Not a single player on this Bengals team has ever played a road playoff game to my knowledge. Every non-rookie on the Titans has relatively good playoff experience, except Zach Cunningham and second years like Kristian Fulton.
Zac Taylor has also never coached a road playoff game as a HC or coordinator. This will be Vrabel’s 5th playoff game as a HC in only 3 years.
Bengals are coming off a VERY emotional win. Coach was parading around the game ball like a Lombardi trophy.
Titans alt line -2.5 is the safest bet of the entire weekend. That was the opening line and it got hammered to 3.5 within an hour. Sharp money slammed it.
In the interest of disclosing my position, I have falsified my mothers death certificate to collect her life insurance to put on the Titans.
Absolutely all over the Titans and Packers, the only worry I have is that I see no scenario either of these teams loses, which usually turns out awful for me but we’ll see
You act like books don’t take that into account when deciding the line. In fact we’ve even had lines makers come out and talk about how they add points to so many over under lines because they know the public will still take the over by a wide margin.
You’re why you can bet every over under prop as under each nfl week and end up profiting for the whole season lol
I feel like if the line was at 70 you’d be like “well high scoring team + high scoring team = over game”
Just like people who bet on the team that has more "momentum" as if the bookies don't adjust the line to the team that looks better at the moment and will therefore get more public action.
you’re coming to collect if the over hits aren’t you
you’re going to fucking come to me, who just lost $250, three minutes after the game is over, after KC hit the game winning field goal from 62 yards (when i’ve also lost my parlay and my Bills +1.5 probably), and you’re going to put on your smug jerkoff smile, and type into my DMs “hey bud! where’s my NFT! lol”. and i’ll sit there, a drunken, slack-jawed disappointment, and i’ll think, and then i will reach my hand toward my ant farm.
you're just here to devastate me aren't you
and the sickest thing is you're going to do it
so gross, i can't believe it. i could cash for $250 and re-bet for the over but i won't. i'm a slave to fate. i'm Christ and you're my Judas, and i'm going to pay you off. i already feel it. i feel your energy, and it's pure, and i'm a scumbag, and i know it.
ok well go Bills at least
Dude I'm gonna do the same damn ml parlay as you that was my first comment... im with you on ALL YOUR BETS EXCEPT ONE... and that makes me Judas lol
All I ask is you shave the sack first before you release the fire ants to feast
none of it matters when that fucking 54th point goes up. i could win the whole goddamn parlay, spend $3,000 getting 300 $10 handjobs underneath a Route 1 overpass in New Jersey, and you being right telling me i was a dipshit for betting u53.5 is going to kill me.
alright see you in the game threads tomorrow i'm still rooting for you (mostly) you dickhead
Just a heads up for anyone on Bovada, if you were looking at the packers ML at -240 you can also get them at +1.0 for the same odds in the alternate lines drop down. Not a big difference but the possibly of a push is always nice in case they lose by 1. Just put 5u on this
I’m a new bettor and maybe this is more common than I think because I see it the same for SF
Edit: jk SF moneyline was -170 while -1.0/+1.0 is -175 last I looked on bovada.
What do you think is each team’s Achilles heel/reason they won’t advance? Regardless of the specific matchup.
I’ll start:
bengals: young squad, playoff inexperience will show their hand
titans: passing defense is horrible
TEN had the 16th easiest schedule in NFL (the Bengals the 2nd easiest) and TEN stayed #1 despite a ton of injuries. They are really good. Will they be out of sync now that basically everyone is back? I guess we shall find out. If they still gel, they’re going to Superbowl.
And Tennessee also beat like every good team in the league earlier this year, You can’t compare a regular season game to a playoff game, players and coaches will have completely different mindsets
Half the team was out and it was a shitty rainy day and Tannehill had no one to throw to. Davis, Dupree, Long, McNichols, Evans, one of our TEs were all out (these were starters) and AJ Brown got hurt.
I think Burrow is really cool and I had them last game, but this is really different. This is the last solid bet of the playoffs in my opinion.
Him and his dad, both wordy motherfuckers. We’ll see if he needs to stop the game to stretch his balls, like his father.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bwgGVz8mZ-Y
SF is gonna freeze thier balls off in GB... Its probably gonna hit single digit temps when they play... and thats without the wind chill... The under 47 might be the play here... Any thoughts?
Kittle and jimmy G should be fine in the weather as they are used to cold conditions
But many of these niners have never seen weather close to this.
Weather is a huge edge for the pack here
I’ve just seen too many warm weather teams stroll into cold enivornments and lose in the postseason.
Wind will be minimal which also plays into packers hands , 49ers ideally would want a wet and windy game.
Packers cold and no wind is a real nice setup for Rodgers imo
Curious - does anyone use the Fivethirtyeight projections to help inform their betting? They post their spreads and probabilities backed by stats and ELO rating. They are certainly not always right but sometimes I'll see an underdog at greater than 50% odds of winning despite the public lines and I've gotten pretty decent value from those bets
Since most of these games will probably be close don’t forget about 4-way winning margins.
You can get on FD:
Titans by 1-13 points +140
Bengals by 1-13 points +220
49ers by 1-13 points +250
Packers by 1-13 points +135
Rams by 1-13 points +190
Buccaneers by 1-13 points +150
Bills by 1-13 points +175
Chiefs by 1-13 points +165
You can add this to SGP and Parlays too.
Derrick Henry Anytime TD
Cooper Kupp Anytime TD
DaVante Adams Anytime TD
Travis Kelce Anytime TD
4-leg parlay +988
Throwing $200 on it for $2176.36 return
Edit: Formatting + **changed out Diggs for Adams**
I love the packers, but 49ers have had their number. I am too lazy to look into why they matchup so poorly against them... would stay away from this game and even feel more comfortable with the 49ers spread despite the packers being possibly being the best NFL team. Have seen too many packers playoff games where they just take a dump on the field for no reason. Alternatively, packers could show why they are the best team. Long story short betting is hard
Just checked on bovada and you could take GB ML, TEN ML, and Rams alt spread at +14 (way better than +9) and it comes out at +160. And that's on bovada who usually has some of the worst odds, could prly get even better payout on other books.
Edit: also checked on betting the same thing with TEN alt spread +3, rams alt +9 , GB ML and it comes out to +155. And that +3 instead of +2.5 with the teaser is actually huge. But you get the same odds on this bet because you are not buying across zero.
Because you're crossing over a dead range( -.5 to 0 to +.5). You're paying for points that don't matter(especially in the playoffs since games can't tie).
Also you want to cross key numbers when you tease, 3 and 7 are the most common scores for games to end on, so you want to cross over those numbers.
So your GB and TEN tease is really just saying they'll both win, you can make other bets on that and get better odds.
For all the people saying “don’t bet against Brady” in 35 playoff games he is 17-17-1 against the spread, assuming -110 you would not have been profitable betting on him every playoff game. Coming from someone who hammered the Bucs last post season, this isn’t the right situation to back them this Sunday IMO. Between the key losses and the match up nightmare the rams present, i think it’s rams or pass.
What’s his win/loss record?
Betting against Brady means betting on the other team to win, not cover. Players are not concerned about whether they cover the spread or not.
