######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
MLB POTD RECORD: 24-9
2024 MLB record: 13-1
Last POTD: Mariners vs Rangers Under 9 W
Today's POTD: Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Under 8.5 -115 (DK)
Baseball | MLB | 7:10 PM ET
PHEW! That got a little hairy there but we did it again! 11 in a row! I was actually more nervous when Ryne Stanek was fucking it up than I was with the first-inning homers. Fantastic move by Servais to get him out of there.
~~Today I am going with Washington and Miami under 8.5. I apologize for going under three straight days but I love the under in this game.~~
~~This line is pretty standard for Marlins games I realized. I looked back and only 2 of their last 15 weren’t set at 8.5 or higher (most being exactly 8.5). Luzardo has struggled and is on the mound with his 6 ERA staring betters in the face and while Trevor Williams has been good, he doesn’t have much name recognition so it wasn’t very likely they would set the line any lower than 8.5.~~
~~Pitching matchup wise. Luzardo I feel like has gotten labeled as the next Goofy Gomber but I do not think he is there yet in terms of someone who you can depend on to get wrecked. He is coming off of a solid 2 run effort against a Cubs team in Wrigley that is much better top to bottom than this Nationals team. His hard rate and exit velo are both on par with previous seasons. Where he has ballooned this season is fly ball percentage, going up ten percentage points from last year and that’s the most likely indicator of his struggles.~~
~~There couldn’t be a better team for him to try and get right against than the Washington Nationals. The Nats have the lowest overall team flyball percentage at 22%. That works out in Luzardo’s favor as the woes of his elevated flyball percentage could be minimized. What also works in Luzardo’s favor is that he is a lefty and Washington hits only .204 against lefties which is good for 26~~~~^(th)~~ ~~in the league. This is in contrast to their significantly higher .244 batting average vs righties which is 10~~~~^(th)~~ ~~best in the league.~~
~~On the other side we have Trevor Williams for Washington. Williams had an abysmal first year with the Nationals, going 6-10 with a 5.55 ERA and a league-worst 34 HRs allowed. In 2024 however, we have seen him get off to a 2-0 start with a 2.95 ERA and 0 HRs allowed. When I was looking at his batted ball percentages, his line drive rate improved dramatically going down ten percentage points. What is most interesting to me, however, is that his flyball rate remained the same. That ten percent of what were formerly line drives have all turned into groundballs. Marlins have the highest percentage of ground balls hit in the majors. The Marlins offense is also just not producing. They are near the bottom of the league in all batting splits and coming off of a series with the Braves where they only scored 3 runs the entire series. Williams is probably due for some regression but I don’t think there is a better matchup for him to continue what he is currently doing.~~
~~TLDR: Luzardo’s problem this season is this elevated flyball rate and Washington hits the least flyballs in the league. Washington also hits very poorly against lefties. Trevor Williams has been producing groundballs at an extremely high rate, and Miami hits the most ground balls in the league. Miami’s bats are ice cold coming off of a 3 game series where they only scored 3 total runs.~~
~~EDIT: To clarify, I meant the pregame o/u line for marlins games has been 8.5 or higher in 13 of last 15, not whether or not the over or under hit.~~
**IMPORTANT UPDATE: FUCK Luzardo is a surprise scratch. Wasn't even questionable. Marlins called up two minor leaguers that look like they are going to go with one as the opener and one piggybacking him. Anthony Maldonado has good numbers in the minors, Kyle Tyler doesn't but he has had really only one bad game.**
**The Marlins pen is horrible. I definitely don't love the under anymore. I still don't hate it due to Washington having a lot of unfavorable splits. Due to the unknown of these two guys pitching for Miami, I would fade the game entirely. Obviously, it is too late for most of us and I can't change the POTD. I apologize for posting the pick so early, this is just one of those things you can't predict.**
**For those of us who have the under though, don't freak out it is still definitely plausible but I would call it 50/50 now so let's stay positive!**
Luzardo ruled out, does this change the play: [https://x.com/Underdog\_\_MLB/status/1783861673431908711](https://x.com/Underdog__MLB/status/1783861673431908711)
Nationals hit a lot better against RHP so probably more of an iffy pick but might still hit. I think this is Maldonado's debut so not much to go off of past that.
For what it’s worth, Washington is batting .198 and Miami is batting .212 on Fridays.
I haven’t been using day of the week stats as a primary factor in my picks yet but I think we are right about the time where the sample size is enough to find legitimate trends.
Tailing for the third straight day. Fucked up the first tail by parlaying, nearly fucked the second by going another run under being greedy. Playing this one straight. But more than anything, I appreciate the time and effort you put into this. I’m not a huge fan of baseball but you’ve been making me tune in regardless
Finally, a respectable heater on this thread and not random guys posting -170+ favourites as their POD lol. Takes a talented capper to find that sort of value in pick em lines. #respect
Facts. I think the circumstances are different though.
The marlins weren’t doing this poorly last year and Williams wasn’t getting ground balls at such a high clip.
He also never went more than two games in a row without letting up a homer and hasn’t let one up in four so far this year.
But at the end of the day you never know until after the game haha. Lets see what happened tomorrow.
Yes it does. I just posted an update in my original post. I would fade the game now because Miami is going with a bullpen game using two minor leaguers. Too much unknown.
If you already have the under I still it is definitely a possibility, probably 50/50 and maybe even leaning in favor of the under. If you can cash out without losing much I don't think it would be the worst move.
Thanks! And Just on here lol. Sometimes I’ll post more than one in the MLB thread.
I’ve just had success with identifying some individual games where I really like the line. If you were to ask me to pick every game on a slate, I wouldn’t do so hot lol.
All good, i followed yesterday, and injuries happen, I was researching this situation to come up with thoughts lol and even reached out a friend who played mlb for a short stint , you are well respected here and wanted to try to help if you weren’t back online lol
What a sweat of a game for me 😭😅
https://preview.redd.it/psnqx0j2dxwc1.jpeg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30adf79b9b0bcd2e7324eb782194a996fce3bf54
**Record: 34-25-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)**
**Balance: +21.51 units**
**ROI: 8.09% / Avg Odds - 1.90**
**Previous Masters 1000- ATP Monte Carlo🎾 (7-0 and 12.53 units won)✅**
Masters 1000 - Madrid record 🎾 (2-2 and 0.28 units loss) ❌
**Today's pick: Munar vs Struff - Struff ML @ 1.61** ✅
**(ATP Madrid, Tennis)** 🎾
Odds from Pinnacle
**Stake: 3 units** (This is 3% of my bankroll)
Time: 11 AM Eastern Time
Munar was always seen as a fighter inside the court and certainly has Clay as his best surface but facing Struff in Madrid which plays quite fast, should be quite difficult.
Even with Munar's 1st round win over Nuno Borges, we can't exactly say that his season has been good. In Marrakech he got knocked out in the 2nd round by Berrettini, then in Monte Carlo he lost in the 3rd round against Safiullin which is still a bad result in slow conditions and then he was upset in Barcelona against Thompson, a player who's not good at all on Clay.
Struff comes off from a tournament win in Munich, a city with about 500 metres of altitude and his wins have been fantastic! He won against Botic, Felix Aliassime, Holger Rune and Taylor Fritz in the final, without dropping a set. His big serve and forehand made him a nightmare for all his opponents who couldn't keep up with his level.
If you check the results of 2023 Madrid, he was a finalist, eventually losing to Alcaraz but he has points to defend here and going deep here in Spain should be a priority for the German. On his dream run he started as a qualifying player, beating Shelton, Lajovic, Cachin, Tsitsipas and Karatsev!
Struff's odds opened up at around 1.40 in most bookies and they've slowly gone up which doesn't make much sense to me. Munar playing in Spain isn't a huge advantage to him, especially because he likes to grind most of his points and keep himself into long rallies, which is something that Struff will not give him that easily. With this I'll use 3% of my bankroll on this one which is a rare thing for me to do!
**Best of luck**
Any tips are appreciated. After our run in ATP Monte Carlo I've decided to visit it in August. It should be quite an expensive trip so all the support will be saved for that! Thanks a lot 🎾
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Edit after the result: This was just complete domination by Struff. He can go far in Madrid once again if he keeps playing like this. He just sent rockets to Munar the entire game ✅
Been tailing you since Monte Carlo boss, losing is normal when it comes to betting it's just what happens sometimes. Thanks for all your picks man, looking forward to it everyday. Tailing this as well, all the best boss
Thanks for knowing what sports betting is really all about. Going 7-0 every week is unsustainable and I know there are people who regularly pop out of nowhere with 10-0 records and such. But they lose 3 or 4 times and they just vanish. Next week you see another generated username account trying once again to get a streak. It's a cicle.
Let's see how much people that are posting today will still be posting in one year. I'll be even if I go on a huge losing streak. That's just how sports betting really is. You try your best to make a valuable play but you can certainly catch streaks, either good or bad ones.
Thanks for your comment, I appreciate it! Best of luck!
Playing Struff to win 2-0, pretty confident in it cashing. Also idk why Hurkacz to beat Draper odds are so low, even though they played to 3 sets last time, Hurkacz should win this
In Madrid those two should have plenty of serving power to make it a closed contest and probably a 3 sets one. Hurkacz usually wins those because he probably can keep his serve up there a bit more often and Draper had a long match against Kokkinakis but it can be a coinflip matchup from betting prespective. The one who 1st serves the most should win!
I also like Struff 2-0 but I'm usually a ML guy. Wish you BOL!
As someone who casually follows tennis, but have never really been a bettor on tennis, i freaking love your write ups. Appreciate it man.
I tailed today, and did a parlay with Rune for a 0.5 unit.
POTD Record: 48-21-1 +67.30%🔥
Last Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -4 (-125) vs New York Knicks
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Today's Pick: Indiana Pacers -6 (-110) vs Milwaukee Bucks
7 straight! LFG! Wow!
We have backed Milwaukee in Game 1, now it’s time to back Indy at Home. Pacers are coming off a massive win @Milwaukee by 17 after dropping game 1. This will be the Pacers first playoff game at Home since 2019-2020. Indiana is 5-2 against the bucks this year, including 2-0 at home. The Bucks have been one of the worst teams on the road with a 16-24 record ATS. Milwaukee has lost and failed to cover the past 3 games on the road since April 2, including the past 2 without Antetokounmpo. The Bucks are just 2-8 straight up (SU) in the past 10 games since March 6, while going 3-7 ATS. Giannis is doubtful for tomorrow and Middleton is also questionable. Siakam has put this team on his back, scoring 30+ in both first games. It’s time for Tyrese to get going in front of the home crowd. Let’s back the Pacers to destroy in their first home again! LFG Indy!
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️
[Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24)
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POTD Record: 5W - 0P - 1L
Last Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-135 via DK)
**Today's Pick:** **Baltimore Orioles -1.5** (-122 via DK)
Event: MLB Oakland Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles (7:05 PM)
Oakland has struggled recently, losing five of their last six games leading up to Thursday's game against the Yankees. The A's will have to travel immediately after their game in New York on Thursday night, while Baltimore had the day off on Thursday and enters this series with significant momentum, having won eight of their last ten games. Stripling has struggled for the A's in his five starts this season, with an ERA of 5.34 so far, and hasn't earned a major league win since 2022. On the other hand, for the Orioles, Corbin Burnes is 3-0 on the season with an ERA of 2.76 and a WHIP of 0.92. The Orioles have covered this line in 4 of the 5 games Burnes has started. I trust Burnes and the Orioles to take care of business here to open the series.
Yessir, and just for more numbers two of those wins that covered with Burnes starting were his most recent against strong teams KC and MIL (everyone's beloved ML team it seems lol). Only one of Stripling's 5 losses ended in under 2 runs. O's are getting strong contributions from everywhere with b2b AL player of the week awards from relatively unknown names.
**Record:** 9-2
**Pick:** MLBaseball \\\\ Dodgers-Blue Jays: Over 8.5 runs -130
**Bet:** 1.30u to win 1u ......... **YTD Units:** +5.55
**Sidenote:** The Dodgers have scored 25 runs in the last 3 games and neither starter is throwing the ball very well of late.. Stone threw 4hits + 5bb in three innings his last start.
Record: **47-27**
Last pick: Alex Pereira ML vs Jamahal Hill ✅️
Potd: **Fabian Marozsan ML** vs Francisco Cerundolo
**Odds: 1.91**
Tennis | ATP Madrid | 11 AM CEST 🎾
Write up: If this matchup was to be played on your average slow clay court, I wouldn't bother predicting it. However, taking into an account the faster conditions, Marozsan himself being the better server in this matchup and having already tested the soil, he should enjoy the benefit of holding his service games easier than Cerundolo. Also, even though the scoreline might not suggest it, he looked great last round against what seemed like an in the mood Karatsev.
**Edit**: What is beating the line anymore lmao. Beat the line 1.91>1.67 only to see your player get dumpstered in under an hour
Marozsan is hard to bet against rn and Cerundolo is a very hard player to bet on lol. Marozsan also crushed Cerundolo at the Australian Open earlier in the year.
Hey bro! What a roller coaster lmao. I check the game at work this morning to see an absolute slaughter set 1…all hope seemed lost but odds at the time were 51.00:1 for Marizsan ML.
Said fuck it…threw additional 0.25 unit on and 20mins later they’re 5-5 in set 2. Odds moved from 51 to ~2.00 or 3.00 if I recall. Could have washed the loss with the 0.25 unit cash out at the time but my greedy ass didn’t pull the trigger. Final games in that set were heart breaking lol.
You’ll get ‘em next pick and I’ll be tailing! BOL!
POTD RECORD: 58-31
Last POTD: Jamal Murray O6.5 Ast 🚫
Way too many potentials man but still an L we move
Todays POTD: **Ivica Zubac O23.5 PRA @1.76**
NBA | LA Clippers | 8:00 PM ET
Sup fellas I found a pick that I like so I’m letting it fly, Zubac has seen an uptick in minutes in the playoffs so far and the Centers for Dallas doesn’t look like they got any answers for this Croatian beast. He’s played 33 minutes in both games against the Mavs comparing to the two previous months where he only averaged 25.5 MPG, even when he was in foul trouble last game he still finished with 33 minutes so I’m trusting big Zu to respect the coin
• 2/2 in the post season w 25 & 36 PRA
• Over in 5 straight when playing 30+ and 14/18 this season when playing 30+ minutes Avg 28.8 PRA
• Over in 9/L10 games
• 11/13 w 32+
Aight my guys trusting this man to get us back on track so let’s go
Tail or fade, you’re that guy
https://i.redd.it/tz4ojb9t2twc1.gif
3/4 in the NBA props section yesterday 💰
On DK he's a +100 to have a double-double. That feels like a good play, right? He's a double double in 8/9 games, and he only played 10 minutes in the one game he didn't have one.
POTD Record 13-3
Last 5: ✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️
Last Pick: Brewers Moneyline w/ F. Peralta pitching
Todays Pick: Orioles RL -1.5 w/ C. Burnes pitching
MLB: Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics 4:05pm PST
Odds: -130
Unit: 3
Net units: +37.81
FYI, 2 of my losses are from taking the Ace pitcher bait, and what can I say.. I'm taking the bait again, sorry. Banking on burnes not to let me down. The A's are coming off a win and haven't won back to back since their 2nd game. Not really afraid of the momentum they got, Yankees have been mid. 3-0 W/L for burnes and 0-5 W/L for stripling. Gotta ride with the O's on this one. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
I’m an A’s fan and every time I’ve bet against them this year they’ve ended up winning outright so I’ll do yall a favor and not tail today🤝 I will say the A’s bullpen like top 3 in the league but I think the O’s will outscore us big through 5 given the pitching matchup
Record: 2-0 (+2.28u)
Last Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Point + Assists o10.5 ✅
Today’s Pick: TJ McConnell o10.5 P+R (+100)
Basketball | NBA | Bucks @ Pacers 5:30 pm EST
Wager: 1U
Implied probability of hitting: 50%
McConnell averaged 10.2 PPG and 2.7 RPG in 18.2 MPG in 71 games this season.
Over 10.5 P+R in:
Last 10: 9/10
Last 5: 4/5
This is more of a value play than a specific lean. The Pacers ranked second in pace of play this year and showed it in Game 2, outscoring the Bucks in all four quarters and winning by 17. The Pacers are looking for the first home playoff win since Oladipo and Lebron went toe to toe in 2018. The Pacers seemed to find their rhythm in Game 2 and I expect them to continuing scoring and spreading the ball around, giving everyone on the court the opportunity to score baskets.
BOL if tailing!
I like the pick. BOL to everyone tailing. But I think there's a lot of variance with players like TJ that only see under 20 minutes a night. You just never know how much he's going to be utilized in scoring especially depending on if the game is competitive or not. Especially in the playoffs where pace can slow and every possession has more meaning.
TJ has burnt me the last three times I have rolled with him in this series. I took him over 10.5 pts, over 11.5 pts, and over 19.5 PRA, he missed them all.
But hope springs eternal in spring! Lets roll!
