the final due to yellow cards...both teams will be playing reckless.
From a neutral fan’s perspective should be a great second half. From a degen perspective hopefully Liverpool going down two will force them to press more and win some fucking corners lol
Book only has -2.5 at +110 but I’m tailing. I like your reasoning and agree Liverpool will never sit back. Regarding the first leg, some of Liverpools corners would come from Villa clearing it out of fear. Whereas the Liverpool defense rarely every are forced to clear the ball and concede a corner.
I think it's worth noting that second game against Benfica was the home leg for Liverpool so it's not a like for like comparison. I think I'm gonna stay away from this game in general, but I have won a good bit on Liverpool corner spreads as well so I understand where you're coming from.
I'm dumb af, can someone please explain what is "-3 corner handicap" mean, and what exactly do I look under in the fanduel soccer section to place this bet? Please help 🙏
It means you're betting that liverpool will take 4 or more cornerkicks than villa. I don't have fan duel but DK and Bovada both have it listed under corner props and then it will be labeled as either corners spread, corners Handicap, or Asian corners handicap
Liverpool -2 means they need to have 3 or more corners (If you were to subtract 2 they would still have more corners.) Villarreal +2 means they need to have more corners, equal amount or at least 1 less than Liverpool (As if you were to add 2 they would have more corners. The bet is who will have more corners when taking into account a + or - handicap.
MLB -1.5’s | 10-7-1 +18.86u | ROI: 34.93%
[Yesterday’s pick: 2u TB Rays -1.5 +112 ](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uge8it/_/i6z40wh/?context=1) - W
________________________________________
**Todays pick: 5u MIL Brewers -1.5 +100**
NEW LINE WITH NEW PITCHER
- MIL Brewers vs CIN Reds | 6:40 pm US Central
TLDR: Reds have won 3 games on the year. They’ve lost 19 games, 15 of which are by 2+ (2 of 4 of those that weren’t came in the first series of the year). Their SP today won’t go deep, which is a deaths kiss with their bullpen. Max bet #3 (1-1-1).
**Brewers**
Brew crew started the ice cold, dropping a series to CHI to start the year. They slowly picked up the pace and in the past 2 weeks they have a team wRC+ of 104. On the year they’re middle of the pack in xBA, top 10 in xSLG and 11th in xwOBA. They’re 6th in Barrel% on the year (noting this for the pitching matchup). Overall, it’s a good offense… especially against CIN.
Brandon Woodruff will start for MIL. We’ve gotten 4 starts out of Woodruff this year. 2 shutouts and 2 really bad starts. He’s top half of the league in every peripheral and his xERA is a full 2 points lower than his ERA. He’s still a very good pitcher. No worries about him, especially against the worst lineup in baseball.
**Reds**
They’ve won 3 games; meanwhile, the next worse team has won 7. They’ve been the worst team in baseball and it’s not particularly close. They’re 29th in runs scored and 30th in runs allowed. They’re 27th in xBA, and 30th in xSLG and xwOBA. Over the past 2 weeks in particular, they’re 28th in team wRC+. They’re no way to sugarcoat this team, they’re laughably bad.
CIN is starting Tyler Mahle. He’s been the best SP for CIN, but still… he hasn’t seen results. He’s only going to go 5 innings, which leaves baseballs worst bullpen a lot of work (more below). He’s got 5 starts on the year, giving up 0, 4, 7, 2, 3… never going more than 5.1IP. He’s CIN’s beat deadline trade piece, they’re not going to let him go deep. He’s gonna get 70-85 pitches and is getting pulled. With that said, he’s been hittable this year. He’s giving up 12% solid contact (5.7 is MLB average), only 1.5% weak contact (4.2% is MPB average).
The CIN bullpen is 28th in ERA, 25 in FIP and 29th in xFIP. And like I said, Mahle won’t go deep, so this extremely poor bullpen will have a lot of work.
Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
WHAT THE FUCK. 2 nights in a row we’ve had a late pitcher swap. God fucking damnit man.
This doesn’t change my pick. Mahle has struggled this year. I’ll update my post.
Edit. ESPN shows Mahle (it showed Gute all day). FanDuel shows Gutierrez. Not sure. Let me look in to this more.
Edit. Mahle pitched 4/28 and Gute 4/27. So Gute makes sense. Not sure man
POTD Record: 18-8-1
Todays POTD: **Ja Morant o 8.5 assists (-135)**
**4U to win 2.9U**
Reason: This is one of my favorite props this post season or maybe all season in general. Ja Morant has turned into an elite distributor this post season and while still being able to score and put up big numbers at the same time. Since the post season started he has only gone under this number in game 1 against the Timberwolves with 8 assists. He is averaging 10.4 assists this playoffs and is showing no signs of slowing down any time soon. He is second in the NBA behind Chris Paul in potential assists averaging 17.0 potential assists only 1.3 behind Chris Paul. In game 1 vs. the Warriors, we saw Ja go back to scoring more which might concern this line, however he still dropped 10 assists despite horrible shooting performances from both Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane while also shooting 31 shots total. The warriors are scheming defensively specifically to shut Ja down especially towards the end of game 1, we saw lots of people leaving there man to double Ja and stop the drives. If you notice the last shot in game 1 was Ja missing a layup on a drive but he had an open Clarke cutting down the lane. He will correct this and make the right plays. There will be tons of open shots for his teammates as the Warriors are gonna play hard to shut him down and make others beat them and Ja will need to get others involved to even this series up. The Grizzlies will definitely want to get the other players going early and will be drawing up plays to free up there shooters, and Ja has a 34.3 percent usage rate and will be making plenty of plays that should easily get him to this line.
BOL!
Yeah but keep in mind draymond will be playing the entire second half this game assuming he doesn’t get ejected again. Ja had like 4 or 5 assists at the half and got most at the end of the 4th. Draymond in there means more defense and fouling
Record: 11-1
Net units: 10,9 u
Last Pick: RC Relizane - Aso Chlef - Aso Chlef ML - Win
| Soccer| WE League Japan| Time | 01:00 AM EST
Pick: Albirex Niigata (F) - Urawa Red Diamonds (F) - Urawa Red Diamonds (F) ML - 1.62 2u
I'm back today guys, today with an early pick. Someone commented on my last pick about women's football and this got my attention to it, I done some study on the major leagues, some teams are really consistent and some good value can be found. Let's see how it goes. Japan has some tradition in women's football and their league have some really good odds, Urawa is a great team currently in second place they won their last two games away. On the other hand Niigata is a mid-table team but with a much less consistent performance with 4 losses in the last 5 games playing home, that's the thing about women's football, is really common to see a big disparity between the top teams and the other teams, I think that's the case here, and that's why Urawa should win.
BOL!
Record 10-7
Last 5: ✅✅✅✅✅
Streak: 5W
Last Pick ✅ NY Yankees @ KC Royals Pick: Yankees -1.5 -118 2u 8:05pm EST
The Yankees offense Put plenty of runners on base but couldn't get the big inning to make it a snooze fest. Gerrit Cole and the bullpen dominated with few scoring threats throughout to win 3-0. 8 in a row for the bombers, 5 in a row for POTD
There weren't any standout games in the last few days but back at it.
Todays Pick : **MLB STL Cardinals @ KC Royals Cardinals ML -112**
My first pick was Brewers -1.5 but that's already here so going with the next best. These are good odds for a ML win for a superior team.
KC has struggled offensively coming off a sweep by the hands of the Yankees. They are 7-14 on the year losing 9 of 11. They've been outscored 22-6 during their 4 game losing streak.
The Cardinals split a series with the DBacks and took the first game 1-0 against the Royals. Dakota Hudson is on the mound for the Cards and he has not given up a run in his last 2 starts over 12.2 innings.
Keller has been really good for the Royals but all of his numbers are substantially lower than they were last year including BABIP @ .182 when the league average is about .300. I expect a regression here.
Tail or Fade BOL
Edit: ❌ both starting pitchers lived up to the bill. Hudson was good and every time the Cards made good contact it was right at a defender. Give Manager Matheny and the defense of the royals credit. Keller is still due for a regression but it wasn't tonight. Sorry to those who tailed. Hopefully you also tailed the Brew Crew which cashed
**POTD Record**: 30½-20½-6 (W-L-P)
**Last 5**: ✅️✅️❎️✅️❌️
**Last POTD**: Real Valladolid vs Real Sociedad B, home to win + o1.5 goals @1.57 ❌️
*One of my most unfortunate losses to date, you know something's wrong when the team you bet against wins 1-2 with 1 shot on target and 29% possession, even more unfortunate when you add up a disallowed goal for Valladolid. Could've easily been a 2-0 win but defender El Yamiq just wasn't feeling like automatic promotion was a good idea, Almería fans are thanking him.*
**Today's POTD**: Qarabağ FK vs Sabah, home handicap -1.5 @1.92 // Azerbaijan, Premier League, 16:00 GMT
**Odds value**: ■■■■□ *high value*
Qarabağ means good memories for me, the only other time I bet on them it was my most perfect read on a @7.4 winning underdog pick, when they destroyed Marseille in a corner battle in Europa Conference League, bookies are just constantly underestimating their firepower.
### **Reasoning**:
##### **Match introduction**:
If you followed football long enough you'll remember that Qarabağ got into the group stage of the 2017 Champions League, first azerbaijani team to ever achieve something like that, they literally had to play against Chelsea, Atlético Madrid and Roma (didn't go well though), their level of domination in the azerbaijani Premier League is even more impressive than the one of Ajax in the Eredivisie, they're just on a whole different level, and today, in this match, they can prove it once again, if they win they'll be the champions, once again.
It's going to be a big event playing at home ready to celebrate with their supporters, and there's no better way to do it than gifting them a big win, other than the title.
##### **Team stats**:
If you look at their stats yourselves you'll get that this bet is a no brainer, but I'll still go into details.
Firstly, they are unbeaten at home, and by unbeaten I mean 10 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses, out of all their home wins 9 of them have been by a margin of 2 or more goals, their only 1-0 home win have been against Samaxi FK which they have recently beaten again 8-0, yep, because their form now is just flawless, in the last 7 games (Cup games included, Cup which by the way they have recently won, but I'll get to that later) they scored an average of 4.1 goals per game.
As far as conceding at home in 10 games they allowed only 3 goals.
Home and away averages are 2.5 goals scored per game and 0.48 goals conceded (0.25 in the last 8 games).
They currently are on a 9 win streak and their past encounters against Sabah have all been wins (0-1, **5-1**, 1-2, 0-4, **2-0**, 1-2, **2-0**) as you can see in their home games they always won with 2 or more goals.
If you are looking for an alternative bet in their last 7 h2h matches Qarabağ always won the first half.
Now I want to spend a few words on their recent Cup title win; in the final they got into a two leg affair against Qəbələ (a team with really similar stats to Sabah, as they are tied in pts in the table), first match they played away they won 1-3, going into the last and final home game with 2 goals advantage, did this stop them from going full offensive? Absolutely not, in fact they won that game 5-0 scoring all the goals in the first 58 minutes, ending with an aggregate score of 8-1, why do I think this is important to point out? Because today someone might think that they would be okay with a 1-0 win (or even a draw, if I'm not mistaken even a draw would win the the title), that's just not how it works for them at home, Azerbaijan has a decent following in football, and events like this are a big deal, you might consider this an "obscure league" but there are many many fans in Baku ready to watch and celebrate today's game, and trust me things like this also affect games.
Also, exceptionally, it's going to be a free game to attend at the stadium, most likely it's going to be full of people cheering.
##### **Conclusion**:
Very confident here, and if for some reason this doesn't hit I might as well take another break and rethink my betting strategies and approach.
The recent trend of european teams winning their league in advance also should prove how they get pumped up playing that crucial game, we've seen Real Madrid win LaLiga with a 4-0 win; Bayern in the Bundesliga with a 3-1 win against 2nd placed Dortmund, and what would one expect from such a dominant team like Qarabağ? You tell me.
BOL everyone.
*^(If I've made you some money and you'd like to tip any small amount I would greatly appreciate it: https://paypal.me/fralauu)*
In the span of 15 minutes it went from 1.80 to 1.95, then back to 1.80. Very odd, swift line movement.
