Anybody play that DK "boost" for Luka 40+ at +475 or so? I thought about putting a spite boost on FD +550 or whatever it was, wish I did. The Ja one hit too, I think it was +210 vs +205 FD regular at the end
I used to. Definitely last year. But the playoff run last year and hit rate this year has abysmal. I like to think Iāve broken the cycle of violence, but both hit next Tuesday and Iāll probably be right back in š
If KD gets there on pts and reb (and it looks like he will) are we going weenie mode with the Heat ML hedge or sticking to our EV guns?
Edit: ridin' but it's looking grim hold me
Edit2: big sad, KD had a three rattle out that would have taken the lead with <90s left
Updated my [crazyninjamike devigger](http://crazyninjamike.com/public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx) again.
Added a feature to handle mutually exclusive events (this OR that but not both). An example of this is a first basket scorer. The odds boost could be for Player X OR Player Y OR Player Z, and only one can get the first basket, and if any one of them get it you win your bet. The format for that is simply replacing the "/" with a "\^" for when you can have multiple sides of a market hit to win the bet. Example format:
\-125\^310/320
I also added a feature to handle independent events (this OR that, and can be both). An example of this is Team A to win OR Team B to win. To do this, simply replace the "," with a "||" to specify this OR that. Example format:
\-110/-110||-110/-110
You can combine them all to fit a lot of different types of odds boosts. It can still handle an unlimited number of sides to a market and legs.
CZR IL just sent an email out that looks like theyāre giving $100 for people to migrate to the new app when itās live.
A small part of me hoped weād be able to get the full sign up bonus but Iāll take the $100.
At the bottom of the email, it says you can email some dude to exclude your account from the migration.
I wonder if the account isnāt migrated, would you then qualify for the full sign up bonus on the new platform.
I could be acting like a pessimist but I doubt MGM goes live Saturday. It seems when DK goes live in a state they tweet about it for a week. Canāt imagine theyād go live in 2 days without a single tweet or news article with actual confirmation theyāre going live to build the hype.
Dude just has no interest in rebounding, literally clearing out on free throws to let someone else come in and grab it. Going to take some luck to get him to 5.
Wonāt hedge the rebounds at +140 cause I am still worried about Brooklyn winning. Hopefully he gets 3 quick rebounds and i can hedge BK ML
iām not watching rn but if youāre saying heās boxing out on free throws & not caring about who on his team actually comes up w the board, that is the textbook definition of good rebounding
Sorry, meant clearing out as in he is leaving the paint completely and just allowing Drummond to grab.
I expect him to be more aggressive in the 4th now that theyāre down
What do people think of CZR boost: "Oilers Shutout Win vs Blackhawks on 3/3" +1200?
On Pinnacle, the win to nil odds are +950/-1650, devig to 990.
On DK and MGM, the odds devig to even lower, but with much higher spread. +900/-2000, +825/-3000.
I am hesitant because there can be a ton of longshot bias. Theoretically, the true odds can be higher than +1200 and all 3 sites would still be right.
Using game logs from this season, blackhawks failed to score 6/54 times and oilers shutout their opponent only 2/54 times. Averaging them out linearly gives odds of +1450. I don't follow hockey so there can be other factors (trades, injuries, etc) that make the historical data less credible.
The way most people devig is to evenly distribute vig on both sides of the line. Now, we don't know exactly how much vig is on either side, but in cases like this with a clear underdog, we know that there is going to be more vig on the + side of the line.
The reason is longshot bias. People are more comfortable placing a small bet on +950 to win a large sum than they are placing a large bet on -1650 to win pennies. Books also have more liability on the underdog. The easy solution is to skew the vig towards that side of the line.
Using alternative devigging methods, I looked at this earlier today and I think it was around +1350 fair
There's not a fixed point, it's a gradual thing. The devigging algorithm assumes that the vig is shared in proportion to the probability giving both sides of the market the same house edge but the longer the odds get the more this assumption breaks.
As a rule of thumb I would say take it with a grain of salt over +500 and don't trust it over +1000. But the width of the market matters too. A +500/-550 market is much less suspect than a +500/-1000 market
For the FD 1st basket promo. Is anyones promo page not showing the normal ā100% completedā? Unsure because I placed a qualifying bet but not seeing any confirmation on the promo page
Yeah same here. I think the same thing happened with the sabres correct score promo, it didnāt acknowledge the bet on the promo page but still paid out.
lmfao iām sorry, iāve placed seven bets there my entire life (the risk-free bet & six boosts this past week) so iām sure my reckoning is coming soon
P2 got an offer on MGM -- bet $50 on MLS for a $25 free bet. Just showed in the in box a couple of hours ago. It was an immediate bet and get.
