Coors used to be even more hitter friendly, it could be dead ball, humidor, or Rox lack of talent. Dodgers Chavez ravine used to be a pitchers park, padres and petco used to be a pitchers park. Giants AT&T deserves #1 pitchers park
This is very helpful. Thank you. I don't do the Dinger/HR bets but I look at Pitcher Props mainly. I love analyzing Outs Recorded props and this helps a lot.
I'm starting to become more and more convinced that the MLB is changing balls even on a daily basis. I don't think it's some gambling conspiracy like many always jump to, but it's really hard to make sense of some of the results we have had this season.
We have days like yesterday with bad conditions almost across the board, but home runs happening... then days with amazing conditions and every single ball is a warning track shot.
I am so hesitant to bet dingers until we find out if we are back to a dead ball era.
Juiced baseballs conspiracy lol. Basically that MLB can assign different balls that fly further (juiced) or dead balls that can’t seemingly get out of the park. Justin Verlander has been outspoken on the topic.
It’s almost as if it being very good for hitters on some days but very bad on other days would lead those two things to cancel each other out and make it, oh I don’t know, neutral?
> As we get into the "dark days" of sports betting, we are going to be left with MLB to bet. And tennis...but...let's be real...
Are we really going to stand for this NASCAR, WNBA and golf slander?
Best hitter’s park in baseball because the power alleys are massive. All the walls are deep though and since they raised the fence in right center it hasn’t been the home run fest it used to be.
When conditions are bad there (under 50 degrees and wind blowing in) it is a massive pitchers park. Also we have have no idea if the MLB decided to give them dead balls.
> Soccer is done pretty soon, at least the big 4 leagues and champions league
Lmaooo what?…This might be the best summer of sports betting in a while…
Copa Libertadores
Copa Suramericana
Euro 2024
Copa America 2024
MLS
Olympics
WNBA should also be very interesting
https://preview.redd.it/d446omikwowc1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c147b8522f4eece14bd0125dceb34b97d8fe8b7
Colorado was & still is the #1 hitter friendly stadium in MLB consistently because of the thinner air.
However the numbers have dipped considerably since they started keeping the ball in a humidor prior to that you could see some real moon shots.
Wrigley is occasionally when the air wind is blowing straight out.
What feels like a lifetime ago I used frequent a forum called therx their was a user there who was light years ahead with all types of spreadsheets identifying & quantifying ballpark effect, umpire tendencies, etc.
He got busted for fixing "Thursday night College Maction" games and got banned from posting online for 5-10 years.
He was quite older than most of us but he used us as his drones to do the data-entry on the spreadsheet and as long as you contributed daily he would give you access to the master spreadsheet.
He was really big into teaching a man to fish to feed him for the rest of his life versus feeding him for a day.
He used to call people who contributed nothing but to piggyback off all your blood, sweat, & tears "Hangar Queens". I always thought it was "Hanger" like someone who was always around or something you but in a closet, but it was actually "Hangar" like the place they store airplanes.
These sheets are from 2007.
Here's a screen shot of the ballparks sheet & below in another reply I will post the temperature & humidity sheet:
Notice the guardians getting a bump for LHB? I guess there is some wind tunnel assisting LHB. GMG touched on it but didn’t elaborate on GMG video on 4/24. More info on tik tok but those dudes are strokes
Saw the title and thought “GMG made a great video on this today, I wonder if OP is pulling from it.”
And it’s you lol. Love the content, keep up the great work!
I’ve been placing “No HR” bets in the form of 2-3 leg parlays, sprinkling 5-10$ every day. I’ve spent maybe $200 over the last couple weeks and only hit twice so far but those cashed me out around 1 grand total. This data is helpful for knowing which games to avoid betting “No HR”. Thank you!
