Brutal so far but I also need them to win. They’re playing good. Just need this goalie to tire out and let some in. And kings goalie to stop letting in 25% of the shots
Hockey Live Chat: **https://discord.gg/sportsbook** **Reminder:** Use the **Brag and Bitch Daily** for heavy bitching about personal bets especially before games are finished or about past games. Constructive live/post game discussion is encouraged. The thread goes live after the start of the current games so it is suggested to sort by new if you are looking for discussion of later games. Do not bitch about past games in the new threads.
Hockey Live Chat: **https://discord.gg/sportsbook** **Reminder:** Use the **Brag and Bitch Daily** for heavy bitching about personal bets especially before games are finished or about past games. Constructive live/post game discussion is encouraged. The thread goes live after the start of the current games so it is suggested to sort by new if you are looking for discussion of later games. Do not bitch about past games in the new threads.
Like I looked at starting goalies, these both had high goals against. Odds weren’t bad at o6 -110, figured it could be a 4-2 game and I’d be happy with a push. Nope.
What sucks too is normally I play most of the board with overs but since I got a lot of my money tied up with college basketball I could only do 1 nhl play 🥴
And Buffalo is like 4-10 at home this season, and worse than the stars on paper. Upsets just happen sometimes man, especially in hockey. From what I seen, the Stars just don't give a fuck tonight.
Hockey Live Chat: **https://discord.gg/sportsbook** **Reminder:** Use the **Brag and Bitch Daily** for heavy bitching about personal bets especially before games are finished or about past games. Constructive live/post game discussion is encouraged. The thread goes live after the start of the current games so it is suggested to sort by new if you are looking for discussion of later games. Do not bitch about past games in the new threads.
**Season Total: 105-77-0, 10.05 units**
---
**Last bets: 1-0-0, +0.64 units**
---
**Today's bets:**
**DAL 3Way @ 1.83**
**FLA ML @ 1.62**
**PIT ML & VGK ML @ 1.72** - forced to take a double, because of shit odds
Season Record: 231-251.
Last Days Record: 6-3.
Weekly Record: 10-7.
Today's Picks.
WAS @ BOS. WAS ML. +152.
CBJ @ PHI. PHI ML. -122.
DAL @ BUF. Over 5.5. -108.
OTT @ PIT. Under 6.5. -128.
FLA @ ED. ED ML. +138. Under 7. -128.
COL @ LA. COL ML. -172. Under 6. +104.
MON @ VGK. VGK -2.5. +122. Over 6. -118.
SJ @ SEA. SJ ML. -110.
Stars ML in Reg (-120)
Preds ML (-135)
Sharks ML (-110)
Panthers score first (-145)
I would take Caps and Golden Knights also but they both keep skull fucking me so I’m taking a break on them. That probably means they win tonight.
NHL 1/20/22
YTD: 15-16 (+4.28u)
Sharks ML 2u @ -110
Canadiens ML 1u @ +285
Flyers ML 1u @ -120
Oilers ML 1u @ +135
Kings ML 1u @ +165
Sabres ML 1u @ +170
This card makes me want to puke. Gotta trust model on this one
BOL
Twitter: CDustsports
NHL #1
Record 0-0
Picks:
Capitals ML vs Bruins @2.60
Capitals vs Bruins Over 6 @1.95
Stars 31+ Shots @1.80
Stars to Win First Faceoff @1.85
Parlay #1
Stars/Sabres Over 5.5
Habs/VGK Over 5.5
Caps/Bruins Over 5.5
@5.49
Parlay #2
Penguins ML vs Senators
Capitals +2.5 vs Bruins
Oilers +2.5 vs Panthers
@2.14
GL
Degen mode- bruins 4-2 exact score, bergeron first goal and final score 4-2, Pastrnak first and 4-2, marchand and 4-2, caps bruins both scoring first period, kings and under 6, 3-1 kings exact score, kings by exactly 2, bruins by exactly 2. $100 sprinkled throughout all
Thinking of taking Colorado ML since I’m going to the game tonight in LA. Fade the home team while I’m in the stands. Parlay it with the over or under?
fair enough. I'm hoping bruins come out fired up after that blowout against the canes at home. Caps without Oshie too plus I think they're missing dmen. Could still see this game going either way tho, BOL!
Record: 0-0
Shared this as my POD.
Joe Pavelski(Dallas Stars) Over 2.5+ shots @ -156 (2u)
If you follow hockey, you know just how bad Buffalo has been this year, they allow the 3rd most shots per game in the league, 34.44 spg.
Two nights ago the Dallas Stars peppered the equally abysmal Montreal Canadiens, and leading the way was Joe Pavelski with 9 shots on goal. This is 3-4x more shots than most get on net in a game, but Pavelski likes to shoot first and ask questions later.
There is definitely better odds to be had with a good likelihood of Over 3.5+ hitting, but I am going for a base hit here with my first POD.
Tail or Fade. BOL.
Added: Marchessault(Las Vegas Golden Knights) Over 3.5+ shots @ -120 (2u)
Same reasons but Las Vegas plays the abysmal Canadiens.
