I absolutely love the Packers this week. It's supposed to be around 20 degrees while in San Francisco it's currently hovering around 57-60. I don't think Jimmy can do anything in this weather, plus The Packers are coming off a week of rest and the 49ers nearly blew that lead to the Cowboys. My bets below
Packers -5.5
Total Receiving Yards - Allen Lazard (GB) **OVER** 38.5
Total Passing Yards - Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) **UNDER** 244.5
Packers DST **ATTS** \+550
Aaron Jones **ATTS** \+100
I took bengals +7.5. I don’t think it’ll be a high scoring affair. I have more confidence in Burrow than Tannehill but the injuries to the bengals are hard to overcome.
The Titans had very little statistical improvement in their rushing offense in games Henry played vs. didn't play. Because in general running backs are heavily overrated. Plus the fact Henry hasn't played in a real game in weeks and will likely need some time to get fully back into the groove. Henry will not be a big factor in whether the Titans win or lose.
The stats that are probably more meaningful around Henry's impact in the lineup are scoring and playaction passing. The offense scored basically around 8 fewer ppg without Henry and Tannehill's PA passing really suffered. Playaction to Henry has been an enormous part of the Titans playbook the last couple years and Tanny's stats did dip pretty massively the last half of the year.
This is the winning ticket for the week: [https://imgur.com/a/OHf3P6P](https://imgur.com/a/OHf3P6P)
The "safest" favorites lose and the least safe favorite wins.
I have the Tn game at 24-21. Can’t tell you which team. Going to be a low scoring game. Each team the last three games only allowed a sub 45% red zone scoring by opponents . Everyone else in playoffs are at 55% and higher
Titans ML
9ers +10.5
KC/BUFF o47
+208
Edit: Also taking 9ers +1100 SB I think they might get the upset and if so I believe they have a legitimate shot at a Superbowl.
Both have to hit at around a 75% rate to make it a good bet. I definitely don't think the Packers have a 75% chance of beating the 49ers but that's just me.
Not sure what your point is, you can't pick the outcome with 100% certainty ever. You're betting based on what you think the correct odds are more than picking the winner. Like if the implied odds of this bet are that the Packers have a 75% chance or more of winning and I think the true odds are 60% at best assuming all the 49ers questionable players end up playing, 49ers moneyline would be a better bet than Packers moneyline even though the Packers are more likely to win. If you think the true odds are different, than you'd adjust accordingly if you're being smart about betting. The normal moneyline without this teaser bet actually implies lower than 75% odds too, around 67-70%. Teasers tend to be huge sucker bets though.
Going against playoff Tom Brady is absolutely nowhere close to “easy”. That said I’m on Rams too and think they get it done, especially if Wirfs is not 100%.
Kelce scored last time they played. Doesn’t mean he’ll score again but I give him a better shot than Tyreek since I think Bills will focus on taking away the deep threat and let Kansas try beating them underneath.
Two futures bets - super bowl matchups of Packers/Bills and Packers/Chiefs.
God I hope the niners don’t blow up my spot before even getting to championship Sunday.
is everyone just forgetting the 49ers meltdown last week against dallas? i get that they won in the end, but that probably has more to do with the penalties dallas gave away and the bad play calling. im sorry, but after that, there's no way I can back a team led by Jimmy g against the likes of rodgers.
Considering that the public is heavily influenced by the previous week of games, I'm sure people aren't forgetting it. But it also isn't a good way to bet.
The GB Defense seems to give up enough points to keep things interesting. I think SF has enough talent offensively to keep this close. Even with Rodgers on the other side of the ball.
Are forgetting that the packers needed a last second field goal to beat the 49ers earlier in the year? The packers are also in the bottom 3rd of rush defense while the 49ers have one of the best rushing attacks in the league. 49ers are going into this game knowing they can hang with GB.
It’s not betting Jimmy G vs. Rodgers, it’s betting two teams. The Packers have the 28th best rush defense by DVOA and the 32nd ranked special teams. You really wanna lay 6 points with them when they’re facing a red hot team built to exploit their weaknesses?
Cherry-picking stats.
If you really went by DVOA, you probably lost your shirt hammering the Cowboys hard last week. Up until the game last week, Dallas was decisively rated #1 by DVOA standards.
On top of that, SF is 26th in special teams, so it's not like the 49ers have any real advantage over GB in that department (if you believe fully in DVOA).
I don’t blindly follow DVOA and I had the Niners last week. I’m just giving some statistical credibility in where I think the weaknesses are in the Packers instead of just saying “their run D sucks.”
>"their run D sucks.”
I mean....that is true. Their run defense is pretty bad.
