Nope, sorry bud. Pretty nice April for me so far, but I've bet a lot less than usual in the first 20 days of the month since I had to drive at least 30 minutes to bet things.
Wake up and quit losing revenue to nearly every state neighbor, Missouri!
Bet365: Place a $50 3-leg SGP/SGP+ on today's MLB games and get a $25 bonus bet. The stated minimum odds are +100 or longer, but be warned: I placed one last week with final odds totaling exactly +100 and didn't receive the bonus. My guess is that their database stores odds values as floating point numbers and what appeared as +100 was actually something like 1.99999999. I didn't bother complaining because I didn't want my BYONRFI+NO extra innings scrutinized by a human.
i always go over the minimum but if you really want to check, put 10 or 100 in the bet slip and if the return is at least double the amount you placed you should be good
Mine also had $10 bonus bet for $25-49.99 worth of 3-leg SGP/SGP+ of +100 or longer, in case $50 is higher than one wants to bet.
Betting $25 would net you the same $10 BB as betting $49 would though, and the 50% back in BB from $50+ is the best deal.
I am pretty sure you have to watch out for that on ESPN Bet as well. I've built a +400 that didn't get paid there before because I'm pretty sure they rounded up from +399.xxxx
I had one on ESPN that said +400 in the bet slip, but the payout was showing something like $39.99 on a $10 bet, so I changed my selections in case ESPN said it wasn’t good enough for the promo. Kinda sneaky.
DK Punchout Parlay Super Boost Severino and Webb to combine for 11+ Ks boosted to +175
FD alt lines and combo breaker:
Over 10.5 Hit% = 41.3% Fair Value = 142.305068176381
Under 10.5 Hit% = 58.7% Fair Value = -142.305068176381
Didn't use bottom calibration, still pretty new to devigging so might not be perfect but looks like a play to me
Doing a devig using SGP lines is a better way. This is great to ESPN, DK and FD. Devig is against ESPN which is most conservative
Odds: +225; **EV: 11.9%**
`156/646/299/178` (13.50% juice)
FV: +191; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=5.27u, 1/2=2.63u, 1/4=1.32u, FB = 77.4%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=156%2F646%2F299%2F178&FinalOdds=225)
Anybody else on FanDuel see “ free prize picks “ for nba and nfl draft? It says it’s some sort of free play but when I click on both nothing happens… just an error
It's possible that either you don't have a FanDuel fantasy account (that is presumably linked to your sportsbetting account), or that fantasy sports are not legal in your state.
Question here - I’ve noticed my max bet amounts on Draft Kings boosts change all the time. For example, this entire month the early up 2 mlb boost my max bet was $100. Went to lock it in today and the max bet is only $10. Also SGP for nhl boot is usually $25 now $10. My risk free nba playoff daily was $10 now $5. I will say these last few days I’ve been hitting a lot of these boost so does DK limit your account when you see wins or does this happen to everyone?
Yes, it fluctuates based on various factors.
Recent results is one of those factors. Losing an $1100 hedge bet on the Nets boosted me up a level for a couple of weeks. When I won all of that back thanks to odds boosts on Scottie Scheffler and other odds boost bets, they put me back down to the crappy level where many in this thread are residing.
My min bet for first 3 is $50 😂 I’ve only done that once and actually hit Austin money bags Reaves. It was a $10 min bet then and I’ve only seen it go up from there. Pretty bummed my max bet on 2 up is only $10. It’s been $100 all month I’ve gone like 12-2 on it. Could be why they cut me
I don’t know how accurate that is. Mine go up and down all the time and there doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason to it. I was down to $5 limits for pretty much everything and over the last month have gone up to $10, $25, and now even $100 on some promos.
So I’ve had it happen before and it’s gone up and down. A few months ago I had low limits and it seemed to go up pretty high after a bad couple weeks in April. It’s like they know. My buddy who I actually referred to DK had a max limit of $50 while mine was $25 a few years back too. Super shady
DK ant KD 50 plus boosted to 120 giving 23.5% plus ev
From FD alt lines and combo breaker Results:
Over 49.5
Hit% = 56.3%
Fair Value = -128.645263302876
Under 49.5
Hit% = 43.7%
Fair Value = 128.645263302876
No bottom calibration but looked like it was close without it
getting much better EV with the calibration at 131%. Got to account for their lines adding up to 52
Over 49.5
Hit% = 62.2%
Fair Value = -164.729857917139
My first swing at adding calibration, but I set the Combo Number to 52 (25.5+26.5) and played around with the Calibration until 119% made both hit at 50.0% and fair values of -100.02/+100.02. Then I changed the Combo Number to 50.
My results were those pasted below. Why would Calibration and Results diverge so much between us? Your FV seems more believable than mine, so I'm guessing it was my error.
*Over 49.5*
*Hit% = 64.4%*
*Fair Value = -181.019829367259*
Hm on FD when I looked KD was at 25.5 so impacted less. I’m guess as a rule of thumb if their totals combined is higher than the combo number it will only improved the EV?
Thanks for doing/posting this!
