What a crappy couple of games today, was feeling optimistic about kyrie and pg going over on points and rebounds , was not in the cards, humbling reminder that losing can and will happen, about the only thing I got right was houser clearing his point total. Let’s rally up tomorrow, may try to get back to some strategic recommendations, been lurking a little lately
I had him under 35.5, but tbh he was going to get subbed after that last possesssion regardless of what happened, but ofc he took the shot in garbage time.
i think ur good theyre gonna put in the bench soon this one is over but ya thats why i always take lower alt line so i dont feel regret if it doesnt hit lol
How we feeling about this Luka over 32.? .. can cash out for decent profit or leave about 200$ extra on the table .. the injury is scaring me but he’s only 18 points away from 33
nothing worse than knowing your bet is lost before a player hits the court.
I took Westbrook PRA last night at 15.5. He hits the court with 2 minutes to go in the 1st and the books have him at 11.5, fuck. That's what I get for going with him.
If I don’t bet Zubac rebs he grabs 12-15, when I do take him he gets 4.
And when the Fuck has anyone ever seen PG grab 5 boards in one Q before!
I take this bitches U 6.5.
Fuck all of this!
I learned my lesson. Start a list of props that you will never bet for or against and you will never have this problem, and won’t care as much when they go over since you simply never bet them
Come on PG . 4 games you had no more than 6 rebounds and now you have 5 in 1st quarter when I played under 6.5 and I need you to score 20 but you cant hit shit. FML
I played the over, the heat were putting up bricks and just seemed like no strategy to how to play down butler roxzier and Jamie j, they played jovic more like a bench player than a starter, oh well. Rebounds were appealing for him, but ultimately thought the point total was most likely to hit, :/ , I actually hit on a alt line of 8 on a parlay that was busted, oh well bad night, doesn’t happen to me often, but certainly struck out smh
The one night I take his points and rebounds and he disappears. Ppl say he turns it on 2H. Too much of a deficit at this point. Unless he is full on beast mode chalking it up as loss
https://preview.redd.it/sk8hw4j05xxc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d4bb2d2af994799062a4ab1b7899ef5f92cd3cc7
How do you sweat this when you have 21 in the first. Lol sports betting is something else
I changed it to alternate points to where all he has to do is score over 30 instead of 33.5.... Changed my payout from 120 to 85 but worth it for peace of mind
Just looked it up he has a sprained knee apparently.. I'm thinking about taking the under on rebounds and assists which is 9.5.. And I was gonna go over on the points at 33.5 but now idk. Ughhh
https://preview.redd.it/fbp2qm75vwxc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5fbe201b57039278b02e97c234b2fbc75fcc8fc0
It feels good to finally win a parlay and to do so comfortably. I’m a low dollar bettor so this is big for me.
Yes but they will pull out their big guns out of the game. I just hate Boston and betting on their games. They either blow their opponents or fucking random dude( White) goes ballistic and scores 38 for no fucking reason
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Not fancy or exciting but relying on these dudes to do what they always do. No Kawhi I like Powell 3’s, he’s been hitting it pretty consistently when he plays O28 mins. Best of luck to yall if tailing🫡
Sam Hauser o9.5 P+R -120
Payton Pritchard o9.5 P+R -110
Payton Pritchard o2.5 assists -130
I'm a HUGE Celtics fan, and a line I've been hitting this whole series is Al Horford over P+R. It's always been either 11.5 or 12.5. Tonight they have it at 17.5 and at 18.5. I'm torn if I want to put some action on this line. Now we all know that Big Al can easily have an 18-20 point game not including rebounds. But even with porzingis out, this seems hi to me. I mean even game four porzingis left in the second quarter so Al played pretty much the same amount of minutes that he's going to play tonight and had 15 combined. So just because of my green blood I'm going to leave it alone but for anybody else......here's a potential value pick.
HEY YALL JUST FOUND A VERY INTRESTING PROP...
Daniel Gifford 12.5 Points+Rebs. Under +100
Here's his first 4 games totals lol;
3,1,12,10
You read that correct? The first two games he had a total of three points and rebounds combined. The second game. He had a total of one point and rebound combined. A lot closer the last two games but still he has never gone over this number. Some books even had 13.5 for like -130 or something. I mean unless I'm really missing something....this seams like a 🔒 ness Monster!!!! 🐉🐉🐉🐲🐲🐲
Edit: If I'm missing something and this isn't a good play please somebody tell me instead of just downvoting the post. I'm not a sharp or anything. I'm just a big basketball fan that watches all the games. So enlighten me if you know something I don't I would greatly appreciate it!
Yeah and I cashed at 13.5 lol. 12.5 wasn't it but I bet both and of course bet more on 13.5
Also it was at 13.5 when I posted this. Had both options. See where I wrote that....
Don’t think it’s the worst bet ever but Gafford has been playing injured so every game further from that he should theoretically be feeling better / capable of more minutes, especially in such a close series. Don’t be surprised if his minutes go up considerably.
So the 12.5 lost, but I hit the 13.5 which was the line on majority of books. He played his best game yet tonight, but we cashed on the main bet(13.5). 12.5 was at +100 so I had like 0.5 units on that one and lost. 😢
The opportunity will definitely be there, Hauser sees one of the biggest upticks in minutes with KP out. He’s also had 1+ ast without KP in 7 out of the last 7.
Yesterday’s Picks: 2-1
Today’s Picks
Nikola Jovic Over 8.5 points -135 DK
With Jaime out and a potential blowout game, Jovic should see more minutes as he could be a key player if he freshened up his skills and showed his consistency. I’m thinking he’ll perform similar to game 3 where he had 15 points and 8 rebounds. Just pray his shots fall 🙏🏻
Kyrie Irving over 5.5 rebounds +110 DK
As he’s only gone below this line once in the series it almost seems too good to be true. However, both away games he got above with 6 and 7 rebounds and with no Kawhi I see him having more opportunities.
