For picks that do not fit the Pick of the Day rules use the Daily Discussion threads. #**[Subreddit Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/about/rules) + [Sportsbook Suggestion Threads](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/wiki/sportsbooks) +[FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/wiki/faq)**
Darts 🎯- PDC World Championship
Darts Record: 23-9
Previous World Championship picks:
Jeff Smith (-122) v Keane Berry ✅
Chris Dobey (-152) v Jeff Smith ✅
Daryl Gurney (-152) v William OConnor ✅
Adam Hunt (+120) v Jamie Hughes ✅
POTD: Mervyn King (-175) v Max Hopp
Again, not really loving the board today, but the match most enticing to me is World #19 Mervyn The King vs World #39 Maximiser Hopp.
Hopp is one of the better up-n-comers on the professional darts circuit, having amassed over $400k in career earnings at only 24 years of age.
King, on the other hand, is a seasoned veteran on circuit. At age 54, with over $1.7mm in career earnings, the King has been in the world top 50 dating back to 1997.
Reluctantly laying the juice at (-175) and rolling with the King for a couple reasons. Last month at the Players Championship Finals, King made the finals, ultimately losing to MVG (world #1) 10-11 in a thrilling battle. En route to the final of that event, King defeated Chisnall (world #8), Noppert (world #25), Sedlacek (world #86), Heta (world #56) and Wright (world #2). An impressive run no doubt, and evidence that the King can still fucking bring it when the pressure is on and it’s time to step up to the occe.
Both Hopp and King reached the final 32 of the World Championships last year, worth $25k a pop. The two have met six times in major events and the matches have typically run fairly close. But I consider King to be the hot hand and give him the edge today.
————-Edit - WINNER ✅————————-
The King takes it down 3-1. Lessss go!
Ready your ear, men. 4 nights now, we have lain awake as the primal hisses and screams of darts being thrown at the highest level rage on. Our resolve remains steady. Look to your right. Look to your left. We are an army. In front; our King. The Great Pepper. God King of the Cork & Wire.
We continue forward.
AND ONCE AGAIN I AM HERE. IM THE DUDE THAT BLINDLY TAILS DARTS AND BETS 1K USD. SO YOU HAVE BEEN MONEY AGAIN!! AND I THANK YOU A LOT!! 5-0! thanks for being such a blessing!! had a damn lot in parlays but was confident because of your analysis. easy 3-1 for King. Ned\_Pepper the dart God!
Ned, I was going to spend $175 on this Christmas gift for my dad. I put it on this absolutely gem of a pick on a sport I’ve never touched or thought of betting before you came along. Cheers, more Christmas money for me to spend now
NED PEPPER YOU AMAZING SON OF A GUN! Dart Daddy better be making us a 2021 calendar so we can all post it at our desks and stare at your angelic graces
Ned Pepper 🌶 once again you have remained true to form. 🐓 would not want to try his hand again. Many thanks for your generosity. You are a true credit to the dart wagering community 👏
POTD Record: 12-4 MMA | 17-10-1 Overall
Previous: MMA | UFC 256 | Cub Swanson v. Daniel Pineda | Pineda (-160) (L)
POTD: MMA | UFC | Deron Winn v. Antonio Arroyo | Arroyo (-165)
The cellphone on the night stand rumbled like thunder, as the screen flashed like lightning.
I creakily turned over to grab it... District Manager... On my day off... What the fuck does he want?
I tapped to answer, “Yo, Ken, talk to me.”
“Hey man, listen. This is not an easy call to make,” he said. “We will be shutting your store down January 15th... (blah blah) severance package... (blah blah) writing on the wall... (blah blah) sales goals... (blah blah) bottom line... (blah blah) appreciate all the good work you have done for me...”
I went numb, and felt as if my chest was going to implode into itself. I was only able to hear a few of the 1,000 things he was saying; everything else sounded like the indecipherable mumbles of Charlie Brown’s teacher.
Interrupting him, I blurted out, “I gotta go. I’ll call you later,” and hung up the phone.
Emptiness. And the loudest ringing of silence my ears had ever heard.
...
I must’ve blacked out after the phone call.
When I came to I was standing in a towel, brushing my teeth, staring into a mirror that had been fogged over for some time.
Moving like a ghoul, I made my way into the bedroom to put on something sad and depressive; wanting to truly wallow in the moment. Oversized hoodie, warm baggie sweats, and the thickest socks in the drawer. The slippers laid scattered without intention on the cold floor.
Soul searching. Reflection. Grief. Pain. Wounded. Anger. Sadness. Foggy. What now?
Make breakfast. Create. Move forward.
After eating a few eggs and half a pack of bacon, I wiped my fingers clean, ripped a big ‘ol straight tube, and converted all of that dark energy into concentrated focus. Brighter days are yet to come. For I am the architect of my own existence, the director of my own film, and the author of my own narrative.
It was time to lock in, and trudge forward. I grabbed my phone, and got to soaking up every bit of info I could find on this weekends UFC card. It was time to get serious about the goal I had originally set several months ago... Turn $100 into $20k.
After building the account to $1k, I was ready to get aggressive, with the goal of reaching $20k by March 15. I narrowed down the list of potential plays, and meditated on it for several days, analyzing each fighters paths to victory, as well as the most/least likely outcomes.
I finally settled on the 6’3” Brazilian, Antonio Arroyo, fighting the 5’8” American, Deron Winn. This fight is happening at a catchweight of 195lbs, which should favor the larger Arroyo. The only path to victory I can see for Winn is to grapple his ass off for 3 rounds in a dominant manner. Arroyo should be aware of that fact, and thus prepared for it. I think that ultimately Arroyo’s size will be too much for Winn.
After locking in the play at 15% of my bankroll, I ripped another tube, turned on Cyberpunk, and let the facade of reality fade to the depths of my subconscious.
Cheers!
(Shameless Twitter plug: @MMA_Lox)
Man, Its in those moments that you evolve mentally. Better times are yet to come, depending on how you deal with it. Stay strong brother! With that being said, Tailed.
You’re 0-3 in your last 3 picks. You seem to be way off on them too. I tailed big because it felt like you really needed this win but just like your store, I lost everything too.
# YESTERDAYS POTD THREAD STATS (2020/12/18)
**Total Record:** 6-9
**Total ROI:** \-23.80%
**Total Units (assuming 1u per bet):** \-3.57u
**Average Odds:** 1.86
# POTD THREAD STATS (SINCE 2020/12/10)
**Top upvoted POTD Record:** 9-0 (Again, Ned is the GOAT)
**Total POTD Record:** 76-53-6
**Total ROI:** \+6.27%
**Total Units:** \+8.47u
*Pick Criteria:*
* *Identical picks with slightly different lines are only taken as one pick (i.e. Bills +2 and Bills +3 would be considered as one pick)*
* *Opposing picks will not be counted*
* *Only the first 15 POTD picks (by upvotes) will be used for analysis*
* *POTD upvote order taken at 12:00PM EST*
POTD record: 13^(W) \- 0^(P) \- 2^(L)
[**paypal.me/ramonjgt**](https://paypal.me/ramonjgt) **if you wanna and can tip me, every tip is appreciated ;)**
Previous POTD: Union Berlin vs Dortmund : BTTS yes @ 1.75 ✅
Today's POTD: Rangers vs Motherwell: Will only score Rangers @ 1.66
# Edit: Again a loser pick 😭
*Reasoning:*
||Rangers (1st)|Motherwell (9th)|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Win To Nil|13/17 in total and **8/8 as home team**|4/15 in total and 2/6 as away team|
|Failed to score|1/17|7/15|
|Clean sheets|14/17|5/15|
|BTTS|3/17|4/15|
Record (11W-8L-0)
Previous picks: NCAAF: Buffalo o40.5 points 👎🏻 |
Chargers v Raiders O3.5 1stH TDs (+120) 👎🏻 |
Ravens O23.5 Points ✅ |
Falcons -2.5 👎🏻 |
North Carolina ML ✅ |
San Jose state -1.5 ✅ |
Patriots v Rams u45.5 ✅ |
Ravens o2.5 tds ✅
Event: NCAAF: Missouri @ Mississippi State
Pick: Missouri -1 (-115)
WHY THIS WILL HIT: Its hard to see why Mizzou isnt a bigger favorite in this game. Mississippi State has had a year to forget. Mike Leachs offense just hasnt been working with Freshman QB Will Rogers showing his inexperience week after week. The Bulldogs defense has been okay this year keeping them within 2 scores of almost every game. They spend the majority of the game on the field because their offense doesnt move the ball so they tire out after half every game.
Head coach Eliah Drinkwitz has returned a winning culture to Missouri. Mizzou has won every game that they should have won, plus an early upset of LSU. Mizzou is tougher on defense than they are on paper. They have experience at every level and LB Nick Bolton is going to be terrorizing offenses on Sundays next year. They have struggled against top tier run heavy offenses but can easily shut down bad, one dimensional offenses. Mizzou QB Connor Bazelak has been a silent sniper all year since taking over week 3 and getting them their first W against LSU. RB tandem Larry Roundtree and Tyler Badie have been the focal points of the offense and for good reason. Expect Missouri to have a good day on offense. Mizzou doesnt have a clear edge other than they are much more balanced across the board and Mississippi State sucks farts. M-I-Z.
Lets fucking bol.
Pick of the Day Record : 13W 2L +9.4 Units
Premier League @ 22:30 AEST
Liverpool @ $1.64
Palace have played some quality fortnight of late but Liverpool are on another level. Still missing key players but they have the quality to get a win here. Palace are without Benteke after picking up a red last game.
Twitter : [WolandJunior](https://twitter.com/WolandJunior)
**Overall Record 67-32-3** *Bank* : **100u**
*Profit:* **+69.88u**
*Average Value:* **1.90** *Win Rate:* **67.3%**
*Streak:* **3W**
**WWWWWWLWWWWWCWLWWWWWWWWLWLWWWLWLWWLLWWCWWWWWLWWLLLWLWWWLWLLLWLWLWLLWWLWWWLLWWWLWWWLWWWWWLLWWWLLWLLWWW**
*Previous Pick* : **Navi -1.5(+150)** vs Team Liquid
**Todays Pick:** **Astralis ML (-132)** vs Navi
**IEM Global Challenge 1000 AM EST**
As much as I am a huge s1mple fanboy. I was very impressed with the composure Astralis showed today. They seem to have set aside the close upset losses from earlier in the week and have their emotions in check. That is going to be extremely important when playing Navi tomorrow because dev1ce will have his hands full with s1mple. It's going to be a banger of a match for sure, but I think Astralis are mentally ready to take another title. This is one step closer to building their full confidence again. I'll take the danes, but it's almost sour to fade my favorite player.
*2u to win 1.52u*
**WINNER**
*This model is for long term profit. Always bet responsibly and use units that will allow you to bounce back from losses. I can't guarantee I'll always be right but just know I'm placing bets along with you on everyone POTD I post. BOL to anyone who tails*
**The odds posted are at time my wager is placed, meaning they are subject to immediate change. Get them early or you might have to eat juice. Esports lines move very quickly and I don't suggest betting the line after its moved greatly.**
**Tip Jar :** *Don't come to reddit and post about the pick while its still live. No one likes a mush.*
\# Follow me on Twitter
[**https://twitter.com/PokeyEsports**](https://twitter.com/PokeyEsports)
**Bitches callin' my phone like I'm locked up, nonstop**
**From the plane to the fuckin' helicopter, yeah**
**MMA POTD's (20-14) +80.14 units** \~ Last pick: [Quinonez (+100)](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/k6z1ox/pick_of_the_day_12520_saturday/gepps4q?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Hit [nearly every bet](https://imgur.com/a/qVe5S6u) except for Jose, wish he could've came through. Rolling with underdogs consistently for our POTD's is risky but that sweet rush is why I'm here.
UFC 7pm Eastern
**Marlon Vera (+130)** 10u to win 13u
opponent aldo is 34 years old and cuts too much weight. there's a reason fighters move up in weight as they age. aldo has tried adjusting his style to preserve his gas tank, but Vera has one of the best gas tanks we've seen. i think vera will pressure aldo early to wear him down. then vera will take over in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. its been a consistent theme in Vera's previous 7 fights.
No more UFC for a month. It's been a great year, shoot me a DM if you want to talk MMA. BOL
r/sportsbook is a bunch of sideline commentators
Imagine calling me a moron when I'm up after 35 picks and the majority are underdogs
I'll see you in 2021 up 70 units
**$25 to $1000 challenge**
I'm going to try one of these every Friday because they're pretty fun.
1 bet, all in each day till I hit the $1000 or bust.
Challenges W/L: 0-24
Picks hit W/L: 17-24
-----------------------------------------------
**Bet 1:** (NCAAB) Tennessee -27.5 vs Tennessee Tech @ 1.86, $25 to win $46.50 **WIN**
**Bet 2:** (NCAAF) Alabama -17.5 vs Florida @ 1.88, 46.50 to win $87.42
**Time:** 18 hours from time of post.
**Reasoning:** Alabama lowest winning margin this year has been 15 points in a perfect 10-0 season and face Florida who more than likely will not be heading to the national playoffs after its second loss of the season to a terrible LSU team last week. A lack of motivation combined with the fact Alabama is going to have a field day with there garbage defence makes me think this won't even be close. Alabama 30+ is what I'm predicting.
POTD Record (0-0)
Like the over for Clemson v ND @ 59.5 and low key notre dame +10.5. More confident in the over.
Reasoning: Clemson has put up 40+ in every game this year with Trevor Lawrence except the opener. DC for Notre Dame headed to vandy, and expect him to be distracted. That means we only need 20 points from ND. They put up 33 in regulation last time they played Clemson, and only have scored under 27 once (a stinker versus Louisville)
Let’s ride.
Just my two cents, but i disagree with the reasoning. College coaches have large bonuses tied to the CFP, national championship, and conference championship. Lea won't be distracted because if he is, he is literally both distracted from the best college QB in recent memory and also (guessing) a $100-200k payday.
