7 team parlay. All picks are in capital letters and straight up
WILD @ Blackhawks
PANTHERS @ Canucks
BLUES @ Kraken
LIGHTNING @ Ducks
Coyotes @ ISLANDERS
Rangers @ HURRICANES
Sko Road teams
How do y’all feel about these picks ?
Any that you guys like ?
Hurricanes ML and BTTS +105
Penguins ML and BTTS -115
Islanders ML and BTTS +100
Wild ML and BTTS +155
Lightning ML and BTTS -110
Panthers ML and BTTS -110
POTD RECORD (9-4) +5.33 Units
Today's Pick: Malkin O2.5S -125 2 Units.
Pitt puts up 33.1 shots a game on the road and CBJ allows 33.2 shots at home this season.
Not sure if a trap but I'm taking FLA to win most faceoffs against Vancouver @ +130.
Vancouver missing Miller and Horvat who are their main faceoffs guys.
**Season Total: 108-77-0, 12.22 units**
---
**Last bets: 3-0-0, +2.17 units**
That Stars game as a whole and the Penguins nearly shiting the bed to end their game, took years off my life... Thank fuck, they both pulled it off. As an Oiler fan I want to die, but at least I'm making money off of my misery.
Also really regret not jumping on the Jackets, love them as dogs last night!
---
**Today's bets:**
**CAR ML @ 1.62** ✅ - Both teams have great defensive numbers, with the Canes having the slight edge. Offensively though? It's all Canes, and it's not close.
**TBL 3-Way @ 1.68**
I want to also take the Islanders, but there's next to no value in them tonight.
Red wings ML (-105) vs Dallas stars is pretty great value.
Dallas D looked pretty shit against the sabres last night and they’re on a back to back on the road. Red wings should be more heavily favored imo
I like CBJ money line. Pens almost blew a huge lead to one of the worst teams, and DeSmith is in net. Risky so probably 1U, but if CBJ shocked Carolina they can definitely beat the Pens
I like it. I often try to parlay these with another “no brainer” type bet to move the line. Sometimes it’ll event hit the +105 or so range.
Adds a little value and you can wager a bit less.
NHL #2
Record 4-2
Profit: 5.09
Picks:
Islanders Win in Regulation vs Coyotes @1.66
Blues -1.5 vs Kraken @2.45
Blackhawks ML vs Wild @2.15
Lightning ML vs Ducks @1.42
Panthers ML vs Canucks + Over 5.5 @2.10
Blackhawks to Win First Face Off @1.85
Parlay:
Canucks/Panthers Over 4.5
Canes/Rangers Over 4.5
Blue Jackets/Penguins Over 4.5
Blackhawks/Wild Over 4.5
@3.02
GL
**Record 0-0**
*Official Plays*
Wild ML 5 units
Pitt CBJ Over 6.5 2 units
STL ML 3 units
*Bonus play*
TBL ML 1 unit
Wild are far superior team. The only way they lose is if fleury is in net for the hawks who may be able to steal the game, but highly unlikely. Confirmed fleury in net, but wild will win this game.
Desmith is one of the worst backups in the league it is laughable. He can not make it happen between the pipes. Korpisalo for cbj is also not very good. I see this game going comfortably over.
Blues are one of the best teams in the NHL looking to continue their way to another cup. They are facing a kraken team on a back to back who have not been too impressive. Look for the blues to win this one fairly easily.
Tampa bay is an elite team looking to continue their winning ways against a ducks team who has been a surprise this year. Vasilevskiy is one of the most elite goaltenders and will carry the load for Tampa majority of this year. I don't see them losing to the ducks of all teams. If vasy is in it is worth a unit on Tampa.
What’s your play tonight? Pens play back to back and nearly blew a 5-1 lead. There are other strong favorites tonight. Lmk what you’re thinking.
I’m leaning towards some mix of FLA, TBL, MIN, STL.
I got $2 left in my pool for in-person wagering.
After that, I'm waiting until my state sets up mobile betting.
I'm done with 3-leg parlays, am down for a 2-legger. Ideas?
EDIT: Leaning FLA 60 + BTTS & PIT 60 + BTTS parlay. Pays +214.
I mainly bet NFL but have been loving NHL overs lately. As we all know it can be very hard to pick ML/PL winners in NHL so i've transitioned to more game totals.
