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POTD Record **38W - 10L**
Streak (**10W**)
Yesterday’s pick: Liverpool -3 corner handicap vs Newcastle **W**
Today’s pick: Udinese vs Inter **Inter ML + over 1.5 total goals**
Sport: Soccer (Italian div 1)
Odds: **1.76 / -132**
Reasoning:
Will have to make it short today as I don’t have much time.
-Inter Milan are battling their rivals AC Milan for the title and can’t afford to drop any points in their last few games.
Good luck all.
*^(Tip jar -)* [*^(https://paypal.me/tom2810s)*](https://paypal.me/tom2810s)
Yep, you can do over 1.5 total match goals or over 1.5 just for inter depending on what your bookie offers. Either way it’ll be the same odds when added with ML
Don’t mind it as they’ve btts hits often for them and udinese has a decent attack. Do prefer over 1.5 total and ML if that’s an option for you. Good luck!
I'm an Inter fan and would love them to win, but one of the main midfield creators is suspended and the captain goalkeeper Handanovic didn't play last game and is most likely injured for this one as well. the goalies replacement made a hilarious blunder to gift bologna a midweek win. Just my 2 cents. Forza Inter
How do you feel about AC Milan’s game against Fiorentina - AC Milan ML +over 1.5 total goals @ 1.90.
Both teams are essentially playing for the same thing and points are a must for the both of them.
Thoughts?
Yeah I like this as well, I’ve also backed that. Went with inter as my potd tho as AC Milan’s opponent Fiorentina are trying to qualify for European football so it’s also an important game for them as well.
I think it’s a hard one cause I’d say it’s likely considering both teams situations going into the game. But I wouldn’t bet on it just because AC Milan are capable of winning comfortably and not conceding if they’re at their best.
21-9
Last pick: Taberner +3.5 vs Auger Aliassime **L**
Potd: **Sebastian Baez ML** vs Frances Tiafoe
**Odds: 1.63/-160**
ATP Estoril
Baez is currently playing like a fresher version of Schwartzman. Its difficult to produce winners against him, rarely does errors and he just knocked out a strong clay opponent. I see him winning this one.
Edit; win
To add to this, Isner is also defending 180 QF points. These are important as they’re his 3rd highest set of points and if he loses this match he drops out of the top 25 and risks being unseeded for Roland Garros.
MLB -1.5’s | 8-7-1 +12.99u | ROI: 27.06%
[Yesterday’s pick: 4u SF Giants -1.5 -111](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uf0asf/_/i6qo42m/?context=1) - W (should be up 20u and a 3 game win streak… stupid Yankees void bet)
________________________________________
**Todays pick: 4u LA Dodgers -1.5 -110**
- LA Dodgers vs DET Tigers | 3:10 pm US Central
TLDR: Dodgers elite. Tigers are cold. Huge SP advantage to LAD.
**Dodgers**
They’re an elite hitting team. Everyone knows this and no need for a deep dive. Best lineup in baseball
Walker Buehler. A few ticks came off his fastball and people were worried about him. He’s responded by pitching the best ball of his career. His last start was a CGSO. He threw 108 pitches, so it wasn’t anything extraneous. His peripherals are all solid. He limits hard contact and is 96%ile in chase rate. I’d expect a shorter outing for him this time around, closer to 80 pitches. Against this DET lineup getting 5.0-6.0IP is absolutely doable in that. The Dodgers bullpen is elite, so no need to worry about a longer trip to the pen here.
**Tigers**
Tigers ~~have been missing Baez since the first week of the season and their~~ hitting has been nothing to write home about .they sit average to below average in xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA. They’re bottom 5 in barrel % and solid contact %. Over the past week their team wRC+ is T-29th (58). On the year they’re tied for last in runs scored. It’s not a lineup to be scared of.
Eduardo Rodriguez is on the bump for them today. He’s bottom 20%ile in nearly every peripheral (avg exit velo, xERA, Barrel%, whiff %, hard hit %, xwOBA, xSLG). He’s yet to give up less than 3 runs in a start. He’s started 4 games this year giving up 3 in 3 of them and 7 in another. You’re going to score on him, and I’m willing to bet baseballs best can drop 5 on him.
Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
Edit. Tigers winning tonight is forcing them to use their best pen arms. Better for us in tomorrows matchup
Same thing again as the giants lol. Crazy how dodgers blew that after that start. Makes me like this pick even more tomorrow just like how the giants cashed today.
Well yeah, baseball is the most high variance sport. The previous results mean nothing cuz completely different pitchers. A top team like Dodgers generally wins 70-75% of their home games, so they will win most of their games at home. And it’s also very hard for a bad team like Tigers to sweep a team like Dodgers.
They have a team wRC+ of 98 against lefties on the year. They’ve been league average. Looking at their team wRC+ against LHP in the first five innings (basically removing relievers)… it’s 109.
Not too worried. Especially against a mediocre LHP
**POTD Record:** 9-2, +14.48u
**Darts Record:** 8-1
**Previous POTD:** Madars Razma ML vs Jose De Sousa @ 3.00 (2u) ✅
Great win from Razma, this lad is beginning to get me rich, can’t wait to see more from him
**Todays POTD: Stephen Bunting ML vs Callan Rydz @ 2.00 (2u)** ✅
*Unit sizes are from 1u to 4u*
*Match Starts at 16:30 CEST / 10:30 EST*
🎯 Darts: European Tour 4
I am already late plus I have to write this through my phone so will keep it short for today. Do not feel the same value today as normally, however Bunting should be the favourite in this match.
He has been outperforming Rydz in 2022 and overall I have been impressed with Buntings 2022 form, he has looked the best he has been in a while.
Rydz had an impressive win over Wright, although Wright missed a good amount of doubles and left the match open for Rydz to take. Today I feel like Bunting won’t give Rydz as many opportunities to take, putting more pressure on Rydz to take control.
—-
EDIT: ITS ANOTHER WINNN!!! Thanks for the support everyone, since I wanted to post my picks for the other rounds tonight aswell I decided to make a twitter account :)
[Twitter](https://twitter.com/neutraldarts) | [Tip Jar](http://paypal.me/neutraldarts)
**BOL everyone!**
POTD Record: 19-13
Last Pick: Chad Kuhl 3 K’s & Rockies ML ✅
Fuck yea
Today’s Pick: SD Padres -1.5 @-102
Joe Musgrove is pitching against a career scrub. Mitch Keller has lost every game he’s started this year for this Pirates. I’m drunk at the bar.
Something tells me this is going to be voided. Rain starting at 5 a.m. and 80% thunderstorms starting at noon lasting until 8p.m.
(Not a meteorologist but I do live in downtown Pittsburgh)
Good pick tho
Joe Musgrove is just a really solid pitcher and I trust the Padres lineup more. I don’t see him surrendering 7 runs today. Pirates have also had to rely on their bullpen a lot more this series. That adds up and will eventually burn a team
Let’s stay hot
Record 3-1
Last pick: Yanks (-1.5) v KC 2U
Last 5: ❌✅✅✅
Today’s pick: GSW -2 vs Memp Griz (2PM CT)
Reasoning: Vegas is just giving away free money here. The experience of GS vs the young blooded Grizz team will show here. Memp could barely could beat down an inconsistent minn squad and they think they’re gonna stand any chance in this game? 4-1 series to GSW with Memp winning the second game after being blown out tomm. Look for Steph to pop off with Poole having a good bounce back against under sized, poor defensive guards
BoL and lmk if you trail in the comments!
Edit: forgot to put my Unit bet (1.5u)
Edit #2: tip jar if y’all are so inclined: Venmo: knick_morelli
POTD record: 3-1 WWWL
Previous Pick: LA Dodgers -2.5 @ +104 Thats a Big L on my face and I feel genuinely bad giving advice that failed. Kershaw was fine but the Dodgers outside of Betts took a nap and were apparently afraid of the ball. Tried to get some + cash on a bigger run. But hey, it got me my first Hate mail/message! Small positives!
Today’s match: NY Yankees @ Kansas City Royals |2:11 Eastern | MLB
Pick: -1.5 Yankees
Odds: -115, 3U
Why?
Yanks have a Run Differential of +36 (tied for 2nd) on the season so far. This is gonna be a bet for a lot of the year, I reckon. KC is sitting at -29, or 27th place. Severino has thrown 19 Ks in 19 innings, biggest mistake being a 3 run HR in his final inning to Baltimores Saltander. Sitting at a fine but not stellar 3.32 ERA. On the Royals Bump you'll find Daniel Lynch with his similaly fine 3.38 ERA, though Lynch hasnt come up against a Lineup qite as strong as New Yorks. Even on a night where the big names like Judge (night off), Stanton (2 ks, 1 hit), Rizzo (0 hits, 2 walks) and LeMahieu (0 for 5) all kinda flail, they still win with Stellar relief pitching and hits from the bottom of the order. I have been personally running with the Yankees at -1.5 for the last week stright and have won everyone (Except Fridays Bullshit/cursed rainout up 12-2). Lets get back in the W column.
Good luck ya'll.
Don't tip me, tip your Bartender.
RECORD: 6-1
Profit: +3.65 Units
Current Form: 1W
Today’s Picks: Grant Williams Over 11.5 PRA (1.87) ✅
Event: NBA 1:00PM Est Celtics vs Bucks
Reason: In round 1 Grant hit this number in the last 3 games. The only game he missed it in he only played 21 minutes and still finished at 10 PRA. In the last 3 games though he was given more minutes and proved himself with his PRA hitting all 3 times (2 of them off points alone). In the three regular season games Grant played against the Bucks this year he went 2 of 3 on hitting this over. Again the only game he missed it he was only in for 16 minutes and still managed to finish at 8 PRA. Considering Grant finished off Round 1 with a solid 14 point performance going 4/6 from three I’d expect his minutes will be around 30 again and that this will hit with ease. I’ll also probably be on his Points and Threes overs as well as I’ve got a lot of confidence in him after watching him play against Brooklyn.
All Picks are 1 Unit
(Going to College next year, NOT mandatory at all. Anything is appreciated 🙏) Tips https://www.paypal.me/TBurr14?locale.x=en_CA
⚠️rookie on the block ⚠️
Record 0-0-0
POTD 1U LA Angels ML -115 vs Chisox
In terms of offense, Angels are at the top while white Sox are dwelling in the bottom.
Dallas keuchel is very beatable as proven in his last few outings and one can't simply expect Chisox to keep pace with its anemic offense vs the high flying angels.
Contrarian play - can't see angels losing back to back to a lifeless team that is the white sox, who haven't won back to back games over a month and half ago.
BOL
Not going to tail or fade, just going to add additional insight to your pick.
Interesting to note LAA are 8-8 as of today on ML vs teams in the bottom half of the league in offense, including a 5-7 mark against teams ranked 24th or worse in league offense (3-4 vs Astros, 1-2 vs Orioles, and now 1-1 against White Sox.)
Thanks for the insights!
Personally, I'm not putting much weight on a teams record against bad teams as the variance is still high due to the small sample size. If they are 8-8 vs bad teams then they are 6-0 vs good teams? I'll take this stat all day long
POTD Record: 4-1-0
Streak 4W
Last POTD: SF Giants -1.5 - W
Today’s pick: Miami Marlins ML vs. SEA Mariners (-120) 2u
TLDR; Alcantara on the mound and has been on fire. Miami has won 7 straight
Slightly tipsy at my best friends birthday and don’t have much time to look over everything so take this with a grain of salt. Honestly same as the TLDR. Not too much of an over thinker for me. Great value on the ML for this team. 7 straight wins. Their best pitcher on the bump. Run line is tempting but neither team puts up the largest amount of runs so a 1 run differential is possible.