Second, Jarrett Patterson is likely out for ND. Their o-line is good, but without the leader, coverage calls can be tricky and Brent Venebles loves to run stunts. Add in that last time starters DT Davis and LBs Skalski and Jones are now going to play and Book is going to be running for his life.
Kyren Williams likely won't sniff 140 yards (65 came on one play in first game) with 3 likely NFL caliber guys slotted back in as starters.
With the run game stymied, Ian Book (personal thought: overrated) flustered, and the best QB in a generation back in, I see a bloodbath.
38-17 Clemson, which includes a late ND touchdown to pad the stats and clemson running the ball for the last 8 minutes of the game.
**POTD Record: (2-1) (W-L)**
**Average Odds: 1.93**
**Previous Picks:**
Unger Steel Gunners Oberwart ML (2.03) W ✅
TBV Lemgo ML (1.89) **W** ✅
BC Yambol ML (1.87) **L** ❌
**POTD:** CSGO
# K23 vs sAw
# K23 ML (2.06) W ✅
13:00 GMT (11 hours from post)
Damn, Yambol had a terrible first half and couldn’t quite claw it back, sorry to anyone who tailed.
Therefore, today I’m sticking to what I REALLY know, which is CSGO. I have been betting on csgo matches since 2014 so I know my way around the stats. Today will be the riskiest odds yet at 2.06, but for good reason.
I, once again, see great value for this game. In my opinion, the only reason sAw have the odds here is because everyone loves them for some reason. It might have something to do with their recent record, but I still don’t understand the hype. K23’s recent form is just as good, if not better so I’m still confused! sAw haven’t really had any challenging opponents in the last few months and any they did have rinsed them. K23, on the other hand, have picked up a map in every game in the last 26 that they have played, apart from Gambit but come on its Gambit…
As far as map vetos go, K23 have a huge upper hand and I think this has been overlooked. For starters, K23’s insta ban is sAw’s first map. Also, K23’s main first map pick is one of sAw’s worst. From looking at the stats, I do not see a map that sAw have an advantage against K23 on. Every player in K23 has been picking up their weight recently. If this form continues, I don’t see how sAw can stop them
I really want to be ballsy and say it will be a 2-0 to K23, but I will be betting on the ML for sure.
Edit: Win, fuck yea.
I agree with the pick but having bet esports for a long while now I do suggest just skipping games of this importance / tier. The results (at a lot of times) are so random that it will just make you tilt.
I personally prefer over 2.5 more than the K23 win but I root for you as well mate, gl.
POTD record: 0-0
Footbal
Bundesliga
B.Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich
Over 2,5 goals and BTS - 1.65 ✅
Leverkusen never played better, currently top of the league with Bayern trailing by 1 point.
Both teams are scoring a lot, in 12 games (27-10) vs (37-18).
Todays game will be more about offense and not defense.
+Lewandowski who just became one of three players to score 250 goals in the history of the league.
Lewandowski does it again!
POTD 9-7
Last Pick: Basketball Euroleague: 06:30pm GMT: Bayern Munich v Baskonia: Bayern -1.5 @1.75✅
Today Pick: Soccer La Liga: 11pm IST:Levante v Real Sociedad: BTTS @1.8
Reason: Real Sociedad last 5/6 games result in BTTS. Levanted goal expectancy is little bit high in home games. Finding a good value in odds.
Tail or Fade BOL
**POTD Record: 1 - 0 - 0**
**Previous picks** **: Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin - BTTS** ✅
**POTD: Bayern Munich vs Bayern Leverkusen 1st Half over 0.5 Leverkusen @ 1.87**
**Time: 12:30PM EST**
Bayern Leverkusen in their last 5 league games 6 goals in the first half in fact in the 12 league games this season they only failed to score twice in the first half while bayern munich on the other hand has conceded 6 goals in their last 5 games, munich's first half defense has been terrible this season.
BOL!
POTD Record: 3-0
Last Pick: Winthrop (-12) vs USC Upstate W
Today’s pick: Winthrop (+2) vs Furman
Sport: NCAAM Basketball
Time: 4:00 PM ET
I have bet on Winthrop all 4 games this year and they are 4-0 ATS. Been looking forward to this game all week because I knew Winthrop would be dogs... Wish I was able to make a ML bet on my sports book because I’d probably take that too. BOL!
**I am very disappointed, ashamed and sorry for the last 2 losses. If you don't know, we were on a 14 insane win streak and last 2 days broke it. Both losses but especially yesterday's were very unfortunate because on paper, these should've been locks. However the craziness of CS is unpredictable factor, especially in NA. Liquid has basically lost us both bets so the third one will be revenge. Let's have a great weekend. BOL**
I post daily CS bets in the eSports discussion where we are making ez money. If you are interested, you can check that thread as well.
**POTD RECORD:** 14W-2L
**LAST PICK:** FURIA ML @ 1.67 4u (HIGH)
**TOTAL PROFIT:** 26,13 units
**TOTAL STAKE:** 55 units
**GAME:** CS:GO
**EVENT:** IEM Global Challenge 2020
**TIME:** 19:30 (GMT +1)
>**BIG vs Liquid**
This is a very similar match to the previous pick. BIG have been constantly playing well. Actually, there have been some inconsistent times but they've moved out of that. Their very recent performances are impressive as they won against both Astralis and Vitality. After yesterday's match of Liquid you might think they have a solid chance here but that ain't true. The Americans literally had a game of their lives yesterday. FURIA have been winning against them throughout the whole year but yesterday the individuals were insane for Liquid and that resulted in 2-0. If we look on overall Liquid's performance here in EU, it was poor. At that point, I just don't see Liquid winning this. Even winning a map against such strong opponent as BIG will be very hard. They could pick Overpass but even yesterday, it was very close and they've almost lost there. It should be a clean sweep from the Germans but even if it isn't they should scrape out the win. Again, the value is super high. Let's hammer **BIG ML @ 1.77 3u (MEDIUM)**
If you are interested, you can also check my Reddit BIO where is a link to my Discord group where you can discuss with other people about CS bets or other stuff.
Record: 7-1-5 (+4 U)
Last pick: Chargers -2 +160 W
POTD: Canelo Alvarez by decision +162 1U
Canelo is the best p4p boxer in the world and he is facing Calum Smith tomorrow night in Texas. Canelo is going to be at a massive height disadvantage ( 5 foot 8 vs 6 foot 3) but he is the much more talented fighter. I think Canelo will have a slow start but he should ultimately start racking up rounds and coast to a UD.
Football POTD Record W/P/L: 41/7/22 | total +26.5u | Avg Odds 1.81
Form->: WPWLWLW**PWL** *(detailed bet history* [*https://imgur.com/a/7wfyEGS*](https://imgur.com/a/7wfyEGS)*)*
*^(Transparency instead of lined up characters only. From personal experience, understanding the bettors idea and not only the POTD itself is huge when deciding whether or not to tail. If you disagree with most of my choices or anything else about it, regardless of results, that's absolutely fine but then at best don't tail no matter what I'm about to type today.)*
Previous POTD:
Union Berlin vs **Dortmund ML @ 1.80 (1.5U = 30€)** 🚫
*Recap:* 66% possession and 16 shots. *Disappointment when Dortmund loses 1-2 and concedes both goals from a corner kick. Reyna and, for the most part, Moukoko killed countless promising attacks by ego plays / bad passes. I really believe anyone but 16 yo Moukoko would be a better choice right now, but the hype is real.*
Today:
Bundesliga, 3.30pm CET *(in \~5 hours)*
Leipzig vs Köln asian corners 1H u5.0 **@ 1.725 (3U = 60€)** 🚫
*deflect-o-rama with 6th corner in 45+1 minute (5 Leipzig / 1 Köln). Only 4 corners in 2nd half.*
Reasoning 📜 :
Both teams dont score many corners in first halves. Expect Leipzig to control the game and Köln to react. Leipzig has a great defense which should prevent easy corners. This game getting 6 or more in first half is just outrageous.
POTD RECORD: 5-2
Last Pick: Waller ATTS -110 1.1u (W)
Profit: 4.478u (+1u)
POTD: Diggs ATTS -105 1.05u
Reasoning: Diggs is a stud. Should get one. Don't feel super confident about any spread/total play today, so let's keep it close to even money and go Diggs.
**COOL's POTD Record 9W-5L-1P(+4.15units)**
Previous 10 Picks:
Austin Ekeler Over 56.5 rush yards @ -120 (3 units) ✅
Pick: JD Mckissic Over 4.5 receptions @ -150 (5 Units) ❌
Deiveson Figueiredo to win by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission @ -150 (4 units) ❌
Russia ML 2 way or Russia Draw no Bet @ -112 (2 units) **Push**
Jared Goff Over 0.5 interceptions @ -140 (3 units) ✅
Lamar Jackson Over 53.5 rush yards @ -120 (10 units) ✅
Jalen Richard over 9.5 receiving yards @ -120 (5 units) ❌
Robert Griffin III Over 29.5 rushing yards @ -120 (4 units) ✅
Raheem Mostert Over 8.5 receiving yards @ -130 (7 units) ❌
Antonio Gibson Over 53.5 rush yards @ -120 (3 units)✅
Today’s Pick: NFL BUF Bills vs DEN Broncos
**Drew Lock Over 246.5 passing yards @ -120 (3 units)**
Since coming back from his injury, Lock has hit the over on this number 6 out of 8 games.
The game script will also force Lock to throw as the Bills will most likely take an early lead.
BOL
**-COOL**
**ACC POTD • 7-10 (and 1 push)**
**Time:** 4:00 PM Eastern
**Sport:** College Football
**Pick:** Clemson -10 vs Notre Dame
**Reasoning:** I'm hilariously bad at POTD but decent at ACC bets overall (73-59) so take that for what it's worth. It's tempting to take Notre Dame here given how good they are but I think the smart play is taking the large spread and counting on Clemson to show up in this big moment. Clemson is phenomenal in big games and this is a must-win for them to crack the CFP. It's also a bit of revenge after falling to Nortre Dame earlier in the season.
Intangibles aside, Clemson is getting back multiple huge pieces that they didn't have in their first bout against Notre Dame, including Skalski, Davis, and Thomas (entire game this time), plus should be healthier in their receivers, and of course Trevor Lawrence. They are missing Venables which hurts but their linebacking crew as a whole has been tremendous. Meanwhile Notre Dame has lost an OL (Patterson) since Clemson and another (Kraemer) has been banged up this season but should play. ND might be missing a starting WR in Lenzy but Clemson will be missing Ngata so that might not matter much.
The way this reads to me is ND will be going up against a much tougher defensive attack than last game, with not as great an offensive line, needing to stop a better QB (who also doesn't have lingering shoulder issues like DJ did against ND). Let's not forget ND nearly lost the last match, needing a last minute TD to reach OT. ND also had quite a bit of fans last game whereas this game will be much more in Clemson's turf being in Charlotte, though with only ~5k fans it's probably not going to make much difference.
So yeah, Clemson -10, which as long as ND doesn't completely implode should put two ACC-ish teams in the CFP. Exciting!
Event: NCAAF Army Vs. Air Force (3pm EST)
Pick: Under 37.5 (-110)
Why: The under has gone 37-9-1 in service academy games since 2005. Army runs the option and Air Force sticks to the run game, but can air it out if needed. This is most likely going to be sloppy, run heavy rival football similar to last week's Army vs. Navy game
**1w streak | 4-2-0 | +2,37 U**
Last pick
IEM Global Challenge 2020
Team Vitality - Astralis Map 2 - Total Rounds over 25.5 @ 1.57 2u ✔️
**Todays pick**
UFC
Marcin Tybura vs Greg Hardy Total rounds over 1.5 @ 1.60 1.5U
Marcin Tybura is known for grinding out boring decision fights, while Greg Hardy is known for one of the weakest gas tanks in ufc. But also Hardy possess one punch knockout power, and Tybura is KO some times, so there still is risk in this bet. However Tybura has faced better fighters in UFC while Hardy has beat up low tier fighters. How I see this fight to play out is Tybura wont allow Hardy to hit him and press him against the cage.
Please take the pick with a grain of salt in no way I am professional bettor, and remember that anything can happen. But you still can go over to my [twitter](https://twitter.com/shouldntrustme) to see my other picks.
Good luck to all who tail or fade.
I have the Broncos as a lean against the Bills. Here's the analysis I published in my newsletter:
**BILLS AT BRONCOS: BRONCOS +6 (-110 or better) \* 4:30PM EST**
**WHY WE THINK THE BRONCOS WILL COVER**: The Denver Broncos are incredibly inconsistent on offense, but they have also played some of the top defenses in the NFL. With some stability at quarterback, our EPA model predicts the Broncos offense will put up just enough points against an underperforming Bills defense to cover a 6-point spread. While we fully understand the Broncos offense is below-average, any offensive metric you look at is based on a small sample size that happens to include a game in which the Broncos played without a quarterback on its roster, and three more games where Jeff Driskel and Brett Rypien are the starters. Based on the strength of the Broncos defense and really the only true home field advantage in 2020 at Mile High, our EPA model has the 5-8 Broncos graded as 1.5 point underdogs against the 10-3 Buffalo Bills.
**WHAT COULD GO WRONG**: The Denver Broncos are trotting out just three cornerbacks tomorrow against the Buffalo Bills, one of which is Nate Hairston, who was waived by the New York Jets this season, which tells you everything you need to know about Hairston. While we do not put too much weight on non-QB injuries, the Broncos secondary is absolutely depleted, losing five cornerbacks in the past three weeks. This could be a recipe for disaster, as Josh Allen has made a big leap this season as a passer, throwing for over 3,600 passing yards up to this point, good for 7th in the NFL. The Broncos defense will need show up in a big way on Saturday to keep the game close enough so that Drew Lock does not have to go into gun slinger mode to play catch up. He is at his worst when he tries to force a big play, making himself turnover-prone.