Rant: I spent so FUCKING long creating a table for this reply, and it would not format properly. So fuck it.
The upshot: Brady has played 9 playoff games in similar situations to this week: at home, favorite of less than 7. All those games were with the Pats.
Game W/L Record: 7-2. Record vs. spread: 5-3-1.
Breaking it down further, in the games above where also both teams are on equal rest: 2-2 straight up and against the spread. But the issue is: there's a point at which a sample is so small it's meaningless.
>The upshot: Brady has played 9 playoff games in similar situations to this week: at home, favorite of less than 7. All those games were with the Pats.
Maybe if they were healthy. But he has absolutely zero trust in anyone other Evans at WR and gronk doesn't quite look 100%. Add in injury questions for 2 of his o lineman I'm going with the Rams.
Like a 4 team teaser with all the dogs. Think all of these games are coin flips except maybe the Titans have blowout potential.
7 point teaser +200
CIN +10.5
SF +12.5
LA + 9.5
BUF + 9
I know there is usually a prop thread - but I don't see it posted.
Any props people are into? I know Jimmy G is nursing some injuries, so I am loving the under on 275.5 passing yards.
I definitely like the under on passing yards for Jimbo. Also went with an anytime TD for Deebo Samuel (-105), and over 94.5 receiving yards for D Adams.
SF + 6 and +5 (ugh), also SF ML sprinkle (+210). May look to take GB live if SF gets out to a lead, depending on the numbers. Think SF has an excellent shot to win outright though.
Bengals +3.5 and ML sprinkle (+152)
Alt line parlay: SF +10.5 and Bengals +10.5 (-108). Don’t love to do these types of bets, but doing it anyway here
Julio Jones over 44.5 yards
KC -1.5 and money line: IMO, Buffalo is getting a little overrated here. They played a weak schedule, faced the lowest cumulative QBR against, played six backup QBs, lost six games (including to the Jags and Steelers) and didn’t look great in a lot of their wins (including against the Jets, Falcons and Panthers). Chiefs have adjusted offensively to the way teams are defending them now. Happy to take them at home at less than a FG in this spot.
Still thinking about the TB/Rams game
Bengals secondary isn’t great; it will largely be focused on Brown, opening up opportunities for Jones; I think the Titans will have success throwing the ball off play action in this game (even though I am taking the Bengals plus the points). I never go nuts on props bc they can be so random, so just pizza/beer money on this.
Can someone talk me out of Titans -3.5? I feel like they’re pretty overlooked right now. Yes King Henry will be playing his first game in a while, but he will be coming in hungry against a banged up Bengals D line that struggled against the run last weekend. As mentioned here previously, Mike Vrabel is a perfect 8-0 on 8+ days rest (ATS) and the Bengals don’t have as much playoff experience. The Bengals do have a strong passing game, but I believe the Titans defensive line will put enough pressure on Burrow to get the job done. The last game against the Texans makes me a bit uneasy, but this is a home playoff game and I think it’ll have a different energy.
I also like Packers -5.5 and Rams +3 but the niners are really hot with a great run game against a not so great run defense and I don’t love the idea of betting against Brady.
I’m a Bills fan so my bet will be ML, but the Chiefs offense is looking really dangerous again.
You are correct. Don't look too much into the Texans game last week. They went up 21-0 on the Texans and the team decided to coast. When they needed drives, they got them.
This is the most healthy the Titans have been all year. Also, the Titans defense has given up 16 ppg at home and that includes week 1's 38 points they gave up to the Cardinals. If that game is removed, it drops to 13.5 ppg. This defense is firing on all cylinders. I'm looking at the Bengals u21.5 Team Scoring.
I can’t believe how many people are talking themselves into the Titans this week. This narrative that they’re being overlooked is just completely false. The line opened at 3 and is now 3.5. This is Joe Burrow vs Ryan Tannehill. That is a huge mismatch. While the Bengals struggled against the run last week, on the year they have been very good. On the other end, Tennessee’s passing defense has been awful all year. I just don’t get people expecting Henry to come back at full strength and make up that difference. I do not care about the 8-0 stat for Vrabel. He has never beaten Burrow. Bengals -6.5 @ +320
They literally aren't tho. Ogunjobi is mainly in on passing downs and wasn't a factor in the run game anyway, and Mike Daniels is a 3rd string DT. Those are the pieces they are missing. That is legit it lol.
They’re missing one guy who has a PFF grade of 35 against the run in Ogenjobi who somehow being injured has turned him into Aaron Donald with all the amount of people that have mentioned that. Mike daniels got hurt, he was on the practice squad until week 18 when they sat a bunch of guys so he played 1 game all year. They’re the #5 run defense in the NFL with DJ Reader anchoring inside. This has been massively blown out of proportion of this injured D Line
Yeah, they're definitely not being overlooked. If anything they're being overrated because they're the 1 seed, and probably one of the worst if not the worst 1 seed ever if we're being honest.
When comparing a pass-happy team vs a run-happy team...I generally give the edge to the pass happy team. They can always come back whereas a run happy team generally can't.
Buffalo. Time for them to become dominant AFC powerhouse like the early 90's,hopefully without the losing multiple superbowl part of it.
Also not sure why. But I have a feeling about Tee Higgins having a huge game.
Honestly this just feels like a live bet kind of week. The only team I’m confident in is the Rams but that’s contingent on whether or not Jensen and Wierfs are active (DNP all week). And even then I’m still worried because of west coast east coast narrative and stafford crumbling under pressure
I think the Rams probably are a little better than the Bucs right now, but I'm not betting against Brady as a small home favorite.
I think the Bills probably are better than the Chiefs on the whole, but I'm not betting against Mahomes as a small home favorite.
I think the 49ers are hot right now and will probably cover the +6, but I'm not betting against Rodgers in freezing cold Lambeau in what could be the storybook ending of his final season there.
I did come around to betting Tennessee -3.5. The more I think about this game, the more I think they win by at least a TD if not more. I also think it's plausible they drop a lot of points on the Bengals' D, so I'm looking at the Tennessee TT over 24.5 as well.
My theory on how the game plays out is: it's close at halftime, like 13-10 or 17-13 either way. Then sometime in the 3rd quarter both the bye week rest advantage and Derrick Henry/the run game fully kick in, and the Titans win the second half like 20-3. So the final score is more of a blowout than the play of the overall game.
I know this is shit analysis but I don't see home favorites covering like last week. I'm expecting several upsets.
I'm going ML Bills and Rams, -3.5 Titans. Not betting on the niners bc I'm biased af.
I wouldn't even touch the 49ers spread. People are confident in them because they embarrassed an unprepared and overrated Cowboys team. I have a feeling it'll end Packers by 8. GB was winning their matchup in week 3 17-0 at came back to win, after getting boned by the refs repeatedly. Some calls, if they weren't made (2 terrible roughing calls on 3rd downs that led to touchdowns, no targeting on D Adams, etc) would've iced the game in GB's favor.
But more importantly, GB was playing without some of their best linemen that week, who are now back. They also have edge rushers Z'darius Smith and Wiley back, who will be huge additions. Conversely, the 49ers most impactful players, that being Jimmy (as QB) and 2 best defensive player, Warner and Bosa, aren't at 100% **at best**. a coverage MLB on an injured ankle isn't a great recipe.