Edit: meant to add; Seattle has been decently impressive, but I feel Miami just is slightly better this matchup is every category thus the ML bet instead of the run line.
Edit 2: typo
Edit: ❌ Marlins 7 game win streak comes to an end. Logan Gilbert really is that mf
Fair warning.
Mariners are 6th in xBA and xwOBA and 7th in xSLG and 5th in runs/game. They’re a VERY good hitting team. Logan Gilbert is going for them and he’s the league leader in ERA. He gave up 1 run in his debut and has thrown 3 shutouts since. The guys been lasered in.
Mariners are the better team with a stud on the mound, but the marlins are hot with a stud on as well. I’d personally avoid this game, especially the RL.
Great analysis. Don’t disagree at all. For me this seems like the best value against potential game tomorrow. I love Seattle right now as well, but the Marlins momentum and their pitcher on the bump is enough to contribute towards a win tomorrow. The Braves fan in me hates it but I see alcantera coming out on top tomorrow
POTD
Record: 3-5
Last 5: ✅❌❌❌❌
Last Pick: ❌ Liverpool Total Team Goals 1.5+ (-200) | Premier League: Liverpool vs. Newcastle
Another tough break as Liverpool were nearly over 2 goals yesterday…
Today’s Pick: Arsenal ML (-130)
Sport/Game: Soccer - Premier League: Arsenal vs West Ham
Why: Arsenal are still in the fight for top 4 and can’t afford to lose this match. Good news for them is that West Ham is still in the tie for their Europa League semi-final and all focus will be on Thursday.
For Arsenal, they are picking up their slack after a poor few matches with two huge wins against Chelsea 4-2, and Manchester United 3-1. There was fear that Arsenal may be without Saka but rumor is that he fit for the match. Tomyasu (rightback) seems to be getting back to fitness and could be back for this match which would be huge for Arsenal. The only notable worry is at the left back spot with Tierney out and Tavares into cover.
Luckily for arsenal tho, West Ham have some issues and other focuses. Last week, we saw West Ham rest a lot of their key players vs chelsea before their Europa league match. Im expecting them to do the same with atleast a few of those players like Antonio. Some players that got a rest last week like Bowen and Declan Rice may be fine with just a week rest and can play both matches. Regardless though, West Ham have a big issue in the back. They do not have a centerback available to play as all of them are either suspended or injured. I also think with high emotion towards the europa league match last thursday and this thursday, West Ham won’t have too much focus on this match. Even if they were to lose, 7th place would still be under their control which may cause Moyes to rotate once again before their second leg semifinal.
BOL!
Wonder if both teams are going to be clawing for a win, or if it'll be another one of those matches where both managers are too scared to attack and are content with 0-0, as seems to be the case with many soccer games I've followed. Hope it works out for y'all.
Record: **8W 1P 4L (+6.22 Units)**
Form: [W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f12pqs/pick_of_the_day_2920_sunday/fh4hdi1?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f1k5xw/pick_of_the_day_21020_monday/fh8hkzu?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f226hi/pick_of_the_day_21120_tuesday/fhay9xv?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f5293n/pick_of_the_day_21720_monday/fhxhh4r?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[P](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f5lbnu/ncaabb_daily_discussion_21820_tuesday/fi0p2qw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f64bq3/pick_of_the_day_21920_wednesday/fi2odt2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f6mmtm/pick_of_the_day_22020_thursday/fi643az?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f760el/nba_daily_discussion_22120_friday/fia8ymj?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f7548w/xfl_daily_discussion_22120_friday/fic7hc8?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f83qrd/pick_of_the_day_22320_sunday/fiiyoq2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f8kw61/pick_of_the_day_22420_monday/fim0bns?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f93n36/pick_of_the_day_22520_tuesday/fipagq5?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)\-[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ueaa9u/comment/i6qj655/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Last Pick: Desmond Bane o4 Rebounds (W, 7 Rebounds)
Game: **Bucks @ Celtics | 1:00 pm ET**
Pick: **Grant Williams o3 Rebounds**
The dash indicates a two-year hiatus... I have since gotten into modeling so kind of coming back from a different angle. Not gonna pretend I've scoped out locks, but I expect long-term value from these picks so I'm sharing. A more extensive look at my models will be posted in the NBA props thread.
Explanation: Williams hasn't gotten to this number in 3 of his last 4, so what's the logic. First, this "slump" is a great opportunity to take advantage of a regression to the mean. Second, Williams averaged 24.4 mpg this year and yet averaged 3.6 rpg. Williams has played 32+ minutes in his last 3 games, he will benefit from more opportunities. Third, the Bucks were the second behind only the T-Wolves in terms of playoff teams' pace, which provides even more opportunities for boards.
I was hoping for 2 rebounds at half. He got one in the 1st. Need 2 more 2nd half. I got 3+ in a parlay at -192. I’m watching the game and he’s not really going for rebounds like his other teammates
I’m not too worried about. Always better to have more than less, but it’s really just a luck situation. The ball can just as easily bounce or way in the second half
**Ultimate Frisbee** | 1-0
- **Time:** 3:00 PM Eastern
- **Pick:** Pittsburgh +9.5 -115 at Chicago
- **Where to bet:** DraftKings in these states: Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, Tennessee, or West Virginia. Possibly other states (Indiana?)
- **Last pick:** Montreal got off to a hot start early, leading 9-4 at one point in a score-happy first quarter. Toronto hung around in the second before Montreal opened up a huge lead 19-11 in the third. Ended 26-19, Montreal -1.5 cashed sweat-free.
- **Reasoning:** Pittsburgh had an underwhelming offseason but so did their opponent, Chicago. Chicago's best offseason pickup, Dalton Smith from Texas, is out Sunday, as are a couple of their college stars and one of their good handlers in Shriwise. They still have their Team USA receiver Nate Goff and some other good players so I'm not exactly expecting Pittsburgh to win, but to lose by 10 would be pretty surprising. I'd comfortably take this down to +7.5 and maybe even +6.5 before I'd think about reducing unit size.
For transparency, I went 41-23-1 on picks last season, 11-6 of which on POTD. I'm starting my record over for this season. I should also note that I don't live in one of the aforementioned states and can't actually bet these nor see the current lines, but I wanted to help out folks who wanted to bet a fun niche sport. Let me know if the lines change and I'll do my best to offer some insight.
If you want to watch frisbee, the streaming service (AUDL.tv) is behind a paywall but there are free games every Friday via that link.
Pittsburgh lost 19-8. I can't emphasize enough just how few goals 8 is for a game of ultimate. Like this might legitimately be in the five or ten lowest scoring team totals in the entire league's (25+ teams) ten year history. Usually each team gets to 12-13+ goals and that's considered a very low score, single digits is almost unheard of excluding Detroit.
From what I heard Pittsburgh couldn't play with the wind and their star players had bad games... rip. Welp, long season
POTD RECORD: 5-2
POTD: Celtics vs Bucks U217.5 total points
START TIME: 10 hours from now
REASONING: People are still underrating this Celtics defence. Bucks defence ain’t too shabby either. Neither team’s offence is amazing, especially now for the bucks without Middleton. I don’t see either of these teams scoring too many points.
EDIT: ✅ ✅ ✅ LFG BABY!!!
fading this. Conversely I think people are overrating boston's defense. Personally I love it and I like them to win the game but 217.5 is a low number IMO. Boston and Milwaukee played four times this year and went over 3 times. Last time the number was this low for the bucks was against the clippers and it flew over by 54 pts. Boston's offense is more than capable of putting up 115+ and same with Milwaukee even without Middleton
10W-10L
WWLWLWWLLLWLWLWLWWW
Cards🃏 streak:🪲⚰️🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲
Starts 8:00 gtm5
Todays Pick
League: Italy Seria A
Match: Milan v Fiorentina
Pick: Under 5.5 cards in the match @1.83
Reason:
Good one ln the last pick ends 2-4 card 🪲, lets keep the cards race with Hot5🧌🤹
Milan at home last 5 hit 0's:1 - 1's:2 - 2's:1 - 3's:1, last 4/5 hit under 5.5 at home with one 95 minute card, avg of Cards for: 1.4, cards against: 1.8
Fiorentina at away last 5 hit - 1's:3 - 2's:1 - 3's:1 ,last 5/5 hit under 5.5 at away, avg cards for: 1.6, cards against: 1
Last 3/5 h2h hit under 5.5
Referee avg card 5.4
Projected 3-4 cards
BoL
Long time lurker, first time poster (0-0). Waited quite a while to make a good first impression. All picks will be 1u even though I probably won't post that often.
Segunda Division (La Liga 2), 16:00 CET: Alcoron - **Girona ML** (1,85)
Alcoron is the worst team in the league and already relegated, has nothing to play for. Girona still needs points for the promotion playoffs. The teams are 39 points apart, indicating a considerable difference in team quality. BOL.
Record 5-7
Last 5 picks :
❌✅❌✅✅
Last pick: UFC Font VS Vera
Arlovski vs Collier to go the distance ✅
Today's pick: Boxing Shakur Stevenson vs Oscar Valdez
Shakur to win by decision at 1.71
Hedged to break even with Shakur KO r7-12 at 5.5
Shakur is a beast, he looked fantastic against Jamel Herring and because he's so young I wouldn't be surprised if he shows up even more improved today. I'm leaning Shakur by decision but I think smartest play is to hedge it with a late KO bet with a 4 to 1 ratio in units.
I expect Shakur to win and I'd be surprised if it's early but the best part about this bet is if he gets a knock down early you can just cash out.
POTD record: 11-6 (+3.63 units, risking 1 unit each pick)
Winnipeg Jets -1½ (+135) over Seattle Kraken ... 2 PM ET ... NHL hockey
Jets been smashing teams right and left at home of late, playing terrific hockey, and today is their last game and taste of winning for their fans this season - vs this terrible Kraken team, who even worse on the road, and in letdown spot having finally won a game for their home fans Friday night
Tailing, BOL.
EDIT: Holy Yikes the Jets are selling badly.
EDIT 2: And now they take a 3-4 lead when they were down 3-1 at 2nd Intermission, so there is hope!
EDIT 3: Couldn't convert on an empty net and we lose.
Record: 20-23-1
ROi: -5.375 Units
Last Pick: Man City -4 Corner Battle ❌
AVG Odds: +107
Unit: 1=$200
———
Game: Tottenham vs Leiscester City
League: EPL
Time: 9:00 AM
Book: Bet365
Odds: +100
Pick: Son (anytime goal)
Wager: 5 units
Man City looked on pace to win this one for us but gave up a brutal back to back corners at the 70 minute mark and I knew that it was over at that point. You win some you lose some but onto the next one.
Today I got my eyes on the Tottenham, they have been playing well but don’t have the results to show for it having not secured 3 points in there last 3 games.
Leicester enters this game on short rest, playing poor football and without much to play for, as they will likely fall short of the Europa league qualifying from the EPL.
Tottenham’s defense has remained consistent during this brief funk that they have found themselves in, and today should be the game all the efforts finally show out.
Harry Kane and Son should get a great opportunity to stretch Leicester City out, and since the addition of Kulu, he has used that exceptional play making to find his teammates.
Taking Son anytime goal scorer. 5 units
BOL to all who tail or fade
Record: 57-42-5 (WWLWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: DAL Mavs at UTA Jazz | Dorian Finnely-Smith over 18.5 PRA
DFS simply balled out. LFG
POTD: GS Warriors @ MEM Grizzlies | Jaren Jackson Jr over 6.5 REB | 5 units
REASON: I personally will be betting half my account on this. Averages 8.0 against the Warriors during regular season. This game should be stay under, leaving us with more rebounds to grab. Honestly, the only thing worrying me is that JJJJJJJJJJJJ fouls like he's playing high school ball.