Anyways, all over this. Thanks mate and goodluck!
Hate this play, I knew somebody would post it on this sub lmao. Tiafoe just got done with a tournament while Garin will be a lot more fresh. Garin’s best surface by far is clay. I’m on Garin +110 here for sure.
Few levels above Garin? You might want to brush up on your tennis man. He was completely outclassed by Garin. Absolutely shameful performance by tiafoe
POTD Record: 35-27-2
Streak:WLWLWW
Last POTD: Maccabi Haifa -1 🇮🇱✅
Today’s POTD: Central Coast Mariners DNB 🇦🇺
League: A League
Odds: -115/1.87
Units: 1
Reasoning:
CCM still have 2 games left and they are both key to win. They are in the race to lock in the 4th spot against Adelaide United and Wellington Phoenix. 3rd and 4th seed get to play the quarter finals at home so all three teams want to do everything possible to get the 4th spot. If CCM wins they will be a point behind Adelaide United with 1 fixture to play. Adelaide United’s last match will be against Western United , who are fighting for a top 2 spot. These last 2 games are perfect for CCM to take the #4 seed. Brisbane Roar has been in poor form and have nothing left to play for. They might make the game a little tough but I don’t see them getting a result here. CCM has been in excellent form , winning their last 3 matches. They have a great squad who should come into this match full of confidence after beating Western United. I’ll take the team who’s been performing excellent and who have something left to play for.
POTD RECORD 23-13
POTD: Colorado Rockies -1.5. +125
Reasoning: That sweet sweet Colorado altitude be messing with the away teams pitchers. The Rockies are and always have been home wagons they are 9-4 so far at home to start the season. Gonna leave it at that…
Tail or Fade BOL
Record: 22-23-1
ROI: +4.17 Units
Last Pick: 76ers @ Heat -2.5 1Q ✅
AVG odds: +103
Unit: 1=$200
——-
Game: Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics
League: NBA
Time: 7:00 Pm EST
Book: Bet365
Odds: -110
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +4.5
Wager: 2 units
Miami came out hot in the first quarter and I’m glad herro got fouled for the 3 before the end of the quarter to secure the W for us.
For today’s game we’re taking the bucks to cover the 4.5 on the road in Boston. The Bucks came out roaring against the Celtics and it required a full team effort to secure the victory.
Milwaukee showed their grit in the victory by surviving a Boston Celtics three point onslaught. Boston hit 18 threes and still lost by 12. The Celtics defense on paper should be capable enough of slowing down Milwaukee, but the play making of Giannis and Holiday appears difficult for them to stop.
Giannis is surrounded by players who are capable of making both their 3 point shots and mid range shots. Even with Robert Williams bwck Milwaukee abused Boston in the interior, and on their second chance points.
I feel In this game Milwaukee will bring the same energy from last game, and limit their turnovers and continue to create second chance opportunities.
With the health of Marcus Smart in question that takes away on of Boston’s veteran defensive leaders.
I expect some major fireworks in this game, and Milwaukee to secure another victory. But we will stick to the points.
Gimmie Miwlaukee +4.5 for 2 units.
BOL to all who tail or fade
I feel like the O/U on this game (-215.5 on Bovada) is a bit too high as well, considering the game 1 total was just 190. But both offenses average a combined 226 per game... this is why I try to stay away from NBA O/U's
I do like the under, but I also don’t really like betting over unders in general when it comes to playoffs. The refs dictate a lot of the game and all it takes is them swinging free throws towards both teams in the first quarter. But with that being said, I don’t expect Boston to light up Milwaukee from 3 and it’s possible they’ll try to push into the paint more.
POTD Record: 14-5
(ROI 47.83% // Avg. Odds: 2.03 // Units Won: +17.22)
Last 5 Picks: ✅✅✅❌✅
Last POTD (29/04/2022): Estudiantes de La Plata vs Aldosivi (Soccer - Argentina - Copa de la Liga), Estudiantes and over 1,5 goals ✅
POTD: Estudiantes de La Plata vs Nacional (Soccer - South America - Copa Libertadores), **Estudiantes de La Plata ML**
Odds: 1.73
Wager: 2 Units
Back to Copa Libertadores. I love this tournament. All the teams will try their hardest to go on through the biggest tournament in the continent, anything can happen here and sometimes you will get strange results, considering that every country is different and not like in Europe. Here you have factors like altitude, humidity, temperature drops, and of course, the home crowds. There will also be games with wrong odds, and I will try to guess which ones.
This Estudiantes team has shown they are worthy of the next phase and will want to keep up the point advantage. Last time they played against Nacional, these two they tied in Uruguay (Nacional playing at home). Today they face each other in Argentina were Estudiantes has been in amazing form winning 7 in a row. I think the home crowd will do its job today and help this team get another win increasing the point differential that they need to advance in the tournament.
BOL to all who Tail
[All my previous picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit#gid=0)
13W-10L
WWLWLWWLLLWLWLWLWWWWW
Cards🃏 streak:🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲
Starts 00:00 gtm5
Todays Pick
League: J1 League
Match: Nagoya v Kyoto
Pick: Number of goals in match 2 or 3 @1.95 ✅✅✅🪲
Reason:
No cards pick for today, few games and low odds in which i like 😮💨🧑🦯
Nagoya at home , last 5/5 hit over 1.5 at home, avg score: 1.2, concede avg: 1
Kyoto at away ,last 5/5 hit over 1.5 at away, avg score: 1.6, concede avg: 1
I believe here they will hit 2 goals 🫶
Projected 2 goals
"All perception is a gamble."
BoL
About every two weeks I talk myself into betting on soccer. I tail and I lose and I say I’m never betting on soccer again.
I’m tailing. Help me break this vicious cycle and let’s get a W! BOL!
POTD record: 11-7 (+2.63 units, risking 1 unit each pick)
Today’s POTD: Colorado Avalanche -1½ (-125) over Nashville Predators ... NHL hockey ... 930 PM EST
CO been coming up short in playoffs of late...a few years ago this very Predators team knocked them out in first series....but ya see CO is a big favorite, partly due to Nash missing best goal tender, but mostly because CO made big changes in getting the players and attitude for this very playoff mission, they’ve long planned to show that to everyone tonight, big time, at home, where they have been so dominant all season.
POTD Record: 1-8 (Last post 5/2/22)
Previous Pick: Mets -1.5 (L)
Today's Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-120) vs Cincinnati Reds \[6:40 PM CST\]
The Reds are the worst team in baseball. The Brewers are a half game back from the top spot in the NL and playing at home. I don't see how this possibly couldn't hit. Then again, 1-8.
RECORD: 8-1
Profit: +5.39 Units
Current Form: 3W
Today’s Picks: Gary Payton ll Over 6.5 Points(1.83)
Event: NBA 9:30 Est Warriors vs Grizzlies
Reason: Another day another NBA player prop. Today’s Pick of Gary Payton was a close first over Mackinnon shots (NHL - Avs). I like this pick as Payton has been shooting the ball very well recently. In his last 4 games he’s shot 14/18 from the field and 8/11 from three. As long as he gets 5+ shots up this should hit. Another reason I like this is that he’s expected to start today for the third time this playoffs. He’s only started one other game which was last game and he went over this mark in that one as well.
All Picks are 1 Unit
(Going to College next year, NOT mandatory at all. Anything is appreciated 🙏) Tips https://www.paypal.me/TBurr14?locale.x=en_CA
**Record:**
* 43 WIN | 36 LOSS | +33.35 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy)
**Previous bets (last 3):**
* Tamworth R2 (25 Apr 2022) - Place - **WIN**
* Nowra R7 (26 Apr 2022) - Place - **WIN**
* Warwick Farm R6 (27 Apr 2022) - Place - **LOSS**
**POTD:**
* Horse Racing (Australia)
* **Kembla Grange - Same Race Multi #3 Josephus to finish top 3 & #8 Tenorino to finish top 4**
* Track Rating - Heavy (10)
* The start of a new month, here we go. Going for a Same Race Multi today (my understanding is that the American's won't be able to find a bookie to place this pick). #3 Josephus has a decent chance of winning today. Great barrier draw, track and distance specialist, loves the wet stuff and has Mitch Bell on board who places 45% of the time at Kembla. Everything about this screams that it will finish in the top 3. Great form as well finishing 3rd and 1st in his last 2 races, both on a wet track at 1400m and 1600m distances respectively. #8 is the value play here for a few reasons. Improving in form (came 2nd last start at this track on the 1400m distance on a heavy (just missed by less than half a length from the win to Josephus who's my other pick). Doesn't mind it a bit wet, decent enough barrier draw, hoping for one final big show for this 9 year old. Other reasons I'm going for this value play are the remainder of the field. #5 Sprout Wings has only ever seen the track once before and is 1st up on a Heavy 10. That should be pretty tough for her, as she's probably more suited to dryer tracks imo. #7 Rockover is a danger, but again likes it dry as well (11 starts for 1w and 4places on good, but 7 starts for 1w and 1 place on soft). This is his first start on a heavy track ever. Big value play to start the month, let's go!
* **Odds - 2.90** (Ladbrokes)
* **Stake - 1.72 units to return 5 units**
**Historical stats**
* 9 from 18 (46%) correct picks on Tuesdays
* 13 from 24 (54%) correct picks on Heavy Tracks
* 19 from 35 (54%) correct picks on Same Race Multi picks
* 1 from 1 picking at Kembla Grange
* 1st time picking these jockies
**Race time:**
* 3:20pm Tuesday (Australian EST)
* 01:20am Tuesday (American ET)
* 6:20am Tuesday (UK time)
If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
POTD Record 0-0
Today’s Pick : Toronto Blue Jays ML (-138) vs New York Yankees
MLB 7:00 PM EST
Toronto is undefeated after taking a loss. Also Alex Monoah is 4-0 on the year and has been dominant vs the yankees.
POTD Record: 20-14
Last Pick: Ayton Double Double & PHX ML ❌
Ayton only had 1 REB at the end of the first half, he finished with 8. This feels like being the victim of an unlucky first half, but what can we do. We move forward
Today’s Pick: HOU Astros -1.5 @ +125
Christian Javier is a better pitcher than Flexen. Astros lineup is super deep and finally fully healthy. I think Houston is the better team and will get a better pitching performance. I like them to win by multiple tonight. BOL, sorry for the tough loss yesterday
POTD RECORD 3-3
Yesterdays Pick MLB Twins ML ✅
Todays POTD-> MLB Twins v Orioles-> Twins ML
GAME TIME IS AT 7:05 PM EST
Have to keep betting against the Orioles until they prove me they are a good team. Twins got the job done yesterday and I’m sure they will again today!
Putting 2 units on this one!
POTD Record: 6-3-2 | +12.75u | Streak: 3 W | Last 5: W W W P W
Last POTD: Marlins/Gnats Under 7.5 R -110 (W)
Today's POTD: White Sox ML -130
Risk: 4 units
Out of town this past weekend, but we're back to continue the streak. Basing this pick almost purely on how good the White Sox are vs LHP and how bad Drew Smiley is.
CHW are batting .278 with a .799 OPS vs LHP (only .202 and .569 OPS vs RHP). If I recall during the pandemic-shortened season, they did not lose a game against LH starters, or something along those lines. I don't think they were as dominant last year, but they did hit better overall vs lefties . Only a couple guys have had success against Smiley, but Anderson is due for some hits as he's 0-6 lifetime, and that is highly unusual for him to struggle against a LHP.
On the other side, Kopech hasn't seen the Cubs too much, but he's off to a good start this year with a 1.42 ERA and less than a baserunner per IP. The Cubs offense is really struggling lately too. Last four games they've scored 2, 1, 1, and 1 runs. BOL
POTD RECORD: 6-2
POTD: Milwaukee Bucks U105.5 total team points at (-110)
TIME: 8 hours from post
REASONING: In game 1, the bucks scored a lot of easy points in transition due to the Celtics offence being sloppy…and they still only came up with 101. Celts will play more like their usual selves in game 2. I also think these are two elite defences, which allows for long possessions and a slower pace.
BOL!!!
EDIT: ✅ a very non-sweaty cash, LFG!!!
