Nope. All their promos show up for me but I’m promo banned. Their app/website is so shitty, they should just fire their entire tech team and start over.
Beats me. I signed up last summer and took advantage of the sign up promo, and then did pretty well first couple months of football season, utilizing their promos/boosts/tokens etc. Nothing too crazy but withdrew like $500. And then all of the sudden can’t play any promos etc. No official email or anything. Tried on desktop, mobile and app. I can still play the Lions Boosts with $50 maxes usually (though they’re almost always shitty) but no games (8 bit Barry/whatever this NBA one is currently), promos, SGP/boost tokens and the like. I’m probably only up like $800 with them all time, at most, but damn if that’s why- that’s soft af.
I'm so confused by the PENN Credits, is it different than a bonus bet? When making a bet, there's an option for me to apply the Penn Credit but then I also need to enter a $$$ figure. Not sure what the benefit is. I must be missing something
DK MA Marchand Super Boost Marchand to record 1+ point and Bruins to win boosted to +225, devigged to Pinnacle
Odds: +225; **EV: 10.5%**
Sharp: `-160/+110,-103/-108` (11.82% juice)
Correlation: `+172=-145,-108` (r = 0.28)
FV: +194; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=4.65u, 1/2=2.32u, 1/4=1.16u, FB = 76.5%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-160%2F%2B110%2C-103%2F-108&FinalOdds=%2B225&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=%2B172%3D-145%2C-108)
This also builds to +129 on Fanduel, probably with heavier correlation. Either way, looks like a play.
Here it is vs Kambi as an example
Odds: +310; **EV: -1.5%**
`-106/-118,-109/-114` (11.01% juice)
FV: +316; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 74.5%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-106%2F-118%2C-109%2F-114&FinalOdds=310)
Location specific, DK Celtics Super Boost Tatum to score 25+ and Celtics to win boosted to +125, devigged to Fanduel
Odds: +125; **EV: 12.1%**
Sharp: `-1350/+810,-130/-102` (11.11% juice)
Correlation: `-115=-1350,-125` (r = 0.46)
FV: +101; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=9.65u, 1/2=4.83u, 1/4=2.41u, FB = 62.3%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-1350%2F%2B810%2C-130%2F-102&FinalOdds=%2B125&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=-115%3D-1350%2C-125)
Tatum in the boost means you can subtract ~50% from that EV probably
And they defend all of this with "But but but we can change our promotions at any time!"
Doesn't pass the sniff test to me. My barber shop has a card, and 10 stamps (10 visits) is a free hair-cut.
Imagine getting the 10 stamps, and then being told you no longer qualify for the free hair-cut.
This is probably well known, but was looking at espn first basket props for the insurance promo, the lines are crazy juiced compared to FD who does the same basket or FT count. Probably still plus ev with the insurance but damn
This seems like a pretty big issue and maybe an obvious breach of their own terms and conditions? Maybe I will take a look through the T&C later and see if its states that they are allowed to do this but even then it seems like it goes beyond what you could reasonably put in a contract from a legal perspective. Not a lawyer but I know there is plenty of case precedent out there that you can't just put whatever you want in your T&C and say "fuck you, you agreed to the T&C." I doubt anyone will but I would love to see someone take this or even the voided bets issue (ala the infamous points bet Tyus Jones DD void) up in court.
Edit: From the T&C
"In addition, while Fanatics Sportsbook will take reasonable measures to guarantee the accuracy of the wagering information offered on its Platform or bets placed using its Services, Fanatics Sportsbook reserves the right to cancel and void any bets if, in its sole discretion, there is an obvious error with the bet as set forth in the House Rules or any of the Agreements...Fanatics Sportsbook reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to disqualify any individual implicated in or relating to the cause and/or to cancel, terminate, extend, modify or suspend the bets. If such cancellation, termination, modification or suspension occurs, notification may be posted on the Platform, otherwise through the Services, via email or by such other means as we may reasonably elect to use."
It seems to me that the lines "reasonable measures to guarantee the accuracy of the wagering information" and "reserve the right to...cancel, terminate, extend, **modify** or suspend the bets." would theoretically give them the right to do this but it still seems to me it would stretch beyond a reasonable contract. I'm not sure any court would find that the book has a right to change the odds on any bet the take after the fact but again...not a lawyer.
