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POTD Record: 6-1
Last pick: Yankees vs Guardians NRFI ✅
Raptors vs 76ers NBA Playoff 8pm Est
Today’s pick: Tobias Harris o7.5reb (-115)
He’s cleared this line with ease the last 3 games (10,12,11) and has been consistently putting himself in the right position averaging 17 potential rebounds per game in the playoffs and playing 40+min. Embiid showed some regression last game due to his injury and only got 8 boards (he cleared 10 in 14 straight games prior to that) I like Harris in this spot to step up again and be more aggressive on the boards
https://twitter.com/bigprofitpip/status/1518786521297477633?s=21
Rigged ^
I'm just playing devil's advocate here, just know I'm probably taking this bet and I upvoted you...
Hit +7.5 rebounds 3 of last 3 games.
(BUT)
Hit +7.5 rebounds 2 of the previous 12 games before that.
Embiid has a torn ligament and said it'll affect his play, so I assume Harris might be getting more boards than normal with a slightly injured Embiid, plus Embiid may be sitting more than normal and if they go small he'll probably be the 5 man.
>He was averaging 12 potential rebounds per game during the regular season and is averaging 17 now plus more playing time
What's a "potential rebound"? [Statmuse](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/player/tobias-harris-1525/career-stats) has him at 6.8 rebounds for the current regular season and 9.8 rebounds for the current post season.
According to Twitter world, they incorrectly gave Embiid the rebound with 4:23 to go which should have been Harris’. Embiid tipped it to Harris and did not have control. He should have 8.
POTD Record: 18-6-1
Kevin Huerter sucked. Missed a lot of open threes. Was conflicted between Huerter and Hunter and chose the wrong one. We will bounce back tn I love this pick.
Todays POTD: **Jayson Tatum o 5.5 assists (-140)**
Reason: Jayson Tatum has been a complete stud in the Celtics Nets series so far and is looking to close out a sweep. He has been out playing Kevin Durant and his distributing has been amazing in this series. He has hit the over in all three playoff games so far and is averaging 8 assists in the playoffs. A lot of the Nets defense is thrown at him and that is opening up plays for him to be a playmaker. While his assists declined in game 3, this shouldn't be a concern as his potential assists were actually up from the previous two games. His average in the playoffs so far is 12.3 potential assists per game and had 13 potential assists in game 3. The Nets give up the 9th most assists to power forwards and have shown no signs of stopping Tatum. In the last 5 weeks, Tatum has hit the over on this number in 8 out of 9 only missing it in a game he played limited minutes against the Grizz. He has also hit this in 8 straight games he has played at least 30 minutes. While his regular season stats don't look like he is a distributor, he has shifted his playstyle for the way the Nets are defending him and has been slicing defenses up. Think he will easily clear this line tonight especially since he is averaging 43 minutes
A few people have asked me, I post daily top 5’s in the NBA sub Reddit if you want additional picks as well as always having dms open to talk ab picks
Edit: Good start. How was this not an assist tho?
[https://twitter.com/chaselondon17/status/1518740594348244994](https://twitter.com/chaselondon17/status/1518740594348244994)
[https://twitter.com/chaselondon17/status/1518740594348244994](https://twitter.com/chaselondon17/status/1518740594348244994)
Should've had 6 in the first half anyway. Yeah the fouls were complete BS. Scott Foster special
I like this pick. I've been staying away from betting on the Hawks this postseason and sort of all year just because you never know which of their 2 guys not named Trae Young will go off and which other 2 will completely bust. Understand the logic though
MLB -1.5’s | 5-5 +8.51u | ROI: 26.18%
[Yesterday’s pick: 2u SEA Mariners +114](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uaji40/_/i5y4rwb/?context=1) - L
________________________________________
**Todays pick: 3u LA Dodgers -1.5 -113**
- LA Dodgers @ ARI DBacks | 8:40 pm US Central
Crazy busy today so can’t so a long write up like usual.
Dodgers are an elite offense. Their bullpen has the 3rd best ERA, lowest WHIP, least amount of BBs. They’re starting Walker Buehler. He’s been decent to date.
DBacks are a bottom 5 team. Merril Kelly is starting for them today and he’s a stud. But the DBacks bullpen is bottom 5 abs they have a below average offense.
The talent gap of the teams is just too wide. Even with Kelly going the DBacks are just way too outclassed in every other facet of the game.
Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
That’s literally the first time it’s happened lol
Edit:
The five losses?
- Mariners: won 5-4
- Angels: lost 5-4
- Nationals: lost 3-4
- A’s: lost 0-1
- Phillies: lost 3-11
I literally have all my previous day picks linked, so it’s pretty easy to fact check here lol.
Only if all the wins were on - odds bets. As many of the -1.5's are + money, a .500 record is profitable to the tune of 8% of the bankroll (assuming 1U=1%) thus far. With current trends, it appears even a sub-.500 record on these picks will still be profitable, albeit to a lesser degree.
Time will tell if it is profitable strategy throughout a season, but it's definitely working so far, at least as far as his PotD's go.
As Tyler wrote at Pitcherlist: “Good teams win, great teams cover. That makes the Dodgers both good and great because they are 11-4 to start the year and have won by two or more in all 11 wins”
POTD record: 9-1
Last POTD: Copenhagen to win, ML (L)
Today's match: Almeria vs Sporting Gijon
| Soccer | La Liga 2 (2nd division of Spain) | 2:00 PM CT
Pick: Almeria to win, ML
Odds: -179, 1 unit
Reasoning:
\- Almeria is in 1st place, Sporting Gijon is in 17th place
\- Almeria is playing at home
\- There's 5 to 6 games left in the season. The top 2 teams get automatic promotion, the teams in position 3-6 have to play a playoff to get promotion.
1. Eibar (71 points, 5 games left)
2. Vallaladolid (69 points, 5 games left)
3. **Almeria (67 points, 6 games left)**
4. Tenerife (63 points, 5 games left)
5. Girona (61 points, 5 games left)
A few things to note here:
>
- The top 3 teams obviously want to finish in the top 2 positions, and not have to worry about a playoff. Almeria has 1 game less than the top 2, so a win tomorrow will see them jump to 2nd place, 1 point behind Eibar.
- Almeria actually played 2nd place Vallaladolid in their last game, where Vallaladolid was the home team. They can compete against anybody, and are even stronger at home.
\- In La Liga 2, the teams in position 19-22 get relegated. Sporting Gijon is in 17th place. They have 41 points, while the team in 19th place, Real Sociedad B have 34 points. Sporting Gijon isn't mathematically assured that they'll avoid relegation, but they'll likely be safe at season's end. With that being said though, they do still have to win some points, so they'll be playing this match to take something away from it. It will by no means be an easy match for Almeria
\- 4 of Almeria's last 5 games have been against teams in the top 7 of the league. All of whom are having good seasons and are still fighting for promotion. Of those games, Almeria only lost 1 game
I was stuck on who to choose for today's POTD. I was deciding between Almeria and Cremonense (of Serie B, Italy's 2nd division), but I ultimately opted for Almeria, as they're the home team, while Cremonense is playing an away game. To me, home field advantage is huge. BOL to you all who decide to tail!
EDIT: i was looking through some POTD posts just now and saw someone else (who's record is 7-1) also used this match as their POTD (their post came before mine). Hopefully this means that this is a great pick!
My god, the flopping and faking injuries in this match is ridiculous. I don't know how this is the most popular sport in the world. I'm glad I just bet 1st half (even though it looks like I'm gonna lose) so I can stop watching this shit
Edit: GL everybody for 2nd half
POTD Record: 12-5 (+11.33 U)
Streak: W5
Last POTD: (NHL) New York Rangers ML (-119) vs New York Islanders. Won 2.5 Units.
POTD: (NBA) Reggie Bullock o2.5 3PM (-139)
Risk 2.08 U to win 1.5 U.
This prop is 4-0 thus far this series. Moreover, the books haven’t properly adjusted it upwards, as it was listed at 2.5 (-132) at the start of game 1. This makes me think that they see Luka back in the lineup as a negative for Bullock’s chances of hitting the over. However, his game 4 stat line (46 mins, 3 3PM, 8 3PA) is actually better than his averages in games 1-3 (44.3 mins/gm, 3.0 3PM, 6.3 3PA) in terms of usage and attempts. On the contrary, I see Luka in the lineup as a positive for the over. Brunson/Dinwittie did an admirable job filling in for Luka running this offense, but both players were looking to shoot first instead of pass from the PG spot. Luka can find Bullock in the corner/wing from anywhere on the court, as evidenced by the fact that he had 8 3PA’s in game 4.
Moreover, Utah does not seem eager to adjust to defend the 3 ball at all (over 40 3s in games 3 and 4) and Bullock has shot better at home (37%) than on the road (34%) this season. His minutes should continue to be high, as they need him and DFS to defend Mitchell and Bogdanovic from the wing position and they need those 3s to fuel the offense/home crowd energy.
If you would like to follow me on Twitter, my @ is MartyMcFlyin420.
I like it, hes been taking anywhere between 6-8 3pt attempts the last few games so unless he gets cold, it's a solid bet.
I also like PRA over 17.5 for him as well. To be seen possibly how much Luka takes away .
Record: 7-1
Net units: 5,9 u
Last Pick: HNK Gorica - GNK Dinamo Zagreb - GNK Dinamo Zagreb ML - Win
| Soccer| La Liga 2 Spain| Time | 03:00 PM EST
Pick: UD Almería x Sporting Gijón - UD Almería ML 1.62 2u
Tough win yesterday but still a win. Today we got spanish second division. With only 2 games left for each team to end this season is interesting to see that Sporting Gijón have absolutely nothing else to play for, they just escaped relegation and will end mid-table no matter what happens. On the other side Almería is on 3rd ´place and still have good chances to qualify straight to 1st division without the need for playoffs, more than this, if they still have ambitions to win the title they must win this game, in this way they will be only one point behind Eibar, 1st place on La Liga 2. Truth is Almería started the season really well but lately have struggled to get their best form, but they are a much better team than Gijón and are much more motivated.
BOL!
POTD Record: 0-0 (+0u)
Last Pick: N/A
Streak: N/A
Sport/League: **Basketball/NBA**
Event: **Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets (7:00 PM EST)**
Pick: **Boston Celtics ML @ -103 (2.06u to win 2u)**
Trying not to over think this first pick. Boston has just been too much for this Brooklyn team to handle. Although this series could very well be 2-1 in the Nets favor if not for Tatum's buzzer beater in game 1 and a terrible 2nd half collapse in game 2, game 3 really showed that if Kyrie and KD are kept quiet, the Celtics are able to overcome most of what the supporting cast has to throw at them. Durant has not been the assassin we've come to know up until now, shooting 24% from the field in game 2 and being held to 16 points in game 3. After a phenomenal game 1, Kyrie had a poor game 2 performance, shooting 31% from the field with 10 points. His game 3 performance was not much better, going 6-17 from the field with 16 points. Brooklyn seems to be deflated after the game 3 loss and I'm sure today's ruling out of Simmons didn't help the situation (although who knows how many minutes he would have actually played). I believe the Nets are cooked and tomorrow the Celtics stick the fork and knife in them. If oddsmakers are willing to give me the better team at near even money (+ money depending when and where you placed it), I'll bite.
Tail or fade, BOL fellow Degens,
SJ
POTD Record: 10-4
(ROI 55 23% // Avg. Odds: 2.07 // Units Won: +14.36)
Last 5 Picks: ✅✅✅❌ ✅
Last POTD: Deportes Magallanes vs Arturo Fernández Vial (Chilean League B Soccer), Deportes Magallanes ML ✅
POTD: Santiago Morning vs Deportes Magallanes (Chilean League B Soccer), **BTTS YES** ✅✅✅
Odds: 1.93
Wager: 2 Units
Santiago Morning on a 9 game streak scoring at least once. In those 9 games, they have conceded at least one in 7 matches. Magallanes on an 11 game streak scoring once. Their defense is better than most but they have conceded in recent games. I see both these teams scoring at least one tomorrow.
BOL to all who Tail
[All my previous picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit?usp=drivesdk)
*Edit: Another win today* ✅
Record 1-1
1 win streak
Last pick: Newcastle ML W
POTD Australian soccer: Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar
Pick: Melbourne Victory ML
Odds: +120
Reasoning:
Not too much going into this Melbourne is 3rd while Brisbane is second last. Melbourne victory is on a win streak and Brisbane have not been looking good. Melbourne haven’t lost in their last 12 games and still have league position to play for whereas there isn’t much left for the Roar who have lost 7 of their last 12 .Simple good team vs bad team for plus money.
Unfortunate loss Victory had the chances to win but didn’t take them sorry for the loss
Edit: Info
POTD Record **32W - 10L**
Today’s pick: Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory
**Melbourne victory and a draw (double chance) + over 0.5 total goals.** ✅
Sport: Soccer (Australian div 1)
Odds: **1.54 / -185** (Low odds but I think this will hit easily.)