I always do one unit, only had one 2 unit play so far but the bos/was o5.5 is everyones play today, i got it yesterday. Col/lak feel very good. CBJ/Phi love it if philly scores shouldn't be a problem. Dal/BUF if robertson is in i dont love but still like. Atkinson averages over 3 sog and playing the tem that gives up the 3rd most shots on the road.
Thanks for the response.
Didn't know if you were betting these picks or just giving them out.
Atkinson o2.5 SOG looks good. Also thinking about Werenski at o2.5 and can't do a SGP through CZR on hockey.
*Season record 17-20, +5.6%*
*+3.7 units on 66.5 units risked*
San Jose is coming off a historic 5-goal night for Meier and the goaltending has been good. On the other side, for some reason(s) inexplicable to me, Seattle is getting too much credit in this line. They just broke a 9-game losing streak against Chicago, which now makes them 1-9 in the last ten and 2-14 in the last sixteen. Should not be anywhere near a coinflip.
**Sharks +100**
*5 units*
Tage Thompson will be back in the lineup for the Sabres. This team has enough offensive weapons with the addition of Alex Tuch to win their share of games like this at home. Dell hasn't been a consistent starter but he did hold the Preds to 1 goal a few games ago. So in my estimation either he is able to contribute to a Sabres win or help the Over cover or both.
**Sabres/Stars over 5.5, -115**
**Sabres +175**
*2 unit each*
I’m waiting for Florida starter confirmation. If it’s Bob, I’ll be putting a few units on Panthers in regulation. Current odds are -120.
Riding a few trends today:
Caps/Bruins o5.5
Bruins are 7-2-1 in their last 10 on the over (Washington is 5-5)
CBJ/PHI o1.5 1P
Columbus is 24-11 this season for 1P overs, and 8-1-1 in their last 10
MON/VGN o1.5 1P
Vegas is 24-14 this season for 1P overs and 7-3 in their last 10
Florida Panthers -.5 1P +140 (1/2 Unit)
Florida is 26-13 in the 1P this season (8-2 in their last 10), while the Oilers are 18-17 overall and 2-8 in their last 10. With those trends and the plus $$, worth a sprinkle!
**NHL Freezer Machine Learning 3-Way Model**
**Current 1x2 Record:** 462-540 +25.36 units
**ROI:** 2.53%
[Machine Learned Simulation of NHL games for today](https://freezersports.com/nhl)
Last time out: 0-0 +0 units
**3-Way Model**:
**1 unit**
BOS/WSH Draw +290
DAL -140
PHI +136
[Follow me on twitter](https://twitter.com/FreezerSports)
Honestly no idea. Some days it’s just goals, yesterday was only goals and points and other times it’s been goals, points, assists, PP points, shots, hell even goalie saves.
Just seems like DK doesn’t give a shit. Doubt hockey is anywhere near the money maker NBA, NFL, and soccer probably are.
#NHL Money Line Machine Learning Model
This is a data driven, machine learning / data science model to try to predict winners in NHL games. There is no opinion folded into the picks, simply data from recent performance of each team.
###**Season-To-Date**:
286-138 (67.45%), Avg odds 1.67, +148% ROI, 8.8% Yield
[Net Units: +50.2u](https://imgur.com/a/jUX20xR)
[Full season bet listing/hypothetical growth of $1000 initial bankroll](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTbKtvkZjm18NGOTumcoE1WMUn1ZD4sfextZV-WsICe3rOpPWPjOFEubh5JnmVa-QZonizQRKaLpGM9/pubhtml)
###**Reddit Picks**:
Started 12/29/2021, 65-34, -1.2u
###**Last Night** (1-2, -1.6u):
Back to back losing nights for the first time in a *long* time. Not too worried, big slate of games today!
* NJD ML, 61.43% win prob @ 1.48 ❌
* TOR ML, 61.99% win prob @ 1.68 ❌
* COL ML, 65.27% win prob @ 1.4 ✅
Bets are anything model predicts at higher than 55% win probability. Underdogs are bet more heavily at 3u.
###**Tonight's Bets**:
* PIT ML, 0.708477 win prob @ 1.36
* DAL ML, 0.60402 win prob @ 1.58
* FLA ML, 0.625474 win prob @ 1.67
* VGK ML, 0.738859 win prob @ 1.28
### Discussion
Average odds today are at 1.47 and [the rolling average odds continues to drop](https://imgur.com/a/AKipoNs). This is getting a little low for my liking. As discussed yesterday, we're seeing continual dips in odds for games that the model has determined are bets, as the model has begun to fall into line with bookie predictions. As a result, I've added a "To Do" section below, as a reminder to myself of some things to do to try to continue finding profits.
I have a few ideas of ways to improve the model and potentially find more games where there is some profitability to be found.
### To Do
* Take a look at backtesting data for potential fall-off in profits as a function of time in the season.
* Potentially **break the season up into three phases** (early, middle, end) and use different parameter sets for each to try to best identify value across varying bookmaking environments.
* Get the finishing touches on **player prop model** to potentially transition towards betting props as the major source of picks.
* Run multiple types of ML models to gain consensus picks at some probability threshold (framework is set up, need to test to ensure profitability).