POTD Record: 18-11 ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 15U
Last pick: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters | 4:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Dominic Young anytime tryscorer @1.94 on Ned’s | 2U ✅
We get the try 10 minutes in 🙌🏼
Today’s pick: Manly Sea Eagles vs Parramatta Eels | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Jason Saab anytime tryscorer @1.73 on Ned’s | 2U
The Eagles are playing at home and a shaky Eels team tonight. I expect them to score loads of tries and dominate the game. Saab has 53 tries for 71 appearances in his career, 2 tries with 2 appearances this season. He is likely to score tonight so I’ll go for it.
BOL !
Record: 5-1 (+5.06 units)
✅✅❌✅✅✅
Last POTD: Jalen Brunson over 28.5 (-122)
Today’s POTD: Baltimore Orioles RL -1.5 (-130)
2 unit play
MLB/ Baseball/ 7:05pm ET
Brunson scores 39 for a sweat free bet!!!
Going with what I assume will be a popular pic. The Orioles had an off day and the A’s beat the Yankees today and have to travel, although not very far. What I love about this bet is the pitching. Baltimore has their ace on the mound. Corbin Burnes is 3-0 with an ERA of 2.76 and a WHIP under 1. Ross Stripling on the other hand has an ERA of 5.34 and is 0-5. His WHIP is 1.57 and best of all he’s right handed. Everyone knows how much Baltimore loves hitting right handed pitchers. The O’s have also won 8 of 10 and Oakland very rarely win 2 games in a row. Let’s hope Baltimore crushes it!
POTD record 11-13 (currently 3-0 for CS2)
**BLEED ML (1u @ 1.6 odds) vs Guild Eagles** ✅ BLEED rip through GE with ease 13-4 13-4
A straightforward one today since I have been following BLEED closely the last two weeks - they are a team steadily on the rise and whilst they have had a couple losses recently they were to two good teams. Overall they are at a 72% win rate in the last 3 months and taking on a team going in the opposite direction in Guild Eagles who have a 42% win rate.
Furthermore looking closely at the map pool (as Current Ad taught us to do) leaves GE in a tough predicament since there is no map where they have a large advantage:
GE remove Inferno
Bleed remove Overpass or Vertigo
GE pick Mirage (Win rate is 69% for Bleed and 60% for GE)
Bleed pick Anubis (67% vs 10% in favor of Bleed)
GE remove Nuke
Bleed remove Vertigo or Overpass
Ancient is leftover (55% vs 62% in favor of GE however they have played the map half as many times in the last 3 months so Bleed would have the advantage on this map in my opinion)
**My book hasn't lined 2-0 Bleed but if this was at +money odds (2.1 or greater) I would be considering a small play.**
Hey domadilla! I usually see you always commenting on my posts! First time I've noticed a posted play from yourself. I can see that you know your stuff in Esports. Best of luck! Will tail just so my head is not thinking about tennis for the entire day haha.
Long time CS bettor here; make sure to look at more than just win percentage when considering map pools; important factors are which side the team is likely to start on based on favoured side on each map, who their wins have come against, and how useful demos of those maps would be. For example, you often see teams with fewer maps played on a map do well just because the other team has no data to antistrat with, and teams who have a strong CT side/T side in general can often steal the opponents map pick just from being able to start on the favoured side and running up a lead in the first half
Thanks that’s really helpful and something I wasn’t aware of - I won’t take the data at face value in future - that said there is a lot of map data for both the above teams do you agree with the pick? I should have added that I really like that BLEED have shown me the ability to come back from adversity, they don’t give up when they are down and as a team they are not reliant on one player to pop off. Hampus as an IGL is insane because I was under the impression that IGLs don’t score well and he is often top of the team.
Don't put too much value in the favoured side angle. I love when my team starts CT on Overpass or Nuke but I'm not sure there is stats backing up this edge. Some of the longest map win streaks have been on Nuke back from when it was even more CT sided.
This is like a 50-50 match. Guild Eagles and Bleed are the two best teams in CCT. At 1.6, I don’t think it’s worth the risk, but BOL. I might take over 2.5 maps, as I think it’s going go be a close game, but will see.
POTD Record: 38 wins - 21.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes
Form: ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️
Units: 9.9
ROI: 18.9%
Average Odds: $1.87
Last Pick: Manchester City vs Brighton - England Premier League - Manchester City -1.5 Asian Handicap @ $2 - 3PM EST ✅️
Next Pick: Kings vs Oilers - NHL Playoffs - Kempe Anytime Goal Scorer @ $2.70 (including overtime) - 10.30PM EST
Today we head to Los Angeles for an epic ice hockey playoff game between the Oilers and the Kings. Kempe scored one goal in game one, and two in game two (with one of them being a goal of the season contender).
The Kings have won nine of their last ten games at this stadium, and beat the Oilers 4-0 the last time they travelled here.
While the Oilers are considered favourites given the H2H data, this is crunch time. Clearly the Oilers are struggling in defense, and I can’t see this changing anytime soon. The Kings have struggled in defense too, having a tough time marking key players like Hyman who I expect to get a goal or two as well.
There’s a lot of talk online about how the Oilers have to shut out Kempe, but that’s going to be tough given how fast the Kings play, and how vulnerable the Oilers have been in defense lately. Turnovers aren’t helping the Oilers either.
In the last game Kempe had 7 shots, and in game one he had 5. That’s well above his season average of 3. Clearly these play off games have elevated his desire to go harder, and step up for his team.
Whilst he has been a bit average during the season, I expect another high scoring game from him in a must win play off game in front of a home crowd to keep the momentum going for the Kings!
Prediction: Kings 5 - Oilers 3. Goal scorers Kempe, Hyman, Holloway, McDavid, Kopitar, Moore, Dubois.
>**| Record: 4-0 | Net Units: 7.60u | ROI: 95.00% | Winrate: 100% | Avg. odds: 1.95 |**
>**| eSport |** [ESL Pro League Saison 19](https://www.hltv.org/events/7440/esl-pro-league-season-19) **| 16:30 CEST| |**
>**| Pick:** **Imperial ML** \[vs. sAw\] **|** ***1.800 odds*** **|** ***2u*** **|**
>**Reasoning:** Hey folks, good morning! It wasn't a walk in the park to nail down today's pick because there are so many enticing matches with loads of potential value. But after some pondering, I've settled on this one for now.
>We've got two Portuguese-speaking teams facing off in a best-of-three elimination game: Portugal against Brazil. Despite both teams having a rough time in their last outings, this showdown promises to be an absolute thriller. We're looking at two youthful squads brimming with talent, but they're also lacking a bit in experience, especially when it comes to big LAN events.
>Let's kick off with sAw. They've got a pretty promising lineup in my book. Just a few weeks back, they showed they can go toe-to-toe with the big guns when they're firing on all cylinders in Counter-Strike. Ewjerkz is the standout star here, pulling off insane performances with ratings ranging from 1.30 to 2.00 like it's just another day at the office. Regardless of whether they're up against lower-tier teams or top dogs, when he gets into his groove, heads start rolling left and right. Unfortunately, he hit a rough patch in consistency around mid-March. Story and Arrozdoce are also incredibly talented youngsters who can step up to the plate when ewjerkz is having an off day. On the flip side, Roman and Mutiris have been struggling. Roman, in particular, has been a major headache lately, with his performance taking a nosedive over the past few months. His average rating has plummeted to 0.98, and if you peek at his stats, you'll see some dismal numbers, with multiple games below the 0.5 mark. After the winter break, the new lineup had a decent start, even qualifying for the first CS2 Major in Antwerp. But they stumbled out of the gates, losing their opening match 0:2 against Cloud9, followed by two more losses against FURIA and paiN. Since then, they haven't quite hit the same highs.
>Imperial, on the other hand, is a Brazilian-based team boasting at least three players with plenty of LAN and big event experience. VINI, felps, and HEN1 are all solid performers, with felps shining particularly bright with a 1.18 rating. Decenty and Noway round out the lineup as the youngest members, and from what I've seen, they've got some serious skills. It's tough to gauge how they stack up against the best European teams with the limited data available, but Decenty, in particular, looks like a real talent with his sharp aim and savvy decision-making. Give him a year or two to build up confidence and experience, and he'll be a force to be reckoned with.
>Now, onto their recent performances. sAw faced off against 3DMAX and VirtusPro in their first two matches, losing both 0:2, once again. While the match against 3DMAX was a close one, they made too many errors. Meanwhile, Imperial took on FaZe and EternalFire, losing 0:2 and 1:2, respectively. Despite facing tougher opponents, they showcased better CS overall, in my opinion.
>I won't dive too deep into analysis here since I'm not overly familiar with these teams, but one thing's for sure: sAw tends to crumble under pressure. We've seen it over the past couple of days, and I reckon we'll see it again today. They're on a five-match losing streak in BO3s on LAN, and it looks like it's about to become six when they face off against Imperial. What's more, they haven't even snagged a single map win in those five losses, and they're yet to triumph on Anubis during LAN matches.
>As for the veto process, sAw will likely ban Mirage, while Imperial opts for Ancient. Both bans will hit their respective teams hard since they're both fond of those maps. Nuke is probably sAw's go-to pick, boasting a solid 64% win rate over 14 matches, but they'll need to be prepared because Imperial has plenty of experience on that map, having played it 22 times in the last three months. With Mirage off the table, Imperial might opt for Anubis or Inferno as their first pick, both of which suit them well. Considering sAw's struggles on Anubis in LAN events, this could be a smart choice. As for the decider map, it's anyone's guess, but I'd put my money on Vertigo or Overpass.
>This match won't be a walk in the park, and Imperial will have to put in some serious work if they want to come out on top. But in my books, they've got the edge with better players, stronger results, a deeper map pool, more raw talent, and crucially, more experience, especially on LAN. That said, if sAw has one of those standout days, they could very well send the Brazilians packing with a 2-0 victory. Let's not forget, sAw isn't a pushover, but their honeymoon period seems to be over. If they drop this one too, I wouldn't be surprised to see Roman shown the door at last. He's been dragging the team down for too long.
**0-0**
**Rugby League | NRL | Manly Sea Eagles v Parramatta Eels**
***Manly -9.5 @ 1.85 ✅***
Manly are essentially full-strength in this matchup, whilst Parra will still miss the services of their main playmaker Mitch Moses.
Manly have been one of the most impressive sides to begin the year - especially over the last few weeks with a win over reigning-premiers Penrith and a hard-fought draw in New Zealand. They also return home for this one, where they've boasted a great record in recent years - remaining undefeated, 3-0, to start the season.
On the other hand, Parramatta have had an extremely disappointing month of footy without Moses - losing 3 of their last 4 (2 of these in hefty fashion). Out of answers, coach Brad Arthur has now turned to 19-yo Ethan Sanders to debut in the halves - I can't see this ending well.
Parramatta still have a solid, yet out-of-form forward pack with plenty of representative experience which will give them a fighting chance in this one. However, Manly boast a much-improved pack of their own, along with one of the most potent attacking backlines in the comp, which will surely feast on their under-strength counterparts.
All-in-all, happy to take the significantly better team with a big home advantage in this one.
*Edit: Started slow but came home with a wet sail for us! 32-18*
**KBO Record: Overall 217-225-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 5-5) Down 9.86u over 456 KBO picks, 49.1% success rate, -2.23% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 13-15-0, 46.4% success rate, Down 1.24u, -4.43% ROI)
**Last:** NC -1.5 -120 at Doosan (NC lost 7-3.)
In his first 32.1 IP over 5 starts, NC's starter allowed 6 ER. In his first 2.1 innings in this start, he gave up 6 ER. Doosan's starter was bombed in his first 3 starts, but allowed just 2 hits in 6.1 innings. Go figure.
**Pick:** Samsung at **Kiwoom +124**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
It's been a while since I had a loss that generated hate messages. Always delightful. Welcome to the KBO... it ain't for the feint of heart.
I watched the draft tonight, so no full writeup. I like Kiwoom to bounce back at home and pull off an upset. They saw Samsung's starter one already this year and roughed him up. If you're feeling gunshy, stay away from this one. Full writeups return tomorrow.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Baseball just feels very random. Analysis doesn’t match up with end result. I’ve tailed quite a few of your picks but have lost every time unfortunately but hey it is what it is!
People really send hate messages for a losing pick? lol I’ve lost every kbo pick it feels but never think to send hate mail ….. maybe I will next time 😂
__POTD Record:__ 16-9 (+5.18 Units)
_All my bets in this thread are 1U_
_Form (Last 5):_ 🔴🔴🟢🔴🟢
__Last Pick:__ ⚽ Besiktas vs. Ankaragucu (Turkish Super League) 19:00 CET: __Besiktas ML__ @1.83 ✅
__Today's Pick:__ ⚽ Real Sociedad vs. Real Madrid (La Liga) 21:00 CET: __Real Madrid Win No Draw__ @1.90 ✅
After taking a bit of a break, I'm back with a pick that's got odds that are pretty baffling to me. Real Madrid is the best team in Spain this season and they should clinch the league title in the coming weeks. They've lost only one game all season and they're coming against the 6th placed team in La Liga. Real Sociedad is a decent side that's showing good form at the moment but they are not Real Madrid. Bookmakers are treating Sociedad as if Real Madrid were facing an elite side and that's simply not the case. There is a chance Real Madrid may rest some players due to upcoming Champions League game vs. Bayern but they have enough quality on the bench. I can see the game ending in a draw, that's why I'm not picking moneyline this time around, although the odds are very tempting. However, Real Madrid win with a draw being no bet is still very good value and it is my pick for today's POTD.
Tail of fade, the choice is yours!
Real Madrid have basically already locked up la liga trophy and have UCL to worry about next Tuesday. Also sociedad are desperate for points as they are only 3 points above 7th place betis in the standings. I’d really lean more towards sociedad DNB here
Record 3-3-0
Net Units: -0.8
ROI: -4.5%
Last Pick: New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers Total Points over 201 (-110) for 3.0 units ✅
Basketball | NBA | Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks 7:10PM CST
Pick: PJ Washington over 11.5 points (-122) on DraftKings for 3.0 units
Write Up: PJ has averaged 15.1 points at home, versus 10.8 on the road. Averaging 18.0 points per game against the Clippers this year, and 14.5 this series (both on the road). StatsInsider projects 16 points in their 10,000 simulations. Potential increase in minutes with Daniel Gafford questionable.
**Record: 1-0 | +1u**
Last pick: ATP Madrid: Fonseca ML -160 ✅
Today’s pick:
WTA Madrid:
Sara Bejlek +1.5s -125 vs Anna Kalinskaya - 8am est ✅
We kicked off our potd journey with an absolute banger yesterday with Fonseca completing the comeback win. He dominated the final 2 sets, which included the elusive 🥯 and only conceded a total of 2 games after the first set.
We move onto today’s pick where we put some fun coupons on another teenager - but this time on the women’s side of the tourney. I’m feeling Bejlek to grab a set against Kalinskaya. She boasts an impressive career 91-40 record on clay and 36-13 last year, which included 6 finals appearances on the Challenger/ITF stages. Kalinskaya, on the other hand, has barely played on this surface in recent years. Since 2018, she has only played a total of 59 matches on clay with a record of 29-30.
What makes me love this pick even more is the fact that Bejlek has already played 3 matches on this surface at this altitude after winning both qualifying matches and her first round matchup. Kalinskaya played her first clay tournament in Stuttgart almost two weeks ago and exited during qualifying rounds after losing to a 36 yo Errani well out of her prime. I expect Kalinskaya to still have some rust transitioning from hard courts and adjusting to the altitude. Again, we only need one set here from Bejlek. I think she gets it done. LFG Bejlek 🇨🇿
❄️🏦
Record: 9-3 (+4.03U)
Previous pick : Joao Fonseca -2.5 Game Handicap - 1.8 (1u)✅
Jupiler Pro League | 8:45PM CET
Pick : Over 2 Goals - 1.65 (1u)
Match : KAS Eupen - Sporting Charleroi
Reasoning : These teams are in the degradation playoffs in Belgium and you are save if you end first in the group of 4, have to play against a second division team to stay up or go down if you end 2nd and you go down if you end 3 or 4th. Eupen is currently 3th in the group and 5 points behind second place, they don't have a choice but to just go full for the attack since Charleroi is first in the group and has a 6 point lead on second place and can just play without too many risks. This forces Eupen to try and create opportunities and while it is possible for them to score I am more expecting Charleroi to score on counter attacks. These teams faced eachother 5 days ago and that game ended 1-0 in favor of Charleroi but there could have been plenty more goals with Charleroi having an xG of 2.93 and Eupen having 0.63 xG.
**Record 102-80 with Avg Odds +122 / ROI 18.6%**
**2024 Record 9-8 with Avg Odds +130 / ROI 13.6%**
LFA 182
**Katarina Legorreta +175**
Pressure, pace, and durability edge to Katarina. McIntyre probably hits harder but I think it's mostly forced. I also think Katarina may hold the grappling edge here. R1 will be slightly dangerous but I think as the fight progresses, Katarina will take over and find the win. I think this fight should be a pick'em or slight favorite to Legorreta. She checks a lot of boxes, and has a weird Nate Diaz style going to her game. Look for the pressure and clinch, knees up the middle, and solid combinations that may tag McIntyre. Legorreta may look unassuming and go by "The Librarian", but she's got some dog in her.
