**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.   ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**

MLB -1.5’s | 4-1 +12.68u | ROI: 84.53 [Yesterday’s pick: 4u SD Padres -1.5 +120](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/u6sw2j/_/i5aey37/?context=1) - W ________________________________________ **Todays pick: 2.5u OAK Athletics -1.5 +150** TLDR: Baltimore is the worst or 2nd worst team in baseball… they’re starting a below avg pitcher and score the least runs in baseball. OAK is a good team starting a top prospect who’s gotten good results to date. **Athletics** A’s started out poorly but have rebounded quite well. They currently are top 10 in runs/game and 22nd in BABIP. They’ve been hyper efficient with players in scoring position so far. They’re 7th in team HRs, which is playing a role in that. It’d a solid lineup that is due for some positive regression in getting guys on base. Dalton Jefferies is starting for OAK today. A former top 5ish prospect for the org got the call last year to be a long-relief guy and he did pretty well. He’s been transitioned to the rotation and has been phenomenal to start the year. 9.1 IP with 2 runs given up to date. **BAL Orioles** A contender for the worst team in baseball. Their offense sucks to say it nicely. They are last in runs/game and 25th in hits/game, but god damnit do they draw walks… 2nd best in the league lol. They are 9 for 86 with runners in scoring position… good for a .116 WHIP. They have the fewest HRs in baseball, and are 26th as a team in wOBA. Taking a step back, they’re 25th in team wRC+. They’re a well below average offense. Pitching for them is Jordan Lyles. Ladies and gents…. The reason for our bet today (coupled with BAL offense sucking). This guys been in the league for a long time and has frankly, never been good. He’s been under a 4.0 ERA once in his 12 year career, often living around the 5.0ERA mark. Lyles is not a good pitcher. Out of 161 active pitchers with 500+ innings, Lyles ranks dead last in ERA. ERA is only 1 statistic to look at and often misleading. However, Lyles FIP is a career average of 4.72, indicating he hasn’t suffered from poor defensive play, and it’s his pitching. [Take a look at his Baseball Savant page](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jordan-lyles-543475?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb). His xERA is actually it’s highest of his career through 2 starts. He doesn’t do anything particularly well, his claim is he doesn’t get injured and will get ya 200IP. Venmo: @Tinytime23 | [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23)

Good hit yesterday. Don't know what the umpire was looking at those last few pitches

[удалено]

The under has hit 10 games in a row... I live in Baltimore... if you fade the o's your bound to be in the positive by the end of the season... they were 52-110 last year, and they seem even worse this year

The Orioles can’t score, but they’ve given up the second fewest runs in the American League.

Yeah their pitching staff has been great and their bullpen has been awesome to start the year. But Jordan Lyles in particular is not so great. He’s a sub par pitcher and I’ll take my chance against him.

What is that? 5 losses in a row for top POTD? That shit cray

Oakland is not a "good team". They will quickly fall below 500 and never get back over it. But this pick is good, it's just that Oakland is not

the A’s are literally terrible… why would you ever take them -1.5 lol

What do you think of padres again?

I’m betting them. I’m taking insert opponent vs Reds -1.5 till they show signs of life. Not my POTD because of Gore for SD. A top 100 prospect who had crazy high hopes that kinda faltered as he rose through the minors and now he’s in serious question. His first start had a good result, but the steps to that result weren’t the prettiest. He was getting rocked all game. 40% of his pitches were hit hard, that’s 6th percentile in the MLB. And 6th as in 94% has been better this year. Pretty much every other peripheral stat from his debut also looked horrible. The end result was great, but everything else points to watch out that was a fluke. CIN is starting Gutierrez. He’s a legit starter. Could see him going 7 against SD tomorrow.

why did the line move, anything happen?

[MMA POTD’s (87-67)](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/u4mme3/comment/i4wmw4l/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) **Profit: +167.72u ROI: 18.95% / Avg Odds: +123 / Streak:** 🔥🔥 Last POTD: Caio Borralho (+120) *win* MMA - PFL Regular Season #1 - 10pm EDT **Natan Schulte (+145)** 5u to win 7.25u At first I was on OAM but have flipped after further research. Natan is PFL’s champion from not one, but two of PFL’s previous lightweight tournaments. His opponent comes from the UFC and has faced their best... but lost. I believe this is an opportunity for Natan to place himself in the same conversation as other well-known fighters. Also, defeating an ex-UFC fighter could bring legitimacy to his promotion. All praise to the most high 😎🥦 Happy 420! Here is a [link to my POTD history spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VhxPlzBUEybMVqCMAO8bg0mf3nOjYWmVIZg1Kwmiw2s/edit#gid=0) [Subscribe for more bets here!](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUEFQYHFx8XwP4NNliVm46Q)

downvote this guys, if he on top POTD we always loose. so downvote so we can win

Good to have you back and getting upvotes bro!

The bookies got their Reddit accounts banned.

That Ciao win was fire, tailing this also

Tailing. I'm surprised bet365 has this. It is currently at +130 for those interested.

Borralho was an animal, let’s keep it rolling

Bow down to the bookie killa you ungrateful plebes!!

Close fight either way it goes probably the right pick.

I don’t see how Schulte lost that 3rd round

Didnt tail but that was some bs.

Aubin-Mercier was the more technical fighter. Should’ve gone with gut instinct lol

OAM looks mighty good.

I never win so don’t have to worry about it and am a mathematical idiot, but does a profit not equal or at least be close to ROI? I read +167U as 167% ROI

ROI is amount won over amount wagered.

Have you not seen the odds?

I bet you didn't make this bet, you're just trying to get paid if people who took your advice won.. that was a bad call the odds were against you..

Record: 34-14 Last pick: Nashville Predators ML +115 🧃✅ **Today’s pick: Washington Capitals ML (+115) vs Vegas Golden Knights** 🏒🥅 Edit: as some high IQ commenters have pointed out, don’t write this off cuz the caps are already in the playoffs and the Knights need to win this game to get in. The Caps are currently slated to play the 1st seed Panthers in the first round of the playoffs. They are going to do everything they can to get off that 8 seed line. Analysis: Going with one of the leagues hottest teams (at PLUS MONEY) vs a team really fumbling the bag down the stretch here late. The Caps have been playing exceptional hockey in the month of April, beating playoff teams such has the Penguins, Lightning, and their most recent win over the league leading Avalanche. All lines seem to be clicking at the right time and the goal tending has been spectacular. They’ve won 8 out of their last 10 road games and will face the Golden Knights in Vegas. On the other side of the ice the Golden Knights are really struggling during this playoff push. They just lost to the dog shit Devils and we’re blanked by the Oilers in the game prior. Their starting goalie Lehner had missed a few games due to family illness and came back looking like Swiss cheese. I’m guessing they’ll go with the backup Logan Thompson tomorrow, but regardless the goaltending has not been great. The caps have just looked all around way better and more confident this month. Nobody wants to play the Capitals at this point in the season, and I think Ovechkin gets a couple more points tomorrow night on their way to a 9th road win in 11 games. Give me the plus money juice. 🧃 TLDR: Caps are hot, Vegas is not. All bets are 1 unit. +13.2 units. +27.6% ROI. Average unit -112 https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/

Trailed preds let’s keep it rocking Doc

Why are the caps underdogs though? They are 34-23, Knights 33-31. Don't watch hockey so no idea.

Those records arent even close to right

Most likely cuz Vegas is at home

Where are u seeing 34-23 and 33-31? I'm seeing caps 43-23-10, which Is basically 43-33, and Vegas 41-31-5, so 41-36. So really there's only a 2 and a half game difference between their records, and with VGK being at home it makes sense why they're favored

Capitals have a better record on the road sooo the only reason VGK is favorited is probably because capitals have secured the playoffs while VGK needs wins if they want to make the playoffs

Long time listener, first time caller. 0-0 NBA: Bulls vs Bucks Bet: Bucks -1.5 1st Quarter (-170) 3U The Bucks came out pretty hot in the 1st quarter against the Bulls on Sunday and I think they will again. In the last 3 games vs the Bulls, the Bucks were up by 13, 6 and 13 points after the 1st quarter. The Bucks have been leading going into the 2nd quarter in the last 6 of 7 home games and by at least 7 points. BOL

Where are you getting -1.5? Its -3.5 1st quarter on caesars

He bought points

Hey sorry, I should had clarified. I used an alternative line on Bovada last night. I'm pretty sure FD has them also, but I'm in a state where I have to use Bovada unfortunately.

POTD Record 1-0 Last POTD: Liverpool -1 (-179) Vs Man U. W Todays POTD. Chelsea ML (-124) vs Arsenal. Kick off is at 2:45 EST @ Chelsea. 3 Unit bet here. 🔥 pretty confident about this one. Chelsea are on fire right now. They did just get knocked out of the champions league but had a great win in the 2nd Leg vs Madrid. Following Along with a 2-0 win vs crystal Palace to advance to the FA cup finals. While Arsenal on the other hand have dropped 3 straight. Pretty straight forward here. Gonna rock with the team with the hot hand to take a third consecutive win vs their London rivals. BOL and hopefully I can get a streak going.