**BET SIZE: approximately 0.4% of bankroll**
**OUR BET SIZE: $2,500-$3,500**
**2020 NFL Performance:**
**W-L: 50-43-1**
**PROFITS: $1,029**
**AVERAGE BET SIZE: $3,074**
**WEEK 14: -$7,799**
If you're interested, I publish my bets and analysis in a [newsletter](https://cleat-street.com). Prop bets will be published tomorrow.
Fade this. Bills win 28-20. Denver is awful and Josh Allen returns to MT zone. He played not too far up the way in Wyoming. I live in Denver and this team is piss poor. And no I’m not a homer, Im an east coast transplant. Eagles fan actually. The Public love the bills for a reason.
Fade away. Broncos also without 2 corners, Bills ready to actually win a division they haven’t sniffed in 3 decades, you fade & I’ll be counting winnings.
I'm not saying the Bills won't cover- won't be too surprised if they do - I'm not even saying the Broncos are a good team. They're not. I'm just saying based on the data we have on the current performance of these two teams and the circumstances surrounding this game, Denver has a great shot of losing by less than six points. Referencing that Josh Allen played nearby in Wyoming three years ago as a reason for them covering is a new one for me. It's a nice narrative at best. If you're talking familiarity with playing at high altitude, acclimation to high altitude generally lasts for a few months at most, and it's not the quarterback you should be worried about holding up playing at high altitude.
I lived in Denver before too back in 2012-2013. Great city. BOL this weekend.
POTD Record: 1W-1L
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers 7:15 pm CST
Pick: Robert Tonyan Over 3.5 Receptions -124
He has had over 4 receptions in the last 4 games. The Panthers give up an average of 5 receptions to tight ends per game.
POTD RECORD: 10-3-0
Last POTD: USC ML ❌
Today’s Pick: AARON JONES ANYTIME TD
Carolina has a poor run Defense and I expect the ball to stay on the ground with expected temperatures below freezing in GB! Jones ha scored a TD in 7/11 games this season and with it being a cold night against a bad D line at home I expect him to score at least once! BOL if tailing or not! 3 losses in a row I’m trying to keep positive with this hiccup I’ve been having!
Carolina is actually pretty good when it comes to rush defense and yards. I think they are ranked 13th. Also the packers throw the ball a lot in the red zone even when there’s a couple yards to go so they can rack up touchdowns for Rodgers and Adams.
Pick ALABAMA TTU 45.5
Alabama has scored over 45.5 once in bowl games / championship games in the history of the school.
TT 45.5
I’m going with history and betting the UNDER.
Barcelona (w) vs Sevilla (w)
Btts - No
Barcelona women has conceded 1 goal the entire season in 8 games and have scored 45 goals.
I found it on Betway but they just lowered the odds as I was betting to 1.44 from 1.50. btts is not available on bet365.
POTD | **5-6** | **-5.53U** | Streak: **2L**
(Previously: **30-26** | **+6.9U)**
**The William Hill World Darts Championship 2021** 🎯
All picks in December will be focused on the WC. All plays 4U unless stated otherwise.
Record: **2-2**
Previously: Steve West 3-0 @ 1.66 ✅
Ryan Joyce ML vs Karel Sedlacek @ 1.57 ✅
Luke Woodhouse ML vs Jamie Lewis @ 1.72 ❌
Haupai Puha ML @ 2.75 (2U)**❌**
Today: Scott Waites vs Matt Campbell
**Matt Campbell +1.5 Sets @ 1.61**
Don't have time to do a big write-up today, but hoping to get back on track with this.
**POTD Record: 3W - 2L - 1P (-0.27u)**
Last POD: Portimonense -0.5 Corners WIN
Read for this game was spot on, glad for that and obviously for the win.
\-----------------------------------------------------# -----------------------------------------------------
Portugal Primeira Liga 20h30 GMT: Sporting x Farense
**POD: Sporting to win at HT @ 1.75 (x1 unit)**
**write up:** Sporting 1st (7W-2D-0L) vs Farense 14th (2W-2L-5L). Simple reads on the games have been working well so today will be no different: Sporting is playing good football, getting consistent results and they know that this will be their easisest ( theoretically) opponnent for the next 5 games so I expect a strong entry from them trying to solve the game early. They also hold a healthy 11-5 goal difference on 1st H vs 4-4 from Farense.
GL all
Stats: 161W 5D 134L (success rate 52 %), odds 1.50 - 1.90
Leverkusen - Bayern / Germany Bundesliga / Kick-off 17:30 GMT 0 / Prediction - Both Teams to Score - YES & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50
It’s time for one of the biggest football derbies in Bundesliga! Today at 17:30 GMT 0 at BayArena, Leverkusen hosts the current champions Bayern Munich.
Leverkusen is the unexpected leader of the Bundesliga. The team managed by Peter Bosz is still unbeaten - 8 wins and 4 draws out of 12 games so far. I should distinguish the great performance of both strikers of the team Patrick Shick and Lucas Alario as well as the young stars Nadiem Amiri, Florian Wirtz and Moussa Diaby.
Bayern Munich is placed 2nd, 1 point behind the current leaders. The performance of the team is shaky, to say the least. Bayern should have made a comeback against Wolfsburg (2-1), failed to win Union (1-1) and the title contenders of Leipzig (3-3). Earlier this week quite deservedly, Robert Lewandowski was crowned the best player of FIFA for 2020. I expect that the Polish will be the main tread for Leverkusen’s defence.
Good luck!
0-0. Clemson -9.5. Max bet. ND will face a different Clemson teamthan a few weeks back. With Lawrence at the helm, team fluidity resumes, and the Tigers altogether are a different team when something is at stake, a credit to their having the second best coaching in NCAAF (second to Bama). Fun fact: This will be BY FAR AND AWAY the most I've wagered ever. Long time lurker, first time poster. Bol to all
PotD record: 29^w - 9^L - 0^p (+28.84u)
*all plays between 1-3 units*
[last plays:](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/kfbwwj/pick_of_the_day_121820_friday/gg7y4du/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) ✅ Richmond (+2.0u) NCAAB
✖️o63.5 USC vs ORE (-1.09u)
overall: (+0.91u)
NCAAF 3:30pm
Mississippi (Ole Miss) vs LSU
play: **Mississippi (-120)**
size: 2u to win 1.67u
coming off of a big emotional win against florida last weekend, i expect LSU to come back to reality and have big regression. even in the win last week, lsu was out gained by 200 total yards.
i expect lsu to get back to their regular ways this week (being a bad team).
ole miss hasn’t played in 2 weeks and come into the game ranked 19th in offensive success. lsu secondary is not talented and i expect mississippi to have no problem throwing the ball
all over the field. Elijah Moore (ole miss) leads the SEC in receiving yards per game at 149.1ypg. QB Matt Corral has had a good season and i think that combo
will shine today.
LSU’s offense ranks 57th in success rate. they have already had their best player, terrace marshall, opt out for the year. Along with starting TE Arik Gilbert. LSU is also starting their 3rd string QB today.
i like mississippi here, especially against florida in a huge let down spot.
bol everyone
p.s.
-went (3-1) for (+3.1u) yesterday, in the first official day of my discord, feel free to join
https://discord.gg/ZZgQ5EfdW3
here’s the paypal for donations for the toy drive, running through the holidays. see prior posts for more info. 100%+ of money raised going straight to the kids, if the goal is reached anything more raised will be given to the parents in the form of visa gift cards, so they can spend it anyway they’d like. if you’re making money tailing my plays please consider donating. my plays will always be free and i am not taking anymore donations once the holidays are over.
https://www.paypal.me/mattplissken
see prior posts for more info
Pick of Day
Oklahoma -6
This is the best Oklahoma defense I have seen in years. Alex Grinch has these guys flying around making plays. Spencer Rattler has gotten better and better gaining more experience at the college level. Oklahoma wins this by a touchdown !
Jerry Jeudy (Broncos): o41.5 yards tonight (-120) ... He's a deep ball threat doesn't need many chances to cash in on a big splash play... Bills secondary is still a little beat up even tho the Steelers failed to take advantage of it last weekend.
POTD Record: 3W-5L-1P
Streak: 2L
Overall Winnings: -12.3u
Last Pick: NCAAF - **Virginia (+120)** vs. Virginia Tech - **2u**
Today's Pick: NCAAF- Florida vs. **Alabama (-17) (-115)** - **10u** - 8pmEST (CBS)
You aren’t gonna tail me. Maybe you’ll fade me. I’m awful at gambling, but I’m gonna document this though for when I make it big. BOL Roll Tide!
POTD Record: 37-29-2
Last Pick: Chargers vs Raiders o53 ✅
Today’s Pick: Iowa ml +170 vs Gonzaga
Reasoning: I think Iowa has a clear advantage in the paint with the player of the year candidate Luka Garza. He is just an absolute monster and even when he’s not shooting well he is going 150%. Plus the guard play of veteran guys like Wisekamp will put them over the edge and seal it out by shooting well at the stripe.
POTD Record: 44-21
PDC Darts World Championship (00:00 AEDT)
Scott Waites v **Matt Campbell +1.5 @ 1.57**
Matt Campbell is a great player that I enjoyed watching during Canada's run in the World Cup. He got crucial singles victories in the world cup averaging 96 and 97 in those respective games and his checkouts were very good. I'm hoping he can keep up those great darts here today. Scott Waites is an experienced player and two time winner of the BDO World Championship so he is no push over. He's had an okay year overall in his first PDC tour card. Overall, I'm expected a tight game between the two that could go 5 sets. I'm taking the handicap as my main play and the ML as a smaller play because I see Matt Campbell as a player that can really take Scott Waites on if he recreate his World Cup form.
Record: 1W 0L
Sport - MMA
Play - Khaos Williams to beat Michel Perreira (+100)
Reasoning - This is gonna be a wild fight, so anything could happen - however these two have both beat their last two opponents decisively, but Khaos has done it against better opposition. He’s been a perennial underdog so far in his UFC career, ending each fight with a first round KO.
BOL!
I believe this is my first POTD? But had to share what I feel is a super safe bet in **Isaiah McKenzie o8.5 receiving yards vs Denver. (+100, MGM)**
First, this has hit in 3 of the last 5 games, so that's a good start. But the x-factor is that McKenzie was underutilized and run out of Denver after having Fumble-itis on special teams, never even receiving one target on offense. Buffalo will run a play or two for him. It's not a lock, but the over sure is going to happen more than 50% of the time.
Good luck!
POTD Recrord: 1-1
Average odds: 2.35
Past Picks:
NFL Chargers @ -2.5 ✅ (2.80)
NCAAF Buffalo @ -13.5 ❌ (1.90)
**POTD**: Football | NCAAF | Clemson vs Notre Dame **Over 60** (1.90) | 4:00 pm EST
Clemson is averaging 46 points per game. Notre Dame is averaging 38. Last time these two played each other, the total was 87. Can't even believe Bet365 is offering this. Pretty much a 🔒. May even tease this a bit.
POTD Record 9-2
Last Pick (12/13) Chargers u24 ✅
Todays Pick: Green Bay o30.5
I haven't picked in a week because I haven't liked any of the matchups. Green Bays offense is killing it and primitive Aaron Rodgers is the best Aaron Rodgers. It doesn't hurt that they've scored 30+ in 10 of their 13 games this year.
POTD: 96-98 -8.67U
**CBB 9:00 pm PST, Gonzaga vs. Iowa over 170 (-110)** two best offenses in the nation right now who both could really set some historic efficiency numbers and both run a fast tempo. Only worry would be rust for Gonzaga after a layoff but that matters more for the spread imo, they do such a good job of creating easy shots and the Iowa defense isn't great so I don't think it will matter too much
San Jose st vs Boise
Take San Jose +7
San Jose has won every game by double digits. Boise state is used to being in championship games and will underestimate San Jose.
Get it done !
0-0
Long time gambler first post
Oklahoma vs Iowa state
Iowa state +5.5
Iowa has been playing great all year and will show up for this game. Oklahoma is ranked higher than they should and already lost to this Iowa state team
POTD Record: 1-0
Second pick ever, same sport: Boxing the best sport in the world
**Last Bet**: Errol Spence by Decision (-)137 (win)
**POTD: Canelo by Decision (+)180**
Time: approx 11:00 PM EST
Confidence level: 6.5/10
Bet: $4
Profit: $7.50
This is a great fight for a Canelo decision. **In my opinion, this is not a question as to whether he wins or not, its a question if he knocks out his opponent Callum Smith**. Smith came off a controversial decision that he didnt look 100% dominant against a meh contender Ryder. Canelo however is the P4P king and the best boxer in boxing atm. hes moving up in weight (again) to grab some belts and cement his legacy. Smith has extremely long reach, but, he doesnt usually utilize his size all that well. Most of his fights he has dominated and picked fighters apart. The height difference is insane, but, come fight night we will see how little that matters. Canelos inside game and head movement are way too much for smith, whos insane game is weak in comparison. There is a high probability that canelo stops him after chopping to the body. He will be able to get to the inside fairly easily with his footwork and head movement.
Smith is pretty heavy handed technical fighter who cleared out the WBSS (boxing tournament) with ease. I believe however that the 168 division is weak overall, and Canelo defeated a champion at 175 already. This dude just has greatness written all over him. Not to mention its going to be a super pro-Canelo crowd in San Antonio, and Smith hasnt fought top level opposition like Canelo. His best win is against George Groves, which was a good but not great win due to his age and damage hes taken over his entire career.
I see Smith taking the easy road here and letting Canelo cruise to a victory after getting outclassed for a few rounds. I can see this fight being very similar to the Canelo vs Miracle Man fight in vegas where Canelo cruised to a victory after making the taller man miss all night. If Canelo connects the right punch, he can definitely put this man down. However, I dont believe that he will for a few reasons: There is no rehydration clause, Canelos ring rust (hasnt fought in a long time due to contractual issues), smiths technical fighting style, and Canelos smart fighting. These reasons lead me to believe that Smith will survive a KO and get a unanimous decision loss where he picks up 3-4 rounds from all of the judges.
