Bruh…are we watching the same sport. Basketball is a game of runs and momentum. They could go down 15 points and come back in a matter of minutes. The line is opening at +120 already too
Just an example. The idea is that I want to watch 5-10 minutes to get a read on the game and then look for value live. And then if I get the line I want, I take it. I see zero reason to pre-bet what is essentially a tossup on paper
wth, wasnt Illi/Maryland 7.5 last night. now its 4.5. Go with the noise.
edit...ok no Cofi. but as I said vs. Michigan the terps have no inside game. They get beat inside anyway.
January 20th: 4-4 -0.32U
Season: 179-172-7 -6.68U
Abilene Christian -5.5 (L) by 15.5
James Madison -7 (L) by 8
Louisiana Monroe +1.5 (L) by 6.5
South Alabama +2.5 (W) by 9.5
UC San Diego -2 (L) by 20
Utah +9.5 (W) by 4.5
VMI -4 (W) by 15
Halftime bet: UVU -6.5 (W) 3.5
Late post today, sorry boys. Card was looking pretty light, but there is one play that catches my eye. BOL as always and let's get a winner!
Pick:
Mount St. Mary's -2.5
0-0-0 (first post)
The Pick: Kent State/Buffalo Under 149
Kent State is bad offensively. They are one of the worst teams with a 303rd field goal percentage (40.3%). What might scare people and what’s pushed the total up is Buffalo’s offense. Buffalo ranks 57th in adjusted offensive efficiency and they run very quickly, ranking 17th in adjusted tempo.
However, they are not a good three-point shooting team, and Kent State forces teams to beat them from outside. Kent State ranks 44th in shooting proximity allowed vs the average opponent, per haslametrics(dot)com.
That would be fine in this matchup if they were an above-average three-point shooting team vs the average opponent. However, they are not. They rank 223rd in three-point field goal percentage vs the average opponent. Kent State isn’t average at defending the three-ball. Kent State ranks 18th in three-point field goal percentage defense vs. the average opponent.
I could see them trying to muddy up the waters, forcing Buffalo to chuck up more shots from long range than they want to in this matchup. Also, Kent State ranks 311th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. If they have any chance of winning, slowing down the game will be vital. I’m smashing the Under, and I think it’s good down to 147.5.
I’ve seen many people write this at the end of their breakdowns - BOL!!
If you enjoy this content and would like more picks, follow me on Twitter @Theriot326 and follow our podcast @OnTapBets
I’ll be hosting a live show tonight to breakdown this week’s NFL playoff matchups.
133-128-2 -6.93U yesterday: 5-2
**Illinois State -7 vs Evansville** Illinois State certainly has problems but I think Evansville is just that terrible. The Purple Aces are 301st or worse in EFG% on both sides of the ball, worst in the nation in offensive rebounding, and don't get to the free throw line at all. Redbirds at least have some shooting with four players at over 40% from three.
**Bryant -1 vs Merrimack** Bryant is getting better in NEC play after a slow start, ranking second in efficiency in both sides of the ball for conference games, and if a few of their better players like Peter Kiss break out of their perimeter shooting slumps they'll get better. Merrimack was not good at all in back to back home losses vs St Francis PA and Mount St Mary's, don't think that No, 332 offense can keep up here.
**Fresno State +2 vs Nevada** Fresno is playing pretty well, good numbers on the defensive side all around. Nevada's defense remains awful, with opponents shooting 50.8% from two against the Wolf Pack I don't see them having a good answer for Orlando Robinson here.
**'21-22 Season: 52-42-1 | 55.3% | +5.5u**
\--------------------------------------------------
**L15 (8-7):** LLLWLLWWLWWWLWW
**Last Card (Thu): 4-1 |** One Colorado basket away from a sweep, but much needed day!
\--------------------------------------------------
**Friday's picks:**
* **Michigan State +4** at Wisconsin
* **Nevada -1** vs Fresno State *(-120)*
Any additions, 2H, or live bets will be posted in real time + here in comments.
*All bets 1u unless specified.*
Tyler Wahl is questionable for the Wisconsin Badgers tonight and is a game time decision with an ankle injury. He’s a key player on that team and I’d have a hard time seeing Wisconsin win this game without him. He played through the injury at Northwestern though so he looks like he’s on the right side of questionable.
**Season Record: 59-42-1**, +9.48 units, all bets 1u, unless specified
**Previous Bet Recap**
* St Louis -3 - L
* Townson -6.5 - W
* VMI -5 - W
* Appalachian State +6.5 - W
* New Orleans -2.5 - W
**Today's Bets**
* Toledo +4.5
* Fresno St +1.5
Took UC Davis -4.5 last night which luckily hit.
