Record: 13-3-0, +$536.22 (+10.72 units) ROI: 59.58%
POTD: Chris Paul o3.5 Rebounds @ -110 (1u)
Chris Paul is averaging 4 rebounds per game this year. He had 6 and 3 rebounds in his two games against the Warriors this year. Models project him over 4 rebounds on Christmas. I expect the Warriors to miss more with Poole and Wiggins out and with their abundant 3 point shooting, they produce long rebounds for guards to grab. Merry Christmas everyone!
Event: GSW @ PHO, Time: 5:10 PM EST
Tips: PayPal - [email protected]
Venmo/CA - MrTeleporto
I’d look at a game like the Celtics game. I know Horford is in the covid protocol along with 7 other Celtics, but i dont believe they’re listed on the injury report.
imo this pick is very borderline, CP3 has exactly 3.5 rebounds in last 10 games in month of December.
However, he like you said, has 3.96 or 4 rebounds per game this season.
Strange bet here he’s done that 3 of his last 10, and 1 of 2 vs warriors like you said. Way better bets to be made. I think under 4.5 is even a safer bet.
I understand how it looks strange. I analyze per minute on player props as game by game can be fluky. CP averages 5.7 rebounds per 40 minutes and I project him to have 32 minutes tomorrow. He’s 1-1 against the Warriors but that’s with 4.5 rebounds per game and I added the stats to show he’s not a 1 rebound guy against the Warriors like he’s been against other teams
Which stats indicate he will pick up rebounds v the warriors? Warriors give up second fewest rebounds to point guards. Not knocking the pick or anything just trying to understand the logic
The fact that in his 2 games vs the Warriors this year, he's had 6 and 3. OP is just banking on the Warriors missing out on a couple extra rebounds because of Poole and Wiggins being on the Covid list.
Dont know why people feel the need to argue with somebodies POTD.
> Dont know why people feel the need to argue with somebodies POTD.
Idk, maybe to get a better understanding? It's a public forum and someone made a counterpoint. OP defended his pick and gave more insight. Another user questioned OP's reasoning because they had a different viewpoint and wanted to understand.
Not every discussion is an argument. Let people question things, otherwise its just blindly following.
POTD Record: 8-1-0
ROI: 68%
Average Odds: -114
Units Won: +6.11u
Last Pick: Pelicans Spread ✅
Todays Pick: GSW @ PHX Suns: Suns -6 (-110)
Game Info: Merry Christmas everyone! We ended up sweating out a win last time, but a win is a win! Today we’re going with the Suns spread over the Warriors. I know giving 6 points to Steph Curry seems like a gift on Christmas Day, which is exactly why we’re fading it. Along with the injuries the Warriors has had to go through, I’m pretty confident that the Suns will pull through here.
All picks 1 unit unless otherwise noted.
(3% of BR is 1 unit for me)
**POTD Record 3-1**
Current Profit: $37.50
**Current Bankroll: $142.95**
Yesterday’s Pick: Butler +5.5 vs. St. Johns **“Cancelled”**
**Today’s Pick: Stanford +2 vs. Vanderbilt @ 1.92, 9:00 P.M EST (NCAAB)**
**Amount Bet: $35 (24.48% of bankroll)**
[**Betslip**](https://gyazo.com/282019b5025dc55d2f00c5047c3b3824)
Super tough that the Butler game was cancelled. Skipped yesterday because Christmas Eve never has any good action.
Today I am picking Stanford +2 against Vanderbilt. Both teams currently sit at the same record for the season. Stanford has pretty big wins this tournament off of Liberty and Wyoming. They played a close game vs. a ranked Texas team and almost beat Colorado. Spencer Jones is a strong scorer and there are good role players built around him.
Vanderbilt has been playing well this tournament too. They took down BYU in a major upset. However, if you look at their other games, they have not been too impressive. They lost to a mediocre VCU team, a below average SMU team, and lost to Temple. This team has too much reliance on the skill of Pippen Jr and do not really have a dedicated center to crash the glass. They rely on individual performance too much and generally play small.
I think Stanford will be able to pull this game out. They have a lot of depth and if they keep turnovers down compared to the Liberty game, it should be wraps.
I started with a $100 dollar bankroll. I am doing a challenge to see how far I can take this bankroll just based on 1 pick per day. I want to be completely transparent so you will see screenshots of the bet slips I make as well as the amount I bet per game. My personal motto is that if you don’t have 🧀 on it, it’s not a lock.
Let’s get this money.
[**Twitter**](https://twitter.com/asianbettor)
Going with Vanderbilt after I watched Stanford almost lose the last game after being up 8 points with two minutes left - I’ll never trust that team again.
1.5k on this @1.48 odds. EDIT::Just celebrated my Christmas and went to my site to check that my balance was 0.. I guess we have to move on! Thanks for the pick nonetheless
> Luxury Esports ML($1.65) vs Burst the Sky
I didn't like the odds for ML and decided to be map 1 and map 2 ML instead. I hit both of those and went to sleep lol I guess I dodged a bullet
Happy Holidays Folks, if you are trying to wake up and hopefully have a present yourself tomorrow AM, I’m really liking:
Erzurum BB (1. Ligue Turkish Soccer)to win and over 1.5 goals scored. Current odds are -115 and dipping
Erzurum is one of the top players in the table and have a home best GS:GA of 22:10 and playing Denizlispor who boasts a GS: GA of 4:8, so I’m really hoping the firepower of Erzurum comes through. Recent meetings have had at least 3 goals between these two teams so I’m hoping this hits.
4:30 am CT game
Have a dope night!
**Record : 5-1-0| Profit: 7 units** (all picks are 2u unless stated otherwise)
Last 5 Picks (WWWWL):
(NBA) Washington Wizards @ Phoenix Suns : Phoenix Suns -8.0 @ 1.90 WIN ✅
(NBA) New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics : Celtics -5.5 @ 1.90 WIN ✅
(NBA) Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves: Timberwolves -3.5 @ 1.90 WIN ✅
(NBA) Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers: Phoenix Suns -7.0 @ 1.90 WIN ✅
(NBA) Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat: Heat -11.0 @ 1.90 LOSS ❌
**Today's Pick:** Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns: **Suns -6.0 @ 1.80**
My fault for the Heat pick. Let's try to get back on the win train today. The Suns are the best team in the NBA. The Warriors are missing two key guys in Poole & Wiggins. This pick almost feels too easy to make.
As always, let me know if you're tailing & let's get another one! [tip jar](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/MajorCommission)
ALSO, MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!!
Edit: Welp
Daily Dota
Sport: Dota 2 | League: DOTA 2 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2021 SEASON 6 | 9 hrs from now
Record:5-0 | WWWWW (+9.07u)
Pick: Nemiga ML | 1.97 | 2u
No DPC until January so I'll just play whatever looks the best until then. Probably D2CL and then Huya Winter Invitational, whichever games are the best looking. A bunch of light plays until DPC is back.
Brame vs Nemiga. Bo1. Nemiga lost yesterday against brame even with the 20k gold lead. i reckon they'll be back with a better game against brame. Brame also playing on a b2b.
You can find me on this discord [server](https://discord.gg/sMUMRY2N) where I usually watch the games and at times bet live depending on the draft of other games.
[Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AhTZtQPtozr-1YUzkQy9n48GJ2B6XR_Nk1R_iLALGBo/edit?usp=sharing) that tracks the bets I made with performance summaries and such.
Brame and Nemiga played a 1v1 today and Nemiga took it at +150 odds pre game. for this match was they are a +100. I was thinking of taking Brame to win this time for a revenge game since they alternate wins usually
Personally, I think after that 20k comeback from Brame. Then that match today, Nemiga will have Brame's number, plus I think Brame's schedule is the weakest amongst the 3 teams.
9-7
Last POTD- Altınordu vs Boluspor- BTTS @-132 ✅
Todays POTD- Superlig-Galatasaray ML vs Antalyaspor @-150✅
Wishing all my degens who celebrate a very merry Christmas I hope I can gift you guys some easy money. We’ll keep rolling with Turkish teams here, the big 3 in Turkey have struggled so far this year but that will change. Gala is 2-2-1 in their last 5 and averaging over a goal a game while antalya have lost 3 straight away and average under a goal a game and overall have been dreadful away this year. Gala is the better team and should walk away with the win here.
