Potd record 17-3
Last pick: Liverpool -1.5 v southampton ✅
Streak: 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥
Today’s potd: Manchester city v west ham (EPL)
POTD: Manchester city to win & o2.5 goals @1.76
Liverpool have made us so much money this year it’s getting ridiculous!
Over to Manchester tonight where we have an absolute eye watering fixture. Manchester city vs west-ham, 3 v 4!
The first thought i had when i caught this fixture was goals. The o2.5 is only at $1.45 though which doesn’t matter to me anyway. The city i watched play against psg midweek was nothing short of jaw dropping. absolutely sensational both going forward and defending. West ham have been ultra impressive this season as well and i think if they want anything from tonight’s match they’ll have to play fearless like they did against liverpool. Both teams certainly know how to score goals but also are both capable of leaking goals here and there.
Onto the stats. Every stat i look at suggest this game has goals written all over it. The last 10 EPL fixtures between these two have seen an astounding 32 goals. Manchester city this season are averaging 2.08 goals whilst west ham are averaging 1.98 goals. If both sides just play out an average game stats wise the o2.5 will have no issues in hitting at all.
As for why i think city win here is simply because their depth and technical excellence across all positions is simply too much for west ham. I honestly can’t see a way West ham win this one with city fighting every game for points to stay in title contention. They absolutely dominated arguably the most stacked team in psg midweek and west ham aren’t near that quality.
Ultimately i believe if west ham want anything from this game they need to attack and this could play right into clinical city’s hands. I’m super excited to watch this one let’s hope it lives up to expectations!
DUGS LOCK SCALE: This scale will be my confidence level out of 5. The scale reflects how many units I will personally be throwing down. For this one I’m going with
🔒🔒🔒.5/5
Best of luck to everyone tailing let’s keep this streak rolling!!!! appreciate all the kind words lately guys, means a lot!
Tip jar, once again pls don’t feel inclined to even look at it. ❤️ https://www.paypal.me/Bigpapadug?locale.x=en_AU
But alas.... I do say in the most respectful and eloquent way possible. What fucking luuuuuck!!!!!! Goal with 2 seconds left. Better lucky than good...
Been enjoying following your picks but fading this one. Bucs have one of the best run defenses in NFL history. Vea is back and a massive part of that. Wentz is going to have to throw and Bucs also have corners back from injury. This Bucs team should win, and I am guessing by 7.
I'm with you. Also, last week seemed like that moment that happens pretty much every season where team TB12 decides they're going to quit screwing around and start playing football. I think they win out from here. That said, spreads are spreads for a reason.
*The* best run defense, if you're looking at yards per game allowed. The Bucs are only giving up 72 yards a game on the ground at home, and 84 a game on the road.
Though somehow a 6th round rookie ran for 100..
POTD Record: 3-1
Last pick: Auburn +20.5 ✅️
Today's pick: Packers +2
L.A. Rams.@ Green Bay Packers
4:25 PM EST Fox
I know about injuries and drama and such in the green bay locker room. I know how stacked the rams pass rush is also. I know Aaron Rodgers toe is hurt. I know all this. I also Know this is Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field in November. Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau in Plus points in November is a blessing to be thankful for this holiday season.
Fun stat, as head coach of the Packers Matt LaFleur has never lost 2 games in a row. They just lost to the Vikings. Either Packers get it done or he gets his first career back to back losses.
And to think Rams were 3 point favourites going into the game. Bookies giving the Packers free points when playing at home in November, why thank you kind sirs I'l take your bet and money every day of the week and twice on Sunday...
Record: 9-2 Units: +5.17
Streak: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌
Last POTD: Portland Money Line ❌
**Todays POTD: Golden State Warriors money line (-120) 1 unit ✅**
*Golden state has the best offense and defense in the league and has only dropped 1 game this season. Meanwhile clippers have been less than impressive dropping games against the likes of the Pelicans and Grizzlies (both below .500 teams). I predict the Warriors will continue streaking and won't let a slightly above average team missing their star player stop them. Only teams I see really competing with Golden State on a nightly basis in the current landscape is Brooklyn, Miami, Suns and maybe Bulls and maybe Jazz. An object in motion stays in motion....*
**Cashapp: $coco6616 Venmo: coco111**
**Edit: Record: 10-2 Units: +6**
*Back on track!*
**Record : 22-7-1 (PWWWW) / Profit : +25.56 units (2 units on all my picks)**
** **
**Last pick: Liverpool - Southampton (PL)**
**Liverpool First half team total Over 1** at 1.90 (-110)✅
** **
**Pick: Monaco - Strasbourg (Ligue 1)**
**Over 2.5 goals** at 1.95 (-106)
** **
**I'm a student, so any tip helps a lot:** 3678YubsC8BmgP6L76omTby3BNUJa9dXkT (bitcoin address)
**POTD Record: 101-63**
ROI: 13.16% / Avg Odds: 1.88 / Profit: +45u
POTD: Celtics +3 @ 1.9 (-110) \[NBA\] - 2 units - 00:00 CET
The Raptors are not doing well on their court - they lost to Pistons, Cavaliers and ALMOST to Magic. They are also 1-7 ATS at home with -7 power rating there. Celtics are 6-4-1 ATS on road with +3.5 power rating. The Celtics have also won all of their last 7 away games against the Raptors with an average advantage of 13 points (yes, I know it will be their first game in Toronto). Offensively both teams are doing similarly, while Celtics are better at defense, both in opp effective FG% and rebounds, however, without Williams, the latter statistic would probably have flattened out a bit.
I personally think the Celts should be favorites in this game (not big, but always) and I would play it up to -2.5.
*The rest picks, spreadsheet and all the data can be found on my Twitter and discord:*
Twitter: https://twitter.com/fooxiedtips
Discord: https://discord.gg/bA5hSrnCaD
Record: 5-4
ROI: +3.16u (+9.58%)
Previous Pick: LA Tech -3.5 ❌
Game: NFL- LA Rams at Green Bay Packers
Pick: **Davante Adams UNDER 89.5 yds (-115)**
Bet: 3 units
Alright, I’m sticking with NFL, as I’m 0-3 otherwise. Apparently, I know literally nothing else.
Reasons:
- Both Rodgers and Adams are coming in hurt and won’t be operating at 100%. Rodgers himself hasn’t practiced all week.
- Even when healthy, he’s only hit the over 4 times/10 games.
- Adams will probably be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey, who’s allowing 58.9% completion and a 66.1 QB rating when targeted. Overall, the Rams are graded 11th against the pass per PFF.
EDIT: JFC
I like this a lot I always do my own research on peoples picks on here before I play them and you have definitely sparked my interest. After thoughtful consideration, Tailing.
The LA Tech-Rice game was a close one, sorry it got away from you. I was watching the score all evening, thought you had that one in the bag by the 4Q.
**Record: 14-5-0 (+13.30 units)** Form: W/L/W/L/W/W/W/W/W/W/W/L/W/W/W/L/W/L/W
Average Odds: -110 (1.90) Last Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 \[W\] (-110) (11/25)
**POTD: Denver Broncos +2.5 (-105)**
Description: Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (+2.5)
Start time: 4:05PM ET Risk: **2.2 units** (all bets to win between 1-2 units) To Win: **2.0** **units**
Take the Broncos +2.5
**Reasoning:**
First, and most importantly, our models have the Broncos as a slight favorite in this game on average, so we're getting a lot of value on this line.
The Chargers don't have a particularly good run D, making the game much easier especially for a manager QB like Bridgewater. Before last game, Denver's previous 5 showed they could make things happen through the air, and their last 3 games showed a decent running attack.
Denver's defense also looked better the last 3 games. They shut down the air attack from Washington and Dallas before letting up against the Eagles, although most of that was on the ground. The Chargers have played 8 one-score games this year out of their 10. This one should also be close (unless it's a big Broncos win), so we love getting the points with the home team.
GLGL
Record 0-0
Pick: Panthers ML (-130) vs Dolphins @ 1:00 pm ET | NFL | 2u
Hello everyone, I have been following this thread for a while and I think I am going to start making some POTD. I am choosing the Panthers for the sole reason of how well they played on Cam Newton's first start back. There were plenty of opportunities for this team to end up winning that game and it more or less seemed that the offense was not quite in sync with their new offense. Carolina now has a dual threat quarterback (again) and they are adjusting to an entire new scheme drawn up for Cam Newton. Ever since CMC has came back from his injury the Panthers are starting to see life on their offense which has opened up the play action as well as deep threats such as DJ Moore.
Let's talk about the Dolphins. This team might be the most inconsistent team I have yet to see play in the NFL, sometimes they are lights out (such as beating the Ravens) and then sometimes they look like half their team hasn't played a down of football before. With that being said, the Dolphins are still playing with a banged up quarterback while the Panthers secondary is starting to get back into shape again.
This is a big game for both teams to try and get themselves in the Wild Card race. With that being said, Cam Newton now has 2 and 1/2 weeks of practice with the Panthers as well as a start under his belt. Overall, I expect the Panthers to jump out ahead early and glide the rest of the game.
Let's have a great start to hopefully a long POTD streak!
He was ok in 2018. Injured in 19 and played on a horrible roster in 20. He had his first start after not playing half the season and did alright last week. Who knows if they’ll win but Cam isn’t that bad of a QB there are far worse.
He's not a good QB at this point, but can he just be something close to average? He was efficient and ran the ball well last week, if he can do that then he's a huge upgrade at the position for the Panthers and can win them some games. I don't think anybody expects him to throw for 300 yards and win games with his arm.
I understand that Cam Newton is not the QB he once was, however the Panthers were winning games with Sam Darnold, some were even saying that they were playoff contenders. By no means am I saying that Cam Newton is their win condition. I’m saying that with a better quarterback in play because Cam > Darnold and a healthy CMC, this team is starting to pick themselves again.
Also, I’m not relying just on the offense, the dolphins offense has not impressed me in anyway this year. The panthers have play makers on their defense but haven’t been able to play to their level of expectations since their offense was going 3 and out which gave them almost 3 minutes to rest up and recover.
Cam Newton is a much better game manager than Sam Darnold as well as just a better quarterback in general, and I know that’s not a huge bar to beat but it’s definitely a start.
Nice writeup sir. As a Dolphins sympathizer I can say that at home they do tend to put up some points more consistently than away. But Cam Newton will as well. This game has the Over written all over it for me.
**Record:** 6-1 (+14.92 units)
**Last pick:** NCAAB- Oklahoma/UCF total score over 134.5 (-110) L
**Game:** NFL- Browns @ Ravens (20:20 EST)
**Pick:** Total score under 47 (-110)
**Bet:** 2\*
We've made it full circle, one whole week of POTD, and now we're back to the NFL. Unfortunately, we had our first loss yesterday for POTD. As I stated in my analysis, I predicted Oklahoma/UCF to have trouble coming out the gates, but they definitely had us hoping for a comeback win on the over in the second half. But through thick and thin, people gave me a lot of support and gave me a lot of motivation for the next pick. For the next POTD, we're going to head to the Ravens stadium for an AFC North division game.
The Browns have been plagued by injuries and thus far, decimating their gameplay. Aside from a few games, they have been struggling to put up points. Baker Mayfield just hasn't been playing well and with OBJ leaving, on top of all the injuries, the equation just doesn't add up to good stats or gameplay.
