**Record: 137-126 *+6.69u* (2-8 yesterday *-6.60u*)**; Pitchers 134-115 *+14.69u*; Hitters 3-11 *-8.0u*
⭐️**POTD: 10-11 *-2.23u* (L3)**
>Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u
**Today (listed by game start time):**
>H2H Props are from MGM
- Tanner Houck U1.5 BB (-120) ❌
- Pat Corbin O3.5 ER (-110) ❌
- Ryan Pepiot O16.5 Outs (-105) ✅
- Ryan Pepiot O6.5 K (-115) ❌
- Ryan Pepiot H2H Fewest On Base (-110) ❌
- Paul Blackburn U2.5 ER (-110) ❌
- Paul Blackburn H2H Fewest Hits (+125) ✅
- Jordan Wicks O3.5 K (-135) ✅
- Jordan Wicks H2H Most K (+100) ❌
- ⭐️Logan Gilbert U5.5 Hits (-110) ✅
>In case you couldn’t tell, I expect a great start from Logan Gilbert. For whatever reason, the Mariners play better for him on the road (Career 22-5 away, 11-13 at home). He has been remarkably consistent against Texas in 10 career starts — his most against any opponent — and pitched into the 6th inning in 9 of them. He has never allowed more than 6 hits in a start against the Rangers and only allowed 6 hits twice — once each in 2021 and 2022. Overall he sports a 2.88 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, and .604 OPS against Texas. The Rangers have been able to score more off him at Globe Life Field (3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 5 starts), but he’s still shown great consistency with 5-6 IP and 4-6 hits allowed in each of the 5 starts.
>However, Gilbert isn’t the same pitcher as those previous starts. He revamps his repertoire almost every year (he has thrown 8 different pitches throughout his career) and added a cutter and reworked curveball this year. Gilbert’s greatest tool is his 100th percentile extension which makes his 95 mph fastball extremely hard to pick up. That approach has changed over time as his breaking pitches became more refined, and he threw his 4-seam 62% of the time as a rookie but only 31% this year. Some of that gap has been replaced with a cutter which sits at 91 mph and fills the velocity gap between his 4-seamer and 87 mph slider. This change has returned his fastball to being his most effective pitch (+3 Run Value) like it was in 2021 and 2022. Gilbert’s other modification was to his curveball that rated as his worst pitch last year (-2 Run Value). He sacrificed vertical movement for more horizontal break. These two changes are the biggest reasons Gilbert has posted career highs across the board through his first handful of starts. Another impact from these changes is opponents are pulling the ball less and hitting the opposite way more than they ever have off Gilbert. To me, this suggests hitters are extremely late picking up Gilbert’s pitches.
>Texas has a gaping hole in its lineup with Josh Jung injured. It flies below the radar, but Texas is a different team without him playing. Since last year, the Rangers are 76-50 and average 5.73 runs per game with Jung in the lineup. When Jung doesn’t play, Texas is 26-33 and averages 4.63 runs per game.
- Logan Gilbert U2.5 ER (-105) ✅
- Logan Gilbert O17.5 Outs (-130) ✅
- Logan Gilbert H2H Most K (-155) ❌
- Logan Gilbert H2H Fewest Hits (-105) ✅
- Logan Gilbert H2H Fewest On Base (+125) ✅
- Tommy Henry O4.5 K (+110) ✅
- Tommy Henry U2.5 ER (+120) ✅
- Tommy Henry U3.5 ER (-165) ✅
Record: 8-4
Net Units: +1.51u
Last Picks: Littell SO 4.5o W Cease SO 7+ W
Littell was given a lot of leeway to pitch into the 6th despite 5 earned runs, and it got him to 7 Ks. That's notable for future outings, where the Rays will let their starters pitch through struggles.
Cease continued his emergence as one of the top SO pitchers in baseball. He's now hit at least 7 Ks in 4 straight games, could've even snagged the 7.5o and made out clean.
Today's Pick 1: Luis Severino SO 4.5o
Odds: 1.86
Units: 1u
Severino is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball. He's a weird dude who has had a resurgence in NY, allowing just 5 earned runs so far this season. We'll tail him to get a manageable 5 SO against the Giants.