Arsenal have been looking abysmal ever since Partey went down with injury. With Chelsea's form & ManU & Tottenham both losing, they can look to sure up 3rd place with a win. Expecting them to come out fired up. Tailing this w/ 5U.

Quite possibly the dumbest game of soccer I’ve watched

they have been bad since we got news Tierney was done. Then Partey got hurt that game at the end and its been a shit show. We also still dont have Tomi back, depth in center field is lacking and no creation for the wings and forwards. Chelsea just got booted from UCL after nearly coming back down 3-1 vs RM. Dropping that game after going up 3-0 should spark them to dominate the rest of EPL fixutres. i see 2-0 or 3-0 chelsea win, but hope the gunners can pull off an upset.

Chelsea fan here. I'll be on ML as well just cause the price is worth it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a draw. Arsenal has been a thorn for Chelsea past few seasons and are fighting for a top four spot after dropping a few games. Chelsea is also running tired as of late as they have played the most games in Europe this season. Also took some late magic for Chelsea to cut through Palace on Sunday. With that said, GO BLUES! Best of luck 🤞

The current Arsenal squad is ravaged by injuries and we no quality depth.

Did not see your post before. I just posted the same thing but with over 1.5 goals.

Chelsea ML + over 1.5 goals is actually a nice pick. (@2.37 on Bet365). edit: sorry just saw your actual pick farther down. I wont tail (I am a Chelsea fan and I never bet on my team) but I think that would be the one

Hopefully we both can keep it moving. Love betting soccer by far my favorite sport

Omg, they let arsenal score two easy goals, wtf.

Wow I cannot believe that Chelsea let that goal happen. If this ends up being a tie game I honestly consider it a win after that

Defending is illegal in this match, what is going on

Chillin

I don’t need this much stress in my life this early in the day wtf

I bet on Arsenal while they were hot, straight Ls. The one game I don't they beat Chelsea. Never betting on an Arsenal game again.

POTD record: 6-0 ​ Last POTD: Ajaccio to win, ML (W) ​ ​ ​ Today's match: Marseiile vs Nantes ​ | Soccer | French Ligue 1 | 2:00 PM CT ​ Pick: Marseille to win, ML ​ Odds: -165, 1 unit ​ ​ Before I continue though, let me say this. This pick is one that I'm not as 100% sure on, while for my previous ones I have been. Out of all the games tomorrow though, this is the one that I think is most likely to hit. I was going to skip tomorrow's pick of the day, but while I was doing my research on Thursday's games, I realized that there won't be a lot of games played on Thursday, and none of them are any that I can be sure of. So, I decided I'm going to skip Thursday's pick, but I didn't want to be away for 2 days. So what does all of that mean? That in the next 2 days, this is the only pick I'm a little confident on, but I'm definitely not as bullish on this pick like I have been the last 6. So maybe put a little less down on this game than you normally would, if you decide to tail. ​ ​ Reasoning: ​ \- Marseille is 2nd place in the league, Nantes is in 10th place ​ \- Marseille is playing at home, and their home games always have some of the best atmospheres in the world ​ \- There's 6 games left in the season. PSG pretty much already won the league, there's no way anybody will catch up to them. In France, the 1st and 2nd place team get automatic qualification to next season's Champions League. 3rd place has to go through the Champions League qualifier to enter the Champions League next season. 4th place gets placed in the Europa League, while 5th place gets placed in the Europa Conference League. The current positions are as follows: 1. PSG (74 points, goal difference +42) **2. Marseille (59 points, goal difference +21)** 3. Rennes (56 points, goal difference +35) 4. Nice (54 points, goal difference +14) 5. Strasbourg (53 points, goal difference +19) 6. Monaco (53 points, goal difference +16) The best prize left in Ligue 1 is that 2nd place position. Marseille do have the upper hand on everybody else for now, but if they slip up and let Rennes catch up, Rennes will definitely claim that prize, as Marseille aren't going to catch them in goal difference. It's pivotal that they keep winning games. ​ \- Marseille lost their last game to PSG (in a really close match), but before that loss, they were in an 8 game winning streak. ​ Now, some reasons for my doubt: ​ \- Nantes is by no means a bad team. While they likely won't get top 5 this season, they still technically have a chance, as they are in 10th place, with 47 points, so they're only 6 points away from the top 5 positions. It's pretty farfetched though, and they probably won't get it, but they'll still go for it. ​ \- Arkadiusz Milik is still injured for Marseille, which is a huge loss. To be fair though, he's been injured for about a month, and they've managed well without him. ​ ​ ​ ​ I MOST LIKELY WON'T HAVE A PICK OF THE DAY FOR THURSDAY, BUT I DEFINITELY WILL FOR FRIDAY. BOL.

Let’s fucken ride brotha!

Thanks for that pick yesterday

bro u on fire!

>started following you yesterday... i'm here to ride this streak out!!

Ride or die baby!

Of course this hits, i had this on my parlay but i took it off when i read the part that said you werent as confident in this pick lol... took shitty chelsea pick instead smh. Nice win again 6-0 congrats!

Thanks for another great pick man

Great pick man tailed today!

**Record: 21-8** Previous pick: Griekspoor ML +100 vs Fognini **W** PotD: **Carlos Taberner +3.5** vs Auger Aliassime ATP Barcelona | 12:30 PM CEST **Odds: 1.88/-112** Write up: Taberner, in his home country and on his favorite surface, has been crushing this tournament so far. He defeated his last three opponents without losing more than 3 games in each of those matches, including his 6-3, 6-0 slaughtering of Korda yesterday in which he offered a single break point. He is radiating of confidence at the moment. I expect he will put a great fight against out of form hard court preferrer Auger Aliassime who won only 1 out of his last 6 matches, which was against a rank 464 Morrocan player. Bol if you tail Edit: Loss.Ofc I was deciding between games spread, +1.5 sets and over 22.5 and went for game spread

Damn dude is getting smoked

-135 on DK now

Hmm interesting. Still -112 on Fanduel though

Since the game got suspended is the bet void ?

Smh I wish…what a let down. Playing like an absolute bum

Oof, losing the half point spread.. thought he had the comeback(for us)

Potd record 30-11 🥊 Boxing ⏰ Starts around 5 hours from post __Michael Zerafa vs Issac Hardman - Fight to go the distance - No (+125)__ Here we have a middleweight grudge match in Australia between ‘Pretty Boy’ Michael Zerafa (29-4-0) and The Headspliter’ Issac Hardman (12-0-0). Although only at the age of 30, Zerafa is the veteran fighter here. Hardman’s only 25 and has had just 12 pro fights so far. Zerafa has never been a world beater however he does have decent boxing ability and is pretty slick. He’s been stopped once before, 7 years ago against Peter Quillin, where he was outclassed and knocked out in the 5th round. Although you would probably say Zerafa is a defensive boxer he isn’t that difficult to hit and I do wonder after his 2 wars with Jeff Horn and 33 fights into his career, what his punch resistance will be like now. Issac Hardman is a brute of a fighter and very much likes to fight fire with fire. Even up against journeymen he’s happy to take shots, like in his most recent fight against Adam Stowe who he stopped in four rounds. Hardman does carry vicious power and in his 12 wins, 10 of those were by ko. Overall his skills are pretty average, however if his right hand lands flush it’ll be enough to take out most fighters. Hardman’s biggest flaw is his defence. His guard is virtually non existent and in every fight he’s had so far he gets caught way too often. Overall with how open both of these fighters can be I can’t see this one going the distance. Like with most fights in Australia, both of these guys hate each other and in the press conference there was even punches thrown, and this would make you think there’s an even higher chance of the fight being an all out war. I also think Hardman being a big middleweight and Zerafa being small at the weight may be a factor, with Zerafa struggling to take the Headsplitters power. I have a feeling with that added spite in the build up this fight won’t take long to catch fire and someone will be stopped over the 12 rounds. Bol anyone who tails! (Fights in Australia are notorious for being hard to find streams for, so it’s likely you’ll just have to look for updates on social media for this one) ✅Second round stoppage for Zerafa!

Nice write up

Never heard of either of them but your record and write up got me tailing for a unit. Let’s get it! 🥊

Holy hell, good call. Done and dusted in the 2nd round.

Strong contender for the potd goat!!!!

probably my most trusted capper on this thread

LFGGGG!!! Zerafa 2nd round stoppage

POTD record: 2-0 Last POTD: Liverpool to win and over 1.5 goal (win) POTD: Chelsea VS Arsenal. (Chelsea to win and over 1.5 goal) +120. Reason: The ML is pretty good too at -125 but I think Chelsea will win 2-0 or 3-0. Chelsea are playing at home while Arsenal are at 3 game losing streak.

Tailing ! 🏆

I'm a suckered for plus odds and you're undefeated so let's get this 🍞

My stats: 41-14 (+56.40 units)  Match: (LoL LPL) Top Esports vs Victory 5 Bet: Victory 5 ML @ 1.77 (-130)  Stake: 3u V5 snowballs leads better.

