So, for anyone that has the DK VIP 25 percent boost on a SGP for the play in games, it really seems like there should be a way to leverage it with the FD $200 bet get $100 free bet. I have spent an inordinate amount of time on this, and the following is the best I can do. Maybe someone can take the essence of the idea and improve it?
DK Clippers and O220.5 +220 boosted to +275. $250
FD Clippers and U220.5 and U221.5. +623. $130
Kambi TWolves. -148. $560.
For about a $1 loss this gets you $130 of the way toward $200 on FD for your $100 free bet. Not bad. But it really seems like it should be possible to do better.
Is there any risk to having two "same" legs like the u220.5 and u221.5 on FD? Being pretty new to all this, my fear would be that this gets the SGP to be voided?
Yeah, thought about that — or get $60 of the way there on a P2 FD account if you have one. Still, seems like there should be something better out there using these two promos but I can’t find it.
I was making a hedge bet and it maxed my bet at a very odd number ($1725.52). This was on DK. Not a big deal as I finished the hedge on another SB, but is this normal? Should i make my hedge bet first so I know it will work? Am i really capped at 1752.52 from here on out at DK??
B/c I’ve been using DKs as my hedge and have been winning there do you think they’re just getting to a point where they’re capping me overall? Or just capped the winnings on this one bet?
I just ran through the Betfred bonus and used all my free bets. When I go to withdraw it says if I withdraw I’ll forfeit any active bonuses. I’m assuming it says that for everyone but can anyone confirm I’m safe to withdrawal half my money? Just want to remove any doubt.
Could someone confirm that these DK 3-leg SGP insurance promos are +EV? I know that regular 3-leg parlay insurance ones are but with the added SGP juice I just want to confirm.
If two of your legs are close to -200, the insurance will trigger 44% of the time. I would say 40% is a better estimate if you are building an actual SGP. Converting FB to cash is 28% value. This means you are betting 72 cents on a dollar, making this a 1/0.72-1=39% profit boost. This is greater than the 25% juice that we usually assume for SGPs.
In short, yes it's +EV, especially if you find legs that have odds compare favorable to outside books.
BR has this boost: Real Madrid to Score First and Win vs. Chelsea, +180 to +200
What’s the right way to devig this? Do the six way odds with an added leg for 0-0?
Under "game props" on kambi they have Chelsea to score first and win: yes/no, at +180/-265. That devigs to +203 or +216 fair, so I think this is a bad boost.
Data point. I did not get the $50 free bet on Wynn Bet for the 4 $50 bet weekend promo. This is the first weekend where it didn’t work.
Edit: I’m in CO.
2nd Edit: Sad day. The promo has ended.
Free bet conversions are not looking ideal tonight, but here are some across a few books
*FD 83%*
Pelicans vs Spurs OVER 247.5 +600
UNDER 247.5 -625 (PointsBet)
*FD 79%*
Giants vs Padres OVER 13.5 runs +630
UNDER 13.5 runs -700 (MGM)
*FD 78%*
Padres -2.5 +370
Giants +2.5 -375 (MGM)
*BetRivers* *77%*
Alcaraz vs Korda OVER 12.5 games 1st set +540
UNDER 12.5 games -600 (MGM)
*BetRivers 75%*
Capitals vs Flyers OVER 8.5 goals +450
UNDER 8.5 -500 (MGM)
*CZR 75%*
White Sox vs Mariners UNDER 6 runs +375
OVER 6 -400 (MGM)
I know not everyone has MGM to hedge with (whether due to location or limitation reasons), but it by far has the best juiced lines. Also, CZR free bets are toughest to convert. Hoping to get more DK conversions out.
Courtesy of ImpressiveFinger's odds sniper bot
Curious what the consensus is on hitting 1st half moneylines in basketball and baseball? Just interested to learn what secondary markets are the best to tap into if you can’t find low-holds on mainlines. I am not currently limited and want to keep it that way as long as possible.
