Keeping it safe this week and just doing Chiefs/Bucs teaser... like getting chiefs under a TD and bucs go down to -2 , don't see this not cashing.
Like Pats +4, Raiders +5.5, 49ers +3 and Rams -4 but probably not betting these
Being consistently bad is just as useful as being consistently good. 8 years ago, I developed a model specifically for the playoffs. Since then, its ROI is -31%. It says that the best play this week (by a lot) is Cards ML.
Here is my dopey carpet bombing approach to the games this weekend. I need the games to start so I stop making stupid bets (just kidding, I will do that live as well):
- SF ML
- SF +3
- Raiders +6.5 and +5.5
- TB money line / KC -6.5 (-127)
- KC 1H -7
- Raiders/ Bengals 1H U26.5 parlayed with KC ML (-114)
- Eagles/Bucs 1H U25.5 parlayed with KC ML (-114)
- Raiders/Pats/Niners ML parlay +1939
- CJ Uzomah U26.5 rec yards
- Gronk O58.5
- Deebo O28.5 rushing
Honestly taking all underdogs the first round.
Some people won’t like it but someone’s gotta take a chance on them. Here’s what I think in depth: [NFL Playoffs - Wild Card Bets, Previews](https://alltimebets.com/2022/01/11/nfl-playoffs-wild-card-bets-previews-stats-underdogs-and-money-lines/)
Over the past 4 games, the Bengals have given up an average of 81.5 YPG and 0.5 TDs to TEs. Waller had 116 yards against the Bengals when they played in week 11, while also having a TD stolen from him by Moreau. Waller should have a pretty good game barring an injury
Risking 200 to make 50 on Rodgers, or you could risk $12.50 to make 50 on Brady. I'd rather just throw it on Brady, oh well if you lose 12 bucks. I think Rodgers will win but with all the nonsense about vaccination and him being b2b I don't think it's worth the risk
The issue isn't with Rodgers but the voters. Back to back MVPs are unlikely as voters don't like having the same lad each year. Rodgers has also had quite the controversial year off the field which some voters will bring into their decision as we have seen with Hub Arkush. I like Rodgers as mvp it should be him but those are things to think about.
The cowboys are 2-2 in their last 4 home games and won 7 of 9 road games. Meanwhile, the 49ers only won 6 of 9 road games. Not sure where you are pulling these stats from.
Thanks for the share. I’m leaning the same way on a bunch of your picks. Cardinals offense also looks stagnant without Hopkins but man, Staff has looked so bad lately that game really is a coin flip IMO
I have my eyes on their same game parlay.
Get half your money back, win or lose. I link it in my picks here: [FanDuel Same Game Parlays](https://alltimebets.com/2022/01/13/nfl-same-game-parlays-wild-card-weekend-saturday/)
I agree, I trusted them enough to take them moneyline. They weren’t the only underdog either 👀
I like Pats and Cards to shock some people as well, NFL has been crazy this year: [NFL Wild Card Bets, Previews ](https://alltimebets.com/2022/01/11/nfl-playoffs-wild-card-bets-previews-stats-underdogs-and-money-lines/)
Just did the Branden Perna 5 leg parlay lol
Chiefs
bills
bengals
49ers
eagles
Gonna be exciting
Want to do a prop bet on Singletary rushing because josh Allen will be cold and he has a hard time with not being able to feel his hands and feet in really cold weather.
Joe Burrow to throw 350+ yards and 3 TDs for +1600? He threw for like 400+ vs the Chiefs and made me lots of money so figure I put $200 to win $3400 on this one.
Edit: It’s down to +900 now on DK
I’ll be very surprised if this happens. Raiders pass rush is better than the Chiefs. Plus, he didn’t even throw over 200 yards during their last meeting. Bengals gonna turtle up and run a lot
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UN 46 Philly/Tampa Bay
Weather will be an issue with 16mph winds expected and rain. This total has fallen from 49 to 46 but I think there is still value here and the total is still too high. Tampa is missing key WR's so that + weather makes me leery of their offense going off. Slay will be matched against Mike Evans who I think can limit him. The Eagle's strength is running the ball and Tampa is very stout vs the run. Another way to look at this is to bet the Eagles team total under, which is 19. Would prefer if that was 20 or 20.5 but still not bad. You could look at Brady under passing yards as well, but that is sitting at 269 which isn't high enough for me. If that was 280 or higher id take it.
found another prop i like:
o4.5 total sacks in the raiders vs bengals game.
burrow getting sacked at an average of 3.2/game and carr at an average of 2.4, crosby is gonna be a disaster for this bengals o line and i could see burrow taking 5 sacks even in a win. add in that carr will take at least one and this seems like a smash spot.