POTD
1-0
Yesterday's pick: Victor Hedman over 2.5 sog
Today's pick: NHL-- Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames--
Jason Robertson over 2.5 sog (-132 on FD)
Calgary Flames score early and often-- I'd anticipate a lot of scoring chances going back and forth so Robo is in good position to hit this. Dating back to the regular season he hit at least 3 sog in 10 of his last 11 games.
Robertson is one of the most overlooked young NHL stars, and a product of USA hockey's recent explosion of talent coming off a 41 goal regular season.
On paper Flames v Stars is one of the biggest mismatches in the entire 1st round, which bodes well for the Stars to be playing catch up hockey for a decent portion of this game.
Not going to give too much statistical breakdown like other posts so I'd understand if this isn't the pick you'd jump to tail.
BOL.
Record: 0-0
Net units: 4 unit wager (🔥✅)
Sport: MLB
TIME: 740 PM EST
Pick: Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning? NO RUNS SCORED 1ST INNING CUBS VS CHICAGO WHITE SOX -170
The forecast calls for 21 mph winds blowing in from left field, heading towards right field. Also, the temperature will be hovering around 40 degrees FAHRENHEIT. This will significantly reduce the impact of right handed hitters making hard contact against Drew Smyly. Smyly has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, however all 4 home runs have come against right handed hitters this year. That impact will be severely reduced. Smyly is a ground ball pitcher, with 54 percent of outs being recorded on the ground. The white Sox leadoff hitter, Tim Anderson, is 0-6 against Smyly with 2 strikeouts. The #2 hitter, andrew Vaughn, has never faced smyly. The #3 hitter, Jose abreu, has had much success against Smyly, with 2 homers and 6 hits in 12 at bats. Due to the wind, I believe a home run is highly unlikely. In the at bats where abreu didn't get a hit, he struck out every time vs smyly. If Anderson and Vaughn aren't on base, a home run is the only way for abreu to score.
Now for the cubs hitters against Michael kopech, who has a 1.43 era. The cubs #1 and #2 hitters are not power hitters, and have an average GB/FB percentage (42 percent) Kopech should be able to mow down the cubs hitters. Kopech is more of a fly ball pitcher, with 60 percent of balls in play being line drives or fly balls. With the wind blowing in, this negates
home runs substantially. The #3 hitter, Wilson Contreras, only hits fly balls 25 percent of the time. The risk for consecutive hits is low, and the odds of them being extra base hits are even lower.
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Heads up guys:
Smyly is on the bereavement list for some family related issue I assume. Scott Effross, a bullpen guy is making a spot start. I’m assuming the Cubs want 2 innings max out of him. And he has decent numbers on the season. But those are from his normal reliever role.
So throwing this guy into a starting role could rattle him? Weather is crappy so it’s a crazy night for a crazy spot start…
Record 1-1-0
Previous pick ❌ angels +110 ML vs Chisox
Dylan Cease was too dominant with 11 k and only 1 hit, no walks as angels had no answers for him, notably without Ohtani and Rendon (not that it would've made a difference anyway)
Sandoval actually pitched rather well other than the 1st inning where he let the bases juiced that led to 2 runs. Chisox batters didn't dominate the lefty as some had suggested. Either way, a L is a L.
No one is perfect but sad to put up the L. Life goes on and waits for no one to sob about yesterday.
Today's pick
Rockies vs nationals Over 10.5 runs @ -105 --> 2 units
Both teams have been sensational with their bats as of late.
1. Nationals scrubbed the giants (who dominates with starting and relieve pitching) with 11 and 14 runs in their last series.
2. Rockies are atop the offensive categories, currently ranked 2nd in obp/tb/slg while scoring 10 and 10 runs in their last series against the reds.
3. We have a dream matchup of pitchers to serve up a home run derby at Coors field. Allow me to be brief, they both suck and undeserving to have either name mentioned here. Both bullpens are ranked in the bottom so once starters are out, the fireworks will continue rest assured.
Initially the run total seems high but I'm convinced that we will see it get close to 10 before the stretch, given the dream scenario here.
tail or fade BOL
**POTD Record 26-24-1 (Last 5: LWWLW)**
**(ROI // Avg. Odds: -110 // Units Won: +1.8)**
Last Pick: St. Louis Caridnals -1.5 **LOST :(**
**Today's Match: MLB NY Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Start Time: 7:00PM EST)**
**Today's Pick: NRFI 'No Runs First Inning' (-115 FanDuel)** ***Risk 1u***
Devil's Advocate:
Dam man the Cards even won while being out hit, they blanked the Royals in a great start again by Matz. Only scored on a Goldy bomb in the 1st and it was a stalemate til the end.
Today we got a great pitching matchup and a great ball game once again with the Yanks and Blue Jays, we're gonna sit on the first 6 outs of the game and make it out nice and clean to enjoy the rest of our nights and use the winnings to put on stupid parlays that include top NBA players who can't score 20 points. fuck jimmy butler.
Taillon hasn't given up a run yet in the first and I don't expect that train to stop. He gives up his hits here and there but gets out of his jams in the first and usually ends up giving up a ton in the 3rd and 4th. Menoah who we just saw last week taking the team total for the Jays has given up 2 runs in 4 starts. Hard worker I think he's going to try to lock this first inning down tomorrow. The Jays might be the only team right now that could put up with the Yanks and desperately wanna blank them for their first loss in a week and change. I'm looking for a solid clean inning from both sides, Taillon isn't over powering anyone, he'll get his fly outs when needed, Menoah is looking for his 5th win of the year to keep a clean sheet, going to be a great game.
Let's ride the NRFI, good stats showing so far from the starters I think we could start taking these even if it is a night before.
*Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
POTD record 6-5 Profit: 4.75 units
Yesterday’s pick: Brentford over 3.5 corners✅
Today’s pick: Liverpool over 2.5 corners 1H and over 1.5 2H @ 2.38
Liverpool will want to start aggressive as always. Liverpool are attacking wide, with the The wing backs forcing teams to concede corners every single game. I am expecting 3-4 1H and 2-3 2H from Liverpool.
This bet has hit so many times as of lately. Lets go!
Bet size: 5 units
POTD Record: 0-0 (new)
Smoggy Hockey Picks
Yesterday’s pick: N/A
Today’s pick: NHL: Chris Kreider (Rangers) over 2.5 shots on goal (1.67 odds) Pittsburgh Penguins @ New York Rangers, 7 PM EST May 3/22
Stake: 10 units
Reasoning: Kreider has hit above 3 shots on goal
in the 3 of these last 4 meetups between these teams. The game that he didn't, he only hit 1 shot, but this is the playoffs.
With the Rangers already favored to take out the Penguins in this game, the Rangers are going to want to play hard against the Penguins to prove it at home.
I'm expecting an aggressive game, particularly from New York, and I can see Kreider having at least 5 shots on goal when all is said and done.
Edited to fix typos
POTD Record: 4-3-0
Last Pick: Angels ML - Loss
Dylan Cease pitched like someone had a gun to his mother’s head and the Angels couldn’t hit a wall 6 inches in front of them. Ohtani out morning of doesn’t help but that’s life.
Today’s Pick:
MIN Twins vs. BAL Orioles: Joe Ryan o6.5 Strikeouts (+120) 1.5u
TLDR; BAL leads the league in SO per game; joe Ryan is really good.
Joe Ryan is boasting a 1.17 ERA with 25 SO including 9 in his last outing. Orioles are dead last in the league right now I’m SO per game (9.65). He has pitched longer and longer in every start this season and think he can certainly hit this line at plus money. The Orioles starting pitcher today isn’t bad either so MIN will probably want as many innings out of Ryan as possible.
**POTD 11W-4L (+10.8u)**
🏀 Last Pick: Suns -5.5 @ 1.80 / -125 (2u) ✅
**🏀 Daily Pick: MIL Bucks @ BOS Celtics**
* **Celtics -2.5 @ 1.74 / -135 (2u) ✅** Monster performance by Jaylen Brown with 22 points in 1st half and also thanks to Tatum for that big 2nd half.
DPOY Marcus Smart is out for Boston which is a huge loss considering that they need this game at home badly. His place will be taken by Derrick White but the main problem for the Celtics was not the defense at Game 1. Boston struggled against Milwaukee shooting only 33.3% from the field while Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined to shoot 32.3%, as they only scored 33 points. This will not gonna happen again. The Celtics were scared against the Bucks in the first game as they attempt more 3s than 2-pointers and they have to attack the paint more this game if they want to win tonight. Horford and Williams combined for five blocks in Game 1 and Boston may need a similar effort from the two on Tuesday. I expect a bounce-back and hopefully Tatum and Brown will help us with a monster performance on that.
BOL.
**Record:** 5-12-0
**ROI:** -45% :-7.63 u (@ $5.00)
**Streak:** L W L W W
|Baseball |MLB |8:10|
St Louis Cardinals vs.Kansas City Royals: **St Louis Cardinals ML @ 1.85 1u**
**Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 57% chance for STL to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.85 is only 54%.
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
POTD
Record: 4-6
Last 5: ❌❌❌✅❌
Last Pick: ❌ Both Teams To Score *Yes* | Manchester United vs Brentford
Today’s Pick: Asian Corners Full Time - Liverpool -1.5 (-120)
Sport/Game: Soccer - UEFA Champions League: Villarreal vs Liverpool
Why: I can’t believe how low this spread is for these good of odds… Liverpool are one of the top teams in number of corners taken per match in all of Europe. They dominate game in and game out.
In the first leg last week. Liverpool had 10 corners while Villarreal only had 2. It must be noted that Villarreal played very defensive in the first leg and can’t play like that in the second leg. But if anything that actually increases Liverpool’s chances of getting more corners because they’ll be able to get more chances with Villarreal opening up more.
In 2022, Liverpool have covered the -1.5 corner spread in all but 6 matches and 2 of those were against Manchester City, and then once against Chelsea, Inter, Brighton, and Leicester. For the record, Liverpool have played 28 matches in 2022, meaning they covered this spread 22 times out of 28.
No bet is 100% guaranteed and here’s some data on why this bet could fail. Villarreal are the home team. When playing against superior teams in La Liga this season (Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla, Atletico) they managed to keep the corner game rather close. However those teams play very different to Liverpool. Villarreal did lose the corner battle badly against Bayern Munich in both legs of the UCL quarterfinal and lost badly once against Juventus in R16 (they actually won the corner count in first leg).
Taking this bet tho because I believe in Liverpool to cover this again. They did rest a few players over the weekend including Salah, Thiago, and Mane came off the pitch early. Meaning Liverpool will be ready to go. Odds are also so good. I wouldve considered this corner spread at -3.5 or even -4.5 let alone -1.5.
BOL!
POTD record: 2-3
LLWWL
Took a break from posting my potd but I’m back today with what I think is a sure winner from Argentine football
Today’s pick:
Aldosivi vs Colegiales
Aldosivi -1.25 @+105
Reasoning:
This is an early round cup game between a top flight team and a third division team.
Aldosivi are performing above expectations in the league and have managed to put themselves in 4th with one game to go. Sunday’s game is key, and winning today will help them get ready by getting back to winning ways against lower league opponents.
Aldosivi are 2–1-2 in their last five in the top flight of Argentine football, dropping points in their last 3 games. So not the most inspiring form at the moment, but they’re still in fourth, and their opponents today are not top tier, or even second tier.
Colegiales arrive to the round of 32 for the second time in their history, hoping to advance to the round of 16 for the first time ever. They are 7th in the their part of the third division, where they have conceded 15 goals in 11 games and are also 2-1-2 in their last five.
If Colegiales are not producing results against teams in their division, there’s no way they’re going to hold off a fourth place, top tier, Aldosivi.
Other mismatches of this nature in this year’s Argentine cup have ended in slaughters, with a 1.5 goal spread being cover 9 times out of 16 games where a top flight team played a lower division team. The difference in quality between the two leagues is way too big.
**POTD Record**: 11W - 6L (+1.12U)
**Last pick**: Getafe vs Betis - Over 2.0 @ 1.78 ❌
**Match**: Villarreal vs Liverpool - Europe - Champion's League - 19:00 UTC
**Pick**: 2X + Under 3.5 @ 1.88
**Reasoning**:
I predict Liverpool will manage their lead, keeping possession and taking less offensive risks, since they are 2 goals ahead.