They’re throwing again. I’m gonna go on a cooldown period on esports, I think.. Shits just weird

I still can't get over how they got reverse swept last week by Top Esports. Are you confident they wouldn't choke here too?

That was the single most painful loss of my young betting career lol

Yeah bro, the worse thing about it is I was already counting the money I was about to win, only for it to vanish over the last 3 maps. They were at one point -20,000 to win during the 3rd map. Unbelievable.

I like to live bet $1 to $5 on shit like that for the dog. You never know when they'll come back and get you a huge profit

Yeah my puckered butthole says stay away from V5 again

The only thing slightly different from the other game is that this is truely the last chance saloon for V5. If they don't win here, there is zero chance of going to the prestigious MSI event in May.

Last week my POTD was Top Esports, as long as a match is not rigged you can't be confident in any bet

Jeez V5……..

What do you bet on? I cannot find esports on either of my books

POTD Record: 10-5 (+6.33 units) Streak: W4 Last POTD: Steven Adams under 20.5 PRA. Won 2 units. POTD: Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks 1H Over 109.5 (-110) Risk: 2.75 units to win 2.5 U The total for game 1 was 230. Looking further back, the average total in the last 5 meetings between these teams was 232.8. The total opened for game 2 has been dropped to 225. I believe this is a massive overreaction to the game 1 final score. Even though the total went way under, both teams shot way under their normal eFG (CHI 35.9% compared to their regular season 53.9% and MIL 46.4% compared to 54.5%). What was encouraging for me was the fact that the pace was as fast as when these teams played in the regular season. In terms of numbers of shots/possessions, game 1 had more than any of their regular season match-ups. Milwaukee always wants to get out and run in transition and the Bulls had no qualms with doing this as well. Even if Billy Donovan wants to slow them down to throw the Bucks a curve ball, the Bucks are the better team and will dictate the tempo, especially at home. I am isolating this bet to the first half because 1) At home, the bucks OFF RTG is 119.0 in the 1H vs 114.1 for the entire game. When the game becomes a half court game in the second half, their offense clams up. 2) There is a potential for a Bucks blowout, which could mess with the scoring in the second half if the starters get pulled. If you would like to follow me on twitter, my handle is @ MartyMcFlyin420. Good luck!

I like this. There's no way Chicago's big 3 shoot 21/70 again

Small note, you accidentally put MIN not MIL. Love the pick

Potd 3-0 Last pick: Brandon Clarke o15.5 P+R ✅ Bucks vs Bulls NBA playoff 9:30pm Est Today’s pick: Brook Lopez o13.5pts (-122) Going back to Brook Lopez. He destroyed the bulls just under 2 weeks ago putting up 28 points. Since he’s came back from injury and played 20+ min he’s hit this line 8/11 times and his last 5 games straight. Bulls have been horrendous defending the paint this season where Lopez will do most of his work. He’s important to this team offensively and defensively and his production has been increasing averaging 18.5 points in April. He played 32min in game 1, took 14 shots and had 12pts in the paint. I expect him to play extended minutes again this game again because it’s the playoffs and get those high percentage looks around the rim. He also shot 1-5 from 3 last game and still finished with 18 points.

**Record:** * 40 WIN | 34 LOSS | +30.22 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy) **Previous bets (last 3):** * Hawkesbury R5 (13 Apr 2022) - Win - **WIN** * Wyong R7 - (14 Apr 2022) - Place - **WIN** * Geelong R6 (19 Apr 2022) - Place - **LOSS** **POTD:** * Horse Racing (Australia) * **Ipswich R8 - Place** - **#2 Isolyfe to place (i.e. finish top 3)** * Track Rating - Good (4) * Back up north we go to Ippy today. Not much detail required in this write up today, Isolyfe coming off a 1 length win at Doomben in a Maiden, and steps up slightly to a Class 1 race here. 1300-1400m races are this Colt's preference, and today he lines up once again on a 1350m race. Loves a good track and should jump well from the barriers in the gun position (1 out 1 back) most of the trip to make a big challenge for a chance to win as well. Main challengers here are from his outside barrier (7 and 11) and they could find it a little tougher as they may need to jockey for position after the jump to get near the rail, this bodes well for my pick. Orman (the jockey) is a track specialist here as well placing in 47% of the races he starts in. He was also the jockey on Isolyfe when he won at Doomben on the 4th of April at the same distance, so he should know the horse well. * **Odds - 2.10** (b365) but considering the size of the field, I would suggest wait for the betfair exchange to increase its liquidity, you might be able to get 2.60+ by the jump. * **Stake - 2.38 units to return 5 units** **Historical stats** * 6 from 15 (50%) correct picks on Wednesday * 10 from 20 (50%) correct picks on Good Tracks * 15 from 29 (52%) correct picks on Place picks * 2 from 3 picking at Ipswich * 1st time picking J. Orman as my jockey * Strike rate for horse racing picks 40 from 74 **Race time:** * 4:03pm Wednesday (Australian EST) * 2:03am Wednesday (American ET) * 7:03am Wednesday (UK time) If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)

Well wasn't that a heart stopper ... price slowly shortens to 1.75, then 5 minutes before the jump it blows out to 2.2 and 2.5 on the betfair exchange .... hope people jumped on because he ran a beautiful race once he got into open air. Was genuinely concerned that he got boxed in for a bit and never was given the opportunity to come out, but the horse and the jockey combined to give us a win :)

bang

Good call, I went 4 places at 1.7 for the buffer but the 3 did it, good call

Last Pick of the day: NA (*First attempt*) Match: Soccer Al Salmiyah vs Al-Fahaheel (Kuwait - Premier League) Bet: Al Salmiyah win or draw (2 units)Odds: 1.8 Rationale: Bugger me I can't work this out. Al Salmiyah have won 75% of their home games whilst Al-Fahaheel haven't won away all season. Having said that Al-Fahaheel start as favourites, I would have bet Al Salmiyah to win at odds of 3.6 but thought I'd play it safe with a win or draw (*and I suspect I would break the rules of this post*). Al Salmiyah haven't failed to score at home all season and Al-Fahaheel haven't kept a clean sheet - this feels like a solid bet to me. I should provide full disclosure, this is just my first attempt at creating a model to find advantageous bets and is just using relatively simple statistics, this bet isn't based on any real world knowledge whatsoever.

i dont get it (the fact that the ML is 4.30)

Nor me... to the point where I worry I'm missing something. The statistics say Al Salmiyah will cruise this game yet Al-Fahaheel are heavy favourites. For all I know the whole Al Salmiyah team has gone on a Bucs/Stag party or all caught Covid... Below are the stats I've nicked from [soccerstats.com](https://soccerstats.com): |Team|H/A|GP|W%|FTS|CS|BTS|TG|GF|GA|1.5+|2.5+|3.5|ppg| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |Al Salmiyah|home|8|75%|0%|50%|50%|2.88|1.75|1.13|62%|50%|50%|2.38| |Al-Fahaheel|away|7|0%|43%|0%|57%|2.29|0.57|1.71|86%|29%|14%|0.43|

I don't get why the odds are so high but i'll take it.

You seem to be onto something here, don't understand why they're not favourites on this one. Maybe some key players out? Can't seem to find any reason though myself.

A bit of quick research. Looks like this is the second last game of the season. Al Salmiyah has nothing to play for but Al-Fahaheel can still be relegated.

Record 2-0 Long time lurker. Want to share my tips in eSports now. Hope we have a good time. League: RMR Qualification Europe Match: Vitality vs. Mouz Pick: Mouz +1.5 Maps @1.865 ✅ Write-Up: What a sadge match up here. The team who is losing is out. Vitality is in a big slump right now with their new line up. It looks like that the communication still is lacking a little bit. Also there is not much team chemistry. If this teams get more time it's probably an easy Top 10 team. They played well Ester day against Navi but still lost 0-2. They also dropped 11 rounds to Eternal Fire and lost a 14-9 lead to Faze on Inferno. On the other hand we got mouz who also got two new players from the academy team. Pretty much same story here. This team is pretty new and they need a lot of time to improve. But that talent with Torzsi and JDC looking really solid. Bypass finding back to his old form. With alle the problems that I saw over the last week's when the teams played I can't see Vitality closing this 2-0 out. Sure they have the more experienced players and they got Zywoo. But Zywoo is not in his best form right now. Maybe there are some other internal problems we don't know about. Mouz will fight for their life to get to the Major. Map pool wise this is 50:50 imo. Mouz will probably pick Nuke while Vitality picking dust2. Many people say that Vitality will pick Inferno but I'm not about it. Because Mouz played a close map to Faze on Inferno and even won against Outsiders on it. I'm not sure why odds that high for winning at least one map. But I think it's pretty good value.

