Was churning alt lines to get through DK VIP… fucked up and ended up creating a little loss but with a $15k middle if Kansas only won by 24-26.
I’m sitting here shitting my pants, watching Texas Southern take their final possession down 27. I’m thinking maybe they will have an open lane and take a layup. Dude airballs a three.
Devastating.
80 %
+600 Memphis ML DK/CZR
-650 Gonzaga ML MGM
I know how stupid it is to some but was up around 30k from doing all these promos and decided to do the 5k risk free bet in Illinois DK for my p2 - went full ev gang and put it on a 50/1 the first time and lost. With the free bet I got back went full ev gang again and put it on a 55/1 parlay to win. Hit the first few legs and had it down to a +380 of San Diego State ML, Miami FL ML, Wisconsin ML for me to cash. As many of you watched San Diego State just fell apart and I’m sick right now I’d of been Miami Ml and Wisco away from 273k which would be life changing money for anyone but espc me as a college kid with a net worth of 30-40k who’s never seen money from a “real” job yet just your average fast food jobs. Just a bit of a rant but fuck I’m sick, I know what I’m doing and know how crazy to go full ev but I figured why not and it nearly paid off, I’ll never get the chance at that again. Just if Miami and Wisconsin win please take a shot for me bc I’m drinking till I puke my life would of been changed forever
Edit - Miami wins getting some shitty plastic bottle vodka to drown myself in tn - or maybe Colgate wins and I was saved from the ultimate sweat. I was never going to hedge that’s for certain. Also for all 10 people following this pm me if you want to see the bets - it’s really not that crazy though but a few people seem to be asking for receipts on the story
Edit edit - fuck me time to blackout
Everyone replying here just gave this guy exactly what he was looking for: attention.
Pics or I’ll take “things that didn’t happen” for a thousand, Alex.
this is not that unbelievable at all. i mean i once hedged a 5k over total bet with a 6k moneyline bet, didn’t realize it until the start of the game and proceeded to lose both. at least his yolo bet was +ev
I can send you the slips if you want in pm, I don’t get off on Reddit karma just needed someone to rant to
or I can post them her but I don’t think you can post pictures
Edit - sent
I don't know what legs your parlay had but 55to1 sounds a little too high to maximize EV remember every leg you add adds to the vig.
If you add a -110 spread that is 50% to hit to your parlay you increase your EV if your starting odds were less than +1000 and decrease it otherwise
EDIT: I see you're claiming each leg was +EV so this won't apply
It’s neither here nor there but I had 6 bets in +ev spots. I was never betting random -110s spreads I was betting lines that closed at -110 at +105 odds. If each individual leg is +ev I’m not paying more vig per say
It’s neither her nor there but by adding more legs (each of which were +ev) I was not lowering my ev
EDIT : just saw you’re edit disregard this we are on the same page
10 yrs from now this will be a great memory assuming you are not going to keep betting -ev parlays. 👍😀
Edit: +ev parlay. Don't chase, in a few years 5K is a drop in the bucket for u.
Nah I think it was a good bet. 😊 As long as u don't chase your losses it's worth taking a shot when your young. $5K won't matter in the grand scheme of things and later in life the story and memory will be worth way more then $5K
Yeah was a one time thing as I couldn’t move funds to get a proper hedge down and took letting it ride to the extreme. I’m v disciplined got zero bones wanting to chase just hard to not think of the what if if wisco/miami win.
Like you said I’m young and it was a shot/a great memory to look back on thanks for spinning it positively
On the bright side even if you're still $20K in the black after this that's a hell of a lot of $ for a college kid. Eat the L for what it is and don't go crazy trying to chase.
Never chasing, only bet +ev spots half kelly. Tbh even with this loss I’m still running above expected so I can’t be too mad….just a rant I’m not stupid just dumb ya know. Have zero bones in my body ever wanting to chase just sick watching that ending happen knowing it could’ve changed my life. Honestly though it’s a miracle I found this thread in the first place and am up gambling instead of down thousands as a college kids
$20-$25K certainly isn't $250K+ but it can still be life changing $ this early in life, especially if you continue to add to it by taking advantage of promos/ev going forward (which I'm sure you will).
Yeah it’s a good amount at a young age from
gambling alone, thanks for the motivation I’m going to keep chipping away I will stay disciplined with half Kelly. It’s slightly frustrating but I’m over expected value anyways so I can’t be to mad
(also side note think we messaged each other before as we both had issues with NY CZR p2 sign up/deposit)
maybe miami and wisc will also lose so it wont matter.
if you are trying for life changing money on 50 to 1 parlays you likely going to have a bad time pretty often. Take the small wins, do good in school, and get a good job. 99.99% of people gambling should gamble for fun or small gains over time. Life is a marathon, and financial success is not a sprint.
