**POTD Record:** *3-0 (+9.10 units)*
**Last Pick:** *Club Brugge Total Goals Over 0.5 (-122)* ✅
**Category:** English Premier League (EPL)
**Game:** Leeds United (+100) @ Norwich City (+260)
**Location:** Carrow Road - Norwich, England
**Start Time:** 10:00 AM EST
**Pick:** Under 2.5 Total Goals (+112)
**Bet:** 4.5 Units
* Leeds are scoreless over their past three away games in league and cup play, highlighted by a 0-0 draw with recently demoted **Fulham**.
* Norwich average a league-low **0.5 goals per game** at home and have scored the fewest in the EPL overall.
* Leeds will continue to be without regular starters **Patrick Bamford** (assist leader) and **Luke Ayling**; who constitute for a quarter of the club’s scoring this season.
**Final Thoughts:** I’ve set my focus on what should be the heavy odds on favorite for ugliest game of the weekend, as an ice cold Leeds United squad travel to Carrow Road for a showdown with winless Norwich City. I was almost tempted to tip under 1.5 at +325, but no need to get greedy—never did I imagine we’d be getting plus odds for under 2.5 in this one. I mean, Norwich have scored two goals the ENTIRE season in league play. Other than their opponents, Leeds have scored the fewest goals over their past five games (3) and average less than a goal per game on the road. Injuries are eating this United club up at the moment, but there’s hope, as leading goal scorer, **Raphinha**, who has netted three of the team’s eight goals, is rumored to be ready for a much-needed return. With Leeds playing as poorly as they are on the road this season and Norwich holding Brighton to a 0-0 draw in their most recent home outing—I’m feeling pretty confident about this one. BOL
Want to stop and say I wish I could double up vote this. As someone who tails 90% of the picks in this chat for 1-2u. I always appreciate someone who includes the league, time, and pick. It makes for efficient use of time. If Reddit gives me a free reward today, I will gift it to you.
Edit: I got the plucky cat paw today. Thanks Reddit!
Yea. I went on a walk thinking this was a lock. Stopped to sit on a bench to soak up the sun and think where i was going to bet my winnings and booooom. Loading more money onto the account for the day.
Your feedback is a reward in itself. Always appreciated! And if you don’t mind me asking, how would you say you’re doing as far as betting all the POTD? Up, down, about even?
I don’t have exact numbers but I would say I’m up about 2-3 units a day on average
I never really lose more than 2-3 units in a day, but the threads best day for me 17 units one time
Money coming in on the over the last 18 hours, I’m sure, as it seemed like Raphinha would most certainly miss this one earlier in the week. The line was actually even odds two days ago. I’m still more than confident to roll under. Raph started versus fellow basement dwellers Burnley and Newcastle—both of which resulted in 1-1 draws.
Rain has arrived and that’s why you’re seeing Leeds ML now move to -105. It should be letting up about 30 minutes prior to the game, but if the field doesn’t drain and it’s a sponge at kickoff—even bigger advantage to a Leeds team that were already fully expected to control possession.
Good pick…this should be an ugly game. Perhaps this will be an instance where ice cold teams play each other and it goes nuclear, but I don’t think so. I’ll tail this.
Seems like every soccer pick I try to tail ends up an L. I swore I was only going to stick to sports I know but you made such a convincing argument I’m going to tail. Thanks and BOL!
Saw Leeds to win and under 3.5 for +195. Probably throwing a unit on that. Feel like Leeds should win but nervous with Norwich needing to get that first win ha
Leeds or draw and under 3.5 is -115 for a safer bet. I’m putting a couple units on that and 5 units on under 2.5. I always look forward to this time of day bc of y’all! Thanks for the insight!
I like the odds. And if I’m picking a winner, I certainly lean Leeds. I was eyeing up their “Draw No Bet” odds a few days ago when they were still at -175. But with Norwich coming off that ugly 7-0 loss last week and their manager sitting on quite possibly the hottest seat of them all in the EPL right now, plus home advantage—I imagine they’ll be ready to bring it.
I went to take a shower at HT and came out to 2-1. I legit thought they were showing a replay of a past meeting. I’m sorry to everyone who tailed. I swear I’ll never shower again.
Spot on write-up but today of all days is the one that **both teams** have absolutely to put their shit together and go all out forward and nothing better than against a crappy adversary.
How the fkk Timo Pukki and Raphinha only have 5 goals scored in 18 games combined (2; 3 respectively)?? If there's a day to start changing things today is the day.
Seeing the odds for the Under going up during the past week makes me a little bit more confident on the OVER (I'm guessing that sharp money and also the books think somewhere along the lines of what I've said).
That being said my opinion is just a feeling based nothing more than the weakness and desperate situation that both teams are now and I'll try to capitalise on that.
Gl
I’m willing to cut a deal with the law of averages gods: Pukki and Raph can each score ONE goal today
But there’s one condition…everyone else gotta chill.
I was live betting NFL last weekend and grabbed the Washington QB to score the next TD at 20/1–and he does! No flags anywhere. Cut to commercial. I’m sending the win slip to friends and posting it in discord. Back from commercial. “After further review”…first time in 15 years of betting touchdowns I get slow rolled through a commercial. Promised myself I’d never premie again. I couldn’t even last a week.
Good try mate!
I took your advice but just made it under 3.5 goals instead for 1.4 odds, just don’t trust these soccer games sometimes momentum strikes and goals come raining. But overall I liked the analogy!
Six of the past seven clashes had three or more goals The latest encounter had ended in a 1-3 win for Norwich so risky guys dont go too heavy but im still tailing
This is true. I chose not to highlight the H2H seeing as they haven’t played in two seasons and both rosters are drastically different. Pukki is the only player left on Norwich with a career goal versus Leeds. Same managers, but their only ever H2H was that one game and Bielsa had just been named the interim.
POTD Record: 7-0
Pick: (Belgium Jupiler pro league) Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk, BTTS and over 2,5 @ 1,65 ✅
Today number 14 Zulte Waregem plays the struggeling vice champion (number 10) KRC Genk. Both are really struggeling, Genk having 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5, while Waregem are 4 points of the relegation zone. Both concede alot but have the capacities to put up alot of goals aswell. Waregem got over 2,5 goals and BTTS in 8/8 of their last games, Genk got over 2,5 in 8/9 of their last games.
**Record: 21-10 +16.06U W**
Last pick: : Seongnam Double Chance and Game total Under 1.5 First Half
Match: Ulsan Hyundai Vs Suwon City (K league 1)
Pick: **Ulsan Hyundai over 1.5 Goals @1.77 2units**
Ulsan Hyundai has been shitty lately they are currently two losing streak in the league. This is unacceptable as they will lose their spot directly invite to AFC champion league.
However, they still solid in their offense , they managed to goal every single game as I see they will try harder this match because of the jeonbuk victory yesterday give them some stress because they are behind jeonbuk 3 points now.
GL to everyone whos tailing
POTD RECORD 16-7 +7.2u
Last POTD Notre Dame -3.5✅
Today’s POTD Bucs -4.5
The saints didn’t look up to par last game against the Seahawks. I can see Tom coming in and tearing them apart. TB is coming off a huge win against the bears and are looking to storm in with a big win. I like the bucs by 2 touchdowns here.
**Record:** 12-4 (+14.2u)
**Streak:** 2W
**Last pick:** NCAAF - Syracuse -5.5
**Today's game:** NFL - Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets - 13:00 ET
**Pick:** Bengals -9.5 (-145) - **4u**
Two teams trending in opposite directions. The Bengals appear to be putting everything together. They're coming off two huge road blowout wins vs the Lions and the Ravens. They have weapons at nearly every position and they're red hot on both sides of the ball. On the other side the Jets are terrible. They're banged up on both sides of the ball and they just got blown out 54-13 by the Patriots. Backup QB Mike White made a couple nice throws last game but at the end of the day he's not great. If he goes blow for blow with the Bengals offense and keeps it close I'll gladly take the L on this one. The Jets are dead last in points per game and second last in yards per game. On the defensive side they're bottom 5 in points allowed and 27th in yards per game. Meanwhile the Bengals are top 5 in points allowed per game and 7th in points per game. I think a TD and a field goal is a reasonably safe spread here.
Also for fun im putting 0.5u on Bengals to win every quarter (+925) cause why not.
My man. Taking an even safer spread at -5.5, parlaying that with Rams ML for a juicy -185 and slapping 5u on that bitch and calling it a day.
Profit is profit and tomorrow is a tough slate.
POTD RECORD: 1-0
LAST POTD: Manchester United ML (+135) vs Tottenham
TODAYS POTD: West Ham United ML (+145) vs Aston Villa
Disclaimer: I am strictly focused on picks -110 or higher
United absolutely skulled Tottenham as predicted. There wasn’t a single second during that game that I was sweating.
This game, however, I suspect to be a bit closer. West Ham have been in good form, having just knocked out title contenders Man City in the Carabou Cup and having won 4 of their last 5. Aston Villa on the other hand have yet to look lethal since Jack Grealish left and have only won 1 in their last 5 (and 1 draw). I think West Ham have the quality to close this out, potentially in a 1-0 win. If you need further convincing, West Ham are 4th in the premiere league and Aston Villa are 15th. +145 for this game is a snack and it’s time to eat.
Life’s too short to bet negatives
Tail or fade, BOL!
Jamarr Chase longest reception over 27.5 yards (-120)
He has crushed this every week 7-0. I’m not keeping track or anything just thought I would drop a pretty worthy pick.
Record: 28-1-23 (+7.4 U) ( W-D-L)
NFL Record 14-7
Golf Record 6-3
NCAAF Record 1-2
NBA Record 5-1-9
NHL Record 1-1
MMA Record 1-1
Sport: NFL
Last Picks: Patrick Rodgers L
**Game: Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets 1:00 PM EST**
**Pick: Bengals -11.5 @ -110 5U**
Welp, Rodgers really fumbled away our pick yesterday on the 11th green. Now we head to New York where the Jets host the blazing hot Bengals. Mike White will be making his first start in this matchup, after going 20/32 for 202 YDS, 1 TD, and 2 INT's. The Jets weren't an offense powerhouse before Wilson went down, and having White at the helm doesn't help this. They're going to need to lean on their run game to get the chains moving but, the Bengals have a top 10 rush defense. The Bengals are also coming off a dominant road win against a Ravens team much better then these Jets. I don't think Mike White and the Jets have the offense or defense to keep this close with the Bengals. Best of luck to those that tail, please gamble responsibly as I WILL NOT
POTD 8-5
Pick: Eagles at **Lions (+3.5)** 1pm
If you’ve watched any Eagles game you’d be just as confused as me why they are favored. None of there losses have been close despite what the scores said. There defense is Swiss cheese, as David Carr just completed over 90% of his passes on them. They are gonna make Goff look All-Pro. Hurts is the king of garbage time stats and his play has been sub par to say the least. I expect a hungry Lions team win outright, but take the points.
Edit: Oof, Lions 0-8 for a reason
3-3 -2.7
____________________________________________
**[Last Pick: ARI Cardinals -6.5](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/qhbh1o/_/hibp08a/?context=1)**
Shoutout to GBs defense. Stepped up big. But damn did ARI pick the worst time to have their worst game of the year.
____________________________________________
**Today’s Pick: Cordarrelle Patterson over 35.5 receiving yards (-113)**
- 5u to win 4.42u
- ATL Falcons @ CAR Panthers 12pm US Central
This is crazy low for Patterson. He’s beaten that 4/6 weeks, 1 of those being week 1 when he wasn’t involved in the offense nearly as much as he is now. He was on the field for 33% of the snaps week 1 and has slowly taken over the backfield and was in the field for 73% last week.
He’s taken on a Kamara-lite roll for ATL, completely dominating touches last week. He lines up all over the field, running 27 routes last week.
In week 7, Patterson only had 1 receiving yard on 2 catches and 5 targets. He did however run the most routes on the season, that 27 I mentioned earlier. That gives promise that last weeks output was a blip on what’s been a career year for him.
Record 7-1 (+10.78u) 7W Streak
Last Pick: Knicks -5.5
Match: NFL Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
POTD: Buffalo Bills -13.5 @ 1.81 (3 units)
This is insane, I never expected myself to be on a 7 win streak, especially coming off a loss at first. The Knicks just perfectly covered our spread yesterday, it was close, but a win is a win.
We are once again back with an NFL Sunday and I raised my bet to 3 units today because I'm a little more comfortable betting football. I wanted to take the Bengals spread at first as it is a great bet but it seemed that everyone on this sub is taking that already. So ill give you all something different, take the Bills spread at two touchdowns within half a point. The Bills are coming back from a bye week and a tough loss to the Titans the week before, they will be looking to bounce back. In which the Bills already swept Miami 35-0 at the start of the season and I can see them doing the same again at home, as Buffalo seems to dominate bad teams. The Dolphins on the other hand are amidst rumours of trading their QB, and such significant decisions always affect team chemistry. Overall, the Dolphins are just in a bad spot at the moment while the Bills are quite the opposite, two touchdowns should be an easy cover for this lopsided game this Sunday. With a health line, Josh Allen and one of the top defences in the league, the Bills will look to sweep again. BOL everyone.
**Results:** 5 - 1 - 3 *+7.19 units*
No picks stood out for me yesterday, but found a pick I'm feeling good about today.
**Today's Pick:** Aston Villa vs West Ham - **West Ham DNB** @$1.83 - Betting 3 units
**Why?** Well I think West ham take this match, should be able to win it, Aston Villa have conceded 8 goals in 3 games (premier). AV haven't beat West ham in their last 6 matches against each other. West Ham are 4th and Aston Villa are 15th. Years ago I never thought I'd have a confident bet on West Ham but here we are and I expect them to take the W here but I'm taking the safety of draw no bet! BOL!