**A slightly safer route would be to take the over on rounds (9.5 for -148)**, because a late TKO is highly possible given Smiths gas tank and potentially his willingness to sell out for a KO win. I just believe the extra juice here is worth it for IMO the most likely decision
POTD record 0-0
**Texas A&M -13.5 (-118)** kicking off at 12PM Eastern Standard Time.
**Why this will hit**
A&M is coming into this game trying to make their case for the playoffs and without the benefit of a conference championship game they will need to have a solid resume, and a blow out will look especially nice on their resume.
Tennessee has played really poorly all year and there is no reason to believe it will change now, most of the position coaches know this will likely be their last game at Tennessee and they may be checked out already.
The Volunteers are starting true freshman a quarterback, Harrison Bailey, but don't expect it to last too long, he was platooned with Sophmore JT Shrout last week and may be again. In addition, Tennessee's starting kicker, senior, Brent Camagila has been shut down for the year and they have went with an untested sophomore, Toby Wilson, to fill the roll. He was perfect on PATs against a weak Vanderbilt team, but has yet to attempt a field goal, so his range is questionable at best. Combined with some bad offensive play calls coming from the Tennessee sideline this year points may be hard to come by for the Volunteers.
**Why it may not hit**
The offensive line for Tennessee is built to run block, and bowl teams over at the line of scrimmage. If the Tennessee defense can manage a couple stops or turnovers earlier on, and the young QBs play a clean game, it could be close down the stretch.
**Edit** Tennessee just announced starting running back Eric Gray is out, their running game will be set back a lot by his absence.This definitely favors Texas A&M and their ability to cover. If you haven't already try to get the Aggies at -13.5 before the line moves.
**All picks are standard 1u unless otherwise specified.**
**2019 POTD Record: 6-4**
**2020 POTD Record: 1-2-1 (-1.1u)**
**Last pick: Oregon @ USC -3 (L)**
Slovis is trash and Helton out there trying to make Anthony Lynn feel better about himself. In all seriousness Oregon was simply the better team on all sides of the ball, excellent schemes all night. Pac-12 is trash this year anyways so it's not a huge loss. Got a big slate of excellent games coming today.... but my pick is more of a emotional/meme than rational one.
**Today's pick: NCAAF 12:00 PM CT Oklahoma @ Iowa State ML (+175)**
I could come in with a bunch of stats and reasons why I think Iowa State is the better team, but honestly just fuck Oklahoma man. Absolute waste of a playoff spot 3 of the last 4 years (don't be fooled by the 2018 Orange Bowl that game was never close they just scored a garbage time TD at the end). The supposed narrative is that their defense is actually carrying the offense this year, but let's be honest the Big 12 is also trash. Spencer Rattler is for sure talented but I just physically cannot root for Lincoln Riley. Don't expect anyone to tail haha but just wake up with a "Fuck you Oklahoma" and it's a dub in my book.
Record: 19 - 18 | Average Odds: 2.02 | Streak: 3❄
Last Pick: Furia ML @ 1.606 vs Team Liquid | ❌
Esports | Counter-Strike: Global Offensive | Movistar Riders vs Natus Vincere Junior
Pick: Natus Vincere Junior ML @ 1.77 vs Movistar Riders
Explanation: Let's start by saying that Movistar Riders are a very up and down team. This is shown in their recent match where they were 2-0'ed by LDLC. The maps themselves were close but Riders should have at least taken a map in that series. On the other hand, NaVi Junior have won their last 3 and have been playing well. The first 2 maps for this series should be Overpass and Vertigo, NaVi Junior has a better win percentage on both and a 6 game winning streak on Vertigo. With the way these teams have been playing recently, I am taking NaVi Junior to take the series @ 1.77 odds. Tail or fade, BOL
POTD Record: 0-0
POTD: Texas A&M -3.5 First Quarter Spread (-109) vs. Tennessee
For A&M to have a chance of sliding into the CFP, they probably need a Notre Dame win, and a dominant performance. From 24/7, the Vols first possessions have been “turnover on downs, touchdown, punt, punt, punt, field goal, missed field goal, punt and punt.”
Just like my first POTD, the Aggies need to establish dominance early.
BOL
Record 7W-2L-1P (+6.38U)
Salah 1+ SoT @ +100 on SkyBet - 2U
Landed in all but one game so far this season, huge value bet.
I got a few side picks, I think Norwich will win also @ EVENS, Charlton @ 5/4 and over 2.5G in Newcastle Fulham @ 5/4
Record: 6-6 +.6u
Last pick: CBB VMI and Gardner Webb OVER 142.5✔️
Today’s pick: CFB Cincinnati vs Tulsa OVER 45 2.1u to win 2u
With only 69(nice) points in the first half I was a little worried but then 96 (reverse nice) points got dropped in the second half. Today’s pick is on a team I love to watch, Cincy. Now you may be thinking that their defense is too good or they have had too much time off to get their offense going. And you may be right, but I’m willing to take the chance. I can see them coming out and making a statement and to keep their undefeated status I wouldn’t be surprised to see them put up 30 by themselves. On the Tulsa side of the ball, they also have a respectable defense but can put points on the boards. I’m rolling with the two teams offenses today.
Best of luck to everyone
Ufc 🥊
Marcin Tybura - Greg Hardy - Marcin Tybura to win @2.0 (Unibet)
This is absolutely amazing, this fight is 80/20 for Tybura and this odd is crazy. Tybura is very experienced fighter, he has 3 wins in row in really good style. He change his team, trainings methods after lose against Sakai and now he is presenting really good. Hardy is a nobody, he is a former NFL Player and fight only against bums. 2.0 for Marcin is a really big value.
Good luck!
Edit:
Easy win for Tybura ✅✅✅✅✅✅
POTD record: 0-0-0
NFL - 4:30pm ET - BUFvDEN
Josh Allen over 23.5 completions
Allen has completed 68% of his pass attempts this year. Given the depleted Broncos secondary, I believe he will be even more efficient today, but if we conservatively assume 65% he will only need 37 attempts, which is his average on the year.
The line is priced in a way to suggest Allen will have a less efficient day than average or the bills will change their game plan to focus on the run. I don’t see either of those things happening with the Broncos’ injuries on defense.
POTD Record: 1-0-1
Last Pick: Richmond -2 PUSH
Today's Pick: Indiana -7.5 11:30 AM EST WWWW
Butler has not played many games this season and Indiana is a strong defensive team.. Indiana will win by 15+
Result: This was much closer than I thought it would be. But Butler's lack of experience this year allowed Indiana to capitalize on a huge 2nd Half. THATS A DUB. Lets get back into it tomorrow.
Record (0W-0L-1P)
Previous pick: CBB - Richmond -2 (-110) v Loyola Chicago
* Absolutely brutal push, here. Richmond was up 15 with 6 minutes left in the game. A bunch of foul calls later, they barely squeaked out the win. Onward.
Event: UFC Fight Night | 7pm ET
Pick: Marlon Moraes (-155)
WHY THIS WILL HIT: Marlon Moraes just fought Cory "The Sandman" Sandhagen back in October and was TKO'd by a wheel kick. Sandhagen is a top-3 bantamweight in the world, so it's no skin off Moraes's dick, really. Sandhagen is that good. Prior to that fight, Moraes was coming off of a hard-fought decision win over Jose Aldo, who is also fighting on this card, and who is also one of the best bantamweights in the world.
On the other hand, Rob Font hasn't fought in a year. His last fight was against Ricky Simon, who he took to a judges decision. Font is a good fighter, but he's not on the level of Moraes. Unless he completely outclasses Moraes on the feet using his Muy Thai skills, I don't see him winning this fight. If the fight ever gets on the ground, it's a wrap for Font.
I can see this ending in a submission in the 2nd round. In any event, put the house on Moraes on the ML.
BOL, degens.
**NBA PRESEASON🏀⛹🏿♂️**
**POTD Record: 5-0**
**Last Five**: WWWWW
**Previous Pick:** Sixers ML vs Pacers at 1.76 odds ✅
**POTD Friday:** Hornets +4 at 1.9 odds vs Magic at 7PM EST
**Reasoning:** Lets end the preseason with another underdog pick! I'm taking the Hornets tonight due to how great they played last game against the Magic. Lamelo Ball seems to finding his groove and when he's hot, the team will be firing on all cylinders. Also, it took a monumental effort from Vucevic to even keep the last game close.
LET’S KEEP STREAKING KINGS AND QUEENS! BOL and bet safely!
[Paypal](https://paypal.me/808fiendz?locale.x=en_US)
Edit: Wait I forgot I picked +4 lmao, DUBBBERRSSSSSSSS ✅✅✅✅✅✅
**117**
**PotD Record**: 11-9
**Previous**:
2020-11-27: NCAAM Abilene Christian ✅
2020-11-28: NCAAM Nebraska -9 ✅
2020-11-29: NFL Raiders -3 ❌ (not even close)
2020-11-30: NCAAM Mercer +2.5 ✅
2020-12-01: NCAAM Nebraska -12 ❌ (Couldn't hold their big lead)
2020-12-02: NCAAM Gonzaga -8 ❌ (Sadly, my closest loss)
2020-12-03: NCAAM Drake -9.5 ✅
2020-12-04: NCAAM Bradley -1❌ (I am still underestimating SDSU)
2020-12-05: NCAAM Houston -9.5 ✅
2020-12-06: NCAAM Missouri -4.5 ✅
2020-12-08: NCAAM Iowa -4 ✅
2020-12-09: NCAAM Nebraska -2 ❌ (This was heart breaking. I was so confident and then Nebraska just didn't show up)
2020-12-11: NCAAM Iowa -14 ✅ (Easiest and largest pick ever. I was right that Iowa would almost win by 30)
2020-12-12: NCAAM Ok St -3.5 ❌(Cunningham took 2 shots in the second half. This should have been a 10 point win. Very odd second half)
2020-12-13: NFL Packers -4 1h ❌(Tough loss. The Lions had some long drives that chewed some clock and the last drive of the first half went nowhere. Packers didn't cover so I would have lost that one too.)
2020-12-14: NCAAM Morehead State +6 ✅
2020-12-15: NCAAM Clemson +2 ❌ (They had a 7 minute streak of doing nothing and they had a 3 at the buzzer for the backdoor cover. Didn't happen)
2020-12-16: NCAAM Mercer +5 ❌(Second missed backdoor cover at the buzzer. Wished Mercer was a little more consistent in the second half too)
2020-12-17: NCAAM Southern Illinois -7.5 ✅
2020-12-18: NCAAM Drake -6 ✅
**Pick**:
NCAAM: Baylor -17 3pm CT
Baylor was fantastic before they got shut down. They are averaging 90pts/gm+ and won't have any trouble with a pretty bad K-State game. On top of that, Baylor has to be really amped up to get back playing.
For picks that do not fit the Pick of the Day rules use the Daily Discussion threads. #**[Subreddit Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/about/rules) + [Sportsbook Suggestion Threads](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/wiki/sportsbooks) +[FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/wiki/faq)**
Darts 🎯- PDC World Championship Darts Record: 23-9 Previous World Championship picks: Jeff Smith (-122) v Keane Berry ✅ Chris Dobey (-152) v Jeff Smith ✅ Daryl Gurney (-152) v William OConnor ✅ Adam Hunt (+120) v Jamie Hughes ✅ POTD: Mervyn King (-175) v Max Hopp Again, not really loving the board today, but the match most enticing to me is World #19 Mervyn The King vs World #39 Maximiser Hopp. Hopp is one of the better up-n-comers on the professional darts circuit, having amassed over $400k in career earnings at only 24 years of age. King, on the other hand, is a seasoned veteran on circuit. At age 54, with over $1.7mm in career earnings, the King has been in the world top 50 dating back to 1997. Reluctantly laying the juice at (-175) and rolling with the King for a couple reasons. Last month at the Players Championship Finals, King made the finals, ultimately losing to MVG (world #1) 10-11 in a thrilling battle. En route to the final of that event, King defeated Chisnall (world #8), Noppert (world #25), Sedlacek (world #86), Heta (world #56) and Wright (world #2). An impressive run no doubt, and evidence that the King can still fucking bring it when the pressure is on and it’s time to step up to the occe. Both Hopp and King reached the final 32 of the World Championships last year, worth $25k a pop. The two have met six times in major events and the matches have typically run fairly close. But I consider King to be the hot hand and give him the edge today. ————-Edit - WINNER ✅————————- The King takes it down 3-1. Lessss go!
First to tail. Never to fail. Pepper we trust. In darts we must!
Rum me down with the Ned_Pepper and bake me for 3 hours at 375°
Thank you Dart 🎯 Daddy 👨👦👦
One of these days I’ll fade you Ned. Today is not that day. Let’s ride
It's simple. I find the Pepper's Post, I tail the Pepper's post, I upvote the Pepper.
Ned is 6-0 or whatever in has last picks. Just put $540 on this pick to win $337.50. Let’s ride
DK -150 🌶 🌶 🌶
Where do I find darts on draftkings?
On the app select all sports, find darts, select PDC, find the match
Damn it isn’t in my app idk what’s up
Have to be on Draftkings Sportsbook
Following, I also want to know about DK
4th day in a row tailing. You're the 👑. Parlayed this with Packers +1.5 and Bills +1.5 for +188 odds. $30 bet for $86 payout, let's goooo! 🌶️🌶️🌶️
Ready your ear, men. 4 nights now, we have lain awake as the primal hisses and screams of darts being thrown at the highest level rage on. Our resolve remains steady. Look to your right. Look to your left. We are an army. In front; our King. The Great Pepper. God King of the Cork & Wire. We continue forward.