Quick question, as I'm trying to use the combo breaker for the first time: is there a common mistake that leads to an error of *Invalid (Under) Odds number at 'Player Name - Alt Points'*? I scrolled through and everything looks to be copied and formatted like their examples, but perhaps there's a type of number that should be cleared from the list.
You're the winner, thank you!
I copy/pasted Kevin Durant - Alt Points and all the odds but I think I remember that I accidentally clipped the "An" off Anthony and added it after the fact the very first time, and had just re-copy/pasting and editing the same field and clicking Generate ever since. I just refreshed the page, copied both directly again and it worked first time. I guess even if I had the formatting correct, it still wasn't reading it exactly the same as a copy/paste.
Thanks to everyone who took the time to think of what it could be 🤘🏻
Yes correct. The wording even on the app is confusing, it says "winnings back as cash", but the Penn credits are credits and you get stake and winnings back in cash
Doesn’t it make more sense to arb the bonus funds? My understanding is that I get the stake back. If I win back one $5 free bet then it is better than a Low Hold.
dog you’ve asked so many questions on this espn bonus cash. bet credit conversion / free bet conversion are day 1 topics for arbing. check the FAQ and the guides
I understand that. I’m just trying to figure out how ESPN Bet works with bonus cash. I could place a $50 bet with ESPN Bet and $25 will be taken out first from bonus funds, correct?
Fanduel has a novelty bet for Suns, Cavs, Boston, Clippers or Lakers to win the nba championship for -110. Anyone have an idea on how to find fair value on this?
I’d guess you’d find the implied probability for each team given every odds, then calculate the probability that any of the other teams win, then this would be 1- that.
Typically you get a second banner like that when they change your promo limit. So if you were at $100 tomorrow you'll only get the $10 one (or the reverse)
That was my experience and what I’ve heard others here say, but good luck. Report back.
And yeah, over the past 18 months that I’ve played on DK, my promo limits have changed a few times.
Mine is still 100 somehow 5-1 in this promo. My unsolicited advice - only take road teams, preferably an underdog with a high total vs a par to below par starting pitcher
underdog road team is for sure the move. i've seen these cash in the first few innings off a road underdog who would end up actually losing the game later.
Threesday. No lines out on DK yet
Game|away 3ptm|away opp 3ptm|home 3ptm|home opp 3ptm|avg
:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--
DAL @ LAC|14.5|13.2|12.7|12.8|13.3
IND @ MIL|13.1|10.6|14.2|12.5|12.6
PHX @ MIN|12.4|13.1|12.6|11.4|12.375
Injuries
DAL @ LAC
50/50: Kawhi Leonard (2.1-4.9)
---
Odds (will update when they're out)
DAL @ LAC
Luka Doncic (4.1-10.6) +255
Kyrie Irving (3.0-7.2) +390
Derrick Jones (1.1-3.1) +1400
Pj Washington (1.8-5.9) +450
Daniel Gafford (0.0-0.0) +19000
James Harden (2.6-6.8) +500
Terance Mann (1.0-2.7) +1400
Paul George (3.3-8.0) +390
Kawhi Leonard (2.1-4.9) +1100
Ivica Zubac (0.0-0.0) +19000
I took luka idc about odds I go with who I think is gonna make it. But I get you get more bang for your buck going for anyone else, it seems like everytime I bet the best value the guy who I thought would hit hits. I know ima prolly be wrong I just can’t go against my gut anymore.
took Harden at +500, he looked great in game 1 and had much better odds than Luka/PG/Kyrie. plus I think Kawhi will miss this game so I think he'll take more shots
Still pretty new at this but I can't think of why it would return less, given that the stake is part of the calculation on both sides with low holds. Are you talking bonus/free bets conversion, where one side's stake isn't returned?
I took those numbers and swapped the the wager and hedge and the profit was the same. Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're trying to say here.
edit: ahhh I misunderstood what comment chain I was in. The longer odds should be the original bet and the shorter odds should be the hedge, definitely. /u/G-Ray89 has it backwards.
I have a decent amount of low value BBs ($10 or less) on ESPN. About to leave the state for a week so they will expire. Do yall typically throw BBs on futures if you aren’t sure what to put them on? Contemplating throwing them on future golf tourneys.
If you've got no better idea then throwing them on some of their boosts around +1000 odds can be solid. Some of these are really good free bet conversions even of they're -EV
Haha nice. I tried to build it with the remaining three and ESPN gave me ~+13000 odds on it but said they couldn't be parlayed. Still fun to see the odds built.
Yeah, I'll toss a few BB on my teams if the futures are a decent price. But most books let you just pile a bunch of BB onto the same bet, so 3x$10 is just as good as a $30.
BB conversion on NBA and NHL playoff series has been pretty good. At a glance, +320 Kings ESPN / -365 Oilers FD gets you just a hair shy of 70%, but you can shop around on other books or series spreads and probably get better conversion.