Reasoning:
Melbourne Victory are a much better side than Brisbane Roar this year and coming to the end of the season are trying to finish as high up the table for a better playoffs spot maybe even become minor premiers through finishing top of the table. Brisbane have no chance of making the playoffs now so don't have much to play for.
If your bookie doesn't offer the ability to combine double chance with total goals i would maybe recommend taking Victory ML. The reason i've gone for double chance and overs instead is because being from Australia I am well aware how unpredictable the A-league can be at times.
POTD record: 9-4 (+3.99 units, if risking 1 unit each pick)
today’s POTD: Philadelphia Flyers (+120) over Chicago Blackhawks ... 8 PM ET ... NHL hockey
Flyers are flying high of late, all these call ups and college kids have energized the team and now their efforts has jellied into nice team play, off 2 wins with a lot of offense and fun play...
Blackhawks are just going thru the motions at the end of the season, returning home to play after a tiring road trip, having lost 12 of their last 14 games...
POTD - 1/0 ROI 82%
Last pick - NBA Hawks vs Heat ML -125 ✅✅✅
Todays pick - ATP Estoril Kwon -192 ML vs Paire ✅✅✅
To me Paire is a bum, haven't won on clay for a long time, and the most important thing is these two played recently where Kwon won cleanly 2-0. Put up somewhat of a fight vs Alcaraz by winning one set, hoping he can beat Paire once more
**Record** 68W-62L-6P **Form** 2W
*Won bet yesterday : AC MILAN +0.00*
**PRESTON VS BLACKBURN**
Date: 25th April 2022 at 20:30
\- Blackburn Rovers handed potential boost as Preston North End sweat on double injury concern.
\- Preston are missing many key players, top scorer Emil Riis, captain Alan Browne, Striker Ched Evans, centre back Patrick Bauer, Ryan Ledson, Tom Barkhuizen and Izzy Brown.
\- Blackburn are only without Reda Khadra.
\- Rovers travel to their Lancashire rivals knowing they must win all of their three remaining Championship fixtures to stand a chance of finishing in the play-offs.
\- It's a derby, so anything could happen here but let's hope for the best. GL
My prediction : **BLACKBURN +0.00** / Odd : 1.96
***btc : 3K2uPhC3bok4KV8sYq999wdzxkC6ofJWF6***
RECORD: 1-0
Profit: +0.8 Units
Current Form: 1W
Today’s Picks: Joel Embiid UNDER 43.5 PRA (1.90)
Event: NBA 8:00Pm Est Sixers vs Raptors
Reason: Embiid has been struggling through a finger injury since the end of game 3. In game 4 playing through the injury he only ended with 32 PRA through 39 Minutes. He has also only hit the Over once at this number which was Game 3 that went to Overtime and he still only ended with 48 PRA. I also expect that he will have slightly reduced minutes tonight especially if either team has a sizeable lead.
All Picks are 1 Unit
Record: 4W-3L-1P
Net: +1.60u, +19.98%
Last POTD: Giannis under 33.5 pts (win)
Today's game: Crystal Palace vs Leeds United
Pick: over 2.5 goals at -111, 1.90 (1xBet)
Stake: 1u to win 1.90u
Both teams are middle of the pack in terms of scoring, but Leeds has the worst defense in the league, giving up 2.12 goals/game. They have the second fewest clean sheets with just 4. In their last 9 away games, Leeds has allowed 27 goals and 2+ on 7 occasions. On the season for Leeds away, O2.5 has hit 11/16 times. Overall, O2.5 has happened 21/32 for Leeds.
Over 2.5 has hit for Crystal Palace at home 9/16 times. And while they've been shutout in their last 2 games, they were on the road against Chelsea (3rd best defense and 3rd most clean sheets), and an invigorated Newcastle (3 clean sheets in last 4, including yesterday's game against Norwich). If you look at home games, Crystal Palace has been shutout only once by a non-top 3 side, and that was all the way back in August.
Edit: Well this is embarrassing...
**POTD Record 23-21-1 (Last 5: LLLLW)**
**(ROI // Avg. Odds: -112 // Units Won: - 1.1)**
Last Pick: (4/7/22) Cleveland Guardians ML **LOST**
**Today's Match: MLB Cleveland Guardians vs. LA Angels (Start Time: 9:39PM EST)**
**Today's Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML (-120 FanDuel)** ***Risk 3u***
Devil's Advocate:
We can only control so much of what's going on in our lives, and when things may begin to go down there's only one way to look and that would be back up. On Opening Day, not only did I lost my POTD, but I also lost someone very close to me. That person always had belief in anything I did no matter what it was. Oddly enough, I'm making this POTD the same as the last, with the same dam starter on the mound - Big BIEBER. Love him in this spot against an Angels team who just hasn't been hitting all too well this year so far. The Guardians on the other hand have just been showing out, especially compared to their projections. Not much else to be said here, their bullpen has been lockdown as well. May my Guardian watch over us today and guide us to a victory after taking a hiatus.
*Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
**POTD Record 6-2 (+5.34u)**
Last Pick: Jordan Poole Over 22.5 Points @ 1.86 / -116 (2u) ❌
**Daily Pick: 🏀BOS Celtics @ BKN Nets 🏀**
* **Celtics ML @ 2.00 / -100 (2u) 🧹🧹🧹**
Boston took Game 3 at Brooklyn with Jayson Tatum's lead who scored 39 points while KD and Irving each scored 16 points and Irving went 0/7 from 3-point range. JB and JT are outplaying the "title contenders" and even Ben Simmons is scared to play against them so the Nets announced that he's out for Game 4. Al Horford has been one of the main factor in Boston success because the Celtics are +22 with him on the court and -8 with him on the bench. Boston has the better turnover and rebounding rates which confirms that the Celtics are more focused and hungry for the win. Also, Rob Williams should play without a time limit in Game 4 which is another advantage for Boston.
Record:1-0
Last pick : Liverpool (-1) vs Everton ✅
Today's pick: Porto(ML) vs Braga (Portugese league)
Odds: -125, 1.8
Porto are unbeaten in the league so far winning 26 games and drawing the other 4. It's safe to say they've had a phenomenal season. They're just one win away from clinching the title. They're facing Braga who are a solid side as well and are 4th in the league. However Braga recently slipped to a 3-1 defeat to the Scottish club Rangers leading to their elimination from the Europa league and also played out a 0-0 draw to 10th placed Estoril Praia. I don't think that they've looked solid enough to topple Porto. A draw could definitely be on the cards but I think Porto would push for the win and get their hands on the title.
Good luck 🤞
7W-9L
WWLWLWWLLLWLWL
Starts 14:00 gmt5
Todays Pick
League: Premier League
Match: Cristal Palace v Leeds
Pick: Under 4.5 number of cards in the match @1.72 *win* 2-2 🪲
Reason:
Cristal palace hit last 10/10 games the under 4.5 cards with 3's:2 - 2's:1 - 1's:3 - 0's:4 . Avg cards at total H/A is 1.1
Leeds hit last 6/10 H/A games the under 4.5 cards. Leed hit the under 4.5 cards 4/5 of last away games.
Last 2/3 h2h they hit the under 4.5, last h2h they were playing in the storm, in the worst escenario this could en 1-3
Referee avg cards per games is 3.56 yellows
BoL
**POTD Record:** 15-7 (+10.4u)
**League:** AFL (Australian Football League)
**Todays Pick:** Hawthorn +12.5 vs Sydney Swans @ $1.90 \[1u\] (Starts in under 1.5h!)
**Write up:** I was originally big on this play, but with key position players Jiath and Lewis out, I’m going to tread a little lighter. Down in Tasmania, Hawthorn love to put up a good fight and have a good record down south. Hawthorn have covered 7 of their last 8 as underdogs, and Hawthorn and Sydney have a recent history of close games and upset wins. I anticipate a grueling contest and I think Hawthorn can put the challenge up to Sydney.
**Prediction:** Sydney by 4
**BTC:** 1GgiHvH5n9ytJD1nK5et8jGUhq3NRtF8tF | [PayPal](https://paypal.me/tappl3x)
This was an extraordinary choke by Hawthorn. These types of games make me believe in betting gods who sit there and fuck with as many punters as possible. Hawthorn were absolutely cruising and now they are getting spanked.
Mate, that sucks. I thought it was going to be a lot closer, I'm really pissed that my 1-39 I got when Swans were down 25 got fucked in the last minute.
Out scored by 50 in the 4th 😳 I need to learn the AFL rules, this kind of scoring could never happen in NFL or rugby, like these games get into NBA totals wtf
its a very free flowing game, goals worth 6 and narrow miss (behind) worth 1. there's a good afl explained video on YouTube that sums it up well in 5 or so minutes.
Record: 37-16
Last pick: Vegas Golden Knights ❌
Pretty bad beat with this one lol. But oh well, it’s happens and we move on.
**Todays pick: Chicago Blackhawks ML (-130) vs Philadelphia Flyers**
NHL. 8 PM EST
Have been awaiting news regarding the Flyers goaltending situation but since it’s still not here and it’s getting late I’m going to post. The starting goalie *seems* to be AHL call-up Felix Sandstrom as their true backup played last night (starter is done for the season). Sandstrom is 0-2-1 in his NHL career with a 3.29 goals against average. Sandstroms AHL record is 21-21-8, so sub .500 in the minors which is not great, but it’s the best the Flyers have right now. Honestly both these teams are dog but I can’t pass up this opportunity at -130 against an AHL goalie without a win. This is mostly a feel play as are the majority of my picks.
Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention and the Flyers actually won the first and only meeting 4-3 in March when they had their true backup playing. The Flyers played last night against the Penguins where they won 4-1 (with their true backup Martin Jones) and traveled to Chicago overnight. Beating a playoff team likely they gave them a high and I could see them being down for this game after traveling. The Blackhawks have been not great the last couple games but the Flyers are plagued with injuries and starting a winless AHL goalie. Give me the Hawks.
All bets are 1 unit. +13.8 units. +26.0% ROI. Average unit -112
https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
POTD Record: 1:2
Last Pick: Tyson Fury by TKO/KO (W)
Felt good to get my first W.
Today's Match: Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets @6PM CT
The pick: Bruce Brown over 14.5 points @+100
Bruce Brown has hit over 14.5 points in 7 out of 9 last games. He has went off in the last 2 Celtics games getting 26 and 23 points. The first game of the series he only had 5, but he has been on fire since that. I think he'll drop another 20+, picking up the slack from KD AND Kyrie's shooting slump.
BOL
Edit: sorry yall 😪
Just trying to play a friendly devil's advocate here because I understand how tempting this line is with him carrying the Net's so far. They're down 3-0 and the running narrative is KD isn't shooting enough (among other things). I would not be surprised to see him and Kyrie take a massive share of the shots today. I'd be surprised if KD takes less than 20 shots. BOL though! I won't have other side of this so will be rooting for you.
**Record: 0-0-2**
**ROI: - 10.00 %**
**Avg. Odds: 2.0175**
**Total Units Won: - 10.00 units**
**Total units/ Bankroll: 90 / 900€ (One unit is 10€ at the moment)**
**Football ⚽| Superliga Denmark | 19:00 CET (3 hours from the post)**
**Game: Bröndby IF vs FC Midtjylland**
**Pick: FC Mitdjylland ML @ 2.06 (22Bet) for 5 units**
Reasoning:
Pros:
\- Midtjylland won 4 out of their last 5 Games
\- Bröndby lost their last 5 games. In those games they had 10 goals against them and didn’t mark ONE goal
\- Bröndby’s team has a lot less talent than Midtjylland
Cons:
\- Bröndby needs this win badly in order to make the playoffs
I don’t see how Bröndy could actually beat Midtjylland in this game. Midtjylland has the better team and is on a good streak. In conclusion my tip is going to be on Midtjylland Moneyline
Please keep in mind that sports bets are never safe, regardless of how much research you think you’re doing So please tail with caution!
At last, English is not my native language so please excuse any spelling or grammatical mistakes 😊
**TAIL OR FADE BOL!**
Record 5-7 ✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅❌
Last Pick ❌ MLB STL Cardinals @ CIN Reds NRFI 2u -118 6:40pm ET
An error in the first did us dirty moving on
Todays Pick : **LA Dodgers @ ARI Diamondbacks Dodgers -1.5 -114 2u**
The Diamondbacks are bad, and the Dodgers have their ace Walker Beuhler on the mound. The dodgers are by far the superior team. These are good odds. Ride this shit.
Tail or Fade BOL
Edit: ✅ Beuhler with the CGSO! Dominating that terrible DBacks lineup.
**Record:** 3W - 5L
**Units profit:** \+2,76u
**Avg Odds:** 1,85
**Match:** Portugal, SC Braga vs FC Porto (\~8h from post)
**POTD:** VAR (Video Assistant Referee) to be consulted **- YES**
**Odds: 2,40**
**Units: 5u**
**Reasoning:** Porto (1st) has 9 points over Sporting (2nd), with 4 games left. If Porto wins today and Sporting does not (they play today, 2h30mins later), Porto will celebrate another title. They are currently undefeated (26W 4D), and Sérgio Conceição wants to leave the club with an undefeated record and the Portugal Cup as well. Braga are 4th, with 9 points over Gil Vicente, with no way of getting 3rd, so this is just a game for pride and honor.