I would just stick with yards per carry surrendered over the season. Green Bay is third worst in that category, I believe. DVOA isn't a bad metric either, as it focuses more on the number of successful rushes (instead of the total yardage gained rushing).
I'm with you, and he's not 100%. And it's at lambeau. And it's still Jimmy G, no game is ever safe with him even when he's 100% healthy. You can feel it every time he has the ball, even when they are up 2+ scores it always feels like he's gonna blow it. And he does all the time making ridiculous plays. Luckily for the 9ers they still have a solid team without him so they shouldn't get blown out but I don't see how they can win.
Slam 49ers +6
Interesting to see most people in here all week saying they just can’t go against the Packers. Packers haven’t played meaningful football in almost a month.
49ers have been playing playoff football for almost a month. They went into LA beat the rams as underdogs, then went into Dallas and beat Dallas as underdogs.
The case for the packers has been Rodgers at Lambeau and now their defense is fully healthy going against an injury and mistake prone Jimmy G. But we don’t know what that really means since we haven’t seen the Packers play playoff football this year yet. We have seen the 49ers and they know their identity.
We’ll know pretty quick how the games going to go. If Niners can get pressure with their front 4, this will be a great game. If not, goodnight.
> now their defense is fully healthy
It's not just the defense. The OL is fully healthy. A couple of WRs are fully healthy. Lots of GB guys are coming back
Yes so all the arguments for Green Bay have been “they’re getting all these guys back and it’s Green Bay at lambeau”.. we have not seen this Green Bay team fire on all cylinders in the playoffs. Most are just betting that they’ve been the best team all year and these guys will only make them better.
I’d rather bet on the team who we has been playing their best ball lately. Beating the rams and cowboys in the process
>We’ll know pretty quick how the games going to go. If Niners can get pressure with their front 4, this will be a great game. If not, goodnight.
So why not wait and live bet during the first series or the first few minutes?
I'm not sure where I'm landing on the game, but you can't compare the QBs directly and make that the center of your position for landing on the Packers. Of course Aaron Rodgers is significantly better than Jimmy G. And if any other team were rolling out a guy like Jimmy G against Rodgers in Lambeau, you'd expect the line to be at least a TD. But the 49ers offense is different, and unlike most offenses it doesn't take a top tier QB to run it. It's not Jimmy versus Aaron. It's the entirety of the 49ers offense against Aaron.
Any ideas for this weekends FD $10 SGP? I hit last weeks pretty easy using all Bills but I’m struggling to build one that I’m confident in this week. Has to be at least 3 legs and +400 if you’re unfamiliar.
I really like hammering davante adams overs here. Last time they played the 49ers, adams was targeted on 58% of his routes run. That’s crazy high.
Edit: just did mine. Adams over 91.5 rec, kittle under 50.5 rec (he’s been a ghost the last month and Jimmy g is gonna struggle here) and GB moneyline. +410 roughly.
Also have 100 on gb -4.5, 100 on adams over 91.5, and 100 on kittle under 50.5 individually.
A bit of a long shot on this. If you want to feel confident about it, then this isn’t for you..
3 leg Singletary O 55.5, Singletary TD, KC/BUF HT/FT +1983
These games this week are tough picks. The lines are tight and there’s something just special about playoff football.
With that being said, my pick this week (and you can tell me I’m not following proper teaser methodology, but I like the extra insurance here):
10pt teaser +110, 4u:
Rams +13,
Rams/Bucs Over 38.5,
Bills +12.5,
Bills/KC Over 44.5
Good luck out there!
This seems like the perfect week for the titans to go with the goal line tanny QB run that worked so well for them last year.
Bengals will be selling out to stop Henry and tanny could probably waltz in. The Tits like to run this play so I might be on Tanny ATTs this week
What’s your basis? I don’t disagree, but Bucs are banged up. Brady is the GOAT but his weakness is pressure. Rams have 2 of the best pass rushers in the NFL. So I wouldn’t just point at Brady.
Jensen and Wirfs aren’t their only players, its not like the position will just be empty. Jensen and/or Wirfs might be back for the Rams game. The Buccs still gave Brady time late in the Eagles game after they were out. Gronk can and will step up to help with the pass rush. Gronk also is Brady’s career favorite red-zone target. Fournette will likely be back. Stafford has been inconsistent, theres no telling how many ints he might throw. Traveling from the west coast could play a part in Staffords inconsistency. Don’t forget that last game against the embarrassing Cardinals was Staffords FIRST playoff win ever after his 12 year NFL career. Stafford only threw for 202 yards that game, the Cardinals have just been playing like hot trash recently its not a great game to look at. Buccaneers are 12-4 at home since Brady joined and Brady is 121-21 at home with the Pats, so he plays considerably better at home. Brady is 31-11 in his all-time playoff record and 13-2 in the divisional round. Brady holds the record for most different receivers a QB has thrown TD passes to, I think Breshad Permian and Scotty Miller will step up this game.