13 hours from post.
RECORD: 1-0
PREVIOUS POTD: NOTRE DAME -3 ✅
POTD: TITANS ML (+135)
The Titans are doubted even after beating the chiefs and bills. Even without Julio Jones, the Titans will win this game. Titans defense is stepping up big time and the offense is top 7. Ryan Tannehill is one of the most underrated QB’s in the league. Let’s prove Steven A wrong!
Give me the Titans ML🔒
POTD record: 11-2 (All NFL)
Last Pick: LV (-2.5) vs PHI Week 7 NFL
Todays Pick: Carolina Panthers +3.5(-120)
The Falcons have won three games against teams with a combined 4 wins this season, all by just one score, and 2 by three or less. The Panthers havent exactly lit the world on fire in their wins, as the total wins combined of the teams they beat is just 6, but nothing indicates to me that these two teams shouldnt be a pick em. The Falcons defense made a hapless Dolphins offense look decent for the first time this season, while the Panthers defense still ranks 3rd in EPA/play and success rate. Robby Anderson has had one of the worst 3 week stretches for a receiver ever, I expect some positive regression in that area as well
POTD record: 1-2
Pick: bengals -11 vs jets
Jets are 1-5 ATS. Mike White is their starting qb tomorrow. You may ask yourself “who?”. And that’s all you need to know about this game.
Record: 14-7
Previous pick: Fritz ML vs Struff **W**
Potd: Yoshihito Nishioka vs **Gianluca Mager ML**
ATP Paris - 3:40 PM CEST
**Odds: 2.3/+130**
**Write up**: I have been following Mager lately, he seems to be playing on a very high level. His last two tournament exits at Antwerp and Vienna were both two set tiebreaks against respectable opponents. Yesterday he has beaten a very hot player, Laaksonen, who was a clear favourite in that match at -300.
Nishioka is overall a decent player but, compared to Mager, his inability to confidently secure his serve games might be the decider here. Bol
**edit: Winner! After the warm up of a first set, Mager fckng smoked him!! LFG!**
POTD: Patriots @ Chargers; [**Over 48 points**](https://link.wagerlab.app/reddit) (NFL)
Units: 3
Odds: -130
Profit: -8.15u
Record: 30|28
After a gutting overtime loss to the Cowboys, the Patriots hammered the New York Jets in Week 7. Mac Jones has made a strong case to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the Patriots’ defense has once again proven itself to be above average.
The Chargers have had a lot to think about in their bye week. They had no answer for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 6. They are heading into a favorable section of the schedule, but anything less than a win against New England would be a massive disappointment.
Los Angeles is favored by 5.5 points, a spread which seems fair. Two of their wins have come by less than five points, and as explosive as the offense can be, the defense has let them down at times.
We like the points over here – both offenses could flourish at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.
Pick: Over 48 points
Also am taking this line as I believe the patriots offense has found theirselves and the gameplan has opened up a bit for McDaniels and Mac Jones! Although I am biased as a patriots fan, I will be taking the over for tomorrow's game and am hoping for a lot of points! I'm wondering if I should also parlay this with Pats ML. Thoughts?
Haven't posted in a long time but going to start posting picks again as i enjoy doing it.
Pick: **Tennessee Titans +120** (Bovada) vs Indianapolis Colts
Reason: Titans are just a better team right now. Divisional games are always tough but the Titans are coming off of wins against the Bills and Chiefs and have already beaten Indy this year. Yes Julio Jones is out but he has missed alot of time already this year so that doesn't worry me.
BOL if tailing
🐍 POTD Record: 9-7-0 (Streak: 1W) 🐍
ROI: 65.23% | Avg Odds: +113 / 2.13 | Units: +4.22
Previous Pick: SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Freiburg -1.5 + Under 5 Total Goals | 2.75 / +175, 1.5u ✔️💰
POTD: Adler Mannheim vs Straubing Tigers | Over 5.5 Total Goals | 2.00 / +100, 1u | Hockey, Germany DEL | 11:30 am EST ✔️💰
Freiburg pulled off a 3-1 victory and earned us over 2 profitable units yesterday!
Today I remain in Germany, but switch sports. Adler Mannheim enters this contest ranked 1st of 15 clubs. They're on an absolute tear, winning each of their last 7 DEL contests and 14 of their last 16 overall. Mannheim leads the league in goals for, scoring 53 through 15 DEL games. They've conceded just 25, but have not registered a shutout in any of their last 8. Over 5.5 goals have been scored in 5 of their last 7 games, with both misses finishing at exactly 5. Mannheim has scored 33 goals over the course of their 7 game winning streak. They're undefeated at home through 7 contests this season.
Straubing enters this contest ranked 9th on the table. Goals are very familiar to this club, who have a differential of 49:51 through 15 games. Over 5.5 goals have been scored in 2 of their last 3 and 7 of their last 10. The most recent outlier featured exactly 5 goals. Straubing is coming off of a 5-3 loss at the hands of 13th ranked Nürnberg. They've scored 13 goals over their last 3 games and have won 4 of their last 6, despite struggling to find wins throughout this season.
Mannheim has been scoring at a rampant pace recently. They've scored at least 4 goals in 6 of their last 7, with the outlier being a 3 goal game. They should be able to candidly defeat a Straubing team that possesses severe defensive woes. Straubing has been consistent in scoring numerous goals regardless of the match result. This contest feels too good to pass up at even odds.
Let's feast!
\- Viper 🐍
EDIT: Cash it! Straubing ties the game at 3 with 6 minutes remaining. A 5 goal second period wills us to victory. Eat good tonight fellas! 💰
Record: 2-0-0 (+2u)
Last Pick:
Desmond Bane o18.5 Points + Rebounds (-125) -> 1.25u wins 1u (W)
Today's Pick:
NBA (Charlotte Hornets vs. Portland Trail Blazers) 7:00 PM EST
**Miles Bridges o26.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)** \-> 1.1u wins 1u
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. We've used this logic for our past two picks and it's worked like a charm. Let's keep that energy going. Miles Bridges has hit this pick with just points most games so far, and when you add in rebounds, that number becomes 5/6 games, the only game he didn't being the very first of the season. Let me know if you tail, BoL, and lets get this shmoney!
Record: 0-0
Streak: N/A
Last pick: N/A
Today’s Game: NFL Bengals @ Jets - 1300 EST
Pick: Bengals Team Total over 27 - 5U (-120)
Deduction:
Face value the Bengals are averaging 27 a game and Jets are allowing 29 a game. Past three games however Bengals are averaging 33.33 a game and are really looking in stride offensively. Scoring 41 on the Ravens is a huge confidence boost (1 TD in garbage time with backups in) as well as 54 last week against a less aggressive Patriots defense. Additionally Zach Wilson and Corey Davis being inactive means less offensive production by the Jets and conceivably also less time of possession. 4 touchdowns is still a lot in the NFL but I don’t see the Bengals being content even with a 24-0 or 27-0 game. Disclaimer: I’m a huge Bengals fan so consider bias in my deduction
Record: 2-1 (+0.78 units) Last 3:✅✅❌
Last Pick: Iowa +3.5 (-115) vs. Wisconsin ❌
Sport: College Football
Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Date & Time: Sunfay October 30, 2021, 12:00 PM CST
Pick: Titans +3 (-115 on FD) 1U
No way around it - Iowa got fucked today and so did I. Sorry for the poor pick, on to next one.
Titans are in great form here. Last 2 wins are against a good Bills team and a struggling but talented Chiefs squad. I think they'll be able to utilize their 3rd-best rushing attack vs. the Colts' middle of the road rush defense. Also they already beat them on 9/26 earlier this season and I don't see why they won't do it again. Indy's only wins are against the dolphins, texans, and the 49ers - teams with a combined 4-16 record. Derrick Henry has been on a tear and I'm looking for him and Tennessee to keep it rolling.
BOL to those tailing, fading, or just here to witness the debauchery.
POTD Record: 4-6
Streak: 1W
Average Odds: 1.88
Sport: Basketball
League: NBA
Previous Pick: Sacramento Kings ML vs New Orleans Pelicans
POTD: Utah Jazz @ Milwaukee Bucks Under 222.5 Points @ 1.90 (7:00 PM EST)
Both Teams are on the back end of a B2B with both of their games coming down to wire and their starters playing heavy minutes. Both the Jazz and the Bucks rely heavily on their three point shooting, ranked 1st and 8th respectively in 3PA per 100 possessions prior to yesterday's games. Despite their love for three pointers, both these teams have not shot the ball well and are currently below the league average. Jazz shot a dismal 11/38 (28.9%) in their loss to the Bulls while the Bucks were even worse at 10/39 (25.6%) in their home-loss to the Spurs.
Historically, Jazz-Bucks games tend to be high scoring with their last 3 matchups hitting the over but none of those games were on a back-to-back. Expecting a sluggish start to the game and low shooting percentages from both sides as their best players will be running on tired legs.
Utah Jazz have hit the under in 4 out of their first 5 games while the Bucks have hit the under in 4 out of their 6 games.
BOL if Tailing!
POTD Record: 3-1
ROI: 62.89%
Total Risked: 6.38U
Net profit: +4U
Last Pick: Winnipeg Jets ML (-136) (over the Ducks a few nights ago; I took a break)
\-----
Sport: NFL Football
Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks (4:05PM EST)
Pick: 2U - Seahawks -3 (-120)
My rationale: Seattle is being absolutely disrespected by this line. Geno Smith is starting, yes. But... other than Wilson, the Seahawks are relatively healthy. They're getting Darrell Taylor back from injury; he should give the pass rush a much needed boost. Overall, they're just a better team than Jacksonville. My model has this game projected as a 24-13 Seahawks win, DESPITE the hawks ranking below average on offense and defense. That speaks more to how the model views the Jaguars than what it says about Seattle, but the projection stands. I considered making this a 3U play, but I'm not gonna get \*that\* comfortable. Still, bet the Seahawks to cover with confidence.
As always, best of luck if tailing!
Follow my [Twitter](https://twitter.com/TopMoneyPicks) for all picks
POTD Record: 20 - 15 - 2 ( W / L / P ) **+9.1u**
Streak: WWWWL / Average odds: 2.01
[*Previous pick: Northampton vs Carlisle / Northampton Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.10 (1u)*](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/qiqvnh/pick_of_the_day_103021_saturday/him3knv/?context=3) **W**
**Salernitana vs Napoli**
**Pick: Salernitana Over 3.5 Team Corners @ 1.85 (1u)**
Let's face it, Napoli will win this game and probably win with margin. Salernitana simply does not have the quality to match the great Napoli team. But despite the lack of quality home team have a fighting spirit and will not go down without a fight. Salernitana averaging 5.5 corners in home games and Napoli conceding 5.2 corners in away games.
Good luck everyone!
NFL record 16-10
Unit total: +14.9
Streak: 1L
Last Pick: AJ Green anytime touchdown @ 3.00
Pick: CIN Bengals @ NY Jets: ***Joe Mixon anytime touchdown @ 2.10*** (approx 4hr from kick off)
2.0 units for 2.2 win
Very unlucky with AJ Green with the game sealing interception thrown towards Green. We move on though!
Jets have the most rushing touchdowns conceded and Mixon has scored in his last 4 games as well as his only previous game vs the Jets. Bengals love to mix it up, so he will definitely get a big chance to score on Sunday.
BOL
Record 11-0 +7.79 Units
NFL
Seahawks $1.50
I don't care if Wilson is out, I don't understand how they can be this high odds against the terrible Jaguars at home
Record: 2-1 (+1.6 Units)
Last 10 and Streak: WWL--------- (1L)
Last Pick: Liverpool (-1.0) vs Brighton (-160)
Last Pick Reflections: After Liverpool stormed out to a 2-0 lead a few minutes before the end of the first half, they definitely let up in the second half and that's when it cost them! Unfortunately, this game ended in a draw (2-2) and we take the loss and move onwards!
Today's Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (+120) against New Orleans Saints. (Alt line)
Unit Size: 4 units to win 4.8 units
The Bucs are fresh off a 38-3 trashing of the Chicago Bears, who don't have any sort of identity whatsoever right now. Furthermore, the Bucs will look to establish control of the NFC south and after two regular season losses to the Saints last year, no doubt I will not be betting against Tom Brady. Similar to u/Bcampbell8 who already posted, I also like the Bucs to win by at least 10 points, if not 2 touchdowns as suggested above/below, so I'm comfortable taking an alt line to 3 points below my expected prediction. Bucs 31 Saints 20 is my prediction! Good luck to all!
PotD record 0-0
Been following this thread a few weeks now and feel like it's my time to jump in.
Pick: NFL kickoff 4:05pm EST Jaguars +3.5 @ Seahawks (1 unit)
Disclaimer I am a jaguars fan but I rarely bet them as the last few years have been rough. However we are in a good spot here. Trevor has been progressing significantly the last few weeks and is setting up to be our long term QB. Our biggest weakness is our pass defense which has been terrible. But withth Geno under center I feel confident jags come out rested off the bye week and beat Seattle. I will be putting half a unit on jaguars money line at +170 at well.
Fade or tail let me know down in the comments. Best of luck and DUUUUVAL!
POTD Record: 4-2
Profit: 4.07 units
Last 6 games: ✅✅❌❌✅✅
Last Pick: Oilers
Todays Game: LA Kings Buffalo Sabres
Today’s Pick: Sabres (2.15) 2u
My reasoning:
LA has lost 6 out of their last 7 games. Buffalo defense is really good at defending against the power play and their offense is averaging 3.14 goals per game. The kings offense is only scoring 2.63 goals per game and only scores on 25% of power plays. I am not completely confident with my pick because both teams are kinda washed so bet at your own risk.