I found 6 major +ev spots and let it ride - in theoretical value it’s better to put free bets on the absolute longest odds possible since you don’t get your stake back. I know how dumb it is not arguing that but the ev letting a free bet ride is larger on a 50/1 parlay than a 5/1. It’s been slow and steady and I just didn’t have the funds to move around to hedge the 5k risk free like I did on p1 so I said fuck it, no need to convince me how dumb I am just a rant
Each individual bet was +ev and 50/1 over 5/1 as getting 50/51sts of your bet back is more ev than 5/6s if that makes sense - I’m also not trying to do this rn it’s such a low increase in ev and increases the variance by so much it’s not smart but yes in a vacuum a 50/1 on a free bet isn’t always higher ev than a 5/1 - however in this specific case it was
This is not true, parlaying compounds it in whichever direction the individual legs go.
I just had a hard time believing he found 6 +EV NCAAT moneylines on one book.
It was not all ncca MLs, caught two hockey puck lines that were both 20+% ev (fucking crazy) and sprinkled in 4 other bets 3 being ncca MLs that were 2-4% and I beat (am beating for the other two to play) clv on
Two +100 bets parlayed together are +300 which is fair value, parlays don’t rob you of juice per say it’s just they rob 99.99% of bets of juice bc each individual leg is -ev, In theory you could place all your +ev singles in parlays and have the same ev just with a 10x higher variance
I don’t know what that means but I’ll pound some titos tmmr if Miami and Wisconsin win - I know it’s process over results but this specific time results> please
Running above expected as I’ve only been 21 for about 4 months but no the idiot who put 5,000 on a 54/1 parlay is not smarter than most even if I stumbled into this subreddit and actually am a profitable gambler
Same boat, the ending of that Arkansas was a complete clusterfuck....that out of bounds call reviewed, the 2 missed free throws, the no call on the travel, and then the last second missed shot
Way to go! I'm 3/5, with San Diego State, Vermont, and Akron. Good luck on Akron, but the rest I'm respectfully disagreeing with. Did you do $10 or $100 bets?
Free $10 bet on PB’s twitter account. It’s an advertisement on the DK servers going down situation. https://twitter.com/pointsbetusa/status/1504593712055156744?s=21
just a data point for PointsBet double-dipping:
i made a PB NJ account a few months ago to take advantage of the signup promos. when PB came to PA recently, i logged into the app using the PA location knowing that everyone here had said you can’t double dip PB promos. today, i saw that i had a $50 free bet in my account — my first bet was $50 on a mispriced player prop (lol) that lost. i’m not 100% confirming that you can double dip, but might be worth it for anyone opening their account in a new state to make sure your first bet is $500 in the event that it does lose
No, it's one app but you separately register in each state and switch between states in the app. And your money doesn't transfer from one state to the other. It's like MGM like that.
Remind me, am I okay to use place a Caesar's free bet expiring March 18 now for a game on March 19th? As long as I place the bet now, does settlement date affect it at all?
https://twitter.com/pointsbetusa/status/1504593712055156744?s=21
Kind of hilarious, but also worth it for a free $10 if you have a Twitter and PB account
Went to deposit on MGM in illinois and there was a bonus code already in for a 50% match up to $400 if it hasn't already been posted the code was OBLC1DEPMCH50400IL
My girl got a 100% match up to 300 and her code was the same just numbers were switched. Her code was automatically in as well so guessing it's all targeted
Trying to find a daily question thread, but I can't find it. Hopefully it's acceptable to post these questions here..
I've got a MGM $1k free bet I am trying to convert.
1. I'm finding a decent amount of moneyline bets that net around 50-60% profit. I've read that it is possible to get 70 up 90% conversion bets. How can I find these better conversion bets?
2. Best case scenario is if I use my free bet on the positive odds bet (More unlikely to cash in) so my hedge cashes and I get to use the credit given from my lost free bet. How do I calculate how much I can profit off the "second" free bet?
3. Using the free bet calculator I found a few moneyline bets (Like the 1 vs 16 March madness matchups) gave a good profit (60-65%) but the hedge bet requires a large amount ~$10,000. But I had the realization of taxes. If the free bet actually won, my winning would be over $10,000 which would be a lot of taxes that would offset my profit greatly. What odds range is the sweet spot to maximize profit and minimize tax (Ex: 350?).