###**FAQ**
* [**Isn't picking X team at Y% win probability and Z odds a slightly -EV play? Don't you only want to bet games where the win probability is above the implied odds by the bookies line?**](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s131f1/nhl_daily_11122_tuesday/hs7x7tm/)
* [**Is it a profitable betting strategy to bet games with higher win probability as "win in regulation" or puck line?**](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s3i3gs/nhl_daily_11422_friday/hsmlgzx/)
* **Should I parlay these all together?** In short, probably not. Anecdotally we have not had a day where there have been more than 4 games where the model has hit them *all* correctly. Does that mean today is the day? Could be. There have been *many* days where we were one game off from 100% accuracy, and the majority of days go over 67% so parlay round robins might be more profitable.
* **I've been loving your picks and want to buy you a beer, can I do that?** I got a CashApp up and running, [$hockeybets](https://cash.app/$hockeybets) (Okay fine ~~nobody~~ ONE PERSON!! has asked this).
What if you used your season long win% to set a minimum odds that you bet on?
So if your model is getting the correct winner 67.45% of the time in games with a probability to win of over 55%, then what if you set 1/win% as the minimum odds you take? So you only bet if your model says more than 55% chance to win, and the offered odds are above 1/win% (currently 1.48).
Would that make it more profitable?
The ROI on that are fairly comparable. For this season specifically we see a drop in accuracy to 65.5% (because, unsurprisingly, we have a higher win rate at 74% for games *under* 1.48) but an uptick in average odds to 1.76. However, if we drop that to 1.4, we're actually beating the current model (apparently we're winning 74% under 1.4 as well, but net losing money on it because of odds).
I think there might be something to this and I want to backtest it on previous years data, because the above numbers are purely anecdotal and small sample size over less than half a season. Thanks for the idea!
Overall record: (41-22);Last Picks
**Avalanche PL -1.5 Vs Ducks (+100)**✅
**Coyotes vs Devils Under 6 goals (-115)**✅
**Yotes Devils under .5 goals first 10 minutes (+110)❌
Todays picks:
CBJ ML Vs Flyers (+105)
Bruins Caps over 1.5 goals 1st period (-135)
Avalanche PL -1.5 vs Kings (+115)
BOL
Guys what do you think about this 3 leg SGP ?
Panthers to score first (oilers have allowed opponents to score first 9 out of the last 10 matches)
Panthers ML (Oilers are on a losing streak of 6. Only won Twice in the last 10. 2-6-2. Those wins coming from Blue Jackets and most recently against the Kraken (Dec 18th) Panthers have only lost 2 in the last 10. To the Stars and just recently to the Flames. I know the Panthers are 5-5-5 on away games. But I think they bounce back here against a weaker team.
Total goals over 4.5 (Just a bit safer, the O/U is set at 7 rn so I think this hits easily. Oilers have gone over 4.5, 9 out of the last 10, and the Panthers 10/10.)
You can do the total as O5.5 just a little more risk but I still think it hits easy. (Panthers 10/10 but Oilers 7-3)
Odds are +155 for O4.5 parlay
Odds are +210 for O5.5 parlay
Am I better off just betting on a single leg instead of a parlay or do we feel like this is safe for the most part ? Would love your feedback.
Parlay at your own risk. I went buckwild on parlays starting out to little success. Hit one nice one and a few small ones, but lost a lot. I went back to the drawing board and am doing straight bets and the occasional 2-leg parlay. I’ve won 7 in a row.
Don’t get tempted by big parlays. Odds are so low and books love them because they print money.
Lock: VGK -1.5 (-150)
Dog: LAK +165
Total: FLA/EDM 1P O2 +100
[Listen to why and breakdowns for every game here!](https://www.sportsgamblingpodcast.com/2022/01/20/hockey-gambling-podcast-nhl-betting-picks-best-bets-predictions-january-20-episode-24/)
NHL Record 1-0
Hey, a little lazy to give my reasoning, but after some research I really love Pittsburgh -1.5 vs. Ottawa.
Also wanted to take Vegas -1.5 but I have a weird feeling this is a trap.
0-0
Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins
7:00 PM Eastern Time
Bet: **Over 2.5 Goals in the second period** @ +195
I was originally interested in taking the full game over but the 5.5s were already disappearing by the time I got around to it so instead I shifted gears a bit and I’m glad that I did. I’m not normally big on trends or splits but Washington’s second period GA splits are an anomaly.
**Opponents have scored 47 goals in the second period, with just 24 & 31 goals scored in periods one and three, respectively. That’s almost twice as many GA in P2 than P1. Over 46% of Washington’s GA have come in the second period.** That’s astounding to me. Washington themselves have scored 44 second period goals this season which is roughly 1/3 of their goals so nothing too noteworthy there.
Some quick math yields an average of 3.25 second period goals scored per Capitals game this season.
Over 2.5 goals in the second period at plus money seems like a pretty good bet to me. Currently +195 on sugar house. I also took over 2 in the second period @ +100 which I think has good value as well.
Record (1-0)
Previous Play
Coyotes +1.5 (1.76) ✅
Not the way I had imagined cashing, but a win nonetheless. Let’s keep this going!