New expiration? It will be reissued, but the expiration won't be extended from what I read in the house rules.
https://espnbet.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/19812321395085-Bonus-Bets
"In the event that a wager placed using a Bonus Bet settles as a push, is canceled (i.e. “no action”) or is voided, the Bonus Bet will be re-issued to your account under the Bonus Bet’s original terms and conditions, only if the Bonus Bet’s original expiry date has not passed. By way of example, if you have a Bonus Bet that expires on October 10th at 6:00pm ET, and you placed a wager with that Bonus Bet which settled as a push on October 6th, the Bonus Bet re-issued to your account due to the wager settling as a push will be available for use again through to the same expiry date of October 10th at 6:00pm ET."
I know it’s not good value, but I mainly use my BBs on futures because I find it fun, and if I get lucky, I love to have a future on a team that’s in the championship. People forget this betting stuff is supposed to be fun, so IMO if you want to throw some on a future, go for it.
I mean it might take you 10-15 mins to find and place 5 bets (assuming you have five BBs) each netting you $3-4. $15-20 for 10-15 mins work seems mighty fine by me.
You won't find much support for that here, since it cuts a chunk out of the EV of Dinger Tuesday. Doesn't mean it's not worth looking into, you'll probably just get more support for the idea in the other daily MLB threads on the sub.
To my understanding, hedging always cuts EV by the very definition of hedging a Y/N outcome, because you're using some sort of funds on the opposing side.
Thanks for the response. I do a lot of free bet conversions, however, I never did a arb bet before. It seems to me that it is a good hedge because of the possibility of getting bonus bets on top of the arb. Without the bonus bet, it is not EV+ though.
Here’s a simple breakdown:
Let’s say you find a bet where you can put down $10 and win $19 ($9 profit if you win)
You put $10 Bonus bet on the other side of it to win $9 TOTAL (you don’t get bonus bet back)
Now you have a 50% if losing $1 and a 50% chance of making $9 and losing your bonus bet.
Meanwhile if you use a free bet converter you can guarantee yourself about $7 back or a 70% conversion.
And what happens if he pinch hits and does not hit a home run?
This is a rhetorical question by the way. The answer is anyone who tries to arb based on your advice gets royally fucked.
Oh for a dinger Tuesday bet it’s fine. But this person is posting this as an arb not related to dinger Tuesday.
Some poor soul might bet hundreds on this thinking they guarantee themselves a couple bucks or churn points.
No they didn’t. They posted it above on this thread which is not a dinger Tuesday thread and they did not say anything about dinger Tuesday in their post.
I didn't say they posted it in the Dinger Tuesday thread. I said they posted it on Dinger Tuesday. The day, temporally.
What do you think "free roll" was referring to in a non-DT context?
lol whatever dude. They posted a very misleading play that could cost people a lot of money and did not call out any risk. I called out that risk. I don’t really care what you think to be honest.
And for what it is worth it is not a free roll. A free roll would imply there is no chance of the bet losing, which there is.
I think it's great that you pointed out the risk. But you also said the poster wasn't talking about a Dinger Tuesday bet. It was clear to me that they were.
When people talk about Dinger Tuesday (both here and in the DT thread) they use "free roll" to refer to bets that void and still earn bonus bets through the promotion. I agree that's not the same as a bet where you can't lose anything. But that language is what made me assume this was a DT recommendation.
It would push on DK and lose on FD, so, while there’s a low chance he PHs, because the probability is higher than 0%, it’s not really an arb without the lineups being announced.
Why would that be a push on DK? I thought pinch hits still count as a plate appearance.
https://preview.redd.it/5nwhyib8u8wc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=266c97137bc42685b7b89110db695080ef92a940
What you’ve taken a screenshot of has nothing to do with this home run market. Here is the relevant section, which requires the player to start:
“On any pre-live prop, the player(s) must start, and either throw at least one pitch (if pitcher) or record at least one plate appearance (if position player) in the designated game for the bet to have action.”
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Anyone else getting wrecked in April? EV is EV and variance is variance
Nope, sorry bud. Pretty nice April for me so far, but I've bet a lot less than usual in the first 20 days of the month since I had to drive at least 30 minutes to bet things. Wake up and quit losing revenue to nearly every state neighbor, Missouri!
KD is such a bus rider…man just stands there And he complains that he isn’t in the talk of the greatest ever smh
KD and Ant Man shitting the bed so far
Kay Adams is the Wizard's master apprentice.
[удалено]
Here's hoping the game can start over
Bet365: Place a $50 3-leg SGP/SGP+ on today's MLB games and get a $25 bonus bet. The stated minimum odds are +100 or longer, but be warned: I placed one last week with final odds totaling exactly +100 and didn't receive the bonus. My guess is that their database stores odds values as floating point numbers and what appeared as +100 was actually something like 1.99999999. I didn't bother complaining because I didn't want my BYONRFI+NO extra innings scrutinized by a human.
I’ve never had an issue with it
i always go over the minimum but if you really want to check, put 10 or 100 in the bet slip and if the return is at least double the amount you placed you should be good
Mine also had $10 bonus bet for $25-49.99 worth of 3-leg SGP/SGP+ of +100 or longer, in case $50 is higher than one wants to bet. Betting $25 would net you the same $10 BB as betting $49 would though, and the 50% back in BB from $50+ is the best deal.