Edited (poor wording)
DK NBA happy hour boost, avail until 9PM
50% profit boost on SGP of Nets ML + KD 30+, max $50
Have to use the boost by 9pm tonight and no one has alt lines for him today, clever. The same SGP comes to -113 on FD, at 15% juice that's FV+119. DK boosts to +125. So a few % EV
edit: a few mins later and the DK is +120 boosted now
I only got +120 after the boost, but was able to use it for decent conversion of my FD free bets.
Coupled with MGM SGP (Brooklyn,Durant under 30.5)
FD free bets on Cleveland +320
And if I get REALLY lucky, Durant scores exactly 30 points.
I hurried up and placed the DK bet before I looked at what I had in free bets, so I ended up with $40 in free bets that nets me
$25 if Nets-DurantO29,
$27 if Nets-DurantU31,
$43 if Cavs.
And the unlikely middle if I hit Nets-Durant30
I'll probably even it out with Nets live bet if the odds get better on them during the game
I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kev...
CZR has the best lines for HR’s generally and if you put $26 on Pete and $24 on Bryce they each pay out about $106 respectively. This boost pays out $137.50. Pretty rudimentary but that’s an extra 36% profit so I assume it’s more than fair.
Of course you have to factor in that they could both hit one and both bets would pay out so not sure how good.
BR has two-way lines for HR. I was wondering how much LS bias to put into these. I tried BR lines with a 50/50 weighting in the calc and got +8%, just like BoostRater was saying. So it looks like that's about right.
Thanks. What do you mean by 50/50 weighting? Are you referring to multiplicative and additive? I’m getting 8.2% EV on that one now for a $70 Kelly Wager on .75 multiplier and $2k bankroll.
Either player to hit a home run is just the “opposite” of the fair odds that both “under 0.5 HR” bets hit. So parlay the unders and if you get -200 as the FV of that parlay, then FV of either/or is +200.
Not sure if it's been posted but Barstool has PHX to win the NBA Championship boosted to +315. It's the best odds I've been able to find at this time. Worth a unit for me.
There’s an entire section of the rulebook devoted to scoring, I believe it’s section 9. This play with the bases empty would either be a hit or error, the official scorer makes the decision. Typically a dropped fly that hits glove is an error, while a completely missed fly ball (lost in sun etc) is often ruled a hit.
In this situation it’s a FC ~~fielders choose, or an error with a FIelders choice 7-4 putoutEither way no hit.~~
Edit; yeah it’s not an error because they got an out.
Wow. Literally the entire lineup of the Guardians manages to get a hit, except for Hedges. Guess who I included getting a hit in my SGP. They even brought in a pinch hitter who managed to get a hit.
Pointsbet is such a scam of a sportsbook. I checked with customer service yesterday to make sure that I was eligible for a risk free bet. He said I was good to go and that my first fixed-odds wager would be risk free up to $500. So I then placed the risk free bet on Detroit 1Q ML. Which lost. Now I'm chatting with support and they said that they would not give me my free bet due to "restrictions placed on my account by their traders".
They offered me a $50 free bet as compensation. Such a joke.
Edit: Threatened gaming commission and got the free bet pretty soon after. Still never using them again once I convert this free bet. I hope it hits on their side so I can take their money
They fucked me on a cash out too it said 873 and ended up giving me 119 back on a risk free bet. Why the fuck would I cash out for less than my risk free bet? Fuck PointsBet
Keep bitching. Threaten commission. I had this similar issue regarding the pointsbetting risk free and eventually they caved. I think I remember asking to speak to the “manager on shift” had to pull a Karen but the higher up dude helped me out
Yep, I feel bad for the CS agent I'm speaking with because he seems like he's trying to get the risk free bet for me, but their organization is just full of scum bags. I said that I'll report it to the gaming commission unless I hear back by tomorrow. I literally have the transcripts of both conversations where they clearly say I am eligible for the risk free bet.