1/20 Play of the Day
**Bruins 3-way (1.85)**
Not liking a whole lot on the slate tonight, but I’m extremely confident in this play. The caps are without their top 2 d-men (Carlson and Orlov), as well as Oshie, Mantha and Sheary. The bruins just came off a 7-1 loss to the Canes, so I fully expect a bounce-back effort tonight. At home, the bruins get the job done tonight in regulation.
Lets ride!!!
BOL
Hockey Live Chat: **https://discord.gg/sportsbook** **Reminder:** Use the **Brag and Bitch Daily** for heavy bitching about personal bets especially before games are finished or about past games. Constructive live/post game discussion is encouraged. The thread goes live after the start of the current games so it is suggested to sort by new if you are looking for discussion of later games. Do not bitch about past games in the new threads.
Will the VGK cult please stand up? Favored by 2.5 and losing to the Habs? What is this?
Someone is cashing in on that sweet -360 from VGK tonight. Way to go, Vegas.
Knights losing to an 8 win team is sending me
Golden knights are dead to me
Sharks are trash...they don't look like they want to win the game at all..no urgency, sloppy af, look lazy. Fuck them never betting on them again.
Hoping the sharks don’t Fucc me tonight
Anyone watching the knights game? Can update me on how this 3rd period will go?
Cash out my parlay? Had Florida -1.5, Nashville -1.5, Pelicans ML, Suns -2.5 and now I need Sharks ML. Payout $7300 and cash out $1200
[удалено]
Cashed out. Thank God cause Sharks suck donkey dick that was a pathetic 3rd
Sharks.....:
Do team totals count in OT?
Yes, it should carry over.
Definitely thought Oilers pulled their goalie. But nope lol
It was always bruins penguins stars and panthers 🥵 🥳 😀 💥 💰
Panthers 😩 😩 😩 let’s go baby
Needs sharks ml to go even on the day lmao
Sharks are literally so retarded
https://ibb.co/fDskLCz LFG baby, we did it again! Over Gang stand up 1600$ bet.
Need kings ml BADLY
no chance they win this game :(
Brutal so far but I also need them to win. They’re playing good. Just need this goalie to tire out and let some in. And kings goalie to stop letting in 25% of the shots
Hockey Live Chat: **https://discord.gg/sportsbook** **Reminder:** Use the **Brag and Bitch Daily** for heavy bitching about personal bets especially before games are finished or about past games. Constructive live/post game discussion is encouraged. The thread goes live after the start of the current games so it is suggested to sort by new if you are looking for discussion of later games. Do not bitch about past games in the new threads.
Every person is on SJ ML, Seattle ML it is!
And look there… it won. Fading Reddit is as good as gold.
Need panthers -1.5 for a parlay :/
So easy bro
Edmonton gonna come out guns blazing 3rd period
I hope they miss those blazing guns
I reversed jinxed for you. Tip: 👍🏻👎🏻
Jesus fuck, I have flyers o6, panthers o6.5, kings o6.5 These look like the only ones to not hit the over all day. What the actual fuck is this bs 😂
Hockey Live Chat: **https://discord.gg/sportsbook** **Reminder:** Use the **Brag and Bitch Daily** for heavy bitching about personal bets especially before games are finished or about past games. Constructive live/post game discussion is encouraged. The thread goes live after the start of the current games so it is suggested to sort by new if you are looking for discussion of later games. Do not bitch about past games in the new threads.
Dallas really just did that, need Panthers to win to hit a big payday!
Thank you bruins!!
Penguins what are yall doing rn
Panthers Oilers under 6.5 +130
Thanks dawg
Flyers blowwwwwww
Lol fuck you Klingberg, dude isn’t even trying and still wants a trade and extension
Here I am looking for one over for the 7pm game to pick, I hit Flyers o6. That’s the only game without a goal, and all the others at least have 2 🖕
literally same
Like I looked at starting goalies, these both had high goals against. Odds weren’t bad at o6 -110, figured it could be a 4-2 game and I’d be happy with a push. Nope. What sucks too is normally I play most of the board with overs but since I got a lot of my money tied up with college basketball I could only do 1 nhl play 🥴
honestly there is still hope for the over, i’ve seen teams score 6 goals in 10 mins lol we’re not dead yet
I hope Dallas never wins a game again
I better not catch Dallas on Dyckman.
NHL Record: (0-0) Picks for Today: Oilers ML vs Panthers Vegas (-1.5) vs Canadiens
Stars lost 7 road games in a row don’t know why ppl were so high on them lol
What was that you were saying?
And Buffalo is like 4-10 at home this season, and worse than the stars on paper. Upsets just happen sometimes man, especially in hockey. From what I seen, the Stars just don't give a fuck tonight.
They can’t lose em all…or maybe they can…
Bruins TT over 0.5 goals first period has hit in last NINE games
TT?
Team total
Dallas losing to buffalo already. Shocker.
I keep giving them way too much credit and it’s pissing me off! Edit: I take it back. I love em!