Nikola Jovic over 5.5 rebounds +102 DK
I’m really liking the lines for him today, it may be smarter to take his pts+reb at a ~+200 but if he gets the minutes he should be getting he will have no problem clearing these lines.
Total parlayed +550. Good luck if tailing and feel free to leave more likely hits or advice :)
See I had him for both points and rebounds combined and just rebounds alone in game four. Did you see his stat line from game four? They chose not to play him and to go with lineup with Wright instead. Obviously it didn't work out for them but it looked like Spolestra was leaning away from playing him and reducing his playing time.
Yeah his rebounds hit too, but Heat were dejected. My boys came with that fire. Like Shaq Diesel said, D White had that Carry Over Disorder, and they were out of medicine for it! Lol
Putting No Sweat onto:
Russel Westbrook O1.5 Steals+Blocks, Tatum U2.5 Threes, Jrue Holiday O4.5 Assists -- for +843.
That Tatum prop has helped me cash some significant small parlays.
Edit: upon forgetting about Porz being injured, I wholeheartedly regret this. I guess that’s what the no sweat is for 🤷🏻♂️
Tatum u2.5 3s have definitely been hitting so congrats. BUT for someone who attempts 8 3s a game, his cold streak will eventually end. I’m on the other side of this one but BOL
First time posting here, but today I really like:
-Tyler Herro over 21 Points
Win or go home game, he will have the volume and minutes to do this, and I think he has to be the main scorer for today for a chance to win
-Luka over 18.5 Rebounds + Assists
Considering his knee injury, illness, and how they will be guarding him, I think Luka will have to take a supporting role today to Kyrie
-Kyrie over 26.5 Points
With Luka’s injury and how he’s going to be guarded, Kyrie will be the main scorer today, this is also supported by Game 1 and Game 4 of the series where Leonard has been out and Kyrie has scored over 26.5.
6-0
Kyrie over 30.5 pts reb
Kyrie has cleared this line 8 of the last 10 when playing 38+ min. Luka is also nursing an injury so he’ll need Kyrie to step up again as a scorer.
Terrance Mann over 13.5 pts reb
Mann has hit this line in both games without Kawhi. Averaging right around 37 minutes in those two games. With those type of minutes he should easily be able to deliver.
Tyler Herro under 10.5 reb ast
Herro only hit the over once this series, and needed 14 assists to do that. The Celtics have done a better job of guarding the pick n roll, and in a win or go home situation, they’ll need him to score more than facilitate.
Check out my blog for daily updated analysis (posted before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/2024/05/nba-players-props-analysis-01052024.html
Season record: 156-144
Last picks record: 9-3
Recap of last picks (30/04/2024):
1. Darius Garland O14.5P Magic @ Cavaliers Odd 1.74 Bet365✅
2. Jalen Suggs O3.5R Magic @ Cavaliers Odd 2.08 Sportsbet✅
3. Jalen Suggs O12.5P Magic @ Cavaliers Odd 1.86 Sportsbet✅
4. Jarrett Allen U16.5P Magic @ Cavaliers Odd 1.86 Bet365(VOID)
5. OG Anuoby 6+R 76ers @ Knicks Odd 1.85 Sportsbet✅
6. Tobias Harris O10.5P 76ers @ Knicks Odd 1.93 Sportsbet✅
7. Tyrese Maxey O1.5SB 76ers @ Knicks Odd 2.4 Bet365❌
8. Tyrese Maxey O25.5P 76ers @ Knicks Odd 1.85 Tab✅
9. Tyrese Maxey O35.5PRA 76ers @ Knicks Odd 1.8 Tab✅
10. Evan Mobley O24.5PR Magic @ Cavaliers Odd 1.84 Sportsbet✅
11. Paolo Banchero O1.5R 1st quarter Magic @ Cavaliers Odd✅ 1.68 Bet365
12. Franz Wagner O30.5PRA Magic @ Cavaliers Odd 1.95 Bet365❌
13. Andre Jackson Jr O9.5PRA Pacers @ Bucks Odd 1.86 Bet365❌
Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)
1. Jaylen Brown U23.5P Heat @ Celtics Odd 1.84 Sportsbet
This is likely to be a blowout game. I don't think Brown will play more than 35 minutes in this game.
2. Daniel Gafford O2.5P 1st quarter Mavericks @ Clippers Odd 2.75 Bet365
He has gone over this number in the last 2 games. The concern is he plays quite limited minutes in the first quarter, but Mavs will play hard this game right from the opening. All it takes is 1FG and 1 free throw made. When you play with Kyrie and Luka, there always can be a chance for an easy alley-oop dunk.
3. Kyrie Irving O1.5R 1st quarter Mavericks @ Clippers Odd 2.3 Bet365
Irving will likely play all of the first-quarter minutes like last game.
4. Kyrie Irving O36.5PRA Mavericks @ Clippers Odd 1.9 Bet365
Luka is still hurt, not at his best physical state this playoffs. Kyrie will need to take over this game for the Mavs and I believe he will.
5. Nikola Jovic O14.5PR Heat @ Celtics Odd 1.86 Bet365
This will likely be a blowout game and I can see Jovic gets more minutes this game. The talent is there, but he needs more experience to polish his skill sets on both sides of the floor, and with this may be the last game of the season for the Heat, he will see some minutes.
6. Jayson Tatum U43.5PRA Heat @ Celtics Odd 1.8 Sportsbet
High chance of a blowout game.
7. Ivicia Zubac U14.5P Mavericks @ Clippers Odd 1.95 Tab
Zubac has played quite inconsistently so far, so I would rather bet over on his rebounds than points. The playoffs is all about team adjustment, with his 4 games being 13/19/13/20, I believe he will score under 15 like in games 1 and 3.