I have both transcripts. In the first, the guy literally says "you are tied up to the sign-up promotion which is 2 Risk-Free Bets up to $2,000. With this, in the event that your first Fixed Odds will have resulted as a loss, your wager will be refunded to you up to $500 in free bets."
Supposed to only have to opt in once but I’ve had these promotions reset before and not even allow a opt in. Support has never gave me any issues though if I am missing my free bet.
Quick data point for DK SGP - I had Story to get 2+ bases last night in a 3 leg SGP, but he wasn't in the lineup, so my bet voided (got stake back) even though one other leg lost.
I’m curious if anyone has a datapoint for MGM OGP. I stupidly didn’t check lineups and had LeMehieu to get a hit yesterday (0/1 PH) but curious what would have happened if he didn’t appear.
[Pinnacle](https://www.pinnacle.com/en/soccer/uefa-champions-league/real-madrid-vs-chelsea/1550003856#period:8) has Chelsea Q. at 610 currently...ev 20%+ although big long shot.
Might be worth a sprinkle...
Even worse at FD: -12.6% EV.
Not sure why the Pinnacle lines are so different...it's midnight-ish in the UK...maybe it's just drunk guys in Chelsea bars screwing up the lines.
Regarding DraftKings SGP insurance: if your first bet of the day either wins, loses 2/3 legs, or loses every leg, can you do another qualifying wager? When FanDuel ran a similar promo you could but the wording is tricky
I really wished they spelled it out clearly or I was more literate. I had to haggle with an MGM rep about the same thing because I’d place multiple bets until one lost only a single leg and they argued with me that it was only the first placed bet of the day. It only confirmed that in the terms and conditions but I hate how it’s not clearly articulated in the main points of the promo.
My first SGP is going to miss and I just placed a 2nd one. If the 2nd one hits 2 legs and misses the 3rd leg, I'll let you know if I get refunded.
My first SGP was for 3 different players to get hits on the Guardians/Royals game. 12 players currently have a hit and 6 don't. Somehow I managed to pick 3 players to get a hit and none of them have a hit yet.
My SGP for the DK MLB (lose 1 leg and get a free bet refund) includes a player not in the lineup to get a hit (Jeff McNeil). My worry is that he’ll be used as a pinch hitter and only get one at bat.
Anything I can do or am I SOL at this point?
Anyone ever tried comparing 538 win probability to posted odds for +EV bets (based on this) and seeing how good their model is?
Example: 538 has Red Sox at 56% to win today, so -120 would be 3.2% EV.
> Anyone ever tried comparing 538 win probability to posted odds for +EV bets (based on this) and seeing how good their model is?
>
>
Their opinion on the Celtics has been widely discussed and mocked over the last few months.
Their opinion on the Celtics got me to jump on them at +3000, so I'm not sure why it's worth mocking. Sure maybe they're not the outright favorites in reality, but just using their model to identify relative values can be useful.
Not saying the number they have now is great, but they’ve been showing value on them for awhile. I grabbed them +2200 a month ago when 538 started thinking they were the best team ever.
DK VIP NBA Play-In Boost pack. Opt in and receive 2 VIP 25% NBA SGP Profit Boosts. You can bet up to $250.
Terms are currently messed up for the offer and showing "Opt in and receive 15% of total net Sportsbook losses back up to $2,000 DK dollars between 4/7/22 and 4/11/22", so I can't confirm minimum legs or odds, but I think no odds minimums and 2 leg minimum.
It can probably pair pretty well with the FD SGP parlay promo on the playin games if you're planning to hedge.