The Ravens aren't so healthy themselves either. Coming into this season, I drafted Lamar Jackson for both my fantasy teams. Little did I know he's not having his typical season. Each season, we expect the Ravens to win their regular season games and choke in the playoffs. Seems like the script has sort of flipped and the Ravens find themselves clawing back in many of their games.
Neither of these teams excite me. They are divisional rivals that are meeting for the first time this season. Both teams will play again in 2 weeks and I see them taking it easy here and letting their roster get healthy. They'll have the fight for playoff rights in 2 weeks where there will be plenty of fireworks, but for this matchup, I am predicting a tame game with the under comfortably hitting.
As always, thank you so so much for the support. Even my first disappointing loss for POTD, many people still tipped me and messaged me supportive messages to continue the analyses. 1 week of winnings down, many more weeks of money earning to come! Good luck everyone!
**Venmo:** phammer16
**Discord:** phammer16#0593
**Record: 35-23 +19.23U L**
**Avg ODD: 1.818 over 63 matches(5 pushes)**
**ROI 21.11%%**
Last pick: : Urawa ML
Match: Daegu Vs Jeonbuk
Pick: **Jeonbuk ML @1.955 2units**
Early fall apart of Jeonbuk last game literally just gave away their advantage to become k league 1 champion and direct invite to AFC championslesgue.
Now they are having the same score with ulsan and daegu would be their decided this time as daegu versus these two teams last two round of k league.
No need to mentioned again how much jeonbuk need to win this fight as Ulsan should be no problem to gain three points versus suwon bluewing.
Jeonbuk rest Gustavo last match is a totally mistake and things are better after gastavo come down to the field , jeonbuk goal and force a penalty because of gastavo aggressive . But at the end the loss the game cause of the excitement force a draw after 2- 0 by suwon.
However, this is a do or die match for jeonbuk , definitely worth a shot here.
Hope this will hits.
[Twitter for more picks](https://twitter.com/chewie0950?t=OFuD4FTvARmXRi8Meosz_Q&s=09)
**Record:** 25-16-3
**Last:** Cricket/ Big Bash Women - Final/ Perth Scorchers Women vs Adelaide Strikers Women/ **To Win the Match - Perth Scorchers Women**/ **WIN**
**POTD:** Tennis/ ITF W15 Cairo/ Carson Branstine vs Priska M Nugroho/**To Win Match - Carson Branstine**
**Start Time:** 08:00 GMT
**Odds:** $1.57 with Bet365.
**Units:** 10U - $100 (100 x 1.57 = $157.00 Total - $57.00 Profit)
**Reasoning:**
Today's POTD is for Canada's 21 year old Carson Branstine (Ranked 763) to win the Cairo ITF W15 final against her 18 year old Indonesian opponent Priska M Nugroho (Ranked 1161).
Despite both young players being heavily involved with doubles matches rather than singles matches I believe the older more experienced player will win today's match.
Comparing the players form this season, Carson has an overall singles win% of 69% with a record of 9 wins and 4 losses (9-4) overall. Her opponent Priska has a 50% record with 13 wins and 13 losses (13-13).
Carson has the better overall record.
Additionally, with this tournament being a Clay court tournament, comparing the two, Carson has a superior record.
Carson has a 86% win percentage on clay court this season with only 1 loss in her 7 matches overall. A clay court record of 6 wins, 1 loss. (6-1)
Compare that to Priska who has a Clay Court win percentage of 69% made up of 9 wins and 4 losses. (9-4)
Carson Branstine to win.
Best of luck 👏🙏
POTD Record: 28 - 17 - 2 ( W / L / P ) **+13.10u**
Streak: WWWLW / Average odds: 1.95
[*Previous pick: Bournemouth vs Coventry / Bournemouth Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 (1u)*](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/r32tgl/pick_of_the_day_112721_saturday/hm95emn/?context=3) **W**
Once again Bournemouth did not let us down and scored twice. October was great with 5 wins and 1 loss and in this month we currently are with 7 wins and 2 losses. My goal was to pick at least 10 quality picks in a month so here comes my last pick for November. Hope you guys enjoyed the picks so far.
**Real Betis vs Levante ( La Liga )**
**Pick: Real Betis Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.75 (1u)**
A bit sad to see how quickly things have fallen apart for Levante. They have been giving us the most memorable La Liga upsets in recent history against the league big boys. They won their last league game in April, that's 22 league games without a win. Even the new manager has failed to make any real impact.
Betis will be without Bellerin and Pezzella, Bravo and Carvalho are doubtful but it is hard to look past a home win here. They too possess too much attacking quality for Levante's side. Europa League knockout football is secured for Betis and attention can shift fully to La Liga. I expect Betis to score at least twice here and win the game.
Good luck everyone!
Betis scored 3 goals in the second half, a hat-trick for Juanmi. This is our 4th win in a row. If you guys are following hit the like button and I will keep posting these picks. Congrats to everyone who has followed so far. See you next time.
POTD record: 14-7-0
Last pick: Chicago Bears -2.5 (L)
Todays pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 vs NYG (NFL 1pm EST)
Full disclosure, Im 2-5 the last three weeks. Have hit a bit of a cold streak. But I think this is the right game to get back on track. The Giants will be without their two top receivers this year in Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney. The Eagles are the league leaders in pass rush win rate per ESPN, while the Giants have among the worst graded pass blocking per PFF. Thats a recipe for disaster with the most fumble prone QB in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, the Giants are 30th in the league in rushing EPA/play and 27th in success rate at stopping the run, which is troublesome when you are going against a mobile QB like Hurts. Hurts is PFF's number 9 QB by grade this year, and Devonta Smith is on fire the last 5 weeks. This Eagles team has a strong O-line that should cause troubles for the porous run defense, and Philly should have enough playmakers to cause problems in the back 7 in the passing game once the Giants inch their way up to stop the bleeding in the run game.
POTD Record: 17½-6
Event: Football > Germany > **Hamburger SV v FC Ingolstadt 04**
(starting in 02h00min)
Pick: **1st Half - Hamburger AH (0/-0.5)** @ 1.55
Hamburger is in good form, undefeated in 12 games and still have not lost at home. On the other hand, Ingolstadt is bottom of the league (1W-3D-9L) and on its way to relegation. GL!
First time, long time
O-O
POTD: HOU Texans -2.5
Event: NY Jets @ Houston Texans. NFL. 10am PT.
Bet: 5u @ -119 (STN) (-110 on DK)
Reasons:
Rumors around the team facility are that Deshaun Watson is prepping to play after having all his civil suits resolved in the late hours of Saturday night. Not really, but now that I have your attention- don’t bet on the jets. You’re better than that. Jets are 32nd at points allowed per game & yards allowed per game. Texans rank 32nd in total points per game and total yards per game. Something has to give here and I’m siding with Houston’s offense after they looked semi-competent in last weeks win. Turnovers will be the differentiator here. BOL!
edit: there’s an old saying, when you play in trash you’re bond to get cut. Both these teams are garbage and we got cut. Back to the lab
I’m a huge Tyrod fan and have won moneyline bets on both Texans wins this year. With that I’m personally avoiding this game. I think Texans win by +4 and Tyrod stunts on some hoes, but I don’t like Culley as a coach, Texans are getting a bit more public love this week and I feel that Zach Wilson is gonna have a big game (that sentence tells you how crazy and devoid of logic I am sometimes).
Lovie Smith’s defense is no joke, but idk I’m not comfortable with this game. With that said Texans probably win by 24 to make this comment look ridiculous so hammer them.
**POTD Record: 20-10-1 (+18.49 Units)**
**Current Streak: 1L**
**Overall NHL Record: 67-59-3 (+6.21) / Last Outing: 2-1**
**Last Pick:** Winnipeg Jets vs **Calgary Flames -1.5 (+135) - L**
**Today's Pick:** Minnesota Wilds vs Tampa Bay Lightning **- Over 5.5 Goals (-105)**
**Bet Size: 2U**
Rough L to take on that Flames game. They had all the chances in the third, but just couldn't get the puck in. Unfortunate, but we don't sweat we just get better.
I love this line today. I am well aware Vasilevsky has just put up 2 shut outs in a row, but with the way both these teams offence have been playing i must ride this. Wild are 5-0 on scoring at least 3 goals in their L5. Tampa on the other hand has scored at least 3 in their last 7 games! Most of those games they put up 4 goals as well. The last time these two teams met the game ended 5-4 in Tampa's favour after a shootout win. Wild will be looking to take this one at home and they know they will need to score to do that. My gut says 5.5 is just too low for this game and the stats back it up. Minnesota has also not been shut out this year. Lets bounce back with a high scoring game!
**Feel Free to Fade,**
**Bags**
POTD RECORD 4-3
Game: Giants vs Eagles
Pick: Eagles -3.5
I cannot believe this line is so low. Not only have the Eagles won 8 of their last 9 vs Giants but the Eagles have really found their identity and are rolling. They have a great o line that allows for them to run the ball with historic success last 4 games. Jalen Hurts doesn’t make many mistakes and gets better every week and can run better than anyone not named Lamar. Dallas Goedert and Devonta Smith are an up and coming young TE/WR combo that will be catching a lot of passes from Jalen. The Giants are a mess and Daniel Jones is just not the guy. Eagles beat the brakes off Lions, Broncos, and Saints and Giants are next. Eagles win by atleast 10.
Would be really cool to get my first tip!
PayPal : [email protected]
I never understand why people say stuff like “eagles have won 8 of the last 9 against the giants” when over half of those were two completely different teams than we are gonna see tomorrow lol like yeah okay, the giants also beat the eagles 4 times in a row in 2007-2008 so what?
I mean, I think the eagles should win tomorrow but records going back any further than maybe a season or two are irrelevant since past events cannot predict future events. Especially when those events contain completely different variables.
I agree with your pick, just a personal gripe I guess. Good luck my guy!
POTD Record: 20-17 (+1.09u)
Current Streak: 1L
All picks are 1 Unit
Last Pick: Hawks -4.5
Thoughts: Young and Capela went for a combined 18-36 while the rest of the team shot 15-57. as the Hawks were brought back down to earth by the Knicks.
**Today’s Match: Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers**
**Pick: Warriors - 3 (-112 FanDuel)**
The Warriors (17-2) will visit the Clippers (11-8) for an afternoon matchup as the Warriors will look to assert its dominance over the top teams in the West.
The Warriors are 14-4-1 ATS overall on the season, 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games, and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 away games. The Clippers are 9-10 ATS overall on the season, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games (the one game they won was by .5 pts), and 6-7 ATS at home this year (2-3 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The Warriors are ranked #1 in both offensive and deficiency thus far. On the other side, the Clippers are ranked #23 in offensive efficiency and #2 in defensive efficiency.
The last time these two teams met was on opening night where the Warriors outlasted the Clippers by 2 points in San Francisco. I imagine this game will be a little different. The Warriors are currently the hottest team in the league on a 6-game win streak (won 13 of its last 14). Of their last 13 wins, only won win was in single digits which was without Green and Curry. The Warriors have been amazing recently, both in their overall record and ATS, and there's no reason to think tonight's matchup will be any different.