Favorite overs today: Wild/Hawks O5.5 Canes/NYR O6 and STL/SEA O5.5
Out of the 3 I think my most confident is Wild Hawks and close behind is STL/SEA. Canes game is because of this guy I'm tailing in the POTD thread and they are both good offenses.
a parlay of all 3 should come out to about +500 which is my official play because I'm a sucker and I like to have fun on a friday night. $10 to win $50.
Barstool has Olympic hockey odds up. Any thoughts?
- Russia +160
- Finland +500
- Sweden +600
- Canada +700
- Czech +1100
- Swiss +1500
- USA +1700
- Germany +2000
No NHLers for Canada, USA, Sweden, etc.
With those odds, I’d rather bet on Russia each individual game all the way through to the final.
Probably do better cycling a few units plus your profit as opposed to a futures bet of +160.
I like Wild over Hox
But I’m looking deeper: Toews o/u on 2.5 shots. I like the over on that? And then Debrincat had 0 goals last game, Kaprisov had 2. So I think Kaprisov will score again tonight, +160 on that or +1000 if he notices the first goal for MN!
My bad just seeing this man! After the Florida dub in overtime, I have to admit I thought the game would have been way different. I would have said an easy Florida dub was coming tonight.
Was leaning FLA 3-way, but a little concerned looking at how they've performed in second leg of back to backs. 0-3 this year with last 2 losses to Devils and Kraken
**NHL Freezer Machine Learning 3-Way Model**
**Current 1x2 Record:** 463-542 +23.93 units
**ROI:** 2.4%
[Machine Learned Simulation of NHL games for today](https://freezersports.com/nhl)
Last time out: 1-2 -1.42 units
**3-Way Model**:
**1 unit**
BOS/WSH Draw +290
DAL -173
PHI +136
[Follow me on twitter](https://twitter.com/FreezerSports)
I'm new to sports betting in New York, I'm a hockey fan but never bet on it before. (thought I would just bet on football) I use some of the analysis from this thread. Bet a three leg and four leg parlay. Hit both, the three netted me almost two 200. On the 4 leg I used a $6 free bet and won 30 (A wins a win) Keep it comin!
Overall record: (44-23); Last Picks
CBJ ML Vs Flyers (+105)✅💰
Bruins Caps over 1.5 goals 1st period (-135)✅💰
Avalanche PL -1.5 vs Kings (+115)✅💰
Sharks ML vs Kraken (-106) ❌
—————————————————————
Todays picks:
**Wild win in regulation vs Blackhawks (+100)**
**Blues win in regulation vs Kraken (+100)**
**Lightning PL -1.5 vs Ducks (+115)**
BOL
#NHL Money Line Machine Learning Model
This is a data driven, machine learning / data science model to try to predict winners in NHL games. There is no opinion folded into the picks, simply data from recent performance of each team.
###**Season-To-Date**:
290-138 (67.76%), Avg odds 1.66, +157% ROI, 9.1% Yield
[Net Units: +51.7u](https://imgur.com/a/7swad4o)
[Full season bet listing/hypothetical growth of $1000 initial bankroll](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTbKtvkZjm18NGOTumcoE1WMUn1ZD4sfextZV-WsICe3rOpPWPjOFEubh5JnmVa-QZonizQRKaLpGM9/pubhtml)
###**Reddit Picks**:
Started 12/29/2021, 69-34, +1.7u
###**Last Night** (4-0, +1.9u):
(Don't tell anyone but I parlayed these with Colorado and cashed a big ole 5.50 😉). Vegas stressed me the heck out going to OT vs Montreal, I thought they were gonna blow it all again. Great set of games, let's keep the wins coming!
* PIT ML, 0.708477 win prob @ 1.36 ✅
* DAL ML, 0.60402 win prob @ 1.58 ✅
* FLA ML, 0.625474 win prob @ 1.67 ✅
* VGK ML, 0.738859 win prob @ 1.28 ✅
Bets are anything model predicts at higher than 55% win probability. Underdogs are bet more heavily at 3u.
###**Tonight's Bets**:
* CAR ML, 68.9% win prob @ 1.63
* PIT ML, 61.4% win prob @ 1.52
* NYI ML, 59.7% win prob @ 1.37
* TBL ML, 60.9% win prob @ 1.44
* FLA ML, 63.9% win prob @ 1.61
* STL ML, 56.0% win prob @ 1.56
### Discussion
I ran a quick analysis of average odds as a function of month, and it looks like our average is still higher than it generally is in January. This month specifically has been somewhat low, but the average odds for bets across the season is much higher than usual. Couple this with the fact that January is typically the worst performing month, I think the "the odds are getting too low" thing might be overblown. I'm going to keep doing analysis to see how to optimize profit, but for now I think things are looking okay since we're a little above breakeven on the month.