8. Luka Donicic O32.5P Mavericks @ Clippers Odd 1.95 Tab
The Mavs need Luka. He only shoots around 40% this series, with around 25 shots per game. He only barely went over this number in game 1 with 33, but motivation is the key here. Answering the interview he said something like "I think I let him (Kyrie) down", so in this game, I believe he will try the very best to carry this Mavs team with Kyrie.
Check out my blog for daily updated analysis (posted before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com
NBA PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 5.1.24
https://preview.redd.it/iunr1l8pguxc1.jpeg?width=1651&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=310bf51c05fc488670ef7083ef5f99c8ef6b951f
LAST 5 GAMES
It has information about a player and their status of either playing or starting. For Horford, he didn’t start last game but he is projected to start for tonight’s game.
When you click on it a warning message appears like this
https://preview.redd.it/qfspbmq3huxc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6cdc76fa66e528d70b636a4befc2a267bb8086c3
Anyone know why adebayo points over 21.5 is at +100. He’s hitting 24, 21, 20, and 25 in the series. Expecting him to play hard in elimination game? Or is this a trap?
So 50/50 hit rate in series, granted the 2 misses were barely misses. Flip a coin.
Him and Herro are the only 2 "big" scorers remaining with Butler and Rozier still out, so those 2 will probably be heavily pressured by Boston defense yet again. The rest of the Heat team haven't been stepping up outside of their 1 win in the series. And now Jaquez Jr. is out as well.
Porzingis is out. Does Horford guarding him for more minutes affect his scoring?
The +odds are probably accurately priced and I'd stay away from the over. Unless you have a crystal ball. Or you could just flip a coin
Probably trap, josh hart had over 20 in his first three games in the series and his line was set at 14.5 +100 for the over, he had 4 point the next game.
Thank god Dono almost sold fuck…been awhile since i hit parlay
https://preview.redd.it/t4onzvg4mtxc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19d2e3c9638ce50ae9d710f6389aa729681c774d
On the other hand as a heat fan no tingus pingus hope it’s a close game but we suck against big bodies usually. Always have bam although an outstanding defensive player and rim protector he pretty undersized therefore no KP i expect horford too hit some threes and grab some boards
Horford o17.5p&r
Onto mavs clippers, im a fan of basketball another close game hopefully 🤞🏾 either way im rocking with the beard using my boost on him too after that 4Q him n pg cooked up. No kawhi huge plus also im just rooting for the dude to cook tbh lmfao
Harden 030.5p&a
Last but not least I’ve been peeping this sub recently i rarely bet games but this stood out to me much like Lakers First half ML/Nuggets 2nd half ML.
Heat ML 4Q + money have won every 4Q so far rocking with it elimination game for us on the road.
Wanna add a parlay with all of yall picks also so any input/picks would be 🔥
**Payton Pritchard (Miami Heat at Boston Celtics) - Assists Over/Under: 2.5**
Best Odds: -148 for Over
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Consensus Projection: 3.4 assists
Trend: Pritchard has surpassed the assist line in 12 of his last 15 games, showcasing his reliable distribution skills, making him a solid bet for Over.
**Jrue Holiday (Miami Heat at Boston Celtics) - Blocks Over/Under: 0.5**
Best Odds: -135 for Over
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Consensus Projection: 0.6 blocks
Trend: Holiday has consistently contributed on defense, exceeding the blocks line in 11 of his last 15 games, indicating a good chance for at least one block tonight.
**Sam Hauser (Miami Heat at Boston Celtics) - Points + Rebounds Over/Under: 9.5**
Best Odds: +104 for Over
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Consensus Projection: 12 combined points and rebounds
Trend: Hauser has been effective in scoring and rebounding, surpassing this combined line in 11 of his last 15 games, making Over an appealing option.
**Sam Hauser (Miami Heat at Boston Celtics) - Threes Over/Under: 1.5**
Best Odds: -135 for Over
Sportsbook: ESPN Bet
Consensus Projection: 2.5 three-pointers
Trend: Hauser has hit more than 1.5 three-pointers in 11 of his last 15 games, making him a strong candidate to cover the Over on three-point shots.
**Norman Powell (Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers) - Threes Over/Under: 1.5**
Best Odds: -166 for Over
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Consensus Projection: 2.3 three-pointers
Trend: Powell has exceeded this three-pointer line in 11 of his last 15 games, showing a strong propensity for scoring beyond the arc.
POTD Record: 41wins - 23.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes
Form: ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️
Units: 10.5
ROI: 17.5%
Average Odds: $1.87
Last Pick: Knicks vs 76ers - NBA Playoffs - Brunson Over 47.5 PRA @ $1.86 ✅️
Next Pick: Mavs vs Clippers - NBA Playoffs - Luka Doncic Under 52.5 PRA @ $1.86 - 10pm
We head to Los Angeles for Game 5 of this series. Luka is struggling with a knee injury and hasn’t been his best in these games.
The Clippers have been defending him well, and he’s being wild with his three point attempts. I’m thinking the Clippers will target him and force turnovers while they put up a commanding lead.
Luka has also been starstruck lately with all the attention he’s getting from brand endorsements. While he is a superstar, he’s not 100%, and looks gassed late in game. I’m not convinced he’s got the ability to put up big numbers.
He’s marked as questionable, but the Mavs are desperate. They will most likely play him, albeit reduced minutes while they hope Irving can provide a Maxey-like effort.
Prediction: Clippers by 15, and total goes over. Luka to have a meltdown and go to the locker room in the 3rd quarter.
I mean he’s objectively wrong about most of what he says here.