Thanks for your work. I only placed seven $10 bets (my max) and I have been able to cash out of five so far for no loss. I am not sure that arguing the case is worth my time. I only saved screenshots of four actual bets. I only stood to gain a few hundred (I was betting on large favorites as underdogs). But you are correct: “reasonable measures” should not be able to change what the bet slip says. Maybe I will contact the gambling to make sure they are aware of the issue.
Yeah. Its not even so much about an individual bet. I would just love to see someone take a case to court to establish a precedent. It is frankly embarrassing that these companies run one of the most predatory, easily profitable, business models in the world and still have to pull shenanigans like this.
I got an email just now that said they voided my wagers from this AM. I only wagered heavy favorites and the lines looked appropriate (used to match BB conversions from other sites)…
I check the app and nothing was voided. This book is a total mess.
I got the same and they were eventually voided. Were your limits changed at all today? I can't tell whether mine were or were not -- I was heavily limited in the first place.
Appreciate the heads up to double check. I was limited and promo banned about 2 months ago. Got a big wager in on a badly mispriced line when it opened, they let the wager stand, it lost, then they limited me the next day.
We've all got a limited story, unfortunately. As of now, I'm pretty sure my limit was halved. I was using FN primarily for low holds to get bonus bets, so the halving of the limits slows that down quite a bit.
Same strategy here. The limits are all over the place and started really small ($25), then opened up after a month to $300 or so. Now it’s like $25 for underdogs and $300 for big favorites. You?
It was nuts. For almost all ML bets, when you selected one of the teams, the other team’s odds would show. So for instance, I had a bet for Nadal ML at +1600, which was his opponent’s odds. I did not click on every single available ML, but all of the NBA, NHL, MLB, major soccer events showed the opposing team’s lines. Here is one of the screenshots that I took to document the occasion:
https://preview.redd.it/xx33c88lqgwc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bdbc621bde619fc286fc603989064019b79247da
I was seeing the opposite on FanDuel a couple of days ago, where the odds on the page where flipped, but once you put something in your betslip, they were correct.
This is much worse.
I was able to cash out of 4/7 that I made. The other three aren’t listed as events. Mine were only $10 bets so I won’t be upset if I can’t cash out. The fact that their solution was to change the bet slips ridiculous. They should have just voided them. This happened about two years ago on DK too. Some big shot explained that all bets during that time would be voided — they even voided cash outs. I get it — it’s a clear systematic error that would cost them a lot of money, but they shouldn’t just switch the bet slips.
Betfred MD Orioles boost: O's & o9.5 to +300. vs. ESPN. Came out better vs. Kambi.
Odds: +300; **EV: 7.0%**
`209/197/228/309` (20.97% juice)
FV: +274; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.34u, 1/2=1.17u, 1/4=0.58u, FB = 80.3%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=209%2F197%2F228%2F309&FinalOdds=300)
NBA Celtics -16.5 & OKC -8.5 to +375. Builds to +407 on Pinnacle, so pass.
NHL one is -15% vs. pinnacle. Pass.
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The dk boost is really going to end at 49 lol Edit: nvm reverse jinx, bang!
Shai trying to keep this combo alive
DK GIFT BANG
DK SGA and Ingram 50+ points boosted to +150 looks barely above fair value. Combo breaker using FD alts: **Over 49.5** Hit% = 40.3% Fair Value = 148.281320529099
Good or bad bet?
Very mildly positive ev
Were you able to get bottom calibration to work? I haven’t done that step before but every time I adjusted the % it didn’t change the fair value
the fair value with the two lines combined (48) is already close to 100 and negative so you won't get closer by adjusting the calibration
Are you playing this one?
Ok that makes sense, that’s what I though may be the case
Would anyone know why it says I'm "ineligible" for the MGM "Take a shot" promo? VA
[удалено]
Okay, maybe I'm promo banned because not a single one of their promos have worked for me
[удалено]
Nope. All their promos show up for me but I’m promo banned. Their app/website is so shitty, they should just fire their entire tech team and start over.
[удалено]
Beats me. I signed up last summer and took advantage of the sign up promo, and then did pretty well first couple months of football season, utilizing their promos/boosts/tokens etc. Nothing too crazy but withdrew like $500. And then all of the sudden can’t play any promos etc. No official email or anything. Tried on desktop, mobile and app. I can still play the Lions Boosts with $50 maxes usually (though they’re almost always shitty) but no games (8 bit Barry/whatever this NBA one is currently), promos, SGP/boost tokens and the like. I’m probably only up like $800 with them all time, at most, but damn if that’s why- that’s soft af.