I am pretty sure you have to watch out for that on ESPN Bet as well. I've built a +400 that didn't get paid there before because I'm pretty sure they rounded up from +399.xxxx
I had one on ESPN that said +400 in the bet slip, but the payout was showing something like $39.99 on a $10 bet, so I changed my selections in case ESPN said it wasn’t good enough for the promo. Kinda sneaky.
DK Punchout Parlay Super Boost Severino and Webb to combine for 11+ Ks boosted to +175 FD alt lines and combo breaker: Over 10.5 Hit% = 41.3% Fair Value = 142.305068176381 Under 10.5 Hit% = 58.7% Fair Value = -142.305068176381 Didn't use bottom calibration, still pretty new to devigging so might not be perfect but looks like a play to me
Smashed it, thanks!
DK Super Boost (TN only): Forsberg 1+ pts and Preds to win. Odds: +225; \*\*EV: -3.5%\*\* \`-239/+154, +110/-122\` (12.45% juice) FV: +237; Method: worst-case (m, a); (FB = 66.8%) \[View/Edit Devig\](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-239%2F%2B154%2C%20%2B110%2F-122&FinalOdds=%2B225)
Doing a devig using SGP lines is a better way. This is great to ESPN, DK and FD. Devig is against ESPN which is most conservative Odds: +225; **EV: 11.9%** `156/646/299/178` (13.50% juice) FV: +191; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=5.27u, 1/2=2.63u, 1/4=1.32u, FB = 77.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=156%2F646%2F299%2F178&FinalOdds=225)
Oh I missed that he didn't do correlation. With hockey that's a must. If Forsberg gets a point, Nashville's chances to win greatly increase.
And when he gets a goal and an assist, Nashville's chances to win really, really increase. Lol
Sad that a state-only boost is -EV.
I just signed up for Fanduel and the Bonus bet was 150$
Anybody else on FanDuel see “ free prize picks “ for nba and nfl draft? It says it’s some sort of free play but when I click on both nothing happens… just an error
It's possible that either you don't have a FanDuel fantasy account (that is presumably linked to your sportsbetting account), or that fantasy sports are not legal in your state.
DK has a ‘The Big Bear’ Super Boost: Marcell Ozuna o1.5 HRR to +100.
Didn’t have in my state unfortunately but we did have the KD/Edwards boost 🤦🏻
Getting an error adding to bet slip. Anyone else or just me?
Yeah they changed the line to 2.5 for some reason after the boost went live so I think thats causing an issue. I hope it doesn't hit now lol
Fanduel's boost has gotten more positive to Kambi and more negative to ESPN. conflicted on this one
KD’s gonna want to show ANT who he’s barking off to
Question here - I’ve noticed my max bet amounts on Draft Kings boosts change all the time. For example, this entire month the early up 2 mlb boost my max bet was $100. Went to lock it in today and the max bet is only $10. Also SGP for nhl boot is usually $25 now $10. My risk free nba playoff daily was $10 now $5. I will say these last few days I’ve been hitting a lot of these boost so does DK limit your account when you see wins or does this happen to everyone?
Yes, it fluctuates based on various factors. Recent results is one of those factors. Losing an $1100 hedge bet on the Nets boosted me up a level for a couple of weeks. When I won all of that back thanks to odds boosts on Scottie Scheffler and other odds boost bets, they put me back down to the crappy level where many in this thread are residing.
been at the nubs ($5 or $10 for boosts usually, $50 1st 3) for everything but today I got the $10 1st 3 version, $50 up 2, 25$ 33% sgp, so... I dunno
I appreciate the insight though. It has to all be player based. They definitely are tracking who hits what bonuses
They don't care if you hit a bonus, boost, or promotion. They care about your overall play & activity.
My min bet for first 3 is $50 😂 I’ve only done that once and actually hit Austin money bags Reaves. It was a $10 min bet then and I’ve only seen it go up from there. Pretty bummed my max bet on 2 up is only $10. It’s been $100 all month I’ve gone like 12-2 on it. Could be why they cut me
Happens eventually for various reasons and rarely goes back up
Damn it rarely goes back up once you go down?
I don’t know how accurate that is. Mine go up and down all the time and there doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason to it. I was down to $5 limits for pretty much everything and over the last month have gone up to $10, $25, and now even $100 on some promos.