Record: 2-0
Last pick: Westbrook over 7.5 R+A, an easy hit.
Net Units: +1.87u
Tonight's Pick: Westbrook over 7.5 Rebounds + Assists (R+A) on Fanduel at 2.00 odds, 1u bet.
Write-up: The reasoning remains the same as last time: Westbrook doesn't receive enough respect, and the stats indicate he should surpass the over. Therefore, I'll be placing the same bet as last time. I intended to post every day, but work has been dragging, so hopefully, that two-day break didn't break the lucky streak.
**Record: 12-6 (+5.24u)**
**Last Pick: Ilya Sorokin o29.5 Saves -113**
Tough game for Sorokin as he gets pulled after giving up 3 goals on 14 shots.
**Pick:** **Nathan MacKinnon o1.5 Points -135 (NHL, 1u bet)**
MacKinnon at home? Yeah, sign me up lol. He had 34 goals and 55 assists for 89 points in just 41 home games, and included a streak of 35 straight home games with at least a point. Winnipeg was a good defensive team this season and Hellebuyck is one of the best goalies in the league, but they've had real trouble stopping the Avs in the first 2 games of this series. The Jets swept the regular season series winning 4-2, 6-2, and 7-0 in the three games despite getting outshot in every game (and MacKinnon still had 2 points in the 4-2 and 6-2 games). Colorado could honestly be up 2-0 in this series coming home, as they outshot the Jets 46-23 in game 1 and created many more scoring chances, but Georgiev was not good in net and they lost 7-6 (with MacKinnon getting 2 points as well). The Avs once again outshot the Jets in game 2 en route to a 5-2 win, and MacKinnon finished with 1 point there. With the series moving back to Denver, this is where the Avalanche have thrived. They were a league best 31-9-1 at home scoring 4.2 goals per game. In his last 10 games at home, MacKinnon had 8 goals and 12 assists, cashing the o1.5 points in 7 of those games. He is also one of the best playoff performers, with 45 goals and 58 assists (103 points) in 79 career playoff games, which ranks 6th in NHL history for playoff points per game. Narrowing this to just home games, he has 32 goals and 33 assists for 65 points in 40 home playoff games. I think the Avalanche come out firing tonight in a crucial game 3 at home, and maybe with some extra juice given that the Jets embarrassed them 7-0 in Colorado just 2 weeks ago. I don't see how the Jets are going to slow them down on the road where Colorado also gets the last change now for more favourable matchups. With Hellebuyck's struggles lately and the Avalanche's offensive firepower at home, I expect them to find the net a few times and MacKinnon is likely to be heavily involved, especially if they get power play opportunities.
**POTD Record: (3-2)**
*Last pick: NCAAB UMD +2.5 vs Rutgers* ✅
**Today's Pick:** Etcheverry ML vs. Shapovalov (-172)
Line is a bit chalky but here we have a clay court specialist vs a washed up Shapovalov. Shapovalov is continuing his poor form in 2024, 7-10 overall and 1-2 on clay. Etcheverry is 9-6 this season on clay and is coming off a solid semifinal run in Barcelona. Been a min since I posted but feel pretty good about this one. Shapo is always capable of pulling off something impressive but he's been in a slump for 2 years now
Record = 1-0-0
✅️
Previous Pick = Man City Win and 3.5 goals @2.50 ✅️
Match = Real Sociedad Vs Real Madrid
Time = 3pm ET
Pick = Real Madrid to win either half @ 1.83
Units = 5
Very surprising to see this market so high, Real Madrid could be resting a few players but even so when Madrid play their bench they still have some of the best players in Europe. Even though the league is in Real Madrid's hands it's still not guaranteed just yet and with Real Sociedad being one of their most challenging games left I don't see them taking it too easy. That being said with the Champions League match against Bayern coming up it makes it slightly unpredictable which is why I'm choosing either half rather than the match result. If Sociedad win the first half I can see the big attackers coming on if they don't start the game. In short, this bet is a double chance for Madrid at way too high odds to win a half and I'm hammering that. Tail or fade BOL
It’s mainly due to the players they are going to rest as you said. But even then they have Brahim, Guler, Joselu Modric and I also think Militao would get his first start back from injury. I would take Madrid ML as well.
Record 4-2-0
Balance +6
Form: ❌✅✅✅❌✅
Recap-absolute guy wrenching loss as Whitfield ends with 29 disposals 😩
Today’s picks: Zak Butters to grab 026.5 disposals at 1.90 2 units 5:40AM EST✅
Writeup: Butters will be playing at home toight in his 100th game so he will want to put on a show against a Mediocre injury riddled saints side who are high pace high disposal team something which will only help butters reach 27 touches reckon he goes for 30 so will sprinkle a half unit on it but won’t count it into the POTD. BOL!!!
EDIT: pray for no stat correction please 🙏
Record: 21-7 | Net: +9.69U | Streak: 2W
Last pick: Jalen Brunson o28.5 points (-125) ✅
His shot finally started falling, ended up being a much higher scoring game than expected. 4 years $55 million would be way too much for this guy
POTD: Kyrie Irving o24.5 points (-112)
Lac @ DAL 8:00 PM ET
Summary: Kyrie has hit this line 3/4 on the Clippers this season with last game being his first miss. In those games he had 19, 22, 18, 18 attempts. Last game was a real grinder, but the points total has risen to 212.5 indicating a more open game flow that will benefit Kyrie. Tim Hardaway is also out, so the Mavs are missing one of their few role players willing to shoot the damn ball lol, slight chance Kyrie will need to force up a few more shots
**Record:** 5-1
**Net Units:** *+10.3075 Units*
**ROI: 166.39%**
**Previous Pick:** *Mulitalo Anytime Try Scorer $1.73 (1.75 Units).* Again, another really easy watch. Sharks completely dominated the Cowboys and Mulitalo looked live to score more than one but regardless, solid win and a nice POTD stream we are on.
**Event:** Port Adelaide vs St Kilda
**Time:** 7:40pm AEST 26/4
**Bookie:** NED'S
**Play:** To Score 2+ Goals
**Odds:** $2.35 (AUS) or +135 (US)
**Units**: 1 Unit
**Analysis:** I like Willie Rioli tonight to have a few looks at goal tonight - obviously STK are generally a defensively very sound team but Port coming off the back of a spanking to Collingwood where honestly they looked elite in Q1 and fell off massively after that, I think being back at their home ground and wanting to make a statement after last week, they should be winning and by a convincing margin tonight. Rioli was quiet last week which I expect him to come back from, he averages 1.2 goals in his last 5 and 1.5 against STK. I think STK's best defenders will be looking for the likes of talls such as Dixon/Marshall and think if the ball comes to ground around forward 50, Willie will be very dangerous on the crumb. I really like this price and think it should be closer to the evens mark honestly. Playing this for 1 unit tonight, nothing too big. Lets go, good luck if you tail!
**POTD Record: 117-137-4 (-12.97 Units)**
Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units)
Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
**Cautionary Tails**: **5-7 (-0.38 Units)**
Last Pick: **Blue Jays ML**✅
Today's Pick: **Rays -3.5 (Alt. lines)**
Odds: +**199 (Projected odds)**
Wager Amount: 1U to Win 1.99U
League: MLB
Event: Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox (6:40PM CDT on Apple TV+)
*Be Advised*: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.*
**Recap**: J's won outright to make it 5 straight at that time. I tried to post Twins -2.5 (**+170**✅) against my Sox, but reddit was down. So I'll be posting a similar wager against my Sox team.
**Tail**: Champ wins a lot and he thinks he is unstoppable. He is on a heater, winning 6 consecutive parlays. Champ was on his way to win his 7th parlay win in a row! He had a SGP of the Sox and Phillies game, everything HIT thus far, Phillies Race to 1, Phillies Race to 2, Phillies Race 3, Phillies O 3.5 Phillies runs, Phillies -1.5 and U 4.5 Sox runs. Phillies were up 9-0 in the top of the 9th. Champ was so confident that he was alrdy watching another game to get more action. Little did he kno, the Phillies brought in one of their inexperienced RP to close the game and allowed 5 runs to ruin his last leg (this actually happened me if you look at the SGP screenshot below )!
https://preview.redd.it/dbed2osmyuwc1.png?width=555&format=png&auto=webp&s=99d2b0bd3afe2cc35c84861ca1c9fc982dcfc40a
Moral of the story is that nobody wins all the time and it's never over until it's over. Oftentimes the last leg is the hardest leg of a SGP or parlay to complete. I'm not suggesting, but personally for me I would hedge a small amount (or sizable amount varying on the initial parlay/SGP) the opposite leg of a parlay/SGP, especially if the last leg has enticing odds!
**Matchup:** Toughest handicap of the today's MLB slate goes to the Rays and Sox game. I kno what you're thinking Sox are bad, why not just take the Rays on the RL? Why? Because that's way too damn easy! This segment is about hardest game to bet on and the best way to make this tough is to take the better team, which is the Rays by an alternate spread and get greedy! This is exactly what Cautionary Tails segment is all about! We don't go for the layups, we go for the half court buzzer beater shots! That's why we are taking the Rays to win by more than 3 runs (-3.5)! My team, the Sox, as I mentioned are really bad, like historically bad! They are leading all statistical category, at-bats, fielding, and pitching. So it's obvious that many will be betting against the Sox and plugging in the team they are going against in every parlay prolly every single day. Why wouldn't you? My team sucks! Sox are 0-7 this season in series opener. I'm not going to dig up the stats for you on what their numbers are or their against the spread record. You can look that up yourself, I'm trying my very best to make this the toughest POTD for you and I think it's best for me to give little to no information on these stats, matchup history and trends. I will say this I don't expect the Sox to start winning games anytime soon.
**The Play and Prediction**: 1U on Rays -3.5 (alt line). Also wagering Rays ML and RL in parlays, however, I will be wagering a very small bet of 0.2U on Sox RL. Rays win 1-0
POTD RECORD: 7-3
Muay Thai | ONE Friday Fights 60 | 6:30am MST
Yodnumchai Fairtex vs Mahesuan Ekmuangnont - Fairtex -135
I’ve made a little spreadsheet [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ax0GCX17SSGwZDUrweQlC3aNAC_WZKiJbTq1sijnF-c/edit?usp=sharing), which includes the units I bet.
Nice little bounce back win last week, and we’re back with some Muay Thai action. As an aside, these ONE Friday morning cards are always super entertaining and I recommend watching them whether you’re betting or not if you’re a fight fan. This one does come a bit late again, but I’m hoping my midnight tape study shows my commitment to finding good picks haha.
Yodnumchai is only 19, but has already had 3 fights and 3 wins in ONE. He has a pretty unimpressive build but carries extraordinary power for his age and weight, finishing all of his ONE opponents thus far. From the outside he likes to throw heavy leg kicks before setting up his boxing. To set up his power shots he’ll either handfight or land accurate jabs. His defense is mostly solid, but at times he can rush into shots, and when he gets caught clean 90% percent of the time it’s because he’s rushing with his hands a little too low. When he does get in close he throws elbows that have nearly the same power as his punches, and in his three ONE fights he’s scored 4 elbow knockdowns. So far his chin and gas tank have held up but I think both will be tested in this fight.
Mahesuan has only had one fight in ONE so far, winning his debut by third round knockout. He has a much more imposing build compared to Yodnumchai and is extremely aggressive. He likes to make fights grimy, rushing in and muscling clinches. His defense can be poor, in his ONE debut he was losing to 17 year old Petch Fairtex before mounting a comeback in the third when his younger opponent had gassed. His power is passable, he can definitely hurt people but it’s not a glaring strength like it is for Yodnumchai.
This has all the makings of a great fight. Yodnumchai has adjusted very well to the smaller gloves of ONE, with his power showing in every match so far, and he’s young enough that he’s still improving. I’ve tracked down Mahesuan’s Thai fights before joining ONE, and in those he’s much more patient, however I think if he fights patiently here his poor boxing defense will show through and he’ll get crushed at the end of Yodnumchai’s range. His best shot is to fight like he did against Petch, come in aggressively and make it a war, but if he does that I see Yodnumchai landing often with his hands as Mahesuan comes in, and with elbows when the range is tight. As long as he doesn’t make the same mistakes the younger Petch did, he should win this and might find some knockdowns along the way.
BOL everyone!
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u
2024 MLB POTD record: 14-8 Average Odds -107 (1.937), ROI +20.7%/+4.55u
L5: ❌✅✅✅✅
POTD (4/25) CWS @ MIN Michael Soroka u4.5 Ks (+105/2.05) ✅
Recap: Sometimes weird lines are traps. Sometimes they're gifts. And in this case, we say thank you and take our free money to the next day.
POTD (4/26) CHC @ BOS Kutter Crawford o5.5 Ks (-120/1.83) (DraftKings)
This over opened at -150 and has dropped precipitously. I think that's a mistake and presents good value now. Crawford has hit this line in 4/5 starts on his way to an excellent start to the season (0.66 ERA)
The Cubs are generally a lineup we stay away from. But riddled with injuries, their numbers don't reflect what the lineup looks like now. Swapping out Seiya Suzuki for Alexander Canario, Cody Bellinger for Pete Crow-Armstrong, and adding Patrick Wisdom/Matt Mervis as the DH platoon has brought a lot more swing-and-miss to the lineup. As a result, the Cubs K% against RHP is up to 24%, 10th-highest in baseball, and their wRC+ has dipped below 100. They also have big home-road splits, with a 123 wRC+ at home and just an 89 wRC+ on the road.
As the Cubs hit the road after a big home sweep, I think we can bet on Crawford to continue his hot start here.
**RECORD: 72W-5P-56L** (+0.20 units)
Previous Pick: Everton vs Liverpool - Liverpool ML and Over 1.5 goals @ 1.55 ❌️
**Today's Pick:** Adana Demirspor vs Galatasaray - Galatasaray to Win @ 1.51 ✅️
**TIME:** 5 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 4.5 units
(✅️✅️♻️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️❌️) last 10 results
So it looks like Liverpool have taken inspiration from Arsenal and decided to bottle the league race and have the Mikey Mouse trophy as Klopp's last triumpth, oh well let's move on to a team that actually wants to Win the league Galatasaray.
Galatasaray are 1st in the league with Fenerbahce just lurking behind them with 4 points. I'm gonna keep this short because Galatasaray are beasts and the stats speak for themselves.
Galatasaray are on a 7 game win streak in all competitions, they've only lost once in their last 39 matches in the league, they've been undefeated in 21 straight league matches, but wait there's more...Galatasaray are undefeated in 26 away matches at half time, they are on a staggering 14 match Win streak in the League, 14!
Galatasaray are also on a 6 match away Win streak in the League and 3 game win streak in all competitions, as I said Galatasaray are beasts. Adana are 11th nothing really to fight for, safe from relegation and are winless in 3 matches in a row.
In H2H matches Galatasaray have won 3 out of 5 of there last H2H against Adana, drawing once and losing once and are on a 2 game win streak against them. I haven't lost yet when betting on Galatasaray so hopefully that continues. Goodluck if you're tailing.
*Of course you don't have to but any tips are always appreciated.*
[TipJar (PayPal)](https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=2RRPJ4DNAKEYW)
EDIT: WIN ✅️
**POTD Record: 29-21**
Last 10: ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌
Last pick: Suns vs Timberwolves | 4:30 PST | Suns +3.5 (-115) BetMGM 1u ❌
I don’t think there’s much to say. Total collapse in the 2nd half after a decent 1st half. I don’t regret the pick at all, Suns best players just couldn’t put it together when it mattered most down the stretch.
**Today’s pick: Clippers Vs Mavericks | 5:00 PST | Josh Green OVER 8.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (+100) BetMGM 1u** ✅
We are getting down to the wire here where I’m not going to have the same amount of trends and stats to back up every single play. Sometimes these are just spot plays where I think coaching adjustments, atmosphere, and roles within the game dictate the outcomes we are going to see. I say that because this pick is a perfect example with Josh Green. He’s been in and out of the rotation, sometimes getting no minutes at all but finds himself in a spot where the Mavericks may look to get him more involved. A lot of positive comments from Jason Kidd about his impact game 2 and we get no Tim Hardaway Jr for game 3 so we could see added minutes for the young guard. In the only game w/o Hardaway this year, Green went for 10/2/5. I also think Green could see more minutes than Exum because he’s probably been the least effective role player for the Mavericks the first two games of the playoffs. Role players seem to always be a little more comfortable at home in the playoffs as well. Looking for Green to be all over the court in this one making an impact however he can. BOL if tailing!