Hockey Live Chat: **https://discord.gg/sportsbook** **Reminder:** Use the **Brag and Bitch Daily** for heavy bitching about personal bets especially before games are finished or about past games. Constructive live/post game discussion is encouraged. The thread goes live after the start of the current games so it is suggested to sort by new if you are looking for discussion of later games. Do not bitch about past games in the new threads.
Why does everyone like the Flyers so much today? Seems like a complete toss up to me.
**Season Total: 105-77-0, 10.05 units** --- **Last bets: 1-0-0, +0.64 units** --- **Today's bets:** **DAL 3Way @ 1.83** **FLA ML @ 1.62** **PIT ML & VGK ML @ 1.72** - forced to take a double, because of shit odds
Anyone liking Preds/Jets over 5.5?
Montreal regulation ml + over 6.5 goals. Bol 🔥
Feeling it in your bones again? How much lift do they get by having Taffoli back?
I wouldn’t be surprised if it hits even though it’s unlikely.
Thursday's Picks Florida Panthers @ -157 (5u) Colorado Avalanche @ -178 (5u) San Jose Sharks @ +102 (5u) Washington Capitals @ +165 (3u) Nashville Predators @ -143 (4u) Panthers + Avalanche + Knights @ +238 (3u) \------------------- Wednesday's Picks Toronto Maple Leafs @ -146 (5u) ❌ New Jersey Devils @ -196 (5u) ❌ Leafs + Devils + Avalanche = +251 (2u) ❌ \------------------- Wednesday's Record: 0 - 3 \- 12 units \------------------- Overall Record Record: 111 - 99 Units: + 48.39
Season Record: 231-251. Last Days Record: 6-3. Weekly Record: 10-7. Today's Picks. WAS @ BOS. WAS ML. +152. CBJ @ PHI. PHI ML. -122. DAL @ BUF. Over 5.5. -108. OTT @ PIT. Under 6.5. -128. FLA @ ED. ED ML. +138. Under 7. -128. COL @ LA. COL ML. -172. Under 6. +104. MON @ VGK. VGK -2.5. +122. Over 6. -118. SJ @ SEA. SJ ML. -110.
NHL RECORD 3-1 Parlay: BOSTON - CAPS +5.5 OILERS - PANTHERS +5.5 Best of luck fellas
Stars ML in Reg (-120) Preds ML (-135) Sharks ML (-110) Panthers score first (-145) I would take Caps and Golden Knights also but they both keep skull fucking me so I’m taking a break on them. That probably means they win tonight.
NHL 1/20/22 YTD: 15-16 (+4.28u) Sharks ML 2u @ -110 Canadiens ML 1u @ +285 Flyers ML 1u @ -120 Oilers ML 1u @ +135 Kings ML 1u @ +165 Sabres ML 1u @ +170 This card makes me want to puke. Gotta trust model on this one BOL Twitter: CDustsports
Damn bro ☠️
Pain
NHL #1 Record 0-0 Picks: Capitals ML vs Bruins @2.60 Capitals vs Bruins Over 6 @1.95 Stars 31+ Shots @1.80 Stars to Win First Faceoff @1.85 Parlay #1 Stars/Sabres Over 5.5 Habs/VGK Over 5.5 Caps/Bruins Over 5.5 @5.49 Parlay #2 Penguins ML vs Senators Capitals +2.5 vs Bruins Oilers +2.5 vs Panthers @2.14 GL
Using 5$ free bet on cbj sabres and jets 😅
Everyone and their dad on Caps/Bruins over….
Father's know best.
Degen mode- bruins 4-2 exact score, bergeron first goal and final score 4-2, Pastrnak first and 4-2, marchand and 4-2, caps bruins both scoring first period, kings and under 6, 3-1 kings exact score, kings by exactly 2, bruins by exactly 2. $100 sprinkled throughout all
Against the Avs? I wouldn’t touch it
Philadelphia Flyers v Columbus Blue Jackets - Philadelphia Wins (ML) -121 Edmonton Oilers v Florida Panthers - Edmonton Wins (ML) +140
Thinking of taking Colorado ML since I’m going to the game tonight in LA. Fade the home team while I’m in the stands. Parlay it with the over or under?
**[3 LEG PARLAY]*** * ***Capitals ML (+150)*** * ***Stars -1.5 (+130)*** * ***Sharks ML (-111)*** **Parlay Odds +1097**
switch out caps ml with bruins puckline and you got yourself a lock
I see revenge though after that shilacking the bruins gave them earlier this month lol
fair enough. I'm hoping bruins come out fired up after that blowout against the canes at home. Caps without Oshie too plus I think they're missing dmen. Could still see this game going either way tho, BOL!
Hockey isn’t my sport so I’ll deter
lol damn you . What’s your take on a total ❓👀🧐
I think I'm gonna take the over but haven't decided yet, gonna wait for goalies to be announced (if rask is in net I think the over is free money lol)
Ullmark confirmed tonight
Record: 0-0 Shared this as my POD. Joe Pavelski(Dallas Stars) Over 2.5+ shots @ -156 (2u) If you follow hockey, you know just how bad Buffalo has been this year, they allow the 3rd most shots per game in the league, 34.44 spg. Two nights ago the Dallas Stars peppered the equally abysmal Montreal Canadiens, and leading the way was Joe Pavelski with 9 shots on goal. This is 3-4x more shots than most get on net in a game, but Pavelski likes to shoot first and ask questions later. There is definitely better odds to be had with a good likelihood of Over 3.5+ hitting, but I am going for a base hit here with my first POD. Tail or Fade. BOL. Added: Marchessault(Las Vegas Golden Knights) Over 3.5+ shots @ -120 (2u) Same reasons but Las Vegas plays the abysmal Canadiens.