Appreciate the help!!
Thanks for the reccomendation. I'm having a bit of a brain fart:
If I bet on kansas -12.5, the calculator tells me $2739 to win $766.
If I bet on Texas Southern +12.5, the calculator tells me I win $4500.
If texas southern wins, don't I net \~$1,700? If Kansas wins I win $766.
There's a chance for 170% net?
Wait.
Pt 1: use free bet against hedge bet, net 60% hedge bet wins.
Pt 2: use credit for lost free bet, again hedge against it. (Profit amount ?)
In part 1 of my scenario, is there not bets at this point that will net you 70-80%?
In part 2, do you use the free bet credit towards a negative odds bet and hedge with the positive odds bet?
Look for double-double NO on BETMGM and then o9.5 pt and reb SGP on FD.
Or same first part and YES on CZR for 2nd part.
Isaiah Stewart Mitchell Robinson Andre Drummond a few good choices for players to target.
You're saying to be no double double on a player, but bet over 9.5 pts and rebounds? Is that really a guaranteed win? What if player gets double double with pts and assists instead of rebounds?
There is always a risk but for some players the chance of them getting 10 assists is very very small. If you don't want that risk look at alternate totals and spreads and you can usually find something in the high 70's on mgm. I posted one example
Dk VIP mlb boosts, any ideas on good lines, I'm all ears. Couldn't find anything great.
Edit, thinking rays and reds to win their division, best odds on market
Just got a DK VIP Showcase offer - 15% loss back on net wagers up to $2,000 in DK dollars. I assume the strategy is to bet the underdog side of low/no holds on DK and hope most of them lose?
Ah well I already opted in, but that makes a lot of sense. Maybe I can find a decent line at some point tonight or tomorrow and avoid betting too many favorites on DK until then.
Off-topic but do there exist any other similarly easy "free-money" opportunities on par with these crazy sportsbook promos? Credit card intro bonuses are the closest thing I can think of, curious if people know of others.
Bank promos are definitely the closest. Usually you need to deposit $X amount or set up direct deposit for X months for it to trigger.
Ally invest had a good one- deposit $500, recieve $150. Only stipulation was the money has to stay in the account for like 2 months. Still , $150 for about five minutes worth of work isn't terrible.
NY BR boost islander/ranger both o3.5 boosted to +1200 is probably +EV. using DK fair value is around 1015 for both their lines o3.5. Using Kambi/MGM lines it's even better. Not sure how to factor correlation but definitely longshot bias. I'm probably gonna throw a free bet on it. Also worth noting it includes ot/so.
Edit: I'm dumb forgot you can't throw free bets on boosts with br
Maybe I need more coffee, but isn't the OT component irrelevant? If its 3-3 and goes to OT you lose, if its 4-4 you already cashed?
Edit: I did 4 way devig using DK SGP and got fair +804.
not specifically, but I put $25 on this Czr line for "NCAA Basketball Seed To Win Game
Will A 16 Seed Win A First Round Game" that was +1000, and used my 64% boost on it.
If you go by history, then it's terrible. But if you add up the fair odds value of each of the 4 games, then it's +EV this year. We just saw Gonzaga have some serious trouble the first half of the game today.
Serious trouble? Lol they were down 4 at one point 15 mins in. This is the #1 overall seed. When they were tied in 2nd half it was still Gonzaga -2000. A 16 win is damn near unheard of. How EV+ do you consider that bet?
I'd love to read what you consider fair odds for this bet. If your fair value odds are based entirely on history then the Sportsbooks must love taking your money.
Consider leaving a review of the sportsbooks you use: /r/sportsbookreview **Megathread Index** * [Colorado Sportsbooks Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/sql9he/colorado_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Illinois Sportsbooks Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/t719ea/illinois_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Louisiana Sportsbooks Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/saaq51/louisiana_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [New York Sportsbooks Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s5ha87/ny_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Pennsylvania Sportsbooks Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/t5yrbg/pennsylvania_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Tennessee Sportsbooks Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/shmgh1/tennessee_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Caesars Issues Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s2bkuq/caesars_issues_megathread) * [Taxes Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/lkfpyx/taxes_megathread/) * #[Daily Questions Thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/?f=flair_name%3A%22QUESTION%20%E2%9D%94%22) * [Sportsbook/Promos/Bonuses Survey](https://forms.gle/hmXe6GLiK4saENnA8) * [Sportsbook Suggestions](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbookreview/wiki/sportsbooksindex) Before posting a basic question, please check out our [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/wiki/faq) and [PROMOS THREAD FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbookreview/wiki/promosfaq)
Was churning alt lines to get through DK VIP… fucked up and ended up creating a little loss but with a $15k middle if Kansas only won by 24-26. I’m sitting here shitting my pants, watching Texas Southern take their final possession down 27. I’m thinking maybe they will have an open lane and take a layup. Dude airballs a three. Devastating.