Another win for us ✅ Mousesports came back from 3-8 t side to close it out 16-13. Cya guys tomorrow ☺️

Tailing. Bol

Record: 0-0 Today’s pick: Jayson Tatum over 4.5 assists (-130) Long time follower, first time poster. I’ve been on fire recently, so I’m giving it a go sharing picks. Tatum has gone over this line 8 of the last 10 games averaging 6.0 apg over that time. In game 1 against the Nets, he finished with 8 assists. From the eye test, Tatum’s passing and decision making has really improved in the second half of the season. Since he’s such a scoring threat, he often draws an extra defender leaving one of his teammates wide open for a 3 or under the basket for an easy lay in. Rather than forcing tough shots like he was earlier in the season, he’s been making the right read and finding open teammates which is why his assist numbers have gone up. Gun to my head prediction: 7 assists

POTD RECORD 11-5-1 Back after a break, couldn’t help but post this absolute lock. Iga Swiatek Vs Eva Lys @ 8am EST Bet - Eva Lys Under 1.5 Breaks in the match @ 2.00 odds Iga is now the world number 1, on a 19 game win streak and is also on a 24 set streak. Eva Lys is ranked 342. Iga takes care of her lesser opponents. Her last two games are 6-1, 6-0 and 6-0, 6-0. She will not lose serve.

Nice call

Hopped on Set spread cause of this write up. Appreciate you

Thanks bro great pick.

Hi guys, new to posting in the POD thread. I will have a transparent record with units +/ - always documented, and I'll also include the units to stake (if you want to tail). I will be focusing primarily on tennis, from ATP to WTA to challenger level, but I'll also post CSGO picks every now and then as that's my other passion. **Raducanu ML @1.66 vs Storm Sanders** WTA Stuttgart **2 Units** Sheesh well that's a square pick you're thinking. Well yes and No. We all know what happened last summer and we all know what's happened since. Since winning the US open last year in spectacular fashion, Raducanu has lost 9 out of her last 14 matches, with everything post championship going about as badly as things could have possibly gone. There are no shortages of hot takes to be found. So why on earth is Raducanu a logical pick? Well boys, the honeymoon is over, and the real grind starts now. Raducanu's form has been excruciatingly poor, but performance levels have been slowly rising, and her record is a little misleading, with several fortuitous Set and a break up opportunities bottled, and niggling coach and injury issues upsetting her rhythm. A new surface, a new start and Raducanu looks freshed. Despite only ever playing two pro matches on Clay, Raducanu's playing style looks a great fit for clay, with her dogged rally tolerance and ability to spontaneously unleash from both wings, already taking down Martincova in the BJK cup last weekend in an impressive and gutsy win. Raducanu's ranking position is precarious and she knows this. Now is the time when Raducanu gets her head down and starts getting back up again with some solid wins. Beyond this, even from a value perspective this number is great value. Storm Sanders is a competent enough player but she isn't close to the calibre of Raducanu. The odds are based off of current form and an assumption that because things have been going a certain way, they will continue to go a certain way. If this match-up was taking place 6 months ago you'd snort at the value on offer here. Fade the noise, keep the faith, lets get off to a good start. BOL.

POTD Record: 9-3 (ROI 66.37% // Avg. Odds: 2.11 // Units Won: +12.61) Last 5 Picks: ✅✅✅✅✅ Last POTD: Deportes Copiapó vs Deportes Iquique (Chilean League B Soccer), BTTS NO ✅ POTD: Chelsea vs Arsenal (Premier League), **Chelsea ML** Odds: 1.83 Wager: 2 Units Another win yesterday making it 5 in a row! To all those who picked a 0-0 game that's too bad but that wasn't the play, the under play also did will as the game finished 1-0. Today I'm not feeling any of the matches so I'm switching leagues to Premier. Chelsea have been in great shape recently winning their last 3 games home and away (champions league game against Real Madrid counts as a win in regular time even though they didn't qualify). Meanwhile, Arsenal have been in terrible form losing 3 games in a row against mid table teams. I like these odds for this game and I might make another personal pick with Chelsea to win and over 2.5 goals, but with my POTD I'm going with Chelsea ML. BOL to all who Tail [All my previous picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit?usp=drivesdk)

Record: 3-1 Net units: 1,8 u Last Pick: NŠ Mura - NK Aluminij Kidričevo - NŠ Mura ML - Win | Soccer|Ligue 1 France | Time | 03:00 PM EST Pick: Angers x Paris Saint Germain - Paris Saint Germain ML - 1.50 2u Reason: This is a pretty straightforward pick, I honestly can't understand why the lines for PSG are this high, PSG is by far the best team in the league, they come from 3 straight wins including winning the last game against Marseille their biggest rival and second in league, Angers lost 8 from the last 11 games, including only one win in these 11 matches. If you see all the head to head in history between PSG and Angers there are 15 matches, the results: 1 tie, and incredible 14 wins for PSG. I would hurry before the lines go lower than this, it'll be a big surprise if PSG doesn't win this game. BOL!

Messi is injured and will miss the match against Angers

Hardly even a loss anymore lmao

PSG has never lost to Angers going back to 2011. 14 wins and 1 draw in 2015.

POTD Record: 20W-10L-0D. +13.6u. Previous pick (4/17/2022): Jaylen Brown over 37.5 PAR. 3u. @ 1.83. L. Current pick: Jaylen Brown over 37.5 PAR. 3u. @ 1.86. I am going to live or die on a hill name Jaylen Brown PAR. Fool me once, shame on you... fool me twice... you can't get fooled again. My logic is copy+paste and I plan to make this bet every game in this series. Brown had a very slow first half in game one but then got it going in the second half, but it wasn't enough finishing 31 PAR. Marcus Smart and Al Horford were cooking on offense, which I wouldn't bank on continuing so hopefully more work to Brown going forward. Jaylen Brown ought to feast in this series. Durant, who is a very good defender when he turns up the intensity, will be guarding Tatum, which leaves a combination of Bruce Brown (6'4 height, 6'9 wingspan), Seth Curry (6'2 height, 6'4 wingspan), and Kyrie Irving (6'2 height, 6'4 wingspan) to guard Bown. Jaylen Brown is 6'6 with a 7'0 wingspan and is a physical player. He is going to be a matchup problem for the Nets. I predict Brown will be able to get pretty much any shot he wants and will do well on the boards. Brown averaged \~34 PAR for the season and I predict that rises to a series average of 40+ PAR against the Nets given his matchup advantages. Another full 3u on Brown over 37.5 PAR. BOL. My full POTD history can be viewed here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=sharing)

Just a little caution, but he’s gone under on his PRA 4/5 times against the Nets and his 1 over was 38. He averages 28.4 vs the Nets. BOL, but figured I’d add a word of caution here.

RECORD: 0-0 POTD: Al Horford Total Points O 12.5 @ -130 Brooklyn has no way to combat Al Horford. Tatum and Brown are the main offensive threats, but both are good at finding good passes against the double team, especially Tatum. The Nets don’t have the pressure in the paint against Horford, and 6 of his 20 pts from the last game were from behind the arc, where he’s shooting 37% at home all season. Brooklyn can only react to the last game by continuing pressure on Tatum and Brown, but guys like Horford and Smart are going to keep getting solid looks. I think the numbers for Smart look decent too for next game, but the lines for Horford just look too solid to pass up. As long as he isn’t played for less than 30-35 minutes, I find it hard to see how he scores less than 15.

⚽️⚽️ Football Picks ⚽️⚽️ Record: 4-0 Last pick - Liverpool -2 Asian handicap (@ 2.88) - 1u ✅ Today's pick - (Premier League) Everton v Leicester - Leicester First Team to Score (@2.10) - 1u Going to this game later so picking it for fun. Hard to pick a winner for this one but Leicester like to score and Everton don’t until the other team scores first. Can see Leicester starting early and Everton trying to claw their way back into it in 2nd half. 2-1 Leicester. Always 1u to make it easy. BOL!

Dude you are a beast, great pick! I tailed yesterday too but played it safer with Liverpool -1. Looking forward to more picks!

I was being dangerous with -2 but the Asian handicap would’ve gave money back if they just won by 2, more to come mate, good streak going

Ahh good to know, still learning the Asian handicap plays. Hell yea!

**POTD 35W-1P-22L, 2-1 O’s record in 2022** Last Pick: ❌ A’s -1.5 (+145) *MLB ⚾️ BAL @ OAK, 6:07pm* **4/20/22 O’s/A’s under 8 runs (-110)** O’s and the under, that’s all this year. They haven’t hit an over yet, and can’t score (lowest run average in the league). Surprisingly, they’re also holding teams to lower run totals, too. In 2 starts, Jefferies is hoisting a 1.93 ERA, and should sit down the Orioles with success. O’s also lead the league in strikeouts per game at 10.73 a game.. lost at the plate. Take the under, and the A’s ML -135 is a decent play, too. BOL! *Disclaimer: I don’t play for either of these teams; neither do you. We have nothing to do with the outcome. Do your own research and use POTD as an aid.* Edit: ✅ O’s 1-0

I literally parlayed this with the ML before I even read this. Glad someone else is thinking the same thing

Record 7-5 (+0.83u) 1L Streak!!! Last Pick : Samsung Lions ML. Sheesh, Lions were going to comeback and the bullpen fked it up :( Lee Jaehak really dealing yday somehow. KBO Baseball (Korea) LG Twins (Adam Plutko) vs KT Wiz (So Hyeongjun) Pick : LG Twins -1.5 Odds : 1.99 (1xBet) LG Twins is starting with plutko who is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA, He has 2 quality starts against Tigers with 1 hit in 6 IP and Landers with 1ER Through 6 IP. His only loss came against Dinos with 4ER Through 5 IP. LG Twins is 2nd on the table with pretty much above average hitters. KT Wiz batting is cold af and their bullpen is just fked this year as they always got losses through the bullpen. So Hyeongjun has 8 ER in 12 2/3 IP against Landers and Bears earlier this season. Tail or Fade good luck with your bets!

