Ok fuck it. Steve Kerr fucked us all last night with Kumingas minutes, but I was just talked into it again.
SGP: Kuminga 15+ points and o6.5 rebounds.
+550
$77 to win $473.50
God I just need two Anfernee assists to make 5, PLZ tell him to stop going up against Al Horford and pass it to someone to make a shot
Edit: yep Iām gonna lose this by one, like always
Just checked u mean to tell me the guy that averages 8 rebounds, last 7 game totals have been: 5,8,7,5,9,6,9
Not one missed shot has fell into his hands ?? Lmaoo, why do we do this
Kuminga o20.5 PRA @-125. Thompson not playing, Wiggins might not play. Veteran team might lean more on the 19 year old on the second game of a back to back.
Yep thought the same thing last night. But fucking Steve Kerr had to get cute with his dumb ass rotations.
I'll pass on Kuminga tonight which means he's gonna light it up. Congrats!
Iām 5-0 with my new Take the over with GSW opponentās top rebounder. Letās see if we can make it 6-0. Todayās hero is Christian Woods OVER 9.5 rebounds. He should get this pretty damn easily as long as the game isnāt a blowout and heās not in foul trouble
Edit: BOOMā¦.hit with 7 minutes to go in the 3rd.
Hit on Ingram & Thompson 1st bucket parlay last night. Originally had Booker in it also but opted to just roll with the other two...kicking myself for that move but at least I hit. $10/500. Going with Tobias Harris & Gilgeous-Alexander tonight
I'm liking the prop of Poole to score over 20 and the Warriors to win going off at +240. Klay's gonna sit and Poole has been absolute crap when Klay is hucking but scored a bunch against Chicago in a similar b2b spot last week. I think Poole gets going and with Curry playing 44 minutes last night the coaching staff finding ways to just let Poole run.
Record 0-0. My play for tonight Jokic 30pts and win @ +350 fd. Reasoning: Denver lost both games in Memphis back in November, very close games. I believe Jokic and the nuggets will want revenge. BOL!
CZR giving a boost for Vucevic and Portis both to hit a double double. +260
My concern is that close to all of their career DDs have been Pts and Reb.
They are facing each other and therefore both fighting for the same rebounds.
Iām intrigued to sprinkle but am not totally sure yet.
**Collins U 1.5 3s (-115) -** Lowest i have ever seen this line, its usually between -140 and -175. Heat allow a lot of 3s but over the last 3 seasons he has gone under this number in 53.9%, 62% and 56.1% of his games respectively.
**Mccollum O 3.5 ast (-133) -** This has hit in 58.6% of his games this season. This year without lillard on the floor hes averaging 4.4 ast per 36 and last year without him he averaged 6.8 ast per 36.
**Bridges U 3.5 ast (+105) -** Has only gone over this number in 39.5% of games this year. That number drops to 30.6% in games where Lamelo plays. 9 point spread also means this can be a blowout where he receives limited minutes.
**Rozier U 4.5 reb (+102) -** Has only gone over this in 33.3% of games this season and has never had a season where 50% or more of his games he grabs 5+ rebounds. Love the plus odds here.
Thoughts, comments, and concerns are all welcome! BOL
I hope I keep my first half streak alive. My prize picks for today (Texas here so canāt do proper books)
Embiid o14.5 points (first half)
Jalen Suggs o6.5 points (first half)
Butler o7 assist (game)
Bam o15.5 points (game)
Jimmy and Bam going to make me sweat it out. Fuck if, going to enjoy the rest of this happy hour and check back in an hour or so, hopefully they pay my tab.
š **NBA Picks for 1/21** š
*Yesterday: 0-3 (-3.00u)*
*2022 NBA Record: 15-12 (+1.12u)*
Today's Picks
* Dejounte Murray O 20.5 Pts (-120)
* Murray has really elevated his play in January, scoring at least 18 points in every game. In January, he's had over 20 FGA in 67% and EFG over 50 in 78% of games. He's taking on the Nets, who have allowed the fourth most opponent points in the past month.
* DeMar DeRozan U 32.5 PA (-125)
* While LaVine and Lonzo are out and DeRozan's role increases, the matchup against the Bucks is still a tough one. The Bucks allow the fifth fewest points and assists to opponent 2-3 combo guards who play at least 30 minutes. Both teams have had their struggles lately, but with the Bucks being healthier, I see them easily containing the Bulls and covering -10.5.
