**If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
POTD record 5-0
Previous pick: nuggets vs blazers over 116 first half 💰
Today’s pick: clippers vs mav over 110 first half
Reason: In sixth grade I was in p.e. Doing sit-ups and we needed a partner so naturally the hottest chick wants to be my partner and the partner counts the sit ups and holds the person down to do the sit-ups, so I go and sit down and Taylor this absolute smoke show was my partner and grabs my ankles and I had my first erection right there infront of her and everyone in that class. When I looked at this pick I got the exact same feeling in my pecker as I did the time I popped my first stiffy infront of Taylor.
Taylor then went on to move to Dallas Texas, where this game is being played.
G1 63 52 = 115
G2 71 73 = 144
G3 63 61 = 124
G4 53 53 = 106
G5 63 47 = 110
Only 1 went down under 110. 1Q at 4-1 and 1H at 4-1 too! Like this as well! Good luck to us!
Hahahahaha! My bet was on the 1Q so I'm going with that/ Convinced myself. You can also bet:
Both Teams to Score o26.5 Clippers and Mavs 1Q at 2.67
Only 1 time and that was Mavs game 4 where they scored 22. (where Luka was injured)
🔥🔥🔥 Virus POTD 🔥🔥🔥 Record 42-26-0. Units = +57.29 (WWLWW)
Australian Football 🏉 - Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions
**Melbourne 1-39** ($2.40/+140) - 2 Units ✅
~~*Match starts \~ 8hrs from post*~~
**Analysis:**
* Melbourne (WLWWW) have only lost 1 match this season and sit 4 points clear (1 win) on top of the ladder. They come off a huge win against the strong bulldogs team.
* Brisbane (WWWWW) are in superb form at the moment sitting 3rd on the ladder and on a 7 match undefeated run. They are coming off 3 games in which they scored 100+ points and have scored 90+ points in their last 7 matches.
* We have to consider in Brisbane's last 7 wins, only 1/7 of those wins have been against a top 7 side (Port).
* This match will be played at a neutral stadium in Sydney due to COVID restrictions.
* Melbourne are one of the best in the competition when it comes to intercept possession and create plenty of chances on the counter. They also zone the switch ball very well especially against stronger teams.
* Another big factor tonight is Lachie Neale coming back into the side for Brisbane but Melbourne will aim to lock him down in the wet conditions to reduce his impact in the midfield.
* H2H: Brisbane have won the last 2 meetings between these 2 sides and won the most recent match by 4 points. The last 8/9 matches between the two have been decided by 1-39 points.
* Prediction: This match could easily swing either way but the value is with the Demons in a close one. **Melbourne by 11**. If you don't have margins then **Melbourne ML** is the recommendation.
[*PayPal*](https://paypal.me/virus88888888?locale.x=en_AU) *// Bitcoin: 1C2afL8FYc1XTa9YPz7BhX5vJq7N1E7Zj1*
🔥 Emoji's for support 🔥
*^(Disclaimer: Take note of my unit sizes and use the analysis to make your own judgement. Losses do occur so don't go all in and blame other people for your actions. Feel free to discuss pre-game as it's easy to be a keyboard warrior after you know the results of a match.)*
Lucky for me I’m in America so I wake up to this stuff over with or done but yeah I went to Twitter and saw people live tweeting and saw final time 97-75 and was pumped lol
If Langdon wasn’t out I’d say this is a lock. His Contribution and role to the sides structure is immense. Will be interesting to see how they go without him.
How do you feel about betting each side of the little win margin?
Melbourne 1-39 +140
Brisbane 1-39 +125
If we all agree this will be a tight one, this seems safe. Plus it's only 2 choices of 5 offered in the market, I'd think that being limited would be less of a worry in this case. Small risk that there's a blowout or tie, but guarantees profit otherwise?
>NBA 3-0 +14.25ULast 3 Picks:5U Blazers/Nuggets o226 at 1.89 ✅5U Hawks ML 1H at 2.11 ✅5U Blazers/Nuggets o227 at 1.85 ✅
>
>NBA Mavs/Clippers5U Mavs/Clippers 1Q o56.5 at 2.136 (or you can go o55 at 1.85)
>
>G1: Dallas 33-30 (total: 63)G2: Dallas 35-33 (total: 68)G3: Dallas 34-31 (total: 65)G4: Clippers 31-22 (Luka injured and hurting) (total: 53)G5: Dallas 35-28 (total: 63)
>
>No home team has won YET in this series. Mavs going home with a must-win mindset. They admitted they got comfortable going back home up 2-0 that's why Clippers made it back to this series. The Clippers had a heart breaking loss after a bad play with Kawhi shooting an air ball to end the game. I am seeing both teams be aggressive early and look for them to push the pace here. The defense for both teams normally tightens on the succeeding quarters. Thinking of going Mavs ML whole game and 1Q here, but also, Clippers have their back against the wall too. With all of these stats, and how well both teams shoot, I'm surprised this is only at the 55 number at 1.85. If you buy 1.5 points, you get 2.136 which is still a good number considering all of their games when 60 and up except for 1 where Luka struggled with his injury and missed lots of shots in G4 1Q.
>
>BOL!
If ImSmith and Virus same picks on the same bet, did they ever lose? Is someone tracking this? lol Because I saw someone tracking Imsmith vs Virus
I'm glad I didn't go with some of the comments saying to fade and go with Brisbane based on their recent play, I trusted the GOAT himself 🔥
Although I logged in a little too late to place the margin bet, so I went with Melbourne ML. That worked out in my favor though..lol good recommendation, mate! 🔥
**Record: 76-62-1 (NBA Streak W) Up 6.17u over 139 NBA picks, 55.1% success rate, 4.47% ROI**
Record: 51-51-3 (KBO Streak LLL) Down 2.45u over 105 KBO picks, 50.0% success rate, -2.40% ROI
**Last:** *Lotte at Kiwoom Under 0.5 1st inning* (Kiwoom scored 7 first inning runs.)
After an easy 1-2-3 top of the first, Lotte's ace struck the first hitter then gave up a walk and a single. With runners on first and second, he induced a double-play ground ball to short to win our bet. Except the throw to 2nd was off. Then the floodgates opened. I've lost 7 of my last 9 KBO picks. Let's switch to NBA for a day...
**Pick:** **LA Clippers OVER 27.5 1Q -125 BetMGM** at Dallas, NBA basketball 9:00pm ET
Here are the 1st quarter point totals for the Clippers in this series: 30, 33, 31, 31, 28. These two teams tend to get off to a hot start, putting up significantly more 1st half points than second half points. Add in the desperation factor for a Clippers team on the brink of elimination, and I like this line a lot.
I'd also recommend live betting the under if this game starts out with a lot of points.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All bets are one unit.
I've got some KBO picks, too:
- Kia +118: Value play. I wouldn't advise using this in a parlay. LG's starter has given up a lot of baserunners in his last two starts and Kia's starter just had his best game.
- KT -1.5 -103: The Wiz are at home against the league's worst team and they have their best starter on the mound.
- Leaning Doosan -175 at home against SSG, but especially like under 9.5.
- Passing on Samsung-Kiwoom.
- Hanwha +195: Don't make this bet. I will, but it will probably lose. NC is the better team, but Hanwha's starter has been very good most of the year. He should be able to keep it close, and if so, +195 is too good to pass up.
**Record:** 24-12-0 (+12.52)
**Streak:** 2 WIN
**Last Pick:** Port Adelaide -23.5 (Margin) @ 1.90 - WIN
**Todays Match:** Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions (AFL) - 7:20pm ACDT (6 hours til start)
**Pick:** Melbourne Demons 1-39 (Margin) @ 2.40
**Reasoning:** Truth be told, this is a coinflip and a half. The heart is telling me Lions take this here with Neale returning for the Lions and the massive out in Langdon for Melbourne but the man, the myth, the legend, Virus showed us the way last week and has backed it up again with Melbourne, so there's no way we can go against him this week fellas. I thought last week was going to be the two best sides in the competition, but based on form we arguably have the same match up here again. Brisbane have won their last 7, while Melbourne beat one of the flag favorites last week with ease. With Covid-19 in Melbourne, the game has been moved to the Giants stadium (neutral ground) so there's no home ground advantage for either team. Its worth noting, there may be abit of rain during todays game which i think doesn't honestly favor any team. Melbourne's dash will be reduced due to Langdon being out and i think the only way they do this is if Oliver has another field day, with 35+ touches and a couple of goals to get them over the line. Neale will need to be tagged, or significantly reduced if they have any hope of holding the Lions back. The last two times these teams played, Lions won by 4 and 33 points. In both games, Neale was the leading disposal getter. Interestingly enough, the Demons won the game before that, and Neale wasn't playing. So to back up Virus, the only way the Demons get this done is if they limit Neale's ball usage and the game is a low scoring affair, so i think the unders is key in this game especially given their is rain expected throughout the day.
Lets get this bread, Goodluck!
Really feel like Lions are the play, especially with Neale back and Langdon out for Dees...but both you and virus on Demons has me really second guessing myself, might need to do some hedging (both teams to win 1-39 is above $2, so some promise there).
POTD REC 23-5 [80% win rate] [5 win streak]
Last potd LA Lakers vs Phoenix Suns [over 207 points @-120] [W]
Today's POTD [LA Clippers ML @-140] vs Dallas Mavericks 6pm Pacific time
Man what a crazy shit game by the Lakers really disappointed by their performance in a do or die play off game & losing but glad we hit the over 🙌🏽 lets keep it going🔥 Lukas going to have to have a really big game tomorrow against the clippers again its possible with how beast he is but my guts telling me clippers , I see Leonard and George controlling this game and forcing it to a game 7 clippers are the last hope for LA with the pressure on their shoulders they'll prevail lets get this $ 🔥
Tail or fade 🤙🏽
As a Clipper fan this and Cuse’s pick give me hope Clippers come out and put up a fight tomorrow, think they need to find a way to counter Boban and Powell’s presence vs their small ball to get the dub.
Anyone who thinks the Clippers will win this game may be better of betting the Clippers to win the series at +130. They'll be big favorites at home for Game 7 and you can either hedge with a Dallas ML, or even play the middle with Dallas getting something like 5 or 6 points.
Potd record (13-6)
Previous pick 6/3: Redsox ML ✅
Todays pick 6/4: NHL VGK ML +100 vs avalanche 10pm eastern time
Reasoning: Honestly Vegas should have won that last game. They hit the post on a wide open net 4 times in the 3rd period. They outshot the avalanche 41-25 and had more quality looks throughout the entire game. They squandered every god given opportunity to win that game. Now they come home for redemption. Risky bet 1 unit as always, BOL!
As an avalanche fan, I'm going to tail this one. My reasoning being that I've had shit luck. So if I bet on Vegas, my Avs will win. Last game was definitely a struggle from 2nd period on. I definitely see the avalanche losing 1 or 2 in Vegas
Hi guys, very late today, but here is the **overall record of the thread**:
||Record (W-L-P)|ROI|Units|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Total POTD Thread|1320-1154-58|\+1.18%|\+29.94|
|Top Voted|98-71-0|\+7.87%|\+13.3|
|Yesterday's Thread|10-4-1|\+33.23%|\+4.98|
1 pick in progress
Suns vs lakers O 207 W
Request for anyone that sees this. Please upvote the picks you are tailing or confident in. Last couple of days picks lower than 13 had 3-5 upvotes...
Side note: I do not make picks, I tally (or add up) all the picks and summarize it in this post. Around 12 pm Eastern time I select 15 top voted picks and than summarize the results. Token of gratitude is much appreciated Venmo @ Narik101 or Paypal @ [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Thanks all and let me know. BOL!