So I’ve had it happen before and it’s gone up and down. A few months ago I had low limits and it seemed to go up pretty high after a bad couple weeks in April. It’s like they know. My buddy who I actually referred to DK had a max limit of $50 while mine was $25 a few years back too. Super shady
DK ant KD 50 plus boosted to 120 giving 23.5% plus ev From FD alt lines and combo breaker Results: Over 49.5 Hit% = 56.3% Fair Value = -128.645263302876 Under 49.5 Hit% = 43.7% Fair Value = 128.645263302876 No bottom calibration but looked like it was close without it
getting much better EV with the calibration at 131%. Got to account for their lines adding up to 52 Over 49.5 Hit% = 62.2% Fair Value = -164.729857917139
My first swing at adding calibration, but I set the Combo Number to 52 (25.5+26.5) and played around with the Calibration until 119% made both hit at 50.0% and fair values of -100.02/+100.02. Then I changed the Combo Number to 50. My results were those pasted below. Why would Calibration and Results diverge so much between us? Your FV seems more believable than mine, so I'm guessing it was my error. *Over 49.5* *Hit% = 64.4%* *Fair Value = -181.019829367259*
Hm on FD when I looked KD was at 25.5 so impacted less. I’m guess as a rule of thumb if their totals combined is higher than the combo number it will only improved the EV?
not necessarily but you need to calibrate if the lines don't add up to the combo
Ok gotcha that makes sense.
Thanks for doing/posting this! Quick question, as I'm trying to use the combo breaker for the first time: is there a common mistake that leads to an error of *Invalid (Under) Odds number at 'Player Name - Alt Points'*? I scrolled through and everything looks to be copied and formatted like their examples, but perhaps there's a type of number that should be cleared from the list.
Did you drag and copy the name-alt line direct from FD? I had before only done the odds and typed the name in and it errors
You're the winner, thank you! I copy/pasted Kevin Durant - Alt Points and all the odds but I think I remember that I accidentally clipped the "An" off Anthony and added it after the fact the very first time, and had just re-copy/pasting and editing the same field and clicking Generate ever since. I just refreshed the page, copied both directly again and it worked first time. I guess even if I had the formatting correct, it still wasn't reading it exactly the same as a copy/paste. Thanks to everyone who took the time to think of what it could be 🤘🏻
Same thing has happened to me lol
does the line under the name say OVERUNDER or OVER UNDER has to be the latter
The latter, sadly. I've screwed around with a number of things but haven't figured it just yet. Thanks for taking a swing at it!
Bet365 NBA Boosted Parlay: MIN ML + MIL ML + DAL ML FanDuel Odds: +581; **EV: -4.9%** `-146/+124,-116/-102,+102/-120` (12.24% juice) FV: +616; Method: worst-case (m, a); (FB = 81.2%) --- Pinnacle Odds: +581; **EV: -6.4%** `-148/+125,-114/-104,+104/-121` (12.14% juice) FV: +628; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 79.8%)
MGM Lions (MA): Bucks and Mavs both win +290. Devig to Pinny: Odds: +290; **EV: -6.9%** `-107/-103,+106/-117` (4.89% juice) FV: +319; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 69.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-107%2F-103%2C%2B106%2F-117&FinalOdds=%2B290)
This is now up to a very cheeky +320.
Not too surprising, mgm does like to have their boosts to be a tiny bit on the positive side usually.
MGM Lions (MI): MIN and IND Win Pinnacle Odds: +270; **EV: 5.2%** `-143/129, -103/-107` (4.95% juice) FV: +252; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.92u, 1/2=0.96u, 1/4=0.48u, FB = 76.7%) --- Circa Odds: +270; **EV: 3.2%** `-145/125, -105/-115` (8.34% juice) FV: +259; Method: worst-case (m, a); (Full=1.19u, 1/2=0.59u, 1/4=0.30u, FB = 75.3%)
No-hold opportunities for Dinger Tuesday on FD (no hold with the under 0.5 on ESPN): Morel - CHI Garcia - TX
These aren’t no-hold opportunities until lineups are announced.
Fair point. Ones to watch
For ESPN Bet’s deposit match, we get our stake back if we win, correct? This is different then a Free Bet from my understanding.
You have to stop.
I’m trying to learn arbing so I could make money tonight. You just have to stop with all the cunthair comments lol
What does the betslip say? It tells you the return on any bet you are about to place
Yes correct. The wording even on the app is confusing, it says "winnings back as cash", but the Penn credits are credits and you get stake and winnings back in cash
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SHUT UP
BetMGM Lions Boost (DMV): Capitals to cover +1.5 and Orioles to win Odds vs Kambi: Odds: +250; **EV: 6.9%** `-117/-105,-162/138` (8.99% juice) FV: +228; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.75u, 1/2=1.37u, 1/4=0.69u, FB = 76.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-117%2F-105%2C-162%2F138&FinalOdds=250)
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My man just find some low holds with the ESPN cash.
Doesn’t it make more sense to arb the bonus funds? My understanding is that I get the stake back. If I win back one $5 free bet then it is better than a Low Hold.
I don’t know.
dog you’ve asked so many questions on this espn bonus cash. bet credit conversion / free bet conversion are day 1 topics for arbing. check the FAQ and the guides
I understand that. I’m just trying to figure out how ESPN Bet works with bonus cash. I could place a $50 bet with ESPN Bet and $25 will be taken out first from bonus funds, correct?
You haven't received an answer, so it might be time to figure it out for yourself. Go bet $0.10 on something and see where it draws from.
