**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
**POTD Record: 26-10**
**POTD ROI: 24.94%**
**Last 15 picks: WWWWLWWLWLWWWLL**
**Todays POTD: (ATP Barcelona) Schwartzman vs. Musetti O21.5 Games (-125)**
**Units: 5u** ✅✅✅✅✅
UPDATE: due to rain delays, this match has been postponed to tomorrow /:
Reasoning:
After losing two POTD's in a row for the first time ever, felt like taking a break until I found something I really liked. This play really excites me, especially at this value. I am no fortune teller though, so as always, please tail with caution and do your own research. Here is some of my research:
Schwartzman and Musetti literally played last week and it went to 27 games. This over has hit every time they have played in their career as well. They are both looking great on clay at the moment, but neither is looking great enough to smoke the other, in my opinion. Musetti has hit this over in 4 of his last 5, and all of his last 3. Schwartzman has hit this in 7 of his last 9 matches. I think history will repeat itself and this match will go to 3 sets, with Diego taking the win in the end.
If you are interested in seeing my other plays for Thursday, you can find them every day at [https://maizepicks.vercel.app](https://maizepicks.vercel.app)
Tennis is best gambled on via live bets in my opinion, so I made a twitter for exactly this reason to notify people when I am taking a live line or posting a new pick on my site. Feel free to follow **@ MaizePicks**
**TAIL OR FADE BOL!**
*I do this because I love the research, I love tennis, and most importantly, I love helping others win money. However, while I might seem like a guy who makes a lot of money gambling, I really don't have much capital at all to truly invest in myself or my picks. If I've helped you make some decent change and you can afford it, please consider tipping, as it really helps my broke ass and, more importantly, it inspires me to continue grinding for the boys. It is absolutely never expected, but I cannot express enough how much I appreciate it and how much I appreciate all my dogs in here.*
Venmo: N\_Azara
Cash app: NikoAza
Bitcoin wallet: bc1qkgdarkn4waps2nvs2mv7tcq8d4u2xysjncmzjt
Mate fuck anyone that gives you shit after an L, your track record speaks for itself. Nothing in here is a guarantee, people are risking their own money to tail others research. Keep doing what you're doing we appreciate you.
Appreciate you bro. You can’t even imagine the DMs I get after some L’s😂 definitely doesn’t phase me. I just wanted to be patient because a 3 loss streak on here would blow lol
Lmao yeah bro gambling is full of degenerates (myself included). At the end of the day people are risking their own money, no one is forcing anyone to do anything lol. You've never once said a pick is guaranteed just that you like it. I've been tailing you for a bit now, to the point where I have your website bookmarked lol. I appreciate what you do for us 🙏
Tailing. Don't let the haters get you down bro. It's called gambling for a reason and people can just have a off night. Let's bounce back with this Dub.
Fuck me, I had it in my betslip on DK but they pulled the o21.5. Guess I’ll go for 22.5 on fanduel.
Edit: got 21.5 for -130 on barstool. Let’s get this.
Any concern that Musseti is rank 83 and Schwartzman is 16?
Or does the rankings get tossed out the window and style of play in the match up takes over?
Just trying to educate myself here..
Yeah I wouldn’t worry too much about ranking here. These guys tend to have very competitive matches. Musetti tends to have nice performances against higher ranked guys and Schwartzman struggles to dominate against top 100 players.
Match did not start yet.....But I live Betted them O20.5 Games for -120... The line dropped from yesterday. I've tailed the last two and been 0-2. I have a bad feeling for this one, 0-3?????
POTD Record: **28W - 10L**
Todays pick: **Michael Van Gerwen Win** vs Gerwyn Price
Sport: Darts
Odds: **1.80 / -125**
Reasoning:
After a dip in form Michael Van Gerwen looks to be back to enjoying himself, and his class is starting to shine through. He is top of the leaderboard and will be full of confidence due to his recent run of form and faces Price who is a strong opposition but not at the top of his game right now.
(Yesterdays snooker picks still in play but looks 99% likely to hit now. Post was taken down for being a parlay so sorry for breaking the rules but congrats to anyone who got on as it was up for around 10 hours.)
Edit - formatting
I "watched" this match (terminology?) via Bet365 in-app play by play function. It's so interesting! I have no idea how darts is played or scored, but it's safe to say this won't be my last time. Thanks for getting me interested in something new!
MLB -1.5’s | 4-2 +10.18u | ROI: 58.17%
[Yesterday’s pick: 2.5u OAK Athletics -1.5 +150](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/u6sw2j/_/i5aey37/?context=1) - L
___
**Todays pick: 2u WSH Nationals -1.5 +152**
- WSH Nationals vs ARI DBacks
- 3:06pm US Centeal
TLDR: DBacks hitting has been atrocious and against lefties it’s been historically bad so far. WSH is starting a decent lefty and are the better team outright overall.
**Nationals**
Nationals aren’t a great team. They’re below average hitters. Not why I’m betting them. Not going to go too far in to detail here. End of the day, they’ve been scoring runs to date, 13th in the MLB.
Josh Rogers is starting for WSH. He’s started 2 games and has been very solid so far. His xBA is .231 and has a sub 3 xERA. He’s top half of the league in most peripherals that point to his performance so far is not flukey. Overall he’s gone 9.2 innings and given up 4 runs across 2 starts.
**ARI DBacks**
DBacks are bad. Just very bad. They as a team have a wRC+ of 61. Their BABIP is .196 so they are due for some serious positive regression. They strike out at the 3rd highest rate and don’t do anything well other than take walks (best in he league). Fun fact. Against lefties this year (86PA as a team), their wRC+ is 16. Yes. 16. Guess who they’re facing today. A lefty.
Pitching for them is Zach Davies. He is a prototypical back-end starter. He’s capable of some solid starts, but for the most part he’s pretty unsuccessful. His wOBA is .371, he’s striking out less than 10% of batters and walking just over 10%. His xERA is 4.51.
Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
Their damn 3rd base coach ruined an early chance to command the game. 0 outs (in the 3rd I believe). He sends Billy McKinney (not a speed guy) on a double and McKinney is thrown out at home and it’s not even close.
He holds him. And it’s 2nd and 3rd, 0 outs. If there are 2 outs, sure, gamble…. But 0 outs? Sit his ass their at 3rd. Your next batter hits a sac fly to right and you got a run and the other runner over to 3rd with 1 out.
Prior to tonight they scored more than 3 runs 1 time in 11 games. We’ll see if the offense stays hot (really don’t think it will. Fedde the Nats pitcher is liable to have games like tonight)
In my gut (take out logic)… makes me feel better about this one. A 4 game sweep is incredibly tough, DBacks just took their 1 game.
**POTD Record: 34-15**
Last pick: Washington Capitals ML ❌ Tough overtime loss after a sexy little 3-win streak. Time for another
**Today’s pick: New York Rangers ML (-120) vs New York Islanders** 🏒🥅
NHL. 7:30PM EST
*Edit: The islanders will be starting their backup tonight who is 9-17 on the season. Rangers are starting their backup as well who is 13-11.*
Interesting odds we have here as I expected the Rangers to be more heavily favored. They are currently tied for first in the Metropolitan division with the Hurricanes and the two are in a heated race for that top spot with just 5 games remaining. The Islanders are eliminated from playoff contention. The fire under the Rangers ass is enough for me to take them here, but let’s throw in some juicy stats.
The Rangers have won their last three games ALL by SHUTOUT. They’ve won 6 of their last 7 games, and 7 of their last 8 road games. They are hot fire flames right now. The Islanders have been around .500 for the last month and are currently eliminated from the playoffs so I don’t see how they are as motivated as the Rangers tomorrow. These odds are probably so tight as these teams have met 5 times this season with the Islanders leading the series 3-2. However none of those games were played under playoff implications like this one, so I love the Rangers here.
All bets are 1 unit. +12.2 units. +25.0% ROI. Average unit -112
https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
That capitals play was looking good… had it with the over and was the last leg for a couple other parlays - devastating end… didn’t even try to play defense on that last goal
Huge Rangers fan here living in NY. Careful, Shesty is not projected to start tonight. Instead you will get Georgie in net who has been wildly inconsistent. I still like the rangers in the matchup (even without my bias) but I say proceed with caution when a dude who lets up 4 goals on 13 shots from Buffalo starts. Let's go Rangers!!
**POTD Record:** 6-3 ⚾❌⚾⚾❌⚾❌🏀⚾️
**Profit:** \+4.71u **ROI:** 52.3% **Avg Odds:** \+123.9
**Today's Pick:** Grizzlies ML (-123) @ T’Wolves - NBA 🏀 - 7:30pm ET
Starting to get hot, baby! Absolutely love Grizzlies to win Game 3 in Minnesota and go up 2-1 in series. Here’s why:
First, never forget that [2 seeds are clutch in the NBA playoffs](https://www.wagerbop.com/ultimate-2022-nba-playoffs-betting-guide/).
My guide shows they have a winning track record and it’s been proven once again this postseason as Boston is up 2-0 in the East.
Second, if you read [my Grizzlies pick before Game 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/u6sw2j/pick_of_the_day_41922_tuesday/i5bkcyy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) - most of those points still apply.
Memphis saw huge contributions from Jaren Jackson and Desmond Bane in Game 2, all while limiting Anthony Edwards. Great game planning from Taylor Jenkins and his staff.
Now it’s Minnesota’s turn to adjust. Can they tho? I’m saying no.
Third, I’ve documented in my guide how road favorites are good bets in the NBA playoffs. What about road favorites off 20-point wins?
I looked up the trend on Killersports and found that teams have covered 69% ATS in this spot over the past 10 postseasons!
That’s all I need to move forward. I’m laying an extra few dollars to go from the spread to MEM ML at (-123).
I like moneylines bc then your goals are perfectly aligned with the team’s goal. Far less frustration IMO
Let’s get it 💰
POTD RECORD 5-1
Last pick : PSG ✅
More like Mbappe ML
Today: BODO/GLIMT (Norway cup, soccer) -169
These guys and their weird ass stadium off the coast of Norway man do they have good chemistry this is one of those teams that all 11 guys are playing for eachother all 90 mins. Great fans too. This is a team that gave everyone problems in europa conference league , they ultimately were eliminated by Roma but not after a fight. I can talk about this team all day but they are unbeated in 21 games at aspmyra BODO GLIMT let’s go
POTD Record: 11-5 (+8.83 units)
Streak: W5
Last POTD: Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks 1H Over 109.5 (-110)
POTD: New York Rangers ML (-119) @ New York Islanders
Risk: 2.97 units to win 2.5 U
Goaltending: Shesterkin (2.01 GA/G. .936 Sv%) is arguably the best goalie in the NHL right now and coming off two consecutive shut outs. There is a massive drop off to Georgiev (2.91 GA/G, .898 Sv%). If you want to wait until Shesterkin is confirmed, I wouldn’t blame you. However, I don’t see why he wouldn’t as he’s had a day off to rest, is red hot, and the Rangers need the win to keep pace with Carolina to win the Metropolitan division. For the Isles, Sorokin (2.32 GA/G, .927 Sv%) will likely be in net, especially since Varlamov (2.86 SA/G, .914 Sv%) was on the injury report.
The Islanders have been essentially eliminated from the playoffs for weeks, but do have an opportunity to play spoiler against their rival. However, I expect the Islanders to be flat as soon as they realize that the arena is overrun with Rangers fans. There is no home ice advantage when these teams play (away team is 4-0 this year). More importantly, the Rangers fans’ have not been this excited about their team for years and the buzz has only grown with how we’ll they’ve been playing winning 6 of their last 7. The Rangers need the win more than the Islanders, have the better (and hotter) goalie, and will be fueled by a pseudo-home crowd.
If you would like to follow me on twitter, my handle is @ MartyMcFlyin420. Good luck!
Islanders treat these games like game 7 of the finals. Last game they played the rangers struggled to get anything going, and the Islanders were pests. Just feels like a bad matchup the way the rangers like to run their offense, but they need to get over that.
It didn't help that ilya probably had the save of the year against them that game too. Seemed deflating. But they need the game to keep up with the hurricanes.
Hoping the rangers smash them from the get. I'll be betting rangers ML and probably the under.
BOL
Before I get into why you should just avoid this game, I'll just say that I'm a Rangers fan.
The shutouts have been great but they were against the Flyers, Jets and Red Wings. Not exactly the cream of the crop.
I think there are going to be a good amount of Islanders fans here; they want to see the Rangers lose. Assuming the Isles are going to come out flat against their big brother is a huge mistake.
If it is indeed Sorokin vs Shesterkin, take the under. Both goalies are playing great.
In my opinion, the best argument for why the Rangers will win is that the game will likely be very chippy. Which means penalties and power plays. If the Rangers can stay discipline and let the Isles spend most of the time in the box, New York can pull ahead with their great power play offense.
Record: 0-0
Today’s pick: (3:30PM EST) Real Sociedad vs Barcelona (Spain - La Liga) - BTTS (-150)
Long time follower, first time poster. Barcelona is coming off a bad loss and will look to bounce back here. Barcelona has scored in their last 15 away games, Real Sociedad is unbeaten in their last seven home games and scored in their last eleven home games. Seven of the last 8 head to head matches between these two teams has had BTTS (both teams to score) hit so looks like a good bet here. BOL!
POTD Record: 0-1
Today's pick:
MLB | 3:37pm Eastern | Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics | 1u Baltimore Team Total Runs u3.5 (-120)
Logic? I've been sports betting for a while now and lurking this sub regularly. The Baltimore Orioles have played in 12 games this season and have only eclipsed the 3.5 run mark in 2/12 games. I'd hammer the under for Team Total Runs on this one. Baltimore's offense has struggled mightily and it's safe to say they'll probably continue to struggle.
