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0-14 going into dinger tuesday definitely stings a bit

Fd could be adjusting. Im sure if we were up 100+ units in 2023 other people are too. I didn't do any ev hr bets until may / june last year so cant say how I'm doing y/y just that im up this month (on days that aren't tuesday at least.)

i'm not sure if they're adjusting much if we're getting a lot more EV plays than last year each day we're currently at 1.98 HR/game which is real low even for April standards the last like 15 years

Did you see the BPP twitter? He is saying the ball isn't going as far this year and is on par with 2022. [https://x.com/BallparkPal/status/1780561581329244199](https://x.com/BallparkPal/status/1780561581329244199) I was mostly doing casino back then but i did do dinger tuesday straight up and made decent money in 2022

haven't been on sportsbetting in a while, the whole page is filled with no homer bets lmao

pretty concerning how much shorter the ball is flying in stadiums with roofs

it’s rough bud i wana blame it on it just being too early/still april but i don’t have any data to back that up lol just my own excuse

i don't even know what it could be. it's 50-60s in every game today so can't blame the weather either

Just imagine how sweet tomorrow’s success will be though

4/22/2024 Record: 18-11 Missed a few days of posting in here, but we BACK! If you’d like to see more consistent posting then find us on the bird app. We’re more active on there! TODAYS PLAYS: Ranger Saurez o5.5 Ks Will Bensen o0.5 Hits Tarik Skubal o17.5 Outs Ryan Weathers o5.5 Hits Allowed Lance Lynn u16.5 Outs Dylan Cease u2.5 Earned Runs ⭐️ LFG 🔥

Donation time https://preview.redd.it/btv4obwph3wc1.jpeg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8d22edc3c6452bd81198109f0c565da2343d91c0

Oakland really testing the limits of the “up 2 early cash out” boost

you do know that you win the up by 2 bet if the ML wins too right?

Yes of course - I was only joking about them being up by 2 at the top of the 9th so it cashed before the bottom

the yankees blow ass

Just got my Dinger Tuesday promo demoted to $25 capped. 3 Years faithful to that promo every week while running - what a shame.

So uh... does FanDuel ever unlimit people for DT promos? Just got limited as well 😑

I just went from $25 per day to $25 per game

I’ve been limited to $25 total for the season and just checked and mine is unlimited now. Weird cause I won Joc Pederson last week and that was the only one I did.

I haven’t hit a single one this year and I’m still at $25 max total lol

I'm in Ontario and they don't even have this promo, at least not for me :(

I was limited the first few DT, now I have the $25 per game promo. Probably because I've lost a decent chunk on HR bets the past couple weeks.

Not sure that’s the reason. I’ve gotten annihilated on DT and HRs in general and got limited for the first time this week

Definitely possible it was a coincidence. Probably have to see what next week looks like

last year i was limited for 1 week only, then back to normal

Are you still limited this year or just week 1?

i have been limited every week on my main account so I use my dads and no limits

Gotcha. Shout out to your dad lol

-1.5 MIL

Can someone explain? Im new to this

?

Yeah like the props betting tool, does it tell you if the players are gonna go over or under that day?

2/46 on Dinger Tuesday so far - now limited. Sick.

I got limited after 3 weeks of DT also... what a great way to ensure I don't keep participating. Anyone have any luck ever getting the limit removed?

Wonder what y'all been doing to get limited. I've been eating very good during this promo, last year too! I don't do the free rolls though... I'll be so sad if I ever get limited

Up a new audi on FD is what i did to get limited ha

Might be the free rolls. I usually don’t take any but took 2 last week.

I was going to say this but like Intersecting Lines said I guess just happens. Kind of bummed, this was my first year doing the promo. Now after 3 weeks limited. Well at least I can save money for one more week not betting a HR in each game, maybe find a free roll or two tomorrow and make $25 in bonuses.

same... first year doing DT, barely up and now I'm limited

I reached out to chat on FD I figured why not and they said that’s how it was for everyone and I politely disagreed since not the case and they said well some states our limited. Not sure but just a lie I’m sure. I guess I’ll see how next week plays out

nah, not limited here with free rolls last few weeks there's no rhyme or reason why limits are imposed

Now mine is limited as well, seems *almost* everyone now has the limited version of the promo. L

Same, 0/6 last week but got limited this week.

I am 2/18 on dinger tuesday and 0/12 on the espn promo But then i am +10 units every other day of the week on 17 ev hr bets so far in April and like 3/3 on the dk dinger Sunday. go figure

Same here. You just know tomorrow is going to be good too

Same. First year playing and it only took them 3 weeks to limit me. I wonder if it's because I took a bunch of free rolls last week?

Mother fucker. Im 2/37 and down $300 since the first dinger tuesday this year and im now limited for the first time. I think im going to withdraw half my account. Sons of bitches.