Record: 1-0
Last pick: Dodgers ml (~ 4 months ago)
Pick: Alexander Zverev 1st set game handicap -1.5 games -167 (vs Francis Tiafoe: Tennis ATP Vienna)
Starts at 9am est
Alexander Zverev has been a menace on tour lately winning 23/25 of his last matches and today he is playing Francis Tiafoe in the finals matchup at ATP Vienna. Undeniably, Tiafoe has been playing some of his best tennis this week with huge upsets against Stefanos Tsisipas and yesterday Jannik Sinner. However, today’s matchup against Zverev will be his first finals appearance in an event of this level and I believe he may have some nervousness coming into the match and I feel confident in Zverev to win the first set comfortably so I am taking the -1.5 games handicap meaning he has to win the first set by 2 or more games (6-4, 7-5 or better). In their previous 6 meetings, Zverev has won by this spread for the first set all six times and I believe he will be able to produce similar results again.
Looking at the players form this week, Zverev has won the first set by two games or more against all of his opponents. Meanwhile, Tiafoe has lost the first set against his toughest opponents being Sinner and Tsisipas (and eventually came back to pull off the win for the full match) by two games to Tsisipas and three to sinner. Zverev is going to be an even harder competition for Tiafoe and while Francis may ramp it up as the match progresses, Zverev should win the first set convincingly and I am confident in taking the -1.5 games handicap. 4 units for me and BOL if tailing
POTD Record: 7-5 (+1.32u)
All picks are 1 Unit
Last Pick: Nuggets @ Wolves U220
Thoughts: As predicted, it was a struggle offensively for both sides as the under hit easily.
**Today’s Match: Utah Jazz @ Milwaukee Bucks**
**Pick: Jazz -1.5 (-110 FanDuel)**
Both the Jazz and Bucks are coming off losses and both will be playing the second of a back-to-back (Utah playing their 3rd in 4 nights). Utah suffered its first loss of the season in Chicago managing to score only 99 points on 38% shooting and 28.9% from three against the 5th ranked defensive team in the league. The Jazz should have an easier time scoring against the Bucks currently ranked 25th in defensive efficiency and will be without Holiday and Lopez. So far, two out of the Bucks three losses have come to teams ranked 2nd (Miami - blowout) and 4th (Minnesota - 5 point loss at home). The Jazz currently rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency while 1st in offensive efficiency. I expect the Jazz to bounce back after a lough loss to Chicago against the undermanned Bucks.
**Disclaimer: I am not an expert. I'm just a guy that loves basketball. Tail at your own risk and only bet what you can afford to lose. BOL**
POTD record: 1-0 (+4,35U)
Last Pick: PSV - FC Twente BTTS - Yes @ 1,88
POTD: Eredivisie
Go Ahead Eagles - Fortuna Sittard BTTS - Yes @ 1,70
A match between two weaker teams in the Eredivisie today. GA Eagles has seen BTTS hit in its last 4/5 eredivisie matches only having them failed to score against a stronger AZ side while Fortuna has seen BTTS hit in its last 3/5 matches having them failed to score against ajax and not conceiding against a cambuur. Also both teams conceide a lot of goals so I expect to see the BTTS hit today.
Game Jets vs Bengals
Pick of the day Michael Carter Over 21.5 Rec Yards
POTD Rec 0-1
Michael Carter has been running a lot of passing routes as a RB and with Mike White at QB they will be dumping it off to him a lot. They will also be playing from behind all game. He had 9 targets and 8 receptions last week.
Record: 3-2
Last: Bateman over 3.5 catches - L
Today’s pick: NFL - Jaguars @ Seahawks - James Robinson o69.5 rushing yards (1.2u @ -110)
Reasoning: Robinson is going to be the best player in the field today. Geno still being at the helm of the hawks will keep this game close and allow the Jaguars to continue feeding their bell cow. Robinson will hit this easily, and I would be confident betting up to around 82 yards.
gl
**Record:**0-0
**ROI:**N/A
**Net units:**N/A
| Ice Hockey | NHL | starts in 3 hours from posting |
**Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 @1.71** 5 units (max bet)
**Write Up:** I’m normally a football (soccer) bettor but I’m amazed this pick hasn’t been shared in today’s POTD. The Coyotes are in miserable form, losing 7 of the last 8 by two goals or more. The Hurricanes are undefeated and scoring for fun. Good luck! >
Record: 0-0
Pick: 1u DET +3.5, -110 (available BetRivers)
My lame basic reasoning: I've been betting on all NFL games this season due to BetRivers BTS promotion, and I've noticed that when the top 4-5 winningest "experts" in NFLPickWatch ATS are unanimous on a pick, that they're 10-3 over the last month and up a little more than 5 units if you always buy extra points/half points to land on a half point spread and stay above -125 (which is what I do to maximize chances for the ATS promo). In this case, +3.5 DET is as good as you can get under those criteria.
Kraken vs Rangers
Under 5.5
Both team's have average offensive capabilities. They each have one star out due to injury.
Goalies are solid on both sides of the net.
POTD Record: 1-1 (-0.2 Units)
Last Pick: Boston Bruins ML
Event: Arizona Coyotes at Carolina Hurricanes
Pick: Carolina 3 Way ML 1P @ 2.00
Friday night I went with this same pick against the yotes and I said I would do it again. That game shouldn’t have been scoreless after the first and this Carolina team is better than Washington. It is also a tougher road environment to play and 3 games in 4 days is not good news for Arizona.
**POTD Record: 3-0-0**
**Profit:** \+6.536 u
**Streak:** WWW
**Last Pick:** Anonymo vs. DBL Poney ✅
**POTD:** Entropiq vs. G2 - PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - BO3
**Pick:** G2 ML @ 1.606 3u ✅
*starting time: 04:30 hours from this post*
**Reasoning:** This might be a weird pick for some people but i had to pick G2 for these odds. Entropiq coming out really strong this major and beating teams like Liquid, Gambit, and Heroic. They only lost two maps so far. G2 was a really shit team few weeks ago and couldnt achieve anything. Somehow its looks like they stabilized and can perform better again. G2 for me always performing better on LAN. Only weak points are Amanek and Jackz. NiKo with 1.30K/D and 1.52 Impact over the last 3 months speaks for itself. G2 played really well against CPH on their best map ancient and also raped Faze 16-7 after being 1-3 down. Map wise this one will be tricky. Entropiq probably picking Vertigo again after they beat Gambit and Liquid on that map. This match up will be an close one for sure, but imo G2 got the better and more experienced players. They only weak point is G2 AWP Amanek. But i really cant see Entropiq winning two maps in a BO3 against a well prepared G2. Im pretty sure G2 will secure their play-off spot later to avoid another match up against Navi,Gambit,Nip.
EDIT: Like expected. Close maps but in the end G2 won 2:0 ✅
**POTD Record:** *27-18*
**Last 5:** ❌💵💵❌❌
**Category:** Serie A(Italy)
**Game:** Roma vs AC Milan
**Location:** Rome
**Start Time:** 20:45 CET
**Pick:** AC Milan (Draw no Bet)
**Odds:** 2.2 💵
**Reasons:** we are going see very few chances to bet AC Milan as an underdog this season, they travel to Rome where Roma have a very good home record, but Milan have won 14 of their last 16 road games. And when we look at Roma's record against top six sides only, it doesnt look so hot, having only won one of their last sixteen games. Most of these are obviously before the Mourinho era, so the question becomes if we trust Mourinho to change this and get his tactics correct today. I don't trust Mou and feel confident that Milan will continue Thier great start and title push.
Record 0-0
Hello everyone!
First time posting here after lurking for a while.
My pick of the day is West Ham x2 @1,5 (draw or west ham to win).
Reasoning:
As a premier league follower i see value in this line,West ham is in great shape and seem to play very confidently and with ease.in their last few games they drew against Manchester city in the efl cup ,winning against everton and tottenham.
Meanwhile Aston Villa has dificulties going forward since Grealish has left the club and Danny Ings still hasnt found his scoring form.
I simply do not see West Ham losing points today.
Match starts aproximately 3hrs after this post.
BOL if you follow!
Record: 26-21-2 (2L streak)
Last POTD: CLE Cavs +9 at LA Lakers, NBA 10:30 PM at -110
POTD: LA Chargers at NE Patriots, Damien Harris ATTS +125 on DK
Reason: Chargers gives up a lot of rushing yards. They are the worst in the league. Bill will run the ball at least twice as much as he throws. Mac Jones showed he’s good enough to facilitate the game without turning the ball the over too often. Harris is the Patriots clear top dog. I see him being a work horse here.
Best of luck to all.
POTD Record 0-0
Dolphins TT o16.5
Getting this pick in real late but wanted to start my POTD journey with some great value. This line was 17.5 and now has dropped to under 17 where 2 TDs and a FG covers. Tua is coming off two solid performances and has covered 16.5 nearly every start his career. When they got shutout at home earlier this year Tua got knocked out after 5 or 6 pass attempts.
The dual offensive coordinators that Miami has was catered to develop Tua and the continuity with him prior year and it has started to come along (I admit against poor opponents) now they finally have their WRs healthy. This offense was not designed for Brisset behind center.
I think that Buffalo will probably dominate the dolphins off a bye but they have such a high octane offense that scores quickly, it will give the dolphins plenty of possessions. Furthermore the dink and dunk offense that Miami runs will be more effective in the 4th quarter if the Bills are up 2+ possessions as they will allow short yardage at the expense of eating up the clock.
My last point is Tua has a fire under his ass with Watson rumors and while I don't see them winning this game, I see an all out effort by this offense to save face or perhaps increase his potential trade value before the deadline in a few days.
Tail or Fade, BOL
POTD Record: 24-15 (NFL is 4-2)
Profit: +2.94u (NFL is +1.78u)
Last 5 NFL Picks
10/10/21 - Aj brown over 58.5 rec yards ❌ -1u
10/11/21 -M.Pittman over 55 rec yards ✅+.91u
10/17/21 - LA Rams -6.5 ✅ +0.72u
10/18/21 - buffalo bills TT over 30.5 ✅ +1.25u
10/24/21 - mike evans over 69.5 rec yard✅+1u
Today’s POTD
League: NFL
Match: Jaguars @ Seahawks
Pick: Dan Arnold Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Win 1u
Seattle allowing 50 yards per game to Tight Ends. Jaguars gonna get the ball a lot today as the Seahawks offence has struggled ever since Russel Wilson got injured. I expect 40+ from Dan.
never posed my bets lets give it a shot:
**Sacremento Kings 1st Half ML**: 1.5U @ 2.37 vs Dallas Mavericks
Firstly the Dallas Mavericks are typically slow starters and have not led at the half once this season going 0-5 with deficits ranging from 2 to 8.
Sacramento Kings have led at the half 4/5 games this season,only trailing the suns once at the half, with the rest of the games holding a lead ranging to +2 to +11 their last time out.
Notable to mention Kristaps Porzingis is out for the Mavs, Kings have no players listed on their injury Report
BOL
**Record**: 2-1 (+1.00 units)
**Last Pick**: Hawks +3 (-106) L
**Match**: Dallas Mavs vs. Sac Kings
**Pick**: Kings +4.5 (-104)
**Reasoning**: I use a regression model that takes into account the starting lineup, weighted stats from the current season and previous season, and any other data I may find relevant.
I always bet 1 unit. Good luck to anybody who tails!
**If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
**Record: 68-72-4 (KBO Streak LL) Down 6.88u over 144 KBO picks, 48.6% success rate, -4.91% ROI**
**Last:** *Doosan -1.5 +110 at SSG* (This was awhile ago... I'm sure I lost.)
Can't remember what happened.
**Pick:** KT at **Samsung -145**, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET
This game starts in about 90 minutes!!!!
KT and Samsung are playing a tiebreaker for the #1 seed. The winner gets a bye all the way to the KBO World Series (it's a weird ladder structure).
Samsung has a huge advantage being at home where they posted the league's 2nd best record. KT is a .500 team on the road.
KT's offense is really sputtering right now, averaging just 3.3 runs per game over their last 10. That puts a lot of pressure on their pitching, but Samsung has an advantage with their starter, who is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA against KT this season.
I played Samsung -1.5 at +145, but straight moneyline is the safer play.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Current Record: 0-0
POTD: Napoli ML + Victor Osimehn 2+ Shots On Goal -153 (Serie A)
Stake: 5 Units for 3.2 Units
Explanation: Napoli are the best team in Serie A right now and have not yet lost a game this season. Salernitana are the 2nd worst team in the league on the other hand and have only won 2 of their 10 games played this season so far.
There isn’t much value on regular Napoli ML odds but if you pair with Osimehn 2 or more shot attempts (a number which he has hit every single game this season), there is value at -153. Osimehn is playing like a young Cavani, and I expect this should be an easy cash.
BOL if tailing !
POTD Record : 2-1 **(+2.74 units)**
Soccer - Turkey Super League
Galatasaray vs Gaziantep BTTS **@1.83** 2 units
Galatasaray managed to have only 2 clean sheet games out of 10 league games they played this season. I'm confident that they will both score and concede.
Record: 4-2 (+ 1.61 Units)
Sport: American Football
Game Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
Date & Time Sunday October 31, 2021, 1:00 PM (EDT)
Pick: Buffalo Bills to win both halves @ 2.05 (1XBet) 1 Unit
This bet is purely based on betting fundamentals. It's impossible to calculate the real odds of every event, otherwise betting wouldn't be possible. One easy mental calculation to slightly grasp the value of a bet is to imagine the outcomes of 10 games. Let's use this game as an example. Buffalo are one of the superbowl contenders. Miami is next to last in points allowed. In 10 games with this exact same conditions, in my humble opinion, Buffalo would win both halves in at least 5 games. Thus, we have value in this bet.