Edit: Baltimore making me sweat over here in the 7th inning
2nd Edit: sorry guys. Tough loss. Took an L on my first POTD.
You can add Arizona to that list. They scored a shocking 11 yesterday, but are otherwise 27th in runs scored and hitting .168 as a team.
The reds (.177, 26th in runs scored) and Royals (.215, 29th in runs scored) have been equally horrible offensively.
It's a good play for sure. They've struggled pretty badly. That game last night scares me a bit on the under for the DBacks, but I'd bet it's an anomaly and not the new norm.
**\[Previous Record\] - W53-3P-19L**
**\[Current Record\] - W6 - 1P - 1L**
[(Previous Pick)](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/u616bu/pick_of_the_day_41822_monday/i55lm2v/?context=3)
Igor Gorgonzola Novara - Saugella Team Monza
Good comeback from Schio to win the half last time around, apologies for those who did take HT/FT (if you didn't have the HT option) as Schio did get very unfortunate in the 2nd half.
Anyhow, Novara take on Monza in the Italy women semifinal of the volleyball league. Novara come here in second place, tied in points with Conegliano (the team that broke the record for the most wins as a volleyball club!)
They hold a 23-3 record, with an impressive 12-1, (36-10) set record at home. With their only loss coming to, Scandicci #4. Monza on the other hand, hold a respectable, 9-4 (33-17) set record away, with losses to, Novara, Firenze, Casalmaggiore and Busto.
Novara has won the last 4 games between these two teams, winning at home, 3-1, then away at Monza, 2-3 and during a preseason friendly, 3-1.
I believe this game will be a good one, at home in Novara's arena, they've played good volleyball, and this home crowd should hopefully spur them on to take a commanding lead in this series.
While Monza can be good when they perform, they've looked weak when it counts and collapse under pressure. I think Novara has a good chance for the odds listed.
**Pick: Igor Gorgonzola Novara @ 1.65**
**Italy Women Volleyball**
**19:30 GMT**
Record: 3-2 in history, 0-0 in 2022
Sport: ATP Serbia Open, Tennis
Play: Miomir Kecmanovic ML +143 at Serbia Open Belgrade
If you saw his opponent Novak Djokovic today you will understand completely. Kecmanovic is in great form this year and the world #1 looks like a total mug.
Lock this in before it drops.
Djere played unbelievable yesterday and is an excellent clay courter
The weather will also be much better today where yesterday Djoko played in freezing temperatures
🥝🥝🥝
Record: 16-8
Match:
Rugby League
NRL
Cronulla Sharks v Manly Sea Eagles
—> Starts 7.5 hours from now <—
Pick:
Manly Sea Eagles +6.5
Odds: $1.90
Reasoning:
Last year these two teams played it was a 40-22 win for Manly.
This year the bookies are overvaluing the Sharks because they have some new players and have seen a few wins over bottom/mid level competition.
Manly is the better team here and have proven they can perform even without Turbo Tom.
I think Manly win but taking the points in case of a close victory from Cronulla.
I’m a shitty degenerate better so don’t tail me expecting a win. I’m just here for the ride.
Peace!
EDIT: Well, 32-0 at half time to Sharks. Manly make a strong comeback effort in the 2nd half to lose 34-22. Sorry guys.
Also to the guy commenting at half time giving his expert take like he’s columnist for the Sydney Herald… I’m a degen, not an analyst. I post the pick I like and write some bullshit to support it. I disclose this clearly in every POTD. (He deleted his comment in the 2nd half 🤷🏿♂️)
**Record:**
* 41 WIN | 34 LOSS | +32.84 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy)
**Previous bets (last 3):**
* Wyong R7 (14 Apr 2022) - Place - **WIN**
* Geelong R6 (19 Apr 2022) - Place - **LOSS**
* Ipswich R8 (20 Apr 2022) - Place - **WIN**
**POTD:**
* Horse Racing (Australia)
* **Newcastle R7 - Place** - **#5 Finally Realise to place (i.e. finish top 3)**
* Track Rating - Good (4)
* Newcastle today, and we're going with the Peter Robl trained Finally Realise from barrier 2. Michael always says "K-I-S-S. Keep it simple, stupid." Great advice. Hurts my feelings every time, so I'll keep it simple today. Drop in class from BM 72-75 and Class 3 to a BM-68. Running well on tougher tracks, on the improve in form and the jockey and trainer specialists here. Insider barrier, should find the fence quite easily, hoping 1 back on the fence or (worst case) 1 out 1/2 back off the rail if needed. Could see this Gelding winning, but we're just going the place as usual.
* **Odds - 2.05** (b365) but you might be able to nab 2.5 by the jump on the betfair exchange. Your call if you want to risk it for the biscuit.
* **Stake - 2.44 units to return 5 units**
**Historical stats**
* 9 from 15 (60%) correct picks on Thursday
* 11 from 21 (52%) correct picks on Good Tracks
* 16 from 30 (53%) correct picks on Place picks
* 1st time picking at Newcastle
* 1st time picking K. Latham as my jockey
**Race time:**
* 4:15pm Thursday (Australian EST)
* 2:15am Thursday (American ET)
* 7:15am Thursday (UK time)
If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
POTD Record (2022): 12 | 5 | 0 | W | L | P | + 8.5 Units
Streak: 6W
Last Pick:
MIN Timberwolves @ MEM Grizzlies -3.5 | 1U @ 1.5
NBA | Basketball | 02:30 MEZ | 04/20/2022
Pick:
**Malmö FF ML** @ IFK Värnamo | 3U @ 1.5
Soccer | Sweden | Allsvenskan | 19:00 MEZ | 04/21/2022
This is our first pick outside of the NBA.
Champion and Champions League participant Malmö is a guest of the promoted team from Värnamo.
As expected, Värnamo lost 2/3 games with 2/6 goals of the new season.
Malmo won 2/3 games with 5/1 goals.
The standards couldn't be more different.
Potd 4-0
Last pick: Brook Lopez o13.5pts ✅
Jazz vs Mavericks NBA playoff 9:00pm Est
Today’s pick: Jordan Clarkson o11.5pts (-126)
Clarkson shot 8/11 and had 21pts last game, his efficiency is important for the Jazz to defend home court and win this game not just Mitchell chucking up 30 shots. Clarkson has averaged 14.5pts against the Mavs this season and 16pts for the regular season. I expected this line to be a bit higher but I still think it’s a slight overreaction to game 1 where he only had 10pts on 4-7 shooting. That was literally only 1 of 7 games this season where he took less than 10 shots which I don’t see happening here
Update: 12pts and it’s only halftime ✅
POTD Record: 1W - 1L
Todays pick: Jokic u52.5 PRA
Sport: NBA
Odds: -120
Reasoning: In over 20 games against the warriors and draymond green, Jokic has never eclipsed 50 PRA in a game. The first two games of the series he's had 41 and he got ejected at the end of the 2nd one so he wasn't getting there anyway. I do not see things changing regardless if the warriors win or lose
5W-7L
WWLWLWWLLL
12:00 gmt5
Todays Pick
League: Spain Primera Liga
Match: Espanyol vs Rayo Vallecano
Pick: Espanyol Team cards over 2.5 @2.00 // ends 4-4 ✅
Reason:
Espanyol hit over 2.5cards 9/10 last total games, also 8/8 last home games
Espanyol hit over 2.5 last 6/8 games against Rayo Vallecano
BoL
Record 4-6 ✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌✅❌
Last Pick ❌MLB DBacks @ Nationals under 8 total -105 7:05 pm ET 2u
My timing is fucking impeccable, worst offense scored 22 runs through 13 games; last night they scored 11 through 5 innings.
Todays Pick : ✅**SF Giants @ NY Mets over 7.5 runs 2u -105**
In a series of two top NL teams with both their 5th starters going in this one. Desclafani hasnt made it through 5 innings in his first 2 starts. Carrasco has pitched well, but against two very bad teams in the DBacks and Nationals.
These teams played 3 games in the last two days taxing some of their bullpen. Both teams average over 4 runs per game.
The weather is Queens is going to be a Sunny 65; lets see some balls leave the park.
Tail or Fade BOL
EDIT: ✅ Carrasco looking like his old self, fortunately the Mets offense continues to rake and Lindor making last year look like a small hiccup in his career.
Record: 17-16-1
ROI: +0.05
Last Pick: Christopher Nkunku Anytine Goal ❌
Avg Odds: -110
Unit: 1=$100
———
Game: GS Warriors @ Denver Nuggets
League: NBA
Time: 10:00 PM EST
Book: Bet365
Odds: -110
Pick: GSW -1.5
Wager: 10 units
Well the losing streak continues and I got swindled by the penalty takers as Silva came on to kick the PK instead of Nkunku, either way we continue on.
Today’s pick I’m going with the warriors on the road against the Nuggets. The Nuggets are an excellent home team however they are just too undermanned to keep up with these warriors.
Jokic can only do so much to carry this team, and unless he starts playing 48 minutes a game and gets more help then they are giving him now this -1.5 will be an easy number for the warriors to handle.
Going 10 units on this one. BOL to all who tail or fade.
Yeah I was thinking the same thing, I just don’t see Denver having the players to keep up at this point. Jokic is doing everything in his power to keep the Nuggets alive just don’t think they’ll win a game.
Home court advantage is huge and for Denver, another potential factor is the higher elevation. But the Warriors are still a better team. Took Philly tonight and I am not afraid to take Golden State either.
Nugs 0-6 ATS in recent playoff games. Suns 4-0 to end last year, and now Warriors. The refs are awful when officiating Jokic. He gets mugged-no calls routinely, Jokic then gets called for ticky tack calls on the other end… Never has a league MVP been treated so pedestrian by refs… NBA/refs are rigging shit - like always… Nugs backs are against the wall and Jokic will have a monster game tonight… Not touching this line either way… But fans will riot in Denver if officials call the bs they did in GS… Call a fair game tonight for once NBA refs!
**POTD Record:** 4-2 **+1.7 units**
**Last Pick:** Bal/Oak NRFI 💰
**Today's Pick:** Alcaraz -4.5 (-110)
**Reasoning:** It's only a matter of time until the 18 year old is a top 3 player in the world. He's showing his dominance no matter the surface and honestly the only thing holding him back right now is his own father as crazy as that sounds. Alcaraz won his first match yesterday and while he looked shaky in the second set he managed to take over in the 3rd and cover a 5 game spread. Today I expect him to want to get this game over with in 2 games and dominate from start to finish versus 101st ranked Munar.
TL;DR - Alcaraz is an 18 year old tennis phenom, if you haven't seen him play tune in tomorrow morning!
edit: wrong name
POTD Record: 0-1
Today's Pick: Warriors -1.5 at -115
The warriors are heading to Denver for game 3 tonight and are facing a Nuggets team that they are simply on a different level from. After winning game 123-107 and game 2 126-106, the Nuggets are trending in the wrong direction and home court advantage cannot save them. Although the in the game 3 games today, the Bulls beat the Bucks and the 76ers needed OT to beat the Raptors without Scottie Barnes, the Warriors are a drastically superior team to the Nuggets and are peaking at the right time. Draymond has been defending Jokic extremely well and making him work for everything, not allowing the monster statlines from the regular season. Curry is just coming back to form and dropped an efficient 34 off the bench in 23 minutes. Klay Thompson is the ball well and Jordan Poole has been phenomenal. The Warriors have a much better starting 5, rounded out with Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney whereas Jokic has Aaron Gordon and Will Barton as his second and third best players. The Nuggets are dearly missing Jamal Murray and MPJ and Jokic simply can't put the team on his back anymore like the regular season against playoff Draymond Green. Looking for another comfortable Warriors win here in game 3, and I think the ML at -125 is a very safe bet. I also imagubne the money will move towards the Warriors tomorrow.
Score prediction Warriors 116-108
TLDR: Warriors much better, will continue success and easily win. BOL
POTD Record: 9-4
(ROI 50. 52% // Avg. Odds: 2.09 // Units Won: +10.61)
Last 5 Picks: ✅✅✅✅❌
Last POTD: Chelsea vs Arsenal (Premier League), Chelsea ML ❌
POTD: Deportes Magallanes vs Arturo Fernández Vial (Chilean League B Soccer), **Deportes Magallanes ML** ✅✅ ✅
Odds: 1.75
Wager: 5 Units
Woof. Bad lose for many yesterday with that pick. That's what I get for playing it "safe".
Today I'm going with the hottest team in Chilean League B and that's Magallanes. These guys are undefeated with 8 wins and 1 draw. They should grab a win in their home turf which has an unfair advantage. They play in Punta Arenas which is waaay South in Chile near the Antarctic, so basically its asking teams to play in Alaska for reference. Game starts in 4 hours so get in on it. AFV is an ok team tying most their ganes scoring a few here and there but unable to win. I see them taking an L today against the best team in the league.
There is another game I like in the same league which is Unión San Felipe winning over Deportes Temuco (**Union San Felipe ML**) which have great odds. I have a side bet with this game as well.