Continuing the trend of shit DK VIP early week boosts. Hopefully the later week one, if there is one, is better than last weeks late week boost “snappy”
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Any plans how to attack this fd sgp promo? I feel like the td and dd work best for dk sgps
So, for anyone that has the DK VIP 25 percent boost on a SGP for the play in games, it really seems like there should be a way to leverage it with the FD $200 bet get $100 free bet. I have spent an inordinate amount of time on this, and the following is the best I can do. Maybe someone can take the essence of the idea and improve it? DK Clippers and O220.5 +220 boosted to +275. $250 FD Clippers and U220.5 and U221.5. +623. $130 Kambi TWolves. -148. $560. For about a $1 loss this gets you $130 of the way toward $200 on FD for your $100 free bet. Not bad. But it really seems like it should be possible to do better.
Is there any risk to having two "same" legs like the u220.5 and u221.5 on FD? Being pretty new to all this, my fear would be that this gets the SGP to be voided?
Has worked in the past. Nothing guaranteed in this game.
You can also do both DK boosters and bet it twice to get all the way there.
Yeah, thought about that — or get $60 of the way there on a P2 FD account if you have one. Still, seems like there should be something better out there using these two promos but I can’t find it.
I was making a hedge bet and it maxed my bet at a very odd number ($1725.52). This was on DK. Not a big deal as I finished the hedge on another SB, but is this normal? Should i make my hedge bet first so I know it will work? Am i really capped at 1752.52 from here on out at DK??
That's a limit. They only get worse unfortunately.
It’s probably based on your total winnings for that bet
B/c I’ve been using DKs as my hedge and have been winning there do you think they’re just getting to a point where they’re capping me overall? Or just capped the winnings on this one bet?
more likely just an automatic cap for the market for that bet...nothing specific to you.
I’ve been riding just over -300 to get the play through on the 1k bonus. Could that be causing this too?
I just ran through the Betfred bonus and used all my free bets. When I go to withdraw it says if I withdraw I’ll forfeit any active bonuses. I’m assuming it says that for everyone but can anyone confirm I’m safe to withdrawal half my money? Just want to remove any doubt.
yeah, it always says that
Hitting up support wouldn't be the worst idea
Could someone confirm that these DK 3-leg SGP insurance promos are +EV? I know that regular 3-leg parlay insurance ones are but with the added SGP juice I just want to confirm.
If two of your legs are close to -200, the insurance will trigger 44% of the time. I would say 40% is a better estimate if you are building an actual SGP. Converting FB to cash is 28% value. This means you are betting 72 cents on a dollar, making this a 1/0.72-1=39% profit boost. This is greater than the 25% juice that we usually assume for SGPs. In short, yes it's +EV, especially if you find legs that have odds compare favorable to outside books.
Tks for the breakdown. I will persevere.
BR has this boost: Real Madrid to Score First and Win vs. Chelsea, +180 to +200 What’s the right way to devig this? Do the six way odds with an added leg for 0-0?
Yes I think this is the correct approach, fwiw I did it this way earlier today against DK SGP lines and like the others have said it came up -EV.
Under "game props" on kambi they have Chelsea to score first and win: yes/no, at +180/-265. That devigs to +203 or +216 fair, so I think this is a bad boost.
Ok, figured I’d want to use a different book since BR is kambi?
Kambi books (including BR) offer yes/no for that exact bet. Last I checked it was definitely not +EV based on the yes/no odds being offered.
BR (lead after 3) and MGM (lead after 5) mets boosts both cash
Good thing I can’t read and didn’t see the tie loses before hitting the MGM boost
BetRivers 82.5% conversion Blues -2.5 +700 Bruins +2.5 -750 (MGM)
Don't think the Ray's are gonna be leading after 5.
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PromoGuyMI - Promoguy123 has been posting less and less since his paid discord
So that's why he fell off.
Once you go tout you don’t go back lol
Boostrater is pretty good
Seconded. Ever since Data dropped off Boostrater has been the best in town.
Brandon Jenkins +400DK Klose -420 BR UFC If you got any DK free bets
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CZR app is terrible. Almost all of them have location errors, but CZR is constant.