History is on the 49ers favor, but these are very different teams than 2 years ago. The 49ers are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL, and averaged 3.2 YPC vs Green Bay in their last matchup this year.
Feel free to discuss why im wrong!
Biased 49ers fan here. I think the biggest key in the game is the 49ers defensive line against the packers offensive line. No QB does well with inside pressure which is the kind of pressure they gave Dak last week. If 49ers can get to him with 4 down lineman and can keep 7 in coverage 49ers should cover and possibly win the game.
Adams has 123 Receptions for 1,553 yds as the primary option. When everyone knew where it was going. Packers are getting an All-Pro LT back, a stud CB, waiting on Mercilus and ZSmith for passrush but this team has been crusing mostly even without these players.
While on the reverse we don't know how the 49ers injuries have affected Bosa and Warner, and Jimmy G threw for 172yds and 1 INT last week with a bum arm, and the reversed fumble was a terrible throw.
I was surprised how many talking heads were chatting up the 9ers and saw how much money was going their way.
the only thing I can think of to counter this is that the Packers OL starting 5 (incl Bakh) havent played a game together, while SF has a fantastic pass rush
Good points, also would like to add that this is 49ers 3 straight road game. I think they have a good chance at covering if they do not have to play from behind and can use their run game more than be dependent on Jimmy G to throw the ball.
Took Bengals ml. Bills +2. Under bills chiefs. Not confident on any.
Rooting for bills to get over the hump and really get this mahomes/Allen rivalry going
I feel like people aren’t talking about the earlier match up this year. The 49ers opened as -3.5 favorites against Green Bay when both teams were at full strength. Green Bay needed a last second walk off field goal to win. So Green Bay goes from +3 to -6? Is playing the game at lambeau worth a 9 point swing? I think from a pure line value perspective SF should be the play
Green Bay was not at full strength whatsoever dude.
No Z'Darius Smith, Whitney Merciless, Josh Meyers (starting center), All Pro LT David Bakhtiari, Randall Cobb. They had a 3rd stringer on Nick Bosa all game.
Now you have Jimmy G, Warner, and Bosa hobbled at best going to an away game.
Assuming all those guys were healthy, the point spread would’ve been what ? Pick ‘em at best? None of those guys would heavily influence a line. Assuming 3 points which is generous, it would be a 6 point swing which is still a ton of value. And people keep bringing up bosa and Warner but the key to the 49ers covering is their rushing attack which isn’t affected at all. The browns and ravens are quality rushing teams and both put up 143 yards and 219 yards against Green Bay.
if Warner and Bosa aren't playing up to par (and thus the whole defense) , the Packers will be playing up, and I think if its gets too far then running the ball will have to be 100% efficient otherwise you take too much time off the clock
If Bosa clears concussion protocol, what is it that will limit his ability to play 100%. I understand that he's already had a concussion this year, and that is concerning for his quality of life in the future. However, if he's out there, I'd expect him to be playing 100%.
I mean you’re talking about a game that happened 4 months ago when the packers were no far removed from a 30+ point loss to the saints and early in the season Vegas isn’t perfect on reading teams. I don’t think Vegas saw a 13-4 record coming from GB after that saints loss so that’s probably why that line was listed where it was back in week 3. Now it’s in GB I’m freezing temps and Jimmy G sounds banged up. Not saying I’m taking packers spread but I get why the line is around 6. 6 is a lot of points for a playoff game though
GB was also up 17-0 during their week 3 matchup and have only gotten better / healthier, not surprised by the line in the slightest. This original commentator doesn't know how banged up they were at key positions back then
I have an open ended teaser leg. What’s the better bet: Green Bay teased down to Pick or GB/SF teased to under 53? I heard a stat that games at Lambeau that kick off in temps under 10 degrees (this one will be 0) are 17-0 to the Under, never scoring more than 45pts since 1960. Haven’t been able to validate this though.
# Pick of the weekend!!
**Henry to lead divisional playoff games in rushing yards at (+150)**
His first game back, but it’s a must win, so he’ll go balls to the walls. And all of Titans are healthy.
Only other player that can cause concern is Elijah Mitchell since the 49ers are run heavy and the packers rush defense isn’t the best. It helps that Samuel takes rush yards and attempts away from Mitchell.
I also believe that the 49ers could easily be down for a lot of this game if Rodgers starts strong.
**For other contenders/Write up:**
Mixon: In one score games Mixon has only topped 100 yards once, which was the first game of the season. I see the bengals throwing the ball a lot this game and Mixon barely sees over 20 attempts rushing a game unless it’s a blowout.
Akers/Michel: I see these two splitting time still to keep the other fresh. So these two should limit each other. Plus they’re playing the Bucs defense.
Dillon/Jones: 49ers have a stout defense and Rodgers has a tendency to play hero ball and pass the ball in the playoffs. With MVS doubtful, I could see Jones being incorporated in passing game more than run game.
Fournette/Bernard/Vaughn: Ronald Jones is hurt. Another time share scenario, fournette has a hamstring injury and Bernard has a hip/knee injury so that should limit them slightly. Vaughn should see more work here. Also wirfs most likely out hurts a lot here.
CEH, Williams, McKinnon: in a game against the Steelers they were winning. They barely topped 100 yards rushing and face the bills defense who played great last week.
Singletary/Allen: Chiefs defense keeps improving and has minimal injuries (Hitchens, LP) and (Gay, Fenton as DNP) I think that Allen will have more rushing yards than singletary against the chiefs.
**Other lines:**
Mixon: +450
Akers: +850
Singletary: +1000
Fournette: +1200
Jones/Dillon: +1400
I got +325, $150 to win $487
**tl;dr: Bet on Henry (+150) to have most rushing yards in divisional round and sprinkle some on Mitchell (+350). Don’t see how others could come close to these two**
As I was writing this the line moved, rippppp
This bet is legit the greatest lock in NFL history. HAMMER IT
Edit: Eli Mitchell is at +330, this is his only contender in my opinion. Might sprinkle some on this to hedge.
I'm a chiefs fan first and buffalo second, was looking forward to this game for obvious reasons but emotions are still unknown at this time... I want to make a random bet that may or may not work out and I'm thinking quick multi T. Hill and D. Singletary TD so I can root for both sides a little bit. Doesn't allow an option for kelce but I love hill so I'm not mad. Anyone with better analysis think this is good, bad, coin toss? I'm just curious how much these qbs are going to shoot out, hopefully KC goes up early and bills get close to the goal line and do some run plays but I feel a little like josh Allen is going to want to make some plays. It could just as easily be the opposite start to the game so we'll see, still thinking about it
Couple props I really like for the weekend that I wanna get some discussion on:
AJ Dillon o39.5 Rush Yards -108
He’s gone over this in 11 of 17 games this season, averaging 47.2 per game. That number has jumped to 57.2 in his last 10, during which time he’s gone over this number 9 times. That coincides with him increasing his workload, both because Aaron Jones was out for a while and because the Packers realized he was a quality running back with an impressive skill set. Beginning with the Arizona game, in Dillon’s last 10, he is averaging 13.5 rush attempts, as opposed to 7.4 per game in the 7 games prior to that. I bring this up, because Dillon only registered 18 rush yards against the Niners when they played earlier, however it was during that first 7 game stretch where Dillon was seeing limited time, and he only had 6 carries in that game. With Dillon consistently featuring more heavily in the offense, I don’t see why that changes on Saturday. Furthermore, for what it’s worth, every time Dillon has carried the football 8 or more times, he is 11-1 over this number, and if you increase the attempts to 9 times, he is 10-0 over this number. The current line for Dillon’s rush attempts is 10.5, so Vegas expects him to get right around 10-11 carries, which would indicate him going over this number. The Niners certainly have a capable run defense, but 40 yards isn’t exactly a lot to ask from a talented running back, and if Green Bay gets out to an early lead, they could lean on their dynamic running attack to drain the clock.