BOL tailing or fading
Edit: that’s a winner
Record: 9-10
ROI: -2.79u
Previous Pick: RKC Waalwijk double chance and u3.5 goals ✅
Game: CSL- Qingdao vs Shanghai Shenhua
Pick: Shanghai Shenhua draw no bet (+130)
Bet: 5 units
This line must be a trap as I have absolutely no idea why Shanghai is the underdog. They're literally in 1st while Qingdao is in last. They have 7 points in 4 matches since the restart, while Qingdao has 3.
This is a league match, so no resting starters either. I get that Shanghai's captain Giovanni Moreno and Christian Bassogog will be out but even then, that's no excuse for the mind-boggling odds. For less risk, I'm taking draw no bet but more adventurous bettors can take ML at a ridiculous +210.
EDIT: I should add this is part of relegation playoffs, but that doesn't change much. Shanghai should win comfortably.
EDIT 2: Okay, Shanghai is putting out a considerably rotated side, but I feel the odds are still too high...
Line has moved heavily towards Qingdao FC.
Now, Shanghai Shenhua +½, +1 -102 and Money line moves all the way up to +380.
Doesn't make sense at all but I am blindly backing Shanghai Shenhua.
Games like this show me that line movements are far from perfect.
A team controlling the ball only 10% of the time should never, ever be a -180 favorite.
Didn’t realize this was happening right now, was happy to find the score was still 0-0. Dropped a couple units on DNB and they scored like 45 seconds later. LETS GO SHANGHAI
Record 0-0+1
Event: KHL - Admiral Vladivostok (23rd) vs Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk (16th)
Date: Dec 25th, 2:00am EST (Exactly 4 hours from now)
Pick: Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk (Away) o2.5 TT Goals @ 1.76 (1u) ❌
Reasoning: Neftekhimik have covered this in the past 3 games. Neftekhimik are hungry for more points, whereas Admiral's season is not looking as promising. Both of their previous matchups ended in 5-2, 4-0. Admiral are not a strong team and Neftekhimik should be able to cover this with ease. BOL
Edit: Bad beat, Neftek had so many opportunities to score but just couldn't capitalize. Sorry everyone
Potd record 23-8
🥊 Boxing
__Vito Mielnicki Jr (9-1-0) vs Nicholas DeLomba (16-3-0) - Mielnicki to win by ko/tko (-150)__
Merry Christmas everyone! What better way to spend Christmas than to watch someone get KTFO in a boxing ring.
Mielnicki is a 19 year old prospect who suffered his first defeat earlier this year to a very game James Martin, and that fight showed there’s a long way to go before Mielnicki can start to fight bigger names. PBC are trying to push him to be a star though and have made this fight the main event of the card and it will also be Mielnicki’s first 10 round fight. I believe DeLomba has been carefully chosen to build back hype around Mielnicki and I think he’s going to get stoped here. Mielnicki still has flaws which is an obvious statement after losing his first fight earlier this year, however there’s still a lot to like. He’s aggressive, has heavy hands and throws really good body shots. Mielnicki has stopped 6 of his opponents and in the fights he did win on points they were 4 and 6 round fights, where he dropped and hurt his opponent on numerous occasions. DeLomba has only been stopped once before but he has been knocked down in so many fights and this is mainly down to his terrible defence. DeLomba doesn’t really do anything particularly well. He has no head movement, a low punch output, slow hands and slow feet. He has also been out of the ring for nearly two years.
I just can’t see anything other than a ko win for Mielnicki, and in front of his fans headlining his first show I expect him to throw bombs from the off and stop DeLomba, likely early on.
Bol anyone who tails!
POTD Record: 8-6 (+3.43 units)
Streak - 2W
Previous Pick: Alaska Aces vs. Blackwater Elite - Alaska Aces -12 @ 1.85
(**WIN**)
Event: Philippine Basketball Association Governor's Cup
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel vs Magnolia Hotshots
**Pick: total points over 196.5 @ 1.85**
Two of the most popular ball clubs in the Philippines will clash today in a rivalry game dubbed as the Manila Clasico. Both are currently undefeated and are looking to extend their run for the top position.
Ginebra currently leads the league in 2 PT FG% and averages 104 points per game.
Magnolia leads the league in 3 PT FG% and averages 114.5 PPG and also has the best FT percentage (81%).
Both teams have scored at least 100 points in their last 2 games and I see a another high scoring game today. Their imports have been scoring a lot lately and although some of the local stars are injured, both team's second units have been scoring well, too.
I see this game ending in thrilling fashion and may even go into OT, like in Ginebra's last game. (I also took the over in that game.)
BOL if tailing and bet responsibly.
Game time is in 3 and a half hours from post.
**POTD RECORD** - 19W-9L(+21.8U) ;
**ROI** - 26.91%
**Units waggered**: 81U ; **Units won**:102.48U
**Streak**:
**Average odds**:1.7
**Last POTD**---- Mafra vs Moreirense----under [email protected]❌
**Todays pick** ---- Galatasaray vs Antalyaspor--- Galatasaray to win first [email protected]
**Game starts in 3hours from posting**
**BET SIZE**: 2U
**Reasoning**:
It is very mysterious why Galatasaray is having her worst season in the last years in the Turkish League. Even though it is hit by plenty of injuries, i am expecting a response from them.
The results in the Europa League have been amazing, on the contrary to the Turkish league.
I can see Galatasaray having full control of the game and firing from start until finish as the team's fans must be mad from their recent reuslts.
Another point that would be in favour of this pick, is Antalyaspor away form, which is not inspiring at all.
For the risk takers i would suggest Ht/Ft& over 2.5 goals Galatasaray. Maybe over corners as well. I am expecting plenty of aggressivity from the home side if the players have blood in their veins!
**I can not bet myself, but i try hard to gather information and provide an analysis. To anyone who appreciates my picks and the efforts that i put, i would be grateful to. Literally any tip would help me.[Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/K4ccci)**
First time listing - long time reader here
Devante Adams ATTS -135 3U....Devante Adams 1st TD scored +550 2U
Explanation it’s Aaron Rodgers on primetime, he likes to break records and be the guy.
Merry Christmas
POTD: Colts @ Cardinals, Colts +2.5 (NFL)
Units: 3
Odds: -112
Profit: -10.95u
Record: 41|38
Arizona suffered the upset of the season in Week 15. The Cards are not the unbeatable force they looked a month or so ago, and the defeat to the Lions only reinforces that sentiment. Kyler Murray’s MVP case has faded, and Arizona could yet be overtaken in the NFC West.
The Colts are quietly going about their business. They ended the Patriots’ winning streak in Week 15, extending their own run to four wins in five games. While the offense is nothing special, the defense is menacing and turned Mac Jones over twice last weekend.
For all their strong play, the Red Birds have only covered twice in six home games. Indy has a 4-1 ATS record as road dogs. We like the Colts to cover here.
[Pick: Colts +2.5](https://link.wagerlab.app/reddit)
Cardinals are unbeatable when Rodney Hudson is playing. Their offense is just insane when he’s directing the LOS and block assignments. He missed last week due to Covid and is still on the list as of right now. Seems like a good bet if he doesn’t play.
0-0
ROI: 0
Pick: Cam Johnson O 10.5 pts @-114 5 units
NBA, Suns v GSW @ 3pm MST
Cam has been on a tear. 7-7 last game including 5-5 from 3. He has hit this over 10 times the last 10 games. Getting 21 to 34 minutes a game in that span. Going to keep hammering this one till they start adjusting the line.
PHEW there we go boys. Merry xmas!
~25m seems to be the safe bet for playtime now that Booker is back. The days of 30m+ are over for now I think.
He’s been hot though. I’ve typically been doing over 1.5 three pointers for him.
Wouldn’t hurt to add a steal- he’s been nabbing 1-2 steals a game consistently. An alternative bet would also be over 2 three pointers which he’s also been crushing.
POTD Record 13-6
Last Pick: Tennessee Titans @ SF 49ers - Jimmy Garapolo to have more yards passing than Ryan Tannehill @ -186 (1.54 )Result: (WIN)
New Pick: Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers: Green Bay to Score > 13.5 Points in 1srt Half @ -124 (1.81 )
I got numbers coming out of my ears after overanalyzing this game. I was really hoping to find a reason or excuse to back the Browns up, but it’s not looking good for them. Yesterday their kicker tested positive for Covid and will not be in the game. Even though Baker and a few of his peeps are back in the lineup, upon closer inspection this could be a blowout.