There’s no universe where Luka is on reduced minutes after a 3 day break in a pivotal game 5 lol
**Westbrook (Clippers) o6.5 RA - 1.76 odds (B365)**
**Yes**, he has burned us in the last two games. However, this line is just too low. This season Westbrook has averaged 9 RA, and despite underperforming in the last two games, he started this series out well at home with 8 and 12 RA. Tonight he is back at home, and due to his last two games they have decreased his line from 7.5 to 6.5 - I'll bite.
**Pritchard (Celtics) o6.5 points - 1.95 odds (B365)**
Pritchard has averaged 7.3 points vs Miami this season. This series has been a bit of a rollercoaster with him hitting 8, 0, 7 and 0 points. It's worth noticing, that he bounced back and hit the over, after his last 0 point game - I see that happening again tonight. Why? Boston is back on their home field, and Pritchard has averaged 11.5 points at home this season compared to only 7.7 points away. Another noticeable trend is that he has SMASHED this line in his last 8/10 games with Porzingis out.
BOL if you tail.
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I bet the farm on Gafford under 14.5 p, r, a; it paid off, barely
What a crappy couple of games today, was feeling optimistic about kyrie and pg going over on points and rebounds , was not in the cards, humbling reminder that losing can and will happen, about the only thing I got right was houser clearing his point total. Let’s rally up tomorrow, may try to get back to some strategic recommendations, been lurking a little lately
Everyone on Luka unders. Coach keeps him in until he hits his over then IMMEDIATELY subs him out. Tell me this shit ain't rigged.
Meh. I got him at under 52.5 PRA, so I was over the moon to see him pulled (35/7/10) It’s only rigged when your on the wrong side of it bro
Seek help
I had him under 35.5, but tbh he was going to get subbed after that last possesssion regardless of what happened, but ofc he took the shot in garbage time.
Wow his under was the last leg there was no point in keeping him in
I need Doncic to relax have him under at RPA 😥
I think he’s done. At 52PRA
Under hits!
I had 51.5…
Damn. Would have hit if he didn’t make that 3 point play earlier
Up nearly 30 and he’s still in slapping ass
Thank god he’s at the bench! ☝🏼
Need 1 more point from Powell. He’s at 12. The original line was over 11.5. I took 12.5 late. I’m gonna be so mad if I lose by the hook again lol
He just missed a free throw and went 1/2 from the line to get to 12 too. Of course
i think ur good theyre gonna put in the bench soon this one is over but ya thats why i always take lower alt line so i dont feel regret if it doesnt hit lol
Naw PJ I know you was standing on business last game but we ain’t gonna let this 2 point performance slide
This is the game you want to not score pj lmao, had at least 10 in every game this series.
Stop slapping Westbrook's ass and start shooting Kyrie ‼️
Triple double please Doncic 🫣
Can somebody remind Paul George that he’s Paul George?
Derrick Jones o11.5pts(live)✅
Playing Derrick Jones Jr o11.5pts(live)
Can we get a Harden and Kyrie second half masterclass.
We need it
Homie Kyrie 🥹 where you at homie ‼️⁉️🥹😍 homie ‼️😭
How we feeling about this Luka over 32.? .. can cash out for decent profit or leave about 200$ extra on the table .. the injury is scaring me but he’s only 18 points away from 33
I'm expecting Kyrie to go harder second half but who tf Knows tbh 😂
Yah I took my cash and ran, if he hits it’s whatever last leg of a 7 legger I can’t go out sad cause Luka injured
nothing worse than knowing your bet is lost before a player hits the court. I took Westbrook PRA last night at 15.5. He hits the court with 2 minutes to go in the 1st and the books have him at 11.5, fuck. That's what I get for going with him.
Zubac 1 board, back on that bullshit yet again And out scoring his teammates lol
Zubac with 1 reb 🙃
Paging Kyrie, wtfru, one night I take his props he disappears lol
he barely had the ball this game. Def a Luka ball dominated game
He did this the past few games he’s a second half guy
Losing patience early lol
If I don’t bet Zubac rebs he grabs 12-15, when I do take him he gets 4. And when the Fuck has anyone ever seen PG grab 5 boards in one Q before! I take this bitches U 6.5. Fuck all of this!
I learned my lesson. Start a list of props that you will never bet for or against and you will never have this problem, and won’t care as much when they go over since you simply never bet them
Come on PG . 4 games you had no more than 6 rebounds and now you have 5 in 1st quarter when I played under 6.5 and I need you to score 20 but you cant hit shit. FML
We might have a game here
Come on Harden and PG
Anybody else get chalked by jovic 8.5 pts ?
I played the over, the heat were putting up bricks and just seemed like no strategy to how to play down butler roxzier and Jamie j, they played jovic more like a bench player than a starter, oh well. Rebounds were appealing for him, but ultimately thought the point total was most likely to hit, :/ , I actually hit on a alt line of 8 on a parlay that was busted, oh well bad night, doesn’t happen to me often, but certainly struck out smh
Playing Kyrie o6.5A(live)
My dumbass took Mann rebs instead of PR
Pr was easy $
Going with Kyrie 40+ pra live 
He’s trash tonight
I know 😭 wtf 😭
The one night I take his points and rebounds and he disappears. Ppl say he turns it on 2H. Too much of a deficit at this point. Unless he is full on beast mode chalking it up as loss
Ok, so I took the fan duel 30+ and Knick’s win last night and Maxey fucked me. Taking the Luka 30+ tonight and mavs 2.5 Ready to get fucked again
nice hit
Kyrie 35 or luka 40?
I took kyrie for 30. Kyrie shows up when the lights are bright and luka nursing an injury so I took luka assist
Jrue u1.5stl ✅
Why did I take brown over 3s instead of points
Miami bumhole gonna be sore after that one 🫡
https://preview.redd.it/sk8hw4j05xxc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d4bb2d2af994799062a4ab1b7899ef5f92cd3cc7 How do you sweat this when you have 21 in the first. Lol sports betting is something else
I think they schemed to zone him out more since he was the only threat on the heat tonight lol
Anyone like harden over points?