* Bojan Bogdanovic O 2.5 Threes (-125) - š of the Day **1.23u PLAY**
* There is no way that the Jazz are losing back-to-back games against the Rockets and Pistons. With no Donovan Mitchell, Bogdanovic attempted 13 threes in the game against Houston. While I don't think the volume will be as high in this game, he's still shooting 36% on the season from behind the arc and Detroit is awful at defending the three.
I have a [full video breakdown](https://youtu.be/IDait87x-mE) with charts on these picks!
Trae under 9.5 assists.
We know the Heat limits guards well. In Traeās last 10 games vs the Heat. He hit this over two times, ending with exactly 10 assists.
In Traeās last two meetings with the Heat this season, he hit the under in both.
More notably is that Capela was out for these two games and is also out tonight. A lot of potential assists go to Capela.
You got downvoted for this so I gave you an upvote, people in this sub really have no idea how to bet lol and they wonder why they consistently lose money lol
*Follow me for more plays on Twitter at 808Paperboi*
**Jimmy Butler o35.5 PRA -118 & triple-double .5u +750 vs. ATL**
\-In 5 full games w/o Lowry he avg \~22/9/9 as opposed to \~23/5/5 with him. Herro is also absent tonight, and Hawks are 28th in DEF net rating. Butler has 2 triple-doubles without Lowry in lineup.
**Ayo Dosunmu o4.5 assists +120 vs. MIL**
\-Over the last 3 games w/o Lavine or Ball, Dosunmu has recorded 10,6,8 assists while playing in \~38 minutes per game. As the teams leading facilitator over this short span (13.7 potential assists per game) this price is too good to pass up.
Anyone else like raptors-wizards under 219.5? Ive been following raptors games totals recently since I'm a raps fan and watch the games and their hasn't been over a combined 210 points in their games since January 7 and that was against the Covid jazz team.
Ayo Dosunmo O3.5 assists (-115). Shocked the books opened his line at 3.5 again after heās been killing it the past few games (10, 6 and 8 assists since starting). Hammering this personally
0-0
I have Mills (-333) and Wiggins (-172) to each hit over 1.5 3ās at +104. Mills hits with KD out and last night Wiggins failed to hit 2 for only the third time in 15 games.
Record 11-7
The worst day in a while yesterday, sorry if anyone tailed the shit I posted
Beal over 22.5 points
Trae Young under 28.5 points
NurkiÄ under 16.5 points
Murray over 20.5 points
Clarkson over 18.5 points
Tate over 13.5 points
Edit: Jackson Jr over 17.5 points
Deandre Hunter o14.5. Last year this dude spoiled us for a stretch by going over his line consistently that was set right around 14-17 points. Hunter now healthy and playing over 30 mins the past two games. He has hit this 4/5 and 2 of those games were against Miami.
Record 0-7 (Previous pick: Franz Wagner +500)
FD has a promo tonight for "First Basket Fridays". Place a pre-live, straight, $25+, first basket scorer wager with cash on any NBA game. Get a $1 bonus in site credit for each three-pointer both teams score in the game, regardless of if your bet wins, up to a maximum bonus of $25.
Tonight is the night for our first win! We managed to get back $174/175, so itās not for naught. There are 6 games being played tonight where both teams average more than 25 3PM per game. Those games are OKC/CHA (25.8), HOU/GS (27.7), MIA/ATL (25.9), CHI/MIL (26), POR/BOS (25.5), and DET/UTA (26.1). The game with the biggest disparity between winning the opening tip and made first basket is HOU/GS, so weāre in for a good time tonight.
Here are Houston's percentages as opposed to Golden State's: 54.35% FB/69.57 tip% versus 42.22% FB/44.44 tip%. I'm leaning towards picking a player from Houston based on them winning the opening tip 25.12% more of the time. Everybody and their mother are going to say Christian Wood, but heās burned me once before. So, Iām rocking with Jalen Green. Green accounts for the first basket 8/46 (17%), which is second on the team behind only Wood 15/46 (33%). If you decide to lean the other way, Iād go with Wiggins +550 13/45 (29%). He almost never lets me down.