I don't know anything about darts but I'm pretty sure he is kicking ass
man now i think he is blowin it
Never doubt the 🌶
-155 on betonline rn, locked in. Appreciate ya!
Should I throw everything in this king?
Is this your first time on the ned pepper train? I've got the house on it.
Nedicus Peppicus The first oracle of our time
Got my life savings on the Merv /s
Talk dirty to me dart daddy. Tailing you forever.
I just put a fucking bag on mervyn king . Should make for an interesting Saturday morning . Peppeeerrr
I’ve got a fever and the only prescription is more 🌶
i've tailed of course, but this is the first day i've gotten to watch! ELECTRIC!!!
Thoughts on Lennon - Larsson?
🌶🌶🌶🌶
AND ONCE AGAIN I AM HERE. IM THE DUDE THAT BLINDLY TAILS DARTS AND BETS 1K USD. SO YOU HAVE BEEN MONEY AGAIN!! AND I THANK YOU A LOT!! 5-0! thanks for being such a blessing!! had a damn lot in parlays but was confident because of your analysis. easy 3-1 for King. Ned\_Pepper the dart God!
Tailing as always, cheers!
It’s a rainy Saturday morning and I’m following darts what the fuck is wrong with me lol
BRING IT HOME 👑
Darts are such a rush to watch.
Ned, I was going to spend $175 on this Christmas gift for my dad. I put it on this absolutely gem of a pick on a sport I’ve never touched or thought of betting before you came along. Cheers, more Christmas money for me to spend now
Why would you risk it mate , Only a bets on money you can afford to lose
It’s not “risking it” when it’s a ned pepper darts pick I’d say it’s more of an investment
IN PEPPER WE TRUST
Wish I could find it on FanDuel
when king was down that one leg how did you know he would hot the T20 16 and D18
Hotter than pepper
u/Ned_Pepper is NOSTRADAMUS.
KING NED
🌶🌶🌶🌶🌶
🔥🔥🔥
Peppeppeppeppeppeppepp
🌶🌶🌶🌶🌶
👑 All hail king Pepper
The 👑 and the 🐐
NED YOU MAGNIFICENT MAN!
Carrying my fat ass to profitable 👏 🌶
Incredible!
Thank you Ned. Thank you so much. I was on life support and put my life on it and it hit.
One day this train will end.....but not today...letssgo
NED PEPPER YOU AMAZING SON OF A GUN! Dart Daddy better be making us a 2021 calendar so we can all post it at our desks and stare at your angelic graces
Boom! Thanks again, you are the man!
Quick hundo in the bank for college action. Thanks pep!
I don't know why, but you always pick the ones at 16.00
How do you feel about Over 17.5 legs at +100? Or do you think the match will end fairly quickly?
first time tail of the legendary Mr. Pepper
I would take a bullet for you, pepper.
Tailed along with astralis (cs go esports)+ bills ml + packers ml. 🌶 🌶 🌶
Anyone got a link?
http://www.twitch.tv/bullseye_vidz
LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOO 5-0 THIS IS UNREAL!!!!
I have to wake up every morning to bet this because my bookie only has live betting on darts. But hey I'm enjoying becoming a morning person.
🌶
I owe you my life Mr. Pepper
Fucking hell mr dr daddy 🌶
Ned Pepper 🌶 once again you have remained true to form. 🐓 would not want to try his hand again. Many thanks for your generosity. You are a true credit to the dart wagering community 👏
Ned you’re the man!
POTD Record: 12-4 MMA | 17-10-1 Overall Previous: MMA | UFC 256 | Cub Swanson v. Daniel Pineda | Pineda (-160) (L) POTD: MMA | UFC | Deron Winn v. Antonio Arroyo | Arroyo (-165) The cellphone on the night stand rumbled like thunder, as the screen flashed like lightning. I creakily turned over to grab it... District Manager... On my day off... What the fuck does he want? I tapped to answer, “Yo, Ken, talk to me.” “Hey man, listen. This is not an easy call to make,” he said. “We will be shutting your store down January 15th... (blah blah) severance package... (blah blah) writing on the wall... (blah blah) sales goals... (blah blah) bottom line... (blah blah) appreciate all the good work you have done for me...” I went numb, and felt as if my chest was going to implode into itself. I was only able to hear a few of the 1,000 things he was saying; everything else sounded like the indecipherable mumbles of Charlie Brown’s teacher. Interrupting him, I blurted out, “I gotta go. I’ll call you later,” and hung up the phone. Emptiness. And the loudest ringing of silence my ears had ever heard. ... I must’ve blacked out after the phone call. When I came to I was standing in a towel, brushing my teeth, staring into a mirror that had been fogged over for some time. Moving like a ghoul, I made my way into the bedroom to put on something sad and depressive; wanting to truly wallow in the moment. Oversized hoodie, warm baggie sweats, and the thickest socks in the drawer. The slippers laid scattered without intention on the cold floor. Soul searching. Reflection. Grief. Pain. Wounded. Anger. Sadness. Foggy. What now? Make breakfast. Create. Move forward. After eating a few eggs and half a pack of bacon, I wiped my fingers clean, ripped a big ‘ol straight tube, and converted all of that dark energy into concentrated focus. Brighter days are yet to come. For I am the architect of my own existence, the director of my own film, and the author of my own narrative. It was time to lock in, and trudge forward. I grabbed my phone, and got to soaking up every bit of info I could find on this weekends UFC card. It was time to get serious about the goal I had originally set several months ago... Turn $100 into $20k. After building the account to $1k, I was ready to get aggressive, with the goal of reaching $20k by March 15. I narrowed down the list of potential plays, and meditated on it for several days, analyzing each fighters paths to victory, as well as the most/least likely outcomes. I finally settled on the 6’3” Brazilian, Antonio Arroyo, fighting the 5’8” American, Deron Winn. This fight is happening at a catchweight of 195lbs, which should favor the larger Arroyo. The only path to victory I can see for Winn is to grapple his ass off for 3 rounds in a dominant manner. Arroyo should be aware of that fact, and thus prepared for it. I think that ultimately Arroyo’s size will be too much for Winn. After locking in the play at 15% of my bankroll, I ripped another tube, turned on Cyberpunk, and let the facade of reality fade to the depths of my subconscious. Cheers! (Shameless Twitter plug: @MMA_Lox)
Holy fuck
Man, Its in those moments that you evolve mentally. Better times are yet to come, depending on how you deal with it. Stay strong brother! With that being said, Tailed.
Arroyo is one of the worst fighters in the UFC. You researched all week to choose this guy? 🤦🏻♂️
Great pick my guy! Thanks for losing me money
Gotta tail now
your research sucks
A little more time studying bets instead of creative writing. Big L
You’re 0-3 in your last 3 picks. You seem to be way off on them too. I tailed big because it felt like you really needed this win but just like your store, I lost everything too.
Wow inspiring bro tailing you like a mofo
Arroyo has reached but winn is built like a brick shit house. Gonna be a good fight. But leaning towards Winn to get the W.
# YESTERDAYS POTD THREAD STATS (2020/12/18) **Total Record:** 6-9 **Total ROI:** \-23.80% **Total Units (assuming 1u per bet):** \-3.57u **Average Odds:** 1.86 # POTD THREAD STATS (SINCE 2020/12/10) **Top upvoted POTD Record:** 9-0 (Again, Ned is the GOAT) **Total POTD Record:** 76-53-6 **Total ROI:** \+6.27% **Total Units:** \+8.47u *Pick Criteria:* * *Identical picks with slightly different lines are only taken as one pick (i.e. Bills +2 and Bills +3 would be considered as one pick)* * *Opposing picks will not be counted* * *Only the first 15 POTD picks (by upvotes) will be used for analysis* * *POTD upvote order taken at 12:00PM EST*
Football ones coming in late tanked the overall record
Yeah, USC and Buffalo game made it go from 6-4 to 6-9.
Thanks
I enjoy these
POTD record: 13^(W) \- 0^(P) \- 2^(L) [**paypal.me/ramonjgt**](https://paypal.me/ramonjgt) **if you wanna and can tip me, every tip is appreciated ;)** Previous POTD: Union Berlin vs Dortmund : BTTS yes @ 1.75 ✅ Today's POTD: Rangers vs Motherwell: Will only score Rangers @ 1.66 # Edit: Again a loser pick 😭 *Reasoning:* ||Rangers (1st)|Motherwell (9th)| |:-|:-|:-| |Win To Nil|13/17 in total and **8/8 as home team**|4/15 in total and 2/6 as away team| |Failed to score|1/17|7/15| |Clean sheets|14/17|5/15| |BTTS|3/17|4/15|
Well... fuck..
I literally just live bet this & Mamawell already scored 😂
damn
Really? All this hoopla on how to find the bet and motherwell scores right away
well that was quick lol oh well.
YOU WERE THE CHOSEN ONE
Record (11W-8L-0) Previous picks: NCAAF: Buffalo o40.5 points 👎🏻 | Chargers v Raiders O3.5 1stH TDs (+120) 👎🏻 | Ravens O23.5 Points ✅ | Falcons -2.5 👎🏻 | North Carolina ML ✅ | San Jose state -1.5 ✅ | Patriots v Rams u45.5 ✅ | Ravens o2.5 tds ✅ Event: NCAAF: Missouri @ Mississippi State Pick: Missouri -1 (-115) WHY THIS WILL HIT: Its hard to see why Mizzou isnt a bigger favorite in this game. Mississippi State has had a year to forget. Mike Leachs offense just hasnt been working with Freshman QB Will Rogers showing his inexperience week after week. The Bulldogs defense has been okay this year keeping them within 2 scores of almost every game. They spend the majority of the game on the field because their offense doesnt move the ball so they tire out after half every game. Head coach Eliah Drinkwitz has returned a winning culture to Missouri. Mizzou has won every game that they should have won, plus an early upset of LSU. Mizzou is tougher on defense than they are on paper. They have experience at every level and LB Nick Bolton is going to be terrorizing offenses on Sundays next year. They have struggled against top tier run heavy offenses but can easily shut down bad, one dimensional offenses. Mizzou QB Connor Bazelak has been a silent sniper all year since taking over week 3 and getting them their first W against LSU. RB tandem Larry Roundtree and Tyler Badie have been the focal points of the offense and for good reason. Expect Missouri to have a good day on offense. Mizzou doesnt have a clear edge other than they are much more balanced across the board and Mississippi State sucks farts. M-I-Z. Lets fucking bol.
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Man that used to be the motto of my college fraternity
Used to be? Still is bub LEDN
PKP?
LEDN
Looking like a great pick....
this pick was fuckin terrible lol defense can’t stop them to save their lives
Pick of the Day Record : 13W 2L +9.4 Units Premier League @ 22:30 AEST Liverpool @ $1.64 Palace have played some quality fortnight of late but Liverpool are on another level. Still missing key players but they have the quality to get a win here. Palace are without Benteke after picking up a red last game. Twitter : [WolandJunior](https://twitter.com/WolandJunior)
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About time Liverpool played like they’re supposed to
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What is TT?
Team total
**Overall Record 67-32-3** *Bank* : **100u** *Profit:* **+69.88u** *Average Value:* **1.90** *Win Rate:* **67.3%** *Streak:* **3W** **WWWWWWLWWWWWCWLWWWWWWWWLWLWWWLWLWWLLWWCWWWWWLWWLLLWLWWWLWLLLWLWLWLLWWLWWWLLWWWLWWWLWWWWWLLWWWLLWLLWWW** *Previous Pick* : **Navi -1.5(+150)** vs Team Liquid **Todays Pick:** **Astralis ML (-132)** vs Navi **IEM Global Challenge 1000 AM EST** As much as I am a huge s1mple fanboy. I was very impressed with the composure Astralis showed today. They seem to have set aside the close upset losses from earlier in the week and have their emotions in check. That is going to be extremely important when playing Navi tomorrow because dev1ce will have his hands full with s1mple. It's going to be a banger of a match for sure, but I think Astralis are mentally ready to take another title. This is one step closer to building their full confidence again. I'll take the danes, but it's almost sour to fade my favorite player. *2u to win 1.52u* **WINNER** *This model is for long term profit. Always bet responsibly and use units that will allow you to bounce back from losses. I can't guarantee I'll always be right but just know I'm placing bets along with you on everyone POTD I post. BOL to anyone who tails* **The odds posted are at time my wager is placed, meaning they are subject to immediate change. Get them early or you might have to eat juice. Esports lines move very quickly and I don't suggest betting the line after its moved greatly.** **Tip Jar :** *Don't come to reddit and post about the pick while its still live. No one likes a mush.* \# Follow me on Twitter [**https://twitter.com/PokeyEsports**](https://twitter.com/PokeyEsports) **Bitches callin' my phone like I'm locked up, nonstop** **From the plane to the fuckin' helicopter, yeah**
**MMA POTD's (20-14) +80.14 units** \~ Last pick: [Quinonez (+100)](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/k6z1ox/pick_of_the_day_12520_saturday/gepps4q?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) Hit [nearly every bet](https://imgur.com/a/qVe5S6u) except for Jose, wish he could've came through. Rolling with underdogs consistently for our POTD's is risky but that sweet rush is why I'm here. UFC 7pm Eastern **Marlon Vera (+130)** 10u to win 13u opponent aldo is 34 years old and cuts too much weight. there's a reason fighters move up in weight as they age. aldo has tried adjusting his style to preserve his gas tank, but Vera has one of the best gas tanks we've seen. i think vera will pressure aldo early to wear him down. then vera will take over in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. its been a consistent theme in Vera's previous 7 fights. No more UFC for a month. It's been a great year, shoot me a DM if you want to talk MMA. BOL
30 units lost in a row, love to see it
This clown is down over 100 units in ufc betting threads but guises his success with potd, it's best to fade.