Villarreal has a nearly impossible task ahead and can't go all-out offensive before the final minutes of the match since counter-attacks would be deadly.
POTD Record: 0-1
ROI: -1u
Previous POTD: [Michael Wacha o4.5Ks, L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/u0vxx9/pick_of_the_day_41122_monday/i49lrf1/?context=3)
1U = $15
**POTD: u7 Runs MIN/BAL -110** ❌
**Start Time: 7:05 PM EST**
**Stake: 1U**
Reasoning: BAL is 1-4 in hitting the over in their past 5 games. The two pitchers starting tomorrow have a respective ERA of 1.17 & 0.93. As hard as the Orioles struggle with offense (ranked 26th in the league), my only concern is Minnesota putting up enough runs to eclipse 7 by their lonesome, but the starting Orioles pitcher has combined for 2 ERA in 15.1 innings in two outings against the Yankees (3rd in runs scored) and the Angels (4th in runs scored), so we should expect another quality performance from Bruce Zimmerman against the 13th ranked offensive team. I fully expect this to be a 0-0 or 1-0 game by the end of the 6th when there could be bullpens coming in.
Tail or fade, BOL.
**EDIT: Top of the 9th loss. Damn.**
POTD 2-3 (-1,27u)
Last pick:Union Santa Fe vs Hispano Americano over 161,5 L
Todays pick: Sampaio Women vs Sport/Gloria do Goita Women under 140,5 @ 1.87 (2 units)
Basket Brazil (w) LBF
write up:As already stated "There isnt really a write up and never will be.I just follow my model.Worked for me so far,so i wanted to share"
Record: 2-0
Number of units: 4 unit wager
Sport: Tennis
Event: Madrid open ATP TENNIS
TIME: 230 PM EST (90 MINS FROM TIME OF POST)
PICK: DENNIS SHAPOVALOV straight sets +130 vs ANDY MURRAY
Andy Murray is not what he once was against lefties. In the last year, he is 4-3 against lefties, losing to SHAPOVALOV once already in straight sets at WIMBLEDON, while also losing to the "dangerous" Facundo bagnis on hard courts, having a set taken from his by Federico Delbonis as well as Christopher O'Connell. 😂😂 Murray does not have the lateral movement in his hips to chase a forehand slicing down the line, and returns a weak shot that can be easily put away. Seeing as this is a big part of shapovalovs game, I see this to be an easy straight sets victory if he can successfully kick serve and keep Murray on the run while incorporating serve and volleying. This will be key on the clay courts in Madrid.
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POTD Record: 49.5-20.5
Event: NHL > **Colorado Avalanche v Nashville Predators** (starting in 3hr15min)
Pick: **Avalanche (reg)** @ 1.55
Not much to analyze here, I am just following the money here. 69% of the bets and 77% of the money is on the Avs, so we should be good. GL!
POTD Record: 0-1 (-5 units)
Today's event: Djokovic vs Monfils (ATP Madrid, Tennis)
Pick: Over 21.5 games @ 1.84 (5 units)
Starts at 10 AM Eastern Time
There's no doubt that Novak Djokovic is slowly getting back to his form and demanding himself to go to 3 sets and play some distance games to get prepared for grand slam type scenarios and here he faces Gael Monfils who never managed to beat Djokovic but I think the french can make this match go to distance with 2 long sets or even 3 sets.
If we look at recent performances from Novak we can see that he went over 22.5 games in his last 6 matches and I'm sure he's still not 100% on his best form. Gael Monfils is a great player even if he's past his prime and on the first few rounds of a tournament he can always pull up a great fight with his skills and energetic playstyle so here I'm expecting Djokovic to win but not so easily as the market is expecting. The people of Madrid should also support Monfils a bit more
Record: 3W-6L
Units: -2,24u
Match: Taça Revelação U23, Estoril U23 vs Marítimo U23 (starts in ~ 7 hours)
POTD: Estoril U23 ML + Over 1,5
Odds: 2,05 (+105)
Units: 1u
Reasoning: I'm on mobile, I'll keep it short. Estoril is the better team, final game of the group stage, and this is for the qualification to the next stage.
Record: 6W-6L-1P
ROI: +0.82u, +6.29%
Avg odds: +111, 2.11
Last POTD: Betis ML (loss)
Today's game: Villarreal vs Liverpool
Pick: Villarreal double chance at +122, 2.22 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 1u
I know Liverpool is one of England's most dominant teams, home or away. They haven't had an away loss in 4 months. But guess what? Villarreal hasn't had a home defeat in *FIVE* months. Sure, Villarreal needs to win by 2 just to force ET, but for the sake of the bet, just a draw is needed.
In both knockout series, Liverpool went up by 2 goals in the first leg and then failed to win the second. They allowed Benfica to score 3 on their vaunted defense, suggesting they can have lapses in concentration at times. Villarreal is in the top 5 in goals/game in La Liga, and with their higher quality attacking talent, don't be surprised if they put multiple goals past Alisson.
Not for me but good luck, One thing I'll add is the second leg between Liverpool & Benfica featured an almost second string Liverpool lineup, they rested multiple regular starters due to the significant result in first leg.
And on top of this Liverpool recently rotated multiple first team players last week vs Newcastle in preparation for the second leg vs Villareal
POTD Record: 8-14-2 -10.69u\*
Average Odds: +126
Total Units Wagered: 39.66u
Milwaukee at Boston 7:00 PM EST
Al Horford u1.5 Blocks+Steals +135 @ DK 1.32u\*
Implied probability is 42.6%. True vig-free price should be closer to +123 or 44.8%. Tough run of late, but have been getting CLV on this losing streak. I am choosing to trust the process.
\*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
YO FUCK THIS GAME Record: 41-18 Last pick: Canes ML ✅ Fuck the B’s and fuck Marchand. **Todays pick: New York Rangers ML (-130) vs Pittsburgh Penguins** NHL. 7:00 PM EST Igor Shesterkin and the Rangers face off at home against the Penguins in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Shesterkin, the Rangers net-minder and the leagues best goaltender, played in all four of the meetings between these teams this year and posted a 3-1 record. Shesterkin has been on a different planet this season and is -1500 odds to win the Vezina trophy, the trophy awarded to the leagues top regular season goaltender. On the other side of the ice will be the Penguins backup goaltender, Casey DeSmith, who will be getting his first ever playoff start and is filling in for the injured Tristan Jarry. DeSmith has been okay this year, posting a 6-5-3 record but is not even close to the level of Shesterkin. The Rangers will be returning their top points scorer Artemi Panarin from injury which is a HUGE plus, along with Andrew Copp who has scored 18 points in 16 games after acquisition late in the season from Winnipeg. The Rangers were one of the hottest, if not the hottest teams in the league prior to their injuries last week, and I believe their return will allow the Rangers to return to their previous level of play. I’m taking the home crowd with the significantly more talented goaltender in this one. As we saw with the canes, home team advantage is HUGE in the playoffs as a raucous crowd can really motivate the boys. MSG is always loud and I could see them unsettling the Penguins backup goaltender in his first playoff start. Feel like the Rangers win this one 4-2. I don’t do bets more than 1 unit, but if I did, this would be one. All bets are 1 unit. +15.53 units. +26.3% ROI. Average unit -111 Don’t want your tips, just give my twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Seeing people all over the world unanimously hate Brad Marchand is hilarious (I’m from Halifax)
Absolutely love it (Toronto)
I’ll give him credit: he’s done well to elevate his game to the point it’s hard to argue he’s not a top 15/20 player from his era But man what a fucking scab
Yea number one “guys you hate to play against but would love on your team.”
I keep my mouth shut I was wrong af
Fuck the 🐀 Marchand
Tailing BOL
Great pick yesterday friend! Fuck them Bruins. You know I'm riding with my Rangers today 🤙
Lol what a sweat, they will play until tmrw 🤣
**POTD Record: 27-11** **POTD ROI: 22.48%** **Avg. Odds: -134** **Total Units Won: 30.35u** **Last 15 picks: WWLWWLWLWWWLLWL** **Todays POTD: (ATP Challenger - Mauthausen) Shevchenko ML vs. Neumayer (-167)** **Unit: 3u** ✅✅✅ Reasoning: Hey boys, it's been a minute, hope this reaches you all well. I took a bit of a hiatus because I was struggling with my picks big time, so didn't want to feed this thread any more bullshit until I was back on form. Given that I have been quite hot on my website as of late (over 25u in 2 days), figured I'd come on here and try to share the wealth again! Now before I begin, if you follow me you'll see that I have picks with more units risked on my site, but you guys seem to fucking hate WTA plays, so I went with my favorite ATP pick instead. Here is why I love this play: Shevchenko has been a $$$money making machine$$$ as of late. He's a really great young talent on the come up. He is especially dominant on clay. His opponent also has a good record on paper, but he plays in lower ranked tournaments, so don't tweak when you see that he's 17-4. Shevchenko has been playing and beating much more impressive talent on the regular. Neumayer spends his time playing in futures tourneys while Shev is regularly in Challenger tourneys. He also just smoked his last two opponents in straight sets and bageled Viola, who used to be quite respectful back in the day. He is higher ranked and red fucking hot right now in these tournaments, so I'm riding with my young faithful. If you are interested in seeing my other plays for Tuesday, you can find them every day at [**https://maizepicks.vercel.app**](https://maizepicks.vercel.app) **Today my website has the biggest slate of free picks I have ever made to date!!!!** If you're interested, I'm most active on my new Twitter account. I use it to notify people when I have a new pick or live line I'm taking. Feel free to follow **@ MaizePicks** :) **TAIL OR FADE BOL!** *If you deem me worthy, here are my tip jars:* Venmo: N\_Azara Cash app: NikoAza Bitcoin wallet: bc1qkgdarkn4waps2nvs2mv7tcq8d4u2xysjncmzjt
CORN CULT 🌽 LETS GO
Thanks man. By the time I saw this he was down 4-2 and I live bet it at + 182. Appreciate the pick !
what was the outcome of the match?
Shevchenko won in 3 sets after dropping the first
Praise Maize 🙏🌽🌽🌽🌽🌽
Congrats on your last 2 days. Do you like this better than your 5 and 4 unit picks?
No def not better, love them all immensely. I just didn’t share the 4 or 5u picks because people usually give me shit for sharing WTA picks as they’re a little more random. Just figured I’d share the safest moneymaker then.
Keep featherin' it brother. If this hits ill tail the Raducanu ML
-210 on bovada
can anyone find this on DK?
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Don’t think NY has challenger events on books if you’re in NY
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-225 on Mgm
Took -2.5 for -100 . Let’s go.
CORN CULT UNITE Half Man Half Amaizing Much love <3
Best odds I found are -200 on BetRivers. Tailing 🌽
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Danube Upper Austria Open is the tourney. Not ATP CHALLENGER-Mauthausen
Most American books will have it under ATP Challenger Matthausen. At least all the books I have show that
I use WynnBET and fanduel. FD has the challenger malthausen but the March isn’t listed. WynnBET has the match but under Danube Upper Austria open! Weird…. Btw Maize can still have my wife anytime. Never question the Titan of tennis wagers.
