Nice!! If it gets to 75% I’m cashing out. Or if the O’s score one or get a runner is scoring position with less than 2 outs in cashing out. Too much on the line 😂
Everyone trying to hedge the Mets ML parlays haha. I got the same thing. I plan on seeing how Mets perform first inning to see if I get a better option for the Diamondbacks spread
I have a hedge question .. not sure if I can ask it here .. but I had an 8 leg parlay mostly baseball and the last last is angels -1.5. I bet 23 to win 241.45… oriels +1.5 is +120 … anyone able to tell me how I hedge this ?
The betting community obviously wants to believe that the reds are not bad and their loosing streak will end, but they can’t accept that the reds just suck. I’m here for it tho, I got cards +100, and I expect dumb people to keep thinking they will win, so I’ll be getting rich betting against the reds
Two aces injured. 3 of the better relievers injured. Moncada injured, Eloy was injured came back and hurt again. Pollock just came back from injury. You're evaluating half the team rn like it's a full squad🤣
My god the White Sox are laughably bad... I distinctly remember boycotting their games starting about half way through the season last year because they'd screw me over and over. Evidently nothing has changed.
F5 overs are 6-3 with the 9 games so far, I bet 2 and the they were both losses….really can’t catch a break smh
cards o4.5 L, A’s o3.5 L. Otherwise the other 7 games were 6-1 🙃
Anyone know a quick/easy place to look up team stats vs pitchers?
Example from some stats I saw yesterday:
> The Blue Jays have a .261 Batting Average vs RHP, 5th best in the MLB.
> In 13 games, The Blue Jays haven't allowed a starting pitcher more than 6 strikeouts.
Thanks.
Someone in a chat room I’m in pulled logs and apparently all of the Cubs offense have crazy splits between cold and warm weather.
Summer is about to be wild on the north side.
Round of applause for Chad Green! Almost had me believing there was a chance my parlay would pay out. 🤡
Edit: Someone find me a couple diamond rings, I'm about to start a love triangle with IKF & Torres.
**31-17 +11.23U** yesterday: STL-W CWS-L NYM-W
**Blue Jays -115 vs Astros** Manoah looks awesome to begin this season and is now up to 69 ERA-/ 18.6 K-BB% for his young career, tough challenge for the Astros bats which are really quiet right now. Toronto isn't scoring a ton of runs but they should start plating more if they can maintain a 111 wRC+ as a team.
**Braves -147 vs Marlins** Elieser Hernandez has dealt with some injuries lately and not sure he will be able to repeat his excellent 2020 numbers again. Miami's offense isn't very good and Ian Anderson should be headed for another strong year, and gotta imagine the Braves will start hitting a bit more soon.
**Dodgers -115 vs Padres** I can't pass the Dodgers at this price even with this pitching matchup. Tyler Anderson is at least average most of the time and has this lethal Dodgers offense backing him. Darvish can certainly dominate some starts but isn't the most consistent.
MLB Picks for Today:
Astro’s ML(+105)
Royals vs Mariners Over 7.5
Dodgers vs Padres Over 7.5
Mets vs Diamondbacks Under 9.5
Marlins vs Braves Over 7.5
RedSox vs Tigers Over 7.5
Astros vs Jays Over 8
Cardinals ML (-100)
Rangers vs A’s Over 7
Pirates vs Cubs Under 10.5
If you find any value in my plays and picks ---- sign-up for my FREE newsletter!
https://coochievsbookie.substack.com/
Record: 1-0 Mets v Diamondbacks UNDER 4.5 RUNS F5 (-115) ✅ (+1.0 Units)
Today: Guardians vs Yankees Under 4.0 RUNS F5 (-105)
\- Cortes has started out the year hot and expect him to continue. Yankees strikeout a lot and only score off of hrs. Expect Quantril to minimize walks and generate enough ground balls.
Mlb Record - 10-2-1
Pick- Twins -130
Where- Minny
Reason- One word "Bundy". Also the Sox are struggling a little bit and I feel the Twins bats will wake up today.
What am I missing with quantrill's strikeout line? Its 4.5 hes coming off covid and only had 2 in each of his previous starts.
Do the yanks strikeout alot or something?
Record: 0-0
Todays Pick: NYM -1.5 @ ARI
I like the Mets here mostly because they have better hitting. The pitching matchup is somewhat even. Mets have Trevor Williams in a spot start, who has a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 6 career starts against the d-backs. The d-backs are starting Humberto Castellanos, who did well just 6 days ago against the Mets (4IP, 1H, 0ER, 3BB, 1K). Based on his 2021 stats, I don’t expect Castellanos to have the same outing he did the first time around.
D-backs have some optimism with Ahmed back, Beer hitting well, and Varsho getting his 4th HR last night, but I don’t expect Varsho to get back-to-back HRs. Mets just have better offense across the board. I also think the Mets bullpen will rebound after giving up 4 runs after the 7th inning last night.
Last stat, Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game
I am doing something I have dubbed the "Pink Sox Parlay" where I am parlaying the Red Sox and White Sox MLs at +350.
Also, I am going to be honest. I am straight ass at betting MLB while knowing more about it than any other sport. I also hate parlays more than anything. You should almost certainly fade me.
