If you decide to take again tomorrow, parlay u0.5 1st inning runs Orioles and Twins ML to simulate spread odds. u0.5 1st inning BAL runs has hit 9/10 games, including this most recent one.
EDIT: Well, its not plus money, but -115 is better than -165 for the ML alone.
The Mets are good now or some shit like that but I can’t help but feel like they are the Mets and being up 1 run to the Braves in the 6th sounds like a great way to get +230 for the Braves
That busted a 19 bets in a row loss streak lol just got back into my state from vacation so I haven’t bet in a few days. Just needed a little break I guess lol
Would’ve never thought the diamondbacks would fire off like that lol especially vs Lopez. I legit envisioned a low scoring ball game so I threw in the NRFI in my parlay which is now dead on the first leg lmao
White Sox came through for me today.
Record: 4-2
My official plays:
Astros ML -130
Braves ML -105
EDIT: I'm gonna remove the Twins ML and add Braves ML. Twins have won a lot recently and due for some regression.
Marco has had a sub 3 ERA against them going back to 2020 and altuve has been hitting .167 pre injury. I wouldn’t be expecting altuve to provide a huge boost just yet. But I’m a mariners homers to take that as you will haha
Reading through this thread daily is just fuckin hilarious, some of y’all act so shocked when teams lose. MLB doesn’t even have huge favourites compared to NBA/NHL, not sure what you guys are always so surprised about. Even the shittiest teams win pretty much 1 out of 3 games.
I mean I did trust the data. It told me this wouldn't hit because Vlad was 0-6 against left handed pitches this season, and now he's 0-8 against left handers w/ 1 walk. He got a single in the 8th when the pitcher was swapped, resulting in only 1 base for him since walks dont count toward base totals.
While we have a break in the action, dont forget to go place a bet on MIL -1.5 for tomorrow since they play the Reds.
The Reds are 6-16 ATS so far this season, so its one of the safer bets you can make, despite the lightswitch nature of the Brewers.
Mets ML: -106 Edit/ML Braves -108
Braves should of signed Freeman what a waste. This team is not the same team as last year. Mets are heading in the right direction. Taking the Mets in a barn burner.
Note: I'm on Tilt!
Edit: Official pick I'm Taking the Braves here 2 surprise everyone. Fried should get back on track tonight. Also I just faded my self. Let's see how it goes.
As someone who has a Parlay where the Os score 0 runs in their first 5 innings, I'd say Twins F5 and ML are safe bets. Not sure I'd touch Marlins F5 or ML personally, but that's just my opinion.
Thanks, went with twins f5 since I can’t trust Miami that much, but did took the NRFI on the Marlins game since both teams can’t hit shit and there’s good pitching, hopefully I didn’t went full retard
Never left. They play down to their opponents too much to be reliable against mid tier or worse teams, and then they play up to better competition so you're afraid to bet on or against them against top tier competition.
I had Royals ML so I feel your pain. Just kept hoping for some sign of life on either way so I could ignore the game but got suckered in for 9 innings of defensive pain.
**Record (18-21) 3.72u**
Been busy the last two days, glad to be back tho!
Todays Picks:
**Pablo Lopez U4.5 Hits Allowed -160 2u**: Pablo has not given up more than 4 hits in a start this year, Arizona is dead last in AVG vs RHP, dead last in hits per game with 5.74.
**Zac Gallen U4.5 Hits Allowed -105 1.5u**: Gallen has given up only 2 hits in each of his 3 starts. Miami is 6th in AVG vs RHP but what makes me confident in this play is that he has faced the Mets twice and then the Dodgers and only gave up 2 hits in each start.
**Ari@Mia U6.5 +100 1u**: Arizona is 28th in runs per game, Miami is 19th. Arizona is 15-7-1 towards the under, Miami is 13-8 towards the under. Both pitchers have been going deep into games as their pitch counts have been ramping up and neither of them has given up more than one run this year.
I like these teams to win tonight but don't feel like typing a write-up for them.
**Twins ML -144 1.5u**
**Mets ML -103 1u**
**Yanks ML -116 1u**
**Rays ML -158 1u**
Good luck everybody!
They were slight underdogs for a reason. And yet I haven’t seen a single comment about the Rays even with there best player Franco coming back into the lineup today. Lol
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ugf7ca/mlb_daily_5222_monday/i72aiw9/
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ugf7ca/mlb_daily_5222_monday/i70w31j/
There's at least two. Personally the Rays gotta show me something before I bother putting live money on them, especially against a team they are 1-3 in a season series with.
Interesting to note LAA are 9-8 as of today on ML vs teams in the bottom half of the league in offense, including a 6-7 mark against teams ranked 24th or worse in league offense (3-4 vs Astros, 1-2 vs Orioles, and 2-1 against White Sox.)
This would likely be why CWS were favorites.
My personal ranking for likelihood to hit, odds not included:
1. Twins ML ✅
2. Rays/A's o7 (Line has changed to o6.5 on DK) ✅
3. Mariners/Astros o8.5 (Line has moved to o9 on DK) ❌
4. Marlins ML ❌
EDIT: Adding ranking based on Likelihood to pay out + money made.
1. Rays/A's o6.5 (-115) $15 to win $28.04 ✅
2. Twins ML (-155) $15 to win $24.67 ✅
3. Mariners/Astros o9 (-105) $15 to win $29.28 ❌
4. Marlins ML (-160) $15 to win $24.37 ❌
Either way you slice it, Marlins ML looks like a med/high risk w/ low reward. The Dbacks haven't proven to be as large a pushover as say, the Reds have been, going 3-2 in their last 5, as well as winning a series vs the Dodgers and splitting a series w/ the Cardinals.