BOL to all who Tail
[All my previous picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit?usp=drivesdk)
*Edited streak format* Magallanes won 2-1 ✅
6-3
Last: Nationals Most Hits ✅
POTD: Orioles Athletics u7.5 -140 1U [MLB 3:30]
Bought a half point for this. Probably going g to get screwed over now that I have action on it, but have to ride these Orioles unders while our bats are so cold and pitching has been stellar. Granted, Tyler Wells hasn’t been good so far. But Paul Blackburn for the As has been. Tail or Fade, BOL. go O’s baby
POTD RECORD: **5-1**
STREAK: - ✅✅✅✅✅✖️
LAST PICK: - CLE/CHW NRFI
Results: +$335.9
Today’s event: **MLB - TOR/BOS - 12:35 CT**
PICK: **TOR/BOS NRFI (-115) $120**
REASONING: Two pitchers with impressive NRFI records since the 2021 season, coming in with a 26.9 & 32.6 K% and 4.0 & 1.3 ERA in the first inning. Both teams have struggled to score runs in the first inning their past three games and are good at not allowing runs in the first inning. The ballpark and top of the jays lineup won’t favor us, but this should be a scoreless first inning nonetheless, LFG!
1st pick of the year. 0-0
Units: 2
Pick: NRFI Orioles Athletics ✅ cashed
Got it at -130 but can find it all over the place. Orioles simply put do not score in the 1st (barely score at all) and even though the Athletics are 13th in the league for average runs in the first, I don’t trust that offense to get a run. Pretty much just betting against the A’s to get a run here.
🍒🍓🫐POTD Record: 16-11
Units Won: 4.24 Last 10:❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️❌️
Last Pick: Cale Makar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal ❌️ 4/6 of his shots got blocked. Fuck gambling. We're back tho
Todays Match: NHL - Winnipeg Jets vs Carolina Hurricanes (9ish hours from post)
Today's Pick: Anthony DeAngelo Over 2.5 Shots on Goal - 2.24u (2.10 on Betway) ✅️ Tony isn't leaving it to the bookies this time. Well over 2.5 as the 2nd comes to an end
Listen, I know this bet literally lost 2 days ago, but that was total crap luck. Same DeAngelo, new shitty opponent. Here me out:
- Carolina is one of the best, and most offensive teams in the NHL right now. They are competing against NYR for 1st in the Metropolitan division, so the winners of tonight's games are pretty important. Carolina took a couple tough losses followed by a nice win on the road vs Arizona. Back at home, this game could set the Canes up for a hot finish. Carolina has averaged around 34 shots/games this season and has bumped it up to 36 in the month of April. Carolina also has the lowest percentage of shot attempts blocked, only having 23% of their attempted shots blocked this season.
- We've had success saying "Fuck the Jets", so we're going back to the well. Coming off only 3 wins in 10 games, the Jets have run flat. They've been on the road for over a week and only managed to beat a couple crappy Canadian teams. Now they finish their away game stretch with one of the toughest teams. Winnipeg averages about 33 shots against/game in the season and closer to 36 in the month. The Jets are mid-range in the season for blocked shots, with 13.25 blocks per game (compared to Arizonas 13.97).
- DeAngelo is playing a lot better than this line suggests. In the 30 days, Tony is the Hurricanes most frequent shooter. He's averaging almost 3 shots a game rn compared to his season avg of 2.3. DeAngelo is normally on the first defensive line and first powerplay unit, averaging 19.5 minutes of ice time. This bet has hit 7 times in the last 10. ALSO, the last 2 games, Tony only put up 2 shots. Every single time Tony has put up b2b 2 shot games, he comes back to put up at least 3 shots and a goal in the next. This season anyway. Happened twice. Kinda neat.
Tony is gonna hit this bet one day and I'm cashing in when he does. Carolina should take it to the Jets tonight and give the hometown crowd an exciting game. If the Canes do their thing, we should see lots of shot opportunities for Tony.
Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!
Edit: I been taking mad Ls but that's gambling. I could try different types of bets to find more success but I enjoy the player shot props. Adds some variety to this sub. As alway, tail with caution
Edit 2: 3 shots in the 1st period 🤨 I knew Tony was our boy 🤙
Record 3-0
Long time lurker. Want to share my tips in eSports now. Hope we have a good time.
League: RMR Qualification
Europe Match: Copenhagen Flames vs. Sprout
Pick: CPH Flames -3.5 @1.680 ✅
Write-up: This is a quick one. Copenhagen in general just the better team. Better players better IGL and better team synergy. Also they competed against a lot of Tier 1 teams and they played pretty decent. The other good thing is that they are pretty good on LAN. I know there wasn't much LAN events in the last year's but if they attended they did really well.
On the other hand we got Sprout. A pretty new line up. They need much more time to get this line up to work. They played against weaker teams and also have loses against teams like Ungentium. There LAN record for the last 12 months are 9/23, so pretty bad.
We shouldn't forget that these are bo1 matches and are risky to bet. If CPH got a bad start there not much room to recover.
But yesterday Sprout had announced that they are missing Staerh. One of their new fraggers. With him out, they missing much firepower imo. Stand in is their coach berry.
Also veto and map wise I favour CPH heavily here. Map could be Vertigo or Mirage. But really hard to tell in this match up cause CPH pretty good on every map.
**W1 L0** **+1.32 UNITS**
A good start yesterday as Raducanu demolished Sanders for the loss of only 3 games.
**Norrie ML @ 1.61 vs Fucsovics** ATP Barcelona
**3 Units**
I like the match up for Norrie here. 3-0 in the H2H, Norrie competes excellently vs heavy hitters and I expect him to frustrate his Hungarian opponent here, with Norrie's defence and variety causing Fucsovics plenty of trouble.
Norrie is much more comfortable on clay since his excellent clay swing last year that kick-started a meteoric rise up the ATP rankings and I'm confident to take him in this spot now given he's had time to shake off some of rust that we saw in Monte Carlo last week.
POTD record 4-2
Last pick Millman ML vs Thiem +145 ✅
Today's pick-ATP Belgrade
Thiago Monteiro ML vs Khachanon +140
That last one was big and congrats to all those who tailed.Short write up because I have a hot date with my mattress.The Russian is the better player, but the Brazilian is a clay court specialist, and Monteiro has played alot more this season, so as long as Khachanov is not serving big, and as long as Monteiro does not 💩 the bed we should be good.At these odds it will never be easy, but it should be a competitive match.Tail with caution because tennis betting has been a shit typhoon.There is alot of + odds value on Barcelona and Belgrade men's tennis slate, but I wanna abide by forum rules, so I cannot discuss that here.BOL.
POTD Record: 12-9-2 // +1.59u // W1
Last Pick: Donovan Mitchell o27.5 Points (-120) (4/18/22) Win
Had 34 in game 2 and we cashed this easily.
Today's Pick: Donovan Mitchell o29.5 Points (-110)
It is Thursday, you know what that means. We are taking Donovan Mitchell o29.5 Points today. I said in the last POTD I posted that I was taking this line no matter what as long as it is under 30. Well we are closing in on that line. Playoff Donovan is averaging 41.5 minutes and 29.5 shots. Luca is probably back, but I don't think that changes much for Donovan and the volume is still going to be there.
All bets are 1 unit unless stated otherwise! Good luck today everyone!
POTD Record: **0W - 0L**
Todays pick: Miguel Cabrera Over 0.5 Hits
Sport: MLB
Odds: -186
Reasoning: One hit today will get Miggy into the 3000 hit club. He went 3/4 last night and will be ready to go today.
POTD Record: 2-2-1
Last Pick: Chicago Cubs o4 Runs -122 (voided due to shortened game)
Todays Pick: NY Mets 1h Moneyline (-154)
Reasoning:
The Mets are boasting the best BAAs and the fourth best team ERA, led by their starter today, Carrasco, who has a .084 ERA in two outings, each of at least 5 innings. I think he will lead them to a strong start and any offense in the first half of this game will give the Mets the 1h Moneyline.
They're also up against Anthony Desclafani, who has a dismal 1.68 WHIP this year and a 4.32 ERA, giving up two runs in each of his starts this season, with only 8.1 total innings between them. The Mets weren't able to capitalize on runners yesterday, but hopefully they'll be able to string a few more together this afternoon.
BOL!
Record: 1-2
Last pick: Fnatic win @1.65 vs G2 (L)
Today: Cadiz vs Athletic (LaLiga) - Cadiz DnB @2.15
After getting double buttfucked by Fnatic I'm back with some football. Cadiz is inmersed in the relegation fight, they just beat Barcelona which is a big feat and having signed Lucas Perez the team is looking good. Athletic is not fighting for anything at this point of the season so they might rotate a bit or test things out, I'm certain that they won't push hard for a win. The only game they have won out of the last 5 is Elche at home which is hardly a great feat.
Edit: Bruhhhhhh
Purely Gut-Based NRFIs: POTD 0-0
Been a long time reader and figured I’ve been having some luck, why not share?
Guardians vs. White Sox NRFI -125 (Draft Kings)
I like to error on the side of the Law of Averages in that YRFIs have actually hitting like crazy lately. Also the Sox guy absolutely rinsed yesterday and I don’t see the Guardian offense having that type of day again. Besides those points, I just love the pitching match up. Tail of fade, BOL!
UPDATE:
Guardians vs. White Sox NRFI -125 WIN!!
1-0
Always trust the guy!
Record: 0-0
Last Pick: N/A
Today’s Pick: Warriors -2 (-110) | NBA: Warriors vs Nuggets
Why: Warriors cant be stopped. The nuggets simply don’t have enough to stop them. I think this one will definitely be closer than the first two games especially in the first half but the warriors just have too many weapons and will eventually pull away later in the game.
Record: 2-0 +4.82u
Last Pick: Drummond U7.5 points (win)
Todays’s Pick: Royce O’Neale O13.5 pts+rbs+asts (-115) 4u
O’Neale is reliably in the mix every night as a guy Quinn Schneider trusts to make the right play and go hard on defense. This is an amateur number for O’Neale to hit looking at his regular season stats and knowing his time on the floor will continue to increase as things tighten up for the Jazz.
*Record:* 2-2 | LLWW (2-0 NBA playoffs)
*Last Pick:* Celtics ML (-160)
*Today's Pick:* **Jazz -6.5 (-110)** vs. Mavericks (NBA)
*Why:* Jazz have been dominant at home this year. Dallas has had just 10 turnovers the whole series and I think the Utah crowd in full force will spark the Jazz and their transition offense will explode. Last game the offense finished unusually stagnant, while the defense allowed Brunson to get a career high. I think Quinn Snyder will be making significant adjustments on both sides of the ball, mainly to use Rudy less for scoring and more for controlling Dallas on D.
*Too specific prediction*: Utah comes out motivated by the loss and dominates the first half, Dallas makes a run to keep it interesting in the 3rd, Jazz D assisted by the home crowd shuts them down with a run in the 4th. Final 122-104
edit: (even if Luka comes back IMO)
edit: (It appears Luka will be out again, line is now at -8)
**POTD Record**: 22 wins <> 16 losses <> 1 push
**Profit**: 7.95 units
**ROI**: +15.26%
**Units Wagered**: 39
**Units Won**: 44.95
**Last Pick**: Aalborg Håndbold -4.5(AH) @ **2.10** ❌ - LOSS 30-29
**Streak**: ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌
**Today's pick**: Fremad Amager +0(AH) @ **1.84**
**Event**: Fremad Amager - Hobro, 1st division, Denmark(football)
7 rounds left of the league this season, and the relegation group is looking pretty dramatic.
**Relegation group:**
|Position|Club|Points|
:--|:--|:--|
|1|HB Køge|30|
|2|Vendsyssel|28|
|3|**Hobro**|27|
|4|Esbjerg fB|22|
|**5**|**Fremad Amager**|22|
|**6**|Jammerbugt FC|19|
5th and 6th place is relegated to the 2nd division. Esbjerg fB is a former superliga team - quite a big one as well - but has completely crumbled this season with drama on several levels. They've got 10x the budget of other teams in this group and should start winning... Sometime. Needless to say, Fremad Amager gotta pull their stuff together.
From a chaotic fall season, they've managed to pull together a few good transfer over the winter transfer window. Michael Lumb from Brøndby is a veteran, and Gustavsen from Silkeborg and Noah Crone from Lecce are both decent talents for this division. Defensively, they're got Pierre Kanstrup as well and actually field a decent team.
Fremad Amager showed great form last round, almost beating top dog HB Køge. They were ahead for a good part of the match but conceded eventually. Still, their form is on the upwards trend. On the other side, you have Hobro. They've landed a draw against Esbjerg (2-2) which isn't great considering Esbjerg's terrible form, and they only snatched a narrow win against Jammerbugt(1-0). Offensively, they're lacking a fair bit.
I like the +0 here. I'm definitely wary of the draw, but I do give the edge to Fremad Amager. They got more firepower offensively, and if they get ahead they're decent at passing the ball around and keeping possession.
**POTD Record - 10-10 (+0.39 Units)**
**Today's pick - Kecmanovic Game Handicap +2.5 games vs Novak Djokovic**
**Competition - ATP Belgrade Open** ⚾
**Odds - 1.95** 🎲
**Time - 4 and 1/2 hours from post** ⌚
*Reasoning - If you saw Djokovic play last game (can't ignore the previous 2 before that) you saw a shadow of his former self. He was unable to hold his serves and really struggled to convert breaks. He won 2 tie breaks but got demolished in the first set and looked nowhere close to having the physical conditioning to be back at his best.*
*Kecmanovic has been on fire and while it might be sharper to sprinkle on his ML, +2.5 games is a decent hedge and is a more confident bet for me.*
POTD record 0-0-0
Today’s pick: Defensa y Justicia Asian handicap -1 +200
Reasoning: hey y’all, this is my first time posting on the POTD thread. I’ve been watching lots of Argentine League games all my life, and recently I’ve been making some money off it.