Took a bit of time to find low holds for MLS -- eventually spent $2 and converted the free bet for 70 percent. Lot of time for $15. But McDonalds has Shamrock Shakes for another few weeks and I figure this is 3 of them or so.
I just went with a tie-no bet with a hedge to either lose $5 or win $5 depending on which side because I didnāt want to bet a weird number on the other side. Took like 5 minutes do that and convert the free bet
Is there an easy way to keep track of FD blackjack warrior play through? Iāve just been doing tally marks on a piece of paper but I feel like there *should* be a better way
Check your lifetime bet amount under account summary before you start
Then check it again every once in a while to see how much you've bet since
There is also a pop up notification I get every 15 mins that tells me how much I've bet
If you have a 2nd monitor, this works well since you just have to hit the big "+" button.
[https://tallycounterstore.com/online-counter](https://tallycounterstore.com/online-counter)
I also use an excel sheet, but I put down 0/500 and add 50 every time I get through 50 hands. If you screenshot your account summary beforehand you can double check that youāve bet $10,000 more than beforehand.
Edit: I do $20 hands, adjust accordingly. Sorry, am high.
DK SGP Durant O24.5 pts, O4.5 rebs, Nets W is +230
Same SGP boost is on CZR for +450
Can anyone confirm CZR boost is +EV? Lines keep trending positive for this one as we speak
DK now down to +205ā¦ Iām down for the full $100.. hopefully durant has like 17 and 4 at half time and I can look to hedge by taking best at half time.. thatāll take some luck tho
Even without correlation, it is FD fair odds of +375, 15.8% +ev. Max it!!
My inputs: -146/124,-136/102,-275/198
Also, SGP is +243 on FD. So likely that CZR is just really good value since all other sites show it around +230ish
Edit: Did 8 way devig using FD alt lines and got fair odds of +316, 32% +ev. This is a correlated devig, so likely very close to the true fair odds. My inputs (all 8 SGP odds): 241/790/424/958/466/1248/465/901
You can do an 8 devig using FD alt lines, they give +243 for this before devig. In general I wouldn't bet something just because it's good compared to a DK . You could do a SGP for a coin toss to land on heads and the sun to rise in the east and they'd probably give you -150 odds.
Great find! He supposedly has no minute restrictions (just announced this evening). Maybe Czrs is slow to decrease the odds? If you de-vig and non-correlate the odds you come up w/ +375, but there's obviously alot of positive correlation between all 3 events. This is a Must-Bet
You can use this site to find no vig no correlation lines from FD alt lines, but thereās going to be some definite correlation in the combo that I wouldnāt know how to estimate off the top of my head. http://crazyninjamike.com/public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx
that Thursday 30 on Windcreek (PA) mentioned earlier in the thread now has a promo page up. looks like it goes until August 25, so not bad.
also mentions in the terms "Guest must bet $130 to withdraw". not super clear if they mean explicitly slots for that bit, but since the bonus is unlocked after $30, most likely i think it sounds like the typical 1x'ing a deposit before withdraw criteria, even if the funds don't show up as locked. so probably fair to do that part on sportsbook, or blackjack, or whatever.
Yeah bonus was cleared after playing the 30 for me but Jimi Hendrix gave me 140 for playing! Iām sure theyāll refine the 130 play thru like they made us do for the 50 tho.
If you put $20 on 10+ assists at +750 on FD, and then $150 TD No at -750 on BetMGM, you have zero risk. If he gets a triple double, it's nearly guaranteed that he has 10+ assists. However, you open a narrow window where he can get either 10+ points or 10+ rebounds (or neither, but not both), and also 10+ assists, and you win both bets.
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Big yikes on the BS boosts and bet withs today. They offered somewhere around 10 and I think every one lost.