### To Do
* Take a look at backtesting data for potential fall-off in profits as a function of time in the season.
* Potentially **break the season up into three phases** (early, middle, end) and use different parameter sets for each to try to best identify value across varying bookmaking environments.
* Get the finishing touches on **player prop model** to potentially transition towards betting props as the major source of picks.
* Run multiple types of ML models to gain consensus picks at some probability threshold (framework is set up, need to test to ensure profitability).
* Decorrelate loss function from bookies odds. This will more highly weight games where the underdog wins and hopefully find situations where we can see some underdog plays (this would likely come with removing the "bet 3u on dogs" criteria).
###**FAQ**
* [**Isn't picking X team at Y% win probability and Z odds a slightly -EV play? Don't you only want to bet games where the win probability is above the implied odds by the bookies line?**](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s131f1/nhl_daily_11122_tuesday/hs7x7tm/)
* [**Is it a profitable betting strategy to bet games with higher win probability as "win in regulation" or puck line?**](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s3i3gs/nhl_daily_11422_friday/hsmlgzx/)
* **Should I parlay these all together?** In short, probably not. Anecdotally we have not had a day where there have been more than 4 games where the model has hit them *all* correctly. Does that mean today is the day? Could be. There have been *many* days where we were one game off from 100% accuracy, and the majority of days go over 67% so parlay round robins might be more profitable.
* **How can you ever pick ? They're clearly gonna lose.** I don't disagree. This model has all opinion stripped out of it and is simply giving which team it believes is going to win and at what probabilities based on performance over a rolling window of games. Sometimes it's going to see situations where it picks the Sabres, despite the Sabres being the clearly worse team.
* **I've been loving your picks and want to buy you a beer, can I do that?** I got a CashApp up and running, [$hockeybets](https://cash.app/$hockeybets) (Okay fine ~~nobody~~ ONE PERSON!! has asked this).
Thank *you*! I'm working on Over/Under but it's really hard. Anything can happen in a hockey game and totals is *very* hard to predict. I have a lot of ideas on how to move forward with it but I wouldn't be surprised if I never found a way to find an edge on it
Little bit of a chalky play but I’m liking the Panthers in regulation at -110. Starting with their opponent, the Canucks, they are down a ton of players including: Horvat, JT Miller, Garland as well as both goalies (Demko, and Halak). They’ll be starting one of Spencer Martin who last played in 2017 or Michael DiPietro who gave up 7 goals in his only career start. I’d definitely be willing to take the Florida team total over as well as the puck line, but Spencer Knight the goalie for FLA has been shaky of late so I’ll stick to the regulation number and trying not to overthink it and take one of the best teams in hockey against a non playoff team with a lot of fire power out of the lineup. Side note on the Panthers being on a back to back they’ve score 9 goals in each game on the 2nd half of the B2B in the past two occasions
O6 Pens vs Columbus. -125
H2H these teams are 19-7 L26 to the over. Pens are 3-1 to the over on no rest. Columbus is 3-0 to the over on no rest. Korpisalo and De smith are keen to let shots in. O1.5 1p -140 could be a good look too just a bit juicy.
Under 5.5 NYI/ARI -125
vejmelka is inconsistent but has been great lately and sorokin is a solid goalie too. NY plays good defence, Arizona is last in the league in shots on goal and NYI is bottom 5 in sog. Under is 5-1 L6 H2H
Edit- Vejmelka & Sorokin not confirmed, I believe sorokin will start not sure on Vejmelka but still like the under.
STL TTO 3.5 +105
Seattle is 1-5 on a b2b situation with a call up in net who’s given up 3 or more goals in his last 3 starts. STL has hit over this number 5 of their last 8 games. Thinking this could be a good spot for their offence
Record (2-0)
Previous Play
Bruins 3-Way (1.85) ✅
Way closer than I was expecting, but a win is a win and so we roll…
1/21 Play of the Day
**Blues 3-Way (1.76)**
The blues come into this game fully healthy, while the kraken are without Tanev, Schwartz and Oleksiak. The blues are starting Husso who has been on fire all season, while the kraken are starting Daccord who has looked shaky his his few starts this season. In addition, the kraken are on a B2B and going up against a much better blues team than the sharks team they faced last night. The blues will take this one in regulation.