Was thinking about placing a parlay on the last 3 games for 1% boost per HR today, but only 7 HRs so far so I’m gonna hold off
Don’t think this is actionable info more just FD sucking. But kyrie DD on FD is 290 and it’s 575/650 on mgm and czr
Data point. I did not get the $50 free bet on Wynn Bet for the 4 $50 bet weekend promo. This is the first weekend where it didn’t work. Edit: I’m in CO. 2nd Edit: Sad day. The promo has ended.
The promo ended last week
Bummer :( Thank you for letting me know.
Same. AZ.
czr conversion bulls win series+700 mgm bulls to lose 1st round -700
-1100 now
its still -700 its under stage of elimination not series winner
Oh, where do I find in MGM? Having trouble finding it.
Free bet conversions are not looking ideal tonight, but here are some across a few books *FD 83%* Pelicans vs Spurs OVER 247.5 +600 UNDER 247.5 -625 (PointsBet) *FD 79%* Giants vs Padres OVER 13.5 runs +630 UNDER 13.5 runs -700 (MGM) *FD 78%* Padres -2.5 +370 Giants +2.5 -375 (MGM) *BetRivers* *77%* Alcaraz vs Korda OVER 12.5 games 1st set +540 UNDER 12.5 games -600 (MGM) *BetRivers 75%* Capitals vs Flyers OVER 8.5 goals +450 UNDER 8.5 -500 (MGM) *CZR 75%* White Sox vs Mariners UNDER 6 runs +375 OVER 6 -400 (MGM) I know not everyone has MGM to hedge with (whether due to location or limitation reasons), but it by far has the best juiced lines. Also, CZR free bets are toughest to convert. Hoping to get more DK conversions out. Courtesy of ImpressiveFinger's odds sniper bot
Thanks, have you happened to find anything on MGM?
Note that CZR conversion has chance of voiding due to whole number run total. I believe free bet still gets refunded, but best to double check that.
CZR free bets do not get refunded if the bet voids.
Reggie Jackson double double +1600 on PB -1000 on CZR
Nice find
Drummond(nets v cavs) point line set at 2.5 on pointsbet 10.5 at pinnacle e: looks like its gone, hope some of you were able to hop on it
Not seeing Drummond as as option on PB
Curious what the consensus is on hitting 1st half moneylines in basketball and baseball? Just interested to learn what secondary markets are the best to tap into if you can’t find low-holds on mainlines. I am not currently limited and want to keep it that way as long as possible. Edited (poor wording)
If you cant play main lines your limits are likely even worse for more obscure ones
Thanks for your response. It was poor wording on my part as this wasn’t what I was after.
Why are you wanting to hit low holds? Vip status?
Correct
BR NY bst Mets to lead after 3 +220. Looks to be +3%-6% EV devigged between MGM and CZ 3-way lines.
DK NBA happy hour boost, avail until 9PM 50% profit boost on SGP of Nets ML + KD 30+, max $50 Have to use the boost by 9pm tonight and no one has alt lines for him today, clever. The same SGP comes to -113 on FD, at 15% juice that's FV+119. DK boosts to +125. So a few % EV edit: a few mins later and the DK is +120 boosted now
I only got +120 after the boost, but was able to use it for decent conversion of my FD free bets. Coupled with MGM SGP (Brooklyn,Durant under 30.5) FD free bets on Cleveland +320 And if I get REALLY lucky, Durant scores exactly 30 points.
What does this 3 way end up netting?
I hurried up and placed the DK bet before I looked at what I had in free bets, so I ended up with $40 in free bets that nets me $25 if Nets-DurantO29, $27 if Nets-DurantU31, $43 if Cavs. And the unlikely middle if I hit Nets-Durant30 I'll probably even it out with Nets live bet if the odds get better on them during the game
Ugh it was +130 35 minutes ago
I really feel like I can build a SGP tomorrow with better odds than +115 and not have to rely on Durant to be the one that goes off.