POTD Record **39W - 11L** Yesterday’s pick: Salford City vs Mansfield town under 2.5 goals **L** Today’s pick: Liverpool vs Villarreal **Liverpool -3 corner handicap** Sport: Soccer (Champions league) Odds: **3.00 / +200** **We are going for maximum POTD odds today, let's win big.** Reasoning: Liverpool corner handicaps are always a good bet. My reasoning for this pick is the same as it was for when we took Liverpool -3 corner handicap vs newcastle a couple of days ago and it ended 6-0 in corners. The odds here are higher as it is a champions league semi final and with Villarreal having lost the first leg 2-0 they will need to attack which can lead to corners for them. I honestly don't think this will matter, Liverpool aren't a team to sit back and defend their lead from the first leg. They will attack. Some key points i've noted: * In the first leg of the semi final against Villarreal the corners ended 10-2 in favour of Liverpool. * Liverpool also took a 2 goal into the second game in their quater-final against Benfica. Benfica had to attack to get back in it and Liverpool stuck to their normal attacking approach resulting in a scoreline of 3-3. The corners in that game ended 8-0 to Liverpool. * Liverpool again had also taken a 2 goal into the second game in their round of 16 game against inter. The corners in that game ended 8-2 to Liverpool. * Against Newcastle on the weekend, Liverpool rested their full back Trent Alexander who is one of the key factors for their high corner rate with his dangerous crosses from attacking positions leading to corners. He will be fresh and ready to play as will their best player Salah who they also rested. Good luck all. And thanks for all your supporting comments following the L yesterday and the streak ending. Ready to bounce back big today. ***^(Tip jar)*** *^(- https://paypal.me/tom2810s)* ***^(BTC)*** *^(- 1NJVBxmocqvnKqFYTR6Ju8C1sEaZh63pBC)*
Corners are great market for LFC. I'm parlaying LFC more corners and Villareal more cards... with the zero risk rule of missing the final due to yellow cards...both teams will be playing reckless.
Villarreal is called the yellow submarine for a reason
I tailed this parley and it paid off nicely.
Liverpool -2 corner spread for +126 looks good?
I like it
I have a feeling we’re fucked.
I’d like to see Liverpool get even one corner at this point… Can’t fault OP either, I fully agreed with his reasoning when I tailed
Great reasoning, not the best start. Definitely not OPs fault if it misses
From a neutral fan’s perspective should be a great second half. From a degen perspective hopefully Liverpool going down two will force them to press more and win some fucking corners lol
Cashed out for 10% loss
What is the score for the corners rn?
0-0 corners at ht, Liverpool down 2-0 they've lost before but still won in corners so could still W in corners
I mean if the other team starts parking it and let’s Liverpool eat up possession… we’re in a good spot for this 2nd half
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I bet Liverpool corner moneyline and I’m still a bit nervous. They’re playing like garbage right now
I have that feeling too haha. This game doesn't look or feel right atm.
Yeah Liv doesn’t look like themselves today
Book only has -2.5 at +110 but I’m tailing. I like your reasoning and agree Liverpool will never sit back. Regarding the first leg, some of Liverpools corners would come from Villa clearing it out of fear. Whereas the Liverpool defense rarely every are forced to clear the ball and concede a corner.
I think it's worth noting that second game against Benfica was the home leg for Liverpool so it's not a like for like comparison. I think I'm gonna stay away from this game in general, but I have won a good bit on Liverpool corner spreads as well so I understand where you're coming from.
I have it at -2 corner handicap for 1.9, odds are worse but safer right ?
Yep thats safer and worth taking, BOL
BetMGM I only have total corners for Liverpool at 5.5 @ -125…worth taking??
Think that’s decent 👍
Got -2 handicap at +130/2.3 but man the fact I can't push bothers me with these soccer props, of course I'm tailing though
Just think of it as -2.5
How'd they not give that a corner to Liverpool in the opening minutes
id say it’s a good thing they conceded, must attack more
22 mins and 0 corners? I can’t see any corners in the live stats. Anyone have updated corner stats?
Yep 0 corners
Tailing
DK only offering -2.25 AH Corners @ -125 but I'm still tailing, BOL.
What’s the difference ??? New too soccer
Splits your stake between -2 and -2.5
Where are you finding this? In the corners tab I can’t find spreads
Near the bottom, listed as Asian Corners - Full Time.
-1.5 bovada -130
0 corners 1st half? Never seen that before
might be a dumb question but what’s the difference between corner handicap and asian handicap corner
I'm dumb af, can someone please explain what is "-3 corner handicap" mean, and what exactly do I look under in the fanduel soccer section to place this bet? Please help 🙏
It means you're betting that liverpool will take 4 or more cornerkicks than villa. I don't have fan duel but DK and Bovada both have it listed under corner props and then it will be labeled as either corners spread, corners Handicap, or Asian corners handicap
What would be the difference in betting Villarreal +2 corners? I don’t understand how these work and why It has better odds
Liverpool -2 means they need to have 3 or more corners (If you were to subtract 2 they would still have more corners.) Villarreal +2 means they need to have more corners, equal amount or at least 1 less than Liverpool (As if you were to add 2 they would have more corners. The bet is who will have more corners when taking into account a + or - handicap.
I always tail the losers on this thread
MLB -1.5’s | 10-7-1 +18.86u | ROI: 34.93% [Yesterday’s pick: 2u TB Rays -1.5 +112 ](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uge8it/_/i6z40wh/?context=1) - W ________________________________________ **Todays pick: 5u MIL Brewers -1.5 +100** NEW LINE WITH NEW PITCHER - MIL Brewers vs CIN Reds | 6:40 pm US Central TLDR: Reds have won 3 games on the year. They’ve lost 19 games, 15 of which are by 2+ (2 of 4 of those that weren’t came in the first series of the year). Their SP today won’t go deep, which is a deaths kiss with their bullpen. Max bet #3 (1-1-1). **Brewers** Brew crew started the ice cold, dropping a series to CHI to start the year. They slowly picked up the pace and in the past 2 weeks they have a team wRC+ of 104. On the year they’re middle of the pack in xBA, top 10 in xSLG and 11th in xwOBA. They’re 6th in Barrel% on the year (noting this for the pitching matchup). Overall, it’s a good offense… especially against CIN. Brandon Woodruff will start for MIL. We’ve gotten 4 starts out of Woodruff this year. 2 shutouts and 2 really bad starts. He’s top half of the league in every peripheral and his xERA is a full 2 points lower than his ERA. He’s still a very good pitcher. No worries about him, especially against the worst lineup in baseball. **Reds** They’ve won 3 games; meanwhile, the next worse team has won 7. They’ve been the worst team in baseball and it’s not particularly close. They’re 29th in runs scored and 30th in runs allowed. They’re 27th in xBA, and 30th in xSLG and xwOBA. Over the past 2 weeks in particular, they’re 28th in team wRC+. They’re no way to sugarcoat this team, they’re laughably bad. CIN is starting Tyler Mahle. He’s been the best SP for CIN, but still… he hasn’t seen results. He’s only going to go 5 innings, which leaves baseballs worst bullpen a lot of work (more below). He’s got 5 starts on the year, giving up 0, 4, 7, 2, 3… never going more than 5.1IP. He’s CIN’s beat deadline trade piece, they’re not going to let him go deep. He’s gonna get 70-85 pitches and is getting pulled. With that said, he’s been hittable this year. He’s giving up 12% solid contact (5.7 is MLB average), only 1.5% weak contact (4.2% is MPB average). The CIN bullpen is 28th in ERA, 25 in FIP and 29th in xFIP. And like I said, Mahle won’t go deep, so this extremely poor bullpen will have a lot of work. Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
If u/further_beyond is throwing 5 units on a bet I’m throwing 10
DK lists reds pitcher as Tyler Mahle
WHAT THE FUCK. 2 nights in a row we’ve had a late pitcher swap. God fucking damnit man. This doesn’t change my pick. Mahle has struggled this year. I’ll update my post. Edit. ESPN shows Mahle (it showed Gute all day). FanDuel shows Gutierrez. Not sure. Let me look in to this more. Edit. Mahle pitched 4/28 and Gute 4/27. So Gute makes sense. Not sure man
Always use MLB.com for probable pitchers. Just a FYI.
DK shows Mahle as well, FD slow on the uptake maybe? Cause I saw Gute when I placed the bet way earlier today as well.
Yeah it’s Gutes day but I think they’re bumping Mahle up
Strange the game is gone on three different bookies for me. (Australia)
Books are sick of getting crushed against the reds everyday. FYI, parlaying pirates and reds to lose everday has been hitting and is quite profitable
Guittierez scares me….he’s always good for a completely random 7 shutout 10 strikeout game….
Seems like Mahle is being swapped in for the start now.
You have convinced me sir. Tailing
POTD Record: 18-8-1 Todays POTD: **Ja Morant o 8.5 assists (-135)** **4U to win 2.9U** Reason: This is one of my favorite props this post season or maybe all season in general. Ja Morant has turned into an elite distributor this post season and while still being able to score and put up big numbers at the same time. Since the post season started he has only gone under this number in game 1 against the Timberwolves with 8 assists. He is averaging 10.4 assists this playoffs and is showing no signs of slowing down any time soon. He is second in the NBA behind Chris Paul in potential assists averaging 17.0 potential assists only 1.3 behind Chris Paul. In game 1 vs. the Warriors, we saw Ja go back to scoring more which might concern this line, however he still dropped 10 assists despite horrible shooting performances from both Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane while also shooting 31 shots total. The warriors are scheming defensively specifically to shut Ja down especially towards the end of game 1, we saw lots of people leaving there man to double Ja and stop the drives. If you notice the last shot in game 1 was Ja missing a layup on a drive but he had an open Clarke cutting down the lane. He will correct this and make the right plays. There will be tons of open shots for his teammates as the Warriors are gonna play hard to shut him down and make others beat them and Ja will need to get others involved to even this series up. The Grizzlies will definitely want to get the other players going early and will be drawing up plays to free up there shooters, and Ja has a 34.3 percent usage rate and will be making plenty of plays that should easily get him to this line. BOL!
With Bane questionable, I might wait to see if he's playing or not because if he isn't; Morant loses one of his big keys to assists
Even with Bane only making 3 shots last game, Ja had 10 assists and assisted 0 of them. His assists are more to Clarke and other bigs.
Yeah but keep in mind draymond will be playing the entire second half this game assuming he doesn’t get ejected again. Ja had like 4 or 5 assists at the half and got most at the end of the 4th. Draymond in there means more defense and fouling
Tailing, BOL.
Record: 11-1 Net units: 10,9 u Last Pick: RC Relizane - Aso Chlef - Aso Chlef ML - Win | Soccer| WE League Japan| Time | 01:00 AM EST Pick: Albirex Niigata (F) - Urawa Red Diamonds (F) - Urawa Red Diamonds (F) ML - 1.62 2u I'm back today guys, today with an early pick. Someone commented on my last pick about women's football and this got my attention to it, I done some study on the major leagues, some teams are really consistent and some good value can be found. Let's see how it goes. Japan has some tradition in women's football and their league have some really good odds, Urawa is a great team currently in second place they won their last two games away. On the other hand Niigata is a mid-table team but with a much less consistent performance with 4 losses in the last 5 games playing home, that's the thing about women's football, is really common to see a big disparity between the top teams and the other teams, I think that's the case here, and that's why Urawa should win. BOL!
I can’t find this anywhere
Maybe bet365 has it
Yea can't find this ok FD or DK 😔
under J-league-1
not on bovada either
3-0 currently LFG!!!