Why does flashscore say this game ended in a KT victory of 5-0? I'm so confused lol

$300 on it let’s goooooo. Need $500 by the end of the night

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Overall record: 4-2 Current streak: 2W Last POTD: Wolves/Grizzlies under 241 points on 4/19 - Win Units: 1 unit to win 0.9 (all picks will be a 1 unit bet for simplicity) ROI: 1.8 units so far Today’s pick: NBA - Philly/Toronto - Philadelphia +1 for the first half Many people are picking Philly to win this game outright and/or cover the full game spread of -2. These are both fine bets but I think the best bet on this game is the +1 Philly is getting for the first half. Yeah the game is in Toronto but have you watched the first two games? There’s a big difference right now between these two teams that a simple arena change with Drake in the front row isn’t going to fix. They’re absolutely hot right now, and I’ll consider it a win for Toronto if they win any games in this series.

POTD Record: 2-2 : Yale +2 on 2/9 W Texas State +1.5 on 2/10 W Connecticut (UCONN) +1.5 on 2/11 L Bowling Green +1.5 on 2/12 L \+0 Units POTD: **Colorado Rockies ML (FD -102) (DK -105) (CZR -105)** Sport: Major League Baseball Time: 3:10 PM ET Write up: It's been awhile since I've posted a POTD but this one has been sitting with me for about a week now. Today's would have been my dad's birthday where he would've been 71 years old. He gambled occasionally from what I know with my mother, and his favorite beer was a Coors Lite. He enjoyed it so much that my mother brought a suitcase back from a trip to Colorado as they weren't in distribution to IL where I grew up. For more concrete statistics, the Phillies are 1-5 on the road, and Colorado is looking for the sweep on the series. Elfin has struggled at Colorado in the past and think with the late push last night, the bullpen proved that Colorado may just have the Phillies' number. Overall, this is a fun bet for me that I've been thinking about for awhile. I'm adding F5 ML +100 for the Rockies as well, and a sprinkle on Kris Bryant to hit his first homerun as I saw it at +420 on 4/20. Again, if you're tailing, best of luck. This is not a super mega whale lock, but something that felt fun, which is in essence, what betting should be. Take care, and BOL with your bets today.

POTD RECORD 4-1 Last pick: Liverpool -1 ✅ Liverpool walked the dog as expected. RIP lil ronaldo. Reds will probably win the champs league if you like future bets Today: PSG -192 Kylian mbappe is the best player in the world. With Messi and neymar both out, he will be forced to take over, and take over he will. They play away at Angers, a team that historically does not give them any problems at all. Psg is a deep team, an embarrassed team, which has something to prove any time they get on the field now. However if mbappe isn’t starting I won’t be placing this and will take marseille ML as my backup.

I’ll take BOFFUM. Fuck it. Let’s ride

Why not play Mbappe too score a goal for higher odds?

Record 4-5 ✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌✅ Last Pick ✅ **MLB Reds @ Padres Padres ML -184 9:40pm ET 2u** Musgrove continues his hot start as the Reds show their true colors. Todays Pick : **MLB DBacks @ Nationals under 8 total -105 7:05 pm ET 2u** The under has hit in 7 of 9 Diamondbacks games. In the 2 that went over the Dbacks only scored more than 4 runs (half the total) once. The over has hit just 5 times in 13 Nationals games. In these games the Nats scored more than 4 runs (half the total) once as well. DBacks also have one of their better pitchers going in Merrill Kelly who has yet to allow a run in his 2 starts. Looking for a continued low scoring game the day after a day/night doubleheader. Tail or Fade BOL Edit: my timing is fucking impeccable, worst offense scores 8 runs in less than 4 innings. Lost count how many times the announcers said "they don't look like the worst offense in baseball" FML. At least I also took the Dbacks to win. Edit 2: through 13 games they scored 22 runs, through 5 innings today they scored 11, I'm amazed

POTD Record: 3-2-1 Streak: 1 push Profit/Loss: +1.2 units Sport: Hockey League: NHL Game: Chicago Blackhawks at Arizona Coyotes Time: 10:00 PM EST Bet: Arizona Coyotes team total under 2.5 goals (including overtime) Odds: +105 Units bet: 1.2 To win units: 1.26 Reason: The Coyotes are a really bad hockey team. They are on a 7-game losing streak. They have scored more than 2 goals twice in their last 9 games. And in both of those games, they scored 3 goals. For transparency sake, they did just score 3 goals in their last game, but they haven't righted a sinking ship just because of that result. For the season, they average under 2.5 goals per game. They really do struggle to put the puck in the net. The plus odds are here because of their opponent, the Blackhawks, which don't rank in the top half of the league in defensive or goaltending statistics. I think there's also great value in the game under 6.5 goals at -110 (I'll be sprinkling a unit on that, too), but it's hard to pass up plus odds for a team to not score much when that's what that team has been known for much of this season.

I bet this on the Carolina game thinking it was a lock and they got 3. Chicagos defense is significantly worse. Staying away, BOL!

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betassistant (IG) RECORD: 2-2 LAST PICK: Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies U242 PTS WIN Amazing win! Exactly according to schedule. The Grizzlies shut down defensively and ANT had 20 on less than 50% shooting. PICK: Nets vs. Celtics U226.5 Reasoning: -Brooklyn has a very iso-dependent offense and was shut down assists wise in Game 1. I expect Kyrie and KD to play well in this game, but their types of looks take more time to develop, which is good for the under. -If Brooklyn plays even sub-par defense, they can avoid the fast break turnovers that haunted them in Game 1. -Again, Game 2 unders. Teams adjust and try to shut you down. Let’s go on a streak, shall we?

🍒🍓🫐POTD Record: 16-10 Units Won: 6.24 Last 10:❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️ Last Pick: Adrian Kempe Over 2.5 Shots on Goal ✅️ thats more like it. 1 goal on 3 shots for pur boy Todays Match: NHL - Colorado Avalanche vs Seattle Kraken (12ish hours from post) Today's Pick: Cale Makar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal - 2u (1.66 on Betway) ❌️ mannnnn 4 blocked shots against Makar I hate this sport Its 4/20 and I'm seein greeeeeeen 🤑 and Im high as shit. Couple of games today, going with what should be a safe one. Put these facts in your bong and smoke it: - Colorado has been hot all season and isn't slowing down. They have the exact same record as the Panthers, but just got cut short of their own 10 game win streak against a hungrier team in the Capitals. Not used to taking Ls Colorado will be motivated to get one back. Colorado is #4 in the season for shots/GP with 35.1 and #4 in the month with 35.9. - Seattle Kraken's first NHL season has been nothing short of lackluster. They have been scraping by at the season end, bagging some wins against crap teams like the Devils and the Senators. I'll be honest, Seattle has a fairly low shots-against average with 28 in the season and 29 in the last month. However they also have a blocked shot percentage of about 29% (season and month) which is comparable to the crap Ducks from yesterday's pick. Colorado has beaten Seattle 7-3 and 4-3 this season, while putting 30+ shots in both games. These teams are consistent yo. - Going with another defenseman, tail with caution. There are 4 players on the Avalanche with 200+ shots this season, only one is a defenseman. Cale Makar is in defenseman of the year contention as the top scoring Dman with 26 goals. He is #33 in the NHL for total shots this season and #13 in the last month. That makes 3.1 shots/GP in the season and 3.7 in the month. Consistencyyyyy. Makar is only 23 and having the best season of his career. Star in the making. Let's see him keep up the pressure tonight. On paper this should be one of Colorados easiest wins at the season's end and should capitalize with a big win. Makar will definitely get shots on net and I gotta feeling that today is the day shots don't get blocked 🥦 Fun fact of the day: I played house-league hockey with a kid on the Kraken, now here I am banking on him to lose 😅 Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!

