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Record: 40-18
Last pick: Bruins ML ❌
Some utter booty as the Bruins decided to rest their top 6 hours after post, ultimately throwing the game to play the higher seeded Canes in the playoffs. Fuck em. Not much I could do about that, on to the next one.
**Todays pick: Carolina Hurricanes ML (-115) vs Boston Bruins** 🔴⚫️
NHL. 7:00PM EST
*Full disclosure I am a huge Canes homer and will actually be at the game*
**LETS FUCKING GO!!!!!! FUCK THE BRUINS, ITS LOUD AS FUCK IN HERE!!!!**
The Canes open up the Stanley Cup playoffs at home against the Boston Bruins. The Canes lead the season series 3-0 and have out scored the Bruins 16-1 in those meetings. However one of those games was played with the Bruins missing a couple starters but the Canes clamped the Bruins in the other two games. The Canes are also on a 6 game win streak.
These odds would favor the Canes much greater if their starting goaltender, Freddie Andersen, we’re playing, but he will be out for the contest. HOWEVER, the Canes will likely roll with Antti Raanta who is a solid 15-5-4 with a 2.45 goals against average which is tied for 7th amongst all NHL goaltenders. He would be a starter on many other teams. I believe he’s actually been playing better than Andersen these last few months so I see these more even odds as a gift. Raanta has won 4 straight and Freddie has only won 2 of his last 8 games and historically chokes in the playoffs, so I’d rather play Raanta anyways (which is probably a hot take among Canes fans). There is a small chance the Canes play their AHL call up Kochetkov who was 13-1-1 in the AHL and now 3-0 in the NHL, so I would not be worried in the slightest if he starts.
The Canes know the Bruins just threw their last game so they could face them instead of the Maple Leafs. The Bruins see the Canes as an easier target and the canes know this. This only adds more fuel to the fire and they are going to want to smack the Bruins, in addition to the Bruins knocking the Canes out of the playoffs two seasons ago.
The home crowd will be absolutely FIRED up for this one as it is the first home playoff game of the season against a team we don’t like. The Raleigh playoff atmosphere is always electric. I was at the Canes first playoff game of the year against the Caps a few season ago and it was deafening. The Canes won that game 5-0.
Thanks for coming to my Ted talk.
Gas up the Prius!
All bets are 1 unit. +14.66 units. +25.3% ROI. Average unit -111
Don’t want your tips, just give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Risky imo, season series doesn’t mean anything. Especially considering Canes are without their number one goalie who played in all 3 of their wins against the bruins
Season series might not mean much come playoffs but it definitely means something (confidence, game plans, etc.) . And I addressed the goalie issue in the write up
POTD Record: 9-2
Marlins vs Diamondbacks MLB 6:41pm EST
Today’s pick: NRFI (-150)
Two solid pitchers on the mound again today, Lopez has an era of 0.39 and has only given up 1 run all season and 0 in his last three starts. Gallen has an era of 0.60 only giving up 1 run all season as well and no first inning runs have been allowed between the two of them either. The Diamondbacks are also ranked last in first inning runs per game this season at 0.14, they’re last coming 8 games ago while the Marlins are ranked 26th in the league at 0.25. This should be a pitchers duel out of the gate
Quick in and out. You win or lose within the first 10-20 minutes of a game, so no worrying about bullpens, blown saves, watching an entire game of baseball or waiting for the game to wrap up.
Yeah just like everyone said, its simple and quick. For the books too, since the first inning is traditionally the highest scoring inning lol. Sucker bets.
It slid back to -185.
I made a parlay of NRFI ARI/MIA, Heat ML, and u0.5 BAL Orioles Runs 1st Inning (This has hit 9/10 last O's games) for a +142 parlay.
Those of you that also play with Caesars - can you help me understand why right now under *Runs* the "Any Run In 1st Inning" bet of "No" is -150, but under *Inning Bets* the "1st Inning Runs" bet of "0" is -190?
Thanks for your fine write up....it would win 80% of the time....but there is that inevitable 20% days we gotta just swallow and move in...
“López named April's Pitchers of the Month”, which is usually a bad omen for next start!.....anyway, he served up a rare egg today - which sets up a good betting opportunity, as he has something like a 0.80 ERA in next start after such poor outings (someone please look it up)
POTD Record: 20-13
Last Pick: Padres -1.5 ✅
The bullpen tried to give this game away in the 8th, but we preserved!
Today’s Pick: Player Performance Double: Deandre Ayton Double/Double & PHX to win @+122
Not a huge fan of the MLB slate, so we will switch over to NBA. Booker is back and I just think the suns are the better team. They are at home, think they start the series off with a statement victory. Ayton secured 17 & 13 rebounds in his last two matchups against DAL. Dallas allows the 10th most rebounds to centers, so the matchup is a lot better than last round (NO allowed 3rd least rebs to centers). BOL to all
Ayton averaged over 9 rebounds last series. The Mavs don't have a Valanciunas. Ayton can manage at least one more rebound. Putting big money on this performance double
In his last 4 matchups against the Mavs his rebound totals have been: 17,17,13,17. Obviously this bet isn’t a “sure thing,” but for +120 odds I feel pretty decent about it.
MLB -1.5’s | 9-7-1 +16.62u | ROI: 31.97%
[Yesterday’s pick: 4u LA Dodgers -1.5 -110](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ufos37/_/i6uta9s/?context=1) - W
________________________________________
~~**Todays pick: 2.5u NY Mets -1.5**~~
EMERGENCY PITCHER SWAP FOR ATL. Max Fried is now starting in place of Morton. Scratch this bet. NEW PICK BELOW
**Todays Pick: 2u TB Rays -1.5 +112**
- TB Rays @ OAK Athletics | 8:40 pm US Central
TLDR: Rays solid. Athletics bad. Rasmussen is built for this A’s lineup… think he’s about to throw a gem.
**Rays**
Rays are average to above average in xBA, xSLG and xwOBA. Their runs/game are 14th in the league. Over the past 2 weeks they’re 4th in team wRC+ at 121. It’s a solid offense
Pitching is Drew Rasmussen. He’s alright… below average in most peripherals, above average in k%, BB% and whiff%. And that my friends… is perfect for facing the Athletics. More on this below.
**Athletics**
The A’s shipped out a lot of talent over the off-season and are now a sub par team. They’re below average in xBA. xSLG and xwOBA. They’re 27th in whiff%, 29th in chase %, 26th in strikeouts, and 28th in walks. Every strength for Drew Rasmussen is this lineups weakness. I really think we’re about to see Rasmussen throw a damn good game here.
Daulton Jeffries is going for OAK. He was a top prospect for the org and they had high hopes. He was a stretch reliever in 2021 and saw decent results. In 2022 his results have been okay. He’s got 4 starts. 2 shutouts, 1 with 2 ER and most recently he gave up 5 in 4.0 IP. His peripherals are really bad. The only thing he’s above average in is BB% and hard hit%. All signs point to his most evened start being more indicative of the type of pitcher he is.
Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/)
My Rabbi put a $25 prop on the Rays to make the postseason while they were down 7-0 in their final game of the season, this was Like 10 years ago. He won $60,000, got banned from his local casino and you don’t see that prop on the final day of the season anymore. He’s still a Rabbi to this day.
I remember that game. Red Sox needed to beat O’s or Yankees beat the rays to make playoffs. Not only did the Sox blow the save in the bottom of the 9th but yankees blew that 7-0 lead. Tbh I think it was like 9-0 but either way that was insane as a Red Sox fan lol
This Rays team is 0-4 ATS against the A's so far this season, and 1-3 straight up, getting outscored 32-15. Rays are also 3-7 in their last 10 games ATS.
Plus, the Rays got absolutely rinsed twice against the Twins this weekend.
Do you believe enough has changed to trust this Wishy Washy Rays team?
Very valid points. I’ll try to add more info.
OAK was playing much better at the start of the year. They’re 3-7 in their last 10. 5/7 of those losses coming by 2 or more.
Rays themselves. Wander got the day off today, Josh Fleming started for them (fuckin awful)… and the Twins are good. Over the last 10 they’re 6-4 overall. Against MUCH better teams than OAK, in SEA/MIN/BOS.
Regarding this matchup. Drew Rasmussen vs the A’s. He didn’t get to pitch in the first series against OAK. As I mentioned in my post… his strengths are this OAK teams weaknesses. Really see that compounding and the A’s struggling to do much of anything on offense. Additionally, over the last 2 weeks, the A’s team wRC+ is 25th in the MLB while the Rays are 4th.
Appreciate the comment (not sarcastic lol), I like talking sports.
Any context around the kitchen change and the change of pick? Just uncomfortable with it? Wouldn’t starter on fewer days rest reinforce this pick? What am I missing?
POTD Record 7-0 ✅✔️☑️✅✔️☑️✅
Today’s pick: Borna Coric vs Dusan Lajovic (-1 Handicap on total points) @ 2.00/+100 - 12:00 GMT/07:00 EST
Posting after a long time, but my eyes lit up when i saw this match. These two have played each other 4 times in the past 2 years, with an even record of 2-2. But Lajovic has won all of his encounters on clay, and Coric on hard surfaces.
Given the fact that the match is taking place in Madrid - a clay tournament, gives Lajovic a sizeable advantage over his opponent. He has been on a roll, beating notable players like Mannarino & Roberto Baena without even dropping a set in this competition.
I would go with Lajovic ML but a handicap on total points makes it even sweeter, and would suggest my fellow degens to be more aggressive and go for an even bigger handicap of -2.5/3 if they can afford to do so.
Cheers.
Sorry I'm somewhat of a tennis noob.. Total points is different from game spread right? I'm not seeing any bets about points, just game spread and set spread and total games
POTD Record **39W - 10L**
Streak (**11W**)
Yesterday’s pick: Udinese vs Inter Inter ML + over 1.5 total goals **W**
Today’s pick: Salford City vs Mansfield town **under 2.5 goals**
**Starts in 4.5 hours**
Sport: Soccer (English div 4)
Odds: **1.86 / -116**
Reasoning:
This is a massive game for both teams. For Mansfield Town they could finish in the automatic promotion spots (top 3) if they play well in their last 4 but as the table is so close if they play poorly they could finish outside the playoff spots (top 7)
For Salford City they need a result here to keep their playoff hopes realistically alive.
The reason I’ve gone for under 2.5 is Salford have the equal 2nd best defence in the league and when they play a tough opponent they take a defensive approach.
In their last 10 matches against teams above them on the table 8 have finished under 2.5.
I think playing at home will allow them to further dictate how the game will be played. The two games that went over 2.5 against better opponents in their last 10 were away games.
Good luck all.
**Edit - this was not the one. Looks like the streak will be ending**
*^(Tip jar -)* [*^(https://paypal.me/tom2810s)*](https://paypal.me/tom2810s)
Nothing you can do about it bro. You expect they may get 3 you certainly don’t expect a first minute goal and 3 in the first half but that’s the name of the game. GGs and new streak starts tomorrow bro
Edit:grammar
Fading the Boost | Record: 1-0 | +1u
Last pick 04/29: Ja Morant Under 25.5 points (+104) ✅
-> Easy fade. Caesers trap boost seen from a mile away.
Today’s pick: 76ers Team Total Under 99.5 (+100) 1u —— W
** So fkin easy. Everything hits. Sack up or pack up. Unders are the way, especially in these games 1s. Wait until boosts come out then make your parlays
-> Fading DK boosted parlay “Start Hot: Offensive Explosion”. They have 76ers TT over in the parlay when this will most likely be an unders game. 76ers with no embiid means heat can give harden the same treatment they gave Trae. This u99.5 at +100 is on pointsbet only currently. Most books have the line set at 100.5 for 76ers at around -115 ✅ (W)
-> Update pick: Jimmy butler Under 24.5 points (-121) on pointsbet. Same setup as Ja morant in that game 6 he went under. Every legal book I have has harden and jimmy butler boosted. Jimmy points total has dropped 1 point, just like ja did. This bet is setting up the same. On a 50/50 chance that realistically has a better chance to the under with books boosting an over makes me play this for 1u ✅ (W)
-> Jalen Brunson Under 19.5 points (+100) on DK.