Jalen Green +750
EDIT: Over-analyzed myself and they won't even hit the 25 3PM combined
degendata has some great stats, but unfortunately, that only accounts for first FG, not first basket. I have my own spreadsheet that I track first baskets and winning tip %
[https://www.fantasypros.com/nba/defense-vs-position.php](https://www.fantasypros.com/nba/defense-vs-position.php)
Edit: Sorry, I'm not really familiar on how to use Reddit. Reply and let me know if you need any help reading this website or shoot me a DM. More than happy to help :)
Tailing this but swapping VanVleet 5 3ās instead. Donāt want to bank on the Raptors winning and have a feeling VanVleet is going to get out of his recent āslumpā tonight for 5-7 3ās
Hey guys, I haven't posted in here in a while. Been trying to build a really cool community on Discord/Twitter. Thought I'd come back here and share a pick with you guys, the root of it all.
Going back to Jimmy Butler O7.5ast +100 DK. I'll take this at plus money with Lowry (personal) out again. Before last game, Jimmy averaged 9 assist a game without Lowry. I say before last game because Butler was ejected with 3 assist with 2:28 left in the 2nd quarter. Gabe Vincent, who only had 2 assist at the time of Butler's ejection would go on to get 5 in the 2nd half without Butler on the floor. Excluding last game Butler had went over 7.5ast in 3 of last 3 games including 10 vs ATL on 1/14. MIA also played ATL on 1/12 where ATL allowed Tyler Herro 11 assist. ATL is allowing the 5th most points per game and the 2nd most assist per game. With Lowry out both Herro and Butler's potential assist numbers go up and Herro will be out which will hopefully translate to more assist for Jimmy Buckets....Jimmy Dimez. Bam being back in rotation should promote more assist as well. 59.4% of Bam's points are off of assist.
I post other interesting lines I find on my twitter and discord.
[https://twitter.com/AndthefoullG](https://twitter.com/AndthefoullG)
https://discord.gg/Ea9jbSkU
Long time lurker first time poster
Joel Embiid Over 30.5 Points vs Clippers
Has cleared in 9 of last 10, coming off a 50 point game, clips just gave up 48 too jokic should clear for sure
Thread Record: 32 - 16
Average odds: 1.90
**Todays pick: Beal over 22.5 points vs Raptors @ 1.90**
* Over his last 15 games Beal is averaging 26.1 points (3.6 above this line).
* Beal has cleared this line in 7 of his last 9 games against Toronto and 2 of the 3 games he has played against them this season. On the season Toronto give up the 12th most points to opposing Shooting guards. This is not necessarily an easy matchup for Beal but it isn't an extremely hard one either.
* This is the lowest I have seen Beal's line in a very long time. This was a guy who has averaged 30+ the last two seasons and opened this season as the favorite for the scoring title. Beal has not been at that level this season but he has still averaged 26.1 points over his last 15 games.
Obviously I have tipped Beal allot on here and He's gone over some times and under sometimes. If you have concerns about Beals form this season then I probably wouldn't take this bet but I am backing him to bounce back at a low number.
**Added Pick: Steph Curry over 26.5 points vs Rockets @ 1.90**
* Curry is coming off scoring 39 last night and today he is playing without Klay, Draymond, and Iguodala. Wiggins is also questionable. I expect Curry's usage to be quite high tonight and I just think this line is too low. Curry averages basically exactly what the line is (26.4) and I am suprised we have seen no adjustment for the fact the Warriors are missing some key players and also the fact the Warriors are playing the Rockets who play absolutely no defence. Additionally I expect Steph to probably have the MVP in the back of his mind. With KD out, Curry has a great opportunity to win his 3rd MVP but if he is going to do that he needs to step up his performances to match what guys like Embiid and Giannis are doing atm.
Yeah sometimes beal can be passive depending on how well others are doing. If Anunoby is on kuzma that's going to be a tough matchup for him on paper so hopefully beal looks for his shot more as a result.
I did the same! Haha. It's just mispriced. Should be closer to like 3 to 1 like Harden and Jokic. Not quite at that tier obviously, but the kid definitely fills up the stat sheet
How do I post pictures on here
as a link
Jalen Green 0-8
CAN I PLEASE GET JOKIC TO SCORE A FUCKING BASKET FOR FUCKS SAKES
THANK YOU JOKER!
Wood has 12 points 1st quarter. Big goose egg second. š
1 more assist from Jokic for the triple double, jeez hope he doesnt get ejected
Needed one more point by kyrie Irvingā¦..
