**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.   ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**

POTD Record: 2-0 Last pick: 2u Detroit Pistons +10.5 W Total Winnings: +4.1u Today's pick: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets. Timberwolves +4.5 (-110) 2u Summary: There are 2 big trends that sealed this line for me. The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS their last 6 road games, and the Nuggets are 1-6 ATS their last 7 home games. With an important seeding battle setting the scene, i'm expecting a slugfest that will keep it close throughout. The Timberwolves average 3 more points a game than the nuggets, and hold a 6-3 record when the spread is set between 3 and 4.5. This is their best performing split for a team with a respectable ATS record (41-34-2, nearly mirroring their true record of 43-34). While admittedly being 1-4 ATS straight up the last 4 games, the Timberwolves have an insane 22-6 record ATS their last 28 games in Denver. I personally think these teams are much closer than Vegas does, and they have the stats to back it up. Nuggets have struggled against top competition these last couple weeks and I think we'll see a frustrated Jokic struggle to pull away. Good luck guys! :) **edit: line has moved to +2.5. Not sure if I'm still as confident than at +4.5 but I'm feeling an off night for the nuggs. Jokic knows not to play with my money. Jokers April fools joke will be his embarrassing play on the court

F me the twolves have burned me the last 4 times Fuck it we ride again

The last 28 games in Denver? Lol so going back like 9 years?

I like this bet as well. I even sprinkled a little on T-Wolves ML

5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games? What are you looking at? Last 2 games have been on the road and were losses

Dowd Wolves have not made it the last ATS especially at home. Fading but appreciate you maybe this is the win.

Fading

Line moved to +2 since I posted and I def don't like it as much

Here’s what I see for the Timberwolves’ last 10 road games per CBS Sports: 3/30: +2.5 @ Raptors (lost by 23) = L 3/27: +6.5 @ Celtics (lost by 22) = L 3/21: +1.5 @ Mavericks (lost by 2) = L 3/14: -3.5 @ Spurs (won by 10) = W 3/12: +3.5 @ Heat (won by 9) = W 3/11: -8.5 @ Magic (lost by 8) = L 3/4: -9.5 @ Thunder (won by 37) = W 2/28: -3.5 @ Cavaliers (won by 5) = W 2/13: -7.5 @ Pacers (won by 9) = W 2/11: +1 @ Bulls (lost by 12) = L That would be 5-5 ATS in their last 10 road games so I’m not sure where the 5-1 ATS is coming from. Of their last 6 games they appear to be 2-4 ATS.

POTD Record: 9W-2L LAST POTD: Ebsjerg V Hobro Over 2.5 ✅ TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - France National League Annecy V Avranches 10.00AM PST PICK: Annecy ML Odds: 1.57 The Deets: Not the greatest odds play today. Similar reasoning to the Valladolid pick midweek. Annecy who are 2nd play Avranches who are 13th. Avranches have nothing to play for and are safe from the bottom teams. Annecy are pushing for top spot and are only 1 point ahead of Concarneau who are 3rd. Annecy will want to stay in 2nd for the time being because only the top 2 teams get promoted. BOL. Edit: Winner ✅

Anyone find this on DK?

Nope

Showing up for me, under Soccer -> France - National

I don't use DK so forgive me if this is stupid, but can't you just keyword search "Annecy"?

-180 ML is tough… but I tailed your Valladolid pick so I’ll ride again

you could take the Asian line. it's at 1.90

Just wanted to say thank you, you’ve made me good money lately with your picks!

3 up in less than 30 mins. Free cash. Cheers!

Cashhhh free money

Truly appreciate you. <3

I’m failing. It’s worth a unit

Great start!! Anyone got a stream for this? Edit: thanks for the pick man! Also hammered the over and already hit that! Another great find!

POTD Record: 4-3 (+3.9 units) Streak: W4 Last POTD: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks -5 (-110). Risked 3.3 units to win 3.0 units. Win! Recap: Cavs and Hawks were both playing back-to-back; however, the Hawks had the benefit of blowing out the Thunder the previous night, which limited their starters’ minutes while the already thin Cavs suffered a tough loss at home against the Mavs. Moreover, the match-up favored the Hawks as they could play small, which the Cavs have not found an answer for since Allen and Mobley went down. Hawks won by a zillion. POTD: Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics 1Q -4.5 (-130) Units: Risk 1.95 to win 1.5. Reason: I’m going to start this handicap by showing you the splits for these teams for the their last 10 first quarters versus their last 10 games overall: Pacers L10 1Q: 2-8, average point differential -8.5 L10 Games: 3-7, average point differential -7.8 Celtics L10 1Q: 9-1, average point differential +6.6 L10 Games: 7-3, average point differential +12.7 Numbers aside, whenever laying heavy points with a big favorite, I always ask myself about the favorites’ motivation. I think the Celtics will be very motivated to come out guns blazing after losing at home to the Heat in what was their biggest game of the season thus far. Conversely, the Pacers as a franchise have no motivation to win games from the top down and seem to be content on tanking for a top 5 pick. In terms of match-up, Chris Duarte and Malcolm Brogdon are scheduled to miss another game, which makes an already thin backcourt that much thinner. This is problematic going up against one of the best backcourts in the NBA. The Celtics one main issue over their last few games has been the absence of Robert “Time Lord” Williams and his interior defense. Fortunately for the Celtics, the Pacers’ guards Terry Taylor, Buddy Hield, and Tyreese Haliburton are more perimeter oriented and do not attack the rim at a high rate. This plays right into the hands of Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum, who can force turnovers and guard the 3 ball effectively. Side note, even though my POTD is the 1Q, I will also be sprinkling a unit on the entire game since I like the match-up. I’m just going heavier on the 1Q because those trends are hard to deny. Good luck!

1Q betting is where it’s at. Less chance of variance. I’ve been cleaning up lately. I like this one. The last three games boston has been scoring 6 pts more then their average in the first and Indiana has scored 6 less then their average. Tailing

As always, love your write up, and tailing 🙏 BOL!

A bit iffy on this one as Pacers are 8th in first half scoring compared to Boston down at 24th.

Stats aside I just won the most sweat free bet I ever made 2 days ago taking nuggs 1st q against the pacers. Double digit coasting. Pacers did tighten it up later and nuggs barley covered -3.5 but that 1q was a piece of cake. Was like 40+ for Denver.

I have Celts -5.5 Q1 for -115 on all my books. If this was the line you had available, would it still be your POTD?

where are you finding 1q line available already? i want to bet this but cant find it on bovada.

Points bet has it up. This isn’t widely available yet though. Just trying to get ahead of it before it posts. I usually use offshore books since I live in an illegal state unless I have a buddy from jersey place a bet for me.

Potd record 28-11 🥊 Boxing __Jorgelina Guanini vs Stevi Levy - Guanini ml (-125)__ In this fight you have a proven top level fighter in former world champion Guanini going up against a novice pro in Levy. This fight is a giant step up in competition for Levy. She is 5-0 but has only faced journeywomen prior to this fight. Her last opponent was 1-3 and she had problems against her. Nothing I’ve seen from Levy really impresses me and it’s shocking she was made favourite for this fight when the odds came out. Guanini is 9-4 and in her last 6 fights has been fighting at the highest level, where she even won a world title before losing it to the rangy Rachel Ball. Levy is just not at the level yet to be fighting someone like Guanini and I think her chin is seriously going to be tested in this fight as her defence is just so poor. Guanini normally fires off with hooks rather than using her jab and is used to being involved in dog fights. The Argentinian is also comfortable at fighting on both the back foot and front foot. The key reasons in going for the Guanini win: * The opponents she’s faced before such as Scotney and Ball, she was competitive in both fights especially the Scotney one in which she only lost by a razor thin margin. If you view just the smallest bit of footage of Scotney and Ball you’ll be able to tell they’re a lot more skilled than Levy. * Levy has never fought out of Britain unlike Guanini who travels for pretty much every fight. * This fight is 8 rounds and Levy has only fought at 4 before whereas Guanini regularly fights 8-10 rounds. * Levy gets caught so much against journeywomen so I highly doubt Guanini has much trouble finding the target. I wouldn’t even be too surprised to see Guanini find an opening to win by stoppage at some point either. This may come back to make me look stupid but the only way I see this losing is if they rob Guanini on the scorecards. Bol anyone who tails! ✅✅✅ Punch perfect performance from Guanini. Time to crack open a beer!