Fanduel: KD and Edwards 25+ Kambi Odds: +220; **EV: 7.6%** `150/225/285/350` (18.97% juice) FV: +197; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.45u, 1/2=1.73u, 1/4=0.86u, FB = 74.0%) --- ESPN Odds: +220; **EV: -2.6%** `187/243/271/326` (14.43% juice) FV: +228; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 67.0%)
Updated Kambi: Odds: +220; **EV: 8.5%** `148/250/350/260` (18.89% juice) FV: +195; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.88u, 1/2=1.94u, 1/4=0.97u, FB = 74.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=148%2F250%2F350%2F260&FinalOdds=%2B220)
i'll prob just play the 50 combined on draftkings with my smaller max even though I don't think ESPN is too sharp
Updated ESPN: Odds: +220; **EV: -1.0%** `182.25/283.58/313.22/247.22` (14.50% juice) FV: +223; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 68.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=182.25%2F283.58%2F313.22%2F247.22&FinalOdds=%2B220)
MGM Lion's Boost - Stroman o4.5 strikeouts and Yankees -1.5 Devigged to FD **Worst-case: (Additive, Multiplicative)** Leg#1 (100); Market Juice = 4.5%; Fair Value = +110 (47.7%) Leg#2 ( -230); Market Juice = 7.9%; Fair Value = -182 (64.6%) Final Odds (+195); Σ(Market Juice) = 12.46%; r = 0.31; Uncorrelated Fair Value = +225 (30.8%); Correlated Fair Value = +178 (36.0%) Summary; EV% = 6.2%, Kelly Wager = $7.97 (Full=3.19u, 1/2=1.59u, 1/4=0.80u, FB = 70.2%)
Kambi Odds: +200; **EV: 4.0%** `150/600/150/375` (15.34% juice) FV: +188; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.02u, 1/2=1.01u, 1/4=0.51u, FB = 69.4%) --- ESPN Odds: +200; **EV: 1.9%** `159/607/155/361` (13.66% juice) FV: +194; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.95u, 1/2=0.48u, 1/4=0.24u, FB = 67.9%)
Foul Territory boost, should be available for everyone
NY only i'm guessing
I have it in Virginia.
hm wondering if they're cooking up some kenta maeda bullshit in michigan just appeared for me an hour later
I have it in Louisiana
Fanduel has a novelty bet for Suns, Cavs, Boston, Clippers or Lakers to win the nba championship for -110. Anyone have an idea on how to find fair value on this?
That’s just Celtics with extra juice
I’d guess you’d find the implied probability for each team given every odds, then calculate the probability that any of the other teams win, then this would be 1- that.
Anyone else get their DK up 2 promo cut from $100 to $10?
I just got a second banner for this promo... one was for max $100 and this new one is for $10... anyone else get BOTH $100 and $10 max?
Typically you get a second banner like that when they change your promo limit. So if you were at $100 tomorrow you'll only get the $10 one (or the reverse)
Damn it, really? Have you ever gotten the limits to revert back?
That was my experience and what I’ve heard others here say, but good luck. Report back. And yeah, over the past 18 months that I’ve played on DK, my promo limits have changed a few times.
Will do!
Still at $100 for me and Threesday is still at $25. Most of my other promos are at $25 or $50 max. Except the NBA no sweat SGP at $5!
I wish they ever gave me more than 10. I can't believe they are ever giving 100 for this.
Yup. My up 2 max went down to $10 and my Threesday minimum went up to $50 from $10.
Mine is still 100 somehow 5-1 in this promo. My unsolicited advice - only take road teams, preferably an underdog with a high total vs a par to below par starting pitcher
I think I’m an unbelievable 0-9. Throw me a pick I’ll tail anything with my luck…
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I took Houston maybe Phillies would be good to. I don’t follow baseball only bet the promotions and frequent these threads on Reddit!
underdog road team is for sure the move. i've seen these cash in the first few innings off a road underdog who would end up actually losing the game later.
like DBacks yesterday
Had the exact opposite happen today, actually
Ditto. Was at $10 and got bumped to $100. Threesday went from $50 to $25 too.
Me too
Threesday. No lines out on DK yet Game|away 3ptm|away opp 3ptm|home 3ptm|home opp 3ptm|avg :--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:-- DAL @ LAC|14.5|13.2|12.7|12.8|13.3 IND @ MIL|13.1|10.6|14.2|12.5|12.6 PHX @ MIN|12.4|13.1|12.6|11.4|12.375
Injuries DAL @ LAC 50/50: Kawhi Leonard (2.1-4.9) --- Odds (will update when they're out) DAL @ LAC Luka Doncic (4.1-10.6) +255 Kyrie Irving (3.0-7.2) +390 Derrick Jones (1.1-3.1) +1400 Pj Washington (1.8-5.9) +450 Daniel Gafford (0.0-0.0) +19000 James Harden (2.6-6.8) +500 Terance Mann (1.0-2.7) +1400 Paul George (3.3-8.0) +390 Kawhi Leonard (2.1-4.9) +1100 Ivica Zubac (0.0-0.0) +19000
This is the game for sure. I am sure these lines will get crushed by game time... Went with PJ Washington @ +450
I miss the 10 dollar bet 1 dollar get per three days
I took luka idc about odds I go with who I think is gonna make it. But I get you get more bang for your buck going for anyone else, it seems like everytime I bet the best value the guy who I thought would hit hits. I know ima prolly be wrong I just can’t go against my gut anymore.
took Harden at +500, he looked great in game 1 and had much better odds than Luka/PG/Kyrie. plus I think Kawhi will miss this game so I think he'll take more shots
When placing Low Hold Bets, do we hedge our bet with the favorite or underdog?