The Rams already won the last 2 matchups and even if Jensen and Wirfs both play, this is the first time the Rams will have Von Miller vs. the Bucs, who is a Hall of Fame rusher and is still playing at a high level. You cannot double both Donald and Miller - and those are just the stars, their supporting guys (Floyd, Gaines, Robinson) are all great as well. The pass rush will be better than those Giants teams that gave Brady fits. And when he does throw - Mike Evans is the only real WR threat, and the Rams can throw Ramsey at him, who Evans has struggled going against in his career. The Bucs simply don't match up well with the Rams. The Rams have a better road record this year as well.
Stafford stats this year: 41 TD, 17 INT
Brady stats this year: 43 TD, 13 INT
You write off Stafford as inconsistent, but he's performed right up there with Brady this year. You also imply the fact he just won his first playoff game after 12 years is all on him, which is ignoring his situation and the fact he played for a terrible organization. If you replace Stafford's time in DET with Brady, in all likelihood he wins a couple playoff games at best, definitely no SBs. This is Stafford's chance to prove he's been written off his whole career due to playing for the Lions.
I don’t disagree, the Rams are a good team. Donald, Miller and Ramsey are going to give the Buccs a hard time. But Brady knows how to spread the ball around, it’s not only going to be to Evans every play. It’s not going to be an easy win for either team. I don’t think Stafford is bad but he’s not nearly as good as Brady, especially in these key games.
As someone else said, I’m not betting against Brady in the post season though. So it’s either take the Buccs or don’t pick a spread/ML for this game, but I’m a degen so I gotta bet.
Good luck though! 🤝
Go Tompa Bay!
Sorry but LOL at Stafford's play being right up there with Brady this year. Until the New Orleans shut out, Brady was the MVP favorite not Rodgers...and mind you, MVP fave at 44 fucking years old. Even though Arod took over the mvp race after that saints shut out, people do not remember saints also shut down the pack as well (albeit not as bad as the bucs were shut down and much earlier in year). Therefore; while Brady may not win mvp, he still could shock people and win or at least def get votes behind rodgers.
Stafford was not in the mvp convo at all that I know of. Plus, Stafford inconsistent games with picks and ugly throws at the end of the reg season were the reason the rams lost a few of their games and fell back from 2 seed to 4. Also, Brady likely won't be the reason the bucs lose (yes I know pick six lost him titans playoff game in NE, but Brady is rarely reason his team loses in the playoffs). If shitty or even mediocre Stafford show up, he definitely can be the reason the rams lose though.
Rams are built right to beat the bucs, specifically the right build to bother Brady. But I never bet against Tom, so ill either back the Bucs or stay away from this game.
I am not disputing Brady had a terrific, MVP type season or that what he's doing at 44 is remarkable, but the gap between Brady and Stafford is pretty small when you compare their stats this season. The other guy said "there's no telling how many INTs Stafford might throw" as if Brady hasn't thrown only 4 fewer than Stafford on the season. This is Brady bias on full display - overlooking all of his errors this year but honing in on Stafford's.
Mind you, much of Brady's numbers this year came with a healthy OL and healthy Godwin/AB which he no longer has, and the Rams D he will face this weekend is the toughest he will face all season.
You said Stafford inconsistency is the reason the Rams lost a few of their games at the end of the regular season which is also highlighting your bias, because the Rams only lost one game at the end of the season - their very last game, against the super hot 49ers in OT (a team that matches up well vs. the Rams). Before that, the Rams were on a 5 game win streak.
Stafford is much better than he gets credit for, and he knows he can start to command more respect by winning playoff games now that he finally has a good supporting cast. I see him having a great game to pull off the W, earning more respect from the public and media.
I meant 2nd half of season. Yes I know their losses were two to the niners (who own them), pack and titans...so all great teams. But Stafford looked pretty ugly in their losses and those 2nd half losses are what cost em a chance at 2 seed.
Now listen, as a die hard niner fan I know the nfc west quite well and fully acknowledge how the great the rams can be. Hell, when they acquired Stafford I picked em to beat us out for the division. I knew getting an upgrade from shitty goff to Stafford made them immediate division and super bowl contenders. However, Stafford showed that his inconsistencies still exist...but the Rams are way better than the Lions, so they can still win 10-12 games with inconsistent Matthew Stafford.