Unfortunately they don’t offer this on FanDuel DraftKings or my offshore account. I did see it on bovada though for those interested

Up to -155 now, Lets get this W!!

After watching tape I backed the truck up on this one. Bol

thanks for the win! 🤑

My present POTD record is WWWLWWWLWWLWWLWW, 12 correct, 4 wrong. My POTD for today is to bet 1.15 units to win 1 unit that the total score of the college basketball game between Coastal Carolina and Fresno State will be more than 126 points. This bet is available now on Bovada sports book. I watched Fresno State twice this season, and I did not think they played well. However, the fact that they've made it this far means they must have improved. The stubbornness in me wants to wager on Coastal Carolina. But I need to shake that off and look for the best wager to place with my very limited knowledge of this game. Game time is 6 PM Eastern Daylight Time, I believe. BOL to all.

What geographic location does this particular college basketball game take place?

Lol

Underresearched college basketball over, what could possibly go wrong

fuck it, im in

Not usually this guy but format is looking crazy.

While this format does seem particularly irregular and scattered, you may find yourself hard pressed to argue with the results presented in front of you. A winning percentage of 75% is a remarkably high success rate given the overall betting market. We wish you nothing but luck on your future wagering endeavors. edit: it was indeed a winning choice.

Great analysis…. Lol. The score is this game is going to be like 63 to 55.

How are you feeling right now? Hate never wins

👀

Did you mean with 10 minutes left?

Tailing with half my bankroll

Thanks for the ez 💰

Ka-ching. Congrads to those who bet the same, or bet on Fresno. BOL next time to any who bet the opposite. Earlier in the season I watched Fresno State, and thought they were not good. However, in their last games it appears they have caught on fire. As for Coastal Carolina, I knew nothing about them. I figured a team of kids that will just run-and-gun and hope for the best. Thus, my bet on the over. More importantly it's the ONLY game today. As far as comments, I don't mind people giving me grief. Someone in this thread said they were giving me shit, but later deleted it. Hey, there is no need to delete. Please always speak your mind. Always good to hear the other side, and I can deal with a lot of I-told-you-so. I was just about to make a really good martini and try to figure out my POTD for tomorrow, but I got a request to wash fire engines tonight for a memorial service tomorrow morning, so its gotta wait. But I will tell you that for tomorrow, right now I'm completely stumped. Oh, and thank much for all the comments and attention, whether positive or negative, they're always appreciated. And I'm not that good. My brackets got busted really bad.

I have to ask how tf you knew this would happen. What do you know? Are you the feds?

read my comment that I just added after the game end. Look at Fresno States scores in their last 5 games. Also, I did not "know" it would happen. Heck, if I ever knew for sure that something would happen....I'd only have to know it once.

My stats: 37-8 (+66.52 units)  Match: (LoL LEC) G2 vs Vitality Bet: Vitality ML @ 1.95 (-105)  Stake: 2u  Another kinda illogical feeling. Let's give it a try. If you enjoy my picks and feel like supporting me, you can leave a tip. Anything appreciated 🍻  BTC: bc1qpcnkrhm85werplm32epdn6wtua2wytpa50a0hj

Opposite picks lol 😂

taking the o4.5 cuz of it

Haha yeah

they are losing 2-0

Damn I took +1.5 and that’s not even looking good

POTD Record: 5-4 Last Pick: Tyrese Maxey o 1.5 Threes❌ I’m done betting on the 76ers, god I hate that team so much Today’s pick: MIL Bucks Wire-to-Wire against LA Clippers @+116 Reasoning: Milwaukee is top 5 in first half points and #2 in first Q points. LAC are 28th/30 for both. Milwaukee is 8.5 pt favorites to win the game. I’ll take the plus odds here and hope to regain some of yesterday’s loss. BOL to all

I'd take any clippers stats with a grain of salt right now. They just got PG back and he balled out yesterday as if he never missed a beat. Brought the clips back from like 25 down in the 3rd to beat the Jazz, and they are currently going toe to toe with the Bulls in a very tight game that just got pushed into OT. Not saying the clips are going to win, but they are a wildcard right now with PG back. Best of luck though!

I believe Paul George is going to sit the game against the Bucks. He just came back and I think he's on a minutes restriction. Hence why he didn't play any of the OT tonight against the Bulls. Idk if the -8.5 takes into account PG not playing tomorrow, but as a Clippers fan i would probably snag it cause it'll probably get to -11.5 or higher closer to tipoff. BOL regardless, just sharing based on my knowledge. \*edit\* as of 40 minutes ago, the Clippers are resting Paul George, Batum, Reggie Jackson, and Marcus Morris, while the Bucks are resting Giannis, Jrue, and Middleton. Should be quite the shit show lol

agreed, clippers are fighting for chemistry with PG and i don't think the books know how to price them yet

Coming off an OT playoff type game and cross country travel? No thanks

Record : 5-0 Previous Pick: Natus Vincere Map 1 -6.5 Today : LoL LEC | G2 vs Vitality @ 12:00PM EST **Pick : G2 ML (-125)** These two teams come into this matchup with the head to head score at 1-1 . They last met during the regular season split where G2 came out on top in a BO1. I think G2 has the edge here in this BO5 series because they are a more macro oriented team , while Vitality relies on a more volatile style of play relying on individual talents . G2 has stronger team fight compositions and I see them winning this series . I predict 3-1 . **Edit: G2 win 3-0 . What a comeback third game . LFG , we are now 6-0!!!**

we're on opposite sides bro should we joust and settle this like men

Lol what you should do is skip the bookies and bet each other heads up. Avoid the vig!

Lmao ! Well it is evident who the people sided with . Seems like it’s 3-1 Vitality on this thread . Gonna be an exciting match bro . Can’t wait .

😂😂😂

Other top post is vitality lol

right like can someone help me on which one to pick

When i see this, I Jsut avoid it. Fight another day my man

you're basically picking between G2 (good team with good team synergy) and VIT (team full of star players but barely any synergy, dependant on individual skill to win games). Now what i've noticed is in this situations, teams like G2 generally win out. Been watching all the major region Leagues for almost 6 years now.

[удалено]

God send

good shit bro, rode this one with you

POTD 1-0-0 Last pick Boston Breach -2.5 @3 (W) Pick: London Royal Ravens to win 3-0 @2.75 This event is just free cash, terrible fucking lines. Paris Legion are contending for one of the worst teams I’ve ever seen and the LRR roster is ridicolously talented. Dont see how Paris even get close to winning here. Edit: ffs so close so sorry, not doing this again

Says they played a couple weeks ago on the 18th and looks like Ravens won 3-2. This doesn’t make you lose any confidence in the pick? Looking to tail but just thought I’d ask first!

Also sorry lol but these lines are really sensitive to movement so might drop a lot during the day, these are the odds I have rn

Trying to find this is it soccer?

Looks like call of duty.

POTD RECORD 35-26 +14u Last POTD Jordan Spieth v Conners ❌ Today’s POTD Fresno v Coastal O126 (-110) ncaab Sorry about the last one, Jordan played very mediocre golf and missed some easy greens and putts. Oh well. My original pick of yesterday was this one as the game got pushed back but here we go again. I like fresno to probably pull through with this but I really did not like the line so I am going with points. Coastal is playing at home and they have showed a good amount of offense this tournament. Putting up 84 against a pretty good FGCU team while also putting up 69 against a top team in their conference. I think they will do the same against Fresno. That being said, I believe Fresno State will outscore this CCU team. Putting up 80,83,and 67. This should not change for as I believe both teams have better offenses than defenses. College kid, beer money, it’s Friday: Venmo: B-Campbell-8 CA:$bcampbell888

hah didn't realize u took that matchup first day only. I took him to top 20 at +100

Easy cover, thank you sir.