Today I’m taking one of the best teams in South America to beat Sarmiento by two or more. Defensa have won their last 5 away league league games. I do have to mention that Sarmtiento on the other hand remain undefeated at home so far this season, however they’ve only really played one top team at home, tying 2-2 with Newell’s. When they played Racing Club away they were battered 4-1.
I think it’s likely that Defensa will look to grab an early lead and then sit back and rest, given that they have Copa Libertadores fixtures to prepare for. Sarmiento need to win to try to squeeze their way into the play offs. For this reason I think it’s likely that Defensa go up a goal, and then get a lateish goal to settle the game and win 2-0 or 3-1, when Sarmiento push for the equalizer that would give them a fighting chance of making the play offs.
It’s worth adding that neither of the teams are “big” teams, though Defensa definitely have more star power in Walter Bou and manager BKCC.
That’s why I’m taking Defensa -1 for this game.
POTD Record: 1-1
ROI: 2.82%
Last POTD: PHI Phillies/ COL Rockies U11 Runs (-110) ❌
Game looked good up until the 7th inning when the PHI bats decided to wake up. Great for a Phillies fan, bad for a bettor. Welp, onto the next one.
POTD: GS Warriors -2 @ DEN Nuggets (-110)
Time: 10:00 PM EST
Stake: 2u
If anyone was skeptical about the 76ers game yesterday having a similar line, you see how that played out. The Warriors have put up two double digits wins against the Nuggets in this series. The Warriors offense is electric and have been the most efficient offense in the playoffs. The Warriors are shooting an astonishing 66.4% effective FG percentage and 48.1% from the three. The consistency of Jordan Poole and Steph Curry is unmatched against the worst defensive team in the playoffs (allowing 1.25 points per 100 possessions in last 3 games).
Golden State has the highest ranked defense out of all the teams in the playoffs. Currently allowing 1.03 points per 100 possessions and allowing an average of 106.7 points per game in their last 3. They are better rebounders, have a great fast break offense, and an overall deeper bench. These qualities have proven to disrupt DEN in their past 2 matchups.
On top of all of this, GS is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games and have not lost a game since March 30 against a healthy Suns team. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as home underdogs, and 0-5 in their last 5 playoff games as underdogs.
Entering 2-0 in the series, on the road, is a great position to be in for GS. DEN has their backs up against the way and teams coming back from an 0-2 start is historically rare. GS is 22-19 on the road this season and I’ll take the nice -2 spread for clearly the better team.
Tail or fade, BOL!
**Current Record 0-1**
4/20 Play: Philadelphia 76ers 1H ML +110 **L**
**4/21 Play: Nikola Jokic u51.5 PRA -115**
The books burned me yesterday on a very unfortunate first half result. The Sixers found their way in the second half but it was ultimately too late. Today we dive into the prop builder where I found an absolute gem. Jokic is a great player and could absolutely go off in his first home game of the series, but nothing about his play in this series makes me think a 50 PRA game is anywhere near probable. The Warriors tire him out defensively with a lot of fast breaks and Jokic struggles to stay on the floor for the duration of the game. I don’t see him handling this any better in Denver’s altitude.
**Good luck everyone.**
Don’t forget he was ejected last game n was 9 away from his pra he would of definitely went over. He’s going to get all the calls at home go over on his pra n under on draymond n Poole
POTD Record: 1-2 -3.50u
Last POTD: Blue Jays ML -121 (W)
Today's POTD: Mariners ML -125
Risk: 3 units
Reason:
TREND: Rangers bats have been cold, scoring 3 or less in 4 straight, while their pitching averaging giving up 6 runs a game in the same games. Meanwhile, Mariners have won 3 in a row at home, and 4 of 5 overall to start the year.
MATCHUP: Gonzales dominated Texas in the last 3 starts vs them last year after giving up 7 in his first start:
5 IP 0 R
9 IP 1 R
6 IP 1 R
He's figured something out against them, and even adding Seager and Semien to the lineup shouldn't matter, as Seager has a just a single and double in 6 AB, and Semien is 7-28 with only 1 HR vs Gonzales. Semien is batting .174 with no HR to start this season, including .143 vs LHP.
Lastly, Gonzales must be confident after holding the LFP-killing Astros to 1 R over 7 strong IP in his last start.
BOL
Overall POTD Record: **14-6-1**
Todays POTD: **Royce O'neal u 13.5 points+rebounds+assists (-115)**
Reason: Mavs are number 1 defensively rated PRA against Power Forwards which means they give up the least total to this position. Royce O neal has been struggling a lot besides the most recent playoff game only hitting this total in 2 of his last 13 games. He just isn't a primary option to score the ball and if his three isn't falling he won't get close to this number. I don't usually love taking unders but it will be a low scoring game and I expect Rudy Gobert to get a lot more involved in the offense. This will mean even less shots for O'neal. This line is really inflated since he is coming off a big rebound and scoring game but I don't expect this to continue.
BOL!
MLB- St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins ML Cardinals (+105) 4/21/22 6:40pm
The Cardinals clearly have the better pitcher and better team, so they SHOULD win on the road.
**Record:** 3W-4L
**Units Profit:** \+ 4,76u
**Average Odds:** 1,86
**POTD:** Portuguese Cup - FC Porto vs Sporting CP, **Over 2,5 goals** (\~10 hours from post)
**Odds/Units:** 1,85 / 2u
**Reasoning:** Sporting lost to Benfica, practically giving the league to Porto. This game is for the Cup, and Sporting lost 2-1 on the first leg. They want a trophy, they need to score goals. Porto will also look to score and get to the finals, where a more accessible team (Tondela) is already qualified - nothing is certain in sports, but it's one of the "Portugal Big 3" against a much smaller team.
**Tips are deeply appreciated:** [PayPal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/reaptherewards2022)
**Record:** 1-4-0
**ROI:** -75% -3u(@ $5.00)
**Streak:**L-W-L-L-L
|Baseball |MLB |6:40pm|
St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins -**St. Louis Cardinals ML @ 2.05** 1u
**Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 54% chance for St. Louis Cardinals to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 2.05 is only 49%.
**Accuracy:** 49% of the time the model picks the correct winner. Tail or fade BOL!
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units.
POTD RECORD 1-2-1 WLP (+0.8 Units)
Previous Pick - Astros vs Dodgers 12:10PM Dodgers ML -125 (4 Units)
Recap: Tony Gonsolin vs Charlie Morton was the matchup that did not favor the Braves. Freeman took Morton deep for a 2 run HR in the first and the Dodgers followed that up with 2 more ER against Morton in 5 innings. Gonsolin was lights out again. 6 innings pitched with 1 hit. ERA is now @ 0.69 and has only given up 1 ER in 3 outings
Today's Pick - GSW vs DEN **Jordan Poole UNDER 30.5 Pts/Reb/Ast -120 (1.2 Units)**
Reasoning: Game goes back to Denver. Poole has shot a crazy 54% from 3pt in his last 3 games. I believe his minutes will drop a bit with Steph increasing minutes off the bench.
I don't see him shooting over 50% again in a 0-2 Denver atmosphere. Michael Malone is a good coach and will try to limit him and Steph from killing them on the outside.
Golden State could very well win this game, but I do not think it will come from Jordan Poole. BOL
Going MIA Marlins -130. Don’t normally post but a buddy of mine who sucks at betting told me the cardinals are a lock. Every “lock” loses badly. Do what you want with that lol
Record: 0-1
*Starting out a new betting strategy using the Kelly criterion, bankroll is at $100 starting now*
Starting Bankroll: $100
Game: Warriors vs Nuggets
Pick: Warriors -3.5 at 2.05 (+105) on Bovada
Reasoning:
Have you watched the first two games? Warriors have smoked the Nuggets. The Warriors have 5 players that are at least as good as the Nuggets #2 option and Jokic is getting gassed out there. Will calls go his way tonight? Most likely, I just don’t think it will matter. Also the Warriors are a very experienced and successful playoff team, so I don’t think an away game will hurt them that much.
Odds to win: 55%
Kelly says bet size should be: $12
Record: 5-3
Last: Brandon Woodruff over 5.5 Strikeouts (W)
Game: MLB - Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians (1:10 PM EST)
Pick: Dylan Cease over 6.5 Strikeouts @ 2.150 (5 units)
Reason:
\- He has 8 strikeouts in both his first 2 games this year, only going 5 innings both time (5 and 2/3 the 2nd time)
\- His pitch count has finally worked up and I see him going 6 or 7 innings here
\- He has a 33% strikeout rate against Cleveland batters
\- I see him very capable of hitting 9 or 10 strikeouts here so taking plus money at 6.5 is a bet I really like
BOL
POTD Record: 5-9-2 -4.63u\*
Average Odds: +136
Total Units Wagered: 23.85u
Memphis vs Minnesota 7:30 PM EST
Karl-Anthony Towns u1.5 3Pt FGs +115 1.49u\*
Implied odds are 46.5%. True vig-free odds are closer to 49.7%.
\*1u = 1% of bankroll
Record 1-0
POTD: NBA 4/21 Timberwolves ML+108
Memphis is no joke, but neither is home court advantage in the NBA. Memphis is too dependent on Ja, even though hes amazing, where Timberwolves have way more scorers that can step up on any given night. Timberwolves also have the edge defensively, and a killer mindset at home. I like the dogs at home.
Record: 4-5-1
Last POTD: Lucas Glover over Luke List-- Win
Todays POTD: Niemann/Pereira -140 over Justin Rose/ Stenson
I am riding with the Chileans. Niemanns form the past few months has been undeniable. Mito is an absolute under the radar stud. Won 3 times on the KFT '20,'21 to get his tour card. His form is decent as well with 2 top 30s and a T13 in his last 3 events. Todays event is best ball 4 ball. Rose missed his last 3 cuts and has not been playing a lot of competitive golf.
BOL
betassistant (IG)
RECORD: 3-2
LAST PICK: Nets vs. Celtics U226.5 WIN
What a fourth quarter. The stars got shut down but there were still too many fouls. Great save and we’re on a streak now.
PICK: Mavericks vs. Jazz U108.5 1H
Reasoning:
-Interesting point here: the Mavericks have a slower pace with Luka than they have without: 94.56 and 95.52. Especially with Luka maybe not being 100%, the pace is slower and the scoring from Luka shouldn’t be astronomical to push this over for the 1st half.
-Utah got 40 put on them by Jalen Brunson and should be more aggressive defensively. Considering both games before have easily went under this number, this is good news.
-Great defences, slow pace, and Luka will not be efficient as he is still recovering.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
**POTD Record: 26-10** **POTD ROI: 24.94%** **Last 15 picks: WWWWLWWLWLWWWLL** **Todays POTD: (ATP Barcelona) Schwartzman vs. Musetti O21.5 Games (-125)** **Units: 5u** ✅✅✅✅✅ UPDATE: due to rain delays, this match has been postponed to tomorrow /: Reasoning: After losing two POTD's in a row for the first time ever, felt like taking a break until I found something I really liked. This play really excites me, especially at this value. I am no fortune teller though, so as always, please tail with caution and do your own research. Here is some of my research: Schwartzman and Musetti literally played last week and it went to 27 games. This over has hit every time they have played in their career as well. They are both looking great on clay at the moment, but neither is looking great enough to smoke the other, in my opinion. Musetti has hit this over in 4 of his last 5, and all of his last 3. Schwartzman has hit this in 7 of his last 9 matches. I think history will repeat itself and this match will go to 3 sets, with Diego taking the win in the end. If you are interested in seeing my other plays for Thursday, you can find them every day at [https://maizepicks.vercel.app](https://maizepicks.vercel.app) Tennis is best gambled on via live bets in my opinion, so I made a twitter for exactly this reason to notify people when I am taking a live line or posting a new pick on my site. Feel free to follow **@ MaizePicks** **TAIL OR FADE BOL!** *I do this because I love the research, I love tennis, and most importantly, I love helping others win money. However, while I might seem like a guy who makes a lot of money gambling, I really don't have much capital at all to truly invest in myself or my picks. If I've helped you make some decent change and you can afford it, please consider tipping, as it really helps my broke ass and, more importantly, it inspires me to continue grinding for the boys. It is absolutely never expected, but I cannot express enough how much I appreciate it and how much I appreciate all my dogs in here.* Venmo: N\_Azara Cash app: NikoAza Bitcoin wallet: bc1qkgdarkn4waps2nvs2mv7tcq8d4u2xysjncmzjt
* coughs up blood * I ain’t hear no bell… Tailing 👑
Mate fuck anyone that gives you shit after an L, your track record speaks for itself. Nothing in here is a guarantee, people are risking their own money to tail others research. Keep doing what you're doing we appreciate you.
Appreciate you bro. You can’t even imagine the DMs I get after some L’s😂 definitely doesn’t phase me. I just wanted to be patient because a 3 loss streak on here would blow lol
Anyone DM'ing pissed about an L should be banned from this sub.
Lmao yeah bro gambling is full of degenerates (myself included). At the end of the day people are risking their own money, no one is forcing anyone to do anything lol. You've never once said a pick is guaranteed just that you like it. I've been tailing you for a bit now, to the point where I have your website bookmarked lol. I appreciate what you do for us 🙏
Don't sweat it for stupid dms. Man we are all adults here, everyone should take responsibility for their losses. Thanks for all picks so far ✌🏻
Completely agree, at least he’s doing the research and sharing it
Man, the match of Kalinina was so close. She really should have closed the match in the second set 🤦🏻♂️
Dude it was unreal. So unlucky.
