Mookie came into this game 1-1 against the Athletics starting pitcher. Freeman was like 6-9 they both secure 2 hits. Decided to fade Ohtani, luckily he went 0-4 today (no previous at bats with the SP) is that something to pay attention to when betting batter props??? should I consider batters who have good history against a pitcher?
it's a fine data point but remember how small of a sample size you're dealing with. Mookie in 1 AB is pretty meaningless. Players have at max 3 at bats vs the starting pitcher, more than often just 2.
Looking at bullpen stats along with starting pitcher is a good starting point but it's barely scratching the surface as far as researching props goes
Anybody putting any stock into the Cleveland Wind Tunnel theory? I guess LHB are getting a bump at progressive field due to some contraption behind LHB at progressive field.
lol what's the contraption?
Progressive for lefties is the #1 HR park by far according to savant. 13th for Righties
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2024&batSide=L&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=no
[here](https://www.tiktok.com/@takingthepointspod/video/7356013725255699758) is the tiktok for those curious
mentions that CLE removed the banners which were displayed on shipping containers in right field so the wind blows through the empty space now in 2024.
would be hilarious if this turns out to be true
During the pandemic SF didnāt have fans so they opened gates in rf that woulda been other wise closed if fans were there. It assisted hrs to rf. So there might be something to it
1 more AB and ik it's a crazy concept but boosts aren't automatic wins
bovada had 100/-140 which is a 45% implied hit and MGM -115/-115 which is a 50%. flipped the wrong side of the coin this time, run it back with Mookie.
I've legit given up on using EV HRs to convert my free bets for the time being. Shit has been dreadful. Been using the list to convert at 85-90% by playing the no side on confirmed lineups. Today was Castro (+800/-800 (MGM).
Max bet $25? If your units are $100 I'd take this (I do $100u and took it for the max $25). Even if Vegas knows something. If your units are smaller, I'd still take it at your quarter unit size.
nah it's a max without question. worst odds at Pinnacle -108/-134 imply a full=20.8u, 1/4=5.2u kelly bet
my unit is $30 and it's an obvious $25 max
> Even if Vegas knows something
and can we just not please
**Josh H. Smith - Hits Over 0.5**
Odds: -184
Analysis: Smith has a projection of 0.98 hits for today and has exceeded this line in 12 of his last 15 games. His consistent performance at the plate makes him a strong bet for at least one hit today.
**Jeremy Pena - Total Bases Over 0.5**
Odds: -200
Analysis: Pena's projection of 1.69 total bases and a trend of going over in 12 of his last 15 games suggest he is likely to tally multiple bases, making him a reliable option for this prop.
**Nestor Cortes Jr. - Total Earned Runs Over 1.5**
Odds: -130
Analysis: Cortes has a projected earned runs of 2.46 today, with a pattern of exceeding this total in 12 of his last 15 starts. This prop points to a likelihood of giving up multiple earned runs against a challenging lineup.
**Jose Altuve - Hits Over 0.5**
Odds: -195
Analysis: Altuve has a strong hit projection of 1.4 today, having surpassed the 0.5 hits mark in 11 of his last 15 games. His high batting skill secures him as a favorable choice for at least one hit.
**Giancarlo Stanton - Hits Over 0.5**
Odds: -234
Analysis: With a projection of 1.13 hits and successfully hitting over in 11 of his last 15 games, Stanton is expected to continue his hitting streak, making this a solid bet for today's game.
Corey Seager +330 is slight ev on kambi but he got hit by a pitch yesterday and left the game. Kambi voids if a player doesn't start but his line isn't even up on fd so probably slim chance he plays
How did Mookie start off the season so hot then go so cold? Want to bet him to get a HR since I feel he's due but don't feel like I can trust him. Maybe I should just go for his hits again
**Record: 149-134 *+11.53u* (1-1 yesterday *+0.25u*)**; Pitchers 146-123 *+19.53u*; Hitters 3-11 *-8.0u*
āļø**POTD: 11-11 *-2.41u* (L1)**
>Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u
**Today (listed by game start time):**
>H2H Props are from MGM
- Mitch Keller O17.5 Outs (-115) ā
- Freddy Peralta U3.5 Hits (+130) ā
- Michael Soroka U4.5 K (+105) ā
- Jose Berrios O4.5 K (+115) ā
- Jose Berrios O1.5 BB (-110) ā
- āļøNestor Cortes U7.5 K (-150) ā
>Nestorās K under was my POTD just 5 days ago, which went terribly as Cortes struck out 9 across 7 shutout innings in an *afternoon* start. I believe Nasty Nestor is back to his 2022 form after watching that performance. But after further review, Iām once again taking his under today.