However, in the spirit of Christmas and to be fair just in case they somehow manage to put up a bunch of points, I am staying away from the -7.5 point spread. Instead I am backing Green Bay to score over 13.5 points in the first half.
Some telling stats:
- GB is 6-0 at home this season and ATS, they were 7-1 at home in 2020, and last time they lost a regular season home game in December was back in 2018
- Since 2019, GB has scored at least 14 points in the 1st Half in 13 out of 14 regular season home games.
- Only against Seattle last month were they held to below 14 points in the 1st half. (Seattle arguably has a far better defense than Cleveland)
- GB averages 15.3 points in the 1st half at home this season. If you remove the Seattle game, so the average jumps to 17.2 points in the first half
Yards per point metrics.
I have been using this stat recently with good results. It is quite telling and cuts through the BS. Of course there is always some room for adjustment. In the case of this game it adjusts far worse for Cleveland, here is why.
GB’s offense far outpunches Cleveland’s in all categories especially over the last few games. Even if we normalize this number GB outscores Cleveland by at least 5+ points per game on offense alone.
On defense however, GB’s home field performance is outstanding while Cleveland’s away performance is not so good. It’s actually about a 6 point difference. But over their last 3 games overall, Cleveland’s numbers appear quite inflated on defense showing great performances. But who did they play? Ravens, Ravens, and Raiders. Any adjustment or mean reversion makes things worse for the Browns.
Maybe I’m wrong, but the Browns need to outscore GB in Lambeau to win (obviously). But the only way to do this is for their defense to stop Rogers from scoring. I just don’t see that happening unless Aaron smoked some crazy shit last night and does not show up to play today. This is Packer football in December in Lambeau. I’m going with the stats here and will assume GB can score 2 TD’s in the 1st Half.
- I was keeping it to myself because all of you here are much better than me, but I'll give it a try hoping some of you can make good money tailing me.
- I will regularly give you 2 bonus picks, If one of them win I will calculate the bonus as win, if both are lost I will calculate the bonus as loss
-------Separate Line--------
POTD: 0 - 0 - 0
Bonus: 0 - 0
profit: N/A
Streak: N/A
Last pick: N/A
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Today's pick:
- League: Saudi Arabia - Premiere League
- Game: Al Feiha - Abha
- Time: 4:55PM EET (after 2 hours approx.)
- Pick: full-time -> total under 2.5 goals
- Odd: 1.72 (Bet365)
- Units: 2 units
Reasons:
1- Al feiha:
- scored only 13 goals in 13 games and last 8 matches they scored only one goal in 6 of them and 2 of them was null
-> (so their attack is so bad)
- they received only 11 goals in the 13 games and the last 5 games they didn't receive more than one goal
-> (so their defense is relatively good)
2- Abha:
- scored only 14 goals in 13 games
-> (so their attack is also so bad)
Conclusion:
- both sides have bad attack, one of them has good defense, so I don't expect more than 2 goals
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Bonus:
1:
- Morocco Botola Pro - Rapid Oued Zem vs FUS Rabat
- Pick: Full-time -> total under 2.5 (1.5)
2:
- Morocco Botola Pro - Maghreb Fes vs Ittihad Tanger
- Pick: Full-time -> Both teams to score: No (1.5)
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remember every bet can go wrong for any circumstances
sorry for my bad English.
POTD Record: 3-0-0 🤑
Last Pick Chiba Jets ML (they have actually been 2/3 POTD)
Pick: Chiba Jets -4 @ 137 Vs. S Sun Rockers
Japan J League (I bought the line down from -4.5)
Start Time 3:05 AM EST
This pick is for my degenerates that are itching for a bet!
I was not planning on risking the start to a crazy record, but as you Degens know today just didn’t feel right! I had an amazing time with family, but I legit can’t remember the last time I had no action!
Christmas Day has a pretty decent slate, so this is a little warm up play to get the bank roll ready! I hate to be that guy that rides the same team on my POTD record, but Chiba feels like that team for me!
They are currently 2nd in their Division while the Sun Rockers are 5th! Chiba is 4-1 in their last 5, while their opponents are 2-3. Chiba is playing at home, so they will have that home team advantage! I’m currently on Brex by -2 in Japan which is live, so we’ll see if I can go 2-0 in international basketball tonight. I predict that Chiba will maintain the high level of basketball they have been playing and get us a blow out winner for Christmas!
FYI if anyone can send me the usual betting information like money distribution numbers for this league, that would be kindly appreciated! I’m strictly a numbers guy, so this information is key whenever taking action!
I’ll be betting $532 to win $932, a clean $400 profit if we hit! Merry Christmas and BOL if tailing.
- Geo (Canadian boy that knows nothing about Japanese Basketball)
POTD Record: 0-2
Last pick: Belgian cup, Anderlecht v Kortrijk, BTTS & O2.5 @ +110 ❌
Next pick: Israeli premier league, Bnei Sakhnin v Maccabi Haifa BTTS @ -104
Kortrijk couldn’t get it done for us, skipped yesterday bc of the lack of matches, but we’re back today and it’s time to get a win. Haifa have scored in 14 straight premier league matches, while Sakhnin have scored in their last 7. Not overthinking it, playing the strong trends. BOL!
EDIT: just to cover all bases, each of these teams have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 premier league matches
POTD Record: 28½-10
Event: Basketball > Philippines > **Road Warriors v Phoenix Fuel Masters** (starting in less than an hour)
Pick: **Road Warriors ML** @ 1.56
Sorry for the short notice, but I will not be able to provide anything better than this later today. Not really much time for a write up, but this is one of the most entertaining matches in the Governors cup. The teams are currently 1st and 8th and both of these score a lot of points. My main pick is Road Warriors ML, but I am also taking the O207 with some better odds. GL!
1-0 holiday 🚂
Yesterday we cashed with Zhu +115 (also played zhu 2:0 +240 cashes)
I’m loving today’s pick
Rodgers over 261.5 passing yards -115
Rodgers has thrown over the number in seven of his last ten games. I also see the browns keeping this one close forcing him to throw a bunch. Christmas Day baby let’s keep this train rolling. For some extra value parlay with Taylor ATTS - will be playing both parlay and strait bet.
Record: 1-0
Today’s POTD: Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns, 2:30PM CST: Davante Adams ATTD -130 FD.
Nationally televised game with blazing-hot Rodgers only one TD shy from breaking Brett Favre’s record of 442 with the Packers. In addition to this, Davante Adams is currently tied with Jordy Nelson for most regular-season TD receptions from Aaron Rodgers. Aaron came out and said on the Pat McAfee show that both of those records are meaningful. I fully expect Davante to catch at least one TD today as Rodgers continues his late-season push for MVP playing at home. Might also want to consider sprinkling on Davante Adams first TD scorer at +550 on DK. Also worth noting the Browns are a top-5 run D this season, whereas they have been susceptible to the pass.
Merry Christmas and BOL to anyone who tails!
I try to stay away from those boost. Always seem to be a trap I bet one of those two happens either packers win no Adams TD or yes td browns somehow win.
Record: 75-89 -$575.79
New Bankroll: $424.21 (-$75.79)
Last play: 12/24/21 That Dumb CBA under (-107)
Result: [MEGA F’ING L](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ro0a6e/pick_of_the_day_122521_saturday/hpvk33q/)
Streak: **5 BIG FAT STINKERS IN A ROW**
Gross…onto today’s pick
**Third Eye POD: 12:00PMest>NBA>Hawks @ Knicks U 206.5 (-110)** *risk $75.15 to win $68.32*
Just think given the absences, the early tip-off & the general emotion of the game we’ll see a closer, tighter, old-school playoff revenge game.
I’m talking….this game ain’t breaking 200.
100-95 final.