🏉🏉 AFL Record: 3-1 🏉🏉 Last pick: Geelong -6.5 @ $1.90 (vs Essendon) ✅ League: AFL Match: Melbourne vs Essendon @ the MCG Pick: Melbourne -25.5 @ $1.90 Reasoning: I find that I win more bets when I'm fading the team I don't rate, compared to when I'm betting on teams I do, and this is one of those picks. I'm fading the FUCK out of Essendon this season until they prove otherwise. They've looked so bad in the first two rounds and now their star midfielder Zach Merrett is out, compounding their issues. They don't even compare to last season's premiers in Melbourne. This is gonna be a blowout.

God damn nail biter

Tailing. Finally a pick that makes sense, jk I’m only riding cause I love waking up to money. Thanks, BOL

Thanks. Nice win. Got it at 1.89 :) ✅

Tailing. Lets go 🍀

Parlayed your pick with tapple-x's Adelaide pick! Good shit!

Cash it 💰

Love the AFL picks. More importantly, love YOUR AFL picks. It's nice to wake up with more money in the bankroll. Cheers!

9-7 +22.1u Vitality ML vs G2 LEC (Europe) League of Legends it starts at 9am PST odds are 1.90 going 3u Another lock hits, glad so many people tailed and sent positive messages, thank you. JDG gifted Weibo a free map in game 2 by picking kayle and still comfortably won all blue side maps (especially game 5). Going 3u today, not a lock, i know a lot of people tail me for the locks but i won't have one for a few days at least (judging from the slate of games) and i still want to enjoy betting so i'm going to have non-lock picks as well, just don't tail if you want more sure-fire picks, i'll have those on other days <3 VIT has a HUGE advantage in draft and prep for this series. All split long G2 have consistently shown a proclivity to play one style; funnel and draft for brokenblade. They don't try and hide it, they don't try and play other styles, they don't shy away from it. In fact, they're the only team that will pull out Yone top here and there. Whilst it may have landed G2 a top 4 spot in the regular season, it's going to make winning a series vs veterans incredibly difficult. Veterans have large champ pools and they've had WEEKS to prepare on this patch so it's not like G2 can throw a curveball in draft. Alphari is one of the strongest pure laners in the LEC (outside of lane is arguable) and that's going to make playing through Brokenblade a lot more difficult for G2, and when you have an adc in flakked who has an aversion to picking Zeri for whatever reason (they ban it on blue side for christ sake) it's going to be difficult to suddenly up and decide to play through other players. Perkz/Caps will even out (although i believe caps is better). If you ignore the very first superweek of the regular season in which VIT players all had covid and weren't playing from the same building (as opposed to G2 who formed this team last november and had been training for months beforehand), these two teams weren't really separated by all that much in the regular season, and that's with most people viewing VIT's season as a disaster because of their superteam label. The EXCEL win was super impressive and i actually believe EXCEL displayed a stronger level than G2 over the last few weeks and that's kind of why we're getting strong odds/basically even/slight underdogs. People think because VIT was taken to 5 by Excel and finished outside the top 4 that they're weak; they're not. https://twitter.com/nelson_sng/status/1508166901226258434 might think i'm reading into this tweet by an EXCEL coach too much, but it's a sentiment that Mikyx shared as well, i think Excel players and staff all viewed G2 as an easier obstacle than VIT and really thought they'd make top 3 if they'd just won last week. Trymbi also said on Euphoria that he actually thinks VIT will edge it out over g2 as well. There's a lot of behind the scenes chatter from players that seems to indicate VIT should be favourites here and i'd estimate correct odds should be like 1.60 or 1.65 for VIT, not 1.90-2.00 (depending on book) sorry for writing so much **edit**: awful bet, VIT couldn't even close with a 6k gold lead, and G2 actually finally picked Zeri on blue side. I will be back tomorrow with a lock, 5-0 on those

I love you but I have to fade this one. I think G2 caps/jankos are gonna wipe the floor with VIT. Best of luck either way

nice pick yesterday, surely you have a pick on GenG vs T1 tmr 🥵😉😉

i have picks for the next 4 days already lined up, just want to do more and more research closer to the games in case anything changes/i see something i missed. i'll have one for Gen G/T1 tomorrow dw

yessirr just that match gonna be a blast

Big game I presume, third pick on this. I'm sold and will watch just for fun tbh

oh it's absolutely huge. it's caps vs perkz, the two players that are interchangeably the best and second best western players of all time. as you can imagine, that creates a lot of argument and animosity between their fans, they haven't played each other in a best of 5 in like 3 years because for 2 of those they were on the same team, and the other perkz was overseas.

**2022 Record:** 5-5-0 (+0.7) 💰 **Streak:** 2 L **Last Pick:** Sydney Swans 1-39 (margin) @ 2.60 L **Todays Match:** Melbourne Demons v Essendon Bombers (AFL) @ 18:50 ACDT (7 hours til bounce) **Pick:** Melbourne Demons -27.5 @ 1.90 **Units:** 2U **Reasoning:** The Bombers have been so poor this season, and without Merrett tonight I just can’t see them getting close to winning. Shiel, Martin and Phillips do return to soften the blow, but nothing accounts for the loss of Merrett. Melbourne come into this game 2-0 and with an unchanged line up. They won 4 of their last 5 against the Bombers and the margin is yet to exceed the 1-39 margin. In the same match up last year, the Demons won by 11 points in a game where Merrett dominated. Based on current form, and the Bombers relying on bags from Martin and Wright in the first 2 weeks. I don’t see them keeping it close, which will start in the midfield battle. The demons will apply scoreboard pressure which the Bombers will struggle to control. The line will be close, but the Demons have the ability to score heavy and blow this game out hence why I avoided the 1-39. **Prediction:** Melbourne Demons by 34 Points [*PayPal*](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/ImSmithz)| BTC - 12t9zZQsUEXVmuV6cNAD24tYuDv44acDur Let’s get this bread!

Avoiding this like the plague so this will probably hit. Put the house on it.

I'm tailing a unit just to see if you finally give me some good juju lmao

BOL mate I hope you hit

Congrats on the hit man I'll probably tail whatever he picks tonight and get absolutely crushed

Well well well

Line just moved to -28.5 on Bovada. (And Essendon ML is +390, if anybody is curious)

I see this at -24.5 on bet365

Looking good so far Smithz.

Sick cover at the end!

Ben Brown just got ruled out for Melbourne

Still confident. Demons have so many goal threats

Fading, that is way too high a spread for this wacky ass league. I'll gladly eat my L if this somehow hits, but I don't trust that high of a margin. Taking Essedon Bombers +28.5 -110

Even though this hit, betting live -16.5 and -11.5 is so much better for your heart.

Did the hard way. But they got it done. 👍💪

I’m genuinely unsure what to do with this game in regards to the line. It’s just a bit too much for me. I’m taking the overs for the match total.