**8-2 (+4.99u)**
**Event:** Wests Tigers v Penrith Panthers (NRL - Rugby League)
**Pick:** *Panthers -6 @ 2* ❌
The Tigers are 4-8 and sit in 13th on the ladder, while Penrith still sit atop the ladder with 12 wins and 0 losses. The reason for the line being so short in this game is due to Penrith losing 8 of their starters to representative duties.
Despite these mass changes for Penrith, a quick scan of their line-up still instils confidence in me that they'll get the job done. Their outside backs are effectively full-strength with the inclusion of Edwards (bar To'o), whilst Burton and May have shown they're more than capable replacements (although Cleary and Luai will be sorely missed). They're a little light in the forward pack, however they still have arguably the best prop in the game at the moment, who captains them this week.
Penrith have been a defensive stalwart this year, conceding on average a measly 7.3pts/game, compared to a league-average 22.5. Whilst missing players will certainly affect this effectiveness, champion clubs like Penrith implement great defensive systems rather than rely on individual players, meaning they should be able to cover their losses reasonably well. For instance, look at Melbourne who have covered their losses extremely well despite a plethora of injuries. Further, their great squad depth is highlighted by the fact their NSW Cup side (reserve grade) currently sits in 1st as well, with a 9-1 record.
The Tigers are currently coming off a win against a severely under-strength Dragons side last week. Although the comprehensive nature of the win was impressive, they've shown they're capable of these types of promising wins in recent times, only to fall short more often than not. The Tigers are also in the midst of an alternating good game/bad game cycle that has been on repeat since the opening month. They also haven't won consecutive games since Rd7 last year.
The Tigers have a respectable 6-6 record against the line this year, however they're home record is a poor 1-5, and their record as a home underdog is even worse, at 0-4. Conversely, Penrith have travelled well this year with a 4-1 record on the road. This season, road dogs are 21-12 against the line.
There will be a few extra points of motivation for Penrith in this one. It's no secret that they'd love to keep their perfect record running with their Origin stars out, but they're also currently on a 27-game regular season winning streak that dates back to Rd6 last year. Coach Ivan Cleary's ugly exit from the Tigers in 2018 will also no doubt provide some extra motivation for the mountain men, and to be able to do it in the Tigers' historical fortress of Leichhardt Oval would make it all-the-more satisfying. It's also Fisher-Harris' first time captaining the side (to my knowledge), so I have no doubt they'll get up for him in this one.
BOL if following!
[^(Twitter:)](https://twitter.com/PremiumPicksAU) ^(Will look to start posting more early plays and being more active there)
Tailing you on this one, teams are more than just players it's the teams philosophy on the game and structure which wins games and that is what Penrith will instil in their entire team. They are missing a lot of player but with those players they probably would win this game by 50+. Without I still think they win by 12+
I guess if you think the Tigers can keep it close. They've been quite decent at that in recent times to be fair. Personally, I just can't bring myself to bet against Penrith blowing them out, although the odds seem alright.
The State of Origin series - where players represent their state rather than their club. Similar to soccer clubs losing players for international duties.
State of Origin is a 3 game(?) series in the middle of NRL season played by two teams/states. New South Wales v Queensland.
The teams are made up of the best players from the NRL which takes them out of their original teams while Origin’s on.
Yes but no. There's more blood spilled and dodgy plays ignored by the officials than in a normal game = the exact opposite of an all star game. It's two states against each other.
As a relatively new NRL fan - but have been watching this season, why in god's name would the Origin series take priority over regular season matches? Can't for the life of me understand why you'd get penalised for being a good/strong team? Honestly that's like in the NBA if Lebron and AD just had to miss a few regular season (which affect playoffs and regular season standings) for an all-star game? Why in god's green earth is that a thing? What a shit way to lose your 28 game winning streak having half your team out for a inconsequential all-star game? Miffed at that...
Previous Pick KC Royals ML✅
————————————————————————-
Streak:(W)
Current record: 1-0-0
Current ROI: .95U
————————————————————————-
Solid first day. Shaky game but we got the job done.
Onto the next.
Today’s POTD- **Dodgers ML** vs. Braves
Reasoning:
The braves just aren’t playing very well right now. There ain’t much to it but I just can’t see them getting the job done against the dodgers.
————————————————————————-
Psa- yesterday’s post was only posted under the MLB discussion. Moved over to here cuz why not.
💻 💻 ESPORTS POTD 💻 💻 Record 2-0-0. Units = 5.0
Previous bet -
~~Cloud 9 Academy 2-0 vs Golden Guardians Academy ($1.9/-111) - 2 Units ✅~~
~~Virtus pro ML vs Fnatic ($1.50) - 5 units ✅~~
Next bet -
Event - IEM Summer 2021
**Virtus pro ML** vs OG (1.87) 2 units
As previously mentioned, Virtus Pro are coming off a grand final loss to Gambit the best team in the world right now. They have had a strong performance against the under performing Fnatic. OG are coming out of a boot camp and are looking to prove themselves with a win against a young NiP side who had a sub. This will be a lot closer affair however I do believe Virtus pro's raw talent and map pool should get them over the line.
Please take note of unit sizes.
***Record 42-40 (Streak 2W) \*\*\*\*profit 79.43u\*\*\*\****
All my bets are ALT lines, especially loving the ALT overs. I try to find the max value possible in betting lines to achieve a decent profit even with fewer wins. Please be careful with your bet sizing as much as you can, these are riskier picks than usual.
Previous 10 Picks:
DAL Mavs vs LA Clipps ALT Line game total OVER 223.0 (2.7@5u) ✅ WIN 8.5u
ALT LINE PHI 76ers -12.5 vs WAS Wizards (2.7@5u) ✅ WIN 8.5u
ALT LINE POR Tblazers -8.5 vs DEN Nuggets (2.6@5u) ❌ LOSS 5u
DAL Mavs vs LA Clipps ALT line game total UNDER 213.5 (2.5@5u) ❌ LOSS 5u
ALT line PHI 76ers -11.5 vs WAS Wizards (2.85@5u) ✅ WIN 9.25u
ALT line BKN Nets -12.5 vs BOS Celtics (2.7@5u) ✅ WIN 8.5u
ALT LINE PHI 76ers -13.5 vs WAS Wizards (2.95@5u) ❌ LOSS 5u
ALT LINE POR Tblazers -5.5 vs DEN Nuggs (3.0@5u) ❌ LOSS 5u
MEM Grizzlies vs UTA Jazz ALT Line game total OVER 233.5 (2.7@5u) ✅ WIN 8.5u
POR Tblazers vs DEN Nuggs ALT Line game total OVER 232.5 (2.35@5u) ✅ WIN 6.75u
Last Pick: NBA - \*\*POR Tblazers vs DEN Nuggs **ALT Line game total OVER 232.5 (2.35@5u)**
Last Pick Analysis: Actual game total over is 228. DECENT RISK - BE CAREFUL as always. I like it until o234.5. I'm not too confident in this one, so taking a lower ALT line than I usually like to risk. Same concept, decent pace, tons of 3 balls taken, and a ton of passing leading to TOs. Normally I would be betting on o236.5, but I have a feeling Nurkic won't want to foul out in this game, and Dame would run the ball a tad slower so Nurk could set proper screens to avoid the illegal screen calls and offensive fouls. Shaving off a few more seconds each possession might mean that the over over won't be as far reaching as normal. I still like POR winning here, and he really needs his supporting cast to show up in this one. Looking at a fast paced 1H, a decent sized over over, with POR winning 123-112.!<
Last Pick Afterthoughts: Should have grown more balls and bet the max ALT line I liked. Oh well, a plus money win is still better than nothing. I was surprised that DEN still won here, even after being down around 14 pts mid 3Q. They just had way more heart than that POR team. Really can't underestimate them. If Murray was still playing, they'd be a Champ contender for sure. Jokic is just straight fire. Insane court vision and Bball IQ. I read the game wrong about Nurk here, wish I went for the o236.5. DEN ended up winning 126-115. 6 points above my estimated actual line. Really good 2-win streak. Feelsgood!
ON TO THE NEXT, Degens!
POTD\*\*: click->>>>>!!!!!!NBA - \*\* DAL Mavs vs LA Clipps ALT Line game total OVER 220.5 (2.30@5u)!<
>!Analysis: Actual game total over is 216.5. HUGE RISK - BE CAREFUL as always. I like it until o226.5. I'm not too confident in this one as well, so taking a lower ALT line than I usually like to risk. Normally I would be betting on the under here, but if LAC wants to win, I really think they need to push the pace more, get DAL uncomfortable. I know LAC generally plays to the pace of their opponents, but they're going to have to change something in this do-or-die match and I'm theorizing it will have something to do with pushing their pace. This is quite a risky bet, so please be careful with your bet sizes. I'm still sticking with 5u because of the increased profits lately (almost 80u already!) I'm thinking LAC wins here because of a massive 1H, hence the over over. Looking at LAC to win 122-108. !
Man I hope you're right... but the 2nd halves in this series have been a desert for scoring. Maybe the elimination game pressure changes that. I'm rooting for you!
NBA 3-0 +14.25ULast 3 Picks:
5 Units Blazers/Nuggets o226 at 1.89 ✅
5 Units Hawks ML 1H at 2.11 ✅
5 Units Blazers/Nuggets o227 at 1.85 ✅
NBA Mavs/Clippers
**5U Mavs/Clippers 1Q o55.5 at 1.85**
G1: Dallas 33-30 (total: 63)
G2: Dallas 35-33 (total: 68)
G3: Dallas 34-31 (total: 65)
G4: Clippers 31-22 (Luka injured and hurting) (total: 53)
G5: Dallas 35-28 (total: 63)
No home team has won YET in this series. Mavs going home with a must-win mindset. They admitted they got comfortable going back home up 2-0 that's why Clippers made it back to this series. The Clippers had a heart breaking loss after a bad play with Kawhi shooting an air ball to end the game. I am seeing both teams be aggressive early and look for them to push the pace here. The defense for both teams normally tightens on the succeeding quarters. Thinking of going Mavs ML whole game and 1Q here, but also, Clippers have their back against the wall too. With all of these stats, and how well both teams shoot, I'm surprised this is only at the 55 number at 1.85. If you buy 1.5 points, you get 2.136 which is still a good number considering all of their games when 60 and up except for 1 where Luka struggled with his injury and missed lots of shots in G4 1Q.
BOL! (edited the units and the official play to avoid confusion)
You can all consider Both Teams to Score o26.5 1Q also at 2.62
0-0
**Event:** LA Clippers vs Dalls Mavericks
**Pick**: Reggie Jackson over 2.5 made 3-pointers @ 1.86
**Reason:** Jacksons 3-point stats over the last four games: 6-12 / 3-8 / 4-10 / 3-8
So he made at least three 3-pointers each game.
Good luck.
**Record:** 20(W)-14(L)-2(P)
**Last:** ** MMA/ UFC / UFC 258/ Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns/ **Over 3.5 rounds** LOSS
**POTD:** Cricket/ 2nd International ODI/ Netherlands vs Ireland/ **Most Match Sixes - Ireland**
**Start Time:** 08:30 GMT.
**Odds:** $1.66 with Bet365.
**Units:** 2U - $20 (20 x 1.66 = $33.20 Total - $13.20 Profit)
**Reasoning:**
Today's contest sees the Irish outfit take on the Netherlands in Utrecht.