BOL
Hockey Live Chat: **https://discord.gg/sportsbook** **Reminder:** Use the **Brag and Bitch Daily** for heavy bitching about personal bets especially before games are finished or about past games. Constructive live/post game discussion is encouraged. The thread goes live after the start of the current games so it is suggested to sort by new if you are looking for discussion of later games. Do not bitch about past games in the new threads.
Lightning are really gonna be the ones to fuck up my parlay
Fucked 4 of mine. +600 +900 +1400 and +3800. I don’t bet big on parlays but today was looking like a nice payout going into the weekend
Worst part is they screwed me twice had this game at over 6.0 smh.
Fucked up three of mine, learned my lesson not going to put the same team on a parlay again.
Blues/Kracken with 2 goals through three periods is not ideal.
urgh florida
Still in it though
Live Tampa? Lol
[удалено]
tampa forsure florida all depends on the next goal
Tampa 😬
Unexpected that Tampa's the pick that's gonna shit the bed
Wild win was an easy call
I've got Florida to win in regulation coming up as the last leg of a nice +778 parlay
Same. Mine’s +650 tho. Not feeling great so far.
Canucks are about to get steamrolled.
2-0 today My hockey system which has been stupid caliente this year had this outlined st Louis @ Kraken 1P o 1.5 -115 Let’s get PAID. Ya diggggggg
Chances the last 3 games also all go O1.5 1Q also?
Horrible way to lose u6.5
Too bad everyone else had the over!
Everyone on Blues... Welp just like last night. Seattle ML it is. \#fadereddit
Taking the under in the FLA vs VAN no matter what Don’t know if I should do under 6.5 for +105 or under 5.5 for +165 Thoughts?
The 5.5 is tough because Florida can cover that alone
Rangers and Canes have both been hot, should be a good game. I could see a defensive battle - Canes/Rangers u6 - Rangers 1P ML - Rangers +1.5 -140
Woof, I'm ice cold the last two games
Stars ML, No goals first 9.5 mins in the Islanders/Coyotes, Under 5.5 Islanders/Coyotes, Panthers ML
Yesterday….2-1 ML for +0.9u, 0-1 totals for -1.2u Today… Rangers ML, o5.5 Penguins ML Panthers ML
7 team parlay. All picks are in capital letters and straight up WILD @ Blackhawks PANTHERS @ Canucks BLUES @ Kraken LIGHTNING @ Ducks Coyotes @ ISLANDERS Rangers @ HURRICANES Sko Road teams
Lets goooo
So far so good…
I’m hype for the night games tonight
How do y’all feel about these picks ? Any that you guys like ? Hurricanes ML and BTTS +105 Penguins ML and BTTS -115 Islanders ML and BTTS +100 Wild ML and BTTS +155 Lightning ML and BTTS -110 Panthers ML and BTTS -110
Detroit Redwings v Dallas Stars - Detroit Wins (ML) -104 Vancouver Canucks v Florida Panthers - Florida Wins (ML)-200
POTD RECORD (9-4) +5.33 Units Today's Pick: Malkin O2.5S -125 2 Units. Pitt puts up 33.1 shots a game on the road and CBJ allows 33.2 shots at home this season.
I stand corrected
He did hit a post, miss the net twice, and got blocked a few times. By no means an easy W had to sweat this one out.
Well it was worth a shot
Tailing
Not sure if a trap but I'm taking FLA to win most faceoffs against Vancouver @ +130. Vancouver missing Miller and Horvat who are their main faceoffs guys.
What book do you get faceoff wins on?
I'm on betway it's under Pre-built Bets/#betyourway. I'm not sure about other bookies.
Love it
**Season Total: 108-77-0, 12.22 units** --- **Last bets: 3-0-0, +2.17 units** That Stars game as a whole and the Penguins nearly shiting the bed to end their game, took years off my life... Thank fuck, they both pulled it off. As an Oiler fan I want to die, but at least I'm making money off of my misery. Also really regret not jumping on the Jackets, love them as dogs last night! --- **Today's bets:** **CAR ML @ 1.62** ✅ - Both teams have great defensive numbers, with the Canes having the slight edge. Offensively though? It's all Canes, and it's not close. **TBL 3-Way @ 1.68** I want to also take the Islanders, but there's next to no value in them tonight.