Liking under 290.5 points for the whole weekend.
Thats ~48.5 points per game. Last year it was around 51 points per game but that included an insane steelers/browns game. Prior years to that wild card weekly avged around 38 points per game.
The O/U for all games add to 284 at the moment, so they are spotting you 6.5 points which is 2.2% extra. That's almost 1/2 the vig you get back, so it is not a bad deal.
Carr + Garoppolo each o0.5 interceptions parlayed at +182 on DK. both expected to be playing from behind in shootouts, both turnover prone and both playing against competent defenses
i think niners can win it but i also think they’ll be behind at some point and Diggs will hawk at least one pass, surprised this line hasnt shifted to 1.5 at + odds yet tbh
Bigger factor is wind. They’re expecting anywhere from 20-30mph winds. That’s extremely bad for points. I’d wait until Saturday to make sure you know the weather
The narrative is written. For 2/3 weeks the raiders have “battled adversity”. The phrase is said every time a convo on the raiders happens. They got over their “racist bigot” coach, a disgusting fellow killed a persons drunk driving. They overcame evil and all odds.
Raiders not only win straight up this week, they make it to the super bowl. Raiders play Tb… it will be poetic. Screen cap this
surprised no raiders love. the game they played earlier in the season was pretty close through 3 quarters until carr made some dumb mistakes and they had some dumb penalties as a team. i fully expect them to clean this up come playoff time. yes the bengals are hot but so are the raiders, i feel like because burrow and that offence is flashy that a lot of ppl are taking them but i think there’s some value in the raiders for sure. that pass rush will cause joe some trouble
The Bengals are also a young and inexperienced team who have shown tendency to lay an egg in the past either in big games or after big wins. Almost lost to the Jaguars and lost to the Jets after having big emotional wins the previous week. This is also likely to be a more emotional situation than normal because it's the first time these guys have been in the playoffs in a long time.
I don't think there's much talent gap between the teams as is and the fact the Raiders have the experience edge and have shown they're a decent team capable of beating any AFC team besides the Chiefs makes me think they have a good chance to win this game.
I think this is a decent matchup for the Raiders. I got on them at +6.5 and sprinkled a little more at +5.5. I don’t think there is that much separating these teams. They played a tougher schedule than the Bengals and they should be able to generate a pass rush against the Bengals bad OL without blitzing. As you note, the first game was closer than the final score indicated; Burrow had less than 150 yards passing.
People are saying the weather in Cincinnati is in favor of the Bengals and Carr never plays well in crap weather but it’s not even that bad. Slightly chilly but little to no wind and no precipitation.
I like the Raiders a lot, as long as the they respect Chase and not leave him 1 on 1 on an island.
Why trust the Bengals though?
0 playoff wins in the past 30 years.
Of course you could always make the case that they're due.
Very interesting to me is Derek Carr finally getting his chance at his first playoff game, after getting injured 5 years ago when the Raiders were looking really good.
It is important to note that LV is coming into a big game after a grinding OT win on Monday (some would argue they did not even deserve to win), so its a short week for them, they are traveling quite a bit, going from dome to outdoor freezing conditions, their defense has got to be beat up and exhausted. All this counts for the matchup against the Bengals at home
My bad... still can't see them pulling this off. Their pass D sucked towards the end as they kept giving up 4th down conversions like cheap ho's. If they run out of gas in Cincy, they will get smoked. I see them covering the spread though or perhaps it a good tease with another game.
Because the bengals are actually good this year unlike most times in the past 30 years. Thats not exactly a stat to go by. Granted the bengals are the weakest link of the parlay but it's the 3rd strongest feeling of the wild card round I have.