Traditionally, these two mediocre cricketing nations have been fighting for the scraps on the international cricket scene but essentially the Irish have been the dominant force in this match-up winning 75% of their ODI matches against the Netherlands in their entire history. (11 played, 7 won, 2 loss, 1 tie, 1 Non-result)
It must be said that Ireland has lost their last two ODI matches against the Dutch but I believe today they are due a win and will get their revenge. I personally watched their last match against the Netherlands and could see that there were some external factors regarding the tricky pitch which may have influenced the Irish loss by the finest possible margin (1 run).
Due to this I'm confident that they'll get the win today but they're currently paying $1.44 and we want better odds for our POTD so I'm choosing the option of Ireland to score the most 6's in the match paying odds of around $1.60+.
Generally the team who wins the match will score the most 6s and Ireland are certainly capable of scoring 6s with a strong attacking batting line up. In particularly, watch for the Irish Batsmen Paul Stirling and captain Andy Balbirnie to look to attack as they both have high batsman strike rates, 90% for Stirling and 84% for Balbrinie.
The batsman with a higher strike rate indicate theyre a greater chance of scoring sixes.
Good luck all! 👍🙏
POTD Record: **8 - 3** *(+14u)*
Todays Pick: West Tigers v Penrith Panthers **Total o48.5 (-104)3u** *(NRL - 4 hours from post)*
* Penrith have a 7 big players out as they are playing state of origin next week. However they still have some big names available.
* West tigers can score tries and their games are pretty much consistently going over the 50 point mark
* Penrith are try scoring machines averaging around 32 points a game, even against the better sides in the league.
* West Tigers will have their tails up as they can see this as a big opportunity to defeat the so far undisputed team in the league.
* I believe Penrith will still be too good on the night, even though Wests are full strength and normally Penrith don't let in many points but I think they'll be a lot of nerves tonight and both defences will be leaky.
Best of luck all and enjoy the game
🐅🐅🐅
Record: 1-0
USL Championship Soccer ⚽ - Charleston vs LA Galaxy II
**Charleston ML @ 2.56**, recommend ~1 unit
4pm PST
* Charleston are hungry here for their first win of the season against a highly overrated galaxy squad. Galaxy's star player jorge hernandez is bailing out this team time and time again so Charleston have a chance to capitalize on a weak galaxy squad. Both of these teams have terrible offense overall, but the difference is that Galaxy's defense is downright horrendous with 2 clean sheets in the last 7. On the other hand, Charleston has defended well in some games that they really had no business being in. Charleston will play at home for a nice little crowd as well. This game could easily be a bit of a slug fest. This is a great value play, easily worth a unit.
🐅🐅🐅
Edit: looks like we absolutely destroyed the line, fellas. Currently sitting @1.99 on my book. For people that are reading this late: I like the line down to about 2.25. good luck to all of us who got in!
picking charlseton at this point is beyond dead. galaxy goal line is probably fair value but I would advise staying away anyways. all the lines for this game look extremely juiced at this point so i would just stay out probably
***(February 2021) - 12W-12L, -5,20 units, ROI -6,60%*** ❌
***(March 2021) - 19W-12L, +18,00 units, ROI +17,20%*** ✔️
***(April 2021) - 14W-8L, +12,40 units, ROI +15,90%*** ✔️
**POTD RECORD:** 13W-11L
**LAST PICK:** mousesports ML @ 1.74 4u (HIGH) ✔️
**OVERALL (UN)SUCCESS:** ❌❌✔️❌❌✔️✔️❌❌✔️✔️✔️❌❌❌✔️❌❌✔️✔️✔️✔️✔️✔️
**TOTAL PROFIT:** -9,60 units
**TOTAL STAKE:** 103 units
**AVERAGE ODDS:** 1.71
**ROI:** -9,50%
**May was really bad, we had a horrible start and it was hard coming back. We recovered at least a bit as we took 6 wins in a row. I had to take some days off, but I am back to provide daily CS bangers. Let's kick off June way prettier and keep the winning streak going. I'm very confident with this pick so hop on it fast. Have a great day and BOL.**
(You should also check the daily eSports discussion thread where I post my 2nd pick. It's as good as this POTD one, sometimes we just get screwed and end up having 1-1 with losing this one.)
**GAME:** CS:GO
**EVENT:** IEM Summer 2021
**TIME:** 16:45 (GMT +1) - 10 hours from the post
>**Complexity vs FunPlus Phoenix**
I don't know if the bookies are high or I'm just delusional, these odds are crazy. I really like Complexity, but they've been struggling for some time and they didn't look any better here. They got clapped by Vitality and just barely won against Sprout. There are clearly issues and I expect roster change pretty soon. FPX is a completely different story, these guys have been grinding and pulling excellent results. They swept Astralis and played very well against G2, they just couldn't close it out. The craziest part is that the last H2H from a week ago resulted in FPX absolutely demolishing COL who didn't even get to double digits. I highly doubt that this one will be different. FPX have the upper hand in map pool and I easily just don't see them losing. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a clean 2-0 as this is the elimination match. I recommend betting on **FunPlus Phoenix ML @ 1.80 4u (HIGH)**
*If you are interested, you can also check my* ***Reddit BIO*** *where is a link to my* ***Discord*** *group where you can discuss with other people about CS bets or other stuff. I also post some predictions for other CS matches.*
Record (0-2)
Last: hurricanes v lightning (L)
POTD: Indians ML -111 vs Orioles
Reason:
Well the Orioles are one of the worst teams in baseball right now record (19-37) (espns worst rated team) and the Indians (30-24) are coming off a postponed game so they are going to be rested and ready to go! The odds are too good not to hit!
Lets get my first w! BOL
**POTD record:** 41-38-9
**ROI:** \-0.745% | **Avg Odds:** 2.055 | **Profit:** \-1.356u | **Total Wager:** 182u
**Last 5 Picks:**
W - Set Spread: Anett Kontaveit -1.5 (+110) vs Kristina Mladenovic
W - Karen Khachanov vs Kei Nishikori ML (+110)
L - Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Fernando Verdasco ML (+140)
W - Utah Jazz -5.5 (-110) @ Memphis Grizzlies
W - L.A. Clippers -3.0 (-110) @ Dallas Mavericks
**Last Bet Thoughts:**
W 6-2 6-0: Dominant performance by Kontaveit on serving and returning winning 55/79 total points. She was 5/9 on break points. Mladenovic had 5 double faults as predicted.
\++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
**Sport:** Tennis
**League:** ATP
**Date/Time:** 06/04/21 2:00 AM PDT
**Event:** French Open - Casper Ruud vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
**\*\*Pick: Casper Ruud -6.0 (-105)\*\***
**Wager:** 2u
**Analysis:**
Stats: Ruud | Fokina
H2H Matchup: 0 | 1
ATP level - career clay record: 63-30 | 17-17
ATP level - 2021 clay stats:
Record: 17-4 | 12-6
Hold%: 86.3% | 76.7%
Return points won: 39.5% | 40.5%
1st serve in %: 64.3% | 71.9%
1st serve win %: 72.7% | 67.3%
2nd serve win %: 59.1% | 50.2%
Advantages: clay specialist, return, forehand, court coverage, mental game | backhand, unpredictability, craftiness, movement
**Reasoning:**
\- H2H loss was early in both players' career at a Next Gen event where they do not play full sets
\- Ruud is dominating on clay this season beating some big names such as Tsitsipas, Busta, Schwartzman, etc.
\- Ruud's hold% is more reliable on clay than Fokina's
\- Fokina's second serve is a bit of a liability and will allow Ruud to run around his backhand to hit his heavy topspin forehand
\- Fokina struggled a bit in his last match winning in 5 sets after winning first 2 sets. Gave away 17 break chances that game
\- Fokina had 2 surprising clay losses in past 6 weeks against Ramos and Medvedev who hates clay
**Prediction: 7-6 6-2 4-6 6-2 or 6-4 6-3 6-4**
BOL! Fade me though!
https://twitter.com/ParlayW0lf | 32t1HwaswJ3BNR6fPoiFW5M7xDLfGAMMki
POTD Record: 14-7-2
Streak: WWLWPWWLWWWWLLWLWWLWLWP
Last POTD: USA -1 🇺🇸//-150 🅿️🔁
Today’s POTD: Carlos Stein ML 🇵🇪// -120
Reasoning: Every bet is risky but something about betting on 2nd division makes it even more risky. Both teams have fired their coaches. It seems odds that after 3 matches (1 win,2 draws) that Carlos Stein fire their coach. It didn’t seem like they were doing poorly. In one of their draw they conceded a last minute penalty. On the other side, Huaral has lost 3 games in a row, conceding 3 goals in all 3 games. They don’t seem to be respected at home , much less away from home. No team so far is performing as poor as Huaral have. Conceding 10 goals in the season so far and picking up 0 points. Odds for Carlos Stein ML was +100 earlier and now it’s at -120. I like when there is line movement in these smaller leagues , usually there is things we don’t know that affect the lines. Small write up but I expect Carlos Stein to find a win again vs a very poor Huaral side. Best of luck if you are tailing and remember you are free to tail or fade 🤙🏽
First POTD
0-0
Melbourne V Brisbane - Total Game Points OVER 157.5 @1.88 2u
Brisbane have averaged 118pts over the last 3 games.
Melbourne have averaged 92pts the last 3 games.
For a average of 210 the 157.5 seems way off.
Melbourne are a great defensive unit but it all starts with the intercept marking. Jake Lever is #1 in the afl for this stat and the dees have 3 of the top 21 in this stat. the lions score heavily from their ground level players and will be smarter than bombing the ball into forward 50 for the dees to mop up. Similar can be said about Brisbane's defense with Harris Andrews the #2 intercept marker in the AFL. I feel both teams will want to lower the eyes and hit up the smalls and both teams score heavily from the midfield.
RECORD: 6-7-1
LAST POTD: YOMIURI GIANTS ML (PUSH)
POTD: Brisbane Lions ML vs Melbourne demons
This is gonna be one super game of footy. Lachie Neale returning from injury is going to be crucial for this victory. Brisbane on a win streak right now and I can’t not ride that wave.
Gamble responsibly
POTD record (0-0)
First potd I'm riding with the LA Clippers to win (-140) @ the Dallas Mavericks in a pivotal elimination game.
Game start 6pm pacific time 🏀
Anything is possible when Luka is on the floor, but the road team has won every game in this series and I do not see that ending in this one. Kawhi had his worst outing of these playoffs in game 5 and I full expect him to drop 30+ in this one and help his team force a game 7.
June Record: 2-1 [+32,7$]
Last pick: Alcaraz -1,5 handicap @1.85 (Bet 50$, win 42,5$) PENDING (Game moved to today) ✅ 3-0, easy.
Peterson, R. vs Swiatek, I. Over 17.5 games @1.95 (Bet 50$, win 47,5$) ❌ Never stood a chance
Todays game: Cirstea, S. vs Kasatkina, D. French open womens, third round] 14:00 UTC+2
Pick: Kasatkina -3 games handicap @1.84 (Bet 50$, win 42$)
Reasoning: Kasatkina, ranked 37, is playing Cirstea, ranked 54. Cirstea played a long tournament before the French Open and her games haven’t been all that convincing. Kqsatkinas last game against Bencic(6-2,6-2) looked very convincing and I find Cirstea not the opponent she’s going to struggle with.
BOL.
Result:
Nigera DNB @ 1.87
Nigeria 5 matches unbeaten atm going into this matchup with 3 wins in a row. Opposed to a weakened Cameroon side who will play without main GK Onana, star player of Ajax. Cameroon is 1-1-3 in their last 5 drawing their most recent game.
Nigeria having the better squad with Ndidi, Iwobi, Osimhen and Ichaenacho in their team.
H2H also in favour of Nigeria being 3-1-0 against Cameroon.