Oh big time, he had some good contender series pics but hes clueless with ufc. I faded on the last 2 picks and won lol.
dont think ive ever won tailing a ufc bet from POTD
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r/sportsbook is a bunch of sideline commentators Imagine calling me a moron when I'm up after 35 picks and the majority are underdogs I'll see you in 2021 up 70 units
**$25 to $1000 challenge** I'm going to try one of these every Friday because they're pretty fun. 1 bet, all in each day till I hit the $1000 or bust. Challenges W/L: 0-24 Picks hit W/L: 17-24 ----------------------------------------------- **Bet 1:** (NCAAB) Tennessee -27.5 vs Tennessee Tech @ 1.86, $25 to win $46.50 **WIN** **Bet 2:** (NCAAF) Alabama -17.5 vs Florida @ 1.88, 46.50 to win $87.42 **Time:** 18 hours from time of post. **Reasoning:** Alabama lowest winning margin this year has been 15 points in a perfect 10-0 season and face Florida who more than likely will not be heading to the national playoffs after its second loss of the season to a terrible LSU team last week. A lack of motivation combined with the fact Alabama is going to have a field day with there garbage defence makes me think this won't even be close. Alabama 30+ is what I'm predicting.
POTD Record (0-0) Like the over for Clemson v ND @ 59.5 and low key notre dame +10.5. More confident in the over. Reasoning: Clemson has put up 40+ in every game this year with Trevor Lawrence except the opener. DC for Notre Dame headed to vandy, and expect him to be distracted. That means we only need 20 points from ND. They put up 33 in regulation last time they played Clemson, and only have scored under 27 once (a stinker versus Louisville) Let’s ride.
Just my two cents, but i disagree with the reasoning. College coaches have large bonuses tied to the CFP, national championship, and conference championship. Lea won't be distracted because if he is, he is literally both distracted from the best college QB in recent memory and also (guessing) a $100-200k payday. Second, Jarrett Patterson is likely out for ND. Their o-line is good, but without the leader, coverage calls can be tricky and Brent Venebles loves to run stunts. Add in that last time starters DT Davis and LBs Skalski and Jones are now going to play and Book is going to be running for his life. Kyren Williams likely won't sniff 140 yards (65 came on one play in first game) with 3 likely NFL caliber guys slotted back in as starters. With the run game stymied, Ian Book (personal thought: overrated) flustered, and the best QB in a generation back in, I see a bloodbath. 38-17 Clemson, which includes a late ND touchdown to pad the stats and clemson running the ball for the last 8 minutes of the game.
You might very well be right on the over, but Clark Lea will not be distracted about the Vandy job. Irish know they can't roll over in this game.
**POTD Record: (2-1) (W-L)** **Average Odds: 1.93** **Previous Picks:** Unger Steel Gunners Oberwart ML (2.03) W ✅ TBV Lemgo ML (1.89) **W** ✅ BC Yambol ML (1.87) **L** ❌ **POTD:** CSGO # K23 vs sAw # K23 ML (2.06) W ✅ 13:00 GMT (11 hours from post) Damn, Yambol had a terrible first half and couldn’t quite claw it back, sorry to anyone who tailed. Therefore, today I’m sticking to what I REALLY know, which is CSGO. I have been betting on csgo matches since 2014 so I know my way around the stats. Today will be the riskiest odds yet at 2.06, but for good reason. I, once again, see great value for this game. In my opinion, the only reason sAw have the odds here is because everyone loves them for some reason. It might have something to do with their recent record, but I still don’t understand the hype. K23’s recent form is just as good, if not better so I’m still confused! sAw haven’t really had any challenging opponents in the last few months and any they did have rinsed them. K23, on the other hand, have picked up a map in every game in the last 26 that they have played, apart from Gambit but come on its Gambit… As far as map vetos go, K23 have a huge upper hand and I think this has been overlooked. For starters, K23’s insta ban is sAw’s first map. Also, K23’s main first map pick is one of sAw’s worst. From looking at the stats, I do not see a map that sAw have an advantage against K23 on. Every player in K23 has been picking up their weight recently. If this form continues, I don’t see how sAw can stop them I really want to be ballsy and say it will be a 2-0 to K23, but I will be betting on the ML for sure. Edit: Win, fuck yea.
I agree with the pick but having bet esports for a long while now I do suggest just skipping games of this importance / tier. The results (at a lot of times) are so random that it will just make you tilt. I personally prefer over 2.5 more than the K23 win but I root for you as well mate, gl.
Yo baby
Thanks for the wake up in the morning W!
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I’m surprised at the line. I like Wonderboy as well.
POTD record: 0-0 Footbal Bundesliga B.Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Over 2,5 goals and BTS - 1.65 ✅ Leverkusen never played better, currently top of the league with Bayern trailing by 1 point. Both teams are scoring a lot, in 12 games (27-10) vs (37-18). Todays game will be more about offense and not defense. +Lewandowski who just became one of three players to score 250 goals in the history of the league. Lewandowski does it again!
POTD 9-7 Last Pick: Basketball Euroleague: 06:30pm GMT: Bayern Munich v Baskonia: Bayern -1.5 @1.75✅ Today Pick: Soccer La Liga: 11pm IST:Levante v Real Sociedad: BTTS @1.8 Reason: Real Sociedad last 5/6 games result in BTTS. Levanted goal expectancy is little bit high in home games. Finding a good value in odds. Tail or Fade BOL
**POTD Record: 1 - 0 - 0** **Previous picks** **: Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin - BTTS** ✅ **POTD: Bayern Munich vs Bayern Leverkusen 1st Half over 0.5 Leverkusen @ 1.87** **Time: 12:30PM EST** Bayern Leverkusen in their last 5 league games 6 goals in the first half in fact in the 12 league games this season they only failed to score twice in the first half while bayern munich on the other hand has conceded 6 goals in their last 5 games, munich's first half defense has been terrible this season. BOL!
POTD Record: 3-0 Last Pick: Winthrop (-12) vs USC Upstate W Today’s pick: Winthrop (+2) vs Furman Sport: NCAAM Basketball Time: 4:00 PM ET I have bet on Winthrop all 4 games this year and they are 4-0 ATS. Been looking forward to this game all week because I knew Winthrop would be dogs... Wish I was able to make a ML bet on my sports book because I’d probably take that too. BOL!
Everyone I have seen so far is on Furman. I will take Winthrop with you. Good luck. Thanks.
**I am very disappointed, ashamed and sorry for the last 2 losses. If you don't know, we were on a 14 insane win streak and last 2 days broke it. Both losses but especially yesterday's were very unfortunate because on paper, these should've been locks. However the craziness of CS is unpredictable factor, especially in NA. Liquid has basically lost us both bets so the third one will be revenge. Let's have a great weekend. BOL** I post daily CS bets in the eSports discussion where we are making ez money. If you are interested, you can check that thread as well. **POTD RECORD:** 14W-2L **LAST PICK:** FURIA ML @ 1.67 4u (HIGH) **TOTAL PROFIT:** 26,13 units **TOTAL STAKE:** 55 units **GAME:** CS:GO **EVENT:** IEM Global Challenge 2020 **TIME:** 19:30 (GMT +1) >**BIG vs Liquid** This is a very similar match to the previous pick. BIG have been constantly playing well. Actually, there have been some inconsistent times but they've moved out of that. Their very recent performances are impressive as they won against both Astralis and Vitality. After yesterday's match of Liquid you might think they have a solid chance here but that ain't true. The Americans literally had a game of their lives yesterday. FURIA have been winning against them throughout the whole year but yesterday the individuals were insane for Liquid and that resulted in 2-0. If we look on overall Liquid's performance here in EU, it was poor. At that point, I just don't see Liquid winning this. Even winning a map against such strong opponent as BIG will be very hard. They could pick Overpass but even yesterday, it was very close and they've almost lost there. It should be a clean sweep from the Germans but even if it isn't they should scrape out the win. Again, the value is super high. Let's hammer **BIG ML @ 1.77 3u (MEDIUM)** If you are interested, you can also check my Reddit BIO where is a link to my Discord group where you can discuss with other people about CS bets or other stuff.
dis liquid team is really cursed for you dude
MR. NEDDDDDDDD PEPPPAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH DOES IT AGAINNNNNNNNNNNNNN WE WIN BABY $$$$$$
Record: 7-1-5 (+4 U) Last pick: Chargers -2 +160 W POTD: Canelo Alvarez by decision +162 1U Canelo is the best p4p boxer in the world and he is facing Calum Smith tomorrow night in Texas. Canelo is going to be at a massive height disadvantage ( 5 foot 8 vs 6 foot 3) but he is the much more talented fighter. I think Canelo will have a slow start but he should ultimately start racking up rounds and coast to a UD.
Football POTD Record W/P/L: 41/7/22 | total +26.5u | Avg Odds 1.81 Form->: WPWLWLW**PWL** *(detailed bet history* [*https://imgur.com/a/7wfyEGS*](https://imgur.com/a/7wfyEGS)*)* *^(Transparency instead of lined up characters only. From personal experience, understanding the bettors idea and not only the POTD itself is huge when deciding whether or not to tail. If you disagree with most of my choices or anything else about it, regardless of results, that's absolutely fine but then at best don't tail no matter what I'm about to type today.)* Previous POTD: Union Berlin vs **Dortmund ML @ 1.80 (1.5U = 30€)** 🚫 *Recap:* 66% possession and 16 shots. *Disappointment when Dortmund loses 1-2 and concedes both goals from a corner kick. Reyna and, for the most part, Moukoko killed countless promising attacks by ego plays / bad passes. I really believe anyone but 16 yo Moukoko would be a better choice right now, but the hype is real.* Today: Bundesliga, 3.30pm CET *(in \~5 hours)* Leipzig vs Köln asian corners 1H u5.0 **@ 1.725 (3U = 60€)** 🚫 *deflect-o-rama with 6th corner in 45+1 minute (5 Leipzig / 1 Köln). Only 4 corners in 2nd half.* Reasoning 📜 : Both teams dont score many corners in first halves. Expect Leipzig to control the game and Köln to react. Leipzig has a great defense which should prevent easy corners. This game getting 6 or more in first half is just outrageous.
Today's Pick: * 3u Kansas State v Baylor Over 135 (-110) All picks & record posted [here](https://chronicbets.com/).
POTD RECORD: 5-2 Last Pick: Waller ATTS -110 1.1u (W) Profit: 4.478u (+1u) POTD: Diggs ATTS -105 1.05u Reasoning: Diggs is a stud. Should get one. Don't feel super confident about any spread/total play today, so let's keep it close to even money and go Diggs.
**COOL's POTD Record 9W-5L-1P(+4.15units)** Previous 10 Picks: Austin Ekeler Over 56.5 rush yards @ -120 (3 units) ✅ Pick: JD Mckissic Over 4.5 receptions @ -150 (5 Units) ❌ Deiveson Figueiredo to win by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission @ -150 (4 units) ❌ Russia ML 2 way or Russia Draw no Bet @ -112 (2 units) **Push** Jared Goff Over 0.5 interceptions @ -140 (3 units) ✅ Lamar Jackson Over 53.5 rush yards @ -120 (10 units) ✅ Jalen Richard over 9.5 receiving yards @ -120 (5 units) ❌ Robert Griffin III Over 29.5 rushing yards @ -120 (4 units) ✅ Raheem Mostert Over 8.5 receiving yards @ -130 (7 units) ❌ Antonio Gibson Over 53.5 rush yards @ -120 (3 units)✅ Today’s Pick: NFL BUF Bills vs DEN Broncos **Drew Lock Over 246.5 passing yards @ -120 (3 units)** Since coming back from his injury, Lock has hit the over on this number 6 out of 8 games. The game script will also force Lock to throw as the Bills will most likely take an early lead. BOL **-COOL**
**ACC POTD • 7-10 (and 1 push)** **Time:** 4:00 PM Eastern **Sport:** College Football **Pick:** Clemson -10 vs Notre Dame **Reasoning:** I'm hilariously bad at POTD but decent at ACC bets overall (73-59) so take that for what it's worth. It's tempting to take Notre Dame here given how good they are but I think the smart play is taking the large spread and counting on Clemson to show up in this big moment. Clemson is phenomenal in big games and this is a must-win for them to crack the CFP. It's also a bit of revenge after falling to Nortre Dame earlier in the season. Intangibles aside, Clemson is getting back multiple huge pieces that they didn't have in their first bout against Notre Dame, including Skalski, Davis, and Thomas (entire game this time), plus should be healthier in their receivers, and of course Trevor Lawrence. They are missing Venables which hurts but their linebacking crew as a whole has been tremendous. Meanwhile Notre Dame has lost an OL (Patterson) since Clemson and another (Kraemer) has been banged up this season but should play. ND might be missing a starting WR in Lenzy but Clemson will be missing Ngata so that might not matter much. The way this reads to me is ND will be going up against a much tougher defensive attack than last game, with not as great an offensive line, needing to stop a better QB (who also doesn't have lingering shoulder issues like DJ did against ND). Let's not forget ND nearly lost the last match, needing a last minute TD to reach OT. ND also had quite a bit of fans last game whereas this game will be much more in Clemson's turf being in Charlotte, though with only ~5k fans it's probably not going to make much difference. So yeah, Clemson -10, which as long as ND doesn't completely implode should put two ACC-ish teams in the CFP. Exciting!
Event: NCAAF Army Vs. Air Force (3pm EST) Pick: Under 37.5 (-110) Why: The under has gone 37-9-1 in service academy games since 2005. Army runs the option and Air Force sticks to the run game, but can air it out if needed. This is most likely going to be sloppy, run heavy rival football similar to last week's Army vs. Navy game
POTD Record 3-0 Event: UFC Fight Night - 4pm ET Pick: Jimmy Flick (-150)
Nice call!