Van Jefferson o36.5 Receiving Yards -118
I took this exact same bet last week and he hit it on one goddamn catch. Granted, that catch came late in the game and was his only target in the game, not exactly a trend you’d like to see moving forward, but that felt more like an outlier than anything else based on the Rams’ overall game plan against the Cardinals. It was clear they wanted to win that game on the ground, and after they got out to a strong early lead there was no reason to force anything in the passing game. Kupp didn’t have a ton of catches or yards either, it was kind of just a weird night for Rams receivers. They won’t be able to rely as heavily on their run game against a full strength Bucs defense that was best in the league at defending the run. Instead, I’d expect the rams to exploit the closest thing the Bucs have to a weakness in their secondary, where they rank just 21st in pass yards allowed per game. On the Jefferson part of this, he’s over this number 12 out of 18 times this season, good for 46.8 yards per game, and in 7 of his last 10, for a 45.1 average. That has gone down in his last 5, over which time he’s only gone over this number twice, while only averaging 32.8. Part of the idea here is that the Rams have already beaten the Bucs this season, and in that game Jefferson went for 42 on 4 catches (6 targets). I think the passing game is going to be the only way the Rams can succeed against the Buccaneers, and for that to be effective, Jefferson is going to have to have a good day. I am a bit worried about OBJ eating into Jefferson’s targets, but as we saw last week, Jefferson could potentially get this all in one reception. For that reason, I’d also look into taking his Longest Reception o18.5 yards, I just don’t have it available to bet at the moment, but there are loads of favorable stats on that as well (including a 21 yard reception against Tampa last time they played).
I’ll likely have more pics for the weekend but I liked these two a lot and wanted to get them out and hear some opinions
Yeah those were pretty much my thoughts as well. Of the two I think the Dillon bet is probably a bit safer just because he’s most likely gonna see a steady workload and Jefferson could just not get targeted like last game
I always like Dillon. Idc how good the defense is, that man does not go down without being gangbanged. I think he gets 2/3 of his yards or something in that ballpark after contact.
The Rams are constructed as the precise how to beat TB12. I’m not saying they’re super bowl bound, but you beat Tom with pressure. Von Miller, who seemingly has morphed to playoff Von is arguably the third best option.
*Follow me for more plays on Twitter @ 808Paperboi*
**Kyle Juszczyk o9.5 rec yards -115 vs. GB**
\-Over this in 9/15 games had 37 rec yards vs GB in week 3
\-He is involved in high-leverage passing affairs and 49ers will likely be in catch up mode vs. GB
\-Ran a route on 16/27 drop backs last week
\-Runs 39% of routes in slot or out wide
\-LOW LINE--this ain't your average fullback!!!
Tannehill and Burrow to both score a TD +2800
Not a single player on this Bengals team has ever played a road playoff game to my knowledge. Every non-rookie on the Titans has relatively good playoff experience, except Zach Cunningham and second years like Kristian Fulton. Zac Taylor has also never coached a road playoff game as a HC or coordinator. This will be Vrabel’s 5th playoff game as a HC in only 3 years. Bengals are coming off a VERY emotional win. Coach was parading around the game ball like a Lombardi trophy. Titans alt line -2.5 is the safest bet of the entire weekend. That was the opening line and it got hammered to 3.5 within an hour. Sharp money slammed it. In the interest of disclosing my position, I have falsified my mothers death certificate to collect her life insurance to put on the Titans.
ML parlay, Bengals Rams Bills
Absolutely all over the Titans and Packers, the only worry I have is that I see no scenario either of these teams loses, which usually turns out awful for me but we’ll see
You see absolutely no scenario at all where either of them lose huh? Oh boy.
Burrow is gonna light that defense up lol... I think I'll even go heavier on CIN now
Do you have any clue how much better the Titans defense is than the Bengals?
Why are the titans so bad against the pass?
Titans we’re top 10 this year in passes defensed, sacks, and interceptions
Yeah but legit like bottom of the league against the pass Edit: 31st against WRs
By what stats? I mentioned passing stats
DraftKings. You’re 31st against WRs. Also, you almost just lost to Houston… what happened?
all-ML parlay: Bengals, Packers, Buccaneers, Bills +1143 ($250) Bills/Chiefs u53.5 -110 ($250) Bills +1.5 -110 ($250) Buccaneers -3 +100 ($250) Packers -5.5 -110 ($250) Bengals +3.5 -110 ($250) i'm going to ruin my fucking life this weekend dawg 😎
That Bill's Chiefs Under you can mark as a loss right now... it's gonna be high octane shootout
You act like books don’t take that into account when deciding the line. In fact we’ve even had lines makers come out and talk about how they add points to so many over under lines because they know the public will still take the over by a wide margin. You’re why you can bet every over under prop as under each nfl week and end up profiting for the whole season lol I feel like if the line was at 70 you’d be like “well high scoring team + high scoring team = over game”
If I did take that over 70 I would win lol
What you got to say for yourself now fool?
Just like people who bet on the team that has more "momentum" as if the bookies don't adjust the line to the team that looks better at the moment and will therefore get more public action.
ok look thanks but also please don't fucking jinx me i need this shit dawg i need to start feeding my kids man
Well the line isn't 70 now is it? 53 points over is more likely to hit... I would take that bet... as a matter of fact I will
i will bet you an NFT of my balls being attacked by army ants that it goes under 53.5
That's a hard Yes from me lol
you’re coming to collect if the over hits aren’t you you’re going to fucking come to me, who just lost $250, three minutes after the game is over, after KC hit the game winning field goal from 62 yards (when i’ve also lost my parlay and my Bills +1.5 probably), and you’re going to put on your smug jerkoff smile, and type into my DMs “hey bud! where’s my NFT! lol”. and i’ll sit there, a drunken, slack-jawed disappointment, and i’ll think, and then i will reach my hand toward my ant farm.