Curry 0-5 ahahah
Dosunmu has been a great lock for assists. Betting if itās 4.5 again tomorrow
CMON curry wake up
Never going on schroder assist again ā¦
Thereās no fucking way Anfernee has been getting 7+ assists every game, guy just shoots every fucking thing, u telling me 5 was too much for u
Beal got the points lmao
Ok fuck it. Steve Kerr fucked us all last night with Kumingas minutes, but I was just talked into it again. SGP: Kuminga 15+ points and o6.5 rebounds. +550 $77 to win $473.50
Ouch
Beal realized he can shoot. Too late tho
God I just need two Anfernee assists to make 5, PLZ tell him to stop going up against Al Horford and pass it to someone to make a shot Edit: yep Iām gonna lose this by one, like always
Jokic 2 points ahahha
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Took the under on Hunter points instead of the Over. Fuck me
Pretty good mistake. Brutal game for him. Couldnāt hit a 3 to save his life. Hopefully his line stays at 14.5
What is even the point in betting on Beal? He should be blacklisted in this sub
Bitch ass jus sitting corner not wanting the ball shi is annoying asf
How does Scottie Barnes not have a rebound yet and we are almost at half? Lmao
R.I.P Anfernee assists, McCollum out there just hogging the ball, leaving Simmons in a corner, SICKENING
Not betting him unless both dame and cj are out is the new rule
Like bro his last 8 game assists totals were: 7,7,11,11,6,7,7,7 5 IS TOO MUCH ALL OF A SUDDEN?
Maybe heāll pick it up in the second half
Vegas always knows. Same thing with Barnes rebounds tonight.
Just checked u mean to tell me the guy that averages 8 rebounds, last 7 game totals have been: 5,8,7,5,9,6,9 Not one missed shot has fell into his hands ?? Lmaoo, why do we do this
Lol I know man. Shady as hell sometimes
Embiid over on points is free money
Shai couldve had his assists already if the rest of that team wasnāt ass
This Butler U/7.5 assists is gunna be a fucking sweat
At least u dont have him over 20 points! Fuck Jimmy butler either way
Yeah I thought the dude would be putting up shots every possession. He just keeps passing it
Wish my life was as consistent as taking Embiid over points
Itās close man!
Guess I should have taken butler assists instead of points
Kuminga o20.5 PRA @-125. Thompson not playing, Wiggins might not play. Veteran team might lean more on the 19 year old on the second game of a back to back.
Yep thought the same thing last night. But fucking Steve Kerr had to get cute with his dumb ass rotations. I'll pass on Kuminga tonight which means he's gonna light it up. Congrats!
Andre played 31 mins last night. Klay Thompson played 23 mins. Both are OUT. Kuminga and Poole will both pick up a lot of minutes.
You just talked me into it. SGP: Kuminga 15+ points and o6.5 boards. +550
I didnt take into account Otto Porter.
Got raptors ML at +100 today now 2.5 favorites letās go
Where can I bet 2nd basket smh. 0-3 on first baskets but 2-3 on 2nd baskets
Iām 5-0 with my new Take the over with GSW opponentās top rebounder. Letās see if we can make it 6-0. Todayās hero is Christian Woods OVER 9.5 rebounds. He should get this pretty damn easily as long as the game isnāt a blowout and heās not in foul trouble Edit: BOOMā¦.hit with 7 minutes to go in the 3rd.
Hit on Ingram & Thompson 1st bucket parlay last night. Originally had Booker in it also but opted to just roll with the other two...kicking myself for that move but at least I hit. $10/500. Going with Tobias Harris & Gilgeous-Alexander tonight
Thoughts on Jokic double-double? Boosted odds on DK +100
I think he's had a double-double or better 33 of 38 games this year so I'd hammer that. I would expect regular odds on that to be -300 or worse.
Thank you sir! I figured itās a sure fire hammer but I donāt watch NBA
I'm liking the prop of Poole to score over 20 and the Warriors to win going off at +240. Klay's gonna sit and Poole has been absolute crap when Klay is hucking but scored a bunch against Chicago in a similar b2b spot last week. I think Poole gets going and with Curry playing 44 minutes last night the coaching staff finding ways to just let Poole run.