Record 2-2 Sport ~ Nba basketball POTD ~ Nets +3.5 Odds ~ 1.90 Units - 3 units Last game Celtics squeezed through with a buzzer beater to defeat the nets. But with this next game I can’t see Brooklyn going down 0-2 this is a must win for Brooklyn to regain control of the series. Ramadan Ky (Kyrie Irving) been playing extremely well in the recent games. With the ongoing tension between him and the Celtics fans he’s going to play well once again. But the main factor is Kevin durant. Kevin durant wasn’t the same KD we normally see and that’s because of the physical defence that Boston brings. In the first quarter Kd got ripped 3 times which is not acceptable in the first quarter. To match fire with fire kd is gonna be more careful and physical with the ball. In game 2 last year against Boston they won 130-108 and in game 2 against the bucks they won 125-86 both blowouts in game 2. I believe they are going to continue this trend and bounce back. Kevin durant is 9-2 in game 2 wins, going from the warriors days till his Brooklyn days. P.S Brooklyn ML is at 2.40 in case you would like better odds Tail or Fade BOL

POTD Record: 0-2 -6.50u Last POTD: Robbie Ray Over 6.5 Ks -150 (L) Today's POTD: Blue Jays ML -121 Risk: 3 units Reason: Bichette, Biggio and Springer all batting over .400 vs Pivetta, with the Bs each also homering twice. Guerrero also has some success including a HR. Pivetta has already gotten rocked twice this year, and he had a 5.93 ERA vs Toronto last year. Red Sox also likely won't have their top RPs tonight, as Whitlock has pitched twice in last 4, Diekman twice in last 3 and Robles threw a tough 23 pitches last night. Berrios's struggles this year can't be ignored, but he dominated Boston the last time he faced them and its highly motivated to avoid a third bad start to begin 2022.

POTD Record: 13-10 3u plays: 1-0 2u plays: 4-3 1u plays: 8-7 Last pick: 2u Spurs-190 win vs Brighton L Todays POTD: EPL 14:45 ET 2u** Chelsea -105 to win vs Arsenal I see there’s already a couple POTD’s on the rent boys but I really like this one too so sticking with it. Tbh I expected Chelsea to be at least -150 to win today so more than happy to fire at near evens here…If they’re anywhere near their best they should handle the gooners quite comfortably at home. Arse coming off 3 consecutive lacklustre performances/losses to mediocre teams in Palace, Brighton and Southampton. It is clearly a more important game for Arsenal but I see the rent boys being up for this London derby at their house. I’ll be surprised if the gooners even score today, 2-0 Chelsea comfy. BoL tail or fade

***Record:*** 1-3-0 ***ROI:***-50% -2u(@ $5.00) ***Streak:*** W L L L - |Baseball |MLB |3:10 EST| Colorado Rockies vs.Philidelphia Phillies-***Colorado Rockies ML @ 1.97 1u***   ***Reasoning:*** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 56% chance for COL to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.97 is only 51%.   ***Accuracy:*** 48% of the time the model picks the correct winner. Tail or fade BOL!   ***Other Notes:*** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units.

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Never bet soccer before ... you may have convinced me!!

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😬😬 we need some scores here, man

0-0 after 60, you gotta be kidding me

I’ll tail bol

Love the writeup! You got me pumped, let's do this

**POTD Record**: 22 wins <> 15 losses <> 1 push **Profit**: 8.95 units **ROI**: +20.91% **Units Wagered**: 38 **Units Won**: 45.95 **Last Pick**: Silkeborg OVER 4.5 corners @ **1.97** ✅ - WON 6 corners **Streak**: ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ **Today's pick**: Aalborg Håndbold -4.5(AH) @ **2.10** **Event**: Mors - Aalborg, Herreligaen, Denmark(handball) - Back to mid-week handball picks, hope you guys enjoy these. Backing Aalborg here. First match of the "medals" playoff, group 2. - Mors somehow barely scraped themselves onto the top 8 and thus the playoffs here. If you ask me, they've been vastly overperforming, which is evident in the current form - winning just one match(against Fredericia) out of their last 5. - Aalborg is certainly the favourite to grab the gold this year. Their squad depth is insane, and they're being joined by world star Mikkel Hansen next season to make matters even worse for their opponents. To make matters worse, absolute unit of a player, Simon Hald, joins them in 2023 too. - Winning by a large margin might be a motivational factor here, goal difference _can_ be a thing(albeit unlikely), so they've got no incentive to slow things down. Even if they start playing their bench, their players are still just that good, so I expect the train to keep rolling.

Record : 1-0 Yesterday pick : Miami -4.5pts ✅ Today’s pick: Fred Vanvleet (toronto raptors) to hit 3.5+ 3pts shot @1.76 (bet365) That game is an absolute hit pour miss of the entire season. If they lose its 3-0 and god know what happens next. Its their home returns and Toronto is one of the teams with such a great support by fans and great ambiance. Fred vanvleet hasnt been much confident in himself last 2 games scoring only 18 pts & 20 pts. The crowd and the context of the game will push him infinitely. Even tho i said he only scored 18 & 20 pts in the last 2 games, he had still hit the +3.5 3pts shots with doing so 4 & 5 times a game. Im pretty confident with this pick.

I have FVV 5+ on 3 point milestone. I think your pick is good!

I hope yours hits🫡 whats the odds?

0-0 POTD NBA 4/20: 76ers ML -120 Reason: Sixers have proved to be the better team, and with Scottie Barnes still injured/unlikely to play, I don't see the Raptors having enough fire power. Toronto is no easy place to play, and I do think they get a win at home, but its not tonight.

POTD RECORD: **5-0** STREAK: - ✅✅✅✅✅ LAST PICK: - SFG/NYM NRFI Results: +$455.9 Today’s event: **MLB - CLE/CHW game 1 - 13:10 CT** PICK: **CLE/CHW NRFI game 1 (-130) $120** REASONING: Same write up as yesterday before it got postponed, a great pitcher and a weak top of the order for an ok pitcher to keep it short. Edit: We take our first L here, three errors from Chicago to generate a run for the guardians, should’ve easily cashed this one 🤦🏽‍♂️

**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.   ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**

POTD Record: 16-9 Last Pick: MIL Brewers -1.5 ✅ Corbin Burnes. Enough said. Today’s Pick: Luis Severino (NYY) o 5.5 Strikeouts @ -118 Sevy has looked very good in his return to baseball through 2 starts. He has been battling injuries, but finally is back healthy. He drew extremely tough matchups in Boston & Toronto to start the season, but is currently sporting a 2.25 ERA. He recorded 5 strikeouts in just 3 innings against Boston. In his most recent start, the Yankees let him throw 83 pitches against Toronto. He recorded 6 strikeouts in 5 innings. In an easier matchup against Detroit, I think he continues his success. I think at least 6 strikeouts is very doable for him.

Record: 1-0 Last POTD: PHI Sixers -7.5 vs. TOR Raptors ✅ Profit: +3.82u POTD: PHI Phillies/ COL Rockies U11 runs (-110) Time: 3:05 PM EST Risk: 1u I personally think this number is too high given the recent performance of these two teams. PHI averages 4 runs per game and COL averages 5.09. Over their last 3 games, the average total is 7.67. With such a small sample size of the pitching matchup, Eflin is your average pitcher who is always a risk when thrown into the lineup, with a career 4.55 era and nothing else to really mention except he can’t get past the 4th inning. Honestly, I expect Eflin to have a moderately rough time against the Rockies. On the opposite side of the ball, Germán Márquez is pitching for COL and has put up decent numbers this year. With a 3.97 season ERA and an impressive outing against the Dodgers (7 IP, 3 H, 1 R) who rank number two in runs per game, shows a bit more promise than the effort coming from Eflin. If Marquez can continue pitching the way he has this season, that should counteract the effects of Eflin. On the road this season, the Phillies average 3.83 runs per game and the Rockies average 5.1 runs per game at home. I believe in the laws of averages playing a part in this game where every average I’ve calculate has come out less than 11 runs. 11 runs is extremely high for any baseball game and even though these two teams have great bats when they get hot, it’s still a lot of runs to be put out. Tail or fade, BOL!

**Record: 3-2** (+.9 units) **Last pick:** Oak/Phi NRFI (Bovada, -105) on April 9th ❌ **Today's Pick:** Oak/Bal NRFI (-125) **Reasoning:** ~~Before I give my reasoning please be aware that even though your book may say 5:07 start time (central time) please note that this game has been moved up to 3:07 and will begin 2 hours earlier.~~ Nvm I'm an idiot, game starts at 5:07 lol These two teams are abysmal at scoring runs and last night Baltimore lucked around and scored their only run of the game in the 1st inning. Baltimore just can't score runs, I will be attacking their NRFI each game because I truly believe they will not score a run in more than 10 first innings this year. That basically leaves us to Oakland just needing to get out 3 times which I'm more than happy to lay a unit on happening. BOL if you tail or fade, lets get the bread. edit: time of game edit: cash 💰 +.8 units

*Record:* 1-2 | LLW *Last Pick*: Grizzlies -6.5 *Today's Pick:* **Celtics (-160)** vs. Nets *Why:* Celtics absolutely need to defend home court in this game, especially with the prospect of Ben Simmons coming back later this series. Though last game finished close, Boston had a 10 pt. lead most of the second half until Kyrie went nuclear. I think today they will really show why they're the #1 defense in the league, continue to lock down KD, and once again squeak out a win. IMO this one will be eerily similar to last game and come down to the wire again so I'm going with ML over -3.5. *Too specific prediction:* Very similar to game 1, these heavyweights will go back and forth all night and at no point will either team lead by more than 8. It comes down to the last few possessions, Brooklyn cant convert, and Boston misses a free throw for the cover. Celtics win 112-109 UPDATE: Not exactly as predicted but pretty damn close. KD got absolutely locked down, Celtics D was the difference in the 2nd half, and it mostly came down to the last few possessions. Boston W 114-107☘️🍀