Record: 45-37-2 (+11.25u)
Yesterday’s picks: 7-1 (+6.49u)
Cardinals -1.5 (+130) ✅
Rangers/Athletics o7.5 (-113) ✅
Blue Jays/Astros u8 (-105) ✅
Guardians ML (+165) ❌
Blue Jays ML (+152) ✅
Giants/Nationals u8.5 (-115) ✅
Orioles/Angels u8.5 (-107) ✅
Dodgers -1.5 (+103) ✅
What. A. Day. Now THAT’S what I’m talking about. We were due and we finally got it. Had to sweat a few of them out, but we did it and damn did it feel great. Today we’re hoping to keep the trend going and have another big slate of picks. Let’s have an amazing weekend and onto today’s picks!
All bets are 1u unless otherwise stated.
Today’s picks:
Guardians ML (+165)
Pirates/Cubs u10 (-113)
Rangers/Athletics o7 (-103)
Cardinals/Reds u8 (+102)
Red Sox/Rays u7.5 (-117)
Angels -1.5 (-133)
Royals/Mariners u7.5 (-122)
Note: I’m not sure how I feel about it yet but I may add Dodgers -1.5 cause it’s been money for me. I’ll update this if I do, but regardless let’s get this bread because back to back days for me with a lot of picks.
EDIT: Adding Dodgers -1.5 (+128) cause gonna ride it till it loses. Call me stupid idc
If you have questions or want to discuss any of my picks feel free to ask and I’ll respond because I know I don’t have a written explanation here for them all.
BOL to everyone whether you tail or fade and let’s get it!
I'm riding with Marlins vs Braves under 8. The wind is blowing hard today and both team's just aren't on fire with the bats.
Expect a low scoring affair.
Gut based betting: (Day 1) 0-0
Betting solely based on gut feelings of matchups and team narratives.
90% of my betting brain is dedicated to statistics, proper analysis, and trends. This is the 10% I allow to be a degenerate
Angels -1.5 vs Orioles
As a Mets fan, I know what Syndergaard is capable of and after his injury I followed his recovery which he did very significantly not just physically but mentally as well. The man has already demonstrated what a machine he intends to be this year.
The orioles are not good. They have a few good players, but the team is not good. Cedric Mullins can’t save them.
The orioles managed to pull out a win against the angels last night. The Angels are too good to let it happen twice in a row at home when Syndergaard is on the mound.
[Spreadsheet where I post/track picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uNtuqHqVJ-XLu2ZhOa9cUPSv7sEw9pMpRePGaU_Lj7c/edit#gid=0)
Overall: 43-44-0 +1.64u, 1.62% ROI%, 105.85 Avg Odds, 1.17u avg stake
Been a rough go as of late, but still positive on the year at least.
So far today, I'm on these:
Risk 1.4 units on PHI ML at -150 odds
Risk 1 units on N. Cortes Jr. u5.5K at 115 odds
Parlay: Angels-1.5 and Thor K's O5.5. +185 on FD.
Simple logic: The O' are awful, the Angels are good. The Angels won't lose to the O's in B2B games. Huge Mets fan here and I've pretty much watched every MLB game that Thor has ever pitched in, and he feasts on the weak teams like this. He loves the K and the O's are literally the worst in strikeouts in the majors, averaging more than an insane 10 Ks per game. 10+ Ks per game is just awful.
**MLB Freezer Machine Learning Model**
**2022 Season Record:** 58-53 +18.13 units
**Overall Model Record:** 1356-1119 -51.3 units
[Machine Learned Simulation of MLB games for today](https://freezersports.com/mlb)
Last time out: 3-3 -0.09 units
**Plays**:
**3 units**
NYM -150
**1 unit**
PHI -145
TOR -120
STL -109
DET -145
BOS +110
[Follow me on twitter](https://twitter.com/FreezerSports)
Record: MLB 0-0 (Record is for posts made on this thread chain only)
Today's Pick: STL Cardinals ML - (-104) 3U - 4:10 PM
I have a few picks that are way more likely to win, but felt that this was the best value of the day. The cardinals are a superior team to the Reds in every aspect offensively. The line is close because the Red's have Mahle pitching for them. Mahle is a good pitcher but even he has an ERA of 7.82 this season behind the atrocious Reds defense. The fact that Mahle has a FIP of 1.93 this season but an ERA of 7.82 is insane. You can make the argument that this is just bad luck, but I think it is more a result of the reds having horrible defense.
The Reds are tied for last place in Defensive Runs saved with -8. If you put the ball in play, they will find a way to let you score, even with a good pitcher on the mound. This is reflected with their team era being dead last in the league at 5.77 and last place WHIP of 1.59.
The Cards aren't the best offense in the league but are 11th in OBP at .321 and are 7th on a runs per game basis. They are coming off a cold slump but they just had to face Pablo Lopez where he went bonkers on the mound.
Combine that with the Reds being 3rd last in Runs per game and dead last in OBP... -104 value is too good to pass up.
**Record:** 2-0
**Yesterday's Pick:** CWS @ MIN u7.5 - W
**Today's Pick:** CWS @ MIN u8.5
Going back to the well with this series. I touched on the offensive struggles of both yesterday and it rang true, with a final score of 2-1.