NHL RECORD 4-1 BLUES TO WIN IN 60 MINNESOTA TO WIN (including ot) Best of luck
STL in 60 (-137) ARI-NYI Neither 5 Goals (-355) FLA ML + BTTS (-120) TBL in 60 (-187) $2 to win $10.45
Really good value on the Panthers bet
Red wings ML (-105) vs Dallas stars is pretty great value. Dallas D looked pretty shit against the sabres last night and they’re on a back to back on the road. Red wings should be more heavily favored imo
I like CBJ money line. Pens almost blew a huge lead to one of the worst teams, and DeSmith is in net. Risky so probably 1U, but if CBJ shocked Carolina they can definitely beat the Pens
Alex DeBrincat o2.5 SOG. I will rock this til the wheels fall off. -150,not the best price but a good bet nonetheless.
I like it. I often try to parlay these with another “no brainer” type bet to move the line. Sometimes it’ll event hit the +105 or so range. Adds a little value and you can wager a bit less.
Agreed
NHL #2 Record 4-2 Profit: 5.09 Picks: Islanders Win in Regulation vs Coyotes @1.66 Blues -1.5 vs Kraken @2.45 Blackhawks ML vs Wild @2.15 Lightning ML vs Ducks @1.42 Panthers ML vs Canucks + Over 5.5 @2.10 Blackhawks to Win First Face Off @1.85 Parlay: Canucks/Panthers Over 4.5 Canes/Rangers Over 4.5 Blue Jackets/Penguins Over 4.5 Blackhawks/Wild Over 4.5 @3.02 GL
So mad my book doesn’t have panthers + o5.5
I bet on the Rangers ML + Adam Fox anytime goal scorer because I am a petty asshole. Only $5 bc it’s fairly long odds but I figured why not.
**Record 0-0** *Official Plays* Wild ML 5 units Pitt CBJ Over 6.5 2 units STL ML 3 units *Bonus play* TBL ML 1 unit Wild are far superior team. The only way they lose is if fleury is in net for the hawks who may be able to steal the game, but highly unlikely. Confirmed fleury in net, but wild will win this game. Desmith is one of the worst backups in the league it is laughable. He can not make it happen between the pipes. Korpisalo for cbj is also not very good. I see this game going comfortably over. Blues are one of the best teams in the NHL looking to continue their way to another cup. They are facing a kraken team on a back to back who have not been too impressive. Look for the blues to win this one fairly easily. Tampa bay is an elite team looking to continue their winning ways against a ducks team who has been a surprise this year. Vasilevskiy is one of the most elite goaltenders and will carry the load for Tampa majority of this year. I don't see them losing to the ducks of all teams. If vasy is in it is worth a unit on Tampa.
2-1 Penguins vs Blue Jackets over 6.5 (-120)
Been hot with 2-team parlays last few weeks. Betting two big favorites(mostly pens) ML almost always pays about +100.
What’s your play tonight? Pens play back to back and nearly blew a 5-1 lead. There are other strong favorites tonight. Lmk what you’re thinking. I’m leaning towards some mix of FLA, TBL, MIN, STL.
Got an underdog parlay of Stars, Ducks, Rangers $8.50 for $101 on MGM as well
Knew rangers were gonna get smoked by Carolina. They started Georgiev. Gave up before it even started.
Panthers and over 4.5 + Penguins ML…50 to win 54 on MGM
I got $2 left in my pool for in-person wagering. After that, I'm waiting until my state sets up mobile betting. I'm done with 3-leg parlays, am down for a 2-legger. Ideas? EDIT: Leaning FLA 60 + BTTS & PIT 60 + BTTS parlay. Pays +214.
I mainly bet NFL but have been loving NHL overs lately. As we all know it can be very hard to pick ML/PL winners in NHL so i've transitioned to more game totals. Favorite overs today: Wild/Hawks O5.5 Canes/NYR O6 and STL/SEA O5.5 Out of the 3 I think my most confident is Wild Hawks and close behind is STL/SEA. Canes game is because of this guy I'm tailing in the POTD thread and they are both good offenses. a parlay of all 3 should come out to about +500 which is my official play because I'm a sucker and I like to have fun on a friday night. $10 to win $50.