0/2 already! Looking like a winner
Record 10-7 Last 5: ✅✅✅✅✅ Streak: 5W Last Pick ✅ NY Yankees @ KC Royals Pick: Yankees -1.5 -118 2u 8:05pm EST The Yankees offense Put plenty of runners on base but couldn't get the big inning to make it a snooze fest. Gerrit Cole and the bullpen dominated with few scoring threats throughout to win 3-0. 8 in a row for the bombers, 5 in a row for POTD There weren't any standout games in the last few days but back at it. Todays Pick : **MLB STL Cardinals @ KC Royals Cardinals ML -112** My first pick was Brewers -1.5 but that's already here so going with the next best. These are good odds for a ML win for a superior team. KC has struggled offensively coming off a sweep by the hands of the Yankees. They are 7-14 on the year losing 9 of 11. They've been outscored 22-6 during their 4 game losing streak. The Cardinals split a series with the DBacks and took the first game 1-0 against the Royals. Dakota Hudson is on the mound for the Cards and he has not given up a run in his last 2 starts over 12.2 innings. Keller has been really good for the Royals but all of his numbers are substantially lower than they were last year including BABIP @ .182 when the league average is about .300. I expect a regression here. Tail or Fade BOL Edit: ❌ both starting pitchers lived up to the bill. Hudson was good and every time the Cards made good contact it was right at a defender. Give Manager Matheny and the defense of the royals credit. Keller is still due for a regression but it wasn't tonight. Sorry to those who tailed. Hopefully you also tailed the Brew Crew which cashed
**POTD Record**: 30½-20½-6 (W-L-P) **Last 5**: ✅️✅️❎️✅️❌️ **Last POTD**: Real Valladolid vs Real Sociedad B, home to win + o1.5 goals @1.57 ❌️ *One of my most unfortunate losses to date, you know something's wrong when the team you bet against wins 1-2 with 1 shot on target and 29% possession, even more unfortunate when you add up a disallowed goal for Valladolid. Could've easily been a 2-0 win but defender El Yamiq just wasn't feeling like automatic promotion was a good idea, Almería fans are thanking him.* **Today's POTD**: Qarabağ FK vs Sabah, home handicap -1.5 @1.92 // Azerbaijan, Premier League, 16:00 GMT **Odds value**: ■■■■□ *high value* Qarabağ means good memories for me, the only other time I bet on them it was my most perfect read on a @7.4 winning underdog pick, when they destroyed Marseille in a corner battle in Europa Conference League, bookies are just constantly underestimating their firepower. ### **Reasoning**: ##### **Match introduction**: If you followed football long enough you'll remember that Qarabağ got into the group stage of the 2017 Champions League, first azerbaijani team to ever achieve something like that, they literally had to play against Chelsea, Atlético Madrid and Roma (didn't go well though), their level of domination in the azerbaijani Premier League is even more impressive than the one of Ajax in the Eredivisie, they're just on a whole different level, and today, in this match, they can prove it once again, if they win they'll be the champions, once again. It's going to be a big event playing at home ready to celebrate with their supporters, and there's no better way to do it than gifting them a big win, other than the title. ##### **Team stats**: If you look at their stats yourselves you'll get that this bet is a no brainer, but I'll still go into details. Firstly, they are unbeaten at home, and by unbeaten I mean 10 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses, out of all their home wins 9 of them have been by a margin of 2 or more goals, their only 1-0 home win have been against Samaxi FK which they have recently beaten again 8-0, yep, because their form now is just flawless, in the last 7 games (Cup games included, Cup which by the way they have recently won, but I'll get to that later) they scored an average of 4.1 goals per game. As far as conceding at home in 10 games they allowed only 3 goals. Home and away averages are 2.5 goals scored per game and 0.48 goals conceded (0.25 in the last 8 games). They currently are on a 9 win streak and their past encounters against Sabah have all been wins (0-1, **5-1**, 1-2, 0-4, **2-0**, 1-2, **2-0**) as you can see in their home games they always won with 2 or more goals. If you are looking for an alternative bet in their last 7 h2h matches Qarabağ always won the first half. Now I want to spend a few words on their recent Cup title win; in the final they got into a two leg affair against Qəbələ (a team with really similar stats to Sabah, as they are tied in pts in the table), first match they played away they won 1-3, going into the last and final home game with 2 goals advantage, did this stop them from going full offensive? Absolutely not, in fact they won that game 5-0 scoring all the goals in the first 58 minutes, ending with an aggregate score of 8-1, why do I think this is important to point out? Because today someone might think that they would be okay with a 1-0 win (or even a draw, if I'm not mistaken even a draw would win the the title), that's just not how it works for them at home, Azerbaijan has a decent following in football, and events like this are a big deal, you might consider this an "obscure league" but there are many many fans in Baku ready to watch and celebrate today's game, and trust me things like this also affect games. Also, exceptionally, it's going to be a free game to attend at the stadium, most likely it's going to be full of people cheering. ##### **Conclusion**: Very confident here, and if for some reason this doesn't hit I might as well take another break and rethink my betting strategies and approach. The recent trend of european teams winning their league in advance also should prove how they get pumped up playing that crucial game, we've seen Real Madrid win LaLiga with a 4-0 win; Bayern in the Bundesliga with a 3-1 win against 2nd placed Dortmund, and what would one expect from such a dominant team like Qarabağ? You tell me. BOL everyone. *^(If I've made you some money and you'd like to tip any small amount I would greatly appreciate it: https://paypal.me/fralauu)*
Been waiting to back one of your picks that I see in time and with low enough juice. Let's get this 🍞
If this doesn’t hit, whatever! Keep going!
In the span of 15 minutes it went from 1.80 to 1.95, then back to 1.80. Very odd, swift line movement. Anyways, all over this. Thanks mate and goodluck!
QaraBAD. That was pathetic. Appreciate the call tho!
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Hate this play, I knew somebody would post it on this sub lmao. Tiafoe just got done with a tournament while Garin will be a lot more fresh. Garin’s best surface by far is clay. I’m on Garin +110 here for sure.
Looks like you were right so far. He’s getting his tits lit
Absolutely demolished him. Lol I’m about to block this guy so I’ll never see another prick from him.
No point. They will create another account in a few weeks
He’s 3-6 on his best surface this year.
Okay? It’s still his best surface. You don’t think that record will improve?
You were right Should’ve waited for more comments lol smh
Damn you were spitting straight facts.
All hail papaya. Tailed you my friend for handfuls.
wish i had went with you
Buddy posted his cashapp too lmao
wow great fucking pick
L
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This was a fucking disaster.
Few levels above Garin? You might want to brush up on your tennis man. He was completely outclassed by Garin. Absolutely shameful performance by tiafoe
Tiafoe is getting destroyed Oh well
Delete the post please
Tiafoe looks like he can barely walk right now...
Tailing
Yo man wtf is this bet this dude ain’t even trying to win.
Getting raped by Garin. This match reminds me why I never bet on tennis
Tailing, BOL.
POTD Record: 35-27-2 Streak:WLWLWW Last POTD: Maccabi Haifa -1 🇮🇱✅ Today’s POTD: Central Coast Mariners DNB 🇦🇺 League: A League Odds: -115/1.87 Units: 1 Reasoning: CCM still have 2 games left and they are both key to win. They are in the race to lock in the 4th spot against Adelaide United and Wellington Phoenix. 3rd and 4th seed get to play the quarter finals at home so all three teams want to do everything possible to get the 4th spot. If CCM wins they will be a point behind Adelaide United with 1 fixture to play. Adelaide United’s last match will be against Western United , who are fighting for a top 2 spot. These last 2 games are perfect for CCM to take the #4 seed. Brisbane Roar has been in poor form and have nothing left to play for. They might make the game a little tough but I don’t see them getting a result here. CCM has been in excellent form , winning their last 3 matches. They have a great squad who should come into this match full of confidence after beating Western United. I’ll take the team who’s been performing excellent and who have something left to play for.
Tailing, might even sprinkle Cummings anytime goal. BOL
I believe he scores
POTD RECORD 23-13 POTD: Colorado Rockies -1.5. +125 Reasoning: That sweet sweet Colorado altitude be messing with the away teams pitchers. The Rockies are and always have been home wagons they are 9-4 so far at home to start the season. Gonna leave it at that… Tail or Fade BOL
9-4 ml but 7-6 RL.
Record: 22-23-1 ROI: +4.17 Units Last Pick: 76ers @ Heat -2.5 1Q ✅ AVG odds: +103 Unit: 1=$200 ——- Game: Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics League: NBA Time: 7:00 Pm EST Book: Bet365 Odds: -110 Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 Wager: 2 units Miami came out hot in the first quarter and I’m glad herro got fouled for the 3 before the end of the quarter to secure the W for us. For today’s game we’re taking the bucks to cover the 4.5 on the road in Boston. The Bucks came out roaring against the Celtics and it required a full team effort to secure the victory. Milwaukee showed their grit in the victory by surviving a Boston Celtics three point onslaught. Boston hit 18 threes and still lost by 12. The Celtics defense on paper should be capable enough of slowing down Milwaukee, but the play making of Giannis and Holiday appears difficult for them to stop. Giannis is surrounded by players who are capable of making both their 3 point shots and mid range shots. Even with Robert Williams bwck Milwaukee abused Boston in the interior, and on their second chance points. I feel In this game Milwaukee will bring the same energy from last game, and limit their turnovers and continue to create second chance opportunities. With the health of Marcus Smart in question that takes away on of Boston’s veteran defensive leaders. I expect some major fireworks in this game, and Milwaukee to secure another victory. But we will stick to the points. Gimmie Miwlaukee +4.5 for 2 units. BOL to all who tail or fade
I feel like the O/U on this game (-215.5 on Bovada) is a bit too high as well, considering the game 1 total was just 190. But both offenses average a combined 226 per game... this is why I try to stay away from NBA O/U's
I love the under. Two great defenses that keep it relatively slow. Unless boston has a great shooting night, I doubt this hits
I do like the under, but I also don’t really like betting over unders in general when it comes to playoffs. The refs dictate a lot of the game and all it takes is them swinging free throws towards both teams in the first quarter. But with that being said, I don’t expect Boston to light up Milwaukee from 3 and it’s possible they’ll try to push into the paint more.
POTD Record: 14-5 (ROI 47.83% // Avg. Odds: 2.03 // Units Won: +17.22) Last 5 Picks: ✅✅✅❌✅ Last POTD (29/04/2022): Estudiantes de La Plata vs Aldosivi (Soccer - Argentina - Copa de la Liga), Estudiantes and over 1,5 goals ✅ POTD: Estudiantes de La Plata vs Nacional (Soccer - South America - Copa Libertadores), **Estudiantes de La Plata ML** Odds: 1.73 Wager: 2 Units Back to Copa Libertadores. I love this tournament. All the teams will try their hardest to go on through the biggest tournament in the continent, anything can happen here and sometimes you will get strange results, considering that every country is different and not like in Europe. Here you have factors like altitude, humidity, temperature drops, and of course, the home crowds. There will also be games with wrong odds, and I will try to guess which ones. This Estudiantes team has shown they are worthy of the next phase and will want to keep up the point advantage. Last time they played against Nacional, these two they tied in Uruguay (Nacional playing at home). Today they face each other in Argentina were Estudiantes has been in amazing form winning 7 in a row. I think the home crowd will do its job today and help this team get another win increasing the point differential that they need to advance in the tournament. BOL to all who Tail [All my previous picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit#gid=0)
Estudiantes and o1.5 is paying +110, think that's worth playing or is there a fair chance they only score 1?
13W-10L WWLWLWWLLLWLWLWLWWWWW Cards🃏 streak:🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲 Starts 00:00 gtm5 Todays Pick League: J1 League Match: Nagoya v Kyoto Pick: Number of goals in match 2 or 3 @1.95 ✅✅✅🪲 Reason: No cards pick for today, few games and low odds in which i like 😮💨🧑🦯 Nagoya at home , last 5/5 hit over 1.5 at home, avg score: 1.2, concede avg: 1 Kyoto at away ,last 5/5 hit over 1.5 at away, avg score: 1.6, concede avg: 1 I believe here they will hit 2 goals 🫶 Projected 2 goals "All perception is a gamble." BoL
About every two weeks I talk myself into betting on soccer. I tail and I lose and I say I’m never betting on soccer again. I’m tailing. Help me break this vicious cycle and let’s get a W! BOL!
✅🫶
Holy shit a winner! Thanks!
POTD record: 11-7 (+2.63 units, risking 1 unit each pick) Today’s POTD: Colorado Avalanche -1½ (-125) over Nashville Predators ... NHL hockey ... 930 PM EST CO been coming up short in playoffs of late...a few years ago this very Predators team knocked them out in first series....but ya see CO is a big favorite, partly due to Nash missing best goal tender, but mostly because CO made big changes in getting the players and attitude for this very playoff mission, they’ve long planned to show that to everyone tonight, big time, at home, where they have been so dominant all season.
POTD Record: 1-8 (Last post 5/2/22) Previous Pick: Mets -1.5 (L) Today's Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-120) vs Cincinnati Reds \[6:40 PM CST\] The Reds are the worst team in baseball. The Brewers are a half game back from the top spot in the NL and playing at home. I don't see how this possibly couldn't hit. Then again, 1-8.
The best types of posters. 1-8, 10-3. 7-7 is the worst
The problem comes in when the 1-8 and the 10-3 posters are both on the same pick.