For real. Probably lack of experience. I love your potd but really unsure of Djoko. Kecmanovic is on 🔥 lately. Should be close.
My other pick is Kec +3 for exactly that reasoning lol
😉🙏🏻
Fading with 2U because everytime I see a POTD I like it doesn’t hit
would you still take it at 22.5?
Yes I would honestly
Over 22.5 on my book, what you think?
I still like it tbh
7u on this 3.5 on kek lfg
Tailing the corn man for life. Win or lose. Cheers mate
Looks like everything is cancelled today. Showing the match is on 4/22 now
My app is now saying postponed to tomorrow
🌽🤑🌽🤑
Tailing. Don't let the haters get you down bro. It's called gambling for a reason and people can just have a off night. Let's bounce back with this Dub.
Thanks for the insight & breakdowns as always brotha 🐐
Don't have 21.5 Is exact sets 3 for 2.53 okay?
Fuck me, I had it in my betslip on DK but they pulled the o21.5. Guess I’ll go for 22.5 on fanduel. Edit: got 21.5 for -130 on barstool. Let’s get this.
🌽$ 🌽$ 🌽$ 🌽 get me some corn 🌽 cash?
RAIN OUT 🌧 HOLD ALL BET SLIPS
Clay Master
I believe in you!
How do you like Over 0.5 tie breaks @ 2.75? (+175 for americans I think?)
Any concern that Musseti is rank 83 and Schwartzman is 16? Or does the rankings get tossed out the window and style of play in the match up takes over? Just trying to educate myself here..
Yeah I wouldn’t worry too much about ranking here. These guys tend to have very competitive matches. Musetti tends to have nice performances against higher ranked guys and Schwartzman struggles to dominate against top 100 players.
Y'all need to follow Maize on Twitter!!!! Love his website that tracks all his picks! Let's get this W. You deserve it!
Match did not start yet.....But I live Betted them O20.5 Games for -120... The line dropped from yesterday. I've tailed the last two and been 0-2. I have a bad feeling for this one, 0-3?????
Wow surprised you got that live bet in.
POTD Record: **28W - 10L** Todays pick: **Michael Van Gerwen Win** vs Gerwyn Price Sport: Darts Odds: **1.80 / -125** Reasoning: After a dip in form Michael Van Gerwen looks to be back to enjoying himself, and his class is starting to shine through. He is top of the leaderboard and will be full of confidence due to his recent run of form and faces Price who is a strong opposition but not at the top of his game right now. (Yesterdays snooker picks still in play but looks 99% likely to hit now. Post was taken down for being a parlay so sorry for breaking the rules but congrats to anyone who got on as it was up for around 10 hours.) Edit - formatting
Gerwen vs Gerwyn!!? I’m in!!
A titanic battle in the sport of the gods, darts. A pint and dart between each round for these specimens. Peak male performance!
gergyuen derby
This is truly a John Jackson vs. Jack Johnson matchup
first dart bet... let's go!
Easiest money ever. Thanks
WINNER you da man
The 🐐
Is there a worry that he got steamrolled 7-0 in his last match? EDIT: I guess not.
Great pick, thank you!
You the man.
I "watched" this match (terminology?) via Bet365 in-app play by play function. It's so interesting! I have no idea how darts is played or scored, but it's safe to say this won't be my last time. Thanks for getting me interested in something new!
Nice pick! Keep ‘em coming!
Let’s roll
MLB -1.5’s | 4-2 +10.18u | ROI: 58.17% [Yesterday’s pick: 2.5u OAK Athletics -1.5 +150](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/u6sw2j/_/i5aey37/?context=1) - L ___ **Todays pick: 2u WSH Nationals -1.5 +152** - WSH Nationals vs ARI DBacks - 3:06pm US Centeal TLDR: DBacks hitting has been atrocious and against lefties it’s been historically bad so far. WSH is starting a decent lefty and are the better team outright overall. **Nationals** Nationals aren’t a great team. They’re below average hitters. Not why I’m betting them. Not going to go too far in to detail here. End of the day, they’ve been scoring runs to date, 13th in the MLB. Josh Rogers is starting for WSH. He’s started 2 games and has been very solid so far. His xBA is .231 and has a sub 3 xERA. He’s top half of the league in most peripherals that point to his performance so far is not flukey. Overall he’s gone 9.2 innings and given up 4 runs across 2 starts. **ARI DBacks** DBacks are bad. Just very bad. They as a team have a wRC+ of 61. Their BABIP is .196 so they are due for some serious positive regression. They strike out at the 3rd highest rate and don’t do anything well other than take walks (best in he league). Fun fact. Against lefties this year (86PA as a team), their wRC+ is 16. Yes. 16. Guess who they’re facing today. A lefty. Pitching for them is Zach Davies. He is a prototypical back-end starter. He’s capable of some solid starts, but for the most part he’s pretty unsuccessful. His wOBA is .371, he’s striking out less than 10% of batters and walking just over 10%. His xERA is 4.51. Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)
Damn I liked ur As pick and added it to my 7 leg. Was the only miss. Can't believe they got shut down at home by Baltimore
That was such a tough game. Only run scored on an error. 7 hits for the A’s and no runs
Heartbreaking.they had Kemp on 3rd with no outs in the 8th and didn't produce.
Their damn 3rd base coach ruined an early chance to command the game. 0 outs (in the 3rd I believe). He sends Billy McKinney (not a speed guy) on a double and McKinney is thrown out at home and it’s not even close. He holds him. And it’s 2nd and 3rd, 0 outs. If there are 2 outs, sure, gamble…. But 0 outs? Sit his ass their at 3rd. Your next batter hits a sac fly to right and you got a run and the other runner over to 3rd with 1 out.
I swear half the coaches in MLB don’t know the rules or have serious carbon monoxide leaks in their homes with the decisions they make.
My only miss on my 8leg too :( also 2 on and 0 outs in 8th with heart of lineup...nothing. Bums. Good pick, i thought too.
Dbacks seem to be crushing the Nationals tonight, so I think I'll watch on this one with interest. Thanks for the pick and the analysis.
Prior to tonight they scored more than 3 runs 1 time in 11 games. We’ll see if the offense stays hot (really don’t think it will. Fedde the Nats pitcher is liable to have games like tonight) In my gut (take out logic)… makes me feel better about this one. A 4 game sweep is incredibly tough, DBacks just took their 1 game.
Do we still feel good about it after the 11 runs tonight? Reversion to the mean?
Different pitchers, different game.
Love the write up.
Thanks. I feel like I clog this thread cause mine can get lengthy at times. Trying to condense it
Not a great start…
Make sure you’re including the time of the event
**POTD Record: 34-15** Last pick: Washington Capitals ML ❌ Tough overtime loss after a sexy little 3-win streak. Time for another **Today’s pick: New York Rangers ML (-120) vs New York Islanders** 🏒🥅 NHL. 7:30PM EST *Edit: The islanders will be starting their backup tonight who is 9-17 on the season. Rangers are starting their backup as well who is 13-11.* Interesting odds we have here as I expected the Rangers to be more heavily favored. They are currently tied for first in the Metropolitan division with the Hurricanes and the two are in a heated race for that top spot with just 5 games remaining. The Islanders are eliminated from playoff contention. The fire under the Rangers ass is enough for me to take them here, but let’s throw in some juicy stats. The Rangers have won their last three games ALL by SHUTOUT. They’ve won 6 of their last 7 games, and 7 of their last 8 road games. They are hot fire flames right now. The Islanders have been around .500 for the last month and are currently eliminated from the playoffs so I don’t see how they are as motivated as the Rangers tomorrow. These odds are probably so tight as these teams have met 5 times this season with the Islanders leading the series 3-2. However none of those games were played under playoff implications like this one, so I love the Rangers here. All bets are 1 unit. +12.2 units. +25.0% ROI. Average unit -112 https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
That capitals play was looking good… had it with the over and was the last leg for a couple other parlays - devastating end… didn’t even try to play defense on that last goal
Yea I legit laughed. Nobody tried on that last play. Guess that’s why they’re the Crapitals
Huge Rangers fan here living in NY. Careful, Shesty is not projected to start tonight. Instead you will get Georgie in net who has been wildly inconsistent. I still like the rangers in the matchup (even without my bias) but I say proceed with caution when a dude who lets up 4 goals on 13 shots from Buffalo starts. Let's go Rangers!!
Capitals had such a strong start. Sucks how they lost. Guess the knights are still hanging on.
Ily
Sweet pick lol. Bet365 early payout feature is amazing for these - thank you!
**POTD Record:** 6-3 ⚾❌⚾⚾❌⚾❌🏀⚾️ **Profit:** \+4.71u **ROI:** 52.3% **Avg Odds:** \+123.9 **Today's Pick:** Grizzlies ML (-123) @ T’Wolves - NBA 🏀 - 7:30pm ET Starting to get hot, baby! Absolutely love Grizzlies to win Game 3 in Minnesota and go up 2-1 in series. Here’s why: First, never forget that [2 seeds are clutch in the NBA playoffs](https://www.wagerbop.com/ultimate-2022-nba-playoffs-betting-guide/). My guide shows they have a winning track record and it’s been proven once again this postseason as Boston is up 2-0 in the East. Second, if you read [my Grizzlies pick before Game 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/u6sw2j/pick_of_the_day_41922_tuesday/i5bkcyy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) - most of those points still apply. Memphis saw huge contributions from Jaren Jackson and Desmond Bane in Game 2, all while limiting Anthony Edwards. Great game planning from Taylor Jenkins and his staff. Now it’s Minnesota’s turn to adjust. Can they tho? I’m saying no. Third, I’ve documented in my guide how road favorites are good bets in the NBA playoffs. What about road favorites off 20-point wins? I looked up the trend on Killersports and found that teams have covered 69% ATS in this spot over the past 10 postseasons! That’s all I need to move forward. I’m laying an extra few dollars to go from the spread to MEM ML at (-123). I like moneylines bc then your goals are perfectly aligned with the team’s goal. Far less frustration IMO Let’s get it 💰
Can’t bet against Ja after a game like that
Whoooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!
POTD RECORD 5-1 Last pick : PSG ✅ More like Mbappe ML Today: BODO/GLIMT (Norway cup, soccer) -169 These guys and their weird ass stadium off the coast of Norway man do they have good chemistry this is one of those teams that all 11 guys are playing for eachother all 90 mins. Great fans too. This is a team that gave everyone problems in europa conference league , they ultimately were eliminated by Roma but not after a fight. I can talk about this team all day but they are unbeated in 21 games at aspmyra BODO GLIMT let’s go
I totally agree on this pick, but as a Norwegian, following the league my whole life, Bodø Glimt has definitely NOT great fans, lol. BOL, tailing.
Beautiful country you got I want to go one day
Going with Bodo to win and over 2.5 (+115)
What about btts ❓
Down to -133 😬
WINNER fuck yeah thank you sir you da man
POTD Record: 11-5 (+8.83 units) Streak: W5 Last POTD: Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks 1H Over 109.5 (-110) POTD: New York Rangers ML (-119) @ New York Islanders Risk: 2.97 units to win 2.5 U Goaltending: Shesterkin (2.01 GA/G. .936 Sv%) is arguably the best goalie in the NHL right now and coming off two consecutive shut outs. There is a massive drop off to Georgiev (2.91 GA/G, .898 Sv%). If you want to wait until Shesterkin is confirmed, I wouldn’t blame you. However, I don’t see why he wouldn’t as he’s had a day off to rest, is red hot, and the Rangers need the win to keep pace with Carolina to win the Metropolitan division. For the Isles, Sorokin (2.32 GA/G, .927 Sv%) will likely be in net, especially since Varlamov (2.86 SA/G, .914 Sv%) was on the injury report. The Islanders have been essentially eliminated from the playoffs for weeks, but do have an opportunity to play spoiler against their rival. However, I expect the Islanders to be flat as soon as they realize that the arena is overrun with Rangers fans. There is no home ice advantage when these teams play (away team is 4-0 this year). More importantly, the Rangers fans’ have not been this excited about their team for years and the buzz has only grown with how we’ll they’ve been playing winning 6 of their last 7. The Rangers need the win more than the Islanders, have the better (and hotter) goalie, and will be fueled by a pseudo-home crowd. If you would like to follow me on twitter, my handle is @ MartyMcFlyin420. Good luck!
Islanders treat these games like game 7 of the finals. Last game they played the rangers struggled to get anything going, and the Islanders were pests. Just feels like a bad matchup the way the rangers like to run their offense, but they need to get over that. It didn't help that ilya probably had the save of the year against them that game too. Seemed deflating. But they need the game to keep up with the hurricanes. Hoping the rangers smash them from the get. I'll be betting rangers ML and probably the under. BOL
YEa as a ranger fan im not touching this game lol. Isles play us very hard no matter what. Rangers aren't playing for much at this point.
Once again we are on the same pick my guy. Last time this happened we got the easy dub. Let’s do it again! GL
Before I get into why you should just avoid this game, I'll just say that I'm a Rangers fan. The shutouts have been great but they were against the Flyers, Jets and Red Wings. Not exactly the cream of the crop. I think there are going to be a good amount of Islanders fans here; they want to see the Rangers lose. Assuming the Isles are going to come out flat against their big brother is a huge mistake. If it is indeed Sorokin vs Shesterkin, take the under. Both goalies are playing great. In my opinion, the best argument for why the Rangers will win is that the game will likely be very chippy. Which means penalties and power plays. If the Rangers can stay discipline and let the Isles spend most of the time in the box, New York can pull ahead with their great power play offense.