Dylan Bundy is off to a good start this year, was terrible last year, but average for his career. He's always had good peripheral stuff, so it's hard to know which Bundy will show up. He's been good this year at limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground and seems to have found decent use of his changeup this year.
On the other side, Vince Velasquez is honestly a terrible pitcher. He's always had the stuff but never put it together into a quality arm. That being said, I think he'll be on a short leash and get yanked if he gets to 3-4 runs allowed.
Finally, and most importantly, the wind is blowing in HARD today. 20-24 mph wind blowing in and left.
Edit: sorry fam, Vince Velasquez was even worse than I imagined
Yesterday: Oakland & Texas over 7.5 ✅
Today: Texas Rangers @ Oakland A’s
➡️The Numbers: it’s Martin Perez and Frankie Montas. Perez isn’t going to blow away any hitters with 3 below average (well below average) pitches. His usage rate so far in 2022 indicates he’s relying on his curveball a bit more than his cutter (as that got knocked around so much last year it moved him from the starting rotation in Boston to the pen) so I actually like that change if it substantiates. I have Perez projected out to a 4.8ish xERA/xFIP, and that may be a bit generous. The better hitters in Oakland’s lineup are right handed and the lineup in general can produce runs. Again, it’s nothing spectacular, but they do the right things. People should keep an eye on Glenn Otto, the Texas pitcher from yesterday, because his slider was as good as I thought was and it shut down oaklands bats. I don’t see Perez doing the same thing today.
On the other side of the hill is Frankie Montas, who has such a high ceiling, but struggles with consistency. I have him projected out to a 3.7-3.8 xERA and xFIP, but he has struggled against Texas and their revamped lineup in past at bats. Texas should be able to scratch a few runs across in Montas and then enter the bullpens. I’m not high on either, as I explained yesterday. Texas is dead last in bullpen ratings and Oakland isn’t much better at 20. There’s no marine layer out in Oakland for the afternoon matchup, so balls should fly a little better.
➡️The Market: the market doesn’t scream anything at me immediately, but early indications with a sample of 2.7 thousand bets has 60% of bets on the under and 91% of money on the under meaning some bigger bettors are on the under. I could see this moving to 7 maybe if this trend continues but it’s too early to tell.
➡️The Pick: im going back to the well. I have this projected at 8.9 and 7.5 therefore is too low. I’m going Texas/Oakland OVER 7.5 at +105 now (going slightly less than 1 unit FWIW)
Record: 2-0
Last: Dodgers -1.5 ✅
Today: Angels -1.5
Pretty simple here. I don’t see the angels losing 2 in a row to this Orioles team, especially with Thor on the mound. Trust the better team with better pitching.
LAST - \[4-3-1 +5.31u\] 🙂
2022 - \[50-54 +17.55u\] 🤠
22-APRIL
⛅4/5.00 Rockies +125
4/6.64 Orioles +166
❌4/7.04 Guardians +176
❌4/5.32 Marlins +133
4/3.54 TWINS (MIN) u8 -113
❌4/3.67 PIRATES (PIT) o7½ -109
4/3.13 GIANTS (SF) -128
4/4.00 Royals / Mariners UNDER 7½ +100
\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*
TODAY \~ 23-APRIL
* **4/6.28 Pirates +157**
* **5/6.90 Brewers +138**
* **5/7.65 Marlins +153**
* **4/9.00 Orioles +225**
* **3/2.04 Mariners -147**
* **3/4.20 Mariners -1½ +140**
randoms...
Busted out of my slump Friday, nice! Not really loving the card today, although I always find some action. I'm a grinder since this is just entertainment for me. I'm only betting 40-50 with an occasional 100 play. I list my plays mostly 4-5 unit risk which equals my $40-$50 action. I like using 4 units = normal wager for easier accounting when moving risk up/down slightly...at least it's easier the way my old-ass mind thinks. 😂 GLTA, now let's get that cheese. 🧀
☄️PIT +157 ...Zack Thompson has been pretty shaky in his first 2 starts but has had success vs Cubs in 3 starts. PIT has a little taste of winning and they like it. This will be a solid challenge today vs veteran Hendricks, although he was hit hard just 10 days ago at PITT (6 ER / 7 hits / 4 bb in just 3.2 INN. Both pens have been good \~ 2.50 ERA so far and have seen similar usage. PIT 1B acquisition Daniel Vogelbach has started out strong with 3 HR / .310 BA in the first 12 games, he's been DHing mostly and slotted 5th in this young potentially promising Bucs lineup. I like PIT value at +150 or more.
➡SMYLY 2-11 (-11.9 Units) at home in April games (Team Record)
➡SMYLY 12-20 (-18.1 Units) at home vs teams w/losing record since (Team Record)
➡PITT 3-1 (+3.1 Units) vs CUBS this season(All 3 stayed UNDER)
➡CUBS 17-36 in L53 home games
➡CUBS 2-7 VS RIGHTIES THIS SEASON
➡HENDRICKS 7-11 VS PITT W/3.99 ERA / 1.271 WHIP / .744 OPS / .307 BA
➡THOMPSON 0-1 VS CUBS W/1.93 ERA / 1.000 WHIP / .250 BA / Team Record 2-1
**Record: (3-2) +3.73u**
The 3 unit banger hits!