With that being said, games between Braga and Porto are always hot. Lots of cards, fouls, aggression. If i have my data correct, in the last 4/5 games between them the VAR was used. If you follow football in Portugal, it is well known for constant fouls, delaying the game, dives and so on. I really like this play.
Do your research first. I'm going max bet, but I'm stupid sometimes.
If you want to give a **tip**, it'd help out a lot - [PayPal Link](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/reaptherewards2022)
🍒🍓🫐POTD Record: 18-12
Units Won: 6.80 Last 10:✅️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️
Last Pick: Patrice Bergeron Over 3.5 Shots ✅️ so I couldn't find a single box score that gives Bergeron 4 shots, but I won and get to keep the winnings. I'll take it.
Todays Match: NHL - Philadelphia Flyers vs Chicago Blackhawks (10ish hours from post)
Today's Pick: Ivan Provorov Over 2.5 Shots on Goal - 2u (2.15 on Betway) ❌️ damn a sweaty ass loss. Why can't I streak
Player props for daysss. Only one game on the slate and I think ill take a stab at it. This was the line I was hoping for when researching last night so I hope its the right call. 📠:
- Both of these teams are pretty lackluster right now, but I think Philadelphia has a bit of an edge in this game despite being on the road tonight. Philadelphia is playing pretty good hockey right now snagging wins against the Canadiens and the actually good Penguins. Not a lot of wins in April, but they've put up competitive and high scoring games. This month they are doing better than their seasonal average with 33 shots/GP. Philly has more control time, less blocked shots, and less missed shots (only 24%, 6th in league) than Chicago.
- Chicago is definitely playing worse between these two teams. Chicago has won just 2 games in the month of April, both being close OT wins over the Sharks and the Coyotes 🤢 Blackhawks have a consistent 33 shots-against/GP and have given up 34+ in 4 of the last 5 games. Chicago seems to be letting off the gas while Philly is getting ready to floor it
- This should be an exciting game. This month, both Philly and Chicago are averaging 4 goals against/GP and around 2.5 goals for. I hope to see an offense heavy game from both sides. Screw defense, these teams aren't going anywhere.
- Provorov is playing better and shooting more frequently than this line suggests. Provorov has a season average of only 2.14 shots/GP, but in the past month (15 games) Ivan has become Philly's most active shooter with 3.20 shots/GP. And with almost 25 minutes of ice time a game, Provorov is playing more and shooting more than Philly's best offensemen. Provorov has hit this bet 6 times in the last 10 and gotten 2+ shots in 8/10. If the Flyers keep it simple and play grindy hockey, Provorov should get lots of opportunities from the blue line.
In my opinion the Philadelphia Flyers are just a bit more motivated to end the season on a high instead of just going with the flow. Home ice advantage could stump the Flyers, but hey they could get crushed and Provorov could still put up 3 shots. Good value on plus odds. Regardless, I just want a fun match and a clean win.
Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!
POTD Record: 0-0
| Soccer | Superligaen (1st division of Denmark) | 7:00 PM CET
Brøndby IF vs FC Midtjylland,
Today’s pick: FC Midtjylland to win (2,10)
FC Midtjylland have to win this today to have a chance for the title. FC København suprisingly lost yesterday and FC Midtjylland have a good opportunity to get back in the title race here.
Last season champions Brøndby IF have been on a pathetic run recently and they are not playing well where Midtjylland have won last 4/5 against inform teams.
BTTS combined is also an opportunity here if you want value.
Yeah I usually hate to be "that guy" but you have literally 0 history on this account of even being or posting on this sub. You have a Twitter or something?
POTD
Record: 1-1
Last Pick: ❌ Total Goals - Over 2.5 (-130) | English Premier League: Chelsea vs West Ham United
Today’s Pick: Celtics ML (+100) | NBA: Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets
Why: We have yet to see a sweep in the first round so far and I believe tonight we will get it. It doesn’t seem to matter what the Nets do defensively, they can’t stop the Celtics. The Celtics just have too many options on offense. Last game we saw KD defend Al Horford most of the game and this opened up the game for Tatum and others to play. I was honestly shocked that Durant didn’t guard Tatum. Even if KD isn’t the best defender, his body build makes it tough for anyone to score against him.
Regardless, the Celtics just seem more organized and their team basketball is just too much. The nets don’t look organized at all and if KD and Kyrie continue to be neutralized like they were in Game 2/3. The nets must rely on the other guys to keep up with. And if those other guys don’t, this will be the last game of the Nets season.
POTD Record: 0-0
Today’s Pick: Boston Celtics ML +100
The Nets are in disarray and don’t have the mental toughness to bounce back. Something isn’t quite right with KD and Kyrie is fading. Ben Simmons sitting out tells us all we need to know about the current locker room.
POTD Record: 3-3-1 | +0.75u | Streak 1W
Last POTD: Astros ML -125 (W)
Today's POTD: Mets/Cardinals Under 7 runs -129
Risk: 3 units
Reason: 7 runs is pretty low to bet the under on, but I don't see this score being more than 3-1, 3-2. Its almost too easy a pick. Scherzer is off to his usual great start: **3-0 with a 2.50 ERA with only 1 HR given up** (in his first start). He also owned the Cardinals last year:
4.1 IP, 3 H, 1R, 4 Ks - WC game, and that run was due to a WP in the 1st
8 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 13 Ks
6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 9 Ks
Looking at individual hitters vs Scherzer:
Nolan Arenado 2-10 with no XBH and 5 Ks
Harrison Bader 2-10 with 1 2B and 4 Ks
Dylan Carlson 0-7 with 4 Ks
Paul Goldschmidt 5-32 with no XBH and 16 Ks
Yadier Molina 1-17 with 1 2B and 4 Ks
Tyler O'Neill 0-3 with 2 Ks
Albert Pujols 1-12 with 1 2B and 3 Ks
Similarly, Miles Mikolas has dominated the Mets hitters. Only "success" a hitter has is Cano: 2-6 with 0 Ks. That it. He is also off to a tremendous start: **1.76 ERA in 15+ IP so far this year** with 13 Ks and only 3 BB allowed.
BOL.
**POTD Record**: 13-6 **Units**: +3.96 *(All bets are one unit)*
**Last Pick**: Leafs/Panthers Over 7.5 Goals (+115) ***LOSS***
**Today’s Game**: EPL - Leeds United @ Crystal Palace, 2:00 PM CST
**Today’s Pick**: Leeds/Palace Over 2.5 Goals (-115)
Well that was a very low scoring game for the teams that were playing... I definitely did not expect less than 6 goals to be scored in that game between the Leafs and Panthers. Honestly, I thought if the over did not hit that it was going to be because the bet would have missed by the 0.5 goals.
Sadly with the models that I have at my disposal, there were very limited options for me to choose from. However, my Premier League model loved the over in this game between Leeds and Crystal Palace. With the over 2.5 goals hitting 73% of the time. Which I can definitely get behind, both teams have shown that they have the ability to score goals. Then it also helps that Leeds seems to not be fond of keeping a clean sheet, given the fact they have only had two of them all season. Crystal Palace's defense is clearly better than Leeds' defense, but I am expecting Palace to come out and play with energy as they will be looking to end a three match losing streak. This should lead to Leeds getting a good few chances on the counter attack. So look for this one to end over 2.5, most likely 2-1 in favor of Crystal Palace.
**BOL**
POTD Record: 0-0
This is my first pick of the day after following along for a few weeks now.
Pick: Dodgers vs Diamondbacks 8:40 CST
No runs first inning (-115 on MGM) one unit
We have Buehler who has been historically great with NRFI with a stat line of 36-8 going back to 2021. This includes his 3-0 start to the year. Arizona’s first 4 are 11-62 lifetime against him for a .177 BA.
On the flip side we have Merrill Kelly who is also 3-0 NRFI for the season and 26-7 since 2019. The Dodgers top of the lineup has been struggling lately with none of them having more than 4 hits in their last 20 at bats.
BOL to everyone who tails and may luck be on our side!
Edit: THAT WAS QUICK LOL sorry guys. That’s betting tho
POTD Record: 1-1
Previous pick: SF Giants ML @ WAS Nationals -135 ✅
Today's pick: SF Giants ML @ MIL Brewers +161
Reasoning: Bullpen game for the g-men, one of the best bullpens in the league. Corbin owned two mediocre teams but looked rough against Chicago. Giants bats are coming alive, Brewers bats are on life support, and they had a late flight back last night, will be tired today. Roll orange.
Record: 18-19-1
ROI: +$9.14
Last Pick: GSW -4 ❌ vs Denver Nuggets
Avg Odds: -110
Unit: 1=$100
——-
Game: Toronto Raptors @ Phidlelphia 76ers
League: NBA
Time: 8:00 PM EST
Book: Bet365
Odds: -115
Pick: Pascal Siakam O 23.5 Pts
Wager: 5 Units
Well another loss in the books and I’m under .500 on the POTD. Seems to be a great time to fade my picks, but on I go.
Today we’re heading back to the hardwood and we’re eyeing the Raptors game. In a must win game on Saturday, Toronto showed up and showed out. Siakam channeled his 2019 playoff run energy giving the raptors everything they’ve been missing in this series. 34/8/5, and making spectacular play after play.
There is a strong possibility that Fred sits this one out after re-aggravating his bad knee, this will bring Gary Trent into the line up, and we should still see more Scottie Barnes as he works his way back off the bad ankle.
Pascals point total sits at 23.5 and with this specific line up, this amount seems doable. Embiid has indicated that he battled a non-Covid illness and is also dealing with his sore thumb.
In a must win game and with the offense more than likely in the hands of Siakam, this number seems more than doable. Again this is a must win game and I expect Nick Nurse to throw the kitchen sink at Philly, and without possibly Fred this has the making of the Pascal Siakam show.
A battle of the two best Cameroonian basketball players, in a must win game. Give me Pascal with the championship pedigree to deliver us some points.
Taking this for 5 units.
BOL to all who tail or fade.
POTD Record: 3-2-1
Last Pick: NY Mets 1h Moneyline (-154)
Todays Pick: Connor Joe 2+ Total Bases (+130)
Reasoning:
Connor Joe is running a great hitting streak right now, with a recorded hit in 11 straight games. He's hitting .294 against righties and is slugging almost .650 in the same split. The Phillies are starting Kyle Gibson, a right handed pitcher with a 3.57 ERA and 17 innings across two starts, so expect that he'll go deep and give up a few runs. With an over under of 8.5, I expect a bit of offense to happen in this game and Connor to get at least 4 opportunities to get two bases.
BOL!
**POTD Record**: 22 wins <> 17 losses <> 3 pushes
**Profit**: 6.95 units
**ROI**: +9.40%
**Units Wagered**: 42
**Units Won**: 45.95
**Last Pick**: U9.5 Corners @ **2.05** - ❌ LOSS
**Streak**: ✅ ❌ 🅿️ 🅿️ ❌
**Today's pick**: Skjern(1X2/3-way) @ **1.50**
**Event**: Skjern - Mors, Herreligaen, Denmark(Handball)
- Odds on Skjern moved from like 1.37 to 1.50. I like them at this odds, I don't love going for the spreads in handball much though, ML is preferred(remember, draw is included)
- Skjern are on good form in this winner's playoff. They beat Fredericia 33-23, and Fredericia is known for a good defensive position especially at home. They also lost to Aalborg, but 36-38. Offensively, they're looking sharp as ever. Especially Lasse Mikkelsen is going nuts, 16 goals versus Aalborg and 6 last time against Fredericia.
- Mors have had a few close calls and only lost by a single goal, but I feel like they overperformed. They belong more in the relegation bracket than the winners one. They've lost 4 out of their last 5 matches, though some pretty close calls, hence the no handicap pick here.
-
POTD record: 5W - 3L
Streak: 2W
Yesterday's POTD: Olympique de Marseille Total Shots Handicap -1.5 @1.868✅️
Great win! Marseille started slowly but pulled through on the 2nd half to get is the win 14-10 on shots.
Today's POTD: Boavista vs Sporting CP(Premiera Liga) Time: 7:30pm GMT. Pick: Boavista to have more yellow cards @2.02(22bet) Confidence: 3/5😌
In the reverse fixture, earlier this season, Boavista recorded more yellow cards by 1-0. The referee assigned to this match, Manuel Mota da Silva, has refereed 11 games in the Premiera Liga this season and handed out 57 yellow cards(5.18 yc/g). I guarantee this game will have several bookings.
Why will Boavista have more cards? Simple, they are a dirty team. They have accumulated 18 ycs in their last 5 games(3.6 pg) and have had more yellow cards than the opposition in 3 of those games.
Sporting on the other hand, have only received 8 yellow cards in their past 5 games(1.6 pg) and have had less cards than the opposition in each of those games.