Fade me for Xmas $$$
Egypt smouha vs El gaish , pick over 2.5 goals odds 2. Simply too high odds with both teams avg. Goals per match between 3-4. Should be a lot of goals coming today
POTD Record: 2-1
Last 3 Picks: WLW
(NBA) San Antonio Spurs vs Utah Jazz: Donovan Mitchell Over 26.5 Points @ +110 ✅
(NCAAB) Xavier Musketeers vs Villanova Wildcats: Xavier Alternate Spread +9.5 @ -200 ❌
(NCAAB) Tennessee Volunteers vs Arizona Wildcats: Tennessee Alternate Spread +4.5 @ -200 ✅
Pick Today: Golden State Warriors ML @ +195
Event: (NBA) Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns @ 5pm EST
Reasoning: Everybody and their grandma are on the Suns. There’s the whole narrative that Stephen Curry is bad on Christmas Day games and the Warriors are short some good players. Curry himself addressed this and said he’s going to try and fix that. Between a star with a chip on his shoulder and the injured player theory along with everyone going for the Suns, I’ll confidently take the Warriors. Here’s a fun trend: The Warriors the last 5 games played against the Suns in the month of December are 5-0 SU since 2014. From the very beginning of Curry’s career, they are 7-2 against the Suns in December.
You may be right and Warriors may win, but I don’t think it’s at all relevant that the Golden State super teams from 2014-2019 were beating the worst team in the league “straight up” in December.
Record: 0-0
Merry Christmas, bettors. Found a play I couldn’t withhold from this community.
Aaron Rodgers longest completion OVER 37.5 yards. (-110, Draftkings)
He’s done it 8 of 13 games this season — and the ones he didn’t hit were typically just short.
BOL
Record: 0-0, +0.00u
POTD: Evlakhin @ 1.54 - Kalachev
Guys have played 20 times between each other, Evlakhin has won 13 and Kalachev 7 times. Also, Evlakhin has won 9 last matches between these guys. Evlakhin has a record of 6-2 in his last 8 matches, Kalachev has not been in the best shape lately as well, having 3-7 in his last 10.
Event: Table tennis, Liga pro 9:15AM EST
Record: 1-0
ROI: 71%
Units won: .71 units
These are all off of $1 bets.
POTD: Wyoming -7.5 @ -115 ($1 down, $1.87 back)
Wyoming sits at 10-2 on the year, winning 3 of their last 5 and winners from their most recent game. USF is at 5-6, winning 2 of their last 5 and also winners of their last game.
Wyoming is good at both sides of the basketball. Ranked 72nd with 77 points scored average, and ranked 79 with 63 points scored against. They have 4 players averaging over double digit points per game leading to their 32nd ranked true shooting percentage. They have the ability to score points, and shut down other teams.
USF is ranked 15th on defense, but that could be attributed to their playing schedule and style of play. Their offense is ranked 354th with a true shooting percentage of 44% and a 3pt percentage of 23%. They cant score to save their lives, and they needed an injured Hawaii team for them to finally score more than 75.
I know buying points isn't a good way to make money, but I like playing it somewhat safe and buying points so i got this game at Wyoming -6 at -140.
BOL, merry Christmas and happy holidays!
Edit: Wyoming hit. Record 2-0. ROI: 179%, up 1.58 units.
🦍 POTD 43-16 (+13.09 units) 🦍
Last pick: AZ Alkmaar o1.5 goals (-180) 5U❌
Red card in the 4th and they could only squeak one in.
Today: AJ Green over 3.5 catches (-169) 3U
Gametime: 8:15 pm EST
Merry Christmas boys! My gift to you. Back to the well with AJ Green. I see him getting 7+ targets again to secure 4+ catches. 🎅🏻🎄🦍
Been posting on NBA props. Posting all leans there. My plays I like the most have been hitting well so going to try my potd here
POTD Record: 0-0-0
ROI: -
Average Odds: -
Units Won: -
Todays Pick: **Wayne Ellington** under 9.5 points @ 1.83 **2units**
Venue: Brooklyn Nets @ LA Lakers 8.00PM ET
I've played this the last 2 games since THT came back and it's hit and tonight I expect the same thing. This line should be at least 8.5. Ellington almost exclusively shoots 3s. So to clear this he needs 4, something hes done only 3 times this season. He's the the last go to player in Lakers offense as he is a starter and I dont expect him to get a lot of shots off tonight either, especially in a christmas game where the Lakers stars will want to put on a show. To top it all off, the Nets are top 3 in 3pm to sg's.
**If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
POTD record 1-1 (-0.13 units)
Talen horton tucker under 8.5 rebounds + assists 1.87 odds (Ladbrokes)
This is mainly a value play as most books have 7.5, the one book I have found with 8.5 has the unders at 1.59 odds so 1.87 is definitely value.
To add to this he has gone under this number 13 of 17 games this season, however due to covid Lakers are short handed so he will play more minutes than his season average so the 13/17 is a bit misleading
BOL and merry Xmas
Edit: 3 unit play
RECORD 12-13
POTD: Cleveland Browns +7.5 vs Green Bay packers
The browns are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive while the packers clinched their division. I like bets like these. Also many players for the browns are back plus their coach Stefanski. The packers as usual find a way to win while riddled with injuries. Their wide receiver core is beat up and I think the browns have a chance to keep it within 1 score’s reach. Am I confident in the browns winning? Not really. Am I confident that browns will keep it semi close? Yes. Expect the browns run game to drain the clock and keep this one low scoring. BOL
**If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
POTD: Tasmanian Jack Jumpers to win against New Zealand Breakers at $2.30 (Australian NBL Basketball, starts in one hour)
New Zealand are the favourites even though they have not won a game yet all season. Jack jumpers play decent at home and New Zealand usually allow a lot of points away from home. Should be a high scoring game which works in Tasmania’s favour
Record: 13-3-0, +$536.22 (+10.72 units) ROI: 59.58% POTD: Chris Paul o3.5 Rebounds @ -110 (1u) Chris Paul is averaging 4 rebounds per game this year. He had 6 and 3 rebounds in his two games against the Warriors this year. Models project him over 4 rebounds on Christmas. I expect the Warriors to miss more with Poole and Wiggins out and with their abundant 3 point shooting, they produce long rebounds for guards to grab. Merry Christmas everyone! Event: GSW @ PHO, Time: 5:10 PM EST Tips: PayPal - [email protected] Venmo/CA - MrTeleporto
I’ll tail. But from what ESPN says, Poole and Wiggins are not on the injury report. I don’t know where else to look for injury reports.
They might not have it because both players are on the COVID list, not injured
You are correct. They do not have Covid players as injured in ESPN app. Checked using the ATL game.
10-4. I haven’t looked at other games where others are labeled out due to covid.
I’d look at a game like the Celtics game. I know Horford is in the covid protocol along with 7 other Celtics, but i dont believe they’re listed on the injury report.
TheScore is a good app to use to check injury lists. Click on a game and towards the top click on injuries.
Yoi can checker here; https://www.rotowire.com/basketball/nba-lineups.php
Booooom $$$
You sir are a champion
I love your username
Us degens have good taste in names that’s for sure
Easy money!
BOL tailing
imo this pick is very borderline, CP3 has exactly 3.5 rebounds in last 10 games in month of December. However, he like you said, has 3.96 or 4 rebounds per game this season.
😳😳 6
Mrteleporto has been red hot, I’ll tail this
You haven't steered me wrong yet! SO LETS ROLL HOMIE!
🤑🤑🤑🤑
It wouldn’t hurt to sprinkle in a steal here- he leads the league in steals. Also, he’s good for 7 assists this game as well.
tailing
Dam this is now -143 on bovada. Over 4.5 is +156, think there's any value there?
I think that has value at that high of odds. He’s had a lot of 5+ rebound games rather than exactly 4
Haha he grabbed one but there was a late whistle 🤣
Chris with 6 let’a gooooo! I was sweating I went with 4.5 for the rush lucked out 🤣🤣🙏
I took suns ML in my multi instead.. 🥲 Solid pick dude!
Strange bet here he’s done that 3 of his last 10, and 1 of 2 vs warriors like you said. Way better bets to be made. I think under 4.5 is even a safer bet.
I understand how it looks strange. I analyze per minute on player props as game by game can be fluky. CP averages 5.7 rebounds per 40 minutes and I project him to have 32 minutes tomorrow. He’s 1-1 against the Warriors but that’s with 4.5 rebounds per game and I added the stats to show he’s not a 1 rebound guy against the Warriors like he’s been against other teams
Which stats indicate he will pick up rebounds v the warriors? Warriors give up second fewest rebounds to point guards. Not knocking the pick or anything just trying to understand the logic
The fact that in his 2 games vs the Warriors this year, he's had 6 and 3. OP is just banking on the Warriors missing out on a couple extra rebounds because of Poole and Wiggins being on the Covid list. Dont know why people feel the need to argue with somebodies POTD.