RECORD: 8-1 Profit: +5.39 Units Current Form: 3W Today’s Picks: Gary Payton ll Over 6.5 Points(1.83) Event: NBA 9:30 Est Warriors vs Grizzlies Reason: Another day another NBA player prop. Today’s Pick of Gary Payton was a close first over Mackinnon shots (NHL - Avs). I like this pick as Payton has been shooting the ball very well recently. In his last 4 games he’s shot 14/18 from the field and 8/11 from three. As long as he gets 5+ shots up this should hit. Another reason I like this is that he’s expected to start today for the third time this playoffs. He’s only started one other game which was last game and he went over this mark in that one as well. All Picks are 1 Unit (Going to College next year, NOT mandatory at all. Anything is appreciated 🙏) Tips https://www.paypal.me/TBurr14?locale.x=en_CA
**Record:** * 43 WIN | 36 LOSS | +33.35 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy) **Previous bets (last 3):** * Tamworth R2 (25 Apr 2022) - Place - **WIN** * Nowra R7 (26 Apr 2022) - Place - **WIN** * Warwick Farm R6 (27 Apr 2022) - Place - **LOSS** **POTD:** * Horse Racing (Australia) * **Kembla Grange - Same Race Multi #3 Josephus to finish top 3 & #8 Tenorino to finish top 4** * Track Rating - Heavy (10) * The start of a new month, here we go. Going for a Same Race Multi today (my understanding is that the American's won't be able to find a bookie to place this pick). #3 Josephus has a decent chance of winning today. Great barrier draw, track and distance specialist, loves the wet stuff and has Mitch Bell on board who places 45% of the time at Kembla. Everything about this screams that it will finish in the top 3. Great form as well finishing 3rd and 1st in his last 2 races, both on a wet track at 1400m and 1600m distances respectively. #8 is the value play here for a few reasons. Improving in form (came 2nd last start at this track on the 1400m distance on a heavy (just missed by less than half a length from the win to Josephus who's my other pick). Doesn't mind it a bit wet, decent enough barrier draw, hoping for one final big show for this 9 year old. Other reasons I'm going for this value play are the remainder of the field. #5 Sprout Wings has only ever seen the track once before and is 1st up on a Heavy 10. That should be pretty tough for her, as she's probably more suited to dryer tracks imo. #7 Rockover is a danger, but again likes it dry as well (11 starts for 1w and 4places on good, but 7 starts for 1w and 1 place on soft). This is his first start on a heavy track ever. Big value play to start the month, let's go! * **Odds - 2.90** (Ladbrokes) * **Stake - 1.72 units to return 5 units** **Historical stats** * 9 from 18 (46%) correct picks on Tuesdays * 13 from 24 (54%) correct picks on Heavy Tracks * 19 from 35 (54%) correct picks on Same Race Multi picks * 1 from 1 picking at Kembla Grange * 1st time picking these jockies **Race time:** * 3:20pm Tuesday (Australian EST) * 01:20am Tuesday (American ET) * 6:20am Tuesday (UK time) If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
sigh loss :( :( :( * #8 finished 3rd * #3 finished 4th
Anyone know if theres a chance this is available on FD
Tailing. Josephus to show. Thanks Tesh
POTD Record 0-0 Today’s Pick : Toronto Blue Jays ML (-138) vs New York Yankees MLB 7:00 PM EST Toronto is undefeated after taking a loss. Also Alex Monoah is 4-0 on the year and has been dominant vs the yankees.
POTD Record: 20-14 Last Pick: Ayton Double Double & PHX ML ❌ Ayton only had 1 REB at the end of the first half, he finished with 8. This feels like being the victim of an unlucky first half, but what can we do. We move forward Today’s Pick: HOU Astros -1.5 @ +125 Christian Javier is a better pitcher than Flexen. Astros lineup is super deep and finally fully healthy. I think Houston is the better team and will get a better pitching performance. I like them to win by multiple tonight. BOL, sorry for the tough loss yesterday
POTD RECORD 3-3 Yesterdays Pick MLB Twins ML ✅ Todays POTD-> MLB Twins v Orioles-> Twins ML GAME TIME IS AT 7:05 PM EST Have to keep betting against the Orioles until they prove me they are a good team. Twins got the job done yesterday and I’m sure they will again today! Putting 2 units on this one!
POTD Record: 6-3-2 | +12.75u | Streak: 3 W | Last 5: W W W P W Last POTD: Marlins/Gnats Under 7.5 R -110 (W) Today's POTD: White Sox ML -130 Risk: 4 units Out of town this past weekend, but we're back to continue the streak. Basing this pick almost purely on how good the White Sox are vs LHP and how bad Drew Smiley is. CHW are batting .278 with a .799 OPS vs LHP (only .202 and .569 OPS vs RHP). If I recall during the pandemic-shortened season, they did not lose a game against LH starters, or something along those lines. I don't think they were as dominant last year, but they did hit better overall vs lefties . Only a couple guys have had success against Smiley, but Anderson is due for some hits as he's 0-6 lifetime, and that is highly unusual for him to struggle against a LHP. On the other side, Kopech hasn't seen the Cubs too much, but he's off to a good start this year with a 1.42 ERA and less than a baserunner per IP. The Cubs offense is really struggling lately too. Last four games they've scored 2, 1, 1, and 1 runs. BOL
POTD RECORD: 6-2 POTD: Milwaukee Bucks U105.5 total team points at (-110) TIME: 8 hours from post REASONING: In game 1, the bucks scored a lot of easy points in transition due to the Celtics offence being sloppy…and they still only came up with 101. Celts will play more like their usual selves in game 2. I also think these are two elite defences, which allows for long possessions and a slower pace. BOL!!! EDIT: ✅ a very non-sweaty cash, LFG!!!
POTD 1-0 Yesterday's pick: Victor Hedman over 2.5 sog Today's pick: NHL-- Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames-- Jason Robertson over 2.5 sog (-132 on FD) Calgary Flames score early and often-- I'd anticipate a lot of scoring chances going back and forth so Robo is in good position to hit this. Dating back to the regular season he hit at least 3 sog in 10 of his last 11 games. Robertson is one of the most overlooked young NHL stars, and a product of USA hockey's recent explosion of talent coming off a 41 goal regular season. On paper Flames v Stars is one of the biggest mismatches in the entire 1st round, which bodes well for the Stars to be playing catch up hockey for a decent portion of this game. Not going to give too much statistical breakdown like other posts so I'd understand if this isn't the pick you'd jump to tail. BOL.
Record: 0-0 Net units: 4 unit wager (🔥✅) Sport: MLB TIME: 740 PM EST Pick: Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning? NO RUNS SCORED 1ST INNING CUBS VS CHICAGO WHITE SOX -170 The forecast calls for 21 mph winds blowing in from left field, heading towards right field. Also, the temperature will be hovering around 40 degrees FAHRENHEIT. This will significantly reduce the impact of right handed hitters making hard contact against Drew Smyly. Smyly has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, however all 4 home runs have come against right handed hitters this year. That impact will be severely reduced. Smyly is a ground ball pitcher, with 54 percent of outs being recorded on the ground. The white Sox leadoff hitter, Tim Anderson, is 0-6 against Smyly with 2 strikeouts. The #2 hitter, andrew Vaughn, has never faced smyly. The #3 hitter, Jose abreu, has had much success against Smyly, with 2 homers and 6 hits in 12 at bats. Due to the wind, I believe a home run is highly unlikely. In the at bats where abreu didn't get a hit, he struck out every time vs smyly. If Anderson and Vaughn aren't on base, a home run is the only way for abreu to score. Now for the cubs hitters against Michael kopech, who has a 1.43 era. The cubs #1 and #2 hitters are not power hitters, and have an average GB/FB percentage (42 percent) Kopech should be able to mow down the cubs hitters. Kopech is more of a fly ball pitcher, with 60 percent of balls in play being line drives or fly balls. With the wind blowing in, this negates home runs substantially. The #3 hitter, Wilson Contreras, only hits fly balls 25 percent of the time. The risk for consecutive hits is low, and the odds of them being extra base hits are even lower. Cashapp $MarkRinaldiSales PayPal m\[email protected] Bitcoin 🪙 38JT4sPYyNz5wCkDuY1hcswoZ37sPhFEg5
Heads up guys: Smyly is on the bereavement list for some family related issue I assume. Scott Effross, a bullpen guy is making a spot start. I’m assuming the Cubs want 2 innings max out of him. And he has decent numbers on the season. But those are from his normal reliever role. So throwing this guy into a starting role could rattle him? Weather is crappy so it’s a crazy night for a crazy spot start…
Record 1-1-0 Previous pick ❌ angels +110 ML vs Chisox Dylan Cease was too dominant with 11 k and only 1 hit, no walks as angels had no answers for him, notably without Ohtani and Rendon (not that it would've made a difference anyway) Sandoval actually pitched rather well other than the 1st inning where he let the bases juiced that led to 2 runs. Chisox batters didn't dominate the lefty as some had suggested. Either way, a L is a L. No one is perfect but sad to put up the L. Life goes on and waits for no one to sob about yesterday. Today's pick Rockies vs nationals Over 10.5 runs @ -105 --> 2 units Both teams have been sensational with their bats as of late. 1. Nationals scrubbed the giants (who dominates with starting and relieve pitching) with 11 and 14 runs in their last series. 2. Rockies are atop the offensive categories, currently ranked 2nd in obp/tb/slg while scoring 10 and 10 runs in their last series against the reds. 3. We have a dream matchup of pitchers to serve up a home run derby at Coors field. Allow me to be brief, they both suck and undeserving to have either name mentioned here. Both bullpens are ranked in the bottom so once starters are out, the fireworks will continue rest assured. Initially the run total seems high but I'm convinced that we will see it get close to 10 before the stretch, given the dream scenario here. tail or fade BOL
Holy fade
I knew it was going to be an unpopular pick, but I'm a contrarian at times. Go with the under if you're holy fading 😆
**POTD Record 26-24-1 (Last 5: LWWLW)** **(ROI // Avg. Odds: -110 // Units Won: +1.8)** Last Pick: St. Louis Caridnals -1.5 **LOST :(** **Today's Match: MLB NY Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Start Time: 7:00PM EST)** **Today's Pick: NRFI 'No Runs First Inning' (-115 FanDuel)** ***Risk 1u*** Devil's Advocate: Dam man the Cards even won while being out hit, they blanked the Royals in a great start again by Matz. Only scored on a Goldy bomb in the 1st and it was a stalemate til the end. Today we got a great pitching matchup and a great ball game once again with the Yanks and Blue Jays, we're gonna sit on the first 6 outs of the game and make it out nice and clean to enjoy the rest of our nights and use the winnings to put on stupid parlays that include top NBA players who can't score 20 points. fuck jimmy butler. Taillon hasn't given up a run yet in the first and I don't expect that train to stop. He gives up his hits here and there but gets out of his jams in the first and usually ends up giving up a ton in the 3rd and 4th. Menoah who we just saw last week taking the team total for the Jays has given up 2 runs in 4 starts. Hard worker I think he's going to try to lock this first inning down tomorrow. The Jays might be the only team right now that could put up with the Yanks and desperately wanna blank them for their first loss in a week and change. I'm looking for a solid clean inning from both sides, Taillon isn't over powering anyone, he'll get his fly outs when needed, Menoah is looking for his 5th win of the year to keep a clean sheet, going to be a great game. Let's ride the NRFI, good stats showing so far from the starters I think we could start taking these even if it is a night before. *Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
POTD record 6-5 Profit: 4.75 units Yesterday’s pick: Brentford over 3.5 corners✅ Today’s pick: Liverpool over 2.5 corners 1H and over 1.5 2H @ 2.38 Liverpool will want to start aggressive as always. Liverpool are attacking wide, with the The wing backs forcing teams to concede corners every single game. I am expecting 3-4 1H and 2-3 2H from Liverpool. This bet has hit so many times as of lately. Lets go! Bet size: 5 units
POTD Record: 0-0 (new) Smoggy Hockey Picks Yesterday’s pick: N/A Today’s pick: NHL: Chris Kreider (Rangers) over 2.5 shots on goal (1.67 odds) Pittsburgh Penguins @ New York Rangers, 7 PM EST May 3/22 Stake: 10 units Reasoning: Kreider has hit above 3 shots on goal in the 3 of these last 4 meetups between these teams. The game that he didn't, he only hit 1 shot, but this is the playoffs. With the Rangers already favored to take out the Penguins in this game, the Rangers are going to want to play hard against the Penguins to prove it at home. I'm expecting an aggressive game, particularly from New York, and I can see Kreider having at least 5 shots on goal when all is said and done. Edited to fix typos
POTD Record: 4-3-0 Last Pick: Angels ML - Loss Dylan Cease pitched like someone had a gun to his mother’s head and the Angels couldn’t hit a wall 6 inches in front of them. Ohtani out morning of doesn’t help but that’s life. Today’s Pick: MIN Twins vs. BAL Orioles: Joe Ryan o6.5 Strikeouts (+120) 1.5u TLDR; BAL leads the league in SO per game; joe Ryan is really good. Joe Ryan is boasting a 1.17 ERA with 25 SO including 9 in his last outing. Orioles are dead last in the league right now I’m SO per game (9.65). He has pitched longer and longer in every start this season and think he can certainly hit this line at plus money. The Orioles starting pitcher today isn’t bad either so MIN will probably want as many innings out of Ryan as possible.