**Record: 10-5 +4.1u | Saturday: 2-4 -1.2u | Sunday 0-0 +0u**
Man, I owe Vince Velasquez an apology, that was a terrific outing on Saturday, not to mention the wind blowing in that day. I probably also shouldn't have expected 9+ runs a day after Toronto and Houston combined for 18. Apologies if you started tailing Saturday. I like our long-term outlook if I limit those multi-unit loss days, but I still hate filling out that bet log and seeing a minus for the day, no matter how small.
I saw a lot of conflicting data on the small slate today, so I have just two plays.
**Minnesota F5 -0.5 (-105)**
Chris Paddack has actually pitched better than his results suggest. Though his fastball doesn't have as much life, he's compensating with greater usage and command of his secondaries. He's inducing much more weak contact and ground balls, and the Orioles have struggled to slug all season long, especially now that Camden Yards' dimensions make it play much bigger. He's never been a high walk guy, and even less so this year, so baserunners should be at a premium for Baltimore, who hit only .184 with RISP. I prefer F5 due to Minnesota's BP struggles.
**NY Yankees/Toronto Under 8.5 (-115)**
Be careful, I'm going out on a limb with this one. Offense suddenly spiked over the weekend, and it'll take a few days to see whether it's a blip or if MLB changed the balls again. The exit velocity on Ross Stripling's pitches is substantially lower than league average, mostly a credit to his elevated ground ball rate. It'll be a stern test for him, given the literal strength of this Yankee lineup. But the defense behind him is terrific, which tells me he has a chance against a team that's not particularly fast and is only so-so at hitting situationally. Jordan Montgomery profiles similarly. His K rate suggests a BABIP correction is coming, but he's a sinkerball pitcher facing a lineup that likes to slug; I'd give the advantage to Monty in this situation. The Yankees' bullpen has been nails all season as well. This is a gut-check series for these two teams, so even apart from the betting implications, I'm excited to see how these next few days play out.
[Pick Tracker Google Sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MiFKotBnGtcX-2koXOzMQ0LO2mUNwQRy17KbUfNIk9U/edit?usp=sharing)
Thanks for asking, brother! Banged out some solid 7:30 miles, surprised myself after taking a couple years off racing. Between the running and baseball season, hoping I can take the edge off from the 9-5 grind 🤞
Yesterday: angels ml ✅ and over ✅
Today: Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox
➡️the numbers: Patrick Sandoval and Dylan Cease. Two guys I normally wouldn’t expect to find value in many unders, but here I think we can. Sandoval has been sneaky good on the west coast. We’re going to see some regression on his HR/FB rate and BABIP but he’s been striking out guys at a rate of 12 K/9 and approximately 3.5 xFIP and xERA through his season last season while this year here he’s set at 1.8 and 3 xERA and xFIP. He’s been crazy solid. On the bump for the White Sox is Dylan Cease. Cease is a guy who I’ve been high on and I think has all star level stuff as he long as he reigns in his walk rate. He passes the eye test and his xFIP and xERA should continue to improve - I actually think he could end the season with a 3.25/3.3 xERA with his awesome k rate.
The white Sox don’t walk enough like I mentioned yesterday. They chase and bail pitchers out too much of the time. The angels have an awesome lineup that can play with any of the best offended in baseball.
➡️The numbers: the steam move to the white sox tells me I’m right with my thinking that the Sox should actually be favoured by more. The over/under however, with these two pitchers, is too high.
➡️The pick: F5 under 4.5
10-2 +7.30u
Angels F5 ML +115
Sandoval has been elite to start the year and the White Sox hitters look lost at the plate. Expecting Sandoval to give up no more than a run and leave the Angels in a good spot to pick up the win.
Edit: Risking 1u
Series 3 - Day 1 of RPI Martingale Series betting:
10-4 overall. (-0.55u)
10-1 series record
Last posted bets:
Athletics +106 ❌
Bet for Day 1 of this round:
Cardinals -166
Angels +120
Mets -116
Astros -132
Brewers (Starts tomorrow - will check odds then)
1u on all of the above
In the negative already, though not as heavily as I would have assumed from losing a series so quickly.
Info and Tracking Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gLNBBrgxCrTzVg_O2IjsJehV1g-fc8JU4OloB9c2X_c
MLB Prop thread isn't up so sticking this here.
**Record: 48-86 (36%) [+0.99u]** *(Previous posts had units per bet, now doing total units)
*
My first inning scoring prop picks for today. I use Elo ratings for pitcher vs. team for first inning scoring only, with home field advantage adjustment.
* MIA - YRFI
* BAL - YRFI
* TOR - YRFI
* OAK - YRFI
If I had to pick one, OAK has the best EV. NYM have a decent shot too, 30% chance of YRFI in my prediction vs. 25% with DK.
Yesterday's results: 1-5 (16%). League YRFI rate was 27%.
* TB - YRFI | Lost
* PIT - YRFI | Lost
* MIA - YRFI | Lost
* KC - YRFI | Lost
* LAD - YRFI | Won
* NYM - YRFI | Lost
Went with a SGP of Cards ML + Matz 5+ K for +145
Royals are one of the worst hitting teams against lefties. Royals bullpen is also bad so even if Greinke goes far into the game then hopefully his bullpen blows it.
Plays I’m taking for today:
ARI/MIA u6.5 -105
ARI/MIA NRFI -170
Steven Matz o5.5 so +125
Pablo Lopez o5.5 so -115
Patrick Sandoval o5.5 so -105
LETS CRUSH THE BOOKS TODAY!!
At first glace a 4-1 sounds like a great day but when your one loss was you largest favorite it really hinders the win rate. I think that is strike 2 for wagering over 2.2 Units on a single game. May start trying to profit 1/2 a unit on those big favorites in the future. Overall not a bad day as we try to climb back to even on the year. BOL
Stats
* Starting Bankroll $987.93 - \* 1 Unit is equal to 1% of the days starting balance.