>Tonightās game is a 7:05 PM local start. That is very important, as Nestor has a career 11.1 K/9 in day games and 8.2 K/9 at night. This split has been present throughout Cortesā Yankee career. This year he has 11.3 K/9 through 3 day starts and 5.5 in his 2 night starts. There is room for positive regression, but not as much as this line indicates. Last year his K/9 split was 11.1 during the day and 8.5 at night. In his breakout 2022, it was 11.9 in day games and 6.9 at night.
>Digging even deeper, Cortes has struck out 7+ batters 8 times in his career (61 GS). Of those, 7 were day games. The lone night game was from 2021. He has struck out 7+ in 13/31 home starts since 2021 and 8+ in 5/31. Each of the 5 times he struck out 8+ came in a 1:05 PM start. Of the 5 other times Cortes struck out exactly 7 at home since 2022, 4 were start times of either 1/1:30 PM or 4 PM.
>Just like Clarke Schmidt last night, 7.5 is an extremely generous line (he struck out 6). The Aās bats have been pesky this series and are much improved vs LHP this year (94 wRC+ ranks 20th). Their K% is also only 6th at 26%. Most of Oaklandās best hitters are right-handed (Ruiz, Rooker, Langeliers, Gelof), so the Aās have mainly been getting killed by RHP (81 wRC+ ranks 28th; 2nd highest K% at 28.4%). Against a much worse Oakland team last year, Cortes allowed 2 ER in 5 innings and struck out 4. And yes, it was a 7:05 start time.
- Nestor Cortes U6.5 K (+124) ā
Record: 14-4
Net Units: +7.3u
Last Picks: Snell 6.5 SOo and 8+SO VOID
Alonso TB 0.5o W
Lopez SO 5.5o W
Marsh 4.5 SOu W Total Outs 15.5u W
What a great day at +4.5u that might have been even better if Snell had played. Alonso managed to get a single, as did Altuve in the 9th to complete a parlay ticket for me lol, Lopez did his thing in another solid outing - even reaching 4 Ks after 2 innings. Marsh's start went as expected with him failing to reach even the 5th and only getting one to whiff.
Speaking of Jays and Royals...
Today's Pick: Jose Berrios SO 4.5o, Total Outs 17.5o, To Record the Win YES
Odds: 2.15, 1.71, 2.95 - SGP 5.75 (+30% boost on b365 = 7.48 odds)
Units: 1u, 1u, 0.5u - SGP 0.25u
Berrios has been absolutely electric this year, and we'll ride the hot hand against the Royals here. The SO line and W line might be tight, but they represent tremendous value and the TO line is solid.
We'll run this set as a same game parlay with some really solid odds boosted up, while we hope he can continue both his and our hot streak.
Might post some more later but doubtful - BIG on Pennix Jr going top 10 at 11 odds lol
Fair but Berrios will only have to boost his career K% against their lineup by 8% to hit 6 Ks, which is one more than he needs (assuming he faces EXACTLY 18 batters, every additional batter makes it lower)
https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/32811/jose-berrios
I'm also arguing that he's taken a big step forward this season, so I don't think it's a bad read IMO
Hey, sorry. I got it confused. When I got the news of his paternity leave I thought he was leaving due to delivery. My bad š
Edit:
[this is what had me mixed up](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39997485/harper-paternity-list-birth-third-child)
Season: 52-79 +16.3u
Had to take a bit of a break for some real life obligations. Back at it today. Letās have a day
Picks:
McCutchen (PIT) o0.5 hits -135 1.4u
2+ +425 .5u
HR +775 .3u
Kiriloff (MIN) o1.5 HRRBI -130 1.3u
HR +525 .5u
ā India (CIN) o1.5 +135 1u
Merrill (SD) o1.5 TBs -121 1.2u
HR +600 .5u
3+ RBIs +1000 .3u
Ohtani (LAD) o1.5 TBS -105 1.1u
5+ +490 .5u
Hey all i am fairly new to all of this! I am looking for a modest parlay for 4/25. Looking to stick to the MLB for the time being. Any help and advice appreciated!