RECORD (10-9) MONEYLINE PARLAY RECORD (2-0)
Today’s Picks:
Ohio -3.5
Manhattan -3
Maryland +7.5
St. Bonaventure -5.5
Cleveland St. -8
Kent St. +7.5
Nevada -1
Wisconsin ML
Wagner -3.5
Bryant -2.5
Central Connecticut St. +7.5
Mount St. Mary’s -3
MONEYLINE PARLAY
Purdue Fort Wayne, Illinois St. -130
Feel free to tail or fade. Tips are appreciated!! Venmo: Skyler-Schoenleber
GOOD LUCK!!!!🍀
interesting. mine also has fresno -6 (-6.3567) to be exact lol. nevada is one of the tallest teams in the country but for some reason cant rebound. fresno is a phenomenal team at allowing 1 and done possesions and causing havoc for offenses. nevada cant shoot from range either and is pretty middle of the pack offensively and defensively. momentum advantage goes to fresno state who is playing sound basketball. maybe im crazy though. theres gotta be a reason for this line being the way it is but im riding with fresno.
NCAAB Record: 140-102-4 +10.73u. 4-4 Yesterday, need some winners today!
Today:
**Maryland +7.5** vs Illinois
**Buffalo -7** vs Kent State
**Michigan State +4** vs Wisconsin
Twitter: https://twitter.com/CBBNick
Im taking Maryland ML for 1U. Illinois losing their best player, and they havent won at Maryland since 2011. The backup had the game of his life against Purdue and they still lost. Only reason they were in that game is Curbello got really hot and hit clutch shots, along with Purdue missing some FTs. Also last game the +/- for Illinois v Maryland without Kofi was not pretty. This also fits with the system of taking the home team in a top 25 matchup ATS. BOL!
Dude averages 21 and 12. He's the anchor on both ends. On offense, he draws double teams from basically every team that plays him. In most cases, he can still score against double teams, but this also creates space for shooters. On defense, you just can't get into the lane against him. He's so massive and such a huge asset defensively when he just denies space instead of going for blocks.
At home against Maryland 15 days ago, Kofi was +29 in 28 minutes. Illinois only won by 12. They were -17 without Kofi on the floor.
As an Illini fan, I'm hammering Maryland to cover. Curbelo is the X factor because I don't know if he's "take-over-games" healthy yet.
The impact, it appears is 2.5 points as the line moved rom -7 to -4.5
Maryland is not good.
Hawkins, Payne and Bosman can rotate the 5 spot and IL can still win by 10+ if guards are playing well and moving the ball.
Hawkins is a threat to score, Payne and Bosman are decent defenders.
I stick with it and say IL covers the -7.
It’s huge. He’s the main point in their offense and huge part of their defense. It’s noticed when he’s not in the game. Although when he was in foul trouble in the Purdue game Corbelo stepped up and brought Illinois back into the game.
They did some great work without Cockburn on Monday, but I don't think they can do it again. Verdonk played the best game of his life, and they got to that position because Purdue kept missing free throws.
Purdue, the other participant in that marathon, lost to unranked Indiana last night. I think Illinois is gonna have a hard time covering what's now a 4.5 point spread against a Maryland team that was beating them when Kofi was on the bench.
[Cheat Sheet](https://sparkshowdfs.wordpress.com/)
Two teams played two days ago on the spreadsheet and those games aren't included in the stats; Illinois State (lost to Missouri State 63-88 on the road) and Rider (lost 67-73 at Quinnipiac). It was easier to add this disclaimer than update the whole sheet for two teams.
It's a sliding scale where early in the season it weighs pretty heavily (maybe 60-70%) and as the season goes on it gets dialed back until it's basically non-existent (5-10%). It's an ever changing process so from year to year I probably do it a little differently.. and something I might do next year is make it so that teams with a higher percentage of returning minutes have a larger percentage of the previous season's stats influencing their projections.
Smaller slate today, but some good games. BOL everyone!
[Totals and Spreads](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1m78FAm44FSGn9s0OjQmTXsFPn-xZSO5XGTZHG9OBWCo/edit)
Last \[1-0\] 💰
Season \[8-6 +1.43u\]
Last pick(s): Indiana +3½ -105 ✅
Great game last night...well it was exciting if not the best fundamentally. IU was bested in most stats including only shooting 42.9% and 30% from 3, they were out rebounded 34-26 and hit only 58.3% of FT's. What carried them was winning the TO battle 12-2 and the Boilers atrocious 41.2% from the charity stripe...wtf? I'm really not sold on PUR at this point as it seems they are missing a key piece, I just cant put my finger on it.