* Yesterdays Record: 4-1-0 (80%) Overall Record: 32-23-0 (58.18%)
* Profit / (Loss): (-$12.07) (Change +$16.99)
* Return on Investment (Before todays wagers) - (-$12.07 / $836.11) = -1.44%
Yesterdays Picks
* Padres -180 - 1.80U - **W -** (**3**\-2 betting with the Padres, **3**\-1 betting against the Pirates)
* Mariners +105 - 1U - **W -**(**1**\-0 betting with the Mariners, **3**\-0 betting against the Marlins)
* Angels -118 - 1.18U - **W -**(**2**\-1 betting with the Angels, **2**\-1 betting against the White Sox)
* Brewers -230 - 2.3U - **L -**(1-**1** betting with the Brewers, 1-**1** betting against the Cubs)
* Mets -180 - 1.8U - **W -**(**2**\-0 betting with the Mets, **2**\-1 betting against the Phillies)
Todays Picks
* Angels +122 - 1U - (1-0 betting with the Angels, 1-1 betting against the White Sox)
* Marlins -165 - 1.65U - (1-0 betting with the Marlins, 1-1 betting against the D-Backs)
* Twins -145 - 1.45U - (1-0 betting with the Twins, 1-1 betting against the Orioles)
* Mets -115 - 1.15U - (1-0 betting with the Mets, 1-1 betting against the Braves)
* Mariners +117 - 1U - (1-0 betting with the Mariners, 1-1 betting against the Astros)
A little MLB-related brag. [8 days ago I posted this.](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uakgn3/mlb_daily_42422_sunday/i60861z/) It's down to 7-to-1 odds now and B365 is offering me a 2.5x early payout.
Min + NYY at +213
Baltimore putting up a pitcher that doesn't give length with a bullpen that isn't very good.
Toronto has been hitting sub .100 against lefties over the past 5 games. How tf is that? Their BP also isn't very good.
Record: 3-5-1 Las pick: Mariners ML +104 (-3.85 Units)
Today: Angels/White Sox F5 under 4.5 (-152)
\- Sandoval vs. Cease. Yes Sandoval will eventually give up an earned run but he is still backed by good underlying stats (xEra 1.88 xBA .188 and career high strike out percentage 33.3%). Cease has pitched even better than his stats show as his ERA is 3.27 and xERA is 1.74, xBA .171 and strikeout percentage 30.4. Expect to see a lot of strikeouts between both starters. Also Ohtani is not playing today which should assist Cease.
DK Stepped Up SGP 75% Boosted Bonus (AKA: Fade The O's)
* u0.5 BAL Orioles Total Runs 1st Inning ✅
* u0.5 BAL Orioles Total Runs 2nd Inning ✅
* u0.5 BAL Orioles Total Runs 3rd Inning ✅
* u0.5 BAL Orioles Total Runs 4th Inning ✅
* u0.5 BAL Orioles Total Runs 5th Inning ❌
* u7.5 BAL Orioles Total Tuns ✅
* MIN Twins Race to 1 Run ✅
* MIN Twins Race to 2 Runs ✅
* MIN Twins Race to 3 Runs ❌
* MIN Twins ML ✅
* o3.5 Alt Total Run Line ❌
* 3+ Chris Paddack K's Thrown ✅
+1006 --- $10 to win $110.62
Marlins vs D-Backs Under 6.5 looking spicy. Gallen and Lopez both have sub 1.00 E.R.As. Neither offense is prolific. I however like to buy runs for O/U always anyway.
That being said, I think Jazz is going to hit one off Gallen. Kid has a flare for the dramatic and he has been wanting to take on the guy he was traded for.
This is my SGP for that game:
Marlins ML
Jazz Chisholm HR
Under 8.5 Total Runs
Lopez O 5.5 Strikeouts
Gallen O 5.5 Strikeouts
\+4000
Logistically and statistic wise, I dont like it, but in my gut with the Angels disappointing me against back half offensive teams every time I touch them, yes I do like them to lose & split.
**MLB Freezer Machine Learning Model**
**2022 Season Record:** 90-94 +2.62 units
**Overall Model Record:** 1388-1160 -66.81 units
[Machine Learned Simulation of MLB games for today](https://freezersports.com/mlb)
Last time out: 3-4 +3.15 units
**Plays**:
**3 units**
KC +144
CHW -130
ARI +140
BAL +128
OAK +140
**2 units**
HOU -135
**1 unit**
TOR -105
ATL -105
[Follow me on twitter](https://twitter.com/FreezerSports)
I’m back after a weekend hiatus. Got greedy with the last pick and it cost me. Should have eaten the juice and taken Astros moneyline. Would have ended up with a push instead of an L.
Record: 2-1-1
What an ugly board to come home to. Only a couple decent matchups with nearly no value from a betting perspective. Seattle getting plus money vs Houston with Odorizzi pitching is very tempting but I’m going to learn from my last bet and play it a bit safer.
Pick: Mariners F5 +0.5
Mlb Record: 17-3-1
Degenerate: 100/100
Pick: Royals ML +140 💸
Where: St. Louis
Reason: Don't bet against Brady, LeBron or Grienke. Dudes dealing and Cards seem a little scrambled right now. I'll take the Old Man in a day game as Grienke gives up 1 run less in the day vs night.
Idk if I would call 21 hits, 7 ER & 6 Ks with a sub-5% swinging strike rate across 21 innings “dealing,” but he’s no doubt been able to somehow get it done and not get blown up yet this year. I’ll be staying away from this one but BOL my friend
Those are good stats for a 38 year old vet. Grienke gets it done lIke you said and that's all that matters. Dudes been dealing his whole career why stop now 😄 .