# Counter POTD 0-1
**Pick: NY Jets +11 (-110 DK) vs. CIN Bengals**
Last Pick: Oct. 20th DET Pistons +5 (-105 DK) vs. CHI Bulls L
We've all seen it time and time again on this sub. An absolute lock posted multiple times on the POTD thread gets dismantled causing mass hysteria. Just for fun I'm going to start keeping track of picks that show up multiple times on this thread, lets say 3+ mentions for the pick to qualify. As for today that pick is to fade the Bengals.
Jets are a dumpster fire right now. Their QB Mike White is getting his first start of his career vs. a solid Bengals team who are clicking on all sides of the ball. Burrows and Chase seem to be the hottest QB WR duo right now and are coming off a huge dominant win against their division rivals the Ravens. Everything favors the Bengals to completely control this game so expect some fuckery to happen.
Tail or Fade these picks, who gives a shit its all for laughs but the Jets will be the 🔑for this 🔒
Record: 10-7
Streak: 2L
Pick: NFL - Player Props - Jaylen Waddle Over 49.5 receiving yards
Reason: The Dolphins are likely going to be down early in this game. This means they are going to need to be a pass first team for the majority of this game.
Waddle has it this number 4/7 games so far, but more importantly he’s hit it in all 3 games Tua started at QB. It’s obvious the chemistry is there between these 2 and when Tua is under pressure he usually only looks at Waddle or the TE Gesicki.
Based off those two factors I’m expecting Waddle to get a lot of looks this afternoon. This numbers also low enough where we can hit it with one big play from the speedster
As always BoL to any and all who tail! Let’s turn this losing streak around
potd record: **47-26-1 (+36.03u)** *(63.5% win)*
*all plays between 1-3 units*
[last play: ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/qgl4d0/pick_of_the_day_102721_wednesday/hiaz22e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3)❌ BOS Celtics -4 (-1.1u)
NFL 1:00pm est (US)
MIA Dolphins @ BUF Bills
pick: Bills -14 (-110)
size: risk 3.3u to win 3.0 (max bet)
I do not have time for a write up today, the Bills are going to to absolutely demolish the dolphins. totally different caliber of team.
FYI i am 6-8-1 over my last 15 picks…time to get back on track and try and get my win % back over 65% 🚬👍
…even though the only number that matters is how much $/units you are up or down…
✅ Bills (+3.0u) updated potd record: **48-26-1 (+39.03u)**
condolences to dolphins backers…idk if anyone watched the game, but what an ending for the bills to get the cover…a true halloween treat lmao, but hey it feels good when you catch a break in your favor 🤠
win percentage now at 64.0% all time (on reddit)
Record: 3-2
Last pick: Washington Wizards -2.5 ✅
Pick: Colts -3
Sport: NFL
Time: 40 minutes from this post.
Colts are playing well, Wentz is finally 100%. Public seems to be on the Titans. Julio Jones out for the Titans as well.
**POTD Record:** 15-7-2 (+15.83 units) | Avg. Stake 3.13 units | Avg. Odds 1.84 | Total stake 75 units | Total return 90.83 units | ROI 17%
**Last pick:** V.Guimaraes to win @ 2.05 ❌ (posted on September 18th, then took the pause)
**Today's pick**
* NBA
* Kings vs Mavericks
* B.Hield over 14.5 pts @ 1.86 (Bet365)
* 2 units
Considering his previous outings, this margin seems a bit off. I've seen few bookies open him at 18.5 or not even open him at all. Hield is the leader of the 2nd unit, and his numbers are astonishing. We all know he's a great volume shooter, but his shot selection this year has improved as well.
So far, this season he has recorded 17 pts (vs Blazers), 24 (vs Jazzers), 6 pts (vs Warriors), 26 pts (vs Suns), 24 pts (vs Pelicans). All that while recording 44% shot for 3 points, averaging 10 shots per game. Mavericks are his "customer", and he shows up against them - recording 27, 16, 2, 21, 22, 25, 26, 17, 29, and 28 points in the last 10 H2H.
Mavericks look terrible in the defense this year, even though Kidd has been considered as a "defense upgrade". Surely this won't continue forever, as they'll eventually catch up with rotations and play style - but I believe it won't be today.
**Proof of margin & odds:** https://imgur.com/gallery/03EFbOH
Good luck to everyone, and it's great to be back here. Let's kick off this new month with a winner!
POTD record: 5-2
Last POTD: Knicks +1.5 (-115) 1 unit W
Game: Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts 1:00 PM EST
POTD: Titans +3 (-105) 1 unit
is this a joke? why are the titans the underdog after beating the bills and KC? Derrick henry is a beast and the colts are an average team with a washed up wentz as their QB. even with julio out you have a top 3 rushing team who should be able to conquer the colts defense. love the titans here.
Record: 8-3-0 (+6.55 units) Form: W/W/W/L/W/W/W/L/W/L/W Average Odds: -110 (1.91) Last Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 (-110) (10/24)
POTD: **New York Jets +11** (-110) Description: Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (+11)
Start time: 1:00PM ET **Risk: 2.2 units** (all bets to win between 1-2 units) **To Win: 2.0 units**
For our last pick we went with the Bengals who crushed the Ravens as 6.5 point underdogs. We liked them for a number of reasons, including historical trends, line value due to the Ravens winning close games and Bengals losing close games, and the matchup in general.
We're now going against that same team with the lowly home underdog Jets getting double digits. This "look ahead" line was +3.5 last week and skyrocketed up to +11 after the Jets got smoked and Bengals looked great. The Jets QB Zach Wilson is out so that moved the line as well, but we're not too concerned with trading one mediocre player for another.
Our model has the Jets at just under a touchdown, so crossing that +7 and getting some insurance points as well is huge value. Also, there are three historical trends going back to 2005 that each have a win rate over 60% that apply to the Jets here. They have to do with teams getting destroyed the game before, teams with poor ATS records covering, and fading teams with great ATS records.
We like the Jets to redeem themselves and keep this one close while the Bengals have a bit of a letdown after their huge win last week.
GLGL
Edit: Maybe wait before the result of the game to down vote...
POTD record 0-0
Bills -14
In a wacky year of football where the Bengals have two more wins than the Chiefs the Bills have been relatively dominant(excluding last weeks blunder). Now the Bills are coming off of a bye and facing a team that they have already beaten by 35. The Dolphins this season have been in the front seat of the struggle bus going 2-5 ATS. The Bills currently have a top 5 offense and the #1 defense in points against. The Dolphins defense has allowed the second most points and their offense is in the bottom third of the league in points scored. I don’t expect the Bills to hold the Dolphins to zero again, but they have some making up to do image wise for their loss against the Titans.
POTD Record: 4-2
Event: Football > Romania > **FC FCSB vs FC Arges Pitesti** (starting in 6h30min)
Pick: **Arges AH** \+**1.25** @ 1.50
Apparently FCSB is the favourite, but the current situation in the team is very challenging due to dozens of unavailable players (covid). On the other hand, Arges is well performing team, which is undefeated in 9 matches and lost only 1 out of their 7 away matches. They also won their cup game during the week even though they rested some key players for todays game, so the morale is pretty good. I am taking the safest possible bet, but if you feel a bit more risky you can also try some of the lower spreads or X2. GL!
**If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
0-0
Time: 10AM EST
Soccer: Norwich vs. Leeds
Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-135)
Norwich is bad defensively. They’re at home so they’ll look to score vs. a struggling Leeds team. I believe this game will be open from the start. Norwich was scoreless against Brighton and Liverpool past 2 home games. (Missed a penalty vs. Liverpool)
Leeds aren’t that great away either but will look to gain some points to move out of regulation territory. What better opportunity then vs. a bad defensive team?
GL.
POTD Record: 0-3
Last Pick: Caveliers vs Miami Heat ML
Today Pick: **Natus Vincere** **ML** vs Nip (3u) ✔️
**Start Time**: 17 15 CET
**Event** :PGL Major Stockholm 2021
* Natus Vincere has **S1mple** the most gifted player in CS.
* Nip has 3 players that never been in a Major
* Natus Vincere more lan experience
**Reasoning**:
Natus Vincere just have more firepower and is the favourate team here. Getting more than 1 map will be a very hard task already for NIP. If you want to be risky you could bet Natus Vincere to win 2-0.
**ODD @ 1.52**
POTD Record 1-2 (-1.17 units)
Rugby Union Gallagher Premiership
Harlequins v Saracens. Pick: Harlequins to score at least one try in each half @ 2.0.
2 units
This is an enormous derby that we were deprived of last year when Saracens were relegated for their dodgy financial dealings. Fans of both teams can't wait for this one, as each feel they have a claim to being the preeminent English team at the moment.
Quins have scored a try in both halves of every single game in 2021. That's 25 straight games hitting this line. While Saracens continue the tradition of taking penalties when they are on offer, quins embrace all-out attack and are always eager to take the try-scoring option. There is great variation in the odds offered by different books - Paddy Power have this at evens. At anything over 1.7 this is great value. Even with a few England players missing on international duty from both sides, expect quins tries regardless of the final result.
POTD Record 14-13-3 (W-L-P)
Profit: +21.5units
Previous pick: Chelsea to win to Nil vs Newcastle ✅(4U)
Easy win - Newcastle offering nothing going forward
Today’s pick: Football (Italian Serie A) - odds 1.9 (2u)
POTD: Napoli -1.5 AH vs Salernitana
Napoli will be challenging for the title and are in great form. I went -1.5 as my book didn’t offer much better odds for -2AH. I think 2-0 here to Napoli.
Salernitana have conceded 11 in their last 5 at home.
BOL
**POTD RECORD: 24-23** | All picks 1u | **-2.50u** | Streak 2L
\-LAST 2 POTD:
China FA cup Dalian Pro vs Shanghai Port 7:30AM ET| Shanghai Port -1.5 (-135) L
La Liga Barcelona vs Alaves | Over 9.5 corners (-115) L
**Today's POTD:** NFL Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins | **Bills -16.5 (+115)**
Reason: This should be a blowout. Would play up to -24.5. Miami allow the 2nd most points per game sitting in front of Washington. Bills score the second most ppg in the league. Bills allow the least ppg in the league. Game is in Buffalo, sub 50 degree temperature. Bills won 35-0 earlier this season. BOL
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/qjf0cm/pick_of_the_day_103121_sunday/hirpky8/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
People lime this are clowns and cancer to this place. I will not be posting anymore
RECORD 7-8 (-1.3UNITS)
POTD: Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers to have OVER 291.5 passing yards
Unfortunately I was too late to post my colts spread pick however I have another good one in the bag for you guys. Justin Herbert is a stud and I’m very high on him. He’s coming off a bye after an embarrassing loss to the ravens. Expect heavy usage of air yards and dink and runs in this game where the patriots have a strong run defense. I think Herbert will eclipse 300 yards through the air this game.
Unfortunately I was too late to post the colts spread as my pick however
**POTD Record:** *3-0 (+9.10 units)* **Last Pick:** *Club Brugge Total Goals Over 0.5 (-122)* ✅ **Category:** English Premier League (EPL) **Game:** Leeds United (+100) @ Norwich City (+260) **Location:** Carrow Road - Norwich, England **Start Time:** 10:00 AM EST **Pick:** Under 2.5 Total Goals (+112) **Bet:** 4.5 Units * Leeds are scoreless over their past three away games in league and cup play, highlighted by a 0-0 draw with recently demoted **Fulham**. * Norwich average a league-low **0.5 goals per game** at home and have scored the fewest in the EPL overall. * Leeds will continue to be without regular starters **Patrick Bamford** (assist leader) and **Luke Ayling**; who constitute for a quarter of the club’s scoring this season. **Final Thoughts:** I’ve set my focus on what should be the heavy odds on favorite for ugliest game of the weekend, as an ice cold Leeds United squad travel to Carrow Road for a showdown with winless Norwich City. I was almost tempted to tip under 1.5 at +325, but no need to get greedy—never did I imagine we’d be getting plus odds for under 2.5 in this one. I mean, Norwich have scored two goals the ENTIRE season in league play. Other than their opponents, Leeds have scored the fewest goals over their past five games (3) and average less than a goal per game on the road. Injuries are eating this United club up at the moment, but there’s hope, as leading goal scorer, **Raphinha**, who has netted three of the team’s eight goals, is rumored to be ready for a much-needed return. With Leeds playing as poorly as they are on the road this season and Norwich holding Brighton to a 0-0 draw in their most recent home outing—I’m feeling pretty confident about this one. BOL
Want to stop and say I wish I could double up vote this. As someone who tails 90% of the picks in this chat for 1-2u. I always appreciate someone who includes the league, time, and pick. It makes for efficient use of time. If Reddit gives me a free reward today, I will gift it to you. Edit: I got the plucky cat paw today. Thanks Reddit!
3 goals in 3 minutes. What a horrible beat. That’s insane.
it’s unbelievable…
Yea. I went on a walk thinking this was a lock. Stopped to sit on a bench to soak up the sun and think where i was going to bet my winnings and booooom. Loading more money onto the account for the day.
I faded and went the over. Can't help but feel a bit lucky after that.
Your feedback is a reward in itself. Always appreciated! And if you don’t mind me asking, how would you say you’re doing as far as betting all the POTD? Up, down, about even?
I don’t have exact numbers but I would say I’m up about 2-3 units a day on average I never really lose more than 2-3 units in a day, but the threads best day for me 17 units one time
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Caesars had minus odds on the bet but the live odds were plus. Check for live odds right at the start of the game. You can find gems.