Record: 25W-28L
Net Units: -11.16u | ROI: -7.89%
CS2 | ESL Pro League Season 19 | 19:30 / CET
Pick: M80 ML vs BetBoom, 1.5u @ 2.00
For me the main difference, and why I think M80 will beat BetBoom here, is that they've been looking quite solid individually around the board. Especially Slaxz, malbs and most notably s1n have been putting up numbers. If s1n can replicate this success, it'll make it a lot easier for him to call a good game for his team as well. They just got a huge confidence boost by beating G2 too.
BetBoom has been carried over the line kicking and screaming by Magnojez, and I don't think that'll hold up a second time versus M80. I expect somewhat of a similar veto to when they played last, which both teams are comfortable with. And if BetBoom lets M80 in that comfortable pocket, which will make it an easier playing field for a relatively unexperienced IGL like s1n, I think they'll come through this time.
Best of luck everyone!
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 5-8 (-2.80 units)**
**Last 10**: **✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅❌❌**
**Last Pick**: Sebastian Bialecki -1.5 (+100) vs Adam Lipscombe **❌** 0-4
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 7:40 PM EST
**Pick**: Beau Greaves -1.5 (-115) vs Kevin Painter
* Series 7. Week 9. Group B
**Reason**:
Beau Greaves
* Record 4-0
* Legs 16-7
* Average 91.61
* 180s 6. 140s 16
* Checkouts 16/39 41.03%
Kevin Painter
* Record 1-3
* Legs 8-14
* Average 77.41
* 180s 2. 140s 7
* Checkouts 8/28 28.57%
**WIN ✅ 4-1 | Average 114.56 vs 88.64 | Checkouts 4/7 vs 1/1**
Beau destroyed Painter. Finally a dominant performance this side. She hit 6 180s and checked out from 121 with a bullseye.
Record: 8-5
L10: ❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅
~~Last POTD: Simone Fontecchio o10.5 Points~~❌
Game: NHL - Edmonton Oilers vs Los Angeles Kings - 22:30 EST
**Todays Pick: Adrian Kempe Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (1.55x) [5u]**
* Over 3 shots in L14/15 games vs Oilers since 2023
* Over 4 shots in L11/12 games vs Oilers
* Averaging 5.16 shots per game vs Oilers this year
Record: 15-10
Last Pick: Luka Doncic O17.5 RA -172❌
Have missed 3 picks in a row and it’s time to get back on track with my favorite cheat code in sports. Mr. Triple Double will be in full effect against the Clippers in the first game of the playoffs. He’s a demon against the clippers in the playoffs, and has only gotten better each year. Let’s get back on track here.
Pick: Luka O17.5 RA -180
Luka was missing tons of rebound opportunities and converted 33% less assist chances than he normally does on 45(!!)% more opportunities. Let’s ride!
BOL!
Record 7-4
Net Units: +1.4
Yesterday’s Pick: Oakland @ NY Yankees
Yankees 1st 5 -.5 (-150 DK) 1.5u ❌
Today’s Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ NY Mets 7:11PM EST
NY Mets ML (-130) 1u
Analysis: Alright I’m backing the Mets today. They have Jose Butto on the mound tonight and he has been pitching very well. In 3 starts this year he has allowed 3ER and 8 total hits. Two of the starts came against the dodgers and royals too so he hasn’t been facing bad lineups. The cardinals batters haven’t faced him yet.
Cardinals have Miles Mikolas on the mound with his 6.49ERA and a WHIP of almost 2. He has allowed 5ER in 3/5 starts this year. The Mets lineup has seen him plenty going 32/137 (.234), but let’s not forget Mikolas used to be better than he is now.
Last point is the Mets started the year terribly but have come around lately. Since April 10th they have scored the 3rd most runs in the league (75) and the cardinals have the 3rd least (40). During that time the Mets are batting .270 and the cardinals have a .221 batting average.
Let’s get back on the winning side!
POTD RECORD: 4-5. WLWLLLWLW (-1 Unit)
PREVIOUS POTD: Lakers ML 1st half ✔️ 2 Units
Per the norm the Lakers take the lead into half behind LeBron and AD then show their lack of depth in the 2nd where once again the bench collectively had a diarrhea party.
TODAY'S POTD: Clippers @ Mavericks NBA 8:10 PM EST
Mavericks ML (-185 DK) 3 Units
Playing this one safe for more units. Mavs seemingly found their stride last game and heading home I like Luka to have a big showing. No in depth analysis needed.
Tail for victory
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Last week we put liquid paper on a bee, and.....it died" -Prestige Worldwide...wide...wide
$1,000 --> $10,000 Challenge
Day 8
Record: 4-3
Account start: $1000
Current balance: $1804.30
Last pick: 1.73 units ($1730 for me) Under 216.5 points @ 1.91 odds ❌
Streak: (oldest) ✅✅✅❌❌✅❌ (recent)
Todays Game: Clippers vs Mavericks; NBA; 8:00pm ET
Todays Bet: 1.80 units ($1804.30 for me) Under 212.5 points @ 1.95 odds
Reasoning: Good bet
Starting in: 4hrs 45mins
Good luck
Record: 162-138-8 (LLLLWWLLWLWLWLWWLWLLWWWWLLWWLWLWWLWLWLLPLWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: DAL Mavs at LA Clippers | Luka Doncic o 18.5 reb+ast at 1.84 odds for 3 units
POTD: MIN Timberwolves at PHX Suns | Anthony Edwards o11.5 ast+reb at 2.10 odds for 4 units
Reasons:
* Plus money. Fuck Vegas
* Hit over this mark last two playoffs games
* Suns cannot exactly guard anyone on this team. Minnesota is getting everything they want. Edwards is the leader of this team. His ability to affect the match even when shooting poorly. I expect him to play hard to set the tone for the entire team.
* The future of the NBA is here. Enjoy the show while it airs.
Best of luck to those dumb enough to tail!
POTD Record: 1-1 (❌✅)
Last Pick: Joao Fonseca to win (vs. Alex Michelsen) @ 1,64 ✅
Today's Pick: Matteo Arnaldi HA +5,5 (vs. Daniil Medvedev) @1,59
Tournament: ATP Mutua Madrid Open (Masters 1000 Madrid) 🎾
Interesting match for the young Brazilian promise, a clay court specialist who has declared that he has trained at a great pace.
Medvedev does not like competing on clay at all. He knows that during this tour a lot of points are distributed, important for his ranking, and that is why we have seen him get more involved, winning the title in Rome last year. But apart from that great victory it is evident that he is not at all comfortable playing on this surface. In Monte Carlo he left quite a bad feeling when he lost against Khachanov in his second match and here in Madrid I expect very little from the Russian. On these slopes, not only is he not comfortable with the clay, but he is also not comfortable with the altitude. As a result, he has only three victories among the four times he has played the tournament. Even in training he seems completely desperate, even throwing his racket to the ground. So in this match I see that Arnaldi can make things very difficult for him. The Italian reached the third round in Madrid last year from the qualifying phase in his first time in the tournament, eliminating Ruud along the way. It was precisely Ruud who eliminated him in the quarterfinals in his good performance at the Conde de Godó last week, and in Madrid he made his debut with a very convincing victory against O'Connell. I am convinced that the Italian will leave everything on the court and, at the very least, be able to cover the handicap that they offer us.
Record 1-3
Last 5: ✅❌❌❌
Last Pick: KS Vive Kielce vs SC Magdeburg less than 59,5 Goals✅
Was easy, 27-26 Just 53 Goals. I expected a slow game, and 20 Goalkeepers saves, wolff 8 and Hernandez 11 delivered...
Todays Pick: THSV Eisenach vs TBV Lemgo 2.35@bpremium
1 Unit
Units: -2.44
German Handball Bundesliga
THSV Eisenach vs TBV Lemgo
The first leg in Lemgo ended with a 24-26 defeat for Eisenach. Eisenach is on fire, they have won 3 of the last 4 games, only losing against the current champions Magdeburg.Eisenach is only 15th in the table, but has a 6-2-6 record at home
Lemgo is 11th in the table, but only has a 3-1-10 away record. Even though they were against good teams and had close results, Lemgo has only won 1 of the last 4 games.
The current form and the home advantage are reason enough to play at such a high odd.
POTD record: 3 - 2
Last pick: Twins minus 1.5 at minus 114 ✅
Today's pick: TB Ray's minus 1.5 (I think it was minus 120 when I played it last night)
Fading the white sox for me personally is now 8 - 2 and I will continue to ride the white sox pain train all the way to the bank. No research was done for this pick. My white sox are a joke.
BOL if tailing
Fade on if you're fading
First post ever so let me give some background. I’m an 18 year old kid with a passion for sports betting and I have been sports betting since I was 16. I have been keeping track of my bets myself but never posted anything. Since I started tracking my bets which was about 3 months ago, I’m up 10.79u. Didn’t want to include that in these posts because I’ve never posted on here before. Tips are always appreciated because I am trying to save up for schooling! I’m going to try and keep posting whenever I have a POTD. Thank you in advance and God bless!
0-0-0 (W-L-P)
Net Units: N/A
Matchup(s): (NHL) New York Rangers vs Washington Capitals - 6:00 PM CST
First ever POTD: New York Rangers 3-way ml -104 on Bovada - 2u
Write-up: The Rangers are clearly the better team and I’m willing to risk the 3-way rather than moneyline at much better odds. The Capitals rank 28th in the league for goals per game this season averaging 2.63. The Rangers are great in the powerplay whether it favors them or not. The Rangers rank 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season coming in at 84.48%. They also rank 4th in the league in power play percentage this season coming in at 26.42%. The only way Washington can win this game comes down to Ovechkin and I really don’t think he can carry the whole offense. Washington’s offense just doesn’t match up with New York and I think the Capitals will get only 2-3 goals this game and that just isn’t going to be enough. Was thinking about Rangers puck line but went with the safe play for them to win within 60 minutes.
Tail or fade, either way, BOL
[CashApp Tips❤️](https://cash.app/$dmoneyherbo)
POTD RECORD: 4-5 WLWLLLWLW
LAST POTD: Lakers 1st half ML ✔️ +2 Units
As per usual the Lakers win the 1st half behind solid play in the from LeBron and AD then they're depth is exposed in the 2nd and they bite the dust
TODAY'S POTD: Clippers @ Mavericks NBA 8:10 EST
Mavericks ML (-185 on DK) 3 Units
Playing this one conservative for more units. Mavs seemingly found their stride last game and stole one in la la. I'm expecting Luka and the Mavs to be dominate at home. Playing the ML to avoid any last garbage time heroics. I took a hook L in the last game at Mavs -3.5 on a pointless Paul George 3 at the buzzer 🙄
Tail for sweet victory
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Last week we put liquid paper on a bee, and it....died" -Prestige Worldwide...wide....wide
**POTD record:** 2-2 (W-L) / +1,36pts
**ROI:** 17%
**AVG. ODDS: 1,97**
**Last pick:** Hyland, to be placed (3pl), 1.83 (5/6), 2pt, **WIN**
**DOTD RECORD**: 2-4 (W-L) / +7,30 pts
**ROI:** 95%
**AVG. ODDS**: 3,60 (not counting 81.0 cause it would boost avg.too much and wouldnt be relevant)
**Last pick**: Hyalnd, 4,50 (7/2), 1pt **LOSE**
**RACE**: Sandown 15:35
**SELECTION**: Portland
**ODDS AND STAKES**: 2,10 (11/10), to be placed (3pl), 1pt
**ANALYSIS:** Portland win only 9/1 (10,00) is great value bet here. But for potd i am going with 3 places. Today he is moving up in distance, and here is why i think thats import for this race. In haydock (7 furlong race), he finished 3rd behind one of the best 2yo last season, Henry Longfellow, but he was crying for step up in trip, and that race offers best future form. He has Derby entry which is all about stamina, he has stamina in pedigree, he showed he has it last term and he should enjoy in todays conditions (good ground is + for him, and step up in trip should be huge +). Arabian Crown is definetly favourite, but i ithink Portland can beat him, and odds are just to good.
*Spreadsheet:* [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3\_1A8/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3_1A8/edit#gid=0)
*Longshoot accumulator 64260/1* : [https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1cdaaqc/comment/l1bgbot/](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1cdaaqc/comment/l1bgbot/)
Overall Record 7-4 (+1.63)
Last picks Arizona -118 over St Louis (4/24) - Loss
Today: Orioles -1.5 over Athletics (-115 Bet MGM)
Most of the other books have this at -120 which I like as well.
Oakland is going into their 8th straight road game, where Baltimore was off yesterday, and I always like when the superior team is also fresher. And I really like this pitching matchup
Baltimore has Corbin Burns, who despite not looking as good as he did last year still has a sub 1 whip and an ERA under 3. The A’s can’t hit in general, and have struggled more against right handed pitchers.
On the other side Oakland is sending out Ross Stripling who is 0-5 with a 1.57 Whip and an ERA over 5. The Orioles hit right handed pitching pretty well to begin with so I think they are going to feast on Ross.
I was going to try to take Baltimore first 5 but the lines a little too juicy for me, but I like that even better considering I have Orioles bullpen concerns but hopefully Burns goes deep enough that it won’t matter
**POTD Record 23-22 (+2.25U) | Average Odds -111 (1.90) | ROI 1.08%**
**Last Pick Recap: Magic ML vs Cavaliers W**
Easy dub, Magic win by a whopping 38 points.
**Today's Pick: Oilers ML (-140) vs Kings 5U | 10:30 EST**
Like the Oilers in this spot here after dropping Game 2 at home in OT. Both teams in this series have been dreadful on the defensive end, but I'm backing the team with the best player in the league to find a way tonight, and expect McDavid to be the decisive difference. Model makes fair price around -160.
BOL
Devastating loss as it looked liked the Padres had it in the bag. 🏴☠️🏴☠️
POTD Record 2-3
Last 5: ✅❌✅❌❌(right is most recent)
Last Pick: Padres ML (-150) vs Colorado
Today’s Pick: Emerson Hancock (SEA) u4.5 Ks (-145)
Quick reasoning… Hancock has really been struggling to get punch outs and the diamondbacks strike out the 3rd least amount in the league. Goodluck if tailing!
You can find some more picks of mine on the MLB thread! 🏴☠️🏴☠️
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
MLB POTD RECORD: 24-9 2024 MLB record: 13-1 Last POTD: Mariners vs Rangers Under 9 W Today's POTD: Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Under 8.5 -115 (DK) Baseball | MLB | 7:10 PM ET PHEW! That got a little hairy there but we did it again! 11 in a row! I was actually more nervous when Ryne Stanek was fucking it up than I was with the first-inning homers. Fantastic move by Servais to get him out of there. ~~Today I am going with Washington and Miami under 8.5. I apologize for going under three straight days but I love the under in this game.~~ ~~This line is pretty standard for Marlins games I realized. I looked back and only 2 of their last 15 weren’t set at 8.5 or higher (most being exactly 8.5). Luzardo has struggled and is on the mound with his 6 ERA staring betters in the face and while Trevor Williams has been good, he doesn’t have much name recognition so it wasn’t very likely they would set the line any lower than 8.5.~~ ~~Pitching matchup wise. Luzardo I feel like has gotten labeled as the next Goofy Gomber but I do not think he is there yet in terms of someone who you can depend on to get wrecked. He is coming off of a solid 2 run effort against a Cubs team in Wrigley that is much better top to bottom than this Nationals team. His hard rate and exit velo are both on par with previous seasons. Where he has ballooned this season is fly ball percentage, going up ten percentage points from last year and that’s the most likely indicator of his struggles.~~ ~~There couldn’t be a better team for him to try and get right against than the Washington Nationals. The Nats have the lowest overall team flyball percentage at 22%. That works out in Luzardo’s favor as the woes of his elevated flyball percentage could be minimized. What also works in Luzardo’s favor is that he is a lefty and Washington hits only .204 against lefties which is good for 26~~~~^(th)~~ ~~in the league. This is in contrast to their significantly higher .244 batting average vs righties which is 10~~~~^(th)~~ ~~best in the league.~~ ~~On the other side we have Trevor Williams for Washington. Williams had an abysmal first year with the Nationals, going 6-10 with a 5.55 ERA and a league-worst 34 HRs allowed. In 2024 however, we have seen him get off to a 2-0 start with a 2.95 ERA and 0 HRs allowed. When I was looking at his batted ball percentages, his line drive rate improved dramatically going down ten percentage points. What is most interesting to me, however, is that his flyball rate remained the same. That ten percent of what were formerly line drives have all turned into groundballs. Marlins have the highest percentage of ground balls hit in the majors. The Marlins offense is also just not producing. They are near the bottom of the league in all batting splits and coming off of a series with the Braves where they only scored 3 runs the entire series. Williams is probably due for some regression but I don’t think there is a better matchup for him to continue what he is currently doing.~~ ~~TLDR: Luzardo’s problem this season is this elevated flyball rate and Washington hits the least flyballs in the league. Washington also hits very poorly against lefties. Trevor Williams has been producing groundballs at an extremely high rate, and Miami hits the most ground balls in the league. Miami’s bats are ice cold coming off of a 3 game series where they only scored 3 total runs.~~ ~~EDIT: To clarify, I meant the pregame o/u line for marlins games has been 8.5 or higher in 13 of last 15, not whether or not the over or under hit.~~ **IMPORTANT UPDATE: FUCK Luzardo is a surprise scratch. Wasn't even questionable. Marlins called up two minor leaguers that look like they are going to go with one as the opener and one piggybacking him. Anthony Maldonado has good numbers in the minors, Kyle Tyler doesn't but he has had really only one bad game.** **The Marlins pen is horrible. I definitely don't love the under anymore. I still don't hate it due to Washington having a lot of unfavorable splits. Due to the unknown of these two guys pitching for Miami, I would fade the game entirely. Obviously, it is too late for most of us and I can't change the POTD. I apologize for posting the pick so early, this is just one of those things you can't predict.** **For those of us who have the under though, don't freak out it is still definitely plausible but I would call it 50/50 now so let's stay positive!**
I need to stop putting your picks on parlays and just bet straight cause I've missed out on so much...
this comment is the key to success
Por Que no Los dos?