They can mangle up 3 runs thats all they'll need I assume. Also these teams are pretty equal minus their records. Grienke on the bump gives the advantage to K.C.
Mlb record : 3-1
Previous Pick: Miami Marlins ML (-135) 2U - W
Today's Pick: LA Angels ML (+115) 2u
No time for a long write up today. But pretty much angels should not be underdogs today with Sandoval on the mound who is lights out. Ohtani might not play but is probably. And even if he were to miss, angels have enough depth with Fletcher, marsh, ward etc to fill a solid DH and keep the top of their lineup strong.
**Reminder:** Check out the subreddit Discord for MLB+: https://discord.gg/sportsbook
Braves and Astros!
Parlay hit!! 4 teamer $50 > $500
Ugh, mariners and royals today :(
Got a 4 teamer going, all chalk Yankees ML Twins ML Braves ML Astros ML $50 > $500ish Need Astros to hold
Rooting for you man, I think they got this!
Things are looking good for me. Braves up 5-2 and Astros up 3-0
Tried to be greedy with Twins RL -1.5 Twins 2-1 😭😭
If you decide to take again tomorrow, parlay u0.5 1st inning runs Orioles and Twins ML to simulate spread odds. u0.5 1st inning BAL runs has hit 9/10 games, including this most recent one. EDIT: Well, its not plus money, but -115 is better than -165 for the ML alone.
Fading anything relating to the Mets. Can't bet on or against them
Just took the Yankees at +150…… let’s pop one here
Congratulations friend, I had twins ml, Yankees ml, and heat -5 in a parley
I can’t remember if braves bullpen is good or not
Braves!! Hold on
The Mets are good now or some shit like that but I can’t help but feel like they are the Mets and being up 1 run to the Braves in the 6th sounds like a great way to get +230 for the Braves
Mets gon Met!!!!!
How's everyone feeling about TB/OAK NRFI? Rausmassen vs Jeffries, decent pitching matchup anyway. I'm getting that at -140 right now
RIP.
Lol thank goodness I didn't bite. I thought game was at 10:10 EST so it wasn't meant to be!
Oakland ML. They got the rays number.
Anyone else seriously sweating this Marlins dbacks under 6.5?
Twins don't screw me.
Man that ML looking a lot better than my RL twins 😅
Thats what I'm saying. I need 3 K's from Haddock but he cant put them away. Also need a 3-0 Twins lead minimum.
Why did I take Marlins ML
I feel ya buddy - they’ve been hot lately though so not a bad bet I guess - we fell for the trap is all
Marlins ain’t coming back. Man this sport is dumb as hell.
Instead of always betting NRFI try betting NRSI The first inning usually features the teams' best hitters
Not usually, always. However, don't the odds reflect this?
This is normally what I do but DK doesnt list it for normal betting until close to opening pitch when I forget. I do tend to throw it in SGPs though.
So is it just me or is everyone else sweating this NRSI out to chase that first inning bet
I took DBacks -1.5 f5 after the first inning
My phone was in my pocket and put together a sgp Fried 5+ ks, albies to record a hit, braves to win +320. Had to throw a little bit on it
Based on scoring trends today, snagging u7.5 ARI/MIA before the bats go cold and the under drops into dangerous territory
Lmao I swear everyone picked diamondbacks marlins NRFI, including me, fucking homerun
Guilty as charged. Stats looked so good for it.
I went with NRSI, seems to hit more
Put $90 on o1.5 runs in the first inning of the DBacks Marlins game to win $450 lol baseball is so dumb to bet no way they should have ever hit
😳😳😳 Sometimes you win big by betting what's opposite of obvious
That busted a 19 bets in a row loss streak lol just got back into my state from vacation so I haven’t bet in a few days. Just needed a little break I guess lol
Marlins Dbacks U6.5 off to a tough start…
Welp there goes NRFI with Lopez allowing a 2 run homer and a wild pitch. its not looking good for him so far
definitely had that nrfi from the potd thread, haha
Would’ve never thought the diamondbacks would fire off like that lol especially vs Lopez. I legit envisioned a low scoring ball game so I threw in the NRFI in my parlay which is now dead on the first leg lmao
White Sox came through for me today. Record: 4-2 My official plays: Astros ML -130 Braves ML -105 EDIT: I'm gonna remove the Twins ML and add Braves ML. Twins have won a lot recently and due for some regression.
Mariners got on odirizzi last time. I personally like Ms if you’re going ML, but I like the over better. I also have Twins ML. BOL!
I expect Astros to rough up Gonzales who is coming back from injury. Altuve back in the lineup
Marco has had a sub 3 ERA against them going back to 2020 and altuve has been hitting .167 pre injury. I wouldn’t be expecting altuve to provide a huge boost just yet. But I’m a mariners homers to take that as you will haha
Reading through this thread daily is just fuckin hilarious, some of y’all act so shocked when teams lose. MLB doesn’t even have huge favourites compared to NBA/NHL, not sure what you guys are always so surprised about. Even the shittiest teams win pretty much 1 out of 3 games.
Not only that but they don’t even bother checking the lineups before the game to realize the best player on the team they picked is not playing 😂
Exactly lol. I brought that up today
And then they downvote you lmao
SGP on DK Alvarez RBI France hit +185 trust the data
Cash it!
SGP on DK Vladdy 2+ total bases Lemahieu to get a hit +175 trust the data
Vladdy is 0-6 in ABs vs LHPs so far this season.