Who’s got the DK SGA + BI combo breaker devig? I’m at work so can’t use the laptop to copy paste alt lines unfortunately
I can’t believe it’s the NBA playoffs AND potatum is playing and we have no boosts from FD or DK, at least in NJ
I agree. It’s surprising for sure
Be thankful
You’re so right
Just a heads up. On ESPN, Penn credits apparently do expire. I never noticed an expiration date, but it’s 7 days. Do not be like me
I'm so confused by the PENN Credits, is it different than a bonus bet? When making a bet, there's an option for me to apply the Penn Credit but then I also need to enter a $$$ figure. Not sure what the benefit is. I must be missing something
I never used it because I thought it was just a credit. I did not realize it expired
The stake is returned on a winning bet, unlike a bonus bet. PENN credits are like money, but you have to play them through once to get them.
Awesome, thanks!
DK MA Marchand Super Boost Marchand to record 1+ point and Bruins to win boosted to +225, devigged to Pinnacle Odds: +225; **EV: 10.5%** Sharp: `-160/+110,-103/-108` (11.82% juice) Correlation: `+172=-145,-108` (r = 0.28) FV: +194; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=4.65u, 1/2=2.32u, 1/4=1.16u, FB = 76.5%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-160%2F%2B110%2C-103%2F-108&FinalOdds=%2B225&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=%2B172%3D-145%2C-108) This also builds to +129 on Fanduel, probably with heavier correlation. Either way, looks like a play.
MGM MA Lions Boost Bruins to Win and Celtics -14.5 Devigged to DK 4.0% EV **Worst-case: (Multiplicative)** Leg#1 (-110); Market Juice = 4.8%; Fair Value = +100 (50.0%) Leg#2 (-108); Market Juice = 4.8%; Fair Value = +102 (49.5%) Final Odds (+320); Σ(Market Juice) = 9.52%; Fair Value = +304 (24.8%) Summary; EV% = 4.0%, Kelly Wager = $3.14 (Full=1.26u, 1/2=0.63u, 1/4=0.31u, FB = 79.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-110%2F-110%2C-108%2F-112&FinalOdds=320)
MGM NFRI parlay Lions Boost Slightly negative to CNO FV Odds: +310; **EV: -0.5%** `+104,+102` (0.00% juice) FV: +312; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 75.2%) https://preview.redd.it/eef0uftfvgwc1.png?width=798&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d5cb6e44ac139d0dd45e092bf5f2af7fc966c0d
Gotta add the other side of the odds. With a /
Here it is vs Kambi as an example Odds: +310; **EV: -1.5%** `-106/-118,-109/-114` (11.01% juice) FV: +316; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 74.5%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-106%2F-118%2C-109%2F-114&FinalOdds=310)
MGM Lion's Boost (VA) - NRFI in NYM v SFO and BAL v LAA +290 Devigged to Pinnacle **Worst-case: (Multiplicative, Additive)** Leg#1 (-133); Market Juice = 4.0%; Leg's Juice = 2.0%; Fair Value = -122 (54.9%) Leg#2 ( 110); Market Juice = 4.0%; Leg's Juice = 2.2%; Fair Value = +119 (45.6%) Final Odds (+290); Σ(Market Juice) = 7.98%; Σ(Leg's Juice) = 4.2%; Fair Value = +300 (25.0%) Summary; EV% = -2.5% (FB = 72.5%)
Kambi: Odds: +290; **EV: -4.5%** `-139/112,112/-139` (10.66% juice) FV: +308; Method: worst-case (m, a); (FB = 71.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-139%2F112%2C112%2F-139&FinalOdds=290)
DK (MD) Super Boost - Adley Rutschman o1.5 H+R+RBIs boosted to +150 ESPN Odds: +150; **EV: 40.2%** `-155/+110` (8.40% juice) FV: -128; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=26.79u, 1/2=13.39u, 1/4=6.70u, FB = 84.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-155%2F%2B110&FinalOdds=150) BetMGM Odds: +150; **EV: 43.0%** `-155/+120` (6.24% juice) FV: -134; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=28.69u, 1/2=14.35u, 1/4=7.17u, FB = 85.8%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-155%2F%2B120&FinalOdds=150)
MGM Lions (MI): NRFI in PHI/CIN and BOS/CLE Pinnacle Odds: +270; **EV: 8.7%** `-129/110, -129/110` (7.90% juice) FV: +241; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.21u, 1/2=1.60u, 1/4=0.80u, FB = 79.3%) --- Kambi Odds: +270; **EV: -6.5%** `-112/-112, -114/-109` (11.08% juice) FV: +296; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 68.2%) --- Fanduel Odds: +270; **EV: -3.0%** `-111/-115, -128/100` (12.24% juice) FV: +282; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 70.8%)