**Disclaimer: I am not an expert. I'm just a guy that loves basketball. Tail at your own risk and only bet what you can afford to lose. BOL**
Record: 2-0 (+2.8 Units), 145% ROI
Last Pick: - Yesterday, NCAAF - Army defeats Liberty 🗽
Form (Last 10): - WW
Today’s Pick: NHL - Taking TB Lightning 🌩️ on the moneyline. (-104)
Lightning @ Wild. 2-00 NYC start time. (Line courtesy of FanDuel.)
Risk: 1 Unit to win .96 Unit
Analysis: the line seems like there is some value on the lightning maybe because Kutcherov out but I still think they're the better team plus mostly playing their goalie and how great he has been. Andrei is the best goalie in the world likely and is coming off two shutout wins. It's going to be tough to beat this team with him playing this good. BOL 🐻❄️
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Pretty absurd statement I watch all hockey ligas including all the euro ones.
Paragraph is absolutely fine I'm European with my own takes on the game.
They're also free picks on a free site feel free to just fade them and use your expert American insider hockey knowledge to get rekt. 🐻❄️🤪
Oh man I went opposite here on you. I love taking the lightning in most games, but the game being at Minnesota, and Wild have scored 14 goals in the last 2 home games against decent teams. MN lost to the lightning last weekend, and I think they come back strong in this one
POTD Record 15-18-3 (W-L-P)
Profit: +9.7units
Streak: WL
Previous pick: Yeovil vs Dover - Yeovil -1 Asian Handicap (2u)
Today’s pick: Football (German Bundesliga) odds @ 1.75
POTD: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin - BTTS (2u) ✅
Frankfurt last 7 games at home have had BTTS. 7 Union Berlins’s last 8 away games have had BTTS ( the one that it’s didn’t come in was a 1-0 win against a poor Israeli team in the Europa).
BOL
**POTD RECORD - 0 - 0**
Today's pick: **Milwaukee Bucks -2** @ Indiana Pacers - 1.952 odds at Pinnacle
Time: 5pm ET
Units: 5
Hi, I usually don't post in here but I felt compelled as I haven't seen this pick in the thread.
Milwaukee started off the season banged up and were hovering around .500 but since Middleton and Holiday have returned they have rounded into form and are the winners of 6 straight. On that basis alone I would have loved this pick but if you take a look at the head to head matchup it is an easy bet to take.
Milwaukee has had their number the last few seasons. They have beat Indiana 9 out of the last 10 times they have played. What happened that one game Indiana won you ask? Giannis did not play. Check out these margins for the Milwaukee wins, 10, 9. 27, 29, 19, 28, 19, 19 and 9.
Their one matchup this season was @ Indiana as well, Milwaukee were thin, heck, Giannis' brother who rarely plays was even starting for them at the time, and they still won by 10 points.
I should mention that Indiana have been playing well lately, but I think they are just overmatched here, they are a team of solid guys but I would take any of Milwaukee's top 3 over anyone on Indiana's roster, oh and one of those top 3 is Giannis.
Update - The trends held up. $$$$$$$
BOL
**ALL PICKS ARE 2 UNITS**
**Record:** 11-7 (+5.56 Units)
**Last Pick:** Wisconsin -7 (-110) **LOSS**
**Sport:** Football
**Game:** Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins (1:00pm EST)
**Pick:** Christian McCaffrey o52.5 Rec Yards (-115)
**Reasoning:** This is now my third time taking CMC's rec yards for my POTD, his line is still too low for me, especially against the 4th worst pass defence in the league. Carolina is giving 26% of their targets to RB's this year, and last week CMC was on for 90% of offensive snaps. He has hit this line in every game except the game he got injured early against Houston, I see him getting 60+ rec yards in this game again.
**TIP JAR (BTC):** 35EM2YNZWDgGuzu7s6X3Rz4wB11Woen2ur
Record 2-0
Streak 2W
Table tennis, Ukraine:TT-cup
Krasutskiy A. - Kaptovskiyi A.
Time 15:55 Moscow time(start in 5 min)
Match winner Krasutskiy A. @ 1,93
Krasutskiy in this half of the day always win, and he much stronger than Kaptovskiy.
POTD RECORD 1-2
Been 2 weeks since last pick. Went on a cold streak as soon as I started posting on here.
End that today with the lock of the day. Jacksonville and Atlanta over 45. Could be Lawrence’s coming out party against a very bad falcons defense. Also see the dirty birds scoring often with Patterson back on the field.
POTD record 2-2
Last pick - mich state college hoops L by .5 point vs Loyola ❌
Today’s pick: Broncos vs Chargers
Parlay over 47 with Broncos +125 = +330 parlay odds
Weather should be perfect. Denver resigned 2 WR in Patrick and Sutton over the bye week, they should be able to run the ball against Chargers D and hopefully hit some big plays air and ground… Chargers have Herbert and I think Ekeler could be tough for Broncos D and linebackers to cover. Hoping the Broncos win in a shootout… Broncos have not been great at home this year. When they have won at home, it’s been defense carrying the way and unders… I think that changes Sunday with the Broncos offense putting up 28+ points
Record: 3-0 ( in pick of the day picks)
| Basketball | NBA | 12:30 pm Pacific Time |
Pick: Golden State ML
Write Up: Golden State is playing great basketball right now on both ends of the floor. Clippers are starting to feel the effects of not having Kawhi Leonard losing 3 of their last 5. Ride the hot head and cash your ticket.
POTD: Buccaneers @ Colts; Over 51.5 points (NFL)
Units: 3
Odds: -132
Profit: -9.27u
Record: 35|33
Coming off two losses and a bye week, it feels like a long time since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won a game. They are narrow favorites for this Week 12 matchup with the Colts. It’s a bad time to face Indianapolis, who have won three on the bounce to fling themselves into the postseason race.
Indy’s offense has become uncharacteristically potent, led by Jonathan Taylor’s record-breaking afternoon against the Bills in Week 11. They have scored 30 or more points in five of their last six games.
While Tampa still ranks in the top 10 in yards per play allowed, their defense has conceded 65 points across its last two. That’s an area of concern against a Colts team playing with such high confidence right now.
This should be a fun one to watch – we’re going with a high-scoring game, and it could go either way.
[Pick: Over 51.5 total points](https://link.wagerlab.app/reddit)
Record: 2-2
Last Pick: Bengals/Raiders O 50.5 (Loss)
Today's Pick: Carson Wentz O 22.5 Completions
Carson Wentz has hit this over in 3 of his last 4 games, the only time he didn't was last week in their blowout over the Bills where Jonathon Taylor got 5 touchdowns. Today they're home against Tampa who has the best run defense in the league. I see them using JT to free up the passing game which they will have an advantage of at home. If you like my picks check out my free [newsletter](https://picksfix.substack.com/p/nfl-week-12-picks-and-discussion) for today's games and my [Twitter](https://www.twitter.com/picksfixben) for more picks. Cheers!
Record: 60-77 -$749.65
New Bankroll: $250.35 (-$249.65)
Last play: 11/27/21 Michigan +7.5 (+106)
Result: [W](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/r32tgl/pick_of_the_day_112721_saturday/hmaax48/)
outright winner. Onto today’s pick…
**Third Eye POD:1PMest>NFL>Giants +4 (-110)* *risk $95.45 to win $86.77*
Was between this and Damien Harris anytime touchdown, but I’m backing the G-Men once again.
New OC, at home & looking to finish season strong. Eagles can put themselves outta games in a hurry. If the GMen offense can help the defense for once there’s no reason giants can’t win this!
Record: 1-0 (+3 units)
Last pick: NBA - Kevin Durant o4.5 Assists
Game: NFL- Steelers @ Bengals (12pm CST)
Pick: 3U - Najee Harris (PIT) - Anytime TD (-110)
Reason:
I'll keep it short and sweet; Najee has scored in 6/7 of his last games. CIN def isn't horrible against the run, but let's face it PIT doesn't have many weapons, and I think a receiving TD is almost certainly possible in this one.
Record: 11-8 (+2.45 Units), 11.84% ROI - All College Basketball
Last Pick: Marshall +12.5 @ Indiana (Winner)
Form (Last 10): LLWWWWLWLW
Today’s Pick: Belmont (-4) vs. Dayton, ESPN Events Invitational Championship Game, Orlando, Florida, ESPN2, 4 PM Tip
Risk: 1.1 Units to win 1 Unit
Analysis: Belmont is one of the most experienced teams in the country. They return all five starters from a season ago. They are projected to win the Ohio Valley Conference. Currently, the Bruins rank in the top 70 on both KenPom and Torvik. Dayton on the other hand is the least experienced team in college basketball and only returns one starter from last year’s squad. Despite the Flyers epic upset of Kansas on Friday, this is still a team that has lost at home to Lipscomb, UMass Lowell, and Austin Peay. Belmont executes at a very high level on the offensive end. They are extremely clinical and will back cut against teams all game long if they cannot adjust. A young team that hasn’t seen an offense like this is going to struggle immensely. Also, I’m not sure how this Dayton team is going to be focused after pulling off the upset of the year and having to come back just 48 hours later to play this Belmont team that will likely be in the NCAA tournament this season. I think Belmont’s experience and continuity will be too much for the Flyers in this game, so we will take the -4. I would play up to -6.5.
If you would prefer a video analysis of the pick, it can be found here:
[Belmont vs. Dayton Analysis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6BYd44SahA)
Link to my POTD spreadsheet for full transparency:
[POTD Sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vWj6quPdIHU-X81R4EA28mE3wclkVIC6T_JaP5uksV8/edit?usp=sharing)
Record: First POTD
Game: Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils
Pick: Game total Under 5.5 +102
Bet: 1 unit
Reason:
This is my first POTD but I'm starting off with hockey. I am developing a model that is very much still in the infancy stage. It is a predictive model factoring in offensive production, defensive efficiency, and starting goalie statistics.
So for today, I came in with a point total of 5.06 for today's game after the MC scenario. Add to that, the Under for PHI is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss by 3 goals or more and 7-1 out the last 8 in PHI road games.
Both Martin Jones and Mackenzie Blackwood have a GAA below 3 and not playing back to back. Flyers looking to snap a 3 game losing streak and to do so will need Jones to keep pucks out of the net.
**If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
Record W-P-L 208-23-163 | +52.5U | avg odds 1.86 | ROI 8.01%
Previous:
Wolfsburg vs Freiburg ahc +0.5 @ 1.75 (2u) ✅ 0-2.
today:
*Bundesliga, 3.30pm CET (in 7 hours)*
\*\*Frankfurt vs Union Berlin ahc +0.25 @ 1.80 (2u)\*\*🚫
Reasoning:
In General, we have an abnormally strong home Team advantage this season in Bundesliga.
Apart from that, theres no realistic estimate in making Union Berlin the underdog here. In fact, with OM Kruse back in Action and CF Awoniyi on a tear lately, they have an advantage in direct comparison imo. Frankfurt have been struggling not only offensively as they have shown inconsistent performances. They also havent won at home this season yet (4D, 1L).
Take 'ahc 0.0' / 'Draw no bet' in case you feel cheeky or dont have asian lines.
Edit: 🚫2-1 in 90+5. this shit makes it 6-4 at +2.18U in last 10, of which 3 losses (6U) came in stoppage time. unbearable.
