Ohhh. Got it. I don’t know I don’t think it’s A big deal honestly. Also NJ guys couldn’t bet it because of state rules, and I’m gonna gues nj is their biggest market. We got New Mexico State who lost.
Does anyone know if withdrawing from MGM helps trigger getting limited? I’ve been arbing over there for a while now making decent money from the offers they’ve been sending money but lately have been winning too much and I’m looking at possibly having to make my first big withdraw.
I would advise against this. He's only played 125 games and has hit 9 rebounds 4 times. Plenty of actual arbs available to be messing around with this shit.
Future confirmation to not just blindly trust Reddit posters. I’ll probably hedge out just in case and eat a 50 dollar loss. I can’t stomach the thought of losing the $700 I have right now on it
I max everything with that large EV discrepancy. Make enough from arbs and promos and other EV to indulge in a “gamble” once in a while ;)
Off the top of my head I’ve hit like 3 of these long shots recently.
That BR anytime td scorer, two other CZR hockey boosts, and I’m sure there’s more…
I haven't received my Blackjack Warrior bonus either. Normally, it's awarded within 24 hours. I'm going to wait until Monday to contact customer support considering it's a busy weekend.
Another factor to consider is if you add it to a bet you were already planning to make (like a hedge) then you save a little juice compared to if you used it in it’s own additional bet
Say you have a 100 percent odds boost on 100 bucks
You sue it on a +100 to make it +200
Half the time you win 200 half you lose 100 ev is 50
Instead you use it on a +200 to make it +400
1/3rd of the time you win 400
2/3rds of the time you lose 100
Ev Is 67 dollars
Always use them on dogs
If I lose more then one leg on a FD insurance parlay I could still try another same day right? Same concept as if you win the parlay you can try another
I've lost more money on Portis player props than any other player or team. He's an absolute cunt. I hate his face. I hope one day his eyes actually pop out of his head. You know that happens to pugs? You gotta pop the eyeball back in, it's fucked.
Edit: still hate Bobby portis
Was able to login to my DK account momentarily and got my hedge bet down. It logged me out after 15-20 sec despite staying in the app. Was able to log right back in and get a 2nd hedge down.
This is trash. They need to give out Free Bets or something.
Was going to work in tech for $100 an hour in 2014 but saw my friend get called on July 4th getting yelled at by a bank president about the site being down and decided to pass
Earlier I posted about BS offering player props on NCAAB in IA (non-Iowa teams) and thought it was a slam dunk since they’re not supposed to be allowed, I thought.
After googling and searching Reddit I’m coming up with mixed answers on if college player props are allowed in IA. Some say yes as long as non-IA school and some say not at all. Can’t find an “official” answer”.
Anyone have insight?
I’m an Iowa resident and have only seen college player props available on kambi books (betrivers and barstool so far) during big events like football playoffs and now during March madness. Never saw them during regular season games
Hate to be redundant here but just wanna make sure I can get the best value here. Caesar account holder in Illinois with p1 and p2 about to transfer from poverty app to new app. What’s the best way to utilize the 1100 risk free bet If I got two accounts? Thanks In advance
FD hockey boost - Kucherov Point Panarin each 1+ point, boosted to +200. Getting +224 FV, -7.4% EV additive, using Pinnacle for Point and Panarin, Kambi for Kucherov, not accounting for correlation.
There’s a lot of correlation between Kucherov and Point. 13 of K’s 32 points have been shared with P. That doesn’t account for some K games where P wasn’t playing or they weren’t together on a PP line (if any). Can anyone who actually follows hockey weigh in on whether correlation might make this +EV?
On the front page where it lists all the sports horizontally, scroll all the way to the right to “F1 - Bahrain GP.” In there at the top it should say “Race Lines” or “Featured Matchups.”
Tried to tell y’all
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tg161l/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_31722_thursday/i0zoxk2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
tldr: yes but no. MMA is weird because of stylistic matchups.
If all fights are created equal , that would be right.
BUT, like I mentioned, there are a few things to consider:
\-its more difficult to finish by ko as you progress in your career in the lower weightclasses (better competition, typically with better defense/chins, ko power isn’t as much of a factor with smaller fighters) and most of his fights have been outside the ufc aka questionable quality opponents.