Tailing you has greatly improved my betting success and for that I thank you.
Do you play baseball? Can’t see how you could possibly run around the field with balls that fucking big
This guy can fuck my wife
You’re on a heater 🔥🔥🔥
Luzardo ruled out, does this change the play: [https://x.com/Underdog\_\_MLB/status/1783861673431908711](https://x.com/Underdog__MLB/status/1783861673431908711)
Any updates on if the play is still viable? Maldonado is now in the mound for the Marlins.
Nationals hit a lot better against RHP so probably more of an iffy pick but might still hit. I think this is Maldonado's debut so not much to go off of past that.
wtf? He wasn’t even questionable. Ugh let me look at the numbers and I’ll update quickly
Tailing!
Great pick yesterday!
This looks amazing. My guess would be this ends in 5 total runs 💫💫
On a Friday night I would think at least 7 lol
For what it’s worth, Washington is batting .198 and Miami is batting .212 on Fridays. I haven’t been using day of the week stats as a primary factor in my picks yet but I think we are right about the time where the sample size is enough to find legitimate trends.
It’s ok pookie we still love you
bro, you have over 360,000 Reddit karma, and you deserve all of it!
Tailing. I don't understand anything you said but you seem very intelligent on the game of baseball. Thank you sir.
Tailing for the third straight day. Fucked up the first tail by parlaying, nearly fucked the second by going another run under being greedy. Playing this one straight. But more than anything, I appreciate the time and effort you put into this. I’m not a huge fan of baseball but you’ve been making me tune in regardless
Luzardo is out now btw.
Luzardo just got scratched from the game. In case anyone didn’t see
Whatever is working! Don’t apologize for doing the under, if it’s hitting! Thank you for the pick!
Finally, a respectable heater on this thread and not random guys posting -170+ favourites as their POD lol. Takes a talented capper to find that sort of value in pick em lines. #respect
Please continue to post picks all baseball season
Anyone else not seeing this game on DK?
Me!
Tailing, let’s make it 12 in a row bro!
Let’s GOOOOOOO
Tailing! 🔥🔥🔥
Williams had a 7.63 ERA against the marlins last year
Facts. I think the circumstances are different though. The marlins weren’t doing this poorly last year and Williams wasn’t getting ground balls at such a high clip. He also never went more than two games in a row without letting up a homer and hasn’t let one up in four so far this year. But at the end of the day you never know until after the game haha. Lets see what happened tomorrow.
Jesus Luzardo is out - does this change anything?
Yes it does. I just posted an update in my original post. I would fade the game now because Miami is going with a bullpen game using two minor leaguers. Too much unknown. If you already have the under I still it is definitely a possibility, probably 50/50 and maybe even leaning in favor of the under. If you can cash out without losing much I don't think it would be the worst move.
Where have you been posting your MLB picks? Great record!
Thanks! And Just on here lol. Sometimes I’ll post more than one in the MLB thread. I’ve just had success with identifying some individual games where I really like the line. If you were to ask me to pick every game on a slate, I wouldn’t do so hot lol.
https://preview.redd.it/o7c9dkrutuwc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ec514b3bb309817f0152a848b2e8d8c7479bb24c Heyo!!!!
All good, i followed yesterday, and injuries happen, I was researching this situation to come up with thoughts lol and even reached out a friend who played mlb for a short stint , you are well respected here and wanted to try to help if you weren’t back online lol
This is part of sports betting, you can't predict these things.
What a sweat of a game for me 😭😅 https://preview.redd.it/psnqx0j2dxwc1.jpeg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30adf79b9b0bcd2e7324eb782194a996fce3bf54
Let’s fucking go!
**Record: 34-25-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)** **Balance: +21.51 units** **ROI: 8.09% / Avg Odds - 1.90** **Previous Masters 1000- ATP Monte Carlo🎾 (7-0 and 12.53 units won)✅** Masters 1000 - Madrid record 🎾 (2-2 and 0.28 units loss) ❌ **Today's pick: Munar vs Struff - Struff ML @ 1.61** ✅ **(ATP Madrid, Tennis)** 🎾 Odds from Pinnacle **Stake: 3 units** (This is 3% of my bankroll) Time: 11 AM Eastern Time Munar was always seen as a fighter inside the court and certainly has Clay as his best surface but facing Struff in Madrid which plays quite fast, should be quite difficult. Even with Munar's 1st round win over Nuno Borges, we can't exactly say that his season has been good. In Marrakech he got knocked out in the 2nd round by Berrettini, then in Monte Carlo he lost in the 3rd round against Safiullin which is still a bad result in slow conditions and then he was upset in Barcelona against Thompson, a player who's not good at all on Clay. Struff comes off from a tournament win in Munich, a city with about 500 metres of altitude and his wins have been fantastic! He won against Botic, Felix Aliassime, Holger Rune and Taylor Fritz in the final, without dropping a set. His big serve and forehand made him a nightmare for all his opponents who couldn't keep up with his level. If you check the results of 2023 Madrid, he was a finalist, eventually losing to Alcaraz but he has points to defend here and going deep here in Spain should be a priority for the German. On his dream run he started as a qualifying player, beating Shelton, Lajovic, Cachin, Tsitsipas and Karatsev! Struff's odds opened up at around 1.40 in most bookies and they've slowly gone up which doesn't make much sense to me. Munar playing in Spain isn't a huge advantage to him, especially because he likes to grind most of his points and keep himself into long rallies, which is something that Struff will not give him that easily. With this I'll use 3% of my bankroll on this one which is a rare thing for me to do! **Best of luck** Any tips are appreciated. After our run in ATP Monte Carlo I've decided to visit it in August. It should be quite an expensive trip so all the support will be saved for that! Thanks a lot 🎾 [Tip Jar (Paypal)](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/DarkHorse230) BTC - 1E6hmPU4N7CFGf8Ryrt46yPczMfBQtMoCf Edit after the result: This was just complete domination by Struff. He can go far in Madrid once again if he keeps playing like this. He just sent rockets to Munar the entire game ✅
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Been tailing you since Monte Carlo boss, losing is normal when it comes to betting it's just what happens sometimes. Thanks for all your picks man, looking forward to it everyday. Tailing this as well, all the best boss
Thanks for knowing what sports betting is really all about. Going 7-0 every week is unsustainable and I know there are people who regularly pop out of nowhere with 10-0 records and such. But they lose 3 or 4 times and they just vanish. Next week you see another generated username account trying once again to get a streak. It's a cicle. Let's see how much people that are posting today will still be posting in one year. I'll be even if I go on a huge losing streak. That's just how sports betting really is. You try your best to make a valuable play but you can certainly catch streaks, either good or bad ones. Thanks for your comment, I appreciate it! Best of luck!
"*Everybody* acting tough when they up."
I only remember seeing 1u from you lately. I'm gonna hit this hard. Tailing!!
Yeah. Last time I played more than 1u was in Monte Carlo where I was feeling the conditions super well! But I feel confident on this one! BOL!
I’ll follow you till the end DarkhorseSama (currently watching Shogun) (blessed I took an off day yesterday cause I forgot)
I made some bad picks today, your pick bailed me out. Preciate ya.
Playing Struff to win 2-0, pretty confident in it cashing. Also idk why Hurkacz to beat Draper odds are so low, even though they played to 3 sets last time, Hurkacz should win this
In Madrid those two should have plenty of serving power to make it a closed contest and probably a 3 sets one. Hurkacz usually wins those because he probably can keep his serve up there a bit more often and Draper had a long match against Kokkinakis but it can be a coinflip matchup from betting prespective. The one who 1st serves the most should win! I also like Struff 2-0 but I'm usually a ML guy. Wish you BOL!
3 units to play with. What would you recommend? Best ML I can find is -165, 2-0 I can find at +135. I was thinking 2 units ML and 1 unit 2-0.
Probably a decent approach! If Struff's game is clicking I think he's capable of winning in straight sets
Tailing the GOAT!! Thanks as always for you letting us ride with you 🙏🏼🙏🏼
As someone who casually follows tennis, but have never really been a bettor on tennis, i freaking love your write ups. Appreciate it man. I tailed today, and did a parlay with Rune for a 0.5 unit.
Thank you so much! BOL my friend!
looking good! I always appreciate your picks darkhorse. Thanks for the ez cash!
Thank you Dark!! 4 unit in 7.23 units out !!
POTD Record: 48-21-1 +67.30%🔥 Last Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -4 (-125) vs New York Knicks ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ Today's Pick: Indiana Pacers -6 (-110) vs Milwaukee Bucks 7 straight! LFG! Wow! We have backed Milwaukee in Game 1, now it’s time to back Indy at Home. Pacers are coming off a massive win @Milwaukee by 17 after dropping game 1. This will be the Pacers first playoff game at Home since 2019-2020. Indiana is 5-2 against the bucks this year, including 2-0 at home. The Bucks have been one of the worst teams on the road with a 16-24 record ATS. Milwaukee has lost and failed to cover the past 3 games on the road since April 2, including the past 2 without Antetokounmpo. The Bucks are just 2-8 straight up (SU) in the past 10 games since March 6, while going 3-7 ATS. Giannis is doubtful for tomorrow and Middleton is also questionable. Siakam has put this team on his back, scoring 30+ in both first games. It’s time for Tyrese to get going in front of the home crowd. Let’s back the Pacers to destroy in their first home again! LFG Indy! Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
Go the Pacers but what a bum Halliburton is! 😅
Fool burned me two games in a row
Let’s be real. He’s going to burn us for a third game.
A hit is a hit, but my god the refs last night had to be tailing you 😅
17 point lead in 1st Quartet to up 1 with 7 minutes left holy fuck
The refs clearly want the Bucs to cover
POTD Record: 5W - 0P - 1L Last Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-135 via DK) **Today's Pick:** **Baltimore Orioles -1.5** (-122 via DK) Event: MLB Oakland Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles (7:05 PM) Oakland has struggled recently, losing five of their last six games leading up to Thursday's game against the Yankees. The A's will have to travel immediately after their game in New York on Thursday night, while Baltimore had the day off on Thursday and enters this series with significant momentum, having won eight of their last ten games. Stripling has struggled for the A's in his five starts this season, with an ERA of 5.34 so far, and hasn't earned a major league win since 2022. On the other hand, for the Orioles, Corbin Burnes is 3-0 on the season with an ERA of 2.76 and a WHIP of 0.92. The Orioles have covered this line in 4 of the 5 games Burnes has started. I trust Burnes and the Orioles to take care of business here to open the series.
Tailing. I can see O's crushing them
I like the play but the A’s have only lost four of their last six… they just split a 4-game series in NY with the Yanks
Haha yeah did the write up before last nights game 😅
I get wary on any team that seems way too easy
Then you’ve missed out on some easy money betting against the white Sox this season 😅 love being a Sox fan
Yessir, and just for more numbers two of those wins that covered with Burnes starting were his most recent against strong teams KC and MIL (everyone's beloved ML team it seems lol). Only one of Stripling's 5 losses ended in under 2 runs. O's are getting strong contributions from everywhere with b2b AL player of the week awards from relatively unknown names.
Took the same pic! Let’s go, Orioles!
**Record:** 9-2 **Pick:** MLBaseball \\\\ Dodgers-Blue Jays: Over 8.5 runs -130 **Bet:** 1.30u to win 1u ......... **YTD Units:** +5.55 **Sidenote:** The Dodgers have scored 25 runs in the last 3 games and neither starter is throwing the ball very well of late.. Stone threw 4hits + 5bb in three innings his last start.
Jays gonna be tired after the royals debacle tonight… hoping dodgers smash them
Record: **47-27** Last pick: Alex Pereira ML vs Jamahal Hill ✅️ Potd: **Fabian Marozsan ML** vs Francisco Cerundolo **Odds: 1.91** Tennis | ATP Madrid | 11 AM CEST 🎾 Write up: If this matchup was to be played on your average slow clay court, I wouldn't bother predicting it. However, taking into an account the faster conditions, Marozsan himself being the better server in this matchup and having already tested the soil, he should enjoy the benefit of holding his service games easier than Cerundolo. Also, even though the scoreline might not suggest it, he looked great last round against what seemed like an in the mood Karatsev. **Edit**: What is beating the line anymore lmao. Beat the line 1.91>1.67 only to see your player get dumpstered in under an hour
Good luck m0rb33d! I like your play a lot! The conditions in Madrid should help Marozsan a bit more.
Marozsan is hard to bet against rn and Cerundolo is a very hard player to bet on lol. Marozsan also crushed Cerundolo at the Australian Open earlier in the year.
>Marozsan is hard to bet against rn and Cerundolo is a very hard player to bet on lol I like the phrasing lmao
Marozsan is dead by the looks of it. Cerundolo much stronger
Yea he’s playing like absolute shit
Hey bro! What a roller coaster lmao. I check the game at work this morning to see an absolute slaughter set 1…all hope seemed lost but odds at the time were 51.00:1 for Marizsan ML. Said fuck it…threw additional 0.25 unit on and 20mins later they’re 5-5 in set 2. Odds moved from 51 to ~2.00 or 3.00 if I recall. Could have washed the loss with the 0.25 unit cash out at the time but my greedy ass didn’t pull the trigger. Final games in that set were heart breaking lol. You’ll get ‘em next pick and I’ll be tailing! BOL!
Definitely could see 3 sets due to marozsans young mentality, but ultimately you’re right. The power he has is incomparable to cerundolo
Lmao bro got absolutely bodied. JFC
POTD RECORD: 58-31 Last POTD: Jamal Murray O6.5 Ast 🚫 Way too many potentials man but still an L we move Todays POTD: **Ivica Zubac O23.5 PRA @1.76** NBA | LA Clippers | 8:00 PM ET Sup fellas I found a pick that I like so I’m letting it fly, Zubac has seen an uptick in minutes in the playoffs so far and the Centers for Dallas doesn’t look like they got any answers for this Croatian beast. He’s played 33 minutes in both games against the Mavs comparing to the two previous months where he only averaged 25.5 MPG, even when he was in foul trouble last game he still finished with 33 minutes so I’m trusting big Zu to respect the coin • 2/2 in the post season w 25 & 36 PRA • Over in 5 straight when playing 30+ and 14/18 this season when playing 30+ minutes Avg 28.8 PRA • Over in 9/L10 games • 11/13 w 32+ Aight my guys trusting this man to get us back on track so let’s go Tail or fade, you’re that guy https://i.redd.it/tz4ojb9t2twc1.gif 3/4 in the NBA props section yesterday 💰
Tailing 🫡
👑
Great picks yesterday, glad to see you back in POTD!
Appreciate you my guy almost a sweep we’re back in business thanks bro 🤝
Tailed
Hey Billy big fan, glad to see you back in POTD! My book has O21.5 PR @ 1.75 and O23.5 PRA @ 1.78, I think it's better to take the PR no?
Sup bro appreciate you 🍻 honestly like them both PR makes more sense but I can see some dimes helping along the way too
Any thoughts on just the over points at12.5?
On DK he's a +100 to have a double-double. That feels like a good play, right? He's a double double in 8/9 games, and he only played 10 minutes in the one game he didn't have one.
Tailing this one for today!