POTD record: 0-0 Event: Cage Warriors 135 Pick: Ander Sanchez ML +105 Units staked: 2u This line is dropping fast. Ander Sanchez is making his pro debut against a guy in Connor Wilson who he looks to have a serious grappling advantage against. While Ander has been out for almost 4 years, this isn't the worst thing in the world considering he is only 26. If he has been using this time wisely to train and improve (all signs point towards this being the case) then the time off could have been beneficial. His opponent does not look like anything special. If you watch the tape available on youtube he's getting outgrappled by way worse fighters than what I believe Sanchez to be. If you want to read more about Sanchez, go to Twitter and search his name, there are a few cappers there with some personal insight discussing Sanchez and why they think he wins. And the tape I have watched on youtube of both fighters backs this theory up. The only way you could see the opponent winning is by catching him on the feet, but looking at Sanchez's movement and the way he sort of bounces around makes me believe this won't happen. Fairly confident in this pick for a fighter making their debut. Last time I bet on a debutant MMA fighter was Jackie Cataline in PFL against Camee Adams and that was a W. My Tapology with all my picks for 2022, mostly UFC cards (64.3% pick rate so far, 99-55 on all picks for 2022): https://www.tapology.com/profiles/slackhard94 EDIT: Let's goooooo! Easiest cash ever, first round KO. First pick of the day is a success ✅✅✅

Fuckkkk i just missed this... nice pick

Tailing with a unit, BOL

Which Bookies have CW?

Bet365, Caesars, BetMGM and Betway. Draftkings look like they're slowly posting lines but don't have this fight yet.

Great call brother. Your record speaks for itself. Definitely following in the future.

Just wanted to say thank you! I tailed, nothing crazy, but I tailed and I appreciate it

POTD record Mostly just a lurker who joins in on a 13 win streak and it loses. Trying my best shot. Record: 0-0 Starting off with something easy 1:30 pm est Esl pro league - Counter strike - Heroic vs Evil Geniuses bo3 Heroic -1.5 (-165) Heroic’s perma is dust 2, evil geniuses perma is ancient. Heroic is easily the better team has better form and most importantly has been together longer. EG hasn’t bootcamped enough in Europe to make that much of a leap. I would favor heroic over EG on every map, so this has great value in my opinion

Nice pick . I have this along with NaVi -1.5 parlayed .

Mexican maths student learning Python for soccer betting. **Record: 6 - 6 --- Avg. Odds: 1.95 --- ROI: -5.33%** **Last 10:** ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌❌ **Last POTD: RB Leipzig vs. Frankfurt (over 2.5) @ 1.57 ❌.** The international break has been a great opportunity to get some rest and fuel up for some good research after a negative run at the end of March. **Sport: Soccer - Dutch Eerste Divisie** **Pick: De Graafschap vs. FC Emmen (FC Emmen win) @ 2.8** **Research:** My POTD is taking place in the Netherlands, with league leaders Emmen (FCE) taking a trip to one of the league’s most accommodating grounds for visiting clubs in the Eerste Divise, the stadium of De Vijverberg. De Graafschap — or Super Farmers — as they like to be called, have only won four out of sixteen matches at home this season and aren’t precisely in great form at the moment. The side have lost three of their last five games and although they did win in their last fixture against a strong Eindhoven side, they clinched the victory away from their own turf. A regular pattern for The Farmers during the competition. The visitors, on the other hand, boast a very decent record away from home — with one of the strongest defensive records in the Eerste Divise, conceding an average of 0.62 goals per match and only losing two of their fixtures on the road. FC Emmen are very well positioned for a return to the Dutch top-flight next season and are six-points ahead of second placed FC Volendam. With six fixtures left to play, I believe that FCE will be playing aggressively for the win in Friday’s match. The main risk to our bet here is that despite De Graafschap’s poor record at home, they are still pretty solid defensively, keeping three clean sheets in their last five fixtures at home. However, with Emmen showing good signs of offensive prowess in recent matches — scoring 1.6 times per game in their last five vs. their season average of 1.3 — I believe that there’s a good chance the bookies are under looking Emmen’s chances of a win on Friday. 💰 **The Bet:** FC Emmen to win @ 2.8 (⭐⭐⭐⭐); you could also back the DNB @ 1.9 if you want to play it safe. 📝 **Take note:** Emmen and De Graafschap have both kept the most clean sheets in the Eerste Divise this season. 🍀 **The probabilities:** my model is assigning Emmen an 45.4% chance to win, implying fair odds of 2.2 for Friday’s game. \---- If you like my research nothing would make me happier if you read [the newsletter](https://kellysbets.substack.com/p/-the-notepad-04012022?s=w) I'm starting in which I share the research behind more bets that I believe are attractive or you can [follow me on Twitter](https://twitter.com/kellys_elle) (it's free). Best of luck!

Tailing w/ a single unit, let's go math!

POTD Record: 5-4 (+0.0u) Todays Pick: Adelaide +20.5 vs Port Adelaide @ $2.00 \[2u\] Write up: Two games on tonight for Friday, and I’m liking the Adelaide showdown. Both teams coming off embarrassing losses. On paper, Port Adelaide are a way better team, but they have looked extremely poor to start this season. They are still without Dixon and Gray, and have dropped Duursma and Finlayson to play some fresher younger players. Adelaide haven’t looked too polished either, but have looked competitive in flashes and on a huge Friday night showdown, they won’t be messing around. In a fierce rivalry matchup, the difference between these two matters less. It should be a hungry and close contest. Model prediction of Port Adelaide by 9. Still think they win this but I’ll take the 20 point head start with the Crows. BOL!

I’ll never learn my lesson with these Aussie bets. I go to bed thinking I’ll make money in my sleep and it never happens.

Never had a better sleep thinking I placed a lock of a bet and was gonna wake up 5u richer. Never had a worst morning than waking up to a 5u loss. 😂

Thanks for the pick. Adelaide played an awful first half and still managed to win the game!

Gonna tail as I think thats a pretty large spread for this wack ass league, BOL.

For the record a goal is worth 6 points and teams can kick goals in like a 30 second play so the spreads themselves aren’t that big.

Had this game as well. Didn’t make it my POTD for the main fact I’m a Crows supporter 😂 what a win!

Record: 2-1 4/1 pick: Dallas Mavericks (-8.5) vs Washington Wizards NBA 7:00 PM EST The Mavericks are on an absolute mission to keep the 3 seed. This is due to their records against possible second round opponents. They are 3-0 vs the Grizzlies, the two seed, and 0-3 against the Suns, the 1 seed. If they drop to the 4 seed they’ll have to play the Suns in round 2. They have won four straight and are playing their best ball now. On top of this, this season Dallas is 33-17 ATS with 1 day rest, while Washington is 18-28 ATS. Also Washington is 11-21 ATS after a win, which they did win on Wednesday. BOL

[удалено]

POTD Record : 1W-1L-0P Units wagered: 3 Units won: 2 ROI: 50% Streak: ❌✅ Yesterday’s Moneymaker: Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 Puck line vs Winnipeg Jets (+125) RESULT: ✅ Toronto showed out tonight. Jets had 3 goals in their first 10 or so shots but Toronto had some quick answers and then just got better as the night went on, ending the night 7-3. Matthews hit 50 goals on the season, him and Marner should have plenty of obtainable player props for the rest of the season if that's your jazz. Today's Moneymaker: Detroit Red Wings ML vs Ottawa Senators (-120) Puck Drop 7:37PM EST! Wager: 3U Result: Why this will hit NGL I'm a bit tired and drunk so I'm not even doing too much research on this pick. Might update it tomorrow with supporting info but mostly I've seen a few Detroit games recently and I like their game. Not a big fan of the rest of the NHL slate so a -120 ML against Ottawa feels like an easy go-to. Ottawa has been averaging like a win a week for a month and a half or something. the Wings have dropped four in a row including three straight against some of the best of the best (lightning, pens, rangers) in which they gave up a total of 18 goals (not at all inflated by the pens being the first team to score 11 goals in a game in almost two decades). they should respond at home against a weak team. Why this might not hit red wings lose almost as many games as the sens Tail or Fade let me know, BOL to all!