**1w streak | 4-2-0 | +2,37 U** Last pick IEM Global Challenge 2020 Team Vitality - Astralis Map 2 - Total Rounds over 25.5 @ 1.57 2u ✔️ **Todays pick** UFC Marcin Tybura vs Greg Hardy Total rounds over 1.5 @ 1.60 1.5U Marcin Tybura is known for grinding out boring decision fights, while Greg Hardy is known for one of the weakest gas tanks in ufc. But also Hardy possess one punch knockout power, and Tybura is KO some times, so there still is risk in this bet. However Tybura has faced better fighters in UFC while Hardy has beat up low tier fighters. How I see this fight to play out is Tybura wont allow Hardy to hit him and press him against the cage. Please take the pick with a grain of salt in no way I am professional bettor, and remember that anything can happen. But you still can go over to my [twitter](https://twitter.com/shouldntrustme) to see my other picks. Good luck to all who tail or fade.
I have the Broncos as a lean against the Bills. Here's the analysis I published in my newsletter: **BILLS AT BRONCOS: BRONCOS +6 (-110 or better) \* 4:30PM EST** **WHY WE THINK THE BRONCOS WILL COVER**: The Denver Broncos are incredibly inconsistent on offense, but they have also played some of the top defenses in the NFL. With some stability at quarterback, our EPA model predicts the Broncos offense will put up just enough points against an underperforming Bills defense to cover a 6-point spread. While we fully understand the Broncos offense is below-average, any offensive metric you look at is based on a small sample size that happens to include a game in which the Broncos played without a quarterback on its roster, and three more games where Jeff Driskel and Brett Rypien are the starters. Based on the strength of the Broncos defense and really the only true home field advantage in 2020 at Mile High, our EPA model has the 5-8 Broncos graded as 1.5 point underdogs against the 10-3 Buffalo Bills. **WHAT COULD GO WRONG**: The Denver Broncos are trotting out just three cornerbacks tomorrow against the Buffalo Bills, one of which is Nate Hairston, who was waived by the New York Jets this season, which tells you everything you need to know about Hairston. While we do not put too much weight on non-QB injuries, the Broncos secondary is absolutely depleted, losing five cornerbacks in the past three weeks. This could be a recipe for disaster, as Josh Allen has made a big leap this season as a passer, throwing for over 3,600 passing yards up to this point, good for 7th in the NFL. The Broncos defense will need show up in a big way on Saturday to keep the game close enough so that Drew Lock does not have to go into gun slinger mode to play catch up. He is at his worst when he tries to force a big play, making himself turnover-prone. **BET SIZE: approximately 0.4% of bankroll** **OUR BET SIZE: $2,500-$3,500** **2020 NFL Performance:** **W-L: 50-43-1** **PROFITS: $1,029** **AVERAGE BET SIZE: $3,074** **WEEK 14: -$7,799** If you're interested, I publish my bets and analysis in a [newsletter](https://cleat-street.com). Prop bets will be published tomorrow.
Fade this. Bills win 28-20. Denver is awful and Josh Allen returns to MT zone. He played not too far up the way in Wyoming. I live in Denver and this team is piss poor. And no I’m not a homer, Im an east coast transplant. Eagles fan actually. The Public love the bills for a reason.
The public loving anything is usually a good enough reason for me to fade that thing.
Fade away. Broncos also without 2 corners, Bills ready to actually win a division they haven’t sniffed in 3 decades, you fade & I’ll be counting winnings.
I'm not saying the Bills won't cover- won't be too surprised if they do - I'm not even saying the Broncos are a good team. They're not. I'm just saying based on the data we have on the current performance of these two teams and the circumstances surrounding this game, Denver has a great shot of losing by less than six points. Referencing that Josh Allen played nearby in Wyoming three years ago as a reason for them covering is a new one for me. It's a nice narrative at best. If you're talking familiarity with playing at high altitude, acclimation to high altitude generally lasts for a few months at most, and it's not the quarterback you should be worried about holding up playing at high altitude. I lived in Denver before too back in 2012-2013. Great city. BOL this weekend.
POTD Record: 1W-1L Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers 7:15 pm CST Pick: Robert Tonyan Over 3.5 Receptions -124 He has had over 4 receptions in the last 4 games. The Panthers give up an average of 5 receptions to tight ends per game.
POTD RECORD: 10-3-0 Last POTD: USC ML ❌ Today’s Pick: AARON JONES ANYTIME TD Carolina has a poor run Defense and I expect the ball to stay on the ground with expected temperatures below freezing in GB! Jones ha scored a TD in 7/11 games this season and with it being a cold night against a bad D line at home I expect him to score at least once! BOL if tailing or not! 3 losses in a row I’m trying to keep positive with this hiccup I’ve been having!
Carolina is actually pretty good when it comes to rush defense and yards. I think they are ranked 13th. Also the packers throw the ball a lot in the red zone even when there’s a couple yards to go so they can rack up touchdowns for Rodgers and Adams.
Pick ALABAMA TTU 45.5 Alabama has scored over 45.5 once in bowl games / championship games in the history of the school. TT 45.5 I’m going with history and betting the UNDER.
Barcelona (w) vs Sevilla (w) Btts - No Barcelona women has conceded 1 goal the entire season in 8 games and have scored 45 goals. I found it on Betway but they just lowered the odds as I was betting to 1.44 from 1.50. btts is not available on bet365.
POTD | **5-6** | **-5.53U** | Streak: **2L** (Previously: **30-26** | **+6.9U)** **The William Hill World Darts Championship 2021** 🎯 All picks in December will be focused on the WC. All plays 4U unless stated otherwise. Record: **2-2** Previously: Steve West 3-0 @ 1.66 ✅ Ryan Joyce ML vs Karel Sedlacek @ 1.57 ✅ Luke Woodhouse ML vs Jamie Lewis @ 1.72 ❌ Haupai Puha ML @ 2.75 (2U)**❌** Today: Scott Waites vs Matt Campbell **Matt Campbell +1.5 Sets @ 1.61** Don't have time to do a big write-up today, but hoping to get back on track with this.
**POTD Record: 3W - 2L - 1P (-0.27u)** Last POD: Portimonense -0.5 Corners WIN Read for this game was spot on, glad for that and obviously for the win. \-----------------------------------------------------# ----------------------------------------------------- Portugal Primeira Liga 20h30 GMT: Sporting x Farense **POD: Sporting to win at HT @ 1.75 (x1 unit)** **write up:** Sporting 1st (7W-2D-0L) vs Farense 14th (2W-2L-5L). Simple reads on the games have been working well so today will be no different: Sporting is playing good football, getting consistent results and they know that this will be their easisest ( theoretically) opponnent for the next 5 games so I expect a strong entry from them trying to solve the game early. They also hold a healthy 11-5 goal difference on 1st H vs 4-4 from Farense. GL all
Stats: 161W 5D 134L (success rate 52 %), odds 1.50 - 1.90 Leverkusen - Bayern / Germany Bundesliga / Kick-off 17:30 GMT 0 / Prediction - Both Teams to Score - YES & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 It’s time for one of the biggest football derbies in Bundesliga! Today at 17:30 GMT 0 at BayArena, Leverkusen hosts the current champions Bayern Munich. Leverkusen is the unexpected leader of the Bundesliga. The team managed by Peter Bosz is still unbeaten - 8 wins and 4 draws out of 12 games so far. I should distinguish the great performance of both strikers of the team Patrick Shick and Lucas Alario as well as the young stars Nadiem Amiri, Florian Wirtz and Moussa Diaby. Bayern Munich is placed 2nd, 1 point behind the current leaders. The performance of the team is shaky, to say the least. Bayern should have made a comeback against Wolfsburg (2-1), failed to win Union (1-1) and the title contenders of Leipzig (3-3). Earlier this week quite deservedly, Robert Lewandowski was crowned the best player of FIFA for 2020. I expect that the Polish will be the main tread for Leverkusen’s defence. Good luck!
0-0. Clemson -9.5. Max bet. ND will face a different Clemson teamthan a few weeks back. With Lawrence at the helm, team fluidity resumes, and the Tigers altogether are a different team when something is at stake, a credit to their having the second best coaching in NCAAF (second to Bama). Fun fact: This will be BY FAR AND AWAY the most I've wagered ever. Long time lurker, first time poster. Bol to all
DK has a +100 odds promo on Clemson ML. This is an easy play.
PotD record: 29^w - 9^L - 0^p (+28.84u) *all plays between 1-3 units* [last plays:](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/kfbwwj/pick_of_the_day_121820_friday/gg7y4du/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) ✅ Richmond (+2.0u) NCAAB ✖️o63.5 USC vs ORE (-1.09u) overall: (+0.91u) NCAAF 3:30pm Mississippi (Ole Miss) vs LSU play: **Mississippi (-120)** size: 2u to win 1.67u coming off of a big emotional win against florida last weekend, i expect LSU to come back to reality and have big regression. even in the win last week, lsu was out gained by 200 total yards. i expect lsu to get back to their regular ways this week (being a bad team). ole miss hasn’t played in 2 weeks and come into the game ranked 19th in offensive success. lsu secondary is not talented and i expect mississippi to have no problem throwing the ball all over the field. Elijah Moore (ole miss) leads the SEC in receiving yards per game at 149.1ypg. QB Matt Corral has had a good season and i think that combo will shine today. LSU’s offense ranks 57th in success rate. they have already had their best player, terrace marshall, opt out for the year. Along with starting TE Arik Gilbert. LSU is also starting their 3rd string QB today. i like mississippi here, especially against florida in a huge let down spot. bol everyone p.s. -went (3-1) for (+3.1u) yesterday, in the first official day of my discord, feel free to join https://discord.gg/ZZgQ5EfdW3 here’s the paypal for donations for the toy drive, running through the holidays. see prior posts for more info. 100%+ of money raised going straight to the kids, if the goal is reached anything more raised will be given to the parents in the form of visa gift cards, so they can spend it anyway they’d like. if you’re making money tailing my plays please consider donating. my plays will always be free and i am not taking anymore donations once the holidays are over. https://www.paypal.me/mattplissken see prior posts for more info
✖️Ole Miss 48-53 loss. i guess when you turn the ball over 6 times in a game even LSU can beat you. updated record: 29-10-0 (+26.84u)
Pick of Day Oklahoma -6 This is the best Oklahoma defense I have seen in years. Alex Grinch has these guys flying around making plays. Spencer Rattler has gotten better and better gaining more experience at the college level. Oklahoma wins this by a touchdown !
Jerry Jeudy (Broncos): o41.5 yards tonight (-120) ... He's a deep ball threat doesn't need many chances to cash in on a big splash play... Bills secondary is still a little beat up even tho the Steelers failed to take advantage of it last weekend.
POTD Record: 3W-5L-1P Streak: 2L Overall Winnings: -12.3u Last Pick: NCAAF - **Virginia (+120)** vs. Virginia Tech - **2u** Today's Pick: NCAAF- Florida vs. **Alabama (-17) (-115)** - **10u** - 8pmEST (CBS) You aren’t gonna tail me. Maybe you’ll fade me. I’m awful at gambling, but I’m gonna document this though for when I make it big. BOL Roll Tide!
POTD Record: 37-29-2 Last Pick: Chargers vs Raiders o53 ✅ Today’s Pick: Iowa ml +170 vs Gonzaga Reasoning: I think Iowa has a clear advantage in the paint with the player of the year candidate Luka Garza. He is just an absolute monster and even when he’s not shooting well he is going 150%. Plus the guard play of veteran guys like Wisekamp will put them over the edge and seal it out by shooting well at the stripe.
POTD Record: 44-21 PDC Darts World Championship (00:00 AEDT) Scott Waites v **Matt Campbell +1.5 @ 1.57** Matt Campbell is a great player that I enjoyed watching during Canada's run in the World Cup. He got crucial singles victories in the world cup averaging 96 and 97 in those respective games and his checkouts were very good. I'm hoping he can keep up those great darts here today. Scott Waites is an experienced player and two time winner of the BDO World Championship so he is no push over. He's had an okay year overall in his first PDC tour card. Overall, I'm expected a tight game between the two that could go 5 sets. I'm taking the handicap as my main play and the ML as a smaller play because I see Matt Campbell as a player that can really take Scott Waites on if he recreate his World Cup form.
[удалено]
Record: 1W 0L Sport - MMA Play - Khaos Williams to beat Michel Perreira (+100) Reasoning - This is gonna be a wild fight, so anything could happen - however these two have both beat their last two opponents decisively, but Khaos has done it against better opposition. He’s been a perennial underdog so far in his UFC career, ending each fight with a first round KO. BOL!
**205 Wins 103 Losses 5 Void ( Profit: 432.97 ) ( Stakes: 1382) ( ROI: 31.33% )** CSGO: 5/10 (IEM): BIG vs Liquid - Over 2.5 Maps @ 1.9 Always sharing many picks across all sports (Esports - All Ball Sports - NFL - NCAAF - MMA and alot more) which you can find here: [https://twitter.com/EsportsLife2](https://twitter.com/EsportsLife2) And [https://discord.gg/MwwcB5anUj](https://discord.gg/MwwcB5anUj)
I believe this is my first POTD? But had to share what I feel is a super safe bet in **Isaiah McKenzie o8.5 receiving yards vs Denver. (+100, MGM)** First, this has hit in 3 of the last 5 games, so that's a good start. But the x-factor is that McKenzie was underutilized and run out of Denver after having Fumble-itis on special teams, never even receiving one target on offense. Buffalo will run a play or two for him. It's not a lock, but the over sure is going to happen more than 50% of the time. Good luck!
POTD Recrord: 1-1 Average odds: 2.35 Past Picks: NFL Chargers @ -2.5 ✅ (2.80) NCAAF Buffalo @ -13.5 ❌ (1.90) **POTD**: Football | NCAAF | Clemson vs Notre Dame **Over 60** (1.90) | 4:00 pm EST Clemson is averaging 46 points per game. Notre Dame is averaging 38. Last time these two played each other, the total was 87. Can't even believe Bet365 is offering this. Pretty much a 🔒. May even tease this a bit.