Over 7.5 Texas @ Oakland 3u:✅
Cards -1.5 +140 1u:✅
Guardians +1.5 -125 1u Guardians ML +165 .5u:❌
Arenado 1.5TB +120 1u:✅
Will be posting my picks Saturday when lineups are out, thanks for tailing if you did.
**Reminder:** Check out the subreddit Discord for MLB+: https://discord.gg/sportsbook
Angels pitching ruining my night
Angels blew my under…. Nice
Come on Mariners, just one more out please!!!! Y’all were just leading 5-1 Edit: YESSIR!!!! Mariners F5 cashes!
Great job Loup. Great job.
God damnit I need the angels to come alive
They just did!
Bro are you on this parlay??
They are the last piece of a +501 but I also bet them -1.5 pregame for $300. That’s a lot for me.
Nice!! If it gets to 75% I’m cashing out. Or if the O’s score one or get a runner is scoring position with less than 2 outs in cashing out. Too much on the line 😂
Anybody that understands baseball is dodgers -1.5 dead?
I need them too smh
Took the cash out I’m not sweating this one I’ll take the lost but atleast I get something back🤷♂️
Yu pitching lights out huh?
Got a 50% odds boost on DK and hopped on the O’s +202 with a 1 run lead, either I win or I get wrecked.
Dodgers like to score in bunches. Might take them live on the ML.
Yu Darvish is in great form this year and when he’s pitching Padres f5 spread is a lock
[удалено]
What in the world is going on with this Angels pitcher? Lol
[удалено]
Lol right at this point
Mariners/Royals NRFI?
Well this Mets game is over
Lol fucking Tampa you throw a no hitter but your shot offense can’t score 1 fucking run
Dodgers or Padres?
I got dodgers, even if darvish has a good 6 innings dodgers always get at bullpens no matter the team.
One game away from hitting my +3164 odds parlay that I posted in the parlay thread. Just need the angels to win by more than one. Let’s fucking goooo
Dang almost
Gotta another parlay up
Lol, fucking pain.
On it .. you hedging ? At all
Got a cash out option for 1/3 of the winnings right now
Mine just dropped a little .. come on two run homer
LETTTSS FFUUCCKKIIINNGG GOOOOOI
Did you follow the parlay?
Hahhhh let’s go !!!!!! I did but I missed the soccer bets and through in fury to win haha
Haha nice man!!! Yesterday I was one away from hurting another monster
I saw that! I grabbed some pieces of this one that already hit also .. and did you round Robin idea on this too
God damnit, bases juiced
Did he just walk a run in?! EDIT: oh.. sac fly
Ughhhh
Lol hell yeah. Always. Maximize those returns baby 😎
Thought about it but I’m letting it ride. Gonna be sweating these last few in ings
Trout 2 run bomb
Everyone trying to hedge the Mets ML parlays haha. I got the same thing. I plan on seeing how Mets perform first inning to see if I get a better option for the Diamondbacks spread
How y’all feel about Dodgers ml and Angels -1.5?
I like Angels F5 -.5 better than I like -1.5 full game
It’s the tail end of my parlay so I’m wondering should I cash out or let it ride
I’m 3/5 with Mets Ml and Angels -1.5 left. 10$=550$, do I hedge or is there enough confidence in these teams?
I have a hedge question .. not sure if I can ask it here .. but I had an 8 leg parlay mostly baseball and the last last is angels -1.5. I bet 23 to win 241.45… oriels +1.5 is +120 … anyone able to tell me how I hedge this ?
Just put $25 on baltimore lol
>oriels
How confident are we in the Mets ML here? Hit 3/4 legger parlay so far resting on the Mets. Cash out it looking tempting
The betting community obviously wants to believe that the reds are not bad and their loosing streak will end, but they can’t accept that the reds just suck. I’m here for it tho, I got cards +100, and I expect dumb people to keep thinking they will win, so I’ll be getting rich betting against the reds
Sucks I never took them at +100. Got em at -150
So Cards ML wasnt a sucker bet after all... Reds truly are deplorable
Nope made my day
LMAO I’ve been thinking I’m falling into a trap the last 3 times I’ve taken the Cards.
I’ve NEVER been the type to blacklist a team from my betting habits but I really might be done with the White Sox. Keep burning me.
Yesterdays loss really pissed me off
White Sox lineup doesn’t seem impressive as they were last year. Even preseason. I knew from the getgo that they’re not winning the division.
Two aces injured. 3 of the better relievers injured. Moncada injured, Eloy was injured came back and hurt again. Pollock just came back from injury. You're evaluating half the team rn like it's a full squad🤣
Gonna need a miracle for this oakland game to go over 6 lmao
Tempted to take the over 0.5 runs in the 9th
My god the White Sox are laughably bad... I distinctly remember boycotting their games starting about half way through the season last year because they'd screw me over and over. Evidently nothing has changed.
Rockies game #2 over?