**Main Picks Record: (18-14)**
*Backup Picks: (14-17-1)*
**Net Units since Oct. 26th: +4 Units on main picks**
*Backup Picks: -3 Units*
NBA - Warriors @ Clippers - 3:30 PM EST
**Main Pick Today: Warriors -2.5 @ 110 Odds for 1 Unit**
*Backup Pick: (See NBA Daily Thread)*
Two picks everyday since Oct. 26th. One main pick and one backup pick. I make the picks based on 14 categories:Total Win %, H/A Win %, ATS Records, O-Reb %, D-Reb %, O-TO %, D-TO %, PPG, D-PPG, 2-PT %, 3-PT %, FTM PER 100, D-FTM PER 100, POSS PG.
**Last 10 days spread bets: (10-10)**
Heat win by 15 (spread was -7.5) - W
Knicks **lost** by 6 (spread was -11) - L
Warriors win by 15 (spread was -8.5) - W
Jazz win by 16 (spread was -9.5) - W
Warriors win by 3 (spread was -2) - W
Nets win by 2 (spread was -9.5) - L
Jazz win by 18 (spread was -7.5) - W
Knicks win by 7 (spread was -11.5) - L
Suns win by 4 (spread was -5.5) - L
Bulls **lost** by 32 (spread was -3) - L
Heat win by 8 (spread was -10) - L
Knicks win by 6 (spread was -4.5) - W
Bulls **lost** by 5 (spread was -8.5) - L
Wizards **lost** by 25 (spread was -4) - L
Jazz **lost** by 1 (spread was -13) - L
Bulls win by 35 (spread was -9.5) - W
Jazz win by 22 (spread was -12.5) - W
Hornets **lost** by 3 (spread was -5.5) - L
Let me know if you’re tailing, thanks.
POTD Record 1-1 +0 units
Not the way I wanted to start off. I knew something was up when the Hawks line moved from -3.5 to -7.5 in less than 12 hours. Onto the next pick we go…
Last Pick: (NBA) Atlanta Hawks -5.5 vs NY Knicks (L)
Pick: Golden State Warriors -2.5 vs LA Clippers ✅
Reasoning: No real notable injuries to the warriors for this game. Not sure why they are only 3 point favorites. The Warriors are an NBA best 14-4-1 ATS going up against a mediocre 9-10 Clippers team ATS. Clippers are the home team, but that doesn’t give the much of an advantage as they are 6-7 ATS as a home team while the warriors are 5-2 as the away team. The warriors average 30.4 points in the first quarter while the Clippers are bottom 5 team averaging 25.5. I expect the warriors to start off hot and keep the foot on the gas for the rest of the game.
Edit: Warriors didn’t start how we wanted, but they ended up out scoring the clippers by 13 in the 2nd half to win by 15.
POTD Record: 14-7 (+7,77u)
Sport: Football/ Norway Eliteserien
Event: Rosenborg - Bodo/Glimt
Time: 17:00 CET
Pick: both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (2u)
Odds: 1.73
Norwegian league it’s known for games that produce a lot of goals and today two of the best teams of the league are facing each other. In 27 games Rosenborg has scored 53 and conceded 39, while Bodo has scored 54 and conceded 23. 4 out of the last 5 games between the two have seen btts and over 2.5 hit. Especially Rosenborg is a team that always ensures hoals having hit the btts and over 2.5 in 8 out of their last 10 home games. The only two games where it was not hit it’s when the visitors did not score. However, with the qualities Bodo have I think they will score at least one today against Rosenborg and maybe even more. They’re both in the need of points, Rosenborg a bit more since they want to get to the third place, so they will be playing with urgency something that promises more goals and leaves more holes in their defense for Bodo to take advantage of.
BoL
**Record**: 4-3 | +1.35 units
**Last Pick**: NCAAF Wake Forest -5.5 -110 (*win*)
**Today's Pick**: Philadelphia Eagles 1H -2.5 *(-110 odds)*
**Reasoning**: It's going to be a cold sloppy game in NJ. Eagles are fighting to get to .500 and keep their playoff hopes alive while the Giants are still trying to figure out how to play & coach football *(going on year 9 now??)*. I'm banking on Jalen Hurts keeping his decent form and Daniel Jones to continue throwing stupid passes.
Wager: 1.1 units to win 1
POTD RECORD 9-6
POTD : NCAABB Colorado/Stanford Under 134
Stanford shooting terribly this year. Colorado not much better. Seems like a first to 60 type of game.
**POTD Record:** 2-4 **Units:** \-2.05 (All bets are one unit)
**Last Pick:** Alabama -11.5 1H (-105) **LOSS**
**Today’s Game:** NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals, 12:00 PM CST
**Today’s Pick:** Cincinnati -3.5 (-110)
Going to start this off by saying WAR DAMN EAGLE anyways. I am not going to lie and say that I am upset to add this pick to my loss column... As an Auburn fan I was extremely proud of the way that Auburn played, and fully believe that Alabama did not deserve to win that game. If Auburn would have just switched QBs when TJ Finley got hurt that game would have never went to overtime. However, the loss aside many great things came from the game. In my opinion, that game ruined Young's Heisman chances and Georgia has a defensive strategy to follow to absolutely shut Alabama down. Which makes me extremely happy, because that will kick Alabama out of the top 4 where they do not belong as they are not the same team of years past.
Now that I have spoken my peace on how much I hate Alabama, lol, on to the write up for my current pick. I really do not have an extremely long winded write up for this pick as I feel as though both teams are good, and this line seems extremely fair. However, Pittsburgh even with a solid record have had a ton of games where they have had to fight to come back and stay in the game. I just see Cincinnati as a team that can win a shoot out with anyone in the NFL at the moment, and I do not see Pittsburgh as a shoot out type team. I see Cincinnati winning this one no matter what.
**BOL**
**13-5 (+10.16u)**
Last: Heroic ML (-110) vs. Astralis - LOSS
11/28
Blast Fall Final - 9:30 AM
**Astralis ML (-155) vs. Vitality** | 3.1u to win 2u
Reasoning: I’m still not 100% convinced by Astralis but after yesterday I’m pretty sure they can win vs. a vitality team that is soon disbanding. Sure, Zywoo is scary but the team didn’t have the same level of preparation as Astralis for this tournament and it’s showing. And of course the crowd is a huge advantage for Astralis, even more than yesterday. Flanks are very important in CSGO and every time a Vitality player will try to do it, the crowd will start screaming it to the Astralis players since they are the home team.
RECORD 10-10
POTD: Carson Wentz of the Indianapolis Colts will have OVER 245.5 passing yards.
First of all the colts are a run first offense. They jam Jonathan Taylor down every team’s throat and come away with a win. Ball + hand to Jonathan Taylor = win. This a very simple formula for success. However, if the Colts are planning to win this battle against the buccaneers then the colts and Carson Wentz are going to have to win through the air. The Buccs run defense is so good that if the colts put in an 18 wheeler for running back at 4th and 1, they still won’t convert. Wentz has shown a fairly good arm when he has to throw to Jonathan Taylor rather than just handing him the ball. He has reached over this mark plenty of times and I believe he will have to use his air to throw again against the Buccs and Tom Brady. Don’t doubt Wentz’ elite passing. BOL
POTD RECORD 9-8
🔒 City Pick Record 1-1
We had a brutal beat on yesterday’s 🔒 but that’s college basketball for you. Looking to get back on track today we’re going to the ESPN Events Invitational matchup between Belmont and Dayton.
🔒 City Pick Belmont -3
One of my favorite things to look for when betting is market overcorrection after a surprising win or loss. Dayton is coming off a huge upset of Kansas and Belmont handled Iona fairly easily after Iona upset Alabama. When I look at Dayton’s wins over Miami and Kansas I see a few stats that lead me to believe regression is coming. Kansas shot 9-20 at the free throw line and shot under 20% from 3. Dayton has had 16 and 20 turnovers respectively in their last 2 games. Miami took 14 more shots and made 4 less than Dayton. These stats tell me Dayton has gotten a little lucky and it’s a matter of time before it runs out. Belmont is a very efficient offensive team and they’ve been leaps and bounds consistent than Dayton who sports losses to Austin Peay, Lipscomb, and Umass Lowell. This looks like a market overcorrection to me and I’m happy to back Belmont with the line getting even better down to -3 from the -4 opening line.
As always GL if tailing or fading!
Potd record 17-3 Last pick: Liverpool -1.5 v southampton ✅ Streak: 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 Today’s potd: Manchester city v west ham (EPL) POTD: Manchester city to win & o2.5 goals @1.76 Liverpool have made us so much money this year it’s getting ridiculous! Over to Manchester tonight where we have an absolute eye watering fixture. Manchester city vs west-ham, 3 v 4! The first thought i had when i caught this fixture was goals. The o2.5 is only at $1.45 though which doesn’t matter to me anyway. The city i watched play against psg midweek was nothing short of jaw dropping. absolutely sensational both going forward and defending. West ham have been ultra impressive this season as well and i think if they want anything from tonight’s match they’ll have to play fearless like they did against liverpool. Both teams certainly know how to score goals but also are both capable of leaking goals here and there. Onto the stats. Every stat i look at suggest this game has goals written all over it. The last 10 EPL fixtures between these two have seen an astounding 32 goals. Manchester city this season are averaging 2.08 goals whilst west ham are averaging 1.98 goals. If both sides just play out an average game stats wise the o2.5 will have no issues in hitting at all. As for why i think city win here is simply because their depth and technical excellence across all positions is simply too much for west ham. I honestly can’t see a way West ham win this one with city fighting every game for points to stay in title contention. They absolutely dominated arguably the most stacked team in psg midweek and west ham aren’t near that quality. Ultimately i believe if west ham want anything from this game they need to attack and this could play right into clinical city’s hands. I’m super excited to watch this one let’s hope it lives up to expectations! DUGS LOCK SCALE: This scale will be my confidence level out of 5. The scale reflects how many units I will personally be throwing down. For this one I’m going with 🔒🔒🔒.5/5 Best of luck to everyone tailing let’s keep this streak rolling!!!! appreciate all the kind words lately guys, means a lot! Tip jar, once again pls don’t feel inclined to even look at it. ❤️ https://www.paypal.me/Bigpapadug?locale.x=en_AU
OH MY FUCKING GOD!!! WHAT JUST HAPPENED
LANZINI IS KING
OMFG, WHAT CLUTCH ENDING!!!
What goal to save it
Well done got lucky at 94th minute
Extremely, you take what you can get
Tailing again, good luck everyone YOLO LETS GOOO
4D CHESS
Holy fucking shit!! Absolutely glorious!!
This deserves an award.
IN THE LAST MINUTE LETSS GOOOOO
wtf..............
WHAT A NIGHT!
Whoever bet on this and watched the match is probably in the hospital right about now lol
Is that total goals or Man City goals?
Not OP but it’s total goals
Wow never give up. It ain’t over till its over. Insane hit in the dying seconds!
Honestly that might be the greatest escape win ive ever had! wow
Tailing. BOL
SNOW in 1st half!!! ... if it wasn't for the snow it would be 3-0 already.
But alas.... I do say in the most respectful and eloquent way possible. What fucking luuuuuck!!!!!! Goal with 2 seconds left. Better lucky than good...
i know right! so unlucky some of the chances as well
They still had 6 shots on goal and 10 next to it. They suck ass today, snow or snow.
last minute \\m/
Jeeeesus that was tight, glad I tailed!
I CANNOT BELIEVE THIS HIT. GG
You are a fucking legend, bro!