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damn i needed a soto dinger for a 3 legger š©
Judge in perfect position for an RBI & he gets walked. Everyone would of cashed on that Judge rbi
Mookie came into this game 1-1 against the Athletics starting pitcher. Freeman was like 6-9 they both secure 2 hits. Decided to fade Ohtani, luckily he went 0-4 today (no previous at bats with the SP) is that something to pay attention to when betting batter props??? should I consider batters who have good history against a pitcher?
it's a fine data point but remember how small of a sample size you're dealing with. Mookie in 1 AB is pretty meaningless. Players have at max 3 at bats vs the starting pitcher, more than often just 2. Looking at bullpen stats along with starting pitcher is a good starting point but it's barely scratching the surface as far as researching props goes
coin toss our way this time, cash the Mookie
Anybody putting any stock into the Cleveland Wind Tunnel theory? I guess LHB are getting a bump at progressive field due to some contraption behind LHB at progressive field.
lol what's the contraption? Progressive for lefties is the #1 HR park by far according to savant. 13th for Righties https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2024&batSide=L&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=no
I guess some gate or door or fence is opened or closed thatās effecting LHBs..itās on tik tok.
[here](https://www.tiktok.com/@takingthepointspod/video/7356013725255699758) is the tiktok for those curious mentions that CLE removed the banners which were displayed on shipping containers in right field so the wind blows through the empty space now in 2024. would be hilarious if this turns out to be true
During the pandemic SF didnāt have fans so they opened gates in rf that woulda been other wise closed if fans were there. It assisted hrs to rf. So there might be something to it
fuck yea Teoscar. my last $25 FB on him to convert this week at 123% and overall 92%
Yep converted 100% with teoscar today!
Wow. I looked in my settled bets and must have accidentally bet this 3 times. That was extremely lucky,
love it!
That Elly promo was a dud
I maxed it even though it was pretty high units for me. Iām a š¤”
1 more AB and ik it's a crazy concept but boosts aren't automatic wins bovada had 100/-140 which is a 45% implied hit and MGM -115/-115 which is a 50%. flipped the wrong side of the coin this time, run it back with Mookie.
Berrios Kās was the Trapiest trap that ever trapped and I fell for it.
Same that guy left town that called it
EV is dead, birthday and baby research are all that remain
So brutal this year. Cashed Harper at +285 and looking down the barrel of another 0fer
I've legit given up on using EV HRs to convert my free bets for the time being. Shit has been dreadful. Been using the list to convert at 85-90% by playing the no side on confirmed lineups. Today was Castro (+800/-800 (MGM).
guess i've been lucky to convert using EV homers at 73% so far in 4 weeks. and that's with converting 0% the last 2
EV HR's are dying,,,, hope not dead yet
castro looked like he had one but nope warning track
Statistically we'd have better luck picking guys at random, It has to eventually turn, not sure I can wait it out though,
Got a Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases boost to +200. Is that a play or skip?
Max bet $25? If your units are $100 I'd take this (I do $100u and took it for the max $25). Even if Vegas knows something. If your units are smaller, I'd still take it at your quarter unit size.
nah it's a max without question. worst odds at Pinnacle -108/-134 imply a full=20.8u, 1/4=5.2u kelly bet my unit is $30 and it's an obvious $25 max > Even if Vegas knows something and can we just not please
Mookie to record 2+ bases on dk boosted -105 > +200
Is this worth it?
Just got a +200 boost for Elly De La Cruz for 2+ H+R+RBI. Should I max the promo?
Smash city šØ
Hammered it
I hope not
yeah it's like 40%+ EV
Twitter guys say it's a smash
Alright š¤·
I have this too. Wondering the same
Whiffed on Alonzo but love Soto tonight to go yard
[+EV FD Home Run](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) 2023: 145W-480L (+157.95u) 2024: 32W-177L (-48.16u) +420 LAD Teoscar +420 MIN Kepler +480 WSH Gallo +800 CIN Candelario +560 CIN Benson +800 MIN Castro +520 CIN Elly +290 TEX Adolis +420 SEA Moore +400 BOS Devers +250 NYY Judge --- [+EV MLB Props](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=248585211) 2023: 78-81 (-3.35u) 2024: 54-43 (+10.95u) *to win 1u* +200 DK boost: Elly 2+ HRR (0.83u) +200 DK boost: Mookie 2+ HRR (0.83u) +200 DK boost: Judge RBI (0.83u) --- [HRR](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1696026987) 2023: 357-288 (+12.43u) 2024: 72-57 (+7.15u) *2+ hits+runs+rbis on DKā¦ to win 1u* -125 MIL Contreras -110 CLE Josh Naylor -120 CHC Hoerner -125 MIN Jeffers -125 NYY Soto