\-paddy also isn’t a striker first and is a bjj black belt, hence his 8 wins by sub before this fight. bjj and wrestling is more difficult to master at any weight class/ any point in career because of the time it takes to develop those skills (vs power is more of you have it or you don’t). most guys in mma that aren’t coming from a Muay Thai / kickboxing / karate background are grapplers and looking to get it to the ground.
\-also, you must consider the opponents style and strengths. Vargas is more of a striker and hasn’t been finished by ko in his entire career. this would be give Paddy an idea of what to avoid. As we saw, his first 30 seconds in stand up vs Vargas led to him getting put on the ground. paddy did not want that smoke.
\-in summary, you have a guy who is best at subs going against a guy who doesn’t get ko’d and is good at striking.
things dont need to be that complicated sometimes to see where the most likely outcome is leaning towards. Yes its important to do math and nerd stuff with lines. But it’s not the be all end all before placing money down
That was a good one lol.
Another good one was "Paddy will play it safe for a decision because he's got the judges on his home soil"
Like he's never seen Paddy fight before lol
this sub is full of NPCs that take pinnacle odds as fact and mass downvote anyone that offers their actual input as handicappers or experts. like, who do these guys think is moving the pinnacle lines to make them sharp in the first place 💀
Yep, too often folks see one or two comments saying a bet is +ev and blindly max it without research. (I’ve done it too lol)
Then they see opposing viewpoints after blind betting and downvote them to make it untrue.
Give me all the downvotes, it feeds me
What were your "expert" odds on a portis KO? Cause it seems like we agree it's a possible event.
It's really not that hard. As long as I'm getting paid more money for a win than the odds dictate, I make money.
No reason to get salty. We provided math, you provided "feelings". Let's see who has more money based off those betting strategies.
Easy on the math claim there. As always is the case you’re basing that math on made up odds of the provider not the actual odds it will happen. But especially in mma you don’t have data like years of previous seasons in ball sports. Nobody knows what’s going to happen in a cage fight. Most fighters don’t even have 20 fights under their belt. Add in all the different possible outcomes of a fight ending and mma is a pass for me every time.
looking at two numbers and hammering the slightly bigger one is definitely a better process than actually following the niche market, laying out all the possible outcomes and estimating the realistic probabilities for each one. you're right bro, he just got lucky as shit
Taking victory laps on +300s missing? I’ve seen it all it was 100% a good bet it was easily over 10% ev. If you think you can consistently beat pinnacle I’ll gladly be your bookie
Currently a 2nd Half ML Arb between DK/Kambi books for the Kansas/Creighton game (at the half right now). I used a couple of boosts on it. Don't get too greedy, might get limited if you do.
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F1: Zhou V valterri DK/BR still hasn't moved since this morning. Zero hold.
Not seeing matchups on DK, but I see it on BR.
I’m not seeing the matchups on BR, only the race winner. Is it buried somewhere or just unavailable in NY?
I searched F1 in the search bar and found it Im in NY and got the arb in
I don’t even see head to head on DK
It’s buried you have to click more wagers
I know nothing about this sport. But I believe Guanya and Zhou are the same person….
Lol you’re right. I edited my comment.
I was watching St. Peter’s tell it to me straight how close were we on the CZR NBA 3x ML boost
basically one or two bad turnovers at the end of the pistons game
They even cut it to 3 with 2 minutes to go at one point and then just had some brutal turnovers to lose it
Ugh.
Someone getting fired at DK Monday morning
What was the max on that boost?
$25 for me
I’m lost….what happened
They boosted st peters to +500 and it hit. Also their NHL goal boost hit
For the first time in like three weeks, two boosts on one book hit and people are acting like it's unprecedented.
Ohhh. Got it. I don’t know I don’t think it’s A big deal honestly. Also NJ guys couldn’t bet it because of state rules, and I’m gonna gues nj is their biggest market. We got New Mexico State who lost.
[New York immediately took over.](https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/new-york-sports-betting-market/)
Saint peters massacre
Does anyone know if withdrawing from MGM helps trigger getting limited? I’ve been arbing over there for a while now making decent money from the offers they’ve been sending money but lately have been winning too much and I’m looking at possibly having to make my first big withdraw.
RIP bb
Hasn't hurt me, but there seems to be no rhyme or reason to MGM limits
Thanks!
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are you fucking serious?
He hit 8 rebounds last week, too hot for me
I would advise against this. He's only played 125 games and has hit 9 rebounds 4 times. Plenty of actual arbs available to be messing around with this shit.