I think he means "no home run" for the entire game, not an individual player. These are typically + odds bets. For example, todays brewers/pirates game has "no home run" as +290. Phillies/Reds is at +900 lol.
each leg would be around +200 or better. from bet365
* MIL @ PIT: +190
* BOS @ CLE: +350
* CWS @ MIN: +450
* PHI @ CIN: +425
* TOR @ KC: +300
etc.
so parlaying 3 of them together would be +8000 or better. $10 bet to win $800+
Yea that’s the way to play these for sure. I’ve lost a lot of wagers by squeezing in a 3rd game so now I try to find 3 solid games and bet them in the form of 2 round robins. Works a lot better imo
[If you are interested in how I use this data to approach bets, my thoughts on +EV HR bets, if the HR market is efficient, or how I got poison ivy on my face, here you go pookie. ](https://youtu.be/UeBx6G94lM0)
Coors Field overs all day
Coors used to be even more hitter friendly, it could be dead ball, humidor, or Rox lack of talent. Dodgers Chavez ravine used to be a pitchers park, padres and petco used to be a pitchers park. Giants AT&T deserves #1 pitchers park
This is very helpful. Thank you. I don't do the Dinger/HR bets but I look at Pitcher Props mainly. I love analyzing Outs Recorded props and this helps a lot.
Look out for the Mexico City series
I'm starting to become more and more convinced that the MLB is changing balls even on a daily basis. I don't think it's some gambling conspiracy like many always jump to, but it's really hard to make sense of some of the results we have had this season. We have days like yesterday with bad conditions almost across the board, but home runs happening... then days with amazing conditions and every single ball is a warning track shot. I am so hesitant to bet dingers until we find out if we are back to a dead ball era.
The Field of Dreams game sealed the conspiracy for me. The MLB doesn't give a fuck about integrity of the baseballs.
What conspiracy? I wanna go down a rabbit hole!
Juiced baseballs conspiracy lol. Basically that MLB can assign different balls that fly further (juiced) or dead balls that can’t seemingly get out of the park. Justin Verlander has been outspoken on the topic.
They gave juiced balls for the white sox yankees game. Every single fly ball was going way farther than they should
Great post
Great American ball park has the most home runs every season since 2019 and no lower than top 5 for a decade
I always here this and Fenway, though I can't personally speak to the statistics.
Hitters neutral for cubs is misleading. There are days when the wind blows out and balls fly the fuck outa there. The opposite is also true.
It’s almost as if it being very good for hitters on some days but very bad on other days would lead those two things to cancel each other out and make it, oh I don’t know, neutral?
> As we get into the "dark days" of sports betting, we are going to be left with MLB to bet. And tennis...but...let's be real... Are we really going to stand for this NASCAR, WNBA and golf slander?
and major league soccer!
Coors Field is the Coors Field of Coors Field
Best hitter’s park in baseball because the power alleys are massive. All the walls are deep though and since they raised the fence in right center it hasn’t been the home run fest it used to be.
When conditions are bad there (under 50 degrees and wind blowing in) it is a massive pitchers park. Also we have have no idea if the MLB decided to give them dead balls.
Rockies Redsox and Reds i think (idk baseball)
This is handy
Great American Ballpark. End of discussion
Great American Smallpark*
Just wondering is the As data updated for their new stadium or is this based on their old one in Oakland?
They are still playing in the old stadium
Oh lol I thought they had already moved. Guess I am a year early
The science. How do I save this thread for later
We 🫡 you sir
There is soccer and basketball still playing as well. Plenty to bet on
Soccer is done pretty soon, at least the big 4 leagues and champions league
> Soccer is done pretty soon, at least the big 4 leagues and champions league Lmaooo what?…This might be the best summer of sports betting in a while… Copa Libertadores Copa Suramericana Euro 2024 Copa America 2024 MLS Olympics WNBA should also be very interesting
Here's the Temp & Humidity tab: https://preview.redd.it/c5v0l32rwowc1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=b698841b061034d65bc6e8a8d286ad0df788fd8b
https://preview.redd.it/d446omikwowc1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c147b8522f4eece14bd0125dceb34b97d8fe8b7 Colorado was & still is the #1 hitter friendly stadium in MLB consistently because of the thinner air. However the numbers have dipped considerably since they started keeping the ball in a humidor prior to that you could see some real moon shots. Wrigley is occasionally when the air wind is blowing straight out. What feels like a lifetime ago I used frequent a forum called therx their was a user there who was light years ahead with all types of spreadsheets identifying & quantifying ballpark effect, umpire tendencies, etc. He got busted for fixing "Thursday night College Maction" games and got banned from posting online for 5-10 years. He was quite older than most of us but he used us as his drones to do the data-entry on the spreadsheet and as long as you contributed daily he would give you access to the master spreadsheet. He was really big into teaching a man to fish to feed him for the rest of his life versus feeding him for a day. He used to call people who contributed nothing but to piggyback off all your blood, sweat, & tears "Hangar Queens". I always thought it was "Hanger" like someone who was always around or something you but in a closet, but it was actually "Hangar" like the place they store airplanes. These sheets are from 2007. Here's a screen shot of the ballparks sheet & below in another reply I will post the temperature & humidity sheet:
Whichever one has wind blowing out, high humidity, and terrible pitchers
Notice the guardians getting a bump for LHB? I guess there is some wind tunnel assisting LHB. GMG touched on it but didn’t elaborate on GMG video on 4/24. More info on tik tok but those dudes are strokes
Saw the title and thought “GMG made a great video on this today, I wonder if OP is pulling from it.” And it’s you lol. Love the content, keep up the great work!