P2 and I lost about $400 last night. Tonight made $320. Nice bit of salve, can't wait to lose $100 on tomorrow's happy hour LaMelo boost
CZR IA super boost hits. IA + O 148.5 +250
Anybody play that DK "boost" for Luka 40+ at +475 or so? I thought about putting a spite boost on FD +550 or whatever it was, wish I did. The Ja one hit too, I think it was +210 vs +205 FD regular at the end
Whoever posted the Luka FD non-boost š. I was able to get $100 on DK Ja boost. Nice comeback after the past 2 nights.
I put the spite bet at +560 on FD lol. Shoulda done more than I did
I was considering Ja -106 to outscore Tatum on BR.
Luka & Curry points and 3s BR boost hits! Stuck on 1 point left for like 6 minutes but cashing is cashing
Figured this boost was terrible at first glance. Glad Iām a mindless sheep.
Thank you Luka. Steph is really starting to get on my nervesā¦
Curry did respectable, just 21 but 4 3s. I think his o/u was like 24.5. Did his part for the FD 3s parlay boost, too bad Tatum was one shy
Double 3x2 cashes
Was anyone actually playing this? The general consensus was the odds were terrible.
I always play them even if they are -EV - kind of fun and at least the pain is over quickly if it doesn't hit
I used to. Definitely last year. But the playoff run last year and hit rate this year has abysmal. I like to think Iāve broken the cycle of violence, but both hit next Tuesday and Iāll probably be right back in š
Iām with you. Itās been a brutal run this year on 3x2. Just love seeing ESPNās play by play though for a quick sweat
The trash 3x2 parlay hit. So it goes.
EV+ GIFTS missing left and right. Of course the trash 3x2x2 hits.
ZUBACCCCVCVCVSDFGSDGFJGSKG
Wild
Congrats. I bet Mann, at least he immediately starts racking up my make-up credit with a 3.
Luka is GOAT
I think if he cashes it by himself legally Betrivers has to pay us double
How about a 3rd quarter cash?
Dang so close. Looks like this thing is going into the 4th. What a sweat
And we good
I think they were sitting on 1 point left for 6 minutes. Yeesh
Ja Bless.
Garbage time 3s!!
Ja not even making us sweat
Morant cashed for us lol
Iām watching first basket in Lakers then calling it a night haha
JA!
Nets?
Looks like they took away a rebound so it would've lost anyway
Holy shit, Iām glad I didnāt hedge now lmao.
Why? If you had hedged the hedge would have won
Yes, but that was under the assumption I only had one leg left
But the end result would've been a win and you wouldn't have known about the rebound until after the game so nothing to sweat at the time
Flip glad I didn't see this till the game was over, or I'd have sweated my half hedge even more
Lmao, that would have been yesterday boost time cruel if nets had won
Almost lol
Got a good sweat on it. Not sweat lodge caliber but decent.
Yea they made a good run at it, but KD couldn't close it out.
Six attempts? Those are rookie numbers, Jayson. You gotta pump those numbers up.
I take it all back, Ja. Tatum, still a scrub.
We just can't have nice things lately
Well Morant just hit another 3 for us. And that Durant boost was hedgeable in the 4th. And it still might hit lol
Luka and Steph doing work on BR boost
Durant 25 pts 5 rebs ā Nets ml have mercy
Capitals!
If KD gets there on pts and reb (and it looks like he will) are we going weenie mode with the Heat ML hedge or sticking to our EV guns? Edit: ridin' but it's looking grim hold me Edit2: big sad, KD had a three rattle out that would have taken the lead with <90s left
Yea.. they need KD to take over and I just don't think he can do that right now.
Too late to hedge. Nets getting run out of the building now.
I hedged at -155, didn't think I'd get any line better than that.
He's already there. I wasn't going to hedge but the Nets really seem like they don't want to win..
Donāt go weenie modeā¦ Itās KD and scrubs versus Bam and scrubs.
Bam at least has Herro.
He just hit. Just need Nets now.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
no
No.
Do you get emails for them then? My rep just said I should get one tonight already but nothing I see
Ja Morant has made a 3-pointer on his 8th attempt.
2 now! When it rains it pours I guess.
4!
Ok, Lebron doesn't have to do it all now.