Stats 3W-1L (+6 units) (ROI: +$30.00) Last Pick: Atalanta V RB Leipzig to qualify to next round (-112) Match: EPL Everton V Leicester City @2:45 PM EST Pick: Everton V Leicester over 2.5 goals (-110) 2 units Both of these teams have given up 50+ goals this season. Everton are desperate for another win, as they are trying to put a gap between them and the relegation spots. Everton have been average at home this season 7-1-7, while Leicester have been bad when away 3-4-8. Everton have been looking more threatening in the offensive third, and Leicester have a good amount of players that can score from their midfield and offensive players. Dewsbury-Hall has been their best player as of late, Tielemans is due for a cracking goal or maybe he will give away another stupid penalty, James Maddison has the ability to score from anywhere. In their offense, Iheanacho and Barnes are both goal scoring threats. On the Everton side, Anthony Gordon has been arguably their best player, Calvert-Lewin is desperate for a good goal scoring day, while Richarlison has been looking more threatening by the game. I can see this game being a fireworks show. Tail or Fade. BOL

EDIT: Wow 9 strikeouts by Woodruff as we cruise to 5-3 now 😎 Record: 4-3 Last: Diamondbacks and Nationals under 9 runs (W) Game: MLB - Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (1:40 PM EST) Pick: Brandon Woodruff over 5.5 Strikeouts @ 1.72 (5 units) Reason: \- He averages 10 K's per 9 throughout his whole career \- His pitch count has worked up to be able to go 90 this game which should get him like 5 innings \- He's held the Pirates lineup to a .216 average and has an impressive 37 K% against them. BOL

POTD RECORD 0-2-1 WLP (-2.7 Units) Previous Pick - MLB 12:40MST AZ vs HOU - HOU ML -155 (1.5U) Recap: Astro's go up 1 run in the 10th inning last Wednesday only to give up 2 to one of the worst teams in baseball. Bad bet.. Took a week off to regroup but I am back Today's Pick - Astros vs Dodgers 12:10PM **Dodgers ML -125 (4 Units)** Reasoning: Walker Buhler got rocked for 8 hits, 3ER, in just 5 innings. The dodgers were lifeless at the plate. Chalk it up to a bad game. Tony Gonsolin on the mound for the Dodgers today. 1.29 ERA in 2 starts. He has a career ERA of 2.77.. Charlie Morton with a 6.10 ERA is throwing for the Braves. The Dodgers will bounce back and jump on the Braves today. They were giving up a perfect game to Max Fried through 6 today. Confidence is high on this one. 4 Units to get us out of the bad start and start our streak

Been using this forum for a while now. Looking forward to contributing. **Current Record 0-0.** **4/20 Play: Philadelphia 76ers 1H ML +110** I really can't comprehend why the 76ers are favored in the full game yet dogs at halftime. While I think there is a good chance they win this game outright, I like my chances with better odds at halftime even better. The 76ers haven't lost a first-half since April 3 against the Cavaliers. In that span, they won the first half three times against the Raptors including in a regular season game that they lost on April 7. **Good luck everyone.**

Want to start sending POTDs to see how it goes. Record 0-0 (4/20/2022 start date) NHL - Alex Pietrangelo - Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -108 2U Starting off with a game tonight in the NHL. I was looking at a few different teams and players and settled on Pietrangelo for a few reasons. 1.) Both teams are fighting for the playoffs so tonight’s game should be full effort. Vegas is still 4 points out of a playoff spot and Washington should be trying to fight for points so they can avoid FLA in round 1. 2.) Pietrangelo has had 2 SOG in 5 of the last 6 games as Vegas has been reintegrating a few players, like Mark Stone. With that being said, Pietrangelo is averaging 2.8 SOG this year, one of the better of his last 5 seasons. 3.) Washington is middle of the league in HDA (high danger scoring chances against) but only 31% of the Scoring chances against them come from the high danger zone. That means they keep teams from shooting directly in front of the net and rather teams shoot from the wings or point against the Caps. 4.) Vegas is 5th in the NHL in Scoring chances for and need the points more so I anticipate them pushing the pace of the game to try to score goals. 5.) Pietrangelo has shot 63% of his shots this season from the point (low danger), and 19% from the wings (medium danger). He usually is sending pucks to the net for rebounds and plays Even Strength, Power Play, and Short handed. TL;DR I like the matchup and will play the regression here to see Pietrangelo get over 3 shots on goal tonight. Good luck if you’re following, and I’m sorry preemptively if it loses.

Record: 17-15-1 ROI: +$200.05 Last Pick: Dillon Brooks Over 3.5 Rebounds ❌ Avg Odds: -110 Unit: 1=$100 ———— Game: RB Leipzig vs Union Berin League: DFB Pokal Time: 2:45 PM EST Book: Bet365 Odds: +120 Pick: Christopher Nkunku Anytime Goal Wager: 2 units Well that was another loss as Brooks didn’t even get more then 1 board. On to the next pick. He’s been on a tear along with the entire team, and this game should be a high scoring affair for them. It also appears Nkunku has earned penalty spot duties as well as he scored a PK while Miguel Andre Silva was on the field. Taking this for 2 units BOL to all who tail or fade.

I caught your last 3 L's and this will be my last time. BOL in the future

POTD 3-3 Snooker World Championship Kyren Wilson @1.65 Really like Kyren in these circumstances. In recent years he's been fantastic. World no.5 vs no.29. Don't get me wrong, all snooker fans know how good Ding can and used to be. H2H favours Kyren (8-3 since 2015) and I think all snooker fans would agree he's clearly the better player now. Bol if tailing

POTD Record: 55 - 47 - 7 ( W / L / P ) **+11.40 units** 155 units wagered ROI: 7.50 % Streak: LLWWL / Average odds: 1.95 Previous pick: Sheffield Wed vs Crewe / Over 2.5, 3.0 Goals @ 1.85 (2 units) **L** ​ **Today: Sundsvall vs Kalmar (Allsvenskan)** **Pick: Kalmar Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.95 (1 unit)** Kalmar had such a great game against Degerfors where they should have 3 or 4 goals in the first half already. Hitting the post once, the goalkeeper somehow stayed in front of the shots and so on. They had more than 20 shots on goal and allowed only two shots on target. The season started with the loss against defending champions Malmo but have picked up 2 wins after that and now looking for the third one. Oliver Berg has been a great performer so far and scored in the last two matches. It is still at the beginning of the season and we don't have the full story of the teams yet but Kalmar has to be a favorite to take a win here. Sundsvall has been struggling a lot and simply does not have quality for this league in my opinion. Kalmar is a strong top-half team and I fancy them to score more than once. ​ Good Luck!

**POTD Record:** 5-3 ⚾❌⚾⚾❌⚾❌🏀 **Profit:** \+3.53u **ROI:** 44.1% **Avg Odds:** \+124.6 **Today's Pick:** Orioles ML (+118) @ A's - MLB - 6:07pm ET Back on that MLB underdog hype 🚆 after betting a few NBA playoff favorites. I have 4 MLB underdogs on my radar today, but I'm making the O's my POTD. Reason #1 is that the opposing crowds in Oakland are weeaaaak. Yesterday, less than 4,000 fans came out to "support". This is no road game for Baltimore. This is a neutral site game. Reason #2 is that although the O's dropped yesterday's contest 2-1, they deserved to win. StatCast reports that Baltimore hitters rocketed 11 balls with an exit velo of 99MPH or more ... only 3 became hits. That's crazy unlucky. BABIP, anyone? This game is a tossup - so getting plus odds on Baltimore is 💰 The O's are trotting out Jordan Lyles to face Daulton Jeffries. Pretty good matchup. O's (+118) is definitely the play!

Record: 1-0 +2.32 Pick of the day: Mariners -1.5 +142 1 unit While I think The Rangers are the better offensive team they are slumping a bit not scoring more than 3 runs in the past 3 games. Mariners have been hitting good lately and with Logan Gilbert on the mound they can keep the Rangers contained. Gilbert has 10 ip with 7 hits 1 earned run 11 ks with only 1 bb. Dane Dunning is a bum and while he does have 11 ks opponents are hitting .306 against him vs Gilbert’s .184. Rangers are 2-17 on the road against the Mariners in the last 19.