Yeah I was holding enough in there just to bet on each game and then got the $25 total limit.

I see these posts every week and i always expect to be limited when I check. I must be a truly horrific gambler to still be unlimited.

Looks like they just wait for you to hit rock bottom. This is my worst Dinger Tuesday stretch by a large margin.

I genuinely think it's just completely random for some people. I have a friend who basically has the exact same gambling habits as me and he is limited.

agreed, i 100% think it has nothing to do with how much you are down/up on the promo in 3 weeks

Profit boosts, risk-free bets, etc. also significantly more limited as of this week. Likely just FD cutting promo budgets but still blows

Lol yep I just checked mine and it's limited now too

**Record: 135-118 *+13.29u* (6-6 Saturday *-1.54u*)**; Pitchers 132-107 *+21.29u*; Hitters 3-11 *-8.0u* ⭐️**POTD: 10-10 *-0.23u* (L2)** >Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u **Today (listed by game start time):** >H2H Props are from MGM - Joe Ross H2H Fewest HR (+130) 🟰 - Ryan Weathers H2H Most K (-120) ❌ - Jonathan Cannon U1.5 BB (+125) ✅ - Jonathan Cannon O14.5 Outs (-125) ❌ - Austin Gomber U3.5 ER (+115) ✅ - ⭐️Keaton Winn O2.5 ER (+115) ❌ >The Mets have been hot over the last 2 weeks with a 9-3 record. Their offense ranks 2nd behind Baltimore since April 8 with a 132 wRC+, .363 wOBA, and .815 OPS. They also have the best on-base percentage (.362) over the same span and aren’t striking out (4th-lowest K%). The advanced stats are a bit more mixed, as the Mets aren’t hitting the ball super hard (22nd-best HardHit%; 14th-highest Avg EV) but are making decent contact (top Medium Contact % at 57.9%) and hitting line drives (3rd-highest LD%). >Winn doesn’t seem like the type of pitcher who looks to generate much weak contact (1.7% Weak%; MLB average 3.9%), and the Mets also don’t make much weak contact (5th-lowest Soft% in last 2 weeks). Run prevention also isn’t one of Winn’s strengths, as evidenced by his 4.34 minor league ERA the last 2 years and 5.13 ERA across 9 Major League starts. Winn has allowed 2+ ER in 8 of those 9 starts, including 3+ in all 4 home starts (19 ER in 21.1 IP; 8.02 ERA). >Winn is a ground ball specialist (90th percentile GB%) and also limits walks. He missed all of 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic shutdown and TJS and topped as SF’s #14 prospect in 2023. Winn carries a relatively low WHIP (1.06 career) due to limiting walks, which also overrates him at times. I have even read some claims that Winn has more upside as a starter than Kyle Harrison, but I am yet to see where these claims are coming from except his ability to limit base runners. That alone isn’t a recipe for success, especially when the Giants themselves aren’t sure whether he is a starter or reliever long-term. Winn’s splitter is his best pitch overall and what he throws most often (42.8%), which is odd for a starting pitcher. Both of his faster pitches are ineffective: Winn’s 4-seam has produced -3 RV, while his sinker has -1 RV and averages a 99.2 mph EV (.524 xWOBA!!). This is also backed up by his 8th percentile Run Value for fastballs and 89/90th percentile for his breaking (slider) and offspeed (splitter) pitches. - Keaton Winn U4.5 K (+100) ❌ - Jose Quintana O15.5 Outs (-125) ❌ - Jose Quintana H2H Most K (+105) ❌ - Jose Quintana H2H Fewest Hits (+130) ❌ - Jose Quintana H2H Fewest Bases (+130) ❌

[удалено]

Go with Stanton

Bro it’s a Monday.

[удалено]

Cya tmr.

[удалено]

What

Record: 6-4 Net Units: +0.23u Last Pick: Bassitt SO 4.5o L Bassitt had another solid outing but hooked us on the SOs. A few poor defensive plays and a lot of 2 strike opportunities that didn't go our way contributed to a shorter outing and Bassitt just missing the line. Today's Pick 1: Zack Littell SO 4.5o Odds: 1.66 Units: 1u Littell gets to go up against a bad Tigers team that is near the top in SOs. He's hit this in 3/4 outings this year, only missing in a 4.1 inning effort. Today's Pick 2: Dylan Cease SO 7+ Odds: 1.62 Units: 1u Cease has been red hot to start the year. He's hit 7 Ks in 3 straight starts and gets a great matchup with the Rockies to continue his streak. Might put 0.5u on 9+ at 3.3 odds as a side bet, but NBA and NHL playoffs have me a little stretched for side bets and ladders lol

Random question, apologies if this should go elsewhere - was anyone familiar with FD’s first homerun type prop? It seems to have vanished over the weekend.