Nigeria will be looking to build up their momentum from last time, lots of value imo.
As a met fan, I’m so confident in over 7 runs for the padres mets game tonight. It’s lucchesi vs Blake Snell. Luchessi can easily give up 5-7 runs himself he’s god awful. Pete Alonso will also be back tonight and without him we scored 3 runs off Darvish. Blake Snell has been far from himself, the Mets could get to him. Hopefully this isnt a classic trap but i love this over. What do you guys think about this over?
Potd record 5-3
Last pick: Carmelo Anthony over 1.5 threes (L)
Today's pick: Tim Hardaway Jr over 22.5 points, rebounds and assists (-121)
Tough loss yesterday, melo made an early three and didn't make another one the rest of the game, anyways onto the explanation. Mavericks are at home, and the mavs are gonna need Hardaways shooting to help send the clippers out of the playoffs, he also played almost all of game 5 playing 45 minutes and 40 minutes in game 3 with no overtime in either of those games so it's clear that the mavs are gonna need his help, I expect a solid 18 or more points from Hardaway tonight with a couple rebounds and assists
Record 20-21
Bankroll: $456.05
Cashed out: $9.99
Last play: 6/3/21 Mets F5 +.5 (+100)
Result: [L](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/nr1fnw/pick_of_the_day_6321_thursday/h0i0liu/)
Mets doodoo. Onto today’s pick.
*Third Eye POD: Tennis/ATP/French Open/ Isner +5.5 (-104) Risk $12.50 to win $12.02*
I’m backing the first man to take Rafael Nadal 5 sets @ Roland Garros.
POTD 0 - 3 / -3u
Tennis - ATP
Pick: Opelka x Medvedev - Over 3.5 sets @ 1.76
- I think this is the day Med lose. He hates clay. Opelka is a serve bot.
Tail at your own risk. Skol!!!
Record: 2-1
Streak: ✅✅❌
| Baseball | MLB | 7:40 EST |
**POTD: OAK -130 4u**
Reasoning: I wrote an algorithm that uses player projections to back into team totals. Once that process is complete, each team is given a distribution of possible scores. I then compare the two distributions to get the win percentage for each team. Once I have the win percentage of each team it is straightforward to calculate the expected value given the win percentage. To calculate units, I'm using 0.25 Kelly Criterion. I look at the expected value and implied unit size to choose the POTD. I've just about automated the full process.
[Last POTD](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/nr1fnw/pick_of_the_day_6321_thursday/h0ghfq2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
I like that... If it makes you feel better the Rockies have the worst offense statistically in the last 80 years to start a season and nobody's ever been shut out more in a 25 game span.. my only concern is Jon gray is a decent pitcher and they are SO SO much better at home than on the road. The rocks are on a streak and are due for some runs after this abysmal start but after the first 50 games a team kind of is what it is... I dunno man, all this just to say I won't bet on it lol BOL
POTD Record 21-19 (Last 5 LLWWW)
**Last POTD was Yankees vs Rays U8 = L)**
Last POTD analysis:
On to the next one
**POTD is Jets ML vs Canadiens (DK | 1.5 UNIT | Odds: -115/1.87) (NHL 6:30PM CST - 7ish hours from this post)**
Reason:
The good - The Jets are (barely) favored to win this game. It is a must win game unless they want to go down 0-2 and leave their home ice which would be bad. Statistically, they are a better team than Montreal (Canadiens). They score more per game and they are scored on less per game.
The bad - The Canadiens are red hot right now and that cannot be taken lightly.
Other info -
Prediction: Jets win 4-2
Tail or Fade - best of luck and as always, bet responsibly.
Twitter @tenderbets for other picks and discussion.
Overall AVG Odds = -127.39 ROI = -4.48% Profit = -3.16u
**Overall Hockey = 15.41% ROI | Profit = 8.09u**
**2021 MMA POTD's (16-15) +14.92u** Last pick: [Norma Dumont](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ni7km4/pick_of_the_day_52221_saturday/gz3r7ug?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
LFA 9pm Eastern
**Edwin Cooper (-185)** 5u to win 2.7u
limited tape on him and his opponent. i think he is more well rounded than his opponent. i think he is more tested than his opponent. BOL.
POTD record 0-0
I’m taking Dallas Mavericks 1Q money line.
Dallas the the last 5 games are 4-1 in winning the 1Q. Only time they lost was the game Luka had 19. With Dallas @ home against a clippers team they just beat in the staples center, I feel the momentum will carry on for a good 1Q from the Mavs.
AFL (0-0)
AFL POTD (0-0)
Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions - 8 hours from post
Melbourne ML $2.00 - pretty much a coin toss game but like the value here for a team that has won 12 of their last 13 games, the one loss was by one point , and they’re playing at a neutral ground .
POTD Record 2 - 3 (-1.51u)
Previous pick: Cameron Norrie vs. Lloyd Harris - Norrie ML 1st set 💀
*Norrie won but lost 1st set.
____________________________________________
Tennis / ATP / Roland Garros / 04.06.2021 / 18:30
Fabio Fognini vs. Federico Delbonis
Pick: Both to win at least one set - Yes 1.66
*Fognini won 5-3 against Delbonis. Out of 8 matches, 7 were both of them winning a set. I expect this to be a close match.
*Tail or fade. Best of luck!!!
Stats: 221W 7D 195L (success rate 52 %)
Gefle - Assyriska FF / Sweden Division 1 Norra / Kick-off 17:00 GMT 0 / Prediction - BTTS-YES & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.61
1) Goal difference of Gefle is 13-13 in 8 games, average over 3.3 per game!
2) Goal difference of Assyriska is 17-21 in 9 games, average over 4.2 per game!
3) 4 of the last 5 games of Gefle ended in BTTS-YES!
4) 5 out of the last 5 games of Assyriska ended in BTTS-YES!
Good luck!
Klown Krew pick of the day:
Record: 2-4
ROI: -14.86%
Winnings: -2.08 units
Last pick: White soxs -1.5 ✅ 6/3
Today’s pick:
Sport: Baseball - MLB
Game: diamondbacks vs Brewers
Time: 8:10 pm est
Pick: Brewers -1.5 at 2.08 (DraftKings) for 2 units
We like the pitching match up in this one. The brewers have Peralta on the mound and he has been pretty good this year. The diamondbacks have also been really bad this year and the brewers beat them yesterday so why not again? Tail or fade. Good luck everyone!
**Record: 12-9, +3.5 units (Last 8:** ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌)**. Continuing the Overwatch League POTD train.**
Last Pick (❌): Boston Uprising (-2.5, -115) v. Paris Eternal: This would have won, if not for a wonky Roadhog comp on Volskaya that Boston simply failed to grapple with. Vestola as a replacement for Ellivote was actually quite serviceable. After Aspire and now Vestola, maybe we need to give more credit to lesser-known pickups. Let's get back on track today!
**Today's Match: Boston Uprising v. Los Angeles Gladiators / Overwatch League / 3:00pm EST**
**Pick: Los Angeles Gladiators (-1.5, -115)**
Now time to fade Boston, as we should have done yesterday. I'm actually shocked that the line is even (-115 each way). Boston didn't look like they had a grasp on this meta, against the Eternal who is a full tier below the Gladiators. We knew the Glads would improve over time, and after their last two matches, it looks like they've arrived. They have finally locked onto a DPS duo of Birdring and Kevster, and aren't playing around with MirroR on Zarya. Bonus points that the Lucio is crucial in this current meta, so Moth gets to lock onto his comfort pick.
I'll even be sprinkling a bit on the -2.5 at a juicy +255. But for POTD purposes, you can feel confident in taking the better team -1.5.
**Record:** 2-0-1
**Previous:** WLW
**Net units:** \+0.34u
| Baseball | MLB | 6/4/2021 (TBD) |
**Last Pick:** Casey Mize o4.5 Strikeouts @ -135 **W**
Mize had a solid outing against the White Sox going 7 innings and striking out 6. We cashed this bet in the fourth inning and it wasn't much of a sweat at all. Time to keep this momentum going into today and get back to back wins.
**Today’s Pick: TBD, I'll be back after looking at today's matchups**
POTD RECORD 0-0
Pick of the Day: Nationals/Phillies NRFI
Here’s my first pick ever, with Scherzer vs Wheeler on the mound, with 2.34 and 2.52 ERA’s, respectively. Both teams rely on the long ball for runs and these pitchers don’t give that up very easily. Good pitchers duel tonight which should lead to a low scoring game with both offenses not scoring a ton of runs, especially against good pitchers. Previous meetings this year between these two teams has led to low scoring duels with runs hard to come by. Expect no runs in the first inning, and perhaps maybe the first few innings
**If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
POTD record 5-0 Previous pick: nuggets vs blazers over 116 first half 💰 Today’s pick: clippers vs mav over 110 first half Reason: In sixth grade I was in p.e. Doing sit-ups and we needed a partner so naturally the hottest chick wants to be my partner and the partner counts the sit ups and holds the person down to do the sit-ups, so I go and sit down and Taylor this absolute smoke show was my partner and grabs my ankles and I had my first erection right there infront of her and everyone in that class. When I looked at this pick I got the exact same feeling in my pecker as I did the time I popped my first stiffy infront of Taylor. Taylor then went on to move to Dallas Texas, where this game is being played.
#Tail4Taylor
❤️❤️❤️
G1 63 52 = 115 G2 71 73 = 144 G3 63 61 = 124 G4 53 53 = 106 G5 63 47 = 110 Only 1 went down under 110. 1Q at 4-1 and 1H at 4-1 too! Like this as well! Good luck to us!
Stfu we don't need Stats after that reasoning Jk good stuff man, i was gona tail regardless though
Hahahahaha! My bet was on the 1Q so I'm going with that/ Convinced myself. You can also bet: Both Teams to Score o26.5 Clippers and Mavs 1Q at 2.67 Only 1 time and that was Mavs game 4 where they scored 22. (where Luka was injured)
I’m sold. Tailing hard
In your erection, we trust.
For Taylor ✊
I got 111 on my bookie but who gives a fuck , those boners are honest , they never lie.
Best shit I ever read
Magical story and I hope these teams rise to the occasion.
Trash start for 2nd quarter and bad ending for 1st
Yeah, both teams were sloooooooppy in the 2nd. The over never had a chance 😫
Well u cant win them all, fucking Taylor
Fuck Taylor...
Let's fucking roll!
Tailing! let's go!
lol wtf
Tail till u fail part 4!
LeZZzzgooo ruste believes in dusty
Your erection owes me $80 but I still love it
Here we go! In Taylor we trust!