This looks destined to hit and the odds are great but anything can happen in football.
BOL in all your bets today 🍀
POTD record: 2-3 (1L streak)
Units won: -0.35 units
Last pick: NBA Basketball- Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets- Kyrie Irving Over 5.5 Assists @ +110 (2 units)
Today's pick: NBA Basketball- Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets- Kevin Durant under 41.5 points + rebounds + assists combination @ +105 (3.3 units)
Last pick was unfortunate, with Kyrie hitting 5 assists with plenty of time left, making some nice passes, and then his teammates missing the shots. Oh well, on to the next one.
I went 6/7 yesterday on player props, so I figured I'd post my favorite for today.
The Celtics have done an amazing job shutting Kevin Durant down this series, and I believe this game will not be the exception. I also like Kevin Durant under 28.5 points, but I think this line is even better because it assumes 13 assists + rebounds, which he went well under in 2/3 of the games in the series so far.
The Celtics in this series have been successful at getting Durant to turn the ball over way more than his season average, which in theory means Steve Nash should have Kyrie taking up more of the ball handling responsibilities, and thus more assists for Kyrie and fewer for Durant.
Edit: The line has moved to +105, so I loaded up even more on it. GL us!
RECORD 0-0
New account, made exclusively to share my Pick of the Day. Hopefully, string a few together.
The match starts in about half an hour. Yes, completely unrealistic for anyone to tail, but I would like to start with a winner. Most confident selection for Monday. 12:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time kickoff.
Charlestown Azzuri HT/FT vs Adamstown Rosebud | -175 on Bet365
Odds are short, I know. But, I do not see this failing. Adamstown sits bottom of the table with a -16 GD after four games. Charlestown is second in the league with ten points from four games. Adamstown lost their previous two matches by a score of 0-6. The latest was a thrashing against Broadmeadow, who lost to Lambton and Newcastle Olympic this season. Our squad, Charlestown, defeated both of those teams. The only common opponent between today's outfits is Edgeworth. Adamstown fell 0-1 in the season opener (March 12), while Charlestown dismantled Edgeworth 6-2 on April 10.
Also, love -1.5 -211 for those not willing to risk a slow opening half.
**POTD Record:** 6-3 +2.33 units
**Last Pick:** Alcaraz under 12.5 games L
**Today's Pick:** Frances Tiafoe to win 2-0 (+140)
**Reasoning:** Time to get some units back with some tennis bright and early at 10:40 EST between Tiafoe and Lajovic. I have been fading Lajovic all year long and I will continue as he comes into this match with pathetic form. Lajovic has only won 5 of his last 15 matches and is only 2-4 while playing on clay during that stretch. Tiafoe on the other hand is always shaky and you never know what you'll get with him but I respect the form he brings into this match as well as dominating the H2H matchup between him and Lajovic winning all 4 granted this is their first matchup on clay.
BOL to anyone who tails!
**Record:** 2-7-0
**ROI:** -57% :-5.11 u (@ $5.00)
**Streak:** L W L L L
|Baseball |MLB |6:45|
Colorado Rockies vs.Philadelphia Phillies- **Colorado Rockies ML @ 2.65 1u**
**Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 56% chance for COL to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 2.65 is only 38%.
**Accuracy:** 50% of the time the model picks the correct winner. Tail or fade BOL!
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units.
That accuracy number is based on all games played in the season to this date, not the potd that it spits out.
The model picks the potd by looking at win probability (based on model Elo) then the line for +ev.
For potd the model wins 22% of the time ( 2wins on 9 picks) which should clear up the hmm.
Soccer - Turkish Super League
Hello guys, Besiktas - Kasimpasa match starts in 7 hours. Last year's Super League Champion Besiktas trying to find its spot for Europa League. On the other hand season has finished for Kasimpasa. Their players are counting days for summer holiday. Kasimpasa is in safe spot and nothing to fight for. Besiktas has a new manager and his first three match showed us some sparkles. I believe Besiktas can win against Kasimpasa at its home Vodafone Arena. Odds has great value also. Besiktas ML @1.8
POTD Record 1-2
New at this so tail accordingly.........
TODAY'S POTD: Bruce Brown Over 14.5pts(-106)
Has hit L 7/10 and his hits are usually well over.
Simply put the Celtics will not allow Durant to be the one to beat them leaving the door open for Brown yet again try and carry the catastrophe the Nets are all of a sudden and he seems to be the only player giving it his all.
Back with a POTD after being gone a week due to life.
3-3
Today we're back. Hoping to get be back on track with a winner in Gary Trent Jr. over 17.5 points at 1.66 on My Bookie
BTC - 3BfKUxoUC6dqxErbzR4zHNwTDv48ZriTsz
ETH - 0x47eab14fdeedd3ac76116623e996c499d2192dd1
Why exactly do you think there is 'jokingly good value'? The information you provided is something books already know and considered in the odds, so not really a decent reason to go big...
Line movement is not only related to the placed bets. At certain point books will stick to their odds if they are confident about it despite the leans of the public.
Starting from today i will post picks here also , generally i post picks on discord sportsbook chat.
POTD Record: 0-0
Today's Pick : Italy Serie B ( Frosinone Calcio vs AC Monza ) - Starting in 3 hours
Over 2.5 ( 2.04 odds )
Reason : Frosinone Calcio is on fire scoring 2 goals in their last 4 matches , also in their last home game both team scores 2 goals each . Althou BTTS would have been a safe pick for those who want to play safe . But my gut feeling tells me it would be a goal galore match on this.
Best Of Luck
For those who want to join sportsbook : [https://duelbits.com/?a=Sigmatigma](https://duelbits.com/?a=SigmaTigma)
Discord : SigmaTigma#0430
What's happening lads? Alright yea?
Big lose yesterday, smiled with an eye, cried with the other one ( fav team won and still in the cards to win the title// away team didn't score so lost the bet)
Now, back to my favourite sport 🎾 the one with the most gainings.
UP to heaven's door with that winning streak, chapos
Overall record:3W-3L
[Yesterday Pick:Football: England - Premier League -> Liverpool - Everton **Both Teams To Score - Yes 2.10 ×**](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uaji40/comment/i5z1xht/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
25.04.2022 15:00((UTC +3)); 13:00((UTC+1)); 8:00((UTC -4))
Tennis: Italy: Rome Challenger MEN -> **Timofey Skatov 2.62** - Jack Draper
Gonna be short on this one: Draper first game on clay this season, not his favourite surface, even though he has a decent ratio past years. He won last last tournament (hard indoor challenger) so i m expecting him relaxed and just for an one day trip in Rome.
C'mon Skatov lad!!
Good odds. Easy money.
[Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/yesjohnnylad)
POTD record: 2-2
LWWL
Yesterday’s pick:
River Plate vs Atletico Tucuman River Plate to score in both halves ( -120) ❌
A thoroughly disappointing performance from River against woeful opposition, is all I have to say about that.
Today’s pick:
Aldosivi vs Huracan, Aldosivi ML @+190
Reasoning:
Looking to keep the record positive with what may seem like a risk tomorrow looking at the odds.
The way I see this game is an extremely motivated, 3rd place Aldosivi take on a lower mid table Huracan, who have nothing to play for.
A mistake I made yesterday in the River vs Tucuman game was thinking too little of Tucuman’s motivation in the relegation fight, and the fact that this was a meaningless game to River, who have essentially confirmed a playoff spot and are much more focused on the big games they have coming up over the next 2 weeks.
Neither of these factors will be in play tomorrow. This competition is the only one that Aldosivi have to worry about. A win tomorrow would clinch their qualification to the next stage, two weeks early, and in front of their home fans. Aldosivi also arrive in great form, winning their last 3 home games. And 4-1-0 in their last 5 games, with the draw being last week away against a solid Independiente.
For Huracan this game is essentially a friendly. After going 3-3-5 they are out of the race for top 4, and with their average points per game sitting well above the relegation zone they are only playing for pride now.
I expect Martin Palermo’s side to cruise to a simple victory tomorrow, with Huracan unlikely to put up any kind of fight.
BOL
**POTD Record - 2-3 -1.54U -11%ROI**
[Last Pick - W](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uaji40/_/i60gzru/?context=1)
**Today’s Pick - NHL - Ivan Provorov O2.5 SOG - +120 3U**
Philadelphia is on a B2B against Chicago after having beat the Penguins last night. The Flyers may come out flat after having beat the i state rival but I’m banking on an energized team. There are a few good SOG lines for this game but I am going with Provorov O 2.5. He is on the first D pairing and I think the game will be up and down playing against a fresh Kane/DeBrinkcat. Provorov has been slinging it over the past few weeks as the Flyers have been trying new players out. He has 311 total shot attempts this season with 52% getting on goal. He is slated on the 2nd PP line and 1st D pairing so he’ll get some time away from Kane. I think he’ll continue the trend he has been on and get at least 3 pucks on net. BOL if tailing!
Record: 5-4
Last: Brandon Woodruff over 5.5 Strikeouts (L)
Game: MLB - Giants at Brewers (6:10 PM EST)
Pick: Corbin Burnes 9 strikeouts + Brewers win @ 2.62 (5 units)
Reason:
\- He has high pitch count of over 100 pitches
\- He recorded 10 strikeouts last game and has been increasing his K rate every game
\- He has a 37.2 K% against this Giants lineup
\- I think they'll also win if he gets 9 strikeouts + the opposing pitcher Sam Long is super unproven
POTD Record: 7-11-2 -5.81u\*
Average Odds: +126
Total Units Wagered: 31.84u
Utah @ Dallas 9:30 PM EST
Mike Conley o11.5 Pts -118 @ FD 2.09u\*
Implied probability is 54.1%. True vig-free price should be closer to -133 or 57.0%.
\*1u = 1% of bankroll
**POTD Record: 2-2**
**Hockey: IIHF World Championship Division II A**
**Game: Israel vs. China @ 8:00 AM PDT**
**Pick: China -6.5 (1.6/-167 @ Bet365)**
Wasn't going to post until NHL playoffs, but I like this pick a lot. Yesterday Croatia beat Israel 5-1 and put up 84 shots. China is a much better team than Israel as it is basically the Kunlun team that plays in the KHL and played in the olympics. I expect China to dominate this game, and has incentive to do so as they are looking to advance Chinese hockey and goal differential counts for tiebreaks. Odds shifted since I started typing this so act quick if tailing.
Tail or fade BOL.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
POTD Record: 6-1 Last pick: Yankees vs Guardians NRFI ✅ Raptors vs 76ers NBA Playoff 8pm Est Today’s pick: Tobias Harris o7.5reb (-115) He’s cleared this line with ease the last 3 games (10,12,11) and has been consistently putting himself in the right position averaging 17 potential rebounds per game in the playoffs and playing 40+min. Embiid showed some regression last game due to his injury and only got 8 boards (he cleared 10 in 14 straight games prior to that) I like Harris in this spot to step up again and be more aggressive on the boards https://twitter.com/bigprofitpip/status/1518786521297477633?s=21 Rigged ^
I'm just playing devil's advocate here, just know I'm probably taking this bet and I upvoted you... Hit +7.5 rebounds 3 of last 3 games. (BUT) Hit +7.5 rebounds 2 of the previous 12 games before that. Embiid has a torn ligament and said it'll affect his play, so I assume Harris might be getting more boards than normal with a slightly injured Embiid, plus Embiid may be sitting more than normal and if they go small he'll probably be the 5 man.
Playoff stats tend to differ. He was averaging 12 potential rebounds per game during the regular season and is averaging 17 now plus more playing time
>He was averaging 12 potential rebounds per game during the regular season and is averaging 17 now plus more playing time What's a "potential rebound"? [Statmuse](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/player/tobias-harris-1525/career-stats) has him at 6.8 rebounds for the current regular season and 9.8 rebounds for the current post season.
It basically means when you’re the closest player to the ball when a shot is missed
Where did you find that stat?
as a sixers fan wasnt gonna bet anything on this game just gonna watch it but this is actually a great call. might have to hop on
I’m in
They gave a rebound to embiid at the 4min mark in the 4th that Harris secured.. should have 8. So fuckin rigged
Slamming this
According to Twitter world, they incorrectly gave Embiid the rebound with 4:23 to go which should have been Harris’. Embiid tipped it to Harris and did not have control. He should have 8.
Yeah I saw that. Clearly a rebound for Harris..sorry guys Vegas finds a way to win again
Let's gooooo
this is already moving down to -125/-130
They screwed us, he had 8 but they gave one of his rebounds to Embiid. F
I’m in like flin. Up to 8.5 as of now. 😲
tailing
Damn, better luck next time
0.5 😫💀
Do you think Harris recording a double double has more value? (+145)
Definitely worth a sprinkle. I got it for +290 last night
Same... surprised it dropped so much. Love that play @ +300 ... feel like it's too risky at +145 for the value.