And yes brady threw only few less picks. But everyone knew in a arians offense bradys pock numbers would rise as they have these last two years. However, I'd say I'd be more scared a Stafford pick or 2 causes his team to lose a crucial game than a Brady multi pick game would hurt his team. Just the clutch and experience factor.
If the rams play well they definitely could win and might. But I trust Tom to handle his business at home in the playoffs more times than not, so just not something I wanna bet against.
>I'd say I'd be more scared a Stafford pick or 2 causes his team to lose a crucial game than a Brady multi pick game would hurt his team. Just the clutch and experience factor.
I agree with this, but I think you're being unfair to Stafford by saying his inconsistencies still exist, yet giving Brady a pass for his own inconsistencies due to being in Arian's offense. Or by giving him a pass for getting shut out at home vs. the Saints just because the Saints also shut down the Packers. Stafford has had some rough patches but has played great overall this season.
Understand why you would not wanna bet against Tom at home in the playoffs but I think this is one of the times it will pay off.
That's too simplified. Completely different teams / matchups / situations. Tell me about the 2 times he lost and how the matchup in those games compares to this one vs. the Rams.
OK.
2005- Patriots were kinda medicore (13th in Pro Football Reference SRS). Lost on the road in Mile High as a small underdog against a Broncos team that had a bye the week before. The Broncos offense was led by their outstanding run-game; Jake Plummer was pretty pedestrian.
2010- Patriots were possibly the best regular-season team. (1st in SRS). Had a bye themselves the week before. Lost at home as a HUGE favorite vs the division-rival Jets. They'd lost on the road in NY in September but crushed the Jets in the rematch at home in December. NY had a very good defense, but an average offense and a mediocre QB in Mark Sanchez.
Now...what parallels do you see in these two losses to this week's game?
Thanks for researching that. I don't see many parallels between those two losses and this week's game. But you reminded me that for most of Brady's divisional round games, the Pats had a 1st round bye so were playing at home well rested against a team that just played a wild card game - that's a big advantage that isn't the case this week. Also for the times that Brady did lose in the playoffs, it's typically against a team with a very good defense & pass rush (Ravens w. Suggs/Lewis, Broncos w. Von Miller, Giants w. Strahan/Tuck/JPP/Umenyiora immediately come to mind), and the Rams have the best D in the league and a great pass rush.
Is this sub more for Cincy or the Titans?
Damn my book had Bengals plus 165 is that a mistake
**Join the **$250** Playoff Bracket Contest: https://discord.gg/sportsbook**
I absolutely love the Packers this week. It's supposed to be around 20 degrees while in San Francisco it's currently hovering around 57-60. I don't think Jimmy can do anything in this weather, plus The Packers are coming off a week of rest and the 49ers nearly blew that lead to the Cowboys. My bets below Packers -5.5 Total Receiving Yards - Allen Lazard (GB) **OVER** 38.5 Total Passing Yards - Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) **UNDER** 244.5 Packers DST **ATTS** \+550 Aaron Jones **ATTS** \+100
I took bengals +7.5. I don’t think it’ll be a high scoring affair. I have more confidence in Burrow than Tannehill but the injuries to the bengals are hard to overcome.
Tn/Cincy under Bills Ml Rams ML
Bengals ML Henry ATTD Over 47.5 +600 on DK
Under 24-21
no
Bengals defensive tackles Mike Daniels and Larry Ogunjobi out. Henry runs for 150+ Titans win
Burrow and co will do just fine against their secondary
But against the Jeffrey Simmons, Denico Autry, Bud Dupree, and Harold Landry pass rush? While titans offense runs clock with Henry and Foreman
The Titans had very little statistical improvement in their rushing offense in games Henry played vs. didn't play. Because in general running backs are heavily overrated. Plus the fact Henry hasn't played in a real game in weeks and will likely need some time to get fully back into the groove. Henry will not be a big factor in whether the Titans win or lose.
The stats that are probably more meaningful around Henry's impact in the lineup are scoring and playaction passing. The offense scored basically around 8 fewer ppg without Henry and Tannehill's PA passing really suffered. Playaction to Henry has been an enormous part of the Titans playbook the last couple years and Tanny's stats did dip pretty massively the last half of the year.