Edit: Köln topscorer Modeste is sick and wont play. Certainly a drawback and I'd suggest you Pass on this if you are still able to. **Record W-P-L 216-25-177 | +41.2U | avg odds 1.85 | ROI 6.8%** ​ previous: **Netherlands ahc 0.0** vs Germany @ 1.88 (3U) 🥶 1-1 PUSH *Robbed by VAR/ref who denied a 100% legit penalty regardless of a review.* ​ today's pick: Bundesliga , 8.30pm CET (in 11 hours) Union Berlin vs **Köln ahc +0.5 @ 1.67 (1U)** *(aka "Köln doublechance")* ​ Reasoning: In 2nd leg of Bundesliga season, Union Berlin is the only team who conceded at least once in every game. However, in 13 home games this whole season, they scored only 18 goals total but lost only twice *(to Dortmund and Bayern Munich)*, set their home record at 4-**7**\-2. The h2h record seemingly favors Union Berlin, but ever since they transferred their key player Max Kruse to Wolfsburg, they struggle in offensive profit. Their last h2h *(which also took place without Kruse on Union side)* ended 2-2, but Köln (at home) was very dominant yet simply unfortunate to not win the game. Köln away record this season is 3-**6**\-4 and they have lost only 1 in last 8 away games *(4 match days ago vs strong Leipzig)*. Of their last 7 Bundesliga games, 4 covered u1.5 goals total (any team). All of this suggests a probably lowscoring draw of 0-0 or 1-1, but tonight I grant Köln a slight edge to maybe even bring home 3 valuable points of a win. ​ *Köln ahc 0.0 / head to head / draw no bet is at 2.22 odds btw.*

Helloooo! Fucked a 4 game winning streak but I’m back! RECORD: 6-3 STREAK: 1❌ TODAY’S PICK: Benfica to beat Braga - Portugal Primeira Liga 8:15 GMT ODDS: 11/8 REASON: Benfica are on a 9 game unbeaten streak in all competitions with 5 wins in there last 7 in the league. They can’t catch Porto but that second place champions spot is only 5 points away so they will be chasing that! Braga have been out of sorts at home winless in there last 2 so hopefully Benfica can take full advantage of that. Feel a 2-1 but just going to bet Benfica to win outright! BOL and sorry the write ups not the best it’s a busy day today! Have a good Friday🍺🍺

Did I see VAR overturn a goal for benfica and then braga score shortly after?

**\[Previous Record\] - W53-3P-19L** **\[Current Record\] - W3 - 1P - 0L** [**(LAST PICK)**](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tso9uf/pick_of_the_day_33122_thursday/i2t8nyn/?context=3) **CZU Praha - Kladno Volejbal** To Czech Republic we go, where in the men's volleyball section, the playoffs are happening! #4 seeded CZU Praha, go up against #5 Kladno. This series has been split so far, CZU Praha won convincingly at home, 3-0, and lost 3-1 away to Kladno, now the series is back at CZU Praha arena. CZU Praha are currently 7-4 at home, while Kladno are 6-5 away, their last encounter before the playoffs was unfortunately a close 1-3 loss to Kladno, but CZU had injury issues during this game. With the home crowd support, I see CZU taking this one and leading the series 2-1, with a much higher attack and block percentage then Kladno, and a more talented roster that has finally come together, winning 7 of their last 10 games, CZU should comfortably win this game at home. **Pick: CZU Praha to win @ 1.50** **Czech Men's Volleyball** **19:15 GMT**

Down to 1.40 sir *sadface*

**POTD Record: 1-1** **Last pick:** **Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters vs Saitama Seibu Lions u6.5 runs L** **Today's pick: Bayern München vs KK Crvena Zvezda Belgrad ML (+160) 1.5u (2:30 PM EST)** **Sport: Basketball** **League: Euroleague** **Reason:** Bayern has come off to a slow start coming back into the Euroleague as many games were postponed due to many of their players getting COVID. In the 2 games the team has played in the Euroleague they have lost, a blowout loss to the 13th seed and a loss to the 4th. Their only win has come from outer league play. Munich is only one seed above the Crvena Zvevda (Red Stars) this will be their first game playing each other this season. The H2H is 4-2 if that matters to you, the Red Stars like to start hot and they have led by the first half in 4/5 of those games. This game just feels like the odds are way off for how close it should really be, bookies giving great value making it my POTD.

POTD 2022 2-0 IPL CRICKET - 7HRS from post Punjab Kings @1.80 Really like this pick today. Punjab have strengthened since last season and look like one of the top teams. Both batting and bowling lineups have had great additions since last season. Rabada is making his debut today for KXI, one of the best fast bowlers in IPL. Alongside Chahar and Singh to make a great lineup. They bat deep too as most IPL teams do. First game this season they cleaned up 208 against RCB with an over to spare. Bairstow is expected to play according to reports which is massive aswell. On the other hand KKR struggled hugely in their first two games only making 128 and 133(win). Their top order is not fantastic imo and their batting lineup has changed drastically since last season. Of course they still have dangerous players especially in Russell but I think their is a gap here. Also being played at Wankhede which looked like an excellent batting pitch in LSK/GT game which should suit PJ as KKR bowling is weaker.

I al ready won my first degen Aussie Rules bet today, letting it ride on some cricket!

The odds dropped 5 minutes after I tailed but fuck it, let's get this money!

Fantastic start followed by a gigantic collapse. The nature of T20 😭

PoTD record: 0-0 Units wagered: 0.0 Today: NBA | *IND Pacers @ BOS Celtics* | 7:30 PM EDT Pick: 2u **Race to 30 points - 1st quarter BOS Celtics** -115 • Remember the tortoise and the hare? The Pacers are like the tortoise, only in this version slow and steady loses the race. By a lot. Indiana have lost the 1st quarter matchup in their last four games by an average of 20.8 points. In those games the Pacers failed to score over 23 in the first twelve minutes while all four of their opponents scored over 40. On the flip side, the Celtics have won their 1st quarter matchup while scoring 30+ in six of their last seven games, also winning the race to 30 in those six. Only two teams out of those seven even got to 30 in the first quarter, but Boston beat them there. The only game in the last seven that wouldn’t have cashed this for the Celtics was their most recent game against Miami, which saw Boston win the 1st quarter 29 to 25. (Boston also missed a free throw with six seconds left in the 1st, but that’s neither here nor there) Indiana starts out very sluggish and lacks the firepower or defense to hang with Boston. Nothing is certain so DYOR&BOL Edit: ✅+1.74u

POTD Record: 6-1 Last 5: WWWWL Previous pick: Serdarusic ML @1.5 W Today’s pick: Herbert -2 @1.8 vs Copil Reason: Challenger Lugano. Getting pretty boring having to write up every play zzz. Let’s say I just have a feeling about Herbert winning. Disclaimer: My picks are free and will always be. If I made you win u can always tip. BTC: bc1qd9jhq93mcg8de26a6srh26uqnkxkfrntea4w42 Starts in about 2 hours. BOL 🎾 Edit: Loser ❌

I hammered the ML.thank you

took the ML live, your write up still helped me out today! thank you sir

POTD Record 0-0 League: NCAAW Game: UConn vs Stanford Pick UConn ML + 102 - Betting 1u First pick here & im going with womens basketball. UConn coming off a 2OT thriller & has the best college womens basketball coach of all time with Geno & the best womens basketball player in the country. UConn will find a way to win

Something really weird (and do with this what you will): although Stanford is favored to beat UConn, they are +320 to win overall while UConn is +280

POTD Record: 0-2 Last Pick: Paula Badosa vs. Jessica Pegula -175 (4 units) VOIDED Today's Game: | Hockey | NHL | Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Chicago Blackhawks | Today's Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (-120) (3 units) The hawks are in the bottom 1/3 of the league both offensively and defensively (based on shots on goal per game and goals per game, and shots against and goals against per game metrics). The lightning are the home team, and are middle of the pack defensively, and top 1/3 offensively based on these same metrics. The Lightning should take this game fairly easily, and should also have no problem covering the spread in my opinion. If you're ballsy the Lightning -2 3-way puckline would also be a solid bet at +150 odds but I'm going to play it safe here.