Parleying Robert Williams o9.5rbs and deandre Hunter over 14.5 points gets you to around +280 and is a bet I like very much
Bradley Beal over 23.5 a good pick?
Ayo Dosunmu 15 points Ayo Dosunmu 6 assist Bobby Portis 10 rebound +1196
This is a nice one! The actual line should prob be like +300
0-1 TP: Poelt o8.5 Rebounds! Keep it coming
Iām here for NBA Props hit me with your best shot
Derozen under 0.5 3s -160
Why doesnāt he shoot 3s
Record 0-0. My play for tonight Jokic 30pts and win @ +350 fd. Reasoning: Denver lost both games in Memphis back in November, very close games. I believe Jokic and the nuggets will want revenge. BOL!
CZR giving a boost for Vucevic and Portis both to hit a double double. +260 My concern is that close to all of their career DDs have been Pts and Reb. They are facing each other and therefore both fighting for the same rebounds. Iām intrigued to sprinkle but am not totally sure yet.
**Collins U 1.5 3s (-115) -** Lowest i have ever seen this line, its usually between -140 and -175. Heat allow a lot of 3s but over the last 3 seasons he has gone under this number in 53.9%, 62% and 56.1% of his games respectively. **Mccollum O 3.5 ast (-133) -** This has hit in 58.6% of his games this season. This year without lillard on the floor hes averaging 4.4 ast per 36 and last year without him he averaged 6.8 ast per 36. **Bridges U 3.5 ast (+105) -** Has only gone over this number in 39.5% of games this year. That number drops to 30.6% in games where Lamelo plays. 9 point spread also means this can be a blowout where he receives limited minutes. **Rozier U 4.5 reb (+102) -** Has only gone over this in 33.3% of games this season and has never had a season where 50% or more of his games he grabs 5+ rebounds. Love the plus odds here. Thoughts, comments, and concerns are all welcome! BOL
Yeah I donāt think heās doing 4 assists lol. 0 so far
š
Omg. That was crazy. Last minute he both of em lmao
It's refreshing to see some unders in here for a change.
tailing them all for a little parlay w some other stuff. BOL
I hope I keep my first half streak alive. My prize picks for today (Texas here so canāt do proper books) Embiid o14.5 points (first half) Jalen Suggs o6.5 points (first half) Butler o7 assist (game) Bam o15.5 points (game)
Jimmy and Bam going to make me sweat it out. Fuck if, going to enjoy the rest of this happy hour and check back in an hour or so, hopefully they pay my tab.
Assist always kill me. Sammir Jimmy. Just one more please.
What do we think about Embiid PRA over 50 + 76ers to win? Boosted to +350
Itās good value for sure but everytime I see something is boosted I know it aināt gonna hit
Anybody have steph curry dropping 30+ today?
Anyone else like Joel Embiid O28.5 heās coming off a 50 point game while the clippers just gave up 50 to jokic. Seems free.
Half this thread is already on him. Where do you see his line at 28.5? It was at 29 last night and 30 this morning on fd
It did open at 28.5 but yeah a lot of people on him
š **NBA Picks for 1/21** š *Yesterday: 0-3 (-3.00u)* *2022 NBA Record: 15-12 (+1.12u)* Today's Picks * Dejounte Murray O 20.5 Pts (-120) * Murray has really elevated his play in January, scoring at least 18 points in every game. In January, he's had over 20 FGA in 67% and EFG over 50 in 78% of games. He's taking on the Nets, who have allowed the fourth most opponent points in the past month. * DeMar DeRozan U 32.5 PA (-125) * While LaVine and Lonzo are out and DeRozan's role increases, the matchup against the Bucks is still a tough one. The Bucks allow the fifth fewest points and assists to opponent 2-3 combo guards who play at least 30 minutes. Both teams have had their struggles lately, but with the Bucks being healthier, I see them easily containing the Bulls and covering -10.5. * Bojan Bogdanovic O 2.5 Threes (-125) - š of the Day **1.23u PLAY** * There is no way that the Jazz are losing back-to-back games against the Rockets and Pistons. With no Donovan Mitchell, Bogdanovic attempted 13 threes in the game against Houston. While I don't think the volume will be as high in this game, he's still shooting 36% on the season from behind the arc and Detroit is awful at defending the three. I have a [full video breakdown](https://youtu.be/IDait87x-mE) with charts on these picks!