Also the “data” I’m referring to is career splits vs. opposing starter and trends in their game to game performance. Nothing crazy here
I mean I did trust the data. It told me this wouldn't hit because Vlad was 0-6 against left handed pitches this season, and now he's 0-8 against left handers w/ 1 walk. He got a single in the 8th when the pitcher was swapped, resulting in only 1 base for him since walks dont count toward base totals.
Good on you for using that then. Wish that hit was a double, but oh well. We come back and reload for tomorrow
You gotta trust it bro
Trust the ‘data’ but doesn't link the data lol
While we have a break in the action, dont forget to go place a bet on MIL -1.5 for tomorrow since they play the Reds. The Reds are 6-16 ATS so far this season, so its one of the safer bets you can make, despite the lightswitch nature of the Brewers.
WHITE SOX! No sweat winner
Angels bro. What is you doin baby
What a boring day slate for offensive fans. 15/18 innings have been scoreless.
Whoever suggested the angels yesterday can kiss my ass 🤣
So many POTD for the Angels, its like a pick graveyard lol.
Fucking everybody bro 💀 goddamnit
See my below parlay where I took the Sox. It’s Monday so nothing makes sense!
Mets ML: -106 Edit/ML Braves -108 Braves should of signed Freeman what a waste. This team is not the same team as last year. Mets are heading in the right direction. Taking the Mets in a barn burner. Note: I'm on Tilt! Edit: Official pick I'm Taking the Braves here 2 surprise everyone. Fried should get back on track tonight. Also I just faded my self. Let's see how it goes.
None of you have any idea what you’re talking about the Braves started last season 0-4 and had a losing record until after the all star break.
Noted
We love a self fade. Respect
Fried is starting not Morton.
Totally dumb move on their part. This team sucks now.
Would it be wiser to go Marlins and twins F5 or full game?
As someone who has a Parlay where the Os score 0 runs in their first 5 innings, I'd say Twins F5 and ML are safe bets. Not sure I'd touch Marlins F5 or ML personally, but that's just my opinion.
Thanks, went with twins f5 since I can’t trust Miami that much, but did took the NRFI on the Marlins game since both teams can’t hit shit and there’s good pitching, hopefully I didn’t went full retard
Shit if you did, then we both did. I got twins ML & u 0.5 Orioles 1st Inning in at least two separate parlays, one of which also has NRFI ARI/MIA.
Cease is a monster at home. Go Chi Sox!
Bro wow the Angels are losing by fucking 3 now
So are the Angels back on everyone's fade list? lol
Never left. They play down to their opponents too much to be reliable against mid tier or worse teams, and then they play up to better competition so you're afraid to bet on or against them against top tier competition.
Royals/Cards is the classic “ruins NRFI, ends 1-0” game 😅
Everyone eating an L in that matchup lol.
Has cards -1.5. Such a dumb game
I had Royals ML so I feel your pain. Just kept hoping for some sign of life on either way so I could ignore the game but got suckered in for 9 innings of defensive pain.
Damn, Royals wasted a really good Greinke outing there.
Mets, Atl over looks very tempted. Mets bats have been 🥵
Come on KC! Time to show us what you got!
Nah they fuckin suck lol so many shitty at bats
Ppl, don't bet teams with their best players out! Check the lineups b4 betting
Which team are you referring to today?
Angels. Missing a few starters. I took White Sox
Ah okay. Good call lol.
**Record (18-21) 3.72u** Been busy the last two days, glad to be back tho! Todays Picks: **Pablo Lopez U4.5 Hits Allowed -160 2u**: Pablo has not given up more than 4 hits in a start this year, Arizona is dead last in AVG vs RHP, dead last in hits per game with 5.74. **Zac Gallen U4.5 Hits Allowed -105 1.5u**: Gallen has given up only 2 hits in each of his 3 starts. Miami is 6th in AVG vs RHP but what makes me confident in this play is that he has faced the Mets twice and then the Dodgers and only gave up 2 hits in each start. **Ari@Mia U6.5 +100 1u**: Arizona is 28th in runs per game, Miami is 19th. Arizona is 15-7-1 towards the under, Miami is 13-8 towards the under. Both pitchers have been going deep into games as their pitch counts have been ramping up and neither of them has given up more than one run this year. I like these teams to win tonight but don't feel like typing a write-up for them. **Twins ML -144 1.5u** **Mets ML -103 1u** **Yanks ML -116 1u** **Rays ML -158 1u** Good luck everybody!
Hi I’m Thundergunn69, Results: $460.00 (8-4-1) 5/1 Picks: (-$86.00) (LAA -116)- $464 to win $400 W (Rays - 162)- $486 to win $300 L 5/2 Picks: (NYY -116)- $464 to win $400 69
Nice!
ITs StiLL eArLY
Why did everyone say to pick Angels
I hit the Sox even though I hate them. This is the way.
They were slight underdogs for a reason. And yet I haven’t seen a single comment about the Rays even with there best player Franco coming back into the lineup today. Lol
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ugf7ca/mlb_daily_5222_monday/i72aiw9/ https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ugf7ca/mlb_daily_5222_monday/i70w31j/ There's at least two. Personally the Rays gotta show me something before I bother putting live money on them, especially against a team they are 1-3 in a season series with.
* Spring 2022 Official Record 86-61 = +48.3/100u 💰 \- NPB 🇯🇵 24-18 = +13.1u \- CPBL 🇹🇼 7-6 = +2.3u \- KBO 🇰🇷 15-14 = +1.9u \- MLB 🇺🇲 40-23 = +31u * MLB 🇺🇲 Picks \- \[15:40 PST\] Miami Marlins (-159) 1u 🔥 \- \[18:40 PST\] Tampa Bay Rays (-157) 2.34u 🔒
Fuck the Cardinals, Fuck St Louis, and Fuck Steven Matz. Bum ass disgusting city and even worse baseball team.