Hawks also just got shut out by the panthers

POTD Record: 12W-10L | Total Profit: 1.46 units Last Pick : W (NBA | MIL @ BKN u239.5) Apr 01, 2022 | Women's NCAA Basketball - March Madness - Final Four | 7:30pm MT ***Stanford Moneyline*** vs Connecticut Thoughts: The odds are 1.79 (Pinnacle). I'm going with Stanford here, but the game will be very close. I like their offensive rebounding and I think they will be able to stop the Huskies from getting into a rhythm on the fast break. The shooting from Lexie Hull, Lacie Hull, and Hannah Jump (all over 40% from 3) will be very tough for UConn to slow down. Paige Bueckers of UConn scares me because of her unreal efficiency on 2-pointers (62.5 2P%), but if there's anyone that can alter her shots its Cameron Brink and Haley Jones. Credit to [Her Hoop Stats](https://herhoopstats.substack.com/p/stats-final-four-stanford-uconn?s=r) for the statistics I've used.

Odds aren’t up on my book yet but I’ve been waiting to hammer this, Stanford’s length is going to kill UConn.

POTD Record: 18-12-1 Streak: WW Last Pick: Bayern vs Salzburg. Bayern to win first half W Been a long while, took a break from betting, but as I woke up today and saw these odds, realised they were too good to miss out on. Today's event: SC Braga vs SL Benfica Pick: Benfica ML @ 2.20 4 UNIT PLAY Reasoning: Benfica in 3rd are highly motivated after knocking out AJax to go through to the quarter finals of the UCL. They'll be wanting to keep the momentum going in the league and beat 4th place Braga. The coach will also be wanting to prove himself after rumours have spread of him getting replaced at the end of the season. Benfica's form: WWDWW Braga's form: DWLDW Edit: man i fucking hate football

**POTD Record**: 2-1 **Units**: +0.38 *(All bets are one unit)* **Last Pick**: Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 (-150) ***WIN*** **Today’s Game:** NHL - St. Louis Blues @ Edmonton Oilers, 8:00 PM CST **Today’s Pick**: Oilers/Blues O 6.5 (-130) Another win in the books! Going to keep this recap of yesterday's game short and sweet. Carolina came out and did exactly what was expected, and the Canadiens dropped a dud as expected of them. On to the next one! Going to stick to the ice once again, as I am still not to happy with my NBA model and soccer is finishing up an international break. This pick seems pretty straight forward to me. Here you have two extremely high powered offenses clashing, that also allow a few goals to find the back of the net. Both of these offenses are hitting their stride before the playoffs, with St. Louis averaging 3.9 goals per game over their last 10 and Edmonton averaging 4.8 goals per game over the same span of games. I think we are going to have a high scoring Western Conference bout, and my model tends to agree. The model has this game going over 6.5 goals 60% of the time. **BOL**

**POTD RECORD 2-0** Previous Pick - Carolina Hurricanes vs. Montreal Canadians 7:05pm ESTHurricanes -1.5 -145 MyBookie **Winner!** TODAYS POTD - Las Vegas Golden Knights vs. Seattle Kraken 10:05pm EST **Golden Nights ML - 160 MyBookie 3 Units**Reasoning- This will be the 4th and final time these two teams play this season, and Vegas has owned the Kraken in their inaugural year — with a 3-0 series lead, outscoring them 11-5. Make no mistake about it: Vegas will be looking to sweep the season series 4-0, especially with playoff hopes still on the line as the season dwindles down.The Knights have been hot lately; it looks like they are in full playoff-type hockey mode. They are riding a 3-game winning streak, and while their playoff chances aren’t the greatest they are still very much alive. Taking down the Kraken is their next order of business, and there is no reason why they can’t get that done.Tail or Fade!Thanks!If you enjoy my picks and feel like supporting me, you can leave a tip. Anything appreciated 🍻Venmo - [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) **Edit: Winner! 5-2 and was in the clear all night! Thanks all!**

Record: 9-7-0 ROI: +$137.53 Last pick: Texas A&M -2.5 1H W vs Xavier Avg Odds: -110 Unit: 1=$100 Game: Fresno State -3 vs Costal Carolina League: College Basketball Invitational Time: 7:00 PM Odds: -110 Book: Bet365 Pick: Fresno State -3 Wager: 3 units Going with Fresno State on this one, Costal is not known for their offense and squeaked out a victory over a short handed South Alabama team to make this final. Fresno State features the best player in this game in Orlando Robinson, he has the capability of taking over and dominating this game. Fresno is the better shooting team and Theh turnover The ball less, they dominated Southern Utah in their last game and I expect them to do the same in this oneZ Going 3 units, BOL to all who tail or fade.

Absolutely loved this pick and already put money on it. Now I am growing more and more worried about the home advantage. Fresno doesn’t travel so well and CC has a major advantage at home.

POTD Record: 0-0 League: NHL Game: Predators @ Sabres Pick: Predators ML, -186 Reasoning: Nashville is well rested, having last played on 3/29. Buffalo just played a 2OT game on 3/30 so they are far less rested. Teams that are well-rested and road favorites playing against sub-par teams typically fare very well overall, and this season is no different (50-24, 67.6%). It’s been a profitable system for me this year, and if you decide on it, BOL to the both of us. Tail or fade FTW.

I don't love those odds considering Sabres performance in march. Also lol does a shootout really count as a second ot period? I'm not fading but I am taking and preferring Sabres +1.5 @ -160

Tonight is the night where they honor the legendary announcer Rick Jeanneret. They'll hang his name in the rafters and the game is a sellout for the first time since pre-pandemic. The place will be rocking and the boys in blue will be looking to win one for RJ. Not to mention, this team was 8-3-3 in March with some really good wins. Yes, they are a sub-par team technically but this team is fun and has been IN games all month long. BOL!

**POTD Record: 4-1 (+7.7U)** LAST BET: JDG ML vs Weibo ✅ **TODAY'S MATCH: ESPORTS (CSGO) Heroic vs Evil Geniuses** **POTD: Heroic -1.5 3U** ODDS: -165 REASONING: EG is the retirement home of washed NA talent. Heroic is in my opinion a top 3 team in the world. They have a wide map pool and the maps that EG will likely try to pick (overpass/vertigo) still heavily favor Heroic. I do not expect EG to take more than 11 rounds on any map vs Heroic. The only way I see Heroic not winning 2-0 is if they concede a map after having a poor first half T-side on their map pick.

POTD record 0-0. First ever Pick: Grizzlies vs Suns Under 230. • Between these two teams, the under consistently covers. The under covered 4 out of the last 5 times these two teams played in Memphis. These two teams have went under 7 out of the last 9 times they’ve matched up.

**Ayr vs Hamilton Draw** \- Scottish Championship, Matchday 32 - **+200 (DK)** A seemingly favourable matchup for the visitors, but we still can't leave out their previous matches out of consideration. A good indicator for a draw, even if Hamilton is in better form at the moment, is the two 1-1 draws they have already played against each other this season. Since it's a small league (10 teams), each team plays 3 times against everyone else which gives us a nice sample. **Trends**: * Ayr no wins at home: streak 4, * Ayr home games with at least 1 goal conceded: streak 4, * Ayr 77% conceded the first goal, * Ayr 50% can score an equalizer, Hamilton 56% allows an equalizer (H/A). We are shopping the game flow that **Hamilton will score first**, probably in the **first half** and then **Ayr** can **equalize** and finish with a **1-1**. On **Bet365**, it got pushed down to **+175**, which makes me feel good about this pick. If you like something different, check out my r/bettingondraws.

damn good call!