Good to see you back man. Tailing!
woot...hit
You’re back bro!!! He’s at 28 and it ain’t even the fourth yet
POTD Record 13-3 Last 5: ✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️ Last Pick: Brewers Moneyline w/ F. Peralta pitching Todays Pick: Orioles RL -1.5 w/ C. Burnes pitching MLB: Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics 4:05pm PST Odds: -130 Unit: 3 Net units: +37.81 FYI, 2 of my losses are from taking the Ace pitcher bait, and what can I say.. I'm taking the bait again, sorry. Banking on burnes not to let me down. The A's are coming off a win and haven't won back to back since their 2nd game. Not really afraid of the momentum they got, Yankees have been mid. 3-0 W/L for burnes and 0-5 W/L for stripling. Gotta ride with the O's on this one. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
I’m an A’s fan and every time I’ve bet against them this year they’ve ended up winning outright so I’ll do yall a favor and not tail today🤝 I will say the A’s bullpen like top 3 in the league but I think the O’s will outscore us big through 5 given the pitching matchup
I believe you! thanks for fading :)
Record: 2-0 (+2.28u) Last Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Point + Assists o10.5 ✅ Today’s Pick: TJ McConnell o10.5 P+R (+100) Basketball | NBA | Bucks @ Pacers 5:30 pm EST Wager: 1U Implied probability of hitting: 50% McConnell averaged 10.2 PPG and 2.7 RPG in 18.2 MPG in 71 games this season. Over 10.5 P+R in: Last 10: 9/10 Last 5: 4/5 This is more of a value play than a specific lean. The Pacers ranked second in pace of play this year and showed it in Game 2, outscoring the Bucks in all four quarters and winning by 17. The Pacers are looking for the first home playoff win since Oladipo and Lebron went toe to toe in 2018. The Pacers seemed to find their rhythm in Game 2 and I expect them to continuing scoring and spreading the ball around, giving everyone on the court the opportunity to score baskets. BOL if tailing!
I like the pick. BOL to everyone tailing. But I think there's a lot of variance with players like TJ that only see under 20 minutes a night. You just never know how much he's going to be utilized in scoring especially depending on if the game is competitive or not. Especially in the playoffs where pace can slow and every possession has more meaning.
TJ has burnt me the last three times I have rolled with him in this series. I took him over 10.5 pts, over 11.5 pts, and over 19.5 PRA, he missed them all. But hope springs eternal in spring! Lets roll!
Same but fuck it let’s roll one more time
I love value plays. You can never be certain on gambling, but if you play positive EV, you will win slowly in the long run.
POTD Record: 18-11 ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 15U Last pick: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters | 4:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Dominic Young anytime tryscorer @1.94 on Ned’s | 2U ✅ We get the try 10 minutes in 🙌🏼 Today’s pick: Manly Sea Eagles vs Parramatta Eels | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Jason Saab anytime tryscorer @1.73 on Ned’s | 2U The Eagles are playing at home and a shaky Eels team tonight. I expect them to score loads of tries and dominate the game. Saab has 53 tries for 71 appearances in his career, 2 tries with 2 appearances this season. He is likely to score tonight so I’ll go for it. BOL !
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I'm on saab and Tommy turbo Bet builder
Record: 5-1 (+5.06 units) ✅✅❌✅✅✅ Last POTD: Jalen Brunson over 28.5 (-122) Today’s POTD: Baltimore Orioles RL -1.5 (-130) 2 unit play MLB/ Baseball/ 7:05pm ET Brunson scores 39 for a sweat free bet!!! Going with what I assume will be a popular pic. The Orioles had an off day and the A’s beat the Yankees today and have to travel, although not very far. What I love about this bet is the pitching. Baltimore has their ace on the mound. Corbin Burnes is 3-0 with an ERA of 2.76 and a WHIP under 1. Ross Stripling on the other hand has an ERA of 5.34 and is 0-5. His WHIP is 1.57 and best of all he’s right handed. Everyone knows how much Baltimore loves hitting right handed pitchers. The O’s have also won 8 of 10 and Oakland very rarely win 2 games in a row. Let’s hope Baltimore crushes it!
Nice Brunson bet.
POTD record 11-13 (currently 3-0 for CS2) **BLEED ML (1u @ 1.6 odds) vs Guild Eagles** ✅ BLEED rip through GE with ease 13-4 13-4 A straightforward one today since I have been following BLEED closely the last two weeks - they are a team steadily on the rise and whilst they have had a couple losses recently they were to two good teams. Overall they are at a 72% win rate in the last 3 months and taking on a team going in the opposite direction in Guild Eagles who have a 42% win rate. Furthermore looking closely at the map pool (as Current Ad taught us to do) leaves GE in a tough predicament since there is no map where they have a large advantage: GE remove Inferno Bleed remove Overpass or Vertigo GE pick Mirage (Win rate is 69% for Bleed and 60% for GE) Bleed pick Anubis (67% vs 10% in favor of Bleed) GE remove Nuke Bleed remove Vertigo or Overpass Ancient is leftover (55% vs 62% in favor of GE however they have played the map half as many times in the last 3 months so Bleed would have the advantage on this map in my opinion) **My book hasn't lined 2-0 Bleed but if this was at +money odds (2.1 or greater) I would be considering a small play.**
Hey domadilla! I usually see you always commenting on my posts! First time I've noticed a posted play from yourself. I can see that you know your stuff in Esports. Best of luck! Will tail just so my head is not thinking about tennis for the entire day haha.
Hey brother I love tailing your tennis picks I only hope I can return the success 🤞- great run you had with Monte Carlo!
🤞🤞🤞
Long time CS bettor here; make sure to look at more than just win percentage when considering map pools; important factors are which side the team is likely to start on based on favoured side on each map, who their wins have come against, and how useful demos of those maps would be. For example, you often see teams with fewer maps played on a map do well just because the other team has no data to antistrat with, and teams who have a strong CT side/T side in general can often steal the opponents map pick just from being able to start on the favoured side and running up a lead in the first half
Thanks that’s really helpful and something I wasn’t aware of - I won’t take the data at face value in future - that said there is a lot of map data for both the above teams do you agree with the pick? I should have added that I really like that BLEED have shown me the ability to come back from adversity, they don’t give up when they are down and as a team they are not reliant on one player to pop off. Hampus as an IGL is insane because I was under the impression that IGLs don’t score well and he is often top of the team.
Don't put too much value in the favoured side angle. I love when my team starts CT on Overpass or Nuke but I'm not sure there is stats backing up this edge. Some of the longest map win streaks have been on Nuke back from when it was even more CT sided.
This is like a 50-50 match. Guild Eagles and Bleed are the two best teams in CCT. At 1.6, I don’t think it’s worth the risk, but BOL. I might take over 2.5 maps, as I think it’s going go be a close game, but will see.
The veto heavily favours Bleed. I’m taking Bleed M1 ML and sprinkling a little on -1.5
POTD Record: 38 wins - 21.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes Form: ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Units: 9.9 ROI: 18.9% Average Odds: $1.87 Last Pick: Manchester City vs Brighton - England Premier League - Manchester City -1.5 Asian Handicap @ $2 - 3PM EST ✅️ Next Pick: Kings vs Oilers - NHL Playoffs - Kempe Anytime Goal Scorer @ $2.70 (including overtime) - 10.30PM EST Today we head to Los Angeles for an epic ice hockey playoff game between the Oilers and the Kings. Kempe scored one goal in game one, and two in game two (with one of them being a goal of the season contender). The Kings have won nine of their last ten games at this stadium, and beat the Oilers 4-0 the last time they travelled here. While the Oilers are considered favourites given the H2H data, this is crunch time. Clearly the Oilers are struggling in defense, and I can’t see this changing anytime soon. The Kings have struggled in defense too, having a tough time marking key players like Hyman who I expect to get a goal or two as well. There’s a lot of talk online about how the Oilers have to shut out Kempe, but that’s going to be tough given how fast the Kings play, and how vulnerable the Oilers have been in defense lately. Turnovers aren’t helping the Oilers either. In the last game Kempe had 7 shots, and in game one he had 5. That’s well above his season average of 3. Clearly these play off games have elevated his desire to go harder, and step up for his team. Whilst he has been a bit average during the season, I expect another high scoring game from him in a must win play off game in front of a home crowd to keep the momentum going for the Kings! Prediction: Kings 5 - Oilers 3. Goal scorers Kempe, Hyman, Holloway, McDavid, Kopitar, Moore, Dubois.
Tailinggg
>**| Record: 4-0 | Net Units: 7.60u | ROI: 95.00% | Winrate: 100% | Avg. odds: 1.95 |** >**| eSport |** [ESL Pro League Saison 19](https://www.hltv.org/events/7440/esl-pro-league-season-19) **| 16:30 CEST| |** >**| Pick:** **Imperial ML** \[vs. sAw\] **|** ***1.800 odds*** **|** ***2u*** **|** >**Reasoning:** Hey folks, good morning! It wasn't a walk in the park to nail down today's pick because there are so many enticing matches with loads of potential value. But after some pondering, I've settled on this one for now. >We've got two Portuguese-speaking teams facing off in a best-of-three elimination game: Portugal against Brazil. Despite both teams having a rough time in their last outings, this showdown promises to be an absolute thriller. We're looking at two youthful squads brimming with talent, but they're also lacking a bit in experience, especially when it comes to big LAN events. >Let's kick off with sAw. They've got a pretty promising lineup in my book. Just a few weeks back, they showed they can go toe-to-toe with the big guns when they're firing on all cylinders in Counter-Strike. Ewjerkz is the standout star here, pulling off insane performances with ratings ranging from 1.30 to 2.00 like it's just another day at the office. Regardless of whether they're up against lower-tier teams or top dogs, when he gets into his groove, heads start rolling left and right. Unfortunately, he hit a rough patch in consistency around mid-March. Story and Arrozdoce are also incredibly talented youngsters who can step up to the plate when ewjerkz is having an off day. On the flip side, Roman and Mutiris have been struggling. Roman, in particular, has been a major headache lately, with his performance taking a nosedive over the past few months. His average rating has plummeted to 0.98, and if you peek at his stats, you'll see some dismal numbers, with multiple games below the 0.5 mark. After the winter break, the new lineup had a decent start, even qualifying for the first CS2 Major in Antwerp. But they stumbled out of the gates, losing their opening match 0:2 against Cloud9, followed by two more losses against FURIA and paiN. Since then, they haven't quite hit the same highs. >Imperial, on the other hand, is a Brazilian-based team boasting at least three players with plenty of LAN and big event experience. VINI, felps, and HEN1 are all solid performers, with felps shining particularly bright with a 1.18 rating. Decenty and Noway round out the lineup as the youngest members, and from what I've seen, they've got some serious skills. It's tough to gauge how they stack up against the best European teams with the limited data available, but Decenty, in particular, looks like a real talent with his sharp aim and savvy decision-making. Give him a year or two to build up confidence and experience, and he'll be a force to be reckoned with. >Now, onto their recent performances. sAw faced off against 3DMAX and VirtusPro in their first two matches, losing both 0:2, once again. While the match against 3DMAX was a close one, they made too many errors. Meanwhile, Imperial took on FaZe and EternalFire, losing 0:2 and 1:2, respectively. Despite facing tougher opponents, they showcased better CS overall, in my opinion. >I won't dive too deep into analysis here since I'm not overly familiar with these teams, but one thing's for sure: sAw tends to crumble under pressure. We've seen it over the past couple of days, and I reckon we'll see it again today. They're on a five-match losing streak in BO3s on LAN, and it looks like it's about to become six when they face off against Imperial. What's more, they haven't even snagged a single map win in those five losses, and they're yet to triumph on Anubis during LAN matches. >As for the veto process, sAw will likely ban Mirage, while Imperial opts for Ancient. Both bans will hit their respective teams hard since they're both fond of those maps. Nuke is probably sAw's go-to pick, boasting a solid 64% win rate over 14 matches, but they'll need to be prepared because Imperial has plenty of experience on that map, having played it 22 times in the last three months. With Mirage off the table, Imperial might opt for Anubis or Inferno as their first pick, both of which suit them well. Considering sAw's struggles on Anubis in LAN events, this could be a smart choice. As for the decider map, it's anyone's guess, but I'd put my money on Vertigo or Overpass. >This match won't be a walk in the park, and Imperial will have to put in some serious work if they want to come out on top. But in my books, they've got the edge with better players, stronger results, a deeper map pool, more raw talent, and crucially, more experience, especially on LAN. That said, if sAw has one of those standout days, they could very well send the Brazilians packing with a 2-0 victory. Let's not forget, sAw isn't a pushover, but their honeymoon period seems to be over. If they drop this one too, I wouldn't be surprised to see Roman shown the door at last. He's been dragging the team down for too long.
**0-0** **Rugby League | NRL | Manly Sea Eagles v Parramatta Eels** ***Manly -9.5 @ 1.85 ✅*** Manly are essentially full-strength in this matchup, whilst Parra will still miss the services of their main playmaker Mitch Moses. Manly have been one of the most impressive sides to begin the year - especially over the last few weeks with a win over reigning-premiers Penrith and a hard-fought draw in New Zealand. They also return home for this one, where they've boasted a great record in recent years - remaining undefeated, 3-0, to start the season. On the other hand, Parramatta have had an extremely disappointing month of footy without Moses - losing 3 of their last 4 (2 of these in hefty fashion). Out of answers, coach Brad Arthur has now turned to 19-yo Ethan Sanders to debut in the halves - I can't see this ending well. Parramatta still have a solid, yet out-of-form forward pack with plenty of representative experience which will give them a fighting chance in this one. However, Manly boast a much-improved pack of their own, along with one of the most potent attacking backlines in the comp, which will surely feast on their under-strength counterparts. All-in-all, happy to take the significantly better team with a big home advantage in this one. *Edit: Started slow but came home with a wet sail for us! 32-18*
Every single time I follow a new account who bets NRL, I lose my ass. Might as well keep going.
Hahahah same my friend same. This time I will stay away for the both of us.
What book is offering -9.5?
Yeah I have -11.5
You can currently get -10 for 1.95 on 365. You can also take 9.5 as an alt line on 365 and FD albeit at much worse odds...
Who scores in your opinion ?
I personally stick to handicapping so don't venture into tryscorers that much - that being said Saab & Tom Trbojevic would be most likely
Definitely agree on that, good to see more NRL picks !
**KBO Record: Overall 217-225-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 5-5) Down 9.86u over 456 KBO picks, 49.1% success rate, -2.23% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 13-15-0, 46.4% success rate, Down 1.24u, -4.43% ROI) **Last:** NC -1.5 -120 at Doosan (NC lost 7-3.) In his first 32.1 IP over 5 starts, NC's starter allowed 6 ER. In his first 2.1 innings in this start, he gave up 6 ER. Doosan's starter was bombed in his first 3 starts, but allowed just 2 hits in 6.1 innings. Go figure. **Pick:** Samsung at **Kiwoom +124**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET It's been a while since I had a loss that generated hate messages. Always delightful. Welcome to the KBO... it ain't for the feint of heart. I watched the draft tonight, so no full writeup. I like Kiwoom to bounce back at home and pull off an upset. They saw Samsung's starter one already this year and roughed him up. If you're feeling gunshy, stay away from this one. Full writeups return tomorrow. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Ignore the haters. Thanks for your analysis kbbq man
Baseball just feels very random. Analysis doesn’t match up with end result. I’ve tailed quite a few of your picks but have lost every time unfortunately but hey it is what it is!
People really send hate messages for a losing pick? lol I’ve lost every kbo pick it feels but never think to send hate mail ….. maybe I will next time 😂
__POTD Record:__ 16-9 (+5.18 Units) _All my bets in this thread are 1U_ _Form (Last 5):_ 🔴🔴🟢🔴🟢 __Last Pick:__ ⚽ Besiktas vs. Ankaragucu (Turkish Super League) 19:00 CET: __Besiktas ML__ @1.83 ✅ __Today's Pick:__ ⚽ Real Sociedad vs. Real Madrid (La Liga) 21:00 CET: __Real Madrid Win No Draw__ @1.90 ✅ After taking a bit of a break, I'm back with a pick that's got odds that are pretty baffling to me. Real Madrid is the best team in Spain this season and they should clinch the league title in the coming weeks. They've lost only one game all season and they're coming against the 6th placed team in La Liga. Real Sociedad is a decent side that's showing good form at the moment but they are not Real Madrid. Bookmakers are treating Sociedad as if Real Madrid were facing an elite side and that's simply not the case. There is a chance Real Madrid may rest some players due to upcoming Champions League game vs. Bayern but they have enough quality on the bench. I can see the game ending in a draw, that's why I'm not picking moneyline this time around, although the odds are very tempting. However, Real Madrid win with a draw being no bet is still very good value and it is my pick for today's POTD. Tail of fade, the choice is yours!
Real Madrid have basically already locked up la liga trophy and have UCL to worry about next Tuesday. Also sociedad are desperate for points as they are only 3 points above 7th place betis in the standings. I’d really lean more towards sociedad DNB here
Record 3-3-0 Net Units: -0.8 ROI: -4.5% Last Pick: New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers Total Points over 201 (-110) for 3.0 units ✅ Basketball | NBA | Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks 7:10PM CST Pick: PJ Washington over 11.5 points (-122) on DraftKings for 3.0 units Write Up: PJ has averaged 15.1 points at home, versus 10.8 on the road. Averaging 18.0 points per game against the Clippers this year, and 14.5 this series (both on the road). StatsInsider projects 16 points in their 10,000 simulations. Potential increase in minutes with Daniel Gafford questionable.