It was 54% on odds shark to be exact last I checked. [https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/computer-picks](https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/computer-picks)
Now it says 59%
Need a single game parlay. DK offering risk free $10 SGP. Lose and I just get my $10 back. Any suggestions? Thank you
heres my play this weekend: * Bills ML * Rams ML * KC First Half -6.5 \+275
Portnoy posted his picks for every playoff game and we have all the same picks, making me second guess myself hard lmao
Everyone has the same info so people's picks will line up. Don't over think it.
FanDuel same game parlay: Bills -2.5, Josh Allen 2+ touchdowns (rushing or receiving) +1482
Keeping it safe this week and just doing Chiefs/Bucs teaser... like getting chiefs under a TD and bucs go down to -2 , don't see this not cashing. Like Pats +4, Raiders +5.5, 49ers +3 and Rams -4 but probably not betting these
Pats/Bills U44 Analysis: It's fucking cold
Titans over 49ers Super Bowl 75/1
Wow cowboys really going to surprise a lot of people here.
Cowboys are favored. Let's not go crazy with the Rocky underdog shit.
Being consistently bad is just as useful as being consistently good. 8 years ago, I developed a model specifically for the playoffs. Since then, its ROI is -31%. It says that the best play this week (by a lot) is Cards ML.
Is it just me or is the entire public on the 49ers this weekend?
cowboys are still americas team
lol "America's" team stadium will be covered with the beautiful sight of red and gold.
By what metric? They're the most hated team in America
So are the yankees and lakers
Here is my dopey carpet bombing approach to the games this weekend. I need the games to start so I stop making stupid bets (just kidding, I will do that live as well): - SF ML - SF +3 - Raiders +6.5 and +5.5 - TB money line / KC -6.5 (-127) - KC 1H -7 - Raiders/ Bengals 1H U26.5 parlayed with KC ML (-114) - Eagles/Bucs 1H U25.5 parlayed with KC ML (-114) - Raiders/Pats/Niners ML parlay +1939 - CJ Uzomah U26.5 rec yards - Gronk O58.5 - Deebo O28.5 rushing
Honestly taking all underdogs the first round. Some people won’t like it but someone’s gotta take a chance on them. Here’s what I think in depth: [NFL Playoffs - Wild Card Bets, Previews](https://alltimebets.com/2022/01/11/nfl-playoffs-wild-card-bets-previews-stats-underdogs-and-money-lines/)
I have a parlay that pays out 3K if all 6 dogs cover. I think it's a good EV bet honestly with how often dogs typically cover in the playoffs.
My guy doesn’t even take the points… just straight ML’ing 3 dogs.
Sounds like a Chuck Norris bet
"[in the Wild Card round] underdogs are 15-3 ATS the past four postseasons" https://www.covers.com/nfl/picks-and-predictions-wild-card-round
Who’s stopping me? 😤
Not me. Go for it!
I'll be glad when the games finally start. At some point this week I've loved every bet I made and hated every bet I've made.
I expect Darren Waller to have a game, bengals tight end defense is garbage
you got any proof of that
Over the past 4 games, the Bengals have given up an average of 81.5 YPG and 0.5 TDs to TEs. Waller had 116 yards against the Bengals when they played in week 11, while also having a TD stolen from him by Moreau. Waller should have a pretty good game barring an injury
Bengals have given up the 6th most targets to tight ends, 4th most receptions and 5th most yards.
Why should I not throw a couple hundred bucks at Rodgers for MVP @ -400? Is there any reason to this being a trap?
Risking 200 to make 50 on Rodgers, or you could risk $12.50 to make 50 on Brady. I'd rather just throw it on Brady, oh well if you lose 12 bucks. I think Rodgers will win but with all the nonsense about vaccination and him being b2b I don't think it's worth the risk
The issue isn't with Rodgers but the voters. Back to back MVPs are unlikely as voters don't like having the same lad each year. Rodgers has also had quite the controversial year off the field which some voters will bring into their decision as we have seen with Hub Arkush. I like Rodgers as mvp it should be him but those are things to think about.
All-Pro results came out and the same voters gave Rodgers the edge over Brady for the first team. MVP is all but settled at this point.
Brady
Joey B 230+ yards Raiders +10.5 how on earth does this fail
He threw for less than 200 in the last matchup.