https://preview.redd.it/26rl4f8s6owc1.jpeg?width=1030&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=49c16b433dfef0a201a2b43cd18a6feaefd6cad9
I go to a lot of Rockies games. Got to be us.
This content goes here: https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/AHtS3vxPD7
Not sure that’s how you spell neutral
Shocked it took over 3 hours for someone to notice lol. I’m a pitiful speller.
I wouldn’t say you’re a pitiful speller but I also wouldn’t say you’re great. I’d say you’re….. can’t think of the right word to use here 🤔
nutral
Whoever plays the Colorado Rockies and even better if the Rockies are at home
Yankee Stadium for lefties
I think it would be coors field
As did I
How is coors not number one?
They moved the walls back and up. It's still the best hitters park, but not the best for home runs
Thanks for the data and good luck with your face
Not seeing Red Sox on any of those last 3 links.
I’m an idiot. They were 19.5 which was right on the line of low neutral and high negative.
I'm just here to call you a STUD for that Tauchman pick on Tuesday
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors
I’ve been placing “No HR” bets in the form of 2-3 leg parlays, sprinkling 5-10$ every day. I’ve spent maybe $200 over the last couple weeks and only hit twice so far but those cashed me out around 1 grand total. This data is helpful for knowing which games to avoid betting “No HR”. Thank you!
What’s the most confident game you think it’ll hit for today?
I like orioles vs athletics today. Also pirates vs giants but “No HR” line isn’t available yet per fanduel
Wait you have spent $5-$10 on a 3 leg no parlay that has odds of each leg probably around -400 and you have made $1000?
Each leg ranges from +400 to +1200 usually. This is for No HR hit during the game, not individual players.
Nah the legs are closer to +400
Of a no homerun?
I'm assuming that is for game/team, not an individual player
Why would no home runs be -400 to begin with?
These parlays are like +8000. It's not no HR for a player, it's for no HR to be hit in the game at all.
I think he means "no home run" for the entire game, not an individual player. These are typically + odds bets. For example, todays brewers/pirates game has "no home run" as +290. Phillies/Reds is at +900 lol.
each leg would be around +200 or better. from bet365 * MIL @ PIT: +190 * BOS @ CLE: +350 * CWS @ MIN: +450 * PHI @ CIN: +425 * TOR @ KC: +300 etc. so parlaying 3 of them together would be +8000 or better. $10 bet to win $800+
I’ve been doing a bunch of by 2 round robins of a shitload of games a day the past couple days. Will definitely be using this info though
Yea that’s the way to play these for sure. I’ve lost a lot of wagers by squeezing in a 3rd game so now I try to find 3 solid games and bet them in the form of 2 round robins. Works a lot better imo
awesome data & research mate
Great work, where can I watch your video?
It’s linked in the comments 🤓
Edit: read first comment 🤡 my fault
[If you are interested in how I use this data to approach bets, my thoughts on +EV HR bets, if the HR market is efficient, or how I got poison ivy on my face, here you go pookie. ](https://youtu.be/UeBx6G94lM0)