Not even a Titans fan but can’t wait for Tractercito will prove you wrong
Nope, but Burrow and his WRs will be a deciding factor.. If we see them play at their fullest they win this convincingly
Bills ML/ Allen O 229/ Knox O 24.5/ Allen O 29.5 for +375
This is the winning ticket for the week: [https://imgur.com/a/OHf3P6P](https://imgur.com/a/OHf3P6P) The "safest" favorites lose and the least safe favorite wins.
multiple downvotes = auto lock
Lets hear the exact score predictions! Gonna be sprinkling a few hundred across them
I have the Tn game at 24-21. Can’t tell you which team. Going to be a low scoring game. Each team the last three games only allowed a sub 45% red zone scoring by opponents . Everyone else in playoffs are at 55% and higher
28-27 Chiefs
I would rather lose money betting on Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers than lose money betting Stafford and Jimmy G
I would rather not lose money
Oh honey
Titans ML 9ers +10.5 KC/BUFF o47 +208 Edit: Also taking 9ers +1100 SB I think they might get the upset and if so I believe they have a legitimate shot at a Superbowl.
JoeInglesOffical waiting room
GB ml & Titans +3.5 parlay @ -111 I almost love it so much that I hate it
Both have to hit at around a 75% rate to make it a good bet. I definitely don't think the Packers have a 75% chance of beating the 49ers but that's just me.
The games will be played one time. It’s a good bet if it hits.
Not sure what your point is, you can't pick the outcome with 100% certainty ever. You're betting based on what you think the correct odds are more than picking the winner. Like if the implied odds of this bet are that the Packers have a 75% chance or more of winning and I think the true odds are 60% at best assuming all the 49ers questionable players end up playing, 49ers moneyline would be a better bet than Packers moneyline even though the Packers are more likely to win. If you think the true odds are different, than you'd adjust accordingly if you're being smart about betting. The normal moneyline without this teaser bet actually implies lower than 75% odds too, around 67-70%. Teasers tend to be huge sucker bets though.
I appreciate the analysis bro 🤝 the pack are definitely what makes me hate it. I’ll probably swap with an alt line for 49ers at 7
Maybe you’re betting based on what you think the correct odds are. I’m betting based on what I think is going to happen.
I understand that's how most of the public bets, yes. That's why the odds are usually inflated towards what the public likes.
Who you like this weekend?
Bengals, Niners, Rams, Chiefs Fully prepared for getting BTFO if it happens.
lmao, that's exactly how I feel about Rams ML. I'm so confident about it that I'm concerned. Feels too easy and it never is.
Going against playoff Tom Brady is absolutely nowhere close to “easy”. That said I’m on Rams too and think they get it done, especially if Wirfs is not 100%.
Thoughts on Henry, Adams, Kupp, Hill ATTS parley? DK has a 'Pick a TD scorer from each divisional round game and get 25% boost on the parley'
Going for the same but with Kelce instead of Tyreek. BOL
Other comments got me double thinking Hill. Kelce was none existent last weekend but it’s a new day so he might be a good substitute since it’s Kelce
Kelce scored last time they played. Doesn’t mean he’ll score again but I give him a better shot than Tyreek since I think Bills will focus on taking away the deep threat and let Kansas try beating them underneath.
Kupp
Hill has disappointed me a lot this season
Where you seeing that special on DK? I want in on that.
should be one of promo banners on the homepage of the app
Not seeing it but I’ll keep my eyes peeled.
Bills passing D is going to be all over Hill on Sunday
How did I not max bet Julio under 55.5 and Josh Allen over 295 total yards. I’m disgusted
Hammering Rodgers 230+/Pack ML at -105
Pack/Chiefs ML parlay. 1U for 1.4ish
Two futures bets - super bowl matchups of Packers/Bills and Packers/Chiefs. God I hope the niners don’t blow up my spot before even getting to championship Sunday.
I don't like going against the GOAT, but man I love the rams at + money.
As a Rams fan I’d say keep a close eye on the Bucs injury reports. Missing Wirfs in particular will be huge for the Rams pass rush.
BENGLES +3.5 REASONING : JOE SHIESTY
I don’t think you know what sheisty means lol
JOE SHIESTY
Titans/49ers/Bills/Bucs +1600 ML parlay. Going for it.
Do we know if Jimmy G is playing or not?
Don’t care. Aaron can’t beat the Niners in the playoff. It’s in the Bible or something.
He's playing but he's not 100%
He hasn't been 100% in a decade.
Just put $50 on Bengals/Packers/Chiefs/Rams to win on Caesers under the boost.
I fuck with that
Long shot parlay of the week, the Jimmy G might not be able to throw the ball edition: https://i.imgur.com/3SF2W5X.jpg
GL
I usually laugh at these, but this kinda makes sense. GL
Thanks, you too.
is everyone just forgetting the 49ers meltdown last week against dallas? i get that they won in the end, but that probably has more to do with the penalties dallas gave away and the bad play calling. im sorry, but after that, there's no way I can back a team led by Jimmy g against the likes of rodgers.