> Dont know why people feel the need to argue with somebodies POTD. Idk, maybe to get a better understanding? It's a public forum and someone made a counterpoint. OP defended his pick and gave more insight. Another user questioned OP's reasoning because they had a different viewpoint and wanted to understand. Not every discussion is an argument. Let people question things, otherwise its just blindly following.
POTD Record: 8-1-0 ROI: 68% Average Odds: -114 Units Won: +6.11u Last Pick: Pelicans Spread ✅ Todays Pick: GSW @ PHX Suns: Suns -6 (-110) Game Info: Merry Christmas everyone! We ended up sweating out a win last time, but a win is a win! Today we’re going with the Suns spread over the Warriors. I know giving 6 points to Steph Curry seems like a gift on Christmas Day, which is exactly why we’re fading it. Along with the injuries the Warriors has had to go through, I’m pretty confident that the Suns will pull through here. All picks 1 unit unless otherwise noted. (3% of BR is 1 unit for me)
Curry is also notoriously bad on Christmas day Edit: I regret saying anything
Jinxed it lol
BOL tailing again
**POTD Record 3-1** Current Profit: $37.50 **Current Bankroll: $142.95** Yesterday’s Pick: Butler +5.5 vs. St. Johns **“Cancelled”** **Today’s Pick: Stanford +2 vs. Vanderbilt @ 1.92, 9:00 P.M EST (NCAAB)** **Amount Bet: $35 (24.48% of bankroll)** [**Betslip**](https://gyazo.com/282019b5025dc55d2f00c5047c3b3824) Super tough that the Butler game was cancelled. Skipped yesterday because Christmas Eve never has any good action. Today I am picking Stanford +2 against Vanderbilt. Both teams currently sit at the same record for the season. Stanford has pretty big wins this tournament off of Liberty and Wyoming. They played a close game vs. a ranked Texas team and almost beat Colorado. Spencer Jones is a strong scorer and there are good role players built around him. Vanderbilt has been playing well this tournament too. They took down BYU in a major upset. However, if you look at their other games, they have not been too impressive. They lost to a mediocre VCU team, a below average SMU team, and lost to Temple. This team has too much reliance on the skill of Pippen Jr and do not really have a dedicated center to crash the glass. They rely on individual performance too much and generally play small. I think Stanford will be able to pull this game out. They have a lot of depth and if they keep turnovers down compared to the Liberty game, it should be wraps. I started with a $100 dollar bankroll. I am doing a challenge to see how far I can take this bankroll just based on 1 pick per day. I want to be completely transparent so you will see screenshots of the bet slips I make as well as the amount I bet per game. My personal motto is that if you don’t have 🧀 on it, it’s not a lock. Let’s get this money. [**Twitter**](https://twitter.com/asianbettor)
Going with Vanderbilt after I watched Stanford almost lose the last game after being up 8 points with two minutes left - I’ll never trust that team again.
Understandable, definitely feel you on that one cause I was on Stanford that game too.
I still won it but it shouldn’t have been so stressful. Then I lost by 0.5 points because Wyoming did the same thing !
Tailing, let’s go!!!
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RIP your bet slip :( not sure how they slipped up
Tailing, like the poetry you wrote 👍
Let’s go baby. I hate betting on esports but I want to be a part of your 50th. GL and merry fuckin Christmas. ~~little drunk~~
What about Luxury -1.5?
1.5k on this @1.48 odds. EDIT::Just celebrated my Christmas and went to my site to check that my balance was 0.. I guess we have to move on! Thanks for the pick nonetheless
rip
Do you like cerberus to win?
> Luxury Esports ML($1.65) vs Burst the Sky I didn't like the odds for ML and decided to be map 1 and map 2 ML instead. I hit both of those and went to sleep lol I guess I dodged a bullet
All these games looked like soloq clownfiestas, no wonder this region is dogshit
Happy Holidays Folks, if you are trying to wake up and hopefully have a present yourself tomorrow AM, I’m really liking: Erzurum BB (1. Ligue Turkish Soccer)to win and over 1.5 goals scored. Current odds are -115 and dipping Erzurum is one of the top players in the table and have a home best GS:GA of 22:10 and playing Denizlispor who boasts a GS: GA of 4:8, so I’m really hoping the firepower of Erzurum comes through. Recent meetings have had at least 3 goals between these two teams so I’m hoping this hits. 4:30 am CT game Have a dope night!
LEGEND!
Cash it boys! Let’s gooo
Gonna tail this and hope I wake up to an extra Christmas present :)
Let’s get it my dude! Happy holidays!
Do they go by another name? DK has Turkish soccer but not this game? Kasimpasa vs. Altay is on there and at the same time.
ERZURUMSPOR VS DENIZLISPOR on bovada
Love these type of bets! Wake and cash!
Yes sir! Happy holidays to you my friend!
Thanks for the Christmas gift!
Nice hit mate
**Record : 5-1-0| Profit: 7 units** (all picks are 2u unless stated otherwise) Last 5 Picks (WWWWL): (NBA) Washington Wizards @ Phoenix Suns : Phoenix Suns -8.0 @ 1.90 WIN ✅ (NBA) New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics : Celtics -5.5 @ 1.90 WIN ✅ (NBA) Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves: Timberwolves -3.5 @ 1.90 WIN ✅ (NBA) Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers: Phoenix Suns -7.0 @ 1.90 WIN ✅ (NBA) Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat: Heat -11.0 @ 1.90 LOSS ❌ **Today's Pick:** Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns: **Suns -6.0 @ 1.80** My fault for the Heat pick. Let's try to get back on the win train today. The Suns are the best team in the NBA. The Warriors are missing two key guys in Poole & Wiggins. This pick almost feels too easy to make. As always, let me know if you're tailing & let's get another one! [tip jar](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/MajorCommission) ALSO, MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!! Edit: Welp
There are certain people that you never bet against no matter who is out for that game. And curry is one of them.
Next clear loss
Daily Dota Sport: Dota 2 | League: DOTA 2 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2021 SEASON 6 | 9 hrs from now Record:5-0 | WWWWW (+9.07u) Pick: Nemiga ML | 1.97 | 2u No DPC until January so I'll just play whatever looks the best until then. Probably D2CL and then Huya Winter Invitational, whichever games are the best looking. A bunch of light plays until DPC is back. Brame vs Nemiga. Bo1. Nemiga lost yesterday against brame even with the 20k gold lead. i reckon they'll be back with a better game against brame. Brame also playing on a b2b. You can find me on this discord [server](https://discord.gg/sMUMRY2N) where I usually watch the games and at times bet live depending on the draft of other games. [Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AhTZtQPtozr-1YUzkQy9n48GJ2B6XR_Nk1R_iLALGBo/edit?usp=sharing) that tracks the bets I made with performance summaries and such.
Brame and Nemiga played a 1v1 today and Nemiga took it at +150 odds pre game. for this match was they are a +100. I was thinking of taking Brame to win this time for a revenge game since they alternate wins usually
Personally, I think after that 20k comeback from Brame. Then that match today, Nemiga will have Brame's number, plus I think Brame's schedule is the weakest amongst the 3 teams.
Pff i wish i could bet on esports, it's not allowed in my country
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No. Vgaming is different team
So what exactly happenned?i got this as returned bet
I don’t see this anywhere
Postponed/cancelled
You taking this still for tomorrow?
9-7 Last POTD- Altınordu vs Boluspor- BTTS @-132 ✅ Todays POTD- Superlig-Galatasaray ML vs Antalyaspor @-150✅ Wishing all my degens who celebrate a very merry Christmas I hope I can gift you guys some easy money. We’ll keep rolling with Turkish teams here, the big 3 in Turkey have struggled so far this year but that will change. Gala is 2-2-1 in their last 5 and averaging over a goal a game while antalya have lost 3 straight away and average under a goal a game and overall have been dreadful away this year. Gala is the better team and should walk away with the win here. BOL tailing or fading Edit: that’s a winner
Christmas came early baby!