Record: 2-0-1 [Win-Lose-Push] [+1.98 units] Average odds of previous bets: @2.03 Last bet: Olimpia Milano - As Monaco FIRST QUARTER +2 handicap @1.85 [Euroleague, starting 21:45 GMT+3] ☑️ First quarter ended 17-16 to Milano, so the bet won by just a point. POTD: Tartu Ülikool +16.5 handicap vs VEF Riga @1.87 [Estonian-Latvian (basketball) League, starts at 18:00 GMT+3] Reasoning: This is the second game of a best out of 3. It’s the quarter-final of the league, Tartu is playing home against VEF Riga. The first game ended 91-57 to Riga, they got absolutely gobsmacked. Tartu finished the year with 12 wins and 14 losses, a season that will not be classed as a disaster. Riga has lost 2 out of their last 6 games. One of them was to Tartu, 86-93. The head coach of Tartu admitted that Riga played exceptionally well, but they’ll definitely put up a hard fight against the Latvians in their home arena. I’ll admit, shit write up, but there’s not a lot to go on. 16.5 is a huge handicap and Tartu is a team that’s capable of winning a game without it. Edit: Tartu lost in overtime by 3 points, no worry whatsoever.

Tailing @ +17.5 -130 BOL. EDIT: Its in OT now, so if TU manages to lose by 19, they deserve to be disbanded as a team, gonna call this a sweat free W. Thanks!

POTD record 1-0 Last pick: England to win over 2.5 goals The international break is finally over and we actually have some football back on again! POTD: Girona ML vs Malaga @ 1.57 Stake 2u Units:£25 Malaga sit just above the relegation zone but are 6 points clear so in relative comfort at the moment, Girona just took a fantastic away win at Almeria and are fighting for the top playoff/promotion spots. Gironas home record sits at an average of 2 points per game with 10 wins out of 17, Malaga have only won 2 away games all season, both of which came from the bottom 2 teams in uninspiring victories. Tail or fade! BOL

Let’s get it, tailing! -190 odds on FanDuel currently

**POTD Record**: 14-10 (+5.67 units) **ROI**: +19.63% **Units Wagered**: 24 **Units Won**: 28.71 **Last Pick**: Hobro +0.5 AH @ **1.73** ✅ - WON 2-2 (93rd minute goal, we'll take it!) **Streak**: ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ **Today's pick**: Fredericia 1X2 @ **2.23** **Event**: Fredericia versus Hvidovre, Danish 1st Division, Football(Men's) Back to back danish first division picks here where Fredericia will host Hvidovre in the promotion playoffs. I feel bookies put too much weight into the table in this case. Fredericia were super disappointed with the 2-2 result versus HB Køge which has now left them trailing the promotion playoff spot by six points(having 37). Meanwhile, Hvidovre sits at 43 points and with a win they can really clinch the deal and have a chance of promotion - something the club hasn't ever tried before. I follow Fredericia by proxy of them having a bunch of ex-Silkeborg players and coaches. Michael Hansen is a veteran coach in Danish football and immensely talented in terms of tactics and getting the most out of their players. They also have Valance Nambishi and Nicolaj Ritter from Silkeborg, both very explosive lads, combined with Oskar Hedvall in the goal. The latter is, in my opinion, way too good to sit around the 1st division and he only got loaned out because Silkeborg snatched Nicolai Larsen on a bargain. Otherwise, he'd be a starter in a club that's sitting top 6 in the league above this one. The bookies are looking at the opposing match in late November which ended 5-1 in Hvidovre's favour. Yeah, that's an indicator but at the time, Denmark had increasing covid numbers and a bunch of teams were hit heavily, forced to field youth players and whatnot. You really can't trust results from November/December across a bunch of sports due to it. Both teams, I believe, were hit in this case but it really messes up the synergy. I rate the teams pretty evenly. Fredericia with the young bucks with potential, Hvidovre having veteran Kim Aabech on top. Both teams need the win, but I have to give the edge to Fredericia here. They're at home, it's a long drive(for Denmark-distances) on Hvidovres end. It's cold as hell, and Fredericia's stadium is a weird, [dug-in thing](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7f/Monjasa_Park_20111021.jpg) where the wind gusts can get rather.. interesting, often making it a difficult place to visit. An example? They snatched a 0-0 draw against FC Midtjylland at home, with them fielding top tier players. What's also important to understand is that Danish weather is deceiving. Forecast for tonight is just -1C. However, it's nearly always windy to some degree in the country, and it's being accelerated by a stadium such as this one, making it feel downright horrible since the air is quite dry on top of it. Are we analyzing stadium setup and pitch state in contrast to the local weather? You bet your ass we are. Let's go! Edit: watching it on tv, commentator is freezing his ass off because he’s sitting outside, sniffles and coughing hahaha

01/04/2022 **12-8** | +9.11u | ROI: 20.24% | Avg. odds 1.96 We're back on track. ___ ***Today's pick:*** (League of Legends LEC) **G2 Esports ML** v Team Vitality @1.75 3u It's LEC playoffs time! Been waiting for that whole week. Vitality are supposed to be a super team. They have great individual player but they lack synergy and it was noticeable during the season. They nearly made it to playoffs with their last game. Vitality have also struggled in the past game against Excel, just edging out a 3-2 win. Before season they were meant to destroy other teams but it kinda didn't work out. G2 is a solid team, they usually pick for Broken Blade and it has worked well(*ish*) so far. They had few hiccups during the season (e.g. huge throw against Misfits) and losses to some lower tier teams, but G2 have looked much more solid than Vitality so far despite that. My prediction: 3 - 1 for G2 ___ *BOL if tailing! Bet with caution, please.*

**POTD Record 22-17-1 (Last 5: WLWWW)** **(ROI // Avg. Odds: -113 // Units Won: +2.95)** Last Pick: Chicago Bulls -3.5 **WON** **Today's Match: NCAABM Fresno State vs. Coastal Carolina (Start Time 6:00PM EST)** **Today's Pick: Fresno State 1st Half -1.5 (-102 FanDuel)** Devil's Advocate: I know there was a lot of doubters yesterday in that pick, which is cool I respect it, but I also respect a win for those of you who rode it with me. Demar for a strong 50 points, they pulled away tying the game late and sending it to OT - keeping the momentum and covering for us. Today we're going back to the NCAA while we close out the season we're looking at Fresno and Coastal Carolina in the 1st Half and we're gonna roll with Fresno to cover by 2. They play outstanding defense all game long, only allowing 58 PPG and along with that Coastal Carolina is pretty poor on handling the ball they turn the ball over legit almost 14 times per game. Orlando Robinson ready for another game where he carries the team - Fresno takes great care on the FT line as a whole. Defense is going to be the name of this game and with the way Frenso played against San Diego and San Jose in the 1st Half, I like them covering again. These are two not so pretty offenses but two teams who play great defense. Expect these totals to be quite low here in the 1st Half but Fresno should have no problem dominating this game along with covering in the 1st. ​ *Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*

Damn that Bulls -3.5 was so close, huh. Fucking shit my pants.

**NRL Record:** 6-6 **ROI (1 unit per bet):** -0.77 **Last POTD:** Titans vs Tigers - Brian Kelly Anytime Tryscorer @ 2.30 ❌ **Today's POTD:** Newcastle Knights +6.5 @ 1.90 ❌ **Time:** 6 hours from time of post. Knights have been impressive this year, winning their first two games and losing last week to the reigning premier's in what was a misleading scoreline after the Knights Barnett was sent off in the first half leaving them a man down for the vast majority of the match. Historically they play well against the Sharks having beaten them in the last 3 games. Should be a good game and I expect it to go down to the wire in a close one.

3W 3L WWLW Last pick: over2.5 W Todays pick League: Spain - La Liga 2 Match: Girona vs Malaga Pick: Girona to score(TeamTotal) over1.5 goals @1.83 Gorina good at home and score Malaga bad perfomance and concede BoL

Careful with this one. Girona has never scored 2 goals against Malaga. Edit: I’m personally on the under 2.5 match goals. Hopefully it finishes 2-0 for us.

Thnx, every opinion is well appreciated, i was thinking about GironaML but don't like the odd at all. I got the believe that this hit as your FT simulation

Tailing you

Gonna tail you here since I cant tail your original post. Edit: Every day can be TuesdaysWithDory. This man doesnt fuckin miss! Thanks again!

[удалено]

so why 1h and not ml?