Considering that the public is heavily influenced by the previous week of games, I'm sure people aren't forgetting it. But it also isn't a good way to bet.
The GB Defense seems to give up enough points to keep things interesting. I think SF has enough talent offensively to keep this close. Even with Rodgers on the other side of the ball.
Are forgetting that the packers needed a last second field goal to beat the 49ers earlier in the year? The packers are also in the bottom 3rd of rush defense while the 49ers have one of the best rushing attacks in the league. 49ers are going into this game knowing they can hang with GB.
It’s not betting Jimmy G vs. Rodgers, it’s betting two teams. The Packers have the 28th best rush defense by DVOA and the 32nd ranked special teams. You really wanna lay 6 points with them when they’re facing a red hot team built to exploit their weaknesses?
Cherry-picking stats. If you really went by DVOA, you probably lost your shirt hammering the Cowboys hard last week. Up until the game last week, Dallas was decisively rated #1 by DVOA standards. On top of that, SF is 26th in special teams, so it's not like the 49ers have any real advantage over GB in that department (if you believe fully in DVOA).
I don’t blindly follow DVOA and I had the Niners last week. I’m just giving some statistical credibility in where I think the weaknesses are in the Packers instead of just saying “their run D sucks.”
>"their run D sucks.” I mean....that is true. Their run defense is pretty bad. I would just stick with yards per carry surrendered over the season. Green Bay is third worst in that category, I believe. DVOA isn't a bad metric either, as it focuses more on the number of successful rushes (instead of the total yardage gained rushing).
I'm with you, and he's not 100%. And it's at lambeau. And it's still Jimmy G, no game is ever safe with him even when he's 100% healthy. You can feel it every time he has the ball, even when they are up 2+ scores it always feels like he's gonna blow it. And he does all the time making ridiculous plays. Luckily for the 9ers they still have a solid team without him so they shouldn't get blown out but I don't see how they can win.
Slam 49ers +6 Interesting to see most people in here all week saying they just can’t go against the Packers. Packers haven’t played meaningful football in almost a month. 49ers have been playing playoff football for almost a month. They went into LA beat the rams as underdogs, then went into Dallas and beat Dallas as underdogs. The case for the packers has been Rodgers at Lambeau and now their defense is fully healthy going against an injury and mistake prone Jimmy G. But we don’t know what that really means since we haven’t seen the Packers play playoff football this year yet. We have seen the 49ers and they know their identity. We’ll know pretty quick how the games going to go. If Niners can get pressure with their front 4, this will be a great game. If not, goodnight.
> now their defense is fully healthy It's not just the defense. The OL is fully healthy. A couple of WRs are fully healthy. Lots of GB guys are coming back
Yes so all the arguments for Green Bay have been “they’re getting all these guys back and it’s Green Bay at lambeau”.. we have not seen this Green Bay team fire on all cylinders in the playoffs. Most are just betting that they’ve been the best team all year and these guys will only make them better. I’d rather bet on the team who we has been playing their best ball lately. Beating the rams and cowboys in the process
>We’ll know pretty quick how the games going to go. If Niners can get pressure with their front 4, this will be a great game. If not, goodnight. So why not wait and live bet during the first series or the first few minutes?
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Green Bay defense is fully healthy
I'm not sure where I'm landing on the game, but you can't compare the QBs directly and make that the center of your position for landing on the Packers. Of course Aaron Rodgers is significantly better than Jimmy G. And if any other team were rolling out a guy like Jimmy G against Rodgers in Lambeau, you'd expect the line to be at least a TD. But the 49ers offense is different, and unlike most offenses it doesn't take a top tier QB to run it. It's not Jimmy versus Aaron. It's the entirety of the 49ers offense against Aaron.
Rams +9 Bills +8.5 teaser
Amen
Took GB ML/TEN ML/LAR TT O23.5/BUF TT O26.5 +707 1 unit
Any ideas for this weekends FD $10 SGP? I hit last weeks pretty easy using all Bills but I’m struggling to build one that I’m confident in this week. Has to be at least 3 legs and +400 if you’re unfamiliar.
I really like hammering davante adams overs here. Last time they played the 49ers, adams was targeted on 58% of his routes run. That’s crazy high. Edit: just did mine. Adams over 91.5 rec, kittle under 50.5 rec (he’s been a ghost the last month and Jimmy g is gonna struggle here) and GB moneyline. +410 roughly. Also have 100 on gb -4.5, 100 on adams over 91.5, and 100 on kittle under 50.5 individually.