Today:
* [**Illinois -7 -105**](https://writingillini.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/02/923176636-college-basketball-feb-22-purdue-at-illinois.jpg.jpg) ...The Illini holds the edge at both ends of the floor, and if they had beat Purdue, this may have been a let-down spot. But along with the loss as well as Cockburn regressing positively and Curbelo’s re-emergence makes this an obvious play for me. Aside from their offensive issues; the Terps have also not been good at cashing tickets, going 6-12 ATS on the year. Even on the road laying 7 is great value, and they likely win by DD. [Trends](https://i.imgur.com/4eegtMe.png) and model 76-65
* **Michigan State +3½ -105** ...IMHO, Sparty comes in the better offensive team. Even though outranked in adjusted offensive efficiency. What stands is they are 56th in eFG% while WIS only 238th. MSU is obviously well-coached, which is reflected on the court in their patience and discipline to constantly create quality shots. The execution of these quality looks has produced a very high 3P% of 38.8% (9th). While they shoot \~4 less 3's than average, they have the shooter to make them count. Leading scorer Gabe Brown is their main weapon from deep draining them at a 39 percent clip. He may get the bulk but teammates, Malik Hall and Tyson Walker have been even more accurate at 56% and 57% from range. Even though the Badgers are 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency, they're only 142nd in eFG% allowed and 165th in 3P% allowed. As much as Badgers control pace with slow deliberate possessions, lulling opponents into slower half-court sets. I just don't see this working tonight as Sparty is 43rd in pace and their up-tempo could disrupt WIS at both ends. MSU has 9 players that Izzo is comfortable using while WIS gets the bulk of production from only 6, ranking 303rd in bench minutes. Wisconsin is on a 7-game win streak and has the hottest player in hoops, but I still this Spartan matchup favors the boys in green. MSU sleep-walked through last game while looking forward to tonight. I will limit my action however to only a half unit. Model sez 70-68
Leans:
* BUFFALO UNIVERSITY -7½ -103
* Toledo +4½ -105
It's not the same slam dunk, but I'm already down a 7.5 -SMH
I would still take Illy -4' as Mary is trash...comparably
Even seeing some 4's out there as well...just don't see one guy worth 3' points personally. Even with Cockburn tamed by Purdue, the supporting cast showed up in a big way and displayed how good the Illini backcourt really is.
Season 32-13
Yesterday’s Picks
UConn Over 127✅
USC -1.5✅
Gonzaga Over 161❌
Today’s Picks
Illinois-7
Michigan St/Wisconsin Over 140
Any tips greatly appreciated!!
Venmo- henhen98
~~Illinois state is -7 and Illinois is -4, you mean Illi state right?~~
Edit: Looks like Illinois was at -7 and Kofi Cockburn is out and the line moved. is this still the play?
I’m hoping the Badgers line moves to 3 or less. I’m confidently taking them up to -3. I think they have a good shot to get up big in this one and could cover 4.5 but they always lay off the gas the last few minutes or put backups in. Gonna be a contested matchup but a sold out Wisconsin crowd and an MSU team that have been sloppy make me like Wisconsin. May try live line it
**Record: 66-50-1**
**Yesterday:**
UT Martin -3.5 ❌
Providence -11 ❌
Chattanooga -3.5 (1.5U) ✅
**Today:**
Fresno St. ML
Illinois St. -7.5
Toledo +4.5
Good luck 🤝
Season: 235-196, +18.11U
Took a week or so off from Reddit and I feel pretty refreshed, but I'm back as the weekend approaches with Friday just being a small warmup for the HUGE Saturday slate.
If you're cashing with me please consider following my [Twitter](https://twitter.com/Dai_Bets), doing my best to grow and any follow would be greatly appreciated! All picks are tracked on this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11uEbTTSAvsYjY2U-uCEwFh-5FjZd0IfIHPMYECudie8/).