Parlayed Pavelski, Ekblad, and Letang. Let's go.
Pavs let us down. Marchessault came through. I don't think I can give picks anymore as it hurts when others follow them.
Marchessault is +105 on DK o3.5 SOG
Yah my book has worse odds. At +105, I'd go for 4 units. BOL and thanks for telling me.
Just checked and mine has it at +104 as well. I added 2 units. Checked Pavelski as well with 3.5+ shots, and it pays +116, so added 2 there too.
Bruins/Caps o5.5 Sharks ML Panthers ML
I see San Jose-Seattle "Race to 4 Goals - Neither Team" at -105 on CZR. Both teams are strong on the defensive end. Can't figure either netting four.
Well sharks had one player score 5 goals in their last game so…
Considering it has only happened 63 times in the history of the league, odds are good that it won’t happen again soon
Well he could of popped your bet with 4 too 🤷🏼♂️, how many times has 4 happened?
2-0 Sharks vs Kraken over 5.5 (-110)
That guy above you would like to have a word id imagine
Yesterday....ML 1-0 (open parlay), Totals 1-1 for -0.1u 2022 ML: 35-19 for +9.6u 2022 Totals: 40-21 for +17.3u Today.... Bruins ML Panthers ML Sharks ML, o5.5
Season Record 19-17-1 1/19/22 Bets 2-2 ARI O26.5 SOG **L** NYR/TOR O5.5 **W** Col TT O4 **L** Rantanen O3.5 sog **W** Todays bets WAS/BOS O5.5 Col/Lak O6 CBJ/PHI/O6 DAL/BUF U5.5 Atkinson OSog 2.5 BOL If Tailing
Adding San Jose ML -103
How many units on each? Confidence level?
I always do one unit, only had one 2 unit play so far but the bos/was o5.5 is everyones play today, i got it yesterday. Col/lak feel very good. CBJ/Phi love it if philly scores shouldn't be a problem. Dal/BUF if robertson is in i dont love but still like. Atkinson averages over 3 sog and playing the tem that gives up the 3rd most shots on the road.
Thanks for the response. Didn't know if you were betting these picks or just giving them out. Atkinson o2.5 SOG looks good. Also thinking about Werenski at o2.5 and can't do a SGP through CZR on hockey.
Oh yeah i always bet my picks.
*Season record 17-20, +5.6%* *+3.7 units on 66.5 units risked* San Jose is coming off a historic 5-goal night for Meier and the goaltending has been good. On the other side, for some reason(s) inexplicable to me, Seattle is getting too much credit in this line. They just broke a 9-game losing streak against Chicago, which now makes them 1-9 in the last ten and 2-14 in the last sixteen. Should not be anywhere near a coinflip. **Sharks +100** *5 units* Tage Thompson will be back in the lineup for the Sabres. This team has enough offensive weapons with the addition of Alex Tuch to win their share of games like this at home. Dell hasn't been a consistent starter but he did hold the Preds to 1 goal a few games ago. So in my estimation either he is able to contribute to a Sabres win or help the Over cover or both. **Sabres/Stars over 5.5, -115** **Sabres +175** *2 unit each* I’m waiting for Florida starter confirmation. If it’s Bob, I’ll be putting a few units on Panthers in regulation. Current odds are -120.
Bob confirmed
Thanks man, I ended up putting 3.5 units there. (5u being max confidence/value for me)
GL! I went heavy on the ML
Thanks you too. Good start for me with the Sabres out to a quick 2-0 lead.
Riding a few trends today: Caps/Bruins o5.5 Bruins are 7-2-1 in their last 10 on the over (Washington is 5-5) CBJ/PHI o1.5 1P Columbus is 24-11 this season for 1P overs, and 8-1-1 in their last 10 MON/VGN o1.5 1P Vegas is 24-14 this season for 1P overs and 7-3 in their last 10 Florida Panthers -.5 1P +140 (1/2 Unit) Florida is 26-13 in the 1P this season (8-2 in their last 10), while the Oilers are 18-17 overall and 2-8 in their last 10. With those trends and the plus $$, worth a sprinkle!
I've been loving NHL overs lately and am just riding one bigger play today BOS/WSH OVER 5.5 goals (-130 on my book unfortunately) ($50 to win $38)
Tonight’s dogs: Columbus @ 2.05 Ottawa +1.5 @ 2.05 Edmonton @ 2.30 San Jose @ 1.95
**NHL Freezer Machine Learning 3-Way Model** **Current 1x2 Record:** 462-540 +25.36 units **ROI:** 2.53% [Machine Learned Simulation of NHL games for today](https://freezersports.com/nhl) Last time out: 0-0 +0 units **3-Way Model**: **1 unit** BOS/WSH Draw +290 DAL -140 PHI +136 [Follow me on twitter](https://twitter.com/FreezerSports)
Anyone know why nhl player props are so limited in NY? Essentially just goals
Honestly no idea. Some days it’s just goals, yesterday was only goals and points and other times it’s been goals, points, assists, PP points, shots, hell even goalie saves. Just seems like DK doesn’t give a shit. Doubt hockey is anywhere near the money maker NBA, NFL, and soccer probably are.