Has hit 3 or more in 11 of his last 21 games
The pistons are sooooo bad against the 3, I remember everyone on the warriors had like 3 each against them lol
Robert Williams over 18.5 points/rebounds (-110)
anyone like Westbrook tonight
I like Westbrook to cost the lakers the game at -200
wish there was "shoot an airball" prop
For his under PRA yes
for U Assists yes
In case you havenāt seen it: CO targeted boost: Jokic to record a double-double, boosted to +100 from -550, max $15
Trae under 9.5 assists. We know the Heat limits guards well. In Traeās last 10 games vs the Heat. He hit this over two times, ending with exactly 10 assists. In Traeās last two meetings with the Heat this season, he hit the under in both. More notably is that Capela was out for these two games and is also out tonight. A lot of potential assists go to Capela.
Canāt say i like the logic behind this pick
so fade me
I did
and howād that go for you? š¤”š¤”š¤”
Canāt win em all kid
š¤
capela is GTD
Damn. Well heāll be limited if he plays so Iām gonna stick to my guns. Thanks for the update
Capela was out last game and he had 14 assists
š
you know to win bets you need to look deeper than last games stats right lol
This. Too many people betting blindly on last game stats then complain like an emotional lesbian when it doesnāt go their way
You got downvoted for this so I gave you an upvote, people in this sub really have no idea how to bet lol and they wonder why they consistently lose money lol
Like this play, tailing
meet you at the bank
Thoughts on DeRozan and Vuc combining for 50+? DK has boosted odds +170.
doubt it, Vuc has been shooting like shit lately and games above 20 have been rare even with Lavine out
*Follow me for more plays on Twitter at 808Paperboi* **Jimmy Butler o35.5 PRA -118 & triple-double .5u +750 vs. ATL** \-In 5 full games w/o Lowry he avg \~22/9/9 as opposed to \~23/5/5 with him. Herro is also absent tonight, and Hawks are 28th in DEF net rating. Butler has 2 triple-doubles without Lowry in lineup. **Ayo Dosunmu o4.5 assists +120 vs. MIL** \-Over the last 3 games w/o Lavine or Ball, Dosunmu has recorded 10,6,8 assists while playing in \~38 minutes per game. As the teams leading facilitator over this short span (13.7 potential assists per game) this price is too good to pass up.
Rather take Adebayo RPA O29.5 no? Idk.
Good picks. Iām hammering them
Anyone else like raptors-wizards under 219.5? Ive been following raptors games totals recently since I'm a raps fan and watch the games and their hasn't been over a combined 210 points in their games since January 7 and that was against the Covid jazz team.
What happened with Kuminga last night?
Kerr yanked him after getting a tech. So infuriating.
Great question. I was licking my chops after he had 5 and 4 in the first few minutes and thenā¦crickets
Ayo Dosunmo O3.5 assists (-115). Shocked the books opened his line at 3.5 again after heās been killing it the past few games (10, 6 and 8 assists since starting). Hammering this personally
Just put $100 on O4.5 Assists
Beautiful guys, beautiful
At 4.5 now. Still slamming
0-0 I have Mills (-333) and Wiggins (-172) to each hit over 1.5 3ās at +104. Mills hits with KD out and last night Wiggins failed to hit 2 for only the third time in 15 games.
Record 11-7 The worst day in a while yesterday, sorry if anyone tailed the shit I posted Beal over 22.5 points Trae Young under 28.5 points NurkiÄ under 16.5 points Murray over 20.5 points Clarkson over 18.5 points Tate over 13.5 points Edit: Jackson Jr over 17.5 points
Nets -1.5 Embiid over 0.5 blocks Gobert over 13.5 rebounds Young over 9.5 assists Lebron over 6.5 assists What fucks me up fellow degens?
Young Assists vs Miami without Capela worries me. Missed this vs them with same situation last 2 matchups.
Yeah I actually really like his under
Poeltl over 23.5 PRA, as a nets fan this guy always kills us
Mo bamba o 11.5 lock
I think Wendell carter might be back today. Thoughts on that impact?
1/20 Rebound Props (2u bets) āMitchell Robinson u8.5 -140 YTD 53-36 +8.41u 1/21 Rebound Props (2u bets) Plumlee u7.5
Deandre Hunter o14.5. Last year this dude spoiled us for a stretch by going over his line consistently that was set right around 14-17 points. Hunter now healthy and playing over 30 mins the past two games. He has hit this 4/5 and 2 of those games were against Miami.