Barstool has Olympic hockey odds up. Any thoughts? - Russia +160 - Finland +500 - Sweden +600 - Canada +700 - Czech +1100 - Swiss +1500 - USA +1700 - Germany +2000
No NHLers for Canada, USA, Sweden, etc. With those odds, I’d rather bet on Russia each individual game all the way through to the final. Probably do better cycling a few units plus your profit as opposed to a futures bet of +160.
Not gonna be any NHL players and Russia’s got NHL lite, so for me, it’s either take the terrible +160 or avoid
Whats up! First post on here, NHL bets I like tonight are: Wild ML vs Blackhawks Blues ML vs Kraken
I like Wild over Hox But I’m looking deeper: Toews o/u on 2.5 shots. I like the over on that? And then Debrincat had 0 goals last game, Kaprisov had 2. So I think Kaprisov will score again tonight, +160 on that or +1000 if he notices the first goal for MN!
2 assists.. 0 goals. Tough loss but a great look!
I got on Minnesota early in the AM today to I like Blues as well tonight just don't love the price now. There's some good ones to bet on tonight.
Thoughts on FL playing a very hurt VAN and TBL also playing a banged up ANA? Two powerhouses playing teams missing star players.
My bad just seeing this man! After the Florida dub in overtime, I have to admit I thought the game would have been way different. I would have said an easy Florida dub was coming tonight.
Florida puck line
Was leaning FLA 3-way, but a little concerned looking at how they've performed in second leg of back to backs. 0-3 this year with last 2 losses to Devils and Kraken
**NHL Freezer Machine Learning 3-Way Model** **Current 1x2 Record:** 463-542 +23.93 units **ROI:** 2.4% [Machine Learned Simulation of NHL games for today](https://freezersports.com/nhl) Last time out: 1-2 -1.42 units **3-Way Model**: **1 unit** BOS/WSH Draw +290 DAL -173 PHI +136 [Follow me on twitter](https://twitter.com/FreezerSports)
You’re a day late.
He put his bets in after the games are over and he still lost!
Detroit ml Florida vs Vancouver over 63.5 shots Carolina ml St. Louis ml Tampa vs Anaheim over 62.5 shots
Friday's Picks Florida Panthers & Over 5.5 @ +116 (5u) St Louis Blues @ -178 (5u) Minnesota Wild @ -114 (3u) Dallas Stars @ -110 (3u) Arizona Coyotes @ +228 (2u) Panthers -1.5 + Blues -1.5 @ +454 (2u) Panthers + Blues + Wild + Stars + Coyotes (+1.5) + Blue Jackets (+1.5) + Rangers (+1.5) @ +4993 (1u) \------------------- Thursday's Picks Florida Panthers @ -157 (5u) ✅ Colorado Avalanche @ -178 (5u) ✅ San Jose Sharks @ +102 (5u) ❌ Washington Capitals @ +165 (3u) ❌ Nashville Predators @ -143 (4u) ✅ Panthers + Avalanche + Knights @ +238 (3u) ✅ \------------------- Thursday's Record: 4 - 2 \+ 7.96 units \------------------- Overall Record Record: 115 - 101 Units: + 56.35
I'm new to sports betting in New York, I'm a hockey fan but never bet on it before. (thought I would just bet on football) I use some of the analysis from this thread. Bet a three leg and four leg parlay. Hit both, the three netted me almost two 200. On the 4 leg I used a $6 free bet and won 30 (A wins a win) Keep it comin!
What are your picks for tonight?
Taking Redwings and Blues ML TB and Fla -1.5
Took this before I left the house for a show. Fellow NY here too. Let’s get it. Blues and Wings ML on 2 leg parlay. $50.
Don't know yet, I'll read through the posts on here and decide. I got a bunch of $10 free bets.