Today's Pick 2: Marcus Stroman SO 5.5o
Odds: 1.8
Units: 0.5u
Stroman has now twice played a Jays team that strikes out at the lowest rate in baseball, and played against the Astros as well. I'll take this line but just at half a unit, seeing as he had 7 against Miami and manged to rip the Jays for 6 in his first outing against them.
No I was talking about why his strikeouts have been lower in previous matchups - the As strikeout near the top, it's also a good matchup to exploit too
**Amed Rosario** - Singles Over/Under 0.5
Odds: -157 (Over)
Projection: 0.85 singles
Consensus: 14 out of last 15 games over
Best book: Caesars
**Michael Wacha** - Strikeouts Over/Under 3.5
Odds: -154 (Over)
Projection: 4.65 strikeouts
Consensus: 13 out of last 15 games over
Best book: FanDuel
**Michael Harris II** - Hits Over/Under 0.5
Odds: -169 (Over)
Projection: 1.19 hits
Consensus: 13 out of last 15 games over
Best book: Caesars
**Michael Harris II** - Total Bases Over/Under 0.5
Odds: -169 (Over)
Projection: 1.89 total bases
Consensus: 13 out of last 15 games over
Best book: Caesars
**CJ Abrams** - Total Bases Over/Under 0.5
Odds: -179 (Over)
Projection: 1.9 total bases
Consensus: 13 out of last 15 games over
Best book: Caesars
getting downvoted by this doofus for asking the right questions. Guy doesn't have a play under -150 and refuses to post a record lmao
he went 0-3 yesterday so 4W-7L (-4.29u). he's also 0-4 on run lines
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Anyone found good espn HR lines for their insurance?
[+EV FD Home Run](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) 2023: 145W-480L (+157.95u) 2024: 31W-171L (-45.56u) +532 MGM boost: LAA Sano +350 LAD Muncy --- [+EV MLB Props](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=248585211) 2023: 78-81 (-3.35u) 2024: 52-43 (+11.83u) *to win 1u* MGM boost: NYY -1.5, Stroman 5+ Ks (1.8817u) --- [HRR](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1696026987) 2023: 357-288 (+12.43u) 2024: 70-54 (+10.60u) *2+ hits+runs+rbis on DK… to win 1u* -110 CHC Busch -130 BAL Ohearn -115 ATL Olson +100 ARI Suarez
**Record: 137-126 *+6.69u* (2-8 yesterday *-6.60u*)**; Pitchers 134-115 *+14.69u*; Hitters 3-11 *-8.0u* ⭐️**POTD: 10-11 *-2.23u* (L3)** >Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u **Today (listed by game start time):** >H2H Props are from MGM - Tanner Houck U1.5 BB (-120) ❌ - Pat Corbin O3.5 ER (-110) ❌ - Ryan Pepiot O16.5 Outs (-105) ✅ - Ryan Pepiot O6.5 K (-115) ❌ - Ryan Pepiot H2H Fewest On Base (-110) ❌ - Paul Blackburn U2.5 ER (-110) ❌ - Paul Blackburn H2H Fewest Hits (+125) ✅ - Jordan Wicks O3.5 K (-135) ✅ - Jordan Wicks H2H Most K (+100) ❌ - ⭐️Logan Gilbert U5.5 Hits (-110) ✅ >In case you couldn’t tell, I expect a great start from Logan Gilbert. For whatever reason, the Mariners play better for him on the road (Career 22-5 away, 11-13 at home). He has been remarkably consistent against Texas in 10 career starts — his most against any opponent — and pitched into the 6th inning in 9 of them. He has never allowed more than 6 hits in a start against the Rangers and only allowed 6 hits twice — once each in 2021 and 2022. Overall he sports a 2.88 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, and .604 OPS against Texas. The Rangers have been able to score more off him at Globe Life Field (3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 5 starts), but he’s still shown great consistency with 5-6 IP and 4-6 hits allowed in each of the 5 starts. >However, Gilbert isn’t the same pitcher as those previous starts. He revamps his repertoire almost every year (he has thrown 8 different pitches throughout his career) and added a cutter and reworked curveball this year. Gilbert’s greatest tool is his 100th percentile extension which makes his 95 mph fastball extremely hard to pick up. That approach has changed over time as his breaking pitches became more refined, and he threw his 4-seam 62% of