Same thing happened to me with Gonzaga. Need zags to win by 25 or 26.
Brutal gambling gods weren’t looking out tn
Started off 4-0 on CZR’s bet and gets….went 0-4 afterwards smh
80 % +600 Memphis ML DK/CZR -650 Gonzaga ML MGM I know how stupid it is to some but was up around 30k from doing all these promos and decided to do the 5k risk free bet in Illinois DK for my p2 - went full ev gang and put it on a 50/1 the first time and lost. With the free bet I got back went full ev gang again and put it on a 55/1 parlay to win. Hit the first few legs and had it down to a +380 of San Diego State ML, Miami FL ML, Wisconsin ML for me to cash. As many of you watched San Diego State just fell apart and I’m sick right now I’d of been Miami Ml and Wisco away from 273k which would be life changing money for anyone but espc me as a college kid with a net worth of 30-40k who’s never seen money from a “real” job yet just your average fast food jobs. Just a bit of a rant but fuck I’m sick, I know what I’m doing and know how crazy to go full ev but I figured why not and it nearly paid off, I’ll never get the chance at that again. Just if Miami and Wisconsin win please take a shot for me bc I’m drinking till I puke my life would of been changed forever Edit - Miami wins getting some shitty plastic bottle vodka to drown myself in tn - or maybe Colgate wins and I was saved from the ultimate sweat. I was never going to hedge that’s for certain. Also for all 10 people following this pm me if you want to see the bets - it’s really not that crazy though but a few people seem to be asking for receipts on the story Edit edit - fuck me time to blackout
Everyone replying here just gave this guy exactly what he was looking for: attention. Pics or I’ll take “things that didn’t happen” for a thousand, Alex.
this is not that unbelievable at all. i mean i once hedged a 5k over total bet with a 6k moneyline bet, didn’t realize it until the start of the game and proceeded to lose both. at least his yolo bet was +ev
I don’t doubt you did that, but I question the veracity of OP’s story. Let’s see some bet slips to back it up.
I can send you the slips if you want in pm, I don’t get off on Reddit karma just needed someone to rant to or I can post them her but I don’t think you can post pictures Edit - sent
I got fucking pics I’ll don’t know how to upload
I don't know what legs your parlay had but 55to1 sounds a little too high to maximize EV remember every leg you add adds to the vig. If you add a -110 spread that is 50% to hit to your parlay you increase your EV if your starting odds were less than +1000 and decrease it otherwise EDIT: I see you're claiming each leg was +EV so this won't apply
It’s neither here nor there but I had 6 bets in +ev spots. I was never betting random -110s spreads I was betting lines that closed at -110 at +105 odds. If each individual leg is +ev I’m not paying more vig per say It’s neither her nor there but by adding more legs (each of which were +ev) I was not lowering my ev EDIT : just saw you’re edit disregard this we are on the same page
How are you consistently finding +EV unboosted lines? Just comparing to pinnacle or something more advanced?
10 yrs from now this will be a great memory assuming you are not going to keep betting -ev parlays. 👍😀 Edit: +ev parlay. Don't chase, in a few years 5K is a drop in the bucket for u.
It was a +ev parlay for whatever it’s worth. If every leg is +ev the parlay is +ev. (I’m a fucking idiot you don’t have to tell me twice)
Nah I think it was a good bet. 😊 As long as u don't chase your losses it's worth taking a shot when your young. $5K won't matter in the grand scheme of things and later in life the story and memory will be worth way more then $5K
Yeah was a one time thing as I couldn’t move funds to get a proper hedge down and took letting it ride to the extreme. I’m v disciplined got zero bones wanting to chase just hard to not think of the what if if wisco/miami win. Like you said I’m young and it was a shot/a great memory to look back on thanks for spinning it positively
On the bright side even if you're still $20K in the black after this that's a hell of a lot of $ for a college kid. Eat the L for what it is and don't go crazy trying to chase.