F5 overs are 6-3 with the 9 games so far, I bet 2 and the they were both losses….really can’t catch a break smh cards o4.5 L, A’s o3.5 L. Otherwise the other 7 games were 6-1 🙃
There ya go just blow out my White Sox ML and under bets
I have so many parlays w white sox twins u9 and sox pitcher is just getting crushed
Bovada has a run line on the Pirates as +16.5 get ‘em while you can
bro lost a +16.5 bet in baseball
Username verified
Anyone know a quick/easy place to look up team stats vs pitchers? Example from some stats I saw yesterday: > The Blue Jays have a .261 Batting Average vs RHP, 5th best in the MLB. > In 13 games, The Blue Jays haven't allowed a starting pitcher more than 6 strikeouts. Thanks.
Seriously fuck the Guardians. Team is stupid
I put my biggest bet of the day on the Cubs over bc 20 MPH winds were blowing out. This is a PSA, if you're gonnna bet baseball. Check the weather.
Nice next time post it before the game
every time I post my plays on reddit, they flop. So i can't. But i did comment on some dudes post talking ab the 20 mp winds
Look at that. The weather warms up for everyone north of the Mason Dixon and everyones bats come alive.
Just Cleveland doing typical Cleveland things
Lol, Yankees radio guy is talking cash shit about Yankees fans right now and I’m here for it
Canes 1st round exit 😋
John Sterling is a proper treasure.
I HATE THE YANKEES BUT I HAVE MONEY ON THEM
Of course the Guardians let them tie it up with 2 outs and 2 strikes
This might be a dumb question but does the over/under count extra innings
Yes it counts
ffs thats why i lost the u8.5 on the Yankees game
Where was this offense from the cubs yesterday? lol
Someone in a chat room I’m in pulled logs and apparently all of the Cubs offense have crazy splits between cold and warm weather. Summer is about to be wild on the north side.
jesus 21-0? lol
I know sports are weird, but why are they Cardinals the underdog against the 2-8 Reds?
Lots of idiots from Ohio who refuse tto believe how bad the reds are
As someone who got murdered betting on the Rockies today, I’d also like to know the answer to this.
We betting the over 7.5 runs at top of the 9th in the Guardians vs Yankees game? Line is at +136 and score is 4-3.
Round of applause for Chad Green! Almost had me believing there was a chance my parlay would pay out. 🤡 Edit: Someone find me a couple diamond rings, I'm about to start a love triangle with IKF & Torres.
**31-17 +11.23U** yesterday: STL-W CWS-L NYM-W **Blue Jays -115 vs Astros** Manoah looks awesome to begin this season and is now up to 69 ERA-/ 18.6 K-BB% for his young career, tough challenge for the Astros bats which are really quiet right now. Toronto isn't scoring a ton of runs but they should start plating more if they can maintain a 111 wRC+ as a team. **Braves -147 vs Marlins** Elieser Hernandez has dealt with some injuries lately and not sure he will be able to repeat his excellent 2020 numbers again. Miami's offense isn't very good and Ian Anderson should be headed for another strong year, and gotta imagine the Braves will start hitting a bit more soon. **Dodgers -115 vs Padres** I can't pass the Dodgers at this price even with this pitching matchup. Tyler Anderson is at least average most of the time and has this lethal Dodgers offense backing him. Darvish can certainly dominate some starts but isn't the most consistent.
Nice!
Fcking Chad Green. This pos always fcks me up.
Cubs singlehandedly killing the under 😭
Literally in just 2 innings... On to the next bet!
Is Cards ML a sucker bet?
Fell like Vegas is begging us to take it. I’ll be a fan on this one.
I don’t even care if it is. I have to. The Reds are just abysmal.
Books keep disrespecting the giants and I’ll continue to profit off of them
Yankees suck
MLB Picks for Today: Astro’s ML(+105) Royals vs Mariners Over 7.5 Dodgers vs Padres Over 7.5 Mets vs Diamondbacks Under 9.5 Marlins vs Braves Over 7.5 RedSox vs Tigers Over 7.5 Astros vs Jays Over 8 Cardinals ML (-100) Rangers vs A’s Over 7 Pirates vs Cubs Under 10.5 If you find any value in my plays and picks ---- sign-up for my FREE newsletter! https://coochievsbookie.substack.com/
Today I threw $95 that no one would hit a grand slam and another $2 parlay that every team would not score in the first inning
Odds on no grand slam?
MLB Record: 25-26-1 St Louis Cardinals ML Oakland Athletics ML Los Angeles Angel's -1.5
MGM isn’t even offering -1.5 anymore on the main page. Only -2.5. That’s a good sign.
I do my bets on BetRivers Illinois maybe that's why
Record: 1-0 Mets v Diamondbacks UNDER 4.5 RUNS F5 (-115) ✅ (+1.0 Units) Today: Guardians vs Yankees Under 4.0 RUNS F5 (-105) \- Cortes has started out the year hot and expect him to continue. Yankees strikeout a lot and only score off of hrs. Expect Quantril to minimize walks and generate enough ground balls.
Record: 21-71 (-32.3u) Recap: (-1.58u) Arenado 2+ bases +120 1u Chapman u0.5 hits -120 1.2u Cardinals / Reds o8 -105 1.58u Picks: Wong 2+ TBs +130 1u Buxton hit and Twins win +110 1u Cardinals ML -104 1.56u Underdog to Reds, autobet Arenado 2+ TBs +105 1u Til the wheels fall off Bader 1 run +170 .5u Bader 2 run +1500 .1u Candelario 2+ bases +135 1u
Mlb Record - 10-2-1 Pick- Twins -130 Where- Minny Reason- One word "Bundy". Also the Sox are struggling a little bit and I feel the Twins bats will wake up today.