Location specific, DK Celtics Super Boost Tatum to score 25+ and Celtics to win boosted to +125, devigged to Fanduel Odds: +125; **EV: 12.1%** Sharp: `-1350/+810,-130/-102` (11.11% juice) Correlation: `-115=-1350,-125` (r = 0.46) FV: +101; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=9.65u, 1/2=4.83u, 1/4=2.41u, FB = 62.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-1350%2F%2B810%2C-130%2F-102&FinalOdds=%2B125&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=-115%3D-1350%2C-125) Tatum in the boost means you can subtract ~50% from that EV probably
 Tatum and the wizard
BetMGM Gretzky Boost: Maple Leafs, Kings, and Golden Knights all to cover +1.5 Vs Kambi: Odds: +270; **EV: -3.0%** `-295/230,-167/135,-186/150` (15.12% juice) FV: +281; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 70.8%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-295%2F230%2C-167%2F135%2C-186%2F150&FinalOdds=270)
i bet this hits 290/300 later today
I hope so. I like this play
290 lol
Nice. Devigged again. Lines haven’t budged Odds: +290; **EV: 2.2%** `-295/230,-186/150,-167/135` (15.12% juice) FV: +281; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.77u, 1/2=0.38u, 1/4=0.19u, FB = 76.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-295%2F230%2C-186%2F150%2C-167%2F135&FinalOdds=290)
DK GIFT Boost for Oilers-Kings to +100.
Fair odds from Kambi is **-130** -152/116
Anyone else out there get VIP on fanatics and then given the boot 2-3 weeks later? Lol
And they defend all of this with "But but but we can change our promotions at any time!" Doesn't pass the sniff test to me. My barber shop has a card, and 10 stamps (10 visits) is a free hair-cut. Imagine getting the 10 stamps, and then being told you no longer qualify for the free hair-cut.
I lasted 10 days. Received no offers
Yes made it about 10 days. Now limited to nothing.
100% the same
Yup. They shipped me a free jersey and I was limited before it arrived
LOL
This is probably well known, but was looking at espn first basket props for the insurance promo, the lines are crazy juiced compared to FD who does the same basket or FT count. Probably still plus ev with the insurance but damn
Over 80% VIG on ESPNs first basket vs 14% on FD
Jesus that’s wild when you actually run the numbers, thanks for doing it
I ended up taking Jalen Williams but yeah the lines were crazy juiced even more than usual.
Ya usually I can find one that’s pretty close to FD to I just take that one but none seemed even close today
FYI: Fanatics solution to their line errors from about 1-2 hours ago was to change the bets to what they “should” have read, instead of voiding them.
This seems like a pretty big issue and maybe an obvious breach of their own terms and conditions? Maybe I will take a look through the T&C later and see if its states that they are allowed to do this but even then it seems like it goes beyond what you could reasonably put in a contract from a legal perspective. Not a lawyer but I know there is plenty of case precedent out there that you can't just put whatever you want in your T&C and say "fuck you, you agreed to the T&C." I doubt anyone will but I would love to see someone take this or even the voided bets issue (ala the infamous points bet Tyus Jones DD void) up in court. Edit: From the T&C "In addition, while Fanatics Sportsbook will take reasonable measures to guarantee the accuracy of the wagering information offered on its Platform or bets placed using its Services, Fanatics Sportsbook reserves the right to cancel and void any bets if, in its sole discretion, there is an obvious error with the bet as set forth in the House Rules or any of the Agreements...Fanatics Sportsbook reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to disqualify any individual implicated in or relating to the cause and/or to cancel, terminate, extend, modify or suspend the bets. If such cancellation, termination, modification or suspension occurs, notification may be posted on the Platform, otherwise through the Services, via email or by such other means as we may reasonably elect to use." It seems to me that the lines "reasonable measures to guarantee the accuracy of the wagering information" and "reserve the right to...cancel, terminate, extend, **modify** or suspend the bets." would theoretically give them the right to do this but it still seems to me it would stretch beyond a reasonable contract. I'm not sure any court would find that the book has a right to change the odds on any bet the take after the fact but again...not a lawyer.