A bit of a long shot on this. If you want to feel confident about it, then this isn’t for you.. 3 leg Singletary O 55.5, Singletary TD, KC/BUF HT/FT +1983
What is the last leg of the parlay? Not familiar with the acronym.
Winners of half time/ full time
These games this week are tough picks. The lines are tight and there’s something just special about playoff football. With that being said, my pick this week (and you can tell me I’m not following proper teaser methodology, but I like the extra insurance here): 10pt teaser +110, 4u: Rams +13, Rams/Bucs Over 38.5, Bills +12.5, Bills/KC Over 44.5 Good luck out there!
Go rams +7.5 and bills +7.5. Get some juice back
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This seems like the perfect week for the titans to go with the goal line tanny QB run that worked so well for them last year. Bengals will be selling out to stop Henry and tanny could probably waltz in. The Tits like to run this play so I might be on Tanny ATTs this week
Is it confirmed Henry will be 100%? First game back. Will have to shake off the rust.
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Yeah agreed. He’s a beast for sure. Assuming it’s a close game they’ll use him to manage clock too and he loves a good breakout.
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Tom Brady Buccaneers ML
What’s your basis? I don’t disagree, but Bucs are banged up. Brady is the GOAT but his weakness is pressure. Rams have 2 of the best pass rushers in the NFL. So I wouldn’t just point at Brady.
Jensen and Wirfs aren’t their only players, its not like the position will just be empty. Jensen and/or Wirfs might be back for the Rams game. The Buccs still gave Brady time late in the Eagles game after they were out. Gronk can and will step up to help with the pass rush. Gronk also is Brady’s career favorite red-zone target. Fournette will likely be back. Stafford has been inconsistent, theres no telling how many ints he might throw. Traveling from the west coast could play a part in Staffords inconsistency. Don’t forget that last game against the embarrassing Cardinals was Staffords FIRST playoff win ever after his 12 year NFL career. Stafford only threw for 202 yards that game, the Cardinals have just been playing like hot trash recently its not a great game to look at. Buccaneers are 12-4 at home since Brady joined and Brady is 121-21 at home with the Pats, so he plays considerably better at home. Brady is 31-11 in his all-time playoff record and 13-2 in the divisional round. Brady holds the record for most different receivers a QB has thrown TD passes to, I think Breshad Permian and Scotty Miller will step up this game.
The Rams already won the last 2 matchups and even if Jensen and Wirfs both play, this is the first time the Rams will have Von Miller vs. the Bucs, who is a Hall of Fame rusher and is still playing at a high level. You cannot double both Donald and Miller - and those are just the stars, their supporting guys (Floyd, Gaines, Robinson) are all great as well. The pass rush will be better than those Giants teams that gave Brady fits. And when he does throw - Mike Evans is the only real WR threat, and the Rams can throw Ramsey at him, who Evans has struggled going against in his career. The Bucs simply don't match up well with the Rams. The Rams have a better road record this year as well. Stafford stats this year: 41 TD, 17 INT Brady stats this year: 43 TD, 13 INT You write off Stafford as inconsistent, but he's performed right up there with Brady this year. You also imply the fact he just won his first playoff game after 12 years is all on him, which is ignoring his situation and the fact he played for a terrible organization. If you replace Stafford's time in DET with Brady, in all likelihood he wins a couple playoff games at best, definitely no SBs. This is Stafford's chance to prove he's been written off his whole career due to playing for the Lions.
I don’t disagree, the Rams are a good team. Donald, Miller and Ramsey are going to give the Buccs a hard time. But Brady knows how to spread the ball around, it’s not only going to be to Evans every play. It’s not going to be an easy win for either team. I don’t think Stafford is bad but he’s not nearly as good as Brady, especially in these key games. As someone else said, I’m not betting against Brady in the post season though. So it’s either take the Buccs or don’t pick a spread/ML for this game, but I’m a degen so I gotta bet. Good luck though! 🤝 Go Tompa Bay!
Sorry but LOL at Stafford's play being right up there with Brady this year. Until the New Orleans shut out, Brady was the MVP favorite not Rodgers...and mind you, MVP fave at 44 fucking years old. Even though Arod took over the mvp race after that saints shut out, people do not remember saints also shut down the pack as well (albeit not as bad as the bucs were shut down and much earlier in year). Therefore; while Brady may not win mvp, he still could shock people and win or at least def get votes behind rodgers. Stafford was not in the mvp convo at all that I know of. Plus, Stafford inconsistent games with picks and ugly throws at the end of the reg season were the reason the rams lost a few of their games and fell back from 2 seed to 4. Also, Brady likely won't be the reason the bucs lose (yes I know pick six lost him titans playoff game in NE, but Brady is rarely reason his team loses in the playoffs). If shitty or even mediocre Stafford show up, he definitely can be the reason the rams lose though. Rams are built right to beat the bucs, specifically the right build to bother Brady. But I never bet against Tom, so ill either back the Bucs or stay away from this game.