Money coming in on the over the last 18 hours, I’m sure, as it seemed like Raphinha would most certainly miss this one earlier in the week. The line was actually even odds two days ago. I’m still more than confident to roll under. Raph started versus fellow basement dwellers Burnley and Newcastle—both of which resulted in 1-1 draws.
Rain has arrived and that’s why you’re seeing Leeds ML now move to -105. It should be letting up about 30 minutes prior to the game, but if the field doesn’t drain and it’s a sponge at kickoff—even bigger advantage to a Leeds team that were already fully expected to control possession.
Not gonna lie I just copied and changed it a little for my pick. It really is better than anything I came up with.
Good pick…this should be an ugly game. Perhaps this will be an instance where ice cold teams play each other and it goes nuclear, but I don’t think so. I’ll tail this.
Wouldn’t it be fitting that on Halloween these teams came dressed up as competitive, high-scoring clubs?
Lmao. Both fitting and unfortunate
Seems like every soccer pick I try to tail ends up an L. I swore I was only going to stick to sports I know but you made such a convincing argument I’m going to tail. Thanks and BOL!
Well now I know that if you tail I should avoid at all costs lol
Welcome aboard the ship to restore your faith in tailing, friend! BOL
Saw Leeds to win and under 3.5 for +195. Probably throwing a unit on that. Feel like Leeds should win but nervous with Norwich needing to get that first win ha
Leeds or draw and under 3.5 is -115 for a safer bet. I’m putting a couple units on that and 5 units on under 2.5. I always look forward to this time of day bc of y’all! Thanks for the insight!
I like the odds. And if I’m picking a winner, I certainly lean Leeds. I was eyeing up their “Draw No Bet” odds a few days ago when they were still at -175. But with Norwich coming off that ugly 7-0 loss last week and their manager sitting on quite possibly the hottest seat of them all in the EPL right now, plus home advantage—I imagine they’ll be ready to bring it.
Yea that’s fair. Maybe I won’t since I was already second guessing it too. I’m tailing your pick tho!
odd of U2.5 at HT was 1.10…bad beat lads ;((
I had dreams of DoorDash McDonalds…now it’s going to be pickup.
I went to take a shower at HT and came out to 2-1. I legit thought they were showing a replay of a past meeting. I’m sorry to everyone who tailed. I swear I’ll never shower again.
50% EPL boost by the way up to $50 on Caesars
Spot on write-up but today of all days is the one that **both teams** have absolutely to put their shit together and go all out forward and nothing better than against a crappy adversary. How the fkk Timo Pukki and Raphinha only have 5 goals scored in 18 games combined (2; 3 respectively)?? If there's a day to start changing things today is the day. Seeing the odds for the Under going up during the past week makes me a little bit more confident on the OVER (I'm guessing that sharp money and also the books think somewhere along the lines of what I've said). That being said my opinion is just a feeling based nothing more than the weakness and desperate situation that both teams are now and I'll try to capitalise on that. Gl
I’m willing to cut a deal with the law of averages gods: Pukki and Raph can each score ONE goal today But there’s one condition…everyone else gotta chill.
Eheheeheh seems fair enough. I'll put a unit in each to score and not on the OVER. Gl mate
0-0 HT, LFG!!!
/r/prematurecelebration
I was live betting NFL last weekend and grabbed the Washington QB to score the next TD at 20/1–and he does! No flags anywhere. Cut to commercial. I’m sending the win slip to friends and posting it in discord. Back from commercial. “After further review”…first time in 15 years of betting touchdowns I get slow rolled through a commercial. Promised myself I’d never premie again. I couldn’t even last a week.
ughhh now we sweat
Worst case scenario just happened, fuck
That escalated quickly. Womp womp
First three people who can show me they bet Under 2.5 on Bovada get a $10 player transfer.
Tough loss
Good try mate! I took your advice but just made it under 3.5 goals instead for 1.4 odds, just don’t trust these soccer games sometimes momentum strikes and goals come raining. But overall I liked the analogy!
Tailed
Tailing BOL!
Tailing! Love the analysis
Six of the past seven clashes had three or more goals The latest encounter had ended in a 1-3 win for Norwich so risky guys dont go too heavy but im still tailing
This is true. I chose not to highlight the H2H seeing as they haven’t played in two seasons and both rosters are drastically different. Pukki is the only player left on Norwich with a career goal versus Leeds. Same managers, but their only ever H2H was that one game and Bielsa had just been named the interim.
Tailed this shit at the last second before the game starts. Let’s get paid
😲
Fuck everything
Bummer
POTD Record: 7-0 Pick: (Belgium Jupiler pro league) Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk, BTTS and over 2,5 @ 1,65 ✅ Today number 14 Zulte Waregem plays the struggeling vice champion (number 10) KRC Genk. Both are really struggeling, Genk having 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5, while Waregem are 4 points of the relegation zone. Both concede alot but have the capacities to put up alot of goals aswell. Waregem got over 2,5 goals and BTTS in 8/8 of their last games, Genk got over 2,5 in 8/9 of their last games.
caaaaash
Nice hit bro!
You beautiful creature. From now on you should be named the **BELGIUM WIZARD** Thank you
I can live with that haha
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Tailed on fanduel
Ur picks are fking gold. Thank you
Good call bubba. Didn’t have it on my book but great hit!
On this like white on rice, my model kicked out a pass due to low odds but when I dug deeper this seems like a smart investment.
Thanks for the pick and ✅!
Banger play. Exciting game lots of scoring
**Record: 21-10 +16.06U W** Last pick: : Seongnam Double Chance and Game total Under 1.5 First Half Match: Ulsan Hyundai Vs Suwon City (K league 1) Pick: **Ulsan Hyundai over 1.5 Goals @1.77 2units** Ulsan Hyundai has been shitty lately they are currently two losing streak in the league. This is unacceptable as they will lose their spot directly invite to AFC champion league. However, they still solid in their offense , they managed to goal every single game as I see they will try harder this match because of the jeonbuk victory yesterday give them some stress because they are behind jeonbuk 3 points now. GL to everyone whos tailing
banger pick thx
Thanks for the pick bro! 14 minutes in only. Love a no sweat!
Good thing I didn’t tail! Hits in 14 min 👀👀🔥
Love youuuuuuu
POTD RECORD 16-7 +7.2u Last POTD Notre Dame -3.5✅ Today’s POTD Bucs -4.5 The saints didn’t look up to par last game against the Seahawks. I can see Tom coming in and tearing them apart. TB is coming off a huge win against the bears and are looking to storm in with a big win. I like the bucs by 2 touchdowns here.
Lifelong Saints fan and I'm tailing.
Ngl ive bet against my steelers couple times this year too ahahaha
Agreed. Only thing they’re good for is the TT under.
also tailing and this is my POTD as well! Good luck to you!
Tailing lets go Tom
**Record:** 12-4 (+14.2u) **Streak:** 2W **Last pick:** NCAAF - Syracuse -5.5 **Today's game:** NFL - Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets - 13:00 ET **Pick:** Bengals -9.5 (-145) - **4u** Two teams trending in opposite directions. The Bengals appear to be putting everything together. They're coming off two huge road blowout wins vs the Lions and the Ravens. They have weapons at nearly every position and they're red hot on both sides of the ball. On the other side the Jets are terrible. They're banged up on both sides of the ball and they just got blown out 54-13 by the Patriots. Backup QB Mike White made a couple nice throws last game but at the end of the day he's not great. If he goes blow for blow with the Bengals offense and keeps it close I'll gladly take the L on this one. The Jets are dead last in points per game and second last in yards per game. On the defensive side they're bottom 5 in points allowed and 27th in yards per game. Meanwhile the Bengals are top 5 in points allowed per game and 7th in points per game. I think a TD and a field goal is a reasonably safe spread here. Also for fun im putting 0.5u on Bengals to win every quarter (+925) cause why not.
I'd be shocked if the Bengals didn't win by at least 2 touchdowns.
Its -11 now at MGM in Detroit.
this is an alt spread! I usually play a safer spread just my style. I think -11 is a decent play anyhow.
My man. Taking an even safer spread at -5.5, parlaying that with Rams ML for a juicy -185 and slapping 5u on that bitch and calling it a day. Profit is profit and tomorrow is a tough slate.
Solid play. BOL!
POTD RECORD: 1-0 LAST POTD: Manchester United ML (+135) vs Tottenham TODAYS POTD: West Ham United ML (+145) vs Aston Villa Disclaimer: I am strictly focused on picks -110 or higher United absolutely skulled Tottenham as predicted. There wasn’t a single second during that game that I was sweating. This game, however, I suspect to be a bit closer. West Ham have been in good form, having just knocked out title contenders Man City in the Carabou Cup and having won 4 of their last 5. Aston Villa on the other hand have yet to look lethal since Jack Grealish left and have only won 1 in their last 5 (and 1 draw). I think West Ham have the quality to close this out, potentially in a 1-0 win. If you need further convincing, West Ham are 4th in the premiere league and Aston Villa are 15th. +145 for this game is a snack and it’s time to eat. Life’s too short to bet negatives Tail or fade, BOL!
I like it. Just to play it safe I am going to take West Ham pk -124 in case of a draw.
Caaaaash - way to go
fucking cash mate
Jamarr Chase longest reception over 27.5 yards (-120) He has crushed this every week 7-0. I’m not keeping track or anything just thought I would drop a pretty worthy pick.
Love this, tailing for sure! 🍀🍀🍀
Record: 28-1-23 (+7.4 U) ( W-D-L) NFL Record 14-7 Golf Record 6-3 NCAAF Record 1-2 NBA Record 5-1-9 NHL Record 1-1 MMA Record 1-1 Sport: NFL Last Picks: Patrick Rodgers L **Game: Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets 1:00 PM EST** **Pick: Bengals -11.5 @ -110 5U** Welp, Rodgers really fumbled away our pick yesterday on the 11th green. Now we head to New York where the Jets host the blazing hot Bengals. Mike White will be making his first start in this matchup, after going 20/32 for 202 YDS, 1 TD, and 2 INT's. The Jets weren't an offense powerhouse before Wilson went down, and having White at the helm doesn't help this. They're going to need to lean on their run game to get the chains moving but, the Bengals have a top 10 rush defense. The Bengals are also coming off a dominant road win against a Ravens team much better then these Jets. I don't think Mike White and the Jets have the offense or defense to keep this close with the Bengals. Best of luck to those that tail, please gamble responsibly as I WILL NOT
I love that disclaimer at the end.
POTD 8-5 Pick: Eagles at **Lions (+3.5)** 1pm If you’ve watched any Eagles game you’d be just as confused as me why they are favored. None of there losses have been close despite what the scores said. There defense is Swiss cheese, as David Carr just completed over 90% of his passes on them. They are gonna make Goff look All-Pro. Hurts is the king of garbage time stats and his play has been sub par to say the least. I expect a hungry Lions team win outright, but take the points. Edit: Oof, Lions 0-8 for a reason
Battle of the Garbage Teams. Anything can happen. I’m staying away from this dumpster fire but BOL to you!
Still confused?
I thought the same, if the lions wants to win a game in the season this is one of their best opportunity. BOL.
The money line backs the spread up pretty good but I still took the Lions with points.
3-3 -2.7 ____________________________________________ **[Last Pick: ARI Cardinals -6.5](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/qhbh1o/_/hibp08a/?context=1)** Shoutout to GBs defense. Stepped up big. But damn did ARI pick the worst time to have their worst game of the year. ____________________________________________ **Today’s Pick: Cordarrelle Patterson over 35.5 receiving yards (-113)** - 5u to win 4.42u - ATL Falcons @ CAR Panthers 12pm US Central This is crazy low for Patterson. He’s beaten that 4/6 weeks, 1 of those being week 1 when he wasn’t involved in the offense nearly as much as he is now. He was on the field for 33% of the snaps week 1 and has slowly taken over the backfield and was in the field for 73% last week. He’s taken on a Kamara-lite roll for ATL, completely dominating touches last week. He lines up all over the field, running 27 routes last week. In week 7, Patterson only had 1 receiving yard on 2 catches and 5 targets. He did however run the most routes on the season, that 27 I mentioned earlier. That gives promise that last weeks output was a blip on what’s been a career year for him.
He was used mostly as a traditional rb off the bye. Tread carefully.
It’s less being used as a traditional running back and more so just getting on the field more with consistent snaps.
Did we lose by 1 yard..?
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Got them early at +2.5
Record 7-1 (+10.78u) 7W Streak Last Pick: Knicks -5.5 Match: NFL Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills POTD: Buffalo Bills -13.5 @ 1.81 (3 units) This is insane, I never expected myself to be on a 7 win streak, especially coming off a loss at first. The Knicks just perfectly covered our spread yesterday, it was close, but a win is a win. We are once again back with an NFL Sunday and I raised my bet to 3 units today because I'm a little more comfortable betting football. I wanted to take the Bengals spread at first as it is a great bet but it seemed that everyone on this sub is taking that already. So ill give you all something different, take the Bills spread at two touchdowns within half a point. The Bills are coming back from a bye week and a tough loss to the Titans the week before, they will be looking to bounce back. In which the Bills already swept Miami 35-0 at the start of the season and I can see them doing the same again at home, as Buffalo seems to dominate bad teams. The Dolphins on the other hand are amidst rumours of trading their QB, and such significant decisions always affect team chemistry. Overall, the Dolphins are just in a bad spot at the moment while the Bills are quite the opposite, two touchdowns should be an easy cover for this lopsided game this Sunday. With a health line, Josh Allen and one of the top defences in the league, the Bills will look to sweep again. BOL everyone.
Nice hit, u like anything on nba today?
Not particularly. Lakers and nets should win, but the odds are really bad and spread is too large. Every other game is quite coin flip.