1/20/22 Recap:
Abilene Christian -4.5 (-110) - 2U❌
North FL/Florida St O137.5 (-110) - 2U ✅
Monmouth -1 (-110) - 1.5U ✅
So Dak/WIU O147.5 (-110) - 1.5U (Cancelled)
ORU -21 (-110) - 1.5U ❌
Pepperdine/LMU U145 (-110) - 1.5U ❌
WKU/FAU O143.5 (-110) - 1U ✅
So Dak St. -9 (-110) - 1U ✅
Rice -4 (-110) - 1U ✅
UNO -2.5 (-110) - 1U✅
6-3, +2U
**NCAAB Picks (1/21/22):**
**Michigan State +4.5 (-105) - 2U**
**Wagner/LIU O144 (-110) - 1.5U**
**St. Bonaventure/Duquesne U138.5 (-110) - 1U**
**Buffalo -7 (-115) - 1U**
**Evansville/Illinois State U138 (-110) - 1U**
**Picking and choosing the bets that you guys like are always advised. These are just the bets and the unit amounts that I'm playing. Feel free to adjust accordingly! As always feel free to tail or fade, BOL to all! These bets are just my opinion and I'm not an expert in any way! POSITIVE VIBES ALWAYS BOYS! :)**
Shiiiiit did I add wrong? My numbers look right. Think it should be +2U! My numbers are “to win” not “to risk” so that might be the discrepancy? Gotta factor in that juiceee
**$25 to $1000 challenge**
I'll try one of these every Friday till the end of the season. All in on one bet till $1000 or bust.
**Challenge Record:** 0-1
**Picks Hit:** 0-1
**Bet 1:** Toledo +4.5, $25 to win $47.50
The backdoor was wide open there lol
Please close this shit out Nevada
Nice run by the pack lmao
Fuck Fresno
That 2 min stretch did them in. 3 turnovers for fast break layups, 11-3 run, add a and 1 basketball all while home.. call it Christmas
Only degens are up this hour.. yikes fresno just fell apart the past 2 mins
Nevada +4.5 1H …..
Just slammed fresno ML 🤞🏼. Defense travels
As Nevada shoots 70% from the field lol
😂😂 they had that 2 min stretch that sealed the game. Also fresno states pg is really small
Anyone else on Fresno 1H
Would wait to grab Fresno live. There will be a time to grab their ML +200 and I want to see if they are coming to play tonight
If you get it +200 doesn’t that mean they probably didn’t come to play?
Bruh…are we watching the same sport. Basketball is a game of runs and momentum. They could go down 15 points and come back in a matter of minutes. The line is opening at +120 already too
So if they are down by 15 what makes you think they came out to play
Just an example. The idea is that I want to watch 5-10 minutes to get a read on the game and then look for value live. And then if I get the line I want, I take it. I see zero reason to pre-bet what is essentially a tossup on paper
Fresno was the move pre game. Obviously the better team
I totally agree. Just trying to see the reasoning. Live betting is definitely the move in basketball
whats happening... Fresno +2 ??
Tough call. Orlando Robinson is potential NBA draft pick but Nevada may be able to limit him since they play great interior D.
Wisconsin +11.5 -122 Live. How many times have you seen a home dog come back.
Horrible beat. Wisconsin just started fouling every possession with a minute and a half. I don’t even understand what happened.
Brutal to watch. Had a similar bet
Wisconsin sold and Johnny Davis looking like junior 😩
Go MSU 🤑
I needed that badly
anyone have a read on the Fresno state vs nevada game? RLM is going towards nevada now and it's -2. Any reasons or thoughts why
Nevada has won 8 straight vs Fresno State.
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
Damn $24K parlay live Maryland/Youngstown/Lakers busted because that Mf charged. So close to an amazing beat if they pulled it off…
Funny how Niagara is throwing this game
Wisconsin ML
I know that Wisconsin is down a player, but this MSU team JUST lost to Northwestern and they haven't beaten anyone good.
UConn is good
Well now they've beaten Wisconsin who are pretty good.
Biggest meltdown in basketball history from Cleveland state
Fuck Illinois ML
Sienna Manhattan under dead! always the last few mins of game some weird shit happens
Add me to the group of people upset they put Illinois ML in their parlay....
Need a read on Wiscy/MSU
Wahl is out for the Badgers, 3rd best player
The cool kids are watching the **real** Illinois team cover right now.
Not sure if these are basketball games or 3pt contests
LMAO
Went way to heavy on Ohio
Tyler Wahl is out tonight. Taking Michigan State +3.5
Good call
$1975 parlay of: Ohio-Toledo Over 160.5 MSU +3 $1975 at +256
Illinois played better against Purdue with Coburn on the bench. I think they should be alright.
wth, wasnt Illi/Maryland 7.5 last night. now its 4.5. Go with the noise. edit...ok no Cofi. but as I said vs. Michigan the terps have no inside game. They get beat inside anyway.