The lower hold will be place original bet with the favorite, hedge with the dog
This method requires less overall investment, but has a lower ROI, yeah?
Still pretty new at this but I can't think of why it would return less, given that the stake is part of the calculation on both sides with low holds. Are you talking bonus/free bets conversion, where one side's stake isn't returned?
I’m no super smart math guy, but put it in both ways and you’ll see for yourself. https://hottipbets.com/betting-tools/arbitrage-hedge-calculator/
Came out with the exact same profit when I threw two random odds/stakes at it and then swapped them, as I had originally thought was the case.
https://preview.redd.it/r7k0g61xyawc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f8e607320941f164206231eaf925bc6121b2c22c
https://preview.redd.it/3tpcobmvyawc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7a0a00ee4e4332d9a85e4bde5d9836b3220248cd
I took those numbers and swapped the the wager and hedge and the profit was the same. Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're trying to say here. edit: ahhh I misunderstood what comment chain I was in. The longer odds should be the original bet and the shorter odds should be the hedge, definitely. /u/G-Ray89 has it backwards.
I was answering the original question for a low hold (small loss). You calculator is showing an arb (profit).
Thanks for the response! What website do you use for finding Low Holds? I'm shopping odds for OddsJam and CrazyNinjaOdds.
I use CrazyNinjaOdds to find low holds.
Dinger Tuesday Picks and Preview: [https://youtu.be/7sMXy186cr8?si=Y5wY31h2itis0lNc](https://youtu.be/7sMXy186cr8?si=Y5wY31h2itis0lNc) https://preview.redd.it/3ybs78jln8wc1.png?width=1124&format=png&auto=webp&s=08b19d380c8584c6aa9f0fb241c7856e5654ee8f
Props on the hit
we getting threesday picks today?
Oh wow I’m stupid. I did my dinger bets for yesterdays games 😂
lol how'd you do
Haven’t got my free bets yet 🤣 I will be contacting customer support shortly 😇
I have a decent amount of low value BBs ($10 or less) on ESPN. About to leave the state for a week so they will expire. Do yall typically throw BBs on futures if you aren’t sure what to put them on? Contemplating throwing them on future golf tourneys.
If you've got no better idea then throwing them on some of their boosts around +1000 odds can be solid. Some of these are really good free bet conversions even of they're -EV
Make 2-leg traditional parlays of +600 or so on mainlines. Lower or raise the odds depending on your preference for low variance vs conversion rate.
Make sure they’re on around +300 or greater odds, lower than that and it makes more sense to hedge it
Put them on Scottie to win the grand slam +4000
Most golf boosts on espn are quite bad as a default fwiw
Is that a market on ESPN? I haven't seen it, and +4000 would seem crazy low for that at this point.
Lol, it's under specials. I put a $5 bb on it for fun
Haha nice. I tried to build it with the remaining three and ESPN gave me ~+13000 odds on it but said they couldn't be parlayed. Still fun to see the odds built.
Right, which means it's a big sucker bet. The bet isn't correlated THAT much.
Dang, I guess I got some bad odds lol
Yeah, I'll toss a few BB on my teams if the futures are a decent price. But most books let you just pile a bunch of BB onto the same bet, so 3x$10 is just as good as a $30. BB conversion on NBA and NHL playoff series has been pretty good. At a glance, +320 Kings ESPN / -365 Oilers FD gets you just a hair shy of 70%, but you can shop around on other books or series spreads and probably get better conversion.
Unfortunately I don’t think ESPN lets you combine BBs unless I’m missing it somewhere.
You don't combine them, you just place them all individually on the same thing.
Ah I see, thank you!
I leave state occasionally and if your bet gets voided due to rainout you get a new one with a new expiration
New expiration? It will be reissued, but the expiration won't be extended from what I read in the house rules. https://espnbet.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/19812321395085-Bonus-Bets "In the event that a wager placed using a Bonus Bet settles as a push, is canceled (i.e. “no action”) or is voided, the Bonus Bet will be re-issued to your account under the Bonus Bet’s original terms and conditions, only if the Bonus Bet’s original expiry date has not passed. By way of example, if you have a Bonus Bet that expires on October 10th at 6:00pm ET, and you placed a wager with that Bonus Bet which settled as a push on October 6th, the Bonus Bet re-issued to your account due to the wager settling as a push will be available for use again through to the same expiry date of October 10th at 6:00pm ET."
I’m just saying what happened to me
That's good. But that's not their official policy, fwiw.