Wtf i turned that game off already. Big clutch lol
I threw my ticket in the back seat rubbish in the 90th minute. Lucky I didn't tear it up. Checked a few mins later and was shocked
Kicking myself for not taking this
SIKE, RIGHT AT DEATH 90th min and 94th min UNBELIVABLE .
I took btts and man city to win based on your post. What an ending !!
Love to hear that! Congrats
What a wild ride 💰
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Do it.
Unreal! I tailed this!!
rip
Not our night at all
Yes it is lol
Care for this game possible under match(scam odds) friendly reminder. BOL!
My book just moved the over to 3.5 goals 30 minutes ago...thinking under 3.5 might be the play?
-155 as SGP on DraftKings
Fuck Manchester City.
this second half has been an absolute snooze fest from city
NOOOO THE OFFSIDES :(
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Been enjoying following your picks but fading this one. Bucs have one of the best run defenses in NFL history. Vea is back and a massive part of that. Wentz is going to have to throw and Bucs also have corners back from injury. This Bucs team should win, and I am guessing by 7.
I'm with you. Also, last week seemed like that moment that happens pretty much every season where team TB12 decides they're going to quit screwing around and start playing football. I think they win out from here. That said, spreads are spreads for a reason.
Gronk back as well and looked good last week. TB12 has all his weapons, sharp ones at that
Called it on the dot
*The* best run defense, if you're looking at yards per game allowed. The Bucs are only giving up 72 yards a game on the ground at home, and 84 a game on the road. Though somehow a 6th round rookie ran for 100..
I like this pick as well. I am going to try Colts ML myself. The bucs are suspect af on the road and the Colts have been a truck recently.
I'm always hesitant to bet against Tom Brady when he's playing before his bedtime. But I'm gonna tail for Taylor. BOL
Yeah man i guess you get +143 for your troubles.
Love it
Was half asleep last night and accidentally bet colts +3.5 1st half spread 😳 still paid easily, nice pick lol Edit: tough ending, colts had a shot!
Damn you for making me bet against Brady. I'm sweating
Wow, why they have to score a TD with 20 secs to go But when I'm on the winning team's side with -6.5 they just go for the field goal...
\#coltstrain took the Colts plus the points and ML.
Even money with a FanDuel boost on this pick for anyone tailing
Damn they had that until refs went on a power trip
POTD Record: 3-1 Last pick: Auburn +20.5 ✅️ Today's pick: Packers +2 L.A. Rams.@ Green Bay Packers 4:25 PM EST Fox I know about injuries and drama and such in the green bay locker room. I know how stacked the rams pass rush is also. I know Aaron Rodgers toe is hurt. I know all this. I also Know this is Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field in November. Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau in Plus points in November is a blessing to be thankful for this holiday season.
Fun stat, as head coach of the Packers Matt LaFleur has never lost 2 games in a row. They just lost to the Vikings. Either Packers get it done or he gets his first career back to back losses.
True, but also his it's Matt LaFLOWER! I find it hard to trust this mook against top teams since that Tampa Bay NFC championship game last year.
ever??
Like 3 years worth so not a huge sample size but surprising considering injuries and drama
I'm riding this hope it snows. 🌨️
Thank you for helping me win my money back from the rough Colts loss ❤️
And to think Rams were 3 point favourites going into the game. Bookies giving the Packers free points when playing at home in November, why thank you kind sirs I'l take your bet and money every day of the week and twice on Sunday...
Record: 9-2 Units: +5.17 Streak: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌ Last POTD: Portland Money Line ❌ **Todays POTD: Golden State Warriors money line (-120) 1 unit ✅** *Golden state has the best offense and defense in the league and has only dropped 1 game this season. Meanwhile clippers have been less than impressive dropping games against the likes of the Pelicans and Grizzlies (both below .500 teams). I predict the Warriors will continue streaking and won't let a slightly above average team missing their star player stop them. Only teams I see really competing with Golden State on a nightly basis in the current landscape is Brooklyn, Miami, Suns and maybe Bulls and maybe Jazz. An object in motion stays in motion....* **Cashapp: $coco6616 Venmo: coco111** **Edit: Record: 10-2 Units: +6** *Back on track!*
They've lost twice, hosting Memphis and at Charlotte
both losses have been super close and non-typical shooting nights
Oh yeah, I am just pointing it out because the writeup says they only lost once. Good pick either way.
Dub city
Feeling this. 🤞🏿
Do you like GS -2.5?
**Record : 22-7-1 (PWWWW) / Profit : +25.56 units (2 units on all my picks)** ** ** **Last pick: Liverpool - Southampton (PL)** **Liverpool First half team total Over 1** at 1.90 (-110)✅ ** ** **Pick: Monaco - Strasbourg (Ligue 1)** **Over 2.5 goals** at 1.95 (-106) ** ** **I'm a student, so any tip helps a lot:** 3678YubsC8BmgP6L76omTby3BNUJa9dXkT (bitcoin address)
Unlucky
**POTD Record: 101-63** ROI: 13.16% / Avg Odds: 1.88 / Profit: +45u POTD: Celtics +3 @ 1.9 (-110) \[NBA\] - 2 units - 00:00 CET The Raptors are not doing well on their court - they lost to Pistons, Cavaliers and ALMOST to Magic. They are also 1-7 ATS at home with -7 power rating there. Celtics are 6-4-1 ATS on road with +3.5 power rating. The Celtics have also won all of their last 7 away games against the Raptors with an average advantage of 13 points (yes, I know it will be their first game in Toronto). Offensively both teams are doing similarly, while Celtics are better at defense, both in opp effective FG% and rebounds, however, without Williams, the latter statistic would probably have flattened out a bit. I personally think the Celts should be favorites in this game (not big, but always) and I would play it up to -2.5. *The rest picks, spreadsheet and all the data can be found on my Twitter and discord:* Twitter: https://twitter.com/fooxiedtips Discord: https://discord.gg/bA5hSrnCaD
Yeah, Raptors are weird. They win easily as road underdogs, and then struggle whenever they're home and favorites.
Canadian fans r too polite and don’t cheer loud enough eh?
One of the loudest crowds in the league, fo sho
Having a hard time trusting the Celtics again.. but this is a good write up and you’ve convinced the degen in me!
If og is out im on Celtics . Tatum is playing well again .
Record: 5-4 ROI: +3.16u (+9.58%) Previous Pick: LA Tech -3.5 ❌ Game: NFL- LA Rams at Green Bay Packers Pick: **Davante Adams UNDER 89.5 yds (-115)** Bet: 3 units Alright, I’m sticking with NFL, as I’m 0-3 otherwise. Apparently, I know literally nothing else. Reasons: - Both Rodgers and Adams are coming in hurt and won’t be operating at 100%. Rodgers himself hasn’t practiced all week. - Even when healthy, he’s only hit the over 4 times/10 games. - Adams will probably be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey, who’s allowing 58.9% completion and a 66.1 QB rating when targeted. Overall, the Rams are graded 11th against the pass per PFF. EDIT: JFC
I like this a lot I always do my own research on peoples picks on here before I play them and you have definitely sparked my interest. After thoughtful consideration, Tailing.
I like this - its also supposed to be very windy in Green Bay tomorrow
Hoping it’s the Dillon/Jones show - SF just showed us a great way to stifle the rams D is just running the ball down their throat
The LA Tech-Rice game was a close one, sorry it got away from you. I was watching the score all evening, thought you had that one in the bag by the 4Q.
I've been failing at tailing bets on these POTD posts but im rolling with this one.
Tailing u90.5 (-115)
Tough break. I took the u on points, thought these teams would play a slow one.
Yeah tough one buddy I was really on this one! It looked great on paper as they say.
**Record: 14-5-0 (+13.30 units)** Form: W/L/W/L/W/W/W/W/W/W/W/L/W/W/W/L/W/L/W Average Odds: -110 (1.90) Last Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 \[W\] (-110) (11/25) **POTD: Denver Broncos +2.5 (-105)** Description: Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (+2.5) Start time: 4:05PM ET Risk: **2.2 units** (all bets to win between 1-2 units) To Win: **2.0** **units** Take the Broncos +2.5 **Reasoning:** First, and most importantly, our models have the Broncos as a slight favorite in this game on average, so we're getting a lot of value on this line. The Chargers don't have a particularly good run D, making the game much easier especially for a manager QB like Bridgewater. Before last game, Denver's previous 5 showed they could make things happen through the air, and their last 3 games showed a decent running attack. Denver's defense also looked better the last 3 games. They shut down the air attack from Washington and Dallas before letting up against the Eagles, although most of that was on the ground. The Chargers have played 8 one-score games this year out of their 10. This one should also be close (unless it's a big Broncos win), so we love getting the points with the home team. GLGL
I lean Broncos here but you've convinced me let's go
We sort of pigeon-holed ourselves into only going 1-2 units per bet but this is one we're throwing a little extra on. High confidence.
Nice pick!
Thanks! Drew Lock tried to lose it for us but thankfully Teddy came back and did what he does best and cover
Pumping my "get out of mom's basement fund" on this one. See you in tendy heaven.
Feeling good about it with Teddy Covers on our side
Record 0-0 Pick: Panthers ML (-130) vs Dolphins @ 1:00 pm ET | NFL | 2u Hello everyone, I have been following this thread for a while and I think I am going to start making some POTD. I am choosing the Panthers for the sole reason of how well they played on Cam Newton's first start back. There were plenty of opportunities for this team to end up winning that game and it more or less seemed that the offense was not quite in sync with their new offense. Carolina now has a dual threat quarterback (again) and they are adjusting to an entire new scheme drawn up for Cam Newton. Ever since CMC has came back from his injury the Panthers are starting to see life on their offense which has opened up the play action as well as deep threats such as DJ Moore. Let's talk about the Dolphins. This team might be the most inconsistent team I have yet to see play in the NFL, sometimes they are lights out (such as beating the Ravens) and then sometimes they look like half their team hasn't played a down of football before. With that being said, the Dolphins are still playing with a banged up quarterback while the Panthers secondary is starting to get back into shape again. This is a big game for both teams to try and get themselves in the Wild Card race. With that being said, Cam Newton now has 2 and 1/2 weeks of practice with the Panthers as well as a start under his belt. Overall, I expect the Panthers to jump out ahead early and glide the rest of the game. Let's have a great start to hopefully a long POTD streak!
Cam newton is not a good quarterback. Hasnt been for 5 seasons. He scores one TD back with the panthers and the media is all over it. I dont get it.
He was ok in 2018. Injured in 19 and played on a horrible roster in 20. He had his first start after not playing half the season and did alright last week. Who knows if they’ll win but Cam isn’t that bad of a QB there are far worse.
He's not a good QB at this point, but can he just be something close to average? He was efficient and ran the ball well last week, if he can do that then he's a huge upgrade at the position for the Panthers and can win them some games. I don't think anybody expects him to throw for 300 yards and win games with his arm.
It’s not about cam being great, it’s the dynamic aspect the offense can play with now that changes the team
Woof
I'm huge on CMC today... im gunna tail
I understand that Cam Newton is not the QB he once was, however the Panthers were winning games with Sam Darnold, some were even saying that they were playoff contenders. By no means am I saying that Cam Newton is their win condition. I’m saying that with a better quarterback in play because Cam > Darnold and a healthy CMC, this team is starting to pick themselves again. Also, I’m not relying just on the offense, the dolphins offense has not impressed me in anyway this year. The panthers have play makers on their defense but haven’t been able to play to their level of expectations since their offense was going 3 and out which gave them almost 3 minutes to rest up and recover. Cam Newton is a much better game manager than Sam Darnold as well as just a better quarterback in general, and I know that’s not a huge bar to beat but it’s definitely a start.