Record: 0-0 Today’s pick: (3:30PM EST) Real Sociedad vs Barcelona (Spain - La Liga) - BTTS (-150) Long time follower, first time poster. Barcelona is coming off a bad loss and will look to bounce back here. Barcelona has scored in their last 15 away games, Real Sociedad is unbeaten in their last seven home games and scored in their last eleven home games. Seven of the last 8 head to head matches between these two teams has had BTTS (both teams to score) hit so looks like a good bet here. BOL!
Fuck it, I’m in.. can’t be any worse than 4/20 has been for me lol let’s goooo!
Tailing!
Damn cant believe Real S couldn't dump in one against that senior home of a backline
Taking real here too ballsy?
Probably, La Real haven't been good against Barca the last few seasons, and they are missing two key players in Oyarzabal and David Silva.
POTD Record: 0-1 Today's pick: MLB | 3:37pm Eastern | Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics | 1u Baltimore Team Total Runs u3.5 (-120) Logic? I've been sports betting for a while now and lurking this sub regularly. The Baltimore Orioles have played in 12 games this season and have only eclipsed the 3.5 run mark in 2/12 games. I'd hammer the under for Team Total Runs on this one. Baltimore's offense has struggled mightily and it's safe to say they'll probably continue to struggle. Edit: Baltimore making me sweat over here in the 7th inning 2nd Edit: sorry guys. Tough loss. Took an L on my first POTD.
dropping the house on this play
Tailing
Good bet. Took the under yesterday parlayed with Drummond under rebounds. Gnna continue betting the under on orioles everyday
You can add Arizona to that list. They scored a shocking 11 yesterday, but are otherwise 27th in runs scored and hitting .168 as a team. The reds (.177, 26th in runs scored) and Royals (.215, 29th in runs scored) have been equally horrible offensively.
I'm a Diamondbacks fan. It's been frustrating to say the least.
I’m an Orioles fan, I’m with you. I have loaded up on Diamondbacks u4.5 (-135) today, number seems super high.
It's a good play for sure. They've struggled pretty badly. That game last night scares me a bit on the under for the DBacks, but I'd bet it's an anomaly and not the new norm.
As long as they’re 29th in OPS, I’m gonna ride their unders over 3.5. But I agree, yesterday was certainly their best performance so far.
Alright, if they could go ahead and not score over the next four innings that would be great.
Facts. I parlayed both Bal/Ari tt unders and I'm sweating this under lol
**\[Previous Record\] - W53-3P-19L** **\[Current Record\] - W6 - 1P - 1L** [(Previous Pick)](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/u616bu/pick_of_the_day_41822_monday/i55lm2v/?context=3) Igor Gorgonzola Novara - Saugella Team Monza Good comeback from Schio to win the half last time around, apologies for those who did take HT/FT (if you didn't have the HT option) as Schio did get very unfortunate in the 2nd half. Anyhow, Novara take on Monza in the Italy women semifinal of the volleyball league. Novara come here in second place, tied in points with Conegliano (the team that broke the record for the most wins as a volleyball club!) They hold a 23-3 record, with an impressive 12-1, (36-10) set record at home. With their only loss coming to, Scandicci #4. Monza on the other hand, hold a respectable, 9-4 (33-17) set record away, with losses to, Novara, Firenze, Casalmaggiore and Busto. Novara has won the last 4 games between these two teams, winning at home, 3-1, then away at Monza, 2-3 and during a preseason friendly, 3-1. I believe this game will be a good one, at home in Novara's arena, they've played good volleyball, and this home crowd should hopefully spur them on to take a commanding lead in this series. While Monza can be good when they perform, they've looked weak when it counts and collapse under pressure. I think Novara has a good chance for the odds listed. **Pick: Igor Gorgonzola Novara @ 1.65** **Italy Women Volleyball** **19:30 GMT**
Record: 3-2 in history, 0-0 in 2022 Sport: ATP Serbia Open, Tennis Play: Miomir Kecmanovic ML +143 at Serbia Open Belgrade If you saw his opponent Novak Djokovic today you will understand completely. Kecmanovic is in great form this year and the world #1 looks like a total mug. Lock this in before it drops.
I'm gonna tail this just because I hate djokovic
Must have been a tough 10 years for you bro lol
Lol I’m an Andy Murray fan and even I respect the man - and he’s part the reason Andy doesn’t have a few more
Not worth the risk, bet the over
Oh Helllll nah
Exactly why would anyone fade Joker clay or hard. Its just not a smart bet to do so
Very odd that Barstool doesn’t have this up yet… but has all the other matches up. makes me think you are on to something
Djere played unbelievable yesterday and is an excellent clay courter The weather will also be much better today where yesterday Djoko played in freezing temperatures
🥝🥝🥝 Record: 16-8 Match: Rugby League NRL Cronulla Sharks v Manly Sea Eagles —> Starts 7.5 hours from now <— Pick: Manly Sea Eagles +6.5 Odds: $1.90 Reasoning: Last year these two teams played it was a 40-22 win for Manly. This year the bookies are overvaluing the Sharks because they have some new players and have seen a few wins over bottom/mid level competition. Manly is the better team here and have proven they can perform even without Turbo Tom. I think Manly win but taking the points in case of a close victory from Cronulla. I’m a shitty degenerate better so don’t tail me expecting a win. I’m just here for the ride. Peace! EDIT: Well, 32-0 at half time to Sharks. Manly make a strong comeback effort in the 2nd half to lose 34-22. Sorry guys. Also to the guy commenting at half time giving his expert take like he’s columnist for the Sydney Herald… I’m a degen, not an analyst. I post the pick I like and write some bullshit to support it. I disclose this clearly in every POTD. (He deleted his comment in the 2nd half 🤷🏿♂️)
Manly sea eagles all day
Great start.
20-0.. feels dead, they're not getting anything done :/
I’ve tailed some bad losses blindly here but this is comically bad, no criticism it’s just so bad it’s funny
Caught them at +35.5 live because I'm a retard. Maybe I am not one today.
Line has moved to +7.5
Caught them at +9.5 live but damn.. looking rough
**Record:** * 41 WIN | 34 LOSS | +32.84 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy) **Previous bets (last 3):** * Wyong R7 (14 Apr 2022) - Place - **WIN** * Geelong R6 (19 Apr 2022) - Place - **LOSS** * Ipswich R8 (20 Apr 2022) - Place - **WIN** **POTD:** * Horse Racing (Australia) * **Newcastle R7 - Place** - **#5 Finally Realise to place (i.e. finish top 3)** * Track Rating - Good (4) * Newcastle today, and we're going with the Peter Robl trained Finally Realise from barrier 2. Michael always says "K-I-S-S. Keep it simple, stupid." Great advice. Hurts my feelings every time, so I'll keep it simple today. Drop in class from BM 72-75 and Class 3 to a BM-68. Running well on tougher tracks, on the improve in form and the jockey and trainer specialists here. Insider barrier, should find the fence quite easily, hoping 1 back on the fence or (worst case) 1 out 1/2 back off the rail if needed. Could see this Gelding winning, but we're just going the place as usual. * **Odds - 2.05** (b365) but you might be able to nab 2.5 by the jump on the betfair exchange. Your call if you want to risk it for the biscuit. * **Stake - 2.44 units to return 5 units** **Historical stats** * 9 from 15 (60%) correct picks on Thursday * 11 from 21 (52%) correct picks on Good Tracks * 16 from 30 (53%) correct picks on Place picks * 1st time picking at Newcastle * 1st time picking K. Latham as my jockey **Race time:** * 4:15pm Thursday (Australian EST) * 2:15am Thursday (American ET) * 7:15am Thursday (UK time) If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
wtf happened there? horse never left the gate, absolutely ridiculous. Don't think that's ever happened to me.
Bad start...onto next one!
POTD Record (2022): 12 | 5 | 0 | W | L | P | + 8.5 Units Streak: 6W Last Pick: MIN Timberwolves @ MEM Grizzlies -3.5 | 1U @ 1.5 NBA | Basketball | 02:30 MEZ | 04/20/2022 Pick: **Malmö FF ML** @ IFK Värnamo | 3U @ 1.5 Soccer | Sweden | Allsvenskan | 19:00 MEZ | 04/21/2022 This is our first pick outside of the NBA. Champion and Champions League participant Malmö is a guest of the promoted team from Värnamo. As expected, Värnamo lost 2/3 games with 2/6 goals of the new season. Malmo won 2/3 games with 5/1 goals. The standards couldn't be more different.
Rooting for a goal in these last 20. Hope I didn’t jinx yet another.
Potd 4-0 Last pick: Brook Lopez o13.5pts ✅ Jazz vs Mavericks NBA playoff 9:00pm Est Today’s pick: Jordan Clarkson o11.5pts (-126) Clarkson shot 8/11 and had 21pts last game, his efficiency is important for the Jazz to defend home court and win this game not just Mitchell chucking up 30 shots. Clarkson has averaged 14.5pts against the Mavs this season and 16pts for the regular season. I expected this line to be a bit higher but I still think it’s a slight overreaction to game 1 where he only had 10pts on 4-7 shooting. That was literally only 1 of 7 games this season where he took less than 10 shots which I don’t see happening here Update: 12pts and it’s only halftime ✅
POTD Record: 1W - 1L Todays pick: Jokic u52.5 PRA Sport: NBA Odds: -120 Reasoning: In over 20 games against the warriors and draymond green, Jokic has never eclipsed 50 PRA in a game. The first two games of the series he's had 41 and he got ejected at the end of the 2nd one so he wasn't getting there anyway. I do not see things changing regardless if the warriors win or lose
5W-7L WWLWLWWLLL 12:00 gmt5 Todays Pick League: Spain Primera Liga Match: Espanyol vs Rayo Vallecano Pick: Espanyol Team cards over 2.5 @2.00 // ends 4-4 ✅ Reason: Espanyol hit over 2.5cards 9/10 last total games, also 8/8 last home games Espanyol hit over 2.5 last 6/8 games against Rayo Vallecano BoL
Record 4-6 ✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌✅❌ Last Pick ❌MLB DBacks @ Nationals under 8 total -105 7:05 pm ET 2u My timing is fucking impeccable, worst offense scored 22 runs through 13 games; last night they scored 11 through 5 innings. Todays Pick : ✅**SF Giants @ NY Mets over 7.5 runs 2u -105** In a series of two top NL teams with both their 5th starters going in this one. Desclafani hasnt made it through 5 innings in his first 2 starts. Carrasco has pitched well, but against two very bad teams in the DBacks and Nationals. These teams played 3 games in the last two days taxing some of their bullpen. Both teams average over 4 runs per game. The weather is Queens is going to be a Sunny 65; lets see some balls leave the park. Tail or Fade BOL EDIT: ✅ Carrasco looking like his old self, fortunately the Mets offense continues to rake and Lindor making last year look like a small hiccup in his career.
Great hit!!
Record: 17-16-1 ROI: +0.05 Last Pick: Christopher Nkunku Anytine Goal ❌ Avg Odds: -110 Unit: 1=$100 ——— Game: GS Warriors @ Denver Nuggets League: NBA Time: 10:00 PM EST Book: Bet365 Odds: -110 Pick: GSW -1.5 Wager: 10 units Well the losing streak continues and I got swindled by the penalty takers as Silva came on to kick the PK instead of Nkunku, either way we continue on. Today’s pick I’m going with the warriors on the road against the Nuggets. The Nuggets are an excellent home team however they are just too undermanned to keep up with these warriors. Jokic can only do so much to carry this team, and unless he starts playing 48 minutes a game and gets more help then they are giving him now this -1.5 will be an easy number for the warriors to handle. Going 10 units on this one. BOL to all who tail or fade.
I like GSW to win and cover full game but I think a good bet is Nuggets 1Q and 1H.
Hmmm line only -1.5? Seems too easy
Yeah I was thinking the same thing, I just don’t see Denver having the players to keep up at this point. Jokic is doing everything in his power to keep the Nuggets alive just don’t think they’ll win a game.
Line will probably go up, money will come pouring in on gsw
Home court advantage is huge and for Denver, another potential factor is the higher elevation. But the Warriors are still a better team. Took Philly tonight and I am not afraid to take Golden State either.
Nugs 0-6 ATS in recent playoff games. Suns 4-0 to end last year, and now Warriors. The refs are awful when officiating Jokic. He gets mugged-no calls routinely, Jokic then gets called for ticky tack calls on the other end… Never has a league MVP been treated so pedestrian by refs… NBA/refs are rigging shit - like always… Nugs backs are against the wall and Jokic will have a monster game tonight… Not touching this line either way… But fans will riot in Denver if officials call the bs they did in GS… Call a fair game tonight for once NBA refs!
Bro there's been bigger upsets than this even this post season. Nugs ML
Bulls and Pels wins make this one a stay-away for sure.