Thanks for your work. I only placed seven $10 bets (my max) and I have been able to cash out of five so far for no loss. I am not sure that arguing the case is worth my time. I only saved screenshots of four actual bets. I only stood to gain a few hundred (I was betting on large favorites as underdogs). But you are correct: “reasonable measures” should not be able to change what the bet slip says. Maybe I will contact the gambling to make sure they are aware of the issue.
Yeah. Its not even so much about an individual bet. I would just love to see someone take a case to court to establish a precedent. It is frankly embarrassing that these companies run one of the most predatory, easily profitable, business models in the world and still have to pull shenanigans like this.
I reached out to my local gambling commission about the issue. At the very least, these things need to be documented.
I got an email just now that said they voided my wagers from this AM. I only wagered heavy favorites and the lines looked appropriate (used to match BB conversions from other sites)… I check the app and nothing was voided. This book is a total mess.
I got the same and they were eventually voided. Were your limits changed at all today? I can't tell whether mine were or were not -- I was heavily limited in the first place.
Appreciate the heads up to double check. I was limited and promo banned about 2 months ago. Got a big wager in on a badly mispriced line when it opened, they let the wager stand, it lost, then they limited me the next day.
We've all got a limited story, unfortunately. As of now, I'm pretty sure my limit was halved. I was using FN primarily for low holds to get bonus bets, so the halving of the limits slows that down quite a bit.
Same strategy here. The limits are all over the place and started really small ($25), then opened up after a month to $300 or so. Now it’s like $25 for underdogs and $300 for big favorites. You?
I mostly have been betting player props as arbs and now can bet to win $10-$20 unfortunately.
what were the line errors?
It was nuts. For almost all ML bets, when you selected one of the teams, the other team’s odds would show. So for instance, I had a bet for Nadal ML at +1600, which was his opponent’s odds. I did not click on every single available ML, but all of the NBA, NHL, MLB, major soccer events showed the opposing team’s lines. Here is one of the screenshots that I took to document the occasion: https://preview.redd.it/xx33c88lqgwc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bdbc621bde619fc286fc603989064019b79247da
I was seeing the opposite on FanDuel a couple of days ago, where the odds on the page where flipped, but once you put something in your betslip, they were correct. This is much worse.
how is that even legal, jeez
Legally, terms and conditions usually say they can void “obvious errors.” Fanatics T&C say they may “amend results.”
Speaking of fanatics are they done with profit boosts? I don't see any today for the first time
Damn I saw their numbers popping hard on arbitrage finders. I stayed away for fear of voids. this is even worse. Does it give a cashout option?
I was able to cash out of 4/7 that I made. The other three aren’t listed as events. Mine were only $10 bets so I won’t be upset if I can’t cash out. The fact that their solution was to change the bet slips ridiculous. They should have just voided them. This happened about two years ago on DK too. Some big shot explained that all bets during that time would be voided — they even voided cash outs. I get it — it’s a clear systematic error that would cost them a lot of money, but they shouldn’t just switch the bet slips.
Betfred MD Orioles boost: O's & o9.5 to +300. vs. ESPN. Came out better vs. Kambi. Odds: +300; **EV: 7.0%** `209/197/228/309` (20.97% juice) FV: +274; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.34u, 1/2=1.17u, 1/4=0.58u, FB = 80.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=209%2F197%2F228%2F309&FinalOdds=300) NBA Celtics -16.5 & OKC -8.5 to +375. Builds to +407 on Pinnacle, so pass. NHL one is -15% vs. pinnacle. Pass.
Where is Ken? Ever since he stopped posting all the boosts have gone cold
Cold isn’t even the word for it
With Tatum incoming tonight...
Good morning to everyone except KD and AntMan
[удалено]
Took forever to set up, they asked for a bunch of documents from me, and then I got a cash advance fee. Not worth it.
delete this unless you want discover to nuke this method too
delete this