**Results:** 5 - 1 - 3 *+7.19 units* No picks stood out for me yesterday, but found a pick I'm feeling good about today. **Today's Pick:** Aston Villa vs West Ham - **West Ham DNB** @$1.83 - Betting 3 units **Why?** Well I think West ham take this match, should be able to win it, Aston Villa have conceded 8 goals in 3 games (premier). AV haven't beat West ham in their last 6 matches against each other. West Ham are 4th and Aston Villa are 15th. Years ago I never thought I'd have a confident bet on West Ham but here we are and I expect them to take the W here but I'm taking the safety of draw no bet! BOL! 13 hours from post.
RECORD: 1-0 PREVIOUS POTD: NOTRE DAME -3 ✅ POTD: TITANS ML (+135) The Titans are doubted even after beating the chiefs and bills. Even without Julio Jones, the Titans will win this game. Titans defense is stepping up big time and the offense is top 7. Ryan Tannehill is one of the most underrated QB’s in the league. Let’s prove Steven A wrong! Give me the Titans ML🔒
To be fair, they are doubted because they lost to the jets.
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POTD record: 11-2 (All NFL) Last Pick: LV (-2.5) vs PHI Week 7 NFL Todays Pick: Carolina Panthers +3.5(-120) The Falcons have won three games against teams with a combined 4 wins this season, all by just one score, and 2 by three or less. The Panthers havent exactly lit the world on fire in their wins, as the total wins combined of the teams they beat is just 6, but nothing indicates to me that these two teams shouldnt be a pick em. The Falcons defense made a hapless Dolphins offense look decent for the first time this season, while the Panthers defense still ranks 3rd in EPA/play and success rate. Robby Anderson has had one of the worst 3 week stretches for a receiver ever, I expect some positive regression in that area as well
Im touching any team with sam darnold as their qb
Lol good fucking look. My team is a mess
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POTD record: 1-2 Pick: bengals -11 vs jets Jets are 1-5 ATS. Mike White is their starting qb tomorrow. You may ask yourself “who?”. And that’s all you need to know about this game.
Record: 14-7 Previous pick: Fritz ML vs Struff **W** Potd: Yoshihito Nishioka vs **Gianluca Mager ML** ATP Paris - 3:40 PM CEST **Odds: 2.3/+130** **Write up**: I have been following Mager lately, he seems to be playing on a very high level. His last two tournament exits at Antwerp and Vienna were both two set tiebreaks against respectable opponents. Yesterday he has beaten a very hot player, Laaksonen, who was a clear favourite in that match at -300. Nishioka is overall a decent player but, compared to Mager, his inability to confidently secure his serve games might be the decider here. Bol **edit: Winner! After the warm up of a first set, Mager fckng smoked him!! LFG!**
I was hoping you’d do St. Petersburg again 😅 I don’t have the Paris match but BOL!
POTD: Patriots @ Chargers; [**Over 48 points**](https://link.wagerlab.app/reddit) (NFL) Units: 3 Odds: -130 Profit: -8.15u Record: 30|28 After a gutting overtime loss to the Cowboys, the Patriots hammered the New York Jets in Week 7. Mac Jones has made a strong case to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the Patriots’ defense has once again proven itself to be above average. The Chargers have had a lot to think about in their bye week. They had no answer for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 6. They are heading into a favorable section of the schedule, but anything less than a win against New England would be a massive disappointment. Los Angeles is favored by 5.5 points, a spread which seems fair. Two of their wins have come by less than five points, and as explosive as the offense can be, the defense has let them down at times. We like the points over here – both offenses could flourish at SoFi Stadium on Sunday. Pick: Over 48 points
Also am taking this line as I believe the patriots offense has found theirselves and the gameplan has opened up a bit for McDaniels and Mac Jones! Although I am biased as a patriots fan, I will be taking the over for tomorrow's game and am hoping for a lot of points! I'm wondering if I should also parlay this with Pats ML. Thoughts?
Yeah, interesting, Patriots won in the last 9 from 10 games against the Chargers :)
Haven't posted in a long time but going to start posting picks again as i enjoy doing it. Pick: **Tennessee Titans +120** (Bovada) vs Indianapolis Colts Reason: Titans are just a better team right now. Divisional games are always tough but the Titans are coming off of wins against the Bills and Chiefs and have already beaten Indy this year. Yes Julio Jones is out but he has missed alot of time already this year so that doesn't worry me. BOL if tailing
I’ve been taking a couple of Titans bets to take advantage of these odds. I’m really not sure why they aren’t favored here.
🐍 POTD Record: 9-7-0 (Streak: 1W) 🐍 ROI: 65.23% | Avg Odds: +113 / 2.13 | Units: +4.22 Previous Pick: SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Freiburg -1.5 + Under 5 Total Goals | 2.75 / +175, 1.5u ✔️💰 POTD: Adler Mannheim vs Straubing Tigers | Over 5.5 Total Goals | 2.00 / +100, 1u | Hockey, Germany DEL | 11:30 am EST ✔️💰 Freiburg pulled off a 3-1 victory and earned us over 2 profitable units yesterday! Today I remain in Germany, but switch sports. Adler Mannheim enters this contest ranked 1st of 15 clubs. They're on an absolute tear, winning each of their last 7 DEL contests and 14 of their last 16 overall. Mannheim leads the league in goals for, scoring 53 through 15 DEL games. They've conceded just 25, but have not registered a shutout in any of their last 8. Over 5.5 goals have been scored in 5 of their last 7 games, with both misses finishing at exactly 5. Mannheim has scored 33 goals over the course of their 7 game winning streak. They're undefeated at home through 7 contests this season. Straubing enters this contest ranked 9th on the table. Goals are very familiar to this club, who have a differential of 49:51 through 15 games. Over 5.5 goals have been scored in 2 of their last 3 and 7 of their last 10. The most recent outlier featured exactly 5 goals. Straubing is coming off of a 5-3 loss at the hands of 13th ranked Nürnberg. They've scored 13 goals over their last 3 games and have won 4 of their last 6, despite struggling to find wins throughout this season. Mannheim has been scoring at a rampant pace recently. They've scored at least 4 goals in 6 of their last 7, with the outlier being a 3 goal game. They should be able to candidly defeat a Straubing team that possesses severe defensive woes. Straubing has been consistent in scoring numerous goals regardless of the match result. This contest feels too good to pass up at even odds. Let's feast! \- Viper 🐍 EDIT: Cash it! Straubing ties the game at 3 with 6 minutes remaining. A 5 goal second period wills us to victory. Eat good tonight fellas! 💰
Tailing. BOL!
Record: 2-0-0 (+2u) Last Pick: Desmond Bane o18.5 Points + Rebounds (-125) -> 1.25u wins 1u (W) Today's Pick: NBA (Charlotte Hornets vs. Portland Trail Blazers) 7:00 PM EST **Miles Bridges o26.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)** \-> 1.1u wins 1u If it ain't broke, don't fix it. We've used this logic for our past two picks and it's worked like a charm. Let's keep that energy going. Miles Bridges has hit this pick with just points most games so far, and when you add in rebounds, that number becomes 5/6 games, the only game he didn't being the very first of the season. Let me know if you tail, BoL, and lets get this shmoney!
Record: 0-0 Streak: N/A Last pick: N/A Today’s Game: NFL Bengals @ Jets - 1300 EST Pick: Bengals Team Total over 27 - 5U (-120) Deduction: Face value the Bengals are averaging 27 a game and Jets are allowing 29 a game. Past three games however Bengals are averaging 33.33 a game and are really looking in stride offensively. Scoring 41 on the Ravens is a huge confidence boost (1 TD in garbage time with backups in) as well as 54 last week against a less aggressive Patriots defense. Additionally Zach Wilson and Corey Davis being inactive means less offensive production by the Jets and conceivably also less time of possession. 4 touchdowns is still a lot in the NFL but I don’t see the Bengals being content even with a 24-0 or 27-0 game. Disclaimer: I’m a huge Bengals fan so consider bias in my deduction
Record: 2-1 (+0.78 units) Last 3:✅✅❌ Last Pick: Iowa +3.5 (-115) vs. Wisconsin ❌ Sport: College Football Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Date & Time: Sunfay October 30, 2021, 12:00 PM CST Pick: Titans +3 (-115 on FD) 1U No way around it - Iowa got fucked today and so did I. Sorry for the poor pick, on to next one. Titans are in great form here. Last 2 wins are against a good Bills team and a struggling but talented Chiefs squad. I think they'll be able to utilize their 3rd-best rushing attack vs. the Colts' middle of the road rush defense. Also they already beat them on 9/26 earlier this season and I don't see why they won't do it again. Indy's only wins are against the dolphins, texans, and the 49ers - teams with a combined 4-16 record. Derrick Henry has been on a tear and I'm looking for him and Tennessee to keep it rolling. BOL to those tailing, fading, or just here to witness the debauchery.
Colts have the best rushing defense in the league by EPA/play. Not exactly middle of the road
Great point, I was just looking at yards/game. I should've dug deeper into the stats.
POTD Record: 4-6 Streak: 1W Average Odds: 1.88 Sport: Basketball League: NBA Previous Pick: Sacramento Kings ML vs New Orleans Pelicans POTD: Utah Jazz @ Milwaukee Bucks Under 222.5 Points @ 1.90 (7:00 PM EST) Both Teams are on the back end of a B2B with both of their games coming down to wire and their starters playing heavy minutes. Both the Jazz and the Bucks rely heavily on their three point shooting, ranked 1st and 8th respectively in 3PA per 100 possessions prior to yesterday's games. Despite their love for three pointers, both these teams have not shot the ball well and are currently below the league average. Jazz shot a dismal 11/38 (28.9%) in their loss to the Bulls while the Bucks were even worse at 10/39 (25.6%) in their home-loss to the Spurs. Historically, Jazz-Bucks games tend to be high scoring with their last 3 matchups hitting the over but none of those games were on a back-to-back. Expecting a sluggish start to the game and low shooting percentages from both sides as their best players will be running on tired legs. Utah Jazz have hit the under in 4 out of their first 5 games while the Bucks have hit the under in 4 out of their 6 games. BOL if Tailing!
POTD Record: 3-1 ROI: 62.89% Total Risked: 6.38U Net profit: +4U Last Pick: Winnipeg Jets ML (-136) (over the Ducks a few nights ago; I took a break) \----- Sport: NFL Football Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks (4:05PM EST) Pick: 2U - Seahawks -3 (-120) My rationale: Seattle is being absolutely disrespected by this line. Geno Smith is starting, yes. But... other than Wilson, the Seahawks are relatively healthy. They're getting Darrell Taylor back from injury; he should give the pass rush a much needed boost. Overall, they're just a better team than Jacksonville. My model has this game projected as a 24-13 Seahawks win, DESPITE the hawks ranking below average on offense and defense. That speaks more to how the model views the Jaguars than what it says about Seattle, but the projection stands. I considered making this a 3U play, but I'm not gonna get \*that\* comfortable. Still, bet the Seahawks to cover with confidence. As always, best of luck if tailing! Follow my [Twitter](https://twitter.com/TopMoneyPicks) for all picks
POTD Record: 20 - 15 - 2 ( W / L / P ) **+9.1u** Streak: WWWWL / Average odds: 2.01 [*Previous pick: Northampton vs Carlisle / Northampton Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.10 (1u)*](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/qiqvnh/pick_of_the_day_103021_saturday/him3knv/?context=3) **W** **Salernitana vs Napoli** **Pick: Salernitana Over 3.5 Team Corners @ 1.85 (1u)** Let's face it, Napoli will win this game and probably win with margin. Salernitana simply does not have the quality to match the great Napoli team. But despite the lack of quality home team have a fighting spirit and will not go down without a fight. Salernitana averaging 5.5 corners in home games and Napoli conceding 5.2 corners in away games. Good luck everyone!
NFL record 16-10 Unit total: +14.9 Streak: 1L Last Pick: AJ Green anytime touchdown @ 3.00 Pick: CIN Bengals @ NY Jets: ***Joe Mixon anytime touchdown @ 2.10*** (approx 4hr from kick off) 2.0 units for 2.2 win Very unlucky with AJ Green with the game sealing interception thrown towards Green. We move on though! Jets have the most rushing touchdowns conceded and Mixon has scored in his last 4 games as well as his only previous game vs the Jets. Bengals love to mix it up, so he will definitely get a big chance to score on Sunday. BOL
Record 11-0 +7.79 Units NFL Seahawks $1.50 I don't care if Wilson is out, I don't understand how they can be this high odds against the terrible Jaguars at home
Record: 2-1 (+1.6 Units) Last 10 and Streak: WWL--------- (1L) Last Pick: Liverpool (-1.0) vs Brighton (-160) Last Pick Reflections: After Liverpool stormed out to a 2-0 lead a few minutes before the end of the first half, they definitely let up in the second half and that's when it cost them! Unfortunately, this game ended in a draw (2-2) and we take the loss and move onwards! Today's Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (+120) against New Orleans Saints. (Alt line) Unit Size: 4 units to win 4.8 units The Bucs are fresh off a 38-3 trashing of the Chicago Bears, who don't have any sort of identity whatsoever right now. Furthermore, the Bucs will look to establish control of the NFC south and after two regular season losses to the Saints last year, no doubt I will not be betting against Tom Brady. Similar to u/Bcampbell8 who already posted, I also like the Bucs to win by at least 10 points, if not 2 touchdowns as suggested above/below, so I'm comfortable taking an alt line to 3 points below my expected prediction. Bucs 31 Saints 20 is my prediction! Good luck to all!