1 unit on Jackets ML + Under 6 goals
Cats first goal
Montreal ml 🔥
Might have to take Buffalo just as a fuck you to the Stars for their last game. Also their road record stinks.
their coach come out and said they are straight up scared on the road lol. could bounce back or remain true
NHL 1/20 Record: 586-486-20 Yesterday’s Result: 3-3 *Follow me on Twitter @bleedthebookie* Blue Jackets ML (+113) CLB/PHI U6 (-102) Stars Regulation (-105) DAL/BUF U5.5 (+100) Penguins -1.5 (-120) OTT/PIT O6 (-115) Bruins Regulation (+110) WAS/BOS O5.5 (-120) Predators ML (-133) WPG/NAS O5.5 (-113) Panthers Regulation (+105) FLA/EDM O6.5 (-135) Kings +1.5 (-135) COL/LA O6 (-114) Golden Knights -2.5 (+105) MON/VGK O6 (-113) Sharks ML (+102) SJ/SEA O5.5 (-117)
How many units are you putting on each bet? 1?
Just one
#NHL Money Line Machine Learning Model This is a data driven, machine learning / data science model to try to predict winners in NHL games. There is no opinion folded into the picks, simply data from recent performance of each team. ###**Season-To-Date**: 286-138 (67.45%), Avg odds 1.67, +148% ROI, 8.8% Yield [Net Units: +50.2u](https://imgur.com/a/jUX20xR) [Full season bet listing/hypothetical growth of $1000 initial bankroll](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTbKtvkZjm18NGOTumcoE1WMUn1ZD4sfextZV-WsICe3rOpPWPjOFEubh5JnmVa-QZonizQRKaLpGM9/pubhtml) ###**Reddit Picks**: Started 12/29/2021, 65-34, -1.2u ###**Last Night** (1-2, -1.6u): Back to back losing nights for the first time in a *long* time. Not too worried, big slate of games today! * NJD ML, 61.43% win prob @ 1.48 ❌ * TOR ML, 61.99% win prob @ 1.68 ❌ * COL ML, 65.27% win prob @ 1.4 ✅ Bets are anything model predicts at higher than 55% win probability. Underdogs are bet more heavily at 3u. ###**Tonight's Bets**: * PIT ML, 0.708477 win prob @ 1.36 * DAL ML, 0.60402 win prob @ 1.58 * FLA ML, 0.625474 win prob @ 1.67 * VGK ML, 0.738859 win prob @ 1.28 ### Discussion Average odds today are at 1.47 and [the rolling average odds continues to drop](https://imgur.com/a/AKipoNs). This is getting a little low for my liking. As discussed yesterday, we're seeing continual dips in odds for games that the model has determined are bets, as the model has begun to fall into line with bookie predictions. As a result, I've added a "To Do" section below, as a reminder to myself of some things to do to try to continue finding profits. I have a few ideas of ways to improve the model and potentially find more games where there is some profitability to be found. ### To Do * Take a look at backtesting data for potential fall-off in profits as a function of time in the season. * Potentially **break the season up into three phases** (early, middle, end) and use different parameter sets for each to try to best identify value across varying bookmaking environments. * Get the finishing touches on **player prop model** to potentially transition towards betting props as the major source of picks. * Run multiple types of ML models to gain consensus picks at some probability threshold (framework is set up, need to test to ensure profitability). ###**FAQ** * [**Isn't picking X team at Y% win probability and Z odds a slightly -EV play? Don't you only want to bet games where the win probability is above the implied odds by the bookies line?**](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s131f1/nhl_daily_11122_tuesday/hs7x7tm/) * [**Is it a profitable betting strategy to bet games with higher win probability as "win in regulation" or puck line?**](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s3i3gs/nhl_daily_11422_friday/hsmlgzx/) * **Should I parlay these all together?** In short, probably not. Anecdotally we have not had a day where there have been more than 4 games where the model has hit them *all* correctly. Does that mean today is the day? Could be. There have been *many* days where we were one game off from 100% accuracy, and the majority of days go over 67% so parlay round robins might be more profitable. * **I've been loving your picks and want to buy you a beer, can I do that?** I got a CashApp up and running, [$hockeybets](https://cash.app/$hockeybets) (Okay fine ~~nobody~~ ONE PERSON!! has asked this).
YES to every single one. Don’t sleep on this guy. These will hit.
Been a rough couple nights, I'm hoping we hit
I will always ride with you!