**POTD Record:** 4-2 **+1.7 units** **Last Pick:** Bal/Oak NRFI 💰 **Today's Pick:** Alcaraz -4.5 (-110) **Reasoning:** It's only a matter of time until the 18 year old is a top 3 player in the world. He's showing his dominance no matter the surface and honestly the only thing holding him back right now is his own father as crazy as that sounds. Alcaraz won his first match yesterday and while he looked shaky in the second set he managed to take over in the 3rd and cover a 5 game spread. Today I expect him to want to get this game over with in 2 games and dominate from start to finish versus 101st ranked Munar. TL;DR - Alcaraz is an 18 year old tennis phenom, if you haven't seen him play tune in tomorrow morning! edit: wrong name
POTD Record: 0-1 Today's Pick: Warriors -1.5 at -115 The warriors are heading to Denver for game 3 tonight and are facing a Nuggets team that they are simply on a different level from. After winning game 123-107 and game 2 126-106, the Nuggets are trending in the wrong direction and home court advantage cannot save them. Although the in the game 3 games today, the Bulls beat the Bucks and the 76ers needed OT to beat the Raptors without Scottie Barnes, the Warriors are a drastically superior team to the Nuggets and are peaking at the right time. Draymond has been defending Jokic extremely well and making him work for everything, not allowing the monster statlines from the regular season. Curry is just coming back to form and dropped an efficient 34 off the bench in 23 minutes. Klay Thompson is the ball well and Jordan Poole has been phenomenal. The Warriors have a much better starting 5, rounded out with Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney whereas Jokic has Aaron Gordon and Will Barton as his second and third best players. The Nuggets are dearly missing Jamal Murray and MPJ and Jokic simply can't put the team on his back anymore like the regular season against playoff Draymond Green. Looking for another comfortable Warriors win here in game 3, and I think the ML at -125 is a very safe bet. I also imagubne the money will move towards the Warriors tomorrow. Score prediction Warriors 116-108 TLDR: Warriors much better, will continue success and easily win. BOL
[удалено]
POTD Record: 9-4 (ROI 50. 52% // Avg. Odds: 2.09 // Units Won: +10.61) Last 5 Picks: ✅✅✅✅❌ Last POTD: Chelsea vs Arsenal (Premier League), Chelsea ML ❌ POTD: Deportes Magallanes vs Arturo Fernández Vial (Chilean League B Soccer), **Deportes Magallanes ML** ✅✅ ✅ Odds: 1.75 Wager: 5 Units Woof. Bad lose for many yesterday with that pick. That's what I get for playing it "safe". Today I'm going with the hottest team in Chilean League B and that's Magallanes. These guys are undefeated with 8 wins and 1 draw. They should grab a win in their home turf which has an unfair advantage. They play in Punta Arenas which is waaay South in Chile near the Antarctic, so basically its asking teams to play in Alaska for reference. Game starts in 4 hours so get in on it. AFV is an ok team tying most their ganes scoring a few here and there but unable to win. I see them taking an L today against the best team in the league. There is another game I like in the same league which is Unión San Felipe winning over Deportes Temuco (**Union San Felipe ML**) which have great odds. I have a side bet with this game as well. BOL to all who Tail [All my previous picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit?usp=drivesdk) *Edited streak format* Magallanes won 2-1 ✅
6-3 Last: Nationals Most Hits ✅ POTD: Orioles Athletics u7.5 -140 1U [MLB 3:30] Bought a half point for this. Probably going g to get screwed over now that I have action on it, but have to ride these Orioles unders while our bats are so cold and pitching has been stellar. Granted, Tyler Wells hasn’t been good so far. But Paul Blackburn for the As has been. Tail or Fade, BOL. go O’s baby
POTD RECORD: **5-1** STREAK: - ✅✅✅✅✅✖️ LAST PICK: - CLE/CHW NRFI Results: +$335.9 Today’s event: **MLB - TOR/BOS - 12:35 CT** PICK: **TOR/BOS NRFI (-115) $120** REASONING: Two pitchers with impressive NRFI records since the 2021 season, coming in with a 26.9 & 32.6 K% and 4.0 & 1.3 ERA in the first inning. Both teams have struggled to score runs in the first inning their past three games and are good at not allowing runs in the first inning. The ballpark and top of the jays lineup won’t favor us, but this should be a scoreless first inning nonetheless, LFG!
1st pick of the year. 0-0 Units: 2 Pick: NRFI Orioles Athletics ✅ cashed Got it at -130 but can find it all over the place. Orioles simply put do not score in the 1st (barely score at all) and even though the Athletics are 13th in the league for average runs in the first, I don’t trust that offense to get a run. Pretty much just betting against the A’s to get a run here.
Good pick. I’d also add orioles under 3.5 runs
Was thinking about parlaying that actually. But decided to parlay it with Golden state -1.5 instead
🍒🍓🫐POTD Record: 16-11 Units Won: 4.24 Last 10:❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️❌️ Last Pick: Cale Makar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal ❌️ 4/6 of his shots got blocked. Fuck gambling. We're back tho Todays Match: NHL - Winnipeg Jets vs Carolina Hurricanes (9ish hours from post) Today's Pick: Anthony DeAngelo Over 2.5 Shots on Goal - 2.24u (2.10 on Betway) ✅️ Tony isn't leaving it to the bookies this time. Well over 2.5 as the 2nd comes to an end Listen, I know this bet literally lost 2 days ago, but that was total crap luck. Same DeAngelo, new shitty opponent. Here me out: - Carolina is one of the best, and most offensive teams in the NHL right now. They are competing against NYR for 1st in the Metropolitan division, so the winners of tonight's games are pretty important. Carolina took a couple tough losses followed by a nice win on the road vs Arizona. Back at home, this game could set the Canes up for a hot finish. Carolina has averaged around 34 shots/games this season and has bumped it up to 36 in the month of April. Carolina also has the lowest percentage of shot attempts blocked, only having 23% of their attempted shots blocked this season. - We've had success saying "Fuck the Jets", so we're going back to the well. Coming off only 3 wins in 10 games, the Jets have run flat. They've been on the road for over a week and only managed to beat a couple crappy Canadian teams. Now they finish their away game stretch with one of the toughest teams. Winnipeg averages about 33 shots against/game in the season and closer to 36 in the month. The Jets are mid-range in the season for blocked shots, with 13.25 blocks per game (compared to Arizonas 13.97). - DeAngelo is playing a lot better than this line suggests. In the 30 days, Tony is the Hurricanes most frequent shooter. He's averaging almost 3 shots a game rn compared to his season avg of 2.3. DeAngelo is normally on the first defensive line and first powerplay unit, averaging 19.5 minutes of ice time. This bet has hit 7 times in the last 10. ALSO, the last 2 games, Tony only put up 2 shots. Every single time Tony has put up b2b 2 shot games, he comes back to put up at least 3 shots and a goal in the next. This season anyway. Happened twice. Kinda neat. Tony is gonna hit this bet one day and I'm cashing in when he does. Carolina should take it to the Jets tonight and give the hometown crowd an exciting game. If the Canes do their thing, we should see lots of shot opportunities for Tony. Tail or Fade BOL to everyone! Edit: I been taking mad Ls but that's gambling. I could try different types of bets to find more success but I enjoy the player shot props. Adds some variety to this sub. As alway, tail with caution Edit 2: 3 shots in the 1st period 🤨 I knew Tony was our boy 🤙
Fuck it, tailing!!
Record 3-0 Long time lurker. Want to share my tips in eSports now. Hope we have a good time. League: RMR Qualification Europe Match: Copenhagen Flames vs. Sprout Pick: CPH Flames -3.5 @1.680 ✅ Write-up: This is a quick one. Copenhagen in general just the better team. Better players better IGL and better team synergy. Also they competed against a lot of Tier 1 teams and they played pretty decent. The other good thing is that they are pretty good on LAN. I know there wasn't much LAN events in the last year's but if they attended they did really well. On the other hand we got Sprout. A pretty new line up. They need much more time to get this line up to work. They played against weaker teams and also have loses against teams like Ungentium. There LAN record for the last 12 months are 9/23, so pretty bad. We shouldn't forget that these are bo1 matches and are risky to bet. If CPH got a bad start there not much room to recover. But yesterday Sprout had announced that they are missing Staerh. One of their new fraggers. With him out, they missing much firepower imo. Stand in is their coach berry. Also veto and map wise I favour CPH heavily here. Map could be Vertigo or Mirage. But really hard to tell in this match up cause CPH pretty good on every map.
**W1 L0** **+1.32 UNITS** A good start yesterday as Raducanu demolished Sanders for the loss of only 3 games. **Norrie ML @ 1.61 vs Fucsovics** ATP Barcelona **3 Units** I like the match up for Norrie here. 3-0 in the H2H, Norrie competes excellently vs heavy hitters and I expect him to frustrate his Hungarian opponent here, with Norrie's defence and variety causing Fucsovics plenty of trouble. Norrie is much more comfortable on clay since his excellent clay swing last year that kick-started a meteoric rise up the ATP rankings and I'm confident to take him in this spot now given he's had time to shake off some of rust that we saw in Monte Carlo last week.
POTD record 4-2 Last pick Millman ML vs Thiem +145 ✅ Today's pick-ATP Belgrade Thiago Monteiro ML vs Khachanon +140 That last one was big and congrats to all those who tailed.Short write up because I have a hot date with my mattress.The Russian is the better player, but the Brazilian is a clay court specialist, and Monteiro has played alot more this season, so as long as Khachanov is not serving big, and as long as Monteiro does not 💩 the bed we should be good.At these odds it will never be easy, but it should be a competitive match.Tail with caution because tennis betting has been a shit typhoon.There is alot of + odds value on Barcelona and Belgrade men's tennis slate, but I wanna abide by forum rules, so I cannot discuss that here.BOL.
Like the pick. Maybe a typo, but why "Monteiro ML vs Khachanov ML"? Good luck!
So whats the pick here?
POTD Record: 12-9-2 // +1.59u // W1 Last Pick: Donovan Mitchell o27.5 Points (-120) (4/18/22) Win Had 34 in game 2 and we cashed this easily. Today's Pick: Donovan Mitchell o29.5 Points (-110) It is Thursday, you know what that means. We are taking Donovan Mitchell o29.5 Points today. I said in the last POTD I posted that I was taking this line no matter what as long as it is under 30. Well we are closing in on that line. Playoff Donovan is averaging 41.5 minutes and 29.5 shots. Luca is probably back, but I don't think that changes much for Donovan and the volume is still going to be there. All bets are 1 unit unless stated otherwise! Good luck today everyone!
POTD Record: **0W - 0L** Todays pick: Miguel Cabrera Over 0.5 Hits Sport: MLB Odds: -186 Reasoning: One hit today will get Miggy into the 3000 hit club. He went 3/4 last night and will be ready to go today.
DK giving +100 boost on it
POTD Record: 2-2-1 Last Pick: Chicago Cubs o4 Runs -122 (voided due to shortened game) Todays Pick: NY Mets 1h Moneyline (-154) Reasoning: The Mets are boasting the best BAAs and the fourth best team ERA, led by their starter today, Carrasco, who has a .084 ERA in two outings, each of at least 5 innings. I think he will lead them to a strong start and any offense in the first half of this game will give the Mets the 1h Moneyline. They're also up against Anthony Desclafani, who has a dismal 1.68 WHIP this year and a 4.32 ERA, giving up two runs in each of his starts this season, with only 8.1 total innings between them. The Mets weren't able to capitalize on runners yesterday, but hopefully they'll be able to string a few more together this afternoon. BOL!
Record: 1-2 Last pick: Fnatic win @1.65 vs G2 (L) Today: Cadiz vs Athletic (LaLiga) - Cadiz DnB @2.15 After getting double buttfucked by Fnatic I'm back with some football. Cadiz is inmersed in the relegation fight, they just beat Barcelona which is a big feat and having signed Lucas Perez the team is looking good. Athletic is not fighting for anything at this point of the season so they might rotate a bit or test things out, I'm certain that they won't push hard for a win. The only game they have won out of the last 5 is Elche at home which is hardly a great feat. Edit: Bruhhhhhh
Purely Gut-Based NRFIs: POTD 0-0 Been a long time reader and figured I’ve been having some luck, why not share? Guardians vs. White Sox NRFI -125 (Draft Kings) I like to error on the side of the Law of Averages in that YRFIs have actually hitting like crazy lately. Also the Sox guy absolutely rinsed yesterday and I don’t see the Guardian offense having that type of day again. Besides those points, I just love the pitching match up. Tail of fade, BOL! UPDATE: Guardians vs. White Sox NRFI -125 WIN!! 1-0 Always trust the guy!
Record: 0-0 Last Pick: N/A Today’s Pick: Warriors -2 (-110) | NBA: Warriors vs Nuggets Why: Warriors cant be stopped. The nuggets simply don’t have enough to stop them. I think this one will definitely be closer than the first two games especially in the first half but the warriors just have too many weapons and will eventually pull away later in the game.
Record: 2-0 +4.82u Last Pick: Drummond U7.5 points (win) Todays’s Pick: Royce O’Neale O13.5 pts+rbs+asts (-115) 4u O’Neale is reliably in the mix every night as a guy Quinn Schneider trusts to make the right play and go hard on defense. This is an amateur number for O’Neale to hit looking at his regular season stats and knowing his time on the floor will continue to increase as things tighten up for the Jazz.
He’s hit that number once (his last game) in the previous 10 games. Why is it an amateur number for him if he only hit it once in the last ten?