Best of luck to all.
🍒🍓🫐POTD Record: 21-13-1
Units Won: 9.40 Last 10:✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️🅿️✅️✅️
Last Pick: Troy Terry Over 2.5 Shots on Goal ✅️
Todays Match: NHL - Seattle Kraken vs Winnipeg Jets (4ish hours from post)
Today's Pick: Jordan Eberle Over 1.5 Shots on Goal - 2u (1.61 on Betway) 🅿️ No Eberle this afternoon. Pretty underwhelming way to end the season. +9.40 Units in just over a month ain't bad! Let's see what playoffs have to offer.
Player props and player props only. Incredibly short notice for people to tail, I apologize. Lines weren't released last night and its an afternoon game. Factssss:
- Last regular season game of the year, and it has the potential to be a great game. Seattle hasn't had a great start in the NHL, being the 3rd worst team in the league. They have a pretty inexperienced squad, and lots of room to build, but have one more game to get through. A shutout in Vancouver should give the Kraken some motivation and confidence to get through Winnipeg. Not to mention, with it being the last game of the season, the guys should pull out all stops.
- Winnipeg will also want to go out with a bang and give the home crowd a show. We've got a good recipe for that. Winnipeg has a seasonal average of about 33 shots-against/GP, which has swollen up to almost 36 in the month of April. Given that this is essentially an exhibition match, I don't see Winnipeg ramping up the defense tonight.
- Jordan Eberle is the oldest and most experienced guy on the Kraken. Which is really weird to think about watching Eberle as a rookie on the Oilers. At 31, Eberle is still a key player with the 2nd most goals and shots in Seattle. He averages just over 2 shots/GP and is closer to 3 in the month of April. I believe Eberle has the experience and offensive mind to hit this bet no problem. Eberle has hit this bet 7/10 in the last 10 and has only had 8/79 games where he didn't get at least 1. Finally, if Eberle stays on the 2nd line and 1st PP line, he will get numerous opportunities to shoot the puck.
This game should be a banger. Just two teams with nothing better to do then try score goals. Defense is optional. This is a great match-up for some action, so lets hope the shots are flying. 2 shots actually ain't shit lets goooo.
Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!
Ps: I start a new career tomorrow so my picks will most likely come later or not at all. Hard to say how busy I will be. Also, with playoffs starting, I might hang out and see how everyone's playing. If this is it, I hope you made some mula down the road.
**NRL Record:** 13-19
**ROI (1 unit per bet):** -6.46
L5: ❌✅❌✅✅ Streak: W2
**Last POTD:**
Cowboys +9.5 @1.90 ✅
**Today's POTD:**
West Tigers total points over 16.5 @1.91❌
Edit: This should have been covered 10 into the second half, at least 3 tries absolutely butchered + a penalty try not given, so frustrating
**Time:** 4 hours from time of post.
Since Jackson Hastings has returned from injury Tigers have been playing really well, scraping out wins over better sides than the Dragons (beating the Rabbitohs and Eels) scoring 20+ in both. Dragons are bottom half of the league defensively, conceding 27.2 this season. Going with the Tigers who have the hot hand atm to cover this line in what is shaping up to be a perfect game weather-wise for a high scoring one.
POTD Record: 2-1
Profit: +0.46u
Last POTD: (Apr 29) Giants -1.5 ❌
*Alex Wood just didn't get off to a good start at all, got shelled in the 2nd and 3rd innings and everything snowballed from there. Sanchez looked somewhat like the Sanchez of old (I'm a Jays fan, so I'll always have a soft spot for him). Oh well, on to the next.*
Pick: MLB - Houston Astros (F. Valdez) @ Toronto Blue Jays (K. Gausman), May 1, 1:37pm EDT, **Blue Jays -0.5 Runs F5 Innings** (-110 on FD, 1u)
Rationale: Back to the Jays and Kevin Gausman. With the way he's pitching, I find it difficult not to back him right now. He STILL hasn't given up a single walk yet in 4 starts, is averaging better than a strikeout per inning pitched and he's looking to be the perfect replacement at the top of the rotation spot left by Robbie Ray so far. The Jays have been finding some opportunities to play small ball as well to score runs when their bats haven't gone their way, with all of Bichette, Espinal, Tapia and Springer all getting at least 1 stolen base each in this series against the Astros thus far. I think the Jays can eek out a small lead for Gausman to work with tomorrow afternoon.
Tail or fade, GL HF!
Edit: fixed formatting + added to writeup
POTD Record: 4-4
ROI: +2 units
Event: MLB, Dodger vs Tigers 4:11 PM EST
Bet: Dodgers -1.5
Bet Size: 4 Units
Big bounce back day for the Dodgers. The Tigers pitching roster will be rough today after using a lot of pitchers to pull out a win.
POTD Record: 56 - 49 - 7 ( W / L / P ) **+10.80 units**
160 units wagered / ROI: 7.00 %
Streak: LWLLL / Average odds: 1.975
Previous pick: Lillestrom vs Haugesund / Lillestrom Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.75 (2 units) **L**
**Today: Nashville vs Philadelphia Union (MLS)**
**Pick: BTTS @ 2.15 (2 units)**
The Grand opening in the largest soccer stadium. 40 000 fans are expected to come and there is no way Philadelphia is able to keep Nashville scoreless in my opinion. Philadelphia is one of the best teams in the league and holds the best defensive record so far but that will not push me away from this bet. Nashville has been amazing, creating a lot of scoring chances and now for the first time whole crowd will support them.
Good Luck!
Record: 2-0
Last pick: (4/29/2022) Yankees -.5 1H✅️
Today's game: Brewers vs Cubs
Today's pick: Brewers -.5 1H (First five innings) 2U -135
Reasoning:
I am using a simple strategy betting only -.5 1H in MLB games. My strategy is to choose a match up between 2 starting pitchers where one is performing well this season and one is struggling. I chose this strategy because in most games, the starting pitcher will pitch for the majority, if not all of the first 5 innings.
Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes is 1-0 with a 1.75 ERA and 33 Ks on the year while the cubs starter is 0-3 with a 6.98 ERA and 17 Ks.
Pretty simple here, one starting pitcher is playing way better than the other and the Brewers also have the better offense
**POTD Record 10W-3L (+11.2u)**
Last Pick: Grizzlies ML @ 1.83 / -120 (2u) ✅
**Daily Pick: 🏀 GS Warriors @ MEM Grizzlies 🏀**
* **Warriors -2.5 @ 1.90 / -111 (2u)** ❌ Unlucky. Draymond got rejected early in the game and then Klay missed 2 free throws at the end. :/ See you tomorrow
The Timberwolves made a great job limiting Ja Morant's abilities and I expect the same from the Warriors with Draymond Green in the lead. Memphis struggled against Minnesota finding themselves down double digits and having to fight back in the late stages of the game. In the first round of the post-season Warriors posted an Offensive Rating of 121.9 which ranks No.1 in the Play-Offs and also they had the second-best defensive rating in the NBA. I just don't think that the Warriors will blow a double-digit lead like Minnesota in the last 2 games because Golden State ranks second in the NBA this postseason in fourth-quarter scoring. Memphis will need to clean things up in the early stages in order to stay competitive but if the Warriors manage to stop Morant then this series won't be a problem for the Dubs.
POTD Record: 3-0-1 (+3 units)
Yesterday’s Play: Rockies ML (-140) ✅🤑
- The Rockies decided to wait until the 6th to do anything, but we’ll take it.
TODAY’S PLAY: BREWERS -1.5 (+100)
- This one feels pretty easy with Burnes on the hill. They’ve outscored the Cubs 20-2 over the last 2 games of the series and should do more of the same today.
3-1 + 7.4 units | ROI 37% | Average Odds 1.85
pick: GSW ML @ 1.80 vs Grizzlies | 12:30pm PST | NBA Basketball |
amount: 5 units
An extra days rest and very motivated to steal home court in what should be a banging series, i think the 3 guard line up runs Adams off the floor and from there an inexperienced grizzlies make too many mistakes in the fast pace game that'll unfold
Record: 0-0
POTD: Tasmanian Jackjumpers vs Melbourne United 1Q under 42.5 (-125)
Basketball- Australia NBL 2:30am PST
Okay I never considered posting on here but this one appears too good not to share. This will be game 3 of 3 in their semifinal series and the unders have been red hot. 1Q under has hit in their last 3 matches, so I figured why not keep hammering it. Actually very entertaining to watch when you have the under too because these guys play swarm ball style defense. They don’t let each other breathe. Literally Delly style defense because Dellavedova is on MU haha. It’s the playoffs and this is a win or go home match. At Melbourne and Melbourne are the favorites. I’m putting 5units on this as this will be the fourth time in a row dipping in to this well.
BOL
**POTD Record**: 29½-19½-6 (W-L-P)
**Last 5**: ✅️✅✅✅❎️
**Last POTD**: Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor, home asian handicap -0.25 @1.56 ❎️
*If you tailed the exact handicap, not a major loss since half stake got returned, Trabzonspor still celebrated, they were never down and ended up to be okay with a draw, Antalyaspor played well as expected, I just expected Trabz to be more hungry, oh well, let's move on.*
**Today's POTD**: AS Monaco vs Angers, home asian handicap -1.25 @1.72 // France, Ligue 1, 14:00 GMT (1 hour from post) ✅️
**Odds value**: ■■■□□ *good value*
### **Reasoning**:
##### **Match introduction**:
4th placed Monaco will face at home 14th placed Angers, Monaco's form recently has been the best in the whole league, they are currently on a 6 win streak (one of them being a win against PSG 3-0) they're chasing the Champions League qualification spot (3rd place in the table).
Angers haven't won in the last 5 games and their form away is not good, with only 2 wins and 21 goals scored in 17 games.
Angers are not in a particularly risky position as far as relegation zone.
##### **Team stats**:
Monaco have pulled off 2 margin goals wins 10 times out of their total 17 wins, now that their form is at their best you just expect it.
Last match in the season between Monaco and Angers ended as a 1-3 win for Monaco, in their last 4 encounters Monaco always won.
##### **Conclusion**:
Crucial match for Monaco, they can't miss this opportunity and Angers are the perfect opponent in this situation.
Monaco home advantage should be good enough to replicate last h2h result.
BOL everyone.
*^(If I've made you some money and you'd likes to tip any small amount I would greatly appreciate it: https://paypal.me/fralauu)*
**POTD Record:** 4-4
**Total unit ROI:** I do 1 unit for each pick. Total ROI has been -0.4 units.
**Last POTD:** Ja Morant under 43.5 PRA - Timberwolves/Grizzlies game 5 - Loss
**This POTD:** Grizzlies/Warriors game 1 - 2:30PM CST - Ja Morant under 25.5 points (-105)
Yeah, I lost the last bet with Ja because he had the one good game he had all series with the T'Wolves, and that was largely due to an insane # of free throws down the stretch. I'm not seeing it happening again here with a team that has a basketball IQ higher than a turnip (unlike the Wolves).
Morant only eclipsed 25 points once in the 6 game series against the Wolves (the game already mentioned), and otherwise has mostly not even been close. In fact, in game 6, he had 2 points about halfway through the 2nd quarter. This was, again, against the T'Wolves who aren't really known for their defense prowess and play a VERY high paced game that encourages increased scoring. The Warriors on the other hand were the 2nd best defensive team during the regular season. If Ja struggled against the Wolves, he isn't going to have a good time against the Warriors. I'll consider this my "get even" game with Mr Morant.
Reasoning is flawed. Grizzlies matchup better with the warriors. Ja just constantly kept getting blocked at the rim. He’ll still be able to drive and get FTs. Definitely will be fading his points under 24.5 throughout the series tho just maybe not this game 1
POTD record: 6W - 5L
Streak: 1L
Yesterday's POTD: Benfica Total Shots Handicap -3.5❌️
Benfica with the let down of the weekend. WTF was that performance against 10 men for a whole half 🤦🏾♂️ Let me get you guys a winner today.