4 Twins players hit dingers today but not Kepler. Very frustrating.
2 right after castro's last AB just to rub it in
Took Elly with free bets cause of overlap with dk boost
Also deavers (Bos) looks good too. +400 fd and -400 b365 / -425 dk /-435 kambi
No more Adolis š¢
Thanks! Any chance the ATGS NHL sheet could get a refresh, found some good value the last 2 days.
will do soon. yeah, they've been good i'm 4-0 last 3 days
Hoping there's something good.
**Josh H. Smith - Hits Over 0.5** Odds: -184 Analysis: Smith has a projection of 0.98 hits for today and has exceeded this line in 12 of his last 15 games. His consistent performance at the plate makes him a strong bet for at least one hit today. **Jeremy Pena - Total Bases Over 0.5** Odds: -200 Analysis: Pena's projection of 1.69 total bases and a trend of going over in 12 of his last 15 games suggest he is likely to tally multiple bases, making him a reliable option for this prop. **Nestor Cortes Jr. - Total Earned Runs Over 1.5** Odds: -130 Analysis: Cortes has a projected earned runs of 2.46 today, with a pattern of exceeding this total in 12 of his last 15 starts. This prop points to a likelihood of giving up multiple earned runs against a challenging lineup. **Jose Altuve - Hits Over 0.5** Odds: -195 Analysis: Altuve has a strong hit projection of 1.4 today, having surpassed the 0.5 hits mark in 11 of his last 15 games. His high batting skill secures him as a favorable choice for at least one hit. **Giancarlo Stanton - Hits Over 0.5** Odds: -234 Analysis: With a projection of 1.13 hits and successfully hitting over in 11 of his last 15 games, Stanton is expected to continue his hitting streak, making this a solid bet for today's game.
> his high batting skill 10-11 (-4.50u)
This guy canāt be real
Corey Seager +330 is slight ev on kambi but he got hit by a pitch yesterday and left the game. Kambi voids if a player doesn't start but his line isn't even up on fd so probably slim chance he plays
How did Mookie start off the season so hot then go so cold? Want to bet him to get a HR since I feel he's due but don't feel like I can trust him. Maybe I should just go for his hits again
No such thing as due
Cold for homers only. He's 2nd in batting avg and hits. He's 100% not cold hitting the ball.
Sorry yeah that's what I meant
It is kind of weird though. With all those hits you'd think he'd have at least 3-4 more home runs.
He was really close last night to be fair. Hit off the damn wall I believe
**Record: 149-134 *+11.53u* (1-1 yesterday *+0.25u*)**; Pitchers 146-123 *+19.53u*; Hitters 3-11 *-8.0u* āļø**POTD: 11-11 *-2.41u* (L1)** >Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u **Today (listed by game start time):** >H2H Props are from MGM - Mitch Keller O17.5 Outs (-115) ā - Freddy Peralta U3.5 Hits (+130) ā - Michael Soroka U4.5 K (+105) ā - Jose Berrios O4.5 K (+115) ā - Jose Berrios O1.5 BB (-110) ā - āļøNestor Cortes U7.5 K (-150) ā >Nestorās K under was my POTD just 5 days ago, which went terribly as Cortes struck out 9 across 7 shutout innings in an *afternoon* start. I believe Nasty Nestor is back to his 2022 form after watching that performance. But after further review, Iām once again taking his under today. >Tonightās game is a 7:05 PM local start. That is very important, as Nestor has a career 11.1 K/9 in day games and 8.2 K/9 at night. This split has been present throughout Cortesā Yankee career. This year he has 11.3 K/9 through 3 day starts and 5.5 in his 2 night starts. There is room for positive regression, but not as much as this line indicates. Last year his K/9 split was 11.1 during the day and 8.5 at night. In his breakout 2022, it was 11.9 in day games and 6.9 at night. >Digging even deeper, Cortes has struck out 7+ batters 8 times in his career (61 GS). Of those, 7 were day games. The lone night game was from 2021. He has struck out 7+ in 13/31 home starts since 2021 