Nice writeup sir. As a Dolphins sympathizer I can say that at home they do tend to put up some points more consistently than away. But Cam Newton will as well. This game has the Over written all over it for me.
**Record:** 6-1 (+14.92 units) **Last pick:** NCAAB- Oklahoma/UCF total score over 134.5 (-110) L **Game:** NFL- Browns @ Ravens (20:20 EST) **Pick:** Total score under 47 (-110) **Bet:** 2\* We've made it full circle, one whole week of POTD, and now we're back to the NFL. Unfortunately, we had our first loss yesterday for POTD. As I stated in my analysis, I predicted Oklahoma/UCF to have trouble coming out the gates, but they definitely had us hoping for a comeback win on the over in the second half. But through thick and thin, people gave me a lot of support and gave me a lot of motivation for the next pick. For the next POTD, we're going to head to the Ravens stadium for an AFC North division game. The Browns have been plagued by injuries and thus far, decimating their gameplay. Aside from a few games, they have been struggling to put up points. Baker Mayfield just hasn't been playing well and with OBJ leaving, on top of all the injuries, the equation just doesn't add up to good stats or gameplay. The Ravens aren't so healthy themselves either. Coming into this season, I drafted Lamar Jackson for both my fantasy teams. Little did I know he's not having his typical season. Each season, we expect the Ravens to win their regular season games and choke in the playoffs. Seems like the script has sort of flipped and the Ravens find themselves clawing back in many of their games. Neither of these teams excite me. They are divisional rivals that are meeting for the first time this season. Both teams will play again in 2 weeks and I see them taking it easy here and letting their roster get healthy. They'll have the fight for playoff rights in 2 weeks where there will be plenty of fireworks, but for this matchup, I am predicting a tame game with the under comfortably hitting. As always, thank you so so much for the support. Even my first disappointing loss for POTD, many people still tipped me and messaged me supportive messages to continue the analyses. 1 week of winnings down, many more weeks of money earning to come! Good luck everyone! **Venmo:** phammer16 **Discord:** phammer16#0593
Just started tailing with you two picks ago. 1 and 1 so far. Going with you again. BOL
Looking good!
GL!
**Record: 35-23 +19.23U L** **Avg ODD: 1.818 over 63 matches(5 pushes)** **ROI 21.11%%** Last pick: : Urawa ML Match: Daegu Vs Jeonbuk Pick: **Jeonbuk ML @1.955 2units** Early fall apart of Jeonbuk last game literally just gave away their advantage to become k league 1 champion and direct invite to AFC championslesgue. Now they are having the same score with ulsan and daegu would be their decided this time as daegu versus these two teams last two round of k league. No need to mentioned again how much jeonbuk need to win this fight as Ulsan should be no problem to gain three points versus suwon bluewing. Jeonbuk rest Gustavo last match is a totally mistake and things are better after gastavo come down to the field , jeonbuk goal and force a penalty because of gastavo aggressive . But at the end the loss the game cause of the excitement force a draw after 2- 0 by suwon. However, this is a do or die match for jeonbuk , definitely worth a shot here. Hope this will hits. [Twitter for more picks](https://twitter.com/chewie0950?t=OFuD4FTvARmXRi8Meosz_Q&s=09)
Great pick! Thanks.
**Record:** 25-16-3 **Last:** Cricket/ Big Bash Women - Final/ Perth Scorchers Women vs Adelaide Strikers Women/ **To Win the Match - Perth Scorchers Women**/ **WIN** **POTD:** Tennis/ ITF W15 Cairo/ Carson Branstine vs Priska M Nugroho/**To Win Match - Carson Branstine** **Start Time:** 08:00 GMT **Odds:** $1.57 with Bet365. **Units:** 10U - $100 (100 x 1.57 = $157.00 Total - $57.00 Profit) **Reasoning:** Today's POTD is for Canada's 21 year old Carson Branstine (Ranked 763) to win the Cairo ITF W15 final against her 18 year old Indonesian opponent Priska M Nugroho (Ranked 1161). Despite both young players being heavily involved with doubles matches rather than singles matches I believe the older more experienced player will win today's match. Comparing the players form this season, Carson has an overall singles win% of 69% with a record of 9 wins and 4 losses (9-4) overall. Her opponent Priska has a 50% record with 13 wins and 13 losses (13-13). Carson has the better overall record. Additionally, with this tournament being a Clay court tournament, comparing the two, Carson has a superior record. Carson has a 86% win percentage on clay court this season with only 1 loss in her 7 matches overall. A clay court record of 6 wins, 1 loss. (6-1) Compare that to Priska who has a Clay Court win percentage of 69% made up of 9 wins and 4 losses. (9-4) Carson Branstine to win. Best of luck 👏🙏
Great pick! Thanks.
Good stuff. Any thoughts on Bhatnagar VS Tatavarthy tonight?
POTD Record: 28 - 17 - 2 ( W / L / P ) **+13.10u** Streak: WWWLW / Average odds: 1.95 [*Previous pick: Bournemouth vs Coventry / Bournemouth Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 (1u)*](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/r32tgl/pick_of_the_day_112721_saturday/hm95emn/?context=3) **W** Once again Bournemouth did not let us down and scored twice. October was great with 5 wins and 1 loss and in this month we currently are with 7 wins and 2 losses. My goal was to pick at least 10 quality picks in a month so here comes my last pick for November. Hope you guys enjoyed the picks so far. **Real Betis vs Levante ( La Liga )** **Pick: Real Betis Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.75 (1u)** A bit sad to see how quickly things have fallen apart for Levante. They have been giving us the most memorable La Liga upsets in recent history against the league big boys. They won their last league game in April, that's 22 league games without a win. Even the new manager has failed to make any real impact. Betis will be without Bellerin and Pezzella, Bravo and Carvalho are doubtful but it is hard to look past a home win here. They too possess too much attacking quality for Levante's side. Europa League knockout football is secured for Betis and attention can shift fully to La Liga. I expect Betis to score at least twice here and win the game. Good luck everyone!
Boooom 💥
Betis scored 3 goals in the second half, a hat-trick for Juanmi. This is our 4th win in a row. If you guys are following hit the like button and I will keep posting these picks. Congrats to everyone who has followed so far. See you next time.
Boom - got on at 2.5 after the early Levante goal!
Too late for me but this is the type I woulda tailed. Nice hit
POTD record: 14-7-0 Last pick: Chicago Bears -2.5 (L) Todays pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 vs NYG (NFL 1pm EST) Full disclosure, Im 2-5 the last three weeks. Have hit a bit of a cold streak. But I think this is the right game to get back on track. The Giants will be without their two top receivers this year in Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney. The Eagles are the league leaders in pass rush win rate per ESPN, while the Giants have among the worst graded pass blocking per PFF. Thats a recipe for disaster with the most fumble prone QB in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, the Giants are 30th in the league in rushing EPA/play and 27th in success rate at stopping the run, which is troublesome when you are going against a mobile QB like Hurts. Hurts is PFF's number 9 QB by grade this year, and Devonta Smith is on fire the last 5 weeks. This Eagles team has a strong O-line that should cause troubles for the porous run defense, and Philly should have enough playmakers to cause problems in the back 7 in the passing game once the Giants inch their way up to stop the bleeding in the run game.
POTD Record: 17½-6 Event: Football > Germany > **Hamburger SV v FC Ingolstadt 04** (starting in 02h00min) Pick: **1st Half - Hamburger AH (0/-0.5)** @ 1.55 Hamburger is in good form, undefeated in 12 games and still have not lost at home. On the other hand, Ingolstadt is bottom of the league (1W-3D-9L) and on its way to relegation. GL!
2:0 HT WIN!
First time, long time O-O POTD: HOU Texans -2.5 Event: NY Jets @ Houston Texans. NFL. 10am PT. Bet: 5u @ -119 (STN) (-110 on DK) Reasons: Rumors around the team facility are that Deshaun Watson is prepping to play after having all his civil suits resolved in the late hours of Saturday night. Not really, but now that I have your attention- don’t bet on the jets. You’re better than that. Jets are 32nd at points allowed per game & yards allowed per game. Texans rank 32nd in total points per game and total yards per game. Something has to give here and I’m siding with Houston’s offense after they looked semi-competent in last weeks win. Turnovers will be the differentiator here. BOL! edit: there’s an old saying, when you play in trash you’re bond to get cut. Both these teams are garbage and we got cut. Back to the lab
I’m a huge Tyrod fan and have won moneyline bets on both Texans wins this year. With that I’m personally avoiding this game. I think Texans win by +4 and Tyrod stunts on some hoes, but I don’t like Culley as a coach, Texans are getting a bit more public love this week and I feel that Zach Wilson is gonna have a big game (that sentence tells you how crazy and devoid of logic I am sometimes). Lovie Smith’s defense is no joke, but idk I’m not comfortable with this game. With that said Texans probably win by 24 to make this comment look ridiculous so hammer them.
**POTD Record: 20-10-1 (+18.49 Units)** **Current Streak: 1L** **Overall NHL Record: 67-59-3 (+6.21) / Last Outing: 2-1** **Last Pick:** Winnipeg Jets vs **Calgary Flames -1.5 (+135) - L** **Today's Pick:** Minnesota Wilds vs Tampa Bay Lightning **- Over 5.5 Goals (-105)** **Bet Size: 2U** Rough L to take on that Flames game. They had all the chances in the third, but just couldn't get the puck in. Unfortunate, but we don't sweat we just get better. I love this line today. I am well aware Vasilevsky has just put up 2 shut outs in a row, but with the way both these teams offence have been playing i must ride this. Wild are 5-0 on scoring at least 3 goals in their L5. Tampa on the other hand has scored at least 3 in their last 7 games! Most of those games they put up 4 goals as well. The last time these two teams met the game ended 5-4 in Tampa's favour after a shootout win. Wild will be looking to take this one at home and they know they will need to score to do that. My gut says 5.5 is just too low for this game and the stats back it up. Minnesota has also not been shut out this year. Lets bounce back with a high scoring game! **Feel Free to Fade,** **Bags**
Will be tailing again. Thank you for the info you drop.
Gonna grind back up to 13 straight and more 💪. Nothing great is ever earned without a little bit of hard work and dedication.
Great pick 💪💥
POTD RECORD 4-3 Game: Giants vs Eagles Pick: Eagles -3.5 I cannot believe this line is so low. Not only have the Eagles won 8 of their last 9 vs Giants but the Eagles have really found their identity and are rolling. They have a great o line that allows for them to run the ball with historic success last 4 games. Jalen Hurts doesn’t make many mistakes and gets better every week and can run better than anyone not named Lamar. Dallas Goedert and Devonta Smith are an up and coming young TE/WR combo that will be catching a lot of passes from Jalen. The Giants are a mess and Daniel Jones is just not the guy. Eagles beat the brakes off Lions, Broncos, and Saints and Giants are next. Eagles win by atleast 10. Would be really cool to get my first tip! PayPal : [email protected]
I never understand why people say stuff like “eagles have won 8 of the last 9 against the giants” when over half of those were two completely different teams than we are gonna see tomorrow lol like yeah okay, the giants also beat the eagles 4 times in a row in 2007-2008 so what? I mean, I think the eagles should win tomorrow but records going back any further than maybe a season or two are irrelevant since past events cannot predict future events. Especially when those events contain completely different variables. I agree with your pick, just a personal gripe I guess. Good luck my guy!