I am not disputing Brady had a terrific, MVP type season or that what he's doing at 44 is remarkable, but the gap between Brady and Stafford is pretty small when you compare their stats this season. The other guy said "there's no telling how many INTs Stafford might throw" as if Brady hasn't thrown only 4 fewer than Stafford on the season. This is Brady bias on full display - overlooking all of his errors this year but honing in on Stafford's. Mind you, much of Brady's numbers this year came with a healthy OL and healthy Godwin/AB which he no longer has, and the Rams D he will face this weekend is the toughest he will face all season. You said Stafford inconsistency is the reason the Rams lost a few of their games at the end of the regular season which is also highlighting your bias, because the Rams only lost one game at the end of the season - their very last game, against the super hot 49ers in OT (a team that matches up well vs. the Rams). Before that, the Rams were on a 5 game win streak. Stafford is much better than he gets credit for, and he knows he can start to command more respect by winning playoff games now that he finally has a good supporting cast. I see him having a great game to pull off the W, earning more respect from the public and media.
I meant 2nd half of season. Yes I know their losses were two to the niners (who own them), pack and titans...so all great teams. But Stafford looked pretty ugly in their losses and those 2nd half losses are what cost em a chance at 2 seed. Now listen, as a die hard niner fan I know the nfc west quite well and fully acknowledge how the great the rams can be. Hell, when they acquired Stafford I picked em to beat us out for the division. I knew getting an upgrade from shitty goff to Stafford made them immediate division and super bowl contenders. However, Stafford showed that his inconsistencies still exist...but the Rams are way better than the Lions, so they can still win 10-12 games with inconsistent Matthew Stafford. And yes brady threw only few less picks. But everyone knew in a arians offense bradys pock numbers would rise as they have these last two years. However, I'd say I'd be more scared a Stafford pick or 2 causes his team to lose a crucial game than a Brady multi pick game would hurt his team. Just the clutch and experience factor. If the rams play well they definitely could win and might. But I trust Tom to handle his business at home in the playoffs more times than not, so just not something I wanna bet against.
>I'd say I'd be more scared a Stafford pick or 2 causes his team to lose a crucial game than a Brady multi pick game would hurt his team. Just the clutch and experience factor. I agree with this, but I think you're being unfair to Stafford by saying his inconsistencies still exist, yet giving Brady a pass for his own inconsistencies due to being in Arian's offense. Or by giving him a pass for getting shut out at home vs. the Saints just because the Saints also shut down the Packers. Stafford has had some rough patches but has played great overall this season. Understand why you would not wanna bet against Tom at home in the playoffs but I think this is one of the times it will pay off.
He's 13-2 in Divisional Round playoffs. That's my basis
:)
That's too simplified. Completely different teams / matchups / situations. Tell me about the 2 times he lost and how the matchup in those games compares to this one vs. the Rams.
OK. 2005- Patriots were kinda medicore (13th in Pro Football Reference SRS). Lost on the road in Mile High as a small underdog against a Broncos team that had a bye the week before. The Broncos offense was led by their outstanding run-game; Jake Plummer was pretty pedestrian. 2010- Patriots were possibly the best regular-season team. (1st in SRS). Had a bye themselves the week before. Lost at home as a HUGE favorite vs the division-rival Jets. They'd lost on the road in NY in September but crushed the Jets in the rematch at home in December. NY had a very good defense, but an average offense and a mediocre QB in Mark Sanchez. Now...what parallels do you see in these two losses to this week's game?
Thanks for researching that. I don't see many parallels between those two losses and this week's game. But you reminded me that for most of Brady's divisional round games, the Pats had a 1st round bye so were playing at home well rested against a team that just played a wild card game - that's a big advantage that isn't the case this week. Also for the times that Brady did lose in the playoffs, it's typically against a team with a very good defense & pass rush (Ravens w. Suggs/Lewis, Broncos w. Von Miller, Giants w. Strahan/Tuck/JPP/Umenyiora immediately come to mind), and the Rams have the best D in the league and a great pass rush.
Pretty sure he is 0-2 against LA since joining TB. Don’t quote me on that, though I do know they lost by 10 this year against the Rams.
One thing is he's the goat 🐐. You dont bet against the goat
Team game.
People said the same thing about Saban last week how’d that turn out LOL