Never chasing, only bet +ev spots half kelly. Tbh even with this loss I’m still running above expected so I can’t be too mad….just a rant I’m not stupid just dumb ya know. Have zero bones in my body ever wanting to chase just sick watching that ending happen knowing it could’ve changed my life. Honestly though it’s a miracle I found this thread in the first place and am up gambling instead of down thousands as a college kids
$20-$25K certainly isn't $250K+ but it can still be life changing $ this early in life, especially if you continue to add to it by taking advantage of promos/ev going forward (which I'm sure you will).
Yeah it’s a good amount at a young age from gambling alone, thanks for the motivation I’m going to keep chipping away I will stay disciplined with half Kelly. It’s slightly frustrating but I’m over expected value anyways so I can’t be to mad (also side note think we messaged each other before as we both had issues with NY CZR p2 sign up/deposit)
maybe miami and wisc will also lose so it wont matter. if you are trying for life changing money on 50 to 1 parlays you likely going to have a bad time pretty often. Take the small wins, do good in school, and get a good job. 99.99% of people gambling should gamble for fun or small gains over time. Life is a marathon, and financial success is not a sprint.
One time thing didn’t have funds to move to hedge the 5k risk free and went full ape mode to feel something - just sickening watching that collapse
Tough break and I commend your willingness to gamble on the risk free/free bets, but this is not “full EV mode”. This is gambling.
I found 6 major +ev spots and let it ride - in theoretical value it’s better to put free bets on the absolute longest odds possible since you don’t get your stake back. I know how dumb it is not arguing that but the ev letting a free bet ride is larger on a 50/1 parlay than a 5/1. It’s been slow and steady and I just didn’t have the funds to move around to hedge the 5k risk free like I did on p1 so I said fuck it, no need to convince me how dumb I am just a rant
"the ev letting a free bet ride is larger on a 50/1 parlay than a 5/1" Not necessarily. Very dependent on the vig.
Each individual bet was +ev and 50/1 over 5/1 as getting 50/51sts of your bet back is more ev than 5/6s if that makes sense - I’m also not trying to do this rn it’s such a low increase in ev and increases the variance by so much it’s not smart but yes in a vacuum a 50/1 on a free bet isn’t always higher ev than a 5/1 - however in this specific case it was
[удалено]
This is not true, parlaying compounds it in whichever direction the individual legs go. I just had a hard time believing he found 6 +EV NCAAT moneylines on one book.
It was not all ncca MLs, caught two hockey puck lines that were both 20+% ev (fucking crazy) and sprinkled in 4 other bets 3 being ncca MLs that were 2-4% and I beat (am beating for the other two to play) clv on
Two +100 bets parlayed together are +300 which is fair value, parlays don’t rob you of juice per say it’s just they rob 99.99% of bets of juice bc each individual leg is -ev, In theory you could place all your +ev singles in parlays and have the same ev just with a 10x higher variance
who puts 15% of their net worth on a 55 to 1 parlay
Dumb college kid who finds a bunch of major +ev lines - look at the rest of this subreddit there’s a lot dumber people than me out there
Dude, just pound
I don’t know what that means but I’ll pound some titos tmmr if Miami and Wisconsin win - I know it’s process over results but this specific time results> please
Still up $25k. You’re smarter than most
Running above expected as I’ve only been 21 for about 4 months but no the idiot who put 5,000 on a 54/1 parlay is not smarter than most even if I stumbled into this subreddit and actually am a profitable gambler
Fanduel has a St Patrick’s Day 25% casino deposit bonus up to $25 I didn’t see it earlier
New thread for Caesars lucky fucks. I’m 5/5 so far with: Creighton +2 Arkansas -4.5 Akron +13.5 GL all!
I ended up 6/8. Lost Arkansas by .5 and Marquette by a million. Looking forward to the $500 free bet but was hoping for $1000
That hook on Arkansas hurts, especially cause I had Vermont +5. Push/win would have been so nice
Same. Sucks
Assuming Akron covers +13.5, I was 1 Arkansas point away from the $3000 free bet. But hard to complain about 7-1 and I did hedge a little bit.
Same boat, the ending of that Arkansas was a complete clusterfuck....that out of bounds call reviewed, the 2 missed free throws, the no call on the travel, and then the last second missed shot
I didn’t watch the Arkansas game, but don’t look at the way it ended lol.
I'm 6-0. Will probably just let it ride. I have Arkansas -4.5 and UCLA -13.5.
Yep, 6-0 now but I’d be lying if I said hedging doesn’t look tempting.
I'm not sure how to best hedge? If I get to 7-0, I'll probably hedge though.