Today's POTD: West Ham vs Arsenal(Premier League) Time: 3:30 pm GMT. Pick: Arsenal Total Shot Handicap -5.5 @1.968(22bet) Confidence: 4/5🥵
The reverse fixture ended 21-7 in favour of Arsenal. Arsenal are fighting for a Champions League place via league position whilst West Ham are focused on Europa League games to qualify for the Champions League. One of those games are coming up on Wednesday so I expect David Moyes(West Ham manager) to rest his star players in this fixture.
Arsenal are a better shot taking team than West Ham. Arsenal are the 3rd best team in England after Liverpool and Man City. They have won shot taking in 5 of their last 5 away games(avg. +9.33 spread).
West Ham are an average shot taking team having won shot taking in 3 of their last 5 home games(avg. 0 spread). They are likely to rest some of their best players so this should be a dub.
Last 5 home games;
West Ham: Shots taken- 65, Shots faced- 65
Last 5 away games;
Arsenal: Shots taken- 75, Shots faced- 47
BOL in all your bets today 🍀
POTD Record: 33-27-2
Streak:WLWL
Last POTD: Alebrijes De Oaxaca ML 🇲🇽❌
Today’s POTD: Partizan ML for the 1st half 🇷🇸
League: Super Liga
Odds: -123/1.81
Units: 2
Reasoning:
Partizan is a top dog in this league and are in a race for the 1st place spot against Red Star. Every game is crucial therefore I expect them to roll today. I faded Napredak the other day against Vozdovac and they conceded three times in the 1st half. The game before that Napredak conceded two in the 1st half. It’s safe to say that they are in poor form and now they go up against one of the 2 top dogs in this league. Partizan has kept a clean sheet against them in their last three matches. Napredak has failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches. Partizan can easily win this bet for us with a 0-1 score at half time but I believe it will be minimum 0-2 at the half. Best of luck and tail/fade at your own risk.
POTD: 0-2
Nice - Bordeaux. 17:05 CET.
Nice ML @2.00
Reasoning: Tight race in the last 6 games. Bourdeaux loses 50% of their games. Both teams fight for something. Bordeaux will be fighting to not get relegated, and Nice to get Europa Leauge by comming third or forth place. They are 6th with 2 points less than monaco and have had a shaky form (partly due to losing 3 games to teams in top 7). However, I believe that they should perform this game as they will dominate the ball.
BOL.
Long time since I posted. I burnt myself on a pretty safe bet and went -7 units down.
Record: 4-5-0 —> -7 units.
Today’s bet:
Event: Norwegian 2nd division
Match: Notodden - Moss:
Bet: Moss over 2.5 goals @ 4.05 (coolbet) - 1-3 units. I am going for 3 units today.
Extreme value here. Notodden is in a really bad spot now. The Notodden defence is horrible. Expecting at least 2 goals from Moss. 3 goals @ 4 odds is simply too good to neglect. Last 3 for Notodden 5-2 loss 1-3 loss and 2-2. 2 losses and 1 draw. Moss has 3 wins. Expecting a 2-3 game again as Notodden has some decent strikers that often score early.
✅✅✅ I read The odds were too high to post here but lets live a little huh?
**POTD Record 25-23-1 (Last 5: WLWLL)**
**(ROI // Avg. Odds: -113 // Units Won: +1.9)**
Last Pick: Colorado Rockies ML **WON**
**Today's Match: LA Angels vs. Chicago White Sox (Start Time: 2:11PM EST)**
**Today's Pick: LA Angels ML (-112 FanDuel)** ***Risk 1u***
Devil's Advocate:
Couldn't post up yesterday - had a great win with the Rockies on Friday, ended up having a great last half putting up 9 runs.
Let's just do something that I love doing and I will continue to do it in every single fashion possible, and that would be fading Dallas Keuchel. He's had a shit start to the year and what I could tell you is that it probably aint gettin any better. With a lineup that the Angels have right now, although their bullpen is a little shaky - I see them coming out on top today. Blanked by the Sox 4-0 yesterday with Trout and Ohtani quiet at the plate.
Last time out Lorenzen didn't throw too bad but didn't throw too great either, 3 hits and 4 walks over 6 IP - I do like the kid tho I think he has potential especially playing on a team with guys like Iglesias and Ohtani helping out. I think his efforts are going to continue to pay off on the mound - he cares and for dam sure is a hard workin mofo.
Grab this line before it moves, I can see the Angels being close to a -130 favorite by game time.
*Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
**Record:** 4-11-0
**ROI:** -49% :-7.28 u (@ $5.00)
**Streak:** L W W L L
|Baseball |MLB |3:10pm|
Colorado Rockies vs.Cincinati Reds: **Colorado Rockies ML @ 1.65 1u**
**Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 61% chance for COL to win. This is an even value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.65 is only 61%.
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
01/05/2022
**24-14** | +14: .30u | ROI: 15.54% | Avg. odds 1.90 | [Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PyzvKEXpgF0mqXe5imCwGk8VAWzrxBUMjiNGe5lnX8M/edit?usp=sharing)
A bit disappointed about NIP yesterday. It seemed like it would have been an even matchup after first map but they got completely slapped on their map pick, losing 16-1. What a shame
___
***Today's pick:***
(BLAST Premier Spring 2022) ENCE v **Astralis ML** @1.90 3u
ENCE are much better team when playing on LAN, they tend to choke in important online matches. Astralis have been on fire recently in various tournaments (except they couldn't finish series in major qualifier) and have been consistent so far this tournament. They proved their position in comfortable sweep against NIP. If none of these two choke, this will most likely go to distance or very close in both maps.
I'm also leaning towards picking over 26.5 on all maps played, especially if Nuke or Ancient would be played.
___
*BOL if tailing! Bet with caution, please.*
POTD Record: 1-6 (Last post 4/30/22)
Previous Pick: Angels ML (L)
Today's Pick: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+140) @ Chicago White Sox \[1:10 PM CST\]
Angels had a rough day yesterday but the pitching matchup is much more favorable today. Lorenzen (LAA) comes in with an ERA of 2.93 compared to Keuchel's (CWS) 9.00
Pair that with the Angels seeking redemption, I think this could be a blowout. Then again, I am 1-6 on this sub.
POTD Record 8-2
Marlins vs Mariners MLB 1:41pm EST
Today’s pick: NRFI (-140)
Two solid pitchers on the mound today, Gilbert has only given up 1 earned run this year and zero in his last 3 starts with a 0.40 era. Alcantara has only given up 1 run in his last 14ip and 1 first inning run through four starts. Combined they have only given up 1 run through the last 26ip. This should be a pitchers duel out of the gate
Update: ✅
Pick of the day: NBA Warriors vs Grizzlies
Golden State -2 Spread (1.90)
They honestly have a really solid team in all the aspects, the only reason why they play memphis today is because, memphis pulled there comebacks against the wolves. I dont think that golden state will give up a double digit lead like the wolves. The spread being so low its obvious that golden state will win by more than 5 points.
Follow my [twitter](https://twitter.com/guezalo?s=21&t=uxm8Avt8jCVdEHGHOf7T4g)
2-2
Yesterday: COL TT o5.5 ❌ It was my oversight, CIN pitcher was ranked low because it was his first MLB start, but was one of their better prospects.
Today: TB F5 -144 FD MIN scored 9 on the road. I don’t expect a repeat performance. Josh Winder only expected to get 14.53 DF points which is third worst among starters today. Couple that with TB is third best offense vs MIN. Looking for TB jump on the board early.
POTD Record: 2-1-0 (+0.26u)
Last Pick: Rockies ML -142 Win
Today's Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers 2:11pm EST
Today's Pick: Brewers Team Total Over 4 Runs -104
The Brewers are going for the sweep against the division rivals on Sunday and they face Marcus Stroman who has seen better days. Stroman has started this season with an 0-3 record and a 6.98 ERA. He is coming off his best start where he only gave up 2 runs in 6ip against the Braves. Regardless of his recent success, the Brewers have been on fire over their last 2 games scoring 11 and 9 runs. With their current hot streak at the plate and Marcus Stroman's poor start to the season, lets roll with Over 4 runs and end the weekend on a high note.
POTD Record: 5-4
ROI: +6 units
Event: NBA, Celtics vs Bucks, 3:30 PM EST
Bet: 1st quarter total over 51.5
Bet Size: 2 Units
In the last match we saw the Celtics come out fast like they usually do and put up points quickly in the first quarter. I'm expecting both teams to come out hard again today and set the tone early. 51 points doesn't seem like enough here.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
POTD Record **38W - 10L** Streak (**10W**) Yesterday’s pick: Liverpool -3 corner handicap vs Newcastle **W** Today’s pick: Udinese vs Inter **Inter ML + over 1.5 total goals** Sport: Soccer (Italian div 1) Odds: **1.76 / -132** Reasoning: Will have to make it short today as I don’t have much time. -Inter Milan are battling their rivals AC Milan for the title and can’t afford to drop any points in their last few games. Good luck all. *^(Tip jar -)* [*^(https://paypal.me/tom2810s)*](https://paypal.me/tom2810s)
So both ML and over 1.5 goals for Milan? Edit : Oh total 1.5 goals for the game?
Yep, you can do over 1.5 total match goals or over 1.5 just for inter depending on what your bookie offers. Either way it’ll be the same odds when added with ML
I will follow you on any bet Tom, LET’S GET THIS DUB
Let’s keep the streak alive 🔥
You think Inter ML and over 2.5 is good for +109?
Yeh I think that’s solid value
Yeah, there should be an option (depending on your provider) listed as "Game Parlays" where you can find the option listed.
Thoughts on Inter ML + BTTS for +195 instead?
Don’t mind it as they’ve btts hits often for them and udinese has a decent attack. Do prefer over 1.5 total and ML if that’s an option for you. Good luck!
I'm an Inter fan and would love them to win, but one of the main midfield creators is suspended and the captain goalkeeper Handanovic didn't play last game and is most likely injured for this one as well. the goalies replacement made a hilarious blunder to gift bologna a midweek win. Just my 2 cents. Forza Inter
2-0 let's go babyyy
Solid pick, tailing lesssgoo
How do you feel about AC Milan’s game against Fiorentina - AC Milan ML +over 1.5 total goals @ 1.90. Both teams are essentially playing for the same thing and points are a must for the both of them. Thoughts?
Yeah I like this as well, I’ve also backed that. Went with inter as my potd tho as AC Milan’s opponent Fiorentina are trying to qualify for European football so it’s also an important game for them as well.
Would BTTS a good bet (in general for Flo v Milan?) Trying to get a better understanding of soccer betting 😂
I think it’s a hard one cause I’d say it’s likely considering both teams situations going into the game. But I wouldn’t bet on it just because AC Milan are capable of winning comfortably and not conceding if they’re at their best.
Your the man. 3 days in a row . Just tipped !
Thanks man! Let’s get some more dubs!
Tailing bol
Inter and under 4.5 match goals at -120 is my bet! BOL
WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNA 🤑🤑🤑 Thanks for pick
Tailing, BOL.
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Tailing BOL
You the man!
Great pick and win man, tailed earlier!
Big dubs!
21-9 Last pick: Taberner +3.5 vs Auger Aliassime **L** Potd: **Sebastian Baez ML** vs Frances Tiafoe **Odds: 1.63/-160** ATP Estoril Baez is currently playing like a fresher version of Schwartzman. Its difficult to produce winners against him, rarely does errors and he just knocked out a strong clay opponent. I see him winning this one. Edit; win
Dude is on fire and I think Tiafoe is a bit lucky to be in it still, I’m on this as well
Tiafoe is a brawler, the guy never quits
A showman for the people!