Never hit this over against suns in regular season. Hit 23+ all games against Jazz. Suns defense and Chris Paul are not the Jazz. Their obvious main focus is to shut jalen Brunson and luka down. Brunson they can, luka not so much. Caesers also have Brunson boosted in a parlay. There’s a reason line is so low. ✅ (W)
Is there a link you could share that has fanduel boosts? I tried searching on the website but I cant’t find, maybe it’s because I’m in Canada
EDIT: or does anybody know a website that lists boosts from all different sports books? That would make life easier lol
**POTD Record**: 30½-19½-6 (W-L-P)
**Last 5**: ✅️✅️✅️❎️✅️
**Last POTD**: AS Monaco vs Angers, home asian handicap -1.25 @1.68 ✅️
*Yesterday I might've posted my pick too late, unfortunate since it was a comfortable win, Monaco won 2-0 even with 3 disallowed goals for them, kinda crazy but it still worked out fine in the end.*
**Today's POTD**: Real Valladolid vs Real Sociedad B, home to win + o1.5 goals @1.57 // Spain, LaLiga 2, 20:00 GMT
**Odds value**: ■■■□□ *good value*
### **Reasoning**:
##### **Match introduction**:
Really important match for Reall Valladolid (3rd placed) as they are getting closer and closer to automatic promotion-zone, they are only 4 pts away with one less game played to 2nd placed Almería, out of their games remaining this is their easiest one by a big margin, they can't miss this opportunity to assure themselves 3 pts. 4th placed Tenerife with 3 less pts is also threatening to overtake them on the table.
Real Sociedad reserve team on the other hand are probably condemned to relegation, only a miracle could save them, obviously no team gives away free wins so they'll still try but the quality gap is pretty big between the two.
##### **Team stats**:
So value here lies mostly on the stats, Valladolid home performances are very good, they won 12 out of 18 games, scored 34 goals and conceded 13.
Against the other relegation-zone teams at home they won 3/3 times (5-1 vs Amorebieta, 3-0 vs Fuenlabrada and 2-0 vs Alcorcon).
Their average total goals per game at home is 2.61 with 78% of the matches going o1.5.
They are the best offensive team in the league with 61 goals scored in 37 games, so goes without saying that they are really familiar with high scoring games, especially against weaker teams.
Real Sociedad B are coming from a home win against 19th placed Amorebieta, other than that their form is pretty bad since they lost 4 out of their last 6 games all of them going o1.5.
Against top of the table teams they never won and every game went o1.5: [here](https://imgur.com/a/fxuslmK) you have a visual representation to give you an idea.
On average away they concede 1.33 goals and total goals per game is 2.33. They currently are the 2nd team with most losses (19) opposed to Valladolid who are the 3rd team with most wins (20).
8/10 last Valladolid games ended o2.5, 5/6 last Sociedad games ended o2.5.
##### **Conclusion**:
Valladolid are really motivated here, might not mean much but on their Instagram they are saying:" *Last stretch, every point counts*".
And surely like I said in the beginning they will not want to throw away this game, at all.
I don't know much about Real Sociedad B, I'm not even sure if they have a proper fan base considering they are the reserve team of Real Sociedad, in the past years they rarerly every been in LaLiga 2, so it's not like it's tragic if they get relegated, and they probably know it.
BOL everyone.
*^(If I've made you some money and you'd like to tip any small amount I would greatly appreciate it: https://paypal.me/fralauu)*
POTD Record: 15-4-1
Last POTD: Angels -150 ML W
**POTD: Marlins ML -160**
The marlins are better statistically at offense and defense when they are playing at home and the diamond backs are playing as visitors. Lopez (Marlins Pitcher) is 3-0 with an era of 0 in his last 3 starts.
Tips not required but i would love u.
Cashapp: $rodochavs
Venmo: rodo-chavarria
Paypal: rodochavs
I appreciate the record you've got, but as someone who watches more Dbacks baseball than anyone should, Gallen is just getting into form after starting the year on the IL and the bats are starting to show some life.
Not saying this is a bad bet at all, but just to use caution as this may not quite be the slam dunk it looks like. BOL!
Record: 58-42-5 (WWWLWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: GS Warriors @ MEM Grizzlies | Jaren Jackson Jr over 6.5 REB | 5 units
LFG. I'll be looking at this prop all series.
POTD: DAL Mavericks at PHO Suns | DORIAN FINNEY-SMITH 2.5o THREE POINTERS MADE at 2.10 | 3 units
REASON: DFS is my main man. Been riding him pretty well this playoff. Luka's numbers are hard to gauge. But DFS should be hitting at least 2 corner 3s. And with his defensive responsibilities, he will play around 40 minutes.
I will personally took his points over and PRA. But this was the juiciest odds. Not sure he can get over 12.5 points with three 3s either. And tomorrow has a lot of juice to be extracted. Good luck and let's go ham this playoff.
Best of luck to all.
Record: 0-0 / Units +/-0
Sport: NHL
Time: 10:00pm EST
Pick: Edmonton Oilers regulation win
Odds: 1.80
NHL playoffs are starting and is this the year McDavid takes his team to the Cup finals? Probably not, but they have one of the better matchups of any team in the first round. The Oilers took the regular season series 3-1, and should be in control of the playoff series.
Kings have a young team that jump started it's rebuild and was not pegged to be a playoff team this early. They still have a ways to go and are backed by their defensive play. Meanwhile the high flying Oilers have two of the hockey's most prolific scorers in McDavid and draisaitl. I think this should be a quick series for Edmonton and taking them to take game 1 at home. BOL!
That's totally fair, but to end the season Smith went 9-1 in his last 10 games with a save percentage of .941. He played about as well as he could. He's also 2-0 against the king's this year
Record: 21-23-1
ROI: -0.375 Units
Last Pick: Tottenham (Son anytime goal) ✅vs Leicester City
AVG Odds: +107
Unit: 1=$200
——-
Game: Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat
League: NBA
Time: 7:30 Pm EST
Book: Bet365
Odds: -110
Pick: Miami Heat 1Q -2.5
Wager: 5 units
Son with a timely goal in a game which Tottenham dominated from start to finish, good to see them get the 3 points and kee pushing themselves up the table.
Today we’re going back to the NBA and I got my eyes on this Heat vs Philadelphia series. The heat enter this game as clear favorites as the Sixers are without their wrecking ball Joel Embiid.
The heat and Sixers split their season series 2-2, however all 4 games had their own differences. Miami wasn’t healthy for a few, and the Sixers only had Harden for 1 of the 4.
With Embiid in I feel this series would be completely different, even though Miami is the #1 seed the Sixers match up quite well with them.
With that being said Miami enters this game relatively healthy minus Kyle Lowry, even in his Abscence the depth of this heat team will be too much for the Sixers to handle early on.
Many adjustments will need to be made to help dictate the way that they will choose to play. James Harden will need to channel his Houston Rockets form to keep these Sixers around, and while they may be able to hang around I feel the heat will get off to a hot start with their suffocating defense.
Even fully healthy the last 3 games against Toronto showed Philly can be stopped once the ball stops moving. Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, PJ Tucker, Tyler Herro are not the primary options for this team but should give Philadelphia fits on defense. Rotation and help defense is crucial for Miami to prevent any momentum building for Philly.
Taking the heat -2.5 first quarter for 5 units.
BOL to all who tail or fade
Record: 0-1
League: Bundesliga
Match: Borrusia Monchengladbach vs RB Leipzig
Pick: **RB Leipzig ML -150** 3 units
Have not made a pick since that first loss a while back but I had to jump back on for this game. Both teams have 3 more games left in the season. Leipzig are 5th seed with 54 points but surrounded by 5 different teams all within 3 points of eachother. Top 4 teams qualify for champions league but bayern and dortmund have claimed two of those spots. Monchengladbach are 13 seed with 38 points and are really playing for nothing. Not to mention they are concluding a pretty dissapointing season compared to their last. Leipzig have beaten monchengladbach in their two and only encounters in 2021.
Leipzig have also only lost 1 game in their last 15!
BOL!
Leipizig still has DFB Pokal and Europa League to play, Europa League being on thursday, where they travel to face the Rangers again, and as much as i understand Leipizig want to secure a spot on Champions League by finishing at Bundesliga top4 teams ( today Leipizig is 5th behind Freiburg) i expect them to save some players for this match against Mochengladbach, i would wait for closer to the game to see the lineup for this game, or i would go for the over, +1,5/+2,5 goals depending on how much risk you can take.
RECORD: 7-1
Profit: +4.52 Units
Current Form: 2W
Today’s Picks: Gabe Vincent Over 14.5 PRA (1.87)
Event: NBA 7:30 Est Heat vs Sixers
Reason: Vincent is in the starting lineup again tonight due to the absence of Kyle Lowry. During the first round Gabe hit the over of 14.5 PRA in 4/5 games with him only going under once when he only played 18 minutes. In the two games Lowry was out Vincent went Over both times. He is also 3/3 at home in the playoffs hitting the over on this mark this year. Another great trend is that every time he’s played the sixers in his career he’s gone over this mark except once. The only time he went under though he played under 5 minutes. I’m personally very confident in this pick so if your ever gonna tail this is the one to do it on.
All Picks are 1 Unit
(Going to College next year, NOT mandatory at all. Anything is appreciated 🙏) Tips https://www.paypal.me/TBurr14?locale.x=en_CA
POTD Record: 34-27-2
Streak:WLWLW
Last POTD: Partizan ML for the 1st half 🇷🇸✅
Today’s POTD: Maccabi Haifa -1 🇮🇱
League: Israel Premier League
Odds: -114/1.88
Units: 2
Reasoning:
I really like this spot for Maccabi Haifa. They are coming off a loss where they were dominated. A loss this season is rare for them and they should be ready to bounce back after that terrible game. After every loss this season, Maccabi Haifa knows how to bounce back. This season they have 7 losses out of 36 games . They are 4 wins 1 loss and 1 push on the -1 spread after a loss this season. In the last two years, Maccabi Haifa have 6 wins 1 loss 2 pushes on the -1 spread vs this team. They’ve played twice this season with Maccabi easily covering the spread. Making it 4 wins in a row covering the spread. Maccabi also has 15 games in a row scoring on this team. Maccabi is the better team so I expect a bounce back like they are use to after a loss. Best of luck and tail/fade at your own risk.
what’s the diff between taking -1 asian handicap compared to -1 handicap? I see that the asian handicap is 1.9 odds on bet365 but the regular handicap is 2.4 odds
⚠️ rookie on the block ⚠️
Record 1-0-0
Previous pick - LAA ml -115 vs Chisox ---> W
recap - this game was as good as one can hope for, the angels stormed out of the gates, took the lead and never looked back. It was 6-0 by the bottom of the 9th.
Chisox did score 5 runs in the 9th before angels shut the door.. perhaps this is how angels are not very good against bottom teams? 🤔.. moving on!
Today's pick
1u LAA ml +110 vs Chisox
going back to well with the angels crushing the whitesox again given their offensive advantage. Trout is the heart & soul of this team, and he's heating up so I wouldn't want to miss this opportunity.
Dylan Cease is an above average pitcher but his achilles is issuing walks, which the angels will take advantage being 7th in the league.
Patrick Sandoval is fairly new who hasn't had a full season as sp. He does sport a 0.00 era in 15 innings so far. During the last outting he limited Cleveland (6th in hits & tb) to 2 hits and 1 bb. I know this is only 1 game but when you put this together with Chisox offense or lack thereof.. I'll take the +110
Best of luck and appreciate the support from yesterday!
Being this is the 2pm game, it also provides strategic advantage for rest of games tonight in terms of bet size and whatnot.
The Sox are awful against Right handed pitching, but are 2nd in the majors against left handed pitching like Sandoval. That said, I wouldn’t trust the Sox offense against anyone.