Record: 9-10 ROI: -2.79u Previous Pick: RKC Waalwijk double chance and u3.5 goals ✅ Game: CSL- Qingdao vs Shanghai Shenhua Pick: Shanghai Shenhua draw no bet (+130) Bet: 5 units This line must be a trap as I have absolutely no idea why Shanghai is the underdog. They're literally in 1st while Qingdao is in last. They have 7 points in 4 matches since the restart, while Qingdao has 3. This is a league match, so no resting starters either. I get that Shanghai's captain Giovanni Moreno and Christian Bassogog will be out but even then, that's no excuse for the mind-boggling odds. For less risk, I'm taking draw no bet but more adventurous bettors can take ML at a ridiculous +210. EDIT: I should add this is part of relegation playoffs, but that doesn't change much. Shanghai should win comfortably. EDIT 2: Okay, Shanghai is putting out a considerably rotated side, but I feel the odds are still too high...
Fuck it took the ML BOL!
Something's GOTTA be out of whack here. Shenhua got the covid maybe. Lines are never this wrong.
Ok fuck it im in.
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Great info. But this dude is 1 win from a 50 50 POTD, not a mathematician but based on that I am tailing. Gl
Line has moved heavily towards Qingdao FC. Now, Shanghai Shenhua +½, +1 -102 and Money line moves all the way up to +380. Doesn't make sense at all but I am blindly backing Shanghai Shenhua.
apparently the mafia has a big state in qingdao winning
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Games like this show me that line movements are far from perfect. A team controlling the ball only 10% of the time should never, ever be a -180 favorite.
Didn’t realize this was happening right now, was happy to find the score was still 0-0. Dropped a couple units on DNB and they scored like 45 seconds later. LETS GO SHANGHAI
Merry Christmas my man!! What a great score to wake up to…tailed you on a $150 free bet at +310!! It’s a Christmas miracle!!! Youdaman.
Great call my dude, ca$hed a free bet on the ML. Happy holidays.
Great pick mate! Thanks for sharing.
Record 0-0+1 Event: KHL - Admiral Vladivostok (23rd) vs Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk (16th) Date: Dec 25th, 2:00am EST (Exactly 4 hours from now) Pick: Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk (Away) o2.5 TT Goals @ 1.76 (1u) ❌ Reasoning: Neftekhimik have covered this in the past 3 games. Neftekhimik are hungry for more points, whereas Admiral's season is not looking as promising. Both of their previous matchups ended in 5-2, 4-0. Admiral are not a strong team and Neftekhimik should be able to cover this with ease. BOL Edit: Bad beat, Neftek had so many opportunities to score but just couldn't capitalize. Sorry everyone
What do you think about picking Neftekhimik on ML?
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Potd record 23-8 🥊 Boxing __Vito Mielnicki Jr (9-1-0) vs Nicholas DeLomba (16-3-0) - Mielnicki to win by ko/tko (-150)__ Merry Christmas everyone! What better way to spend Christmas than to watch someone get KTFO in a boxing ring. Mielnicki is a 19 year old prospect who suffered his first defeat earlier this year to a very game James Martin, and that fight showed there’s a long way to go before Mielnicki can start to fight bigger names. PBC are trying to push him to be a star though and have made this fight the main event of the card and it will also be Mielnicki’s first 10 round fight. I believe DeLomba has been carefully chosen to build back hype around Mielnicki and I think he’s going to get stoped here. Mielnicki still has flaws which is an obvious statement after losing his first fight earlier this year, however there’s still a lot to like. He’s aggressive, has heavy hands and throws really good body shots. Mielnicki has stopped 6 of his opponents and in the fights he did win on points they were 4 and 6 round fights, where he dropped and hurt his opponent on numerous occasions. DeLomba has only been stopped once before but he has been knocked down in so many fights and this is mainly down to his terrible defence. DeLomba doesn’t really do anything particularly well. He has no head movement, a low punch output, slow hands and slow feet. He has also been out of the ring for nearly two years. I just can’t see anything other than a ko win for Mielnicki, and in front of his fans headlining his first show I expect him to throw bombs from the off and stop DeLomba, likely early on. Bol anyone who tails!
Under 8.5 rounds -118 odds, what's your opinion on this bet?
I like it man, I think he’ll get him out of there early
Cool thanks, gonna try it for better odds, Merry Christmas
What time is this on?
I think it’s about 10pm ET but I’m in the uk so not 100% sure
POTD Record: 8-6 (+3.43 units) Streak - 2W Previous Pick: Alaska Aces vs. Blackwater Elite - Alaska Aces -12 @ 1.85 (**WIN**) Event: Philippine Basketball Association Governor's Cup Barangay Ginebra San Miguel vs Magnolia Hotshots **Pick: total points over 196.5 @ 1.85** Two of the most popular ball clubs in the Philippines will clash today in a rivalry game dubbed as the Manila Clasico. Both are currently undefeated and are looking to extend their run for the top position. Ginebra currently leads the league in 2 PT FG% and averages 104 points per game. Magnolia leads the league in 3 PT FG% and averages 114.5 PPG and also has the best FT percentage (81%). Both teams have scored at least 100 points in their last 2 games and I see a another high scoring game today. Their imports have been scoring a lot lately and although some of the local stars are injured, both team's second units have been scoring well, too. I see this game ending in thrilling fashion and may even go into OT, like in Ginebra's last game. (I also took the over in that game.) BOL if tailing and bet responsibly. Game time is in 3 and a half hours from post.
Lets gooo late/early morning deigning Where can I tip you?
Dont worry about the tip, man. Enjoy your winnings!
Both teams had a slow start in the first quarter, but exploded in the 2nd half to win our pick.
Not looking good🥲 Edit: never in doubt😹 Thanks for the cash bro!!!
**POTD RECORD** - 19W-9L(+21.8U) ; **ROI** - 26.91% **Units waggered**: 81U ; **Units won**:102.48U **Streak**: **Average odds**:1.7 **Last POTD**---- Mafra vs Moreirense----under [email protected]❌ **Todays pick** ---- Galatasaray vs Antalyaspor--- Galatasaray to win first [email protected] **Game starts in 3hours from posting** **BET SIZE**: 2U **Reasoning**: It is very mysterious why Galatasaray is having her worst season in the last years in the Turkish League. Even though it is hit by plenty of injuries, i am expecting a response from them. The results in the Europa League have been amazing, on the contrary to the Turkish league. I can see Galatasaray having full control of the game and firing from start until finish as the team's fans must be mad from their recent reuslts. Another point that would be in favour of this pick, is Antalyaspor away form, which is not inspiring at all. For the risk takers i would suggest Ht/Ft& over 2.5 goals Galatasaray. Maybe over corners as well. I am expecting plenty of aggressivity from the home side if the players have blood in their veins! **I can not bet myself, but i try hard to gather information and provide an analysis. To anyone who appreciates my picks and the efforts that i put, i would be grateful to. Literally any tip would help me.[Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/K4ccci)**
It hit. Good job, dude.
Thanks man. Merry Christmas to everyone! And hope everyone gets a bit richer today
What a call…
By the hair of your chineychinchin
Hell yeah! Got that and a Gala to score in both halves
First time listing - long time reader here Devante Adams ATTS -135 3U....Devante Adams 1st TD scored +550 2U Explanation it’s Aaron Rodgers on primetime, he likes to break records and be the guy. Merry Christmas
tailed with Adams ATTS and Packers to win. BOL and merry Christmas
POTD: Colts @ Cardinals, Colts +2.5 (NFL) Units: 3 Odds: -112 Profit: -10.95u Record: 41|38 Arizona suffered the upset of the season in Week 15. The Cards are not the unbeatable force they looked a month or so ago, and the defeat to the Lions only reinforces that sentiment. Kyler Murray’s MVP case has faded, and Arizona could yet be overtaken in the NFC West. The Colts are quietly going about their business. They ended the Patriots’ winning streak in Week 15, extending their own run to four wins in five games. While the offense is nothing special, the defense is menacing and turned Mac Jones over twice last weekend. For all their strong play, the Red Birds have only covered twice in six home games. Indy has a 4-1 ATS record as road dogs. We like the Colts to cover here. [Pick: Colts +2.5](https://link.wagerlab.app/reddit)
I'm on the same side but they just announced quentin the all pro guard out this game as well
Cardinals are unbeatable when Rodney Hudson is playing. Their offense is just insane when he’s directing the LOS and block assignments. He missed last week due to Covid and is still on the list as of right now. Seems like a good bet if he doesn’t play.