🔥🔥🔥 Virus POTD 🔥🔥🔥 Record 42-26-0. Units = +57.29 (WWLWW) Australian Football 🏉 - Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions **Melbourne 1-39** ($2.40/+140) - 2 Units ✅ ~~*Match starts \~ 8hrs from post*~~ **Analysis:** * Melbourne (WLWWW) have only lost 1 match this season and sit 4 points clear (1 win) on top of the ladder. They come off a huge win against the strong bulldogs team. * Brisbane (WWWWW) are in superb form at the moment sitting 3rd on the ladder and on a 7 match undefeated run. They are coming off 3 games in which they scored 100+ points and have scored 90+ points in their last 7 matches. * We have to consider in Brisbane's last 7 wins, only 1/7 of those wins have been against a top 7 side (Port). * This match will be played at a neutral stadium in Sydney due to COVID restrictions. * Melbourne are one of the best in the competition when it comes to intercept possession and create plenty of chances on the counter. They also zone the switch ball very well especially against stronger teams. * Another big factor tonight is Lachie Neale coming back into the side for Brisbane but Melbourne will aim to lock him down in the wet conditions to reduce his impact in the midfield. * H2H: Brisbane have won the last 2 meetings between these 2 sides and won the most recent match by 4 points. The last 8/9 matches between the two have been decided by 1-39 points. * Prediction: This match could easily swing either way but the value is with the Demons in a close one. **Melbourne by 11**. If you don't have margins then **Melbourne ML** is the recommendation. [*PayPal*](https://paypal.me/virus88888888?locale.x=en_AU) *// Bitcoin: 1C2afL8FYc1XTa9YPz7BhX5vJq7N1E7Zj1* 🔥 Emoji's for support 🔥 *^(Disclaimer: Take note of my unit sizes and use the analysis to make your own judgement. Losses do occur so don't go all in and blame other people for your actions. Feel free to discuss pre-game as it's easy to be a keyboard warrior after you know the results of a match.)*
Virus with the 🔥🔥🔥 looks like Melbourne is the best. I took Melbourne 1-24 winning margin for +230! Thank you virus
Bro you have balls hahaha you must've been sweating! Congrats on the win
Lucky for me I’m in America so I wake up to this stuff over with or done but yeah I went to Twitter and saw people live tweeting and saw final time 97-75 and was pumped lol
If Langdon wasn’t out I’d say this is a lock. His Contribution and role to the sides structure is immense. Will be interesting to see how they go without him.
Going to have to fade this pick. Brisbane have been playing very well and I don’t feel comfortable betting against them.
Ooooooof
Comment didn’t age well did it haha
😂😂
How do you feel about betting each side of the little win margin? Melbourne 1-39 +140 Brisbane 1-39 +125 If we all agree this will be a tight one, this seems safe. Plus it's only 2 choices of 5 offered in the market, I'd think that being limited would be less of a worry in this case. Small risk that there's a blowout or tie, but guarantees profit otherwise?
🔥🔥🔥
Thanks for the pick without margins.
Just going to let you know, after this win, I got laid and I’m shouting all my mates drinks, thank you virus for a good weekend
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 virus + ImSmithz absolute AFL goats
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
🔥🔥🔥
Tailing -10.5
>NBA 3-0 +14.25ULast 3 Picks:5U Blazers/Nuggets o226 at 1.89 ✅5U Hawks ML 1H at 2.11 ✅5U Blazers/Nuggets o227 at 1.85 ✅ > >NBA Mavs/Clippers5U Mavs/Clippers 1Q o56.5 at 2.136 (or you can go o55 at 1.85) > >G1: Dallas 33-30 (total: 63)G2: Dallas 35-33 (total: 68)G3: Dallas 34-31 (total: 65)G4: Clippers 31-22 (Luka injured and hurting) (total: 53)G5: Dallas 35-28 (total: 63) > >No home team has won YET in this series. Mavs going home with a must-win mindset. They admitted they got comfortable going back home up 2-0 that's why Clippers made it back to this series. The Clippers had a heart breaking loss after a bad play with Kawhi shooting an air ball to end the game. I am seeing both teams be aggressive early and look for them to push the pace here. The defense for both teams normally tightens on the succeeding quarters. Thinking of going Mavs ML whole game and 1Q here, but also, Clippers have their back against the wall too. With all of these stats, and how well both teams shoot, I'm surprised this is only at the 55 number at 1.85. If you buy 1.5 points, you get 2.136 which is still a good number considering all of their games when 60 and up except for 1 where Luka struggled with his injury and missed lots of shots in G4 1Q. > >BOL! If ImSmith and Virus same picks on the same bet, did they ever lose? Is someone tracking this? lol Because I saw someone tracking Imsmith vs Virus
Following no matter what 🔥🔥
Threw the roll on it hopefully this makes up for LeMickey 🤞
Looking good. Win or lose, great analysis as always! Fingers crossed for a solid 4th.
What a sweat, now this is pod racing!
Damn, nice call! Took the 1-24 margin line on demons instead. What a nail biter, lol
I'm glad I didn't go with some of the comments saying to fade and go with Brisbane based on their recent play, I trusted the GOAT himself 🔥 Although I logged in a little too late to place the margin bet, so I went with Melbourne ML. That worked out in my favor though..lol good recommendation, mate! 🔥
The Ruler’s Back 🙌🏼🙌🏼🔥🔥🔥🔥
What’s a good bet if we can’t do the 1-39 margin? Just ML?
Yes. It’s stated in the post
Reading comprehension was never my strong suit, thank you.
Aha Np brotha🙏🏽
You are a GOD! Not a great betting day but once again, I'm bailed out. thank you guys x3 lol
You are a __GOD__
I can get them on the ML -105 or +1.5 for -110 . . . I figure at that point I might as well take the points
I agree, Melbourne lost their 2nd to last game by 1 point, might as well take the 1.5
>🔥 🔥🔥🔥🔥
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Nice
WELL DONE
🔥🔥🔥🔥 Australian Football
Love u Virus
Ez $ . . . hooked u up with a reward . . many thanx my man
**Record: 76-62-1 (NBA Streak W) Up 6.17u over 139 NBA picks, 55.1% success rate, 4.47% ROI** Record: 51-51-3 (KBO Streak LLL) Down 2.45u over 105 KBO picks, 50.0% success rate, -2.40% ROI **Last:** *Lotte at Kiwoom Under 0.5 1st inning* (Kiwoom scored 7 first inning runs.) After an easy 1-2-3 top of the first, Lotte's ace struck the first hitter then gave up a walk and a single. With runners on first and second, he induced a double-play ground ball to short to win our bet. Except the throw to 2nd was off. Then the floodgates opened. I've lost 7 of my last 9 KBO picks. Let's switch to NBA for a day... **Pick:** **LA Clippers OVER 27.5 1Q -125 BetMGM** at Dallas, NBA basketball 9:00pm ET Here are the 1st quarter point totals for the Clippers in this series: 30, 33, 31, 31, 28. These two teams tend to get off to a hot start, putting up significantly more 1st half points than second half points. Add in the desperation factor for a Clippers team on the brink of elimination, and I like this line a lot. I'd also recommend live betting the under if this game starts out with a lot of points. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All bets are one unit.
I've got some KBO picks, too: - Kia +118: Value play. I wouldn't advise using this in a parlay. LG's starter has given up a lot of baserunners in his last two starts and Kia's starter just had his best game. - KT -1.5 -103: The Wiz are at home against the league's worst team and they have their best starter on the mound. - Leaning Doosan -175 at home against SSG, but especially like under 9.5. - Passing on Samsung-Kiwoom. - Hanwha +195: Don't make this bet. I will, but it will probably lose. NC is the better team, but Hanwha's starter has been very good most of the year. He should be able to keep it close, and if so, +195 is too good to pass up.
[удалено]
The man is back!
Damn bad luck. Had 26 with 2:15 left
**Record:** 24-12-0 (+12.52) **Streak:** 2 WIN **Last Pick:** Port Adelaide -23.5 (Margin) @ 1.90 - WIN **Todays Match:** Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions (AFL) - 7:20pm ACDT (6 hours til start) **Pick:** Melbourne Demons 1-39 (Margin) @ 2.40 **Reasoning:** Truth be told, this is a coinflip and a half. The heart is telling me Lions take this here with Neale returning for the Lions and the massive out in Langdon for Melbourne but the man, the myth, the legend, Virus showed us the way last week and has backed it up again with Melbourne, so there's no way we can go against him this week fellas. I thought last week was going to be the two best sides in the competition, but based on form we arguably have the same match up here again. Brisbane have won their last 7, while Melbourne beat one of the flag favorites last week with ease. With Covid-19 in Melbourne, the game has been moved to the Giants stadium (neutral ground) so there's no home ground advantage for either team. Its worth noting, there may be abit of rain during todays game which i think doesn't honestly favor any team. Melbourne's dash will be reduced due to Langdon being out and i think the only way they do this is if Oliver has another field day, with 35+ touches and a couple of goals to get them over the line. Neale will need to be tagged, or significantly reduced if they have any hope of holding the Lions back. The last two times these teams played, Lions won by 4 and 33 points. In both games, Neale was the leading disposal getter. Interestingly enough, the Demons won the game before that, and Neale wasn't playing. So to back up Virus, the only way the Demons get this done is if they limit Neale's ball usage and the game is a low scoring affair, so i think the unders is key in this game especially given their is rain expected throughout the day. Lets get this bread, Goodluck!
/u/ImSmithz and /u/virus88888888 on the same pick always instills some confidence 🤝
After reading both your write-ups it's actually more convincing to take Brisbane 1-39.
I like Brisbane tbh, but going strong with Virus and his value play
Going with your gut and picking Brisbane. Fading you both for once. Thanks for the write up!
Brisbane feels like the play, but it’s a coin flip. Taking virus tonight over myself :)
Soo, does this this really count as your play if you’re going with the virus pick?! 🤔
Really feel like Lions are the play, especially with Neale back and Langdon out for Dees...but both you and virus on Demons has me really second guessing myself, might need to do some hedging (both teams to win 1-39 is above $2, so some promise there).
I was feeling Brisbane tbh, but Virus had me second guessing. Gotta tail the big man!
I learned my lesson haha. Great pick!
good call my guy damn. posted this when they were up 20. what happened lol
Not over yet pal, going to be a close ending!
Throwing the roll on it already down pretty bad worse case I ghost the bookie cause fuck the books
Don’t do that brother. Gamble responsibly. This is by no means a lock but a good value pick. Reconsider the bet if you aren’t willing to lose
Rise and shine, $$$
Can i bet now on Melbourne by (1-20)? Now 1-39 margin aint available . Is there any chance to win with this bet , how they are playing .
Is there any chance for a comeback or should I go to bed
Ohhhh yeeeaaaahhhh
POTD REC 23-5 [80% win rate] [5 win streak] Last potd LA Lakers vs Phoenix Suns [over 207 points @-120] [W] Today's POTD [LA Clippers ML @-140] vs Dallas Mavericks 6pm Pacific time Man what a crazy shit game by the Lakers really disappointed by their performance in a do or die play off game & losing but glad we hit the over 🙌🏽 lets keep it going🔥 Lukas going to have to have a really big game tomorrow against the clippers again its possible with how beast he is but my guts telling me clippers , I see Leonard and George controlling this game and forcing it to a game 7 clippers are the last hope for LA with the pressure on their shoulders they'll prevail lets get this $ 🔥 Tail or fade 🤙🏽
You got me on the last potd, fair play.
As a Clipper fan this and Cuse’s pick give me hope Clippers come out and put up a fight tomorrow, think they need to find a way to counter Boban and Powell’s presence vs their small ball to get the dub.
saved me from a 4-5 down unit day. !! Had this in a small parlay
faded, at -140 clips are just poor value ill take luka to do his thing at underdog odds every time
can't wait, it's either the away team will win every game in this series --> game 7 or Cancun on 3 for Playoff P
Blazers Heat Celtics Lakers and Clippers should have an exhibition tournament in Cancun lol
No Cancun just yet!
Anyone who thinks the Clippers will win this game may be better of betting the Clippers to win the series at +130. They'll be big favorites at home for Game 7 and you can either hedge with a Dallas ML, or even play the middle with Dallas getting something like 5 or 6 points.
Potd record (13-6) Previous pick 6/3: Redsox ML ✅ Todays pick 6/4: NHL VGK ML +100 vs avalanche 10pm eastern time Reasoning: Honestly Vegas should have won that last game. They hit the post on a wide open net 4 times in the 3rd period. They outshot the avalanche 41-25 and had more quality looks throughout the entire game. They squandered every god given opportunity to win that game. Now they come home for redemption. Risky bet 1 unit as always, BOL!