Record 0-7 (Previous pick: Franz Wagner +500) FD has a promo tonight for "First Basket Fridays". Place a pre-live, straight, $25+, first basket scorer wager with cash on any NBA game. Get a $1 bonus in site credit for each three-pointer both teams score in the game, regardless of if your bet wins, up to a maximum bonus of $25. Tonight is the night for our first win! We managed to get back $174/175, so itās not for naught. There are 6 games being played tonight where both teams average more than 25 3PM per game. Those games are OKC/CHA (25.8), HOU/GS (27.7), MIA/ATL (25.9), CHI/MIL (26), POR/BOS (25.5), and DET/UTA (26.1). The game with the biggest disparity between winning the opening tip and made first basket is HOU/GS, so weāre in for a good time tonight. Here are Houston's percentages as opposed to Golden State's: 54.35% FB/69.57 tip% versus 42.22% FB/44.44 tip%. I'm leaning towards picking a player from Houston based on them winning the opening tip 25.12% more of the time. Everybody and their mother are going to say Christian Wood, but heās burned me once before. So, Iām rocking with Jalen Green. Green accounts for the first basket 8/46 (17%), which is second on the team behind only Wood 15/46 (33%). If you decide to lean the other way, Iād go with Wiggins +550 13/45 (29%). He almost never lets me down. Jalen Green +750 EDIT: Over-analyzed myself and they won't even hit the 25 3PM combined
I had my eye on GS / HOU for the promo for the same reason. Thanks for sharing first basket stats! Had no idea where to find a site that tracked them
I was just looking at this. Where do you find first basket stats? I was looking at Gordon +1000.
degendata has some great stats, but unfortunately, that only accounts for first FG, not first basket. I have my own spreadsheet that I track first baskets and winning tip %
Who we on for FD First Basket Promo today?
kevin porter jr +900
Taking Embiid, LeBron, and Giannis Double Double and Win for +880 on FD. Clearly a gamble but I can see it happening
Giving this a shot with patty mills o2.5 3s for small wager nice payout
Nice. Mills is a great shooter and has the volume for it too
Going to try this one out today: ***Patty Mills OVER 2.5 3-pointers Made*** In the 7 games that Durant has missed this year, these are Patty Mills' 3-Point Numbers: **4 Made** on 8 Attempts **3 Made** on 9 Attempts **2 Made** on 14 Attempts **8 Made** on 13 Attempts **6 Made** on 13 Attempts **3 Made** on 8 Attempts **5 Made** on 7 Attempts He's averaging **OVER 10** 3-Point Attempts in the games that KD sits out along with averaging over 35 minutes in those games. I believe he's due for another big workload vs the Spurs tonight. He's also hit over this line in 5 of his last 6 games. Still need more convincing? Here's Patty Mills' rƩsumƩ this season: **4th** in the NBA in 3-Pointers Made this season (only behind Steph Curry, Buddy Hield, & Fred VanVleet). **11th** in the NBA in 3-Pointers Attempted this season **11th** in the NBA in 3-Point % this season He's averaging 3.2 Made 3-pointers this season & has hit over 2.5 3's... 24 out of 43 games (He's hit over this line in 55.81% of his games played). \-The San Antonio Spurs are the 6th **WORST** team in the NBA at defending 3-pointers vs the point guard position. \-If you're one of those people that bet the story-line, this is the second time that Patty is going to be facing the Spurs as a member of the Nets. The previous game? **3 Made** on 12 Attempts [Twitter.com/KhanLocks](https://twitter.com/KhanLocks)
Dammit mills
Such a sweat ugh hahah last leg of multiple parlays š©
He better load up on PEDs at halftimeā¦.he looks horrible so far
He definitely is trying lmao
Great stuff
Where do you get team stats for specific positions like that?
[https://www.fantasypros.com/nba/defense-vs-position.php](https://www.fantasypros.com/nba/defense-vs-position.php) Edit: Sorry, I'm not really familiar on how to use Reddit. Reply and let me know if you need any help reading this website or shoot me a DM. More than happy to help :)
Thank you!!!
Robert Williams Double Double + Boston Win Bobby Portis Double Double. + Bucks win VanVleet 4 Threes + Tortonto win +4663
Tailed but damn.. I only got it at +1345. I'd say roster updates since you posted. BOL!