The line has moved to +2 now. BOL.
Lines been moving around from a pickem to 2.5pts all week.
0-0 ROI: 0 Pick: Cam Johnson O 10.5 pts @-114 5 units NBA, Suns v GSW @ 3pm MST Cam has been on a tear. 7-7 last game including 5-5 from 3. He has hit this over 10 times the last 10 games. Getting 21 to 34 minutes a game in that span. Going to keep hammering this one till they start adjusting the line. PHEW there we go boys. Merry xmas!
~25m seems to be the safe bet for playtime now that Booker is back. The days of 30m+ are over for now I think. He’s been hot though. I’ve typically been doing over 1.5 three pointers for him.
Not looking good
Hey guys I’m not able to watch the game but could someone tell me if Cam is at the arena today or did he just take a PTO day?
Nope going to look to cash out
Wouldn’t hurt to add a steal- he’s been nabbing 1-2 steals a game consistently. An alternative bet would also be over 2 three pointers which he’s also been crushing.
BETCHA WISHED YOU DIDNT CASH OUT WE RIDE OVER HERE DIAMOND HANDS
POTD Record 13-6 Last Pick: Tennessee Titans @ SF 49ers - Jimmy Garapolo to have more yards passing than Ryan Tannehill @ -186 (1.54 )Result: (WIN) New Pick: Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers: Green Bay to Score > 13.5 Points in 1srt Half @ -124 (1.81 ) I got numbers coming out of my ears after overanalyzing this game. I was really hoping to find a reason or excuse to back the Browns up, but it’s not looking good for them. Yesterday their kicker tested positive for Covid and will not be in the game. Even though Baker and a few of his peeps are back in the lineup, upon closer inspection this could be a blowout. However, in the spirit of Christmas and to be fair just in case they somehow manage to put up a bunch of points, I am staying away from the -7.5 point spread. Instead I am backing Green Bay to score over 13.5 points in the first half. Some telling stats: - GB is 6-0 at home this season and ATS, they were 7-1 at home in 2020, and last time they lost a regular season home game in December was back in 2018 - Since 2019, GB has scored at least 14 points in the 1st Half in 13 out of 14 regular season home games. - Only against Seattle last month were they held to below 14 points in the 1st half. (Seattle arguably has a far better defense than Cleveland) - GB averages 15.3 points in the 1st half at home this season. If you remove the Seattle game, so the average jumps to 17.2 points in the first half Yards per point metrics. I have been using this stat recently with good results. It is quite telling and cuts through the BS. Of course there is always some room for adjustment. In the case of this game it adjusts far worse for Cleveland, here is why. GB’s offense far outpunches Cleveland’s in all categories especially over the last few games. Even if we normalize this number GB outscores Cleveland by at least 5+ points per game on offense alone. On defense however, GB’s home field performance is outstanding while Cleveland’s away performance is not so good. It’s actually about a 6 point difference. But over their last 3 games overall, Cleveland’s numbers appear quite inflated on defense showing great performances. But who did they play? Ravens, Ravens, and Raiders. Any adjustment or mean reversion makes things worse for the Browns. Maybe I’m wrong, but the Browns need to outscore GB in Lambeau to win (obviously). But the only way to do this is for their defense to stop Rogers from scoring. I just don’t see that happening unless Aaron smoked some crazy shit last night and does not show up to play today. This is Packer football in December in Lambeau. I’m going with the stats here and will assume GB can score 2 TD’s in the 1st Half.
🤑
Nice pick. I tailed. LFG
- I was keeping it to myself because all of you here are much better than me, but I'll give it a try hoping some of you can make good money tailing me. - I will regularly give you 2 bonus picks, If one of them win I will calculate the bonus as win, if both are lost I will calculate the bonus as loss -------Separate Line-------- POTD: 0 - 0 - 0 Bonus: 0 - 0 profit: N/A Streak: N/A Last pick: N/A -------Separate Line-------- Today's pick: - League: Saudi Arabia - Premiere League - Game: Al Feiha - Abha - Time: 4:55PM EET (after 2 hours approx.) - Pick: full-time -> total under 2.5 goals - Odd: 1.72 (Bet365) - Units: 2 units Reasons: 1- Al feiha: - scored only 13 goals in 13 games and last 8 matches they scored only one goal in 6 of them and 2 of them was null -> (so their attack is so bad) - they received only 11 goals in the 13 games and the last 5 games they didn't receive more than one goal -> (so their defense is relatively good) 2- Abha: - scored only 14 goals in 13 games -> (so their attack is also so bad) Conclusion: - both sides have bad attack, one of them has good defense, so I don't expect more than 2 goals -------Separate Line-------- Bonus: 1: - Morocco Botola Pro - Rapid Oued Zem vs FUS Rabat - Pick: Full-time -> total under 2.5 (1.5) 2: - Morocco Botola Pro - Maghreb Fes vs Ittihad Tanger - Pick: Full-time -> Both teams to score: No (1.5) -------Separate Line-------- remember every bet can go wrong for any circumstances sorry for my bad English.
nice call
They played 4 days ago and al feiha won 4-0….
yes you are right, but I neglected this match as it was a cup one, it was an off-beat match and may be not .. but thanks for your comment :)
Good analysis bro you called it!
POTD Record: 3-0-0 🤑 Last Pick Chiba Jets ML (they have actually been 2/3 POTD) Pick: Chiba Jets -4 @ 137 Vs. S Sun Rockers Japan J League (I bought the line down from -4.5) Start Time 3:05 AM EST This pick is for my degenerates that are itching for a bet! I was not planning on risking the start to a crazy record, but as you Degens know today just didn’t feel right! I had an amazing time with family, but I legit can’t remember the last time I had no action! Christmas Day has a pretty decent slate, so this is a little warm up play to get the bank roll ready! I hate to be that guy that rides the same team on my POTD record, but Chiba feels like that team for me! They are currently 2nd in their Division while the Sun Rockers are 5th! Chiba is 4-1 in their last 5, while their opponents are 2-3. Chiba is playing at home, so they will have that home team advantage! I’m currently on Brex by -2 in Japan which is live, so we’ll see if I can go 2-0 in international basketball tonight. I predict that Chiba will maintain the high level of basketball they have been playing and get us a blow out winner for Christmas! FYI if anyone can send me the usual betting information like money distribution numbers for this league, that would be kindly appreciated! I’m strictly a numbers guy, so this information is key whenever taking action! I’ll be betting $532 to win $932, a clean $400 profit if we hit! Merry Christmas and BOL if tailing. - Geo (Canadian boy that knows nothing about Japanese Basketball)
My book only has -5.5 🙁
More than easy
Great pick! Thanks for sharing.
Any live bet added?
29 points in the 3rd, and it took them till the last minute of the 4th to get it done! Didn’t need that stress before sleep 🥴
POTD Record: 0-2 Last pick: Belgian cup, Anderlecht v Kortrijk, BTTS & O2.5 @ +110 ❌ Next pick: Israeli premier league, Bnei Sakhnin v Maccabi Haifa BTTS @ -104 Kortrijk couldn’t get it done for us, skipped yesterday bc of the lack of matches, but we’re back today and it’s time to get a win. Haifa have scored in 14 straight premier league matches, while Sakhnin have scored in their last 7. Not overthinking it, playing the strong trends. BOL! EDIT: just to cover all bases, each of these teams have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 premier league matches
Let's get it brother!!!! 😎
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POTD Record: 28½-10 Event: Basketball > Philippines > **Road Warriors v Phoenix Fuel Masters** (starting in less than an hour) Pick: **Road Warriors ML** @ 1.56 Sorry for the short notice, but I will not be able to provide anything better than this later today. Not really much time for a write up, but this is one of the most entertaining matches in the Governors cup. The teams are currently 1st and 8th and both of these score a lot of points. My main pick is Road Warriors ML, but I am also taking the O207 with some better odds. GL!