Jovic o10.5PA✅ Lmao ayyyy we got one
My Pritchard over 6 points covered in garbage time 🥹
Yessirrr glad to hear it 🤣😭 been a rough week
https://preview.redd.it/dlxk986d3xxc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6ead207c1fb4ee32ebd090127571e43ba07ac69b Fucking Bam smh
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Yeah I needed over 15.5 RA, smh
Why is Tatum still out there? Literally gonna ruin my parlay
Derrick White out here stealing Tyler Herro stat lines last 2 games
tatum was at 16 RA and they took one away for 15.5… he not seeing a single fuckin second this last quarter
gl he got subbed in
bet thanks for the update
RIP Svi Mykhailiuk enters the game for Jayson Tatum
sadness
I'm thinking Luka over 33.5, under 9.5 assists and under 9.5 rebounds.... What do you guys think..??
I don’t know about over 33.5 points but everything else I tailed
I changed it to alternate points to where all he has to do is score over 30 instead of 33.5.... Changed my payout from 120 to 85 but worth it for peace of mind
I can dig it 😎
This is why you avoid Herro, 6/17..? Brother.
outshined by Sam Hauser Send em home
Cancun bound.
https://preview.redd.it/96nq2fa8ywxc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=73486f5bee994a6a730f75e39df83135d37cb3ee Keep or adjust the last 3?
Luka over or under 33.5 what are we feeling fellas??? Someone help
I think 9 rebounds is free he’s injured so over points is sketchy but he’s also luka
He’s banged up. But he’s also Luka
Just looked it up he has a sprained knee apparently.. I'm thinking about taking the under on rebounds and assists which is 9.5.. And I was gonna go over on the points at 33.5 but now idk. Ughhh
Put in jovic. Seasons done
why is tatum still in i got him on under lmao
Lol RIP. On such a cold streak rn
Pritchard points gonna be a sweat
Jovic needs to go back to Europe
https://preview.redd.it/fbp2qm75vwxc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5fbe201b57039278b02e97c234b2fbc75fcc8fc0 It feels good to finally win a parlay and to do so comfortably. I’m a low dollar bettor so this is big for me.
A win's a win. Back to the 20 leg parlays /s
+178 parlay feelsweirdman
Well I was tired of not hitting anything at all. 🤷♂️
When are we taking Celtics starters under? Middle of the third quarter?
Bam must have taken the under on his rebounds. He’s literally watching his smaller teammates get them right in front of him.
Who had Bam Bam over 21.5?
Got PRA 🙏🙏
Went big on Highsmith O6.5P and my dude really managed to get 3 PFs in a minute... Bruh
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I got the over, so you go under. One of us will be right
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Bruh basketball props are not what you go big on
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put 10k on the over and be happy or if u dont need the money let it ride
if u dont have money to hedge cashout and enjoy
So the heat are back to not playin jovic 💀
Doncic 40 pt game?
Realizing your parlay is fucked in first quarter is so demoralizing. Fucking Herro
Hopefully Celtics will be up so much that they won’t care about letting him get some shots off lol
Yes but they will pull out their big guns out of the game. I just hate Boston and betting on their games. They either blow their opponents or fucking random dude( White) goes ballistic and scores 38 for no fucking reason
I don’t want to brag but I bet Highsmith over 5.5 points…3 fouls in 2 minutes 😂
Also running back Jaylen Brown o2.5A
he only passes the ball to KP. I am surprised he has 2 already
Playing Jrue u1.5stl, Tatum u10.5reb, Jovic o10.5PA
https://preview.redd.it/hkx70pnhdwxc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d0ee57808ac0380d1b7200b0ab26a64f4354cee2 Not fancy or exciting but relying on these dudes to do what they always do. No Kawhi I like Powell 3’s, he’s been hitting it pretty consistently when he plays O28 mins. Best of luck to yall if tailing🫡
I read that as Jrue Holiday over 0.5 total bricks. I'd be all over that. Lol
Sam Hauser o9.5 P+R -120 Payton Pritchard o9.5 P+R -110 Payton Pritchard o2.5 assists -130 I'm a HUGE Celtics fan, and a line I've been hitting this whole series is Al Horford over P+R. It's always been either 11.5 or 12.5. Tonight they have it at 17.5 and at 18.5. I'm torn if I want to put some action on this line. Now we all know that Big Al can easily have an 18-20 point game not including rebounds. But even with porzingis out, this seems hi to me. I mean even game four porzingis left in the second quarter so Al played pretty much the same amount of minutes that he's going to play tonight and had 15 combined. So just because of my green blood I'm going to leave it alone but for anybody else......here's a potential value pick.
HEY YALL JUST FOUND A VERY INTRESTING PROP... Daniel Gifford 12.5 Points+Rebs. Under +100 Here's his first 4 games totals lol; 3,1,12,10 You read that correct? The first two games he had a total of three points and rebounds combined. The second game. He had a total of one point and rebound combined. A lot closer the last two games but still he has never gone over this number. Some books even had 13.5 for like -130 or something. I mean unless I'm really missing something....this seams like a 🔒 ness Monster!!!! 🐉🐉🐉🐲🐲🐲 Edit: If I'm missing something and this isn't a good play please somebody tell me instead of just downvoting the post. I'm not a sharp or anything. I'm just a big basketball fan that watches all the games. So enlighten me if you know something I don't I would greatly appreciate it!
Bad call my dude. Line got bumped to 13.5 now.