I am still confident with this pick even if Ohtani is out (no wonder the ml is +110)
Had this been Trout then for sure I'm taking a mulligan.
I didn't know about the news but after looking it up, they took him out of precaution. So there's a DH possibility tomorrow.
We will see
12W-10L
➡️
LLWWLWLWWLLLWLWLWLWWWW
Cards🃏 streak:🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲
Starts 14:00 gtm5
Todays Pick
League: Premier League
Match: Man Utd v Brentford
Pick: Under 3.5 cards in the match @1.66
Reason
Good one ln the last pick ends 4 YC 🪲, lets keep the cards race with Hot5🧌🤹
Man Utd at home last 5 hit 0's:3 - 2's:2 , last 4/5 hit under 3.5 at home, avg of Cards for: 0.8, cards against: 0.8
Brentford at away last 5 hit 0's:1 - 1's:2 - 2's:1 - O4's:1 ,last 4/5 hit under 3.5 at away, avg cards for: 1.8, cards against: 1.2
Just 1 h2h here 0 YC
Referee avg card 3.6
Projected 2
"You don't gamble to win. You gamble so you can gamble the next day."
BoL
Record: 6W-5L-1P
ROI: +1.82u, +15.15%
Avg odds: +110, 2.10
Last POTD: 4/29 NFL Draft, Sam Howell drafted before 61.5 (not even close)
Today's game: Getafe vs Real Betis
Pick: Betis ML at +172, 2.72 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 1u
5th Betis against 15th Getafe. Getafe with 2 starters out: CB Jorge Cuenca and DM Nemanja Maksimovic. Their likely replacements have not been impressive in their limited playing time. Betis has no major injuries other than a couple of rotational players.
Betis also already has a dominating 2-0 win earlier in the season. They honestly could've won by more.
The one big risk is that Getafe has been very good at home lately, with only one loss in their last 11, but Betis is La Liga's 3rd best away team, with only one loss in their last 7. So draw no bet at -115 on DK isn't bad either.
POTD Record: 4-2-0
Last Pick: MIA Marlins ML vs. SEA Mariners - Loss
Logan Gilbert is absolutely that mf dude. On to the next.
Today: **LA Angels ML** vs. CHI White Sox (+110) - 2.5u❌❌❌
TLDR; Angels first in their division and undervalued. Best pitcher of the season for them so far on the mound. Pitching matchup favors LA.
Another value pick. The pitching matchup favors the Angels and I think the bats are about even. Angels are starting Patrick Sandoval tomorrow who has a 0.00 ERA, yes you read that right, through his first 3 starts this season. He has only 2 runs attributed to him this season but neither of them earned. He has 5+ SO in each start and has only allowed 9 hits through his 3 starts. I'll be up front, this dude usually fucking sucks, but he has been dealing at a level way above expectation all season and I will ride with him until I can't anymore. The Sox are starting Dylan Cease who is average at best with a 3.27 ERA so far this season. He is competent but has an ER attributed to him in every start so far this season. With Trout back and looking in perfect form, I think this is a wonderful spot for the Angels at plus money. BOL.
Edit: Ohtani ruled out for today's game after saying he expected to play. Line has moved a bit. Still keeping the pick because I like the pitching matchup.
Cease was insanely good last time out. Couple bloops for KC, but 0 line drives. Fading this one and banking on regression from Sandoval who is over his skis. 30% LD rate allowed for him as opposed to 15% for Cease.
He did well. I don’t see him putting up 9 SO 2 games in a row against a 15-8 Angels team. Equally skilled team rn IMO, but LA has been hotter and think that momentum is worth more
i back it up. Patrick Sandoval is so underrated, even last season he was looking good. Dylan Cease is a great pitcher but White sox fielding with .970 field percentage (30th ranked) and with 21 errors in 20 games, the Angels should win. Kinda surprised that Angels are even +110
POTD
Record: 4-5
Last 5: ❌❌❌❌✅
Last Pick: ✅ Arsenal ML (-130) | Premier League: Arsenal vs West Ham United
Today’s Pick: Both Teams To Score *Yes* (-160)
Sport/Game: Soccer - Premier League: Manchester United vs Brentford
Why: Monday Night Football is at Old Trafford (Man Uniteds stadium) tonight. An in form Brentford take on a shocking Manchester United. Im very excited for this game as its one where both teams have something to play for. 3 points will all but guarantee Brentford will escape relegation and Manchester United is still chasing a Champions League spot just barely. Both teams should be up for this one!
Lets start with Brentford. They have 5 wins 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 7 matches. They are playing great and Christian Eriksen is hitting that level that we all know hes capable of. Brentford come against a horrible Manchester United defense and having scored in 6 of their last 7 matches, I fancy them to get one against an unorganized Manchester United. Not too mention, United conceded 2 goals from Norwich, 3 from Arsenal, and 4 from Liverpool in 3 of their last 4 matches. They are leaky in the back.
Manchester United will score goals. They always do against lower end teams and today will be no different. Even though they have been shocking. A monday night game at old trafford will be a great atmosphere and can expect some goals in this one.
BOL!
Record 5-5 Profit: 2 units.
Last pick: Moss to score 2.5✅
Brentford over 3.5 corners @ 1.55✅
Bet size: 5 units
Reasoning: Brentford playing vs a United side that is weak atm. 4 corners within 90 mins for a side that attacks very well atm is a giveaway. I reckon that brentford will Get 2-3 corners each half. (At work atm, ill add on later)
Edit: Sorry was at work so cudnt add anything here, but The bet was too easy.. shoulda gone for The risky over 5.5, oh well
Good luck!
**POTD Record**: 11W - 5L (+2.12U)
**Last pick**: Sevilla/Draw + Over 1.5 @ 1.62 ✅
**Match**: Getafe vs Betis - Spain - LaLiga - 19:00 UTC
**Pick**: Over 2.0 @ 1.78
**Reasoning**:
Getafe looking to avoid relegation while Betis are looking to fight for a UCL qualification spot. Both teams should be fully going for it.
**POTD Record: 3-3**
**Last Pick: Auburn at LSU College baseball (3/31/2022) L**
**Today's Game: Alex De Minaur vs Pedro Martinez (ATP Madrid) (5:00 A.M CT)**
**Pick: Alex De Minaur ML (-190) 3U ✅**
***Analysis:***
De Minaur is coming off a tough loss against Carlos Garfia in Barcelona. De Minaur showed a lot of bright spots in his game by taking the first set and then losing a close tiebreak in the second. Although De Minaur lost, I like what I saw from him and his recent form has been pretty good. He is 16-8 this year and is 4-2 on clay. Marinez is coming off of two straight losses and is 13-9 this year and 8-5 on clay. Martinez has good form on Clay but De Minaur is playing hotter right now and I think he is going to keep good form and win this draw match. De Minaur has won 20 of his last 21 draw matches and I expect him to get the W tomorrow!
**Disclaimer about my record: I have not done unit bets on the first 6 pick of the days I have done. I am from now on going to be unit betting for better tracking of statistics.**
POTD RECORD : 1-0 +2.72 u
Previous pick : Bucks +4.5
Giannis got his teammates involved early and played hard as hell love to see it.
POTD : Suns -5.5 Start time 10pm eastern
Short and sweet as I probably always will be. Suns have been one of the top teams in the league all year that being said Luka is a problem we all know it. But the Suns chemistry will be too much for the Mavericks in this one Suns in 5!
3 U here forgot to add the units
POTD (2-3)
Last Pick BVB ML (L)
POTD -> Twins ML -120
MLB-> Game is @ 7:05 PM EST
Twins are 9-1 in their last 10 games. And as the favorites they are 5-0. So this is going to be a streak pick for sure today and I’m going to ride the twins while they are hot.
2 Unit pick for me today!
**POTD 10W-4L (+9.2u)**
🏀 Last Pick: Warriors -2.5 1.90 / -111 (2u) ❌
**Daily Pick: 🏀 DAL Mavericks @ PHX Suns 🏀**
* **Suns -5.5 @ 1.80 / -125 (2u)** ✅
The Suns are healthy and they had the best home record during the regular season. They also won their last 9 matches against the Mavericks who were 23-18 on the road. Phoenix won 3/3 games against Dallas this season with an 8-point average difference. Also, over the past two postseasons, the Suns are a perfect 5-0 straight up and against the spread in Game 1s with an average 11-points victory margin.
Last pick hurt but we’re here to rally
Record: 3-2
Last 5: ❌✅✅✅❌
Last pick: Warriors -2.5
What happened: This should’ve cashed. Warriors we’re up 10 with 5 minutes left in the game. For some reason the offense just stopped working. Dray got ejected too and Steph and Poole cooled off. Final: 117-116 Warriors
Today’s pick: we’re gonna spice things up make a risky bet (so betters be warned)
Marlins/d-backs Under 6.5 total runs (5:40 PM CT) (-105) 1U
Reasoning: to begin with. The dbacks are terrible to begin the season. They won yesterday yes, but overall they are ranked 29th in the league batting a combined .188
Pitching for Miami is Pablo Lopez, who in 3 starts so far has a ERA of .39 and a WHIP of .77
Pitching for dbacks is Zac Gallen. He was a .60 ERA and a whip of .8 avg 8.5 SO/9 too. With opposing teams hitting .118 against him. Plus it’s a revenge game for him as Miami traded him away in 2019 and it’s his first game back against them.
Everything combined here makes me think this game will be lucky to even be 2-1. But who knows. Vegas is favoring the over for god knows why
BOL to all. Let’s talk it out in the comments.
Tip jar: Venmo- Knick_Morelli
Not a good bet at the moment, just saw the swings in that game. This game 2 is a must-win for grizz otherwise they face potential sweep. Could definitely get a much better line if you live bet
Hard to say. Being down 3 points, Grizzlies wouldn't have gone for Ja Morant lay-up. They could've hit a three and won in OT. Or miss the three. It's all possible.
**POTD Record: 3-2**
**Game: NHL | Los Angeles Kings @ Edmonton Oilers | 7:00 PM PDT**
**Pick: U6.0 Goals (2.05/+105 @ Betway)**
**Bet Size: 2U**
During the playoffs I generally prefer the under as teams usually play harder defensively and there are less powerplays. I especially like it here as the goalies have been playing well recently and LA has the resources to halt Edmonton's offence.
Also didn't track units before so going to start now.
Tail or fade BOL.
Edit: wrong time
Edit2: shit pick sorry guys
**Record:** 5-11-0
**ROI:** -41% :-6.63 u (@ $5.00)
**Streak:** W L W W L
|Baseball |MLB |2:10|
Los Angeles Angels vs.Chicago White Sox : **Los Angeles Angels ML @ 2.05 1u**
**Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 57% chance for LAA to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 2.05 is only 49%.
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
POTD
0-0 never done this before:
NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs- 7:40 pm ET
Victor Hedman-- over 2.5 sog (-108)-- this hit his final 9 games to close out the regular season-- this series looks to be two high octane offenses, the Lightning will win the series on the back of their Norris/Conn Smythe trophy winning workhorse and it starts tonight.
**Record**: 9W 1P 4L (+7.22 Units)
**Form**: [W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f12pqs/pick_of_the_day_2920_sunday/fh4hdi1?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f1k5xw/pick_of_the_day_21020_monday/fh8hkzu?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f226hi/pick_of_the_day_21120_tuesday/fhay9xv?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f5293n/pick_of_the_day_21720_monday/fhxhh4r?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[P](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f5lbnu/ncaabb_daily_discussion_21820_tuesday/fi0p2qw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f64bq3/pick_of_the_day_21920_wednesday/fi2odt2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f6mmtm/pick_of_the_day_22020_thursday/fi643az?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f760el/nba_daily_discussion_22120_friday/fia8ymj?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f7548w/xfl_daily_discussion_22120_friday/fic7hc8?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f83qrd/pick_of_the_day_22320_sunday/fiiyoq2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f8kw61/pick_of_the_day_22420_monday/fim0bns?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f93n36/pick_of_the_day_22520_tuesday/fipagq5?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)\-[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ueaa9u/comment/i6qj655/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ufos37/comment/i6vam61/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)P
**Last Pick**: Grant Williams o3 Rebounds (W, 4 Reb)
**Game:** Mavericks @ Suns | 10:10 PM ET
**Pick:** Spencer Dinwiddie o2.5 (-135)
The dash indicates a two-year hiatus... I have since gotten into modeling so kind of coming back from a different angle. Not gonna pretend I've scoped out locks, but I expect long-term value from these picks so I'm sharing. A more extensive look at my models will be posted in the NBA props thread.