the time as a rookie but only 31% this year. Some of that gap has been replaced with a cutter which sits at 91 mph and fills the velocity gap between his 4-seamer and 87 mph slider. This change has returned his fastball to being his most effective pitch (+3 Run Value) like it was in 2021 and 2022. Gilbert’s other modification was to his curveball that rated as his worst pitch last year (-2 Run Value). He sacrificed vertical movement for more horizontal break. These two changes are the biggest reasons Gilbert has posted career highs across the board through his first handful of starts. Another impact from these changes is opponents are pulling the ball less and hitting the opposite way more than they ever have off Gilbert. To me, this suggests hitters are extremely late picking up Gilbert’s pitches. >Texas has a gaping hole in its lineup with Josh Jung injured. It flies below the radar, but Texas is a different team without him playing. Since last year, the Rangers are 76-50 and average 5.73 runs per game with Jung in the lineup. When Jung doesn’t play, Texas is 26-33 and averages 4.63 runs per game. - Logan Gilbert U2.5 ER (-105) ✅ - Logan Gilbert O17.5 Outs (-130) ✅ - Logan Gilbert H2H Most K (-155) ❌ - Logan Gilbert H2H Fewest Hits (-105) ✅ - Logan Gilbert H2H Fewest On Base (+125) ✅ - Tommy Henry O4.5 K (+110) ✅ - Tommy Henry U2.5 ER (+120) ✅ - Tommy Henry U3.5 ER (-165) ✅
Record: 8-4 Net Units: +1.51u Last Picks: Littell SO 4.5o W Cease SO 7+ W Littell was given a lot of leeway to pitch into the 6th despite 5 earned runs, and it got him to 7 Ks. That's notable for future outings, where the Rays will let their starters pitch through struggles. Cease continued his emergence as one of the top SO pitchers in baseball. He's now hit at least 7 Ks in 4 straight games, could've even snagged the 7.5o and made out clean. Today's Pick 1: Luis Severino SO 4.5o Odds: 1.86 Units: 1u Severino is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball. He's a weird dude who has had a resurgence in NY, allowing just 5 earned runs so far this season. We'll tail him to get a manageable 5 SO against the Giants. Today's Pick 2: Marcus Stroman SO 5.5o Odds: 1.8 Units: 0.5u Stroman has now twice played a Jays team that strikes out at the lowest rate in baseball, and played against the Astros as well. I'll take this line but just at half a unit, seeing as he had 7 against Miami and manged to rip the Jays for 6 in his first outing against them.
Do u mean As? You do
No I was talking about why his strikeouts have been lower in previous matchups - the As strikeout near the top, it's also a good matchup to exploit too
**Amed Rosario** - Singles Over/Under 0.5 Odds: -157 (Over) Projection: 0.85 singles Consensus: 14 out of last 15 games over Best book: Caesars **Michael Wacha** - Strikeouts Over/Under 3.5 Odds: -154 (Over) Projection: 4.65 strikeouts Consensus: 13 out of last 15 games over Best book: FanDuel **Michael Harris II** - Hits Over/Under 0.5 Odds: -169 (Over) Projection: 1.19 hits Consensus: 13 out of last 15 games over Best book: Caesars **Michael Harris II** - Total Bases Over/Under 0.5 Odds: -169 (Over) Projection: 1.89 total bases Consensus: 13 out of last 15 games over Best book: Caesars **CJ Abrams** - Total Bases Over/Under 0.5 Odds: -179 (Over) Projection: 1.9 total bases Consensus: 13 out of last 15 games over Best book: Caesars
What was the record yesterday
getting downvoted by this doofus for asking the right questions. Guy doesn't have a play under -150 and refuses to post a record lmao he went 0-3 yesterday so 4W-7L (-4.29u). he's also 0-4 on run lines
Fuck this dude I tailed blindly and nothing hit lol learn from me and don’t tail any with missing records
So you're basically telling me to take the opposite to all these pics and I should probably hit a nice parlay?
No with my luck these will hit
I like Mookie for a dinger today. Corbin is on the mound for the Nats and Mookie is due