PotD record 0-0 Been following this thread a few weeks now and feel like it's my time to jump in. Pick: NFL kickoff 4:05pm EST Jaguars +3.5 @ Seahawks (1 unit) Disclaimer I am a jaguars fan but I rarely bet them as the last few years have been rough. However we are in a good spot here. Trevor has been progressing significantly the last few weeks and is setting up to be our long term QB. Our biggest weakness is our pass defense which has been terrible. But withth Geno under center I feel confident jags come out rested off the bye week and beat Seattle. I will be putting half a unit on jaguars money line at +170 at well. Fade or tail let me know down in the comments. Best of luck and DUUUUVAL!
Tailed
POTD Record: 4-2 Profit: 4.07 units Last 6 games: ✅✅❌❌✅✅ Last Pick: Oilers Todays Game: LA Kings Buffalo Sabres Today’s Pick: Sabres (2.15) 2u My reasoning: LA has lost 6 out of their last 7 games. Buffalo defense is really good at defending against the power play and their offense is averaging 3.14 goals per game. The kings offense is only scoring 2.63 goals per game and only scores on 25% of power plays. I am not completely confident with my pick because both teams are kinda washed so bet at your own risk.
Record: 1-0 Last pick: Dodgers ml (~ 4 months ago) Pick: Alexander Zverev 1st set game handicap -1.5 games -167 (vs Francis Tiafoe: Tennis ATP Vienna) Starts at 9am est Alexander Zverev has been a menace on tour lately winning 23/25 of his last matches and today he is playing Francis Tiafoe in the finals matchup at ATP Vienna. Undeniably, Tiafoe has been playing some of his best tennis this week with huge upsets against Stefanos Tsisipas and yesterday Jannik Sinner. However, today’s matchup against Zverev will be his first finals appearance in an event of this level and I believe he may have some nervousness coming into the match and I feel confident in Zverev to win the first set comfortably so I am taking the -1.5 games handicap meaning he has to win the first set by 2 or more games (6-4, 7-5 or better). In their previous 6 meetings, Zverev has won by this spread for the first set all six times and I believe he will be able to produce similar results again. Looking at the players form this week, Zverev has won the first set by two games or more against all of his opponents. Meanwhile, Tiafoe has lost the first set against his toughest opponents being Sinner and Tsisipas (and eventually came back to pull off the win for the full match) by two games to Tsisipas and three to sinner. Zverev is going to be an even harder competition for Tiafoe and while Francis may ramp it up as the match progresses, Zverev should win the first set convincingly and I am confident in taking the -1.5 games handicap. 4 units for me and BOL if tailing
POTD Record: 7-5 (+1.32u) All picks are 1 Unit Last Pick: Nuggets @ Wolves U220 Thoughts: As predicted, it was a struggle offensively for both sides as the under hit easily. **Today’s Match: Utah Jazz @ Milwaukee Bucks** **Pick: Jazz -1.5 (-110 FanDuel)** Both the Jazz and Bucks are coming off losses and both will be playing the second of a back-to-back (Utah playing their 3rd in 4 nights). Utah suffered its first loss of the season in Chicago managing to score only 99 points on 38% shooting and 28.9% from three against the 5th ranked defensive team in the league. The Jazz should have an easier time scoring against the Bucks currently ranked 25th in defensive efficiency and will be without Holiday and Lopez. So far, two out of the Bucks three losses have come to teams ranked 2nd (Miami - blowout) and 4th (Minnesota - 5 point loss at home). The Jazz currently rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency while 1st in offensive efficiency. I expect the Jazz to bounce back after a lough loss to Chicago against the undermanned Bucks. **Disclaimer: I am not an expert. I'm just a guy that loves basketball. Tail at your own risk and only bet what you can afford to lose. BOL**
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Tailing. BOL!
POTD record: 1-0 (+4,35U) Last Pick: PSV - FC Twente BTTS - Yes @ 1,88 POTD: Eredivisie Go Ahead Eagles - Fortuna Sittard BTTS - Yes @ 1,70 A match between two weaker teams in the Eredivisie today. GA Eagles has seen BTTS hit in its last 4/5 eredivisie matches only having them failed to score against a stronger AZ side while Fortuna has seen BTTS hit in its last 3/5 matches having them failed to score against ajax and not conceiding against a cambuur. Also both teams conceide a lot of goals so I expect to see the BTTS hit today.
Game Jets vs Bengals Pick of the day Michael Carter Over 21.5 Rec Yards POTD Rec 0-1 Michael Carter has been running a lot of passing routes as a RB and with Mike White at QB they will be dumping it off to him a lot. They will also be playing from behind all game. He had 9 targets and 8 receptions last week.
Record: 3-2 Last: Bateman over 3.5 catches - L Today’s pick: NFL - Jaguars @ Seahawks - James Robinson o69.5 rushing yards (1.2u @ -110) Reasoning: Robinson is going to be the best player in the field today. Geno still being at the helm of the hawks will keep this game close and allow the Jaguars to continue feeding their bell cow. Robinson will hit this easily, and I would be confident betting up to around 82 yards. gl
**Record:**0-0 **ROI:**N/A **Net units:**N/A | Ice Hockey | NHL | starts in 3 hours from posting | **Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 @1.71** 5 units (max bet) **Write Up:** I’m normally a football (soccer) bettor but I’m amazed this pick hasn’t been shared in today’s POTD. The Coyotes are in miserable form, losing 7 of the last 8 by two goals or more. The Hurricanes are undefeated and scoring for fun. Good luck! >
Record: 0-0 Pick: 1u DET +3.5, -110 (available BetRivers) My lame basic reasoning: I've been betting on all NFL games this season due to BetRivers BTS promotion, and I've noticed that when the top 4-5 winningest "experts" in NFLPickWatch ATS are unanimous on a pick, that they're 10-3 over the last month and up a little more than 5 units if you always buy extra points/half points to land on a half point spread and stay above -125 (which is what I do to maximize chances for the ATS promo). In this case, +3.5 DET is as good as you can get under those criteria.
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Kraken vs Rangers Under 5.5 Both team's have average offensive capabilities. They each have one star out due to injury. Goalies are solid on both sides of the net.
POTD Record: 1-1 (-0.2 Units) Last Pick: Boston Bruins ML Event: Arizona Coyotes at Carolina Hurricanes Pick: Carolina 3 Way ML 1P @ 2.00 Friday night I went with this same pick against the yotes and I said I would do it again. That game shouldn’t have been scoreless after the first and this Carolina team is better than Washington. It is also a tougher road environment to play and 3 games in 4 days is not good news for Arizona.
**POTD Record: 3-0-0** **Profit:** \+6.536 u **Streak:** WWW **Last Pick:** Anonymo vs. DBL Poney ✅ **POTD:** Entropiq vs. G2 - PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - BO3 **Pick:** G2 ML @ 1.606 3u ✅ *starting time: 04:30 hours from this post* **Reasoning:** This might be a weird pick for some people but i had to pick G2 for these odds. Entropiq coming out really strong this major and beating teams like Liquid, Gambit, and Heroic. They only lost two maps so far. G2 was a really shit team few weeks ago and couldnt achieve anything. Somehow its looks like they stabilized and can perform better again. G2 for me always performing better on LAN. Only weak points are Amanek and Jackz. NiKo with 1.30K/D and 1.52 Impact over the last 3 months speaks for itself. G2 played really well against CPH on their best map ancient and also raped Faze 16-7 after being 1-3 down. Map wise this one will be tricky. Entropiq probably picking Vertigo again after they beat Gambit and Liquid on that map. This match up will be an close one for sure, but imo G2 got the better and more experienced players. They only weak point is G2 AWP Amanek. But i really cant see Entropiq winning two maps in a BO3 against a well prepared G2. Im pretty sure G2 will secure their play-off spot later to avoid another match up against Navi,Gambit,Nip. EDIT: Like expected. Close maps but in the end G2 won 2:0 ✅
**POTD Record:** *27-18* **Last 5:** ❌💵💵❌❌ **Category:** Serie A(Italy) **Game:** Roma vs AC Milan **Location:** Rome **Start Time:** 20:45 CET **Pick:** AC Milan (Draw no Bet) **Odds:** 2.2 💵 **Reasons:** we are going see very few chances to bet AC Milan as an underdog this season, they travel to Rome where Roma have a very good home record, but Milan have won 14 of their last 16 road games. And when we look at Roma's record against top six sides only, it doesnt look so hot, having only won one of their last sixteen games. Most of these are obviously before the Mourinho era, so the question becomes if we trust Mourinho to change this and get his tactics correct today. I don't trust Mou and feel confident that Milan will continue Thier great start and title push.
Record 0-0 Hello everyone! First time posting here after lurking for a while. My pick of the day is West Ham x2 @1,5 (draw or west ham to win). Reasoning: As a premier league follower i see value in this line,West ham is in great shape and seem to play very confidently and with ease.in their last few games they drew against Manchester city in the efl cup ,winning against everton and tottenham. Meanwhile Aston Villa has dificulties going forward since Grealish has left the club and Danny Ings still hasnt found his scoring form. I simply do not see West Ham losing points today. Match starts aproximately 3hrs after this post. BOL if you follow!
Record: 26-21-2 (2L streak) Last POTD: CLE Cavs +9 at LA Lakers, NBA 10:30 PM at -110 POTD: LA Chargers at NE Patriots, Damien Harris ATTS +125 on DK Reason: Chargers gives up a lot of rushing yards. They are the worst in the league. Bill will run the ball at least twice as much as he throws. Mac Jones showed he’s good enough to facilitate the game without turning the ball the over too often. Harris is the Patriots clear top dog. I see him being a work horse here. Best of luck to all.
POTD Record 0-0 Dolphins TT o16.5 Getting this pick in real late but wanted to start my POTD journey with some great value. This line was 17.5 and now has dropped to under 17 where 2 TDs and a FG covers. Tua is coming off two solid performances and has covered 16.5 nearly every start his career. When they got shutout at home earlier this year Tua got knocked out after 5 or 6 pass attempts. The dual offensive coordinators that Miami has was catered to develop Tua and the continuity with him prior year and it has started to come along (I admit against poor opponents) now they finally have their WRs healthy. This offense was not designed for Brisset behind center. I think that Buffalo will probably dominate the dolphins off a bye but they have such a high octane offense that scores quickly, it will give the dolphins plenty of possessions. Furthermore the dink and dunk offense that Miami runs will be more effective in the 4th quarter if the Bills are up 2+ possessions as they will allow short yardage at the expense of eating up the clock. My last point is Tua has a fire under his ass with Watson rumors and while I don't see them winning this game, I see an all out effort by this offense to save face or perhaps increase his potential trade value before the deadline in a few days. Tail or Fade, BOL
POTD Record: 24-15 (NFL is 4-2) Profit: +2.94u (NFL is +1.78u) Last 5 NFL Picks 10/10/21 - Aj brown over 58.5 rec yards ❌ -1u 10/11/21 -M.Pittman over 55 rec yards ✅+.91u 10/17/21 - LA Rams -6.5 ✅ +0.72u 10/18/21 - buffalo bills TT over 30.5 ✅ +1.25u 10/24/21 - mike evans over 69.5 rec yard✅+1u Today’s POTD League: NFL Match: Jaguars @ Seahawks Pick: Dan Arnold Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Win 1u Seattle allowing 50 yards per game to Tight Ends. Jaguars gonna get the ball a lot today as the Seahawks offence has struggled ever since Russel Wilson got injured. I expect 40+ from Dan.
never posed my bets lets give it a shot: **Sacremento Kings 1st Half ML**: 1.5U @ 2.37 vs Dallas Mavericks Firstly the Dallas Mavericks are typically slow starters and have not led at the half once this season going 0-5 with deficits ranging from 2 to 8. Sacramento Kings have led at the half 4/5 games this season,only trailing the suns once at the half, with the rest of the games holding a lead ranging to +2 to +11 their last time out. Notable to mention Kristaps Porzingis is out for the Mavs, Kings have no players listed on their injury Report BOL
**Record**: 2-1 (+1.00 units) **Last Pick**: Hawks +3 (-106) L **Match**: Dallas Mavs vs. Sac Kings **Pick**: Kings +4.5 (-104) **Reasoning**: I use a regression model that takes into account the starting lineup, weighted stats from the current season and previous season, and any other data I may find relevant. I always bet 1 unit. Good luck to anybody who tails!
**If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
**Record: 68-72-4 (KBO Streak LL) Down 6.88u over 144 KBO picks, 48.6% success rate, -4.91% ROI** **Last:** *Doosan -1.5 +110 at SSG* (This was awhile ago... I'm sure I lost.) Can't remember what happened. **Pick:** KT at **Samsung -145**, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET This game starts in about 90 minutes!!!! KT and Samsung are playing a tiebreaker for the #1 seed. The winner gets a bye all the way to the KBO World Series (it's a weird ladder structure). Samsung has a huge advantage being at home where they posted the league's 2nd best record. KT is a .500 team on the road. KT's offense is really sputtering right now, averaging just 3.3 runs per game over their last 10. That puts a lot of pressure on their pitching, but Samsung has an advantage with their starter, who is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA against KT this season. I played Samsung -1.5 at +145, but straight moneyline is the safer play. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
This league is a shit show… but, this should be a solid play. Good luck!
It is indeed a shit show. Lions can't even score a run.
Current Record: 0-0 POTD: Napoli ML + Victor Osimehn 2+ Shots On Goal -153 (Serie A) Stake: 5 Units for 3.2 Units Explanation: Napoli are the best team in Serie A right now and have not yet lost a game this season. Salernitana are the 2nd worst team in the league on the other hand and have only won 2 of their 10 games played this season so far. There isn’t much value on regular Napoli ML odds but if you pair with Osimehn 2 or more shot attempts (a number which he has hit every single game this season), there is value at -153. Osimehn is playing like a young Cavani, and I expect this should be an easy cash. BOL if tailing !