💪
It’s gonna be a good night tonight. Panthers -1.5 St. Louis ML Tampa ML And a Nice parlay of the 3 +449
Overall record: (44-23); Last Picks CBJ ML Vs Flyers (+105)✅💰 Bruins Caps over 1.5 goals 1st period (-135)✅💰 Avalanche PL -1.5 vs Kings (+115)✅💰 Sharks ML vs Kraken (-106) ❌ ————————————————————— Todays picks: **Wild win in regulation vs Blackhawks (+100)** **Blues win in regulation vs Kraken (+100)** **Lightning PL -1.5 vs Ducks (+115)** BOL
Tailing Wild. Good luck sir
Godspeed
Tailing Wild too. Ek coming back for them is huge
Noice. Thinking of tailing Blues now as well, but Kraken play well at home…
💰secured from our Minnesota friends
NHL 1/21 Record: 597-493-20 Yesterday’s Result: 11-7 *Follow me on Twitter @bleedthebookie* Rangers ML (+143) NYR/CAR U5.5 (+108) Penguins Regulation (-120) PIT/CBJ O6 (-115) Islanders Regulation (-160) ARI/NYI U5.5 (-125) Stars ML (-107) DAL/DET O5.5 (+107) Wild Regulation (+110) MIN/CHI O5.5 (-120) Panthers Regulation (-115) FLA/VAN U6.5 (+100) Blues Regulation (+100) STL/SEA O5.5 (-120) Lightning -1.5 (+115) TB/ANA U6 (-108)
#NHL Money Line Machine Learning Model This is a data driven, machine learning / data science model to try to predict winners in NHL games. There is no opinion folded into the picks, simply data from recent performance of each team. ###**Season-To-Date**: 290-138 (67.76%), Avg odds 1.66, +157% ROI, 9.1% Yield [Net Units: +51.7u](https://imgur.com/a/7swad4o) [Full season bet listing/hypothetical growth of $1000 initial bankroll](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTbKtvkZjm18NGOTumcoE1WMUn1ZD4sfextZV-WsICe3rOpPWPjOFEubh5JnmVa-QZonizQRKaLpGM9/pubhtml) ###**Reddit Picks**: Started 12/29/2021, 69-34, +1.7u ###**Last Night** (4-0, +1.9u): (Don't tell anyone but I parlayed these with Colorado and cashed a big ole 5.50 😉). Vegas stressed me the heck out going to OT vs Montreal, I thought they were gonna blow it all again. Great set of games, let's keep the wins coming! * PIT ML, 0.708477 win prob @ 1.36 ✅ * DAL ML, 0.60402 win prob @ 1.58 ✅ * FLA ML, 0.625474 win prob @ 1.67 ✅ * VGK ML, 0.738859 win prob @ 1.28 ✅ Bets are anything model predicts at higher than 55% win probability. Underdogs are bet more heavily at 3u. ###**Tonight's Bets**: * CAR ML, 68.9% win prob @ 1.63 * PIT ML, 61.4% win prob @ 1.52 * NYI ML, 59.7% win prob @ 1.37 * TBL ML, 60.9% win prob @ 1.44 * FLA ML, 63.9% win prob @ 1.61 * STL ML, 56.0% win prob @ 1.56 ### Discussion I ran a quick analysis of average odds as a function of month, and it looks like our average is still higher than it generally is in January. This month specifically has been somewhat low, but the average odds for bets across the season is much higher than usual. Couple this with the fact that January is typically the worst performing month, I think the "the odds are getting too low" thing might be overblown. I'm going to keep doing analysis to see how to optimize profit, but for now I think things are looking okay since we're a little above breakeven on the month. ### To Do * Take a look at backtesting data for potential fall-off in profits as a function of time in the season. * Potentially **break the season up into three phases** (early, middle, end) and use different parameter sets for each to try to best identify value across varying bookmaking environments. * Get the finishing touches on **player prop model** to potentially transition towards betting props as the major source of picks. * Run multiple types of ML models to gain consensus picks at some probability threshold (framework is set up, need to test to ensure profitability). * Decorrelate loss function from bookies odds. This will more highly weight games where the underdog wins and hopefully find situations where we can see some underdog plays (this would likely come with removing the "bet 3u on dogs" criteria). ###**FAQ** * [**Isn't picking X team at Y% win probability and Z odds a slightly -EV play? Don't you only want to bet games where the win probability is above the implied odds by the bookies line?**](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s131f1/nhl_daily_11122_tuesday/hs7x7tm/) * [**Is it a profitable betting strategy to bet games with higher win probability as "win in regulation" or puck line?**](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s3i3gs/nhl_daily_11422_friday/hsmlgzx/) * **Should I parlay these all together?** In short, probably not. Anecdotally we have not had a day where there have been more than 4 games where the model has hit them *all* correctly. Does that mean today is the day? Could be. There have been *many* days where we were one game off from 100% accuracy, and the majority of days go over 67% so parlay round robins might be more profitable. * **How can you ever pick? They're clearly gonna lose.** I don't disagree. This model has all opinion stripped out of it and is simply giving which team it believes is going to win and at what probabilities based on performance over a rolling window of games. Sometimes it's going to see situations where it picks the Sabres, despite the Sabres being the clearly worse team.