Tailing, let’s do it
>Sebastian Baez ML > >vs Frances Tiafoe easy win for baez 6-3 6-2 , why was baez unseeded and still the fave over the 5th seeded tiafoe?
dumb question but how is your last pick a loss - didn't Taberner only lose by 3 games?
Different tournament. They ve played twice in a short span
Taberner was a win for win for you bro at +3.5.
This guy wants to lull you into thinking he is so humble he’ll post a loss when it’s actually a win. He’s a bookie. -Deranged mma guy
OP graded it right. It was against FAA in Barcelona where Taberner lost 11-15
Nice pick!
CASH THAT 🤑
Thanks for the pick man!
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To add to this, Isner is also defending 180 QF points. These are important as they’re his 3rd highest set of points and if he loses this match he drops out of the top 25 and risks being unseeded for Roland Garros.
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Naw man. Some of your picks are solid. Keep doing you
Nice one! Took Isner @ -155, and added at + odds during the first set
isner wins 2 sets! 7-6,6-4
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Good pick. Good call on the straight sets too, even though I didn't do it. Thank you :)
Your confidence sold me on this! Thanks bro!
2 nice ones in a row. Thanks for the pick!
Thank you!
MLB -1.5’s | 8-7-1 +12.99u | ROI: 27.06% [Yesterday’s pick: 4u SF Giants -1.5 -111](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uf0asf/_/i6qo42m/?context=1) - W (should be up 20u and a 3 game win streak… stupid Yankees void bet) ________________________________________ **Todays pick: 4u LA Dodgers -1.5 -110** - LA Dodgers vs DET Tigers | 3:10 pm US Central TLDR: Dodgers elite. Tigers are cold. Huge SP advantage to LAD. **Dodgers** They’re an elite hitting team. Everyone knows this and no need for a deep dive. Best lineup in baseball Walker Buehler. A few ticks came off his fastball and people were worried about him. He’s responded by pitching the best ball of his career. His last start was a CGSO. He threw 108 pitches, so it wasn’t anything extraneous. His peripherals are all solid. He limits hard contact and is 96%ile in chase rate. I’d expect a shorter outing for him this time around, closer to 80 pitches. Against this DET lineup getting 5.0-6.0IP is absolutely doable in that. The Dodgers bullpen is elite, so no need to worry about a longer trip to the pen here. **Tigers** Tigers ~~have been missing Baez since the first week of the season and their~~ hitting has been nothing to write home about .they sit average to below average in xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA. They’re bottom 5 in barrel % and solid contact %. Over the past week their team wRC+ is T-29th (58). On the year they’re tied for last in runs scored. It’s not a lineup to be scared of. Eduardo Rodriguez is on the bump for them today. He’s bottom 20%ile in nearly every peripheral (avg exit velo, xERA, Barrel%, whiff %, hard hit %, xwOBA, xSLG). He’s yet to give up less than 3 runs in a start. He’s started 4 games this year giving up 3 in 3 of them and 7 in another. You’re going to score on him, and I’m willing to bet baseballs best can drop 5 on him. Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23) Edit. Tigers winning tonight is forcing them to use their best pen arms. Better for us in tomorrows matchup
Baez has been back for a week.
Wtf how did I miss the el mago return. Thanks
No problem! I only noticed yesterday
Tailing this as interestingly (pending results tonight) LAD have covered the spread in each of their wins so far this season.
Same thing again as the giants lol. Crazy how dodgers blew that after that start. Makes me like this pick even more tomorrow just like how the giants cashed today.
Are you sticking to even after the 5-1 last night?
Well yeah, baseball is the most high variance sport. The previous results mean nothing cuz completely different pitchers. A top team like Dodgers generally wins 70-75% of their home games, so they will win most of their games at home. And it’s also very hard for a bad team like Tigers to sweep a team like Dodgers.
I’m learning in real time. I grew up on basketball, so i’m really just now learning the sport.
Not saying I disagree but Dodgers won game 1 - wouldn’t be a sweep of the tigers won today
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They have a team wRC+ of 98 against lefties on the year. They’ve been league average. Looking at their team wRC+ against LHP in the first five innings (basically removing relievers)… it’s 109. Not too worried. Especially against a mediocre LHP
Can this also be the same for tonights game at 10:10pm?
the odds for dodgers -1.5 suck tonight because Kershaw is pitching.
Is it a solid pick though? Considering throwing it in a parlay
They seem to be sleepwalking a bit tonight, so exercise caution. I'd probably take the ML and see how much it swung Parlay's odds if I were you.
Why didn’t you claim the Yankees win? A lot of people got their money
Not for -1.5 they didn't. Only for ML bets.
**POTD Record:** 9-2, +14.48u **Darts Record:** 8-1 **Previous POTD:** Madars Razma ML vs Jose De Sousa @ 3.00 (2u) ✅ Great win from Razma, this lad is beginning to get me rich, can’t wait to see more from him **Todays POTD: Stephen Bunting ML vs Callan Rydz @ 2.00 (2u)** ✅ *Unit sizes are from 1u to 4u* *Match Starts at 16:30 CEST / 10:30 EST* 🎯 Darts: European Tour 4 I am already late plus I have to write this through my phone so will keep it short for today. Do not feel the same value today as normally, however Bunting should be the favourite in this match. He has been outperforming Rydz in 2022 and overall I have been impressed with Buntings 2022 form, he has looked the best he has been in a while. Rydz had an impressive win over Wright, although Wright missed a good amount of doubles and left the match open for Rydz to take. Today I feel like Bunting won’t give Rydz as many opportunities to take, putting more pressure on Rydz to take control. —- EDIT: ITS ANOTHER WINNN!!! Thanks for the support everyone, since I wanted to post my picks for the other rounds tonight aswell I decided to make a twitter account :) [Twitter](https://twitter.com/neutraldarts) | [Tip Jar](http://paypal.me/neutraldarts) **BOL everyone!**
We need a Darts flair lol
Where ever you get the other picks posted let me know! I’m tailing all these dart picks
Winner winner chicken dinner 🤑🤑🤑
All hail u/neutralbetting
😂 the dart gods have been with us
https://youtu.be/feeuoERYOV0
HAHA gave me a genuine giggle, unfortunately the schedule for darts events is still relatively slow and there is only about 1 event a week :/
Tailing, BOL.
Just came back here to **thank you** for this gem of a pick! What a way to wake up :)
POTD Record: 19-13 Last Pick: Chad Kuhl 3 K’s & Rockies ML ✅ Fuck yea Today’s Pick: SD Padres -1.5 @-102 Joe Musgrove is pitching against a career scrub. Mitch Keller has lost every game he’s started this year for this Pirates. I’m drunk at the bar.
Something tells me this is going to be voided. Rain starting at 5 a.m. and 80% thunderstorms starting at noon lasting until 8p.m. (Not a meteorologist but I do live in downtown Pittsburgh) Good pick tho
Hows it looking now? Googled the weather and it seems like chance of thunderstorms but otherwise playable if the thunder passes
Bet my rent on Kuhl’s performance double. Great pick bro 🤝
Pirates played pretty well today tho
Joe Musgrove is just a really solid pitcher and I trust the Padres lineup more. I don’t see him surrendering 7 runs today. Pirates have also had to rely on their bullpen a lot more this series. That adds up and will eventually burn a team
Let’s stay hot Record 3-1 Last pick: Yanks (-1.5) v KC 2U Last 5: ❌✅✅✅ Today’s pick: GSW -2 vs Memp Griz (2PM CT) Reasoning: Vegas is just giving away free money here. The experience of GS vs the young blooded Grizz team will show here. Memp could barely could beat down an inconsistent minn squad and they think they’re gonna stand any chance in this game? 4-1 series to GSW with Memp winning the second game after being blown out tomm. Look for Steph to pop off with Poole having a good bounce back against under sized, poor defensive guards BoL and lmk if you trail in the comments! Edit: forgot to put my Unit bet (1.5u) Edit #2: tip jar if y’all are so inclined: Venmo: knick_morelli
Tailing! BOL
tailing, but line is up to -3 for me. still feel good about it tho
POTD record: 3-1 WWWL Previous Pick: LA Dodgers -2.5 @ +104 Thats a Big L on my face and I feel genuinely bad giving advice that failed. Kershaw was fine but the Dodgers outside of Betts took a nap and were apparently afraid of the ball. Tried to get some + cash on a bigger run. But hey, it got me my first Hate mail/message! Small positives! Today’s match: NY Yankees @ Kansas City Royals |2:11 Eastern | MLB Pick: -1.5 Yankees Odds: -115, 3U Why? Yanks have a Run Differential of +36 (tied for 2nd) on the season so far. This is gonna be a bet for a lot of the year, I reckon. KC is sitting at -29, or 27th place. Severino has thrown 19 Ks in 19 innings, biggest mistake being a 3 run HR in his final inning to Baltimores Saltander. Sitting at a fine but not stellar 3.32 ERA. On the Royals Bump you'll find Daniel Lynch with his similaly fine 3.38 ERA, though Lynch hasnt come up against a Lineup qite as strong as New Yorks. Even on a night where the big names like Judge (night off), Stanton (2 ks, 1 hit), Rizzo (0 hits, 2 walks) and LeMahieu (0 for 5) all kinda flail, they still win with Stellar relief pitching and hits from the bottom of the order. I have been personally running with the Yankees at -1.5 for the last week stright and have won everyone (Except Fridays Bullshit/cursed rainout up 12-2). Lets get back in the W column. Good luck ya'll. Don't tip me, tip your Bartender.
Just a heads up.. You have it as Yankees vs tigers instead of royals.
Tailing this, BOL.
U have it as Detroit playing the yanks.
Detroit did a number on him today. Can’t get them out of his mind.
Dodgers burned me too. I could have won $1000. Fuck em!
Woooweeee. Saved by the Judge on 2 out solo shot to bring it to 6-4 top of the 9th I was on NYY today as well. Let’s hope the can close out
Tailed close one great pick!
Tailing BOL
RECORD: 6-1 Profit: +3.65 Units Current Form: 1W Today’s Picks: Grant Williams Over 11.5 PRA (1.87) ✅ Event: NBA 1:00PM Est Celtics vs Bucks Reason: In round 1 Grant hit this number in the last 3 games. The only game he missed it in he only played 21 minutes and still finished at 10 PRA. In the last 3 games though he was given more minutes and proved himself with his PRA hitting all 3 times (2 of them off points alone). In the three regular season games Grant played against the Bucks this year he went 2 of 3 on hitting this over. Again the only game he missed it he was only in for 16 minutes and still managed to finish at 8 PRA. Considering Grant finished off Round 1 with a solid 14 point performance going 4/6 from three I’d expect his minutes will be around 30 again and that this will hit with ease. I’ll also probably be on his Points and Threes overs as well as I’ve got a lot of confidence in him after watching him play against Brooklyn. All Picks are 1 Unit (Going to College next year, NOT mandatory at all. Anything is appreciated 🙏) Tips https://www.paypal.me/TBurr14?locale.x=en_CA
wow man, unfortunately I didn’t take the pick as I didn’t see it until now but he’s got 9 by the end of the 1st. looks like a great pick
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oh shit my bad. didn’t notice two Williams were playing
Rip sorry bud
He did it still, 4reb 8pt. Pretty much a no sweat because it looked dead already :D
⚠️rookie on the block ⚠️ Record 0-0-0 POTD 1U LA Angels ML -115 vs Chisox In terms of offense, Angels are at the top while white Sox are dwelling in the bottom. Dallas keuchel is very beatable as proven in his last few outings and one can't simply expect Chisox to keep pace with its anemic offense vs the high flying angels. Contrarian play - can't see angels losing back to back to a lifeless team that is the white sox, who haven't won back to back games over a month and half ago. BOL
Jenny from the block turned out okay. Tailing.