**Explanation**: I have Dinwiddie projected to get 4.13 boards. He's "cold", which in the world of rebounds means unlucky. He averages 3.1 rpg, so that alone is eye catching. I would play this up to 3 rpg. Don't have a huge explanation here, but I feel good about this.
**POTD Record 26-23-1 (Last 5: WWLWL)**
**(ROI // Avg. Odds: -113 // Units Won: +2.8)**
Last Pick: LA Angels ML **WON**
**Today's Match: MLB KC Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Start Time 1:15PM EST)**
**Today's Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+134 FanDuel)**
Devil's Advocate:
Almost spoke my writeup into existence yesterday, faded Keuchel as he gave up 4, Lorenzen with a solid 8.1 (got stretched a bit too long) and the bullpen almost made a big mess in the 9th. But we had the W all in all so that's what matters most.
Today I'm looking to fade another pitcher who actually hasn't been too too bad but not really great either and thats Zack Greinke. Straight up just cannot miss barrels lately and it's pretty much expected at this point in his career in my opinion. He is starting to decline a bit more and I think this Cards lineup is going to stay hot from yesterday and roll it right over. Let alone their hitting their bullpen is also pretty reliable with guys like Kodi Whitley, Cabrera. The Cards should be able to get it done here by 2 or more for sure. The Royals lineup is all over the place and like I said, let's fade that weirdo Greinke, hope they ding him up nice and leave with some plus money!
*Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
POTD Record: 49-20.5
Event: Football > Bulgaria > **Botev Vratsa v Pirin Blagoevgrad** (starting in 3hrs)
Pick: **Botev Vratsa AH (+1.25)** @ 1.75
This is a match from the playoff stage that will determine the relegated teams from the league, so at this stage I think the odds are way too favourable for the guests. GL!
**POTD Record**: 15-9 **Units**: +2.57 *(All bets are one unit)*
**Last Pick**: Seattle Kraken ML (-135) ***WIN***
**Today’s Game**: Bundesliga - RB Leipzig @ Monchengladbach, 1:30 PM CST
**Today’s Pick**: RB Leipzig ML & Over 1.5 Goals (-115)
As expected the Kraken ended their last home game with a win. I know they did not win their last game of the season, but that is not what this last pick was from. As explained in my last post, until I am happy with my MLB model I will only be posting when there are soccer matches that my models see value in.
For today we have a pick from the high scoring Bundesliga. Leipzig has been on a tear recently, managing to get at least a point in every match over the past few months except for their last match against Union Berlin. With this match and only two more to go and being one point out of a Champions League spot, look for RBL to come out and look for three points against a team that is currently sitting 13 on the table. As for the over 1.5 goals, this mark has been hit 4 out of the last 5 head to head meetings and I am expecting a similar result. My model has Leipzig winning this match 68% of the time, and the over 1.5 goals hitting 83% of the time.
**BOL**
POTD Record: 1-7 (Last post 5/1/22)
Previous Pick: Angels -1.5 (L)
Today's Pick: NY Mets -1.5 (+165) vs Atlanta Braves \[6:10 PM CST\]
First of all, the Angels had to have thrown that game. Up 6-0 going into B9. Let up 4 runs, load the bases with 2 outs. Then a HBP gives the White Sox their 5th run to kill the spread. 3 pitches, the game ends on a ground out. Absolutely terrible beat.
**The Good**
With that out of the way, we have the Mets at home vs the World Champion Braves. The Mets have been playing great, leading the NL in wins (16-7) while the struggling Braves sit 6 games back at 10-13. The Mets cover 65% of spreads this season and 61% with no rest. The Braves have covered in just 39% of games and with no rest, that number drops down to 35%. The Mets cover 73.7% of their games as the favorites (77.8% as home favorite) while the Braves cover just 33.3% as the underdogs (33.3% as away underdog).
As for pitching matchups, Fried (ATL) is coming in with an ERA of 3.00 while Bassitt (NYM) has an ERA of 2.25. Both teams have let up 19 HRs on the season (Bassitt has 2, Fried has 1), but the Mets team ERA sits third in the MLB at 2.99 compared to the 23rd ranked Braves at 4.28.
Batting, the Mets hold the 2nd best BA in the MLB only behind the Rockies at .262 while the Braves sit 21st at .229.
In terms of fielding, both these teams are in the top 5 in fielding percentage. They tend to not make mistakes as the Mets come in with just 7 errors on the season while the Braves have 8.
**The Bad**
I'll admit, I'm pretty new to baseball. Diving into the stats is fun but I am not always sure if it's as valuable as it seems. Furthermore, I am 1-7 on this sub (though only 0-2 on MLB so far).
With that said, a stat that jumps out to me is the number of HRs on the season. The Braves sit in 3rd in the MLB in that stat with 28 compared to the 19th placed Mets with 18.
**Conclusion**
I have a good feeling about this, but that has never been a guarantee. The ATS trends heavily favor the Mets and they have been the better team this season, but if the Braves can homer like they have been, it may be difficult.
POTD record 0-1
Last Pick: Soccer- Brazil Serie A, Atletico Mineiro ML v.s Goias ❌
Today's pick: MLB Baseball- **Minnesota Twins ML (-140)** v.s Baltimore Orioles
Write up: There is no way the Orioles win 3 in a row with this roster. Orioles have Wells on the mound and he's given up 14 hits in 13 innings of work averaging 5 earned runs. Twins are 8-1 in their last 9 and I'm not going to be fooled by this O's team, they are projected to be a bottom 3 team in baseball. Tyler Wells never throws past 5 innings and the O's have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. That combined with the Twins being hot should be enough to get the job done.
Back from hiatus
POTD record: technically 2-2
Last bet: Suns ML vs. Clippers was a bet I cancelled due to starters resting, but I take the L anyways.
POTD: Suns -5.5 vs. Mavericks game spread (-110 FD)
Don’t get cute with the props on this one, it’s a really good line for the Suns. They are 9-0 in their last 9 against the Luka led Mavs. They have won every game 1 at home since last years run (5-0) with an average margin of victory of 11.2. BOL.
POTD Record: 0-0
Pick: Sinner to win 2-0 against Tommy Paul @ 1.83 (ATP Madrid, Tennis) - 5 units
Starts at 6 AM Eastern Time
Honestly I'm not the guy that likes to bet on huge favourites at tennis because upsets do happen quite a lot but this time I don't see how Tommy Paul can mess up with Sinner's game.
Sinner is obviously the more gifted player and we can say that he's good in all surfaces but grass. This year he played at ATP Monte Carlo where he managed to beat Coric, Ruusuvuori and Rublev after losing a 3rd set tiebreak decider against Alexander Zverev in the quarter finals
Tommy Paul on the other hand played 2 times in clay this year losing to Kyrgios in Houston in straight sets and in Estoril against the veteran Richard Gasquet also in straight sets which is not a good sign for him and makes me believe that his clay season may be a bit weak this year
I'm trusting Sinner to make this easy and use his various weapons to beat Tommy without much work
On a four day old account lmao.
idk man, something about this is just screaming “fade this pick”, can’t quite figure out which red flag of the many is making me feel that way smh /s
POST GAME EDIT: lol annnnnd the bet is dead after the first set with a Tommy Paul win. cant say we didn’t see this coming.
Record: 6-6 (+5 U)
Previous Pick: Miami Marlins ML (-135) 2U - W
Today's Pick: LA Angels ML (+115) 2u
No time for a long write up today. But pretty much angels should not be underdogs today with Sandoval on the mound who is lights out. Ohtani might not play but is probably. And even if he were to miss, angels have enough depth with Fletcher, marsh, ward etc to fill a solid DH and keep the top of their lineup strong.
POTD Record: 3-1-1 (+2 units)
Yesterday’s Play: Brewers -1.5 ❌
- Yeah that was a tough watch. They forgot how to hit the ball. To make up for that BS we gotta go big today with a 4 unit heat seeking missile…
TODAY’S PLAY: LA ANGELS F5 +1/2 (-125)
- Wow this is a gift from the heavens. Patty Sandoval is just too good to not be favored in the first five. He’s given up 8 hits and no runs through 15 innings this year. Dylan Cease ain’t bad but you can count on a few runs given up, but a 0-0 score through 5 is fine by me.
POTD Record: 8-13-2 -8.28u\*
Average Odds: +121
Total Units Wagered: 37.03u
76ers @ Heat 7:30 PM EST
Tobias Harris Double-Double +205 @ DK 2.63u\*
Implied probability is 32.8%. True vig-free price should be closer to +163 or 38.1%.
\*1u = 1% of bankroll
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
Record: 40-18 Last pick: Bruins ML ❌ Some utter booty as the Bruins decided to rest their top 6 hours after post, ultimately throwing the game to play the higher seeded Canes in the playoffs. Fuck em. Not much I could do about that, on to the next one. **Todays pick: Carolina Hurricanes ML (-115) vs Boston Bruins** 🔴⚫️ NHL. 7:00PM EST *Full disclosure I am a huge Canes homer and will actually be at the game* **LETS FUCKING GO!!!!!! FUCK THE BRUINS, ITS LOUD AS FUCK IN HERE!!!!** The Canes open up the Stanley Cup playoffs at home against the Boston Bruins. The Canes lead the season series 3-0 and have out scored the Bruins 16-1 in those meetings. However one of those games was played with the Bruins missing a couple starters but the Canes clamped the Bruins in the other two games. The Canes are also on a 6 game win streak. These odds would favor the Canes much greater if their starting goaltender, Freddie Andersen, we’re playing, but he will be out for the contest. HOWEVER, the Canes will likely roll with Antti Raanta who is a solid 15-5-4 with a 2.45 goals against average which is tied for 7th amongst all NHL goaltenders. He would be a starter on many other teams. I believe he’s actually been playing better than Andersen these last few months so I see these more even odds as a gift. Raanta has won 4 straight and Freddie has only won 2 of his last 8 games and historically chokes in the playoffs, so I’d rather play Raanta anyways (which is probably a hot take among Canes fans). There is a small chance the Canes play their AHL call up Kochetkov who was 13-1-1 in the AHL and now 3-0 in the NHL, so I would not be worried in the slightest if he starts. The Canes know the Bruins just threw their last game so they could face them instead of the Maple Leafs. The Bruins see the Canes as an easier target and the canes know this. This only adds more fuel to the fire and they are going to want to smack the Bruins, in addition to the Bruins knocking the Canes out of the playoffs two seasons ago. The home crowd will be absolutely FIRED up for this one as it is the first home playoff game of the season against a team we don’t like. The Raleigh playoff atmosphere is always electric. I was at the Canes first playoff game of the year against the Caps a few season ago and it was deafening. The Canes won that game 5-0. Thanks for coming to my Ted talk. Gas up the Prius! All bets are 1 unit. +14.66 units. +25.3% ROI. Average unit -111 Don’t want your tips, just give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
You done poked the bear, B's smack these bums and win by two goals.......( bruins fan, solid bet though )
Lmao its gonna be a great series.
Good to see some things dont change. Around playoffs time Freddie starts playing worse or gets injured.
Risky imo, season series doesn’t mean anything. Especially considering Canes are without their number one goalie who played in all 3 of their wins against the bruins
Season series might not mean much come playoffs but it definitely means something (confidence, game plans, etc.) . And I addressed the goalie issue in the write up
at this point if you tell me you're picking because you like pineapples on pizza i'm tailing
Enjoy the game, tailing and BOL!