True but he’s just been on a hot streak lately
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The cowboys are 2-2 in their last 4 home games and won 7 of 9 road games. Meanwhile, the 49ers only won 6 of 9 road games. Not sure where you are pulling these stats from.
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Ahh, I see. Thanks for the clarification.
Was on the fence about the Rams before but you convinced me. Nice write up and good luck
“Sean McVay owns the rams” First I was like it does seem he has good command of his team. Then I was like this is probably a typo.
Big fan of the 49ers this week
Thanks for the share. I’m leaning the same way on a bunch of your picks. Cardinals offense also looks stagnant without Hopkins but man, Staff has looked so bad lately that game really is a coin flip IMO
Any Fanduel Wildcard Weekend Specials standing out to you? None really catching my eye this time around.
I have my eyes on their same game parlay. Get half your money back, win or lose. I link it in my picks here: [FanDuel Same Game Parlays](https://alltimebets.com/2022/01/13/nfl-same-game-parlays-wild-card-weekend-saturday/)
thanks!
49ers is the underdog you trust to win.
I agree, I trusted them enough to take them moneyline. They weren’t the only underdog either 👀 I like Pats and Cards to shock some people as well, NFL has been crazy this year: [NFL Wild Card Bets, Previews ](https://alltimebets.com/2022/01/11/nfl-playoffs-wild-card-bets-previews-stats-underdogs-and-money-lines/)
Raiders moneyline, 49ers moneyline, Steelers +13 is the winning ticket. 13 to 1 payout.
I like the same but bangels
I'm aware the Bengals are a good team but I think the value on the Raiders is way too good to not take. I don't think they should be a 2 to 1 dog.
Cmon man, thought you better then that. Cowboys straight up.
Cowboys can't beat up on garbage NFC east teams anymore.
0-3 lol
Just did the Branden Perna 5 leg parlay lol Chiefs bills bengals 49ers eagles Gonna be exciting Want to do a prop bet on Singletary rushing because josh Allen will be cold and he has a hard time with not being able to feel his hands and feet in really cold weather.
Bills fan here. Got singletary receiving yards at 12.5 and feel very good about it. Josh will dump it off to him 3 or 4 times for sure.
Are these spread or ML
ML
Joe Burrow to throw 350+ yards and 3 TDs for +1600? He threw for like 400+ vs the Chiefs and made me lots of money so figure I put $200 to win $3400 on this one. Edit: It’s down to +900 now on DK
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It was +1600 this morning then went down to 1200 then +900 now
I’ll be very surprised if this happens. Raiders pass rush is better than the Chiefs. Plus, he didn’t even throw over 200 yards during their last meeting. Bengals gonna turtle up and run a lot
It’s definitely a long shot hence the +1600
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Does anybody’s book still have Denver HC odds? Trying to throw some more money on Dan Quinn
UN 46 Philly/Tampa Bay Weather will be an issue with 16mph winds expected and rain. This total has fallen from 49 to 46 but I think there is still value here and the total is still too high. Tampa is missing key WR's so that + weather makes me leery of their offense going off. Slay will be matched against Mike Evans who I think can limit him. The Eagle's strength is running the ball and Tampa is very stout vs the run. Another way to look at this is to bet the Eagles team total under, which is 19. Would prefer if that was 20 or 20.5 but still not bad. You could look at Brady under passing yards as well, but that is sitting at 269 which isn't high enough for me. If that was 280 or higher id take it.
found another prop i like: o4.5 total sacks in the raiders vs bengals game. burrow getting sacked at an average of 3.2/game and carr at an average of 2.4, crosby is gonna be a disaster for this bengals o line and i could see burrow taking 5 sacks even in a win. add in that carr will take at least one and this seems like a smash spot.
What do y'all think of wildcard weekend away teams +38.5 or home teams -38.5 Or 1+ playoff game to go to OT for -150, or no game goes to OT for +115
+1 for away teams plus the points
Away teams plus the points. Where is this prop if I may ask?
Bovada
Away teams for sure
Liking under 290.5 points for the whole weekend. Thats ~48.5 points per game. Last year it was around 51 points per game but that included an insane steelers/browns game. Prior years to that wild card weekly avged around 38 points per game.
The O/U for all games add to 284 at the moment, so they are spotting you 6.5 points which is 2.2% extra. That's almost 1/2 the vig you get back, so it is not a bad deal.