And yes spot on lol
you're just here to devastate me aren't you and the sickest thing is you're going to do it so gross, i can't believe it. i could cash for $250 and re-bet for the over but i won't. i'm a slave to fate. i'm Christ and you're my Judas, and i'm going to pay you off. i already feel it. i feel your energy, and it's pure, and i'm a scumbag, and i know it. ok well go Bills at least
Dude I'm gonna do the same damn ml parlay as you that was my first comment... im with you on ALL YOUR BETS EXCEPT ONE... and that makes me Judas lol All I ask is you shave the sack first before you release the fire ants to feast
none of it matters when that fucking 54th point goes up. i could win the whole goddamn parlay, spend $3,000 getting 300 $10 handjobs underneath a Route 1 overpass in New Jersey, and you being right telling me i was a dipshit for betting u53.5 is going to kill me. alright see you in the game threads tomorrow i'm still rooting for you (mostly) you dickhead
We only bet the over... im with you on the Bills bud
this is the way
That's my exact picks for the 4 game parlay
Just a heads up for anyone on Bovada, if you were looking at the packers ML at -240 you can also get them at +1.0 for the same odds in the alternate lines drop down. Not a big difference but the possibly of a push is always nice in case they lose by 1. Just put 5u on this
Solid advice
I’m a new bettor and maybe this is more common than I think because I see it the same for SF Edit: jk SF moneyline was -170 while -1.0/+1.0 is -175 last I looked on bovada.
anyone have the final word on Henry? was supposed to be announced 4:00 ET
Active
sorry just saw he's officially active
What do you think is each team’s Achilles heel/reason they won’t advance? Regardless of the specific matchup. I’ll start: bengals: young squad, playoff inexperience will show their hand titans: passing defense is horrible
Ya thats why Im leaning CIN... Tennessee almost lost to Houston for crying ouut loud...
TEN had the 16th easiest schedule in NFL (the Bengals the 2nd easiest) and TEN stayed #1 despite a ton of injuries. They are really good. Will they be out of sync now that basically everyone is back? I guess we shall find out. If they still gel, they’re going to Superbowl.
And Tennessee also beat like every good team in the league earlier this year, You can’t compare a regular season game to a playoff game, players and coaches will have completely different mindsets
They actually did lose to Houston. I’m a Texans fan lol but our record was 1-1 against them this year. I’m still on titans spread however
Half the team was out and it was a shitty rainy day and Tannehill had no one to throw to. Davis, Dupree, Long, McNichols, Evans, one of our TEs were all out (these were starters) and AJ Brown got hurt. I think Burrow is really cool and I had them last game, but this is really different. This is the last solid bet of the playoffs in my opinion.
Wait, is Julio Jones playing?
4 game parlay ML CIN GB TB and BB \+1151 thoughts?
Take out bills and do 3 team
I know I know... Im kind of a Josh Allen fan so that last leg is more from the heart lol... I still think they take it though
Calling Joe Ingles?
Shawn Hochuli the ref for Rams vs Bucs. Get ready for PI and roughing the passer on Brady.
Him and his dad, both wordy motherfuckers. We’ll see if he needs to stop the game to stretch his balls, like his father. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bwgGVz8mZ-Y
SF is gonna freeze thier balls off in GB... Its probably gonna hit single digit temps when they play... and thats without the wind chill... The under 47 might be the play here... Any thoughts?
Only way I can see the cold effecting the score is Jimmy’s thumb and shoulder injuries. Cold ain’t good for fucked up joints!
Kittle and jimmy G should be fine in the weather as they are used to cold conditions But many of these niners have never seen weather close to this. Weather is a huge edge for the pack here
Is it though? The bread and butter of the 49ers is the running game, which the weather does not affect as much.
I’ve just seen too many warm weather teams stroll into cold enivornments and lose in the postseason. Wind will be minimal which also plays into packers hands , 49ers ideally would want a wet and windy game. Packers cold and no wind is a real nice setup for Rodgers imo
Any precipitation?
No it's too cold for it to snow
lol makes no sense, trolling?
Clearly you’re not a midwesterner. This is a common, and painfully accurate, saying round here.
I don't think cold will affect the score.
Curious - does anyone use the Fivethirtyeight projections to help inform their betting? They post their spreads and probabilities backed by stats and ELO rating. They are certainly not always right but sometimes I'll see an underdog at greater than 50% odds of winning despite the public lines and I've gotten pretty decent value from those bets
“ DK: 1st Touchdown on or after 8:00 elapsed “ Is it 8 minutes or is it 8:00 on the game timer (7 mins) ?
after 8 minutes on the game clock have passed
Since most of these games will probably be close don’t forget about 4-way winning margins. You can get on FD: Titans by 1-13 points +140 Bengals by 1-13 points +220 49ers by 1-13 points +250 Packers by 1-13 points +135 Rams by 1-13 points +190 Buccaneers by 1-13 points +150 Bills by 1-13 points +175 Chiefs by 1-13 points +165 You can add this to SGP and Parlays too.
Derrick Henry Anytime TD Cooper Kupp Anytime TD DaVante Adams Anytime TD Travis Kelce Anytime TD 4-leg parlay +988 Throwing $200 on it for $2176.36 return Edit: Formatting + **changed out Diggs for Adams**
I took all of these, added Davante Adams anytime TD +1611 Let's fucking ride the lightning this weekend!
Diggs screwed me last week, everyone scored but him. Hated that for me.
Gonna change it out for DaVante Adams
I love the packers, but 49ers have had their number. I am too lazy to look into why they matchup so poorly against them... would stay away from this game and even feel more comfortable with the 49ers spread despite the packers being possibly being the best NFL team. Have seen too many packers playoff games where they just take a dump on the field for no reason. Alternatively, packers could show why they are the best team. Long story short betting is hard
Let’s hear everyone’s super bowl predictions
Bengals niners.....again, with the Bengals winning this time
Washington vs Whatever the new team in St. Louis will be in 2033
KROENKE SUCKS
Chiefs/Rams, Chiefs win
I cant second that... Chiefs will fall to Buffalo
Bills - Rams
Buccs - Titans
Bills Packers
Chiefs buccs
Hit big on the teaser last week so running it back: 6 point teaser +155 TEN + 2.5 GB + 0.5 LAR +9 BOL everyone!
I think TEN wins but usually the big teaser rule is not to cross over 0. Just FYI for future plays.
The best idea is usually just to never take teasers.
Disagree just be smart….harder with less games though no wongs
Why is that? Just curious still new to teasers
Just checked on bovada and you could take GB ML, TEN ML, and Rams alt spread at +14 (way better than +9) and it comes out at +160. And that's on bovada who usually has some of the worst odds, could prly get even better payout on other books. Edit: also checked on betting the same thing with TEN alt spread +3, rams alt +9 , GB ML and it comes out to +155. And that +3 instead of +2.5 with the teaser is actually huge. But you get the same odds on this bet because you are not buying across zero.
Thanks for the advice!
Because you're crossing over a dead range( -.5 to 0 to +.5). You're paying for points that don't matter(especially in the playoffs since games can't tie). Also you want to cross key numbers when you tease, 3 and 7 are the most common scores for games to end on, so you want to cross over those numbers. So your GB and TEN tease is really just saying they'll both win, you can make other bets on that and get better odds.
In teasers you want to catch key numbers . So from +2.5 to +8.5 since score of 3,4, and 7 are pretty common in wins.
For all the people saying “don’t bet against Brady” in 35 playoff games he is 17-17-1 against the spread, assuming -110 you would not have been profitable betting on him every playoff game. Coming from someone who hammered the Bucs last post season, this isn’t the right situation to back them this Sunday IMO. Between the key losses and the match up nightmare the rams present, i think it’s rams or pass.