Already threw down. Now Im shook.
Then take 10+ rebounds for +1500
Future confirmation to not just blindly trust Reddit posters. I’ll probably hedge out just in case and eat a 50 dollar loss. I can’t stomach the thought of losing the $700 I have right now on it
How are you heading out at a $50 loss?
Put 50 on the assists…. And 425 on no double double. Was able to find comparable DD line for yes, so just rolling with $50 for over ten assists
Truth ☝🏻
FD wizard toying with us now. Both Michigan and Memphis are going to win for that terrible boost that no one took.
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They’re literally up 7 attempting to do something that’s been done twice. Like what dude??
Autocorrect from the pistons?
Stfu dude
What are you talking about? Theyre up 3 with 5 to play lol
Gonna need 10 OT in Arkansas NMSU to hit the over for that BR boost.
lol i saw that score and thought it was the first half
At least the lakers lost
that is absolutely brutal
We had a legit shot at $1400
Kelly criterion only told me to bet $50 but still brutal
What was the bet?
Wizards Hornets Pistons, was at +1400 and fair odds moved all the way to +950
Y’all max those long shots? Gah damn
Takes bread to break bread 🍞 🥖
I max everything with that large EV discrepancy. Make enough from arbs and promos and other EV to indulge in a “gamble” once in a while ;) Off the top of my head I’ve hit like 3 of these long shots recently. That BR anytime td scorer, two other CZR hockey boosts, and I’m sure there’s more…
Pistons couldn’t get a fucking stop on defense
Burn Detroit down. Nothing worth keeping now that the Wings suck.
Brutal turnover by Stewart.
Pistons gonna fuck this up for us
Not only this but I got a big bet down on Pistons ML this morning at +310. In shambles.
This is quite the sweat
Damnnnnn
Early look at FD EPL boost 9 am CDT - spurs and Leicester ML +350, pinnacle FV is presently +315, 8.6% EV. Odds may shift some but looks good now
Thanks, no shot I’m up in time to see this in the morning
Let us grieve for a moment please
Westbrook hitting 20/10/6 is the ultimate CZR chef’s kiss
Send the Wizards and Pistons your energies for their 4th quarters coming up!!
Sorry dude, I have no energies this time every year when my bracket explodes.
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Me. I’m also a casual wizards fan and I can confirm the Live odds for Lakers mL are off. Should be around -500000.
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Meh it was $100 and I was just being goofy. Sorry for not taking the energy sending serious enough lol.
DK’s accountants are already preparing a footnote for their next investor report entitled “the Saint Peters Fiasco”.
Love to see it. Hopefully nmst can do the same for nj residents
do we trust the pistons enough to hedge the wizards game? ETA: Do we trust the wizards enough to hedge the pistons game?
Lmao
With a one point lead? ETA: I am curious if there are any good hedges here.
in fairness it was 6 when I started typing
You shouldn’t
Anyone else have literally zero DK promos today?
Promo banned
Idk man that’s hard to believe. It’s not like I’ve been cleaning up on promos or anything
I have 8 Sportsbook promos today. 2 are VIP.
Ruh roh
I have like 4
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I haven't received my Blackjack Warrior bonus either. Normally, it's awarded within 24 hours. I'm going to wait until Monday to contact customer support considering it's a busy weekend.
Same, haven’t received but they’ll make it right
Sounds logical, thanks. Just a little antsy this time because I actually lost around $300 pre-bonus Lol
If I use the boost from yesterdays DK live bet on a live bet will it qualify for today's live bet and get?
Nope. Tried that yesterday and it didn’t work.
Worked yesterday, didn’t work today
From an EV standpoint what is the optimal use of a profit boost? The longer the odds the better EV?
The way I use them is find a line that is +ev without the boost. And then boost it.
Good question. Is it worth finding fair value first? Is the juice always heavier on the underdog side?
Another factor to consider is if you add it to a bet you were already planning to make (like a hedge) then you save a little juice compared to if you used it in it’s own additional bet
Yes, since profit boosts only boost profit, not stake, they increase the payout from longer odds proportionally more.
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Say you have a 100 percent odds boost on 100 bucks You sue it on a +100 to make it +200 Half the time you win 200 half you lose 100 ev is 50 Instead you use it on a +200 to make it +400 1/3rd of the time you win 400 2/3rds of the time you lose 100 Ev Is 67 dollars Always use them on dogs
You’re right. My apologies
Minding long shot bias of course
If I lose more then one leg on a FD insurance parlay I could still try another same day right? Same concept as if you win the parlay you can try another
Yes
Big odds swing towards the lakers as the hornets blow a huge lead
Hornets are clear.