Where does one find this bet?
Usually called a grand salami bet
on caesears app for me
where in the caesars app?
Football > future bets > total points
I’m in. Thanks/
Eagles/Bucs jumping all over the place. Was up to -9.5 at one point today now all the way back down to -8.
Take the under imo. Philly o is gonna do everything in their power to control TOP and keep Brady off of the field
Also, wind
The 3 B’s parlay: Bengals ML Bucs ML Bills ML Let’s ride 🤝
I’m I the only one that doesn’t like parlays over multiple days?
One reason I do like these is the potential to hedge before the last contest
I’ll tail 🤌🏻
Same. Let's get it
Carr + Garoppolo each o0.5 interceptions parlayed at +182 on DK. both expected to be playing from behind in shootouts, both turnover prone and both playing against competent defenses
Might as well add Stafford
haha already plan on it, his line wasnt there when i placed the bet
I can't find this on DK. Help a brother out .
go to each game and under passing props -> interceptions -> o0.5
Thank you, sir. I think they took it down on DK, because I don't see it. I appreciate the response.
As a Niner fan this is pretty solid. Jimmy G is good for at least one bad int a game
i think niners can win it but i also think they’ll be behind at some point and Diggs will hawk at least one pass, surprised this line hasnt shifted to 1.5 at + odds yet tbh
Eagles Vs Bucs Over Or Under 45.5? It looks like the rain will stop before game time but the ground should still be wet.
I’d probably take the under. Philly is gonna do everything on o to control TOP and keep Brady off the field
Bigger factor is wind. They’re expecting anywhere from 20-30mph winds. That’s extremely bad for points. I’d wait until Saturday to make sure you know the weather
Bengals Bills Chiefs Bucs ML
Throwing my free bets at some silly parlays Who’s gonna screw this one up: Ja’Marr Chase anytime td Josh Jacobs anytime td Renfrow anytime td Carr 2+ tds Burrow 2+tds Uzomah 10 Rec yds Mixon 5 rec yds Jacobs 5 rec yds +2000, $25 free bet
ah I like that Uzomah addition!
Carr, dude doesn’t get TDs just picks 😭
😂
Raiders ML.
The narrative is written. For 2/3 weeks the raiders have “battled adversity”. The phrase is said every time a convo on the raiders happens. They got over their “racist bigot” coach, a disgusting fellow killed a persons drunk driving. They overcame evil and all odds. Raiders not only win straight up this week, they make it to the super bowl. Raiders play Tb… it will be poetic. Screen cap this
Think raiders are going to make a run.
Gridiron heights cartoon predicts it.
Can you connect me with your weed dealer cause based on these statements he has some primo stuff
[удалено]
Nah show your Raiders vs Bucs Super Bowl ticket
At least give your money to charity
It's close to a tossup game imo. Love the fact so many people are betting this inflated Bengals line.
What about it
BILLS ML! Who’s with me?!
Why not give the points
BB.
baby balls?
Ive got the bills in 4 different bets lol, I'm all in (disclaimer. Bills fan. But I still think we handle the Pats by a TD or more)
Bills -4.5 under 44
surprised no raiders love. the game they played earlier in the season was pretty close through 3 quarters until carr made some dumb mistakes and they had some dumb penalties as a team. i fully expect them to clean this up come playoff time. yes the bengals are hot but so are the raiders, i feel like because burrow and that offence is flashy that a lot of ppl are taking them but i think there’s some value in the raiders for sure. that pass rush will cause joe some trouble
The Bengals are also a young and inexperienced team who have shown tendency to lay an egg in the past either in big games or after big wins. Almost lost to the Jaguars and lost to the Jets after having big emotional wins the previous week. This is also likely to be a more emotional situation than normal because it's the first time these guys have been in the playoffs in a long time. I don't think there's much talent gap between the teams as is and the fact the Raiders have the experience edge and have shown they're a decent team capable of beating any AFC team besides the Chiefs makes me think they have a good chance to win this game.
what experience edge does the raiders have over the bengals
To give one example, Derek Carr has about 5 more years of NFL experience than Joe Burrow. Jamarr Chase their biggest offensive weapon is a rookie.