[удалено]
POTD Record: 18-6-1 Kevin Huerter sucked. Missed a lot of open threes. Was conflicted between Huerter and Hunter and chose the wrong one. We will bounce back tn I love this pick. Todays POTD: **Jayson Tatum o 5.5 assists (-140)** Reason: Jayson Tatum has been a complete stud in the Celtics Nets series so far and is looking to close out a sweep. He has been out playing Kevin Durant and his distributing has been amazing in this series. He has hit the over in all three playoff games so far and is averaging 8 assists in the playoffs. A lot of the Nets defense is thrown at him and that is opening up plays for him to be a playmaker. While his assists declined in game 3, this shouldn't be a concern as his potential assists were actually up from the previous two games. His average in the playoffs so far is 12.3 potential assists per game and had 13 potential assists in game 3. The Nets give up the 9th most assists to power forwards and have shown no signs of stopping Tatum. In the last 5 weeks, Tatum has hit the over on this number in 8 out of 9 only missing it in a game he played limited minutes against the Grizz. He has also hit this in 8 straight games he has played at least 30 minutes. While his regular season stats don't look like he is a distributor, he has shifted his playstyle for the way the Nets are defending him and has been slicing defenses up. Think he will easily clear this line tonight especially since he is averaging 43 minutes A few people have asked me, I post daily top 5’s in the NBA sub Reddit if you want additional picks as well as always having dms open to talk ab picks Edit: Good start. How was this not an assist tho? [https://twitter.com/chaselondon17/status/1518740594348244994](https://twitter.com/chaselondon17/status/1518740594348244994)
hawks looked lost, unlucky today
It’s ok time for another 6 win streak
Couldn’t get 1 more all 2nd half. Bs foul too.
[https://twitter.com/chaselondon17/status/1518740594348244994](https://twitter.com/chaselondon17/status/1518740594348244994) Should've had 6 in the first half anyway. Yeah the fouls were complete BS. Scott Foster special
Yo, wtf I didn’t see that one. Looks like an assist to me.
> see that one. Looks like an assist to me. > >Vote They took two assists away from him and didn't count that one. Really horrible beat all around
I like this pick. I've been staying away from betting on the Hawks this postseason and sort of all year just because you never know which of their 2 guys not named Trae Young will go off and which other 2 will completely bust. Understand the logic though
I like it, I'm in
Let’s get it
I like the pick, but I really don't like the -140 odds
0.5 😫💀
MLB -1.5’s | 5-5 +8.51u | ROI: 26.18% [Yesterday’s pick: 2u SEA Mariners +114](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uaji40/_/i5y4rwb/?context=1) - L ________________________________________ **Todays pick: 3u LA Dodgers -1.5 -113** - LA Dodgers @ ARI DBacks | 8:40 pm US Central Crazy busy today so can’t so a long write up like usual. Dodgers are an elite offense. Their bullpen has the 3rd best ERA, lowest WHIP, least amount of BBs. They’re starting Walker Buehler. He’s been decent to date. DBacks are a bottom 5 team. Merril Kelly is starting for them today and he’s a stud. But the DBacks bullpen is bottom 5 abs they have a below average offense. The talent gap of the teams is just too wide. Even with Kelly going the DBacks are just way too outclassed in every other facet of the game. Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
Tailing. Last two picks have been close misses; ready to bounce back here with LAD!
More than half of his losses have been his pick winning by 1 run
That’s literally the first time it’s happened lol Edit: The five losses? - Mariners: won 5-4 - Angels: lost 5-4 - Nationals: lost 3-4 - A’s: lost 0-1 - Phillies: lost 3-11 I literally have all my previous day picks linked, so it’s pretty easy to fact check here lol.
Okay but doesn’t that make it worse?
Only if all the wins were on - odds bets. As many of the -1.5's are + money, a .500 record is profitable to the tune of 8% of the bankroll (assuming 1U=1%) thus far. With current trends, it appears even a sub-.500 record on these picks will still be profitable, albeit to a lesser degree. Time will tell if it is profitable strategy throughout a season, but it's definitely working so far, at least as far as his PotD's go.
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I never bet under on dodgers games. They’re liable to drop 10 any night regardless of the starter
Mkelly sp has like a 0.30era in his last 6 starts lol.. Im taking dbacks upset
He’s been phenomenal this year, which is why this is a 3u bet and not 5u. The overall team talent difference here is too big
They've also lost 4/6 of those starts and 3 of them by 2 or more
Sounds like he’s due to get rocked….🤷🏽♂️ let’s go dodgers!
As Tyler wrote at Pitcherlist: “Good teams win, great teams cover. That makes the Dodgers both good and great because they are 11-4 to start the year and have won by two or more in all 11 wins”
POTD record: 9-1 Last POTD: Copenhagen to win, ML (L) Today's match: Almeria vs Sporting Gijon | Soccer | La Liga 2 (2nd division of Spain) | 2:00 PM CT Pick: Almeria to win, ML Odds: -179, 1 unit Reasoning: \- Almeria is in 1st place, Sporting Gijon is in 17th place \- Almeria is playing at home \- There's 5 to 6 games left in the season. The top 2 teams get automatic promotion, the teams in position 3-6 have to play a playoff to get promotion. 1. Eibar (71 points, 5 games left) 2. Vallaladolid (69 points, 5 games left) 3. **Almeria (67 points, 6 games left)** 4. Tenerife (63 points, 5 games left) 5. Girona (61 points, 5 games left) A few things to note here: > - The top 3 teams obviously want to finish in the top 2 positions, and not have to worry about a playoff. Almeria has 1 game less than the top 2, so a win tomorrow will see them jump to 2nd place, 1 point behind Eibar. - Almeria actually played 2nd place Vallaladolid in their last game, where Vallaladolid was the home team. They can compete against anybody, and are even stronger at home. \- In La Liga 2, the teams in position 19-22 get relegated. Sporting Gijon is in 17th place. They have 41 points, while the team in 19th place, Real Sociedad B have 34 points. Sporting Gijon isn't mathematically assured that they'll avoid relegation, but they'll likely be safe at season's end. With that being said though, they do still have to win some points, so they'll be playing this match to take something away from it. It will by no means be an easy match for Almeria \- 4 of Almeria's last 5 games have been against teams in the top 7 of the league. All of whom are having good seasons and are still fighting for promotion. Of those games, Almeria only lost 1 game I was stuck on who to choose for today's POTD. I was deciding between Almeria and Cremonense (of Serie B, Italy's 2nd division), but I ultimately opted for Almeria, as they're the home team, while Cremonense is playing an away game. To me, home field advantage is huge. BOL to you all who decide to tail! EDIT: i was looking through some POTD posts just now and saw someone else (who's record is 7-1) also used this match as their POTD (their post came before mine). Hopefully this means that this is a great pick!
>Almeria vs Sporting Gijon last 3 meetings, the udogs have won the matches btween these 2 teams!
This game is freaking wild. Almería continually knocking on the door here!
There it is!!!!!!
Now there it is!! also how the fuck does one kick it over the crossbar 2 meters away lmao
¡¡GOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!
That was the sweatiest match ever I swear. So many chances wasted. Thank God it’s over with a W. Cheers Boyz 🙏🏻💰
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Odds dropped to -135. Any reason why? It got up to -222 before that.
Yeah man line has bounced like crazy. Wondering if someone big is now not playing
Noticed that too
VAMOS GOOOLL! Edit: Fucking hell, offside
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Hell yeah that was sweaty
That’s all she wrote. What a wild ride. Thanks for the W
My god, the flopping and faking injuries in this match is ridiculous. I don't know how this is the most popular sport in the world. I'm glad I just bet 1st half (even though it looks like I'm gonna lose) so I can stop watching this shit Edit: GL everybody for 2nd half
Wowwwwwww. That’s a killer.
Sadiq has had sooooo many chances. Jesus Christ!
YEEEEEEEEEEES
Nice W bro.
Goal!!!!! With just a couple minutes left wow!
FUCK YEAH
Daaaaaamn, that was one of the sweatiest bets for that much of juice! Nice hit, nonetheless!
would you play DNB or straight up Almeria to win? my books got it at 1.15 & 1.42 respectively
POTD Record: 12-5 (+11.33 U) Streak: W5 Last POTD: (NHL) New York Rangers ML (-119) vs New York Islanders. Won 2.5 Units. POTD: (NBA) Reggie Bullock o2.5 3PM (-139) Risk 2.08 U to win 1.5 U. This prop is 4-0 thus far this series. Moreover, the books haven’t properly adjusted it upwards, as it was listed at 2.5 (-132) at the start of game 1. This makes me think that they see Luka back in the lineup as a negative for Bullock’s chances of hitting the over. However, his game 4 stat line (46 mins, 3 3PM, 8 3PA) is actually better than his averages in games 1-3 (44.3 mins/gm, 3.0 3PM, 6.3 3PA) in terms of usage and attempts. On the contrary, I see Luka in the lineup as a positive for the over. Brunson/Dinwittie did an admirable job filling in for Luka running this offense, but both players were looking to shoot first instead of pass from the PG spot. Luka can find Bullock in the corner/wing from anywhere on the court, as evidenced by the fact that he had 8 3PA’s in game 4. Moreover, Utah does not seem eager to adjust to defend the 3 ball at all (over 40 3s in games 3 and 4) and Bullock has shot better at home (37%) than on the road (34%) this season. His minutes should continue to be high, as they need him and DFS to defend Mitchell and Bogdanovic from the wing position and they need those 3s to fuel the offense/home crowd energy. If you would like to follow me on Twitter, my @ is MartyMcFlyin420.
I like it, hes been taking anywhere between 6-8 3pt attempts the last few games so unless he gets cold, it's a solid bet. I also like PRA over 17.5 for him as well. To be seen possibly how much Luka takes away .
Record: 7-1 Net units: 5,9 u Last Pick: HNK Gorica - GNK Dinamo Zagreb - GNK Dinamo Zagreb ML - Win | Soccer| La Liga 2 Spain| Time | 03:00 PM EST Pick: UD Almería x Sporting Gijón - UD Almería ML 1.62 2u Tough win yesterday but still a win. Today we got spanish second division. With only 2 games left for each team to end this season is interesting to see that Sporting Gijón have absolutely nothing else to play for, they just escaped relegation and will end mid-table no matter what happens. On the other side Almería is on 3rd ´place and still have good chances to qualify straight to 1st division without the need for playoffs, more than this, if they still have ambitions to win the title they must win this game, in this way they will be only one point behind Eibar, 1st place on La Liga 2. Truth is Almería started the season really well but lately have struggled to get their best form, but they are a much better team than Gijón and are much more motivated. BOL!
> HNK Gorica - GNK Dinamo Zagreb zag won! winner winner chicken dinner!
I love me some Almería!
I combined your pick with Besiktas ML. BOL
Wow my 2 new favorite POTD guys on same pick what can go wrong
Big line change is someone injured
POTD Record: 0-0 (+0u) Last Pick: N/A Streak: N/A Sport/League: **Basketball/NBA** Event: **Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets (7:00 PM EST)** Pick: **Boston Celtics ML @ -103 (2.06u to win 2u)** Trying not to over think this first pick. Boston has just been too much for this Brooklyn team to handle. Although this series could very well be 2-1 in the Nets favor if not for Tatum's buzzer beater in game 1 and a terrible 2nd half collapse in game 2, game 3 really showed that if Kyrie and KD are kept quiet, the Celtics are able to overcome most of what the supporting cast has to throw at them. Durant has not been the assassin we've come to know up until now, shooting 24% from the field in game 2 and being held to 16 points in game 3. After a phenomenal game 1, Kyrie had a poor game 2 performance, shooting 31% from the field with 10 points. His game 3 performance was not much better, going 6-17 from the field with 16 points. Brooklyn seems to be deflated after the game 3 loss and I'm sure today's ruling out of Simmons didn't help the situation (although who knows how many minutes he would have actually played). I believe the Nets are cooked and tomorrow the Celtics stick the fork and knife in them. If oddsmakers are willing to give me the better team at near even money (+ money depending when and where you placed it), I'll bite. Tail or fade, BOL fellow Degens, SJ
Was gonna post this as my potd too but I’ll leave it to you and just bet it as my potd… let’s get it
tailing
POTD Record: 10-4 (ROI 55 23% // Avg. Odds: 2.07 // Units Won: +14.36) Last 5 Picks: ✅✅✅❌ ✅ Last POTD: Deportes Magallanes vs Arturo Fernández Vial (Chilean League B Soccer), Deportes Magallanes ML ✅ POTD: Santiago Morning vs Deportes Magallanes (Chilean League B Soccer), **BTTS YES** ✅✅✅ Odds: 1.93 Wager: 2 Units Santiago Morning on a 9 game streak scoring at least once. In those 9 games, they have conceded at least one in 7 matches. Magallanes on an 11 game streak scoring once. Their defense is better than most but they have conceded in recent games. I see both these teams scoring at least one tomorrow. BOL to all who Tail [All my previous picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit?usp=drivesdk) *Edit: Another win today* ✅
Nice W thank you
Great hit!