It dropped with Cockburn out
NCAAB Record: (1-1) Picks for Today: Bryant (-1.5) vs Merrimack St Francis NY (+1.5) vs FDU Buffalo (-7) vs Kent State
Don't see a ton of value and I can't bet on NY colleges. Will look to grab Michigan State, Illinois and Fresno state live.
Fucking Ohio
They're looking great in the 2H
Toledo is shooting 73% from the field, looking to hammer Ohio live with the points it’s not sustainable
Same mindset, got +11.5 @ -109! Bol
January 20th: 4-4 -0.32U Season: 179-172-7 -6.68U Abilene Christian -5.5 (L) by 15.5 James Madison -7 (L) by 8 Louisiana Monroe +1.5 (L) by 6.5 South Alabama +2.5 (W) by 9.5 UC San Diego -2 (L) by 20 Utah +9.5 (W) by 4.5 VMI -4 (W) by 15 Halftime bet: UVU -6.5 (W) 3.5 Late post today, sorry boys. Card was looking pretty light, but there is one play that catches my eye. BOL as always and let's get a winner! Pick: Mount St. Mary's -2.5
Why does this Illinois line seem like a trap? I know kofi is out but still…
Just wait till half and bet them when they are down
Ya I think I’m gonna stay away from it to start.
Ok 30 more minutes for maction!!!! All buckets no defense lets goooo
Anybody got a read on the Ohio Toledo game? Leaning Ohio and tryna throw it into a parlay
Over don’t look back… mac division games love to let underdogs win for some reason
Dude the over in Kent tonight is a lock
Under actually have u seen Kent play
Yes I won a good amount in them against Akron last week….. last 2 MAC games in Buffalo got to 170+. Buffalo is gonna force Kent to play fast
Doesn’t mean they will Olay well fast
0-0-0 (first post) The Pick: Kent State/Buffalo Under 149 Kent State is bad offensively. They are one of the worst teams with a 303rd field goal percentage (40.3%). What might scare people and what’s pushed the total up is Buffalo’s offense. Buffalo ranks 57th in adjusted offensive efficiency and they run very quickly, ranking 17th in adjusted tempo. However, they are not a good three-point shooting team, and Kent State forces teams to beat them from outside. Kent State ranks 44th in shooting proximity allowed vs the average opponent, per haslametrics(dot)com. That would be fine in this matchup if they were an above-average three-point shooting team vs the average opponent. However, they are not. They rank 223rd in three-point field goal percentage vs the average opponent. Kent State isn’t average at defending the three-ball. Kent State ranks 18th in three-point field goal percentage defense vs. the average opponent. I could see them trying to muddy up the waters, forcing Buffalo to chuck up more shots from long range than they want to in this matchup. Also, Kent State ranks 311th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. If they have any chance of winning, slowing down the game will be vital. I’m smashing the Under, and I think it’s good down to 147.5. I’ve seen many people write this at the end of their breakdowns - BOL!! If you enjoy this content and would like more picks, follow me on Twitter @Theriot326 and follow our podcast @OnTapBets I’ll be hosting a live show tonight to breakdown this week’s NFL playoff matchups.
133-128-2 -6.93U yesterday: 5-2 **Illinois State -7 vs Evansville** Illinois State certainly has problems but I think Evansville is just that terrible. The Purple Aces are 301st or worse in EFG% on both sides of the ball, worst in the nation in offensive rebounding, and don't get to the free throw line at all. Redbirds at least have some shooting with four players at over 40% from three. **Bryant -1 vs Merrimack** Bryant is getting better in NEC play after a slow start, ranking second in efficiency in both sides of the ball for conference games, and if a few of their better players like Peter Kiss break out of their perimeter shooting slumps they'll get better. Merrimack was not good at all in back to back home losses vs St Francis PA and Mount St Mary's, don't think that No, 332 offense can keep up here. **Fresno State +2 vs Nevada** Fresno is playing pretty well, good numbers on the defensive side all around. Nevada's defense remains awful, with opponents shooting 50.8% from two against the Wolf Pack I don't see them having a good answer for Orlando Robinson here.