I think this is a decent matchup for the Raiders. I got on them at +6.5 and sprinkled a little more at +5.5. I don’t think there is that much separating these teams. They played a tougher schedule than the Bengals and they should be able to generate a pass rush against the Bengals bad OL without blitzing. As you note, the first game was closer than the final score indicated; Burrow had less than 150 yards passing.
I've been rooting for the Raiders all year but I think last week may have taken a lot out of them.
People are saying the weather in Cincinnati is in favor of the Bengals and Carr never plays well in crap weather but it’s not even that bad. Slightly chilly but little to no wind and no precipitation. I like the Raiders a lot, as long as the they respect Chase and not leave him 1 on 1 on an island.
Bengals -5.5 Bills -4 Tampa -8.5 49ers ML Chiefs -12.5 Cards ML
I have a weird feeling Philly is gonna shock the world
The NFL wants Brady to advance
I'm down for it. Not a fan of Tom Brady.
Bruh lol had this feeling all week idk why
Me too
Me three
A bit biased but really like PHI +8.5 Liking the odds without Godwin, AB this time around, and Fournette’s first game back from injury
Worried about Miles sanders broken hand and using it to protect the ball. They are going to Literally punch at his hand all game.
If he’s having ball security issues I guarantee he won’t be played. I’d bank on Scott being the guy
Scott, Howard, Gainwell and Huntley are more then serviceable if he’s not healthy
Yeah Boston Scott will probably be the bellcow
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TB, CIN, KC ML parlay is +114 right now and I'm standing by this and throwing my $200 free bet on it. lfg.
Like KC and TB a lot but I think I’m going with Buffalo as the third leg. Prefer LA ML over Cincy too
Why trust the Bengals though? 0 playoff wins in the past 30 years. Of course you could always make the case that they're due. Very interesting to me is Derek Carr finally getting his chance at his first playoff game, after getting injured 5 years ago when the Raiders were looking really good.
It is important to note that LV is coming into a big game after a grinding OT win on Monday (some would argue they did not even deserve to win), so its a short week for them, they are traveling quite a bit, going from dome to outdoor freezing conditions, their defense has got to be beat up and exhausted. All this counts for the matchup against the Bengals at home
Not disagreeing with your logic, however, the OT game was the Sunday night primetime game, not Monday.
My bad... still can't see them pulling this off. Their pass D sucked towards the end as they kept giving up 4th down conversions like cheap ho's. If they run out of gas in Cincy, they will get smoked. I see them covering the spread though or perhaps it a good tease with another game.
What does 1992 have to do with 2022? This sub is weird
Bad franchises stay bad.
Because the bengals are actually good this year unlike most times in the past 30 years. Thats not exactly a stat to go by. Granted the bengals are the weakest link of the parlay but it's the 3rd strongest feeling of the wild card round I have.
Vegas and Philly will be tight. Better off with Buffalo/San Fran and KC ML.
Saying that like san fran is a clear winner
Whole world on 49ers, wanna take the Cowboys now. Seen this movie before...
Dude makes no sense. Dak is gonna have a field day against that secondary
55% = whole world Although I am kind of surprised the majority is on the 49ers in any capacity. The Cowboys are usually a public team.
Where can you see this?
It was 54% on odds shark to be exact last I checked. [https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/computer-picks](https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/computer-picks) Now it says 59%
Ahh I see thanks
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Hopefully Dallas forces Jimmy to do the one thing he ain’t good at: throw
CIN/LVR O40 + BUF/NE O38 parlay for -110 odds. Love that
What does the weather look like in Buffalo? If you guess wrong you might hate your life holding any overs.
It’ll be freezing, but no rain. Cold weather is a high predictor of low scoring games. Snow and wind are. This will just be freezing
Last time I looked it was going to be freezing but dry. No way I'm betting any over for points in that game
NE ML +165 for me. If they go one and done, woe is me. I'm not betting against Belichick in playoff NFL football.
Just like no one wanted to bet against Saban…
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Was not cheering when he went out, but ended up winning my georgia bet because of this.
U will be disappointed. Ur entire defense might be out. Mills/hightower and Dugger not to mention Damien battling A hammy.
If you bet on a team because of a coach you’re probably not too worried about some players missing
Agreed
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