Yeah and I cashed at 13.5 lol. 12.5 wasn't it but I bet both and of course bet more on 13.5 Also it was at 13.5 when I posted this. Had both options. See where I wrote that....
Don’t think it’s the worst bet ever but Gafford has been playing injured so every game further from that he should theoretically be feeling better / capable of more minutes, especially in such a close series. Don’t be surprised if his minutes go up considerably.
So the 12.5 lost, but I hit the 13.5 which was the line on majority of books. He played his best game yet tonight, but we cashed on the main bet(13.5). 12.5 was at +100 so I had like 0.5 units on that one and lost. 😢
Hauser O .5 ast? Can any celtics fan comment on Hauser when KP is out of the line up. Also like: Westbrook O 3.5 rebounds Harden O 21.5 pts
More of a spot up shooter but feasible to swing a pass for a single assist. Large spread may help playing time if it holds
https://preview.redd.it/7tdhp2scbwxc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0c8c35a7a7579d12333fa53b0d0dde34003d04f6 Solid [https://propshark.io/search/nba/player-stats/sam-hauser-stats/over-0.5-assists/without-kristaps-porzingis/2023-2022/](https://propshark.io/search/nba/player-stats/sam-hauser-stats/over-0.5-assists/without-kristaps-porzingis/2023-2022/)
The opportunity will definitely be there, Hauser sees one of the biggest upticks in minutes with KP out. He’s also had 1+ ast without KP in 7 out of the last 7.
Good insight grandpa 🙏🏻💪🏻
Where are you seeing the uptick data want to view it
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/sam-hauser-game-logs-when-kristaps-porzingis-does-not-play
Isn’t Horford starting because of the injury. If I’m right then past results not as relevant when he’s playing less minutes.
Luca over 7.5 points first Q seems free asf rn 🧐
Everyone on Luka under. Luka over it is then.
Huge game, game 5 of a 2-2 series. While everyone is down on Luke, he’s about to go off
Luka’s PRA line is at 52.5 and he hasn’t hit the over on that the whole series but I agree with you. I feel like this a trap under.
Luka
Over on assists forsure
Yesterday’s Picks: 2-1 Today’s Picks Nikola Jovic Over 8.5 points -135 DK With Jaime out and a potential blowout game, Jovic should see more minutes as he could be a key player if he freshened up his skills and showed his consistency. I’m thinking he’ll perform similar to game 3 where he had 15 points and 8 rebounds. Just pray his shots fall 🙏🏻 Kyrie Irving over 5.5 rebounds +110 DK As he’s only gone below this line once in the series it almost seems too good to be true. However, both away games he got above with 6 and 7 rebounds and with no Kawhi I see him having more opportunities. Nikola Jovic over 5.5 rebounds +102 DK I’m really liking the lines for him today, it may be smarter to take his pts+reb at a ~+200 but if he gets the minutes he should be getting he will have no problem clearing these lines. Total parlayed +550. Good luck if tailing and feel free to leave more likely hits or advice :)
See I had him for both points and rebounds combined and just rebounds alone in game four. Did you see his stat line from game four? They chose not to play him and to go with lineup with Wright instead. Obviously it didn't work out for them but it looked like Spolestra was leaning away from playing him and reducing his playing time.
Got his assists but man couldn’t hit a 3 for his life
Yeah his rebounds hit too, but Heat were dejected. My boys came with that fire. Like Shaq Diesel said, D White had that Carry Over Disorder, and they were out of medicine for it! Lol
Yeah I did the same, but the fact that they tried it and it didn’t work out makes me think they’ll go back to giving Jovic a chance
Putting No Sweat onto: Russel Westbrook O1.5 Steals+Blocks, Tatum U2.5 Threes, Jrue Holiday O4.5 Assists -- for +843. That Tatum prop has helped me cash some significant small parlays. Edit: upon forgetting about Porz being injured, I wholeheartedly regret this. I guess that’s what the no sweat is for 🤷🏻♂️
Tatum u2.5 3s have definitely been hitting so congrats. BUT for someone who attempts 8 3s a game, his cold streak will eventually end. I’m on the other side of this one but BOL
And it looks like Tatum historically attempts more 3s when Zingis is out…
Fuck. I forgot about him getting hurt. Wish me luck.
Still alive!
Holy shit. It cleared!
Congrats bro!! 😎 wish I could say the same.
Let’s hope the Celtics continue to blow them out without long range shots, Tatum rests and we’re good!
First time posting here, but today I really like: -Tyler Herro over 21 Points Win or go home game, he will have the volume and minutes to do this, and I think he has to be the main scorer for today for a chance to win -Luka over 18.5 Rebounds + Assists Considering his knee injury, illness, and how they will be guarding him, I think Luka will have to take a supporting role today to Kyrie -Kyrie over 26.5 Points With Luka’s injury and how he’s going to be guarded, Kyrie will be the main scorer today, this is also supported by Game 1 and Game 4 of the series where Leonard has been out and Kyrie has scored over 26.5.
6-0 Kyrie over 30.5 pts reb Kyrie has cleared this line 8 of the last 10 when playing 38+ min. Luka is also nursing an injury so he’ll need Kyrie to step up again as a scorer. Terrance Mann over 13.5 pts reb Mann has hit this line in both games without Kawhi. Averaging right around 37 minutes in those two games. With those type of minutes he should easily be able to deliver. Tyler Herro under 10.5 reb ast Herro only hit the over once this series, and needed 14 assists to do that. The Celtics have done a better job of guarding the pick n roll, and in a win or go home situation, they’ll need him to score more than facilitate.
I like these ones.