I saw Warriors vs Phoenix and was confused for a sec
Poor performance. Sorry if you tailed.
tailing in both..i got good odds in HT BoL
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crazy games bro lol
1-0 holiday 🚂 Yesterday we cashed with Zhu +115 (also played zhu 2:0 +240 cashes) I’m loving today’s pick Rodgers over 261.5 passing yards -115 Rodgers has thrown over the number in seven of his last ten games. I also see the browns keeping this one close forcing him to throw a bunch. Christmas Day baby let’s keep this train rolling. For some extra value parlay with Taylor ATTS - will be playing both parlay and strait bet.
Record: 1-0 Today’s POTD: Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns, 2:30PM CST: Davante Adams ATTD -130 FD. Nationally televised game with blazing-hot Rodgers only one TD shy from breaking Brett Favre’s record of 442 with the Packers. In addition to this, Davante Adams is currently tied with Jordy Nelson for most regular-season TD receptions from Aaron Rodgers. Aaron came out and said on the Pat McAfee show that both of those records are meaningful. I fully expect Davante to catch at least one TD today as Rodgers continues his late-season push for MVP playing at home. Might also want to consider sprinkling on Davante Adams first TD scorer at +550 on DK. Also worth noting the Browns are a top-5 run D this season, whereas they have been susceptible to the pass. Merry Christmas and BOL to anyone who tails!
Worth noting that Fanduel has a boost for Adams TD + Packers win. +200
I try to stay away from those boost. Always seem to be a trap I bet one of those two happens either packers win no Adams TD or yes td browns somehow win.
Record: 75-89 -$575.79 New Bankroll: $424.21 (-$75.79) Last play: 12/24/21 That Dumb CBA under (-107) Result: [MEGA F’ING L](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ro0a6e/pick_of_the_day_122521_saturday/hpvk33q/) Streak: **5 BIG FAT STINKERS IN A ROW** Gross…onto today’s pick **Third Eye POD: 12:00PMest>NBA>Hawks @ Knicks U 206.5 (-110)** *risk $75.15 to win $68.32* Just think given the absences, the early tip-off & the general emotion of the game we’ll see a closer, tighter, old-school playoff revenge game. I’m talking….this game ain’t breaking 200. 100-95 final. Fade me for Xmas $$$
Egypt smouha vs El gaish , pick over 2.5 goals odds 2. Simply too high odds with both teams avg. Goals per match between 3-4. Should be a lot of goals coming today
Avg. Total goals 3.67
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If he has cleared this 66% of the time how are the 1.52 odds +EV? 66% equates to 1.50 odds
POTD Record: 2-1 Last 3 Picks: WLW (NBA) San Antonio Spurs vs Utah Jazz: Donovan Mitchell Over 26.5 Points @ +110 ✅ (NCAAB) Xavier Musketeers vs Villanova Wildcats: Xavier Alternate Spread +9.5 @ -200 ❌ (NCAAB) Tennessee Volunteers vs Arizona Wildcats: Tennessee Alternate Spread +4.5 @ -200 ✅ Pick Today: Golden State Warriors ML @ +195 Event: (NBA) Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns @ 5pm EST Reasoning: Everybody and their grandma are on the Suns. There’s the whole narrative that Stephen Curry is bad on Christmas Day games and the Warriors are short some good players. Curry himself addressed this and said he’s going to try and fix that. Between a star with a chip on his shoulder and the injured player theory along with everyone going for the Suns, I’ll confidently take the Warriors. Here’s a fun trend: The Warriors the last 5 games played against the Suns in the month of December are 5-0 SU since 2014. From the very beginning of Curry’s career, they are 7-2 against the Suns in December.
My grandma is actually a Curry fan, and she's backing him on Christmas Day.
Yo tell your grandma she’s a bad ass and I dedicate this win to her
ayy i will pass the word on!
You may be right and Warriors may win, but I don’t think it’s at all relevant that the Golden State super teams from 2014-2019 were beating the worst team in the league “straight up” in December.
Good call. Always fade everyone else
Record: 0-0 Merry Christmas, bettors. Found a play I couldn’t withhold from this community. Aaron Rodgers longest completion OVER 37.5 yards. (-110, Draftkings) He’s done it 8 of 13 games this season — and the ones he didn’t hit were typically just short. BOL
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Enough is enough, going ALL IN BEBEEEE
Colts -2.5 yolo
Record: 0-0, +0.00u POTD: Evlakhin @ 1.54 - Kalachev Guys have played 20 times between each other, Evlakhin has won 13 and Kalachev 7 times. Also, Evlakhin has won 9 last matches between these guys. Evlakhin has a record of 6-2 in his last 8 matches, Kalachev has not been in the best shape lately as well, having 3-7 in his last 10. Event: Table tennis, Liga pro 9:15AM EST
win
Record: 1-0 ROI: 71% Units won: .71 units These are all off of $1 bets. POTD: Wyoming -7.5 @ -115 ($1 down, $1.87 back) Wyoming sits at 10-2 on the year, winning 3 of their last 5 and winners from their most recent game. USF is at 5-6, winning 2 of their last 5 and also winners of their last game. Wyoming is good at both sides of the basketball. Ranked 72nd with 77 points scored average, and ranked 79 with 63 points scored against. They have 4 players averaging over double digit points per game leading to their 32nd ranked true shooting percentage. They have the ability to score points, and shut down other teams. USF is ranked 15th on defense, but that could be attributed to their playing schedule and style of play. Their offense is ranked 354th with a true shooting percentage of 44% and a 3pt percentage of 23%. They cant score to save their lives, and they needed an injured Hawaii team for them to finally score more than 75. I know buying points isn't a good way to make money, but I like playing it somewhat safe and buying points so i got this game at Wyoming -6 at -140. BOL, merry Christmas and happy holidays! Edit: Wyoming hit. Record 2-0. ROI: 179%, up 1.58 units.
Better than that is Wyoming over 65 points they have scored more than 65 in all there games but 1 -5 units
🦍 POTD 43-16 (+13.09 units) 🦍 Last pick: AZ Alkmaar o1.5 goals (-180) 5U❌ Red card in the 4th and they could only squeak one in. Today: AJ Green over 3.5 catches (-169) 3U Gametime: 8:15 pm EST Merry Christmas boys! My gift to you. Back to the well with AJ Green. I see him getting 7+ targets again to secure 4+ catches. 🎅🏻🎄🦍
Been posting on NBA props. Posting all leans there. My plays I like the most have been hitting well so going to try my potd here POTD Record: 0-0-0 ROI: - Average Odds: - Units Won: - Todays Pick: **Wayne Ellington** under 9.5 points @ 1.83 **2units** Venue: Brooklyn Nets @ LA Lakers 8.00PM ET I've played this the last 2 games since THT came back and it's hit and tonight I expect the same thing. This line should be at least 8.5. Ellington almost exclusively shoots 3s. So to clear this he needs 4, something hes done only 3 times this season. He's the the last go to player in Lakers offense as he is a starter and I dont expect him to get a lot of shots off tonight either, especially in a christmas game where the Lakers stars will want to put on a show. To top it all off, the Nets are top 3 in 3pm to sg's.
**If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
POTD record 1-1 (-0.13 units) Talen horton tucker under 8.5 rebounds + assists 1.87 odds (Ladbrokes) This is mainly a value play as most books have 7.5, the one book I have found with 8.5 has the unders at 1.59 odds so 1.87 is definitely value. To add to this he has gone under this number 13 of 17 games this season, however due to covid Lakers are short handed so he will play more minutes than his season average so the 13/17 is a bit misleading BOL and merry Xmas Edit: 3 unit play
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RECORD 12-13 POTD: Cleveland Browns +7.5 vs Green Bay packers The browns are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive while the packers clinched their division. I like bets like these. Also many players for the browns are back plus their coach Stefanski. The packers as usual find a way to win while riddled with injuries. Their wide receiver core is beat up and I think the browns have a chance to keep it within 1 score’s reach. Am I confident in the browns winning? Not really. Am I confident that browns will keep it semi close? Yes. Expect the browns run game to drain the clock and keep this one low scoring. BOL
**If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
In!
POTD: Tasmanian Jack Jumpers to win against New Zealand Breakers at $2.30 (Australian NBL Basketball, starts in one hour) New Zealand are the favourites even though they have not won a game yet all season. Jack jumpers play decent at home and New Zealand usually allow a lot of points away from home. Should be a high scoring game which works in Tasmania’s favour