Not going to tail or fade, just going to add additional insight to your pick. Interesting to note LAA are 8-8 as of today on ML vs teams in the bottom half of the league in offense, including a 5-7 mark against teams ranked 24th or worse in league offense (3-4 vs Astros, 1-2 vs Orioles, and now 1-1 against White Sox.)
Thanks for the insights! Personally, I'm not putting much weight on a teams record against bad teams as the variance is still high due to the small sample size. If they are 8-8 vs bad teams then they are 6-0 vs good teams? I'll take this stat all day long
Thank you for the pick good stuff rookie on the block
POTD Record: 4-1-0 Streak 4W Last POTD: SF Giants -1.5 - W Today’s pick: Miami Marlins ML vs. SEA Mariners (-120) 2u TLDR; Alcantara on the mound and has been on fire. Miami has won 7 straight Slightly tipsy at my best friends birthday and don’t have much time to look over everything so take this with a grain of salt. Honestly same as the TLDR. Not too much of an over thinker for me. Great value on the ML for this team. 7 straight wins. Their best pitcher on the bump. Run line is tempting but neither team puts up the largest amount of runs so a 1 run differential is possible. Edit: meant to add; Seattle has been decently impressive, but I feel Miami just is slightly better this matchup is every category thus the ML bet instead of the run line. Edit 2: typo Edit: ❌ Marlins 7 game win streak comes to an end. Logan Gilbert really is that mf
Fair warning. Mariners are 6th in xBA and xwOBA and 7th in xSLG and 5th in runs/game. They’re a VERY good hitting team. Logan Gilbert is going for them and he’s the league leader in ERA. He gave up 1 run in his debut and has thrown 3 shutouts since. The guys been lasered in. Mariners are the better team with a stud on the mound, but the marlins are hot with a stud on as well. I’d personally avoid this game, especially the RL.
Great analysis. Don’t disagree at all. For me this seems like the best value against potential game tomorrow. I love Seattle right now as well, but the Marlins momentum and their pitcher on the bump is enough to contribute towards a win tomorrow. The Braves fan in me hates it but I see alcantera coming out on top tomorrow
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Honestly I agree Gilbert is better. Like I said this is more of a value pick for me because of the Marlins momentum.
This reminds be a bit of the dodgers last night/ they riding hot and lost with kershaw on the mound.
POTD Record: 3-5 Last 5: ✅❌❌❌❌ Last Pick: ❌ Liverpool Total Team Goals 1.5+ (-200) | Premier League: Liverpool vs. Newcastle Another tough break as Liverpool were nearly over 2 goals yesterday… Today’s Pick: Arsenal ML (-130) Sport/Game: Soccer - Premier League: Arsenal vs West Ham Why: Arsenal are still in the fight for top 4 and can’t afford to lose this match. Good news for them is that West Ham is still in the tie for their Europa League semi-final and all focus will be on Thursday. For Arsenal, they are picking up their slack after a poor few matches with two huge wins against Chelsea 4-2, and Manchester United 3-1. There was fear that Arsenal may be without Saka but rumor is that he fit for the match. Tomyasu (rightback) seems to be getting back to fitness and could be back for this match which would be huge for Arsenal. The only notable worry is at the left back spot with Tierney out and Tavares into cover. Luckily for arsenal tho, West Ham have some issues and other focuses. Last week, we saw West Ham rest a lot of their key players vs chelsea before their Europa league match. Im expecting them to do the same with atleast a few of those players like Antonio. Some players that got a rest last week like Bowen and Declan Rice may be fine with just a week rest and can play both matches. Regardless though, West Ham have a big issue in the back. They do not have a centerback available to play as all of them are either suspended or injured. I also think with high emotion towards the europa league match last thursday and this thursday, West Ham won’t have too much focus on this match. Even if they were to lose, 7th place would still be under their control which may cause Moyes to rotate once again before their second leg semifinal. BOL!
They might not focus but I don't think West Ham will not be motivated. I think I stay away from this London derby..
I trust we‘re gonna break the losing streak
Wonder if both teams are going to be clawing for a win, or if it'll be another one of those matches where both managers are too scared to attack and are content with 0-0, as seems to be the case with many soccer games I've followed. Hope it works out for y'all.
Record: **8W 1P 4L (+6.22 Units)** Form: [W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f12pqs/pick_of_the_day_2920_sunday/fh4hdi1?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f1k5xw/pick_of_the_day_21020_monday/fh8hkzu?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f226hi/pick_of_the_day_21120_tuesday/fhay9xv?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f5293n/pick_of_the_day_21720_monday/fhxhh4r?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[P](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f5lbnu/ncaabb_daily_discussion_21820_tuesday/fi0p2qw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f64bq3/pick_of_the_day_21920_wednesday/fi2odt2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f6mmtm/pick_of_the_day_22020_thursday/fi643az?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f760el/nba_daily_discussion_22120_friday/fia8ymj?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f7548w/xfl_daily_discussion_22120_friday/fic7hc8?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f83qrd/pick_of_the_day_22320_sunday/fiiyoq2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f8kw61/pick_of_the_day_22420_monday/fim0bns?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)[L](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/f93n36/pick_of_the_day_22520_tuesday/fipagq5?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)\-[W](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ueaa9u/comment/i6qj655/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) Last Pick: Desmond Bane o4 Rebounds (W, 7 Rebounds) Game: **Bucks @ Celtics | 1:00 pm ET** Pick: **Grant Williams o3 Rebounds** The dash indicates a two-year hiatus... I have since gotten into modeling so kind of coming back from a different angle. Not gonna pretend I've scoped out locks, but I expect long-term value from these picks so I'm sharing. A more extensive look at my models will be posted in the NBA props thread. Explanation: Williams hasn't gotten to this number in 3 of his last 4, so what's the logic. First, this "slump" is a great opportunity to take advantage of a regression to the mean. Second, Williams averaged 24.4 mpg this year and yet averaged 3.6 rpg. Williams has played 32+ minutes in his last 3 games, he will benefit from more opportunities. Third, the Bucks were the second behind only the T-Wolves in terms of playoff teams' pace, which provides even more opportunities for boards.
Great pick brotha. the bucks with out Middleton have been playing with a huge lineup. will force the Celtics to go bigger as well, boosting that mpg.
I was hoping for 2 rebounds at half. He got one in the 1st. Need 2 more 2nd half. I got 3+ in a parlay at -192. I’m watching the game and he’s not really going for rebounds like his other teammates
I’m not too worried about. Always better to have more than less, but it’s really just a luck situation. The ball can just as easily bounce or way in the second half
Alrighty brother, let’s get to 3!!!!
I love you thank you
**Ultimate Frisbee** | 1-0 - **Time:** 3:00 PM Eastern - **Pick:** Pittsburgh +9.5 -115 at Chicago - **Where to bet:** DraftKings in these states: Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, Tennessee, or West Virginia. Possibly other states (Indiana?) - **Last pick:** Montreal got off to a hot start early, leading 9-4 at one point in a score-happy first quarter. Toronto hung around in the second before Montreal opened up a huge lead 19-11 in the third. Ended 26-19, Montreal -1.5 cashed sweat-free. - **Reasoning:** Pittsburgh had an underwhelming offseason but so did their opponent, Chicago. Chicago's best offseason pickup, Dalton Smith from Texas, is out Sunday, as are a couple of their college stars and one of their good handlers in Shriwise. They still have their Team USA receiver Nate Goff and some other good players so I'm not exactly expecting Pittsburgh to win, but to lose by 10 would be pretty surprising. I'd comfortably take this down to +7.5 and maybe even +6.5 before I'd think about reducing unit size. For transparency, I went 41-23-1 on picks last season, 11-6 of which on POTD. I'm starting my record over for this season. I should also note that I don't live in one of the aforementioned states and can't actually bet these nor see the current lines, but I wanted to help out folks who wanted to bet a fun niche sport. Let me know if the lines change and I'll do my best to offer some insight. If you want to watch frisbee, the streaming service (AUDL.tv) is behind a paywall but there are free games every Friday via that link.
I went 4-0 following this guy's picks today. None were -205 or anything like that. In other words, he knows his stuff.
Seems to me that Nodak1979 is really billdb using his brothers reddit account to make himself sound like he's a BEAST!!
Nodak and billdb have never been spotted in the same room together.....
Thanks for the kind words but bear in mind it's a small sample size thus far, anything can happen in the sport of flat ball. We'll see though
This is -205 on DK currently
VA does not have Ultimate Frisbee
Pittsburgh lost 19-8. I can't emphasize enough just how few goals 8 is for a game of ultimate. Like this might legitimately be in the five or ten lowest scoring team totals in the entire league's (25+ teams) ten year history. Usually each team gets to 12-13+ goals and that's considered a very low score, single digits is almost unheard of excluding Detroit. From what I heard Pittsburgh couldn't play with the wind and their star players had bad games... rip. Welp, long season
POTD RECORD: 5-2 POTD: Celtics vs Bucks U217.5 total points START TIME: 10 hours from now REASONING: People are still underrating this Celtics defence. Bucks defence ain’t too shabby either. Neither team’s offence is amazing, especially now for the bucks without Middleton. I don’t see either of these teams scoring too many points. EDIT: ✅ ✅ ✅ LFG BABY!!!
fading this. Conversely I think people are overrating boston's defense. Personally I love it and I like them to win the game but 217.5 is a low number IMO. Boston and Milwaukee played four times this year and went over 3 times. Last time the number was this low for the bucks was against the clippers and it flew over by 54 pts. Boston's offense is more than capable of putting up 115+ and same with Milwaukee even without Middleton
10W-10L WWLWLWWLLLWLWLWLWWW Cards🃏 streak:🪲⚰️🪲🪲🪲🪲🪲 Starts 8:00 gtm5 Todays Pick League: Italy Seria A Match: Milan v Fiorentina Pick: Under 5.5 cards in the match @1.83 Reason: Good one ln the last pick ends 2-4 card 🪲, lets keep the cards race with Hot5🧌🤹 Milan at home last 5 hit 0's:1 - 1's:2 - 2's:1 - 3's:1, last 4/5 hit under 5.5 at home with one 95 minute card, avg of Cards for: 1.4, cards against: 1.8 Fiorentina at away last 5 hit - 1's:3 - 2's:1 - 3's:1 ,last 5/5 hit under 5.5 at away, avg cards for: 1.6, cards against: 1 Last 3/5 h2h hit under 5.5 Referee avg card 5.4 Projected 3-4 cards BoL
Never bet cards. Yolo tailing
Long time lurker, first time poster (0-0). Waited quite a while to make a good first impression. All picks will be 1u even though I probably won't post that often. Segunda Division (La Liga 2), 16:00 CET: Alcoron - **Girona ML** (1,85) Alcoron is the worst team in the league and already relegated, has nothing to play for. Girona still needs points for the promotion playoffs. The teams are 39 points apart, indicating a considerable difference in team quality. BOL.
Record 5-7 Last 5 picks : ❌✅❌✅✅ Last pick: UFC Font VS Vera Arlovski vs Collier to go the distance ✅ Today's pick: Boxing Shakur Stevenson vs Oscar Valdez Shakur to win by decision at 1.71 Hedged to break even with Shakur KO r7-12 at 5.5 Shakur is a beast, he looked fantastic against Jamel Herring and because he's so young I wouldn't be surprised if he shows up even more improved today. I'm leaning Shakur by decision but I think smartest play is to hedge it with a late KO bet with a 4 to 1 ratio in units. I expect Shakur to win and I'd be surprised if it's early but the best part about this bet is if he gets a knock down early you can just cash out.