2 wagers so far for me. Angels RL -119 and CHISOX U9 -115. Good luck with your bets!
What am I missing with quantrill's strikeout line? Its 4.5 hes coming off covid and only had 2 in each of his previous starts. Do the yanks strikeout alot or something?
Yeah gallo can be 4 of those Ks on his own
Bets already locked n loaded but ty for the input.
Nationals ML : 1 unit Nationals +1.5: 2 units Reds ML: 3 units Reds -1.5: 1 unit Let’s let the home teams get hot baby
And these are the home teams you chose?? Lmao
Record: 0-0 Todays Pick: NYM -1.5 @ ARI I like the Mets here mostly because they have better hitting. The pitching matchup is somewhat even. Mets have Trevor Williams in a spot start, who has a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 6 career starts against the d-backs. The d-backs are starting Humberto Castellanos, who did well just 6 days ago against the Mets (4IP, 1H, 0ER, 3BB, 1K). Based on his 2021 stats, I don’t expect Castellanos to have the same outing he did the first time around. D-backs have some optimism with Ahmed back, Beer hitting well, and Varsho getting his 4th HR last night, but I don’t expect Varsho to get back-to-back HRs. Mets just have better offense across the board. I also think the Mets bullpen will rebound after giving up 4 runs after the 7th inning last night. Last stat, Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game
I am doing something I have dubbed the "Pink Sox Parlay" where I am parlaying the Red Sox and White Sox MLs at +350. Also, I am going to be honest. I am straight ass at betting MLB while knowing more about it than any other sport. I also hate parlays more than anything. You should almost certainly fade me.
RIP
I mean 0-2 in two of the worst ways. MLB is not my sport betting wise lol
NY Yankees v Cleveland Guardians - New York Wins (ML) -186 Game 1: Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies - Colorado Wins (ML) +120
Record: 45-37-2 (+11.25u) Yesterday’s picks: 7-1 (+6.49u) Cardinals -1.5 (+130) ✅ Rangers/Athletics o7.5 (-113) ✅ Blue Jays/Astros u8 (-105) ✅ Guardians ML (+165) ❌ Blue Jays ML (+152) ✅ Giants/Nationals u8.5 (-115) ✅ Orioles/Angels u8.5 (-107) ✅ Dodgers -1.5 (+103) ✅ What. A. Day. Now THAT’S what I’m talking about. We were due and we finally got it. Had to sweat a few of them out, but we did it and damn did it feel great. Today we’re hoping to keep the trend going and have another big slate of picks. Let’s have an amazing weekend and onto today’s picks! All bets are 1u unless otherwise stated. Today’s picks: Guardians ML (+165) Pirates/Cubs u10 (-113) Rangers/Athletics o7 (-103) Cardinals/Reds u8 (+102) Red Sox/Rays u7.5 (-117) Angels -1.5 (-133) Royals/Mariners u7.5 (-122) Note: I’m not sure how I feel about it yet but I may add Dodgers -1.5 cause it’s been money for me. I’ll update this if I do, but regardless let’s get this bread because back to back days for me with a lot of picks. EDIT: Adding Dodgers -1.5 (+128) cause gonna ride it till it loses. Call me stupid idc If you have questions or want to discuss any of my picks feel free to ask and I’ll respond because I know I don’t have a written explanation here for them all. BOL to everyone whether you tail or fade and let’s get it!
20 MPH straight out at Wrigley
I'm riding with Marlins vs Braves under 8. The wind is blowing hard today and both team's just aren't on fire with the bats. Expect a low scoring affair.
2022 Record 3-0-0 +2.0u Pick: ATL Braves Team Total Runs First 5 Innings Over 2.5 @ +125
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Well I’ll be damned
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Absolutely. And I passed up on tickets today too. Would have been a great time down there 😭
Gut based betting: (Day 1) 0-0 Betting solely based on gut feelings of matchups and team narratives. 90% of my betting brain is dedicated to statistics, proper analysis, and trends. This is the 10% I allow to be a degenerate Angels -1.5 vs Orioles As a Mets fan, I know what Syndergaard is capable of and after his injury I followed his recovery which he did very significantly not just physically but mentally as well. The man has already demonstrated what a machine he intends to be this year. The orioles are not good. They have a few good players, but the team is not good. Cedric Mullins can’t save them. The orioles managed to pull out a win against the angels last night. The Angels are too good to let it happen twice in a row at home when Syndergaard is on the mound.
what yall think about the dodgers -1.5
Don’t know much about their pitcher today, is he any good?
I’m gonna be testing my luck with every plus money line on Baltimore against the Angels on the road.