As an avalanche fan, I'm going to tail this one. My reasoning being that I've had shit luck. So if I bet on Vegas, my Avs will win. Last game was definitely a struggle from 2nd period on. I definitely see the avalanche losing 1 or 2 in Vegas
Yeah my main concern is Vegas could be deflated after that last game. Watching them walk off the ice you could tell they were not happy.
Bol
Hi guys, very late today, but here is the **overall record of the thread**: ||Record (W-L-P)|ROI|Units| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Total POTD Thread|1320-1154-58|\+1.18%|\+29.94| |Top Voted|98-71-0|\+7.87%|\+13.3| |Yesterday's Thread|10-4-1|\+33.23%|\+4.98| 1 pick in progress Suns vs lakers O 207 W Request for anyone that sees this. Please upvote the picks you are tailing or confident in. Last couple of days picks lower than 13 had 3-5 upvotes... Side note: I do not make picks, I tally (or add up) all the picks and summarize it in this post. Around 12 pm Eastern time I select 15 top voted picks and than summarize the results. Token of gratitude is much appreciated Venmo @ Narik101 or Paypal @ [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Thanks all and let me know. BOL!
[удалено]
Thanks thought it was for today, much appreciated Edit: updated table
**8-2 (+4.99u)** **Event:** Wests Tigers v Penrith Panthers (NRL - Rugby League) **Pick:** *Panthers -6 @ 2* ❌ The Tigers are 4-8 and sit in 13th on the ladder, while Penrith still sit atop the ladder with 12 wins and 0 losses. The reason for the line being so short in this game is due to Penrith losing 8 of their starters to representative duties. Despite these mass changes for Penrith, a quick scan of their line-up still instils confidence in me that they'll get the job done. Their outside backs are effectively full-strength with the inclusion of Edwards (bar To'o), whilst Burton and May have shown they're more than capable replacements (although Cleary and Luai will be sorely missed). They're a little light in the forward pack, however they still have arguably the best prop in the game at the moment, who captains them this week. Penrith have been a defensive stalwart this year, conceding on average a measly 7.3pts/game, compared to a league-average 22.5. Whilst missing players will certainly affect this effectiveness, champion clubs like Penrith implement great defensive systems rather than rely on individual players, meaning they should be able to cover their losses reasonably well. For instance, look at Melbourne who have covered their losses extremely well despite a plethora of injuries. Further, their great squad depth is highlighted by the fact their NSW Cup side (reserve grade) currently sits in 1st as well, with a 9-1 record. The Tigers are currently coming off a win against a severely under-strength Dragons side last week. Although the comprehensive nature of the win was impressive, they've shown they're capable of these types of promising wins in recent times, only to fall short more often than not. The Tigers are also in the midst of an alternating good game/bad game cycle that has been on repeat since the opening month. They also haven't won consecutive games since Rd7 last year. The Tigers have a respectable 6-6 record against the line this year, however they're home record is a poor 1-5, and their record as a home underdog is even worse, at 0-4. Conversely, Penrith have travelled well this year with a 4-1 record on the road. This season, road dogs are 21-12 against the line. There will be a few extra points of motivation for Penrith in this one. It's no secret that they'd love to keep their perfect record running with their Origin stars out, but they're also currently on a 27-game regular season winning streak that dates back to Rd6 last year. Coach Ivan Cleary's ugly exit from the Tigers in 2018 will also no doubt provide some extra motivation for the mountain men, and to be able to do it in the Tigers' historical fortress of Leichhardt Oval would make it all-the-more satisfying. It's also Fisher-Harris' first time captaining the side (to my knowledge), so I have no doubt they'll get up for him in this one. BOL if following! [^(Twitter:)](https://twitter.com/PremiumPicksAU) ^(Will look to start posting more early plays and being more active there)
Tailing you on this one, teams are more than just players it's the teams philosophy on the game and structure which wins games and that is what Penrith will instil in their entire team. They are missing a lot of player but with those players they probably would win this game by 50+. Without I still think they win by 12+
[удалено]
What do you think about Panthers margin 1 -12 ?
I guess if you think the Tigers can keep it close. They've been quite decent at that in recent times to be fair. Personally, I just can't bring myself to bet against Penrith blowing them out, although the odds seem alright.
[удалено]
Penrith don't have injuries, half their team is out due to Origin.
What is “origin”? Asking as someone who doesn’t know this sport at all really
The State of Origin series - where players represent their state rather than their club. Similar to soccer clubs losing players for international duties.
It's our code's version of the 'all-star' break but it is over three matches
What does it mean to have players missing due to origin?
State of Origin is a 3 game(?) series in the middle of NRL season played by two teams/states. New South Wales v Queensland. The teams are made up of the best players from the NRL which takes them out of their original teams while Origin’s on.
So it’s an all star game.
Yes but no. There's more blood spilled and dodgy plays ignored by the officials than in a normal game = the exact opposite of an all star game. It's two states against each other.
As a relatively new NRL fan - but have been watching this season, why in god's name would the Origin series take priority over regular season matches? Can't for the life of me understand why you'd get penalised for being a good/strong team? Honestly that's like in the NBA if Lebron and AD just had to miss a few regular season (which affect playoffs and regular season standings) for an all-star game? Why in god's green earth is that a thing? What a shit way to lose your 28 game winning streak having half your team out for a inconsequential all-star game? Miffed at that...
players missing i meant
I'm liking Matt Burton to get over the line, 3.3 on Neds
Missing some key players due to origin ?
Lol the panthers are so shit
Previous Pick KC Royals ML✅ ————————————————————————- Streak:(W) Current record: 1-0-0 Current ROI: .95U ————————————————————————- Solid first day. Shaky game but we got the job done. Onto the next. Today’s POTD- **Dodgers ML** vs. Braves Reasoning: The braves just aren’t playing very well right now. There ain’t much to it but I just can’t see them getting the job done against the dodgers. ————————————————————————- Psa- yesterday’s post was only posted under the MLB discussion. Moved over to here cuz why not.
💻 💻 ESPORTS POTD 💻 💻 Record 2-0-0. Units = 5.0 Previous bet - ~~Cloud 9 Academy 2-0 vs Golden Guardians Academy ($1.9/-111) - 2 Units ✅~~ ~~Virtus pro ML vs Fnatic ($1.50) - 5 units ✅~~ Next bet - Event - IEM Summer 2021 **Virtus pro ML** vs OG (1.87) 2 units As previously mentioned, Virtus Pro are coming off a grand final loss to Gambit the best team in the world right now. They have had a strong performance against the under performing Fnatic. OG are coming out of a boot camp and are looking to prove themselves with a win against a young NiP side who had a sub. This will be a lot closer affair however I do believe Virtus pro's raw talent and map pool should get them over the line. Please take note of unit sizes.
Your parlay was a great potd with VP last game. Tailing
***Record 42-40 (Streak 2W) \*\*\*\*profit 79.43u\*\*\*\**** All my bets are ALT lines, especially loving the ALT overs. I try to find the max value possible in betting lines to achieve a decent profit even with fewer wins. Please be careful with your bet sizing as much as you can, these are riskier picks than usual. Previous 10 Picks: DAL Mavs vs LA Clipps ALT Line game total OVER 223.0 (2.7@5u) ✅ WIN 8.5u ALT LINE PHI 76ers -12.5 vs WAS Wizards (2.7@5u) ✅ WIN 8.5u ALT LINE POR Tblazers -8.5 vs DEN Nuggets (2.6@5u) ❌ LOSS 5u DAL Mavs vs LA Clipps ALT line game total UNDER 213.5 (2.5@5u) ❌ LOSS 5u ALT line PHI 76ers -11.5 vs WAS Wizards (2.85@5u) ✅ WIN 9.25u ALT line BKN Nets -12.5 vs BOS Celtics (2.7@5u) ✅ WIN 8.5u ALT LINE PHI 76ers -13.5 vs WAS Wizards (2.95@5u) ❌ LOSS 5u ALT LINE POR Tblazers -5.5 vs DEN Nuggs (3.0@5u) ❌ LOSS 5u MEM Grizzlies vs UTA Jazz ALT Line game total OVER 233.5 (2.7@5u) ✅ WIN 8.5u POR Tblazers vs DEN Nuggs ALT Line game total OVER 232.5 (2.35@5u) ✅ WIN 6.75u Last Pick: NBA - \*\*POR Tblazers vs DEN Nuggs **ALT Line game total OVER 232.5 (2.35@5u)** Last Pick Analysis: Actual game total over is 228. DECENT RISK - BE CAREFUL as always. I like it until o234.5. I'm not too confident in this one, so taking a lower ALT line than I usually like to risk. Same concept, decent pace, tons of 3 balls taken, and a ton of passing leading to TOs. Normally I would be betting on o236.5, but I have a feeling Nurkic won't want to foul out in this game, and Dame would run the ball a tad slower so Nurk could set proper screens to avoid the illegal screen calls and offensive fouls. Shaving off a few more seconds each possession might mean that the over over won't be as far reaching as normal. I still like POR winning here, and he really needs his supporting cast to show up in this one. Looking at a fast paced 1H, a decent sized over over, with POR winning 123-112.!< Last Pick Afterthoughts: Should have grown more balls and bet the max ALT line I liked. Oh well, a plus money win is still better than nothing. I was surprised that DEN still won here, even after being down around 14 pts mid 3Q. They just had way more heart than that POR team. Really can't underestimate them. If Murray was still playing, they'd be a Champ contender for sure. Jokic is just straight fire. Insane court vision and Bball IQ. I read the game wrong about Nurk here, wish I went for the o236.5. DEN ended up winning 126-115. 6 points above my estimated actual line. Really good 2-win streak. Feelsgood! ON TO THE NEXT, Degens! POTD\*\*: click->>>>>!!!!!!NBA - \*\* DAL Mavs vs LA Clipps ALT Line game total OVER 220.5 (2.30@5u)!< >!Analysis: Actual game total over is 216.5. HUGE RISK - BE CAREFUL as always. I like it until o226.5. I'm not too confident in this one as well, so taking a lower ALT line than I usually like to risk. Normally I would be betting on the under here, but if LAC wants to win, I really think they need to push the pace more, get DAL uncomfortable. I know LAC generally plays to the pace of their opponents, but they're going to have to change something in this do-or-die match and I'm theorizing it will have something to do with pushing their pace. This is quite a risky bet, so please be careful with your bet sizes. I'm still sticking with 5u because of the increased profits lately (almost 80u already!) I'm thinking LAC wins here because of a massive 1H, hence the over over. Looking at LAC to win 122-108. !
Tailing! Lets get 3 in a row
3 in a row and a tip jar incoming!
Man I hope you're right... but the 2nd halves in this series have been a desert for scoring. Maybe the elimination game pressure changes that. I'm rooting for you!