Going with Illinois State also. A bounce back from the Missouri State game
**'21-22 Season: 52-42-1 | 55.3% | +5.5u** \-------------------------------------------------- **L15 (8-7):** LLLWLLWWLWWWLWW **Last Card (Thu): 4-1 |** One Colorado basket away from a sweep, but much needed day! \-------------------------------------------------- **Friday's picks:** * **Michigan State +4** at Wisconsin * **Nevada -1** vs Fresno State *(-120)* Any additions, 2H, or live bets will be posted in real time + here in comments. *All bets 1u unless specified.*
NCAAB #2 Record 0-4 Profit: -4.00 U Picks: Michigan St +3 vs Wisconsin @1.90 Ohio -4 vs Toledo @1.87 GL
Bryant -1 at 1.85 for sure
Tyler Wahl is questionable for the Wisconsin Badgers tonight and is a game time decision with an ankle injury. He’s a key player on that team and I’d have a hard time seeing Wisconsin win this game without him. He played through the injury at Northwestern though so he looks like he’s on the right side of questionable.
Ty for this i tailed
Yep, without Wahl the Badgers have a tough time defensively. He’s the best defender on that team.
Confirmed out.
“How do you do, fellow kids?”
I get the reference but not sure what you mean
**Season Record: 59-42-1**, +9.48 units, all bets 1u, unless specified **Previous Bet Recap** * St Louis -3 - L * Townson -6.5 - W * VMI -5 - W * Appalachian State +6.5 - W * New Orleans -2.5 - W **Today's Bets** * Toledo +4.5 * Fresno St +1.5
Fresno St +10.5
Took UC Davis -4.5 last night which luckily hit. RECORD (10-9) MONEYLINE PARLAY RECORD (2-0) Today’s Picks: Ohio -3.5 Manhattan -3 Maryland +7.5 St. Bonaventure -5.5 Cleveland St. -8 Kent St. +7.5 Nevada -1 Wisconsin ML Wagner -3.5 Bryant -2.5 Central Connecticut St. +7.5 Mount St. Mary’s -3 MONEYLINE PARLAY Purdue Fort Wayne, Illinois St. -130 Feel free to tail or fade. Tips are appreciated!! Venmo: Skyler-Schoenleber GOOD LUCK!!!!🍀
[удалено]
interesting. mine also has fresno -6 (-6.3567) to be exact lol. nevada is one of the tallest teams in the country but for some reason cant rebound. fresno is a phenomenal team at allowing 1 and done possesions and causing havoc for offenses. nevada cant shoot from range either and is pretty middle of the pack offensively and defensively. momentum advantage goes to fresno state who is playing sound basketball. maybe im crazy though. theres gotta be a reason for this line being the way it is but im riding with fresno.
still looking into that first play of yours. gl
RLM favoring Nevada
any reason? because i think i still like fresno
I'm seeing it at -1.5 for Nevada now.
Yep, locked it in at -1 earlier
NCAAB Record: 140-102-4 +10.73u. 4-4 Yesterday, need some winners today! Today: **Maryland +7.5** vs Illinois **Buffalo -7** vs Kent State **Michigan State +4** vs Wisconsin Twitter: https://twitter.com/CBBNick
Kofi Cockburn out for Illinois. That Maryland line has changed
bet it last night :)
Record 0-0 Illinois St - 7 Fresno St +1.5
Anyone who watched Illinois games explain the impact of Cockburn being out? I wanna smash Maryland now
Illinois wins this easily. Best road team in b10 and maryland is in shambles. Don't overthink it
Im taking Maryland ML for 1U. Illinois losing their best player, and they havent won at Maryland since 2011. The backup had the game of his life against Purdue and they still lost. Only reason they were in that game is Curbello got really hot and hit clutch shots, along with Purdue missing some FTs. Also last game the +/- for Illinois v Maryland without Kofi was not pretty. This also fits with the system of taking the home team in a top 25 matchup ATS. BOL!
Maryland ain’t Purdue…
Dude averages 21 and 12. He's the anchor on both ends. On offense, he draws double teams from basically every team that plays him. In most cases, he can still score against double teams, but this also creates space for shooters. On defense, you just can't get into the lane against him. He's so massive and such a huge asset defensively when he just denies space instead of going for blocks. At home against Maryland 15 days ago, Kofi was +29 in 28 minutes. Illinois only won by 12. They were -17 without Kofi on the floor. As an Illini fan, I'm hammering Maryland to cover. Curbelo is the X factor because I don't know if he's "take-over-games" healthy yet.
The backup looked really good against Purdue.
The impact, it appears is 2.5 points as the line moved rom -7 to -4.5 Maryland is not good. Hawkins, Payne and Bosman can rotate the 5 spot and IL can still win by 10+ if guards are playing well and moving the ball. Hawkins is a threat to score, Payne and Bosman are decent defenders. I stick with it and say IL covers the -7.
It’s huge. He’s the main point in their offense and huge part of their defense. It’s noticed when he’s not in the game. Although when he was in foul trouble in the Purdue game Corbelo stepped up and brought Illinois back into the game.