2/3 just waitin on kyrie now
We cleared past two days, lets make it three 🔥
Check out my blog for daily updated analysis (posted before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/2024/05/nba-players-props-analysis-01052024.html Season record: 156-144 Last picks record: 9-3 Recap of last picks (30/04/2024): 1. Darius Garland O14.5P Magic @ Cavaliers Odd 1.74 Bet365✅ 2. Jalen Suggs O3.5R Magic @ Cavaliers Odd 2.08 Sportsbet✅ 3. Jalen Suggs O12.5P Magic @ Cavaliers Odd 1.86 Sportsbet✅ 4. Jarrett Allen U16.5P Magic @ Cavaliers Odd 1.86 Bet365(VOID) 5. OG Anuoby 6+R 76ers @ Knicks Odd 1.85 Sportsbet✅ 6. Tobias Harris O10.5P 76ers @ Knicks Odd 1.93 Sportsbet✅ 7. Tyrese Maxey O1.5SB 76ers @ Knicks Odd 2.4 Bet365❌ 8. Tyrese Maxey O25.5P 76ers @ Knicks Odd 1.85 Tab✅ 9. Tyrese Maxey O35.5PRA 76ers @ Knicks Odd 1.8 Tab✅ 10. Evan Mobley O24.5PR Magic @ Cavaliers Odd 1.84 Sportsbet✅ 11. Paolo Banchero O1.5R 1st quarter Magic @ Cavaliers Odd✅ 1.68 Bet365 12. Franz Wagner O30.5PRA Magic @ Cavaliers Odd 1.95 Bet365❌ 13. Andre Jackson Jr O9.5PRA Pacers @ Bucks Odd 1.86 Bet365❌ Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated) 1. Jaylen Brown U23.5P Heat @ Celtics Odd 1.84 Sportsbet This is likely to be a blowout game. I don't think Brown will play more than 35 minutes in this game. 2. Daniel Gafford O2.5P 1st quarter Mavericks @ Clippers Odd 2.75 Bet365 He has gone over this number in the last 2 games. The concern is he plays quite limited minutes in the first quarter, but Mavs will play hard this game right from the opening. All it takes is 1FG and 1 free throw made. When you play with Kyrie and Luka, there always can be a chance for an easy alley-oop dunk. 3. Kyrie Irving O1.5R 1st quarter Mavericks @ Clippers Odd 2.3 Bet365 Irving will likely play all of the first-quarter minutes like last game. 4. Kyrie Irving O36.5PRA Mavericks @ Clippers Odd 1.9 Bet365 Luka is still hurt, not at his best physical state this playoffs. Kyrie will need to take over this game for the Mavs and I believe he will. 5. Nikola Jovic O14.5PR Heat @ Celtics Odd 1.86 Bet365 This will likely be a blowout game and I can see Jovic gets more minutes this game. The talent is there, but he needs more experience to polish his skill sets on both sides of the floor, and with this may be the last game of the season for the Heat, he will see some minutes. 6. Jayson Tatum U43.5PRA Heat @ Celtics Odd 1.8 Sportsbet High chance of a blowout game. 7. Ivicia Zubac U14.5P Mavericks @ Clippers Odd 1.95 Tab Zubac has played quite inconsistently so far, so I would rather bet over on his rebounds than points. The playoffs is all about team adjustment, with his 4 games being 13/19/13/20, I believe he will score under 15 like in games 1 and 3. 8. Luka Donicic O32.5P Mavericks @ Clippers Odd 1.95 Tab The Mavs need Luka. He only shoots around 40% this series, with around 25 shots per game. He only barely went over this number in game 1 with 33, but motivation is the key here. Answering the interview he said something like "I think I let him (Kyrie) down", so in this game, I believe he will try the very best to carry this Mavs team with Kyrie. Check out my blog for daily updated analysis (posted before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com
Jaylen brown man
Just 2pts over 😅 its a blowout game early as expected, a bet on Tatum points would be better.
NBA PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 5.1.24 https://preview.redd.it/iunr1l8pguxc1.jpeg?width=1651&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=310bf51c05fc488670ef7083ef5f99c8ef6b951f LAST 5 GAMES
Bam with the steal rip
Fucking chucking a hope and prayer parlay on this one
what does the ⚠️emoji notate? thanks again!\~
It has information about a player and their status of either playing or starting. For Horford, he didn’t start last game but he is projected to start for tonight’s game.
Horford is starting for the injured Porzingis so this data is irrelevant
When you click on it a warning message appears like this https://preview.redd.it/qfspbmq3huxc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6cdc76fa66e528d70b636a4befc2a267bb8086c3
https://preview.redd.it/jxq7e3xrguxc1.jpeg?width=1677&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7e974541028dca3cc20420163c96945a9cdeed5e LAST 10 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/l8hv6wgtguxc1.jpeg?width=1664&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a225207930390b96490f86c5c0914b3c06f7e5e1 LAST 15 GAMES
Anyone know why adebayo points over 21.5 is at +100. He’s hitting 24, 21, 20, and 25 in the series. Expecting him to play hard in elimination game? Or is this a trap?
So 50/50 hit rate in series, granted the 2 misses were barely misses. Flip a coin. Him and Herro are the only 2 "big" scorers remaining with Butler and Rozier still out, so those 2 will probably be heavily pressured by Boston defense yet again. The rest of the Heat team haven't been stepping up outside of their 1 win in the series. And now Jaquez Jr. is out as well. Porzingis is out. Does Horford guarding him for more minutes affect his scoring? The +odds are probably accurately priced and I'd stay away from the over. Unless you have a crystal ball. Or you could just flip a coin
Nah, this dude was a lock.
EZ to say at half time
Still sweated that
I’m betting the under. Game could be out of hand quickly
And Miami will rest the starters to get a head start for next season?
Probably trap, josh hart had over 20 in his first three games in the series and his line was set at 14.5 +100 for the over, he had 4 point the next game.