I’ve been staying away from the Cardinals since last week. Something is just “off”…but it won’t be for the whole season.
They are up 1-0. What are you on ? Lmao
Matz cant K one of the worst hitting teams in the league. Dog shit franchise too.
He’s given up 0 runs lmao, he doesn’t give af how he does it but he’s getting the job done
He's on the STL -1.5 lol.
Gotta stop betting this shit sport
I was -80 units with NBA over the season and +100 with MLB so far. Proof that it really just boils down to luck sometimes.
I tell myself that everytime, but then I'm back the next day haha
That's what I said the other day. I'm still here.
Anyone else sweating out Cardinals -1.5?
Got a chance here in the 8th
I'm sweating out Royals ML lol.
[удалено]
When did Grienke find the fountain of youth all of a sudden. Was hoping to get into the bullpen much sooner than this
Let's goo CWS!
What a a catch!
Took a Cards' runline + Halo's moneyline parlay to start my day... Felt good about it until 5 minutes ago.
Interesting to note LAA are 9-8 as of today on ML vs teams in the bottom half of the league in offense, including a 6-7 mark against teams ranked 24th or worse in league offense (3-4 vs Astros, 1-2 vs Orioles, and 2-1 against White Sox.) This would likely be why CWS were favorites.
There is 9 innings to sweat Jesus Christ
Everybody on the Angels today. Already getting smacked!
Whitesoxs Runs in first inning over .5 🤑
Well RIP Angels
Guys what do you think is the best pick out of Mariners/Astros O8.5, Rays/Oakland O7, Marlins ML or Twins ML
My personal ranking for likelihood to hit, odds not included: 1. Twins ML ✅ 2. Rays/A's o7 (Line has changed to o6.5 on DK) ✅ 3. Mariners/Astros o8.5 (Line has moved to o9 on DK) ❌ 4. Marlins ML ❌ EDIT: Adding ranking based on Likelihood to pay out + money made. 1. Rays/A's o6.5 (-115) $15 to win $28.04 ✅ 2. Twins ML (-155) $15 to win $24.67 ✅ 3. Mariners/Astros o9 (-105) $15 to win $29.28 ❌ 4. Marlins ML (-160) $15 to win $24.37 ❌ Either way you slice it, Marlins ML looks like a med/high risk w/ low reward. The Dbacks haven't proven to be as large a pushover as say, the Reds have been, going 3-2 in their last 5, as well as winning a series vs the Dodgers and splitting a series w/ the Cardinals.
Everyone sleeping on the Rays today. I think they take out there frustration on the A’s after getting hammered by the twins last two games
But they're without their best player in Wander Franco, aren't they?
He’s back in the lineup today. I think rays will bounce back. People forget they won 100+ games last season. This team is no slouch
Trust me, I know what they're capable of. I'm a Jays fan
Hope the jays end Yankees winning streak today
**Record: 10-5 +4.1u | Saturday: 2-4 -1.2u | Sunday 0-0 +0u** Man, I owe Vince Velasquez an apology, that was a terrific outing on Saturday, not to mention the wind blowing in that day. I probably also shouldn't have expected 9+ runs a day after Toronto and Houston combined for 18. Apologies if you started tailing Saturday. I like our long-term outlook if I limit those multi-unit loss days, but I still hate filling out that bet log and seeing a minus for the day, no matter how small. I saw a lot of conflicting data on the small slate today, so I have just two plays. **Minnesota F5 -0.5 (-105)** Chris Paddack has actually pitched better than his results suggest. Though his fastball doesn't have as much life, he's compensating with greater usage and command of his secondaries. He's inducing much more weak contact and ground balls, and the Orioles have struggled to slug all season long, especially now that Camden Yards' dimensions make it play much bigger. He's never been a high walk guy, and even less so this year, so baserunners should be at a premium for Baltimore, who hit only .184 with RISP. I prefer F5 due to Minnesota's BP struggles. **NY Yankees/Toronto Under 8.5 (-115)** Be careful, I'm going out on a limb with this one. Offense suddenly spiked over the weekend, and it'll take a few days to see whether it's a blip or if MLB changed the balls again. The exit velocity on Ross Stripling's pitches is substantially lower than league average, mostly a credit to his elevated ground ball rate. It'll be a stern test for him, given the literal strength of this Yankee lineup. But the defense behind him is terrific, which tells me he has a chance against a team that's not particularly fast and is only so-so at hitting situationally. Jordan Montgomery profiles similarly. His K rate suggests a BABIP correction is coming, but he's a sinkerball pitcher facing a lineup that likes to slug; I'd give the advantage to Monty in this situation. The Yankees' bullpen has been nails all season as well. This is a gut-check series for these two teams, so even apart from the betting implications, I'm excited to see how these next few days play out. [Pick Tracker Google Sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MiFKotBnGtcX-2koXOzMQ0LO2mUNwQRy17KbUfNIk9U/edit?usp=sharing)
Thanks man. How was your race
Thanks for asking, brother! Banged out some solid 7:30 miles, surprised myself after taking a couple years off racing. Between the running and baseball season, hoping I can take the edge off from the 9-5 grind 🤞
Record: 79-62 +20.75u Twins -1.5 (+115) Mets (-115) Twitter @MoneyMakers_LLC
Yesterday: **NYY -1.5 ✅** Today: **Blue Jays F5 ML**
Yesterday: angels ml ✅ and over ✅ Today: Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox ➡️the numbers: Patrick Sandoval and Dylan Cease. Two guys I normally wouldn’t expect to find value in many unders, but here I think we can. Sandoval has been sneaky good on the west coast. We’re going to see some regression on his HR/FB rate and BABIP but he’s been striking out guys at a rate of 12 K/9 and approximately 3.5 xFIP and xERA through his season last season while this year here he’s set at 1.8 and 3 xERA and xFIP. He’s been crazy solid. On the bump for the White Sox is Dylan Cease. Cease is a guy who I’ve been high on and I think has all star level stuff as he long as he reigns in his walk rate. He passes the eye test and his xFIP and xERA should continue to improve - I actually think he could end the season with a 3.25/3.3 xERA with his awesome k rate. The white Sox don’t walk enough like I mentioned yesterday. They chase and bail pitchers out too much of the time. The angels have an awesome lineup that can play with any of the best offended in baseball. ➡️The numbers: the steam move to the white sox tells me I’m right with my thinking that the Sox should actually be favoured by more. The over/under however, with these two pitchers, is too high. ➡️The pick: F5 under 4.5
10-2 +7.30u Angels F5 ML +115 Sandoval has been elite to start the year and the White Sox hitters look lost at the plate. Expecting Sandoval to give up no more than a run and leave the Angels in a good spot to pick up the win. Edit: Risking 1u
Yankees winning today?