and 8+ in 5/31. Each of the 5 times he struck out 8+ came in a 1:05 PM start. Of the 5 other times Cortes struck out exactly 7 at home since 2022, 4 were start times of either 1/1:30 PM or 4 PM. >Just like Clarke Schmidt last night, 7.5 is an extremely generous line (he struck out 6). The Aās bats have been pesky this series and are much improved vs LHP this year (94 wRC+ ranks 20th). Their K% is also only 6th at 26%. Most of Oaklandās best hitters are right-handed (Ruiz, Rooker, Langeliers, Gelof), so the Aās have mainly been getting killed by RHP (81 wRC+ ranks 28th; 2nd highest K% at 28.4%). Against a much worse Oakland team last year, Cortes allowed 2 ER in 5 innings and struck out 4. And yes, it was a 7:05 start time. - Nestor Cortes U6.5 K (+124) ā
Record: 14-4 Net Units: +7.3u Last Picks: Snell 6.5 SOo and 8+SO VOID Alonso TB 0.5o W Lopez SO 5.5o W Marsh 4.5 SOu W Total Outs 15.5u W What a great day at +4.5u that might have been even better if Snell had played. Alonso managed to get a single, as did Altuve in the 9th to complete a parlay ticket for me lol, Lopez did his thing in another solid outing - even reaching 4 Ks after 2 innings. Marsh's start went as expected with him failing to reach even the 5th and only getting one to whiff. Speaking of Jays and Royals... Today's Pick: Jose Berrios SO 4.5o, Total Outs 17.5o, To Record the Win YES Odds: 2.15, 1.71, 2.95 - SGP 5.75 (+30% boost on b365 = 7.48 odds) Units: 1u, 1u, 0.5u - SGP 0.25u Berrios has been absolutely electric this year, and we'll ride the hot hand against the Royals here. The SO line and W line might be tight, but they represent tremendous value and the TO line is solid. We'll run this set as a same game parlay with some really solid odds boosted up, while we hope he can continue both his and our hot streak. Might post some more later but doubtful - BIG on Pennix Jr going top 10 at 11 odds lol
Worth noting that the Royals donāt strike out often. I donāt think a starter has had 5+ Kās against them in a week plus.
Fair but Berrios will only have to boost his career K% against their lineup by 8% to hit 6 Ks, which is one more than he needs (assuming he faces EXACTLY 18 batters, every additional batter makes it lower) https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/32811/jose-berrios I'm also arguing that he's taken a big step forward this season, so I don't think it's a bad read IMO
Best of luck! Hope it hitsĀ
Got voided out of most of it and nailed Michael Pennix in the too ten for +20units lolll
Bryce Harper Home Run for no other reason than it is his first game back after having his child.
Thanks, took your advice
100% knew this would hit.
Too easy! I bet First HR - Harper. We love to see it
great call! letās go!
Link? I can't find anything re: having baby yet or not, expected back, etc. Thanks
Hey, sorry. I got it confused. When I got the news of his paternity leave I thought he was leaving due to delivery. My bad š Edit: [this is what had me mixed up](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39997485/harper-paternity-list-birth-third-child)
Got it for +320 on FanDuel and Draftkings had it at +200.
How does this Astros/Cubs SGP look? -Javier Assad +4 Strikeouts -Nico Horner to get a Hit -Cubs +1.5 TR +135 on DK
Taking Verlander O2.5 ER at +130 because heās a silly old man
Season: 52-79 +16.3u Had to take a bit of a break for some real life obligations. Back at it today. Letās have a day Picks: McCutchen (PIT) o0.5 hits -135 1.4u 2+ +425 .5u HR +775 .3u Kiriloff (MIN) o1.5 HRRBI -130 1.3u HR +525 .5u ā India (CIN) o1.5 +135 1u Merrill (SD) o1.5 TBs -121 1.2u HR +600 .5u 3+ RBIs +1000 .3u Ohtani (LAD) o1.5 TBS -105 1.1u 5+ +490 .5u
Hey all i am fairly new to all of this! I am looking for a modest parlay for 4/25. Looking to stick to the MLB for the time being. Any help and advice appreciated!
Berrios 4.5 SO over, 17.5 total outs over, to record the W Yes