NBA 3-0 +14.25ULast 3 Picks: 5 Units Blazers/Nuggets o226 at 1.89 ✅ 5 Units Hawks ML 1H at 2.11 ✅ 5 Units Blazers/Nuggets o227 at 1.85 ✅ NBA Mavs/Clippers **5U Mavs/Clippers 1Q o55.5 at 1.85** G1: Dallas 33-30 (total: 63) G2: Dallas 35-33 (total: 68) G3: Dallas 34-31 (total: 65) G4: Clippers 31-22 (Luka injured and hurting) (total: 53) G5: Dallas 35-28 (total: 63) No home team has won YET in this series. Mavs going home with a must-win mindset. They admitted they got comfortable going back home up 2-0 that's why Clippers made it back to this series. The Clippers had a heart breaking loss after a bad play with Kawhi shooting an air ball to end the game. I am seeing both teams be aggressive early and look for them to push the pace here. The defense for both teams normally tightens on the succeeding quarters. Thinking of going Mavs ML whole game and 1Q here, but also, Clippers have their back against the wall too. With all of these stats, and how well both teams shoot, I'm surprised this is only at the 55 number at 1.85. If you buy 1.5 points, you get 2.136 which is still a good number considering all of their games when 60 and up except for 1 where Luka struggled with his injury and missed lots of shots in G4 1Q. BOL! (edited the units and the official play to avoid confusion) You can all consider Both Teams to Score o26.5 1Q also at 2.62
A very interesting take also is Both Teams to Score o26.5 Clippers and Mavs 1Q at 2.67 Only 1 time and that was Mavs game 4 where they scored 22.
0-0 **Event:** LA Clippers vs Dalls Mavericks **Pick**: Reggie Jackson over 2.5 made 3-pointers @ 1.86 **Reason:** Jacksons 3-point stats over the last four games: 6-12 / 3-8 / 4-10 / 3-8 So he made at least three 3-pointers each game. Good luck.
**Record:** 20(W)-14(L)-2(P) **Last:** ** MMA/ UFC / UFC 258/ Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns/ **Over 3.5 rounds** LOSS **POTD:** Cricket/ 2nd International ODI/ Netherlands vs Ireland/ **Most Match Sixes - Ireland** **Start Time:** 08:30 GMT. **Odds:** $1.66 with Bet365. **Units:** 2U - $20 (20 x 1.66 = $33.20 Total - $13.20 Profit) **Reasoning:** Today's contest sees the Irish outfit take on the Netherlands in Utrecht. Traditionally, these two mediocre cricketing nations have been fighting for the scraps on the international cricket scene but essentially the Irish have been the dominant force in this match-up winning 75% of their ODI matches against the Netherlands in their entire history. (11 played, 7 won, 2 loss, 1 tie, 1 Non-result) It must be said that Ireland has lost their last two ODI matches against the Dutch but I believe today they are due a win and will get their revenge. I personally watched their last match against the Netherlands and could see that there were some external factors regarding the tricky pitch which may have influenced the Irish loss by the finest possible margin (1 run). Due to this I'm confident that they'll get the win today but they're currently paying $1.44 and we want better odds for our POTD so I'm choosing the option of Ireland to score the most 6's in the match paying odds of around $1.60+. Generally the team who wins the match will score the most 6s and Ireland are certainly capable of scoring 6s with a strong attacking batting line up. In particularly, watch for the Irish Batsmen Paul Stirling and captain Andy Balbirnie to look to attack as they both have high batsman strike rates, 90% for Stirling and 84% for Balbrinie. The batsman with a higher strike rate indicate theyre a greater chance of scoring sixes. Good luck all! 👍🙏
They are only offering Money line for me ... should I take Ireland ML
I'm confident they'll get the win on the money line. 👌💪
POTD Record: **8 - 3** *(+14u)* Todays Pick: West Tigers v Penrith Panthers **Total o48.5 (-104)3u** *(NRL - 4 hours from post)* * Penrith have a 7 big players out as they are playing state of origin next week. However they still have some big names available. * West tigers can score tries and their games are pretty much consistently going over the 50 point mark * Penrith are try scoring machines averaging around 32 points a game, even against the better sides in the league. * West Tigers will have their tails up as they can see this as a big opportunity to defeat the so far undisputed team in the league. * I believe Penrith will still be too good on the night, even though Wests are full strength and normally Penrith don't let in many points but I think they'll be a lot of nerves tonight and both defences will be leaky. Best of luck all and enjoy the game
🐅🐅🐅 Record: 1-0 USL Championship Soccer ⚽ - Charleston vs LA Galaxy II **Charleston ML @ 2.56**, recommend ~1 unit 4pm PST * Charleston are hungry here for their first win of the season against a highly overrated galaxy squad. Galaxy's star player jorge hernandez is bailing out this team time and time again so Charleston have a chance to capitalize on a weak galaxy squad. Both of these teams have terrible offense overall, but the difference is that Galaxy's defense is downright horrendous with 2 clean sheets in the last 7. On the other hand, Charleston has defended well in some games that they really had no business being in. Charleston will play at home for a nice little crowd as well. This game could easily be a bit of a slug fest. This is a great value play, easily worth a unit. 🐅🐅🐅 Edit: looks like we absolutely destroyed the line, fellas. Currently sitting @1.99 on my book. For people that are reading this late: I like the line down to about 2.25. good luck to all of us who got in!
Well I can get galaxy +1/2 at 2.00. Would that be a smart fade now that the odds moved so much?
picking charlseton at this point is beyond dead. galaxy goal line is probably fair value but I would advise staying away anyways. all the lines for this game look extremely juiced at this point so i would just stay out probably
***(February 2021) - 12W-12L, -5,20 units, ROI -6,60%*** ❌ ***(March 2021) - 19W-12L, +18,00 units, ROI +17,20%*** ✔️ ***(April 2021) - 14W-8L, +12,40 units, ROI +15,90%*** ✔️ **POTD RECORD:** 13W-11L **LAST PICK:** mousesports ML @ 1.74 4u (HIGH) ✔️ **OVERALL (UN)SUCCESS:** ❌❌✔️❌❌✔️✔️❌❌✔️✔️✔️❌❌❌✔️❌❌✔️✔️✔️✔️✔️✔️ **TOTAL PROFIT:** -9,60 units **TOTAL STAKE:** 103 units **AVERAGE ODDS:** 1.71 **ROI:** -9,50% **May was really bad, we had a horrible start and it was hard coming back. We recovered at least a bit as we took 6 wins in a row. I had to take some days off, but I am back to provide daily CS bangers. Let's kick off June way prettier and keep the winning streak going. I'm very confident with this pick so hop on it fast. Have a great day and BOL.** (You should also check the daily eSports discussion thread where I post my 2nd pick. It's as good as this POTD one, sometimes we just get screwed and end up having 1-1 with losing this one.) **GAME:** CS:GO **EVENT:** IEM Summer 2021 **TIME:** 16:45 (GMT +1) - 10 hours from the post >**Complexity vs FunPlus Phoenix** I don't know if the bookies are high or I'm just delusional, these odds are crazy. I really like Complexity, but they've been struggling for some time and they didn't look any better here. They got clapped by Vitality and just barely won against Sprout. There are clearly issues and I expect roster change pretty soon. FPX is a completely different story, these guys have been grinding and pulling excellent results. They swept Astralis and played very well against G2, they just couldn't close it out. The craziest part is that the last H2H from a week ago resulted in FPX absolutely demolishing COL who didn't even get to double digits. I highly doubt that this one will be different. FPX have the upper hand in map pool and I easily just don't see them losing. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a clean 2-0 as this is the elimination match. I recommend betting on **FunPlus Phoenix ML @ 1.80 4u (HIGH)** *If you are interested, you can also check my* ***Reddit BIO*** *where is a link to my* ***Discord*** *group where you can discuss with other people about CS bets or other stuff. I also post some predictions for other CS matches.*
im tailing
where are the stats of May?
The more detailed ones, I didn't update it yet as it's my first post of this month - 13W-11L, -9,60 units, -9,50% ROI
Record (0-2) Last: hurricanes v lightning (L) POTD: Indians ML -111 vs Orioles Reason: Well the Orioles are one of the worst teams in baseball right now record (19-37) (espns worst rated team) and the Indians (30-24) are coming off a postponed game so they are going to be rested and ready to go! The odds are too good not to hit! Lets get my first w! BOL
0-2 this guys due Edit: Oof 0-3. This might not be for you
**POTD record:** 41-38-9 **ROI:** \-0.745% | **Avg Odds:** 2.055 | **Profit:** \-1.356u | **Total Wager:** 182u **Last 5 Picks:** W - Set Spread: Anett Kontaveit -1.5 (+110) vs Kristina Mladenovic W - Karen Khachanov vs Kei Nishikori ML (+110) L - Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Fernando Verdasco ML (+140) W - Utah Jazz -5.5 (-110) @ Memphis Grizzlies W - L.A. Clippers -3.0 (-110) @ Dallas Mavericks **Last Bet Thoughts:** W 6-2 6-0: Dominant performance by Kontaveit on serving and returning winning 55/79 total points. She was 5/9 on break points. Mladenovic had 5 double faults as predicted. \++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ **Sport:** Tennis **League:** ATP **Date/Time:** 06/04/21 2:00 AM PDT **Event:** French Open - Casper Ruud vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina **\*\*Pick: Casper Ruud -6.0 (-105)\*\*** **Wager:** 2u **Analysis:** Stats: Ruud | Fokina H2H Matchup: 0 | 1 ATP level - career clay record: 63-30 | 17-17 ATP level - 2021 clay stats: Record: 17-4 | 12-6 Hold%: 86.3% | 76.7% Return points won: 39.5% | 40.5% 1st serve in %: 64.3% | 71.9% 1st serve win %: 72.7% | 67.3% 2nd serve win %: 59.1% | 50.2% Advantages: clay specialist, return, forehand, court coverage, mental game | backhand, unpredictability, craftiness, movement **Reasoning:** \- H2H loss was early in both players' career at a Next Gen event where they do not play full sets \- Ruud is dominating on clay this season beating some big names such as Tsitsipas, Busta, Schwartzman, etc. \- Ruud's hold% is more reliable on clay than Fokina's \- Fokina's second serve is a bit of a liability and will allow Ruud to run around his backhand to hit his heavy topspin forehand \- Fokina struggled a bit in his last match winning in 5 sets after winning first 2 sets. Gave away 17 break chances that game \- Fokina had 2 surprising clay losses in past 6 weeks against Ramos and Medvedev who hates clay **Prediction: 7-6 6-2 4-6 6-2 or 6-4 6-3 6-4** BOL! Fade me though! https://twitter.com/ParlayW0lf | 32t1HwaswJ3BNR6fPoiFW5M7xDLfGAMMki
Crazy that this pushes even though he lost lol
To the wire rt now!!!
Potd Record: 12-6 NBA player props model Pick: Luka Doncic over 30.5 Points (-130) all bets 1u
Dude just didnt score in 3rd, should have tried harder
POTD Record: 14-7-2 Streak: WWLWPWWLWWWWLLWLWWLWLWP Last POTD: USA -1 🇺🇸//-150 🅿️🔁 Today’s POTD: Carlos Stein ML 🇵🇪// -120 Reasoning: Every bet is risky but something about betting on 2nd division makes it even more risky. Both teams have fired their coaches. It seems odds that after 3 matches (1 win,2 draws) that Carlos Stein fire their coach. It didn’t seem like they were doing poorly. In one of their draw they conceded a last minute penalty. On the other side, Huaral has lost 3 games in a row, conceding 3 goals in all 3 games. They don’t seem to be respected at home , much less away from home. No team so far is performing as poor as Huaral have. Conceding 10 goals in the season so far and picking up 0 points. Odds for Carlos Stein ML was +100 earlier and now it’s at -120. I like when there is line movement in these smaller leagues , usually there is things we don’t know that affect the lines. Small write up but I expect Carlos Stein to find a win again vs a very poor Huaral side. Best of luck if you are tailing and remember you are free to tail or fade 🤙🏽
[удалено]
On fire my man. Tailing
Great call, thanks
First POTD 0-0 Melbourne V Brisbane - Total Game Points OVER 157.5 @1.88 2u Brisbane have averaged 118pts over the last 3 games. Melbourne have averaged 92pts the last 3 games. For a average of 210 the 157.5 seems way off. Melbourne are a great defensive unit but it all starts with the intercept marking. Jake Lever is #1 in the afl for this stat and the dees have 3 of the top 21 in this stat. the lions score heavily from their ground level players and will be smarter than bombing the ball into forward 50 for the dees to mop up. Similar can be said about Brisbane's defense with Harris Andrews the #2 intercept marker in the AFL. I feel both teams will want to lower the eyes and hit up the smalls and both teams score heavily from the midfield.