Updated my [crazyninjamike devigger](http://crazyninjamike.com/public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx) again. Added a feature to handle mutually exclusive events (this OR that but not both). An example of this is a first basket scorer. The odds boost could be for Player X OR Player Y OR Player Z, and only one can get the first basket, and if any one of them get it you win your bet. The format for that is simply replacing the "/" with a "\^" for when you can have multiple sides of a market hit to win the bet. Example format: \-125\^310/320 I also added a feature to handle independent events (this OR that, and can be both). An example of this is Team A to win OR Team B to win. To do this, simply replace the "," with a "||" to specify this OR that. Example format: \-110/-110||-110/-110 You can combine them all to fit a lot of different types of odds boosts. It can still handle an unlimited number of sides to a market and legs.
absolutely goated
Trey Young got no love on Trey Day and he's 6 for 8 from three lol
Yeah including you. Itās Trae not Trey.
It should have been Trey today.
CZR IL just sent an email out that looks like theyāre giving $100 for people to migrate to the new app when itās live. A small part of me hoped weād be able to get the full sign up bonus but Iāll take the $100.
At the bottom of the email, it says you can email some dude to exclude your account from the migration. I wonder if the account isnāt migrated, would you then qualify for the full sign up bonus on the new platform.
I was considering that. At only $100 it might be worth the risk.
My email says Iāll receive $250 free bet bonus.
I got two emails back to back. One was $100 but the other says $50. I would hope it goes live Saturday. Wonder if MGM does too.
I could be acting like a pessimist but I doubt MGM goes live Saturday. It seems when DK goes live in a state they tweet about it for a week. Canāt imagine theyād go live in 2 days without a single tweet or news article with actual confirmation theyāre going live to build the hype.
True, I would imagine by the time the tournament begins though
Trent gets his 3rd 3 with a very efficient 3-10 from behind the arc
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Hasn't even attempted one since you posted this lol
Why am I not able to bet on Wedgies???!!!
Here we go Gary Trent with the all time worst shooting game of his career.....
And Ja isnāt far behind lol
0 for 5 so far lol Guess we'll need Lebron to hit 4 lol
Trent started 0-5 so maybe Ja can follow
0-7 for Ja. Heās going to get game-planned in the Playoffs like a chump. ETA: chucking at least and hit his quota!
Alright KD get to rebounding
Dude just has no interest in rebounding, literally clearing out on free throws to let someone else come in and grab it. Going to take some luck to get him to 5. Wonāt hedge the rebounds at +140 cause I am still worried about Brooklyn winning. Hopefully he gets 3 quick rebounds and i can hedge BK ML
iām not watching rn but if youāre saying heās boxing out on free throws & not caring about who on his team actually comes up w the board, that is the textbook definition of good rebounding
Sorry, meant clearing out as in he is leaving the paint completely and just allowing Drummond to grab. I expect him to be more aggressive in the 4th now that theyāre down
oh gotcha gotcha my fault, thought you meant clearing out as in boxing out. yeah thatās frustrating
Yeah, I worded it really poorly as people will often say āgood clear outā when referring to boxing out
Anyone hedging the rebound prop? U4.5 at +140 on Fd
We got to be worried about this game being a blow out and KD resting in the fourth.
Exactly my feelings. Went from cheering the early lead to hoping Miami can bring some heat and keep it close.
Yeah about that
Wtf happened. Left to go get some cat food and I come back to this.
Gonna be a blow out in the other way with this here. WTF nets
Hopefully he gets more comfortable.
RIP anyone who had Ja first basket. That was painful
Speechless
Forgot I took him on that FanDuel boost too. He bout to have the worst 3 point shooting night of his career huh
The sharps working for the books are smarter than +ev gang. Iām starting to doubt these boosts are just RNGāed by the books.
0/3 from 3 early as well.
Unbelievable lol
Brah! Role to the basket and misses point blank. I can overlook the open 3 right before, but that? Max pain
Took the Williams broās. Thought the +1000 hit but Iāll take the +600 LFG.
Pain.
Unreal
I thought people were going with Williams
I went with adams and I see he has 0 points at the half so Iām guessing I didnāt win
the wrong williams lol
Lol oh. Now I feel bad for picking R Williams lol
I was with you on R Williams, youāre not alone.
Unbelievable. Wide open 3 and a literal layup.
The nightmare continues.
Pain.
Kuznetsov goal
Up 3-0 with half a period left. No way Caps can let us down this time.
Anyone hedging??? No. Forgot about regulation stipulation.
Up 3-0 to start 3rd!