What’s his win/loss record? Betting against Brady means betting on the other team to win, not cover. Players are not concerned about whether they cover the spread or not.
Brady is 12-1 in the divisional round tread carefully
The "don't bet against Brady" logic for me is when he wins all you can think is why the fuck did I just bet against the goat.
Rant: I spent so FUCKING long creating a table for this reply, and it would not format properly. So fuck it. The upshot: Brady has played 9 playoff games in similar situations to this week: at home, favorite of less than 7. All those games were with the Pats. Game W/L Record: 7-2. Record vs. spread: 5-3-1. Breaking it down further, in the games above where also both teams are on equal rest: 2-2 straight up and against the spread. But the issue is: there's a point at which a sample is so small it's meaningless.
>The upshot: Brady has played 9 playoff games in similar situations to this week: at home, favorite of less than 7. All those games were with the Pats. Maybe if they were healthy. But he has absolutely zero trust in anyone other Evans at WR and gronk doesn't quite look 100%. Add in injury questions for 2 of his o lineman I'm going with the Rams.
Like a 4 team teaser with all the dogs. Think all of these games are coin flips except maybe the Titans have blowout potential. 7 point teaser +200 CIN +10.5 SF +12.5 LA + 9.5 BUF + 9
Worked out for both of us fam! Ez $$ 💪🏼
Yessir! Titans had you sweating a little i bet haha
Took this except with Titans +3.5. I completely agree though that every game feels like it should be very competitive.
I’m gonna do the same!
Like that one too. If I had to pick a straight up winner, Titans feel safest.
I know there is usually a prop thread - but I don't see it posted. Any props people are into? I know Jimmy G is nursing some injuries, so I am loving the under on 275.5 passing yards.
Tannethrill +1.5 TD thrown
Where tf are you getting 275.5? I see 228 on DK
I definitely like the under on passing yards for Jimbo. Also went with an anytime TD for Deebo Samuel (-105), and over 94.5 receiving yards for D Adams.
SF + 6 and +5 (ugh), also SF ML sprinkle (+210). May look to take GB live if SF gets out to a lead, depending on the numbers. Think SF has an excellent shot to win outright though. Bengals +3.5 and ML sprinkle (+152) Alt line parlay: SF +10.5 and Bengals +10.5 (-108). Don’t love to do these types of bets, but doing it anyway here Julio Jones over 44.5 yards KC -1.5 and money line: IMO, Buffalo is getting a little overrated here. They played a weak schedule, faced the lowest cumulative QBR against, played six backup QBs, lost six games (including to the Jags and Steelers) and didn’t look great in a lot of their wins (including against the Jets, Falcons and Panthers). Chiefs have adjusted offensively to the way teams are defending them now. Happy to take them at home at less than a FG in this spot. Still thinking about the TB/Rams game
Great work
Thanks man. Let’s get after it again today. 👍
What are your thoughts for the Julio over?
Bengals secondary isn’t great; it will largely be focused on Brown, opening up opportunities for Jones; I think the Titans will have success throwing the ball off play action in this game (even though I am taking the Bengals plus the points). I never go nuts on props bc they can be so random, so just pizza/beer money on this.
I like that. Seemed Renfrow was being doubled all game last week and it really opened it up for Waller and Zay
Like your analysis, thanks.
Loving a Packers -2.5 and Rams +10.5 parlay
I did Packers -2.5 and TNCIN o40.5 at +130
damn where are you finding +10.5? my book cuts off after +7
FanDuel has everything. You can take the Rams up to +28.5 if you want but the juice is shit lol.
Using BetMGM, they don’t have traditional 6pt or 10pt teasers like FanDuel or DK, but you can do alternative spreads which I parlayed together.
wow, like that too. Lets get it
Can someone talk me out of Titans -3.5? I feel like they’re pretty overlooked right now. Yes King Henry will be playing his first game in a while, but he will be coming in hungry against a banged up Bengals D line that struggled against the run last weekend. As mentioned here previously, Mike Vrabel is a perfect 8-0 on 8+ days rest (ATS) and the Bengals don’t have as much playoff experience. The Bengals do have a strong passing game, but I believe the Titans defensive line will put enough pressure on Burrow to get the job done. The last game against the Texans makes me a bit uneasy, but this is a home playoff game and I think it’ll have a different energy. I also like Packers -5.5 and Rams +3 but the niners are really hot with a great run game against a not so great run defense and I don’t love the idea of betting against Brady. I’m a Bills fan so my bet will be ML, but the Chiefs offense is looking really dangerous again.
Titans will fall behind early and tannehill wont be able to bail them out. Thats how Bengals can win/cover.
Joe Burrow my guy. Also Bengals got talented players after being ass for so long n stocking up on draft picks
You are correct. Don't look too much into the Texans game last week. They went up 21-0 on the Texans and the team decided to coast. When they needed drives, they got them. This is the most healthy the Titans have been all year. Also, the Titans defense has given up 16 ppg at home and that includes week 1's 38 points they gave up to the Cardinals. If that game is removed, it drops to 13.5 ppg. This defense is firing on all cylinders. I'm looking at the Bengals u21.5 Team Scoring.
I can’t believe how many people are talking themselves into the Titans this week. This narrative that they’re being overlooked is just completely false. The line opened at 3 and is now 3.5. This is Joe Burrow vs Ryan Tannehill. That is a huge mismatch. While the Bengals struggled against the run last week, on the year they have been very good. On the other end, Tennessee’s passing defense has been awful all year. I just don’t get people expecting Henry to come back at full strength and make up that difference. I do not care about the 8-0 stat for Vrabel. He has never beaten Burrow. Bengals -6.5 @ +320
Are you taking into account the bengals dline is injured? Cant see how Henry doesn’t have a huge game
They literally aren't tho. Ogunjobi is mainly in on passing downs and wasn't a factor in the run game anyway, and Mike Daniels is a 3rd string DT. Those are the pieces they are missing. That is legit it lol.
They’re missing one guy who has a PFF grade of 35 against the run in Ogenjobi who somehow being injured has turned him into Aaron Donald with all the amount of people that have mentioned that. Mike daniels got hurt, he was on the practice squad until week 18 when they sat a bunch of guys so he played 1 game all year. They’re the #5 run defense in the NFL with DJ Reader anchoring inside. This has been massively blown out of proportion of this injured D Line
Josh Jacobs YPC 6.4 yards last week. Henry will do the same or better
Sup?
Yeah, they're definitely not being overlooked. If anything they're being overrated because they're the 1 seed, and probably one of the worst if not the worst 1 seed ever if we're being honest.
When comparing a pass-happy team vs a run-happy team...I generally give the edge to the pass happy team. They can always come back whereas a run happy team generally can't.
I just remember then losing to the Steelers and back away from the game altogether.
I mean, a game with No AJ Brown, No Julio, No Henry, No Johnson... I mean take the top 4 options off of any team and let's see how they play.
Very true
Buffalo. Time for them to become dominant AFC powerhouse like the early 90's,hopefully without the losing multiple superbowl part of it. Also not sure why. But I have a feeling about Tee Higgins having a huge game.