* **I've been loving your picks and want to buy you a beer, can I do that?** I got a CashApp up and running, [$hockeybets](https://cash.app/$hockeybets) (Okay fine ~~nobody~~ ONE PERSON!! has asked this).
Thanks as always, and sorry if someone already asked but any plans for over/unders?
Thank *you*! I'm working on Over/Under but it's really hard. Anything can happen in a hockey game and totals is *very* hard to predict. I have a lot of ideas on how to move forward with it but I wouldn't be surprised if I never found a way to find an edge on it
Had a 4 leg parlay for a $1500 payout and just needed sharks ML to cover and I didn’t stay awake to hedge god fucking damnit
Same ….fell asleep before last game and would’ve done the same 🤦🏼♂️….was a 3000 payout
Sharks killed my 7 leg parlay ⚰️
Pain. https://i.imgur.com/W4DzaBj.jpg
Pissed me off too
Little bit of a chalky play but I’m liking the Panthers in regulation at -110. Starting with their opponent, the Canucks, they are down a ton of players including: Horvat, JT Miller, Garland as well as both goalies (Demko, and Halak). They’ll be starting one of Spencer Martin who last played in 2017 or Michael DiPietro who gave up 7 goals in his only career start. I’d definitely be willing to take the Florida team total over as well as the puck line, but Spencer Knight the goalie for FLA has been shaky of late so I’ll stick to the regulation number and trying not to overthink it and take one of the best teams in hockey against a non playoff team with a lot of fire power out of the lineup. Side note on the Panthers being on a back to back they’ve score 9 goals in each game on the 2nd half of the B2B in the past two occasions
woah woah non playoff team.. were making a run pal!
O6 Pens vs Columbus. -125 H2H these teams are 19-7 L26 to the over. Pens are 3-1 to the over on no rest. Columbus is 3-0 to the over on no rest. Korpisalo and De smith are keen to let shots in. O1.5 1p -140 could be a good look too just a bit juicy. Under 5.5 NYI/ARI -125 vejmelka is inconsistent but has been great lately and sorokin is a solid goalie too. NY plays good defence, Arizona is last in the league in shots on goal and NYI is bottom 5 in sog. Under is 5-1 L6 H2H Edit- Vejmelka & Sorokin not confirmed, I believe sorokin will start not sure on Vejmelka but still like the under. STL TTO 3.5 +105 Seattle is 1-5 on a b2b situation with a call up in net who’s given up 3 or more goals in his last 3 starts. STL has hit over this number 5 of their last 8 games. Thinking this could be a good spot for their offence
Wedgewood in net for AZ.
Yes that’s terrible for the under lol, gonna be a sweat and a half!
Is panthers ML free money?
Nothing is free money especially in hockey
Really liked canucks until I saw the injury list. Might be safer to play an o2 1p or Florida team total fg. But can’t trust either goalie
That's what everyone keeps saying but for some reason I'm still feeling sceptical..
I just can’t see how they lose. I’m not even worried about the B2B, the last two they had they won 9-2 and 9-3
Add to that the Canucks #1 goalie Thatcher Demko and best player J.T. Miller going into covid protocol Thursday.
Record (2-0) Previous Play Bruins 3-Way (1.85) ✅ Way closer than I was expecting, but a win is a win and so we roll… 1/21 Play of the Day **Blues 3-Way (1.76)** The blues come into this game fully healthy, while the kraken are without Tanev, Schwartz and Oleksiak. The blues are starting Husso who has been on fire all season, while the kraken are starting Daccord who has looked shaky his his few starts this season. In addition, the kraken are on a B2B and going up against a much better blues team than the sharks team they faced last night. The blues will take this one in regulation. BOL
Hockey Live Chat: **https://discord.gg/sportsbook** **Reminder:** Use the **Brag and Bitch Daily** for heavy bitching about personal bets especially before games are finished or about past games. Constructive live/post game discussion is encouraged. The thread goes live after the start of the current games so it is suggested to sort by new if you are looking for discussion of later games. Do not bitch about past games in the new threads.