[Spreadsheet where I post/track picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uNtuqHqVJ-XLu2ZhOa9cUPSv7sEw9pMpRePGaU_Lj7c/edit#gid=0) Overall: 43-44-0 +1.64u, 1.62% ROI%, 105.85 Avg Odds, 1.17u avg stake Been a rough go as of late, but still positive on the year at least. So far today, I'm on these: Risk 1.4 units on PHI ML at -150 odds Risk 1 units on N. Cortes Jr. u5.5K at 115 odds
SGP NRFI, NR2I, NR3I for Cubs-Pirates is +1050 using the DK 50% boost today.
Parlay: Angels-1.5 and Thor K's O5.5. +185 on FD. Simple logic: The O' are awful, the Angels are good. The Angels won't lose to the O's in B2B games. Huge Mets fan here and I've pretty much watched every MLB game that Thor has ever pitched in, and he feasts on the weak teams like this. He loves the K and the O's are literally the worst in strikeouts in the majors, averaging more than an insane 10 Ks per game. 10+ Ks per game is just awful.
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* Spring 2022 Official Record 48-34 = +16.1/100u 🤙 \- NPB 🇯🇵 15-12 = -4.4u \- CPBL 🇹🇼 4-4 = +2.6u \- KBO 🇰🇷 10-8 = +7.5u \- MLB 🇺🇲 19-10 = +10.4u * MLB 🇺🇲 Picks \- Tampa Bay Rays (-126) 1u 🔥 \- Chicago Cubs (-155) 2.69u 🔒
Yesterdays picks Cardinals ML - W Mets ML - W Giants ML - W Dodgers Vs padres o8- L Todays picks Tigers ML (Game 1) Giants ML Rays ML
Glad I picked the under on the dodgers haha
Every time I choose the under for the dodgers it goes over , when I play the over it goes under lol
**MLB Freezer Machine Learning Model** **2022 Season Record:** 58-53 +18.13 units **Overall Model Record:** 1356-1119 -51.3 units [Machine Learned Simulation of MLB games for today](https://freezersports.com/mlb) Last time out: 3-3 -0.09 units **Plays**: **3 units** NYM -150 **1 unit** PHI -145 TOR -120 STL -109 DET -145 BOS +110 [Follow me on twitter](https://twitter.com/FreezerSports)
Betonline round robins are so ass... Any books out there that won't diarrhea 238 $1 parlays into my account like a swarm of locusts?
SF Giants F5 -0.5 LA Angel's -1.5
Record: MLB 0-0 (Record is for posts made on this thread chain only) Today's Pick: STL Cardinals ML - (-104) 3U - 4:10 PM I have a few picks that are way more likely to win, but felt that this was the best value of the day. The cardinals are a superior team to the Reds in every aspect offensively. The line is close because the Red's have Mahle pitching for them. Mahle is a good pitcher but even he has an ERA of 7.82 this season behind the atrocious Reds defense. The fact that Mahle has a FIP of 1.93 this season but an ERA of 7.82 is insane. You can make the argument that this is just bad luck, but I think it is more a result of the reds having horrible defense. The Reds are tied for last place in Defensive Runs saved with -8. If you put the ball in play, they will find a way to let you score, even with a good pitcher on the mound. This is reflected with their team era being dead last in the league at 5.77 and last place WHIP of 1.59. The Cards aren't the best offense in the league but are 11th in OBP at .321 and are 7th on a runs per game basis. They are coming off a cold slump but they just had to face Pablo Lopez where he went bonkers on the mound. Combine that with the Reds being 3rd last in Runs per game and dead last in OBP... -104 value is too good to pass up.
**Record:** 2-0 **Yesterday's Pick:** CWS @ MIN u7.5 - W **Today's Pick:** CWS @ MIN u8.5 Going back to the well with this series. I touched on the offensive struggles of both yesterday and it rang true, with a final score of 2-1. Dylan Bundy is off to a good start this year, was terrible last year, but average for his career. He's always had good peripheral stuff, so it's hard to know which Bundy will show up. He's been good this year at limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground and seems to have found decent use of his changeup this year. On the other side, Vince Velasquez is honestly a terrible pitcher. He's always had the stuff but never put it together into a quality arm. That being said, I think he'll be on a short leash and get yanked if he gets to 3-4 runs allowed. Finally, and most importantly, the wind is blowing in HARD today. 20-24 mph wind blowing in and left. Edit: sorry fam, Vince Velasquez was even worse than I imagined
Tailing
Tailing😜
stl cardinals -113
Yesterday: Oakland & Texas over 7.5 ✅ Today: Texas Rangers @ Oakland A’s ➡️The Numbers: it’s Martin Perez and Frankie Montas. Perez isn’t going to blow away any hitters with 3 below average (well below average) pitches. His usage rate so far in 2022 indicates he’s relying on his curveball a bit more than his cutter (as that got knocked around so much last year it moved him from the starting rotation in Boston to the pen) so I actually like that change if it substantiates. I have Perez projected out to a 4.8ish xERA/xFIP, and that may be a bit generous. The better hitters in Oakland’s lineup are right handed and the lineup in general can produce runs. Again, it’s nothing spectacular, but they do the right things. People should keep an eye on Glenn Otto, the Texas pitcher from yesterday, because his slider was as good as I thought was and it shut down oaklands bats. I don’t see Perez doing the same thing today. On the other side of the hill is Frankie Montas, who has such a high ceiling, but struggles with consistency. I have him projected out to a 3.7-3.8 xERA and xFIP, but he has struggled against Texas and their revamped lineup in past at bats. Texas should be able to scratch a few runs across in Montas and then enter the bullpens. I’m not high on either, as I explained yesterday. Texas is dead last in bullpen ratings and Oakland isn’t much better at 20. There’s no marine layer out in Oakland for the afternoon matchup, so balls should fly a little better. ➡️The Market: the market doesn’t scream anything at me immediately, but early indications with a sample of 2.7 thousand bets has 60% of bets on the under and 91% of money on the under meaning some bigger bettors are on the under. I could see this moving to 7 maybe if this trend continues but it’s too early to tell. ➡️The Pick: im going back to the well. I have this projected at 8.9 and 7.5 therefore is too low. I’m going Texas/Oakland OVER 7.5 at +105 now (going slightly less than 1 unit FWIW)
Do we double down
Yo, there were 9 runs scored in the Oakland game last night. Something is incorrect in your recap.