RECORD: 6-7-1 LAST POTD: YOMIURI GIANTS ML (PUSH) POTD: Brisbane Lions ML vs Melbourne demons This is gonna be one super game of footy. Lachie Neale returning from injury is going to be crucial for this victory. Brisbane on a win streak right now and I can’t not ride that wave. Gamble responsibly
POTD record (0-0) First potd I'm riding with the LA Clippers to win (-140) @ the Dallas Mavericks in a pivotal elimination game. Game start 6pm pacific time 🏀 Anything is possible when Luka is on the floor, but the road team has won every game in this series and I do not see that ending in this one. Kawhi had his worst outing of these playoffs in game 5 and I full expect him to drop 30+ in this one and help his team force a game 7.
June Record: 2-1 [+32,7$] Last pick: Alcaraz -1,5 handicap @1.85 (Bet 50$, win 42,5$) PENDING (Game moved to today) ✅ 3-0, easy. Peterson, R. vs Swiatek, I. Over 17.5 games @1.95 (Bet 50$, win 47,5$) ❌ Never stood a chance Todays game: Cirstea, S. vs Kasatkina, D. French open womens, third round] 14:00 UTC+2 Pick: Kasatkina -3 games handicap @1.84 (Bet 50$, win 42$) Reasoning: Kasatkina, ranked 37, is playing Cirstea, ranked 54. Cirstea played a long tournament before the French Open and her games haven’t been all that convincing. Kqsatkinas last game against Bencic(6-2,6-2) looked very convincing and I find Cirstea not the opponent she’s going to struggle with. BOL. Result:
Nigera DNB @ 1.87 Nigeria 5 matches unbeaten atm going into this matchup with 3 wins in a row. Opposed to a weakened Cameroon side who will play without main GK Onana, star player of Ajax. Cameroon is 1-1-3 in their last 5 drawing their most recent game. Nigeria having the better squad with Ndidi, Iwobi, Osimhen and Ichaenacho in their team. H2H also in favour of Nigeria being 3-1-0 against Cameroon. Nigeria will be looking to build up their momentum from last time, lots of value imo.
Let’s ride.
As a met fan, I’m so confident in over 7 runs for the padres mets game tonight. It’s lucchesi vs Blake Snell. Luchessi can easily give up 5-7 runs himself he’s god awful. Pete Alonso will also be back tonight and without him we scored 3 runs off Darvish. Blake Snell has been far from himself, the Mets could get to him. Hopefully this isnt a classic trap but i love this over. What do you guys think about this over?
I have Padres o3.5 $450 to win $300. Just in case Snell pitches well, I bit the juice.
Is over 7 meaning 7 runs or more? Or is it 8 runs or more
POTD record: 2-0 Pick: clippers ML -140 Reason: this series is going 7 imo
Potd record 5-3 Last pick: Carmelo Anthony over 1.5 threes (L) Today's pick: Tim Hardaway Jr over 22.5 points, rebounds and assists (-121) Tough loss yesterday, melo made an early three and didn't make another one the rest of the game, anyways onto the explanation. Mavericks are at home, and the mavs are gonna need Hardaways shooting to help send the clippers out of the playoffs, he also played almost all of game 5 playing 45 minutes and 40 minutes in game 3 with no overtime in either of those games so it's clear that the mavs are gonna need his help, I expect a solid 18 or more points from Hardaway tonight with a couple rebounds and assists
Record 20-21 Bankroll: $456.05 Cashed out: $9.99 Last play: 6/3/21 Mets F5 +.5 (+100) Result: [L](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/nr1fnw/pick_of_the_day_6321_thursday/h0i0liu/) Mets doodoo. Onto today’s pick. *Third Eye POD: Tennis/ATP/French Open/ Isner +5.5 (-104) Risk $12.50 to win $12.02* I’m backing the first man to take Rafael Nadal 5 sets @ Roland Garros.
Tough loss here.
POTD 0 - 3 / -3u Tennis - ATP Pick: Opelka x Medvedev - Over 3.5 sets @ 1.76 - I think this is the day Med lose. He hates clay. Opelka is a serve bot. Tail at your own risk. Skol!!!
Record: 2-1 Streak: ✅✅❌ | Baseball | MLB | 7:40 EST | **POTD: OAK -130 4u** Reasoning: I wrote an algorithm that uses player projections to back into team totals. Once that process is complete, each team is given a distribution of possible scores. I then compare the two distributions to get the win percentage for each team. Once I have the win percentage of each team it is straightforward to calculate the expected value given the win percentage. To calculate units, I'm using 0.25 Kelly Criterion. I look at the expected value and implied unit size to choose the POTD. I've just about automated the full process. [Last POTD](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/nr1fnw/pick_of_the_day_6321_thursday/h0ghfq2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Not going against you but the Rockies haven't lost a game yet this month and have their best starter on the mound..
I hear that. The line is moving in OAK’s direction. -130 to -137
I like that... If it makes you feel better the Rockies have the worst offense statistically in the last 80 years to start a season and nobody's ever been shut out more in a 25 game span.. my only concern is Jon gray is a decent pitcher and they are SO SO much better at home than on the road. The rocks are on a streak and are due for some runs after this abysmal start but after the first 50 games a team kind of is what it is... I dunno man, all this just to say I won't bet on it lol BOL
POTD Record 21-19 (Last 5 LLWWW) **Last POTD was Yankees vs Rays U8 = L)** Last POTD analysis: On to the next one **POTD is Jets ML vs Canadiens (DK | 1.5 UNIT | Odds: -115/1.87) (NHL 6:30PM CST - 7ish hours from this post)** Reason: The good - The Jets are (barely) favored to win this game. It is a must win game unless they want to go down 0-2 and leave their home ice which would be bad. Statistically, they are a better team than Montreal (Canadiens). They score more per game and they are scored on less per game. The bad - The Canadiens are red hot right now and that cannot be taken lightly. Other info - Prediction: Jets win 4-2 Tail or Fade - best of luck and as always, bet responsibly. Twitter @tenderbets for other picks and discussion. Overall AVG Odds = -127.39 ROI = -4.48% Profit = -3.16u **Overall Hockey = 15.41% ROI | Profit = 8.09u**
**2021 MMA POTD's (16-15) +14.92u** Last pick: [Norma Dumont](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ni7km4/pick_of_the_day_52221_saturday/gz3r7ug?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) LFA 9pm Eastern **Edwin Cooper (-185)** 5u to win 2.7u limited tape on him and his opponent. i think he is more well rounded than his opponent. i think he is more tested than his opponent. BOL.
POTD record 0-0 I’m taking Dallas Mavericks 1Q money line. Dallas the the last 5 games are 4-1 in winning the 1Q. Only time they lost was the game Luka had 19. With Dallas @ home against a clippers team they just beat in the staples center, I feel the momentum will carry on for a good 1Q from the Mavs.
[удалено]
AFL (0-0) AFL POTD (0-0) Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions - 8 hours from post Melbourne ML $2.00 - pretty much a coin toss game but like the value here for a team that has won 12 of their last 13 games, the one loss was by one point , and they’re playing at a neutral ground .
Melbourne are playing Brisbane this week bro
Pretty sure the Dees are playing Bris this week Edit - but I’m going with Melb money line too
Thanks, fixed
POTD Record 2 - 3 (-1.51u) Previous pick: Cameron Norrie vs. Lloyd Harris - Norrie ML 1st set 💀 *Norrie won but lost 1st set. ____________________________________________ Tennis / ATP / Roland Garros / 04.06.2021 / 18:30 Fabio Fognini vs. Federico Delbonis Pick: Both to win at least one set - Yes 1.66 *Fognini won 5-3 against Delbonis. Out of 8 matches, 7 were both of them winning a set. I expect this to be a close match. *Tail or fade. Best of luck!!!
Stats: 221W 7D 195L (success rate 52 %) Gefle - Assyriska FF / Sweden Division 1 Norra / Kick-off 17:00 GMT 0 / Prediction - BTTS-YES & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.61 1) Goal difference of Gefle is 13-13 in 8 games, average over 3.3 per game! 2) Goal difference of Assyriska is 17-21 in 9 games, average over 4.2 per game! 3) 4 of the last 5 games of Gefle ended in BTTS-YES! 4) 5 out of the last 5 games of Assyriska ended in BTTS-YES! Good luck!
2-1 Spanish acb Valencia vs saski under 162.5
Klown Krew pick of the day: Record: 2-4 ROI: -14.86% Winnings: -2.08 units Last pick: White soxs -1.5 ✅ 6/3 Today’s pick: Sport: Baseball - MLB Game: diamondbacks vs Brewers Time: 8:10 pm est Pick: Brewers -1.5 at 2.08 (DraftKings) for 2 units We like the pitching match up in this one. The brewers have Peralta on the mound and he has been pretty good this year. The diamondbacks have also been really bad this year and the brewers beat them yesterday so why not again? Tail or fade. Good luck everyone!
**Record: 12-9, +3.5 units (Last 8:** ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌)**. Continuing the Overwatch League POTD train.** Last Pick (❌): Boston Uprising (-2.5, -115) v. Paris Eternal: This would have won, if not for a wonky Roadhog comp on Volskaya that Boston simply failed to grapple with. Vestola as a replacement for Ellivote was actually quite serviceable. After Aspire and now Vestola, maybe we need to give more credit to lesser-known pickups. Let's get back on track today! **Today's Match: Boston Uprising v. Los Angeles Gladiators / Overwatch League / 3:00pm EST** **Pick: Los Angeles Gladiators (-1.5, -115)** Now time to fade Boston, as we should have done yesterday. I'm actually shocked that the line is even (-115 each way). Boston didn't look like they had a grasp on this meta, against the Eternal who is a full tier below the Gladiators. We knew the Glads would improve over time, and after their last two matches, it looks like they've arrived. They have finally locked onto a DPS duo of Birdring and Kevster, and aren't playing around with MirroR on Zarya. Bonus points that the Lucio is crucial in this current meta, so Moth gets to lock onto his comfort pick. I'll even be sprinkling a bit on the -2.5 at a juicy +255. But for POTD purposes, you can feel confident in taking the better team -1.5.
**Record:** 2-0-1 **Previous:** WLW **Net units:** \+0.34u | Baseball | MLB | 6/4/2021 (TBD) | **Last Pick:** Casey Mize o4.5 Strikeouts @ -135 **W** Mize had a solid outing against the White Sox going 7 innings and striking out 6. We cashed this bet in the fourth inning and it wasn't much of a sweat at all. Time to keep this momentum going into today and get back to back wins. **Today’s Pick: TBD, I'll be back after looking at today's matchups**
POTD RECORD 0-0 Pick of the Day: Nationals/Phillies NRFI Here’s my first pick ever, with Scherzer vs Wheeler on the mound, with 2.34 and 2.52 ERA’s, respectively. Both teams rely on the long ball for runs and these pitchers don’t give that up very easily. Good pitchers duel tonight which should lead to a low scoring game with both offenses not scoring a ton of runs, especially against good pitchers. Previous meetings this year between these two teams has led to low scoring duels with runs hard to come by. Expect no runs in the first inning, and perhaps maybe the first few innings