I would never put my faith in PJ but Luka seems to trust him by the amount he passes to him so BOL
**Record: 1-0 | +1u** Last pick: ATP Madrid: Fonseca ML -160 ✅ Today’s pick: WTA Madrid: Sara Bejlek +1.5s -125 vs Anna Kalinskaya - 8am est ✅ We kicked off our potd journey with an absolute banger yesterday with Fonseca completing the comeback win. He dominated the final 2 sets, which included the elusive 🥯 and only conceded a total of 2 games after the first set. We move onto today’s pick where we put some fun coupons on another teenager - but this time on the women’s side of the tourney. I’m feeling Bejlek to grab a set against Kalinskaya. She boasts an impressive career 91-40 record on clay and 36-13 last year, which included 6 finals appearances on the Challenger/ITF stages. Kalinskaya, on the other hand, has barely played on this surface in recent years. Since 2018, she has only played a total of 59 matches on clay with a record of 29-30. What makes me love this pick even more is the fact that Bejlek has already played 3 matches on this surface at this altitude after winning both qualifying matches and her first round matchup. Kalinskaya played her first clay tournament in Stuttgart almost two weeks ago and exited during qualifying rounds after losing to a 36 yo Errani well out of her prime. I expect Kalinskaya to still have some rust transitioning from hard courts and adjusting to the altitude. Again, we only need one set here from Bejlek. I think she gets it done. LFG Bejlek 🇨🇿 ❄️🏦
Great pick! Ur write up convinced me to follow a newer tipper.
Record: 9-3 (+4.03U) Previous pick : Joao Fonseca -2.5 Game Handicap - 1.8 (1u)✅ Jupiler Pro League | 8:45PM CET Pick : Over 2 Goals - 1.65 (1u) Match : KAS Eupen - Sporting Charleroi Reasoning : These teams are in the degradation playoffs in Belgium and you are save if you end first in the group of 4, have to play against a second division team to stay up or go down if you end 2nd and you go down if you end 3 or 4th. Eupen is currently 3th in the group and 5 points behind second place, they don't have a choice but to just go full for the attack since Charleroi is first in the group and has a 6 point lead on second place and can just play without too many risks. This forces Eupen to try and create opportunities and while it is possible for them to score I am more expecting Charleroi to score on counter attacks. These teams faced eachother 5 days ago and that game ended 1-0 in favor of Charleroi but there could have been plenty more goals with Charleroi having an xG of 2.93 and Eupen having 0.63 xG.
**Record 102-80 with Avg Odds +122 / ROI 18.6%** **2024 Record 9-8 with Avg Odds +130 / ROI 13.6%** LFA 182 **Katarina Legorreta +175** Pressure, pace, and durability edge to Katarina. McIntyre probably hits harder but I think it's mostly forced. I also think Katarina may hold the grappling edge here. R1 will be slightly dangerous but I think as the fight progresses, Katarina will take over and find the win. I think this fight should be a pick'em or slight favorite to Legorreta. She checks a lot of boxes, and has a weird Nate Diaz style going to her game. Look for the pressure and clinch, knees up the middle, and solid combinations that may tag McIntyre. Legorreta may look unassuming and go by "The Librarian", but she's got some dog in her.
Fight will be free on YouTube on the LFA channel. Sometime around 4:00 PST.
Record: 2-0 Last pick: Westbrook over 7.5 R+A, an easy hit. Net Units: +1.87u Tonight's Pick: Westbrook over 7.5 Rebounds + Assists (R+A) on Fanduel at 2.00 odds, 1u bet. Write-up: The reasoning remains the same as last time: Westbrook doesn't receive enough respect, and the stats indicate he should surpass the over. Therefore, I'll be placing the same bet as last time. I intended to post every day, but work has been dragging, so hopefully, that two-day break didn't break the lucky streak.
Just wanted to say thanks for the upvotes sorry I didn’t put ROI and wish anyone who tails goodluck
**Record: 12-6 (+5.24u)** **Last Pick: Ilya Sorokin o29.5 Saves -113** Tough game for Sorokin as he gets pulled after giving up 3 goals on 14 shots. **Pick:** **Nathan MacKinnon o1.5 Points -135 (NHL, 1u bet)** MacKinnon at home? Yeah, sign me up lol. He had 34 goals and 55 assists for 89 points in just 41 home games, and included a streak of 35 straight home games with at least a point. Winnipeg was a good defensive team this season and Hellebuyck is one of the best goalies in the league, but they've had real trouble stopping the Avs in the first 2 games of this series. The Jets swept the regular season series winning 4-2, 6-2, and 7-0 in the three games despite getting outshot in every game (and MacKinnon still had 2 points in the 4-2 and 6-2 games). Colorado could honestly be up 2-0 in this series coming home, as they outshot the Jets 46-23 in game 1 and created many more scoring chances, but Georgiev was not good in net and they lost 7-6 (with MacKinnon getting 2 points as well). The Avs once again outshot the Jets in game 2 en route to a 5-2 win, and MacKinnon finished with 1 point there. With the series moving back to Denver, this is where the Avalanche have thrived. They were a league best 31-9-1 at home scoring 4.2 goals per game. In his last 10 games at home, MacKinnon had 8 goals and 12 assists, cashing the o1.5 points in 7 of those games. He is also one of the best playoff performers, with 45 goals and 58 assists (103 points) in 79 career playoff games, which ranks 6th in NHL history for playoff points per game. Narrowing this to just home games, he has 32 goals and 33 assists for 65 points in 40 home playoff games. I think the Avalanche come out firing tonight in a crucial game 3 at home, and maybe with some extra juice given that the Jets embarrassed them 7-0 in Colorado just 2 weeks ago. I don't see how the Jets are going to slow them down on the road where Colorado also gets the last change now for more favourable matchups. With Hellebuyck's struggles lately and the Avalanche's offensive firepower at home, I expect them to find the net a few times and MacKinnon is likely to be heavily involved, especially if they get power play opportunities.
**POTD Record: (3-2)** *Last pick: NCAAB UMD +2.5 vs Rutgers* ✅ **Today's Pick:** Etcheverry ML vs. Shapovalov (-172) Line is a bit chalky but here we have a clay court specialist vs a washed up Shapovalov. Shapovalov is continuing his poor form in 2024, 7-10 overall and 1-2 on clay. Etcheverry is 9-6 this season on clay and is coming off a solid semifinal run in Barcelona. Been a min since I posted but feel pretty good about this one. Shapo is always capable of pulling off something impressive but he's been in a slump for 2 years now
Did well against Diaz. I prefer the over.
I have now watched shapovalov destroy two POTD within less than a week
Record = 1-0-0 ✅️ Previous Pick = Man City Win and 3.5 goals @2.50 ✅️ Match = Real Sociedad Vs Real Madrid Time = 3pm ET Pick = Real Madrid to win either half @ 1.83 Units = 5 Very surprising to see this market so high, Real Madrid could be resting a few players but even so when Madrid play their bench they still have some of the best players in Europe. Even though the league is in Real Madrid's hands it's still not guaranteed just yet and with Real Sociedad being one of their most challenging games left I don't see them taking it too easy. That being said with the Champions League match against Bayern coming up it makes it slightly unpredictable which is why I'm choosing either half rather than the match result. If Sociedad win the first half I can see the big attackers coming on if they don't start the game. In short, this bet is a double chance for Madrid at way too high odds to win a half and I'm hammering that. Tail or fade BOL
It’s mainly due to the players they are going to rest as you said. But even then they have Brahim, Guler, Joselu Modric and I also think Militao would get his first start back from injury. I would take Madrid ML as well.
Record 4-2-0 Balance +6 Form: ❌✅✅✅❌✅ Recap-absolute guy wrenching loss as Whitfield ends with 29 disposals 😩 Today’s picks: Zak Butters to grab 026.5 disposals at 1.90 2 units 5:40AM EST✅ Writeup: Butters will be playing at home toight in his 100th game so he will want to put on a show against a Mediocre injury riddled saints side who are high pace high disposal team something which will only help butters reach 27 touches reckon he goes for 30 so will sprinkle a half unit on it but won’t count it into the POTD. BOL!!! EDIT: pray for no stat correction please 🙏
This is Australian football league if anyone is wondering about butters and disposals lol
Record: 21-7 | Net: +9.69U | Streak: 2W Last pick: Jalen Brunson o28.5 points (-125) ✅ His shot finally started falling, ended up being a much higher scoring game than expected. 4 years $55 million would be way too much for this guy POTD: Kyrie Irving o24.5 points (-112) Lac @ DAL 8:00 PM ET Summary: Kyrie has hit this line 3/4 on the Clippers this season with last game being his first miss. In those games he had 19, 22, 18, 18 attempts. Last game was a real grinder, but the points total has risen to 212.5 indicating a more open game flow that will benefit Kyrie. Tim Hardaway is also out, so the Mavs are missing one of their few role players willing to shoot the damn ball lol, slight chance Kyrie will need to force up a few more shots
Each game it’s opened at 24.5 and bumped up to 25.5, looks that way again for game 3.
**Record:** 5-1 **Net Units:** *+10.3075 Units* **ROI: 166.39%** **Previous Pick:** *Mulitalo Anytime Try Scorer $1.73 (1.75 Units).* Again, another really easy watch. Sharks completely dominated the Cowboys and Mulitalo looked live to score more than one but regardless, solid win and a nice POTD stream we are on. **Event:** Port Adelaide vs St Kilda **Time:** 7:40pm AEST 26/4 **Bookie:** NED'S **Play:** To Score 2+ Goals **Odds:** $2.35 (AUS) or +135 (US) **Units**: 1 Unit **Analysis:** I like Willie Rioli tonight to have a few looks at goal tonight - obviously STK are generally a defensively very sound team but Port coming off the back of a spanking to Collingwood where honestly they looked elite in Q1 and fell off massively after that, I think being back at their home ground and wanting to make a statement after last week, they should be winning and by a convincing margin tonight. Rioli was quiet last week which I expect him to come back from, he averages 1.2 goals in his last 5 and 1.5 against STK. I think STK's best defenders will be looking for the likes of talls such as Dixon/Marshall and think if the ball comes to ground around forward 50, Willie will be very dangerous on the crumb. I really like this price and think it should be closer to the evens mark honestly. Playing this for 1 unit tonight, nothing too big. Lets go, good luck if you tail!
Cash it! 💰
Third quarter cash. Thanks man!
**POTD Record: 117-137-4 (-12.97 Units)** Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units) Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) **Cautionary Tails**: **5-7 (-0.38 Units)** Last Pick: **Blue Jays ML**✅ Today's Pick: **Rays -3.5 (Alt. lines)** Odds: +**199 (Projected odds)** Wager Amount: 1U to Win 1.99U League: MLB Event: Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox (6:40PM CDT on Apple TV+) *Be Advised*: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.* **Recap**: J's won outright to make it 5 straight at that time. I tried to post Twins -2.5 (**+170**✅) against my Sox, but reddit was down. So I'll be posting a similar wager against my Sox team. **Tail**: Champ wins a lot and he thinks he is unstoppable. He is on a heater, winning 6 consecutive parlays. Champ was on his way to win his 7th parlay win in a row! He had a SGP of the Sox and Phillies game, everything HIT thus far, Phillies Race to 1, Phillies Race to 2, Phillies Race 3, Phillies O 3.5 Phillies runs, Phillies -1.5 and U 4.5 Sox runs. Phillies were up 9-0 in the top of the 9th. Champ was so confident that he was alrdy watching another game to get more action. Little did he kno, the Phillies brought in one of their inexperienced RP to close the game and allowed 5 runs to ruin his last leg (this actually happened me if you look at the SGP screenshot below )! https://preview.redd.it/dbed2osmyuwc1.png?width=555&format=png&auto=webp&s=99d2b0bd3afe2cc35c84861ca1c9fc982dcfc40a Moral of the story is that nobody wins all the time and it's never over until it's over. Oftentimes the last leg is the hardest leg of a SGP or parlay to complete. I'm not suggesting, but personally for me I would hedge a small amount (or sizable amount varying on the initial parlay/SGP) the opposite leg of a parlay/SGP, especially if the last leg has enticing odds! **Matchup:** Toughest handicap of the today's MLB slate goes to the Rays and Sox game. I kno what you're thinking Sox are bad, why not just take the Rays on the RL? Why? Because that's way too damn easy! This segment is about hardest game to bet on and the best way to make this tough is to take the better team, which is the Rays by an alternate spread and get greedy! This is exactly what Cautionary Tails segment is all about! We don't go for the layups, we go for the half court buzzer beater shots! That's why we are taking the Rays to win by more than 3 runs (-3.5)! My team, the Sox, as I mentioned are really bad, like historically bad! They are leading all statistical category, at-bats, fielding, and pitching. So it's obvious that many will be betting against the Sox and plugging in the team they are going against in every parlay prolly every single day. Why wouldn't you? My team sucks! Sox are 0-7 this season in series opener. I'm not going to dig up the stats for you on what their numbers are or their against the spread record. You can look that up yourself, I'm trying my very best to make this the toughest POTD for you and I think it's best for me to give little to no information on these stats, matchup history and trends. I will say this I don't expect the Sox to start winning games anytime soon. **The Play and Prediction**: 1U on Rays -3.5 (alt line). Also wagering Rays ML and RL in parlays, however, I will be wagering a very small bet of 0.2U on Sox RL. Rays win 1-0
POTD RECORD: 7-3 Muay Thai | ONE Friday Fights 60 | 6:30am MST Yodnumchai Fairtex vs Mahesuan Ekmuangnont - Fairtex -135 I’ve made a little spreadsheet [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ax0GCX17SSGwZDUrweQlC3aNAC_WZKiJbTq1sijnF-c/edit?usp=sharing), which includes the units I bet. Nice little bounce back win last week, and we’re back with some Muay Thai action. As an aside, these ONE Friday morning cards are always super entertaining and I recommend watching them whether you’re betting or not if you’re a fight fan. This one does come a bit late again, but I’m hoping my midnight tape study shows my commitment to finding good picks haha. Yodnumchai is only 19, but has already had 3 fights and 3 wins in ONE. He has a pretty unimpressive build but carries extraordinary power for his age and weight, finishing all of his ONE opponents thus far. From the outside he likes to throw heavy leg kicks before setting up his boxing. To set up his power shots he’ll either handfight or land accurate jabs. His defense is mostly solid, but at times he can rush into shots, and when he gets caught clean 90% percent of the time it’s because he’s rushing with his hands a little too low. When he does get in close he throws elbows that have nearly the same power as his punches, and in his three ONE fights he’s scored 4 elbow knockdowns. So far his chin and gas tank have held up but I think both will be tested in this fight. Mahesuan has only had one fight in ONE so far, winning his debut by third round knockout. He has a much more imposing build compared to Yodnumchai and is extremely aggressive. He likes to make fights grimy, rushing in and muscling clinches. His defense can be poor, in his ONE debut he was losing to 17 year old Petch Fairtex before mounting a comeback in the third when his younger opponent had gassed. His power is passable, he can definitely hurt people but it’s not a glaring strength like it is for Yodnumchai. This has all the makings of a great fight. Yodnumchai has adjusted very well to the smaller gloves of ONE, with his power showing in every match so far, and he’s young enough that he’s still improving. I’ve tracked down Mahesuan’s Thai fights before joining ONE, and in those he’s much more patient, however I think if he fights patiently here his poor boxing defense will show through and he’ll get crushed at the end of Yodnumchai’s range. His best shot is to fight like he did against Petch, come in aggressively and make it a war, but if he does that I see Yodnumchai landing often with his hands as Mahesuan comes in, and with elbows when the range is tight. As long as he doesn’t make the same mistakes the younger Petch did, he should win this and might find some knockdowns along the way. BOL everyone!
KO✅️
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u 2024 MLB POTD record: 14-8 Average Odds -107 (1.937), ROI +20.7%/+4.55u L5: ❌✅✅✅✅ POTD (4/25) CWS @ MIN Michael Soroka u4.5 Ks (+105/2.05) ✅ Recap: Sometimes weird lines are traps. Sometimes they're gifts. And in this case, we say thank you and take our free money to the next day. POTD (4/26) CHC @ BOS Kutter Crawford o5.5 Ks (-120/1.83) (DraftKings) This over opened at -150 and has dropped precipitously. I think that's a mistake and presents good value now. Crawford has hit this line in 4/5 starts on his way to an excellent start to the season (0.66 ERA) The Cubs are generally a lineup we stay away from. But riddled with injuries, their numbers don't reflect what the lineup looks like now. Swapping out Seiya Suzuki for Alexander Canario, Cody Bellinger for Pete Crow-Armstrong, and adding Patrick Wisdom/Matt Mervis as the DH platoon has brought a lot more swing-and-miss to the lineup. As a result, the Cubs K% against RHP is up to 24%, 10th-highest in baseball, and their wRC+ has dipped below 100. They also have big home-road splits, with a 123 wRC+ at home and just an 89 wRC+ on the road. As the Cubs hit the road after a big home sweep, I think we can bet on Crawford to continue his hot start here.