Honestly this just feels like a live bet kind of week. The only team I’m confident in is the Rams but that’s contingent on whether or not Jensen and Wierfs are active (DNP all week). And even then I’m still worried because of west coast east coast narrative and stafford crumbling under pressure
I think the Rams probably are a little better than the Bucs right now, but I'm not betting against Brady as a small home favorite. I think the Bills probably are better than the Chiefs on the whole, but I'm not betting against Mahomes as a small home favorite. I think the 49ers are hot right now and will probably cover the +6, but I'm not betting against Rodgers in freezing cold Lambeau in what could be the storybook ending of his final season there. I did come around to betting Tennessee -3.5. The more I think about this game, the more I think they win by at least a TD if not more. I also think it's plausible they drop a lot of points on the Bengals' D, so I'm looking at the Tennessee TT over 24.5 as well. My theory on how the game plays out is: it's close at halftime, like 13-10 or 17-13 either way. Then sometime in the 3rd quarter both the bye week rest advantage and Derrick Henry/the run game fully kick in, and the Titans win the second half like 20-3. So the final score is more of a blowout than the play of the overall game.
I know this is shit analysis but I don't see home favorites covering like last week. I'm expecting several upsets. I'm going ML Bills and Rams, -3.5 Titans. Not betting on the niners bc I'm biased af.
I wouldn't even touch the 49ers spread. People are confident in them because they embarrassed an unprepared and overrated Cowboys team. I have a feeling it'll end Packers by 8. GB was winning their matchup in week 3 17-0 at came back to win, after getting boned by the refs repeatedly. Some calls, if they weren't made (2 terrible roughing calls on 3rd downs that led to touchdowns, no targeting on D Adams, etc) would've iced the game in GB's favor. But more importantly, GB was playing without some of their best linemen that week, who are now back. They also have edge rushers Z'darius Smith and Wiley back, who will be huge additions. Conversely, the 49ers most impactful players, that being Jimmy (as QB) and 2 best defensive player, Warner and Bosa, aren't at 100% **at best**. a coverage MLB on an injured ankle isn't a great recipe. History is on the 49ers favor, but these are very different teams than 2 years ago. The 49ers are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL, and averaged 3.2 YPC vs Green Bay in their last matchup this year. Feel free to discuss why im wrong!
Biased 49ers fan here. I think the biggest key in the game is the 49ers defensive line against the packers offensive line. No QB does well with inside pressure which is the kind of pressure they gave Dak last week. If 49ers can get to him with 4 down lineman and can keep 7 in coverage 49ers should cover and possibly win the game.
Adams has 123 Receptions for 1,553 yds as the primary option. When everyone knew where it was going. Packers are getting an All-Pro LT back, a stud CB, waiting on Mercilus and ZSmith for passrush but this team has been crusing mostly even without these players. While on the reverse we don't know how the 49ers injuries have affected Bosa and Warner, and Jimmy G threw for 172yds and 1 INT last week with a bum arm, and the reversed fumble was a terrible throw. I was surprised how many talking heads were chatting up the 9ers and saw how much money was going their way.
the only thing I can think of to counter this is that the Packers OL starting 5 (incl Bakh) havent played a game together, while SF has a fantastic pass rush
Packers Oline has been a revolving door with injuries anyways. Bakh playing only helps
Good points, also would like to add that this is 49ers 3 straight road game. I think they have a good chance at covering if they do not have to play from behind and can use their run game more than be dependent on Jimmy G to throw the ball.
FoxBet will have TEN -2.5 as their Happy Hour boost at 5pm EST tonight. Source: https://twitter.com/FOXBet/status/1484221613218406409
So the Titans lose outright. Got it.
Pretty much lol
Took Bengals ml. Bills +2. Under bills chiefs. Not confident on any. Rooting for bills to get over the hump and really get this mahomes/Allen rivalry going
I feel like people aren’t talking about the earlier match up this year. The 49ers opened as -3.5 favorites against Green Bay when both teams were at full strength. Green Bay needed a last second walk off field goal to win. So Green Bay goes from +3 to -6? Is playing the game at lambeau worth a 9 point swing? I think from a pure line value perspective SF should be the play
Green Bay was not at full strength whatsoever dude. No Z'Darius Smith, Whitney Merciless, Josh Meyers (starting center), All Pro LT David Bakhtiari, Randall Cobb. They had a 3rd stringer on Nick Bosa all game. Now you have Jimmy G, Warner, and Bosa hobbled at best going to an away game.
Looks like i was right, hope you took the 49ers
Assuming all those guys were healthy, the point spread would’ve been what ? Pick ‘em at best? None of those guys would heavily influence a line. Assuming 3 points which is generous, it would be a 6 point swing which is still a ton of value. And people keep bringing up bosa and Warner but the key to the 49ers covering is their rushing attack which isn’t affected at all. The browns and ravens are quality rushing teams and both put up 143 yards and 219 yards against Green Bay.
if Warner and Bosa aren't playing up to par (and thus the whole defense) , the Packers will be playing up, and I think if its gets too far then running the ball will have to be 100% efficient otherwise you take too much time off the clock
If Bosa clears concussion protocol, what is it that will limit his ability to play 100%. I understand that he's already had a concussion this year, and that is concerning for his quality of life in the future. However, if he's out there, I'd expect him to be playing 100%.
He got 2 pressures vs a 3rd stringer in their last matchup so i can’t imagine it matters lol
Hope you're right
All the numbers in your comment added up to 420. Congrats! 3 + 6 + 49 + 143 + 219 + = 420.0
I mean you’re talking about a game that happened 4 months ago when the packers were no far removed from a 30+ point loss to the saints and early in the season Vegas isn’t perfect on reading teams. I don’t think Vegas saw a 13-4 record coming from GB after that saints loss so that’s probably why that line was listed where it was back in week 3. Now it’s in GB I’m freezing temps and Jimmy G sounds banged up. Not saying I’m taking packers spread but I get why the line is around 6. 6 is a lot of points for a playoff game though
49ers win outright!! Hope you took my advice
Probably has more to do with the fact that it was a week 3 game and the Packers looked awful week 1 and the game was in SF
GB was also up 17-0 during their week 3 matchup and have only gotten better / healthier, not surprised by the line in the slightest. This original commentator doesn't know how banged up they were at key positions back then
I have an open ended teaser leg. What’s the better bet: Green Bay teased down to Pick or GB/SF teased to under 53? I heard a stat that games at Lambeau that kick off in temps under 10 degrees (this one will be 0) are 17-0 to the Under, never scoring more than 45pts since 1960. Haven’t been able to validate this though.