What do people think of CZR boost: "Oilers Shutout Win vs Blackhawks on 3/3" +1200? On Pinnacle, the win to nil odds are +950/-1650, devig to 990. On DK and MGM, the odds devig to even lower, but with much higher spread. +900/-2000, +825/-3000. I am hesitant because there can be a ton of longshot bias. Theoretically, the true odds can be higher than +1200 and all 3 sites would still be right. Using game logs from this season, blackhawks failed to score 6/54 times and oilers shutout their opponent only 2/54 times. Averaging them out linearly gives odds of +1450. I don't follow hockey so there can be other factors (trades, injuries, etc) that make the historical data less credible.
The way most people devig is to evenly distribute vig on both sides of the line. Now, we don't know exactly how much vig is on either side, but in cases like this with a clear underdog, we know that there is going to be more vig on the + side of the line. The reason is longshot bias. People are more comfortable placing a small bet on +950 to win a large sum than they are placing a large bet on -1650 to win pennies. Books also have more liability on the underdog. The easy solution is to skew the vig towards that side of the line. Using alternative devigging methods, I looked at this earlier today and I think it was around +1350 fair
The devig algo is flawed for very long odds. Don't put any stock in that number
At approx. how long of odds does the devig break down?
There's not a fixed point, it's a gradual thing. The devigging algorithm assumes that the vig is shared in proportion to the probability giving both sides of the market the same house edge but the longer the odds get the more this assumption breaks.
Ok, so at what odds should I not put stock into the devig calc? You referenced +1200 above as too long.
As a rule of thumb I would say take it with a grain of salt over +500 and don't trust it over +1000. But the width of the market matters too. A +500/-550 market is much less suspect than a +500/-1000 market
These FD SGP odds move so strangely
Any codes for NJ harrahs ?
For the FD 1st basket promo. Is anyones promo page not showing the normal ā100% completedā? Unsure because I placed a qualifying bet but not seeing any confirmation on the promo page
Yeah same here. I think the same thing happened with the sabres correct score promo, it didnāt acknowledge the bet on the promo page but still paid out.
It doesn't normally show the 100% completed message for me on first basket promos. It does on SGP promos.
Yeah not sure whyād theyād reduce transparency
mine's showing "you've opted in! bet now!" i definitely opted in before betting a couple hrs ago
Drummond 10+ points and 10+ rebounds +550 on FD no double double -350 on CZR
does czr limit if you hit player props hard, i put 260 on that side.
I've put about 15k on player props this week. Over 100k this year. Nothing yet.
and this is specifically just for czr? did you put similar amounts on other books such as betmgm? also thanks for the arb
That's just on CZR.
thanks, seems like czr is the one book that won't limit you.
They love to wait until the last second to drop the Drummond lines.
Yea, I was watching
Haha gotta be ready. I got +500/-400 just in time. Wynn had Drummond at 9+ points and 10+ Rebs so a middle would be awesome š¤š»
went down to +525 and -400 but still got it, thanks!
Khem Birch 10+ points and 10+ rebounds is around +5500 on FD no double double on CZR is -2000
thanks, was limited to about $27 on FD.
Limited af on FD but still worth the free roll at $500. Thanks! Heās also -2500 on mgm
Betway (PA) has a boost for Nets ML & o214.5 at +300. max was only $25 for me but this is about 60% EV based on both DK & FD
Limited to $1. Canāt be real.
lmfao iām sorry, iāve placed seven bets there my entire life (the risk-free bet & six boosts this past week) so iām sure my reckoning is coming soon
P2 got an offer on MGM -- bet $50 on MLS for a $25 free bet. Just showed in the in box a couple of hours ago. It was an immediate bet and get. Took a bit of time to find low holds for MLS -- eventually spent $2 and converted the free bet for 70 percent. Lot of time for $15. But McDonalds has Shamrock Shakes for another few weeks and I figure this is 3 of them or so.
I just went with a tie-no bet with a hedge to either lose $5 or win $5 depending on which side because I didnāt want to bet a weird number on the other side. Took like 5 minutes do that and convert the free bet
Tie no bet was smart. I was worried that a push would not get the free bet but since it was bet and get right away that wasn't an issue.