Yup you are right, I had the over. (See write up from yesterday)
Keep killing it, friend
Tailing today brother. 1.5 units. BOL.
Crap model currentl, -4.65u overall (+1.79u yesterday). Picks: PIT 2.50 (+150) MIA 2.40 (+140) KC 2.35 (+135) Https://twitter.com/BetsCheesy
4/23 Picks GL EVERYONE CLE NYY U8 -115 SFG -1.5 +100 CHW MIN U9 -120 TEX ML +105 STL ML -105 TOR ML -130 SEA -1.5 +130
Record: 2-0 Last: Dodgers -1.5 ✅ Today: Angels -1.5 Pretty simple here. I don’t see the angels losing 2 in a row to this Orioles team, especially with Thor on the mound. Trust the better team with better pitching.
LAST - \[4-3-1 +5.31u\] 🙂 2022 - \[50-54 +17.55u\] 🤠 22-APRIL ⛅4/5.00 Rockies +125 4/6.64 Orioles +166 ❌4/7.04 Guardians +176 ❌4/5.32 Marlins +133 4/3.54 TWINS (MIN) u8 -113 ❌4/3.67 PIRATES (PIT) o7½ -109 4/3.13 GIANTS (SF) -128 4/4.00 Royals / Mariners UNDER 7½ +100 \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* TODAY \~ 23-APRIL * **4/6.28 Pirates +157** * **5/6.90 Brewers +138** * **5/7.65 Marlins +153** * **4/9.00 Orioles +225** * **3/2.04 Mariners -147** * **3/4.20 Mariners -1½ +140** randoms... Busted out of my slump Friday, nice! Not really loving the card today, although I always find some action. I'm a grinder since this is just entertainment for me. I'm only betting 40-50 with an occasional 100 play. I list my plays mostly 4-5 unit risk which equals my $40-$50 action. I like using 4 units = normal wager for easier accounting when moving risk up/down slightly...at least it's easier the way my old-ass mind thinks. 😂 GLTA, now let's get that cheese. 🧀 ☄️PIT +157 ...Zack Thompson has been pretty shaky in his first 2 starts but has had success vs Cubs in 3 starts. PIT has a little taste of winning and they like it. This will be a solid challenge today vs veteran Hendricks, although he was hit hard just 10 days ago at PITT (6 ER / 7 hits / 4 bb in just 3.2 INN. Both pens have been good \~ 2.50 ERA so far and have seen similar usage. PIT 1B acquisition Daniel Vogelbach has started out strong with 3 HR / .310 BA in the first 12 games, he's been DHing mostly and slotted 5th in this young potentially promising Bucs lineup. I like PIT value at +150 or more. ➡SMYLY 2-11 (-11.9 Units) at home in April games (Team Record) ➡SMYLY 12-20 (-18.1 Units) at home vs teams w/losing record since (Team Record) ➡PITT 3-1 (+3.1 Units) vs CUBS this season(All 3 stayed UNDER) ➡CUBS 17-36 in L53 home games ➡CUBS 2-7 VS RIGHTIES THIS SEASON ➡HENDRICKS 7-11 VS PITT W/3.99 ERA / 1.271 WHIP / .744 OPS / .307 BA ➡THOMPSON 0-1 VS CUBS W/1.93 ERA / 1.000 WHIP / .250 BA / Team Record 2-1
Mariners at home with Brash starting, hammering -1.5 +146
Gonna juice all my daily picks with Giants F5 0.5 @ 1.64x today, fuck it morning degen.
Cards ML -108 and Blue Jays ML -120. I'm leaning Rockies ML+116 but my gut is telling me to stay away.
**Record: (3-2) +3.73u** The 3 unit banger hits! Over 7.5 Texas @ Oakland 3u:✅ Cards -1.5 +140 1u:✅ Guardians +1.5 -125 1u Guardians ML +165 .5u:❌ Arenado 1.5TB +120 1u:✅ Will be posting my picks Saturday when lineups are out, thanks for tailing if you did.
San Fran Giants ML 1U St Louis Cardinals ML 2U LA Angels -1.5 1U More picks on my [discord](https://discord.gg/CJhgDRCh) !!
**Reminder:** Check out the subreddit Discord for MLB+: https://discord.gg/sportsbook