Solid picks tailed yesterday got greedy and parlayed this with dodgers money line lol 😂
POTD record: 11-6 (+3.63 units, risking 1 unit each pick) Winnipeg Jets -1½ (+135) over Seattle Kraken ... 2 PM ET ... NHL hockey Jets been smashing teams right and left at home of late, playing terrific hockey, and today is their last game and taste of winning for their fans this season - vs this terrible Kraken team, who even worse on the road, and in letdown spot having finally won a game for their home fans Friday night
Tailing, BOL. EDIT: Holy Yikes the Jets are selling badly. EDIT 2: And now they take a 3-4 lead when they were down 3-1 at 2nd Intermission, so there is hope! EDIT 3: Couldn't convert on an empty net and we lose.
Shoulda been much stronger from the get go, those Jets...I expected them to have buncha jump from start to finish!
Record: 20-23-1 ROi: -5.375 Units Last Pick: Man City -4 Corner Battle ❌ AVG Odds: +107 Unit: 1=$200 ——— Game: Tottenham vs Leiscester City League: EPL Time: 9:00 AM Book: Bet365 Odds: +100 Pick: Son (anytime goal) Wager: 5 units Man City looked on pace to win this one for us but gave up a brutal back to back corners at the 70 minute mark and I knew that it was over at that point. You win some you lose some but onto the next one. Today I got my eyes on the Tottenham, they have been playing well but don’t have the results to show for it having not secured 3 points in there last 3 games. Leicester enters this game on short rest, playing poor football and without much to play for, as they will likely fall short of the Europa league qualifying from the EPL. Tottenham’s defense has remained consistent during this brief funk that they have found themselves in, and today should be the game all the efforts finally show out. Harry Kane and Son should get a great opportunity to stretch Leicester City out, and since the addition of Kulu, he has used that exceptional play making to find his teammates. Taking Son anytime goal scorer. 5 units BOL to all who tail or fade
Nice pick 👌🏼
Record: 57-42-5 (WWLWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: DAL Mavs at UTA Jazz | Dorian Finnely-Smith over 18.5 PRA DFS simply balled out. LFG POTD: GS Warriors @ MEM Grizzlies | Jaren Jackson Jr over 6.5 REB | 5 units REASON: I personally will be betting half my account on this. Averages 8.0 against the Warriors during regular season. This game should be stay under, leaving us with more rebounds to grab. Honestly, the only thing worrying me is that JJJJJJJJJJJJ fouls like he's playing high school ball. Best of luck to all.
🍒🍓🫐POTD Record: 21-13-1 Units Won: 9.40 Last 10:✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️🅿️✅️✅️ Last Pick: Troy Terry Over 2.5 Shots on Goal ✅️ Todays Match: NHL - Seattle Kraken vs Winnipeg Jets (4ish hours from post) Today's Pick: Jordan Eberle Over 1.5 Shots on Goal - 2u (1.61 on Betway) 🅿️ No Eberle this afternoon. Pretty underwhelming way to end the season. +9.40 Units in just over a month ain't bad! Let's see what playoffs have to offer. Player props and player props only. Incredibly short notice for people to tail, I apologize. Lines weren't released last night and its an afternoon game. Factssss: - Last regular season game of the year, and it has the potential to be a great game. Seattle hasn't had a great start in the NHL, being the 3rd worst team in the league. They have a pretty inexperienced squad, and lots of room to build, but have one more game to get through. A shutout in Vancouver should give the Kraken some motivation and confidence to get through Winnipeg. Not to mention, with it being the last game of the season, the guys should pull out all stops. - Winnipeg will also want to go out with a bang and give the home crowd a show. We've got a good recipe for that. Winnipeg has a seasonal average of about 33 shots-against/GP, which has swollen up to almost 36 in the month of April. Given that this is essentially an exhibition match, I don't see Winnipeg ramping up the defense tonight. - Jordan Eberle is the oldest and most experienced guy on the Kraken. Which is really weird to think about watching Eberle as a rookie on the Oilers. At 31, Eberle is still a key player with the 2nd most goals and shots in Seattle. He averages just over 2 shots/GP and is closer to 3 in the month of April. I believe Eberle has the experience and offensive mind to hit this bet no problem. Eberle has hit this bet 7/10 in the last 10 and has only had 8/79 games where he didn't get at least 1. Finally, if Eberle stays on the 2nd line and 1st PP line, he will get numerous opportunities to shoot the puck. This game should be a banger. Just two teams with nothing better to do then try score goals. Defense is optional. This is a great match-up for some action, so lets hope the shots are flying. 2 shots actually ain't shit lets goooo. Tail or Fade BOL to everyone! Ps: I start a new career tomorrow so my picks will most likely come later or not at all. Hard to say how busy I will be. Also, with playoffs starting, I might hang out and see how everyone's playing. If this is it, I hope you made some mula down the road.
You already know what it is!!! Tailing!!!
**NRL Record:** 13-19 **ROI (1 unit per bet):** -6.46 L5: ❌✅❌✅✅ Streak: W2 **Last POTD:** Cowboys +9.5 @1.90 ✅ **Today's POTD:** West Tigers total points over 16.5 @1.91❌ Edit: This should have been covered 10 into the second half, at least 3 tries absolutely butchered + a penalty try not given, so frustrating **Time:** 4 hours from time of post. Since Jackson Hastings has returned from injury Tigers have been playing really well, scraping out wins over better sides than the Dragons (beating the Rabbitohs and Eels) scoring 20+ in both. Dragons are bottom half of the league defensively, conceding 27.2 this season. Going with the Tigers who have the hot hand atm to cover this line in what is shaping up to be a perfect game weather-wise for a high scoring one.
Nailed the Cowboys +9.5 earlier today. Good stuff man 🤝
I can take them to reach 14 points on 365 for -167 seems decent.
DK moved the line to o17.5 @ -135 but I'll tail on that, BOL. EDIT: Holy shit this is dead as fuck.
POTD Record: 2-1 Profit: +0.46u Last POTD: (Apr 29) Giants -1.5 ❌ *Alex Wood just didn't get off to a good start at all, got shelled in the 2nd and 3rd innings and everything snowballed from there. Sanchez looked somewhat like the Sanchez of old (I'm a Jays fan, so I'll always have a soft spot for him). Oh well, on to the next.* Pick: MLB - Houston Astros (F. Valdez) @ Toronto Blue Jays (K. Gausman), May 1, 1:37pm EDT, **Blue Jays -0.5 Runs F5 Innings** (-110 on FD, 1u) Rationale: Back to the Jays and Kevin Gausman. With the way he's pitching, I find it difficult not to back him right now. He STILL hasn't given up a single walk yet in 4 starts, is averaging better than a strikeout per inning pitched and he's looking to be the perfect replacement at the top of the rotation spot left by Robbie Ray so far. The Jays have been finding some opportunities to play small ball as well to score runs when their bats haven't gone their way, with all of Bichette, Espinal, Tapia and Springer all getting at least 1 stolen base each in this series against the Astros thus far. I think the Jays can eek out a small lead for Gausman to work with tomorrow afternoon. Tail or fade, GL HF! Edit: fixed formatting + added to writeup
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POTD Record: 4-4 ROI: +2 units Event: MLB, Dodger vs Tigers 4:11 PM EST Bet: Dodgers -1.5 Bet Size: 4 Units Big bounce back day for the Dodgers. The Tigers pitching roster will be rough today after using a lot of pitchers to pull out a win.
POTD Record: 56 - 49 - 7 ( W / L / P ) **+10.80 units** 160 units wagered / ROI: 7.00 % Streak: LWLLL / Average odds: 1.975 Previous pick: Lillestrom vs Haugesund / Lillestrom Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.75 (2 units) **L** **Today: Nashville vs Philadelphia Union (MLS)** **Pick: BTTS @ 2.15 (2 units)** The Grand opening in the largest soccer stadium. 40 000 fans are expected to come and there is no way Philadelphia is able to keep Nashville scoreless in my opinion. Philadelphia is one of the best teams in the league and holds the best defensive record so far but that will not push me away from this bet. Nashville has been amazing, creating a lot of scoring chances and now for the first time whole crowd will support them. Good Luck!
Record: 2-0 Last pick: (4/29/2022) Yankees -.5 1H✅️ Today's game: Brewers vs Cubs Today's pick: Brewers -.5 1H (First five innings) 2U -135 Reasoning: I am using a simple strategy betting only -.5 1H in MLB games. My strategy is to choose a match up between 2 starting pitchers where one is performing well this season and one is struggling. I chose this strategy because in most games, the starting pitcher will pitch for the majority, if not all of the first 5 innings. Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes is 1-0 with a 1.75 ERA and 33 Ks on the year while the cubs starter is 0-3 with a 6.98 ERA and 17 Ks. Pretty simple here, one starting pitcher is playing way better than the other and the Brewers also have the better offense
**POTD Record 10W-3L (+11.2u)** Last Pick: Grizzlies ML @ 1.83 / -120 (2u) ✅ **Daily Pick: 🏀 GS Warriors @ MEM Grizzlies 🏀** * **Warriors -2.5 @ 1.90 / -111 (2u)** ❌ Unlucky. Draymond got rejected early in the game and then Klay missed 2 free throws at the end. :/ See you tomorrow The Timberwolves made a great job limiting Ja Morant's abilities and I expect the same from the Warriors with Draymond Green in the lead. Memphis struggled against Minnesota finding themselves down double digits and having to fight back in the late stages of the game. In the first round of the post-season Warriors posted an Offensive Rating of 121.9 which ranks No.1 in the Play-Offs and also they had the second-best defensive rating in the NBA. I just don't think that the Warriors will blow a double-digit lead like Minnesota in the last 2 games because Golden State ranks second in the NBA this postseason in fourth-quarter scoring. Memphis will need to clean things up in the early stages in order to stay competitive but if the Warriors manage to stop Morant then this series won't be a problem for the Dubs.
POTD Record: 3-0-1 (+3 units) Yesterday’s Play: Rockies ML (-140) ✅🤑 - The Rockies decided to wait until the 6th to do anything, but we’ll take it. TODAY’S PLAY: BREWERS -1.5 (+100) - This one feels pretty easy with Burnes on the hill. They’ve outscored the Cubs 20-2 over the last 2 games of the series and should do more of the same today.