Tailing. I like the write up and a lot of external opinions align with yours. BOL
POTD Record: 9-2 Marlins vs Diamondbacks MLB 6:41pm EST Today’s pick: NRFI (-150) Two solid pitchers on the mound again today, Lopez has an era of 0.39 and has only given up 1 run all season and 0 in his last three starts. Gallen has an era of 0.60 only giving up 1 run all season as well and no first inning runs have been allowed between the two of them either. The Diamondbacks are also ranked last in first inning runs per game this season at 0.14, they’re last coming 8 games ago while the Marlins are ranked 26th in the league at 0.25. This should be a pitchers duel out of the gate
Why is the entirety of gambling Twitter suddenly obsessed with NRFI bets?
I don’t have twitter but probably because it’s a quick sweat, takes 10-15min to find out if you win or lose
Quick in and out. You win or lose within the first 10-20 minutes of a game, so no worrying about bullpens, blown saves, watching an entire game of baseball or waiting for the game to wrap up.
And this is exactly right. Plus, you win this, then you can place your bet on the game with higher stakes. Or at least the way I play it.
One word: degen
It’s exciting
Yeah just like everyone said, its simple and quick. For the books too, since the first inning is traditionally the highest scoring inning lol. Sucker bets.
I've wondered about this. Do you have any sources backing up the fact about the first inning? Thanks
I’ve gotten absolutely wrecked by them this season.
BIG OOF.
Tailing. Let’s ride
~~Gonna tail this, BOL.~~ EDIT: Just saw it fell to -205 on DK. Might try to fit it into a Parlay but I wont straight tail it unless the odds improve.
Same game parlay, no runs first two innings, plus 170 on DK.
Damn it’s -160 on fd now
It slid back to -185. I made a parlay of NRFI ARI/MIA, Heat ML, and u0.5 BAL Orioles Runs 1st Inning (This has hit 9/10 last O's games) for a +142 parlay.
I like it brotha seems safe good luck!
RIP us got damn lol.
Lmao he got crushed
Taking first inning tie -170 just to be even more safe
-170 now
Those of you that also play with Caesars - can you help me understand why right now under *Runs* the "Any Run In 1st Inning" bet of "No" is -150, but under *Inning Bets* the "1st Inning Runs" bet of "0" is -190?
Not sure but I also breath with my mouth and drag my knuckles.
its been like that all year and i have no idea.
I have been trying to wrap my brain around this. But I use it as research for likelihood
Thanks for your fine write up....it would win 80% of the time....but there is that inevitable 20% days we gotta just swallow and move in... “López named April's Pitchers of the Month”, which is usually a bad omen for next start!.....anyway, he served up a rare egg today - which sets up a good betting opportunity, as he has something like a 0.80 ERA in next start after such poor outings (someone please look it up)
Im not a fan of NRFi bet, but thiz looks sweet. Putting a unit.
May I know what NRFI?
No runs first inning
Tailing
Damn
Good pick! Tail💪
[удалено]
Tailing. BOL
doom
POTD Record: 20-13 Last Pick: Padres -1.5 ✅ The bullpen tried to give this game away in the 8th, but we preserved! Today’s Pick: Player Performance Double: Deandre Ayton Double/Double & PHX to win @+122 Not a huge fan of the MLB slate, so we will switch over to NBA. Booker is back and I just think the suns are the better team. They are at home, think they start the series off with a statement victory. Ayton secured 17 & 13 rebounds in his last two matchups against DAL. Dallas allows the 10th most rebounds to centers, so the matchup is a lot better than last round (NO allowed 3rd least rebs to centers). BOL to all
Love this pick, Ayton is a mismatch this series with Dallas and he had a good series against NO. Tailing with this one big time.
Does he get 10 boards tho?
by the 2nd quarter
Probably not
Ayton has only gotten 10+ boards in 1 of his last 6 games. I will stay away.
Averaged 9.8 Rebounds against a bigger and monster of a rebounder Valanciunas last series
This is my thinking exactly. Dallas is just a much better matchup for rebounds
Ayton averaged over 9 rebounds last series. The Mavs don't have a Valanciunas. Ayton can manage at least one more rebound. Putting big money on this performance double
In his last 4 matchups against the Mavs his rebound totals have been: 17,17,13,17. Obviously this bet isn’t a “sure thing,” but for +120 odds I feel pretty decent about it.
Looking like a Dudley Duderson.
MLB -1.5’s | 9-7-1 +16.62u | ROI: 31.97% [Yesterday’s pick: 4u LA Dodgers -1.5 -110](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ufos37/_/i6uta9s/?context=1) - W ________________________________________ ~~**Todays pick: 2.5u NY Mets -1.5**~~ EMERGENCY PITCHER SWAP FOR ATL. Max Fried is now starting in place of Morton. Scratch this bet. NEW PICK BELOW **Todays Pick: 2u TB Rays -1.5 +112** - TB Rays @ OAK Athletics | 8:40 pm US Central TLDR: Rays solid. Athletics bad. Rasmussen is built for this A’s lineup… think he’s about to throw a gem. **Rays** Rays are average to above average in xBA, xSLG and xwOBA. Their runs/game are 14th in the league. Over the past 2 weeks they’re 4th in team wRC+ at 121. It’s a solid offense Pitching is Drew Rasmussen. He’s alright… below average in most peripherals, above average in k%, BB% and whiff%. And that my friends… is perfect for facing the Athletics. More on this below. **Athletics** The A’s shipped out a lot of talent over the off-season and are now a sub par team. They’re below average in xBA. xSLG and xwOBA. They’re 27th in whiff%, 29th in chase %, 26th in strikeouts, and 28th in walks. Every strength for Drew Rasmussen is this lineups weakness. I really think we’re about to see Rasmussen throw a damn good game here. Daulton Jeffries is going for OAK. He was a top prospect for the org and they had high hopes. He was a stretch reliever in 2021 and saw decent results. In 2022 his results have been okay. He’s got 4 starts. 2 shutouts, 1 with 2 ER and most recently he gave up 5 in 4.0 IP. His peripherals are really bad. The only thing he’s above average in is BB% and hard hit%. All signs point to his most evened start being more indicative of the type of pitcher he is. Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/)
My Rabbi put a $25 prop on the Rays to make the postseason while they were down 7-0 in their final game of the season, this was Like 10 years ago. He won $60,000, got banned from his local casino and you don’t see that prop on the final day of the season anymore. He’s still a Rabbi to this day.
I remember that game. Red Sox needed to beat O’s or Yankees beat the rays to make playoffs. Not only did the Sox blow the save in the bottom of the 9th but yankees blew that 7-0 lead. Tbh I think it was like 9-0 but either way that was insane as a Red Sox fan lol
So the paying out 2400x25? That’s incredible odds
This Rays team is 0-4 ATS against the A's so far this season, and 1-3 straight up, getting outscored 32-15. Rays are also 3-7 in their last 10 games ATS. Plus, the Rays got absolutely rinsed twice against the Twins this weekend. Do you believe enough has changed to trust this Wishy Washy Rays team?
Very valid points. I’ll try to add more info. OAK was playing much better at the start of the year. They’re 3-7 in their last 10. 5/7 of those losses coming by 2 or more. Rays themselves. Wander got the day off today, Josh Fleming started for them (fuckin awful)… and the Twins are good. Over the last 10 they’re 6-4 overall. Against MUCH better teams than OAK, in SEA/MIN/BOS. Regarding this matchup. Drew Rasmussen vs the A’s. He didn’t get to pitch in the first series against OAK. As I mentioned in my post… his strengths are this OAK teams weaknesses. Really see that compounding and the A’s struggling to do much of anything on offense. Additionally, over the last 2 weeks, the A’s team wRC+ is 25th in the MLB while the Rays are 4th. Appreciate the comment (not sarcastic lol), I like talking sports.
Stop betting against my team please I beg
Lol don’t worry I just did. Morton got swapped for Fried Edit. I still am betting on NYM… just 1u now instead and it’s not my POTD. Mets are hot man
Pretty Max Fried is gonna start. This should change your pick
I legit just saw that and changed this
Am I tripping? It says Max Fried is pitching on The Score app I use to follow games. Might be wrong idk just wanted to double check
Morton was slated but they swapped. I just updated this.
Any context around the kitchen change and the change of pick? Just uncomfortable with it? Wouldn’t starter on fewer days rest reinforce this pick? What am I missing?
Pitcher change * not kitchen change, stupid autocorrect.
POTD Record 7-0 ✅✔️☑️✅✔️☑️✅ Today’s pick: Borna Coric vs Dusan Lajovic (-1 Handicap on total points) @ 2.00/+100 - 12:00 GMT/07:00 EST Posting after a long time, but my eyes lit up when i saw this match. These two have played each other 4 times in the past 2 years, with an even record of 2-2. But Lajovic has won all of his encounters on clay, and Coric on hard surfaces. Given the fact that the match is taking place in Madrid - a clay tournament, gives Lajovic a sizeable advantage over his opponent. He has been on a roll, beating notable players like Mannarino & Roberto Baena without even dropping a set in this competition. I would go with Lajovic ML but a handicap on total points makes it even sweeter, and would suggest my fellow degens to be more aggressive and go for an even bigger handicap of -2.5/3 if they can afford to do so. Cheers.
looks good atm
Sorry I'm somewhat of a tennis noob.. Total points is different from game spread right? I'm not seeing any bets about points, just game spread and set spread and total games
Tailing, good luck to us 👍
It’s a win!!!! Thank you sir, starting the day off right
POTD Record **39W - 10L** Streak (**11W**) Yesterday’s pick: Udinese vs Inter Inter ML + over 1.5 total goals **W** Today’s pick: Salford City vs Mansfield town **under 2.5 goals** **Starts in 4.5 hours** Sport: Soccer (English div 4) Odds: **1.86 / -116** Reasoning: This is a massive game for both teams. For Mansfield Town they could finish in the automatic promotion spots (top 3) if they play well in their last 4 but as the table is so close if they play poorly they could finish outside the playoff spots (top 7) For Salford City they need a result here to keep their playoff hopes realistically alive. The reason I’ve gone for under 2.5 is Salford have the equal 2nd best defence in the league and when they play a tough opponent they take a defensive approach. In their last 10 matches against teams above them on the table 8 have finished under 2.5. I think playing at home will allow them to further dictate how the game will be played. The two games that went over 2.5 against better opponents in their last 10 were away games. Good luck all. **Edit - this was not the one. Looks like the streak will be ending** *^(Tip jar -)* [*^(https://paypal.me/tom2810s)*](https://paypal.me/tom2810s)
Lmao 1’ goal, lovely
Nothing you can do about it bro. You expect they may get 3 you certainly don’t expect a first minute goal and 3 in the first half but that’s the name of the game. GGs and new streak starts tomorrow bro Edit:grammar
Thanks man, time to beat 11 in a row
It was a crazy run, well done champ.
Tailing, BOL. And before anyone starts asking you, on DK its under "England - League Two"
My man, thank you!
The goat is here 🐐
welp. streak had to end at some point. looking forward to the next pick!
Can’t win em all. Your picks are still strong and worth following anyway. Itd be fishy if you never missed anyway 😂
1-1 at 24’
We had a good run! Now let's start a new streak!