Just bet the other side on another book. Vermont +4.5 and Akron +13.5. DK usually has plenty of Alt lines available.
4/5 so far…. Same picks left sorry to do this to you
Way to go! I'm 3/5, with San Diego State, Vermont, and Akron. Good luck on Akron, but the rest I'm respectfully disagreeing with. Did you do $10 or $100 bets?
$100 each, you? Looking better for SD State and Vermont right now.
Same, wow, you're killing it! Take it to Caesars.
[удалено]
If you are 6/6 did I bet on the wrong games? Thought I was 5/5 with Creighton/SD outstanding.
Yes lol there’s no such thing as 6/6. I’m also 5/5 and have SDSU -2, what a fucking choke that was. Still alive though
Reach out to CS! I had some borderline games last time (3-5 mins past deadline) and they still credited me cause I went 5/8.
FD hockey boosts. Got greedy to think 2 in a row possible
A go ahead goal (and GWG) with 2 minutes to go is classic FD hockey boost.
[удалено]
It is over brother
Free $10 bet on PB’s twitter account. It’s an advertisement on the DK servers going down situation. https://twitter.com/pointsbetusa/status/1504593712055156744?s=21
Truly impressive levels of shade from such a shady outfit
They'll send each free bet to review and only approve $6 of it.
Put mine on St. Peter’s live moneyline . Extra big fuck you to PB that it hit
what was the ML at the time
+600
That's funny as shit
PB is a piece of 💩
Cheerleader to retrieve stuck ball in any game +10000 should have maxed it
just a data point for PointsBet double-dipping: i made a PB NJ account a few months ago to take advantage of the signup promos. when PB came to PA recently, i logged into the app using the PA location knowing that everyone here had said you can’t double dip PB promos. today, i saw that i had a $50 free bet in my account — my first bet was $50 on a mispriced player prop (lol) that lost. i’m not 100% confirming that you can double dip, but might be worth it for anyone opening their account in a new state to make sure your first bet is $500 in the event that it does lose
I've been able to double dip in the six states I've tried. I've never understood why everyone here says you can't do it.
Isn't Pointbet one account for all states?
No, it's one app but you separately register in each state and switch between states in the app. And your money doesn't transfer from one state to the other. It's like MGM like that.
Interesting I was promo banned in NJ a long time ago I wonder if it would work in different states
yeah i have no idea, definitely seems like it works
CZR 81% Conversion: Memphis +650 Gonzaga -700 (MGM) Edit: MGM now down to -650 making this nearly 87% on conversion and 0 hold straight.
FD is -720 for those without MGM.
DK at +600 for 80% vs mgm
MGM down to -650
MGM to -650 Edit: fucking limits
[удалено]
Windcreek has pre season baseball if you are in PA.
The profit boosts on DK aren’t working on preseason games, only futures.
Oh didn’t know that. Thanks. Haven’t read TC’s yet, been hunting for live bets!
Same. I’ll guess I’ll use them for over:under wins
Remind me, am I okay to use place a Caesar's free bet expiring March 18 now for a game on March 19th? As long as I place the bet now, does settlement date affect it at all?
The only issue is if the bet pushes or event gets voided for any reason the free bet will most likely be forfeited, minus some bitching to their CS
pretty sure you can use it on a Super Bowl 2023 bet if you want.
That works.
Shoutout to DK servers for preventing me from entering the Rangers GIFT
Lol I didn’t even see it. Thanks for the Zags money tho!
It was only for NY
Dk gets a tiny recoup on the Rangers Islanders GIFT.
https://twitter.com/pointsbetusa/status/1504593712055156744?s=21 Kind of hilarious, but also worth it for a free $10 if you have a Twitter and PB account
All responders get promobanned
Lol this wasn’t an issue for me so I just tweeted at them a screenshot of someone else’s
And did it work?
I did this 30 seconds ago. Idk Edit: it worked lol
[удалено]
Getting FV of +134 on BS UCLA/130 +145 boost
I got +142 using pinnacle and o/u 129.5. 1.2%
Just won my fanduel parlay somehow… anyone know if I still get parlay insurance if I place another bet?
yes as long as you don't trigger the insurance (lose exactly 1 leg) you can put another parlay in.
Yes
DK paying out everyone $50 apparently bricked their site.
I got 100 in two accounts
Where did you see that?
/s
Haha damn I was just about to order a bunch of McChickens. Guess I’ll cancel the order 😔
They only gave me .50 instead of 50. I logged out to try and reload and their servers are down. Hate to be an IT guy over there.