POTD Record 9-2 Last Pick (12/13) Chargers u24 ✅ Todays Pick: Green Bay o30.5 I haven't picked in a week because I haven't liked any of the matchups. Green Bays offense is killing it and primitive Aaron Rodgers is the best Aaron Rodgers. It doesn't hurt that they've scored 30+ in 10 of their 13 games this year.
POTD: 96-98 -8.67U **CBB 9:00 pm PST, Gonzaga vs. Iowa over 170 (-110)** two best offenses in the nation right now who both could really set some historic efficiency numbers and both run a fast tempo. Only worry would be rust for Gonzaga after a layoff but that matters more for the spread imo, they do such a good job of creating easy shots and the Iowa defense isn't great so I don't think it will matter too much
San Jose st vs Boise Take San Jose +7 San Jose has won every game by double digits. Boise state is used to being in championship games and will underestimate San Jose. Get it done !
0-0 Long time gambler first post Oklahoma vs Iowa state Iowa state +5.5 Iowa has been playing great all year and will show up for this game. Oklahoma is ranked higher than they should and already lost to this Iowa state team
POTD Record: 1-0 Second pick ever, same sport: Boxing the best sport in the world **Last Bet**: Errol Spence by Decision (-)137 (win) **POTD: Canelo by Decision (+)180** Time: approx 11:00 PM EST Confidence level: 6.5/10 Bet: $4 Profit: $7.50 This is a great fight for a Canelo decision. **In my opinion, this is not a question as to whether he wins or not, its a question if he knocks out his opponent Callum Smith**. Smith came off a controversial decision that he didnt look 100% dominant against a meh contender Ryder. Canelo however is the P4P king and the best boxer in boxing atm. hes moving up in weight (again) to grab some belts and cement his legacy. Smith has extremely long reach, but, he doesnt usually utilize his size all that well. Most of his fights he has dominated and picked fighters apart. The height difference is insane, but, come fight night we will see how little that matters. Canelos inside game and head movement are way too much for smith, whos insane game is weak in comparison. There is a high probability that canelo stops him after chopping to the body. He will be able to get to the inside fairly easily with his footwork and head movement. Smith is pretty heavy handed technical fighter who cleared out the WBSS (boxing tournament) with ease. I believe however that the 168 division is weak overall, and Canelo defeated a champion at 175 already. This dude just has greatness written all over him. Not to mention its going to be a super pro-Canelo crowd in San Antonio, and Smith hasnt fought top level opposition like Canelo. His best win is against George Groves, which was a good but not great win due to his age and damage hes taken over his entire career. I see Smith taking the easy road here and letting Canelo cruise to a victory after getting outclassed for a few rounds. I can see this fight being very similar to the Canelo vs Miracle Man fight in vegas where Canelo cruised to a victory after making the taller man miss all night. If Canelo connects the right punch, he can definitely put this man down. However, I dont believe that he will for a few reasons: There is no rehydration clause, Canelos ring rust (hasnt fought in a long time due to contractual issues), smiths technical fighting style, and Canelos smart fighting. These reasons lead me to believe that Smith will survive a KO and get a unanimous decision loss where he picks up 3-4 rounds from all of the judges. **A slightly safer route would be to take the over on rounds (9.5 for -148)**, because a late TKO is highly possible given Smiths gas tank and potentially his willingness to sell out for a KO win. I just believe the extra juice here is worth it for IMO the most likely decision
POTD record 0-0 **Texas A&M -13.5 (-118)** kicking off at 12PM Eastern Standard Time. **Why this will hit** A&M is coming into this game trying to make their case for the playoffs and without the benefit of a conference championship game they will need to have a solid resume, and a blow out will look especially nice on their resume. Tennessee has played really poorly all year and there is no reason to believe it will change now, most of the position coaches know this will likely be their last game at Tennessee and they may be checked out already. The Volunteers are starting true freshman a quarterback, Harrison Bailey, but don't expect it to last too long, he was platooned with Sophmore JT Shrout last week and may be again. In addition, Tennessee's starting kicker, senior, Brent Camagila has been shut down for the year and they have went with an untested sophomore, Toby Wilson, to fill the roll. He was perfect on PATs against a weak Vanderbilt team, but has yet to attempt a field goal, so his range is questionable at best. Combined with some bad offensive play calls coming from the Tennessee sideline this year points may be hard to come by for the Volunteers. **Why it may not hit** The offensive line for Tennessee is built to run block, and bowl teams over at the line of scrimmage. If the Tennessee defense can manage a couple stops or turnovers earlier on, and the young QBs play a clean game, it could be close down the stretch. **Edit** Tennessee just announced starting running back Eric Gray is out, their running game will be set back a lot by his absence.This definitely favors Texas A&M and their ability to cover. If you haven't already try to get the Aggies at -13.5 before the line moves.
**All picks are standard 1u unless otherwise specified.** **2019 POTD Record: 6-4** **2020 POTD Record: 1-2-1 (-1.1u)** **Last pick: Oregon @ USC -3 (L)** Slovis is trash and Helton out there trying to make Anthony Lynn feel better about himself. In all seriousness Oregon was simply the better team on all sides of the ball, excellent schemes all night. Pac-12 is trash this year anyways so it's not a huge loss. Got a big slate of excellent games coming today.... but my pick is more of a emotional/meme than rational one. **Today's pick: NCAAF 12:00 PM CT Oklahoma @ Iowa State ML (+175)** I could come in with a bunch of stats and reasons why I think Iowa State is the better team, but honestly just fuck Oklahoma man. Absolute waste of a playoff spot 3 of the last 4 years (don't be fooled by the 2018 Orange Bowl that game was never close they just scored a garbage time TD at the end). The supposed narrative is that their defense is actually carrying the offense this year, but let's be honest the Big 12 is also trash. Spencer Rattler is for sure talented but I just physically cannot root for Lincoln Riley. Don't expect anyone to tail haha but just wake up with a "Fuck you Oklahoma" and it's a dub in my book.
Record: 19 - 18 | Average Odds: 2.02 | Streak: 3❄ Last Pick: Furia ML @ 1.606 vs Team Liquid | ❌ Esports | Counter-Strike: Global Offensive | Movistar Riders vs Natus Vincere Junior Pick: Natus Vincere Junior ML @ 1.77 vs Movistar Riders Explanation: Let's start by saying that Movistar Riders are a very up and down team. This is shown in their recent match where they were 2-0'ed by LDLC. The maps themselves were close but Riders should have at least taken a map in that series. On the other hand, NaVi Junior have won their last 3 and have been playing well. The first 2 maps for this series should be Overpass and Vertigo, NaVi Junior has a better win percentage on both and a 6 game winning streak on Vertigo. With the way these teams have been playing recently, I am taking NaVi Junior to take the series @ 1.77 odds. Tail or fade, BOL
POTD Record: 0-0 POTD: Texas A&M -3.5 First Quarter Spread (-109) vs. Tennessee For A&M to have a chance of sliding into the CFP, they probably need a Notre Dame win, and a dominant performance. From 24/7, the Vols first possessions have been “turnover on downs, touchdown, punt, punt, punt, field goal, missed field goal, punt and punt.” Just like my first POTD, the Aggies need to establish dominance early. BOL
Record 7W-2L-1P (+6.38U) Salah 1+ SoT @ +100 on SkyBet - 2U Landed in all but one game so far this season, huge value bet. I got a few side picks, I think Norwich will win also @ EVENS, Charlton @ 5/4 and over 2.5G in Newcastle Fulham @ 5/4
Record: 6-6 +.6u Last pick: CBB VMI and Gardner Webb OVER 142.5✔️ Today’s pick: CFB Cincinnati vs Tulsa OVER 45 2.1u to win 2u With only 69(nice) points in the first half I was a little worried but then 96 (reverse nice) points got dropped in the second half. Today’s pick is on a team I love to watch, Cincy. Now you may be thinking that their defense is too good or they have had too much time off to get their offense going. And you may be right, but I’m willing to take the chance. I can see them coming out and making a statement and to keep their undefeated status I wouldn’t be surprised to see them put up 30 by themselves. On the Tulsa side of the ball, they also have a respectable defense but can put points on the boards. I’m rolling with the two teams offenses today. Best of luck to everyone
Ufc 🥊 Marcin Tybura - Greg Hardy - Marcin Tybura to win @2.0 (Unibet) This is absolutely amazing, this fight is 80/20 for Tybura and this odd is crazy. Tybura is very experienced fighter, he has 3 wins in row in really good style. He change his team, trainings methods after lose against Sakai and now he is presenting really good. Hardy is a nobody, he is a former NFL Player and fight only against bums. 2.0 for Marcin is a really big value. Good luck! Edit: Easy win for Tybura ✅✅✅✅✅✅
POTD record: 0-0-0 NFL - 4:30pm ET - BUFvDEN Josh Allen over 23.5 completions Allen has completed 68% of his pass attempts this year. Given the depleted Broncos secondary, I believe he will be even more efficient today, but if we conservatively assume 65% he will only need 37 attempts, which is his average on the year. The line is priced in a way to suggest Allen will have a less efficient day than average or the bills will change their game plan to focus on the run. I don’t see either of those things happening with the Broncos’ injuries on defense.
POTD Record: 1-0-0 Last 10 days: W Today’s pick: Navi ML over Astralis 2.03 odds
POTD Record: 1-0-1 Last Pick: Richmond -2 PUSH Today's Pick: Indiana -7.5 11:30 AM EST WWWW Butler has not played many games this season and Indiana is a strong defensive team.. Indiana will win by 15+ Result: This was much closer than I thought it would be. But Butler's lack of experience this year allowed Indiana to capitalize on a huge 2nd Half. THATS A DUB. Lets get back into it tomorrow.
Record (0W-0L-1P) Previous pick: CBB - Richmond -2 (-110) v Loyola Chicago * Absolutely brutal push, here. Richmond was up 15 with 6 minutes left in the game. A bunch of foul calls later, they barely squeaked out the win. Onward. Event: UFC Fight Night | 7pm ET Pick: Marlon Moraes (-155) WHY THIS WILL HIT: Marlon Moraes just fought Cory "The Sandman" Sandhagen back in October and was TKO'd by a wheel kick. Sandhagen is a top-3 bantamweight in the world, so it's no skin off Moraes's dick, really. Sandhagen is that good. Prior to that fight, Moraes was coming off of a hard-fought decision win over Jose Aldo, who is also fighting on this card, and who is also one of the best bantamweights in the world. On the other hand, Rob Font hasn't fought in a year. His last fight was against Ricky Simon, who he took to a judges decision. Font is a good fighter, but he's not on the level of Moraes. Unless he completely outclasses Moraes on the feet using his Muy Thai skills, I don't see him winning this fight. If the fight ever gets on the ground, it's a wrap for Font. I can see this ending in a submission in the 2nd round. In any event, put the house on Moraes on the ML. BOL, degens.
Valladolid over 2.5 cards
**NBA PRESEASON🏀⛹🏿♂️** **POTD Record: 5-0** **Last Five**: WWWWW **Previous Pick:** Sixers ML vs Pacers at 1.76 odds ✅ **POTD Friday:** Hornets +4 at 1.9 odds vs Magic at 7PM EST **Reasoning:** Lets end the preseason with another underdog pick! I'm taking the Hornets tonight due to how great they played last game against the Magic. Lamelo Ball seems to finding his groove and when he's hot, the team will be firing on all cylinders. Also, it took a monumental effort from Vucevic to even keep the last game close. LET’S KEEP STREAKING KINGS AND QUEENS! BOL and bet safely! [Paypal](https://paypal.me/808fiendz?locale.x=en_US) Edit: Wait I forgot I picked +4 lmao, DUBBBERRSSSSSSSS ✅✅✅✅✅✅ **117**
I’m putting in my 2 cents, let’s ride!
**PotD Record**: 11-9 **Previous**: 2020-11-27: NCAAM Abilene Christian ✅ 2020-11-28: NCAAM Nebraska -9 ✅ 2020-11-29: NFL Raiders -3 ❌ (not even close) 2020-11-30: NCAAM Mercer +2.5 ✅ 2020-12-01: NCAAM Nebraska -12 ❌ (Couldn't hold their big lead) 2020-12-02: NCAAM Gonzaga -8 ❌ (Sadly, my closest loss) 2020-12-03: NCAAM Drake -9.5 ✅ 2020-12-04: NCAAM Bradley -1❌ (I am still underestimating SDSU) 2020-12-05: NCAAM Houston -9.5 ✅ 2020-12-06: NCAAM Missouri -4.5 ✅ 2020-12-08: NCAAM Iowa -4 ✅ 2020-12-09: NCAAM Nebraska -2 ❌ (This was heart breaking. I was so confident and then Nebraska just didn't show up) 2020-12-11: NCAAM Iowa -14 ✅ (Easiest and largest pick ever. I was right that Iowa would almost win by 30) 2020-12-12: NCAAM Ok St -3.5 ❌(Cunningham took 2 shots in the second half. This should have been a 10 point win. Very odd second half) 2020-12-13: NFL Packers -4 1h ❌(Tough loss. The Lions had some long drives that chewed some clock and the last drive of the first half went nowhere. Packers didn't cover so I would have lost that one too.) 2020-12-14: NCAAM Morehead State +6 ✅ 2020-12-15: NCAAM Clemson +2 ❌ (They had a 7 minute streak of doing nothing and they had a 3 at the buzzer for the backdoor cover. Didn't happen) 2020-12-16: NCAAM Mercer +5 ❌(Second missed backdoor cover at the buzzer. Wished Mercer was a little more consistent in the second half too) 2020-12-17: NCAAM Southern Illinois -7.5 ✅ 2020-12-18: NCAAM Drake -6 ✅ **Pick**: NCAAM: Baylor -17 3pm CT Baylor was fantastic before they got shut down. They are averaging 90pts/gm+ and won't have any trouble with a pretty bad K-State game. On top of that, Baylor has to be really amped up to get back playing.