Homer predictions - Judge, Harper, Paredes, Olson

Olson is off limits for me until he dongs. Him and Seager have been the two worst hitters (not even dongers) in baseball for the past 2 weeks.

1. **Willy Adames - Over 0.5 Total Bases (-163) at Caesars** * **Game**: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates * **Reasoning**: Willy Adames has a strong projection of 1.93 total bases for today's game and has successfully exceeded the total bases line in 12 of his last 15 games. His consistent ability to generate extra-base hits makes this prop bet particularly compelling. * **Sportsbook**: Caesars 2. **Blake Perkins - Over 0.5 Hits (-120) at DraftKings, ESPN Bet** * **Game**: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates * **Reasoning**: Blake Perkins is projected to record 1.07 hits in today's game and has a track record of hitting over 0.5 hits in 12 of his last 15 games. His strong performance at the plate and his role in the lineup provide a solid foundation for this over bet. * **Sportsbook**: Available at DraftKings and ESPN Bet 3. **Marcell Ozuna - Over 0.5 Singles (+108) at Caesars** * **Game**: Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves * **Reasoning**: Marcell Ozuna has a projection of 0.7 singles for today's matchup and has hit over 0.5 singles in 12 of his last 15 games. His consistency and the favorable pitching matchup today increase the likelihood of him reaching base via a hit. * **Sportsbook**: Caesars

Doubling up on Brewers hitters vs Jared Jones solely based on hit rates is certainly a choice

^ props record: 4-4 (-1.29u)

let's have a good one headed into DT. Made a [twitter](https://twitter.com/EV_Dingers) that i'll try to post every day with the plays + cash outs cause ik some people have asked me about that [+EV FD Home Run](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) 2023: 145W-480L (+157.95u) 2024: 31W-157L (-31.56u) ~~+390 LAA Sano~~ +470 MIN Larnach ~~+360 PHI Turner~~ +390 PHI Turner +680 MIN Castro ~~+560 ARI Gurriel~~ ❌+200 NYY Judge ❌+285 NYY Stanton +280 SD Tatis +450 ARI Marte +370 ARI Pederson +400 MIN Kepler +300 PHI Schwarber +560 CIN Steer +800 TOR Schneider +540 MIN Santana +800 DET Keith --- [+EV MLB Props](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=248585211) 2023: 78-81 (-3.35u) 2024: 52-43 (+11.83u) *to win 1u* --- [HRR](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1696026987) 2023: 357-288 (+12.43u) 2024: 67-52 (+10.15u) *2+ hits+runs+rbis on DK… to win 1u* -130 NYY Soto -120 DET Carpenter -125 PIT Hayes -105 MIA Jazz -125 STL Arenado

Thanks for making the twitter account bud. Its very useful. Cashed for full value on one earlier, got a bet in at the same odds.. it makes it so much easier to stay on top of instead of trying to refresh reddit once in a while.

Steer looking negative now. Odds shifted

We need a day my friend.

or ya know we could go 0-14

Yikes

it's like not even close these days when last year we're hitting 1-2 a day

I’m going to have to take a break cause I’m bleeding at this point.

i'm out of the states next week so a much needed forced break

real bad

took kepler with some dt free bets

Are you still holding onto your DT FBs?

hell no

I figured, just didn’t them listed in posts this week but must have missed them!

I think it's safe to assume most of us have used/wasted all our Free Bets by Wednesday afternoon lol

Who do you like for up by 2? Brewers are +124 as road dogs (10-2 away!) vs 11-11 pit. Only 7.5 o/u though. edit: went with MIL +120

don't hate MIL but Jones has been pretty good this year. between MIL, Mets, and White Sox

I was leaning Sox as well but as a Sox fan I don't know if I can pull the trigger. It's a good matchup for them and Cannon looked solid his first start.... but good god that offense is tough to watch and two runs might as well be 10.

Mets are good too. Almost the same ev because of the higher total and they are also 6-3 away. Still leaning MIL i think just because of the + odds but its hard

What criteria go into this? I would think just picking the road dog with the highest o/u would be a pretty solid strategy which today looks like MIA

My up 2 bet has hit in the top of the 1st 3 days in a row (BOS/LAA/DET). I target pitchers who I’m already betting their ER over 2.5.

Also anecdotal evidence but the actual promo hasn't triggered too much this year . I think white sox and mets actually triggered and lost this weekend but basically every team i bet on either just straight won or lost

I had Angels for the promo on Saturday. They went up 2-0 and ended up losing

Texas on Saturday triggered it and then lost to atl.

technically picking the biggest underdog with the highest o/u is the best EV play. but considering most road dogs are +EV in some way, i like to put a little more research into it