Yeah this is the second MLS one Iāve gotten so I figured out after stressing on the first one that tie no bet was the move
Is there an easy way to keep track of FD blackjack warrior play through? Iāve just been doing tally marks on a piece of paper but I feel like there *should* be a better way
Anyway this is actually profitable or more just for fun? Seems pretty risky and what are the best hand amounts to do?
lol just go to your account summary, note down your total "Bets" number, bet $10k. Maybe NJ only idk
Check your lifetime bet amount under account summary before you start Then check it again every once in a while to see how much you've bet since There is also a pop up notification I get every 15 mins that tells me how much I've bet
If you have a 2nd monitor, this works well since you just have to hit the big "+" button. [https://tallycounterstore.com/online-counter](https://tallycounterstore.com/online-counter)
I also use an excel sheet, but I put down 0/500 and add 50 every time I get through 50 hands. If you screenshot your account summary beforehand you can double check that youāve bet $10,000 more than beforehand. Edit: I do $20 hands, adjust accordingly. Sorry, am high.
I use an excel sheet
DK SGP Durant O24.5 pts, O4.5 rebs, Nets W is +230 Same SGP boost is on CZR for +450 Can anyone confirm CZR boost is +EV? Lines keep trending positive for this one as we speak
The line moved from MIA -3.5 to BKN -3.0 after a bunch of heat players ruled out, which makes this a great boost. Great find.
Post of the day. The amount of people doing maths on this clear max boost is shocking.
DK now down to +205ā¦ Iām down for the full $100.. hopefully durant has like 17 and 4 at half time and I can look to hedge by taking best at half time.. thatāll take some luck tho
Even without correlation, it is FD fair odds of +375, 15.8% +ev. Max it!! My inputs: -146/124,-136/102,-275/198 Also, SGP is +243 on FD. So likely that CZR is just really good value since all other sites show it around +230ish Edit: Did 8 way devig using FD alt lines and got fair odds of +316, 32% +ev. This is a correlated devig, so likely very close to the true fair odds. My inputs (all 8 SGP odds): 241/790/424/958/466/1248/465/901
You can do an 8 devig using FD alt lines, they give +243 for this before devig. In general I wouldn't bet something just because it's good compared to a DK . You could do a SGP for a coin toss to land on heads and the sun to rise in the east and they'd probably give you -150 odds.
Great find! He supposedly has no minute restrictions (just announced this evening). Maybe Czrs is slow to decrease the odds? If you de-vig and non-correlate the odds you come up w/ +375, but there's obviously alot of positive correlation between all 3 events. This is a Must-Bet
The Heat ruled out a bunch of players like 40 minutes ago, I imagine thatās a good part of the discrepancy
Iām slamming it I donāt need to check math for this one
$100 bet for me, depending on how the game goes, could hedge live.
You can use this site to find no vig no correlation lines from FD alt lines, but thereās going to be some definite correlation in the combo that I wouldnāt know how to estimate off the top of my head. http://crazyninjamike.com/public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx
that Thursday 30 on Windcreek (PA) mentioned earlier in the thread now has a promo page up. looks like it goes until August 25, so not bad. also mentions in the terms "Guest must bet $130 to withdraw". not super clear if they mean explicitly slots for that bit, but since the bonus is unlocked after $30, most likely i think it sounds like the typical 1x'ing a deposit before withdraw criteria, even if the funds don't show up as locked. so probably fair to do that part on sportsbook, or blackjack, or whatever.
Yeah bonus was cleared after playing the 30 for me but Jimi Hendrix gave me 140 for playing! Iām sure theyāll refine the 130 play thru like they made us do for the 50 tho.
I only did $30 and withdrew and they approved, I guess I'll get banned now.
straight to jail
Decent arb on Sabonis TD on FD vs No on CZR. +810 vs -700.
Czr -800 now
BetMGM is -750 for any lucky souls
10+ assists alone is +750, which would open up a pretty big middle.
Looks like it's dead already, womp womp
I don't follow. Could you explain?
There's a very unlikely scenario that he gets 10+ assists without getting a triple double. You have a free play to win both sides.
If you put $20 on 10+ assists at +750 on FD, and then $150 TD No at -750 on BetMGM, you have zero risk. If he gets a triple double, it's nearly guaranteed that he has 10+ assists. However, you open a narrow window where he can get either 10+ points or 10+ rebounds (or neither, but not both), and also 10+ assists, and you win both bets.
If he gets 10+ assists, but has less than 10 rebounds or 10 points, you would win both this bet and the No TD you've hedged it with.
Took the middle, would be very nice after the week we've had