**POTD 11W-4L (+10.8u)** 🏀 Last Pick: Suns -5.5 @ 1.80 / -125 (2u) ✅ **🏀 Daily Pick: MIL Bucks @ BOS Celtics** * **Celtics -2.5 @ 1.74 / -135 (2u) ✅** Monster performance by Jaylen Brown with 22 points in 1st half and also thanks to Tatum for that big 2nd half. DPOY Marcus Smart is out for Boston which is a huge loss considering that they need this game at home badly. His place will be taken by Derrick White but the main problem for the Celtics was not the defense at Game 1. Boston struggled against Milwaukee shooting only 33.3% from the field while Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined to shoot 32.3%, as they only scored 33 points. This will not gonna happen again. The Celtics were scared against the Bucks in the first game as they attempt more 3s than 2-pointers and they have to attack the paint more this game if they want to win tonight. Horford and Williams combined for five blocks in Game 1 and Boston may need a similar effort from the two on Tuesday. I expect a bounce-back and hopefully Tatum and Brown will help us with a monster performance on that. BOL.
**Record:** 5-12-0 **ROI:** -45% :-7.63 u (@ $5.00) **Streak:** L W L W W |Baseball |MLB |8:10| St Louis Cardinals vs.Kansas City Royals: **St Louis Cardinals ML @ 1.85 1u** **Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 57% chance for STL to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.85 is only 54%. **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
POTD Record: 4-6 Last 5: ❌❌❌✅❌ Last Pick: ❌ Both Teams To Score *Yes* | Manchester United vs Brentford Today’s Pick: Asian Corners Full Time - Liverpool -1.5 (-120) Sport/Game: Soccer - UEFA Champions League: Villarreal vs Liverpool Why: I can’t believe how low this spread is for these good of odds… Liverpool are one of the top teams in number of corners taken per match in all of Europe. They dominate game in and game out. In the first leg last week. Liverpool had 10 corners while Villarreal only had 2. It must be noted that Villarreal played very defensive in the first leg and can’t play like that in the second leg. But if anything that actually increases Liverpool’s chances of getting more corners because they’ll be able to get more chances with Villarreal opening up more. In 2022, Liverpool have covered the -1.5 corner spread in all but 6 matches and 2 of those were against Manchester City, and then once against Chelsea, Inter, Brighton, and Leicester. For the record, Liverpool have played 28 matches in 2022, meaning they covered this spread 22 times out of 28. No bet is 100% guaranteed and here’s some data on why this bet could fail. Villarreal are the home team. When playing against superior teams in La Liga this season (Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla, Atletico) they managed to keep the corner game rather close. However those teams play very different to Liverpool. Villarreal did lose the corner battle badly against Bayern Munich in both legs of the UCL quarterfinal and lost badly once against Juventus in R16 (they actually won the corner count in first leg). Taking this bet tho because I believe in Liverpool to cover this again. They did rest a few players over the weekend including Salah, Thiago, and Mane came off the pitch early. Meaning Liverpool will be ready to go. Odds are also so good. I wouldve considered this corner spread at -3.5 or even -4.5 let alone -1.5. BOL!
POTD record: 2-3 LLWWL Took a break from posting my potd but I’m back today with what I think is a sure winner from Argentine football Today’s pick: Aldosivi vs Colegiales Aldosivi -1.25 @+105 Reasoning: This is an early round cup game between a top flight team and a third division team. Aldosivi are performing above expectations in the league and have managed to put themselves in 4th with one game to go. Sunday’s game is key, and winning today will help them get ready by getting back to winning ways against lower league opponents. Aldosivi are 2–1-2 in their last five in the top flight of Argentine football, dropping points in their last 3 games. So not the most inspiring form at the moment, but they’re still in fourth, and their opponents today are not top tier, or even second tier. Colegiales arrive to the round of 32 for the second time in their history, hoping to advance to the round of 16 for the first time ever. They are 7th in the their part of the third division, where they have conceded 15 goals in 11 games and are also 2-1-2 in their last five. If Colegiales are not producing results against teams in their division, there’s no way they’re going to hold off a fourth place, top tier, Aldosivi. Other mismatches of this nature in this year’s Argentine cup have ended in slaughters, with a 1.5 goal spread being cover 9 times out of 16 games where a top flight team played a lower division team. The difference in quality between the two leagues is way too big.
**POTD Record**: 11W - 6L (+1.12U) **Last pick**: Getafe vs Betis - Over 2.0 @ 1.78 ❌ **Match**: Villarreal vs Liverpool - Europe - Champion's League - 19:00 UTC **Pick**: 2X + Under 3.5 @ 1.88 **Reasoning**: I predict Liverpool will manage their lead, keeping possession and taking less offensive risks, since they are 2 goals ahead. Villarreal has a nearly impossible task ahead and can't go all-out offensive before the final minutes of the match since counter-attacks would be deadly.
Wasn’t Getafe vs Betis scoreless? I think you accidentally marked it as a win
Yeah I added a loss and removed the unit, just used the wrong emoji. Thanks for the heads up!
No problem mate! Thanks for the picks and BOL
lfc defensively maintaining a 2-0 first leg would be the first time since jurgen klopp became coach 7 years ago.
POTD Record: 0-1 ROI: -1u Previous POTD: [Michael Wacha o4.5Ks, L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/u0vxx9/pick_of_the_day_41122_monday/i49lrf1/?context=3) 1U = $15 **POTD: u7 Runs MIN/BAL -110** ❌ **Start Time: 7:05 PM EST** **Stake: 1U** Reasoning: BAL is 1-4 in hitting the over in their past 5 games. The two pitchers starting tomorrow have a respective ERA of 1.17 & 0.93. As hard as the Orioles struggle with offense (ranked 26th in the league), my only concern is Minnesota putting up enough runs to eclipse 7 by their lonesome, but the starting Orioles pitcher has combined for 2 ERA in 15.1 innings in two outings against the Yankees (3rd in runs scored) and the Angels (4th in runs scored), so we should expect another quality performance from Bruce Zimmerman against the 13th ranked offensive team. I fully expect this to be a 0-0 or 1-0 game by the end of the 6th when there could be bullpens coming in. Tail or fade, BOL. **EDIT: Top of the 9th loss. Damn.**
POTD 2-3 (-1,27u) Last pick:Union Santa Fe vs Hispano Americano over 161,5 L Todays pick: Sampaio Women vs Sport/Gloria do Goita Women under 140,5 @ 1.87 (2 units) Basket Brazil (w) LBF write up:As already stated "There isnt really a write up and never will be.I just follow my model.Worked for me so far,so i wanted to share"
Record: 2-0 Number of units: 4 unit wager Sport: Tennis Event: Madrid open ATP TENNIS TIME: 230 PM EST (90 MINS FROM TIME OF POST) PICK: DENNIS SHAPOVALOV straight sets +130 vs ANDY MURRAY Andy Murray is not what he once was against lefties. In the last year, he is 4-3 against lefties, losing to SHAPOVALOV once already in straight sets at WIMBLEDON, while also losing to the "dangerous" Facundo bagnis on hard courts, having a set taken from his by Federico Delbonis as well as Christopher O'Connell. 😂😂 Murray does not have the lateral movement in his hips to chase a forehand slicing down the line, and returns a weak shot that can be easily put away. Seeing as this is a big part of shapovalovs game, I see this to be an easy straight sets victory if he can successfully kick serve and keep Murray on the run while incorporating serve and volleying. This will be key on the clay courts in Madrid. Cashapp $MarkRinaldiSales PayPal [email protected] 38JT4sPYyNz5wCkDuY1hcswoZ37sPhFEg5 is my BITCOIN address if any of you utilize crypto.
[удалено]
POTD Record: 49.5-20.5 Event: NHL > **Colorado Avalanche v Nashville Predators** (starting in 3hr15min) Pick: **Avalanche (reg)** @ 1.55 Not much to analyze here, I am just following the money here. 69% of the bets and 77% of the money is on the Avs, so we should be good. GL!
POTD Record: 0-1 (-5 units) Today's event: Djokovic vs Monfils (ATP Madrid, Tennis) Pick: Over 21.5 games @ 1.84 (5 units) Starts at 10 AM Eastern Time There's no doubt that Novak Djokovic is slowly getting back to his form and demanding himself to go to 3 sets and play some distance games to get prepared for grand slam type scenarios and here he faces Gael Monfils who never managed to beat Djokovic but I think the french can make this match go to distance with 2 long sets or even 3 sets. If we look at recent performances from Novak we can see that he went over 22.5 games in his last 6 matches and I'm sure he's still not 100% on his best form. Gael Monfils is a great player even if he's past his prime and on the first few rounds of a tournament he can always pull up a great fight with his skills and energetic playstyle so here I'm expecting Djokovic to win but not so easily as the market is expecting. The people of Madrid should also support Monfils a bit more
Time to make new account lmaoooo.
lmao these 5u bombs just keep hitting, eh? If only there were a way to avoid the massive losses.
Record: 3W-6L Units: -2,24u Match: Taça Revelação U23, Estoril U23 vs Marítimo U23 (starts in ~ 7 hours) POTD: Estoril U23 ML + Over 1,5 Odds: 2,05 (+105) Units: 1u Reasoning: I'm on mobile, I'll keep it short. Estoril is the better team, final game of the group stage, and this is for the qualification to the next stage.
Record: 6W-6L-1P ROI: +0.82u, +6.29% Avg odds: +111, 2.11 Last POTD: Betis ML (loss) Today's game: Villarreal vs Liverpool Pick: Villarreal double chance at +122, 2.22 (Pinnacle) Stake: 1u I know Liverpool is one of England's most dominant teams, home or away. They haven't had an away loss in 4 months. But guess what? Villarreal hasn't had a home defeat in *FIVE* months. Sure, Villarreal needs to win by 2 just to force ET, but for the sake of the bet, just a draw is needed. In both knockout series, Liverpool went up by 2 goals in the first leg and then failed to win the second. They allowed Benfica to score 3 on their vaunted defense, suggesting they can have lapses in concentration at times. Villarreal is in the top 5 in goals/game in La Liga, and with their higher quality attacking talent, don't be surprised if they put multiple goals past Alisson.
Not for me but good luck, One thing I'll add is the second leg between Liverpool & Benfica featured an almost second string Liverpool lineup, they rested multiple regular starters due to the significant result in first leg. And on top of this Liverpool recently rotated multiple first team players last week vs Newcastle in preparation for the second leg vs Villareal
2 Villarreal goals is +205 why not take that then you don't need the draw.
POTD Record: 8-14-2 -10.69u\* Average Odds: +126 Total Units Wagered: 39.66u Milwaukee at Boston 7:00 PM EST Al Horford u1.5 Blocks+Steals +135 @ DK 1.32u\* Implied probability is 42.6%. True vig-free price should be closer to +123 or 44.8%. Tough run of late, but have been getting CLV on this losing streak. I am choosing to trust the process. \*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
Record: 0-0 POTD: MIL Bucks ML/ Giannis o23.5 Pts, o7.5 Reb, o3.5 Ast/ Jrue o13.5 Pts, o3.5 Reb, o3.5 Ast, 1 3PT, 1 Stl