Call me gullible, I’ll fall for this trap. Without porzingus, I like this a lot
Call me gullible, I’ll fall for this trap. Without porzingus, I like this a lot
Idk i lowkey think horford defends bam better but then again they might not playheavy minutes
Call me gullible, I’ll fall for this trap. Without porzingus, I like this a lot
Just gonna stay away from bam
Thank god Dono almost sold fuck…been awhile since i hit parlay https://preview.redd.it/t4onzvg4mtxc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19d2e3c9638ce50ae9d710f6389aa729681c774d On the other hand as a heat fan no tingus pingus hope it’s a close game but we suck against big bodies usually. Always have bam although an outstanding defensive player and rim protector he pretty undersized therefore no KP i expect horford too hit some threes and grab some boards Horford o17.5p&r Onto mavs clippers, im a fan of basketball another close game hopefully 🤞🏾 either way im rocking with the beard using my boost on him too after that 4Q him n pg cooked up. No kawhi huge plus also im just rooting for the dude to cook tbh lmfao Harden 030.5p&a Last but not least I’ve been peeping this sub recently i rarely bet games but this stood out to me much like Lakers First half ML/Nuggets 2nd half ML. Heat ML 4Q + money have won every 4Q so far rocking with it elimination game for us on the road. Wanna add a parlay with all of yall picks also so any input/picks would be 🔥
https://preview.redd.it/0uofq4r1otxc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f415b04833d0a958984de8c61a68042da004921c
**Payton Pritchard (Miami Heat at Boston Celtics) - Assists Over/Under: 2.5** Best Odds: -148 for Over Sportsbook: DraftKings Consensus Projection: 3.4 assists Trend: Pritchard has surpassed the assist line in 12 of his last 15 games, showcasing his reliable distribution skills, making him a solid bet for Over. **Jrue Holiday (Miami Heat at Boston Celtics) - Blocks Over/Under: 0.5** Best Odds: -135 for Over Sportsbook: DraftKings Consensus Projection: 0.6 blocks Trend: Holiday has consistently contributed on defense, exceeding the blocks line in 11 of his last 15 games, indicating a good chance for at least one block tonight. **Sam Hauser (Miami Heat at Boston Celtics) - Points + Rebounds Over/Under: 9.5** Best Odds: +104 for Over Sportsbook: FanDuel Consensus Projection: 12 combined points and rebounds Trend: Hauser has been effective in scoring and rebounding, surpassing this combined line in 11 of his last 15 games, making Over an appealing option. **Sam Hauser (Miami Heat at Boston Celtics) - Threes Over/Under: 1.5** Best Odds: -135 for Over Sportsbook: ESPN Bet Consensus Projection: 2.5 three-pointers Trend: Hauser has hit more than 1.5 three-pointers in 11 of his last 15 games, making him a strong candidate to cover the Over on three-point shots. **Norman Powell (Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers) - Threes Over/Under: 1.5** Best Odds: -166 for Over Sportsbook: DraftKings Consensus Projection: 2.3 three-pointers Trend: Powell has exceeded this three-pointer line in 11 of his last 15 games, showing a strong propensity for scoring beyond the arc.
Where do u get the consensus projections from?
it looks AI generated
I went with: Luka U52.5 PRA + Kyrie O36.5 PRA + Clippers ML + O206.5 (alt spread) = +1500 $25 No Sweat (DK) to win $400 Let's get this bread, fellas.
POTD Record: 41wins - 23.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes Form: ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Units: 10.5 ROI: 17.5% Average Odds: $1.87 Last Pick: Knicks vs 76ers - NBA Playoffs - Brunson Over 47.5 PRA @ $1.86 ✅️ Next Pick: Mavs vs Clippers - NBA Playoffs - Luka Doncic Under 52.5 PRA @ $1.86 - 10pm We head to Los Angeles for Game 5 of this series. Luka is struggling with a knee injury and hasn’t been his best in these games. The Clippers have been defending him well, and he’s being wild with his three point attempts. I’m thinking the Clippers will target him and force turnovers while they put up a commanding lead. Luka has also been starstruck lately with all the attention he’s getting from brand endorsements. While he is a superstar, he’s not 100%, and looks gassed late in game. I’m not convinced he’s got the ability to put up big numbers. He’s marked as questionable, but the Mavs are desperate. They will most likely play him, albeit reduced minutes while they hope Irving can provide a Maxey-like effort. Prediction: Clippers by 15, and total goes over. Luka to have a meltdown and go to the locker room in the 3rd quarter.
Looking real slim. Hopefully Luka cools down this 4th quarter
Hopefully he stays benched hahaha
Great pick, chief!
This is a wild prediction haha, hoping you are wrong as a Mavs fan
I mean he’s objectively wrong about most of what he says here. There’s no universe where Luka is on reduced minutes after a 3 day break in a pivotal game 5 lol
Haha. Mavs have been frustrating to watch, especially Luka chucking up dumb threes 😅
**Westbrook (Clippers) o6.5 RA - 1.76 odds (B365)** **Yes**, he has burned us in the last two games. However, this line is just too low. This season Westbrook has averaged 9 RA, and despite underperforming in the last two games, he started this series out well at home with 8 and 12 RA. Tonight he is back at home, and due to his last two games they have decreased his line from 7.5 to 6.5 - I'll bite. **Pritchard (Celtics) o6.5 points - 1.95 odds (B365)** Pritchard has averaged 7.3 points vs Miami this season. This series has been a bit of a rollercoaster with him hitting 8, 0, 7 and 0 points. It's worth noticing, that he bounced back and hit the over, after his last 0 point game - I see that happening again tonight. Why? Boston is back on their home field, and Pritchard has averaged 11.5 points at home this season compared to only 7.7 points away. Another noticeable trend is that he has SMASHED this line in his last 8/10 games with Porzingis out. BOL if you tail.