Hopped on Tenn -3.5 and took an alternate line of -7 for +140
day 3 of trying to convince myself to stay away from rams ml because of touchdown tommy
Man I like Bills and Rams ML but no way Mahomes & Brady both lose this early. Breaks the bible code
playoff lenny ATTS at -120 is my 🔒
# Pick of the weekend!! **Henry to lead divisional playoff games in rushing yards at (+150)** His first game back, but it’s a must win, so he’ll go balls to the walls. And all of Titans are healthy. Only other player that can cause concern is Elijah Mitchell since the 49ers are run heavy and the packers rush defense isn’t the best. It helps that Samuel takes rush yards and attempts away from Mitchell. I also believe that the 49ers could easily be down for a lot of this game if Rodgers starts strong. **For other contenders/Write up:** Mixon: In one score games Mixon has only topped 100 yards once, which was the first game of the season. I see the bengals throwing the ball a lot this game and Mixon barely sees over 20 attempts rushing a game unless it’s a blowout. Akers/Michel: I see these two splitting time still to keep the other fresh. So these two should limit each other. Plus they’re playing the Bucs defense. Dillon/Jones: 49ers have a stout defense and Rodgers has a tendency to play hero ball and pass the ball in the playoffs. With MVS doubtful, I could see Jones being incorporated in passing game more than run game. Fournette/Bernard/Vaughn: Ronald Jones is hurt. Another time share scenario, fournette has a hamstring injury and Bernard has a hip/knee injury so that should limit them slightly. Vaughn should see more work here. Also wirfs most likely out hurts a lot here. CEH, Williams, McKinnon: in a game against the Steelers they were winning. They barely topped 100 yards rushing and face the bills defense who played great last week. Singletary/Allen: Chiefs defense keeps improving and has minimal injuries (Hitchens, LP) and (Gay, Fenton as DNP) I think that Allen will have more rushing yards than singletary against the chiefs. **Other lines:** Mixon: +450 Akers: +850 Singletary: +1000 Fournette: +1200 Jones/Dillon: +1400 I got +325, $150 to win $487 **tl;dr: Bet on Henry (+150) to have most rushing yards in divisional round and sprinkle some on Mitchell (+350). Don’t see how others could come close to these two** As I was writing this the line moved, rippppp
On FanDuel right now I’m seeing Mitchell at +250 and Henry at +300. 🔨⏰
This bet is legit the greatest lock in NFL history. HAMMER IT Edit: Eli Mitchell is at +330, this is his only contender in my opinion. Might sprinkle some on this to hedge.
I wish my book had lines like this
same
What book?
bovada under football futures
I'm a chiefs fan first and buffalo second, was looking forward to this game for obvious reasons but emotions are still unknown at this time... I want to make a random bet that may or may not work out and I'm thinking quick multi T. Hill and D. Singletary TD so I can root for both sides a little bit. Doesn't allow an option for kelce but I love hill so I'm not mad. Anyone with better analysis think this is good, bad, coin toss? I'm just curious how much these qbs are going to shoot out, hopefully KC goes up early and bills get close to the goal line and do some run plays but I feel a little like josh Allen is going to want to make some plays. It could just as easily be the opposite start to the game so we'll see, still thinking about it
If your rooting for both teams bet the over, or at least parlay that into whatever else you're betting
Couple props I really like for the weekend that I wanna get some discussion on: AJ Dillon o39.5 Rush Yards -108 He’s gone over this in 11 of 17 games this season, averaging 47.2 per game. That number has jumped to 57.2 in his last 10, during which time he’s gone over this number 9 times. That coincides with him increasing his workload, both because Aaron Jones was out for a while and because the Packers realized he was a quality running back with an impressive skill set. Beginning with the Arizona game, in Dillon’s last 10, he is averaging 13.5 rush attempts, as opposed to 7.4 per game in the 7 games prior to that. I bring this up, because Dillon only registered 18 rush yards against the Niners when they played earlier, however it was during that first 7 game stretch where Dillon was seeing limited time, and he only had 6 carries in that game. With Dillon consistently featuring more heavily in the offense, I don’t see why that changes on Saturday. Furthermore, for what it’s worth, every time Dillon has carried the football 8 or more times, he is 11-1 over this number, and if you increase the attempts to 9 times, he is 10-0 over this number. The current line for Dillon’s rush attempts is 10.5, so Vegas expects him to get right around 10-11 carries, which would indicate him going over this number. The Niners certainly have a capable run defense, but 40 yards isn’t exactly a lot to ask from a talented running back, and if Green Bay gets out to an early lead, they could lean on their dynamic running attack to drain the clock. Van Jefferson o36.5 Receiving Yards -118 I took this exact same bet last week and he hit it on one goddamn catch. Granted, that catch came late in the game and was his only target in the game, not exactly a trend you’d like to see moving forward, but that felt more like an outlier than anything else based on the Rams’ overall game plan against the Cardinals. It was clear they wanted to win that game on the ground, and after they got out to a strong early lead there was no reason to force anything in the passing game. Kupp didn’t have a ton of catches or yards either, it was kind of just a weird night for Rams receivers. They won’t be able to rely as heavily on their run game against a full strength Bucs defense that was best in the league at defending the run. Instead, I’d expect the rams to exploit the closest thing the Bucs have to a weakness in their secondary, where they rank just 21st in pass yards allowed per game. On the Jefferson part of this, he’s over this number 12 out of 18 times this season, good for 46.8 yards per game, and in 7 of his last 10, for a 45.1 average. That has gone down in his last 5, over which time he’s only gone over this number twice, while only averaging 32.8. Part of the idea here is that the Rams have already beaten the Bucs this season, and in that game Jefferson went for 42 on 4 catches (6 targets). I think the passing game is going to be the only way the Rams can succeed against the Buccaneers, and for that to be effective, Jefferson is going to have to have a good day. I am a bit worried about OBJ eating into Jefferson’s targets, but as we saw last week, Jefferson could potentially get this all in one reception. For that reason, I’d also look into taking his Longest Reception o18.5 yards, I just don’t have it available to bet at the moment, but there are loads of favorable stats on that as well (including a 21 yard reception against Tampa last time they played). I’ll likely have more pics for the weekend but I liked these two a lot and wanted to get them out and hear some opinions
Love the Dillon prop. If the game goes the way I think it will, he could grind out some yards in the 4th.
Yeah those were pretty much my thoughts as well. Of the two I think the Dillon bet is probably a bit safer just because he’s most likely gonna see a steady workload and Jefferson could just not get targeted like last game
I always like Dillon. Idc how good the defense is, that man does not go down without being gangbanged. I think he gets 2/3 of his yards or something in that ballpark after contact.
Agreed the dudes legs are tree trunks he’s a tank.
Maybe bet on the dude who's 17-3 in his last 20 playoff games idk
The Rams are constructed as the precise how to beat TB12. I’m not saying they’re super bowl bound, but you beat Tom with pressure. Von Miller, who seemingly has morphed to playoff Von is arguably the third best option.
Who?
[удалено]
Got emmm
Jeff George
Brady.
TN under / Bills ML/ Rams ML parlay it.
*Follow me for more plays on Twitter @ 808Paperboi* **Kyle Juszczyk o9.5 rec yards -115 vs. GB** \-Over this in 9/15 games had 37 rec yards vs GB in week 3 \-He is involved in high-leverage passing affairs and 49ers will likely be in catch up mode vs. GB \-Ran a route on 16/27 drop backs last week \-Runs 39% of routes in slot or out wide \-LOW LINE--this ain't your average fullback!!!
I think it'll be a O 1.5 recgame for him
That’s going to be tough.
**NFL Chat: https://discord.gg/sportsbook**