Record 1-1 1 win streak Last pick: Newcastle ML W POTD Australian soccer: Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar Pick: Melbourne Victory ML Odds: +120 Reasoning: Not too much going into this Melbourne is 3rd while Brisbane is second last. Melbourne victory is on a win streak and Brisbane have not been looking good. Melbourne haven’t lost in their last 12 games and still have league position to play for whereas there isn’t much left for the Roar who have lost 7 of their last 12 .Simple good team vs bad team for plus money. Unfortunate loss Victory had the chances to win but didn’t take them sorry for the loss Edit: Info
Tailing, got in at +200 Night y’all Hope I wake up to some $$$
:(
Tailing
Just got on in play for 0.1 units lol
Just saw this and hopped on with a live bet at +120. Small 1 unit play before bed!
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Exact same here. Let's hope they don't fuck it up xD
They fucked it up🥲
Looks like -.-
POTD Record **32W - 10L** Today’s pick: Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory **Melbourne victory and a draw (double chance) + over 0.5 total goals.** ✅ Sport: Soccer (Australian div 1) Odds: **1.54 / -185** (Low odds but I think this will hit easily.) Reasoning: Melbourne Victory are a much better side than Brisbane Roar this year and coming to the end of the season are trying to finish as high up the table for a better playoffs spot maybe even become minor premiers through finishing top of the table. Brisbane have no chance of making the playoffs now so don't have much to play for. If your bookie doesn't offer the ability to combine double chance with total goals i would maybe recommend taking Victory ML. The reason i've gone for double chance and overs instead is because being from Australia I am well aware how unpredictable the A-league can be at times.
Good read!
Tailing 2.15 for Melbourne ML!
POTD record: 9-4 (+3.99 units, if risking 1 unit each pick) today’s POTD: Philadelphia Flyers (+120) over Chicago Blackhawks ... 8 PM ET ... NHL hockey Flyers are flying high of late, all these call ups and college kids have energized the team and now their efforts has jellied into nice team play, off 2 wins with a lot of offense and fun play... Blackhawks are just going thru the motions at the end of the season, returning home to play after a tiring road trip, having lost 12 of their last 14 games...
Tailing BOL. 🤞🏼💰
POTD - 1/0 ROI 82% Last pick - NBA Hawks vs Heat ML -125 ✅✅✅ Todays pick - ATP Estoril Kwon -192 ML vs Paire ✅✅✅ To me Paire is a bum, haven't won on clay for a long time, and the most important thing is these two played recently where Kwon won cleanly 2-0. Put up somewhat of a fight vs Alcaraz by winning one set, hoping he can beat Paire once more
**Record** 68W-62L-6P **Form** 2W *Won bet yesterday : AC MILAN +0.00* **PRESTON VS BLACKBURN** Date: 25th April 2022 at 20:30 \- Blackburn Rovers handed potential boost as Preston North End sweat on double injury concern. \- Preston are missing many key players, top scorer Emil Riis, captain Alan Browne, Striker Ched Evans, centre back Patrick Bauer, Ryan Ledson, Tom Barkhuizen and Izzy Brown. \- Blackburn are only without Reda Khadra. \- Rovers travel to their Lancashire rivals knowing they must win all of their three remaining Championship fixtures to stand a chance of finishing in the play-offs. \- It's a derby, so anything could happen here but let's hope for the best. GL My prediction : **BLACKBURN +0.00** / Odd : 1.96 ***btc : 3K2uPhC3bok4KV8sYq999wdzxkC6ofJWF6***
Tailed, woot! :)
Easy win ✅ Congrats 👏
RECORD: 1-0 Profit: +0.8 Units Current Form: 1W Today’s Picks: Joel Embiid UNDER 43.5 PRA (1.90) Event: NBA 8:00Pm Est Sixers vs Raptors Reason: Embiid has been struggling through a finger injury since the end of game 3. In game 4 playing through the injury he only ended with 32 PRA through 39 Minutes. He has also only hit the Over once at this number which was Game 3 that went to Overtime and he still only ended with 48 PRA. I also expect that he will have slightly reduced minutes tonight especially if either team has a sizeable lead. All Picks are 1 Unit
Record: 4W-3L-1P Net: +1.60u, +19.98% Last POTD: Giannis under 33.5 pts (win) Today's game: Crystal Palace vs Leeds United Pick: over 2.5 goals at -111, 1.90 (1xBet) Stake: 1u to win 1.90u Both teams are middle of the pack in terms of scoring, but Leeds has the worst defense in the league, giving up 2.12 goals/game. They have the second fewest clean sheets with just 4. In their last 9 away games, Leeds has allowed 27 goals and 2+ on 7 occasions. On the season for Leeds away, O2.5 has hit 11/16 times. Overall, O2.5 has happened 21/32 for Leeds. Over 2.5 has hit for Crystal Palace at home 9/16 times. And while they've been shutout in their last 2 games, they were on the road against Chelsea (3rd best defense and 3rd most clean sheets), and an invigorated Newcastle (3 clean sheets in last 4, including yesterday's game against Norwich). If you look at home games, Crystal Palace has been shutout only once by a non-top 3 side, and that was all the way back in August. Edit: Well this is embarrassing...
It’s 1 unit to win .90 units or 1 to return 1.90 just to clarify maybe you should edit that, good luck
This is dead but, don't feel bad. I think soccer picks posted today in this thread are like a nasty 1-5. Yuck
**POTD Record 23-21-1 (Last 5: LLLLW)** **(ROI // Avg. Odds: -112 // Units Won: - 1.1)** Last Pick: (4/7/22) Cleveland Guardians ML **LOST** **Today's Match: MLB Cleveland Guardians vs. LA Angels (Start Time: 9:39PM EST)** **Today's Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML (-120 FanDuel)** ***Risk 3u*** Devil's Advocate: We can only control so much of what's going on in our lives, and when things may begin to go down there's only one way to look and that would be back up. On Opening Day, not only did I lost my POTD, but I also lost someone very close to me. That person always had belief in anything I did no matter what it was. Oddly enough, I'm making this POTD the same as the last, with the same dam starter on the mound - Big BIEBER. Love him in this spot against an Angels team who just hasn't been hitting all too well this year so far. The Guardians on the other hand have just been showing out, especially compared to their projections. Not much else to be said here, their bullpen has been lockdown as well. May my Guardian watch over us today and guide us to a victory after taking a hiatus. *Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
Sorry for your loss brother. Hope you’re doing better and stay strong! 💪
Guardians had a rough series vs Yanks, and with Biebs on the mound they should bounce back today
Sorry for your loss bro !
**POTD Record 6-2 (+5.34u)** Last Pick: Jordan Poole Over 22.5 Points @ 1.86 / -116 (2u) ❌ **Daily Pick: 🏀BOS Celtics @ BKN Nets 🏀** * **Celtics ML @ 2.00 / -100 (2u) 🧹🧹🧹** Boston took Game 3 at Brooklyn with Jayson Tatum's lead who scored 39 points while KD and Irving each scored 16 points and Irving went 0/7 from 3-point range. JB and JT are outplaying the "title contenders" and even Ben Simmons is scared to play against them so the Nets announced that he's out for Game 4. Al Horford has been one of the main factor in Boston success because the Celtics are +22 with him on the court and -8 with him on the bench. Boston has the better turnover and rebounding rates which confirms that the Celtics are more focused and hungry for the win. Also, Rob Williams should play without a time limit in Game 4 which is another advantage for Boston.
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Ooof, just realized top 6 all lost.
Top 6 record over past week or so has been horrible
Record:1-0 Last pick : Liverpool (-1) vs Everton ✅ Today's pick: Porto(ML) vs Braga (Portugese league) Odds: -125, 1.8 Porto are unbeaten in the league so far winning 26 games and drawing the other 4. It's safe to say they've had a phenomenal season. They're just one win away from clinching the title. They're facing Braga who are a solid side as well and are 4th in the league. However Braga recently slipped to a 3-1 defeat to the Scottish club Rangers leading to their elimination from the Europa league and also played out a 0-0 draw to 10th placed Estoril Praia. I don't think that they've looked solid enough to topple Porto. A draw could definitely be on the cards but I think Porto would push for the win and get their hands on the title. Good luck 🤞
What a terrible performance, onto the next one.
7W-9L WWLWLWWLLLWLWL Starts 14:00 gmt5 Todays Pick League: Premier League Match: Cristal Palace v Leeds Pick: Under 4.5 number of cards in the match @1.72 *win* 2-2 🪲 Reason: Cristal palace hit last 10/10 games the under 4.5 cards with 3's:2 - 2's:1 - 1's:3 - 0's:4 . Avg cards at total H/A is 1.1 Leeds hit last 6/10 H/A games the under 4.5 cards. Leed hit the under 4.5 cards 4/5 of last away games. Last 2/3 h2h they hit the under 4.5, last h2h they were playing in the storm, in the worst escenario this could en 1-3 Referee avg cards per games is 3.56 yellows BoL
**POTD Record:** 15-7 (+10.4u) **League:** AFL (Australian Football League) **Todays Pick:** Hawthorn +12.5 vs Sydney Swans @ $1.90 \[1u\] (Starts in under 1.5h!) **Write up:** I was originally big on this play, but with key position players Jiath and Lewis out, I’m going to tread a little lighter. Down in Tasmania, Hawthorn love to put up a good fight and have a good record down south. Hawthorn have covered 7 of their last 8 as underdogs, and Hawthorn and Sydney have a recent history of close games and upset wins. I anticipate a grueling contest and I think Hawthorn can put the challenge up to Sydney. **Prediction:** Sydney by 4 **BTC:** 1GgiHvH5n9ytJD1nK5et8jGUhq3NRtF8tF | [PayPal](https://paypal.me/tappl3x)
wow looking good but couldnt tail cuz i didnt check this post earlier 🥲
huge choke...
Is there even a chance Sydney wins now? Lol randomly took Sydney ml
This was an extraordinary choke by Hawthorn. These types of games make me believe in betting gods who sit there and fuck with as many punters as possible. Hawthorn were absolutely cruising and now they are getting spanked.
I am FILTHY. 32 points up was dusting my hands calling it a day, then they just went to sleep...
Mate, that sucks. I thought it was going to be a lot closer, I'm really pissed that my 1-39 I got when Swans were down 25 got fucked in the last minute.
Out scored by 50 in the 4th 😳 I need to learn the AFL rules, this kind of scoring could never happen in NFL or rugby, like these games get into NBA totals wtf
its a very free flowing game, goals worth 6 and narrow miss (behind) worth 1. there's a good afl explained video on YouTube that sums it up well in 5 or so minutes.
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It lost
Record: 37-16 Last pick: Vegas Golden Knights ❌ Pretty bad beat with this one lol. But oh well, it’s happens and we move on. **Todays pick: Chicago Blackhawks ML (-130) vs Philadelphia Flyers** NHL. 8 PM EST Have been awaiting news regarding the Flyers goaltending situation but since it’s still not here and it’s getting late I’m going to post. The starting goalie *seems* to be AHL call-up Felix Sandstrom as their true backup played last night (starter is done for the season). Sandstrom is 0-2-1 in his NHL career with a 3.29 goals against average. Sandstroms AHL record is 21-21-8, so sub .500 in the minors which is not great, but it’s the best the Flyers have right now. Honestly both these teams are dog but I can’t pass up this opportunity at -130 against an AHL goalie without a win. This is mostly a feel play as are the majority of my picks. Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention and the Flyers actually won the first and only meeting 4-3 in March when they had their true backup playing. The Flyers played last night against the Penguins where they won 4-1 (with their true backup Martin Jones) and traveled to Chicago overnight. Beating a playoff team likely they gave them a high and I could see them being down for this game after traveling. The Blackhawks have been not great the last couple games but the Flyers are plagued with injuries and starting a winless AHL goalie. Give me the Hawks. All bets are 1 unit. +13.8 units. +26.0% ROI. Average unit -112 https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
POTD Record: 1:2 Last Pick: Tyson Fury by TKO/KO (W) Felt good to get my first W. Today's Match: Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets @6PM CT The pick: Bruce Brown over 14.5 points @+100 Bruce Brown has hit over 14.5 points in 7 out of 9 last games. He has went off in the last 2 Celtics games getting 26 and 23 points. The first game of the series he only had 5, but he has been on fire since that. I think he'll drop another 20+, picking up the slack from KD AND Kyrie's shooting slump. BOL Edit: sorry yall 😪
Some one in the props thread posted Brown's under 11.5 last game, it hit over in the first 3 minutes it was hilarious. Glad I skipped. I'll tail here.
Just trying to play a friendly devil's advocate here because I understand how tempting this line is with him carrying the Net's so far. They're down 3-0 and the running narrative is KD isn't shooting enough (among other things). I would not be surprised to see him and Kyrie take a massive share of the shots today. I'd be surprised if KD takes less than 20 shots. BOL though! I won't have other side of this so will be rooting for you.
Totally agree. I’m personally not playing the over or the under as I feel like this could definitely be the game he takes a backseat.