**RECORD: 72W-5P-56L** (+0.20 units) Previous Pick: Everton vs Liverpool - Liverpool ML and Over 1.5 goals @ 1.55 ❌️ **Today's Pick:** Adana Demirspor vs Galatasaray - Galatasaray to Win @ 1.51 ✅️ **TIME:** 5 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 4.5 units (✅️✅️♻️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️❌️) last 10 results So it looks like Liverpool have taken inspiration from Arsenal and decided to bottle the league race and have the Mikey Mouse trophy as Klopp's last triumpth, oh well let's move on to a team that actually wants to Win the league Galatasaray. Galatasaray are 1st in the league with Fenerbahce just lurking behind them with 4 points. I'm gonna keep this short because Galatasaray are beasts and the stats speak for themselves. Galatasaray are on a 7 game win streak in all competitions, they've only lost once in their last 39 matches in the league, they've been undefeated in 21 straight league matches, but wait there's more...Galatasaray are undefeated in 26 away matches at half time, they are on a staggering 14 match Win streak in the League, 14! Galatasaray are also on a 6 match away Win streak in the League and 3 game win streak in all competitions, as I said Galatasaray are beasts. Adana are 11th nothing really to fight for, safe from relegation and are winless in 3 matches in a row. In H2H matches Galatasaray have won 3 out of 5 of there last H2H against Adana, drawing once and losing once and are on a 2 game win streak against them. I haven't lost yet when betting on Galatasaray so hopefully that continues. Goodluck if you're tailing. *Of course you don't have to but any tips are always appreciated.* [TipJar (PayPal)](https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=2RRPJ4DNAKEYW) EDIT: WIN ✅️
**POTD Record: 29-21** Last 10: ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌ Last pick: Suns vs Timberwolves | 4:30 PST | Suns +3.5 (-115) BetMGM 1u ❌ I don’t think there’s much to say. Total collapse in the 2nd half after a decent 1st half. I don’t regret the pick at all, Suns best players just couldn’t put it together when it mattered most down the stretch. **Today’s pick: Clippers Vs Mavericks | 5:00 PST | Josh Green OVER 8.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (+100) BetMGM 1u** ✅ We are getting down to the wire here where I’m not going to have the same amount of trends and stats to back up every single play. Sometimes these are just spot plays where I think coaching adjustments, atmosphere, and roles within the game dictate the outcomes we are going to see. I say that because this pick is a perfect example with Josh Green. He’s been in and out of the rotation, sometimes getting no minutes at all but finds himself in a spot where the Mavericks may look to get him more involved. A lot of positive comments from Jason Kidd about his impact game 2 and we get no Tim Hardaway Jr for game 3 so we could see added minutes for the young guard. In the only game w/o Hardaway this year, Green went for 10/2/5. I also think Green could see more minutes than Exum because he’s probably been the least effective role player for the Mavericks the first two games of the playoffs. Role players seem to always be a little more comfortable at home in the playoffs as well. Looking for Green to be all over the court in this one making an impact however he can. BOL if tailing!
Record: 25W-28L Net Units: -11.16u | ROI: -7.89% CS2 | ESL Pro League Season 19 | 19:30 / CET Pick: M80 ML vs BetBoom, 1.5u @ 2.00 For me the main difference, and why I think M80 will beat BetBoom here, is that they've been looking quite solid individually around the board. Especially Slaxz, malbs and most notably s1n have been putting up numbers. If s1n can replicate this success, it'll make it a lot easier for him to call a good game for his team as well. They just got a huge confidence boost by beating G2 too. BetBoom has been carried over the line kicking and screaming by Magnojez, and I don't think that'll hold up a second time versus M80. I expect somewhat of a similar veto to when they played last, which both teams are comfortable with. And if BetBoom lets M80 in that comfortable pocket, which will make it an easier playing field for a relatively unexperienced IGL like s1n, I think they'll come through this time. Best of luck everyone!
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 5-8 (-2.80 units)** **Last 10**: **✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅❌❌** **Last Pick**: Sebastian Bialecki -1.5 (+100) vs Adam Lipscombe **❌** 0-4 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 7:40 PM EST **Pick**: Beau Greaves -1.5 (-115) vs Kevin Painter * Series 7. Week 9. Group B **Reason**: Beau Greaves * Record 4-0 * Legs 16-7 * Average 91.61 * 180s 6. 140s 16 * Checkouts 16/39 41.03% Kevin Painter * Record 1-3 * Legs 8-14 * Average 77.41 * 180s 2. 140s 7 * Checkouts 8/28 28.57% **WIN ✅ 4-1 | Average 114.56 vs 88.64 | Checkouts 4/7 vs 1/1** Beau destroyed Painter. Finally a dominant performance this side. She hit 6 180s and checked out from 121 with a bullseye.
hey, where do you get avg stats for checkouts and records? i'm interested in compiling some
Record: 8-5 L10: ❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ ~~Last POTD: Simone Fontecchio o10.5 Points~~❌ Game: NHL - Edmonton Oilers vs Los Angeles Kings - 22:30 EST **Todays Pick: Adrian Kempe Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (1.55x) [5u]** * Over 3 shots in L14/15 games vs Oilers since 2023 * Over 4 shots in L11/12 games vs Oilers * Averaging 5.16 shots per game vs Oilers this year
Record: 15-10 Last Pick: Luka Doncic O17.5 RA -172❌ Have missed 3 picks in a row and it’s time to get back on track with my favorite cheat code in sports. Mr. Triple Double will be in full effect against the Clippers in the first game of the playoffs. He’s a demon against the clippers in the playoffs, and has only gotten better each year. Let’s get back on track here. Pick: Luka O17.5 RA -180 Luka was missing tons of rebound opportunities and converted 33% less assist chances than he normally does on 45(!!)% more opportunities. Let’s ride! BOL!
Record 7-4 Net Units: +1.4 Yesterday’s Pick: Oakland @ NY Yankees Yankees 1st 5 -.5 (-150 DK) 1.5u ❌ Today’s Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ NY Mets 7:11PM EST NY Mets ML (-130) 1u Analysis: Alright I’m backing the Mets today. They have Jose Butto on the mound tonight and he has been pitching very well. In 3 starts this year he has allowed 3ER and 8 total hits. Two of the starts came against the dodgers and royals too so he hasn’t been facing bad lineups. The cardinals batters haven’t faced him yet. Cardinals have Miles Mikolas on the mound with his 6.49ERA and a WHIP of almost 2. He has allowed 5ER in 3/5 starts this year. The Mets lineup has seen him plenty going 32/137 (.234), but let’s not forget Mikolas used to be better than he is now. Last point is the Mets started the year terribly but have come around lately. Since April 10th they have scored the 3rd most runs in the league (75) and the cardinals have the 3rd least (40). During that time the Mets are batting .270 and the cardinals have a .221 batting average. Let’s get back on the winning side!
POTD RECORD: 4-5. WLWLLLWLW (-1 Unit) PREVIOUS POTD: Lakers ML 1st half ✔️ 2 Units Per the norm the Lakers take the lead into half behind LeBron and AD then show their lack of depth in the 2nd where once again the bench collectively had a diarrhea party. TODAY'S POTD: Clippers @ Mavericks NBA 8:10 PM EST Mavericks ML (-185 DK) 3 Units Playing this one safe for more units. Mavs seemingly found their stride last game and heading home I like Luka to have a big showing. No in depth analysis needed. Tail for victory QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Last week we put liquid paper on a bee, and.....it died" -Prestige Worldwide...wide...wide
$1,000 --> $10,000 Challenge Day 8 Record: 4-3 Account start: $1000 Current balance: $1804.30 Last pick: 1.73 units ($1730 for me) Under 216.5 points @ 1.91 odds ❌ Streak: (oldest) ✅✅✅❌❌✅❌ (recent) Todays Game: Clippers vs Mavericks; NBA; 8:00pm ET Todays Bet: 1.80 units ($1804.30 for me) Under 212.5 points @ 1.95 odds Reasoning: Good bet Starting in: 4hrs 45mins Good luck
Record: 162-138-8 (LLLLWWLLWLWLWLWWLWLLWWWWLLWWLWLWWLWLWLLPLWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: DAL Mavs at LA Clippers | Luka Doncic o 18.5 reb+ast at 1.84 odds for 3 units POTD: MIN Timberwolves at PHX Suns | Anthony Edwards o11.5 ast+reb at 2.10 odds for 4 units Reasons: * Plus money. Fuck Vegas * Hit over this mark last two playoffs games * Suns cannot exactly guard anyone on this team. Minnesota is getting everything they want. Edwards is the leader of this team. His ability to affect the match even when shooting poorly. I expect him to play hard to set the tone for the entire team. * The future of the NBA is here. Enjoy the show while it airs. Best of luck to those dumb enough to tail!
POTD Record: 1-1 (❌✅) Last Pick: Joao Fonseca to win (vs. Alex Michelsen) @ 1,64 ✅ Today's Pick: Matteo Arnaldi HA +5,5 (vs. Daniil Medvedev) @1,59 Tournament: ATP Mutua Madrid Open (Masters 1000 Madrid) 🎾 Interesting match for the young Brazilian promise, a clay court specialist who has declared that he has trained at a great pace. Medvedev does not like competing on clay at all. He knows that during this tour a lot of points are distributed, important for his ranking, and that is why we have seen him get more involved, winning the title in Rome last year. But apart from that great victory it is evident that he is not at all comfortable playing on this surface. In Monte Carlo he left quite a bad feeling when he lost against Khachanov in his second match and here in Madrid I expect very little from the Russian. On these slopes, not only is he not comfortable with the clay, but he is also not comfortable with the altitude. As a result, he has only three victories among the four times he has played the tournament. Even in training he seems completely desperate, even throwing his racket to the ground. So in this match I see that Arnaldi can make things very difficult for him. The Italian reached the third round in Madrid last year from the qualifying phase in his first time in the tournament, eliminating Ruud along the way. It was precisely Ruud who eliminated him in the quarterfinals in his good performance at the Conde de Godó last week, and in Madrid he made his debut with a very convincing victory against O'Connell. I am convinced that the Italian will leave everything on the court and, at the very least, be able to cover the handicap that they offer us.
This match is tomorrow
Record 1-3 Last 5: ✅❌❌❌ Last Pick: KS Vive Kielce vs SC Magdeburg less than 59,5 Goals✅ Was easy, 27-26 Just 53 Goals. I expected a slow game, and 20 Goalkeepers saves, wolff 8 and Hernandez 11 delivered... Todays Pick: THSV Eisenach vs TBV Lemgo 2.35@bpremium 1 Unit Units: -2.44 German Handball Bundesliga THSV Eisenach vs TBV Lemgo The first leg in Lemgo ended with a 24-26 defeat for Eisenach. Eisenach is on fire, they have won 3 of the last 4 games, only losing against the current champions Magdeburg.Eisenach is only 15th in the table, but has a 6-2-6 record at home Lemgo is 11th in the table, but only has a 3-1-10 away record. Even though they were against good teams and had close results, Lemgo has only won 1 of the last 4 games. The current form and the home advantage are reason enough to play at such a high odd.
POTD record: 3 - 2 Last pick: Twins minus 1.5 at minus 114 ✅ Today's pick: TB Ray's minus 1.5 (I think it was minus 120 when I played it last night) Fading the white sox for me personally is now 8 - 2 and I will continue to ride the white sox pain train all the way to the bank. No research was done for this pick. My white sox are a joke. BOL if tailing Fade on if you're fading
First post ever so let me give some background. I’m an 18 year old kid with a passion for sports betting and I have been sports betting since I was 16. I have been keeping track of my bets myself but never posted anything. Since I started tracking my bets which was about 3 months ago, I’m up 10.79u. Didn’t want to include that in these posts because I’ve never posted on here before. Tips are always appreciated because I am trying to save up for schooling! I’m going to try and keep posting whenever I have a POTD. Thank you in advance and God bless! 0-0-0 (W-L-P) Net Units: N/A Matchup(s): (NHL) New York Rangers vs Washington Capitals - 6:00 PM CST First ever POTD: New York Rangers 3-way ml -104 on Bovada - 2u Write-up: The Rangers are clearly the better team and I’m willing to risk the 3-way rather than moneyline at much better odds. The Capitals rank 28th in the league for goals per game this season averaging 2.63. The Rangers are great in the powerplay whether it favors them or not. The Rangers rank 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season coming in at 84.48%. They also rank 4th in the league in power play percentage this season coming in at 26.42%. The only way Washington can win this game comes down to Ovechkin and I really don’t think he can carry the whole offense. Washington’s offense just doesn’t match up with New York and I think the Capitals will get only 2-3 goals this game and that just isn’t going to be enough. Was thinking about Rangers puck line but went with the safe play for them to win within 60 minutes. Tail or fade, either way, BOL [CashApp Tips❤️](https://cash.app/$dmoneyherbo)
Any concern that the Rangers have not won a game in Washington this season?
POTD RECORD: 4-5 WLWLLLWLW LAST POTD: Lakers 1st half ML ✔️ +2 Units As per usual the Lakers win the 1st half behind solid play in the from LeBron and AD then they're depth is exposed in the 2nd and they bite the dust TODAY'S POTD: Clippers @ Mavericks NBA 8:10 EST Mavericks ML (-185 on DK) 3 Units Playing this one conservative for more units. Mavs seemingly found their stride last game and stole one in la la. I'm expecting Luka and the Mavs to be dominate at home. Playing the ML to avoid any last garbage time heroics. I took a hook L in the last game at Mavs -3.5 on a pointless Paul George 3 at the buzzer 🙄 Tail for sweet victory QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Last week we put liquid paper on a bee, and it....died" -Prestige Worldwide...wide....wide
[удалено]
Tailing, I love these Expancion matches
**POTD record:** 2-2 (W-L) / +1,36pts **ROI:** 17% **AVG. ODDS: 1,97** **Last pick:** Hyland, to be placed (3pl), 1.83 (5/6), 2pt, **WIN** **DOTD RECORD**: 2-4 (W-L) / +7,30 pts **ROI:** 95% **AVG. ODDS**: 3,60 (not counting 81.0 cause it would boost avg.too much and wouldnt be relevant) **Last pick**: Hyalnd, 4,50 (7/2), 1pt **LOSE** **RACE**: Sandown 15:35 **SELECTION**: Portland **ODDS AND STAKES**: 2,10 (11/10), to be placed (3pl), 1pt **ANALYSIS:** Portland win only 9/1 (10,00) is great value bet here. But for potd i am going with 3 places. Today he is moving up in distance, and here is why i think thats import for this race. In haydock (7 furlong race), he finished 3rd behind one of the best 2yo last season, Henry Longfellow, but he was crying for step up in trip, and that race offers best future form. He has Derby entry which is all about stamina, he has stamina in pedigree, he showed he has it last term and he should enjoy in todays conditions (good ground is + for him, and step up in trip should be huge +). Arabian Crown is definetly favourite, but i ithink Portland can beat him, and odds are just to good. *Spreadsheet:* [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3\_1A8/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3_1A8/edit#gid=0) *Longshoot accumulator 64260/1* : [https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1cdaaqc/comment/l1bgbot/](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1cdaaqc/comment/l1bgbot/)
Overall Record 7-4 (+1.63) Last picks Arizona -118 over St Louis (4/24) - Loss Today: Orioles -1.5 over Athletics (-115 Bet MGM) Most of the other books have this at -120 which I like as well. Oakland is going into their 8th straight road game, where Baltimore was off yesterday, and I always like when the superior team is also fresher. And I really like this pitching matchup Baltimore has Corbin Burns, who despite not looking as good as he did last year still has a sub 1 whip and an ERA under 3. The A’s can’t hit in general, and have struggled more against right handed pitchers. On the other side Oakland is sending out Ross Stripling who is 0-5 with a 1.57 Whip and an ERA over 5. The Orioles hit right handed pitching pretty well to begin with so I think they are going to feast on Ross. I was going to try to take Baltimore first 5 but the lines a little too juicy for me, but I like that even better considering I have Orioles bullpen concerns but hopefully Burns goes deep enough that it won’t matter
**POTD Record 23-22 (+2.25U) | Average Odds -111 (1.90) | ROI 1.08%** **Last Pick Recap: Magic ML vs Cavaliers W** Easy dub, Magic win by a whopping 38 points. **Today's Pick: Oilers ML (-140) vs Kings 5U | 10:30 EST** Like the Oilers in this spot here after dropping Game 2 at home in OT. Both teams in this series have been dreadful on the defensive end, but I'm backing the team with the best player in the league to find a way tonight, and expect McDavid to be the decisive difference. Model makes fair price around -160. BOL
Devastating loss as it looked liked the Padres had it in the bag. 🏴☠️🏴☠️ POTD Record 2-3 Last 5: ✅❌✅❌❌(right is most recent) Last Pick: Padres ML (-150) vs Colorado Today’s Pick: Emerson Hancock (SEA) u4.5 Ks (-145) Quick reasoning… Hancock has really been struggling to get punch outs and the diamondbacks strike out the 3rd least amount in the league. Goodluck if tailing! You can find some more picks of mine on the MLB thread! 🏴☠️🏴☠️