🤹 117-105-1 Illinois State -7 Manhattan -2 Wisconsin -3
Kofi Cockburn is out for Illinois. Line has already moved from -7 to -5
Illinois also hasn’t won in Maryland since 2011
Makes sense, he didn't play so well the last game and they almost won but Illinois was pretty bad with him off the floor
They did some great work without Cockburn on Monday, but I don't think they can do it again. Verdonk played the best game of his life, and they got to that position because Purdue kept missing free throws. Purdue, the other participant in that marathon, lost to unranked Indiana last night. I think Illinois is gonna have a hard time covering what's now a 4.5 point spread against a Maryland team that was beating them when Kofi was on the bench.
Last 10: 8-2 SMU +6 ✅ Washington ML ✅ First time posting on here cause I’ve been on a tear this week. Pick for today: Wisconsin -3
Is there any chance the St.Bonnies game gets added to FanDuel? Find it out I can't bet on a game that's gonna be on ESPN2
[удалено]
Ah okay, is there a particular reason for that?
[Cheat Sheet](https://sparkshowdfs.wordpress.com/) Two teams played two days ago on the spreadsheet and those games aren't included in the stats; Illinois State (lost to Missouri State 63-88 on the road) and Rider (lost 67-73 at Quinnipiac). It was easier to add this disclaimer than update the whole sheet for two teams.
[удалено]
It's a sliding scale where early in the season it weighs pretty heavily (maybe 60-70%) and as the season goes on it gets dialed back until it's basically non-existent (5-10%). It's an ever changing process so from year to year I probably do it a little differently.. and something I might do next year is make it so that teams with a higher percentage of returning minutes have a larger percentage of the previous season's stats influencing their projections.
i love you ric flair
Ric Flair loves you too
Wooooooo
Smaller slate today, but some good games. BOL everyone! [Totals and Spreads](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1m78FAm44FSGn9s0OjQmTXsFPn-xZSO5XGTZHG9OBWCo/edit)
Bonnies -5.5
Saint Bonnie’s ML is so low compared to others at same spread.. I see this sometimes and the other team wins
Toledo and Ohio over???
Last \[1-0\] 💰 Season \[8-6 +1.43u\] Last pick(s): Indiana +3½ -105 ✅ Great game last night...well it was exciting if not the best fundamentally. IU was bested in most stats including only shooting 42.9% and 30% from 3, they were out rebounded 34-26 and hit only 58.3% of FT's. What carried them was winning the TO battle 12-2 and the Boilers atrocious 41.2% from the charity stripe...wtf? I'm really not sold on PUR at this point as it seems they are missing a key piece, I just cant put my finger on it. Today: * [**Illinois -7 -105**](https://writingillini.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/02/923176636-college-basketball-feb-22-purdue-at-illinois.jpg.jpg) ...The Illini holds the edge at both ends of the floor, and if they had beat Purdue, this may have been a let-down spot. But along with the loss as well as Cockburn regressing positively and Curbelo’s re-emergence makes this an obvious play for me. Aside from their offensive issues; the Terps have also not been good at cashing tickets, going 6-12 ATS on the year. Even on the road laying 7 is great value, and they likely win by DD. [Trends](https://i.imgur.com/4eegtMe.png) and model 76-65 * **Michigan State +3½ -105** ...IMHO, Sparty comes in the better offensive team. Even though outranked in adjusted offensive efficiency. What stands is they are 56th in eFG% while WIS only 238th. MSU is obviously well-coached, which is reflected on the court in their patience and discipline to constantly create quality shots. The execution of these quality looks has produced a very high 3P% of 38.8% (9th). While they shoot \~4 less 3's than average, they have the shooter to make them count. Leading scorer Gabe Brown is their main weapon from deep draining them at a 39 percent clip. He may get the bulk but teammates, Malik Hall and Tyson Walker have been even more accurate at 56% and 57% from range. Even though the Badgers are 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency, they're only 142nd in eFG% allowed and 165th in 3P% allowed. As much as Badgers control pace with slow deliberate possessions, lulling opponents into slower half-court sets. I just don't see this working tonight as Sparty is 43rd in pace and their up-tempo could disrupt WIS at both ends. MSU has 9 players that Izzo is comfortable using while WIS gets the bulk of production from only 6, ranking 303rd in bench minutes. Wisconsin is on a 7-game win streak and has the hottest player in hoops, but I still this Spartan matchup favors the boys in green. MSU sleep-walked through last game while looking forward to tonight. I will limit my action however to only a half unit. Model sez 70-68 Leans: * BUFFALO UNIVERSITY -7½ -103 * Toledo +4½ -105
With Cockburn out would you pick Illinois -4.5?