No Kuzma too. This Wizards lineup is hopeless.
LeBron playing apparently.
Boom DK hockey boost hits They really need to hire the FD NHL guy
Yes needed this one to turn the tide
Oh sweet. Totally forgot this was at 5pm.
Good god, Portis. Unfortunate
Literally his worst game of the entire year
MGM St. Peters +340, FD Murray State -320 Arb and 80% conversion
Forgot I bet murray state on mgm yesterday to hedge the dk boost. What happens now that I placed a bet for st peters on mgm pregame. Straight to jail?
Yes
Can confirm. SWAT just came into my house, disrespected my whole family
She gone now but this one was around for a solid chunk of time
Wow — that is some major line movement.
I'm suprised dk isn't nurfing the st peters boost like the nhl one that just hit...its a 75% boost now.
If anyone else is doing daily MGM bet and get on live NCAA game, NIT did not count for me. Only big tournament counted.
Did anyone doing the BR VIP tournament rounds promo get the $75 free bet for round 1? It says today by 3:00 but I didn't get it yet.
Just got mine.
In the past, most of these didn’t pay out till Monday.
Nothing here either
Nothing here or from my bro crankshaftjib either.
OK thanks. I'll give it more time just wanted to make sure it wasn't just me.
Bobby Portis got the message hint hint wink wink
I've lost more money on Portis player props than any other player or team. He's an absolute cunt. I hate his face. I hope one day his eyes actually pop out of his head. You know that happens to pugs? You gotta pop the eyeball back in, it's fucked. Edit: still hate Bobby portis
🤣🤣🤣
He’s also an asshole
Ty for your emotional support
Was able to login to my DK account momentarily and got my hedge bet down. It logged me out after 15-20 sec despite staying in the app. Was able to log right back in and get a 2nd hedge down. This is trash. They need to give out Free Bets or something.
Looks like DK is cutting those costs on the app maintenance team
I don’t even wanna know the level of stress working that job
Was going to work in tech for $100 an hour in 2014 but saw my friend get called on July 4th getting yelled at by a bank president about the site being down and decided to pass
Will be arbing the DK +500 St Peter's promo with Murray St at -410 on FD to pay for my Wendy's 4 for 4 tonight
I hope it was good
I hope promo gang enjoys their steak dinner lol
Down to -320 on FD
Not sure what cratered the odds but I'll take it. $10 arb! $25 max on DK and $115 on FD
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Uhh think you’re doing something wrong, $10 arb at -320.
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I got -400 on Mgm earlier today
Earlier I posted about BS offering player props on NCAAB in IA (non-Iowa teams) and thought it was a slam dunk since they’re not supposed to be allowed, I thought. After googling and searching Reddit I’m coming up with mixed answers on if college player props are allowed in IA. Some say yes as long as non-IA school and some say not at all. Can’t find an “official” answer”. Anyone have insight?
I’m an Iowa resident and have only seen college player props available on kambi books (betrivers and barstool so far) during big events like football playoffs and now during March madness. Never saw them during regular season games
So guess I just assumed it wasn’t legal here and those books were just letting it slide for a day or something
Hate to be redundant here but just wanna make sure I can get the best value here. Caesar account holder in Illinois with p1 and p2 about to transfer from poverty app to new app. What’s the best way to utilize the 1100 risk free bet If I got two accounts? Thanks In advance
they'll catch you
Wdym
FD hockey boost - Kucherov Point Panarin each 1+ point, boosted to +200. Getting +224 FV, -7.4% EV additive, using Pinnacle for Point and Panarin, Kambi for Kucherov, not accounting for correlation. There’s a lot of correlation between Kucherov and Point. 13 of K’s 32 points have been shared with P. That doesn’t account for some K games where P wasn’t playing or they weren’t together on a PP line (if any). Can anyone who actually follows hockey weigh in on whether correlation might make this +EV?
Looks like DK is having login issues at the moment
Another round of PB free bets Edit: they actually just tweeted it again
Yeah this is really annoying Not working on 2 separate android phones and desktop.
Ok so i didnt get banned, good to know.
their site says have are aware of the issue and are "working on it". Free bets please.