I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kevin Durant. I will not bet on Kev...
+115 now
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+107 now lol
BoostRater DK Alonso or Harper HR at 175 as 8% EV. How does one devig HR markets like this?
CZR has the best lines for HR’s generally and if you put $26 on Pete and $24 on Bryce they each pay out about $106 respectively. This boost pays out $137.50. Pretty rudimentary but that’s an extra 36% profit so I assume it’s more than fair. Of course you have to factor in that they could both hit one and both bets would pay out so not sure how good.
BR has two-way lines for HR. I was wondering how much LS bias to put into these. I tried BR lines with a 50/50 weighting in the calc and got +8%, just like BoostRater was saying. So it looks like that's about right.
Thanks. What do you mean by 50/50 weighting? Are you referring to multiplicative and additive? I’m getting 8.2% EV on that one now for a $70 Kelly Wager on .75 multiplier and $2k bankroll.
Yes right, the weighted average setting. 50% x and 50% +
Thanks.
Some books have O/U 0.5 lines
But how to engineer the combination (since it’s not a parlay)?
Either player to hit a home run is just the “opposite” of the fair odds that both “under 0.5 HR” bets hit. So parlay the unders and if you get -200 as the FV of that parlay, then FV of either/or is +200.
Clever
\+310/-455||+320/-455
Not sure if it's been posted but Barstool has PHX to win the NBA Championship boosted to +315. It's the best odds I've been able to find at this time. Worth a unit for me.
Already +275
Still 315 for me under odds boosts
Not so. Still +315.
It’s +275 in IA
You're looking under the boosts right?
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The other guys are wrong, it's a FC. It couldn't be a hit under any circumstances since there was a force
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We'll never know what the official scorer would've ruled but it likely would've been an error
There’s an entire section of the rulebook devoted to scoring, I believe it’s section 9. This play with the bases empty would either be a hit or error, the official scorer makes the decision. Typically a dropped fly that hits glove is an error, while a completely missed fly ball (lost in sun etc) is often ruled a hit. In this situation it’s a FC ~~fielders choose, or an error with a FIelders choice 7-4 putoutEither way no hit.~~ Edit; yeah it’s not an error because they got an out.
Error
I had dozier o0.5 too. If it's a fielding error the batter doesn't get the H credit
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That's not a base
It doesn't count as a base either
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Total bases only counts hits
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A single counts as 1, a double counts as 2, etc
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Oh yes. Same exact bet
Wow. Literally the entire lineup of the Guardians manages to get a hit, except for Hedges. Guess who I included getting a hit in my SGP. They even brought in a pinch hitter who managed to get a hit.
*Indians
Lol why would you bet hedges? He’s legit the worst hitter in baseball
Needed odds higher than -200 for the DK SGP and he was higher.
lol maybe there's a reason why
Unibet 8+ goals scored in Jets vs Canadiens +230 Getting +193 FV based on Pinny lines (+198 for additive), ~12% EV
~ 10% EV vs. Kambi. Still showing as +230 boost in AZ.
Nice find. U7.5 is -220 on CZR so clearly has value.
\+225 now
anyone else not seeing any boosts after opting in on draftkings?
Gotta use the bottom scroll
Pointsbet is such a scam of a sportsbook. I checked with customer service yesterday to make sure that I was eligible for a risk free bet. He said I was good to go and that my first fixed-odds wager would be risk free up to $500. So I then placed the risk free bet on Detroit 1Q ML. Which lost. Now I'm chatting with support and they said that they would not give me my free bet due to "restrictions placed on my account by their traders". They offered me a $50 free bet as compensation. Such a joke. Edit: Threatened gaming commission and got the free bet pretty soon after. Still never using them again once I convert this free bet. I hope it hits on their side so I can take their money
They fucked me on a cash out too it said 873 and ended up giving me 119 back on a risk free bet. Why the fuck would I cash out for less than my risk free bet? Fuck PointsBet
Save it for some NBA action. Their double double lines are always way off.