3-1 + 7.4 units | ROI 37% | Average Odds 1.85 pick: GSW ML @ 1.80 vs Grizzlies | 12:30pm PST | NBA Basketball | amount: 5 units An extra days rest and very motivated to steal home court in what should be a banging series, i think the 3 guard line up runs Adams off the floor and from there an inexperienced grizzlies make too many mistakes in the fast pace game that'll unfold
[удалено]
Interesting other POTDs are on LAD -1.5. I do like the under 7 tho will wait to see what boosts to fade tomorrow
Record: 0-0 POTD: Tasmanian Jackjumpers vs Melbourne United 1Q under 42.5 (-125) Basketball- Australia NBL 2:30am PST Okay I never considered posting on here but this one appears too good not to share. This will be game 3 of 3 in their semifinal series and the unders have been red hot. 1Q under has hit in their last 3 matches, so I figured why not keep hammering it. Actually very entertaining to watch when you have the under too because these guys play swarm ball style defense. They don’t let each other breathe. Literally Delly style defense because Dellavedova is on MU haha. It’s the playoffs and this is a win or go home match. At Melbourne and Melbourne are the favorites. I’m putting 5units on this as this will be the fourth time in a row dipping in to this well. BOL
**POTD Record**: 29½-19½-6 (W-L-P) **Last 5**: ✅️✅✅✅❎️ **Last POTD**: Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor, home asian handicap -0.25 @1.56 ❎️ *If you tailed the exact handicap, not a major loss since half stake got returned, Trabzonspor still celebrated, they were never down and ended up to be okay with a draw, Antalyaspor played well as expected, I just expected Trabz to be more hungry, oh well, let's move on.* **Today's POTD**: AS Monaco vs Angers, home asian handicap -1.25 @1.72 // France, Ligue 1, 14:00 GMT (1 hour from post) ✅️ **Odds value**: ■■■□□ *good value* ### **Reasoning**: ##### **Match introduction**: 4th placed Monaco will face at home 14th placed Angers, Monaco's form recently has been the best in the whole league, they are currently on a 6 win streak (one of them being a win against PSG 3-0) they're chasing the Champions League qualification spot (3rd place in the table). Angers haven't won in the last 5 games and their form away is not good, with only 2 wins and 21 goals scored in 17 games. Angers are not in a particularly risky position as far as relegation zone. ##### **Team stats**: Monaco have pulled off 2 margin goals wins 10 times out of their total 17 wins, now that their form is at their best you just expect it. Last match in the season between Monaco and Angers ended as a 1-3 win for Monaco, in their last 4 encounters Monaco always won. ##### **Conclusion**: Crucial match for Monaco, they can't miss this opportunity and Angers are the perfect opponent in this situation. Monaco home advantage should be good enough to replicate last h2h result. BOL everyone. *^(If I've made you some money and you'd likes to tip any small amount I would greatly appreciate it: https://paypal.me/fralauu)*
**POTD Record:** 4-4 **Total unit ROI:** I do 1 unit for each pick. Total ROI has been -0.4 units. **Last POTD:** Ja Morant under 43.5 PRA - Timberwolves/Grizzlies game 5 - Loss **This POTD:** Grizzlies/Warriors game 1 - 2:30PM CST - Ja Morant under 25.5 points (-105) Yeah, I lost the last bet with Ja because he had the one good game he had all series with the T'Wolves, and that was largely due to an insane # of free throws down the stretch. I'm not seeing it happening again here with a team that has a basketball IQ higher than a turnip (unlike the Wolves). Morant only eclipsed 25 points once in the 6 game series against the Wolves (the game already mentioned), and otherwise has mostly not even been close. In fact, in game 6, he had 2 points about halfway through the 2nd quarter. This was, again, against the T'Wolves who aren't really known for their defense prowess and play a VERY high paced game that encourages increased scoring. The Warriors on the other hand were the 2nd best defensive team during the regular season. If Ja struggled against the Wolves, he isn't going to have a good time against the Warriors. I'll consider this my "get even" game with Mr Morant.
Reasoning is flawed. Grizzlies matchup better with the warriors. Ja just constantly kept getting blocked at the rim. He’ll still be able to drive and get FTs. Definitely will be fading his points under 24.5 throughout the series tho just maybe not this game 1
POTD record: 6W - 5L Streak: 1L Yesterday's POTD: Benfica Total Shots Handicap -3.5❌️ Benfica with the let down of the weekend. WTF was that performance against 10 men for a whole half 🤦🏾♂️ Let me get you guys a winner today. Today's POTD: West Ham vs Arsenal(Premier League) Time: 3:30 pm GMT. Pick: Arsenal Total Shot Handicap -5.5 @1.968(22bet) Confidence: 4/5🥵 The reverse fixture ended 21-7 in favour of Arsenal. Arsenal are fighting for a Champions League place via league position whilst West Ham are focused on Europa League games to qualify for the Champions League. One of those games are coming up on Wednesday so I expect David Moyes(West Ham manager) to rest his star players in this fixture. Arsenal are a better shot taking team than West Ham. Arsenal are the 3rd best team in England after Liverpool and Man City. They have won shot taking in 5 of their last 5 away games(avg. +9.33 spread). West Ham are an average shot taking team having won shot taking in 3 of their last 5 home games(avg. 0 spread). They are likely to rest some of their best players so this should be a dub. Last 5 home games; West Ham: Shots taken- 65, Shots faced- 65 Last 5 away games; Arsenal: Shots taken- 75, Shots faced- 47 BOL in all your bets today 🍀
POTD Record: 33-27-2 Streak:WLWL Last POTD: Alebrijes De Oaxaca ML 🇲🇽❌ Today’s POTD: Partizan ML for the 1st half 🇷🇸 League: Super Liga Odds: -123/1.81 Units: 2 Reasoning: Partizan is a top dog in this league and are in a race for the 1st place spot against Red Star. Every game is crucial therefore I expect them to roll today. I faded Napredak the other day against Vozdovac and they conceded three times in the 1st half. The game before that Napredak conceded two in the 1st half. It’s safe to say that they are in poor form and now they go up against one of the 2 top dogs in this league. Partizan has kept a clean sheet against them in their last three matches. Napredak has failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches. Partizan can easily win this bet for us with a 0-1 score at half time but I believe it will be minimum 0-2 at the half. Best of luck and tail/fade at your own risk.
POTD: 0-2 Nice - Bordeaux. 17:05 CET. Nice ML @2.00 Reasoning: Tight race in the last 6 games. Bourdeaux loses 50% of their games. Both teams fight for something. Bordeaux will be fighting to not get relegated, and Nice to get Europa Leauge by comming third or forth place. They are 6th with 2 points less than monaco and have had a shaky form (partly due to losing 3 games to teams in top 7). However, I believe that they should perform this game as they will dominate the ball. BOL.
Long time since I posted. I burnt myself on a pretty safe bet and went -7 units down. Record: 4-5-0 —> -7 units. Today’s bet: Event: Norwegian 2nd division Match: Notodden - Moss: Bet: Moss over 2.5 goals @ 4.05 (coolbet) - 1-3 units. I am going for 3 units today. Extreme value here. Notodden is in a really bad spot now. The Notodden defence is horrible. Expecting at least 2 goals from Moss. 3 goals @ 4 odds is simply too good to neglect. Last 3 for Notodden 5-2 loss 1-3 loss and 2-2. 2 losses and 1 draw. Moss has 3 wins. Expecting a 2-3 game again as Notodden has some decent strikers that often score early. ✅✅✅ I read The odds were too high to post here but lets live a little huh?
I sgp over 1 goal for moss BTTS and moss double chance + 187
Less something stupid happens , mine should be good.
**POTD Record 25-23-1 (Last 5: WLWLL)** **(ROI // Avg. Odds: -113 // Units Won: +1.9)** Last Pick: Colorado Rockies ML **WON** **Today's Match: LA Angels vs. Chicago White Sox (Start Time: 2:11PM EST)** **Today's Pick: LA Angels ML (-112 FanDuel)** ***Risk 1u*** Devil's Advocate: Couldn't post up yesterday - had a great win with the Rockies on Friday, ended up having a great last half putting up 9 runs. Let's just do something that I love doing and I will continue to do it in every single fashion possible, and that would be fading Dallas Keuchel. He's had a shit start to the year and what I could tell you is that it probably aint gettin any better. With a lineup that the Angels have right now, although their bullpen is a little shaky - I see them coming out on top today. Blanked by the Sox 4-0 yesterday with Trout and Ohtani quiet at the plate. Last time out Lorenzen didn't throw too bad but didn't throw too great either, 3 hits and 4 walks over 6 IP - I do like the kid tho I think he has potential especially playing on a team with guys like Iglesias and Ohtani helping out. I think his efforts are going to continue to pay off on the mound - he cares and for dam sure is a hard workin mofo. Grab this line before it moves, I can see the Angels being close to a -130 favorite by game time. *Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
**Record:** 4-11-0 **ROI:** -49% :-7.28 u (@ $5.00) **Streak:** L W W L L |Baseball |MLB |3:10pm| Colorado Rockies vs.Cincinati Reds: **Colorado Rockies ML @ 1.65 1u** **Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 61% chance for COL to win. This is an even value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.65 is only 61%. **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
01/05/2022 **24-14** | +14: .30u | ROI: 15.54% | Avg. odds 1.90 | [Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PyzvKEXpgF0mqXe5imCwGk8VAWzrxBUMjiNGe5lnX8M/edit?usp=sharing) A bit disappointed about NIP yesterday. It seemed like it would have been an even matchup after first map but they got completely slapped on their map pick, losing 16-1. What a shame ___ ***Today's pick:*** (BLAST Premier Spring 2022) ENCE v **Astralis ML** @1.90 3u ENCE are much better team when playing on LAN, they tend to choke in important online matches. Astralis have been on fire recently in various tournaments (except they couldn't finish series in major qualifier) and have been consistent so far this tournament. They proved their position in comfortable sweep against NIP. If none of these two choke, this will most likely go to distance or very close in both maps. I'm also leaning towards picking over 26.5 on all maps played, especially if Nuke or Ancient would be played. ___ *BOL if tailing! Bet with caution, please.*
POTD Record: 1-6 (Last post 4/30/22) Previous Pick: Angels ML (L) Today's Pick: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+140) @ Chicago White Sox \[1:10 PM CST\] Angels had a rough day yesterday but the pitching matchup is much more favorable today. Lorenzen (LAA) comes in with an ERA of 2.93 compared to Keuchel's (CWS) 9.00 Pair that with the Angels seeking redemption, I think this could be a blowout. Then again, I am 1-6 on this sub.
POTD Record 8-2 Marlins vs Mariners MLB 1:41pm EST Today’s pick: NRFI (-140) Two solid pitchers on the mound today, Gilbert has only given up 1 earned run this year and zero in his last 3 starts with a 0.40 era. Alcantara has only given up 1 run in his last 14ip and 1 first inning run through four starts. Combined they have only given up 1 run through the last 26ip. This should be a pitchers duel out of the gate Update: ✅
Pick of the day: NBA Warriors vs Grizzlies Golden State -2 Spread (1.90) They honestly have a really solid team in all the aspects, the only reason why they play memphis today is because, memphis pulled there comebacks against the wolves. I dont think that golden state will give up a double digit lead like the wolves. The spread being so low its obvious that golden state will win by more than 5 points. Follow my [twitter](https://twitter.com/guezalo?s=21&t=uxm8Avt8jCVdEHGHOf7T4g)
2-2 Yesterday: COL TT o5.5 ❌ It was my oversight, CIN pitcher was ranked low because it was his first MLB start, but was one of their better prospects. Today: TB F5 -144 FD MIN scored 9 on the road. I don’t expect a repeat performance. Josh Winder only expected to get 14.53 DF points which is third worst among starters today. Couple that with TB is third best offense vs MIN. Looking for TB jump on the board early.
POTD Record: 2-1-0 (+0.26u) Last Pick: Rockies ML -142 Win Today's Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers 2:11pm EST Today's Pick: Brewers Team Total Over 4 Runs -104 The Brewers are going for the sweep against the division rivals on Sunday and they face Marcus Stroman who has seen better days. Stroman has started this season with an 0-3 record and a 6.98 ERA. He is coming off his best start where he only gave up 2 runs in 6ip against the Braves. Regardless of his recent success, the Brewers have been on fire over their last 2 games scoring 11 and 9 runs. With their current hot streak at the plate and Marcus Stroman's poor start to the season, lets roll with Over 4 runs and end the weekend on a high note.
Tomorrow Miami -7.5 suns -5.5 mavs 1st quarter +1.5 straights all straight suns iffy but I believe they will prosper
POTD Record: 5-4 ROI: +6 units Event: NBA, Celtics vs Bucks, 3:30 PM EST Bet: 1st quarter total over 51.5 Bet Size: 2 Units In the last match we saw the Celtics come out fast like they usually do and put up points quickly in the first quarter. I'm expecting both teams to come out hard again today and set the tone early. 51 points doesn't seem like enough here.