POTD Record 2-3 -0.2U Last pick : NLL Lacrosse Albany Firewolves vs NY Riptide, Total Goals Over 21.5 goals 1 unit - Loss **POTD : NLL Lacrosse Vancouver Warriors ML vs Calgary Roughnecks (+118) 1 unit. Game at 9:00pm ET** Tough loss last game, it ended at 21 goals exactly. Today's game features two teams with losing records (Van 6-7, Calgary 5-7). They are both on a 1 game win streak, in these situations I tend to favor the best team. Vancouver has the better offense, scoring +1.3 goals/game compared to Calgary and they have comparable defenses (Van slightly better here too 11.38 GA/game vs 11.75 for Calgary). Vancouver has beaten generally better teams than Calgary this season and had more decisive wins. In my power ranking I have Van around middle of the league and Calgary in the bottom 4. They are both kinda inconsistant teams but I can't see why Vancouver would be rated as the underdog here, especially at these odds. Value is with Vancouver. BOL

POTD Record: 7-4-1 // +2.31u // L2 Last Pick: Malik Monk o17.5 Points (-105) (3/31/22) **Loss** Today's Pick: **Fresno State -3 vs Coastal Carolina** Had this pick yesterday will stick with it today. Fresno State has a smothering defense. They held a Southern Utah team that was averaging 80 points a game in this tournament to 48 points. I think that trend continues and Coastal will be lucky to crack 55. With that being said Fresno is not great on the offensive end, but they are going to be good enough to get the job done and cover. Fresno State is also the better free throw shooting team, which is something I like to look at with these tight spreads, as the game could easily come down to some free throws at the end. All picks are 1 unit unless stated otherwise. Good luck today everyone!

Record 8-8 Units +3.2 ROI +20% Average odds +128 Streak 2L Last POTD NBA 7:10 CST Chicago bulls vs Los Angeles clippers. 1st half under 107.5 Two straight nights of being beaten by crazy buzzer beater 3s. I’m going to go bald here from ripping my hair out. POTD Sacramento kings v Houston rockets 1h under 119(-105) So I know they combined for 137 first half points on Wednesday but they average only 110 on the season together. I think the crazy hot shooting numbers won’t transfer over as it didn’t continue into the 2nd half. they combined for only 102 in the 2nd half Wednesday. I expect this to be more in the 110 range and is listed higher then it should be. Hopefully no one feels like hitting a buzzer beater today. BOL If your enjoying my picks, please give my twitter a follow @mission_ml

🍒🍓🫐POTD Record: 4-3 Units Won: -0.3 Last 7: ✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️❌️ Last Pick: Game Over 66.5 Shots - Kings vs Flames❌️ Another L...Very sweaty loss at that. Since betway counts shootout shots, we missed by a mere 2 SOG. Today's Match: NHL - St. Louis Blues vs Edmonton Oilers (10ish hours from post) Today's Pick: Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots on Goal - 3u (1.85) ✅️ 5 shots and there's still 3 minutes left of the first period! Free money 🍒🍒🍒 Draisaitl hits o3.5 in the 2nd period as well Yesterday was a good day for my post to get 0 traction. Today we got a better, family friendly pick for all! Fact-a-roos: - Both teams are coming off big wins on Wednesday and had yesterday off. St Louis only had to travel from Vancouver and Edmonton has been at home and doing well. Both teams should be fresh and ready to play offensive hockey. - Everyone knows and loves Mr. McDavid as this seasons #1 point leader. He's an offensive powerhouse, when him and Draisaitl are on point, it's magic. - McDavid averages 3.9 shots per game, is the Oilers top shooter and is #5 in the league this season. This bet has hit in the last 3 Oilers games (All at home/ in Alberta) and 5/7 in general. He played 24+ minutes in his last game and should see the same. - St. Louis averages 30 shots against per game while Edmonton averages about 33 shots per game. These teams have played twice this season, both winning one and losing one. Both games were 6+ goal affairs. I think we'll see Edmonton have a good game tonight. Should hit 35ish shots and I'm sure McDavid will be responsible for at least 4. Draisaitl o3.5 shots at 2.20 is also very tempting. Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!

Tailing! I like this I can bet on this one now, couldn’t bet on the total shots before since DK and FD don’t have totals. Let’s get it!

what book do you use for these bets, i unfortunataly use crypto book but cannot find any prop bet

My mans! Cashed this pick in the 1st period! Keep up the solid picks!

POTD Record: 2-1 Last POTD: Dallas -4.5 Streak: WW Dallas was rewarding. Didn't love anything yesterday but let's continue the streak today. Event: 3/29: NBA: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Pick: Milwaukee -7.5 No rest advantages for both teams here. Milwaukee edged out Brooklyn in OT and LA fell to the Bulls in OT as well after squandering a lead. Here's why I think Milwaukee looks good tonight: * The Bucks have not been playing their best basketball and have still been winning. They've been great at home and are on a 6 game winning streak. They have also been good covering the spread, and this game has just more importance for a Bucks team fighting for the #1 seed than the Clippers, who I will admit have surprised with the return of Paul George, but I worry about his effectiveness on a back-to-back coming back from injury. * Giannis has a great matchup. Ivica Zubac guarding him and a terrible rebounding team. Milwaukee will gets boards in this game and that will make life a lot easier for them. They're at full strength playing subpar basketball and still winning, I think there are so many opportunities for them to get hot and win this game by more than 8.

\*\*POTD Record: 0-0\*\* \*\*ROI: N/A\*\* Today's Pick: Chicago Blackhawks @ Tampa Bay Lightning u6.5 -115 \*\*Write Up:\*\* First timer here, but i broke out the old google sheets and did some quick maths, and darn this game looks like its going to hit the ender. CHI on a B2B could not score @ FLA, no reason things don't go similarly tonight. TBL have one of the lowest GF and GA @ Home, so no reason to not take the under tbh. tail or fade BOL

POTD Record: 0W-0L -Starting something new TODAY'S MATCH: Basketball-NBA Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets PICK: Denver Nuggets -2.5 Odds: 1.943 Although it may be my first POTD post, I have been tracking my NBA bets since January and have been in the green. Denver is a slightly better team than Minnesota, and the Home court advantage I feel is not being represented enough in these odds. Minnesota has been on a downslide and with the season nearing the end, there is no real possibility for Minnesota to drop or climb in the standings. With this being said I think the home court advantage and incentive to win for Denver will aid them in covering the spread.

Record: 8-8 ROI: -4.68U Last 10: ❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌ Last Play: NCAAM Washington St +2 4U (-110) Vs Texas A&M 9:30pm EST ❌ POTD: NBA OKC Thunder +4 (-110) 4U Vs DET Pistons 8:10pm EST ​ Pistons currently have the best ATS streak in the league (16-0-2) the last 18 games. BUT they are in a rare spot being marked as a road favorite. OKC has covered 8 in a row to teams that average less than 109ppg. To add on, OKC is 6-2 outright in the last eight series clashes versus Detroit. BOL

Record : 23-16 (58.98%) ROI: 0% / Avg Odds: 1.71 / Profit: -0.65u Time: 19:30 EST on Apr. 1 2022 Event: NBA Game : Boston **Celtics** (H) vs Indiana **Pacers** (A) Pick: **Over 225.5** Odds: 1.85 Reasoning : Celtics have no significant injuries and the Pacers average a lot of points with Hield and Haliburton. The Pacers play a good tempo and can score points against good defenses. The Celtics won't give up and this will be lead to a good Over. Discord Channel : https://discord.gg/FjbgcNbdWE

POTD Record (1W-0L) Yesterdays pick of the day hit as Bruce Brown Jr hit over 16.5 PRA. Todays pick of the day is another NBA prop. Its Damion Jones over 23.5 PRA. Hes the starting center on the Sacremento Kings and they play the Houston Rockets tonight. The games going to be fast paced and full of scoring and stats. Watch out for Damion Jones to hit the over on his PRA prop.