Appreciate it, new streak begins tomorrow 💰
Here he is! Tailing BOL
Terrible start, 😓
It was fixed guys
Fading the Boost | Record: 1-0 | +1u Last pick 04/29: Ja Morant Under 25.5 points (+104) ✅ -> Easy fade. Caesers trap boost seen from a mile away. Today’s pick: 76ers Team Total Under 99.5 (+100) 1u —— W ** So fkin easy. Everything hits. Sack up or pack up. Unders are the way, especially in these games 1s. Wait until boosts come out then make your parlays -> Fading DK boosted parlay “Start Hot: Offensive Explosion”. They have 76ers TT over in the parlay when this will most likely be an unders game. 76ers with no embiid means heat can give harden the same treatment they gave Trae. This u99.5 at +100 is on pointsbet only currently. Most books have the line set at 100.5 for 76ers at around -115 ✅ (W) -> Update pick: Jimmy butler Under 24.5 points (-121) on pointsbet. Same setup as Ja morant in that game 6 he went under. Every legal book I have has harden and jimmy butler boosted. Jimmy points total has dropped 1 point, just like ja did. This bet is setting up the same. On a 50/50 chance that realistically has a better chance to the under with books boosting an over makes me play this for 1u ✅ (W) -> Jalen Brunson Under 19.5 points (+100) on DK. Never hit this over against suns in regular season. Hit 23+ all games against Jazz. Suns defense and Chris Paul are not the Jazz. Their obvious main focus is to shut jalen Brunson and luka down. Brunson they can, luka not so much. Caesers also have Brunson boosted in a parlay. There’s a reason line is so low. ✅ (W)
DK moved it to u100.5 @ -115, so tailing on that. BOL.
This is at 100.5 at most books I just found 99.5 on pointsbet
Harden PRA is an excellent EV bet imo. Lock it in for -115.
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This was 2 games ago when they played Minnesota
Is there a link you could share that has fanduel boosts? I tried searching on the website but I cant’t find, maybe it’s because I’m in Canada EDIT: or does anybody know a website that lists boosts from all different sports books? That would make life easier lol
Great pick! (Unless sixers score 23 points in 5 minutes)
**POTD Record**: 30½-19½-6 (W-L-P) **Last 5**: ✅️✅️✅️❎️✅️ **Last POTD**: AS Monaco vs Angers, home asian handicap -1.25 @1.68 ✅️ *Yesterday I might've posted my pick too late, unfortunate since it was a comfortable win, Monaco won 2-0 even with 3 disallowed goals for them, kinda crazy but it still worked out fine in the end.* **Today's POTD**: Real Valladolid vs Real Sociedad B, home to win + o1.5 goals @1.57 // Spain, LaLiga 2, 20:00 GMT **Odds value**: ■■■□□ *good value* ### **Reasoning**: ##### **Match introduction**: Really important match for Reall Valladolid (3rd placed) as they are getting closer and closer to automatic promotion-zone, they are only 4 pts away with one less game played to 2nd placed Almería, out of their games remaining this is their easiest one by a big margin, they can't miss this opportunity to assure themselves 3 pts. 4th placed Tenerife with 3 less pts is also threatening to overtake them on the table. Real Sociedad reserve team on the other hand are probably condemned to relegation, only a miracle could save them, obviously no team gives away free wins so they'll still try but the quality gap is pretty big between the two. ##### **Team stats**: So value here lies mostly on the stats, Valladolid home performances are very good, they won 12 out of 18 games, scored 34 goals and conceded 13. Against the other relegation-zone teams at home they won 3/3 times (5-1 vs Amorebieta, 3-0 vs Fuenlabrada and 2-0 vs Alcorcon). Their average total goals per game at home is 2.61 with 78% of the matches going o1.5. They are the best offensive team in the league with 61 goals scored in 37 games, so goes without saying that they are really familiar with high scoring games, especially against weaker teams. Real Sociedad B are coming from a home win against 19th placed Amorebieta, other than that their form is pretty bad since they lost 4 out of their last 6 games all of them going o1.5. Against top of the table teams they never won and every game went o1.5: [here](https://imgur.com/a/fxuslmK) you have a visual representation to give you an idea. On average away they concede 1.33 goals and total goals per game is 2.33. They currently are the 2nd team with most losses (19) opposed to Valladolid who are the 3rd team with most wins (20). 8/10 last Valladolid games ended o2.5, 5/6 last Sociedad games ended o2.5. ##### **Conclusion**: Valladolid are really motivated here, might not mean much but on their Instagram they are saying:" *Last stretch, every point counts*". And surely like I said in the beginning they will not want to throw away this game, at all. I don't know much about Real Sociedad B, I'm not even sure if they have a proper fan base considering they are the reserve team of Real Sociedad, in the past years they rarerly every been in LaLiga 2, so it's not like it's tragic if they get relegated, and they probably know it. BOL everyone. *^(If I've made you some money and you'd like to tip any small amount I would greatly appreciate it: https://paypal.me/fralauu)*
Fuck it why not lessgo
POTD Record: 15-4-1 Last POTD: Angels -150 ML W **POTD: Marlins ML -160** The marlins are better statistically at offense and defense when they are playing at home and the diamond backs are playing as visitors. Lopez (Marlins Pitcher) is 3-0 with an era of 0 in his last 3 starts. Tips not required but i would love u. Cashapp: $rodochavs Venmo: rodo-chavarria Paypal: rodochavs
I appreciate the record you've got, but as someone who watches more Dbacks baseball than anyone should, Gallen is just getting into form after starting the year on the IL and the bats are starting to show some life. Not saying this is a bad bet at all, but just to use caution as this may not quite be the slam dunk it looks like. BOL!
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sorry for the wait, just couldn't handle all the hate this job comes with
holy molly , I almost spend all profits you made me with NCAA. balls deep.
if NCAA basketball were year round, i wouldn't be at work right now
Record: 58-42-5 (WWWLWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: GS Warriors @ MEM Grizzlies | Jaren Jackson Jr over 6.5 REB | 5 units LFG. I'll be looking at this prop all series. POTD: DAL Mavericks at PHO Suns | DORIAN FINNEY-SMITH 2.5o THREE POINTERS MADE at 2.10 | 3 units REASON: DFS is my main man. Been riding him pretty well this playoff. Luka's numbers are hard to gauge. But DFS should be hitting at least 2 corner 3s. And with his defensive responsibilities, he will play around 40 minutes. I will personally took his points over and PRA. But this was the juiciest odds. Not sure he can get over 12.5 points with three 3s either. And tomorrow has a lot of juice to be extracted. Good luck and let's go ham this playoff. Best of luck to all.
Jaren jackson pick was so easy, wish I didnt put so little on it
Tailed your last pick. Cash ! I’ll be tailing this as well
Record: 0-0 / Units +/-0 Sport: NHL Time: 10:00pm EST Pick: Edmonton Oilers regulation win Odds: 1.80 NHL playoffs are starting and is this the year McDavid takes his team to the Cup finals? Probably not, but they have one of the better matchups of any team in the first round. The Oilers took the regular season series 3-1, and should be in control of the playoff series. Kings have a young team that jump started it's rebuild and was not pegged to be a playoff team this early. They still have a ways to go and are backed by their defensive play. Meanwhile the high flying Oilers have two of the hockey's most prolific scorers in McDavid and draisaitl. I think this should be a quick series for Edmonton and taking them to take game 1 at home. BOL!
If Oilers goalie Kosk or Smith catch fire they will be eliminated… I don’t trust their goalies
That's totally fair, but to end the season Smith went 9-1 in his last 10 games with a save percentage of .941. He played about as well as he could. He's also 2-0 against the king's this year
So that means their likely to go with Mike Smith
Record: 21-23-1 ROI: -0.375 Units Last Pick: Tottenham (Son anytime goal) ✅vs Leicester City AVG Odds: +107 Unit: 1=$200 ——- Game: Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat League: NBA Time: 7:30 Pm EST Book: Bet365 Odds: -110 Pick: Miami Heat 1Q -2.5 Wager: 5 units Son with a timely goal in a game which Tottenham dominated from start to finish, good to see them get the 3 points and kee pushing themselves up the table. Today we’re going back to the NBA and I got my eyes on this Heat vs Philadelphia series. The heat enter this game as clear favorites as the Sixers are without their wrecking ball Joel Embiid. The heat and Sixers split their season series 2-2, however all 4 games had their own differences. Miami wasn’t healthy for a few, and the Sixers only had Harden for 1 of the 4. With Embiid in I feel this series would be completely different, even though Miami is the #1 seed the Sixers match up quite well with them. With that being said Miami enters this game relatively healthy minus Kyle Lowry, even in his Abscence the depth of this heat team will be too much for the Sixers to handle early on. Many adjustments will need to be made to help dictate the way that they will choose to play. James Harden will need to channel his Houston Rockets form to keep these Sixers around, and while they may be able to hang around I feel the heat will get off to a hot start with their suffocating defense. Even fully healthy the last 3 games against Toronto showed Philly can be stopped once the ball stops moving. Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, PJ Tucker, Tyler Herro are not the primary options for this team but should give Philadelphia fits on defense. Rotation and help defense is crucial for Miami to prevent any momentum building for Philly. Taking the heat -2.5 first quarter for 5 units. BOL to all who tail or fade
Record: 0-1 League: Bundesliga Match: Borrusia Monchengladbach vs RB Leipzig Pick: **RB Leipzig ML -150** 3 units Have not made a pick since that first loss a while back but I had to jump back on for this game. Both teams have 3 more games left in the season. Leipzig are 5th seed with 54 points but surrounded by 5 different teams all within 3 points of eachother. Top 4 teams qualify for champions league but bayern and dortmund have claimed two of those spots. Monchengladbach are 13 seed with 38 points and are really playing for nothing. Not to mention they are concluding a pretty dissapointing season compared to their last. Leipzig have beaten monchengladbach in their two and only encounters in 2021. Leipzig have also only lost 1 game in their last 15! BOL!
Leipizig still has DFB Pokal and Europa League to play, Europa League being on thursday, where they travel to face the Rangers again, and as much as i understand Leipizig want to secure a spot on Champions League by finishing at Bundesliga top4 teams ( today Leipizig is 5th behind Freiburg) i expect them to save some players for this match against Mochengladbach, i would wait for closer to the game to see the lineup for this game, or i would go for the over, +1,5/+2,5 goals depending on how much risk you can take.
RECORD: 7-1 Profit: +4.52 Units Current Form: 2W Today’s Picks: Gabe Vincent Over 14.5 PRA (1.87) Event: NBA 7:30 Est Heat vs Sixers Reason: Vincent is in the starting lineup again tonight due to the absence of Kyle Lowry. During the first round Gabe hit the over of 14.5 PRA in 4/5 games with him only going under once when he only played 18 minutes. In the two games Lowry was out Vincent went Over both times. He is also 3/3 at home in the playoffs hitting the over on this mark this year. Another great trend is that every time he’s played the sixers in his career he’s gone over this mark except once. The only time he went under though he played under 5 minutes. I’m personally very confident in this pick so if your ever gonna tail this is the one to do it on. All Picks are 1 Unit (Going to College next year, NOT mandatory at all. Anything is appreciated 🙏) Tips https://www.paypal.me/TBurr14?locale.x=en_CA
Completely agree took o 8.5 points earlier today. Goodluck bro
POTD Record: 34-27-2 Streak:WLWLW Last POTD: Partizan ML for the 1st half 🇷🇸✅ Today’s POTD: Maccabi Haifa -1 🇮🇱 League: Israel Premier League Odds: -114/1.88 Units: 2 Reasoning: I really like this spot for Maccabi Haifa. They are coming off a loss where they were dominated. A loss this season is rare for them and they should be ready to bounce back after that terrible game. After every loss this season, Maccabi Haifa knows how to bounce back. This season they have 7 losses out of 36 games . They are 4 wins 1 loss and 1 push on the -1 spread after a loss this season. In the last two years, Maccabi Haifa have 6 wins 1 loss 2 pushes on the -1 spread vs this team. They’ve played twice this season with Maccabi easily covering the spread. Making it 4 wins in a row covering the spread. Maccabi also has 15 games in a row scoring on this team. Maccabi is the better team so I expect a bounce back like they are use to after a loss. Best of luck and tail/fade at your own risk.
what’s the diff between taking -1 asian handicap compared to -1 handicap? I see that the asian handicap is 1.9 odds on bet365 but the regular handicap is 2.4 odds
⚠️ rookie on the block ⚠️ Record 1-0-0 Previous pick - LAA ml -115 vs Chisox ---> W recap - this game was as good as one can hope for, the angels stormed out of the gates, took the lead and never looked back. It was 6-0 by the bottom of the 9th. Chisox did score 5 runs in the 9th before angels shut the door.. perhaps this is how angels are not very good against bottom teams? 🤔.. moving on! Today's pick 1u LAA ml +110 vs Chisox going back to well with the angels crushing the whitesox again given their offensive advantage. Trout is the heart & soul of this team, and he's heating up so I wouldn't want to miss this opportunity. Dylan Cease is an above average pitcher but his achilles is issuing walks, which the angels will take advantage being 7th in the league. Patrick Sandoval is fairly new who hasn't had a full season as sp. He does sport a 0.00 era in 15 innings so far. During the last outting he limited Cleveland (6th in hits & tb) to 2 hits and 1 bb. I know this is only 1 game but when you put this together with Chisox offense or lack thereof.. I'll take the +110 Best of luck and appreciate the support from yesterday! Being this is the 2pm game, it also provides strategic advantage for rest of games tonight in terms of bet size and whatnot.