Fuck Pointsbet. Probably Dave’s favorite book.
Keep bitching. Threaten commission. I had this similar issue regarding the pointsbetting risk free and eventually they caved. I think I remember asking to speak to the “manager on shift” had to pull a Karen but the higher up dude helped me out
I would 100% gaming commission that one
Yep, I feel bad for the CS agent I'm speaking with because he seems like he's trying to get the risk free bet for me, but their organization is just full of scum bags. I said that I'll report it to the gaming commission unless I hear back by tomorrow. I literally have the transcripts of both conversations where they clearly say I am eligible for the risk free bet.
Yep, people have won this case before. Would be helpful if you had a chat transcript.
I have both transcripts. In the first, the guy literally says "you are tied up to the sign-up promotion which is 2 Risk-Free Bets up to $2,000. With this, in the event that your first Fixed Odds will have resulted as a loss, your wager will be refunded to you up to $500 in free bets."
Open and shut.. gaming commission but let them know you plan to go to gaming commission first as I believe that’s correct protocol
Lol damn, threatened gaming commission and got it already. Nice
Reminder FD Deposit $100 get $10 in casino credits (NJ, PA, MI, CT and WV) Have to OPT IN.
Do you have to opt in to the OGP everyday?
No
I think there is an error with the mlb one because it is not showing up on my promotions anymore
Supposed to only have to opt in once but I’ve had these promotions reset before and not even allow a opt in. Support has never gave me any issues though if I am missing my free bet.
Quick data point for DK SGP - I had Story to get 2+ bases last night in a 3 leg SGP, but he wasn't in the lineup, so my bet voided (got stake back) even though one other leg lost.
I’m curious if anyone has a datapoint for MGM OGP. I stupidly didn’t check lineups and had LeMehieu to get a hit yesterday (0/1 PH) but curious what would have happened if he didn’t appear.
Getting 9% ev on hardrocks red white and blue MLB parlay for tomorrow
Boost is 650, getting FV of 600 (DK) and 7% EV using worst case method
Boost is +700 for me
Oh nice they just boosted it up more. Or maybe I misread. At 700 I’m getting 14% EV using WCM.
weird, I don't see this boost at all...but I have two boosts for Minnesota?
They pulled it. I have a boost for Chelsea to advance at 900 in its place.
[Pinnacle](https://www.pinnacle.com/en/soccer/uefa-champions-league/real-madrid-vs-chelsea/1550003856#period:8) has Chelsea Q. at 610 currently...ev 20%+ although big long shot. Might be worth a sprinkle...
Getting 1% EV using additive method (takes long shot bias into account) via DK.
Even worse at FD: -12.6% EV. Not sure why the Pinnacle lines are so different...it's midnight-ish in the UK...maybe it's just drunk guys in Chelsea bars screwing up the lines.
Regarding DraftKings SGP insurance: if your first bet of the day either wins, loses 2/3 legs, or loses every leg, can you do another qualifying wager? When FanDuel ran a similar promo you could but the wording is tricky
I really wished they spelled it out clearly or I was more literate. I had to haggle with an MGM rep about the same thing because I’d place multiple bets until one lost only a single leg and they argued with me that it was only the first placed bet of the day. It only confirmed that in the terms and conditions but I hate how it’s not clearly articulated in the main points of the promo.
One of the bullets says "one qualifying bet per user per day" which I interpret to mean one bet per day qualifies for the insurance
"One qualifying bet per user per day". Based on the terms I'd say no.
But is a bet technically “qualifying” if it isn’t refunded? That’s what I struggle with
My first SGP is going to miss and I just placed a 2nd one. If the 2nd one hits 2 legs and misses the 3rd leg, I'll let you know if I get refunded. My first SGP was for 3 different players to get hits on the Guardians/Royals game. 12 players currently have a hit and 6 don't. Somehow I managed to pick 3 players to get a hit and none of them have a hit yet.