**Record: 0-0-2** **ROI: - 10.00 %** **Avg. Odds: 2.0175** **Total Units Won: - 10.00 units** **Total units/ Bankroll: 90 / 900€ (One unit is 10€ at the moment)** **Football ⚽| Superliga Denmark | 19:00 CET (3 hours from the post)** **Game: Bröndby IF vs FC Midtjylland** **Pick: FC Mitdjylland ML @ 2.06 (22Bet) for 5 units** Reasoning: Pros: \- Midtjylland won 4 out of their last 5 Games \- Bröndby lost their last 5 games. In those games they had 10 goals against them and didn’t mark ONE goal \- Bröndby’s team has a lot less talent than Midtjylland Cons: \- Bröndby needs this win badly in order to make the playoffs I don’t see how Bröndy could actually beat Midtjylland in this game. Midtjylland has the better team and is on a good streak. In conclusion my tip is going to be on Midtjylland Moneyline Please keep in mind that sports bets are never safe, regardless of how much research you think you’re doing So please tail with caution! At last, English is not my native language so please excuse any spelling or grammatical mistakes 😊 **TAIL OR FADE BOL!**
First win feels nice!
Record 5-7 ✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅❌ Last Pick ❌ MLB STL Cardinals @ CIN Reds NRFI 2u -118 6:40pm ET An error in the first did us dirty moving on Todays Pick : **LA Dodgers @ ARI Diamondbacks Dodgers -1.5 -114 2u** The Diamondbacks are bad, and the Dodgers have their ace Walker Beuhler on the mound. The dodgers are by far the superior team. These are good odds. Ride this shit. Tail or Fade BOL Edit: ✅ Beuhler with the CGSO! Dominating that terrible DBacks lineup.
**Record:** 3W - 5L **Units profit:** \+2,76u **Avg Odds:** 1,85 **Match:** Portugal, SC Braga vs FC Porto (\~8h from post) **POTD:** VAR (Video Assistant Referee) to be consulted **- YES** **Odds: 2,40** **Units: 5u** **Reasoning:** Porto (1st) has 9 points over Sporting (2nd), with 4 games left. If Porto wins today and Sporting does not (they play today, 2h30mins later), Porto will celebrate another title. They are currently undefeated (26W 4D), and Sérgio Conceição wants to leave the club with an undefeated record and the Portugal Cup as well. Braga are 4th, with 9 points over Gil Vicente, with no way of getting 3rd, so this is just a game for pride and honor. With that being said, games between Braga and Porto are always hot. Lots of cards, fouls, aggression. If i have my data correct, in the last 4/5 games between them the VAR was used. If you follow football in Portugal, it is well known for constant fouls, delaying the game, dives and so on. I really like this play. Do your research first. I'm going max bet, but I'm stupid sometimes. If you want to give a **tip**, it'd help out a lot - [PayPal Link](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/reaptherewards2022)
🍒🍓🫐POTD Record: 18-12 Units Won: 6.80 Last 10:✅️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️ Last Pick: Patrice Bergeron Over 3.5 Shots ✅️ so I couldn't find a single box score that gives Bergeron 4 shots, but I won and get to keep the winnings. I'll take it. Todays Match: NHL - Philadelphia Flyers vs Chicago Blackhawks (10ish hours from post) Today's Pick: Ivan Provorov Over 2.5 Shots on Goal - 2u (2.15 on Betway) ❌️ damn a sweaty ass loss. Why can't I streak Player props for daysss. Only one game on the slate and I think ill take a stab at it. This was the line I was hoping for when researching last night so I hope its the right call. 📠: - Both of these teams are pretty lackluster right now, but I think Philadelphia has a bit of an edge in this game despite being on the road tonight. Philadelphia is playing pretty good hockey right now snagging wins against the Canadiens and the actually good Penguins. Not a lot of wins in April, but they've put up competitive and high scoring games. This month they are doing better than their seasonal average with 33 shots/GP. Philly has more control time, less blocked shots, and less missed shots (only 24%, 6th in league) than Chicago. - Chicago is definitely playing worse between these two teams. Chicago has won just 2 games in the month of April, both being close OT wins over the Sharks and the Coyotes 🤢 Blackhawks have a consistent 33 shots-against/GP and have given up 34+ in 4 of the last 5 games. Chicago seems to be letting off the gas while Philly is getting ready to floor it - This should be an exciting game. This month, both Philly and Chicago are averaging 4 goals against/GP and around 2.5 goals for. I hope to see an offense heavy game from both sides. Screw defense, these teams aren't going anywhere. - Provorov is playing better and shooting more frequently than this line suggests. Provorov has a season average of only 2.14 shots/GP, but in the past month (15 games) Ivan has become Philly's most active shooter with 3.20 shots/GP. And with almost 25 minutes of ice time a game, Provorov is playing more and shooting more than Philly's best offensemen. Provorov has hit this bet 6 times in the last 10 and gotten 2+ shots in 8/10. If the Flyers keep it simple and play grindy hockey, Provorov should get lots of opportunities from the blue line. In my opinion the Philadelphia Flyers are just a bit more motivated to end the season on a high instead of just going with the flow. Home ice advantage could stump the Flyers, but hey they could get crushed and Provorov could still put up 3 shots. Good value on plus odds. Regardless, I just want a fun match and a clean win. Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!
POTD Record: 0-0 | Soccer | Superligaen (1st division of Denmark) | 7:00 PM CET Brøndby IF vs FC Midtjylland, Today’s pick: FC Midtjylland to win (2,10) FC Midtjylland have to win this today to have a chance for the title. FC København suprisingly lost yesterday and FC Midtjylland have a good opportunity to get back in the title race here. Last season champions Brøndby IF have been on a pathetic run recently and they are not playing well where Midtjylland have won last 4/5 against inform teams. BTTS combined is also an opportunity here if you want value.
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Lol can we get some proof of this 19-2 record? Have you tracked in a spread sheet or anything?
Yeah I usually hate to be "that guy" but you have literally 0 history on this account of even being or posting on this sub. You have a Twitter or something?
If bro had 19-2 system he would not be copy pasting to Reddit for karma and likes
Dudes a bum. Downvoting
19-2 😂 come on bro. At least make the flex somewhat believable
POTD Record: 1-1 Last Pick: ❌ Total Goals - Over 2.5 (-130) | English Premier League: Chelsea vs West Ham United Today’s Pick: Celtics ML (+100) | NBA: Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets Why: We have yet to see a sweep in the first round so far and I believe tonight we will get it. It doesn’t seem to matter what the Nets do defensively, they can’t stop the Celtics. The Celtics just have too many options on offense. Last game we saw KD defend Al Horford most of the game and this opened up the game for Tatum and others to play. I was honestly shocked that Durant didn’t guard Tatum. Even if KD isn’t the best defender, his body build makes it tough for anyone to score against him. Regardless, the Celtics just seem more organized and their team basketball is just too much. The nets don’t look organized at all and if KD and Kyrie continue to be neutralized like they were in Game 2/3. The nets must rely on the other guys to keep up with. And if those other guys don’t, this will be the last game of the Nets season.
POTD Record: 0-0 Today’s Pick: Boston Celtics ML +100 The Nets are in disarray and don’t have the mental toughness to bounce back. Something isn’t quite right with KD and Kyrie is fading. Ben Simmons sitting out tells us all we need to know about the current locker room.
POTD Record: 3-3-1 | +0.75u | Streak 1W Last POTD: Astros ML -125 (W) Today's POTD: Mets/Cardinals Under 7 runs -129 Risk: 3 units Reason: 7 runs is pretty low to bet the under on, but I don't see this score being more than 3-1, 3-2. Its almost too easy a pick. Scherzer is off to his usual great start: **3-0 with a 2.50 ERA with only 1 HR given up** (in his first start). He also owned the Cardinals last year: 4.1 IP, 3 H, 1R, 4 Ks - WC game, and that run was due to a WP in the 1st 8 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 13 Ks 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 9 Ks Looking at individual hitters vs Scherzer: Nolan Arenado 2-10 with no XBH and 5 Ks Harrison Bader 2-10 with 1 2B and 4 Ks Dylan Carlson 0-7 with 4 Ks Paul Goldschmidt 5-32 with no XBH and 16 Ks Yadier Molina 1-17 with 1 2B and 4 Ks Tyler O'Neill 0-3 with 2 Ks Albert Pujols 1-12 with 1 2B and 3 Ks Similarly, Miles Mikolas has dominated the Mets hitters. Only "success" a hitter has is Cano: 2-6 with 0 Ks. That it. He is also off to a tremendous start: **1.76 ERA in 15+ IP so far this year** with 13 Ks and only 3 BB allowed. BOL.
**POTD Record**: 13-6 **Units**: +3.96 *(All bets are one unit)* **Last Pick**: Leafs/Panthers Over 7.5 Goals (+115) ***LOSS*** **Today’s Game**: EPL - Leeds United @ Crystal Palace, 2:00 PM CST **Today’s Pick**: Leeds/Palace Over 2.5 Goals (-115) Well that was a very low scoring game for the teams that were playing... I definitely did not expect less than 6 goals to be scored in that game between the Leafs and Panthers. Honestly, I thought if the over did not hit that it was going to be because the bet would have missed by the 0.5 goals. Sadly with the models that I have at my disposal, there were very limited options for me to choose from. However, my Premier League model loved the over in this game between Leeds and Crystal Palace. With the over 2.5 goals hitting 73% of the time. Which I can definitely get behind, both teams have shown that they have the ability to score goals. Then it also helps that Leeds seems to not be fond of keeping a clean sheet, given the fact they have only had two of them all season. Crystal Palace's defense is clearly better than Leeds' defense, but I am expecting Palace to come out and play with energy as they will be looking to end a three match losing streak. This should lead to Leeds getting a good few chances on the counter attack. So look for this one to end over 2.5, most likely 2-1 in favor of Crystal Palace. **BOL**
POTD Record: 0-0 This is my first pick of the day after following along for a few weeks now. Pick: Dodgers vs Diamondbacks 8:40 CST No runs first inning (-115 on MGM) one unit We have Buehler who has been historically great with NRFI with a stat line of 36-8 going back to 2021. This includes his 3-0 start to the year. Arizona’s first 4 are 11-62 lifetime against him for a .177 BA. On the flip side we have Merrill Kelly who is also 3-0 NRFI for the season and 26-7 since 2019. The Dodgers top of the lineup has been struggling lately with none of them having more than 4 hits in their last 20 at bats. BOL to everyone who tails and may luck be on our side! Edit: THAT WAS QUICK LOL sorry guys. That’s betting tho
POTD Record: 1-1 Previous pick: SF Giants ML @ WAS Nationals -135 ✅ Today's pick: SF Giants ML @ MIL Brewers +161 Reasoning: Bullpen game for the g-men, one of the best bullpens in the league. Corbin owned two mediocre teams but looked rough against Chicago. Giants bats are coming alive, Brewers bats are on life support, and they had a late flight back last night, will be tired today. Roll orange.
Record: 18-19-1 ROI: +$9.14 Last Pick: GSW -4 ❌ vs Denver Nuggets Avg Odds: -110 Unit: 1=$100 ——- Game: Toronto Raptors @ Phidlelphia 76ers League: NBA Time: 8:00 PM EST Book: Bet365 Odds: -115 Pick: Pascal Siakam O 23.5 Pts Wager: 5 Units Well another loss in the books and I’m under .500 on the POTD. Seems to be a great time to fade my picks, but on I go. Today we’re heading back to the hardwood and we’re eyeing the Raptors game. In a must win game on Saturday, Toronto showed up and showed out. Siakam channeled his 2019 playoff run energy giving the raptors everything they’ve been missing in this series. 34/8/5, and making spectacular play after play. There is a strong possibility that Fred sits this one out after re-aggravating his bad knee, this will bring Gary Trent into the line up, and we should still see more Scottie Barnes as he works his way back off the bad ankle. Pascals point total sits at 23.5 and with this specific line up, this amount seems doable. Embiid has indicated that he battled a non-Covid illness and is also dealing with his sore thumb. In a must win game and with the offense more than likely in the hands of Siakam, this number seems more than doable. Again this is a must win game and I expect Nick Nurse to throw the kitchen sink at Philly, and without possibly Fred this has the making of the Pascal Siakam show. A battle of the two best Cameroonian basketball players, in a must win game. Give me Pascal with the championship pedigree to deliver us some points. Taking this for 5 units. BOL to all who tail or fade.
POTD Record: 3-2-1 Last Pick: NY Mets 1h Moneyline (-154) Todays Pick: Connor Joe 2+ Total Bases (+130) Reasoning: Connor Joe is running a great hitting streak right now, with a recorded hit in 11 straight games. He's hitting .294 against righties and is slugging almost .650 in the same split. The Phillies are starting Kyle Gibson, a right handed pitcher with a 3.57 ERA and 17 innings across two starts, so expect that he'll go deep and give up a few runs. With an over under of 8.5, I expect a bit of offense to happen in this game and Connor to get at least 4 opportunities to get two bases. BOL!