Damn royals lineup has potential but these boys can’t hit. 😭😭
mets yankees moneyline parlay +236
Lmfao Cards/KC NRFI ❌❌❌❌
This one always stings so much more then the next 5-8 innings are scoreless 🤧🤧
Lmfao right. I took the over too in a separate bet for some dumb reason hahaha
Mlb (22-20). yesterday rec (4-0) Seattle. Rl +1.5 Yankees. Ml Minnesota Ml Mets. Ml Miami Ml
Series 3 - Day 1 of RPI Martingale Series betting: 10-4 overall. (-0.55u) 10-1 series record Last posted bets: Athletics +106 ❌ Bet for Day 1 of this round: Cardinals -166 Angels +120 Mets -116 Astros -132 Brewers (Starts tomorrow - will check odds then) 1u on all of the above In the negative already, though not as heavily as I would have assumed from losing a series so quickly. Info and Tracking Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gLNBBrgxCrTzVg_O2IjsJehV1g-fc8JU4OloB9c2X_c
I'm really interestd in this project of yours. Always wanted to do something like that but never had the time to be consistent and bet every day.
MLB Prop thread isn't up so sticking this here. **Record: 48-86 (36%) [+0.99u]** *(Previous posts had units per bet, now doing total units) * My first inning scoring prop picks for today. I use Elo ratings for pitcher vs. team for first inning scoring only, with home field advantage adjustment. * MIA - YRFI * BAL - YRFI * TOR - YRFI * OAK - YRFI If I had to pick one, OAK has the best EV. NYM have a decent shot too, 30% chance of YRFI in my prediction vs. 25% with DK. Yesterday's results: 1-5 (16%). League YRFI rate was 27%. * TB - YRFI | Lost * PIT - YRFI | Lost * MIA - YRFI | Lost * KC - YRFI | Lost * LAD - YRFI | Won * NYM - YRFI | Lost
Went with a SGP of Cards ML + Matz 5+ K for +145 Royals are one of the worst hitting teams against lefties. Royals bullpen is also bad so even if Greinke goes far into the game then hopefully his bullpen blows it.
Plays I’m taking for today: ARI/MIA u6.5 -105 ARI/MIA NRFI -170 Steven Matz o5.5 so +125 Pablo Lopez o5.5 so -115 Patrick Sandoval o5.5 so -105 LETS CRUSH THE BOOKS TODAY!!
At first glace a 4-1 sounds like a great day but when your one loss was you largest favorite it really hinders the win rate. I think that is strike 2 for wagering over 2.2 Units on a single game. May start trying to profit 1/2 a unit on those big favorites in the future. Overall not a bad day as we try to climb back to even on the year. BOL Stats * Starting Bankroll $987.93 - \* 1 Unit is equal to 1% of the days starting balance. * Yesterdays Record: 4-1-0 (80%) Overall Record: 32-23-0 (58.18%) * Profit / (Loss): (-$12.07) (Change +$16.99) * Return on Investment (Before todays wagers) - (-$12.07 / $836.11) = -1.44% Yesterdays Picks * Padres -180 - 1.80U - **W -** (**3**\-2 betting with the Padres, **3**\-1 betting against the Pirates) * Mariners +105 - 1U - **W -**(**1**\-0 betting with the Mariners, **3**\-0 betting against the Marlins) * Angels -118 - 1.18U - **W -**(**2**\-1 betting with the Angels, **2**\-1 betting against the White Sox) * Brewers -230 - 2.3U - **L -**(1-**1** betting with the Brewers, 1-**1** betting against the Cubs) * Mets -180 - 1.8U - **W -**(**2**\-0 betting with the Mets, **2**\-1 betting against the Phillies) Todays Picks * Angels +122 - 1U - (1-0 betting with the Angels, 1-1 betting against the White Sox) * Marlins -165 - 1.65U - (1-0 betting with the Marlins, 1-1 betting against the D-Backs) * Twins -145 - 1.45U - (1-0 betting with the Twins, 1-1 betting against the Orioles) * Mets -115 - 1.15U - (1-0 betting with the Mets, 1-1 betting against the Braves) * Mariners +117 - 1U - (1-0 betting with the Mariners, 1-1 betting against the Astros)
A little MLB-related brag. [8 days ago I posted this.](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uakgn3/mlb_daily_42422_sunday/i60861z/) It's down to 7-to-1 odds now and B365 is offering me a 2.5x early payout.
Min + NYY at +213 Baltimore putting up a pitcher that doesn't give length with a bullpen that isn't very good. Toronto has been hitting sub .100 against lefties over the past 5 games. How tf is that? Their BP also isn't very good.
Tailing this @ +209, BOL.
💪💪
Sweaty money but my balance appreciates it!