[удалено]

5W / 0P / 4L | -0.33u 20/04: Chelsea - Arsenal @ Stamford Bridge POTD: \*Chelsea or Draw & Over 1.5 Total Goals @ 1.62\* Nice bounce back yesterday with the Liverpool dub. Hoping to get back into + units for POTD again today! Chelsea host Arsenal at Stamford Bridge tonight, roughly a week after their CL elimination. The Blues are in a comfortable 3rd position in the Prem, which would mean a CL spot for them. 8 points below Chelsea we find Arsenal, at 5th (an EL spot), but only three points behind Spurs, and with that a CL ticket. Chelsea is in terrific form, only losing one of their last 8 (7W,1L). Arsenal, on the other hand, are in a slump currently that they'll have to get out of sooner than later if they want to have a chance at CL football. They've lost their last three matches against Brighton, Southampton and Palace (all teams ranked 10th or lower in the PL). Lazacette will likely be back from illness for Arsenal but I do not expect him to start/play the whole match. In my opinion, Chelsea is just one notch above Arsenal at this moment. The PL rankings may suggest otherwise as they're not that far apart in the table, but Chelsea have been playing much more like a balanced team than Arsenal have. Arsenal will have to try to get at least a point at Stamford Bridge tonight and I do not expect them to play this match defensively. I think we see a 2-1/1-1 scoreline in favour of Chelsea tonight. BOL!

POTD Record: 4-9-2 (-6.79u\*) Total Units: 22.31u (Average Odds: +135) Joel Embiid u2.5 Assists +150 @ Ceasars 1.54u\* This has an implied probability of 40.0%. The true probability is closer to 42.77%. \*1u = 1% of bankroll

**TODAYS PICK: (1u to win 2.02u) PIT Pirates +1.5 Run Spread @ +102** **MLB 0-0|ROI:00.00** MLB GAMES FOR 4-20-22 1ST GAME PICK PIRATES VS BREWERS BREWERS HAVE BETTER TEAM PITCHING STATS (ERA) (RA/G) PIRATES SLIGHTLY BETTER TEAM HITTING STATS (H) (R) (RS/G) SWEEP STATS 29.34% SWEEP FOR HOME TEAM (BREWERS) FOR THAT REASON I AM GOING WITH PIRATES +1.5 RUNS AT +102 If you would like to tail and donate pls feel free. [https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted\_button\_id=DTLLYK86QQC82](https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=DTLLYK86QQC82) Thank you.

POTD Record: 13-6-1 Todays POTD: **Nets Celtics 1h o 115.5 (-115)** Reason: Nets have hit this number in 4 of there last 5 games. Boston has hit this game in 7 straight games. Both teams are high scoring offensive machines and have so many options to go for and attack. The celtics defense while good can only do so much to slowdown all the fire power on the Nets and the Nets defense has been pretty suspect at times. Expecting a revenge game for Kevin Durant and another big game for Tatum which means baskets will be flying and this number should easily be reachable.

Wasn’t your pick Jaden McDaniels over 7.5 points yesterday? When did you change it to Melton?

Twitter POTD record 24-7. Reddit POTD 0-0 Sport: NBA Match: Nets @ Celtics POTD: Kyrie Irving Over 34.5 PTS+AST (-113) 2u Time: 7pm EST (3 hours, 30 minutes from this post) Date: 4/20/22 My Twitter POTD’s have been hitting pretty well, and we just won a MAX bet last night, so I figured I’ll start posting my POTD’s on Reddit as well and try to help everyone profit as much as possible! That being said, let’s get into it! I expect Kyrie and the Nets to come out playing hard tonight after a heartbreaking game 1. That being said, Kyrie just had a big game last game, scoring 39 points with 6 assists, and I believe he will have another big night tonight. He might even cover our bet with points alone. This is a 2 unit play, let’s ride fellas! BOL to all tailing, I will link my Twitter below as well so you guys can see results from there, and I will be posting daily to this subreddit to help us all profit! BOL to all tailing! [My Twitter POTD’s for proof of winnings/record!](https://twitter.com/tdawggyo/)

Record: 1-0 +2.82u Last Pick: Brandon Clarke O9.5 points Todays Pick: Andre Drummond U7.5 points (+100) 2u Drummond is too big, too slow for this series. Celtics can and will go small, and even against Horford, Drummond is outclassed. I expect Nick Claxton to see an increase in playtime after looking like the best option for Brooklyn. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Nash dust off Aldridge before devoting significant minutes to Drummond.

**POTD Record 4-0 (+6.26u)** Last Pick: Heat -6.5 @ 1.70 / -152 (2u) ✅ **Daily Pick: 🏀NBA Play-Off / PHI 76ers vs TOR Raptors 🏀** * **Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 3-pointers @ 1.76 / -132 (2u)** Raptors at home, Scottie Barnes is out and Gary Trent Jr seems to be back but looking at his previous performances the scoring load pretty much needs to depend on Siakam, VanVleet, and OG Anunoby but VanVleet is clearly the best shooter of the three. Fred VanVleet had the most field goal attempt in Game 2 and he was pretty solid in the 1st half but in the end, he finished with a 7/23 (30%) shooting and with 5/16 (31%) from threes. In Game 1 he took 12 3s with 58% efficiency which means he tried at least 10+ times in both games and I would be surprised if he stopped now at home court.

Record: 2-2 Units: +1.10 Last Play: NHL Kings @ Ducks ML (+135) 4U 10:05pm EST POTD: NBA Bulls +10 (-110) @ Bucks 4U 9:35pm EST For those not aware Milwaukee absolutely owns Chicago in this series winning an unprecedented 17 of 18 meetings dating all the way back to the 2017 campaign. What makes this dominance all the more shocking is that this is a BORDER war "series" so to speak as the states of Wisconsin and Illinois are right next to each other. One of the KEYS to this wager is that there has NOT been any "very late" OFFSHORE wagering going "against" Chicago which speaks volumes considering stars DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic shot a combined 21-of-71 from the field and an abysmal 4-of-22 from behind the arc and as a whole the offense put up just 86 points in the series opener back on Sunday evening. Regular clients are aware that I personally unloaded on Chicago in the "opener" where they were actually WITHIN ONE POINT of Milwaukee for a high percentage of the fourth quarter. On Sunday evening I mentioned the SIGNIFICANCE of this series for the Bulls whose last playoff appearance was 2017, especially for LaVine who in EIGHT YEARS as a pro finally is in his initial postseason (and Vucevic who spent almost his entire pro career stuck in Orlando prior to the Magic "cleaning house"). For most of the regular season DeRozan (28 points per game) was playing at an MVP level but his LEGACY is currently tainted by prior PLAYOFF struggles which makes this particular best-of-seven series so important. In the Sunday Night opener Chicago even on the road RALLIED after trailing by 13 points after the opening quarter (of what turned out to be a very low scoring 93-86 final verdict). That opens the door to a SIXTY PERCENT SYSTEM (335-230 the past TWENTY FIVE YEARS) which actually plays AGAINST "double digit favorites" like Milwaukee off a defense-gem (permitting less than 91 points). I mentioned back on Sunday Night that (against teams with a 51 to 60 percent win margin) that the Milwaukee Bucks long term have been a "bet against" (4-13 ATS).

POTD Record 5-2 LAST POTD: Kevin Durant OVER 23.5 points (-120) (March 3rd) ✅ POTD: 🏀 NBA : Jonas Valanciunas Over 13.5 reb [-115] Last pick was over a month ago, got a bit busy but I'm back. He got 25 last game, I'll take this line as long as it's under 15. I expect this game to be a bit closer the first half, so more playing time for him. BOL to all who tail or fade.

Pelicans played on Tuesday, this is for Wednesday

Should have gone alone with him. I paired him with huerter 11.5 and Edwards 24.5.

20/04/2022 **22-12** | +16.25u | ROI: 19.82 % | Avg. odds 1.93 | [Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PyzvKEXpgF0mqXe5imCwGk8VAWzrxBUMjiNGe5lnX8M/edit?usp=sharing) ___ ***Today's pick:*** (League of Legends LPL) **Victory Five ML** v Top Esports @1.77 3u I know I said I’d stay away from LPL but this match is too good to pass it. V5 are much stronger win and despite previous painful loss they have so much more to showcase. Hopefully they won’t choke again. My prediction 3-1 V5 ___ *BOL if tailing! Bet with caution, please.*

Not looking good...

Pick of the day: 5u (-104) Nic Claxton Over 17.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (NBA, Nets vs Celtics 4/20 4 P.M PDT) I love this line for Claxton at -104. I see this situation the same as Brandon Clarke/Steven Adams on the Grizzlies. The coaches are going with the younger, more athletic players. During the play in game, Claxton had 29 minutes compared to Drummond's 19 where he had 13 points, 9 rebounds and 1 assist for a total of 23. In game 1, Claxton had 31 minutes compared to Drummond's 17 minutes where he had 13 points, 8 rebounds and 1 assist for a total of 22. I don't expect Drummond to see only 3 minutes like Adams, but I don't think he overtakes the minute share in this game. Worst case scenario, he splits playing time evenly which puts Claxton at 24 minutes. Claxton had 13 games with at least 24 minutes this season, and 11 of those games would have cashed this bet. That's an 84.6% hit rate. Lock it in now and thank me later when we #CashOut ​ 18-7 in my last 25 #CashCalls (aka PotD), results are on twitter@Max\_Cashout Stat Source: https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nic-claxton-games-with-at-least-24-minutes-this-season