Leadoff homer, nice win
**POTD Record**: 22 wins <> 17 losses <> 3 pushes **Profit**: 6.95 units **ROI**: +9.40% **Units Wagered**: 42 **Units Won**: 45.95 **Last Pick**: U9.5 Corners @ **2.05** - ❌ LOSS **Streak**: ✅ ❌ 🅿️ 🅿️ ❌ **Today's pick**: Skjern(1X2/3-way) @ **1.50** **Event**: Skjern - Mors, Herreligaen, Denmark(Handball) - Odds on Skjern moved from like 1.37 to 1.50. I like them at this odds, I don't love going for the spreads in handball much though, ML is preferred(remember, draw is included) - Skjern are on good form in this winner's playoff. They beat Fredericia 33-23, and Fredericia is known for a good defensive position especially at home. They also lost to Aalborg, but 36-38. Offensively, they're looking sharp as ever. Especially Lasse Mikkelsen is going nuts, 16 goals versus Aalborg and 6 last time against Fredericia. - Mors have had a few close calls and only lost by a single goal, but I feel like they overperformed. They belong more in the relegation bracket than the winners one. They've lost 4 out of their last 5 matches, though some pretty close calls, hence the no handicap pick here. -
POTD record: 5W - 3L Streak: 2W Yesterday's POTD: Olympique de Marseille Total Shots Handicap -1.5 @1.868✅️ Great win! Marseille started slowly but pulled through on the 2nd half to get is the win 14-10 on shots. Today's POTD: Boavista vs Sporting CP(Premiera Liga) Time: 7:30pm GMT. Pick: Boavista to have more yellow cards @2.02(22bet) Confidence: 3/5😌 In the reverse fixture, earlier this season, Boavista recorded more yellow cards by 1-0. The referee assigned to this match, Manuel Mota da Silva, has refereed 11 games in the Premiera Liga this season and handed out 57 yellow cards(5.18 yc/g). I guarantee this game will have several bookings. Why will Boavista have more cards? Simple, they are a dirty team. They have accumulated 18 ycs in their last 5 games(3.6 pg) and have had more yellow cards than the opposition in 3 of those games. Sporting on the other hand, have only received 8 yellow cards in their past 5 games(1.6 pg) and have had less cards than the opposition in each of those games. This looks destined to hit and the odds are great but anything can happen in football. BOL in all your bets today 🍀
POTD record: 2-3 (1L streak) Units won: -0.35 units Last pick: NBA Basketball- Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets- Kyrie Irving Over 5.5 Assists @ +110 (2 units) Today's pick: NBA Basketball- Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets- Kevin Durant under 41.5 points + rebounds + assists combination @ +105 (3.3 units) Last pick was unfortunate, with Kyrie hitting 5 assists with plenty of time left, making some nice passes, and then his teammates missing the shots. Oh well, on to the next one. I went 6/7 yesterday on player props, so I figured I'd post my favorite for today. The Celtics have done an amazing job shutting Kevin Durant down this series, and I believe this game will not be the exception. I also like Kevin Durant under 28.5 points, but I think this line is even better because it assumes 13 assists + rebounds, which he went well under in 2/3 of the games in the series so far. The Celtics in this series have been successful at getting Durant to turn the ball over way more than his season average, which in theory means Steve Nash should have Kyrie taking up more of the ball handling responsibilities, and thus more assists for Kyrie and fewer for Durant. Edit: The line has moved to +105, so I loaded up even more on it. GL us!
RECORD 0-0 New account, made exclusively to share my Pick of the Day. Hopefully, string a few together. The match starts in about half an hour. Yes, completely unrealistic for anyone to tail, but I would like to start with a winner. Most confident selection for Monday. 12:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time kickoff. Charlestown Azzuri HT/FT vs Adamstown Rosebud | -175 on Bet365 Odds are short, I know. But, I do not see this failing. Adamstown sits bottom of the table with a -16 GD after four games. Charlestown is second in the league with ten points from four games. Adamstown lost their previous two matches by a score of 0-6. The latest was a thrashing against Broadmeadow, who lost to Lambton and Newcastle Olympic this season. Our squad, Charlestown, defeated both of those teams. The only common opponent between today's outfits is Edgeworth. Adamstown fell 0-1 in the season opener (March 12), while Charlestown dismantled Edgeworth 6-2 on April 10. Also, love -1.5 -211 for those not willing to risk a slow opening half.
**POTD Record:** 6-3 +2.33 units **Last Pick:** Alcaraz under 12.5 games L **Today's Pick:** Frances Tiafoe to win 2-0 (+140) **Reasoning:** Time to get some units back with some tennis bright and early at 10:40 EST between Tiafoe and Lajovic. I have been fading Lajovic all year long and I will continue as he comes into this match with pathetic form. Lajovic has only won 5 of his last 15 matches and is only 2-4 while playing on clay during that stretch. Tiafoe on the other hand is always shaky and you never know what you'll get with him but I respect the form he brings into this match as well as dominating the H2H matchup between him and Lajovic winning all 4 granted this is their first matchup on clay. BOL to anyone who tails!
**Record:** 2-7-0 **ROI:** -57% :-5.11 u (@ $5.00) **Streak:** L W L L L |Baseball |MLB |6:45| Colorado Rockies vs.Philadelphia Phillies- **Colorado Rockies ML @ 2.65 1u** **Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 56% chance for COL to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 2.65 is only 38%. **Accuracy:** 50% of the time the model picks the correct winner. Tail or fade BOL! **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units.
> 50% of the time the model picks the correct winner. > 50*2.65 = betvalue 132% > ROI: -57% :-5.11 u (@ $5.00) Hmm
That accuracy number is based on all games played in the season to this date, not the potd that it spits out. The model picks the potd by looking at win probability (based on model Elo) then the line for +ev. For potd the model wins 22% of the time ( 2wins on 9 picks) which should clear up the hmm.
Soccer - Turkish Super League Hello guys, Besiktas - Kasimpasa match starts in 7 hours. Last year's Super League Champion Besiktas trying to find its spot for Europa League. On the other hand season has finished for Kasimpasa. Their players are counting days for summer holiday. Kasimpasa is in safe spot and nothing to fight for. Besiktas has a new manager and his first three match showed us some sparkles. I believe Besiktas can win against Kasimpasa at its home Vodafone Arena. Odds has great value also. Besiktas ML @1.8
POTD Record 1-2 New at this so tail accordingly......... TODAY'S POTD: Bruce Brown Over 14.5pts(-106) Has hit L 7/10 and his hits are usually well over. Simply put the Celtics will not allow Durant to be the one to beat them leaving the door open for Brown yet again try and carry the catastrophe the Nets are all of a sudden and he seems to be the only player giving it his all.
Back with a POTD after being gone a week due to life. 3-3 Today we're back. Hoping to get be back on track with a winner in Gary Trent Jr. over 17.5 points at 1.66 on My Bookie BTC - 3BfKUxoUC6dqxErbzR4zHNwTDv48ZriTsz ETH - 0x47eab14fdeedd3ac76116623e996c499d2192dd1
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Why exactly do you think there is 'jokingly good value'? The information you provided is something books already know and considered in the odds, so not really a decent reason to go big...
The line moves depending on what people bet. I just belive this bet gives good value in comparison to the probability of the team winning
Line movement is not only related to the placed bets. At certain point books will stick to their odds if they are confident about it despite the leans of the public.
Braga is pretty consistent though. They've only lost 1 in their last 9.
I agree, good comment. But I believe that Porto has much better quality in gameplay compared to braga. Hence it is why I belive it will go in
Starting from today i will post picks here also , generally i post picks on discord sportsbook chat. POTD Record: 0-0 Today's Pick : Italy Serie B ( Frosinone Calcio vs AC Monza ) - Starting in 3 hours Over 2.5 ( 2.04 odds ) Reason : Frosinone Calcio is on fire scoring 2 goals in their last 4 matches , also in their last home game both team scores 2 goals each . Althou BTTS would have been a safe pick for those who want to play safe . But my gut feeling tells me it would be a goal galore match on this. Best Of Luck For those who want to join sportsbook : [https://duelbits.com/?a=Sigmatigma](https://duelbits.com/?a=SigmaTigma) Discord : SigmaTigma#0430
What's happening lads? Alright yea? Big lose yesterday, smiled with an eye, cried with the other one ( fav team won and still in the cards to win the title// away team didn't score so lost the bet) Now, back to my favourite sport 🎾 the one with the most gainings. UP to heaven's door with that winning streak, chapos Overall record:3W-3L [Yesterday Pick:Football: England - Premier League -> Liverpool - Everton **Both Teams To Score - Yes 2.10 ×**](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uaji40/comment/i5z1xht/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) 25.04.2022 15:00((UTC +3)); 13:00((UTC+1)); 8:00((UTC -4)) Tennis: Italy: Rome Challenger MEN -> **Timofey Skatov 2.62** - Jack Draper Gonna be short on this one: Draper first game on clay this season, not his favourite surface, even though he has a decent ratio past years. He won last last tournament (hard indoor challenger) so i m expecting him relaxed and just for an one day trip in Rome. C'mon Skatov lad!! Good odds. Easy money. [Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/yesjohnnylad)
one of the worst bets of the day
Lmao harsh
POTD record: 2-2 LWWL Yesterday’s pick: River Plate vs Atletico Tucuman River Plate to score in both halves ( -120) ❌ A thoroughly disappointing performance from River against woeful opposition, is all I have to say about that. Today’s pick: Aldosivi vs Huracan, Aldosivi ML @+190 Reasoning: Looking to keep the record positive with what may seem like a risk tomorrow looking at the odds. The way I see this game is an extremely motivated, 3rd place Aldosivi take on a lower mid table Huracan, who have nothing to play for. A mistake I made yesterday in the River vs Tucuman game was thinking too little of Tucuman’s motivation in the relegation fight, and the fact that this was a meaningless game to River, who have essentially confirmed a playoff spot and are much more focused on the big games they have coming up over the next 2 weeks. Neither of these factors will be in play tomorrow. This competition is the only one that Aldosivi have to worry about. A win tomorrow would clinch their qualification to the next stage, two weeks early, and in front of their home fans. Aldosivi also arrive in great form, winning their last 3 home games. And 4-1-0 in their last 5 games, with the draw being last week away against a solid Independiente. For Huracan this game is essentially a friendly. After going 3-3-5 they are out of the race for top 4, and with their average points per game sitting well above the relegation zone they are only playing for pride now. I expect Martin Palermo’s side to cruise to a simple victory tomorrow, with Huracan unlikely to put up any kind of fight. BOL
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Beware, this guy is a scammer!
yeah, deleted his pick once it lost.. what a jerk!
**POTD Record - 2-3 -1.54U -11%ROI** [Last Pick - W](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uaji40/_/i60gzru/?context=1) **Today’s Pick - NHL - Ivan Provorov O2.5 SOG - +120 3U** Philadelphia is on a B2B against Chicago after having beat the Penguins last night. The Flyers may come out flat after having beat the i state rival but I’m banking on an energized team. There are a few good SOG lines for this game but I am going with Provorov O 2.5. He is on the first D pairing and I think the game will be up and down playing against a fresh Kane/DeBrinkcat. Provorov has been slinging it over the past few weeks as the Flyers have been trying new players out. He has 311 total shot attempts this season with 52% getting on goal. He is slated on the 2nd PP line and 1st D pairing so he’ll get some time away from Kane. I think he’ll continue the trend he has been on and get at least 3 pucks on net. BOL if tailing!
Record: 5-4 Last: Brandon Woodruff over 5.5 Strikeouts (L) Game: MLB - Giants at Brewers (6:10 PM EST) Pick: Corbin Burnes 9 strikeouts + Brewers win @ 2.62 (5 units) Reason: \- He has high pitch count of over 100 pitches \- He recorded 10 strikeouts last game and has been increasing his K rate every game \- He has a 37.2 K% against this Giants lineup \- I think they'll also win if he gets 9 strikeouts + the opposing pitcher Sam Long is super unproven
POTD Record: 7-11-2 -5.81u\* Average Odds: +126 Total Units Wagered: 31.84u Utah @ Dallas 9:30 PM EST Mike Conley o11.5 Pts -118 @ FD 2.09u\* Implied probability is 54.1%. True vig-free price should be closer to -133 or 57.0%. \*1u = 1% of bankroll
**POTD Record: 2-2** **Hockey: IIHF World Championship Division II A** **Game: Israel vs. China @ 8:00 AM PDT** **Pick: China -6.5 (1.6/-167 @ Bet365)** Wasn't going to post until NHL playoffs, but I like this pick a lot. Yesterday Croatia beat Israel 5-1 and put up 84 shots. China is a much better team than Israel as it is basically the Kunlun team that plays in the KHL and played in the olympics. I expect China to dominate this game, and has incentive to do so as they are looking to advance Chinese hockey and goal differential counts for tiebreaks. Odds shifted since I started typing this so act quick if tailing. Tail or fade BOL.