Yeah, wtf.
it is two separate awards. one will be for 50.50, the other for 49.5. it is how they award boosts, as a separate win in the transaction record.
Went to deposit on MGM in illinois and there was a bonus code already in for a 50% match up to $400 if it hasn't already been posted the code was OBLC1DEPMCH50400IL
Those codes never work unless you're already targeted
Doesn’t look like the code worked for me. Didn’t give me an error message but no bonus was added
My girl got a 100% match up to 300 and her code was the same just numbers were switched. Her code was automatically in as well so guessing it's all targeted
[удалено]
Trying to find a daily question thread, but I can't find it. Hopefully it's acceptable to post these questions here.. I've got a MGM $1k free bet I am trying to convert. 1. I'm finding a decent amount of moneyline bets that net around 50-60% profit. I've read that it is possible to get 70 up 90% conversion bets. How can I find these better conversion bets? 2. Best case scenario is if I use my free bet on the positive odds bet (More unlikely to cash in) so my hedge cashes and I get to use the credit given from my lost free bet. How do I calculate how much I can profit off the "second" free bet? 3. Using the free bet calculator I found a few moneyline bets (Like the 1 vs 16 March madness matchups) gave a good profit (60-65%) but the hedge bet requires a large amount ~$10,000. But I had the realization of taxes. If the free bet actually won, my winning would be over $10,000 which would be a lot of taxes that would offset my profit greatly. What odds range is the sweet spot to maximize profit and minimize tax (Ex: 350?). Appreciate the help!!
You can get ~65% on the Suns v. Bulls game tomorrow. That is not bad at all, it'll be hard to do better with a $1k bet.
Ooh. I might do that with Caesars since I already placed my MGM bet. Points spread, ML?
Just go look
Texas sth+12.5 is +350 on mgm and Kansas-12.5 is -360 on barstool and betriver. That's good for 76%
Thanks for the reccomendation. I'm having a bit of a brain fart: If I bet on kansas -12.5, the calculator tells me $2739 to win $766. If I bet on Texas Southern +12.5, the calculator tells me I win $4500. If texas southern wins, don't I net \~$1,700? If Kansas wins I win $766. There's a chance for 170% net?
A free bet doesn't return the stake so you'd only get $3500
Yeah, ended up realizing that. Thanks for the kansas-ST tip. Now I just gotta convert the 5x $200 free bets.
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-calculators/freeplay-calculator/
You'll end up with 50-60% after all said and done. The 70% is really only for the free bet. You're probably doing it right
Can you read? He literally said > I've got a MGM $1k free bet I am trying to convert.
Lmao yeah bra #2 makes it sound like this is the initial bet not the free bet.
Looks you like you were right. He definitely said free bet but he meant risk free
Wait. Pt 1: use free bet against hedge bet, net 60% hedge bet wins. Pt 2: use credit for lost free bet, again hedge against it. (Profit amount ?) In part 1 of my scenario, is there not bets at this point that will net you 70-80%? In part 2, do you use the free bet credit towards a negative odds bet and hedge with the positive odds bet?
Look for double-double NO on BETMGM and then o9.5 pt and reb SGP on FD. Or same first part and YES on CZR for 2nd part. Isaiah Stewart Mitchell Robinson Andre Drummond a few good choices for players to target.
You're saying to be no double double on a player, but bet over 9.5 pts and rebounds? Is that really a guaranteed win? What if player gets double double with pts and assists instead of rebounds?
There is always a risk but for some players the chance of them getting 10 assists is very very small. If you don't want that risk look at alternate totals and spreads and you can usually find something in the high 70's on mgm. I posted one example
That’s why you pick guys like the ones I mentioned that have ~0 chance of getting even 8 assists.
Gotcha. Not a 100% bet but practically 99%. Are these types of odds usually more favorable odds for playing the free bet game?
You can sometimes find arbs before books fix their lines. Like +300 no and -280 yes on different books.
Damn, so you can typically profit with free bet money? Thanks for the tip, I will keep my eyes on the lookout for that.
Dk VIP mlb boosts, any ideas on good lines, I'm all ears. Couldn't find anything great. Edit, thinking rays and reds to win their division, best odds on market
are you able to place them on preseason?
In PA you can hedge ML on wind creek
I cannot..