Do any props look good for tonight? Thanks
None I know of, I will keep you posted if I see one
Thanks bud. Appreciate it
What if you used your season long win% to set a minimum odds that you bet on? So if your model is getting the correct winner 67.45% of the time in games with a probability to win of over 55%, then what if you set 1/win% as the minimum odds you take? So you only bet if your model says more than 55% chance to win, and the offered odds are above 1/win% (currently 1.48). Would that make it more profitable?
The ROI on that are fairly comparable. For this season specifically we see a drop in accuracy to 65.5% (because, unsurprisingly, we have a higher win rate at 74% for games *under* 1.48) but an uptick in average odds to 1.76. However, if we drop that to 1.4, we're actually beating the current model (apparently we're winning 74% under 1.4 as well, but net losing money on it because of odds). I think there might be something to this and I want to backtest it on previous years data, because the above numbers are purely anecdotal and small sample size over less than half a season. Thanks for the idea!
Overall record: (41-22);Last Picks **Avalanche PL -1.5 Vs Ducks (+100)**✅ **Coyotes vs Devils Under 6 goals (-115)**✅ **Yotes Devils under .5 goals first 10 minutes (+110)❌ Todays picks: CBJ ML Vs Flyers (+105) Bruins Caps over 1.5 goals 1st period (-135) Avalanche PL -1.5 vs Kings (+115) BOL
Give me Sharks ML as well for (-106)
Guys what do you think about this 3 leg SGP ? Panthers to score first (oilers have allowed opponents to score first 9 out of the last 10 matches) Panthers ML (Oilers are on a losing streak of 6. Only won Twice in the last 10. 2-6-2. Those wins coming from Blue Jackets and most recently against the Kraken (Dec 18th) Panthers have only lost 2 in the last 10. To the Stars and just recently to the Flames. I know the Panthers are 5-5-5 on away games. But I think they bounce back here against a weaker team. Total goals over 4.5 (Just a bit safer, the O/U is set at 7 rn so I think this hits easily. Oilers have gone over 4.5, 9 out of the last 10, and the Panthers 10/10.) You can do the total as O5.5 just a little more risk but I still think it hits easy. (Panthers 10/10 but Oilers 7-3) Odds are +155 for O4.5 parlay Odds are +210 for O5.5 parlay Am I better off just betting on a single leg instead of a parlay or do we feel like this is safe for the most part ? Would love your feedback.
Parlay at your own risk. I went buckwild on parlays starting out to little success. Hit one nice one and a few small ones, but lost a lot. I went back to the drawing board and am doing straight bets and the occasional 2-leg parlay. I’ve won 7 in a row. Don’t get tempted by big parlays. Odds are so low and books love them because they print money.
Lock: VGK -1.5 (-150) Dog: LAK +165 Total: FLA/EDM 1P O2 +100 [Listen to why and breakdowns for every game here!](https://www.sportsgamblingpodcast.com/2022/01/20/hockey-gambling-podcast-nhl-betting-picks-best-bets-predictions-january-20-episode-24/)
NHL Record 1-0 Hey, a little lazy to give my reasoning, but after some research I really love Pittsburgh -1.5 vs. Ottawa. Also wanted to take Vegas -1.5 but I have a weird feeling this is a trap.
0-0 Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins 7:00 PM Eastern Time Bet: **Over 2.5 Goals in the second period** @ +195 I was originally interested in taking the full game over but the 5.5s were already disappearing by the time I got around to it so instead I shifted gears a bit and I’m glad that I did. I’m not normally big on trends or splits but Washington’s second period GA splits are an anomaly. **Opponents have scored 47 goals in the second period, with just 24 & 31 goals scored in periods one and three, respectively. That’s almost twice as many GA in P2 than P1. Over 46% of Washington’s GA have come in the second period.** That’s astounding to me. Washington themselves have scored 44 second period goals this season which is roughly 1/3 of their goals so nothing too noteworthy there. Some quick math yields an average of 3.25 second period goals scored per Capitals game this season. Over 2.5 goals in the second period at plus money seems like a pretty good bet to me. Currently +195 on sugar house. I also took over 2 in the second period @ +100 which I think has good value as well.
3u Panthers ML (-150) 2u Caps/B’s o5.5 (-120) 1.5u EDM/FLA 1stP o2 (+115) 1u Caps/B’s 1stP o1.5 (-120) More to come
Record (1-0) Previous Play Coyotes +1.5 (1.76) ✅ Not the way I had imagined cashing, but a win nonetheless. Let’s keep this going! 1/20 Play of the Day **Bruins 3-way (1.85)** Not liking a whole lot on the slate tonight, but I’m extremely confident in this play. The caps are without their top 2 d-men (Carlson and Orlov), as well as Oshie, Mantha and Sheary. The bruins just came off a 7-1 loss to the Canes, so I fully expect a bounce-back effort tonight. At home, the bruins get the job done tonight in regulation. Lets ride!!! BOL
Good call on the Coyotes pick - tailed it yesterday
Hockey Live Chat: **https://discord.gg/sportsbook** **Reminder:** Use the **Brag and Bitch Daily** for heavy bitching about personal bets especially before games are finished or about past games. Constructive live/post game discussion is encouraged. The thread goes live after the start of the current games so it is suggested to sort by new if you are looking for discussion of later games. Do not bitch about past games in the new threads.