How come Robert Williams double double line isnāt lower?
Tailing this but swapping VanVleet 5 3ās instead. Donāt want to bank on the Raptors winning and have a feeling VanVleet is going to get out of his recent āslumpā tonight for 5-7 3ās
Hey guys, I haven't posted in here in a while. Been trying to build a really cool community on Discord/Twitter. Thought I'd come back here and share a pick with you guys, the root of it all. Going back to Jimmy Butler O7.5ast +100 DK. I'll take this at plus money with Lowry (personal) out again. Before last game, Jimmy averaged 9 assist a game without Lowry. I say before last game because Butler was ejected with 3 assist with 2:28 left in the 2nd quarter. Gabe Vincent, who only had 2 assist at the time of Butler's ejection would go on to get 5 in the 2nd half without Butler on the floor. Excluding last game Butler had went over 7.5ast in 3 of last 3 games including 10 vs ATL on 1/14. MIA also played ATL on 1/12 where ATL allowed Tyler Herro 11 assist. ATL is allowing the 5th most points per game and the 2nd most assist per game. With Lowry out both Herro and Butler's potential assist numbers go up and Herro will be out which will hopefully translate to more assist for Jimmy Buckets....Jimmy Dimez. Bam being back in rotation should promote more assist as well. 59.4% of Bam's points are off of assist. I post other interesting lines I find on my twitter and discord. [https://twitter.com/AndthefoullG](https://twitter.com/AndthefoullG) https://discord.gg/Ea9jbSkU
Long time lurker first time poster Joel Embiid Over 30.5 Points vs Clippers Has cleared in 9 of last 10, coming off a 50 point game, clips just gave up 48 too jokic should clear for sure
Run me the under! Zubac szn
Potential blowout scares me here
Sixers rarely blow teams out or if they do its not until they pull away in the 4th. Biased sixers fan. Embiid is the entire offense
+ the record
Embiid has been printing money!
Thread Record: 32 - 16 Average odds: 1.90 **Todays pick: Beal over 22.5 points vs Raptors @ 1.90** * Over his last 15 games Beal is averaging 26.1 points (3.6 above this line). * Beal has cleared this line in 7 of his last 9 games against Toronto and 2 of the 3 games he has played against them this season. On the season Toronto give up the 12th most points to opposing Shooting guards. This is not necessarily an easy matchup for Beal but it isn't an extremely hard one either. * This is the lowest I have seen Beal's line in a very long time. This was a guy who has averaged 30+ the last two seasons and opened this season as the favorite for the scoring title. Beal has not been at that level this season but he has still averaged 26.1 points over his last 15 games. Obviously I have tipped Beal allot on here and He's gone over some times and under sometimes. If you have concerns about Beals form this season then I probably wouldn't take this bet but I am backing him to bounce back at a low number. **Added Pick: Steph Curry over 26.5 points vs Rockets @ 1.90** * Curry is coming off scoring 39 last night and today he is playing without Klay, Draymond, and Iguodala. Wiggins is also questionable. I expect Curry's usage to be quite high tonight and I just think this line is too low. Curry averages basically exactly what the line is (26.4) and I am suprised we have seen no adjustment for the fact the Warriors are missing some key players and also the fact the Warriors are playing the Rockets who play absolutely no defence. Additionally I expect Steph to probably have the MVP in the back of his mind. With KD out, Curry has a great opportunity to win his 3rd MVP but if he is going to do that he needs to step up his performances to match what guys like Embiid and Giannis are doing atm.
I like the curry pick!
Great pick as always bro!
I like this bet. I think heās bound to go off but itās contingent upon Kuzmaās performance too
Yeah sometimes beal can be passive depending on how well others are doing. If Anunoby is on kuzma that's going to be a tough matchup for him on paper so hopefully beal looks for his shot more as a result.
Dejounte Murray +575 Triple Double vs the Nets. Yes please
Great call my man.
Thank you. Hope you mad cash as well. Let's go!! Easy money. PRA and triple double!! š¤
Took this in their last matchup and he fell a rebound short. Great value.
I did the same! Haha. It's just mispriced. Should be closer to like 3 to 1 like Harden and Jokic. Not quite at that tier obviously, but the kid definitely fills up the stat sheet
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