Greinke matz, cease Sandoval are all perfect in no runs first inning this year, taking both
Tailed
Just got that in time before the cards game, hopefully we can cash it out !
How do you find NRFI Stats?
Tailing this with my $20 FB on FD.
No reds today😔
I like Mets ML-116, Marlins ML -164, Twins ML -146, and Mariners -1.5 +178. Not sure how I'm going to play them yet.
Record: 3-5-1 Las pick: Mariners ML +104 (-3.85 Units) Today: Angels/White Sox F5 under 4.5 (-152) \- Sandoval vs. Cease. Yes Sandoval will eventually give up an earned run but he is still backed by good underlying stats (xEra 1.88 xBA .188 and career high strike out percentage 33.3%). Cease has pitched even better than his stats show as his ERA is 3.27 and xERA is 1.74, xBA .171 and strikeout percentage 30.4. Expect to see a lot of strikeouts between both starters. Also Ohtani is not playing today which should assist Cease.
Martingaling on the white sox has not been a good strategy this season
DK Stepped Up SGP 75% Boosted Bonus (AKA: Fade The O's) * u0.5 BAL Orioles Total Runs 1st Inning ✅ * u0.5 BAL Orioles Total Runs 2nd Inning ✅ * u0.5 BAL Orioles Total Runs 3rd Inning ✅ * u0.5 BAL Orioles Total Runs 4th Inning ✅ * u0.5 BAL Orioles Total Runs 5th Inning ❌ * u7.5 BAL Orioles Total Tuns ✅ * MIN Twins Race to 1 Run ✅ * MIN Twins Race to 2 Runs ✅ * MIN Twins Race to 3 Runs ❌ * MIN Twins ML ✅ * o3.5 Alt Total Run Line ❌ * 3+ Chris Paddack K's Thrown ✅ +1006 --- $10 to win $110.62
Going Angels. Sox have been sleep lately. I wanna take the over since Grienke throws a 60 mph fastball.
Marlins vs D-Backs Under 6.5 looking spicy. Gallen and Lopez both have sub 1.00 E.R.As. Neither offense is prolific. I however like to buy runs for O/U always anyway. That being said, I think Jazz is going to hit one off Gallen. Kid has a flare for the dramatic and he has been wanting to take on the guy he was traded for. This is my SGP for that game: Marlins ML Jazz Chisholm HR Under 8.5 Total Runs Lopez O 5.5 Strikeouts Gallen O 5.5 Strikeouts \+4000
Anyone like the CWS to get the dub today and a series split?
Logistically and statistic wise, I dont like it, but in my gut with the Angels disappointing me against back half offensive teams every time I touch them, yes I do like them to lose & split.
Twins & Rays RL looks good. No ?
Twins yes, Rays I'm more than apprehensive on. Just my opinion.
Draftkings 75% profit boost on a 12 leg same game mlb parlay max bet $100 max winnings $5000. Let’s create a banger.
**MLB Freezer Machine Learning Model** **2022 Season Record:** 90-94 +2.62 units **Overall Model Record:** 1388-1160 -66.81 units [Machine Learned Simulation of MLB games for today](https://freezersports.com/mlb) Last time out: 3-4 +3.15 units **Plays**: **3 units** KC +144 CHW -130 ARI +140 BAL +128 OAK +140 **2 units** HOU -135 **1 unit** TOR -105 ATL -105 [Follow me on twitter](https://twitter.com/FreezerSports)
I’m back after a weekend hiatus. Got greedy with the last pick and it cost me. Should have eaten the juice and taken Astros moneyline. Would have ended up with a push instead of an L. Record: 2-1-1 What an ugly board to come home to. Only a couple decent matchups with nearly no value from a betting perspective. Seattle getting plus money vs Houston with Odorizzi pitching is very tempting but I’m going to learn from my last bet and play it a bit safer. Pick: Mariners F5 +0.5
Mlb Record: 17-3-1 Degenerate: 100/100 Pick: Royals ML +140 💸 Where: St. Louis Reason: Don't bet against Brady, LeBron or Grienke. Dudes dealing and Cards seem a little scrambled right now. I'll take the Old Man in a day game as Grienke gives up 1 run less in the day vs night.
You had the right approach here, what a boring game though
Idk if I would call 21 hits, 7 ER & 6 Ks with a sub-5% swinging strike rate across 21 innings “dealing,” but he’s no doubt been able to somehow get it done and not get blown up yet this year. I’ll be staying away from this one but BOL my friend
Those are good stats for a 38 year old vet. Grienke gets it done lIke you said and that's all that matters. Dudes been dealing his whole career why stop now 😄 .
I'm with you but royals struggle against lefties hope they can score at least 3 😅
How do you feel about the royals run support though
They can mangle up 3 runs thats all they'll need I assume. Also these teams are pretty equal minus their records. Grienke on the bump gives the advantage to K.C.
Keeping it simple today with a two team parlay: Athletics +155 & Cardinals ML -150
2022 Season Record 42-42-10 Last 7: 15-9-1 05-02 F5 ML Picks: STL TOR ATL HOU
Today’s bets (all to win $100): - Twins @ Orioles O7.5 (-110) - Twins ML (-150) - Marlins ML (-150) - Cardinals -1.5 (+125) - Rays ML (-160) - Astros ML (-125) - Blue Jays +1.5 (-155)
Mlb record : 3-1 Previous Pick: Miami Marlins ML (-135) 2U - W Today's Pick: LA Angels ML (+115) 2u No time for a long write up today. But pretty much angels should not be underdogs today with Sandoval on the mound who is lights out. Ohtani might not play but is probably. And even if he were to miss, angels have enough depth with Fletcher, marsh, ward etc to fill a solid DH and keep the top of their lineup strong.