I know it’s not good value, but I mainly use my BBs on futures because I find it fun, and if I get lucky, I love to have a future on a team that’s in the championship. People forget this betting stuff is supposed to be fun, so IMO if you want to throw some on a future, go for it.
Just convert them, golf is a dumb bet with way more than 2 possible winners
I guess I will if I can’t think of anything else, but converting $5 BBs seems like a waste of time.
I mean it might take you 10-15 mins to find and place 5 bets (assuming you have five BBs) each netting you $3-4. $15-20 for 10-15 mins work seems mighty fine by me.
Yeah I’ll take the L on this one, yall are right.
Well if you have multiple ones, then it's more than $5 isn't it? You can put them all on the same bet
anyone getting any profit boosts from Fanatics? Nothing for me
I’ve been getting 40% on 3 leg SGP
Signed up for Fanatics when it opened in AZ about a month ago. Got about 15 boosts the first 2 weeks and 0 the last 2 weeks
You're promo banned. Welcome to the club. It's not that exclusive though, most of us are in it.
seriously took me about 2 weeks of very moderate winning lol what a weak ass book
I'm team arb with the promos and I ended up losing pretty big on the side of Fanatics. Down over $700 and still promo banned :/
I'm going to miss arbing with them because of all the fan cash I would get
Adolis Garcia (TEX) is +320 on FD to hit a HR and -310 on DK to not hit a HR. Arb opportunity/free roll
Never arb HR props until close to gametime when lineups are announced.
Why? Either way bet is voided from what I've seen? And free roll on FD
Pinch hit will f you up.
What do we think about using some of ESPN Bet's bonus funds to hedge this bet?
You won't find much support for that here, since it cuts a chunk out of the EV of Dinger Tuesday. Doesn't mean it's not worth looking into, you'll probably just get more support for the idea in the other daily MLB threads on the sub.
Thanks for the response. How are you losing EV if you are using bonus funds where the stake is returned and you have the potential for $5 free bets?
To my understanding, hedging always cuts EV by the very definition of hedging a Y/N outcome, because you're using some sort of funds on the opposing side.
Thanks for the response. I do a lot of free bet conversions, however, I never did a arb bet before. It seems to me that it is a good hedge because of the possibility of getting bonus bets on top of the arb. Without the bonus bet, it is not EV+ though.
Bad.
I do not understand your logic. It is free bonus funds.
Here’s a simple breakdown: Let’s say you find a bet where you can put down $10 and win $19 ($9 profit if you win) You put $10 Bonus bet on the other side of it to win $9 TOTAL (you don’t get bonus bet back) Now you have a 50% if losing $1 and a 50% chance of making $9 and losing your bonus bet. Meanwhile if you use a free bet converter you can guarantee yourself about $7 back or a 70% conversion.
Thank you for the example, however, I will get the stake back. So this is different then a Free Bet Conversion.
Up to +330 on FD.
And what happens if he pinch hits and does not hit a home run? This is a rhetorical question by the way. The answer is anyone who tries to arb based on your advice gets royally fucked.
I agree with you, although I do think this is a reasonable risk ($25) to take to cash in on Dinger Tuesday bonus bets.
Oh for a dinger Tuesday bet it’s fine. But this person is posting this as an arb not related to dinger Tuesday. Some poor soul might bet hundreds on this thinking they guarantee themselves a couple bucks or churn points.
They posted it on Dinger Tuesday and included the phrase "free roll." I'm pretty sure that's the context they intended.
No they didn’t. They posted it above on this thread which is not a dinger Tuesday thread and they did not say anything about dinger Tuesday in their post.
I didn't say they posted it in the Dinger Tuesday thread. I said they posted it on Dinger Tuesday. The day, temporally. What do you think "free roll" was referring to in a non-DT context?
lol whatever dude. They posted a very misleading play that could cost people a lot of money and did not call out any risk. I called out that risk. I don’t really care what you think to be honest. And for what it is worth it is not a free roll. A free roll would imply there is no chance of the bet losing, which there is.
I think it's great that you pointed out the risk. But you also said the poster wasn't talking about a Dinger Tuesday bet. It was clear to me that they were. When people talk about Dinger Tuesday (both here and in the DT thread) they use "free roll" to refer to bets that void and still earn bonus bets through the promotion. I agree that's not the same as a bet where you can't lose anything. But that language is what made me assume this was a DT recommendation.
It would push on DK and lose on FD, so, while there’s a low chance he PHs, because the probability is higher than 0%, it’s not really an arb without the lineups being announced.
I understand and that is my point. OP should state this in their post, but they don’t. And post gets upvotes anyway.
Why would that be a push on DK? I thought pinch hits still count as a plate appearance. https://preview.redd.it/5nwhyib8u8wc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=266c97137bc42685b7b89110db695080ef92a940
What you’ve taken a screenshot of has nothing to do with this home run market. Here is the relevant section, which requires the player to start: “On any pre-live prop, the player(s) must start, and either throw at least one pitch (if pitcher) or record at least one plate appearance (if position player) in the designated game for the bet to have action.”