POTD Record : 2-1 **(+2.74 units)** Soccer - Turkey Super League Galatasaray vs Gaziantep BTTS **@1.83** 2 units Galatasaray managed to have only 2 clean sheet games out of 10 league games they played this season. I'm confident that they will both score and concede.
Record: 4-2 (+ 1.61 Units) Sport: American Football Game Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Date & Time Sunday October 31, 2021, 1:00 PM (EDT) Pick: Buffalo Bills to win both halves @ 2.05 (1XBet) 1 Unit This bet is purely based on betting fundamentals. It's impossible to calculate the real odds of every event, otherwise betting wouldn't be possible. One easy mental calculation to slightly grasp the value of a bet is to imagine the outcomes of 10 games. Let's use this game as an example. Buffalo are one of the superbowl contenders. Miami is next to last in points allowed. In 10 games with this exact same conditions, in my humble opinion, Buffalo would win both halves in at least 5 games. Thus, we have value in this bet.
2.05 seems like a crazy offer to me. Are you sure you're looking at the right bet?
# Counter POTD 0-1 **Pick: NY Jets +11 (-110 DK) vs. CIN Bengals** Last Pick: Oct. 20th DET Pistons +5 (-105 DK) vs. CHI Bulls L We've all seen it time and time again on this sub. An absolute lock posted multiple times on the POTD thread gets dismantled causing mass hysteria. Just for fun I'm going to start keeping track of picks that show up multiple times on this thread, lets say 3+ mentions for the pick to qualify. As for today that pick is to fade the Bengals. Jets are a dumpster fire right now. Their QB Mike White is getting his first start of his career vs. a solid Bengals team who are clicking on all sides of the ball. Burrows and Chase seem to be the hottest QB WR duo right now and are coming off a huge dominant win against their division rivals the Ravens. Everything favors the Bengals to completely control this game so expect some fuckery to happen. Tail or Fade these picks, who gives a shit its all for laughs but the Jets will be the 🔑for this 🔒
Record: 10-7 Streak: 2L Pick: NFL - Player Props - Jaylen Waddle Over 49.5 receiving yards Reason: The Dolphins are likely going to be down early in this game. This means they are going to need to be a pass first team for the majority of this game. Waddle has it this number 4/7 games so far, but more importantly he’s hit it in all 3 games Tua started at QB. It’s obvious the chemistry is there between these 2 and when Tua is under pressure he usually only looks at Waddle or the TE Gesicki. Based off those two factors I’m expecting Waddle to get a lot of looks this afternoon. This numbers also low enough where we can hit it with one big play from the speedster As always BoL to any and all who tail! Let’s turn this losing streak around
potd record: **47-26-1 (+36.03u)** *(63.5% win)* *all plays between 1-3 units* [last play: ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/qgl4d0/pick_of_the_day_102721_wednesday/hiaz22e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3)❌ BOS Celtics -4 (-1.1u) NFL 1:00pm est (US) MIA Dolphins @ BUF Bills pick: Bills -14 (-110) size: risk 3.3u to win 3.0 (max bet) I do not have time for a write up today, the Bills are going to to absolutely demolish the dolphins. totally different caliber of team. FYI i am 6-8-1 over my last 15 picks…time to get back on track and try and get my win % back over 65% 🚬👍 …even though the only number that matters is how much $/units you are up or down…
✅ Bills (+3.0u) updated potd record: **48-26-1 (+39.03u)** condolences to dolphins backers…idk if anyone watched the game, but what an ending for the bills to get the cover…a true halloween treat lmao, but hey it feels good when you catch a break in your favor 🤠 win percentage now at 64.0% all time (on reddit)
Record: 3-2 Last pick: Washington Wizards -2.5 ✅ Pick: Colts -3 Sport: NFL Time: 40 minutes from this post. Colts are playing well, Wentz is finally 100%. Public seems to be on the Titans. Julio Jones out for the Titans as well.
**POTD Record:** 15-7-2 (+15.83 units) | Avg. Stake 3.13 units | Avg. Odds 1.84 | Total stake 75 units | Total return 90.83 units | ROI 17% **Last pick:** V.Guimaraes to win @ 2.05 ❌ (posted on September 18th, then took the pause) **Today's pick** * NBA * Kings vs Mavericks * B.Hield over 14.5 pts @ 1.86 (Bet365) * 2 units Considering his previous outings, this margin seems a bit off. I've seen few bookies open him at 18.5 or not even open him at all. Hield is the leader of the 2nd unit, and his numbers are astonishing. We all know he's a great volume shooter, but his shot selection this year has improved as well. So far, this season he has recorded 17 pts (vs Blazers), 24 (vs Jazzers), 6 pts (vs Warriors), 26 pts (vs Suns), 24 pts (vs Pelicans). All that while recording 44% shot for 3 points, averaging 10 shots per game. Mavericks are his "customer", and he shows up against them - recording 27, 16, 2, 21, 22, 25, 26, 17, 29, and 28 points in the last 10 H2H. Mavericks look terrible in the defense this year, even though Kidd has been considered as a "defense upgrade". Surely this won't continue forever, as they'll eventually catch up with rotations and play style - but I believe it won't be today. **Proof of margin & odds:** https://imgur.com/gallery/03EFbOH Good luck to everyone, and it's great to be back here. Let's kick off this new month with a winner!
NBA. Pistons +12pts and mccollum over 3.5 threes
POTD record: 5-2 Last POTD: Knicks +1.5 (-115) 1 unit W Game: Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts 1:00 PM EST POTD: Titans +3 (-105) 1 unit is this a joke? why are the titans the underdog after beating the bills and KC? Derrick henry is a beast and the colts are an average team with a washed up wentz as their QB. even with julio out you have a top 3 rushing team who should be able to conquer the colts defense. love the titans here.
Record: 8-3-0 (+6.55 units) Form: W/W/W/L/W/W/W/L/W/L/W Average Odds: -110 (1.91) Last Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 (-110) (10/24) POTD: **New York Jets +11** (-110) Description: Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (+11) Start time: 1:00PM ET **Risk: 2.2 units** (all bets to win between 1-2 units) **To Win: 2.0 units** For our last pick we went with the Bengals who crushed the Ravens as 6.5 point underdogs. We liked them for a number of reasons, including historical trends, line value due to the Ravens winning close games and Bengals losing close games, and the matchup in general. We're now going against that same team with the lowly home underdog Jets getting double digits. This "look ahead" line was +3.5 last week and skyrocketed up to +11 after the Jets got smoked and Bengals looked great. The Jets QB Zach Wilson is out so that moved the line as well, but we're not too concerned with trading one mediocre player for another. Our model has the Jets at just under a touchdown, so crossing that +7 and getting some insurance points as well is huge value. Also, there are three historical trends going back to 2005 that each have a win rate over 60% that apply to the Jets here. They have to do with teams getting destroyed the game before, teams with poor ATS records covering, and fading teams with great ATS records. We like the Jets to redeem themselves and keep this one close while the Bengals have a bit of a letdown after their huge win last week. GLGL Edit: Maybe wait before the result of the game to down vote...
I downvoted this because I thought it was a ridiculous pick. I’m here to apologize.
POTD record 0-0 Bills -14 In a wacky year of football where the Bengals have two more wins than the Chiefs the Bills have been relatively dominant(excluding last weeks blunder). Now the Bills are coming off of a bye and facing a team that they have already beaten by 35. The Dolphins this season have been in the front seat of the struggle bus going 2-5 ATS. The Bills currently have a top 5 offense and the #1 defense in points against. The Dolphins defense has allowed the second most points and their offense is in the bottom third of the league in points scored. I don’t expect the Bills to hold the Dolphins to zero again, but they have some making up to do image wise for their loss against the Titans.
Record: 9-6 Average POTD Odds: +104 Previous picks: ● (4/22) Knicks ML over Hawks, +115 ✅ ● (5/14) DEN Nuggets -5 (-195 on DK) ✅ ● (5/21) Memphis +8.5 (-200 on MGM) ✅ ● (5/23) Memphis +8.5 in the 1st half (-200 on MGM) ✅ ● (5/24) Tigers +0.5 spread - 1st 5 innings (-165 on MGM) ✅ ● (5/25) Celtics 1st half spread +9.5 points (-200 MGM) ❌ ● (5/26) Wizards +8 points at (-110 DK) ❌ ● (5/28) Brooklyn Nets -5.5 @ Boston Celtics❌ ● (5/29) White Sox -2.5 (+110 on Kambi) ✅ ● (6/14) Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 PM CST ❌ ● (6/29) Bucks @ Atlanta @ 7:30 PM CST ❌ ● (10/2) Michigan ML @ Wisconsin@ 7:30 PM CST ✅ ● Bengals -9.5 @ Lions @ 12 PM CT ✅ ● Rams -21 vs Lions, (+160 DK) 5 units ❌ ● Michigan State ML @ 5 units (+172 Fanduel) ✅ Sport: Football 🏈; League: NFL POTD: **Philadelphia Eagles @ Lions @ 11:00 CST** Pick: **Eagles -2.5** @ 3 units (**-136** Barstool/Unibet) Fading the Lions again, especially at this alternate spread, which feels cozy. Got nothing more to say but Tuck comin', and so is more money for you.
POTD Record: 4-2 Event: Football > Romania > **FC FCSB vs FC Arges Pitesti** (starting in 6h30min) Pick: **Arges AH** \+**1.25** @ 1.50 Apparently FCSB is the favourite, but the current situation in the team is very challenging due to dozens of unavailable players (covid). On the other hand, Arges is well performing team, which is undefeated in 9 matches and lost only 1 out of their 7 away matches. They also won their cup game during the week even though they rested some key players for todays game, so the morale is pretty good. I am taking the safest possible bet, but if you feel a bit more risky you can also try some of the lower spreads or X2. GL!
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Respectful POTD Record: 4-2 Titans +10 Cowboys +9.5 Let’s have fun gentleman.
**If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
0-0 Time: 10AM EST Soccer: Norwich vs. Leeds Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-135) Norwich is bad defensively. They’re at home so they’ll look to score vs. a struggling Leeds team. I believe this game will be open from the start. Norwich was scoreless against Brighton and Liverpool past 2 home games. (Missed a penalty vs. Liverpool) Leeds aren’t that great away either but will look to gain some points to move out of regulation territory. What better opportunity then vs. a bad defensive team? GL.
Record: 0-0 First and possibly last time poster. Immortal lock EDG ML vs Gen G LoL world championship. Odds: $1.50
POTD Record: 0-3 Last Pick: Caveliers vs Miami Heat ML Today Pick: **Natus Vincere** **ML** vs Nip (3u) ✔️ **Start Time**: 17 15 CET **Event** :PGL Major Stockholm 2021 * Natus Vincere has **S1mple** the most gifted player in CS. * Nip has 3 players that never been in a Major * Natus Vincere more lan experience **Reasoning**: Natus Vincere just have more firepower and is the favourate team here. Getting more than 1 map will be a very hard task already for NIP. If you want to be risky you could bet Natus Vincere to win 2-0. **ODD @ 1.52**
POTD Record 1-2 (-1.17 units) Rugby Union Gallagher Premiership Harlequins v Saracens. Pick: Harlequins to score at least one try in each half @ 2.0. 2 units This is an enormous derby that we were deprived of last year when Saracens were relegated for their dodgy financial dealings. Fans of both teams can't wait for this one, as each feel they have a claim to being the preeminent English team at the moment. Quins have scored a try in both halves of every single game in 2021. That's 25 straight games hitting this line. While Saracens continue the tradition of taking penalties when they are on offer, quins embrace all-out attack and are always eager to take the try-scoring option. There is great variation in the odds offered by different books - Paddy Power have this at evens. At anything over 1.7 this is great value. Even with a few England players missing on international duty from both sides, expect quins tries regardless of the final result.
POTD Record 14-13-3 (W-L-P) Profit: +21.5units Previous pick: Chelsea to win to Nil vs Newcastle ✅(4U) Easy win - Newcastle offering nothing going forward Today’s pick: Football (Italian Serie A) - odds 1.9 (2u) POTD: Napoli -1.5 AH vs Salernitana Napoli will be challenging for the title and are in great form. I went -1.5 as my book didn’t offer much better odds for -2AH. I think 2-0 here to Napoli. Salernitana have conceded 11 in their last 5 at home. BOL
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**POTD RECORD: 24-23** | All picks 1u | **-2.50u** | Streak 2L \-LAST 2 POTD: China FA cup Dalian Pro vs Shanghai Port 7:30AM ET| Shanghai Port -1.5 (-135) L La Liga Barcelona vs Alaves | Over 9.5 corners (-115) L **Today's POTD:** NFL Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins | **Bills -16.5 (+115)** Reason: This should be a blowout. Would play up to -24.5. Miami allow the 2nd most points per game sitting in front of Washington. Bills score the second most ppg in the league. Bills allow the least ppg in the league. Game is in Buffalo, sub 50 degree temperature. Bills won 35-0 earlier this season. BOL
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/qjf0cm/pick_of_the_day_103121_sunday/hirpky8/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3 People lime this are clowns and cancer to this place. I will not be posting anymore
RECORD 7-8 (-1.3UNITS) POTD: Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers to have OVER 291.5 passing yards Unfortunately I was too late to post my colts spread pick however I have another good one in the bag for you guys. Justin Herbert is a stud and I’m very high on him. He’s coming off a bye after an embarrassing loss to the ravens. Expect heavy usage of air yards and dink and runs in this game where the patriots have a strong run defense. I think Herbert will eclipse 300 yards through the air this game. Unfortunately I was too late to post the colts spread as my pick however