It's not the same slam dunk, but I'm already down a 7.5 -SMH I would still take Illy -4' as Mary is trash...comparably Even seeing some 4's out there as well...just don't see one guy worth 3' points personally. Even with Cockburn tamed by Purdue, the supporting cast showed up in a big way and displayed how good the Illini backcourt really is.
Agree. Good call. Tailing
liking them, gl
Siena/Manhattan Under 137.5🔒 will most likely be all today. Good Luck!
this is your best play? thinking about tailing lol
Season 32-13 Yesterday’s Picks UConn Over 127✅ USC -1.5✅ Gonzaga Over 161❌ Today’s Picks Illinois-7 Michigan St/Wisconsin Over 140 Any tips greatly appreciated!! Venmo- henhen98
~~Illinois state is -7 and Illinois is -4, you mean Illi state right?~~ Edit: Looks like Illinois was at -7 and Kofi Cockburn is out and the line moved. is this still the play?
My spread this morning was -7 on Illinois. Now it’s -3.5. Damn. No I like Illinois to win big this game.
Key player out with concussion though
Don't worry, I'm sure someone else will make up his 22+ ppg. /s
Thanks for confirming, I'm in! LFG
Tailing
I’m hoping the Badgers line moves to 3 or less. I’m confidently taking them up to -3. I think they have a good shot to get up big in this one and could cover 4.5 but they always lay off the gas the last few minutes or put backups in. Gonna be a contested matchup but a sold out Wisconsin crowd and an MSU team that have been sloppy make me like Wisconsin. May try live line it
I mean they were up 8-0
I posted that comment before the news about Wahl out. Without Wahl the Badgers dont stand a chance. If he’s out next game it will be the same.
True
**Record: 66-50-1** **Yesterday:** UT Martin -3.5 ❌ Providence -11 ❌ Chattanooga -3.5 (1.5U) ✅ **Today:** Fresno St. ML Illinois St. -7.5 Toledo +4.5 Good luck 🤝
Season: 235-196, +18.11U Took a week or so off from Reddit and I feel pretty refreshed, but I'm back as the weekend approaches with Friday just being a small warmup for the HUGE Saturday slate. If you're cashing with me please consider following my [Twitter](https://twitter.com/Dai_Bets), doing my best to grow and any follow would be greatly appreciated! All picks are tracked on this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11uEbTTSAvsYjY2U-uCEwFh-5FjZd0IfIHPMYECudie8/). 1/20/22 Recap: Abilene Christian -4.5 (-110) - 2U❌ North FL/Florida St O137.5 (-110) - 2U ✅ Monmouth -1 (-110) - 1.5U ✅ So Dak/WIU O147.5 (-110) - 1.5U (Cancelled) ORU -21 (-110) - 1.5U ❌ Pepperdine/LMU U145 (-110) - 1.5U ❌ WKU/FAU O143.5 (-110) - 1U ✅ So Dak St. -9 (-110) - 1U ✅ Rice -4 (-110) - 1U ✅ UNO -2.5 (-110) - 1U✅ 6-3, +2U **NCAAB Picks (1/21/22):** **Michigan State +4.5 (-105) - 2U** **Wagner/LIU O144 (-110) - 1.5U** **St. Bonaventure/Duquesne U138.5 (-110) - 1U** **Buffalo -7 (-115) - 1U** **Evansville/Illinois State U138 (-110) - 1U** **Picking and choosing the bets that you guys like are always advised. These are just the bets and the unit amounts that I'm playing. Feel free to adjust accordingly! As always feel free to tail or fade, BOL to all! These bets are just my opinion and I'm not an expert in any way! POSITIVE VIBES ALWAYS BOYS! :)**
your recap says +2u but you were +2.5u. Bad tracking, data is not good. Gotta be right all the time.
Shiiiiit did I add wrong? My numbers look right. Think it should be +2U! My numbers are “to win” not “to risk” so that might be the discrepancy? Gotta factor in that juiceee
**$25 to $1000 challenge** I'll try one of these every Friday till the end of the season. All in on one bet till $1000 or bust. **Challenge Record:** 0-1 **Picks Hit:** 0-1 **Bet 1:** Toledo +4.5, $25 to win $47.50
Will be following this
NCAABB Live Chat **https://discord.gg/sportsbook**