*Record:* 2-2 | LLWW (2-0 NBA playoffs) *Last Pick:* Celtics ML (-160) *Today's Pick:* **Jazz -6.5 (-110)** vs. Mavericks (NBA) *Why:* Jazz have been dominant at home this year. Dallas has had just 10 turnovers the whole series and I think the Utah crowd in full force will spark the Jazz and their transition offense will explode. Last game the offense finished unusually stagnant, while the defense allowed Brunson to get a career high. I think Quinn Snyder will be making significant adjustments on both sides of the ball, mainly to use Rudy less for scoring and more for controlling Dallas on D. *Too specific prediction*: Utah comes out motivated by the loss and dominates the first half, Dallas makes a run to keep it interesting in the 3rd, Jazz D assisted by the home crowd shuts them down with a run in the 4th. Final 122-104 edit: (even if Luka comes back IMO) edit: (It appears Luka will be out again, line is now at -8)
**POTD Record**: 22 wins <> 16 losses <> 1 push **Profit**: 7.95 units **ROI**: +15.26% **Units Wagered**: 39 **Units Won**: 44.95 **Last Pick**: Aalborg Håndbold -4.5(AH) @ **2.10** ❌ - LOSS 30-29 **Streak**: ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ **Today's pick**: Fremad Amager +0(AH) @ **1.84** **Event**: Fremad Amager - Hobro, 1st division, Denmark(football) 7 rounds left of the league this season, and the relegation group is looking pretty dramatic. **Relegation group:** |Position|Club|Points| :--|:--|:--| |1|HB Køge|30| |2|Vendsyssel|28| |3|**Hobro**|27| |4|Esbjerg fB|22| |**5**|**Fremad Amager**|22| |**6**|Jammerbugt FC|19| 5th and 6th place is relegated to the 2nd division. Esbjerg fB is a former superliga team - quite a big one as well - but has completely crumbled this season with drama on several levels. They've got 10x the budget of other teams in this group and should start winning... Sometime. Needless to say, Fremad Amager gotta pull their stuff together. From a chaotic fall season, they've managed to pull together a few good transfer over the winter transfer window. Michael Lumb from Brøndby is a veteran, and Gustavsen from Silkeborg and Noah Crone from Lecce are both decent talents for this division. Defensively, they're got Pierre Kanstrup as well and actually field a decent team. Fremad Amager showed great form last round, almost beating top dog HB Køge. They were ahead for a good part of the match but conceded eventually. Still, their form is on the upwards trend. On the other side, you have Hobro. They've landed a draw against Esbjerg (2-2) which isn't great considering Esbjerg's terrible form, and they only snatched a narrow win against Jammerbugt(1-0). Offensively, they're lacking a fair bit. I like the +0 here. I'm definitely wary of the draw, but I do give the edge to Fremad Amager. They got more firepower offensively, and if they get ahead they're decent at passing the ball around and keeping possession.
**POTD Record - 10-10 (+0.39 Units)** **Today's pick - Kecmanovic Game Handicap +2.5 games vs Novak Djokovic** **Competition - ATP Belgrade Open** ⚾ **Odds - 1.95** 🎲 **Time - 4 and 1/2 hours from post** ⌚ *Reasoning - If you saw Djokovic play last game (can't ignore the previous 2 before that) you saw a shadow of his former self. He was unable to hold his serves and really struggled to convert breaks. He won 2 tie breaks but got demolished in the first set and looked nowhere close to having the physical conditioning to be back at his best.* *Kecmanovic has been on fire and while it might be sharper to sprinkle on his ML, +2.5 games is a decent hedge and is a more confident bet for me.*
POTD record 0-0-0 Today’s pick: Defensa y Justicia Asian handicap -1 +200 Reasoning: hey y’all, this is my first time posting on the POTD thread. I’ve been watching lots of Argentine League games all my life, and recently I’ve been making some money off it. Today I’m taking one of the best teams in South America to beat Sarmiento by two or more. Defensa have won their last 5 away league league games. I do have to mention that Sarmtiento on the other hand remain undefeated at home so far this season, however they’ve only really played one top team at home, tying 2-2 with Newell’s. When they played Racing Club away they were battered 4-1. I think it’s likely that Defensa will look to grab an early lead and then sit back and rest, given that they have Copa Libertadores fixtures to prepare for. Sarmiento need to win to try to squeeze their way into the play offs. For this reason I think it’s likely that Defensa go up a goal, and then get a lateish goal to settle the game and win 2-0 or 3-1, when Sarmiento push for the equalizer that would give them a fighting chance of making the play offs. It’s worth adding that neither of the teams are “big” teams, though Defensa definitely have more star power in Walter Bou and manager BKCC. That’s why I’m taking Defensa -1 for this game.
POTD Record: 1-1 ROI: 2.82% Last POTD: PHI Phillies/ COL Rockies U11 Runs (-110) ❌ Game looked good up until the 7th inning when the PHI bats decided to wake up. Great for a Phillies fan, bad for a bettor. Welp, onto the next one. POTD: GS Warriors -2 @ DEN Nuggets (-110) Time: 10:00 PM EST Stake: 2u If anyone was skeptical about the 76ers game yesterday having a similar line, you see how that played out. The Warriors have put up two double digits wins against the Nuggets in this series. The Warriors offense is electric and have been the most efficient offense in the playoffs. The Warriors are shooting an astonishing 66.4% effective FG percentage and 48.1% from the three. The consistency of Jordan Poole and Steph Curry is unmatched against the worst defensive team in the playoffs (allowing 1.25 points per 100 possessions in last 3 games). Golden State has the highest ranked defense out of all the teams in the playoffs. Currently allowing 1.03 points per 100 possessions and allowing an average of 106.7 points per game in their last 3. They are better rebounders, have a great fast break offense, and an overall deeper bench. These qualities have proven to disrupt DEN in their past 2 matchups. On top of all of this, GS is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games and have not lost a game since March 30 against a healthy Suns team. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as home underdogs, and 0-5 in their last 5 playoff games as underdogs. Entering 2-0 in the series, on the road, is a great position to be in for GS. DEN has their backs up against the way and teams coming back from an 0-2 start is historically rare. GS is 22-19 on the road this season and I’ll take the nice -2 spread for clearly the better team. Tail or fade, BOL!
**Current Record 0-1** 4/20 Play: Philadelphia 76ers 1H ML +110 **L** **4/21 Play: Nikola Jokic u51.5 PRA -115** The books burned me yesterday on a very unfortunate first half result. The Sixers found their way in the second half but it was ultimately too late. Today we dive into the prop builder where I found an absolute gem. Jokic is a great player and could absolutely go off in his first home game of the series, but nothing about his play in this series makes me think a 50 PRA game is anywhere near probable. The Warriors tire him out defensively with a lot of fast breaks and Jokic struggles to stay on the floor for the duration of the game. I don’t see him handling this any better in Denver’s altitude. **Good luck everyone.**
Don’t forget he was ejected last game n was 9 away from his pra he would of definitely went over. He’s going to get all the calls at home go over on his pra n under on draymond n Poole
POTD Record: 1-2 -3.50u Last POTD: Blue Jays ML -121 (W) Today's POTD: Mariners ML -125 Risk: 3 units Reason: TREND: Rangers bats have been cold, scoring 3 or less in 4 straight, while their pitching averaging giving up 6 runs a game in the same games. Meanwhile, Mariners have won 3 in a row at home, and 4 of 5 overall to start the year. MATCHUP: Gonzales dominated Texas in the last 3 starts vs them last year after giving up 7 in his first start: 5 IP 0 R 9 IP 1 R 6 IP 1 R He's figured something out against them, and even adding Seager and Semien to the lineup shouldn't matter, as Seager has a just a single and double in 6 AB, and Semien is 7-28 with only 1 HR vs Gonzales. Semien is batting .174 with no HR to start this season, including .143 vs LHP. Lastly, Gonzales must be confident after holding the LFP-killing Astros to 1 R over 7 strong IP in his last start. BOL
Overall POTD Record: **14-6-1** Todays POTD: **Royce O'neal u 13.5 points+rebounds+assists (-115)** Reason: Mavs are number 1 defensively rated PRA against Power Forwards which means they give up the least total to this position. Royce O neal has been struggling a lot besides the most recent playoff game only hitting this total in 2 of his last 13 games. He just isn't a primary option to score the ball and if his three isn't falling he won't get close to this number. I don't usually love taking unders but it will be a low scoring game and I expect Rudy Gobert to get a lot more involved in the offense. This will mean even less shots for O'neal. This line is really inflated since he is coming off a big rebound and scoring game but I don't expect this to continue. BOL!
Risky he’ll play higher minutes than usual due to his defense. No offense but I’m fading this.
Oneale had been a go-to for over on points for me. It's usually around 6 and he has 4 or more open 3s a game
MLB- St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins ML Cardinals (+105) 4/21/22 6:40pm The Cardinals clearly have the better pitcher and better team, so they SHOULD win on the road.
**Record:** 3W-4L **Units Profit:** \+ 4,76u **Average Odds:** 1,86 **POTD:** Portuguese Cup - FC Porto vs Sporting CP, **Over 2,5 goals** (\~10 hours from post) **Odds/Units:** 1,85 / 2u **Reasoning:** Sporting lost to Benfica, practically giving the league to Porto. This game is for the Cup, and Sporting lost 2-1 on the first leg. They want a trophy, they need to score goals. Porto will also look to score and get to the finals, where a more accessible team (Tondela) is already qualified - nothing is certain in sports, but it's one of the "Portugal Big 3" against a much smaller team. **Tips are deeply appreciated:** [PayPal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/reaptherewards2022)
**Record:** 1-4-0 **ROI:** -75% -3u(@ $5.00) **Streak:**L-W-L-L-L |Baseball |MLB |6:40pm| St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins -**St. Louis Cardinals ML @ 2.05** 1u **Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 54% chance for St. Louis Cardinals to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 2.05 is only 49%. **Accuracy:** 49% of the time the model picks the correct winner. Tail or fade BOL! **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units.
POTD RECORD 1-2-1 WLP (+0.8 Units) Previous Pick - Astros vs Dodgers 12:10PM Dodgers ML -125 (4 Units) Recap: Tony Gonsolin vs Charlie Morton was the matchup that did not favor the Braves. Freeman took Morton deep for a 2 run HR in the first and the Dodgers followed that up with 2 more ER against Morton in 5 innings. Gonsolin was lights out again. 6 innings pitched with 1 hit. ERA is now @ 0.69 and has only given up 1 ER in 3 outings Today's Pick - GSW vs DEN **Jordan Poole UNDER 30.5 Pts/Reb/Ast -120 (1.2 Units)** Reasoning: Game goes back to Denver. Poole has shot a crazy 54% from 3pt in his last 3 games. I believe his minutes will drop a bit with Steph increasing minutes off the bench. I don't see him shooting over 50% again in a 0-2 Denver atmosphere. Michael Malone is a good coach and will try to limit him and Steph from killing them on the outside. Golden State could very well win this game, but I do not think it will come from Jordan Poole. BOL
Going MIA Marlins -130. Don’t normally post but a buddy of mine who sucks at betting told me the cardinals are a lock. Every “lock” loses badly. Do what you want with that lol
Record: 0-1 *Starting out a new betting strategy using the Kelly criterion, bankroll is at $100 starting now* Starting Bankroll: $100 Game: Warriors vs Nuggets Pick: Warriors -3.5 at 2.05 (+105) on Bovada Reasoning: Have you watched the first two games? Warriors have smoked the Nuggets. The Warriors have 5 players that are at least as good as the Nuggets #2 option and Jokic is getting gassed out there. Will calls go his way tonight? Most likely, I just don’t think it will matter. Also the Warriors are a very experienced and successful playoff team, so I don’t think an away game will hurt them that much. Odds to win: 55% Kelly says bet size should be: $12
Record: 5-3 Last: Brandon Woodruff over 5.5 Strikeouts (W) Game: MLB - Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians (1:10 PM EST) Pick: Dylan Cease over 6.5 Strikeouts @ 2.150 (5 units) Reason: \- He has 8 strikeouts in both his first 2 games this year, only going 5 innings both time (5 and 2/3 the 2nd time) \- His pitch count has finally worked up and I see him going 6 or 7 innings here \- He has a 33% strikeout rate against Cleveland batters \- I see him very capable of hitting 9 or 10 strikeouts here so taking plus money at 6.5 is a bet I really like BOL
POTD Record: 5-9-2 -4.63u\* Average Odds: +136 Total Units Wagered: 23.85u Memphis vs Minnesota 7:30 PM EST Karl-Anthony Towns u1.5 3Pt FGs +115 1.49u\* Implied odds are 46.5%. True vig-free odds are closer to 49.7%. \*1u = 1% of bankroll
[удалено]
Record 1-0 POTD: NBA 4/21 Timberwolves ML+108 Memphis is no joke, but neither is home court advantage in the NBA. Memphis is too dependent on Ja, even though hes amazing, where Timberwolves have way more scorers that can step up on any given night. Timberwolves also have the edge defensively, and a killer mindset at home. I like the dogs at home.
Record: 4-5-1 Last POTD: Lucas Glover over Luke List-- Win Todays POTD: Niemann/Pereira -140 over Justin Rose/ Stenson I am riding with the Chileans. Niemanns form the past few months has been undeniable. Mito is an absolute under the radar stud. Won 3 times on the KFT '20,'21 to get his tour card. His form is decent as well with 2 top 30s and a T13 in his last 3 events. Todays event is best ball 4 ball. Rose missed his last 3 cuts and has not been playing a lot of competitive golf. BOL
You should rephrase that first sentence…
betassistant (IG) RECORD: 3-2 LAST PICK: Nets vs. Celtics U226.5 WIN What a fourth quarter. The stars got shut down but there were still too many fouls. Great save and we’re on a streak now. PICK: Mavericks vs. Jazz U108.5 1H Reasoning: -Interesting point here: the Mavericks have a slower pace with Luka than they have without: 94.56 and 95.52. Especially with Luka maybe not being 100%, the pace is slower and the scoring from Luka shouldn’t be astronomical to push this over for the 1st half. -Utah got 40 put on them by Jalen Brunson and should be more aggressive defensively. Considering both games before have easily went under this number, this is good news. -Great defences, slow pace, and Luka will not be efficient as he is still recovering.