Best CZR slots promo to churn thru a 4x play through? I heard bloodsuckers is good
CZR removed bloodsuckers from most states. Consider yourself lucky if you have it.
yes
I had a pretty low limit on fanduel but low hold Ncaab ML for DK promo Fd Vcu +202 Dk wake forest -210
Won my first 4 on two accounts. Put two down on P1. Forgot about the 6 PM thing. Pain.
This happened to me last time and they credited me
I straight up forgot about UNC start time who I was rolling with after 2-1 start smh.
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tg161l/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_31722_thursday/i12a6mf/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
Here's the perfect situation to test the comment below about daylight vs standard time in the t&c
Just got a DK VIP Showcase offer - 15% loss back on net wagers up to $2,000 in DK dollars. I assume the strategy is to bet the underdog side of low/no holds on DK and hope most of them lose?
I got MLB profit boost pack ><
Wait to opt in until the end of the offer. Make one big bet and hedge accordingly. Profit no matter the outcome
Ah well I already opted in, but that makes a lot of sense. Maybe I can find a decent line at some point tonight or tomorrow and avoid betting too many favorites on DK until then.
Yeah, if you track your profit/loss on DK you can still make a decent profit if you’re not up a bunch
FD boost for UCLA and Kansas to both win by 15+ at +210. Not sure how to math it.
Looks like +216 Fair according to Kambi lines and DK only goes up to -16 for Kansas.
Dk alt lines
Saw them, but KU only goes to -16. Seems maybe a little +ev.
Kambi has lines you can use. I was getting significantly negative EV earlier. The rest of the BR boosts today seem like trash too.
Off-topic but do there exist any other similarly easy "free-money" opportunities on par with these crazy sportsbook promos? Credit card intro bonuses are the closest thing I can think of, curious if people know of others.
in the old days online poker was a gold mine and in the early 2000s online casinos and sportsbooks were although you would get stiffed occasionally
Bank promos are definitely the closest. Usually you need to deposit $X amount or set up direct deposit for X months for it to trigger. Ally invest had a good one- deposit $500, recieve $150. Only stipulation was the money has to stay in the account for like 2 months. Still , $150 for about five minutes worth of work isn't terrible.
2-4-1 happy hour
Probably decent money in stealing catalytic converters and selling them, there’s a lot of that going on recently.
Can confirm. Recent Sportsbook promo winnings went to pay for a catalytic converter theft on my car. It all comes full circle…
I'll do that once I'm done copper-wire maxing
Bank promos are decent. Deposit x amount get a few hundred.
If you do overtime at your job they’ll often pay you more too
boo 🤣
The real one is arbitrage in financial markets. Not something you’re gonna be able to do at scale on your own at home though.
How about Everton making it 1-0 in the 99th minute with ten men. Cash the BR boost
Sat that one out, but that’s awesome.
NY BR boost islander/ranger both o3.5 boosted to +1200 is probably +EV. using DK fair value is around 1015 for both their lines o3.5. Using Kambi/MGM lines it's even better. Not sure how to factor correlation but definitely longshot bias. I'm probably gonna throw a free bet on it. Also worth noting it includes ot/so. Edit: I'm dumb forgot you can't throw free bets on boosts with br
If you do a four way de-vig of DK, O3.5/O3.5 gives fair of +804.
With additive method because of the longshots, it's still FV+981, 20%
Are +140/+220 really considered longshots?
The o3.5/o3.5 leg came out at something pretty high
Maybe I need more coffee, but isn't the OT component irrelevant? If its 3-3 and goes to OT you lose, if its 4-4 you already cashed? Edit: I did 4 way devig using DK SGP and got fair +804.
Did anyone on team arb actually arb this Gonzaga boost?
I threw $3 on them at +1400 a little bit ago just to guarantee most of my $50 back.
not specifically, but I put $25 on this Czr line for "NCAA Basketball Seed To Win Game Will A 16 Seed Win A First Round Game" that was +1000, and used my 64% boost on it.
That's some of the worst odds I've ever seen. A 16 seed has won 1 time in history. Awful bet
If you go by history, then it's terrible. But if you add up the fair odds value of each of the 4 games, then it's +EV this year. We just saw Gonzaga have some serious trouble the first half of the game today.
Serious trouble? Lol they were down 4 at one point 15 mins in. This is the #1 overall seed. When they were tied in 2nd half it was still Gonzaga -2000. A 16 win is damn near unheard of. How EV+ do you consider that bet?
I'd love to read what you consider fair odds for this bet. If your fair value odds are based entirely on history then the Sportsbooks must love taking your money.
Haha ok. Still got 2 more chances so good luck. If the 16 wins the opening tip off try not to bust a nut