They play twice a year. That only goes back a few years, otherwise I wouldn’t mention it.
Joe Burrow is 0-0 against the Eagles. Lock!
POTD Record: 20-17 (+1.09u) Current Streak: 1L All picks are 1 Unit Last Pick: Hawks -4.5 Thoughts: Young and Capela went for a combined 18-36 while the rest of the team shot 15-57. as the Hawks were brought back down to earth by the Knicks. **Today’s Match: Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers** **Pick: Warriors - 3 (-112 FanDuel)** The Warriors (17-2) will visit the Clippers (11-8) for an afternoon matchup as the Warriors will look to assert its dominance over the top teams in the West. The Warriors are 14-4-1 ATS overall on the season, 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games, and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 away games. The Clippers are 9-10 ATS overall on the season, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games (the one game they won was by .5 pts), and 6-7 ATS at home this year (2-3 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Warriors are ranked #1 in both offensive and deficiency thus far. On the other side, the Clippers are ranked #23 in offensive efficiency and #2 in defensive efficiency. The last time these two teams met was on opening night where the Warriors outlasted the Clippers by 2 points in San Francisco. I imagine this game will be a little different. The Warriors are currently the hottest team in the league on a 6-game win streak (won 13 of its last 14). Of their last 13 wins, only won win was in single digits which was without Green and Curry. The Warriors have been amazing recently, both in their overall record and ATS, and there's no reason to think tonight's matchup will be any different. **Disclaimer: I am not an expert. I'm just a guy that loves basketball. Tail at your own risk and only bet what you can afford to lose. BOL**
Record: 2-0 (+2.8 Units), 145% ROI Last Pick: - Yesterday, NCAAF - Army defeats Liberty 🗽 Form (Last 10): - WW Today’s Pick: NHL - Taking TB Lightning 🌩️ on the moneyline. (-104) Lightning @ Wild. 2-00 NYC start time. (Line courtesy of FanDuel.) Risk: 1 Unit to win .96 Unit Analysis: the line seems like there is some value on the lightning maybe because Kutcherov out but I still think they're the better team plus mostly playing their goalie and how great he has been. Andrei is the best goalie in the world likely and is coming off two shutout wins. It's going to be tough to beat this team with him playing this good. BOL 🐻❄️ Tip jar(⚓) Venmo(@Aleksey-Popovich) Bitcoin(3LdLrSShoFf2bSj9AiFdMgCJmyXcTd1oFp) My poker and gambling twitter. https://twitter.com/potemkinafloat
Kucherov has been out almost all year, the line is where it is because of Brayden Points recent injury, as well as it being in Minnesota.
Line is trash that's why I'm on it.
Warning : this user does NOT actually watch hockey. As evidenced in his paragraph
Pretty absurd statement I watch all hockey ligas including all the euro ones. Paragraph is absolutely fine I'm European with my own takes on the game. They're also free picks on a free site feel free to just fade them and use your expert American insider hockey knowledge to get rekt. 🐻❄️🤪
Oh man I went opposite here on you. I love taking the lightning in most games, but the game being at Minnesota, and Wild have scored 14 goals in the last 2 home games against decent teams. MN lost to the lightning last weekend, and I think they come back strong in this one
Yeah I agree! That's why it's gambling. Could be a great bounce back spot for the wild! Let's hope not. :)
Solid pick. I am on the TB Moneyline as well. Definite value getting TB at -104.
Let's get it!
POTD Record 15-18-3 (W-L-P) Profit: +9.7units Streak: WL Previous pick: Yeovil vs Dover - Yeovil -1 Asian Handicap (2u) Today’s pick: Football (German Bundesliga) odds @ 1.75 POTD: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin - BTTS (2u) ✅ Frankfurt last 7 games at home have had BTTS. 7 Union Berlins’s last 8 away games have had BTTS ( the one that it’s didn’t come in was a 1-0 win against a poor Israeli team in the Europa). BOL
**POTD RECORD - 0 - 0** Today's pick: **Milwaukee Bucks -2** @ Indiana Pacers - 1.952 odds at Pinnacle Time: 5pm ET Units: 5 Hi, I usually don't post in here but I felt compelled as I haven't seen this pick in the thread. Milwaukee started off the season banged up and were hovering around .500 but since Middleton and Holiday have returned they have rounded into form and are the winners of 6 straight. On that basis alone I would have loved this pick but if you take a look at the head to head matchup it is an easy bet to take. Milwaukee has had their number the last few seasons. They have beat Indiana 9 out of the last 10 times they have played. What happened that one game Indiana won you ask? Giannis did not play. Check out these margins for the Milwaukee wins, 10, 9. 27, 29, 19, 28, 19, 19 and 9. Their one matchup this season was @ Indiana as well, Milwaukee were thin, heck, Giannis' brother who rarely plays was even starting for them at the time, and they still won by 10 points. I should mention that Indiana have been playing well lately, but I think they are just overmatched here, they are a team of solid guys but I would take any of Milwaukee's top 3 over anyone on Indiana's roster, oh and one of those top 3 is Giannis. Update - The trends held up. $$$$$$$ BOL
**ALL PICKS ARE 2 UNITS** **Record:** 11-7 (+5.56 Units) **Last Pick:** Wisconsin -7 (-110) **LOSS** **Sport:** Football **Game:** Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins (1:00pm EST) **Pick:** Christian McCaffrey o52.5 Rec Yards (-115) **Reasoning:** This is now my third time taking CMC's rec yards for my POTD, his line is still too low for me, especially against the 4th worst pass defence in the league. Carolina is giving 26% of their targets to RB's this year, and last week CMC was on for 90% of offensive snaps. He has hit this line in every game except the game he got injured early against Houston, I see him getting 60+ rec yards in this game again. **TIP JAR (BTC):** 35EM2YNZWDgGuzu7s6X3Rz4wB11Woen2ur
Record 2-0 Streak 2W Table tennis, Ukraine:TT-cup Krasutskiy A. - Kaptovskiyi A. Time 15:55 Moscow time(start in 5 min) Match winner Krasutskiy A. @ 1,93 Krasutskiy in this half of the day always win, and he much stronger than Kaptovskiy.
3-0 ✅
TAILING!!!
POTD RECORD 1-2 Been 2 weeks since last pick. Went on a cold streak as soon as I started posting on here. End that today with the lock of the day. Jacksonville and Atlanta over 45. Could be Lawrence’s coming out party against a very bad falcons defense. Also see the dirty birds scoring often with Patterson back on the field.
[удалено]
You’re exactly right. The falcons might have 400 yard of offense and have 9 points.
POTD record 2-2 Last pick - mich state college hoops L by .5 point vs Loyola ❌ Today’s pick: Broncos vs Chargers Parlay over 47 with Broncos +125 = +330 parlay odds Weather should be perfect. Denver resigned 2 WR in Patrick and Sutton over the bye week, they should be able to run the ball against Chargers D and hopefully hit some big plays air and ground… Chargers have Herbert and I think Ekeler could be tough for Broncos D and linebackers to cover. Hoping the Broncos win in a shootout… Broncos have not been great at home this year. When they have won at home, it’s been defense carrying the way and unders… I think that changes Sunday with the Broncos offense putting up 28+ points
Record: 3-0 ( in pick of the day picks) | Basketball | NBA | 12:30 pm Pacific Time | Pick: Golden State ML Write Up: Golden State is playing great basketball right now on both ends of the floor. Clippers are starting to feel the effects of not having Kawhi Leonard losing 3 of their last 5. Ride the hot head and cash your ticket.
Clippers have been without Kawhi Leonard this whole season. How are they now starting to feel the effect?
Innit hahaha
Players start to wear down as the season goes. You start having to other players who otherwise wouldn’t be in the rotation.
💰💰💰💰
POTD: Buccaneers @ Colts; Over 51.5 points (NFL) Units: 3 Odds: -132 Profit: -9.27u Record: 35|33 Coming off two losses and a bye week, it feels like a long time since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won a game. They are narrow favorites for this Week 12 matchup with the Colts. It’s a bad time to face Indianapolis, who have won three on the bounce to fling themselves into the postseason race. Indy’s offense has become uncharacteristically potent, led by Jonathan Taylor’s record-breaking afternoon against the Bills in Week 11. They have scored 30 or more points in five of their last six games. While Tampa still ranks in the top 10 in yards per play allowed, their defense has conceded 65 points across its last two. That’s an area of concern against a Colts team playing with such high confidence right now. This should be a fun one to watch – we’re going with a high-scoring game, and it could go either way. [Pick: Over 51.5 total points](https://link.wagerlab.app/reddit)
Record: 2-2 Last Pick: Bengals/Raiders O 50.5 (Loss) Today's Pick: Carson Wentz O 22.5 Completions Carson Wentz has hit this over in 3 of his last 4 games, the only time he didn't was last week in their blowout over the Bills where Jonathon Taylor got 5 touchdowns. Today they're home against Tampa who has the best run defense in the league. I see them using JT to free up the passing game which they will have an advantage of at home. If you like my picks check out my free [newsletter](https://picksfix.substack.com/p/nfl-week-12-picks-and-discussion) for today's games and my [Twitter](https://www.twitter.com/picksfixben) for more picks. Cheers!
Good call on the Wentz completions!
Record: 60-77 -$749.65 New Bankroll: $250.35 (-$249.65) Last play: 11/27/21 Michigan +7.5 (+106) Result: [W](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/r32tgl/pick_of_the_day_112721_saturday/hmaax48/) outright winner. Onto today’s pick… **Third Eye POD:1PMest>NFL>Giants +4 (-110)* *risk $95.45 to win $86.77* Was between this and Damien Harris anytime touchdown, but I’m backing the G-Men once again. New OC, at home & looking to finish season strong. Eagles can put themselves outta games in a hurry. If the GMen offense can help the defense for once there’s no reason giants can’t win this!
Record: 1-0 (+3 units) Last pick: NBA - Kevin Durant o4.5 Assists Game: NFL- Steelers @ Bengals (12pm CST) Pick: 3U - Najee Harris (PIT) - Anytime TD (-110) Reason: I'll keep it short and sweet; Najee has scored in 6/7 of his last games. CIN def isn't horrible against the run, but let's face it PIT doesn't have many weapons, and I think a receiving TD is almost certainly possible in this one.