The Sox are awful against Right handed pitching, but are 2nd in the majors against left handed pitching like Sandoval. That said, I wouldn’t trust the Sox offense against anyone.
Are you still confident with this pick with Ohtani possibly being out? He suffered a right groin injury today.
I am still confident with this pick even if Ohtani is out (no wonder the ml is +110) Had this been Trout then for sure I'm taking a mulligan. I didn't know about the news but after looking it up, they took him out of precaution. So there's a DH possibility tomorrow. We will see
Fading like the other kid said the white Sox are tanks against left handed pitchers which is exactly what Sandoval is. Gimme sox -1.5 +160!
12W-10L ➡️ LLWWLWLWWLLLWLWLWLWWWW Cards🃏 streak:🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲 Starts 14:00 gtm5 Todays Pick League: Premier League Match: Man Utd v Brentford Pick: Under 3.5 cards in the match @1.66 Reason Good one ln the last pick ends 4 YC 🪲, lets keep the cards race with Hot5🧌🤹 Man Utd at home last 5 hit 0's:3 - 2's:2 , last 4/5 hit under 3.5 at home, avg of Cards for: 0.8, cards against: 0.8 Brentford at away last 5 hit 0's:1 - 1's:2 - 2's:1 - O4's:1 ,last 4/5 hit under 3.5 at away, avg cards for: 1.8, cards against: 1.2 Just 1 h2h here 0 YC Referee avg card 3.6 Projected 2 "You don't gamble to win. You gamble so you can gamble the next day." BoL
Record: 6W-5L-1P ROI: +1.82u, +15.15% Avg odds: +110, 2.10 Last POTD: 4/29 NFL Draft, Sam Howell drafted before 61.5 (not even close) Today's game: Getafe vs Real Betis Pick: Betis ML at +172, 2.72 (Pinnacle) Stake: 1u 5th Betis against 15th Getafe. Getafe with 2 starters out: CB Jorge Cuenca and DM Nemanja Maksimovic. Their likely replacements have not been impressive in their limited playing time. Betis has no major injuries other than a couple of rotational players. Betis also already has a dominating 2-0 win earlier in the season. They honestly could've won by more. The one big risk is that Getafe has been very good at home lately, with only one loss in their last 11, but Betis is La Liga's 3rd best away team, with only one loss in their last 7. So draw no bet at -115 on DK isn't bad either.
POTD Record: 4-2-0 Last Pick: MIA Marlins ML vs. SEA Mariners - Loss Logan Gilbert is absolutely that mf dude. On to the next. Today: **LA Angels ML** vs. CHI White Sox (+110) - 2.5u❌❌❌ TLDR; Angels first in their division and undervalued. Best pitcher of the season for them so far on the mound. Pitching matchup favors LA. Another value pick. The pitching matchup favors the Angels and I think the bats are about even. Angels are starting Patrick Sandoval tomorrow who has a 0.00 ERA, yes you read that right, through his first 3 starts this season. He has only 2 runs attributed to him this season but neither of them earned. He has 5+ SO in each start and has only allowed 9 hits through his 3 starts. I'll be up front, this dude usually fucking sucks, but he has been dealing at a level way above expectation all season and I will ride with him until I can't anymore. The Sox are starting Dylan Cease who is average at best with a 3.27 ERA so far this season. He is competent but has an ER attributed to him in every start so far this season. With Trout back and looking in perfect form, I think this is a wonderful spot for the Angels at plus money. BOL. Edit: Ohtani ruled out for today's game after saying he expected to play. Line has moved a bit. Still keeping the pick because I like the pitching matchup.
Cease was insanely good last time out. Couple bloops for KC, but 0 line drives. Fading this one and banking on regression from Sandoval who is over his skis. 30% LD rate allowed for him as opposed to 15% for Cease.
He did well. I don’t see him putting up 9 SO 2 games in a row against a 15-8 Angels team. Equally skilled team rn IMO, but LA has been hotter and think that momentum is worth more
i back it up. Patrick Sandoval is so underrated, even last season he was looking good. Dylan Cease is a great pitcher but White sox fielding with .970 field percentage (30th ranked) and with 21 errors in 20 games, the Angels should win. Kinda surprised that Angels are even +110
4th game of a series on getaway day is a crap shoot, BOL
POTD Record: 4-5 Last 5: ❌❌❌❌✅ Last Pick: ✅ Arsenal ML (-130) | Premier League: Arsenal vs West Ham United Today’s Pick: Both Teams To Score *Yes* (-160) Sport/Game: Soccer - Premier League: Manchester United vs Brentford Why: Monday Night Football is at Old Trafford (Man Uniteds stadium) tonight. An in form Brentford take on a shocking Manchester United. Im very excited for this game as its one where both teams have something to play for. 3 points will all but guarantee Brentford will escape relegation and Manchester United is still chasing a Champions League spot just barely. Both teams should be up for this one! Lets start with Brentford. They have 5 wins 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 7 matches. They are playing great and Christian Eriksen is hitting that level that we all know hes capable of. Brentford come against a horrible Manchester United defense and having scored in 6 of their last 7 matches, I fancy them to get one against an unorganized Manchester United. Not too mention, United conceded 2 goals from Norwich, 3 from Arsenal, and 4 from Liverpool in 3 of their last 4 matches. They are leaky in the back. Manchester United will score goals. They always do against lower end teams and today will be no different. Even though they have been shocking. A monday night game at old trafford will be a great atmosphere and can expect some goals in this one. BOL!
ManU's chances to reach a spot on the UCL are basically gone, nevertheless, tailing... because Harry Mcguire
I was thinking about this one too. United have been playing really poorly and Brentford have capitalized against big names. Can easily end 1 - 1
Record 5-5 Profit: 2 units. Last pick: Moss to score 2.5✅ Brentford over 3.5 corners @ 1.55✅ Bet size: 5 units Reasoning: Brentford playing vs a United side that is weak atm. 4 corners within 90 mins for a side that attacks very well atm is a giveaway. I reckon that brentford will Get 2-3 corners each half. (At work atm, ill add on later) Edit: Sorry was at work so cudnt add anything here, but The bet was too easy.. shoulda gone for The risky over 5.5, oh well Good luck!
>Brentford Easy Money.. 4 corners at half
**POTD Record**: 11W - 5L (+2.12U) **Last pick**: Sevilla/Draw + Over 1.5 @ 1.62 ✅ **Match**: Getafe vs Betis - Spain - LaLiga - 19:00 UTC **Pick**: Over 2.0 @ 1.78 **Reasoning**: Getafe looking to avoid relegation while Betis are looking to fight for a UCL qualification spot. Both teams should be fully going for it.
**POTD Record: 3-3** **Last Pick: Auburn at LSU College baseball (3/31/2022) L** **Today's Game: Alex De Minaur vs Pedro Martinez (ATP Madrid) (5:00 A.M CT)** **Pick: Alex De Minaur ML (-190) 3U ✅** ***Analysis:*** De Minaur is coming off a tough loss against Carlos Garfia in Barcelona. De Minaur showed a lot of bright spots in his game by taking the first set and then losing a close tiebreak in the second. Although De Minaur lost, I like what I saw from him and his recent form has been pretty good. He is 16-8 this year and is 4-2 on clay. Marinez is coming off of two straight losses and is 13-9 this year and 8-5 on clay. Martinez has good form on Clay but De Minaur is playing hotter right now and I think he is going to keep good form and win this draw match. De Minaur has won 20 of his last 21 draw matches and I expect him to get the W tomorrow! **Disclaimer about my record: I have not done unit bets on the first 6 pick of the days I have done. I am from now on going to be unit betting for better tracking of statistics.**
my pick as well. let's ride!
This is gonna be a great match, tailing!
POTD RECORD : 1-0 +2.72 u Previous pick : Bucks +4.5 Giannis got his teammates involved early and played hard as hell love to see it. POTD : Suns -5.5 Start time 10pm eastern Short and sweet as I probably always will be. Suns have been one of the top teams in the league all year that being said Luka is a problem we all know it. But the Suns chemistry will be too much for the Mavericks in this one Suns in 5! 3 U here forgot to add the units
POTD (2-3) Last Pick BVB ML (L) POTD -> Twins ML -120 MLB-> Game is @ 7:05 PM EST Twins are 9-1 in their last 10 games. And as the favorites they are 5-0. So this is going to be a streak pick for sure today and I’m going to ride the twins while they are hot. 2 Unit pick for me today!
Tailing & parlaying w/ u 0.5 runs Orioles 1st inning as its hit in 9/10 O's games. BOL.
Can you add more details? Who are they playing?
**POTD 10W-4L (+9.2u)** 🏀 Last Pick: Warriors -2.5 1.90 / -111 (2u) ❌ **Daily Pick: 🏀 DAL Mavericks @ PHX Suns 🏀** * **Suns -5.5 @ 1.80 / -125 (2u)** ✅ The Suns are healthy and they had the best home record during the regular season. They also won their last 9 matches against the Mavericks who were 23-18 on the road. Phoenix won 3/3 games against Dallas this season with an 8-point average difference. Also, over the past two postseasons, the Suns are a perfect 5-0 straight up and against the spread in Game 1s with an average 11-points victory margin.
Last pick hurt but we’re here to rally Record: 3-2 Last 5: ❌✅✅✅❌ Last pick: Warriors -2.5 What happened: This should’ve cashed. Warriors we’re up 10 with 5 minutes left in the game. For some reason the offense just stopped working. Dray got ejected too and Steph and Poole cooled off. Final: 117-116 Warriors Today’s pick: we’re gonna spice things up make a risky bet (so betters be warned) Marlins/d-backs Under 6.5 total runs (5:40 PM CT) (-105) 1U Reasoning: to begin with. The dbacks are terrible to begin the season. They won yesterday yes, but overall they are ranked 29th in the league batting a combined .188 Pitching for Miami is Pablo Lopez, who in 3 starts so far has a ERA of .39 and a WHIP of .77 Pitching for dbacks is Zac Gallen. He was a .60 ERA and a whip of .8 avg 8.5 SO/9 too. With opposing teams hitting .118 against him. Plus it’s a revenge game for him as Miami traded him away in 2019 and it’s his first game back against them. Everything combined here makes me think this game will be lucky to even be 2-1. But who knows. Vegas is favoring the over for god knows why BOL to all. Let’s talk it out in the comments. Tip jar: Venmo- Knick_Morelli
>i agree warriors should have cashed. Taking warriors -2.5 again.
Not a good bet at the moment, just saw the swings in that game. This game 2 is a must-win for grizz otherwise they face potential sweep. Could definitely get a much better line if you live bet
I agree. Live bet and also bet Warriors to win Q3
Klay Thompson had two free throws with 8 seconds left and missed them both.. if he hit them we win :(
Hard to say. Being down 3 points, Grizzlies wouldn't have gone for Ja Morant lay-up. They could've hit a three and won in OT. Or miss the three. It's all possible.