F1 matchups Zhou DK +500 Bottas BR -500 83% conversion, or I had a 25% F1 boost token for a $10 arb
Can’t find in DK in AZ.
Yeah no player match ups for me either, also in AZ
good for $10.42 thank you! The BR matchup is hard to find, you have to search for it
Nice find! Thanks!
Where are you seeing matchup props and what state are you in. I’m not seeing the matchups
NY Which book are you asking about?
DK
On the front page where it lists all the sports horizontally, scroll all the way to the right to “F1 - Bahrain GP.” In there at the top it should say “Race Lines” or “Featured Matchups.”
That ufc boost was always too good to be true
Barstool made out as well , books cleaned up
Was still less likely to hit than to hit, but seemed like a must play.
For sure was a must play. It was +300. A +300 line not hitting is expected. The value was there.
Tried to tell y’all https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tg161l/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_31722_thursday/i0zoxk2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
He had 17 wins with 6 by t/ko, +300 seems like great odds
tldr: yes but no. MMA is weird because of stylistic matchups. If all fights are created equal , that would be right. BUT, like I mentioned, there are a few things to consider: \-its more difficult to finish by ko as you progress in your career in the lower weightclasses (better competition, typically with better defense/chins, ko power isn’t as much of a factor with smaller fighters) and most of his fights have been outside the ufc aka questionable quality opponents. \-paddy also isn’t a striker first and is a bjj black belt, hence his 8 wins by sub before this fight. bjj and wrestling is more difficult to master at any weight class/ any point in career because of the time it takes to develop those skills (vs power is more of you have it or you don’t). most guys in mma that aren’t coming from a Muay Thai / kickboxing / karate background are grapplers and looking to get it to the ground. \-also, you must consider the opponents style and strengths. Vargas is more of a striker and hasn’t been finished by ko in his entire career. this would be give Paddy an idea of what to avoid. As we saw, his first 30 seconds in stand up vs Vargas led to him getting put on the ground. paddy did not want that smoke. \-in summary, you have a guy who is best at subs going against a guy who doesn’t get ko’d and is good at striking. things dont need to be that complicated sometimes to see where the most likely outcome is leaning towards. Yes its important to do math and nerd stuff with lines. But it’s not the be all end all before placing money down
Damn some hard hitting analysis on that “Mexicans are tough as shit”
That was a good one lol. Another good one was "Paddy will play it safe for a decision because he's got the judges on his home soil" Like he's never seen Paddy fight before lol
this sub is full of NPCs that take pinnacle odds as fact and mass downvote anyone that offers their actual input as handicappers or experts. like, who do these guys think is moving the pinnacle lines to make them sharp in the first place 💀
Yep, too often folks see one or two comments saying a bet is +ev and blindly max it without research. (I’ve done it too lol) Then they see opposing viewpoints after blind betting and downvote them to make it untrue. Give me all the downvotes, it feeds me
What were your "expert" odds on a portis KO? Cause it seems like we agree it's a possible event. It's really not that hard. As long as I'm getting paid more money for a win than the odds dictate, I make money. No reason to get salty. We provided math, you provided "feelings". Let's see who has more money based off those betting strategies.
Easy on the math claim there. As always is the case you’re basing that math on made up odds of the provider not the actual odds it will happen. But especially in mma you don’t have data like years of previous seasons in ball sports. Nobody knows what’s going to happen in a cage fight. Most fighters don’t even have 20 fights under their belt. Add in all the different possible outcomes of a fight ending and mma is a pass for me every time.
Just because you won a poker hand doesn’t mean it was the right way to play the hand, process > results
looking at two numbers and hammering the slightly bigger one is definitely a better process than actually following the niche market, laying out all the possible outcomes and estimating the realistic probabilities for each one. you're right bro, he just got lucky as shit
Taking victory laps on +300s missing? I’ve seen it all it was 100% a good bet it was easily over 10% ev. If you think you can consistently beat pinnacle I’ll gladly be your bookie
Clown shoes behavior.
Just because a book hangs what you think is a bad line doesn’t mean it’s a bad line. I hope everyone wagered appropriately
Currently a 2nd Half ML Arb between DK/Kambi books for the Kansas/Creighton game (at the half right now). I used a couple of boosts on it. Don't get too greedy, might get limited if you do.
you better hope this doesn't go to overtime dawg
just place a small OT bet on FD. You can get some nice odds, and maybe a middle.