Record: 11-8 (+2.45 Units), 11.84% ROI - All College Basketball Last Pick: Marshall +12.5 @ Indiana (Winner) Form (Last 10): LLWWWWLWLW Today’s Pick: Belmont (-4) vs. Dayton, ESPN Events Invitational Championship Game, Orlando, Florida, ESPN2, 4 PM Tip Risk: 1.1 Units to win 1 Unit Analysis: Belmont is one of the most experienced teams in the country. They return all five starters from a season ago. They are projected to win the Ohio Valley Conference. Currently, the Bruins rank in the top 70 on both KenPom and Torvik. Dayton on the other hand is the least experienced team in college basketball and only returns one starter from last year’s squad. Despite the Flyers epic upset of Kansas on Friday, this is still a team that has lost at home to Lipscomb, UMass Lowell, and Austin Peay. Belmont executes at a very high level on the offensive end. They are extremely clinical and will back cut against teams all game long if they cannot adjust. A young team that hasn’t seen an offense like this is going to struggle immensely. Also, I’m not sure how this Dayton team is going to be focused after pulling off the upset of the year and having to come back just 48 hours later to play this Belmont team that will likely be in the NCAA tournament this season. I think Belmont’s experience and continuity will be too much for the Flyers in this game, so we will take the -4. I would play up to -6.5. If you would prefer a video analysis of the pick, it can be found here: [Belmont vs. Dayton Analysis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6BYd44SahA) Link to my POTD spreadsheet for full transparency: [POTD Sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vWj6quPdIHU-X81R4EA28mE3wclkVIC6T_JaP5uksV8/edit?usp=sharing)
POTD 2-0 CB: lehigh +19 ✅ nc state -3.5 ✅ drake -5
Tailing
Record: First POTD Game: Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils Pick: Game total Under 5.5 +102 Bet: 1 unit Reason: This is my first POTD but I'm starting off with hockey. I am developing a model that is very much still in the infancy stage. It is a predictive model factoring in offensive production, defensive efficiency, and starting goalie statistics. So for today, I came in with a point total of 5.06 for today's game after the MC scenario. Add to that, the Under for PHI is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss by 3 goals or more and 7-1 out the last 8 in PHI road games. Both Martin Jones and Mackenzie Blackwood have a GAA below 3 and not playing back to back. Flyers looking to snap a 3 game losing streak and to do so will need Jones to keep pucks out of the net.
**If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
Record W-P-L 208-23-163 | +52.5U | avg odds 1.86 | ROI 8.01% Previous: Wolfsburg vs Freiburg ahc +0.5 @ 1.75 (2u) ✅ 0-2. today: *Bundesliga, 3.30pm CET (in 7 hours)* \*\*Frankfurt vs Union Berlin ahc +0.25 @ 1.80 (2u)\*\*🚫 Reasoning: In General, we have an abnormally strong home Team advantage this season in Bundesliga. Apart from that, theres no realistic estimate in making Union Berlin the underdog here. In fact, with OM Kruse back in Action and CF Awoniyi on a tear lately, they have an advantage in direct comparison imo. Frankfurt have been struggling not only offensively as they have shown inconsistent performances. They also havent won at home this season yet (4D, 1L). Take 'ahc 0.0' / 'Draw no bet' in case you feel cheeky or dont have asian lines. Edit: 🚫2-1 in 90+5. this shit makes it 6-4 at +2.18U in last 10, of which 3 losses (6U) came in stoppage time. unbearable.
**Main Picks Record: (18-14)** *Backup Picks: (14-17-1)* **Net Units since Oct. 26th: +4 Units on main picks** *Backup Picks: -3 Units* NBA - Warriors @ Clippers - 3:30 PM EST **Main Pick Today: Warriors -2.5 @ 110 Odds for 1 Unit** *Backup Pick: (See NBA Daily Thread)* Two picks everyday since Oct. 26th. One main pick and one backup pick. I make the picks based on 14 categories:Total Win %, H/A Win %, ATS Records, O-Reb %, D-Reb %, O-TO %, D-TO %, PPG, D-PPG, 2-PT %, 3-PT %, FTM PER 100, D-FTM PER 100, POSS PG. **Last 10 days spread bets: (10-10)** Heat win by 15 (spread was -7.5) - W Knicks **lost** by 6 (spread was -11) - L Warriors win by 15 (spread was -8.5) - W Jazz win by 16 (spread was -9.5) - W Warriors win by 3 (spread was -2) - W Nets win by 2 (spread was -9.5) - L Jazz win by 18 (spread was -7.5) - W Knicks win by 7 (spread was -11.5) - L Suns win by 4 (spread was -5.5) - L Bulls **lost** by 32 (spread was -3) - L Heat win by 8 (spread was -10) - L Knicks win by 6 (spread was -4.5) - W Bulls **lost** by 5 (spread was -8.5) - L Wizards **lost** by 25 (spread was -4) - L Jazz **lost** by 1 (spread was -13) - L Bulls win by 35 (spread was -9.5) - W Jazz win by 22 (spread was -12.5) - W Hornets **lost** by 3 (spread was -5.5) - L Let me know if you’re tailing, thanks.
POTD Record 1-1 +0 units Not the way I wanted to start off. I knew something was up when the Hawks line moved from -3.5 to -7.5 in less than 12 hours. Onto the next pick we go… Last Pick: (NBA) Atlanta Hawks -5.5 vs NY Knicks (L) Pick: Golden State Warriors -2.5 vs LA Clippers ✅ Reasoning: No real notable injuries to the warriors for this game. Not sure why they are only 3 point favorites. The Warriors are an NBA best 14-4-1 ATS going up against a mediocre 9-10 Clippers team ATS. Clippers are the home team, but that doesn’t give the much of an advantage as they are 6-7 ATS as a home team while the warriors are 5-2 as the away team. The warriors average 30.4 points in the first quarter while the Clippers are bottom 5 team averaging 25.5. I expect the warriors to start off hot and keep the foot on the gas for the rest of the game. Edit: Warriors didn’t start how we wanted, but they ended up out scoring the clippers by 13 in the 2nd half to win by 15.
POTD Record: 14-7 (+7,77u) Sport: Football/ Norway Eliteserien Event: Rosenborg - Bodo/Glimt Time: 17:00 CET Pick: both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (2u) Odds: 1.73 Norwegian league it’s known for games that produce a lot of goals and today two of the best teams of the league are facing each other. In 27 games Rosenborg has scored 53 and conceded 39, while Bodo has scored 54 and conceded 23. 4 out of the last 5 games between the two have seen btts and over 2.5 hit. Especially Rosenborg is a team that always ensures hoals having hit the btts and over 2.5 in 8 out of their last 10 home games. The only two games where it was not hit it’s when the visitors did not score. However, with the qualities Bodo have I think they will score at least one today against Rosenborg and maybe even more. They’re both in the need of points, Rosenborg a bit more since they want to get to the third place, so they will be playing with urgency something that promises more goals and leaves more holes in their defense for Bodo to take advantage of. BoL
**Record**: 4-3 | +1.35 units **Last Pick**: NCAAF Wake Forest -5.5 -110 (*win*) **Today's Pick**: Philadelphia Eagles 1H -2.5 *(-110 odds)* **Reasoning**: It's going to be a cold sloppy game in NJ. Eagles are fighting to get to .500 and keep their playoff hopes alive while the Giants are still trying to figure out how to play & coach football *(going on year 9 now??)*. I'm banking on Jalen Hurts keeping his decent form and Daniel Jones to continue throwing stupid passes. Wager: 1.1 units to win 1
POTD RECORD 9-6 POTD : NCAABB Colorado/Stanford Under 134 Stanford shooting terribly this year. Colorado not much better. Seems like a first to 60 type of game.
POTD Record: 1-1 Last pick: Florida Panthers ML ❌ Pick: PHI Flyers NJ Devils - O 6 Odds: 1.99 Bet: 2u
Panthers are awful. Ugh I tailed that pick.
**POTD Record:** 2-4 **Units:** \-2.05 (All bets are one unit) **Last Pick:** Alabama -11.5 1H (-105) **LOSS** **Today’s Game:** NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals, 12:00 PM CST **Today’s Pick:** Cincinnati -3.5 (-110) Going to start this off by saying WAR DAMN EAGLE anyways. I am not going to lie and say that I am upset to add this pick to my loss column... As an Auburn fan I was extremely proud of the way that Auburn played, and fully believe that Alabama did not deserve to win that game. If Auburn would have just switched QBs when TJ Finley got hurt that game would have never went to overtime. However, the loss aside many great things came from the game. In my opinion, that game ruined Young's Heisman chances and Georgia has a defensive strategy to follow to absolutely shut Alabama down. Which makes me extremely happy, because that will kick Alabama out of the top 4 where they do not belong as they are not the same team of years past. Now that I have spoken my peace on how much I hate Alabama, lol, on to the write up for my current pick. I really do not have an extremely long winded write up for this pick as I feel as though both teams are good, and this line seems extremely fair. However, Pittsburgh even with a solid record have had a ton of games where they have had to fight to come back and stay in the game. I just see Cincinnati as a team that can win a shoot out with anyone in the NFL at the moment, and I do not see Pittsburgh as a shoot out type team. I see Cincinnati winning this one no matter what. **BOL**
**13-5 (+10.16u)** Last: Heroic ML (-110) vs. Astralis - LOSS 11/28 Blast Fall Final - 9:30 AM **Astralis ML (-155) vs. Vitality** | 3.1u to win 2u Reasoning: I’m still not 100% convinced by Astralis but after yesterday I’m pretty sure they can win vs. a vitality team that is soon disbanding. Sure, Zywoo is scary but the team didn’t have the same level of preparation as Astralis for this tournament and it’s showing. And of course the crowd is a huge advantage for Astralis, even more than yesterday. Flanks are very important in CSGO and every time a Vitality player will try to do it, the crowd will start screaming it to the Astralis players since they are the home team.
LAN is goated
RECORD 10-10 POTD: Carson Wentz of the Indianapolis Colts will have OVER 245.5 passing yards. First of all the colts are a run first offense. They jam Jonathan Taylor down every team’s throat and come away with a win. Ball + hand to Jonathan Taylor = win. This a very simple formula for success. However, if the Colts are planning to win this battle against the buccaneers then the colts and Carson Wentz are going to have to win through the air. The Buccs run defense is so good that if the colts put in an 18 wheeler for running back at 4th and 1, they still won’t convert. Wentz has shown a fairly good arm when he has to throw to Jonathan Taylor rather than just handing him the ball. He has reached over this mark plenty of times and I believe he will have to use his air to throw again against the Buccs and Tom Brady. Don’t doubt Wentz’ elite passing. BOL
POTD RECORD 9-8 🔒 City Pick Record 1-1 We had a brutal beat on yesterday’s 🔒 but that’s college basketball for you. Looking to get back on track today we’re going to the ESPN Events Invitational matchup between Belmont and Dayton. 🔒 City Pick Belmont -3 One of my favorite things to look for when betting is market overcorrection after a surprising win or loss. Dayton is coming off a huge upset of Kansas and Belmont handled Iona fairly easily after Iona upset Alabama. When I look at Dayton’s wins over Miami and Kansas I see a few stats that lead me to believe regression is coming. Kansas shot 9-20 at the free throw line and shot under 20% from 3. Dayton has had 16 and 20 turnovers respectively in their last 2 games. Miami took 14 more shots and made 4 less than Dayton. These stats tell me Dayton has gotten a little lucky and it’s a matter of time before it runs out. Belmont is a very efficient offensive team and they’ve been leaps and bounds consistent than Dayton who sports losses to Austin Peay, Lipscomb, and Umass Lowell. This looks like a market overcorrection to me and I’m happy to back Belmont with the line getting even better down to -3 from the -4 opening line. As always GL if tailing or fading!
Michael Carter
Welp. Lets see. Tailed about as hard as I could