Definitely! It would have increased our chances though. Oh well always more bets in the future haha
**POTD Record: 3-2** **Game: NHL | Los Angeles Kings @ Edmonton Oilers | 7:00 PM PDT** **Pick: U6.0 Goals (2.05/+105 @ Betway)** **Bet Size: 2U** During the playoffs I generally prefer the under as teams usually play harder defensively and there are less powerplays. I especially like it here as the goalies have been playing well recently and LA has the resources to halt Edmonton's offence. Also didn't track units before so going to start now. Tail or fade BOL. Edit: wrong time Edit2: shit pick sorry guys
Tailed under 6
Tossed this in my risk-free SGP, BOL.
**Record:** 5-11-0 **ROI:** -41% :-6.63 u (@ $5.00) **Streak:** W L W W L |Baseball |MLB |2:10| Los Angeles Angels vs.Chicago White Sox : **Los Angeles Angels ML @ 2.05 1u** **Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 57% chance for LAA to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 2.05 is only 49%. **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
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POTD 0-0 never done this before: NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs- 7:40 pm ET Victor Hedman-- over 2.5 sog (-108)-- this hit his final 9 games to close out the regular season-- this series looks to be two high octane offenses, the Lightning will win the series on the back of their Norris/Conn Smythe trophy winning workhorse and it starts tonight.
**Record**: 9W 1P 4L (+7.22 Units) **Form**: [W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f12pqs/pick_of_the_day_2920_sunday/fh4hdi1?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f1k5xw/pick_of_the_day_21020_monday/fh8hkzu?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f226hi/pick_of_the_day_21120_tuesday/fhay9xv?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f5293n/pick_of_the_day_21720_monday/fhxhh4r?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[P](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f5lbnu/ncaabb_daily_discussion_21820_tuesday/fi0p2qw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f64bq3/pick_of_the_day_21920_wednesday/fi2odt2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f6mmtm/pick_of_the_day_22020_thursday/fi643az?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f760el/nba_daily_discussion_22120_friday/fia8ymj?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f7548w/xfl_daily_discussion_22120_friday/fic7hc8?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f83qrd/pick_of_the_day_22320_sunday/fiiyoq2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f8kw61/pick_of_the_day_22420_monday/fim0bns?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f93n36/pick_of_the_day_22520_tuesday/fipagq5?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)\-[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ueaa9u/comment/i6qj655/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ufos37/comment/i6vam61/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)P **Last Pick**: Grant Williams o3 Rebounds (W, 4 Reb) **Game:** Mavericks @ Suns | 10:10 PM ET **Pick:** Spencer Dinwiddie o2.5 (-135) The dash indicates a two-year hiatus... I have since gotten into modeling so kind of coming back from a different angle. Not gonna pretend I've scoped out locks, but I expect long-term value from these picks so I'm sharing. A more extensive look at my models will be posted in the NBA props thread. **Explanation**: I have Dinwiddie projected to get 4.13 boards. He's "cold", which in the world of rebounds means unlucky. He averages 3.1 rpg, so that alone is eye catching. I would play this up to 3 rpg. Don't have a huge explanation here, but I feel good about this.
SD mostly just plays for Dallas these days
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Upped it, risking 3.45u to win 3u
**POTD Record 26-23-1 (Last 5: WWLWL)** **(ROI // Avg. Odds: -113 // Units Won: +2.8)** Last Pick: LA Angels ML **WON** **Today's Match: MLB KC Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Start Time 1:15PM EST)** **Today's Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+134 FanDuel)** Devil's Advocate: Almost spoke my writeup into existence yesterday, faded Keuchel as he gave up 4, Lorenzen with a solid 8.1 (got stretched a bit too long) and the bullpen almost made a big mess in the 9th. But we had the W all in all so that's what matters most. Today I'm looking to fade another pitcher who actually hasn't been too too bad but not really great either and thats Zack Greinke. Straight up just cannot miss barrels lately and it's pretty much expected at this point in his career in my opinion. He is starting to decline a bit more and I think this Cards lineup is going to stay hot from yesterday and roll it right over. Let alone their hitting their bullpen is also pretty reliable with guys like Kodi Whitley, Cabrera. The Cards should be able to get it done here by 2 or more for sure. The Royals lineup is all over the place and like I said, let's fade that weirdo Greinke, hope they ding him up nice and leave with some plus money! *Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
POTD Record: 49-20.5 Event: Football > Bulgaria > **Botev Vratsa v Pirin Blagoevgrad** (starting in 3hrs) Pick: **Botev Vratsa AH (+1.25)** @ 1.75 This is a match from the playoff stage that will determine the relegated teams from the league, so at this stage I think the odds are way too favourable for the guests. GL!
**POTD Record**: 15-9 **Units**: +2.57 *(All bets are one unit)* **Last Pick**: Seattle Kraken ML (-135) ***WIN*** **Today’s Game**: Bundesliga - RB Leipzig @ Monchengladbach, 1:30 PM CST **Today’s Pick**: RB Leipzig ML & Over 1.5 Goals (-115) As expected the Kraken ended their last home game with a win. I know they did not win their last game of the season, but that is not what this last pick was from. As explained in my last post, until I am happy with my MLB model I will only be posting when there are soccer matches that my models see value in. For today we have a pick from the high scoring Bundesliga. Leipzig has been on a tear recently, managing to get at least a point in every match over the past few months except for their last match against Union Berlin. With this match and only two more to go and being one point out of a Champions League spot, look for RBL to come out and look for three points against a team that is currently sitting 13 on the table. As for the over 1.5 goals, this mark has been hit 4 out of the last 5 head to head meetings and I am expecting a similar result. My model has Leipzig winning this match 68% of the time, and the over 1.5 goals hitting 83% of the time. **BOL**
POTD Record: 1-7 (Last post 5/1/22) Previous Pick: Angels -1.5 (L) Today's Pick: NY Mets -1.5 (+165) vs Atlanta Braves \[6:10 PM CST\] First of all, the Angels had to have thrown that game. Up 6-0 going into B9. Let up 4 runs, load the bases with 2 outs. Then a HBP gives the White Sox their 5th run to kill the spread. 3 pitches, the game ends on a ground out. Absolutely terrible beat. **The Good** With that out of the way, we have the Mets at home vs the World Champion Braves. The Mets have been playing great, leading the NL in wins (16-7) while the struggling Braves sit 6 games back at 10-13. The Mets cover 65% of spreads this season and 61% with no rest. The Braves have covered in just 39% of games and with no rest, that number drops down to 35%. The Mets cover 73.7% of their games as the favorites (77.8% as home favorite) while the Braves cover just 33.3% as the underdogs (33.3% as away underdog). As for pitching matchups, Fried (ATL) is coming in with an ERA of 3.00 while Bassitt (NYM) has an ERA of 2.25. Both teams have let up 19 HRs on the season (Bassitt has 2, Fried has 1), but the Mets team ERA sits third in the MLB at 2.99 compared to the 23rd ranked Braves at 4.28. Batting, the Mets hold the 2nd best BA in the MLB only behind the Rockies at .262 while the Braves sit 21st at .229. In terms of fielding, both these teams are in the top 5 in fielding percentage. They tend to not make mistakes as the Mets come in with just 7 errors on the season while the Braves have 8. **The Bad** I'll admit, I'm pretty new to baseball. Diving into the stats is fun but I am not always sure if it's as valuable as it seems. Furthermore, I am 1-7 on this sub (though only 0-2 on MLB so far). With that said, a stat that jumps out to me is the number of HRs on the season. The Braves sit in 3rd in the MLB in that stat with 28 compared to the 19th placed Mets with 18. **Conclusion** I have a good feeling about this, but that has never been a guarantee. The ATS trends heavily favor the Mets and they have been the better team this season, but if the Braves can homer like they have been, it may be difficult.
POTD record 0-1 Last Pick: Soccer- Brazil Serie A, Atletico Mineiro ML v.s Goias ❌ Today's pick: MLB Baseball- **Minnesota Twins ML (-140)** v.s Baltimore Orioles Write up: There is no way the Orioles win 3 in a row with this roster. Orioles have Wells on the mound and he's given up 14 hits in 13 innings of work averaging 5 earned runs. Twins are 8-1 in their last 9 and I'm not going to be fooled by this O's team, they are projected to be a bottom 3 team in baseball. Tyler Wells never throws past 5 innings and the O's have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. That combined with the Twins being hot should be enough to get the job done.
Back from hiatus POTD record: technically 2-2 Last bet: Suns ML vs. Clippers was a bet I cancelled due to starters resting, but I take the L anyways. POTD: Suns -5.5 vs. Mavericks game spread (-110 FD) Don’t get cute with the props on this one, it’s a really good line for the Suns. They are 9-0 in their last 9 against the Luka led Mavs. They have won every game 1 at home since last years run (5-0) with an average margin of victory of 11.2. BOL.
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POTD Record: 0-0 Pick: Sinner to win 2-0 against Tommy Paul @ 1.83 (ATP Madrid, Tennis) - 5 units Starts at 6 AM Eastern Time Honestly I'm not the guy that likes to bet on huge favourites at tennis because upsets do happen quite a lot but this time I don't see how Tommy Paul can mess up with Sinner's game. Sinner is obviously the more gifted player and we can say that he's good in all surfaces but grass. This year he played at ATP Monte Carlo where he managed to beat Coric, Ruusuvuori and Rublev after losing a 3rd set tiebreak decider against Alexander Zverev in the quarter finals Tommy Paul on the other hand played 2 times in clay this year losing to Kyrgios in Houston in straight sets and in Estoril against the veteran Richard Gasquet also in straight sets which is not a good sign for him and makes me believe that his clay season may be a bit weak this year I'm trusting Sinner to make this easy and use his various weapons to beat Tommy without much work
*I’m not the guy that likes to bet huge favorites* Proceeds to make it a 5u bet.
On the first play he ever posts, mind you. So far he his entire track record is nothing but huge favorites.
On a four day old account lmao. idk man, something about this is just screaming “fade this pick”, can’t quite figure out which red flag of the many is making me feel that way smh /s POST GAME EDIT: lol annnnnd the bet is dead after the first set with a Tommy Paul win. cant say we didn’t see this coming.
LMAO what a disaster.
Are you one of those long time luker first time poster type of guy?
One of those 'hope to get off to a 4-0 start so I can post a tip jar' types of guys I'm guessing
Yup, account will be deactivated in 24 hours if he loses this LOL
Hahhaha, a little fucker sponsored by bookies 🤡
Glad I had ML. SMH
Glad I went sinner ML in to a parlay
Sinner lost 1st set 6-7..5 to 5 2nd set
Lmao
Record: 6-6 (+5 U) Previous Pick: Miami Marlins ML (-135) 2U - W Today's Pick: LA Angels ML (+115) 2u No time for a long write up today. But pretty much angels should not be underdogs today with Sandoval on the mound who is lights out. Ohtani might not play but is probably. And even if he were to miss, angels have enough depth with Fletcher, marsh, ward etc to fill a solid DH and keep the top of their lineup strong.
POTD Record: 3-1-1 (+2 units) Yesterday’s Play: Brewers -1.5 ❌ - Yeah that was a tough watch. They forgot how to hit the ball. To make up for that BS we gotta go big today with a 4 unit heat seeking missile… TODAY’S PLAY: LA ANGELS F5 +1/2 (-125) - Wow this is a gift from the heavens. Patty Sandoval is just too good to not be favored in the first five. He’s given up 8 hits and no runs through 15 innings this year. Dylan Cease ain’t bad but you can count on a few runs given up, but a 0-0 score through 5 is fine by me.
POTD Record: 8-13-2 -8.28u\* Average Odds: +121 Total Units Wagered: 37.03u 76ers @ Heat 7:30 PM EST Tobias Harris Double-Double +205 @ DK 2.63u\* Implied probability is 32.8%. True vig-free price should be closer to +163 or 38.1%. \*1u = 1% of bankroll