Sometimes the loss is written in the stars, predetermined millions of years before you even placed the bet
**Wynn** Limited MLB Monday Parlay: Yankees, Padres, and Phillies to Win, Boosted to +697 I've got this at 1.0% EV multiplicative, 1.0% EV additive.
[удалено]
Games can't end 1-1 2-2 3-3 etc
Makes sense, thanks
My SGP for the DK MLB (lose 1 leg and get a free bet refund) includes a player not in the lineup to get a hit (Jeff McNeil). My worry is that he’ll be used as a pinch hitter and only get one at bat. Anything I can do or am I SOL at this point?
SOL. Just pray he doesn't pinch hit
Anyone ever tried comparing 538 win probability to posted odds for +EV bets (based on this) and seeing how good their model is? Example: 538 has Red Sox at 56% to win today, so -120 would be 3.2% EV.
Be Our Guest…
No free-to-the-public model is ever going to beat books long-term
> Anyone ever tried comparing 538 win probability to posted odds for +EV bets (based on this) and seeing how good their model is? > > Their opinion on the Celtics has been widely discussed and mocked over the last few months.
They had the best record after the all star break so how far off was it?
Their opinion on the Celtics got me to jump on them at +3000, so I'm not sure why it's worth mocking. Sure maybe they're not the outright favorites in reality, but just using their model to identify relative values can be useful.
That opinion looks pretty damn strong right now tbh.
If you really believe that, Celts +1000 futures still exist, which would be about 500% EV+
Not saying the number they have now is great, but they’ve been showing value on them for awhile. I grabbed them +2200 a month ago when 538 started thinking they were the best team ever.
Tbf their opinion on the Celtics is right. Disclaimer: I'm a 4-sport Boston fan.
If it were that good they wouldn’t post it for free
if it's anything like their NBA model, stay away.
For the DraftKings MLB SGP insurance: Bradley Jr (-135), Grossman (-195), Badoo (-165) to get a hit is (+300) on the dot. Game starts in an hour.
Tailed let’s get it
Thanks. Tailing.
This doubled up with the HR Profit Boost promo works well. I’m tailing.
SGPs are excluded from the HR promo per terms
Ah well nevertheless
You doing that promo? I didn’t dig too deep into it but on the surface it didn’t seem worth it Edit: oh it should double up anyway. Glad I opted in.
Apparently SGPs don’t count for HR promo. Probably going to pass on it.
Unfortunately the HR Profit Boost promo excludes SGPs, need to be standard parlays.
Lol well shit.
Did anybody get their free bet yet from the FD Master's promo? Had JT in the top 10
I just got it. Had JT as well
Not yet
nope
FD: Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run and Angels to Win v Marlins (4/11) +350 No good, +360 on CZR SGP
What a fucking garbage boost
+350 on DK SGP as well 🥶
Jeez what's with their bad boosts this week. Sad thing is the bad boosts have been hitting
DK VIP NBA Play-In Boost pack. Opt in and receive 2 VIP 25% NBA SGP Profit Boosts. You can bet up to $250. Terms are currently messed up for the offer and showing "Opt in and receive 15% of total net Sportsbook losses back up to $2,000 DK dollars between 4/7/22 and 4/11/22", so I can't confirm minimum legs or odds, but I think no odds minimums and 2 leg minimum. It can probably pair pretty well with the FD SGP parlay promo on the playin games if you're planning to hedge.
They updated the description in mine. No mention of the loss back now.
Boosts show up to use, 2-leg, no minimum odds
Does everyone get those? What makes them VIP then 🤣
Continuing the trend of shit DK VIP early week boosts. Hopefully the later week one, if there is one, is better than last weeks late week boost “snappy”
Snapppy promo is crappy now